In a brief respite in between crises, President Barack Obama paid tribute to a young University of Kentucky men’s basketball team for winning the NCAA championship last month. He admits Kentucky wasn’t the team he had picked to win.
** QUICK HITS. Governor Jerry Brown has paid no money to consultants for his November revenue initiative. In contrast, heiress Molly Munger is spending over $100,000 a month on consultants for her zombie income tax hike for nearly all initiative. Some pretty big names, too. Who I am absolutely sure know better. But if they tell her she doesn’t know what she’s doing, they ain’t getting those big bucks. … Hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, an effective co-chair with Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Shultz of the successful campaign to defeat the 2010 initiative to stop California’s landmark climate change program, had his organization pushing a November initiative to eliminate a billion dollar corporate tax break in favor of help for green energy and the state budget deficit go ahead and turn in nearly a million signatures today. The complex tax break, which benefits companies which do not create jobs in California, was adopted as part of the 2009 budget deal which enacted temporary tax hikes. … Brown is said to prefer that Steyer not go ahead with the initiative, fearing ballot clutter on fiscal measures. I don’t know if that is so or not, but if that is Brown’s opinion, I don’t agree with it.
** THE CURIOUS CHEN CRISIS SPOTLIGHTS OUR BIG CHINA CONUNDRUM.As if he didn’t have enough geopolitical crises already.
President Barack Obama got a complicated new crisis to manage this week, this one in China, where blind dissident icon Chen Guancheng — who, somehow, escaped house arrest in his village and made his way hundreds of miles to the U.S. embassy, where he received temporary sanctuary — “voluntarily” left the embassy and returned to Chinese soil.
With supposed new safeguards for his freedom, it was hailed as a diplomatic success by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Then Chen said that he had been coerced to leave the U.S. embassy by Chinese government threats to incarcerate his wife. Or even kill her.
Then the activist reached out to Republicans in Congress, seeking to come to the U.S. on Hillary’s plane when it leaves China. Clinton was there to work on bilateral relations with the Middle Kingdom, which already theatened a turn for the worse. Later, a resolution of sorts seems to have been achieved, in which Chen, joined by his family, will come to America “temporarily” as a new fellow of New York University.
The whole thing is very odd. How did Chen, who is blind, escape through layers of custody and get to and gain entrance to the U.S. embassy in the first place? Was he allowed to do so to create a crisis in the midst of high-level U.S./China negotiations? If so, why? If not, well, perhaps it’s just an odd confluence of events.
It all highlights what a conundrum that leaders from Washington to California face in dealing with the challenges and opportunities presented by a clearly ascending and not very well understood China.
Whatever is really going on with Chen, it could hardly have been less opportune, with Clinton and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in Beijing to try to work out better economic and financial arrangements with the fast-rising power, as well as try to coordinate efforts on the crises with North Korea, Iran, and Syria.
In the midst of it all, we of course have reflexive super-hawk Mitt Romney — who toughed out the Vietnam War, which he strongly advocated, as a Mormon missionary in France — saying Obama is weak and he would be tougher with China, whatever that means. Which is quite ironic, since Romney made his incredible fortune in the leveraged buyout business, a business in which I don’t believe he ever went out of his way to alienate his lenders.
For the U.S. and China have a symbiotic economic relationship. We provide China with markets for their hyperactive export sector. China provides us with debt financing.
But China is on the rise, while the U.S., having made some massive mistakes, is struggling to hold on to its post-World War II and post-Cold War preeminence.
Yet China has big problems of its own, not the least of which is a huge and increasingly restive population which wants to share in a revolution of rising material expectations and chafes at the authoritarianism of one of the world’s last Communist governments. China’s government has reacted with alarm to the Arab Awakening, probably fearing such an awakening among its own people, as a result joining Russia, which also cracks down on internal dissent, in opposing widespread international moves to support human rights and democracy. …
The unemployment rate dipped again last month, to 8.1%, but job growth was lower than hoped.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama then held a roundtable discussion with a group of high school seniors and their parents at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington, Virginia.
Obama then delivered remarks about the importance of having the opportunity for affordable higher education, also at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama welcomes the University of Kentucky men’s basketball team to the White House Rose Garden.
The Kentucky Wildcats are this year’s national collegiate champions.
It’s a game that Obama played himself, on Hawaii’s state high school basketball championship team and at Occidental College in California, which he attended before transferring to Columbia University in New York.
Obama got some mixed news today on the economy.
While the unemployment rate dipped again, this time to 8.1%, job growth was somewhat lower than expected.
Still the economy continues to grow, despite continued slashing of government jobs.
But there is little margin for error, which is why geopolitical crises are so important.
That said, crude oil is sliding today in global markets.
That is because an Israeli military strike against Iran looks less likely amidst all the sudden open opposition from key members of the security apparat.
And Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is talking about an early election this year, while his coalition still has an edge despite economic woes. That may militate against military action as well.
Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng, who fled house arrest and made his ways hundreds of miles to the US embassy just as high-level US/China negotiations were about to begin, will now apparently be allowed to take his family to study in the US as a fellow at New York University.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown has left the state.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
With Brown’s November revenue initiative wrapping up the signature phase of its campaign, as he noted in remarks yesterday in Silicon Valley, California Republican Party leaders kicked off what they say will be a “whistle-stop” campaign against the ballot measure at the Capitol. State GOP Chairman Tom DelBeccaro, Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, and Assembly Minority Leader Connie Huff, defensively dubbing themselves the “Party of Yes” rather than the Party of No, urged a no vote but did not lay out a campaign plan for the cash-strapped party.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
In a small film you may have heard of called The Avengers, Tony Stark aka Iron Man (played by Jerry Brown friend Robert Downey, Jr.), spars with Loki (played by some clever Brit). The film, which has already taken in over $300 million in various international markets, opens across North America today.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $98 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Papers released today from Osama bin Laden’s hideaway in Pakistan, seized a year ago in the Navy SEAL raid, paint a picture of Al Qaeda’s leader deeply concerned about the state of his movement and its allies and determined both to reboot and to stage another spectacular attack on America.
** QUICK HITS. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suddenly has a real hot potato on her hands with the Chen Guangcheng situation, discussed here yesterday. Now the blind activist is reaching out to Republicans in Congress seeking to come to the US, on Hillary’s plane when it leaves China. She’s there to work on bilateral relations with the Middle Kingdom, which are on the verge of taking a turn for the worse. … With Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative wrapping up the signature phase of its campaign, California Republican Party leaders kicked off what they say will be a “whistle-stop” campaign against the ballot measure today at the Capitol. State GOP Chairman Tom DelBeccaro, Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, and Assembly Minority Leader Connie Huff, defensively dubbing themselves the “Party of Yes” rather than the Party of No, urged a no vote but did not lay out a campaign plan for the cash-strapped party.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE SUDDEN IMPACT CHEN CRISIS HIGHLIGHTS THE CHINA CONUNDRUM.
** NEW SURVEY: JOB CREATION UP, DESPITE GOVERNMENT CUTS. A new Gallup Poll survey indicates that US job creation is near a four-year high.
Despite continued declines in public sector employment.
Even the West, which has been a trailing region for the past few years, is looking significantly better.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index increased to +20 in April from +18 in March. Net new hiring is now at its best level since July 2008 and is near +26 — the highest score Gallup has recorded since tracking began in January 2008. …
The April Job Creation Index of +20 is based on 36% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring workers and expanding the size of their workforce, and 16% saying their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of their workforce. This is similar to March, when 35% of workers reported workforce expansion at their place of work, while 17% reported workforce reduction.
The current 36% “hiring” figure is the highest since August 2008, and the current 16% “letting go” figure is the lowest since July of that year. …
Regionally, job creation is best in the South, with an April Job Creation Index of +23, surpassing the Midwest at +21. The index is +18 in the West and +16 in the East. …
While private-sector workers report better levels of hiring, with a Job Creation Index of +25 in April, government employees are reporting more firing than hiring, with an index score of -7.
Job creation has been in negative territory in all areas of government since late 2011, though the federal government has recently been the most negative. In April, job creation was at -16 as reported by federal government employees, compared with -3 at state governments and -1 at local governments. …
Chen Guangcheng, the blind Chinese activist, now says he wants to leave for the US rather than stay in China, throwing into grave doubt a deal used to coax him out of the US embassy in Beijing and defuse an impasse that has strained China-US ties even as he says he feels abandoned by US officials. Chen, a self-taught legal activist, is under Chinese control in a Beijing hospital, having left the embassy on Wednesday.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE SUDDEN CHEN CRISIS HIGHLIGHTS THE CHINA CONUNDRUM.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
At 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 11 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a Cinco de Mayo Reception in the Rose Garden.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.
At 3:35 PM, Brown speaks at the Bay Area Council’s 2012 Outlook Conference at the California Theater in San Jose.
The coalition backing Brown’s November revenue appears ready to turn in its signatures after a whirlwind month-and-a-half qualification drive.
In its latest odd move, heiress Molly Munger’s income tax hike for all education initiative turned in some of its signatures yesterday in Los Angeles. And promises to turn in the rest, ah, elsewhere, sometime in the next week.
Brown is joined today at the annual Bay Area Council Outlook Conference by his 1992 presidential rival, former President Bill Clinton.
That reminds me that the 20th anniversary of Brown’s last presidential campaign is just about upon us. Which will lead to a very interesting and fun piece.
Former Secretary of State Condi Rice, another old acquaintance, from the days when she served on an advisory board of Senator Gary Hart’s think tank during his second presidential campaign, also speaks at the conference.
President Barack Obama spoke to a national and global audience late Tuesday during his surprise visit to Afghanistan around the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL raid inside Pakistan that took down Osama bin Laden..
** SEALED UP, BUT NOT SEALED OVER: THE OSAMA BIN LADEN RAID AT 1. … From my May 1st essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $69 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The Taliban struck Kabul today in the immediate aftermath of President Barack Obama’s surprise visit to Afghanistan.
** QUICK HITS. In its latest odd move, heiress Molly Munger’s income tax hike for all education initiative turned in some of its signatures today in Los Angeles. And promises to turn in the rest, ah, elsewhere, sometime in the next week. Keep us posted on that. … Munger’s initiative trails badly in all polls, despite some spin efforts claiming the contrary that make up in persistence for what they lack in intelligence. … Governor Jerry Brown, whose November revenue initiative leads in all polls, even the recent PPIC poll which gives the same result for a revamped measure made more popular in other polls, speaks tomorrow at the annual Bay Area Council Outlook Conference. As does his 1992 presidential rival, former President Bill Clinton. … That reminds me that the 20th anniversary of Brown’s last presidential campaign is just about upon us. Which will lead to a very interesting and fun piece. … Former Secretary of State Condi Rice, another old acquaintance, from the days when she served on an advisory board of Gary Hart’s think tank, also speaks at the conference.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Afghanistan and Washington.
Obama left Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan very early this morning on Air Force One en route Joint Base Andrews, where he arrived late this morning East Coast time.
He then boarded Marine One and flew to the White House.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
Obama pulled off a surprise visit to Afghanistan yesterday.
Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai signed an agreement aimed at cementing a lasting but very limited U.S. commitment to Afghanistan after the long and unpopular war comes to an end. The Afghans appear to have gotten most of what they wanted in gaining control over U.S. operations.
Look for an ongoing but vastly scaled down presence after 2014, with US personnel in a support and training role only.
Unless the Karzai government collapses relatively quickly.
The Taliban struck inside the capital city Kabul only hours after Obama and Karzai concluded their deal. Seven people were killed in the “Green Village” of international workers not far from the presidential palace. Schools were shut down today.
Obama also has a complicated crisis to manage in China, where over the weekend blind dissident icon Chen Guancheng — who escaped informal house arrest in his village and made his way to the US embassy, where he received temporary sanctuary — “voluntarily” left the embassy and returned to Chinese soil.
It was hailed as a diplomatic success by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, slated already for days of talks with top Chinese officials, and those same officials.
Then Chen said that he had been coerced to leave the US embassy by Chinese government threats to incarcerate his wife. Or even kill her.
How did Chen, who is blind, escape custody and get to and gain entrance to the US embassy in the first place?
Is there a plan of some sort here? Or is this just a comedy of errors sort of crisis?
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich ended his presidential campaign today. He had planned to make the announcement yesterday, but realized that he would be totally lost in the shuffle of the first anniversary of the bin Laden raid, which some see as being today. It was May 2 in Pakistan when bin Laden was killed, though the raid began the previous day. And it was always May 1 in the US during the whole of the raid.
Gingrich had previously pulled back from his campaign, as discussed here, but kept a semblance of it going to try to take part in the campaign dialogue.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, appearing this morning in Arlington, Virginia, formally suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
But that didn’t work very well. And now, with Rick Santorum out, that Mitt Romney is the de facto GOP nominee, there’s little sense continuing in any guise. Though that doesn’t seem to bother Ron Paul.
Gingrich has only “suspended” his campaign, because he needs to keep raising money to pay off big campaign debts.
Gingrich, like Santorum, did not endorse Romney.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** MAD MEN: TO THE MOON! (AND CRASHING BACK AGAIN).Somewhere, Conrad Hilton is saying he always thought Don Draper should listen to his wife. He always wanted the Moon, that ultimate symbol of Space Age striving in the ’60s, from Don, and he didn’t get it, which is why he dumped him at the end of Season 3. But Megan’s brainstorm, which merely saves the day with Heinz, all primed to fire the agency after Peggy Olson’s gaffes, finally delivers it. For Heinz, though, not Hilton.
“There’s something happening here / What it is ain’t exactly clear …”
As always, there be some spoilers ahead. Incidentally, you can see all my Mad Men pieces, going back to 2009, here in The Mad Men File.
Since Don and Megan actually seem to talk — she knows he is Dick Whitman and isn’t thrown in the least by it — she probably knows about the unrealized Hilton Moon shot ad that eliminated Don’s most important client by far.
After a few weeks of episodes dominated by stagey set pieces driven by forced plotting, entertaining though it was, which was perhaps prompted by complaints that not enough happens on the show, Mad Men is back to its more customary approach of organic storytelling.
Three young women, in one case, extremely young, get (most of) what they think they want. But it doesn’t suffice. Not by a long shot. Each excitedly sees the stars in this episode, only to be drawn back, as ever, to a dour world view.
Oh, and Don Draper learns about the hypocrisy of big New York corporations. That might be significant, in the early fall of 1966. …
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.
It’s JB meets JB, and the debut of First Dog Sutter Brown at a press conference.
At 2:30 PM, Brown joins actor Pierce Brosnan, star of four James Bond films in the ’90s and early Naughties, Dog Whisperer Cesar Millan, and California First Dog Sutter Brown at an event at Petco in the Westwood area of LA to promote public support for the California Pet Lover’s License Plate. The California Pet Lover’s License Plate provides a funding source for free and low-cost spay and neuter programs.
At 4 PM, Brown appears at the Milken Institute 2012 Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel California’s attraction to out of state venture capital and other investing in innovation-oriented businesses.
The California state budget looks like it’s running about $3 billion below projections. But of course there’s no need for those cuts that Brown has been pushing since January.
Maybe Facebook’s IPO in mid-May will save the day. But that’s a one-time windfall.
** SEALED UP, BUT NOT SEALED OVER: THE OSAMA BIN LADEN RAID AT 1.It’s a year since the daring Navy SEAL raid that took down Osama bin Laden. (The Al Qaeda leader was killed around 1 a.m. on May 2 in Pakistan, but it was mid-day to early afternoon on May 1 in the U.S.)
It was a triumph of American arms, satisfying retribution for al Qaeda’s attacks on New York and Washington, and a major blow to the global jihadist network. But it points up the many mistakes we’ve made and continue to make in the wake of 9/11, and reminds that even the surgical use of military force provides only part of a solution. …
** BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE? JERRY BROWN BRINGS AN INCOMPLETE STORY.Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington for a round of meetings and appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table, along with General David Petraeus, the Iraq War and Afghan War commander-turned-CIA director, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Oscar-winning actress Reese Witherspoon.
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this particular incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this is his second trip of the year to Washington. He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference. … From my April 28th essay.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY). … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $106 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $8 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai today signed an agreement aimed at cementing a lasting but very limited U.S. commitment to Afghanistan after the long and unpopular war comes to an end. The Afghans appear to have gotten most of what they wanted in gaining control over U.S. operations.
** QUICK HITS. On a sudden trip to Afghanistan just before the one-year anniversary of the Navy SEAL raid that took down Osama bin Laden, President Barack Obama met with the troops, addressed the world, and signed a deal with President Hamid Karzai to “fulfill our mission in Afghanistan.” Which means an ongoing but vastly scaled down presence after 2014. … The California state budget looks like it’s running about $3 billion below projections. But of course there’s no need for those cuts that Governor Jerry Brown has been pushing since January … Maybe Facebook’s IPO in mid-May will save the day. But that’s a one-time windfall. …
** SEALED UP, BUT NOT SEALED OVER: THE OSAMA BIN LADEN RAID AT 1.It’s a year since the daring Navy SEAL raid that took down Osama bin Laden. (The Al Qaeda leader was killed around 1 a.m. on May 2 in Pakistan, but it was mid-day to early afternoon on May 1 in the U.S.)
It was a triumph of American arms, satisfying retribution for al Qaeda’s attacks on New York and Washington, and a major blow to the global jihadist network. But it points up the many mistakes we’ve made and continue to make in the wake of 9/11, and reminds that even the surgical use of military force provides only part of a solution. …
At 4:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama makes a major address from Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. At 2:30 PM Pacific, he addresses a rally of US troops at the base. The events will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
** LIVE FROM AFGHANISTAN.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
Under intense security and the cover of night, President Barack Obama slipped into Afghanistan on Tuesday to sign an agreement cementing a U.S. commitment to the nation after the long and unpopular war comes to an end.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: TO THE MOON! (AND CRASHING BACK AGAIN).
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Afghanistan.
Obama pulled off a surprise visit to Afghanistan today.
At 4:30 PM Pacific, Obama will make a major address from Bagram Air Base outside Kabul.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
Obama even went so far as to put out a dummy schedule.
Here it is, in original form, minus various movement instructions. (All times are East Coast.)
10:30 AM
The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing
Oval Office
Closed Press
11:00 AM
The President meets with senior advisors
Oval Office
Closed Press
3:00 PM
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney
4:30 PM
The President and the Vice President meet with Secretary of Defense Panetta
Oval Office
The original block schedule for his week, as you can see from “The Week Ahead” below, had him in private meetings in the White House on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Thursday, he is due back in Washington for Cinco de Mayo celebrations, but we’ll see where he goes next.
Cinco de Mayo is not actually until Saturday.
A special investigative committee of the British Parliament today released a report saying that media magnate Rupert Murdoch is unfit to lead News Corp in the UK, finding him responsible for what they called a culture of illegal phone hacking. Murdoch also owns Fox News in the US, along with other media properties.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
** BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE? JERRY BROWN BRINGS AN INCOMPLETE STORY.Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington for a round of meetings and appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table, along with General David Petraeus, the Iraq War and Afghan War commander-turned-CIA director, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Oscar-winning actress Reese Witherspoon.
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this particular incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this is his second trip of the year to Washington. He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference.
It’s also a good opportunity to articulate what he’s doing as governor of California, in an historic third term, to a national and international audience. California is safe territory for Barack Obama’s re-election, but an important proving ground for new energy and transportation initiatives. … From my April 28th essay.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $106 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $8 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barama Obama discusses a new executive order to crack down on those who defraud military veterans and service members pursuing higher education.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: BODIES AT REST and MAD MEN: “AT THE CODFISH BALL.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia this weekend.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
On Saturday at 5 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama attend the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton. Obama, who will no doubt be roasted by comedian Jimmy Kimmel, will deliver remarks.
On Sunday at 3 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence in Virginia.
On Sunday at 4:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a second fundraiser at a private residence in Virginia.
Former President Bill Clinton joins Obama at both events.
Here’s what Obama’s week ahead looks like, at least in public. There are plenty of holes in it for dealing with geopolitical crises and responding to political exigencies.
On Monday morning, Obama will deliver remarks at the Building and Construction Trades Department Legislative Conference in Washington. In the afternoon, Obama will welcome Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of Japan to the White House. The two leaders will discuss the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance as Obama shifts geostrategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. They will also discuss trade, finance, and various security concerns.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Thursday, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a Cinco de Mayo reception at the White House.
On Friday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Saturday, Obama will travel to Columbus, Ohio and Richmond, Virginia, both swing states, for campaign events.
More signs of a rift at the top of Israel’s military and intelligence hierarchy with regard to the Iran crisis emerged on Friday. On Wednesday, as discussed here, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces said he thinks that Iranian leaders are “rational” and will not choose to make nuclear weapons. On Friday the most recent former head of Shin Bet, Israel’s counter-intelligence and security service, Yuval Diskin, said that he has no confidence in Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, calling their decisions “based on messianic feelings.”
Iran, incidentally, says again it is willing to “compromise” on its nuclear program, which is putting it closer and closer to becoming nuclear weapons capable, which is not the same as yet producing a nuclear weapon. But there are no specifics.
The Obama Administration, however, may have some, potentially allowing continued limited uranium enrichment, far below the level needed to construct a nuclear weapon, in exchange for unrestricted inspections.
Former President Bill Clinton, who has begun appearing at fundraisers with President Barack Obama, an antagonist of four years ago, appears in this campaign video praising Obama for the take-down of Osama bin Laden. The first anniversary of the Navy SEAL raid on Abbottabad, Pakistan is on May 2nd. Mitt Romney criticized Obama during Obama’s first campaign for advocating anti-Al Qaeda raids inside Pakistan and derided the hunt for bin Laden as a mistake.
More negotiations between Iran and several international powers will take place the third week of May. Iran had wanted the talks to happen in Baghdad, where it would have something of a home court advantage in now very friendly Iraq. But the talks will take place in Vienna, which is home to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog agency which seeks more meaningful access to Iran’s program.
Meanwhile, the US is quietly putting together a major armada of land-based fighter aircraft in the Middle East to complement the build-up of Navy aircraft carrier forces. The build-up of F-22 stealth fighters and conventional but high-performance F-15 air superiority fighters, based in Gulf Arab states, is only necessary as a counter to an adversary with jet fighter capability. Such planes were not needed during the Iraq War because Saddam Hussein had no air force to speak of. Iran does.
With the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden coming up on May 2nd, Pakistan on Friday deported his family to Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden’s three wives and 14 children and grand-children, all of whom somehow escaped detection for years, were flown to the Red Sea Saudi city of Jeddah.
Even as that took place, talks were underway between US AfPak special envoy Marc Grossman and top Pakistani leaders to try to get US/Pakistani relations back on an even keel.
The talks did not succeed.
Pakistan is still refusing to allow US and NATO supplies to transit Pakistan, as they long had. That’s because the US refuses to apologize at the highest level for air strikes which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at an outpost along the AfPak border in November.
The US might have relented, even in a hyper-partisan election year, but the brazen Taliban attacks on Kabul of April 15th made that very difficult. Why? Because they probably originated from Pakistan, where Taliban and Taliban allies make their bases.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE? JERRY BROWN BRINGS AN INCOMPLETE STORY.Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington for a round of meetings and appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table, along with General David Petraeus, the Iraq War and Afghan War commander-turned-CIA director, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Oscar-winning actress Reese Witherspoon.
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this particular incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this is his second trip of the year to Washington. He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference.
It’s also a good opportunity to articulate what he’s doing as governor of California, in an historic third term, to a national and international audience. California is safe territory for Barack Obama’s re-election, but an important proving ground for new energy and transportation initiatives.
What will he say? I can certainly guess, but we know what Brown, twice runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, is saying when he says it. …
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington, DC.
He is holding private meetings.
On Saturday, he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will attend the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The Avengers, which opens across North America on May 4th, is tracking in the vicinity of record box office for an opening weekend. The film, which stars Uma Thurman, Ralph Fiennes, and Sir Sean Connery … wait, is this the right trailer?
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $104.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $71 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $9 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Under the reworked security deal reached with Japan, the US will redeploy nearly 10,000 Marines from the southern Japanese island of Okinawa to other locations in the Asia Pacific region. In part, it is resolution of longstanding Japanese complaint against a too large US presence, and in part a play to the new US geostrategic focus on the region.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … JERRY BROWN BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE and NEWTONIAN MOTION: BODIES AT REST and MAD MEN: “AT THE CODFISH BALL.”
** QUICK HITS. More signs of a rift at the top of Israel’s military and intelligence hierarchy with regard to the Iran crisis. On Wednesday, as discussed here, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces said he thinks that Iranian leaders are “rational” and will not choose to make nuclear weapons. Today the most recent former head of Shin Bet, Israel’s counter-intelligence and security service, Yuval Diskin, said that he has no confidence in Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, calling their decisions “based on messianic feelings.” … Iran, incidentally, says again it is willing to “compromise” on its nuclear program, which is putting it closer and closer to becoming nuclear weapons capable, which is not the same as yet producing a nuclear weapon. But there are no specifics. … Meanwhile, the US is quietly putting together a major armada of land-based fighter aircraft in the Middle East to complement the build-up of Navy aircraft carrier forces. The build-up of F-22 stealth fighters and conventional but high-performance F-15 air superiority fighters, based in Gulf Arab states, is only necessary as a counter to an adversary with jet fighter capability. Such planes were not needed during the Iraq War because Saddam Hussein had no air force to speak of. Iran does. … With the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden coming up on May 2nd, Pakistan today deported his family to Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden’s three wives and 14 children and grand-children, all of whom somehow escaped detection for years, have been flow to the Red Sea Saudi city of Jeddah.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Georgia.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He and First Lady Michelle Obama then departed the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, where they boarded Air Force One and flew to Fort Stewart, outside Hinesville, Georgia.
Obama then delivered remarks to troops, veterans and military families, following introductory remarks by the first lady, outside the headquarters of the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division.
At 11:05 AM Pacific, Obama departs Georgia on Air Force en route Washington, DC.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at the Washington Convention Center.
At 3:10 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at a private residence.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck went first in Thursday evening’s first round of the NFL draft. He’s the fourth Stanford quarterback to be the first pick in the first round. Luck, a two-time runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, goes to the now Peyton Manning-free Indianapolis Colts. Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, the gun-slinging world class track star, went second, to the Washington Redskins, where I expect him to become the toast of the nation’s capital.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington, DC.
He is holding private meetings.
On Saturday, he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will attend the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A UFO (Unusual Flying Object) has been sighted all around New York City’s airspace today. It’s the Space Shuttle Enterprise, riding on top of a modified jumbo jet. The shuttle prototype was brought from Washington to New York, heading to a museum there.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $105 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $71 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $9 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
News Corp mogul and Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch, testifying in London, admits a corporate cover-up but claims he was misled over the phone hacking scandal that has been growing and shaking his media empire for the past year.
** JERRY-RIGGING: WITH PLANS IN THE AIR, OFF TO WASHINGTON. Governor Jerry Brown is off to Washington for a round of meetings and weekend appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where I believe he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table. (Along with General David Petraeus and actress Reese Witherspoon.)
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this will be his second trip of the year to Washington.
He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference.
It will also be a good opportunity to articulate what he’s doing as governor of California to a national and international audience.
Brown did appear on NBC’s Meet the Press in February, but with the governors association in town, unavoidably ended up being paired opposite controversial Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
While Brown prepares to fly the Bear Flag in the Beltway, he does so after releasing some big new plans this week, notably in regard to downsizing the state prison system and rightsizing energy consumption in state buildings.
Brown’s prison plan would cut general fund spending from 11.1% of the total to 7.5%. It would also cut $4.1 billion in authorized bond spending for prison construction, saving $2.2 billion in operating costs and debt service.
The moves are being made not only to cut costs in California’s still strapped state budget, but to meet federal court demands to reduce over-crowding.
– By 2020, 50 percent of al l new state buildings will be zero net energy facilities — that means they will be carbon neutral. By 2025, all new state buildings will need to hit the zero net mark.
– By 2018, all state facilities will have to reduce the power they buy off the grid — that is from utilities — by 20 percent compared to a 2003 baseline. Non-building related energy purchases will also have to cut 20 percent from 2003.
– All state agencies will need to take actions to cut their greenhouse gas emissions at least 10 percent by 2015 and 20 percent by 2020, compared to a 2010 baseline.
– Any proposed new state building or major renovation of existing facilities larger than 10,000 square feet will need to generate its power onsite using solar photovoltaic, solar thermal or wind power generation, along with clean back-up power supplies, if economically feasible.
– Any new state buildings, major renovations to existing facilties or build-to-suit leases larger than 10,000 square feet will have to obtain LEED Silver certification or higher.
Meanwhile, Brown and his forces keep pushing on his compromise November revenue initiative, steaming toward qualification.
Brown, as readers know, was prompted to join forces with a left/labor coalition pushing a steeply progressive “millionaire’s tax.” As a result, his ballot initiative got more progressive in terms of the impact on income taxes and reduced the amount of revenue coming from what is now only a quarter-cent sales tax.
At 64% support, it looks very good for Brown and allies. And major institutional opposition is not emerging so far.
Now there is a new Public Policy Institute of California poll (which was actually taken during the first week of April) showing only 54% support for the initiative, with 39% opposed. The problem isn’t with higher taxes on the wealthy, it’s with a sales tax hike for all.
However, this poll poses the question on Brown’s initiative using a question leading with the same formal title and summary it used before, when it got essentially the same results.
This poll is not a problem for Brown’s initiative. But other initiatives moving on to the ballot — by which I do not mean heiress Molly Munger’s zombie tax hike (opposed by nearly 60% in this latest poll, as in other polling) — may be problematic.
Initiatives to abolish the death penalty and alter the state’s three-strikes and you’re out sentencing law will challenge Brown’s ability to stay focused on his measure.
** NEW POLL: HUGE LEAD FOR OBAMA WITH YOUNG VOTERS, BUT TURNOUT IS THE KEY. A new Gallup Poll survey shows that voters aged 18 to 29 give President Barack Obama a huge edge over his presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
But the trick will be getting them to turn out.
Which explains Obama’s big push over the past week on college loans.
Obama leads Romney among voters aged 18 to 29 by a whopping 64% to 29%.
Obama actually leads in all age groups up to the age of 65, at which point Romney takes a significant lead.
Here are the numbers:
18-29: Obama, 64-29.
30-49: Obama, 49-44.
50-64: Obama 48-44.
65-on: Romney, 52-40.
President Obama this week made an explicit effort to shore up his support among young voters, embarking on a “college tour” of campuses in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama called on Congress to pass legislation that would keep the interest rates on student loans from doubling this summer, as they are scheduled to do under current law. Romney, in a rare instance of agreement with Obama, also came out in support of Congress’ taking this action, marking his own effort to gain support among the youth vote.
It’s clear at this point that Obama maintains the decisive edge when young voters are asked whom they support for president, as he did in 2008. Voters aged 18 to 29 in Gallup’s most recent five-day average, April 20-24, support Obama over Romney by 35 percentage points, 64% to 29%, and — compared with older age groups — have been disproportionately supportive of Obama since Gallup’s tracking began on April 11, albeit by differing margins. Obama’s lead is five and four percentage points, respectively, among those 30 to 49 and 50 to 64, while Romney leads by 12 points among those 65 and older. Overall, for the April 20-24 five-day period, Obama leads by six points, 49% to 43%.
The practical value of Obama’s broad support among young voters is lessened by the fact that only six in 10 of these voters say they are registered to vote, and that fewer than six in 10 who are registered say they will definitely vote in November’s election. By way of contrast, Romney’s relatively strong support among voters 65 and older is more politically potent; these older voters are well above average in their voter registration percentage, and are most likely of any age group to say they will definitely vote in November’s election. …
Vice President Joe Biden today, citing the success in Libya and other issues, has issued a strong defense of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy record and suggested that Republican Mitt Romney doesn’t understand the role of contemporary commander in chief.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Vice President Joe Biden in the Oval Office.
Obama completed a multi-state tour focusing on college assistance issues yesterday afternoon.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and en route to Washington, DC.
Last night, he spoke at the U.S. Green Building Council Reception at the EPA Building in Sacramento.
At 10:30 AM, Brown speaks at a press conference at the Cathedral of the Blessed Sacramento in Sacramento hosted by PICO California as they announce their “Land of Opportunity” initiative to mobilize voters to vote their values and shape the future of California. He will be joined by some 200 multi-faith clergy leaders at the event.
Later today, Brown travels to Washington to attend this Saturday’s White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
To that phrase, for the latest episode of Mad Men, add trippy-wippy.
The episode shifts through time and perspective, like, oh, say, Pulp Fiction, and only one of the three stories in (not so) “Far Away Places” centers on an LSD trip.
The hairpin plot twists so evident in last week’s episode continue in this one, as does the sense of suddenly (seemingly?) impending doom. …
From my April 24th essay.
Hundreds of schools in Afghanistan’s Ghazni province, a major center between Kabul and Kandahar, have been forced to close because of threats from the Taliban.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Addressing a boisterous crowd of students at the University of Iowa, President Barack Obama continued his push for improvements in student aid.
** QUICK HITS.General Benny Gantz, chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces, said today that he thinks Iran’s leaders are “very rational” and are unlikely to produce nuclear weapons. This seems to fly in the face of what the country’s current political leadership is saying. … Acceding to the inevitable, Newt Gingrich will effectively end his presidential campaign next Tuesday. He had already pulled back substantially, as previously discussed. I’ll have a “Newtonian Motion” piece coming up. … Governor Jerry Brown released another big plan in a key issue area, following on Monday’s release of a plan to cut billions from California’s corrections budget and eliminate thousands of positions. … Today saw Brown establish expansive new goals to “green” state-owned buildings, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, developing new energy efficiencies in design and practice, and establishing more on-site generation of green energy. … I’ll get into both these developments, and more tomorrow in a “Jerry-Rigging” piece. …
** NEW SURVEY: A BIG DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN OBAMA AND ROMNEY — RELIGIOSITY. A new Gallup Poll survey reveals what seems logical.
The more religious a voter, the more likely to be for Mitt Romney.
The less religious, the more likely to be for Barack Obama
Among the very religious, Romney is favored by a whopping 54-37.
But among the moderately religious, Obama is favored by an almost identical margin, 54-40.
And among the non-religious, Obama has an overwhelming edge, 61-30.
For Romney to win, he will have to do a lot better among non-religious voters. But that will hurt him with the hard-core religious vote, which already has serious doubts about him, not the least of which is around his Mormon religion, which is not tested in the Gallup Poll.
Or, alternatively, Romney can seek to do even better among religious voters. But that would hurt his overall positioning as he tries to move toward the center and win swing state independents.
For the purpose of this analysis, an American’s relative degree of religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the importance of religion in one’s life and about church attendance, yielding three specific groups:
Very religious — Religion is an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every week. This group makes up 41% of registered voters interviewed April 19-23.
Moderately religious — All others who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion questions. This group makes up 27% of registered voters.
Nonreligious — Religion is not an important part of daily life and respondents seldom or never attend church/synagogue/mosque. This group makes up 32% of registered voters.
Voters’ religiousness was a significant correlate of vote choice during the Republican presidential primary season this year, with more religious Republicans tending to vote for Rick Santorum, while less religious Republicans tilted toward Romney. Despite Romney’s troubles with highly religious Republican voters, he gets the disproportionate support from highly religious voters in the general election that Republican candidates traditionally enjoy. Very religious voters make up less than half of the electorate, however, and among all Americans, Romney is losing to Obama by a seven-point margin. …
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
To that phrase, for the latest episode of Mad Men, add trippy-wippy.
The episode shifts through time and perspective, like, oh, say, Pulp Fiction, and only one of the three stories in (not so) “Far Away Places” centers on an LSD trip.
The hairpin plot twists so evident in last week’s episode continue in this one, as does the sense of suddenly (seemingly?) impending doom. …
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Colorado, Iowa, and Washington, DC.
Obama flew this morning from Aurora, Coloardo to Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Air Force One.
Once there, he took part in a roundtable with students at the University of Iowa.
He then delivered an address at the University of Iowa on his drive to get Congress to prevent a doubling of interest rates on student loans.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Air Force One en route Washington, DC.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 2:45 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel.
Here’s a bad sign. The UK economy has fallen back into recession. Preliminary figures show output fell for the second successive quarter. This is Britain’s first double-dip recession since the 1970s, and Prime Minister David Cameron, already troubled by his administration’s links to the Murdoch hacking scandal, is being excoriated for his austerity policies.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
A local Sacramento judge said yesterday that California State Controller John Chiang doesn’t have the authority to withhold state legislative pay for failing to pass a balanced budget, as required by law. But it’s only a “tentative ruling.” Naturally, Chiang disagrees.
The California Assembly came up with enough money from its budget savings to salvage the state Commission on the Status of Women slated by the axe by Brown’s state budget.
Reacting yesterday to news that an initiative to abolish the death penalty has qualified for the November ballot, Brown said in San Jose that he’s glad people will get a chance to vote on the issue but didn’t comment on the issue per se. Brown is a longtime opponent of the death penalty.
However, as California attorney general he pursued its implementation.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. … From my April 19th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Google executives Larry Page and Eric Schmidt and filmmaker James Cameron, director of Avatar, Titanic, and the first two Terminator films are partners in a new venture to mine asteroids.
** QUICK HITS. A local Sacramento judge said today that California State Controller John Chiang doesn’t have the authority to withhold state legislative pay for failing to pass a balanced budget, as required by law. But it’s only a “tentative ruling.” Naturally, Chiang disagrees. … The California Assembly came up with enough money from its budget savings to salvage the state Commission on the Status of Women slated by the axe by Governor Jerry Brown. … Reacting today to news that an initiative to abolish the death penalty has qualified for the November ballot, Brown said today in San Jose that he’s glad people will get a chance to vote on the issue but didn’t comment on the issue per se. Brown is a longtime opponent of the death penalty.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot.
Obama is either ahead, sometimes significantly, or tied in the various 2012 polls as the two campaigns probe for opportunity and vulnerability.
I think Obama has the edge, though missteps and major crises could upend him, and the super PAC phenomenon is a problem for him with the various economic interests upset with the president, notably the old energy economy, able to cut massive checks, sometimes secretly.
Romney’s campaign reminds me quite a lot of billionaire Meg Whitman’s 2010 campaign for governor of California. Which is not exactly surprising, since her candidacy was Romney’s idea in the first place, as I reported here on the Huffington Post two years ago in “The Mitt and Meg Show: Taking Care of Business.”
That venture, the biggest spending non-presidential campaign in American history, ended in a landslide win for Jerry Brown.
Today, Hillary seems a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Her favorability with Democrats is an amazing 86-10. Working for Obama has certainly won the favor of his backers in their hard-fought 2008 primary battle. In the poll, she leads by an overwhelming margin. She’s at 57%, to Vice President Joe Biden at 14%, Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren at 6%, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at 5%, former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold at 3%, Virginia Senator Mark Warner at 2%, and 1% apiece for Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer. (Biden, a clear leader in Clinton’s absence, has a favorable/unfavorable ratio of 70-21, while Cuomo is 32-24.)
If the names polled seem rather random, they are. The future for the Democratic Party arrived early, in the form of Barack Obama. In his absence, there is something of a paucity of obvious “new generation” candidates aside from New York’s governor. Besides, with people living longer and more vigorously, why not look to an old new generation candidate? Jerry Brown, who I rather suspect will be in a historic fourth term as California’s governor in 2016, could make an intriguing choice were he so inclined. Which I tend to doubt, but one never knows.
If Romney manages to win, I expect the pressure on Hillary to run from Democrats to be enormous. With Obama’s re-election, the pressure would be less but the opportunity could be greater.
In any event, she could certainly be in a great position in 2016. Hillary has announced that she’s leaving public office after this term. But associates speculate that, after a year or so of a more restful schedule — Clinton is traveling constantly around the world as secretary of state — she could be ready to roll for the next act.
Not just to win, but to move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition. We could complete the transition out of the Iraq mode we’re still semi-stuck in, forge ahead on the new energy economy, and dispense with the anti-government/no-tax mania that warps public discourse. …
President Barack Obama told college students at the University of North Carolina that he and his wife, Michelle, know what it’s like to owe student loans because the two of them didn’t come from wealthy families. Obama is on a tour promoting low rates for federal student loans.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, North Carolina, and Colorado.
In the morning, Obama honored the 2012 National Teacher of the Year and finalists in an event in the East Room.
He then flew on Air Force One to Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Obama then delivered remarks at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill calling on Congress to stop interest rates on student loans from doubling in July.
At 11:20 AM Pacific, Obama sits down for an interview for Late Night with Jimmy Fallon at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
At 12:40 PM Pacific, Obama departs Raleigh, North Carolina on Air Force One en route Colorado.
At 3:10 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Buckley Air Force Base in Colorado.
At 4:45 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on student loans at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Reports persist, including from UN associates on the ground, that Assad regime forces harass and attack Syrian civilians as soon as UN monitors leave the area.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
At 9 AM, he appears at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group CEO Business Summit at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose.
He and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper will discuss globalization, innovation, and the business climate
At noon, Brown appears at the annual Crime Victims’ Rights Rally on the West Steps of the State Capitol in Sacramento.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. … From my April 19th essay.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama calls on Congress to act before student loan interest rates double for more than 7.4 million students, which would add an average of $1000 to their debt. Much of Obama’s schedule for the next week seems to turn on the issue.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? and MAD MEN: “FAR AWAY PLACES.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events on the weekend.
Obama spends much of the week ahead focusing on swing states and on messaging to attract young voters.
When he’s not working behind the scenes on the various geopolitical crises he’s managing, that is.
Speaking of which, the problem of insuring oil shipments under the new sanctions regimen is emerging as a very serious one for Iran. Marine insurance is part of the crackdown, with the European-based insurers Iran has relied on unable to participate going forward.
That leaves self-insurance or sovereign insurance as the options, which may be highly problematic.
The marine insurance issue, coupled with Iran being banned last month from SWIFT, the global financial messaging and payments network — which means that Iran is held over a barrel on price and the nature of payments by its remaining clients, since they are now limited in currency terms and increasingly having to accept barter they don’t really need — ratchets up the pressure greatly on Tehran.
Will that make them more amenable to reining in their nuclear program?
Or will that make it more likely that they will move on the Strait of Hormuz, as frequently threatened. And a move that may be more deftly achieved with Iran already picking a spat with the UAE over some small islands right in the vicinity.
On Monday, in commemoration of the Holocaust Days of Remembrance, Obama will deliver remarks at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. Obama will also tour the museum with and be introduced by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel.
Wiesel, not incidentally, takes great issue with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s remarks in the past few days likening the Iranian regime with Hitler’s Germany. He says that Netanyahu is distorting the meaning of the Holocaust and cheapening it to score political points.
Also on Monday, Obama will present the Commander-in-Chief Trophy to the Air Force Academy football team at the White House. He does this every year to celebrate the team which does the best in competition between the three principal U.S. Armed Forces academies — the Naval Academy at Annapolis, the Military Academy at West Point, and the Air Force Academy at Colorado Springs. This past season, the Falcons unseated the winners of the past several seasons, the Navy Midshipmen.
On Tuesday morning, Obama will honor the 2012 National Teacher of the Year and finalists at the White House.
On Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, Obama will travel to North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa in a drive to get Congress to prevent interest rates on student loans from doubling in July. Obama will visit the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Also on Tuesday, he will also host an media conference call with college and university student journalists. Obama spends the night in Denver.
On Wednesday, Obama will visit the University of Iowa in Ames, before returning to Washington that evening.
On Thursday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Friday, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will meet with current troops, veterans, and military families at Fort Stewart in Hinesville, Georgia.
Syria’s so-called ceasefire continues to teeter. Assad regime soldiers used gunfire and teargas to disperse tens of thousands of protesters, who on Friday spilled out from mosques onto the streets in cities and towns across Syria, calling for the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events this weekend.
On Monday, the Little Hoover Commission on state governmental efficiency begins three days of hearings on Brown’s fairly sweeping plans to reorganize state government. The commission has until the end of the month to evaluate the plan.
The legislature will then have 60 days to vote it down, if it so chooses.
I’m not of significant opposition as of yet, aside from concern about Brown’s plan to eliminate the Commission on the Status of Women.
Brown issued the following proclamation declaring April 21st to be John Muir Day in California:
“In every walk with nature one receives far more than he seeks.” – John Muir
John Muir (1838-1914) was a giant of a man. His vision of the pristine landscape as a source of spiritual renewal has become central to our understanding of the relationship between humanity and nature. In addition to his scientific discoveries, engineering innovations and writings that still inspire us today, Muir’s advocacy was instrumental in the creation of the National Park System, one of the world’s great ecological treasures.
It is a tribute to the beauty of our state that this consummate lover of nature chose California as his home. In return, California has honored him many times over. In 1976 the California Historical Society named John Muir “The Greatest Californian,” and our state quarter, issued in 2004 by the United States Mint, bears his image. Numerous parks, trails, roads, schools and other places around the state are named after him. John Muir Day was established in 1988, the 150th anniversary of his birth, by a unanimous vote of the Legislature. Today, as a way to honor Muir’s teachings and help keep his legacy alive, I suggest a visit to one of California’s public open spaces—national park, state park or any other unspoiled wilderness—which he strived so zealously to preserve.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. …
This is a struggle that has taken place, on and off, for decades, as the rest of the advanced industrial world moved ahead with rail. The same sorts of folks hitting Brown now on high-speed rail hit him during his first governorship for being a “Moonbeam” by pushing renewable energy. …
But it’s not just people pushing perspectives which benefit the entrenched interests of oil, car, and airline companies who suffer from tunnel vision. … From my April 19th essay.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A little movie called The Avengers opens the weekend after next. (It’s not the one with Emma Peel.)
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $103.88 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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