New West Notes

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:56:26 +0000

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The Obamas are off to Camp David for an abbreviated 4th of July prior to dad’s Moscow Summit next week. Here are some touristy things the Obama daughters can do in Moscow while dad is spending a lot of time talking with the guys in suits.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S FIRST 4TH.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has had his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 7:30 AM Pacific, Obama , accompanied by First Lady Michelle Obama and daughters Malia and Sasha, departed for Camp David.

He’ll celebrate daughter Malia’s 11th birthday there tomorrow before returning to to the White House.

On the weekend, he travels to Moscow for his major summit next week with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Obama is engaged in major preparations prior to the Moscow Summit. Word is that the US and Russia have reached tentative agreement on a plan to regularly ship military supplies across Russia to aid the US effort in Afghanistan.

This summit in Moscow from July 6th to July 8th may be Obama’s most important. It will be followed by the G-8 summit in Italy. Key issues, which of course will be explained here, involve America’s role in NATO expansion and missile defense seemingly aimed at Russia and potential major Russian assistance to America’s agenda in Afghanistan, Iran, and the Middle East.

Obama is closely monitoring the first offensive he has ordered involving large numbers of American troops.

This is Operation Strike of the Sword, involving more than 4000 US Marines and about 750 Afghan troops, as well as hundreds of British troops. They have moved into the Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan, a hotbed of Afghan Taliban activity. They have encountered little resistance, and only one Marine has been killed so far.

The Marines will set up a series of bases there and pursue active patrolling with the near-term goal of preventing Taliban disruption of Afghanistan’s presidential election in August.

Obama clarified yesterday that the overall goal is to deny Afghanistan as a base for Al Qaeda.

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities, Obama and his advisors are monitoring the security situation there.

And Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where once large protests have, as expected here, fizzled in the face of a massive security presence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Yet another day has nearly passed in Iran with demonstrations effectively tamped down. A top Iranian cleric announced that the state will try some Iranians working for the British Embassy for allegedly helping to plan the demonstrations.

Obama is also closely monitoring the situation with North Korea, which fired off four short-range missiles yesterday. But the threatened long-range missile test launch toward Hawaii on the 4th of July does not appear imminent.

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Pakistani officials are claiming significant success in their offensive against the Taliban.

He is also monitoring the situation in Pakistan, whose government accepted his suggestion that the army launch an offensive against the Pakistani Taliban who were surging around the country. That offensive has driven Taliban forces back, and the Pakistani Army is conducting operations in Taliban strongholds.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a press conference this morning in San Francisco on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He then engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol.

IOUs are being printed in lieu of payment for many state services due to the intractable budget impasse.

It may be that progress is being made. Or it may not.

** THE GOP’S PALIN FOOD FIGHT: WHY NOW? You have to hand it to Sarah Palin. For a sideshow, she’s very good at being the center of attention. Even when she doesn’t want to be.

She had a few big controversies earlier this year — her on-again/off-again headlining of the big GOP congressional fundraiser, her pregnant teenage daughter, the usual Alaska stuff — but she’s hit the jackpot this week with a huge food fight among big name Republicans. What’s unexamined is this question: Why now? …

From my new column.

** TRANSFORMATIVE: LE CINEMA DE MICHAEL BAY. I love the films of Michael Bay. In fact, they are so dramatic and compelling that …

Gotcha! I actually do not love the films of Michael Bay. I don’t hate them, either. And there are a couple that I like. But the fact that it is considered preposterous for a writer — a writer who writes about anything, even wallpaper — to not dismiss Bay’s work in the most vehement of terms points up a dramatic disconnect between the critical community and the movie-going audience.

Bay’s new flick, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, just took in an astounding $200.1 million at the domestic box office in its first five days of release. …

From my June 29th essay.

** STAR TREK FIRSTS … 43 YEARS ON. Some 43 years after it began, and seven years after the movie franchise seemed completely played out, Star Trek is making firsts again. And so far, it’s the most popular movie of the year in America. …

From my June 23rd essay.

** OBAMA AND THE AYATOLLAH. Two weeks after his landmark address in Cairo, where he honored traditional Islam and extolled engagement with modern Islam, President Barack Obama finds himself in a conundrum. Determining what to do about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who just told the people of Iran, in an unusual nationally-televised sermon at the end of Friday prayers, to stop acting like they live in a democracy.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

** OBAMA’S CRISIS MANAGEMENT: NORTH KOREA, AGAIN. President Barack Obama changed the old kabuki in dealing with his second North Korean crisis. The first time around, back in April, dealing with a long-range missile test that failed to place a satellite in orbit, Obama treated the effort as more of the same rather baffling attention-seeking by the Hermit Kingdom. This time, after a string of provocations including an underwhelming underground nuclear detonation, a series of missile launches, and the imprisonment of two California-based journalists, Obama went in another, tougher, direction that may lead to a naval confrontation. … From my June 12th column.

** REMEMBERING AMERICA: OBAMA’S D-DAY SPEECH AND TWO DAYS IN JUNE. There’s no question that timing is, as it were, of the essence in politics. Consider the timing of President Barack Obama’s address to the Muslim world, coming as it did just two days before the 65th anniversary of D-Day.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

On Thursday in Cairo, Obama gave his rhetorical best to reposition a mostly peaceful America in the future of the Muslim world. On Saturday in Normandy, he reminded of America’s glittering, and far more martial, past. … From my June 8th column.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate last fall, prior to the global economic meltdown, with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included. Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record last July 11th, crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.

This is up about $33 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:27:56 +0000

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Operation Strike of the Sword is now underway. President Barack Obama has ordered thousands of US Marines to take the offensive against Taliban forces in southern Afghanistan.

** QUICK HITS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders expressed optimism that they can come up with a new California budget in a matter of days. IOUs are ready to go out to some state vendors now. The Democrats are dropping the demand for another round of tax hikes and say they are ready to compromise with Schwarzenegger on other matters, including pensions and fraud protections. … Comedian Al Franken, the victor in Minnesota’s closely-fought Senate race and recount, will be sworn in as a US senator on Monday. … But President Barack Obama won’t be there. He’ll be in Moscow for his big summit with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Obama and Medvedev said very positive things about one another today. … Obama, who is prepping for the Moscow Summit and monitoring the new Marine offensive in Afghanistan, as well as short-range North Korean missile launches, delayed his departure for Camp David till tomorrow morning. Obama will be back at the White House on the 4th, then off to Moscow.

** THE ROVING VEEP. Never let it be said that Joe Biden is not a hands-on vice president. He turned up in Iraq today, on an unannounced three-day visit in the wake of the handover of security in the cities from US forces to Iraqi forces.

Here’s the White House statement: Vice President Biden has arrived in Iraq to visit U.S. troops and to meet with Iraqi leaders, including President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Speaker of the Council of Representatives Ayad al-Samarrai. The Vice President will reiterate the United States’ commitment to fully implement the Security Agreement and the Strategic Framework Agreement and to carry out President Obama’s plan to draw down U.S. forces. He will discuss with Iraq’s leaders the importance of achieving the political progress that is necessary to ensure the nation’s long-term stability. This is Vice President Biden’s second trip to Iraq this year and his first as Vice President.

And the pool report: Vice President Biden was greeted at Baghdad International Airport by:
Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari
Deputy Foreign Minister Labid Abbawi
General Ray Odierno
Lt. Gen. Charles Jacoby.
Here is a rough look at his schedule for tomorrow
Tomorrow morning the vice president will meet and have coffee with General Odierno and Ambassador Hill; he will then have a private briefing/ Following that he will greet some embassy staff — that is closed press.
He will then meet with the United Nations assistance mission to I raq . (UNAMI) Some NGO representatives from in country will be there; there will be a pool spray.
He will then will meet with the two vice presidents, Tariq al-Hashimi and Adil Mehdi, Shiite presidents, and will then proceed to a meeting with the speaker, Dr. Ayad al Samaraie.
Then he will meet with prime minister al Maliki .
We have a lid

From Earlier:
URGENT
Joe Biden has just landed in Iraq for a surprise 2 day visit to meet iraqi officials and troops. He will try to reestablish contact with Iraqi leaders and try to help foster efforts at political reconciliation.
Fuller pool report to come.
Sheryl Stolberg NYT

** MORE CALIFORNIA 2010 FUNDRAISING. Lost in the shuffle of my e-mail late yesterday afternoon was a press release from GOP gubernatorial hopeful Steve Poizner’s campaign. The state insurance commissioner, who made a fortune with cell phone tracking technology, has raised a total of only $1.2 million so far, mostly from small donors. Meg Whitman, in contrast, has raised $6.5 million, and she only started at the beginning of the year. Both are super-rich, so in some ways the question is moot. And Whitman, the former eBay CEO, has raised much less than Arnold Schwarzenegger raised in only two months when he won the California governorship in a landslide in the 2003 recall election.

** THE GOP’S PALIN FOOD FIGHT: WHY NOW? You have to hand it to Sarah Palin. For a sideshow, she’s very good at being the center of attention. Even when she doesn’t want to be.

From my new column.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE GOP’S PALIN FOOD FIGHT: WHY NOW?

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has a short day today in the White House before leaving for Camp David and the 4th of July weekend.

Which will be truncated for him, as he travels to Moscow for his major summit next week with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Obama has had his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 10:45 AM Pacific, Obama meets with business leaders to discuss innovation and job creation in the Roosevelt Room.

At 11:20 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks about innovation and jobs in the Rose Garden.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs for Camp David.

Obama is closely monitoring the first offensive he has ordered involving large numbers of American troops. The Pakistani Army offensive against the Taliban was strongly suggested by Obama, but obviously not ordered.

This is Operation Strike of the Sword, involving more than 4000 US Marines and about 750 Afghan troops. They have moved into the Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan, a hotbed of Afghan Taliban activity.

The Marines will set up a series of bases there and pursue active patrolling with the near-term goal of preventing Taliban disruption of Afghanistan’s presidential election in August.

Obama is prepping for his summit in Moscow from July 6th to July 8th. Key issues, which of course will be explained here, involve America’s role in NATO expansion and missile defense seemingly aimed at Russia and potential major Russian assistance to America’s agenda in Afghanistan, Iran, and the Middle East.

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities, Obama and his advisors are monitoring the security situation there.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Yet another day has nearly passed in Iran with demonstrations effectively tamped down.

Obama is also closely monitoring the situation with North Korea, which today fired off two short-range missiles. But the long-range missile test launch toward Hawaii on the 4th of July does not appear imminent.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency yesterday in California.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds press conferences this morning in Los Angeles and Fresno on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He then engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol.

IOUs are about to be printed in lieu of payment for many state services due to the intractable budget impasse which I’ve discussed too many times.

Schwarzenegger’s LA press conference will be held at the Governor’s Office in downtown LA at 9 AM.

Schwarzenegger’s Fresno press conference will be held at the Greater Fresno Chamber of Commerce at 11 AM.

The events will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.

** TRANSFORMATIVE: LE CINEMA DE MICHAEL BAY. I love the films of Michael Bay. In fact, they are so dramatic and compelling that …

Bay’s new flick, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, just took in an astounding $200.1 million at the domestic box office in its first five days of release. …

From my June 29th essay.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $33 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:23:12 +0000

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President Barack Obama talked up his universal health care plan again today.

** QUICK HITS. No progress today on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis. The state Controller’s office starts printing IOUs tomorrow if there is no resolution in the morning. One wonders if the public employee unions pushing the Democratic legislative leadership aren’t hoping to force a federal bailout to stave off further changes. But that would seriously interfere with the Obama Administration’s national agenda, as one can infer from the level of state governmental bailout in the economic stimulus bill. … Ex-eBay CEO and Republican presidential campaign co-chair Meg Whitman, a gubernatorial hopeful, announced this afternoon that she’s raised $6.5 million since the beginning of the year. No word from fellow GOP hopefuls Steve Poizner or Tom Campbell. … On the Democratic side, no tweets from San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who hasn’t returned my call to him on his cell phone. But he has a little over $1 million cash on hand. Jerry Brown did pick up last night, and says he has $7.3 to $7.4 million cash on hand. To catch Brown, Newsom has to seriously out-spend him. Which will be difficult to do with only one-seventh as much money as the two-time Democratic presidential runner-up.

** THE GREAT PALIN FOODFIGHT: KRISTOL VS. SCHMIDT. In the aftermath of the Vanity Fair piece on Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, in which ranking John McCain aides talked about how difficult she was to deal with, Politico has a story prompted by a post-VF piece battle between commentator Bill Kristol and former Schwarzenegger and McCain campaign director Steve Schmidt.

It’s long and complex, but worth checking out. I am thinking about writing more about it. Basically, what’s most interesting is what is not in the piece, Politico being an essentially conservative publication and this particular writer definitely a conservative.

Kristol is upset by two things. One, another blow to the notion of Palin as presidential timber, something he has promoted against all the weight of evidence to the contrary. Two, he hates Schmidt’s diminution of longtime Kristol friend Randy Scheuneman, who was McCain’s chief foreign policy advisor in the campaign and, more importantly a longtime neocon advocate who was also the paid lobbyist for the government of Georgia. His enthusiasm about Georgia may have prompted that country’s president, Mikhail Saakashvili, to foolishly invade the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, thus providing Russia with its pretext to crush the Georgian military and dramatically reassert its dominant role in Russia’s periphery.

Scheuneman became a huge advocate of Palin, who was on foreign policy essentially a neocon tool, having no inherent views or knowledge of her own (”I can see Russia from my house”). He was suspected by Schmidt of leaking to Kristol and others in their circle, to the extent that Schmidt ordered an in-house search of staff e-mail.

It’s fascinating that Kristol, who is still very influential in Republican circles, notwithstanding the fact that he’s virtually always wrong and, while amiable and Harvard-educated, simply not very intelligent, and his allies are so concerned about continuing to promote Palin. After all, Barack Obama’s fondest wish in his re-election campaign, almost certainly, would be to run against her.

** CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS UPDATE. At his late morning Capitol press conference, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in a genial mood, said he looks forward to continued talks with the entrenched legislative parties. In the meantime, noting that legislative debates are taking place on other issues, he announced that he will not sign any legislation unrelated to the state’s fiscal straits.

And he has issued an executive order a state of emergency due to the budget impasse, calling a special session of the Legislature to deal with the situation, a largely symbolic move. He also ordered a third furlough day per month all state workers. This means that, due to the budget impasse, state workers now have about a 15% pay cut, which is probably not what public employee union leaders were looking for.

State government offices, including the Department of Motor Vehicles, will be closed around the state the first, second, and third Fridays of every month. State hospitals, prisons, and 24-hour care facilities will maintain normal hours, as will the California Highway Patrol and state firefighters.

Schwarzenegger now says the budget deficit to be dealt with is $26.3 billion, up from $24.3 billion. Finance director Mike Genest had some reason why the $3.3 billion education savings seemingly missed by the refusal to go with the stopgap measure last night actually works out to be a little less, but I was called to other things at that point. The numbers are just preposterous, of course, so what’s a billion here and there, right?

** SCHWARZENEGGER BUDGET CRISIS PRESS CONFERENCE LATE MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold a Capitol press conference to discuss California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

With negotiations into last night proving to be intractable, California is on the verge of issuing IOUs for the first time in nearly two decades.

The event will be webcast live at 11:30 AM at www.gov.ca.gov.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

President Barack Obama discussed the pullback of US forces and transfer of security in Iraq’s cities and towns to Iraqi forces.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama continues his health care focus today, as well as prepping for his major summit next week in Moscow.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 10:15 AM Pacific, Obama holds a national discussion on health care through an online town hall at Northern Virginia Community College.

At 1:45 PM Pacific, Obama signs S.614, a bill to award a Congressional Gold Medal to the Women Airforce Service Pilots in the Oval Office.

Elsewhere this afternoon, Vice President Joe Biden highlights Recovery Act broadband investments in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Obama is going to have to decide how to pass his universal health care in the Senate, where he now has 60 Democratic votes, enough to block Republican filibuster efforts. But some moderate Democrats, such as California’s Dianne Feinstein and one-time apostate Joe Lieberman, are resistant to the so-called public option, which would allow for the emergence of a real nationalized health care system.

Obama is prepping for his summit in Moscow from July 6th to July 8th. Key issues, which of course will be explained here, involve America’s role in NATO expansion and missile defense seemingly aimed at Russia and potential major Russian assistance to America’s agenda in Afghanistan, Iran, and the Middle East.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

With President Barack Obama arriving next week for a summit, Moscow is shutting down its casinos, symbol of the money culture that gripped the city prior to the global recession.

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities, Obama and his advisors are monitoring the security situation there.

Obama, along with other world leaders, has denounced the military coup in Honduras, where President Manuel Zelaya, a champion of the poor who was trying to get his term extended, was deposed. Zelaya is preparing to return to the country.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Yet another day has passed in Iran with demonstrations effectively tamped down.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

Yesterday was the deadline set by state Controller John Chiang to have a budget in place in order to avoid having to begin issuing IOUs.

Needless to say, the deadline was blown.

Democratic legislators offered up a stopgap, trying to buy time, and were rejected by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, as he said he would do.

Because Republicans would not go along with a stopgap, and because Democrats would not accept a budget that could be enacted, some $3.3 billion in savings from proposed education cuts were lost with the close of the fiscal year.

We’ve been down this road many times.

IOUs are scheduled to be sent out tomorrow. If the Legislature comes up with a budget today, that would be averted.

Don’t hold your breath. The intractable factions that dominate the party caucuses in the Capitol on fiscal matters – anti-government faction over the Republicans, ultra-government faction over the Democrats – each believes it can win a game of chicken.

Neither is correct.

** TRANSFORMATIVE: LE CINEMA DE MICHAEL BAY. I love the films of Michael Bay. In fact, they are so dramatic and compelling that …

Bay’s new flick, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, just took in an astounding $200.1 million at the domestic box office in its first five days of release. …

From my new essay.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $38 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran, though the latter have lessened substantially over the past week.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:34:31 +0000

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

Former Saturday Night Live star Al Franken, who performed in a bedroom comedy political act in the ’90s with Arianna Huffington, is Minnesota’s new U.S. senator following today’s concession by Republican Norm Coleman.

9:30 PM UPDATE: CALIFORNIA 2010 FUNDRAISING. Fundraising reports are due now for California’s gubernatorial hopefuls.

I called Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom on their cell phones this evening to inquire about their fundraising. I reached the former governor-turned-attorney general, and left a message for the San Francisco mayor. Brown told me he has between $7.3 and $7.4 million in the bank. Since he’s not an announced candidate for governor, he’s only able to raise money at the much lower limit accorded a candidate for attorney general, but he certainly has much more than Newsom, who is raising at the higher level. Once he is an announced candidate, Brown can go back to his contributors for more.

Newsom’s campaign manager did put out a memo late this afternoon which didn’t address his overall fundraising, but did tout his online fundraising, saying that today he passed the $1 million mark since the beginning of his campaign last year. Intriguingly, Newsom also just passed 4000 total online donations. Newsom’s average online donation is much larger than those of Barack Obama, suggesting that his campaign is using his web site as a convenience for its contributors.

I don’t have cell numbers for this season’s Republican gubernatorial hopefuls, but it’s something of a moot point in any event. Two of them are super-rich, ex-eBay CEO and Republican presidential campaign co-chair Meg Whitman, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Each will self-fund. The third hopeful, former Congressman Tom Campbell, who is not super-rich, doesn’t seem to be raising much money.

** QUICK HITS. While talking continues, still no solution to California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis as late afternoon turns to early evening on the final day in which a budget can be enacted to avert IOUs. … National Security Advisor Jim Jones, former commandant of the US Marine Corps and commander of NATO, says that US troop levels in Afghanistan will not be increased in the foreseeable future. Jones was there just recently. … WalMart says it’s going to follow President Barack Obama’s call and, for the first time, provide health insurance to its employees.

** IT’S SENATOR AL FRANKEN, AND 60 DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN THE U.S. SENATE. Norm Coleman conceded after the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled unanimously today against his long-running court challenge to former Saturday Night Live star Al Franken’s 312-vote recount victory.

It was a very smart move by Barack Obama to ignore the venomous complaints from the netroots left against Joe Lieberman. Kicking him out of the Senate Democratic caucus would have made the 60-vote Democratic majority, which blocks Republican filibuster efforts, impossible. Now Lieberman is very loyal to Obama, and one of his biggest boosters. After campaigning against him last year at the side of his old friend John McCain.

The fact is that a governing coalition has to include both the Al Frankens and Joe Liebermans of the world.

** PALIN’S CAMPAIGN PROBLEMS REVEALED. NWN readers recall that I panned the pick of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s vice presidential running mate very shortly after it happened. Now Vanity Fair has an account, heavily sourced to the late McCain for President campaign, of the multiple problems it encountered in dealing with the Alaska governor. Much of it is not new, but it’s all in one place.

Schwarzenegger campaign manager-turned McCain campaign director Steve Schmidt, who helped push the pick as a Hail Mary pass, figures prominently in the account. Among other things, it recounts how he had to drop most everything for three days in order to prep her for her debate with Joe Biden. And how most of her other early advocates in the campaign found her impossibly difficult to work with.

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Parades and a national holiday today marked the withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraqi cities. Iraqi forces are now responsible for security, with US forces pulled back to bases.

** NORTH KOREAN SHIP TURNS AROUND. That North Korean ship believed to be carrying contraband long-range missiles, shadowed down the China coast by the Navy destroyer USS John McCain, has reportedly turned around. Initially thought headed for Singapore, then Burma, both of which denied it was coming, it may now be headed for home.

This could mark a ratcheting down of North Korean crisis-mongering, especially since the threatened long-range missile launch in the direction of President Barack Obama’s home state Hawaii on the 4th of July hasn’t yet resulted in a missile on a launch pad.

** E.P.A. FORMALLY APPROVES CALIFORNIA CLIMATE PROGRAM. The US Environmental Protection Agency today formally approved California’s landmark cutting tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases. The move had been repeatedly signaled and implicitly announced when the Obama Administration essentially adopted the California program on vehicle emissions.

The formal move came today, and allows the state – and more than a dozen other states following California’s lead – to implement its omnibus climate change program. Vehicle emissions are the cornerstone, but not the majority of the problem.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, both of whom battled the blocking Bush/Cheney Administration and major automakers on the issue, both reacted very positively, as you might suppose.

Schwarzenegger: “After being asleep at the wheel for over two decades, the federal government has finally stepped up and granted California its nation-leading tailpipe emissions waiver. This decision is a huge step for our emerging green economy that will create thousands of new jobs and bring Californians the cars they want while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Thanks to the environmental commitment of President Obama and the continued leadership of state Senator Fran Pavley, California’s long battle to reduce pollution from passenger vehicles is over, and a greener, cleaner future has finally arrived.”

Brown: “EPA’s reversal tears down the last remaining barrier preventing California from enforcing its laws curbing greenhouse gases. Today’s decision stands in sharp contrast to the Bush EPA’s politically driven denial two years ago.”

** FRANKEN DECLARED U.S. SENATE RACE WINNER BY MINNESOTA SUPREME COURT. After months of legal battle and delay by former Republican incumbent Norm Coleman, Minnesota’s state Supreme Court voted 5-0 today that comedian Al Franken has prevailed in the lengthy recount of last November’s Senate race there. Coleman may try to appeal to the US Supreme Court, but it will be very difficult for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to try to block Franken’s seating in the Senate now.

** CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS UPDATE. No real progress this morning. I know you’re surprised.

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June 30th is Sovereignty Day in Iraq, marking the withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraqi cities.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

At 7:30 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 11 AM Pacific, he delivers remarks highlighting nonprofit programs from across the country in the East Room of the White House.

At 12:15 PM Pacific, he meets with Secretary of Energy Steven Chu in the Oval Office.

Obama is prepping for his summit in Moscow from July 6th to July 8th.

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities, Obama and his advisors are monitoring the security situation there. Today is Sovereignty Day in Iraq. Most combat troops, who will now be based outside the cities, were actually removed on Sunday, two days ahead of schedule.

This is actually a landmark, but it’s being largely ignored by the US media.

Incidentally, contracts to develop the big Ramallah oil field in Iraq have just been let. The winners? A partnership between British Petroleum and the Chinese national oil company.

The losers? The partnership between Exxon Mobil and the top Malaysian oil company.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Yet another day has passed in Iran with demonstrations effectively tamped down.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

The Russian Army has undertaken a large anti-terrorist military exercise which runs until the arrival of President Barack Obama in Moscow on July 6th.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

Today is the deadline set by state Controller John Chiang to have a budget in place in order to avoid having to begin issuing IOUs.

But the situation is at an impasse.

All the players are saying what they’ve been saying for weeks, though there are attempts to spin up new variations on the same theme.

I can only imagine how mind-numbing it would be to cover this full-time.

Democrats are asking for still more time to negotiate, having recycled various tax hike efforts in various guises – all of which have been defeated before – after going through a lengthy budget conference committee process to arrive at where they began. They can’t even get all the Dems to go along now, much less any Republicans, even when trying the tax-as-fee majority vote gambit. Which failed last year, incidentally.

Incidentally, even if Schwarzenegger were to go along with the gambit, a budget enacted in this manner would not go into effect for 90 days, doing nothing to deal with the need for a balanced budget in place to avert IOUs.

Republicans pretend on the one hand to go along with a stopgap, piecemeal effort to avert IOUs, then block it on the other.

Schwarzenegger comes up with a last minute proposal to deal with fraud in in-home health services and workfare programs, which is quite similar to ideas that have been discussed before.

We’ve been down this road many times.

The talks continue and the Legislature will be in session all day and likely well into the night. It’s all very exciting …

** TRANSFORMATIVE: LE CINEMA DE MICHAEL BAY. I love the films of Michael Bay. In fact, they are so dramatic and compelling that …

Bay’s new flick, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, just took in an astounding $200.1 million at the domestic box office in its first five days of release. …

From my new essay.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Monday Morning Quarterback, And More

Bill Bradley — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:34:38 +0000

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President Barack Obama today praised the narrow passage of major energy and climate legislation late Friday by the House, where it was pushed through by LA Congressman Henry Waxman and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and urged the Senate to act.

** QUICK HITS. President Barack Obama today touted new light bulb requirements that he says will save billions in great energy efficiency. … Obama told gay and lesbian leaders in the White House that he is ending don’t ask/don’t tell in the military and lifting the ban on travel to the US by HIV-positive individuals. … Fireworks were seen in Baghdad and other major cities of Iraq as US forces formally turned over security arrangements to Iraqi commanders as part of their withdrawal from the cities. … In California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis, Democratic legislative leaders defied today’s statements by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and their own recent history on the issue, by passing a budget that contains tax hikes-as-fees in an attempt to get around the state’s constitutional requirement for a two-thirds vote on such things.

** SCHWARZENEGGER SAYS NO TO DEMOCRATIC TAX HIKE BY MAJORITY VOTE. With their earlier plans having failed, as expected, Democratic legislative leaders now seem to be moving forward with the pass taxes-as-fees (thus removing the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds vote), as I discussed this morning.

Not surprisingly, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said this morning that he will veto any such legislation. Its constitutionality, in any event, is in very serious question, as you might expect.

None of this can be a surprise for Democrats.

In fact, nothing that has happened for the past several weeks in California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis has had any result that is other than the expected.

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President Barack Obama spends much of this 4th of July week prepping for the big summit next week in Moscow.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK

An abbreviated week this week, with the 4th of July holiday looming on Saturday.

President Barack Obama spends much of the week prepping for his big summit next week in Moscow. He also does many other things.

California politics, and the state government’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis, sees a looming deadline this week.

Obama this week will work the Senate for the energy and climate change bill which narrowly passed the House of Representatives late Friday.

He will continue adjusting the universal health care package.

He will determine how things are going with the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq’s cities.

And he will monitor crises in Iran, where the protest movement has been predictably stifled, and North Korea, which threatens to test fire a long-range missile in the direction of his home state Hawaii on the 4th of July.

Things are less stimulating from an intellectual standpoint in California politics, where the state government is up against this week’s deadline by state Controller John Chiang on the issuance of IOUs in lieu of many payments.

Little apparent progress has been in the past several weeks, as legislative players have largely reverted – for the umpteenth time – to their default positions. Or, at least in the case of the Dems, new default positions, which do acknowledge the obvious need for cuts. But keep pushing for another round of tax hikes.

Republicans, of course, remain entrenched on fiscal matters, which is to say squarely in the pocket of the anti-government faction which dominates the caucus in the Legislature. So entrenched, in fact, that they turned down Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s plan to enact a fee on property owners in high-risk fire areas. Notwithstanding the fact that fire services in those areas are already severely underfunded, as we’ve seen with the firestorms of the past few years.

As for the Democrats, they have acceded to the obvious need to cut programs in the wake of the massive loss of revenue caused by the global economic downturn and the state’s inadequate revenue structure. But, pressed by the ultra-government faction that dominates Democratic legislative politics in the Capitol, they keep pushing for more time (hoping to avoid further cutus) and more taxes.

I had this conversation with top Democratic legislators seven years ago, during Gray Davis’s governorship. Spending commitments (and tax cuts) taken on during the dot-com boom were resulting in a structural deficit. Their solution? Raise taxes. I asked how, given the Republican anti-tax stance and the state’s constitution, requiring at least some Republican votes.

Well, Republicans will just have to go along with tax hikes, I was told. Why? They’ll just have to, insisted then Assembly Budget Committee chair Jenny Oropeza.

That was in 2002.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and is meeting with senior advisors, all in the Oval Office.

At 10:15 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on energy in the Grand Foyer of the White House.

He will address the narrow passage, late on Friday, in the House of Representatives of major energy and climate legislation. Pushed through by LA Congressman Henry Waxman and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the legislation would establish a cap and trade system to cut greenhouse gas emissions and require that 20% of the nation’s electric power come from renewable sources. The bill faces major hurdles in gaining Senate passage and will be taken up later this year.

At 11:15 AM Pacific, Obama meets one-on-one with President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia in the Oval Office.

At 11:45 AM Pacific, Obama holds an expanded meeting with Uribe in the Oval Office.

At 1:25 PM Pacific, Obama and Michelle Obama host a reception for LGBT Pride Month in the East Room. The Obamas have invited some 250 promiment members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender communities. Obama is still trying to find the right balance on gay rights, with significant criticism for his lack of support for same-sex marriage, an issue which is still extraordinarily controversial, and for ending the don’t ask/don’t tell policy for the military, which is far less controversial.

At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama attends a reception with Democratic National Finance Committee members at the Mandarin Hotel in Washington.

With the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities, Obama and his advisors are monitoring the security situation there.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Yet another day has passed in Iran with demonstrations effectively tamped down.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

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Michael Jackson mania continues. Sister Janet Jackson discussed the late pop superstar last night at the Black Entertainment Television awards.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

Various moves by Democratic legislative leaders on the budget have failed, as predicted.

Late yesterday, the state Assembly revived the taxes-as-fees gambit, passing a budget with 44 votes out of 80. The bill recasts the oil severance and tobacco tax hikes as fee increases, zeros them out by cutting the gasoline tax, then institutes a gasoline fee. All as an attempt to get around the constitutional two-thirds vote requirement for tax hikes.

We’ve been down this road.

The talks continue. It’s very exciting …

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $37 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran, though the latter have lessened substantially over the past week.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Weekend Edition

Bill Bradley — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:03:15 +0000

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen has exploded across US movie screens, grossing over $200 million in its first five days, second fastest start of all-time behind only The Dark Knight. I find the critically-reviled film only moderately entertaining, but a fascinating phenomenon.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … TRANSFORMATIVE: LE CINEMA DE MICHAEL BAY.

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama has no scheduled public events today.

The US commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, said today that US combat troops were withdrawn from Iraqi cities today. This move came two days ahead of schedule.

Some troops remain as advisors and security for US personnel.

In Iran, a few thousand people reportedly tried to demonstrate outside a mosque in Tehran. They were forcibly dispersed by Iranian security forces.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again complained that Obama should not criticize the Iranian regime for its crackdown on protesters. He did not again demand that Obama apologize.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SUNDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has no scheduled public events today.

He is holding meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

Schwarzenegger has some changes to his budget plan that do not raise taxes or cut as heavily into what he see as an illusory budget reserve as Democrats want, but would preserve a diminished version of the state’s welfare program.

In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama praises the major energy and climate change legislation that passed the House of Representatives late on Friday.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

Obama has no scheduled public events today.

He and his administration are pleased that the House passed, late yesterday, a major energy and climate change bill by LA Congressman Henry Waxman and others, which would set up a cap and trade system on greenhouse gas emissions and a renewable energy portfolio. It’s the first time that either house of Congress has adopted major climate change legislation.

But the vote was only 219 to 212, with 44 Democrats voting no — and eight Republicans voting yes — and the legislation faces a tough hurdle in the Senate. House passage required the strong support of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a push by the Obama Administration and former Vice President Al Gore, Nobel Peace Prize winner for his work on climate change.

Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where once large protests have fizzled in the face of a massive security presence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

The Iranian regime, having largely shut down the protest movement, is moving now to brand it as largely an invention of foreign manipulators.

Indeed, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said again today that Obama made a mistake in criticizing the regime if he intends to negotiate with Iran.

The real action in Iran may be the infighting amongst the ruling elite.

There are various rumors about the whereabouts and activities of opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, the former prime minister under Ayatollah Khomeini. He does seem to have urged his supporters to be more circumspect in their opposition with various symbolic acts that don’t directly challenge the Islamic state, which he says he continues to support. Communicating almost entirely through his web site, Mousavi nonetheless vows to fight on, though to what effect is another matter.

Mousavi agreed today to seek government permits for any future demonstrations he participates in, effectively removing himself from the fray as those permits will not be forthcoming.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

President Obama dispatched Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for three days of talks in Moscow in advance of next month’s summit with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SATURDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

Various moves by Democratic legislative leaders on the budget have failed, as predicted.

And nothing was accomplished Friday, though the late Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett were honored by the Legislature.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record last July 11th, crude oil closed on Friday at $69.16 per barrel. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $35 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran, though the latter have lessened substantially over the past week.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 16:26:32 +0000

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Terrorist bombings are on the rise in the final days before the scheduled June 30th withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraqi cities.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA: WHAT’S NEXT ON IRAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

** QUICK HITS. The California Legislature made no progress today on the state’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis. But, before adjourning late this morning, it did honor the memories of Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett. Meanwhile, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger says he will institute a third furlough day absent legislative action, thus acting against a bulwark of Democratic legislators. … Another quiet day in Iran, with little if any in the way of protest, the security apparat having successfully squelched a movement that has not expanded beyond its initial base. … The US House of Representatives passed a big bill on climate change and renewable energy setting up a cap and trade system similar to that outlined in California’s plan after Republicans trotted out various stalling tactics. If Congress does not follow California’s lead, states comprising most of the national population will. …

** SANFORD WATCH. In a new Survey USA poll, 60% of South Carolina voters want Governor Mark Sanford to resign. That includes 64% of women.

Sanford, who has already resigned as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, disappeared for nearly a week. His staff said he was “hiking the Appalachian Trail,” a phrase that seems destined for the Hall of Euphemism, but he was actually missing Father’s Day weekend with his wife and four sons to carry on an affair in Buenos Aires.

** A BIG LEAD FOR JERRY BROWN. CalBuzz has the first real poll on the likely two-man race for the Democratic nomination for governor of California between former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. Assuming Newsom doesn’t step away from the campaign.

The survey, by respected Sacramento pollster Jim Moore, has Brown way ahead of Newsom, 46% to 26%. Brown is even further ahead amongst older voters, the likeliest to vote. On the key measurement of whether or not the candidate (Brown has not announced, but Newsom is more than fully staffed and has been campaigning avidly for months) has “sufficient skills to be governor,” Brown gets 69% and Newsom gets 41%. And this is before the San Francisco Chronicle finally does its take-out on Newsom’s tenure as mayor of my home town, from which he’s been absent for an extraordinary amount of time while mayor.

There’s a lot more to the poll, but readers know my take.

I said more than a year ago that Senator Dianne Feinstein would never run for governor. She’s not running. I also said that I had serious doubts that Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would stick with the race. They are both out.

Will Newsom stick? I defended him strongly against his netroots critics, who are now thrilled to be in the room with him, in the wake of his very messy affair scandal in 2007. On the basis that he would settle down and focus on being mayor. But instead, he’s been off and running, here, there, and everywhere. It’s actually striking that he is running for governor at all. For a couple of reasons.

First, his political career would not exist absent his, his father’s, and his grandfather’s close and longstanding ties to the Brown family. Something about which the daily newspaper reporters are somehow unaware.

Second, Newsom’s relative strength among young voters is due to his championing of gay marriage. But the reality is that California would have same-sex marriage right now if not for his dunderheaded moves last year. Which may become apparent to more of his supporters at some point. Not that it actually matters for the overall, that is.

Third, Newsom doesn’t have the resources to beat Brown. He has to spend a lot of money just to get better known, and he’s not setting the world on fire with fundraising, though he is able to pay his high-priced consultants, who keep spinning away. He’s not Steve Westly, by a long shot, and Westly fell short against the far less appealing and adept than Brown Phil Angelides.

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The United Nations Charter was signed in San Francisco 64 years ago today.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

Today he is summiting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. There are a few key areas of contention for the US and Germany. Namely, Afghanistan and Russia. Though Merkel is a conservative, she is resistant to providing further assistance to the fight in Afghanistan. And her government, like the social democratic government before her, is closely aligned with Russia, where Obama goes on July 6th. Why? Energy. But Obama, while a friendly face for Moscow, has an agenda there.

Obama has met one-on-one with Merkel in the Oval Office and has held an expanded meeting with her as well.

At 8:30 AM Pacific, he holds a press conference with Merkel in the White House Rose Garden.

At 9 AM Pacific, Obama has a working lunch with Merkel in the Old Family Dining Room.

At 11:40 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 3:15 PM Pacific, Obama and Michelle Obama host a picnic for White House staff on the South Lawn.

This follows last night’s Hawaiian-style luau for staff and members of Congress.

What’s with the parties?

These folks are working very hard, as you may have gathered from the attempts here to follow it all.

Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where protests Saturday fizzled in the face of a massive security presence and violence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Sunday and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday and now Friday in Iran mostly passed quietly, with only a scattering of street protests.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

The Iranian regime, having largely shut down the protest movement, is moving now to brand it as largely an invention of foreign manipulators.

The real action in Iran may be the infighting amongst the ruling elite.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

North Korea may launch a long-range missile toward Obama’s home state of Hawaii on the 4th of July, and continues saber-rattling rhetoric and acts. The US Navy, in the form of the destroyer USS John McCain, is following the passage of a suspect North Korean ship, which is hugging the China coast, first believed headed to Singapore and then believed headed (with a cargo of missiles) to Burma. But Burmese authorities now say the ship won’t be coming there.

Does North Korea have its own Flying Dutchman?

And Obama’s new Afghanistan commander, General Stanley McChrystal, has been in country with his new leadership team for a week. He is urging his new subordinates to be very conscious of Afghan civilian sentiments even as he preps aggressive special ops programs against the Taliban.

The Pakistani Army offensive against the Taliban is widening, with troops going into the longtime jihadist stronghold of Waziristan. There have been no major terrorist bombings in reprisal for going on two weeks. But the country’s refugee problem continues.

And the US may have made a major blunder by launching a drone attack against a funeral procession in a bid to decapitate the Taliban. Many civilians were killed, and the Taliban leader escaped.

Some three million Pakistanis left their homes to avoid the offensive against the Taliban. Many refuse to return to their homes, worried that electric power and water won’t be available and not convinced that fighting between the Pakistani Army and Taliban won’t flare up again.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

The late Michael Jackson performing “Thriller” live in Germany in 1987.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Legislature, as anticipated here for months, having failed to pass the Democratic budget alternative the day before, failed to pass a stopgap measure yesterday.

The bill did pass in a bipartisan vote in the state Assembly. But that was illusory. Not only did the bill fail to garner any Republican support in the Senate, it actually lost a few Democrats.

The measure would only have dealt with about one-fifth of the actual budget problem.

Why the move? Trying to stave off the total package of budget cuts and drag out the process for a few more weeks. But … Is it likely that anything will change in the next few weeks that did not change in the last few months?

According to state Controller John Chiang, the state will have to begin issuing IOUs on July 2nd if a budget is not promptly enacted.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $36 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran. The price is down a few dollars over the past few days, reflecting an easing of some tensions in Iran.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:24:48 +0000

On June 25th, 1950, the Korean War began with North Korean invading South Korea. North Korean forces swiftly overwhelmed the opposing South Korean Army and its American allies, capturing Seoul in three days and driving the remainder of both forces nearly into the sea. After a massive effort and years of fighting, US forces managed to repel North Korea, and its ally China, to the status quo ante. North Korea, loudly saber rattling of late, retains the world’s fifth largest military.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA: WHAT’S NEXT ON IRAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

** QUICK HITS. Michael Jackson, one-time King of Pop, died today in Los Angeles at the age of 50. Cause of death? Cardiac arrest. It’s a bit mysterious, as much of his life has been since he was the biggest music star in the world in the 1980s. … Iconic TV star Farrah Fawcett died today in Santa Monica of a long-time cancer at age 62. The Charlie’s Angels star was a classic pin-up model of the ’70s and ’80s who became a serious, award-winning actress. She had publicly suffered from cancer for years and finally succumbed today. … California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis moved no closer to resolution today as Democratic legislators, their plan failing yesterday as long anticipated here and elsewhere, came up with a stopgap plan to free up some cash for a state government about to run out by cutting some school spending and delaying payments to agencies. It won Democratic and Republican votes in the Assembly but failed in the Senate, where it was opposed by all Republicans and some Democrats.

** NEW POLL: CALIFORNIANS AND INFOTECH. A new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California indicates that Californians’ use of broadband Internet connections is up significantly over the past year, but that a digital divide remains. Now 62% of Californians have broadband access, up from 55% last year. Another 5% have lower-speed Internet access. 75% of Californians say they have some form of computer.

Use of social networking media is up from 28% to 37%, though only 18% use Twitter. Among Californians under 35, Twitter usage is 31%. That’s the group that has adopted social networking in general, with 63% using it to some extent, compared with only 31% from age 35 to 54 and only 16% for 55 and up.

84% of Californians have mobile phones. 65% use text messaging, 30% use their phones to get on the web, and 29% use them for e-mail.

Now about the digital divide …

The digital divide persists between Latinos and other groups. While Latinos increased their Internet use (53% today, 48% 2008), the growth among whites was greater (88% today, 81% 2008). Whites’ computer use (89% today, 85% 2008) increased by about the same amount as Latinos’ (61% today, 58% 2008). Latinos today are far less likely to use computers and the Internet than Asians (87% computers, 85% Internet) and blacks (89%, 81%).

Nearly all high-income Californians use a computer and the Internet. Ninety-seven percent of Californians with household incomes of $80,000 or more use computers and the same percentage use the Internet. Those with household incomes of less than $40,000 are far less likely to report doing either (65% use computers, 58% use the Internet).

Intriguingly, the biggest users of social networking sites are African Americans, with 55% using them at least occasionally. 44% of Asians use social media, compared to 39% of whites and 28% of Latinos.

** WHAT NEXT IN CALIFORNIA’S CHRONIC-TURNED-CHAOTIC BUDGET CRISIS? With yesterday’s very predictable collapse of the Democratic budget plan, what’s next?

Well, unless a budget is put together very swiftly, or unless Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s budget is swiftly adopted, California’s state government will have to begin issuing IOUs in lieu of payment on July 2nd.

There are no good options here, and most of what seemed inevitable weeks ago seems inevitable today.

President Barack Obama met with five governors yesterday to discuss health care reform.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have had their daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama have also participated in a “United We Serve” volunteer service event at the Fort McNair Fitness Center.

At 10:45 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the importance of passing a new, green-oriented energy bill in the White House Rose Garden.

At 11 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with members of Congress from both parties to discuss immigration in the State Dining Room.

At 12:15 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Oval Office.

At 1 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama, Michelle Obama, and Biden host a luau for members of Congress and their families on the South Lawn of the White House.

Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where protests Saturday fizzled in the face of a massive security presence and violence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Sunday and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and now Thursday in Iran mostly passed quietly, with only a scattering of street protests.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

The Iranian regime, having largely shut down the protest movement, is moving now to brand it as largely an invention of foreign manipulators.

The real action in Iran may be the infighting amongst the ruling elite.

There are various rumors about the whereabouts and activities of opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, the former prime minister under Ayatollah Khomeini. He does seem to have urged his supporters to be more circumspect in their opposition with various symbolic acts that don’t directly challenge the Islamic state, which he says he continues to support. Communicating almost entirely through his web site, Mousavi nonethless vows to fight on, though to what effect is another matter.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Does North Korea have its own Flying Dutchman?

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Legislature, as anticipated here for months, yesterday failed to pass the Democratic budget alternative.

Not only did the bill fail to garner any Republican support, it actually lost a few Democrats.

According to state Controller John Chiang, the state will have to begin issuing IOUs on July 2nd if a budget is not promptly enacted.

From my June 23rd essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. … From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

With President Obama’s big Moscow summit coming up in less than two weeks, NWN will start focusing in on Russia/US relations. Moscow, “city of billionaires,” has taken a big hit in the great global downturn.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:22:45 +0000

A rising national Republican star, South Carolina Governor and Republican Governors Association chairman Mark Sanford, last in the spotlight for trying to refuse federal stimulus funds for his economically strapped state, has acknowledged that his disappearing act was for another reason than that offered by his staff, which had said he was hiking the Appalachian Trail. Sanford now says he spent nearly a week in Buenos Aires, Argentina carrying on an extramarital affair.

** QUICK HITS. Political infighting amongst Iranian ruling elites continued today with demonstrations mostly tamped down. The protest movement, even at its peak last week, had not grown beyond its initial demographic of the educated, professional and pro-Western. … With US combat troops scheduled to be withdrawn from Iraqi cities by the end of the month, the latest terrorist bombing in Baghdad today killed some 60 people. … Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown announced that his directive to the City of Maywood to halt the abusive practices of its police department has resulted in a stipulated court order to halt “widespread abuse and gross misconduct.” The heavily Latino city in LA County is notorious for abusive police incidents involving its residents. … Cali GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman jostled one another again, with Whitman claiming several turncoat endorsers from Poizner, who has the lion’s share of politician endorsements, and Poizner campaign chairman Jim Brulte attacking Whitman’s tenure as CEO of eBay. … San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, a darkhorse Democrat, continued touting his city’s new composting program though, after reading his column about it, I’m still not sure how it works. …

** CALIFORNIA: DEMOCRATIC BUDGET PLAN FAILS, AS LONG ANTICIPATED. As anticipated here for, well, quite awhile, the Democratic budget alternative has failed, falling far short of the two-thirds vote needed for passage in either house of the Legislature.

There’s a longer way of putting it, but you can fill in the blanks with regard to what what everyone is saying and doing.

Meanwhile, state Controller John Chiang warned today that he will soon have to issue IOUs in lieu of payment if a budget is not promptly enacted.

When would those IOUs begin being issued? July 2nd.

“Next Wednesday,” said Chiang, “we start a fiscal year with a massively unbalanced spending plan and a cash shortfall not seen since the Great Depression.”

** SANFORD NOW SAYS HE SPENT A WEEK IN SOUTH AMERICA HAVING AN AFFAIR. Resigning his post as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, a staunch family values conservative last in the spotlight for joining with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in trying to refuse federal economic stimulus funds, just admitted that he was not hiking along the Appalachian Trail, as his staff maintained, or sightseeing in South America, as Sanford said earlier this morning, but enjoying a week-long tryst with a girlfriend in romantic Buenos Aires.

It’s virtually impossible to make this stuff up.

Sanford had disappeared for nearly a week, missing Father’s Day weekend with his wife and four sons. He now says he’s been conducting an affair with an Argentinian woman for months and that his wife knows about it.

Sanford said he had considered hiking on the Appalachian Trail, an activity he said he has enjoyed since he was a high school student.

“But I said ‘no’ I wanted to do something exotic,” Sanford said “… It’s a great city,” referring to Buenos Aires.

During his week-long fling, it was entirely unclear who was in charge of the Palmetto State.

** IRANIAN REGIME STIFLES PLANNED DEMONSTRATION. A huge security presence today broke up a planned rally in Tehran by supporters of opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who distanced himself from the rally by calling it an independent effort. Hundreds came nonetheless, and were forcibly dispersed by Iranian police. A number of reports say that several protesters were beaten.

** GALLUP POLL: PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN MILITARY SOARS WHILE CONFIDENCE IN BANKS PLUMMETS TO BIG BUSINESS LEVEL. The new Gallup Poll shows that public confidence in the US military has shot up 11 points in the past year, while confidence in banks has sunk below that of TV news to right around that in big business, lowest of all institutions.

Organized labor doesn’t do very well, either. Confidence in small business is very high. Confidence in the presidency has shot upwards, while confidence in Congress remains low.

At 82%, the percentage of Americans’ expressing high confidence in the U.S. military has returned to where it was at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003. Public confidence in the military is up 11 percentage points from a year ago, and nearly matches the record-high 85% found during the 1991 Gulf War.

Even with the military’s relatively low confidence ratings from 2004 through 2007 — a period of broad public doubt about U.S. success in Iraq — the organization has ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions list almost every year since the measure was instituted in 1973, and has been No. 1 continuously since 1998.

According to the June 14-17 survey, small business ranks second among the 16 institutions tested this year, with a 67% confidence rating. The next-most-highly regarded U.S. institutions are the police, the church or organized religion, and the presidency. All of these entities elicit high confidence from a majority of Americans. …

At the same time, confidence in banks fell by 10 points, from 32% in June 2008 to a record-low 22% today. The previous low point for banks was 30% in October 1991. …

The transition from the generally unpopular presidency of George W. Bush to the broadly popular presidency of Barack Obama has had a clear impact on Americans’ willingness to express high levels of confidence in the presidency, and most likely also explains the smaller confidence boosts seen for other aspects of government, including Congress, the Supreme Court, the criminal justice system, and the public schools.

The increase in the already-high confidence levels in the military could be the result of several factors, including the improved political and military situation in Iraq and the setting of target dates for the withdrawal of most U.S. troops from that country.

The near-collapse of U.S. financial markets last fall and recent bankruptcies within the auto industry are obviously key contributors to reduced confidence in big business and banks. The increased confidence Americans show toward small business may simply be the natural result of contrasting small business with big business.

President Barack Obama addressed the brutal crackdown by the Iranian regime. Protests have largely dissipated.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has had his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors, all in the Oval Office.

It’s a big day for health care, with Obama meeting with five governors in the afternoon and holding a nationally televised town hall meeting on ABC in the evening.

At 11 AM Pacific, Obama meets with Governors Granholm, Douglas, Doyle, Rounds, and Gregoire to discuss health care in the Roosevelt Room.

At 5 PM Pacific, Obama participates in a town hall on health care in the East Room. The event will be televised by ABC News.

Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where protests Saturday fizzled in the face of a massive security presence and violence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Sunday and Monday and Tuesday in Iran mostly passed quietly, with only a scattering of street protests. There was reportedly one protest, with a few thousand people, so far today.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

The Iranian regime, having largely shut down the protest movement, is moving now to brand it as largely an invention of foreign manipulators.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

North Korea may launch a long-range missile toward Obama’s home state of Hawaii on the 4th of July, and continues saber-rattling rhetoric and acts. The US Navy is following the passage of a suspect North Korean ship, which is hugging the China coast, first believed headed to Singapore and now believed headed (with a cargo of missiles) to Burma.

And Obama’s new Afghanistan commander, General Stanley McChrystal, has been in country with his new leadership team for a week.

Many Pakistani refugees, concerned about lack of electricity and not convinced that the fighting between the army and the Taliban is over, are refusing to return to their homes.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly focusing on California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Legislature is expected to take up a Democratic budget proposal today. The plan includes big cuts but preserves longstanding social safety net programs rather than eliminates them, while adding another round of tax hikes and cutting into a budget reserve that Schwarzenegger says is mostly illusory. Its prospects seem dim.

All right. Its prospects seem non-existent.

I understand that people in the Capitol feel they need to play their roles. But that doesn’t make the play all that interesting.

From my new essay.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. …

From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $35 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran. The price is down a few dollars over the past few days, reflecting an easing of some tensions in Iran.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Non-Random Notes

Bill Bradley — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 16:17:49 +0000

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

President Barack Obama focused on Iran and health care in today’s White House press conference.

** QUICK HITS. Another relatively quiet day in Iran, where protests have largely evaporated since last Friday’s speech by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a violent crackdown Saturday by security forces against the much smaller number of protesters who showed on Saturday. … The meeting between US special envoy George Mitchell and Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to jump-start the Mideast peace process has been postponed. … Defense Secretary Bob Gates established a new joint command to deal with cyberspace threats. Cyberspace Command gets up and running in October. …

** TESLA SCORES BIG SUPPORT. California-based Tesla Motors scored big today with the US Department of Energy. Energy Secretary Steve Chu, a Californian, announced that Tesla is getting $465 million in federal loans as part of a program to stimulate new vehicle development.

Tesla, which is headquartered in San Carlos, will use $365 million for the engineering and assembly of the Model S, a sedan scheduled to go on sale in 2011. The car, which is a follow-on to the high-end and highly-regarded sports car the Tesla Roadster, will go 300 miles on an electric charge.

The other $100 million of Tesla’s federal funding will go to a plant manufacturing powertrains.

Former state Controller Steve Westly, now a Silicon Valley venture capitalist and a member of the Tesla board of directors, was naturally delighted, saying: “At precisely the time the American auto industry is retrenching (some would say crumbling) Tesla is about to add 1,000 new auto manufacturing jobs in California.

“I think this is a testament to California’s being the nation’s innovation leader. It’s also a reminder that California still has a lot to offer.”

The Obama Administration is also loaning $5.9 billion to Ford and $1.6 billion to Nissan, all for the purpose of developing new vehicles to help carmakers meet much more stringent fuel efficiency standards.

Finally some good news for California.

** JERRY BROWN’S BIG EDGE. A poll by Sacramento pollster Jim Moore shows former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown with a big lead over San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the Democratic primary for governor of California.

It’s Brown 43%, Newsom 26%.

This is before active campaigning by Brown, who has not declared his candidacy. Newsom declared months ago and has been campaigning for months.

Brown has no campaign staff, although he does have a network of old friends, along with his wife and 2006 campaign manager Anne Gust Brown, who is the unpaid special counsel to the attorney general. Newsom rolls with a large entourage of guys, as I’ve mentioned in passing, and has a number of very high-priced consultants on payroll.

In addition to a big lead, Brown has a big edge financially. Newsom, unlike former state Controller Steve Westly, who is not running, in 2006, is not in a position to self-fund his candidacy to a substantial degree, though he was wealthy prior to the big recession. His restaurant and wine holdings have apparently taken a major downturn, according to former Assembly Speaker and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, who created Newsom’s career by appointing him to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.

Newsom has been fashioning himself as an Obama for California. But there are a few problems. For one thing, Newsom was a national co-chairman of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, and attacked Obama last year. Everyone on his staff backed Clinton over Obama. One of his key advisors ran an anti-Obama 527 “independent expenditure” committee during the primaries, which I revealed at the time. For another, it’s very hard to claim that the famously iconoclastic Brown is an establishment politician.

Newsom chief strategist Garry South, who kept trying to position his then client Gray Davis as far more “safe” and routine than Davis’s former boss Brown, is well aware of this, though he postures otherwise now to serve his new client.

When First Lady Michelle Obama visited San Francisco yesterday, California First Lady Maria Shriver, who did support Obama in the primaries – and whose husband, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is a key Obama ally – was her host. Newsom was not much in evidence.

I am not convinced that Newsom will end up running in next year’s primary.

** OBAMA STAYS OUT OF IRANIAN ELECTION RESULTS AND CRITICIZES REGIME CRACKDOWN. In his press conference, just now, President Barack Obama said it’s up to Iran to determine its government. He also said that Iran’s government has acted in defiance of “international norms” in its harsh and violent treatment of protesters. Following his statement, Obama called on a Huffington Post correspondent to take a question that came from an Iranian via HuffPost. Obama said, in answer to a question about under what conditions he will accept the legitimacy of Iran’s renewed government: “It is not too late for the Iranian government to recognize that there is a peaceful path that will lead to prosperity and stability. We hope they will take it.”

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

The fiance of Neda, the young Iranian woman apparently shot by Iranian security forces on Saturday, tells the story. Demonstrations against the regime have petered out.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has had the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors, all in the Oval Office.

At 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama holds a news conference in the Rose Garden. Major topics will include Iran, health care, North Korea, and the economy.

At 11:15 AM Pacific, Obama meets one-on-one with President Michelle Bachelet of Chile in the Oval Office.

At 11:45 AM Pacific, Obama holds an expanded meeting with President Michelle Bachelet of Chile in the Oval Office.

At 1:15 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in the Oval Office.

Obama is of course monitoring the situation in Iran, where protests Saturday fizzled in the face of a massive security presence and violence ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Sunday and Monday and now Tuesday in Iran have mostly passed quietly, with only a scattering of street protests.

The time in Tehran is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of California.

Obama is also closely monitoring several other crises: In North Korea, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

The Pakistani Army offensive against the Taliban is widening. There have been no major terrorist bombings in reprisal for most of the last week.

And Obama’s new Afghanistan commander, General Stanley McChrystal, has been in country with his new leadership team for a week.

Iran, of course, is the big ponderable, if not imponderable. See my column linked below.

[There is a video that cannot be displayed in this feed. Visit the blog entry to see the video.]

Ed McMahon, longtime sidekick to Tonight Show host Johnny Carson, died this morning at UCLA Medical Center. He was 86.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger engages in private meetings and discussion around California’s chronic-turned-chaotic budget crisis.

Schwarzenegger will join First Lady Maria Shriver tonight at the California Museum in Sacramento to deliver remarks at the opening of the Library of Congress’ “With Malice Toward None: The Abraham Lincoln Bicentennial Exhibition.”

In this 200th anniversary year of the birth of Lincoln, this exhibition of Lincoln objects is the nation’s most comprehensive collection of 200 artifacts dedicated to the 16th president. The California Museum is the first of five stops on the national tour and the only stop on the West Coast.

Schwarzenegger’s speech will be webcast live at 6:45 PM at www.gov.ca.gov.

It’s a particularly tricky question for Obama, because he has an unusual dual role to play: Inspirational global icon and president of the United States.

As the president of the United States, it’s Obama’s job to figure out the needs of America and go about meeting them. As a global icon, he is expected to inspire. …

From my June 19th column.

Most focus simply on the Cairo speech. But that speech exists in a larger context, alongside the speech over the weekend in Normandy which bookended it on Obama’s second big international tour.

** REPOSITIONING AMERICA: OBAMA’S CAIRO SPEECH AS THE ULTIMATE IN EVENT MARKETING. In the biggest example of event marketing that comes to mind, President Barack Obama used his ballyhooed speech today at Cairo University to reposition America in the Muslim and Arab worlds.

“I have come here,” he said, “to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world; one based upon mutual interest and mutual respect; and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles — principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.”

The fact is that Obama didn’t really say anything new. The positions he laid out are positions he had in his campaign. But he did say it all at once, and quite well. He did say it in a 50-minute address aimed directly at the Muslim and Arab worlds. He did say it in Cairo, largest city in the Arab world and a critical city in the history of Islam. And he did say it at the leading modern university in Egypt in an event co-sponsored by the world’s chief center of Arabic literature, the ancient Al-Azhar University.

In that sense, to borrow a phrase from Marshall McLuhan, the medium is the message. The context is the key to the effort.

In an even larger sense, the message is himself. Both who he is, and who he is not. … From my June 4th column.

** TERMINATING THE DARKNESS: HOPE FLOATS, BUT ANXIETY ABIDES. … From my May 31st column.

** THE AVOIDABLE TRAGEDY OF CALIFORNIA’S PROP 8. … From my May 26th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW CALIFORNIA-BASED CLIMATE POLICY: SIX KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my May 20th column.

** 24 AND THE TORTUOUS POLITICS OF TORTURE. … From my May 18th column.

** ANGELS AND DEMONS AND RELIGIOUS POLITICS. … From my May 15th column.

** WHAT DOES OBAMA’S AFGHAN COMMAND CHANGE MEAN? … From my May 13th column.

** THE HYPE FLU’S BIG FADE. … From my May 11th column.

** STAR TREK‘S NEW COMING-OF-AGE SAGA FOR GENERATION O. … From my May 8th column.

You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.

This is up about $33 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, due in part to some positive economic signs and in part to geopolitical jitters over North Korea and Iran. The price is down a few dollars over the past few days, reflecting an easing of some tensions in Iran.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.