New West Notes

Weekend Edition

Bill Bradley — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 20:01:02 +0000

On the day after several hundred protesters were reportedly massacred by regime forces, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution backing an Arab League peace plan that calls for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down. The vote was 13-2 in favor of the resolution. In blistering remarks, Ambassador Susan Rice says the US is “disgusted” by the vetoes.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

For days, the United Nations Security Council struggled behind the scenes for a resolution condemning the Syrian regime that wouldn’t be vetoed by Russia. Yesterday’s State Department briefing was a study in the diplomatic dance.

But today, with some 250 protesters reportedly massacred yesterday by Assad regime forces in Homs, on the 30th anniversary of massacres infamously carried out by his father, the US, UK, France, and Arab League pressed ahead with their resolution calling for Assad to step away from the presidency.

The resolution garnered all the votes on the UN Security Council save two. But because those two are Russia and China, and they are among the five permanent members of the Security Council, the resolution failed despite winning numerically, 13-2.

US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice delivered a blistering statement to the Security Council in the wake of the vetoes, as you can see above.

Obama issued a very strong statement today prior to the UN vote, as you can see below.

“Thirty years after his father massacred tens of thousands of innocent Syrian men, women, and children in Hama, Bashar al-Assad has demonstrated a similar disdain for human life and dignity. Yesterday the Syrian government murdered hundreds of Syrian citizens, including women and children, in Homs through shelling and other indiscriminate violence, and Syrian forces continue to prevent hundreds of injured civilians from seeking medical help. These brutal killings take place at a time when so many Syrians are also marking a deeply meaningful day for their faith. I strongly condemn the Syrian government’s unspeakable assault against the people of Homs and I offer my deepest sympathy to those who have lost loved ones. Assad must halt his campaign of killing and crimes against his own people now. He must step aside and allow a democratic transition to proceed immediately.

“The Syrian people demonstrated in large numbers across Syria yesterday to participate in peaceful protests commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Hama massacre. They labeled the protests, “We are Sorry, Hama – Forgive Us.” We owe it to the victims of Hama and Homs to learn one lesson: that cruelty must be confronted for the sake of justice and human dignity. Every government has the responsibility to protect its citizens, and any government that brutalizes and massacres its people does not deserve to govern. The Syrian regime’s policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community.

“The international community must work to protect the Syrian people from this abhorrent brutality. Earlier this week, our Arab partners called on UN Security Council members to take action to support a political solution to the crisis in Syria and stop Assad’s “killing machine.” The Council now has an opportunity to stand against the Assad regime’s relentless brutality and to demonstrate that it is a credible advocate for the universal rights that are written into the UN Charter.

“We must work with the Syrian people toward building a brighter future for Syria. A Syria without Assad could be a Syria in which all Syrians are subject to the rule of law and where minorities are able to exercise their legitimate rights and uphold their identities and traditions while acting as fully enfranchised citizens in a unified republic. The United States and our international partners support the Syrian people in achieving their aspirations and will continue to assist the Syrian people toward that goal. We will help because we stand for principles that include universal rights for all people and just political and economic reform. The suffering citizens of Syria must know: we are with you, and the Assad regime must come to an end.”

And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meeting today on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pushed hard for a breakthrough, but got nowhere.

In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discussed fairness and prosperity as he continued to push his “An America Built To Last” theme, focusing on the housing/mortgage crisis.

Russia, as Rice bitterly notes in her remarks, continues to sell weapons to the Assad regime.

So why are Russia, which has borne the brunt of criticism this week, and China — which emerged from the closet to join in the unusual dual veto at the Security Council — protecting the Assad regime?

Both countries’ leaderships are deeply unsettled by the Arab Awakening. Why? Because it is sweeping away longtime allies, such as Gaddafi in Libya and now, quite possibly, Assad in Syria, who is Russia’s most important ally in the ME.

And because both countries have nascent protest movements which the ruling parties find deeply troubling.

Russia’s gets more publicity because the news media, both domestic and international is afforded more freedom of coverage there. But China is, if anything, even more repressive, freely shutting down Internet access, for example, in ways which would not be tolerated in Russia, and simply blocking international news media from access in some instances.

None of this is new for China. It is a bit new for Russia, which had opened much more to the West during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, which is now drawing to an end. With the return of Vladimir Putin, whom I’ve met and is one steely son of a gun, to the presidency, the friendly face of the Kremlin is being replaced.

And with the US slowly but surely disentangling itself from its Iraq and Afghanistan entanglements, US interests are more apt to bump up against those of China — as we are seeing in the Asia Pacific region — and Russia, which has been quite helpful in Afghanistan.

So both Russia and China are against establishing a humanitarian interventionist rationale in the internal affairs of countries, a rationale which they fear over the long term could be applied against themselves. And as a result are developing a narrative, as you can see by watching Russia Today, that the US, NATO, and selected Arab powers are engaged in a new imperialist conspiracy.

But Syria is only one place where the big powers are running up against one another.

Another potential flash point exists around Iran.

With talk of Israeli air strikes on Iran again spiking, red hots on the ultra-left are positing an Obama Administration conspiracy with the Jewish state to wage war on the peace-loving Islamic republic while red hots on the far right see the administration as cravenly selling out plucky Zionists taking on the necessary civilizational struggle. Heaven deliver us from loons of both persuasions.

Iran embarked on another set of military exercises today. Initially, at least, they are land and air-based, not naval. Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. But it also warned the US not to have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf, and USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group confidently steamed right back in there. Not that the Iranians couldn’t present some problems in that bathtub.

China is an advocate of Iran, again receiving little notice in the tunnel vision US media, flatly refusing US and European Union entreaties to stop buying Iranian oil as a means of leveraging more pressure on the Islamic republic to drop its nuclear weapons program.

Russia, as one of the world’s leading oil powers, has no interest in buying Iranian oil. And its interests are more complex, since I don’t believe that the Kremlin wants Iran, a current ally of a sort but a rival over the sweep of history, to become a nuclear power, either. Yet it does not want the US and its allies to have their way in the Middle East, either.

While all this goes, Nevada’s Republicans are holding their rather sad afterthought presidential caucuses today.

With Newt Gingrich’s Silver State campaign in evident disarray and Ron Paul’s strength decidedly less than advertised, Mitt Romney is poised for a big Nevada win.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

With the current state budget creaking under strain and Democratic legislators opposing more near-term budget cuts (while Republicans oppose tax hikes), Brown signed legislation yesterday allowing nearly $900 million in internal borrowing from specialized funds.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED. One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.

The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.

In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions.

In the 2008 cycle, with the firm backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who represents the Silver State, the Democrats elevated Nevada into the First Four, along with traditional one and two Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, as a way to get their candidates ready to compete in the West, a growing area targeted for competition.

It worked.

The first forum, in 2007, with the Democratic presidential candidates took place not in Washington or New York or even Iowa or New Hampshire, but in little Carson City, the capital of Nevada. Hosted by George Stephanopoulos, who memorably mispronounced Nevada in the process, drawing hoots from the crowd, it drew much of the East Coast-based national political media away from their usual haunts.

Las Vegas went on to host some stirring debates between the Democratic presidential contenders.

And on the day of the 2008 Democratic presidential caucuses in Nevada, no less than former President Bill Clinton personally lobbied caucus-goers in a raucous display inside one of the voting gatherings in a casino on the Las Vegas Strip. … From my February 3rd column.

** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE? What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls.

Florida answered several key questions about the race. Would Gingrich blow it (again)? Would Romney buy it? Would the negative out-weigh the positive? Would Gingrich give up if he lost?

** Would Gingrich blow it (again)?

Let us count the ways. Or, mercifully, let us not. I’m not a fan of the media culture’s rampant practice of distance psychoanalysis, though my long-ago psychology minor undoubtedly qualifies me. (That’s a little joke.) But the ex-House speaker does not seem to thrive when he is in the leading role. Perhaps he is more comfortable as the anti-hero, notwithstanding his constant comparisons of himself to some of the most famous protagonists in history.

Gingrich had the chance to take command of the race in November and December. Instead, he declared himself the nominee and then allowed Romney and others to take him down.

In Florida, after he trounced Romney in the state that no Republican nominee has ever lost, Gingrich delivered two meandering debate performances, failed to deliver a consistent positive message, failed to deliver a focused negative message, and allowed the attacks of his enemies to derail him into the defensive politics of personal aggrievement.

** Would Romney buy it? Of course he would. After all, he made his vast fortune as a corporate takeover specialist. … From my February 2nd column.

** REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD. … From my January 30th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and world class track star Robert Griffin III (aka RG3) of Baylor University in Texas closed out the National Prayer Breakfast, where he was the personal guest of President Barack Obama, on Thursday. He promised not to dunk on the president in any basketball game they might play.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $97.84 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:47:41 +0000

Birther billionaire and self-publicist extraordinaire Donald Trump’s endorsement of Mitt Romney yesterday in Las Vegas continues to reverberate as the signature event of the disappointing Nevada Republican presidential caucuses.

** QUICK HITS. The United Nations Security Council is still struggling behind the scenes for a resolution condemning the Syrian regime that won’t be vetoed by Russia. Today’s State Department briefing was a study in the diplomatic dance. … With talk of Israeli air strikes on Iran again spiking, red hots on the ultra-left are positing an Obama Administration conspiracy with the Jewish state to wage war on the peace-loving Islamic republic while red hots on the far right see the administration as cravenly selling out plucky Zionists taking on the necessary civilizational struggle. Heaven deliver us from loons of both persuasions. … In California politics, with the current state budget creaking under strain and Democratic legislators opposing more near-term budget cuts (while Republicans oppose tax hikes), Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation allowing nearly $900 million in internal borrowing from specialized funds.

** NEW SURVEY: CONSUMER SPENDING DECLINES IN JANUARY, POST-HOLIDAYS. After a new jobs report that is so good that Fox News has buried the news, some more routine economic news is contained in a new Gallup Poll survey.

Consumer spending dropped in January.

As expected.

The drop is similar to what has occurred in recent years every month after the holidays. And it was nowhere near what it was in 2009.

This is pretty routine news. But it is important to show that consumers haven’t retrenched in any out of the ordinary way after a promising holiday season.

Americans’ self-reported daily spending averaged $63 in January, down from $76 in December but similar to the January spending levels in each of the last three years. Further, the $13 decline in average daily spending between December 2011 and January 2012 is typical of the post-holiday shopping season decline that Gallup has seen since 2010. …

January spending in 2009 dropped by $25 — more than Gallup has typically seen in four years of tracking this metric daily. This echoed the decline in Americans’ confidence in the economy around the same time as problems in the labor, housing, and stock markets ensuing from the global financial crisis dominated economic news. Spending has largely been subdued ever since, and the spikes in self-reported spending seen each December have quickly ended each January. …

From my new column.

President Barack Obama hailed a new jobs report out today as more good news about the economy. But he cautioned that the unemployment rate may still go up and down in the coming months.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

Obama then met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

Following that, Obama delivered remarks on the economy at Fire Station #5 in Arlington, Virginia.

At 11:45 AM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel in Washington.

Obama got some very good news this morning.

The US unemployment rate has fallen for the fifth straight month with a surge in hiring during January.

The Labor Department says that employers added 243,000 jobs in January. That’s the most in nine months.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% from 8.5% in December. Which is the lowest in three years.

All of which is very good news for Obama.

Now for the bad news.

Talk of an Israeli strike on Iran is ramping up again. Ramped up by a variety of comments from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who says he doesn’t think that sanctions are stopping the Iranian nuclear weapon program.

So Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ventured forth today in Tehran, addressing a rally to warn Israel and the US of harsh consequences for any such attack and vowing ongoing support to the various enemies of Israel.

Which was an unusual public confirmation of Iran’s role in international terrorism.

Iran will help any nation or group that confronts the “cancer” Israel, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said today in Tehran. He also warned that any military strike by Israel or the US would only make Iran stronger.

Of course, the Iranians believe that Israel is behind a spate of assassinations and other attacks on its citizens engaged in the Iranian nuclear program.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes maneuvering at the UN continues over Syria, and Russia’s refusal to go along with a move calling for a new president.

Today should see some resolution around, er, a resolution for the UN Security Council. The US, Britain, and France have enough votes to pass language drafted by the Arab League calling for the ouster of the Assad regime. But Russia threatens to veto any such resolution.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is off to the annual Munich Security Conference, where these and other such matters are very much on the agenda.

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is meeting in Brussels with NATO defense ministers.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Yesterday, he appointed his longtime friend and close advisor Tom Quinn to the Little Hoover Commission, which serves as a governmental watchdog and promoter of efficiencies.

Quinn was senior advisor in Brown’s latest campaign, and was his first campaign manager, dating back to his 1969 run for the LA Community College Board, his 1970 run for California secretary of state, and his 1974 election as governor of California.

Quinn, who is in the radio business, served in the first Brown administration as an environmental secretary and head of the Air Resources Board.

NWN revealed his involvement in Brown’s 2010 campaign, which had previously been secret — Quinn is a very senior member of what I call the Network — when he showed up with the then attorney general for a meeting with then Governor Arnold Schwarznegger prior to a key debate with Meg Whitman.

The Millionaires Tax initiative is about to hit the streets in a signature-gathering bid in California. The California Nurses Association, adept at getting controversial publicity but not a major funder, has joined a coalition of left-liberal groups of which the deepest pocket is the California Federation of Teachers, also not one of the big labor funders.

The big unions, such as the main teachers union, which play much more of a role in winning elections are coming on board with Governor Jerry Brown’s initiative, which also raises taxes on the rich but is less likely to draw business opposition.

Brown sent language to the California legislature yesterday afternoon on public pension reform, which drew fire from a labor-backed group opposed to any further reforms of a system judged by most to be very troubled.

While Brown wrestles with the problems of governance in California, his predecessor, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has wrapped up a trip to India.

There, in the capital city New Delhi, Schwarzenegger addressed the annual Delhi Sustainable Development Summit on Thursday.

The DSDS is organized by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) — headed by UN climate chief Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, who has taken part in California conferences hosted by Schwarzenegger and Brown — and has emerged as an important forum on global sustainability issues.

This is part of the run-up to the Earth Summit later this year in Rio de Janeiro.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** Would Romney buy it? Of course he would. After all, he made his vast fortune as a corporate takeover specialist. … From my February 2nd column.

** REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD. California is in the midst of a big experiment in political reform, which has already led to a huge defeat for an increasingly right-wing Republican Party. Open primaries have replaced partisan primaries and redistricting has been taken away from the politicians, with each disrupting comfy old arrangements. Though these moves, adopted by initiative, were heavily backed by then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, they’ve been heavily opposed by most Republicans.

The California Republican Party put most of its remaining marbles on a desperate bid to derail the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The effort went on for more than a year, first to undermine and try to de-legitimize the work of the commission set up by initiative to take legislative and congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislators — a commission which, mind you, had an over-representation of Republicans on it — and then to block the state Senate districts by a referendum. …

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall, and on other major fronts. … From my January 30th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

NASA has released the first ever moving images of the dark side of the Moon, filmed by the spacecraft GRAIL, run out of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $17 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:23:03 +0000

Mitt and Ann Romney were thrilled to be on hand at noon time today in Las Vegas to receive Donald Trump’s endorsement. This event took place at Trump’s resort casino and hotel on the Vegas Strip. You already know what it’s called.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.

** QUICK HITS. Good news on the economic front, US jobless claims have dropped again. … The Millionaires Tax initiative is about to hit the streets in a signature-gathering bid in California. The California Nurses Association, adept at getting controversial publicity but not a major funder, has joined a coalition of left-liberal groups of which the deepest pocket is the California Federation of Teachers, also not one of the big labor funders. … The big unions, such as the main teachers union, which play much more of a role in winning elections are coming on board with Governor Jerry Brown’s initiative, which also raises taxes on the rich but is less likely to draw business opposition. … Brown sent language to the California legislature today on public pension reform, which drew fire from a labor-backed group opposed to any further reforms of a system judged by most to be very troubled.

** SILVER STATE SIDESHOW: AFTER FIRST SIGNALING A GINGRICH ENDORSEMENT, DONALD TRUMP ENDORSES MITT ROMNEY AT HIS VEGAS CASINO (TRUMP’S CASINO, THAT IS). This is just sad. Nevada, ignored for months despite its careful placement in the first four Republican presidential contests, officially became a rather freakish sideshow today when Donald Trump endorsed Mitt Romney for president at his eponymous casino on the Vegas Strip.

After first signaling a Newt Gingrich endorsement.

The whole idea of having Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina go first — a concept completely disrupted by Florida barreling in there — is to have four states from the Midwest, the East, the West, and the South in which candidates can compete without having to have megabucks. And to force the candidates and their campaigns to embrace and deal with regional concerns.

It hasn’t happened. I’ll get into the why in the upcoming essay.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Sun can handle the Trump sideshow that the Nevada story has so appallingly become.

Mitt Romney accepted the Donald’s endorsement in the lobby of Trump’s glittering golden tower on the Las Vegas Strip.

“There are some things you just can’t imagine in your life,” Romney said as he accepted the endorsement. “This is one of them.”

Trump, who has been a household name thanks to his television show “The Apprentice,” became a force in the presidential fray when he toyed with a presidential bid of his own. Ever the publicity man, he stoked speculation about that potential bid through the Florida primary – but his endorsement of Romney Thursday appeared sincere and emphatic.

“It’s my honor, real honor, and privilege to endorse Mitt Romney,” Trump told a group of about 80 guests and a gaggle of press in his hotel. “He’s smart. He’s sharp. He’s not going to allow bad things to continue to happen to this country we all love. So Governor Romney, go out and get ‘em. You can do it.”

Trump refrained from using any of his stock catch phrases – “you’re fired” – or engaging in any self-promotion while offering his support to Romney.

But no matter what Trump says, the main challenge of a Trump endorsement is making it about the candidate, not Trump.

“Of course, I’m looking for the endorsement of the people of Nevada,” Romney said immediately after thanking Trump for his endorsement – which he then parsed for the crowd in practical terms.

“Donald Trump has shown an extraordinary ability to understand how our economy works. He’s done it here in Nevada, he’s done it across the country,” Romney continued. “I spent my life in the private sector — not quite as successful as this guy, but successful nonetheless. Sufficiently successful that I understand what it takes to get America to be the most attractive place in the world for innovators, entrepreneurs and business, job creators.”

Romney’s Nevada supporters spun Trump’s endorsement in the same manner, with a reserved appreciation for the humorous light in which a Trump endorsement will be received.

GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich, saying his is a campaign of “people power vs. money power,” criticized rival Mitt Romney’s comment that he was, “Not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.” In Las Vegas, Gingrich touted his own plan to put the unemployed to work.

** NEW SURVEY: DEMOCRATS’ EDGE IN PARTISAN I.D. DOWN IN MORE STATES. A new Gallup Poll survey contains some sobering news for those who imagine that the destructive shenanigans of the far right in last year’s Congress has led to a rebound in support for Democrats across the country.

In fact, the Democratic edge in partisan identification — which takes into account the leanings of independent voters when pushed to go Democratic or Republicans — disappeared in more states last year.

(An example of partisan identification: California has an electorate with 44% Democratic registration, 30% Republican registration, and 21% independent or “decline to state” registration. That is a record for independents. When Gallup pushes Californian voters to choose Democratic or Republican as a partisan identifier, it’s 47% Democratic to 34% Republican. Independents essentially split, in defiance of a consistent trope among highly partisan Democrats who insist that most independents are really Democrats.)

This continued a big trend in the states away from Democratic-identifying states since the smashing Democratic victories of 2008.

Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents’ party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008. Meanwhile, 19 states including the District of Columbia showed a solid or leaning Democratic orientation, down from 23 in 2010 and 36 in 2008. The remaining 15 states were relatively balanced politically, with neither party having a clear advantage.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 10:30 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.

** Would Romney buy it? Of course he would. After all, he made his vast fortune as a corporate takeover specialist. …

From my new column.

A leaked NATO report claims the Taliban are preparing to retake control of Afghanistan when the alliance’s troops leave in 2014. The top secret report, which Britain’s ‘The Times’ newspaper claims was compiled by the US military, also says Pakistan’s intelligence service has been helping the Taliban mount attacks against foreign forces.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then delivered remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast at the Washington Hilton, where he was joined by First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and world class track star Robert Griffin III (RG3!), and others.

At 9 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 10 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet for lunch in the Oval Office.

At 10:30 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 11 AM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

Obama and Clinton are in the midst of some complex maneuvers around Syria and Iran.

At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner in the Oval Office.

As discussed here on NWN yesterday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the US will end combat operations in Afghanistan in 2013, a year earlier than previously thought.

Campaigning last night in Las Vegas, Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney denounced the move, saying that we must fight on in the Afghan War.

A poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Romney leading Newt Gingrich heading into Saturday’s Nevada presidential caucuses, 45-25, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul trailing far behind with 11% and 9%, respectively.

Paul is seriously under-performing his previous Nevada strength here.

Donald Trump, after reports yesterday that he would endorse Gingrich, now seems set to endorse Romney at a noontime event at the modestly titled Trump International Hotel and Tower on the Vegas Strip.

Back in what we laughingly call the real world, John McCain also denounced the Afghan War move, saying it is a mistake to let the enemy know when combat operations will end.

But the Obama Administration has been signaling for some time its desire to wind down the Afghan War, which is not going well, coordinating with Qatar’s efforts to have the Taliban set up a “foreign office” in Doha the better to facilitate negotiations.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes maneuvering at the UN continues over Syria, and Russia’s refusal to go along with a move calling for a new president.

Yeseterday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a chummy meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in which the Kremlin bete noire, whose little nation fought an ill-considered war with Russia in 2008, said of his meeting Monday with President Barack Obama that he is “totally elated because I heard everything I wanted to hear.”

The US, UK, and France have all united with the Arab League behind a resolution saying Assad must go. But Russia, feeling burned by the regime change of Libya and loathe to lose another ally in Arab world — and loathe to allow the doctrine of humanitarian intervention to take hold — remains opposed.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

As Facebook’s boss Mark Zuckerberg unveiled plans for the biggest ever initial public offering of shares by an internet company he also made it clear he will continue to exercise almost complete control over the company, leaving investors with little say.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom said yesterday that Governor Jerry Brown “lacks the vision for greatness.” This after Brown is coming under fire for thinking very big in his State of the State despite the state’s chronic budget crisis. Odd. Newsom, who dropped out in 2009 from his 2010 primary race against Brown, has consistently found ways to screw up his relationship with the governor.

As expected, Facebook announced its IPO, for sometime in the spring, saying it will sell between $5 billion and $10 billion worth of stock, valuing the social network service at $75 billion to $100 billion.

Naturally, Republican legislators immediately said that anticipated revenue from the deal means that the state doesn’t need new ongoing revenue for use in ending its chronic budget crisis.

And Democratic legislators said that Brown doesn’t need to pursue near-term budget cuts.

There must be something inducing stupidity in Sacramento’s water supply.

Or perhaps just in the Capitol Building itself.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall, and on other major fronts. … From my January 30th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 18:04:02 +0000

The chief UN nuclear inspector has declared that there is still “a lot of work” to be done regarding Iran, as he returned from a visit to the country.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?

** QUICK HITS. As behind the scenes maneuvering at the UN continues over Syria, and Russia’s refusal to go along with a move calling for a new president, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a chummy meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in which the Kremlin bete noire, whose little nation fought an ill-considered war with Russia in 2008, said of his meeting Monday with President Barack Obama that he is “totally elated because I heard everything I wanted to hear.” … In California politics, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom said today that Governor Jerry Brown “lacks the vision for greatness.” This after Brown is coming under fire for thinking very big in his State of the State despite the state’s chronic budget crisis. Odd. Newsom, who dropped out in 2009 from his 2010 primary race against Brown, has consistently found ways to screw up his relationship with the governor. … Brown today appointed Kimiko Burton, daughter of state Democratic chairman John Burton, to the personnel board. … As expected, Facebook announced its IPO today, for sometime in the spring, saying it will sell between $5 billion and $10 billion worth of stock, valuing the social network service at $75 billion to $100 billion. If it only weren’t such an irritating and privacy-intruding waste of time …

** FIRST IRAQ, NOW AFGHANISTAN: U.S. REDEPLOYMENT FOR FUTURE CONTINGENCIES ACCELERATES WITH PANETTA ANNOUNCEMENT. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced today that the US will move out of its combat role in Afghanistan in 2013, transitioning to a training and advisory role only with Afghan government forces a year earlier than most had expected.

The move comes in the wake of France seeming to upset the apple cart the other day with its announcement that it is pulling back immediately from active operations in Afghanistan following the latest murder of NATO troops — in this case four French soldiers shot to death by one Afghan — by Afghan soldiers under their direction and training.

It also comes a few months after President Barack Obama journeyed to the Asia Pacific region to declare it — and other contingencies such as a nuclear weaponized Iran — to be the major new focus of US geopolitical strategy after a decade of largely fruitless war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Panetta’s remarks to reporters traveling with him to a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels showed how the foreign military role in Afghanistan is expected to evolve from the current high-intensity fight against the Taliban to a support role with Afghans fully in the lead. The timeline fits neatly into the U.S. political calendar, enabling President Barack Obama to declare on the campaign trail this year that in addition to bringing all U.S. troops home from Iraq and beginning a troop drawdown in Afghanistan, he also has a target period for ending the U.S. combat role there. …

Although Panetta made no mention of it, U.S. Marines in Afghanistan already are making that transition out of a combat role. They are operating in Helmand province in southwestern Afghanistan, where the Taliban have been greatly weakened, and are on track to reduce their numbers significantly this year. Panetta’s remarks indicated that this switch into a support role will be applied across Afghanistan, assuming no major setbacks against the Taliban and continued progress in training Afghan forces.

Many U.S. forces already are training and advising Afghan forces.

Marine Gen. John Allen, the overall commander of international forces in Afghanistan, has been talking publicly since last fall about converting the military role from combat to what he has called “security assistance.” But Panetta went further in identifying mid- to late-2013 as the target for completing this conversion countrywide.

Panetta was in Brussels to attend a NATO meeting at which this and other issues related to the war in Afghanistan are expected to top the agenda. The session is intended to help pave the way for key decisions to be announced at a summit meeting of NATO heads of government in Chicago in May.

** NEW POLL: DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS AGREE ON TAX BREAKS TO BRING JOBS HOME AND GETTING TOUGH WITH CHINA ON TRADE, BUT LITTLE ELSE. A new Gallup Poll reveals some agreement between Democrats, Republicans, and independents on economic policy.

But it’s on only two of five major issue areas.

On the other three, Republicans are far out of step with not only Democrats but, much more crucially, independents.

And many party financial elites are opposed in the two areas in which rank-and-file Republicans agree with independents and Democrats.

Incidentally, I wrote this item up earlier, at greater length, only to find it missing.

Among five specific economic proposals, both Republicans and Democrats are in favor of giving tax breaks to corporations that bring manufacturing jobs back from overseas and pressuring China for fairer trade. They are sharply divided about increasing federal income taxes on upper-income Americans, increasing federal spending to help the long-term unemployed find jobs, and increasing federal spending on the development of alternative energy sources. The majority of independents favor all five proposals. …

In this case, large majorities of Democrats and independents — and at least 4 in 10 Republicans — favor each of the proposals Gallup asked about, pushing national support for each of the five well above the majority level. Overall support is highest for tax incentives to encourage corporations to bring back manufacturing jobs and for increasing federal spending to help the unemployed find jobs.

After losing to Newt Gingrich by 13 points in South Carolina, Mitt Romney beat him by 14 points in Florida.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then delivered remarks on the economy at the James Lee Community Center in Falls Church, Virginia.

Obama outlined a plan to provide some relief to homeowners struggling in the ongoing mortgage crisis.

At 10 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

After his forces spent more on advertising in the Florida primary than John McCain spent in the entire 2008 Republican nomination race, Mitt Romney won a blowout victory over Newt Gingrich, with Rick Santorum a distant third and Ron Paul an after-thought fourth.

It’s Romney 46%, Gingrich 32%, Rick Santorum 13%, and Ron Paul 7%.

Gingrich’s 13-point landslide win in South Carolina was answered by Romney’s 14-point landslide win in Florida.

In many respects, Romney simply bought a victory in Florida, and did so in strikingly negative fashion. I’m told upwards of 90% of his ads were negative attacks on Gingrich, who also ran a largely negative campaign, repeatedly getting off his meandering positive message with complaints about Romney’s tactics and attacks of his own.

With the chips are down, Romney antes up. That is fitting for someone whose entire career is, literally, about money.

It’s a profound weakness of his candidacy, especially considering the obvious problems with his public attitudes about finance and the realities of how he became so phenomenally wealth.

But it would be an even bigger problem if Gingrich didn’t have financial woes in his own campaign, which is getting close to running on empty again after raising more than $5 million last month.

Fortunately for him, he’s heading into a rather sparse stretch of lower cost/lower key contests in February. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have much momentum as he does so.

But again fortunately for him, these are all proportional representation contests, allowing him to easily hold on in striking distance in the delegate race until things head south early next month on Super Tuesday. Unlike Florida, which is winner-take-all.

Or is it?

It was supposed to be proportional. It was also supposed to be in February. But Florida broke party rules, jumping ahead of Nevada and declaring itself a winner-take-all state. This could easily be the subject of a legal challenge down the line.

President Barack Obama, outlining a new housing plan, said this morning that the nation’s housing crisis is damaging not only the US economy, but also what it means to be middle class in America.

While negotiations continue, Russia yesterday eschewed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s personal plea today for the UN Security Council to urge the replacement of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

We’ll see if a compromise is available as the week goes on.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

At 6:05 PM, Brown will appear on Current TV’s The War Room with Jennifer Granholm.

The host is the former governor of Michigan.

New voter registration numbers in California show another advance for independents, who now number 21%, with Democrats at 44% and Republicans down to 30%.

More good news for Democrats?

With millions wasted by Republicans on the desperate bid to derail the state’s redistricting reform, the California Republican Party has only about $400,000 in the bank heading into this critical election year.

The California Democratic Party, in contrast, has approximately $9 million.

As last night’s legislative deadline arrived, the California Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan CEQA (California Environmental Quality Act) streamlining bill yesterday, but the state Assembly with one vote to spare reversed field from Monday and passed a bill to modify the 3-strikes sentencing law.

The state’s local redevelopment agencies, targeted by Brown early last year for a redirection of tax revenues, died last night at last when the deadline for any legislation leading to their revival to move from a house of origin came and went.

Facebook is set to file its IPO, largest ever for an Internet company, on Wednesday.

That should result in a revenue bonanza for the state. The question is how big, and when?

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall, and on other major fronts. … From my January 30th essay.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 17:26:32 +0000

Game Change, based on a best-selling gossipy book (which I largely panned) on the 2008 presidential race, has been adapted for an HBO movie coming in March, focusing largely on the John McCain campaign.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?

** NEW POLL: DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS AGREE ON TAX BREAKS FOR BRINGING JOBS BACK AND GETTING TOUGHER WITH CHINA, BUT LITTLE ELSE. A new Gallup Poll reveals some rare consensus between Democrats, independents, and Republicans around two general economic policy proposals.

But on three other issues, Republicans very sharply from Democrats and, notably, independents.

Republicans are thus on the distinctly unpopular end of three big policy proposals: Raising taxes on the rich, developing renewable energy, and helping the unemployed.

But they are in tune with changing the tax code to provide incentives for corporations to create jobs at home, rather than abroad, and in pushing China for fairer trade practices. Which run counter to the dominant radical capitalist ideology of many Republican elites.

Large majorities of Democrats and independents — and at least 4 in 10 Republicans — favor each of the proposals Gallup asked about, pushing national support for each of the five well above the majority level. Overall support is highest for tax incentives to encourage corporations to bring back manufacturing jobs and for increasing federal spending to help the unemployed find jobs. …

Americans’ views of these economic proposals can be partially explained by their specific economic concerns. The two most popular proposals — giving tax breaks to companies that bring manufacturing jobs back from overseas, and increasing government spending for education and job training for the long-term unemployed — directly address what Americans clearly perceive as one of the most important problems facing the country — jobs and unemployment. …

It is also worth noting that despite the large Democratic-Republican divide on increasing taxes on upper-income Americans, federal funding for the development of alternative sources of energy, and education and job training for the long-term unemployed, a majority of independents favor each of these proposals. Further, lawmakers should expect widespread support for legislation that gives tax breaks to corporations that bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas and efforts to pressure China for fairer trade.

** QUICK HITS. With his forces spending more on advertising in the Florida primary than John McCain spent in the entire 2008 Republican nomination race, Mitt Romney is heading toward a blowout win over Newt Gingrich, with Rick Santorum a distant third and Ron Paul an after-thought fourth. … While negotiations continue, Russia today eschewed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s personal plea today for the UN Security Council to urge the replacement of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. … New voter registration numbers in California show another advance for independents, who now number 21%, with Democrats at 44% and Republicans down to 30%. … With tonight’s deadline looming, the California Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan CEQA (environmental) streamlining bill today, but the state Assembly with one vote to spare reversed field from yesterday and passed a bill to modify the 3-strikes sentencing law. … Facebook is set to file its IPO, largest ever for an Internet company, on Wednesday.

** AND THE STAR OF GAME CHANGE IS … STEVE SCHMIDT! Game Change, a gossipy book on the 2008 presidential race which I reviewed and largely panned in January 2010 has been adapted into an HBO movie focusing on John McCain’s presidential campaign and the melodrama around vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

The trailer for the film, which debuts on HBO on March 10th, is just out today and as you can see, it appears that the star of the show is Woody Harrelson as McCain campaign director (and former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager) Steve Schmidt, now a vice chairman of Edelman, the global PR firm, and an MSNBC analyst.

Ed Harris, memorable for his military officer figures in The Right Stuff and The Rock, plays McCain and multiple Academy Award nominee Julianne Moore plays Sarah Palin.

I’ll have a lot more on this as we go, of course. But the trailer is quite striking for zeroing in on Schmidt telling McCain that we live in a rather bizarre media culture (I’m paraphrasing here) and that he, a genuine American hero trailing a man of seemingly little accomplishment, has to do something drastic and dramatic in order to win.

Enter the dramatic stroke: Sarah Palin.

But all does not go well.

I don’t think that’s a spoiler.

The film is directed by Jay Roach, best known for the Austin Powers pictures.

** NEW SURVEY: SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE PERSISTS. According to a new Gallup Poll survey, the recent spate of somewhat improved tracking on economic confidence is holding up since the beginning of the new year.

According to a new Gallup Poll survey, confidence in the US economy is holding steady over the past three weeks, and up substantially still from where it was over the summer.

But it’s still only at the same level it was in May 2011.

And it is still lower than it was a year ago.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was -27 for the week ending Jan. 29, similar to the average rating in each of the prior three weeks. Confidence is up compared with December, and much improved over the highly negative readings of last fall and late summer. …

Longer term, Americans’ economic confidence at the start of 2012 is not quite as upbeat as it was a year ago, but is comparable to confidence in January 2010 — at the start of President Obama’s second year in office — and in January 2008, prior to the global financial collapse. Confidence today is far better than in January 2009, when the country was still reeling from the Wall Street crisis and the government’s response to it. …

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall, and on other major fronts. …

From my January 30th essay.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 10 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD.

With Russia saying it will veto a UN Security Council resolution calling for regime change in tumultuous Syria, President Barack Obama pointedly met yesterday with President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia. Saakashvili foolishly goaded Russia into a 2008 war disastrous for his country, now seeking ongoing security assurances from the US which he may be getting.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

He then held a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room.

At 10 AM Pacific, press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.

At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the St. Regis Hotel.

At 6:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser in a private residence.

Late polling still shows Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich in today’s Florida Republican presidential primary, though perhaps not by the blowout margin Romney backers are anticipating.

Romney forces have spent more money on ads in Florida alone than John McCain spent in his entire 2008 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. And they are virtually negative attacks on Gingrich.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul trail far behind the two leading candidates.

Iowa Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn, who consistently spun a credulous press corps into believing that Romney won the Iowa caucuses when in fact he did not, deliberately blocking and then dragging his heels on any recount, then refusing at first to acknowledge that Santorum actually finished first will resign next week.

Strawn’s performance was simply disgraceful, and shows the danger in relying on party establishment figures to act as honest brokers in an election process.

Had the Iowa process been honest, the false narrative of an historic Iowa/New Hampshire sweep by Romney would not have been established for two weeks in the news media and Santorum would have had a fairer chance to compete after his first place showing in Iowa.

While campaign shenanigans, and their aftermaths, play out, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in New York City, pushing for the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution developed by the Arab League and backed by Britain, France, and the US demanding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down.

Russia is threatening to use its veto power to block the move, which will play out over the next few days during ongoing negotiations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been ducking phone calls from Clinton for more than a day now.

The Kremlin, backing its longtime Syrian ally, is undoubtedly not very happy about Obama taking the disagreement to another level on Monday by holding high-profile talks with the president of Georgia, which Russia views as its “near abroad.”

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

Oakland’s historic City Hall reopened Monday after protestors stormed inside the building and caused extensive damage during violent weekend Occupy Oakland protests that resulted in more than 400 arrests.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

California’s redevelopment agencies, who fought hard against reform efforts last year and in the past, are on track for the dust bin of history, come midnight tonight.

There is no sign of legislation to revive them, and of course Brown, who fought successfully to redirect revenues from the agencies’ often gold-plated development projects to basic services, would not sign the bill in any event.

Legislation to amend California’s three-strikes law was defeated today in the California Assembly. For those following along at home, with the defeat of single-payer health care legislation last week in the state Senate, California Democrats are reducing their target profile in a critical election year.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

What’s actually amazing is that Gingrich was “dead” in the first place.

The fact is that the ex-House speaker had the Republican race in his hands last month and then proceeded to blow it.

And Mitt Romney is one of the most hollow, and hyped, political figures to come down the track in some time. He’s a consultant culture dream candidate: Big money and heavily into “messaging.” However, messaging, i.e., constantly repeating crafted talking points, is often not the same as having a message, which is why what he says is so malleable and chameleon-like. It’s obvious that there is very little that interests Romney besides success.

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

This is up about $67 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $13 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Monday Morning Quarterback, and More

Bill Bradley — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 17:55:49 +0000

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend a United Nations Security Council meeting Tuesday in New York to lend her support to the Syrian opposition and a resolution calling for the end of the Assad regime.

** QUICK HITS. California’s redevelopment agencies, who fought hard against reform efforts last year and in the past, are on track for the dust bin of history, come midnight on Tuesday. There is no sign of legislation to revive them, and of course Governor Jerry Brown would not sign the bill in any event. … Legislation to amend California’s three-strikes law was defeated today in the California Assembly. For those following along at home, with the defeat of single-payer health care legislation last week in the state Senate, California Democrats are reducing their target profile in a critical election year. … Oakland City Hall re-opened today after city workers cleaned up extensive damage caused by Occupy demonstrators over the weekend.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD.

** U.S. TO PUSH FOR END OF ASSAD REGIME IN SYRIA. After days of behind the scenes maneuvering, and in the midst of widespread fighting in Syria following months of bloody crackdown against pro-democracy protesters, the Obama Administration will join forces with Britain and France to push a UN Security Council resolution on Tuesday in New York which will promote the ouster of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

These three permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China being the rest of the Perm 5, are uniting behind language emanating from the Arab League urging that Assad leave office and turn over power to a deputy in a transitional governance arrangement for Syria, long one of the lynchpins of the Arab world and presently a key ally of Iran.

Russia, Syria’s longtime ally, calls this the beginning of a regime change move by Western powers allied with various Arab states and vows to veto the measure.

But the BBC reports that the resolution has the support of at least 10 of the 15 members of the UN Security Council. With that much support, only a veto by a permanent Security Council member state can block a resolution.

The Arab League finally pulled its monitors out of Syria two days ago after the Assad regime repeatedly violated its pledge to stop visiting violence upon its opponents.

The Assadists say they have no choice, that the suddenly blossoming Free Syrian Army — which is based in part in Turkey — is too strong to ignore. Indeed, the regime has struggled to disperse these organized armed forces from several places they’ve seized, including suburbs of storied Damascus itself.

The head of the Arab League and the prime minister of Qatar, which has called for Arab countries to send troops into Syria, will be in New York to lobby for the resolution.

Could we be headed for another Libyan scenario, this time involving a key ally of Iran, thus linking the scenario to a much more complex and potentially deadly situation?

A resurgent Mitt Romney and mistake-plagued Newt Gingrich battle in the Florida Republican presidential primary.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

A big week on tap in presidential politics, and a quieter one in California politics.

The Republicans fight on in their race for the presidential nomination — with the Florida primary on Tuesday and the Nevada caucuses on Saturday — while President Barack Obama positions himself against their increasingly conservative positions and deals with geopolitical crises. For his part, Governor Jerry Brown, with added support over the past few days for his big revenue initiative and Republicans scrambling to regroup after a huge defeat on redistricting, moves forward with his agenda but has a renewed problem to deal with in his adopted home town of Oakland.

Mitt Romney continues to lead Newt Gingrich in all polls, by varying margins, heading into Tuesday’s Florida Republican presidential primary. Rick Santorum, who actually narrowly won the Iowa caucuses, a victory of which he was robbed by bad reporting of a Romney win there, is fading out of the picture. And Ron Paul, whose main effect thus far in the race has been to help Romney tear down Gingrich, has done little of late.

Gingrich has made quite a few mistakes, and Romney has benefited from a coordinated counter-attack on the former House speaker from many elements of the political and media establishments, conservative and otherwise.

Gingrich has also been blitzed on the airwaves in the Sunshine State, with the Romney super PAC (which still has not divulged its funders) driving a negative campaign against the ex-House speaker which has seen him outspent by 4-to-1, with an stunning $16 million spent for Romney. The pro-Gingrich Winning Our Future super PAC, having spent about $3 million, does not appear to have committed over $3 million it had been expected to spend in Florida.

As was the case with Romney’s first TV ad of the campaign, built around a false attack on Obama, much of what Romney and company are doing is distorted.

Romney and Gingrich’s negatives with independents have skyrocketed in the course of the campaign, as each has struggled to define himself as a true conservative.

Whatever the outcome in Florida, Gingrich, who crushed Romney in South Carolina little more than a week ago, vows to continue for the long term. The vehemence and, in his view, unfairness, of the attacks against him by Romney and by various establishment elements may guarantee a result that the pro-Romney crew fears nearly as much as losing to Gingrich.

Meanwhile, there has been heavy fighting in the suburbs of Damascus and other parts of the country as Syrian regime forces battle insurgent Free Syrian Army forces. Indications are that the Assad regime, with its superior firepower, has gained the upper hand and has quelled the uprising just outside the capital.

Russia says it will not support a UN Security Council move to impose further sanctions on the Assad regime as the Arab League, having withdrawn its monitors following ongoing regime crackdowns on protesters, again denounced the regime’s behavior.

Iran, the Assad regime’s last ally in the Middle East, is focusing, at least in public, not so much on the woes of its friend but on the ongoing stand-off with the US over its nuclear weapons program, demanding that the US release an Iranian semiconductor scientist apparently being held in a federal facility in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Dublin for violating US export laws.

It continued for a second day to send mixed signals over an earlier threat to swiftly stop oil sales to European nations in advance of the European Union embargo going into effect.

Meanwhile, France, in the wake of an incident in which four of its troops were killed by an Afghan solider under their training, has ended all front-line military activities in Afghanistan and will pull out a year earlier than previously scheduled, at the end of 2013.

And outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, one of the principal targets of Arab Spring protests, arrived in New York on Saturday, ostensibly for medical treatment, the transition to a new government underway.

How long will he be in the US? Who knows?

Syria’s military has launched its toughest offensive yet to keep rebel forces out of the capital, activists say.

The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to flail in counter-productive ways, the latest evidence coming Saturday in Oakland.

Nearly 400 protesters were arrested during a wild sequence of events that began with a march outside Oakland City Hall to the closed Henry Kaiser Convention Center, where protest leaders directed that fences be torn down and the now vacant facility, established in 1914, be occupied as a new headquarters for Occupy Oakland.

Police blocked the move to take over the old convention center, prompting a fallback to Plan B of a building takeover, a march to the YMCA, where hundreds of protesters burst in on exercising members before being forced out of the building.

Later, Occupy Oakland protesters broke in to Oakland City Hall. While there, they vandalized the lobby and burned an American flag.

Protesters are threatening to shut down the Port of Oakland (which they have done very briefly on occasion) and Oakland International Airport. Which seems a brilliant way to alienate much of the 99% while doing very little to harm the 1%.

This is all quite stupid, reflective of a mindset that thought it clever to try to disrupt the annual Christmas Tree lighting in San Francisco’s Union Square.

As I mentioned in my “Ocupado” essay at the beginning of November, there is a large reserve force of fringe lefties in the Bay Area. Put that together with a major anarchist presence and a movement that essentially excuses such tactics on the cop-out rationale of “diversity of tactics” and you get dunderheaded thinking and bad results.

Brown and Democrats won a big victory late last week when the California Supreme Court ruled unanimously in favor of using the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps for the 2012 elections, despite a referendum against the plan that may yet qualify for the November ballot.

The Republican Party and its right-wing allies have spent millions to try to block the redistricting reform, which is eliminating the effects of the incumbent protection act of a decade ago.

Their strategy, one of the few keys left to them, has failed.

On Friday morning, Brown appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans. In the course of that, he strongly defended the state’s high-speed rail program, which his administration is revamping in the wake of various managerial issues and controversies, saying that he will not allow California to slip into “third world” status and that it must continue to be a leader inside the US, despite the budget problems he is working on.

Brown noted that 14 other advanced industrial nations have high-speed rail, but it has been consistently blocked in the US in favor of old energy economy approaches.

He also said that the program won’t cost as much as current estimates have it and that revenue from the state’s greenhouse gas cap and trade program can be used to help fund future segments of it.

Also on Friday, the California Air Resources Board unanimously approved new rules requiring that 15% of new cars sold in California by 2025 run on electricity, hydrogen or zero or ultr-low emissions systems. Given California’s role as a very large strategic market in the US, this could help transform the auto industry.

Meanwhile, Brown, who is working to gain business support for his initiative and neutralize business opposition, picked up big backing in the past few days from the California Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union. While I’ve expected this all along, it should help dissuade backers of two remaining competing tax hike measures.

With the Think Long group of billionaires and former officeholders already, as predicted, dissuaded from their own tax initiative, two measures competitive with Brown’s are still out there. One by heiress Molly Munger would raise the income tax for most everyone in the state and, needless to say, does not poll well. Another by a coalition of left-liberal groups would establish a big tax hike on millionaires, which does poll well but lacks resources. Both tout benefits for education. But with CTA backing the Brown plan, they will find the going even tougher.

Legislators have till the end of Tuesday to move bills along from their houses of origin. One much hyped bill that is not moving along, the latest bid to establish a single-payer health care system in California, was defeated last week in the state Senate. It had previously passed, sans any funding mechanism, that is, only to be vetoed by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Brown, who backed single-payer in his 1992 presidential campaign, is neutral this time on the issue.

This week may also see Facebook’s initial public offering of stock, likely the largest Internet IPO ever and potentially a large revenue boon for the state.

Here’s what Obama’s week looks like, in public, that is.

On Monday, Obama will welcome President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia to the White House. As the White House pointedly notes with regard to this country which fought a notably unsuccessful war with Russia in 2008: “This year marks the 20th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of Georgia and the two Presidents will discuss further strengthening the U.S. – Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership by enhancing cooperation in the fields of trade, tourism, energy, science, education, culture, and security. President Obama will underscore the importance of our defense cooperation with Georgia, including Georgia’s substantial contributions to international security operations in Afghanistan. The President will reconfirm U.S. support for the integrity of Georgia’s territory within its internationally recognized borders.”

Attention, Vladimir Putin.

On Tuesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House. On Wednesday, he will deliver remarks on the economy in Northern Virginia. On Thursday, Obama will deliver remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast. And on Friday, he will attend meetings in, yes, the White House.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 11:15 AM Pacific, Obama welcomes President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia to the White House.
The two will meet in the Oval Office.

At 12:15 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host the Diplomatic Corps Reception in the East Room.

At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama participates in an interview with YouTube and Google+ to discuss his State of the Union Address from the Roosevelt Room.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

Occupy Oakland’s disruptive moves may complicate life for Governor Jerry Brown.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Weekend Edition

Bill Bradley — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 21:14:31 +0000

Hundreds of Occupy movement protesters were arrested late Saturday and early Sunday morning in Oakland, after attempting to take over the city’s vacant convention center and breaking into the YMCA and Oakland City Hall.

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

Obama delivered remarks last night at the 99th Annual Alfalfa Club Dinner at the Capitol Hilton. As legend has it, the club is so named because the alfalfa plant spreads its roots wide in order to get a drink.

The event, a gathering of various Beltway political and media insiders, was off the record but Obama was reportedly humorous, as is the custom at these affairs. I think Obama skipped the first one of his presidency, which was not appreciated by the denizens of the capital.

Mitt Romney continues to lead Newt Gingrich heading into Tuesday’s Florida primary.

As was the case with Romney’s first TV ad of the campaign, built around a false attack on Obama, much of what Romney and company are doing is distorted.

Romney and Gingrich’s negatives with independents have skyrocketed in the course of the campaign, as each has struggled to define himself as a true conservative.

Meanwhile, there is heavy fighting in the suburbs of Damascus as Syrian regime forces battle insurgent Free Syrian Army forces.

Russia says it will not support a UN Security Council move on Monday to impose further sanctions on the Assad regime as the Arab League, having withdrawn its monitors following ongoing regime crackdowns on protesters, again denounced the regime’s behavior.

Iran, the Assad regime’s last ally in the Middle East, focused today not so much on the woes of its friend but on the ongoing stand-off with the US over its nuclear weapons program, demanding that the US release an Iranian semiconductor scientist apparently being held in a federal facility in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Dublin for violating US export laws.

It also sent mixed signals today over an earlier threat to swiftly stop oil sales to European nations in advance of the European Union embargo going into effect.

How long will he be in the US? Who knows?

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to flail in counter-productive ways, the latest evidence coming yesterday afternoon and late Saturday in Oakland.

Later, Occupy Oakland protesters broke in to Oakland City Hall. While there, they vandalized the lobby and burned an American flag.

This is all quite stupid, reflective of a mindset that thought it clever to try to disrupt the annual Christmas Tree lighting in San Francisco’s Union Square.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discusses the blueprint he put forward this week in the State of the Union Address, decries a Republican senator who vows to slow and delay all appointments unless Obama fires the new consumer finance protection chief, and calls for campaign finance and lobbying reforms.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at the 99th Annual Alfalfa Club Dinner at the Capitol Hilton.

This is a gathering of various Beltway insiders and elites. The speeches are supposed to be humorous.

Obama has no scheduled public events on Sunday at this point.

And his public schedule for the week ahead looks pretty light at this point. Though he will spend much of Monday with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Which will not please Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who prosecuted a successful war against Georgia in 2008.

The battle to see which Republican will face Obama rages on in Florida, where a combination of Newt Gingrich mistakes and an all-out assault by Mitt Romney and a procession of political and media allies has given Romney an edge in the weekend before the Tuesday primary.

Both Romney and Gingrich have seen their negatives skyrocket in recent weeks, as each has taken ever more extreme positions to bolster their standing with the Republicans’ conservative primary voting base.

While US politics play out, the situation in Syria is rapidly deteriorating.

The UN Security Council is discussing moves now in New York, with Russia still standing by its longtime ally in the Assad regime.

But it’s not clear how much control Assad has left. After repeatedly dunking agreements with the Arab League, and then railing against increased sanctions, Assad is faced with a country that is near civil war.

The Arab League said today that it is suspending its monitoring mission in Syria because of “the critical deterioration of the situation”. The pan-Arab bloc also says it is holding talks with Russia – one of the main opponents of the Arab League peace plan – ahead of a United Nations meeting in New York on Monday. The main Syrian opposition group says it will go to the UN to appeal for protection from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

More pockets of the country have fallen to the so-called Free Syrian Army, and some full-scale fighting is underway in a variety of places, though it is hard to be sure precisely what is happening since the Assad regime banned international news media nearly a year ago.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events.

Brown and Democrats won a big victory yesterday when the California Supreme Court ruled unanimously in favor of using the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps for the 2012 elections, despite a referendum against the plan that may yet qualify for the November ballot.

The Republican Party and its right-wing allies have spent millions to try to block the redistricting reform, which is eliminating the effects of the incumbent protection act of a decade ago.

Their strategy, one of the few keys left to them, has failed.

Yesterday morning, Brown appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans.

In the course of that, he strongly defended the state’s high-speed rail program, which his administration is revamping in the wake of various managerial issues and controversies, saying that he will not allow California to slip into “third world” status and that it must continue to be a leader inside the US, despite the budget problems he is working on.

Brown noted that 14 other advanced industrial nations have high-speed rail, but it has been consistently blocked in the US in favor of old energy economy approaches.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

After all, as I pointed out last week here on the Huffington Post, before Gingrich’s landslide win in South Carolina, the supposedly politically dead ex-House speaker has blown golden opportunities to put Romney away before.

Romney is a hollow man, whose only consistent ideology is radical capitalism, as he showed when he denounced any criticism of his financialized capitalism as tantamount to socialism, and notions of his own success. He’s been an accident waiting to happen for a long time, notwithstanding endless hype to the contrary.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds.

Now he’s racing with Romney in Florida, having suddenly overcome the ex-leveraged buyout artist’s huge lead there despite weeks of massive advertising on Romney’s behalf.

Gingrich doesn’t have to win Florida, since this contest comes with an asterisk. There’s been a lot of early voting there by people who were hearing only the Romney message. And there is the massive spending for Romney, some $15.4 million, to $6 million or so on Gingrich’s behalf. …

What should he do? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $99.56 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $14 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 17:55:05 +0000

Finance chiefs at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland have been pushing on the Eurozone crisis. There are signs of a breakthrough on Greece. Supported by the US, the IMF is putting more pressure on Europe to add to its rescue fund. The US will not put more money into the IMF until EU leaders ante up some more.

** JERRY-RIGGING: HUGE LOSS FOR CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS AS BROWN MOVES FORWARD ON HIS PLANS. the California Republican Party put most of its remaining marbles on a long-shot bid to derail the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The effort went on for more than a year, first to undermine and try to delegitimize the work of the commission set up by an Arnold Schwarzenegger-backed initiative to take legislative and congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislators — a commission which, mind you, had an over-representation of Republicans on it — and then to block the state Senate districts by a referendum.

That effort ended in abject failure today, with a 7-0 vote of the Republican majority California Supreme Court upholding the commission’s lines even if a referendum to overturn them does qualify for the November ballot. Here’s the ruling.

It was not much of a surprise, in that the Court had previously turned down the Republican Party’s call to have it appoint “special masters” to draw new district lines and had affirmed that the commission’s lines meet constitutional requirements.

So now the elections move forward in districts which top Republicans fear will yield a two-thirds Democratic majority.

The only reason this is even an issue is that the last redistricting a decade ago was essentially an incumbent protection act, which locked in greater Republican representation than was warranted eve as the state was turning away from the increasingly right-wing party.

Republicans spent millions they don’t really have on various court challenges of the commission’s work, not just on the state Senate lines but on congressional lines as well, and on efforts for qualifying a referendum.

If it does qualify, then they have to spend millions more to try to win it, in the face of widespread condemnation of their sour grapes politics. Or they can let the referendum die an ignominious death on the ballot.

Why are the Republicans acting this way? Because anti-tax/anti-government Talibanism is the ultimate dogma of the party. It’s evidently their true bottom line issue. Which is a bit odd. As we saw with Schwarzenegger’s own experiences getting temporary tax hikes adopted in 2009, and Brown’s painstaking and unsuccessful effort to gain a few legislative votes to merely place a tax extensions on the ballot last year.

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall. With the Think Long Committee having given up on its clearly foolhardy plan to cut taxes for the rich and corporations while extending the sales tax to all manner of services, I’m hearing that proponents of at least one of two other competing initiatives are beginning to grasp the futility of their efforts. But we shall see.

Brown has been meeting with business executives, publicly and privately, this week as he’s again traveled up and down the state. And he’s raising money for his initiative, with over $2 million taken in.

The latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll this week is promising, showing what the PPIC calls “a strong majority” in favor of the initiative. If Brown can win over additional business support, while neutralizing major business opposition, he should be in good position for the fall.

But more needs to be done to demonstrate improved governmental efficiency. No one likes to think money is wasted.

** NEW POLL: MOST WANT GOVERNMENT TO AID CONSUMERS ON FORECLOSURES. In direct contradiction of putative on-and-off Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney’s views, most voters want the government to try to help homeowners caught in the foreclosure crisis.

Late last year in Las Vegas, a key epicenter of the housing crisis, Romney said that underwater homeowners should be left to drown.

This attitude doesn’t fly with the public.

According to a new Gallup Poll, 58% want to the federal government to help stop the wave of foreclosures. Only 34% agree with Romney’s position.

But most Republicans agree with Romney. (Most independents do not, by a wide margin.)

I’d like to see those numbers in Nevada and other states hit hard by the crisis.

In any event, if Romney does go on to win the Republican nomination, he is badly positioned on this key issue for the general election.

The majority of Americans, 58%, prefer that the government act to prevent foreclosures, whereas 34% prefer the housing market resolve its problems on its own. A sharp partisan divide exists, with 76% of Democrats and 61% of independents favoring government action and 64% of Republicans opposing it. …

Americans who make $90,000 or more per year and those who have graduated from college are less likely to want the government to take steps to prevent foreclosures. Still, half or more of both groups are in favor of government intervention. …

One reason so many Americans may favor the government’s taking further steps to moderate the foreclosure situation may have to do with their concerns about declining home values. The presence of a large number of foreclosed properties in the market tends to drive down prices and home values. One in five homes purchased during the third quarter of 2011 was a foreclosure. It is no wonder that half of all Americans and 57% of homeowners say they are worried their home values will not increase this year.

Speaking early this morning at the University of Michigan, President Barack Obama called for an overhaul of the higher education financial aid system, warning that colleges and universities that fail to control spiraling tuition costs could lose federal funds.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Michigan, Maryland, and Washington.

Obama delivered remarks early this morning at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor expanding on his State of the Union proposals to keep college affordable.

He then flew out of Detroit on Air Force One to Joint Base Andrews.

At 9:25 AM Pacific, Obama arrives Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One and flies to Cambridge, Maryland.

At 10:20 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at the Democratic Issues Conference in Cambridge, Maryland. He then flies back to the White House on Marine One.

At 12 noon Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.

At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington.

Obama is on Day 3 of his post-State of the Union “An America That’s Built To Last Tour.”

Polls show that his address was very well-received by most voters. And, as you can see in yesterday’s edition of NWN, there is a very good reason for that.

Obama’s speech and message mirror what most Americans think on most issues of concern.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are raging.

Yesterday was not a good day for Newt Gingrich, who has been on the receiving end of an organized establishment conservative political and media gang-up.

He gave a too hot speech, then followed that up with a somewhat subdued debate performance.

Mitt Romney, who has regained a lead in Florida, was very aggressive in last night’s debate, but he was caught in several lies along the way.

He claimed that he didn’t have an ad attacking Gingrich falsely claiming the ex-speaker had called Spanish a “ghetto language.” Not only does he have such an ad, he appears at the end of it saying he authorized the thing.

He claimed that his investments in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in a blind trust. Which would not be a very good excuse anyway, since his Swiss bank account, also supposedly in a blind trust, was closed at his behest. In any event, the investments are not in a blind trust.

And he attempted to blur his Democratic presidential primary vote for Paul Tsongas in 1992 by saying he’s never voted for a Democrat when a Republican was running. It was a presidential election; obviously a Republican was running.

Prior to the debate, Romney was forced to acknowledge that he has several offshore investment accounts that are not on his financial disclosure forms, including one in an outfit called “Barracuda Investments.”

But Gingrich didn’t make a lot of hay on these points. He did better than much of the media, which hates to be shown up — as it has been both in the take-down of CNN host John King last week and in the supposedly dead Gingrich’s “surprise” win in South Carolina — but had only a slight edge over Romney in my view.

Romney and his forces have accelerated their spending in Florida, with more than $15 million accounted for, just a few days after the total looked like $13 million.

Gingrich and his backers are spending far less than half that.

Unless Gingrich makes some adjustments, as I discussed in the essay linked below, he will lose Florida. Not that he has to win it, but it’s certainly advisable.

As the UN Security Council considers today what to do about the deteriorating situation in Syria, rebels have seized a suburb just outside the center of Damascus, Syria’s capital city.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta outlined a plan yesterday for absorbing $487 billion in defense cuts over the coming decade. It can be done, said the veteran California political figure, by shrinking U.S. ground forces (principally the Army and less so, the Marines), slowing the purchase of a next generation stealth fighter, and retiring older planes and ships.

While US politics play out, the situation in Syria is rapidly deteriorating.

The UN Security Council is discussing moves now in New York, with Russia still standing by its longtime ally in the Assad regime.

In fact, a key city just outside the capital has apparently fallen to the so-called Free Syrian Army, about which remarkably little is known.

Given Syria’s longstanding position at the center of gravity in the Arab world, and its alliance with Iran, this is a combustible situation.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** 10:15 AM PACIFIC UPDATE: The California Supreme Court ruled this morning that the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s districts for the state Senate will be used in the 2012 elections. This is a big and not unexpected defeat for conservative Republicans.

The vote on the Republican majority court was 7-0. Here is the ruling.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Southern California and Northern California today.

The California Supreme Court is expected to rule this morning on whether or not to deny the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps as counting of signatures for a referendum on the matter continues.

Last night at the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce dinner, Brown laid out what he’s dubbed a “Call To Action” to LA business leaders to stand with him on his public pension reform plan and his balanced budget plan, which includes his temporary tax hike initiative.

Alarmed by Brown’s work with the business community, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association joined forces with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a fixture in far right circles, to urge business leaders not to succumb to Brown’s blandishments.

Brown appeared last night on the NBC Nightly News in an exclusive interview with former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw on his new/renewed governorship and national political dynamics.

Early this morning, he appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

What should he do? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:45:43 +0000

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta outlined a plan today for absorbing $487 billion in defense cuts over the coming decade. It can be done, said the veteran California political figure, by shrinking U.S. ground forces (principally the Army and less so, the Marines), slowing the purchase of a next generation stealth fighter, and retiring older planes and ships.

** QUICK HITS. The big Republican presidential debate is at 5 PM Pacific in Jacksonville, Florida on CNN. Here is the live link. … Tonight at the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce dinner, Governor Jerry Brown lays out what he’s dubbed a “Call To Action” to LA business leaders to stand with him on his public pension reform plan and his balanced budget plan, which includes his temporary tax hike initiative. … Alarmed by Brown’s work with the business community, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association joined forces with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a fixture in far right circles, to urge business leaders not to succumb to Brown’s blandishments. … Brown also appears tonight on the NBC Nightly News in an exclusive interview with former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw on his new/renewed governorship and national political dynamics.

What should he do? …

From my new essay.

** NEW SURVEY: OBAMA’S STATE OF THE UNION ALMOST ENTIRELY IN LINE WITH VOTERS’ VIEWS. A new breakdown of polling data by the Gallup Poll reveals a very good reason why President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday night found very widespread favor with voters.

It was essentially structured along lines that they have already approved.

I wonder if they look at polls in the White House. Hmm …

Here are the issue areas in which Obama was largely or even entirely in line with popular opinion:

Getting out of Iraq. People were tired of this war, one of the biggest geopolitical mistakes in American history, a long time ago.

Killing Osama bin Laden and prosecuting the war on terrorism. This is a big winner for Obama.

Pride in the US Armed Forces. It’s the most admired institution in the US.

Changing the corporate tax code to reward job creation at home. Voters are getting hip to the off-shore/out-source issue in a big way.

Trade policy with China. More favor playing tougher with a rising China economic power.

Job training. Big majorities for increased job training programs. When is there not?

Illegal immigration. While most want stronger border security, a big majority favors steps to allow illegal immigrants already here to remain, and a smaller majority wants the children of illegals to gain legal status automatically by attending college of joining the armed forces.

Oil and gas exploration. Most want more oil and natural gas development in the US.

Alternative energy development. Big majorities favor more government intervention to help the renewable energy industry, and agree with Obama that it should be preferred over the traditional oil industry which has reaped a century of big government subsidies.

Infrastructure. Big majorities agree with Obama that more infrastructure spending is needed, and that it is a good source of good jobs in the process.

Tax fairness. Most agree with Obama that the tax system is unfair, and that the wealthy need to pay more.

Government gridlock. Most everyone agrees that Washington is dysfunctional. Trick question to see who’s napping.

Governmental efficiency. Negative views of the federal government, its size, power, and efficiency, have grown to near record levels. Most agree with Obama that it needs to become more efficient, even as many continue to fear it.

Defense. Obama is pushing a plan for an improved yet leaner military. That tracks with popular attitudes. Most are pleased with the armed forces in terms of strength and preparedness, while mindful of possible future threats such as cyberwar. But voters are torn on the question of military spending, with a 39% plurality saying we spend too much, 35% saying the right amount, and 22% too little. The latter group is the one being addressed by the Republican presidential candidates, who claim that Obama is eviscerating our military strength.

The only areas not so much?

Economic fairness. Gallup has polling indicating a split over whether or not the US economy is unfair in general, even as it has other polling showing a strong desire to tax the rich more heavily, with strong distrust of the financial sector.

The improving state of the Union. You’ve seen the numbers here on that. Widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, even as economic confidence rises.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 2:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers remarks on energy security at Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado. At 10 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the new energy economy in Las Vegas, Nevada. The events are netcast live here on New West Notes. If you want to mute the audio, click on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

President Barack Obama visited Conveyor Engineering and Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids, Iowa yesterday on his “An America That’s Built To Last” post-State of the Union tour, reminiscing some about the state that gave him his breakthrough victory in 2008.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.

At 10 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at UPS Las Vegas South about the new energy economy.

This event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 12:05 PM Pacific, Obama departs Las Vegas on Air Force en route Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado.

At 1:35 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado.

At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Buckley Air Force Base on American energy and the steps his administration is taking to promote energy security.

This event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 3:15 PM Pacific, Obama departs Aurora, Colorado on Air Force One en route Detroit, Michigan.

At 5:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Detroit.

Obama is on Day 2 of his post-State of the Union An America That’s Built To Last Tour.

Polls show that his address was very well-received by most voters.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are raging.

In Congress, they are trying to take away Obama’s power to approve the Keystone XL pipeline project, hoping instead to vest it in an industry-friendly regulatory body.

This is a desperation move, since they’ve been acknowledging Obama and the State Department’s authority all along.

And battles are raging in the Republican presidential race. The Republican presidential field debates tonight in Jacksonville on CNN.

The Drudge Report and other right-wing media fixtures are launching a coordinated assault on Newt Gingrich. Their problem, aside from the merits or demerits of their case, is that if he wins they become far less relevant as a lobbying force in the Republican Party.

Angry Congressional Republicans are trying to strip President Barack Obama of his authority over the controversial proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to Texas. The attempt is probably unconstitutional.

The race is quite volatile now, with signs that Mitt Romney has recovered some of his past position in the Florida primary.

Gingrich vowed yesterday in Florida, historic home of the manned space program, that he will establish a Moon base by 2020. The crowd was favorably disposed. Rival Mitt Romney likes to make fun of the space program.

Romney and his forces have accelerated their spending in Florida, with more than $15 million accounted for, just a few days after the total looked like $13 million.

Gingrich and his backers are spending less than half that.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Southern California.

At 12:30 PM, he celebrates the 50th anniversary of San Juan Capistrano at an event at El Adobe De Capistrano Restaurant.

At 7 PM, he attends and addresses the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce Inaugural Dinner at the JW Marriott at LA Live.

Some higher ed leaders are starting to get it in California. The California State University board of trustees voted yesterday to set some limits on new campus president salaries. Top staff pay and perks have been going up in the CSU and UC systems while big cutbacks hit elsewhere.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

He’s also making progress early on in clearing the field for his revenue initiative in November.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Non-Random Notes (Throughout the day)

Bill Bradley — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:37:09 +0000

This anti-Newt Gingrich attack ad has just started running in Nevada in advance of the February 4th Republican presidential caucuses there.

** QUICK HITS. Newt Gingrich vowed today in Florida, historic home of the manned space program, that he will establish a Moon base by 2020. The crowd was favorably disposed. Rival Mitt Romney likes to make fun of the space program. … Some higher ed leaders are starting to get it in California. The California State University board of trustees voted today to set some limits on new campus president salaries. Top staff pay and perks have been going up in the CSU and UC systems while big cutbacks hit elsewhere. … Governor Jerry Brown announced the streamlining of some environmental regulations. More to follow. …

** ROMNEY TRIES TO ARREST SILVER STATE SLIDE. There hasn’t been a public poll in Nevada, the next contest in the Republican nomination race, for over a month. But something must be telling Mitt Romney, who led then, that things are going south there in advance of the February 4th presidential caucuses, because today his campaign put this TV ad on the air in the Las Vegas and Reno media markets.

As you’ll see, I think Newt Gingrich has a real opportunity to win Nevada, which, if he wins Florida, would be another crackling blow to a reeling “inevitable” candidate. Romney took Nevada in 2008 and has long been favored there. But he’s vulnerable.

Romney’s argument, of course, is that it’s the government’s fault for the financial crisis for encouraging the expansion of home ownership, not that lenders enticed vulnerable consumers or that high finance types turned mortgages into unsustainable but highly lucrative financial products.

And he neglects to mention that he’s already been revealed as an investor in Freddie Mac, the outfit that engaged Gingrich’s consulting firm for years, or that he favors having underwater mortgage holders drown.

VOICEOVER: “While Nevada families lost everything in the housing crisis, Newt Gingrich cashed in.

Gingrich was paid over $1.6 million by the scandal-ridden agency that helped create the crisis. An historian. Really?

Sanctioned for ethics violations.

Gingrich resigned from Congress in disgrace.

And then cashed in as a DC insider.

If Newt wins, this guy would be very happy.” (over photo of Barack Obama)

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 3:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers remarks at Intel’s Ocotillo Campus outside Phoenix, Arizona. At 9:55 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids. The events are netcast live here on New West Notes. If you want to mute the audio, click on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it is unlikely to raise interest rates before late 2014, extending a period of record-low rates.

** NEW SURVEY: FINANCIAL WORRIES AS HIGH AS ANY IN PAST TWO DECADES. A new Gallup Poll survey indicates that, even though economic confidence has gone up some, financial worries continue to be widespread.

Whether it’s accurate or not, half the people in the country think they are worse off financially now than they were a year ago.

These worries are equivalent to what they were 20 years ago, when incumbent George Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton.

Of course, one big difference is that times were good when Bush took office. Whereas Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Americans’ worries about maintaining their standard of living (51%), or being able to pay medical bills (43%) or losing their job (34%) in the next 12 months are among the highest Gallup has measured in the past 20 years, on par with the levels seen in 1991 and 1992. …

Since 1991, Gallup has periodically asked Americans whether they are worried about each of these financial events happening to them. The trend includes updates in January of four presidential election years — 1992, 2004, 2008, and 2012.

Americans’ economic anxiety today is most similar to what it was in 1992, though Americans are slightly less worried about not being able to pay medical bills now (43%) than they were then (48%). The economic angst at that time helped contribute to George H.W. Bush’s re-election defeat that year. Far fewer were worried in 2004, when George W. Bush won a second term.

The late January/early February 2008 survey was conducted as the U.S. was in the beginning of an economic recession and Americans were becoming increasingly worried about the economy, but before the financial crisis unfolded later that year. Americans were less worried at that time than they are now about losing a job (23% versus 34%) and paying medical bills (33% versus 43%), but about as worried about not being able to maintain their standard of living (50% versus 51%).

Gallup did not ask this question in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, so it’s possible the levels of financial worry were higher then. However, the January 2011 update showed that economic concerns were elevated in all three areas nearly two years after the recession officially ended. Importantly, Americans’ financial concerns remain high even as economic confidence is improving. …

US Navy SEALs, parachuting into Somalia, rescued two aid workers, an American woman named Jessica Buchanan and a Danish man, being held by jihadists. The raid went down last night around the time time of the State of the Union address. The operation was carried out by SEAL Team Six, the unit which carried out the Osama bin Laden raid. There were no American casualties.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Iowa, Arizona, and Nevada.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then departed Joint Base Andrews on Air Force One route Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

At 9:20 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

At 9:40 AM Pacific, Obama tours Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids.

At 9:55 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama departs Cedar Rapids on Air Force One en route Phoenix, Arizona.

At 2:35 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Phoenix, Arizona.

At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Intel’s Ocotillo Campus.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 5:35 PM Pacific, Obama departs Phoenix on Air Force One en route Las Vegas, Nevada.

At 6:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Las Vegas.

Obama delivered a well-received State of the Union address last night, focusing on the end of the war in Iraq, the demise of Osama bin Laden and much of Al Qaeda and his themes of economic revival and modified populism.

The optics of Obama’s case were aided by having representatives of the two most popular businesspeople in the country — investor Warren Buffett and the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs — on hand in the gallery with First Lady Michelle Obama.

Laurene Powell Jobs, an icon of a famous fortune based not on financial manipulation but great products, was joined by Warren Buffett’s secretary, Debbie Bosanek, who pays a higher tax rate under the system now in place than her mega-billionaire boss does.

Now he is on a three-day/five-state tour playing up his key sub-themes of ramping up American manufacturing, the new energy economy, and technological innovation and worker skills.

These tour events have a new theme, incidentally. “An America Built To Last.”

The Obama campaign, and of course these really are re-election events, is contrasting Obama’s approach to capitalism with what they see as the clearly unsustainable model promoted by conservative Republicans.

While the State of the Union played out, US Navy SEALs executed a daring raid inside Somalia to rescue two Western aid workers, an American woman and a Danish man, who were kidnapped by jihadists seeking to block efforts to clear mine fields, which the jihadists style as Western imperialism.

The American woman, Jessica Buchanan, in captivity for three months, had a serious medical condition which prompted Obama’s decision to launch the raid.

Obama had baffled some observers just before beginning last night’s State of the Union address when he grasped Defense Secretary Leon Panetta by the hand, telling the veteran California political figure: “Good job!”

There were no Blackhawks down this time in Somalia. The SEALs parachuted in and killed the jihadist guards, most of whom were evidently sleeping off a bout with khat, a popular narcotic in that part of the world.

If it’s a fair fight, something has gone wrong.

Prior to these events, we a wild day in Republican presidential politics.

A part of that wild day in Florida with a California connection saw Palm Springs Congresswoman Mary Bono’s husband, Florida Congressman Connie Mack, crash a Newt Gingrich event trying to embarrass the ex-speaker on “unanswered questions” about his consulting work for Freddie Mac. The outfit is positioned in conservative lexicon as the cause of the financial crisis, at best a very incomplete view.

President Barack Obama delivered the State of the Union address last night at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

Of course, in the course of going through Mitt Romney’s release of tax information since 2010, it emerges that he invested in Freddie Mac. But there are bigger fish to fry in that catch, and the DNC is focusing heavily on the fact that Romney is studiously not revealing much about his finances during his leveraged buyout heyday, from which he gained the fortune which yields him more than $40 million in investment income in two years while he was running for president. (But still a Bain Capital partner.)

The big news of the day on the Republican side was the release by Romney of his 2010 tax returns and 2011 tax estimate. Of course, he is avoiding revealing his records from the time in which he acquired most of his vast wealth, revealing only his dealings while a full-time candidate for president, presumably the most sanitized time of his life financially.

There’s plenty of coverage of this, but it seems obvious to me that Romney making well over $40 million off of investments, paying at a rate of less than 14%, with evidence of large holdings in Caribbean off-shore havens, and even a Swiss bank account, played in perfectly to Obama’s themes of fairness in the SOTU.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.

At 1:30 PM, he speaks at the California District Attorneys Association Roundtable at the Sheraton Delfina in Santa Monica.

Brown has several additional events in Southern California today and tomorrow.

He got good news in the form of the latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll.

The poll showed what we’ve already discussed here quite a few times.

Brown’s numbers are still pretty good, with a job approval of 46% and disapproval down in the 30s.

Better yet, there is very strong support for his revenue initiative, with upwards of two-thirds in favor.

But the trigger cuts are unpopular.

California voters always want to cut except when it comes to realistic specifics.

All they want to cut is unspecified waste, fraud, and abuse, and corrections, a tiny sliver of the budget which is being cut heavily by Brown.

They of course have no idea where most of the money is spent, i.e., on education.

Is this because of mediocre media coverage, or a persistent ignorance?

Meanwhile, California Democratic legislators are showing their special tone deafness with a lawsuit attempting to take away the ability of state Controller John Chiang to block their paychecks until they produce a legitimate budget, as he did to great acclaim last June.

The Democratic legislators are more reality-based than their Republican counterparts, but it is, unfortunately, all relative.

The state auditor issued a report saying that the Brown Administration has not finished fixing the previous management problems at the High-Speed Rail Authority. I’ll have more on that.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

He’s also making progress early on in clearing the field for his revenue initiative in November.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.