Former South African President Nelson Mandela, the legendary icon of the anti-apartheid struggle, celebrated his 94th birthday today. Former President Bill Clinton was a surprise visitor in Mandela’s home village.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY and THE DARK KNIGHT FALTERS AGAINST A GRITTY BOND VILLAIN, HIMSELF, AND US.
** QUICK HITS. Israel today blamed Iran for a bomb blast that killed six Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu pledged “a strong response.” … Netanyahu was already shaken by the collapse late yesterday of his national unity government. The opposition centrist Kadima Party, which actually finished first in the most recent Israeli national elections, pulled out of the government it entered with fanfare a few months ago. This may lead to an election that seemed to have been postponed from this year till next. … Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hasn’t been seen or heard from since the dramatic assassinations of his defense minister, interior minister, deputy president, and brother-in-law inside a very high-security complex in Damascus.
** NEW SURVEY: SATISFACTION STILL LOW BUT UP TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2009. A new Gallup Poll survey finds that satisfaction with life is rising in the US. It’s still low, but it’s as high as it’s been since several months after President Barack Obama took office.
Satisfaction among Republicans is very low and unchanged from that low level. But satisfaction among Democrats and independents is rising.
These aren’t good numbers for Obama, but the trend line is. And the numbers are over twice as high as they were when Obama took office.
Twenty-eight percent of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 20% in June and roughly matching the highest levels recorded at various points since 2010, of either 26% or 27%. Satisfaction has dipped much lower during this time period, but the last time satisfaction was statistically higher was in mid-2009. …
Most Americans — 69% — remain dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. according to the July 9-12 Gallup poll; however, this is the first time since 2009 that the figure has registered below 70%.
Democrats’ satisfaction increased to 45% in July, up from 34% in June, but similar to the 43% seen in May. Independents’ satisfaction also increased, rising to 26%, from 17% in June and 20% in May. But, Republicans’ satisfaction was statistically unchanged at 10%. …
Americans are significantly more satisfied today than they were in January 2009, just before Barack Obama took office. At that time, 13% were satisfied. The percentage satisfied surged to 36% within the first seven months of his administration, but gradually fell to the mid-20s and has since averaged 21%, with a period of lower ratings in the second half of 2011. Today’s 28% thus marks an encouraging departure from the norm seen over the past three years. …
Following the bombing in Damascus that killed at least three top Syrian officials including the Assad regime’s defense minister, interior minister and the president’s brother-in-law, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta this morning expressed concern over the increased violence and called on the international community to pressure the Assad regime to step down.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama then met with Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack in the Oval Office to discuss the efforts to respond to the drought.
At 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 11:25 AM Pacific, Obama honors the 2012 NCAA Women’s Basketball Champion Baylor University Bears in the East Room.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
At 2:40 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel.
Obama is spending a lot of time today on managing several crises, notably the crises in the Gulf and the South China Sea, which are discussed in depth my essay excerpted and linked below, and the fighting in Damascus, capital of Syria.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Syria, Iraq, AfPak, and the South China Sea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time. The time in Manila, on the South China Sea, is fifteen hours ahead of Pacific time.
** CRISES CHAOTIC AND BUBBLING: THE GULF AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Two crises, a half a world away from each other on very strategic, very different bodies of water. One I believe, the one in the South China Sea — a major key to America’s geopolitical pivot from over-engagement with the Islamic world of the Middle East and Central Asia to heightened engagement with the rising Asia Pacific — is going to U.S. plan. Or at least it was until China upped the ante. The other, in the Persian Gulf, which most countries in the region call the Arabian Gulf, is close to spiraling out of control.
I’ve been to these places and know them, but I’m not there now so I’m sure I’m missing some of the telling detail, the enlivening color, that can make a big difference in analysis.
Yet several themes seem to be emerging: The perpetual powder keg that is the Gulf is increasingly unstable. The failure of the People’s Republic of China’s Southeast Asian neighbors to achieve consensus on China’s increasingly aggressive moves in the South China Sea primes the pump for greater U.S. involvement. But China is upping the ante there with even more aggressive moves. The “Open Door” which the U.S. has promoted in East Asia for more than 110 years swings in more than one direction. And, while the prospect of confrontation between the U.S. and China is ratcheting up, the likelihood of war, between the two at least, is not.
Taken together, these developments of just the past few days point up once again why the big geopolitical pivot is arguably the biggest (though wildly under-covered) story in the world.
Incidentally, you can check a number of my related articles here in The Pivot Archive. …
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Brown will be joined state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Assembly Speaker John Perez and other state and local officials when he signs the High-Speed Rail funding bill (SB 1029) at Union Station in Los Angeles, and later at the future Transbay Transit Center in San Francisco.
Brown’s first signing event is at 10 AM at Union Station in Los Angeles.
His second signing event is at the Transbay Transit Center construction site at 2 PM in downtown San Francisco.
** WHY THE CLINTONS NEED OBAMA TO WIN: UNCERTAINTY AS HILLARY PUSHES THE BIG GEOPOLITICAL PIVOT. … From my July 13th essay.
** A TICKET TO RIDE: HIGH-SPEED RAIL MOVES FORWARD ON A HISTORIC (AND BUMPY) TRACK IN CALIFORNIA. … From my July 11th feature.
** DARK KNIGHTS, AVENGERS, BONDING RETRO ACTION HEROES: HOW LONG WILL THE SUPERHERO PHENOMENON LAST? … From my July 7th essay.
** FOUNDED IN ENLIGHTENMENT, AMERICA FACES IGNORANCE AND CONFUSION AS THE CHALLENGES GROW EVER MORE COMPLEX. … From my July 2nd essay.
** THE “MOMENTARY MEDIA” STRIKES: EPIC FAILS BY CNN AND FOX NEWS HIGHLIGHT DYSFUNCTIONALITY. … From my June 28th column.
** THE “SLOW BORING OF HARD BOARDS” IN AN ERA OF LIMITS. … From my June 27th essay.
** A RUGGED TIME FOR OBAMA’S BIG GEOPOLITICAL PIVOT. … From my June 22nd essay.
** THE “FAIR SHOT” VS. THE “TO DO LIST” — A BIG REVEALING BLAH IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. … From my June 20th column.
** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The Dark Knight Rises, arguably the key film of the year, opens on Friday.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $90 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $56 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $24 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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| Comments (42) |
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
It looks awesome!!
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
I hope there is video this time…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Brown will be joined state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Assembly Speaker John Perez and other state and local officials when he signs the High-Speed Rail funding bill (SB 1029) at Union Station in Los Angeles, and later at the future Transbay Transit Center in San Francisco.
Brown’s first signing event is at 10 AM at Union Station in Los Angeles.
His second signing event is at the Transbay Transit Center construction site at 2 PM in downtown San Francisco.
Hahah, I love it!
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY.
More Gulf crisis video?
Truly excellent HuffPost feature on the Gulf and South China Sea crises.
Too bad most of the comments are dumb, as usual.
I wonder if this makes Assad even more hardline.
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:34 am
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
The Naval War College in its Newport Papers series deals with some of the Asian issues mentioned in the Huffington Post piece
http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/Newport-Papers.aspx
#38, which was just published, gives the history of the Taiwan Patrol Force, which is descrtibed in the foreward thusly “Between 1950 and 1979, during the Cold War, much of the U.S. Navy’s relationship with China centered around the Taiwan Patrol Force, whose duties included patrolling the international waters off mainland China’s Fujian Province, which separates the mainland from the island of Taiwan.” Author Bruce A. Elleman notes the patrol did its job so well virtually nothing (until now) has been written on it.
Yeah, that’s a good one alright, and only about 1500 words this time…
Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Truly excellent HuffPost feature on the Gulf and South China Sea crises.
Too bad most of the comments are dumb, as usual.
Capitol Boy, I did find this link to a photo of the signing ceremony at L.A. Union Station today…
http://thesource.metro.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wpid-Photo-Jul-18-2012-928-AM.jpg
That’s my kind of movie…
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:39 am
It looks awesome!!
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
He has no choice.
Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm
I wonder if this makes Assad even more hardline.
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:34 am
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
Say, that looks pretty good. I see Vigorosa got in there next to jerry Brown, who’s the blonde next to him?
Dana says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Capitol Boy, I did find this link to a photo of the signing ceremony at L.A. Union Station today…
http://thesource.metro.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wpid-Photo-Jul-18-2012-928-AM.jpg
Cool you know what happens in Dark Knight.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY and THE DARK KNIGHT FALTERS AGAINST A GRITTY BOND VILLAIN, HIMSELF, AND US.
Good news video of Nelson Mandela’s birthday.
That is nice, good for Clinton!
I can see it…
Jack Aubrey says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:32 pm
That’s my kind of movie…
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:39 am
It looks awesome!!
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
Thanks! It looks pretty great.
Dana says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Capitol Boy, I did find this link to a photo of the signing ceremony at L.A. Union Station today…
http://thesource.metro.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wpid-Photo-Jul-18-2012-928-AM.jpg
What does that mean??
** QUICK HITS. Israel today blamed Iran for a bomb blast that killed six Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu pledged “a strong response.” …
If the Israelis have to have an election does that make attacking Iran more likely or less likely?
… Netanyahu was already shaken by the collapse late yesterday of his national unity government. The opposition centrist Kadima Party, which actually finished first in the most recent Israeli national elections, pulled out of the government it entered with fanfare a few months ago. This may lead to an election that seemed to have been postponed from this year till next. …
Syria crisis video today?
Yes.
CW would be less likely.
> Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 5:23 pm (Edit)
If the Israelis have to have an election does that make attacking Iran more likely or less likely?
… Netanyahu was already shaken by the collapse late yesterday of his national unity government. The opposition centrist Kadima Party, which actually finished first in the most recent Israeli national elections, pulled out of the government it entered with fanfare a few months ago. This may lead to an election that seemed to have been postponed from this year till next. …
Commando raid, or assassination.
>
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 5:22 pm (Edit)
What does that mean??
** QUICK HITS. Israel today blamed Iran for a bomb blast that killed six Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu pledged “a strong response.” …
He was our “first black president” …
>
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 4:53 pm (Edit)
Good news video of Nelson Mandela’s birthday.
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 5:19 pm (Edit)
That is nice, good for Clinton!
If in fact I do.
> Cooper Hawks says:
July 18, 2012 at 4:42 pm (Edit)
Cool you know what happens in Dark Knight.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY and THE DARK KNIGHT FALTERS AGAINST A GRITTY BOND VILLAIN, HIMSELF, AND US.
I don’t know. Dana, anyone?
> Jack Aubrey says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:37 pm (Edit)
Say, that looks pretty good. I see Vigorosa got in there next to jerry Brown, who’s the blonde next to him?
Dana says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Capitol Boy, I did find this link to a photo of the signing ceremony at L.A. Union Station today…
http://thesource.metro.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wpid-Photo-Jul-18-2012-928-AM.jpg
He and his European wife can always find somewhere else to live.
> Jack Aubrey says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:36 pm (Edit)
He has no choice.
Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm
I wonder if this makes Assad even more hardline.
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:34 am
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
Heh.
> Jack Aubrey says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:32 pm (Edit)
That’s my kind of movie…
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:39 am
It looks awesome!!
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
Nice catch.
> Dana says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm (Edit)
Capitol Boy, I did find this link to a photo of the signing ceremony at L.A. Union Station today…
http://thesource.metro.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/wpid-Photo-Jul-18-2012-928-AM.jpg
Thanks, I appreciate it.
It’s 1600 words.
> Jack Aubrey says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:26 pm (Edit)
Yeah, that’s a good one alright, and only about 1500 words this time…
Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Truly excellent HuffPost feature on the Gulf and South China Sea crises.
Too bad most of the comments are dumb, as usual.
Thanks, that’s very interesting.
I haven’t heard the term “Taiwan Patrol Force” for a very long time.
> Dana says:
July 18, 2012 at 3:03 pm (Edit)
The Naval War College in its Newport Papers series deals with some of the Asian issues mentioned in the Huffington Post piece
http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/Newport-Papers.aspx
#38, which was just published, gives the history of the Taiwan Patrol Force, which is descrtibed in the foreward thusly “Between 1950 and 1979, during the Cold War, much of the U.S. Navy’s relationship with China centered around the Taiwan Patrol Force, whose duties included patrolling the international waters off mainland China’s Fujian Province, which separates the mainland from the island of Taiwan.” Author Bruce A. Elleman notes the patrol did its job so well virtually nothing (until now) has been written on it.
He must know he can’t win.
> Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm (Edit)
I wonder if this makes Assad even more hardline.
Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:34 am
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
Thanks, I appreciate it. Actually, this has garnered more thoughtful comments than usual.
> Requiem says:
July 18, 2012 at 2:13 pm (Edit)
Truly excellent HuffPost feature on the Gulf and South China Sea crises.
Too bad most of the comments are dumb, as usual.
It’s just published.
> Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:40 am (Edit)
Hahah, I love it!
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MITT WHITMAN = MEG ROMNEY.
There is now.
> Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:40 am (Edit)
I hope there is video this time…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Brown will be joined state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Assembly Speaker John Perez and other state and local officials when he signs the High-Speed Rail funding bill (SB 1029) at Union Station in Los Angeles, and later at the future Transbay Transit Center in San Francisco.
Brown’s first signing event is at 10 AM at Union Station in Los Angeles.
His second signing event is at the Transbay Transit Center construction site at 2 PM in downtown San Francisco.
Indeed.
> Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:39 am (Edit)
It looks awesome!!
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
Great trailer for The Dark Knight Rises.
The UN has failed and I simply don’t know for sure.
> Capitol Boy says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:34 am (Edit)
What happens now??
Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good news video of Leon Panetta on the Syria crisis.
Other crises have cropped up.
> Jonas says:
July 18, 2012 at 12:26 pm (Edit)
More Gulf crisis video?
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