Rebekah Brooks, the former chief executive of News International, has been charged by the UK’s public prosecutor with perverting the course of justice, as the scandal enveloping Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp media empire deepens. Brooks, a close friend of British Prime Minister David Cameron, was something of a surrogate daughter to News Corp mogul Rupert Murdoch, owner of Fox News.
** QUICK HITS. A peer review panel that previously gave thumbs down on California’s high-speed rail project delivered a measured thumbs up today at a state Senate hearing. … Former President George W. Bush today endorsed Mitt Romney for president. I expect to see that in ads, just not Republican ads. …
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN’S UNSURPRISINGLY UNHAPPY BUDGET.
** NEW POLL: VOTERS SEE OBAMA AS THE WINNER IN NOVEMBER. By a very wide margin, President Barack Obama is viewed in a new Gallup Poll survey as the likely winner in November over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
These things have a tendency to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, even with most polls showing Romney competitive with Obama.
The history of these things is that the candidate expected to win is the candidate who does win.
Democrats are notably more enthiastic over their candidate’s prospects than are Republicans.
And by a 2 to 1 ratio, independents expect an Obama victory.
Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.
Americans are a bit more likely now to say Obama has a better chance of winning than they were at a similar point in 2008. A June 2008 Gallup poll found 52% predicting Obama would win, while 41% thought Republican John McCain would. By October 2008, weeks after the financial crisis, Americans were more certain Obama would win that election, 71% to 23%.
Including the 2008 election, Americans’ predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.
In three separate measurements in 2004, Americans thought Bush would be the winner in two and were split in their predictions in the other, conducted immediately after the Democratic convention. In the final prediction, from mid-October, 56% thought Bush would win and 36% thought Kerry would.
The accuracy of the 2000 election prediction is harder to evaluate, given that Al Gore won the popular vote and George W. Bush the electoral vote. In four out of five measurements that year, Americans thought Bush would win, though in the final measurement, taken in mid-September, Americans gave Gore the edge.
In an August 1996 poll, Americans overwhelmingly believed incumbent Bill Clinton (69%) would defeat Bob Dole (24%). …
** MAD MEN: DANGER! SLIPPERY WHEN SOAPY (ESPECIALLY IN DARK SHADOWS).If there’s one thing we know for sure about the latest episode of Mad Men, it’s this: All this soapiness can mean only one thing. People are about to die. You simply can’t have so many soap suds flying around without folks slipping and hitting their heads on the sharp edges of all the symbols lying about.
Heh.
I wrote this sentence in the second paragraph of “Mad Men (Finally) Returns: Worth the Wait?,” my piece here on the Huffington Post about the Mad Men season premiere: “I confess to a certain diffidence about it all, all two hours of it.”
I have more than a certain diffidence about the latest episode, which takes us into the final third of a great show’s uneven fifth season.
As always, there be some spoilers ahead. Incidentally, you can see all my Mad Men pieces, going back to 2009, here in The Mad Men File.
Dark Shadows , which I believe refers to the soapy ’60s vampire show, a rather dreadful affair not coincidentally just remade into the quite dreadful brand-new Tim Burton movie with Johnny Depp — Megan is doing auditions — is another big turn on the soap opera side of Mad Men.
Big things are happening in 1966 America, and in advertising, the business which the show revolves around, and which one of the lead characters just rejected in a very telling sign of the times. But all that is somewhere over …there.
Here’s what we have over here in this episode. Mostly unhappy self-involved people. And a couple of happy self-involved people.
And the return of Betty Draper Francis. A dieting Betty Draper Francis.
The plot twist of “Fat Betty” was the first of a few big plot twists I found arbitrary and unlikable. January Jones’s pregnancy sharply limited her availability for this season of the show. But she never ballooned anywhere near to the extent that her character did. Making Betty fat spurred a lot of chatter, and made the Betty-hating portion of the audience happy, but bored me. She’s unhappy, so she’s fat, and it’s ironic, which means yada yada.
Some of the biggest and best moments in this show have revolved around Betty, even though she was becoming a largely unlikable character. The “Souvenir” episode, in which the Drapers go to Rome and she dazzles Conrad Hilton with her beauty, smarts, education, and sophistication, illustrates how Don blew it with Betty and how she was left as a Grace Kelly type stuck in the suburbs.
She’s gone on to marry Henry Francis, a top advisor to Governor Nelson Rockefeller when we meet him, now a top advisor to Mayor John Lindsay. He moves in very high-level, sophisticated and, quite frankly, very glittering circles, more so than Don Draper does. Circles in which a wife like Betty is a major asset, as any smart pol knows.
Yet we’ve never seen her in these circles, as I’ve noted before. Where are the Rockefellers? Where are the power players around the glamorous and instantly very famous but somewhat fatuous new mayor of the Big Apple? (Who, incidentally, had quite an interest in advertising.) Instead, what glimpses we’ve had of Betty are in the same old suburban milieu as before, albeit with a different, more attentive husband.
So, Betty is back, again, and it’s more of the same. She’s dieting, but she’s unhappy, and she doesn’t want anybody else to be happier than she is.
Oh, and Don, who is kind of rusty because he’s been so busy being happy happy happy with Megan, does some work in this episode and is a little mean to the talented new guy. I’ll get to that after I attempt to sprint through the bathwater. Oh, and Roger has sex with his estranged trophy wife, because, well, because her character has been under-utilized and because it’s wash day. …
The US Armed Forces are expanding the number of jobs available to female soldiers that potentially would bring them near the front lines. The Pentagon has announced it will open more than 14,000 combat-related roles to women serving in the army, breaking with the long-held policy of excluding female soldiers from most jobs that would potentially put them in harm’s way, a move meant to help US women achieve promotion to the military’s highest ranks.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN’S UNSURPRISINGLY UNHAPPY BUDGET.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama then delivered remarks at the National Peace Officers Memorial Service at the U.S. Capitol Building.
Following that, he welcomed the Major League Soccer champions, the LA Galaxy, to the White House
East Room.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
Panetta is moving to expand the role of women in the US Armed Forces, allowing them to serve closer to the front lines — though that is a rather quaint concept in a time of asymmetric warfare — and have greater opportunity for promotion, especially in the Army.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with the U.S. Combatant Commanders in the Cabinet Room.
These officers, all four-star generals and admirals, command combined US forces in various regions of the world, or specialized commands such as special operations or strategic weapons.
At 4 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host a dinner for the Combatant Commanders and their spouses in the Blue Room of the White House.
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters early on Tuesday morning that JP Morgan’s $2 billion loss in risky trades is a perfect example of why President Barack Obama fought so hard for Wall Street reform and why the additional steps need to be taken.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
Brown spoke early this morning at a victims’ rights conference hosted by the California District Attorneys Association and the California Crime Victims Assistance Association at the Sheraton Grande Hotel.
As I wrote over the weekend, Brown delivered a very rugged California state budget in the annual “May revise” release on Monday. Brown has been warning for months about the need for more cuts, and the legislature has refused. (As I have mentioned, oh, 50 or 60 times.) Now the situation is, all too predictably, worse.
Naturally, I have a piece coming up on this, as well as the political and media reaction to the situation.
** NUCLEAR’S ONCE BRIGHT AND SHINY FUTURE BLINKS OUT.Don’t look now, but one of the biggest and most famous industries in the world, nuclear power, once seen as the lynchpin of the future, is reeling yet again after huge political setbacks in Japan and France.
Last year’s disaster at Fukushima is having an even bigger effect than the Chernobyl disaster of the ’80s. The latter could be blamed on the backward old Soviet Union. But Fukushima happened in future-oriented Japan.
May has seen the shutdown of all 54 nuclear reactors in Japan. Nuclear power had provided one-third of Japan’s electric power.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $59 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $21 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In his commencement address at Rev. Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University in Virginia, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney told students that marriage is between one man and one woman.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … JERRY BROWN’S UNHAPPY BUDGET and MAD MEN: “DARK SHADOWS.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
On Saturday morning, he and Vice President Joe Biden honored the 2012 National Association of Police Organizations (NAPO) TOP COPS award winners in the Rose Garden.
Obama has no scheduled public events on Sunday.
There’s a lot of confusion about the ballyhooed NATO Summit in Chicago, set to begin in little more than a week, and intended as a big boost to Obama’s geopolitical leadership, showcased in his hometown.
Will Pakistan participate at all in the big discussion on AfPak strategy? It doesn’t seem so. Are countries beginning a rush to the exits in Afghanistan?
How will NATO members advance needed technology when their budgets are in sharp decline? Though the US followed the lead of other nations in Libya, it was US forces who provided the necessary value-added in surveillance, intelligence, refueling, targeting, and command and control needed to make the air war a success.
And how will NATO handle relations with groups that wish to ally, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, and with groups that may be rivals, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and members such as Russia and China?
Does NATO have a unified position on missile defense? On expansion? On Iran?
Despite the big success in Libya, NATO’s future is still in question.
Obama is still riding a wave of enthusiasm inside Democratic circles in the wake of his endorsement of same-sex marriage, and in the aftermath of his record-setting fundraiser at George Clooney’s home.
After trying to avoid the issue, challenger Mitt Romney addressed it head on in his commencement address at fundamentalist minister Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University in rural Virginia, fully embracing the hardline conservative position on same-sex marriage.
That will help Romney with the 19th century constituency, not so much with the 21st century constituency.
But this is still a risky issue for Obama, who when he emerged several years ago struck me as a figure from the future. There are plenty of voters who are afraid of change, especially change that makes them uncomfortable, as gay marriage does.
Still, Obama had a good couple of days in the West, making effective appearances in Northern Nevada after his big night at Clooney’s. Which he followed up the next morning with a pick-up basketball game in which his and Clooney’s team emerged victorious over a team with Tobey Maguire, the former Spiderman, and some Secret Service guys.
The event the night before raised a record-setting $15 million, $6 million from the people on-site and another $9 million from online donations to a raffle for four lucky winners to attend.
One of those on-hand was my old Hart for President friend and colleague and best man John Emerson, once a top Bill Clinton aide and Hillary Clinton advisor who has become a top fundraiser for Obama, whom he’d known through the University of Chicago Law School connection.
The event drew some of the core Obama supporters, notably movie exec Jeffrey Katzenberg of Dreamworks, an early and key Obama backer who played a major role organizing the fundraiser, as well as a number of new major contributors.
Obama praised Clooney to the skies at the event, but also noted amusingly that the actor had been cropped out of the photo used for the famous Obama “Hope” posters. The two had appeared at an event on Darfur.
For his part, Clooney quipped: “Well, we have Iron Man, Spiderman, and Batman present tonight, so the Secret Service gets the night off.”
Clooney was referring to Robert Downey, Jr., Tobey Maguire, and himself. (Clooney played Batman in the last movie in the series before the Christopher Nolan reboot with Christian Bale. Some guy named Arnold Schwarzenegger portrayed Batman’s nemesis.)
Obama, as happens at these events, spent time at each table. And so did key members of the White House staff and political team, in what might be called a political form of speed dating.
Included in that were senior advisors David Plouffe and Valerie Jarrett, top campaign staffers from Chicago, LA consultant Larry Grisolano (a longtime partner of Obama strategist David Axelrod), and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who is serving as chair of the Democratic National Convention.
Here’s what Obama’s week ahead looks like. As usual, it does not reflect the geopolitical crises with which he’s dealing and as usual it has space within to allow for emerging issues.
On Monday, Obama will travel to New York City to deliver the commencement address at Barnard College. While in New York City, Obama will also tape an appearance on The View. Obama will then attend fundraisers before returning to Washington in the evening.
On Tuesday, Obama will deliver remarks at the National Peace Officers Memorial Service, an annual ceremony honoring law enforcement personnel who were killed in the line of duty in the previous year. Also on Tuesday, Obama will welcome the Major League Soccer champions, the LA Galaxy, to the White House to honor their 2011 season and their MLS Cup victory.
On Tuesday evening, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a dinner for the Combatant Commanders and spouses at the White House. These officers, all four-star generals and admirals, command combined US forces in various regions of the world, or specialized commands such as special operations or strategic weapons.
On Wednesday, Obama will deliver remarks in the Washington, DC area, where he will continue to call on Congress to act on his so-called “To Do List” emphasizing his economic themes. Also on Wednesday, he will posthumously award Army Sergeant Leslie H. Sabo, Jr. the Medal of Honor for conspicuous gallantry during the Vietnam War. Sabo, an Austrian native, was killed in the engagement, then suffered the further indignity of having the paperwork recommending his decoration lost for decades.
On Thursday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Friday, he will deliver the opening keynote to the Symposium on Global Agriculture and Food Security at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington.
Later on Friday, Obama will travel to Camp David for the G-8 Summit, which will address a broad range of economic, political and security issues.
On Saturday, he will remain at Camp David for the rest of the G-8 Summit.
Later on Saturday, Obama will travel to Chicago, Illinois, where he will welcome NATO allies and partners for the NATO Summit on May 20-21.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama again called on Democrats and Republicans to come together and act on his so-called Congressional “to-do list,” which emphasizes his economic themes.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** NUCLEAR’S ONCE BRIGHT AND SHINY FUTURE BLINKS OUT.Don’t look now, but one of the biggest and most famous industries in the world, nuclear power, once seen as the lynchpin of the future, is reeling yet again after huge political setbacks in Japan and France.
Last year’s disaster at Fukushima is having an even bigger effect than the Chernobyl disaster of the ’80s. The latter could be blamed on the backward old Soviet Union. But Fukushima happened in future-oriented Japan.
May has seen the shutdown of all 54 nuclear reactors in Japan. Nuclear power had provided one-third of Japan’s electric power.
Then came the defeat of French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
The new French administration plans to cut the nation’s use of nuclear power by one-third by 2025. Currently, France relies on nuclear power for 75% of its electricity. (The US gets 20% of its electric power from nuclear.) New Socialist President Francois Hollande’s plan would cut that to 50%. He also plans to shut down Fessenheim, France’s most famous nuclear plant, which is located in an area of seismic activity on the Rhine River.
Before these developments, Germany and Switzerland both decided to phase out nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.
These are huge developments in the energy economy, and a stunning reversal for a technology that once epitomized the future.
When former House Speaker Newt Gingrich emerged as a leading presidential candidate last year, I went back and read through some novels of the future by Isaac Asimov that he and others, such as left-liberal economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, cite as major influencers of their youth.
Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy, which Asimov began writing in 1941, is set in the far future. It revolves around the fall of the galactic empire and the rise of a discipline called psychohistory, the story element that so attracted Gingrich, Krugman, and others, in which human history can supposedly be predicted by a form of mathematical sociology. One thing that was so amusing to me in the stories, which are charming, is how nuclear power was constantly presented as a totem of advanced civilization, almost to the point of fetishism, with leading characters even having nuclear-powered personal devices.
By the ’80s, of course, nuclear was no longer such an element of faith among futurists. But it had become a staple of the Soviet bloc, with its penchant for centralization, and was well-established in Western countries as well. Such as, well, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and France.
I spoke at anti-nuclear rallies in the ’80s and knew the late German Green leader Petra Kelly well, but I’m open to nuclear power being part of the energy portfolio.
The news flow keeps going in the opposite direction, however, even though the greenhouse effect leading to climate change was advanced by nuclear advocates as a rationale for new expansion.
Nuclear power plants are expensive to construct, despite decades of massive subsidies for fission nuclear power, now a very mature technology. And the biggest subsidies are not the direct financial subsidies, which dwarf those given to renewable energy (as do subsidies for fossil fuels, a long mature industry), but the indirect but very real subsidies of socializing risks posed by radioactive waste and potential accidents and construction costs by shifting those to ratepayers and taxpayers.
And nuclear plants may be vulnerable to cyber-warfare, an increasing concern of defense strategists. Hacking in to take down a wind farm is not catastrophic, aside from the power loss, which can be made up. Hacking in to take down a nuclear power plant is a very different matter.
Looking beyond the problems with fission reactors, nuclear fusion may hold great promise in the future. But that future is still very far off.
Here in California, we had tremendous debates about nuclear in the 1970s and 1980s. Then, during his first two terms in office, Governor Jerry Brown rejected utility plans to build dozens of nuclear plants across the state, focusing California instead on conservation and renewable energy. The state’s moves on energy efficiency were highly successful, and have served as a model for many governments in the US and around the world.
After Brown left office the first time, renewable energy efforts lagged. But when his former chief of staff, Gray Davis, became governor in the late ’90s, he revived them, with a 20% Renewable Portfolio Standard.
Then Arnold Schwarzenegger amped them up tremendously, in the process enacting California’s landmark climate change program.
Now Brown, back as governor for an historic third term, is pushing forward to the target of one-third of the state’s electric power coming from renewable sources by 2020, a target first set by Schwarzenegger. I expect Brown to win another term in 2014, which would place him at the helm of these efforts through January 2019, the year before the 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard is to be reached. …
Governor Jerry Brown announced in this video that California’s budget deficit has ballooned to $16 billion, due to weaker revenues than expected, higher spending than expected due to blocking moves by the courts and federal government, and cuts called for in January that have yet to be made.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events this weekend.
Look for a very rugged California state budget from Governor Jerry Brown in the annual “May revise” release on Monday. Brown has been warning for months about the need for more cuts, and the legislature has refused. (As I have mentioned, oh, 50 or 60 times.) Now the situation is, all too predictably, worse.
Brown and his allies turned in about twice as many signatures as needed to qualify his November revenue initiative, and about twice as many as turned in by heiress Molly Munger’s minions for her income tax hike-for nearly all boost for schools. But many of those signatures will be invalid, as they always are, which accounts for the overage.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, in Sacramento on Thursday to meet with Brown and other California leaders, told legislative leaders that it is getting to be time to move forward on high-speed rail. LaHood urged the legislature to approve funds in June to start building the project this year or early next year, rather than put off a vote till September, the customary manana attitude.
Institutional investors are less impressed than many expected by Facebook’s prospects for future growth. I’m no Facebook fan, so it doesn’t surprise here.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $62 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $18 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Finishing his Western campaign swing today in Reno, Nevada, President Barack Obama called for a new refinancing program that will allow all underwater homeowners to refinance, regardless of whether the mortgage is government-backed.
** QUICK HITS.Look for a very rugged California state budget from Governor Jerry Brown in the annual “May revise” release on Monday. Brown has been warning for months about the need for more cuts, and the legislature has refused. (As I have mentioned, oh, 50 or 60 times.) Now the situation is, all too predictably, worse. … Brown and his allies turned in about twice as many signatures as needed yesterday to qualify his November revenue initiative, and about twice as many as turned in by heiress Molly Munger’s minions for her income tax hike-for nearly all boost for schools. But many of those signatures will be invalid, as they always are, which accounts for the overage. … There’s a lot of confusion about the ballyhooed NATO Summit in Chicago, set to begin in little more than a week. More to follow. … Meanwhile, Israel’s surprise new national unity government is sparking talk of a potentially imminent attack on Iran.Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer is on it in a new column in the Washington Post called “Echoes of ’67: Israel Unites.” Except, well, Israel is not uniting. Major figures from the nation’s security establishment have recently blasted the idea.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NUCLEAR’S BRIGHT AND SHINY FUTURE IS BLINKING OUT.
** NEW POLL: AMERICANS BACK OBAMA’S ENDORSEMENT OF SAME-SEX MARRIAGE BY SIX PERCENT. A new Gallup Poll survey has some good news for President Barack Obama.
By a 51% to 45% margin, his endorsement of same-sex marriage is approved.
Democrats back Obama’s move, 71-25. And so most independents, 53-44.
But Republicans, by a 74-23 margin, are even more opposed than Democrats are supportive.
Most, of course, say they won’t be swayed by Obama’s move. And of those who will, more say they are swayed to vote against Obama.
A closer look will reveal that those people were already staunchly anti-Obama.
What it may mean is that same-sex marriage is more important to the base of the Republican Party than it is to the Democratic Party base.
Or it may mean that the people who hate Obama and hate gay marriage are especially vehement in presenting their views.
Having no little experience with these folks, I tend to think the latter.
A majority of Americans, 60%, say President Barack Obama’s newly announced support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. Twice as many say it will make them less likely to vote for Obama as say more likely, though roughly half of the “less likely” group are Republicans who probably would not support Obama anyway. …
** NEW SURVEY: “EMOTIONAL HEALTH” REACHES FOUR-YEAR HIGH. The economic recovery is certainly wobbly enough, but a new Gallup Poll survey indicates that Americans’ emotional health is at its highest since Gallup started measuring it in January 2008.
It’s up especially since reaching a low ebb in September 2011.
That happened to coincide with the period after the meltdown of governance in Washington over raising the federal debt ceiling.
Americans’ emotional heath improved in April and, by a slight margin, is now higher than it has been in any month since Gallup and Healthways started tracking it in January 2008. Gallup’s U.S. Emotional Health Index score was 79.9 last month, slightly above the previous high of 79.8 recorded in March 2008 and May 2010. Americans’ emotional health has generally been improving since September, when it dropped to its lowest level in more than three years (78.3). …
Americans score better on all 10 of the Emotional Health Index measures in April than they did at the low point in September. The percentage of Americans who did not “worry a lot of the day yesterday” has improved the most. In April, 68.9% of Americans said they did not experience worry a lot of the previous day, up from 66.1% in September. Similarly, the percentage of Americans who said they did not experience stress was 59.9% in April, up from 57.6% in September.
Self-reported “enjoyment” has also increased. The percentage who said they experienced enjoyment a lot of the previous day rose to 85.6% in April, up from the three-year low of 83.0% in September. …
JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank in terms of assets, shocked global markets by revealing a trading loss of over two billion dollars, and acknowledging there could be another billion lost. It admitted there had been “errors” and “bad judgement” while it was attempting to protect itself against losses through a process known as hedging. The incident is particularly embarrassing because JPMorgan Chase’s boss, Jamie Dimon, has been strongly critical of the so-called Volcker rule which would limit such risky trading by big banks.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California, Nevada, and Washington, DC.
Obama flew this morning from Los Angeles to Reno, Nevada on Air Force One.
After arriving in Reno, Obama met with a local family at a private residence.
He then delivered remarks at a private residence pushing Congress to enact his agenda, his so-called “To Do List.”
Which, naturally, they mostly will not do. Which is the point.
Obama placed a special emphasis on mortgage relief in Reno. Nevada has been very hard hit by the housing finance crisis.
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama departs Reno an Air Force One en route Joint Base Andrews.
At 5:10 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 5:25 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
Obama is riding high after what may be the biggest fundraiser in presidential campaign history.
That was Thursday night at the Studio City home of George Clooney. The event raised $6 million on-site for the Obama Victory Fund, with another $9 million coming in online for a raffle for four lucky winners to hang with Obama and Clooney.
According to a source who was present, Clooney quipped: “Well, we have Iron Man, Spiderman, and Batman present tonight, so the Secret Service gets the night off.”
Clooney was referring to Robert Downey, Jr., Tobey Maguire, and himself. (Clooney played Batman in the last movie in the series before the Christopher Nolan reboot with Christian Bale. Some guy named Arnold Schwarzenegger portrayed his nemesis.)
More to follow on this event.
Republican challenger Mitt Romney, campaigning today in North Carolina and trying to get past revelations of his past as a prep school bully, had nothing to say about gay marriage. And he had nothing to say about the revelation of billions in trading losses from America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase.
Like the bank’s CEO, Romney opposes new regulation of the sort of trades that led to the losses.
Instead, Romney kept his head down and stuck to his generic message claiming he would be a better manager of the economy than Obama.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
President Barack Obama was hosted Thursday night at the Studio City home of George Clooney. The event raised $6 million on-site for the Obama Victory Fund, with another $9 million coming in online for a raffle for four lucky winners to hang with Obama and Clooney.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He was not at last night’s big fundraiser for President Barack Obama in Los Angeles.
At 8 PM, Brown will attend the Asia Society Northern California’s 9th Annual Dinner at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in San Francisco where he will be honored for his longstanding work to strengthen California’s relationship with Asia.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, in Sacramento yesterday to meet with Brown and other California leaders, told legislative leaders that it is getting to be time to move forward on high-speed rail. LaHood urged the legislature to approve funds in June to start building the project this year or early next year, rather than put off a vote till September, the customary manana attitude.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $62 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $18 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Chinese travel agencies have suspended trips to the Philippines because of rising tension between the two nations over a disputed island in the South China Sea.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NUCLEAR’S BRIGHT AND SHINY FUTURE BLINKS OUT.
** QUICK HITS.New unemployment claims dropped last week, following a sharp drop the week before. It comes at a good time for President Barack Obama. … U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, in Sacramento to meet today with Governor Jerry Brown and other California leaders, told legislative leaders that it is getting to be time to move forward on high-speed rail. LaHood urged the legislature to approve funds in June to start building the project this year or early next year, rather than put off a vote till September. … Legislators hoping for Facebook’s IPO to stave off, at least on a one-time basis, cuts Brown has been pushing since January are about to get some bad news. Institutional investors are less impressed than many expected by Facebook’s prospects for future growth.
** SCHWARZENEGGER OP-ED PRECEDED LATEST EXAMPLE OF THE REPUBLICANS’ BIG EXTREMISM PROBLEM. As if on cue, Indiana Republican primary voters provided just the latest dramatic example of extremism in the once Grand Old Party. The landslide vote rejecting Senator Richard Lugar, for decades one of the most important figures in geopolitics, in favor of a rather random Tea Party type, followed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Sunday LA Times piece, “GOP: Take Down That Small Tent,” by only two days.
Lugar had some sharp things to say about the corrosive effects of hyper-partisanship, especially in the Republican Party, in his Tuesday night speech.
“I don’t remember a time when so many topics have become politically unmentionable in one party or the other. Republicans cannot admit to any nuance in policy on climate change. Republican members are now expected to take pledges against any tax increases. For two consecutive Presidential nomination cycles, GOP candidates competed with one another to express the most strident anti-immigration view, even at the risk of alienating a huge voting bloc. Similarly, most Democrats are constrained when talking about such issues as entitlement cuts, tort reform, and trade agreements. Our political system is losing its ability to even explore alternatives. If fealty to these pledges continues to expand, legislators may pledge their way into irrelevance. Voters will be electing a slate of inflexible positions rather than a leader.”
Schwarzenegger, who is off to New Orleans to shoot the third of his post-gubernatorial movies, left office 16 months ago. He won two landslide elections as governor, each by 17 point margins. His job approval, which had sunk to the low 20s in the summer of 2010, in the midst of all sorts of crisis, improved to the low 30s by the time the final Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll came out in December 2010.
Since taking over in January 2011, successor Jerry Brown has run afoul of the same intractable forces Schwarzenegger grappled with.
Schwarzenegger’s Sunday article — in which he expressed dismay about the loss of two promising young Republicans to the ranks of independents, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, running for mayor of San Diego, and former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, running for Congress — actually prefigured what was about to happen to Lugar.
I’ve been writing my memoirs recently, and looking back at how I came to my political identity has reminded me that this election cycle marks my 44th year as a Republican. I can’t imagine being anything else.
That’s why I am so bothered by the party’s recent loss of two up-and-coming Republicans: San Diego mayoral candidate Nathan Fletcher, currently a state assemblyman, and former assemblyman and current Congressional candidate Anthony Adams, both of whom left the party to become independents. On the one hand, I respect their standing up for principle. On the other, I hate to see them go.
I’m sure they would have preferred to remain Republicans, but in the current climate, the extreme right wing of the party is targeting anyone who doesn’t meet its strict criteria. Its new and narrow litmus test for party membership doesn’t allow compromise. …
To succeed, Republicans need to embrace true Reaganism, and that means embracing the true Reagan, a brave and independent leader who believed in solutions and compromise.
As governor, Reagan was never afraid to buck his party. He raised taxes when he saw no other way to get California out of the red, and he created the California Environmental Protection Agency because, as strongly as he believed in eliminating unnecessary government regulation, he also saw wisdom in protecting our natural resources.
As president, Reagan worked very well with Democrats to do big things. It is true that he worked to reduce the size of government and cut federal taxes and he eliminated many regulations, but he also raised taxes when necessary. In 1983, he doubled the gas tax to pay for highway infrastructure improvements.
Today, that would be enough for some of the ideological enforcers to start looking for a “real” conservative to challenge him in a primary.
Some Republicans today aren’t even willing to have conversations about protecting the environment, investing in the infrastructure America needs or improving healthcare. By holding their fingers in their ears when those topics arise, these Republicans aren’t just denying themselves a seat at the table; in a state such as California, they also deny a seat to every other Republican.
The GOP’s history is filled with leaders who rejected ideology in favor of seeking solutions.
Teddy Roosevelt is still a hero among environmentalists for his conservationist policies. Dwight Eisenhower believed in the value of investing in infrastructure, and we can thank him for our highway system. Nixon, who originally attracted me to the party, nearly passed universal healthcare. He also created the national Environmental Protection Agency, which some modern Republicans want to close down.
Being a Republican used to mean finding solutions for the American people that worked for everyone. It used to mean having big ideas that moved the country forward.
It can mean that again, but big ideas don’t often come from small tents.
In my late March piece, “California Republicans Have Only Themselves To Blame,” I recounted my experience with Schwarzenegger’s prescient September 2007 speech to the California Republican Party convention outside Palm Springs, in which he decried the party’s sharp rightward move and warned of what was to follow in California politics if it continued. The slide rightward continued and so did the slide of the party, in registration and results.
Of course, political reforms pushed successfully by Schwarzenegger, namely the open primary and redistricting reform initiatives, are likely to have major impacts.
They will either force the Republicans to jettison much of their current leadership and approach. Or they will hasten the move of remaining moderate Republicans into the independent ranks.
I’ll have a lot more to say about this.
** NEW SURVEY: WIDESPREAD BELIEF IN BUSINESS CORRUPTION. Well, it’s not an era of trust.
A new Gallup Poll survey of opinion around the world shows widespread support for the belief that corrupt business practices are widespread.
In the US and Canada, 60% believe that corporate corruption is widespread, something which could be a major factor in the presidential elections. And that 60% figure is the low around the world for a region.
About two in three adults worldwide believe corruption is widespread in the businesses in their countries. This belief is relatively commonplace everywhere in the world — ranging from 60% in North America to a high of 76% in sub-Saharan Africa — but it tends to be higher in lower income regions. …
According to the World Bank, corruption is “one of the single largest obstacles to economic and social development.” Corruption in business is an important global concern that involves developing and developed countries. It can be difficult to accurately monitor corruption in business, particularly in countries with little or nonexistent transparency, making tracking their residents’ perceptions even more relevant.
Strong leadership, policies, laws, and greater transparency are necessary to fight corruption, which in turn may actually promote job creation and economic development. Business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs rely on a stable environment, but widespread corruption makes it difficult to estimate the risks involved in starting new enterprises.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, who began her own political career as Maryland political director of Governor Jerry Brown’s 1976 presidential campaign, calls President Barack Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage an “historic” event and says he did the right thing even if it costs him votes in the upcoming election.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, DC, Washington State, and California.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then flew on Air Force One to Seattle, Washington.
At 11:55 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Seattle, Washington.
At 12:50 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence.
At 3:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a campaign event at the Paramount Theater in Seattle.
At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama departs Seattle, Washington on Air Force One en route Los Angeles, California.
At 6:25 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Los Angeles.
At 7:20 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the home of Oscar-winning actor George Clooney.
Obama will RON in Los Angeles.
Tonight is the very big Obama fundraiser in LA at George Clooney’s home. The event, which was already big, is getting somewhat bigger in the wake of Obama’s dramatic endorsement yesterday of same-sex marriage.
These estimates float around, of course, but it looks like this event will raise about $15 million.
Which would make it the biggest fundraiser in presidential campaign history.
The money will be split between the Obama campaign per se and the Democratic National Committee fund devoted to promoting Obama’s re-election.
It breaks down to, roughly, $6 million from the people on hand at Clooney’s house, and another $9 million mostly raised online as promotion for a raffle to see which grassroots contributors get to hang out with Obama at George Clooney’s house, as the come-on actually puts it.
The country is split on the issue, but Hollywood certainly is not, nor are most elites, who believe that “it’s time to get into the 21st century,” as even Fox News host Shepherd Smith put it yesterday.
Mitt Romney is diametrically opposed, having come out not only against same-sex marriage but in favor of a U.S. constitutional amendment banning it, which would take away the rights of states to allow it.
Obama’s position is that the states should decide. Which happens to be the law as it stands today.
So Romney is actually more radical in his legal and policy stance than Obama.
Romney led a group of boys who pinned down the student and cut his hair, which Romney dubbed both too long and too blonde.
The Romney campaign, far from acting as though it has the upper hand on the gay marriage issue — which it might, with some swing voters in some swing states — is almost frantically trying to change the subject back to the economy.
But there, too, Obama has some new good news, in the form of gasoline prices that are going down. And oil prices have stabilized below $100 per barrel, even though the status of the Iran crisis is unclear with the Kadima party moving from opposition in Israel into a national unity government, taking away the September elections that loomed not long ago there.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
Governor Jerry Brown, accompanied by First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown and a dog called, I believe, Sutter Brown, turned in the petitions to qualify his November revenue initiative this morning at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters. Incidentally, I think the dog looks exactly like the Queen’s.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
This morning, he filed the signatures to qualify his November revenue initiative at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters. Brown and his allies gathered over 1.5 million signatures.
While a number of consultants, strategists, and advisors will be involved in the campaign, the lead consultants will be San Francisco-based SCN Campaigns, whose senior partner is longtime Democratic consultant Ace Smith.
Smith was Brown’s campaign director in his landslide victory for California attorney general in 2006.
Then the two men had a bit of a falling out, as Smith, who managed Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s re-election campaign, seemed to feel that Villaraigosa was the likely next governor.
That, of course, proved not to be the case. And it was unfortunate, because I felt that Smith did a very good job teaming up with Brown and Anne Gust Brown.
But the relationship was not easy to patch up. Smith did aid Brown’s 2010 campaign with some independent expenditure efforts early on. More to follow as we go.
Late yesterday, Brown issued the following statement on Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage, which Brown has championed for years:
“Equality before the law is a pillar of American democracy. I applaud President Obama’s support for the right of same-sex couples to marry.”
Brown is working on the “May revise” to his state budget proposal. As he does so, word came on Tuesday from state Controller John Chiang that revenues have ended up over $2.4 billion below expectations. As Brown has been warning all along, this 20% shortfall is something that needs to be made up.
And, after the customary legislative foot-dragging on state budget cuts, Brown yesterday warned state employee groups to expect more cost cutting, as predicted here.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $17 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In an interview today with ABC News, President Barack Obama said he now supports same-sex marriage, ending a long period of equivocation.
** QUICK HITS. New/renewed Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend will not attend the Obama-hosted G8 meeting on May 18-19 at Camp David. Instead, he will send Obama’s friend former President-turned-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Obama and Putin did not hit it off when Obama first visited Moscow, with the Russian powerhouse making Obama late for his big Moscow speech by forcing him to come to Putin’s dacha for a private meeting and then making the meeting run late. And Putin does not like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s criticism of his tough response to protesters. … Putin will, however, attend the big UN Summit on Sustainable Development next month in Rio. This meeting comes 20 years after the first Earth Summit in Rio. … As will newly elected French President Francois Hollande. … Unlike German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister. … But like former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. … Schwarzenegger’s successor, Governor Jerry Brown, who was at that first Earth Summit in Rio 20 years ago, after his presidential campaign, is unlikely to attend this time. He has the state’s chronic budget crisis to deal with. And, after the customary legislative foot-dragging on state budget cuts, Brown today warned state employee groups to expect more cost cutting.
** OBAMA’S UNSURPRISING “SURPRISE” ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE. Surprised that President Barack Obama has just come out in favor of same-sex marriage?
Well, he hits California tomorrow for some fundraising, notably a potential record-setting event at George Clooney’s crib.
Think the issue might have come up?
Vice President Joe Biden kicked things off the other day when he allowed as how he is now very comfortable with gay marriage.
Think of it as a trial balloon from the famously loose-lipped pol.
Then Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Obama’s friend from Chicago, said that he is for gay marriage.
Duncan can be fairly plain-spoken. But he’s not that out-spoken.
And another big balloon floated free.
The truth is that the country is pretty evenly split on same-sex marriage now, a major improvement for its advocates.
There is probably a slight edge in its favor.
And it has been shaping up for several years now as the prime civil rights issue of the era. It’s certainly time for straights to get over their squeamishness on the issue.
How could Obama not end up for it? And did you ever imagine that he did not privately back it?
His administration did a very effective job of reversing the Clinton era Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell policy on gays in the military. And former President Bill Clinton himself had already come out for gay marriage.
Obama himself opposed California’s Prop 8 anti-same sex marriage initiative in 2008 even as he was running for president the first time around.
What Obama has done is simply get his official position in line with what it had to be, all along.
Which is not to say that it is not risky.
Obama’s announcement comes just the day after North Carolina voters approved an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment with a whopping 61% of the vote. North Carolina is a swing state that Obama carried in 2008, in something of a surprise.
It’s not a state that Democrats have written off, either, as it will host this summer’s Democratic National Convention.
Virginia is another swing state in which his prospects could be negatively impacted by Obama’s announcement. But I expect that coverage from the Washington media market will impact that over time.
The reality is that same-sex marriage is inevitable. It’s a matter of when people become acclimated enough to accept it.
Mitt Romney, incidentally, is not only against gay marriage — though he seemed more pro-gay rights than Ted Kennedy when running against him for the U.S. Senate in 1994 — he is for an amendment to the Constitution banning it.
That’s change you can count on.
** NEW SURVEY: UNDEREMPLOYMENT RAMPANT AMONG YOUNG ADULTS. A new Gallup Poll survey reveals a big fissure in the employment market. Young adults, aged 18 to 29, are much more likely to be under-employed than their older counterparts.
While underemployment has worsened for young adults over the past year, it has improved for others.
Is this a problem for President Barack Obama in his re-election campaign?
Or is it an opportunity.
I think it’s both.
The lagging progress there can depress Obama’s turnout among young voters, who tend to favor him overwhelmingly.
But it also provides Obama the opportunity to portray Romney as a threat to any improvement.
Thirty-two percent of 18- to 29-year-olds in the U.S. workforce were underemployed in April, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up from 30.1% in March and is slightly higher than the 30.7% of a year ago. …
Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. Underemployment among 18- to 29-year-olds has hovered around 30% for most of the past year, showing no real improvement. Underemployment among all Americans has declined over the past year to 18.2% in April from 19.3% in April 2011. …
FBI Director Robert Mueller this morning urged Congress to renew wide-ranging surveillance authority to thwart terrorism plots like the latest reported one in which an Al Qaeda-engineered explosive device was to have been detonated on a U.S.-bound airline flight.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden received the daily intelligence and economic briefing in the Oval Office.
At 11:10 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with NATO Secretary-General Rasmussen in the Oval Office.
At 11:45 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner in the Oval Office.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host a concert in the East Room honoring songwriters Burt Bacharach and Hal David as part of “In Performance at the White House” series.
Last night’s landslide defeat of Indiana Senator Richard Lugar removes a sometime Obama ally on geopolitical matters but puts a Senate seat in play for Democrats.
Lugar and Obama worked together when Obama was a freshman senator on the Foreign Relations Committee, and the veteran Indiana senator, first elected in 1976, continued their relationship during Obama’s presidency.
But Lugar, who helped settle the big Philippine crisis in the ’80s, while a conservative, wasn’t nearly conservative enough for a radicalized primary electorate. It’s the Republicans’ loss, really, and the country’s.
Senator Richard Lugar, former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and its ranking Republican member, lost in a landslide last night in Indiana’s Republican primary to a Tea Party candidate. Lugar’s defeat ends the Senate career of someone who helped forge bipartisan geopolitical solutions and puts Indiana’s Senate seat in play.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
At 11:30 AM, Brown honors fallen highway workers at the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) 22nd Annual Workers Memorial Ceremony.
Brown this morning appointed Malcolm Dougherty to be director of the California Department of Transportation.
Daugherty, appointed chief deputy director by Arnold Schwarzenegger, has been acting director of the sprawling agency since last year.
Brown is working on the “May revise” to his state budget proposal. As he did so, word came from state Controller John Chiang that revenues have ended up over $2.4 billion below expectations. As Brown has been warning all along, this 20% shortfall is something that needs to be made up.
I’m not sure how honored state employees will feel after seeing the revised state budget. There is a price to be paid for putting off cuts.
** MAD MEN: REJECTING ADVERTISING, OR, DON DRAPER MEETS ACID ROCK, POP BUDDHISM, AND AN INDEPENDENT WIFE.
“Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream. It is not dying, it is not dying.
Lay down all thought, surrender to the void. It is shining, it is shining.
That you may see the meaning of within. It is being, it is being.”
John Lennon and Paul McCartney
from Tomorrow Never Knows, on the album Revolver
Don’t look now, but something important just happened on Mad Men. A major character, someone with real talent in the field, just rejected advertising. Someone who happens to be ad guru Don Draper’s bright and shiny new wife.
Megan Calvet Draper’s Marxist academic father, who so disapproves of her work in advertising, and of her life of easing into wealth by marrying a rich older man, evidently got through to his daughter in the episode before this. She’s now pursuing her dream, which was unclear then but turns out to be acting. And she is resonating to big cultural influences posing fundamental questions about the big money machine she’s a cog in on Madison Avenue. …
Megan is certainly familiar with the concept of false consciousness from her Marxist academic father. The Beatles song that she tells Don to listen to gets at false consciousness, not from a materialist standpoint, as her father would have it, but from a spiritual standpoint.
This is the first time I can recall an actual Beatles song being licensed for use on a TV series. It’s extremely expensive to do, and it’s hard to get approval even with payment, so I would bet that Matthew Weiner has a reason for doing it. At the reported $250,000 (!), he had better.
Megan’s not the only one questioning advertising. Irritating Stan, who arrived at the agency as something of a star after doing some work on President Lyndon Johnson’s re-election campaign, reacts to Megan’s departure by noting that you work hard for a long time on an account, and for what? “Heinz. Baked. Beans.”
Really now, Stan, what do you think this is, anyway? The ’60s?
Before we get back to that, let’s deal with the soapy side of the show. …
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $17 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an abrupt about face Tuesday and instead of calling early elections, he made a deal for a coalition government instead. He unveiled it later alongside Kadima party chief Shaul Mofaz. Does the absence of an election this fall make an attack on Iran more or less likely?
** QUICK HITS. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, off shooting his third movie since leaving the governorship, created a stir over the weekend with his Los Angeles Times op-ed on the woeful California Republican Party which, as he noted, has lost two of its most promising young politicians of late to the ranks of the independents. More to follow. … Schwarzenegger’s successor, Governor Jerry Brown, is working on the “May revise” to his state budget proposal. As he did so, word came from state Controller John Chiang that revenues have ended up over $2.4 billion below expectations. As Brown has been warning all along, this 20% shortfall is something that needs to be made up. … Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, a giant in geopolitical circles and the longest serving Republican, lost his bid for re-nomination in today’s primary election in a 60-40 landslide to some Tea Party pol I’d never heard of before this. Lugar is a conservative, but not a radical, which means he gets called a centrist by some of the newer journo types. More to follow.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: REJECTING ADVERTISING, OR, DON DRAPER MEETS ACID ROCK, POP BUDDHISM, AND AN INDEPENDENT WIFE.
** NEW SURVEY: ODDLY ENOUGH, THEY REALLY LIKE THE BLACK GUY WITH THE FUNNY NAME.A new Gallup Poll survey points up a big advantage for President Barack. And a big problem for conservative challenger Mitt Romney.
Obama is personally quite popular. And Romney, well, he is not.
By a stunning 2 to 1 ratio, voters prefer Obama as a person to Romney.
That’s not going to make all those attack ads from Romney and the super PAC crews of Karl Rove et al go down any easier.
But it will make Obama’s attacks on Romney easier.
It’s always easier to believe bad things about someone you don’t like.
Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say Barack Obama, rather than Mitt Romney, is the more likable of the two presidential candidates. Obama’s 60% to 31% advantage on this characteristic is the largest for either candidate on five separate dimensions tested in a May 1-2 USA Today/Gallup poll. …
In fact, Obama leads or statistically ties Romney on each of the five dimensions tested in the poll. He holds a significant lead on caring about the needs of people and being a strong and decisive leader. Romney’s best showing is on managing the government effectively, for which he holds a slight but not statistically meaningful 46% to 43% edge over Obama.
As would be expected, Republicans see Romney as the candidate who better exemplifies each of the five positive characteristics, while Democrats choose Obama for all five. Obama’s overall advantages are due to his stronger showing among independents, and slightly higher scores among Democrats than Romney receives among Republicans, on most characteristics. …
Pressuring Congress, President Barack Obama is laying out an election year “to do” list Tuesday that urges lawmakers to take another look at economic proposals to promote job creation and help families refinance their mortgages.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: REJECTING ADVERTISING, OR, DON DRAPER MEETS ACID ROCK, POP BUDDHISM, AND AN INDEPENDENT WIFE.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and New York.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefing in the Oval Office.
He then flew on Air Force to Albany, New York, where he toured the SUNY (State University of New York) – Albany Nano-Tech Complex.
Obama then delivered remarks on the economy at the NanoFab Extension Building at SUNY-Albany.
Obama then departed Albany, New York on Air Force en route Joint Base Andrews.
At 12:25 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 12:40 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 2:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers the keynote address at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies (APAICS) 18th Annual Gala Dinner at the Ritz-Carlton.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
Brown gave remarks early this morning honoring fallen officers at the California Highway Patrol Memorial Ceremony at the California Highway Patrol Academy in West Sacramento.
** THE CURIOUS CHEN CRISIS SPOTLIGHTS OUR BIG CHINA CONUNDRUM.As if he didn’t have enough geopolitical crises already. …
The whole thing is very odd. How did Chen, who is blind, escape through layers of custody and get to and gain entrance to the U.S. embassy in the first place? Was he allowed to do so to create a crisis in the midst of high-level U.S./China negotiations? If so, why? If not, well, perhaps it’s just an odd confluence of events.
It all highlights what a conundrum that leaders from Washington to California face in dealing with the challenges and opportunities presented by a clearly ascending and not very well understood China. … From my May 4th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The Avengers stunned observers and shattered the record for an opening weekend with an amazing $207.4 million in domestic box office. The previous record, set last year by the last Harry Potter film, was $169.2 million. Prior to that, the record was $158.4 million by The Dark Knight. The Avengers opened a week earlier in various international markets and has already hit $700 million in global box office.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $17 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
With potential US venues rejecting the trial, five men accused of masterminding the September 11, 2001, attacks will be formally charged in front of a military tribunal at Guantanamo Bay. The defendants are expected to disrupt the proceedings.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: “Lady Lazarus.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE WEEK AHEAD. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Ohio, and Virginia.
On Saturday, Obama hits the campaign trail for official — as distinguished from the “unofficial” campaign events we’ve already seen — rallies in the battleground states of Ohio and Virginia.
On Sunday, he has no scheduled public events.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He and First Lady Michelle Obama then flew on Marine One to Joint Base Andrews, where they boarded Air Force One, and proceeded to Columbus, Ohio.
At 9 AM Pacific, the Obamas arrived in Columbus, Ohio.
At 10:20 AM Pacific, the president and first lady deliver remarks at a campaign event at Value City Arena-Schottenstein Center in Columbus, Ohio.
At 11:55 AM Pacific, the Obamas depart Columbus, Ohio on Air Force One en route Richmond, Virginia.
At 1 PM Pacific, the Obamas arrive in Richmond, Virginia.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, the president and first lady deliver remarks at a campaign event at Verizon Wireless Arena-Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, Virginia.
At 2:55 PM Pacific, the Obamas depart Richmond, Virginia on Air Force One en route Joint Base Andrews.
At 3:35 PM Pacific, the Obamas land at Joint Base Andrews, where they board Marine One.
At 3:50 PM Pacific, the Obamas land on the South Lawn of the White House.
If you’re wondering about the extensive use of public presidential resources on an official campaign trip, it’s standard practice for many years.
The campaign reimburses the treasury for the trip.
What’s the new Obama campaign theme, you ask? “Forward.”
As in, not backward. Like, say, “We can’t afford to go back.”
Where have I heard that?
And whatever could it imply about Mitt Romney?
Let me think.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama says that the US is in “a new chapter in Afghanistan.” (Which, unfortunately, and not surprisingly, has much the same storyline.) He calls on Congress to take the money we are no longer spending at war, use half of it to pay down our debt, and use the other half to rebuild America.
Obama has an interesting week ahead. Much of his public schedule, as usual, does not reflect the various crises he is attempting to manage. And there is significant time built in for needed adjustments.
On Monday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House and also hold a conference call with elected officials and student government leaders from across the country to discuss the need to prevent rates from doubling on July 1.
On Tuesday, Obama will travel to Albany, New York for an official event on the economy. In the evening, Obama will return to Washington to deliver the keynote address at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies 18th Annual Gala Dinner at the Ritz Carlton.
On Wednesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House. In the evening, as part of their “In Performance at the White House” series, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a concert in the East Room honoring songwriters Burt Bacharach and Hal David, who will be awarded the 2012 Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song. In 2011, Obama presented the award to Paul McCartney. In 2009, the recipient was Steve Wonder. Among those performing will be Sheryl Crow, Michael Feinstein, Diana Krall, Lyle Lovett, Mike Myers, Rumer, Arturo Sandoval, and Sheléa and Stevie Wonder.
On Thursday, Obama will travel to Seattle, Washington and Los Angeles, California for campaign events. Obama will RON in LA.
On Friday, Obama will travel to Reno, Nevada for an official event on the economy. In the afternoon, he returns to Washington.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
The first trailer to The Expendables 2, sequel to the 2010 action movie hit The Expendables, has just been released. That, as you may notice, is Governor Jerry Brown’s predecessor, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in there, playing a bigger role than his cameo in the first film. Bruce Willis has a bigger role, too, alongside Sylvester Stallone and his cast of mostly retro action stars.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown has no scheduled public events.
Brown spoke on Thursday, as I’ve mentioned before, at the annual Bay Area Council Outlook Conference in San Jose.
Also there was his 1992 presidential campaign opponent, former President Bill Clinton.
The campaign between the two, in which Brown finished as the distant runner-up for Democratic presidential nomination, was frequently bitter.
Clinton praised Brown’s approach as governor, endorsing his November revenue initiative in the process, and said that California, though it is having tough times, “will come roaring back.”
“We have a younger workforce than Japan and Europe. We’ll have a younger workforce than China in 20 years,” Clinton said. “It’s easier to start a business here. And we’re still the center of innovation in the world.”
Asked about the 2012 presidential election, Clinton predicted that the race will be close much of the way, but that Barack Obama will win by five or six points over Mitt Romney.
Brown, incidentally, has paid no money to consultants for his November revenue initiative. Signature gathering is complete for the measure.
But if they tell her she doesn’t know what she’s doing, they ain’t getting those big bucks.
Hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, an effective co-chair with Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Shultz of the successful campaign to defeat the 2010 initiative to stop California’s landmark climate change program, had his organization pushing a November initiative to eliminate a billion dollar corporate tax break in favor of help for green energy and the state budget deficit go ahead and turn in nearly a million signatures today. The complex tax break, which benefits out-of-state companies which do not create jobs in California, was adopted as part of the 2009 budget deal which enacted temporary tax hikes.
Brown is said to prefer that Steyer not go ahead with the initiative, for which former Secretary of State Shultz again serves as co-chairman, fearing ballot clutter on fiscal measures. I don’t know if that is so or not, but if that is Brown’s opinion, I don’t agree with it.
Some of the usual state Republican operatives are working with a coalition to oppose ending the corporate tax break, which consists of Chrysler, General Motors, International Paper, Kimberly-Clark, and Procter & Gamble. I’m told that tobacco companies will also pitch in, after they get through fighting the latest initiative next month to try to raise cigarette taxes.
** THE CURIOUS CHEN CRISIS SPOTLIGHTS OUR BIG CHINA CONUNDRUM.As if he didn’t have enough geopolitical crises already.
President Barack Obama got a complicated new crisis to manage this week, this one in China, where blind dissident icon Chen Guancheng — who, somehow, escaped house arrest in his village and made his way hundreds of miles to the U.S. embassy, where he received temporary sanctuary — “voluntarily” left the embassy and returned to Chinese soil.
With supposed new safeguards for his freedom, it was hailed as a diplomatic success by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Then Chen said that he had been coerced to leave the U.S. embassy by Chinese government threats to incarcerate his wife. Or even kill her.
Then the activist reached out to Republicans in Congress, seeking to come to the U.S. on Hillary’s plane when it leaves China. Clinton was there to work on bilateral relations with the Middle Kingdom, which already theatened a turn for the worse. Later, a resolution of sorts seems to have been achieved, in which Chen, joined by his family, will come to America “temporarily” as a new fellow of New York University.
The whole thing is very odd. How did Chen, who is blind, escape through layers of custody and get to and gain entrance to the U.S. embassy in the first place? Was he allowed to do so to create a crisis in the midst of high-level U.S./China negotiations? If so, why? If not, well, perhaps it’s just an odd confluence of events.
It all highlights what a conundrum that leaders from Washington to California face in dealing with the challenges and opportunities presented by a clearly ascending and not very well understood China. … From my May 4th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $98.49 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In a brief respite in between crises, President Barack Obama paid tribute to a young University of Kentucky men’s basketball team for winning the NCAA championship last month. He admits Kentucky wasn’t the team he had picked to win.
** QUICK HITS. Governor Jerry Brown has paid no money to consultants for his November revenue initiative. In contrast, heiress Molly Munger is spending over $100,000 a month on consultants for her zombie income tax hike for nearly all initiative. Some pretty big names, too. Who I am absolutely sure know better. But if they tell her she doesn’t know what she’s doing, they ain’t getting those big bucks. … Hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, an effective co-chair with Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Shultz of the successful campaign to defeat the 2010 initiative to stop California’s landmark climate change program, had his organization pushing a November initiative to eliminate a billion dollar corporate tax break in favor of help for green energy and the state budget deficit go ahead and turn in nearly a million signatures today. The complex tax break, which benefits companies which do not create jobs in California, was adopted as part of the 2009 budget deal which enacted temporary tax hikes. … Brown is said to prefer that Steyer not go ahead with the initiative, fearing ballot clutter on fiscal measures. I don’t know if that is so or not, but if that is Brown’s opinion, I don’t agree with it.
** THE CURIOUS CHEN CRISIS SPOTLIGHTS OUR BIG CHINA CONUNDRUM.As if he didn’t have enough geopolitical crises already.
President Barack Obama got a complicated new crisis to manage this week, this one in China, where blind dissident icon Chen Guancheng — who, somehow, escaped house arrest in his village and made his way hundreds of miles to the U.S. embassy, where he received temporary sanctuary — “voluntarily” left the embassy and returned to Chinese soil.
With supposed new safeguards for his freedom, it was hailed as a diplomatic success by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Then Chen said that he had been coerced to leave the U.S. embassy by Chinese government threats to incarcerate his wife. Or even kill her.
Then the activist reached out to Republicans in Congress, seeking to come to the U.S. on Hillary’s plane when it leaves China. Clinton was there to work on bilateral relations with the Middle Kingdom, which already theatened a turn for the worse. Later, a resolution of sorts seems to have been achieved, in which Chen, joined by his family, will come to America “temporarily” as a new fellow of New York University.
The whole thing is very odd. How did Chen, who is blind, escape through layers of custody and get to and gain entrance to the U.S. embassy in the first place? Was he allowed to do so to create a crisis in the midst of high-level U.S./China negotiations? If so, why? If not, well, perhaps it’s just an odd confluence of events.
It all highlights what a conundrum that leaders from Washington to California face in dealing with the challenges and opportunities presented by a clearly ascending and not very well understood China.
Whatever is really going on with Chen, it could hardly have been less opportune, with Clinton and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in Beijing to try to work out better economic and financial arrangements with the fast-rising power, as well as try to coordinate efforts on the crises with North Korea, Iran, and Syria.
In the midst of it all, we of course have reflexive super-hawk Mitt Romney — who toughed out the Vietnam War, which he strongly advocated, as a Mormon missionary in France — saying Obama is weak and he would be tougher with China, whatever that means. Which is quite ironic, since Romney made his incredible fortune in the leveraged buyout business, a business in which I don’t believe he ever went out of his way to alienate his lenders.
For the U.S. and China have a symbiotic economic relationship. We provide China with markets for their hyperactive export sector. China provides us with debt financing.
But China is on the rise, while the U.S., having made some massive mistakes, is struggling to hold on to its post-World War II and post-Cold War preeminence.
Yet China has big problems of its own, not the least of which is a huge and increasingly restive population which wants to share in a revolution of rising material expectations and chafes at the authoritarianism of one of the world’s last Communist governments. China’s government has reacted with alarm to the Arab Awakening, probably fearing such an awakening among its own people, as a result joining Russia, which also cracks down on internal dissent, in opposing widespread international moves to support human rights and democracy. …
The unemployment rate dipped again last month, to 8.1%, but job growth was lower than hoped.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama then held a roundtable discussion with a group of high school seniors and their parents at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington, Virginia.
Obama then delivered remarks about the importance of having the opportunity for affordable higher education, also at Washington-Lee High School in Arlington.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama welcomes the University of Kentucky men’s basketball team to the White House Rose Garden.
The Kentucky Wildcats are this year’s national collegiate champions.
It’s a game that Obama played himself, on Hawaii’s state high school basketball championship team and at Occidental College in California, which he attended before transferring to Columbia University in New York.
Obama got some mixed news today on the economy.
While the unemployment rate dipped again, this time to 8.1%, job growth was somewhat lower than expected.
Still the economy continues to grow, despite continued slashing of government jobs.
But there is little margin for error, which is why geopolitical crises are so important.
That said, crude oil is sliding today in global markets.
That is because an Israeli military strike against Iran looks less likely amidst all the sudden open opposition from key members of the security apparat.
And Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is talking about an early election this year, while his coalition still has an edge despite economic woes. That may militate against military action as well.
Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng, who fled house arrest and made his ways hundreds of miles to the US embassy just as high-level US/China negotiations were about to begin, will now apparently be allowed to take his family to study in the US as a fellow at New York University.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown has left the state.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
With Brown’s November revenue initiative wrapping up the signature phase of its campaign, as he noted in remarks yesterday in Silicon Valley, California Republican Party leaders kicked off what they say will be a “whistle-stop” campaign against the ballot measure at the Capitol. State GOP Chairman Tom DelBeccaro, Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, and Assembly Minority Leader Connie Huff, defensively dubbing themselves the “Party of Yes” rather than the Party of No, urged a no vote but did not lay out a campaign plan for the cash-strapped party.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
In a small film you may have heard of called The Avengers, Tony Stark aka Iron Man (played by Jerry Brown friend Robert Downey, Jr.), spars with Loki (played by some clever Brit). The film, which has already taken in over $300 million in various international markets, opens across North America today.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $98 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Papers released today from Osama bin Laden’s hideaway in Pakistan, seized a year ago in the Navy SEAL raid, paint a picture of Al Qaeda’s leader deeply concerned about the state of his movement and its allies and determined both to reboot and to stage another spectacular attack on America.
** QUICK HITS. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suddenly has a real hot potato on her hands with the Chen Guangcheng situation, discussed here yesterday. Now the blind activist is reaching out to Republicans in Congress seeking to come to the US, on Hillary’s plane when it leaves China. She’s there to work on bilateral relations with the Middle Kingdom, which are on the verge of taking a turn for the worse. … With Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative wrapping up the signature phase of its campaign, California Republican Party leaders kicked off what they say will be a “whistle-stop” campaign against the ballot measure today at the Capitol. State GOP Chairman Tom DelBeccaro, Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, and Assembly Minority Leader Connie Huff, defensively dubbing themselves the “Party of Yes” rather than the Party of No, urged a no vote but did not lay out a campaign plan for the cash-strapped party.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE SUDDEN IMPACT CHEN CRISIS HIGHLIGHTS THE CHINA CONUNDRUM.
** NEW SURVEY: JOB CREATION UP, DESPITE GOVERNMENT CUTS. A new Gallup Poll survey indicates that US job creation is near a four-year high.
Despite continued declines in public sector employment.
Even the West, which has been a trailing region for the past few years, is looking significantly better.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index increased to +20 in April from +18 in March. Net new hiring is now at its best level since July 2008 and is near +26 — the highest score Gallup has recorded since tracking began in January 2008. …
The April Job Creation Index of +20 is based on 36% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring workers and expanding the size of their workforce, and 16% saying their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of their workforce. This is similar to March, when 35% of workers reported workforce expansion at their place of work, while 17% reported workforce reduction.
The current 36% “hiring” figure is the highest since August 2008, and the current 16% “letting go” figure is the lowest since July of that year. …
Regionally, job creation is best in the South, with an April Job Creation Index of +23, surpassing the Midwest at +21. The index is +18 in the West and +16 in the East. …
While private-sector workers report better levels of hiring, with a Job Creation Index of +25 in April, government employees are reporting more firing than hiring, with an index score of -7.
Job creation has been in negative territory in all areas of government since late 2011, though the federal government has recently been the most negative. In April, job creation was at -16 as reported by federal government employees, compared with -3 at state governments and -1 at local governments. …
Chen Guangcheng, the blind Chinese activist, now says he wants to leave for the US rather than stay in China, throwing into grave doubt a deal used to coax him out of the US embassy in Beijing and defuse an impasse that has strained China-US ties even as he says he feels abandoned by US officials. Chen, a self-taught legal activist, is under Chinese control in a Beijing hospital, having left the embassy on Wednesday.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE SUDDEN CHEN CRISIS HIGHLIGHTS THE CHINA CONUNDRUM.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
At 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 11 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a Cinco de Mayo Reception in the Rose Garden.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.
At 3:35 PM, Brown speaks at the Bay Area Council’s 2012 Outlook Conference at the California Theater in San Jose.
The coalition backing Brown’s November revenue appears ready to turn in its signatures after a whirlwind month-and-a-half qualification drive.
In its latest odd move, heiress Molly Munger’s income tax hike for all education initiative turned in some of its signatures yesterday in Los Angeles. And promises to turn in the rest, ah, elsewhere, sometime in the next week.
Brown is joined today at the annual Bay Area Council Outlook Conference by his 1992 presidential rival, former President Bill Clinton.
That reminds me that the 20th anniversary of Brown’s last presidential campaign is just about upon us. Which will lead to a very interesting and fun piece.
Former Secretary of State Condi Rice, another old acquaintance, from the days when she served on an advisory board of Senator Gary Hart’s think tank during his second presidential campaign, also speaks at the conference.
President Barack Obama spoke to a national and global audience late Tuesday during his surprise visit to Afghanistan around the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL raid inside Pakistan that took down Osama bin Laden..
** SEALED UP, BUT NOT SEALED OVER: THE OSAMA BIN LADEN RAID AT 1. … From my May 1st essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $69 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The Taliban struck Kabul today in the immediate aftermath of President Barack Obama’s surprise visit to Afghanistan.
** QUICK HITS. In its latest odd move, heiress Molly Munger’s income tax hike for all education initiative turned in some of its signatures today in Los Angeles. And promises to turn in the rest, ah, elsewhere, sometime in the next week. Keep us posted on that. … Munger’s initiative trails badly in all polls, despite some spin efforts claiming the contrary that make up in persistence for what they lack in intelligence. … Governor Jerry Brown, whose November revenue initiative leads in all polls, even the recent PPIC poll which gives the same result for a revamped measure made more popular in other polls, speaks tomorrow at the annual Bay Area Council Outlook Conference. As does his 1992 presidential rival, former President Bill Clinton. … That reminds me that the 20th anniversary of Brown’s last presidential campaign is just about upon us. Which will lead to a very interesting and fun piece. … Former Secretary of State Condi Rice, another old acquaintance, from the days when she served on an advisory board of Gary Hart’s think tank, also speaks at the conference.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Afghanistan and Washington.
Obama left Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan very early this morning on Air Force One en route Joint Base Andrews, where he arrived late this morning East Coast time.
He then boarded Marine One and flew to the White House.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
Obama pulled off a surprise visit to Afghanistan yesterday.
Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai signed an agreement aimed at cementing a lasting but very limited U.S. commitment to Afghanistan after the long and unpopular war comes to an end. The Afghans appear to have gotten most of what they wanted in gaining control over U.S. operations.
Look for an ongoing but vastly scaled down presence after 2014, with US personnel in a support and training role only.
Unless the Karzai government collapses relatively quickly.
The Taliban struck inside the capital city Kabul only hours after Obama and Karzai concluded their deal. Seven people were killed in the “Green Village” of international workers not far from the presidential palace. Schools were shut down today.
Obama also has a complicated crisis to manage in China, where over the weekend blind dissident icon Chen Guancheng — who escaped informal house arrest in his village and made his way to the US embassy, where he received temporary sanctuary — “voluntarily” left the embassy and returned to Chinese soil.
It was hailed as a diplomatic success by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, slated already for days of talks with top Chinese officials, and those same officials.
Then Chen said that he had been coerced to leave the US embassy by Chinese government threats to incarcerate his wife. Or even kill her.
How did Chen, who is blind, escape custody and get to and gain entrance to the US embassy in the first place?
Is there a plan of some sort here? Or is this just a comedy of errors sort of crisis?
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich ended his presidential campaign today. He had planned to make the announcement yesterday, but realized that he would be totally lost in the shuffle of the first anniversary of the bin Laden raid, which some see as being today. It was May 2 in Pakistan when bin Laden was killed, though the raid began the previous day. And it was always May 1 in the US during the whole of the raid.
Gingrich had previously pulled back from his campaign, as discussed here, but kept a semblance of it going to try to take part in the campaign dialogue.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, appearing this morning in Arlington, Virginia, formally suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
But that didn’t work very well. And now, with Rick Santorum out, that Mitt Romney is the de facto GOP nominee, there’s little sense continuing in any guise. Though that doesn’t seem to bother Ron Paul.
Gingrich has only “suspended” his campaign, because he needs to keep raising money to pay off big campaign debts.
Gingrich, like Santorum, did not endorse Romney.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** MAD MEN: TO THE MOON! (AND CRASHING BACK AGAIN).Somewhere, Conrad Hilton is saying he always thought Don Draper should listen to his wife. He always wanted the Moon, that ultimate symbol of Space Age striving in the ’60s, from Don, and he didn’t get it, which is why he dumped him at the end of Season 3. But Megan’s brainstorm, which merely saves the day with Heinz, all primed to fire the agency after Peggy Olson’s gaffes, finally delivers it. For Heinz, though, not Hilton.
“There’s something happening here / What it is ain’t exactly clear …”
As always, there be some spoilers ahead. Incidentally, you can see all my Mad Men pieces, going back to 2009, here in The Mad Men File.
Since Don and Megan actually seem to talk — she knows he is Dick Whitman and isn’t thrown in the least by it — she probably knows about the unrealized Hilton Moon shot ad that eliminated Don’s most important client by far.
After a few weeks of episodes dominated by stagey set pieces driven by forced plotting, entertaining though it was, which was perhaps prompted by complaints that not enough happens on the show, Mad Men is back to its more customary approach of organic storytelling.
Three young women, in one case, extremely young, get (most of) what they think they want. But it doesn’t suffice. Not by a long shot. Each excitedly sees the stars in this episode, only to be drawn back, as ever, to a dour world view.
Oh, and Don Draper learns about the hypocrisy of big New York corporations. That might be significant, in the early fall of 1966. …
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.
It’s JB meets JB, and the debut of First Dog Sutter Brown at a press conference.
At 2:30 PM, Brown joins actor Pierce Brosnan, star of four James Bond films in the ’90s and early Naughties, Dog Whisperer Cesar Millan, and California First Dog Sutter Brown at an event at Petco in the Westwood area of LA to promote public support for the California Pet Lover’s License Plate. The California Pet Lover’s License Plate provides a funding source for free and low-cost spay and neuter programs.
At 4 PM, Brown appears at the Milken Institute 2012 Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel California’s attraction to out of state venture capital and other investing in innovation-oriented businesses.
The California state budget looks like it’s running about $3 billion below projections. But of course there’s no need for those cuts that Brown has been pushing since January.
Maybe Facebook’s IPO in mid-May will save the day. But that’s a one-time windfall.
** SEALED UP, BUT NOT SEALED OVER: THE OSAMA BIN LADEN RAID AT 1.It’s a year since the daring Navy SEAL raid that took down Osama bin Laden. (The Al Qaeda leader was killed around 1 a.m. on May 2 in Pakistan, but it was mid-day to early afternoon on May 1 in the U.S.)
It was a triumph of American arms, satisfying retribution for al Qaeda’s attacks on New York and Washington, and a major blow to the global jihadist network. But it points up the many mistakes we’ve made and continue to make in the wake of 9/11, and reminds that even the surgical use of military force provides only part of a solution. …
** BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE? JERRY BROWN BRINGS AN INCOMPLETE STORY.Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington for a round of meetings and appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table, along with General David Petraeus, the Iraq War and Afghan War commander-turned-CIA director, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Oscar-winning actress Reese Witherspoon.
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this particular incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this is his second trip of the year to Washington. He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference. … From my April 28th essay.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY). … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $106 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $8 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
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