In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama urges Congress to pass the Buffett Rule — named for famed investor Warren Buffett, which asks those who make more than $1 million a year to pay at least the same percentage of their income in taxes as middle class families — as a principle of fairness.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: “STUDIO 30.”
** FIRST WEEK: A RAGGED START, OBAMA’S BIGGER PROBLEMS.It was an interesting first week in the general election campaign. After Rick Santorum’s sudden withdrawal essentially handed the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, on the 100th anniversary of Titanic setting sail on its fateful voyage, President Barack Obama had a mostly good week. But the big flap over foolhardy comments by a Democratic lobbyist on a cable chat show demonstrated alarmingly, again, how debate can be derailed by trivial pursuits even in the face of far more consequential issues. And though the domestic dynamics of the campaign — economic fairness and women’s rights — mostly favored Obama, geopolitical crises that could seriously damage Obama’s presidency loomed very large.
While the conventional US media was happy to spend a day focusing on a ping pong go-round over cable chat comments disparaging Ann Romney by a longtime record industry lobbyist and LGBT advocate who isn’t part of the Obama campaign, Obama has some real strengths to play with and real problems to deal with.
First the good news for Obama.
Romney, trying to flip Democratic rhetoric about a conservative “war on women” based on his primary stances, claimed in an interview with friendly Fox News that 92% of jobs lost during the Obama Adminstration were held by women and that Obama was responsible. That’s a big distortion.
Then, on a conference call, Romney aides couldn’t say if Romney backs a fair pay law for women. Considering that women are a huge problem for Romney, who claimed to be the inevitable nominee from the start, you’d think they would have this stuff down. The campaign later announced that Romney does back the law.
Polling showed also that Romney still has to win over young right-wingers, especially in the Midwest, where he already has a big problem with independents. Which points up the pretzel logic challenges facing Mitt Romney. He must move right and left at the same time.
Meanwhile, Gallup showed Romney near a record low of party support for a presumptive nominee. Only Democrat George McGovern had a lower level of support in his own party, back in 1972 as he moved toward his historic shellacking at the hands of Richard Nixon.
Finally, two big pluses for Obama on economic fairness and the economy in general. There is a huge 63-37 edge in the new Gallup Poll for the Buffett Rule, which Romney, no traitor to his class he, absolutely hates. And a new Gallup Poll survey of several measures of economic activity shows upward indicators.
These are good signs for Obama, who played to them throughout the week in his messaging, and fundamental problems for Romney, who has pitched his background as a, er, leveraged buyout specialist as the key to reviving the economy.
Now the bad news, and it’s not about a media culture which focuses on culture war ping pong, though that’s an ongoing problem for Obama. …
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE WEEK AHEAD. President Barack Obama is in Cartagena, Colombia and Washington, DC.
Obama’s weekend is taken up with the Summit of the Americas, where there is much talk of the efficacy, or lack of same, of the anti-drug war.
There is also talk about a big Secret Service scandal, involving 12 agents who’ve been recalled to Washington amidst rumored charges of heavy drinking and prostitution. This may be the biggest scandal in the history of the Service, which of course engages in major advance planning and protection activities for the president and other top officials.
I’ve worked a lot with the Secret Service. They generally do a great job. Though they are hardly perfect, this story surprises me.
On Saturday, Obama participates in the CEO Summit of the Americas at the Hilton Hotel in Cartagena, Colombia. In the afternoon, he attend an arrival ceremony at the Julio César Turbay Ayala Convention Center.
Later in the afternoon, Obama will attend the Plenary Session of the Summit of the Americas at the Julio César Turbay Ayala Convention Center.
In the evening, Obama will attend a leaders’ dinner at Casa de Huéspedes.
On Sunday morning, Obma will participate in an official leaders’ photo at the Julio César Turbay Ayala Convention Center.
Later on Sunday morning, Obama will participate in a leaders’ retreat at the Julio César Turbay Ayala Convention Center.
In the afternoon, Obama will hold a multi-lateral meeting with Caribbean leaders at the Julio César Turbay Ayala Convention Center.
Later in the afternoon, Obama will attend a bilateral meeting with President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia at Casa de Huéspedes. Not to be confused with President Matt Santos of West Wing fame, naturally.
Following that, he will attend a working lunch with President Santos at Casa de Huéspedes.
Afterwards, Obama will hold a joint press conference with President Santos at the Casa de Huéspedes.
In the evening, Obama will tour San Pedro Claver Church.
Following the tour, Obama will participate in a cultural event with President Santos at the Plaza de San Pedro.
Obama will then depart Colombia on Air Force One en route Washington, DC.
At 8:35 PM Pacific on Sunday, Obama lands at Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 8:50 PM Pacific on Sunday, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
Expectations for the weekend negotiations in Istanbul over Iran’s nuclear program were low. Those expectations appear to have been met.
Obama, after some rest on Monday, has a pretty full week of appealing to voters who like sports and to voters concerned about the economy, especially in Midwestern battleground states.
Naturally, Obama’s public schedule does not reflect his crisis management activities behind the scenes.
On Monday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Tuesday, Obama will welcome Tony Stewart and the 2011 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers to the White House to honor Stewart’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship. Obama will aso recognize efforts by Stewart and NASCAR to give back to the community.
On Wednesday, Obama will travel to the Cleveland, Ohio, area to deliver remarks at an event on the economy. Later, he will travel to Michigan to attend campaign events. He returns to the White House in the evening.
On Thursday, Obama will welcome the national college football champion Alabama Crimson Tide to the White House. This is Alabama’s 14th national championship.
I think that Obama will be congratulating the University of Southern California Trojans next year.
On Friday, Obama will welcome the Wounded Warrior Project’s Soldier Ride to the White House. This is becoming an annual event.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive. … From my April 10th essay.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down. … From my April 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $102.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney spoke this morning at the National Rifle Association convention today where he warned that President Barack Obama wants to reshape the U.S. Supreme Court to weaken gun owners’ rights.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … A RAGGED START, BIGGER PROBLEMS.
FRIDAY FUNHOUSE.
Interesting times on this Friday the 13th.
While the conventional US media was happy to spend a day focusing on a ping pong go-round over the cable chat comments of a Democratic lobbyist and lesbian rights advocate who isn’t part of the Obama campaign, President Barack Obama has some real problems to deal with as he heads to Colombia for this weekend’s Summit of the Americas. And they have little to do with the summit, though Venezuela plays into it with its backing for Iran.
Whether somebody on a talk show pops off about Ann Romney’s insufficient feminism or not doesn’t have much to do with Mitt Romney’s real problems with women voters, which are vast and substantial. But it does interrupt the flow of the week for Obama, thanks to the media culture, a week which was going very well for him otherwise.
But for geopolitical crises that may yet derail his presidency.
North Korea’s long-range missile test, cast in the guise of a weather satellite launch, failed. Which is good for Obama in that it was an implicit rebuke of his food deal with the Hermit King. But it may be bad in that North Korea’s young new leader probably feels compelled to go ahead with a nuclear test blast.
North Korea is already a nuclear power, and it’s simply a matter of containing their somewhat crude capabilities. Which is why the US has more troops on South Korea than there are in the entire Canadian Army.
While North Korea is a longstanding major irritant, but nothing more, it can be an embarrassment to Obama, perhaps a big one.
The crisis with Iran and Israel promises to be much more consequential.
While American media feverishly pick through the tweets of Hilary Rosen and Ann Romney, representatives of the permanent UN Security Council members — the US, UK, Russia, China, and France — and Germany have been gathering today in Istanbul for a Saturday session with Iran’s representatives. Israel promises that, if diplomacy and sanctions fail to halt Iran’s drive toward the ability to make a nuclear weapon, its military strikes are only months away.
Then there’s the ongoing crisis in Syria, where Assad regime forces are sort of honoring a ceasefire, but not really.
And Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to win not only the parliament, which has already happened, but also the presidency, which the group previously had agreed not to contest.
This is the real stuff that is problematic for Obama, not the usual hyper-partisan chatter, which this time around has seized on a foolhardy Democratic lobbyist popping off about Ann Romney on cable chat shows.
Meanwhile, California politics is bubbling.
The California High Speed Rail Authority board yesterday approved the revamped business plan for Phase One of the project in a unanimous vote. Legislative hearings are on tap in advance of a likely vote to approve the start of the project later this year, as planned by Governor Jerry Brown.
That meeting was in San Francisco. Much farther to the south, in San Diego, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, the rising Republican star who left the party to become an independent, as discussed at length in the piece linked below, is now in a dead heat for first place in the race for San Diego Mayor with hard right conservative Republican Councilman Carl DeMaio.
Fletcher had been tied for a distant third with San Diego District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis at 10% each.
Now it’s DeMaio 28%, Fletcher 26%, Democratic Congressman Bob Filner 20% (where he was before), and Dumanis 13%.
Fletcher’s move has worked. If he can make it to the run-off after the election in June, as the new poll suggests, his moderation may enable him to pick up Filner’s votes and become the next mayor.
North Korea admitted its failed missile and satellite launch, which received global condemnation. The Hermit Kingdom’s move may leave the Obama Administration’s strategy toward it in tatters.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Florida, and en route to Cartagena, Colombia.
Obama received the intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then went to Joint Base Andrews where he boarded Air Force One and flew to Tampa, Florida.
At 9:40 AM Pacific, Obama toured the Port of Tampa.
He then delivered remarks highlighting the benefits of trade with Latin America for the Tampa Bay region and many other communities in the US before heading to Colombia for the Summit of the Americas.
At 2:45 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Cartagena, Colombia.
There he will participate in this weekend’s Summit of the Americas bringing together national leaders from North and South America to discuss issues of mutual concern and some disagreement.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown appeared for 45 minutes this morning on the Ronn Owens radio talk show on KGO San Francisco.
He was candid, saying it is time for Democratic legislators to “man up” and move forward on another round of state budget cuts.
He said that the state’s budget deficit is higher than the $9 billion he estimated in January, due to lower than anticipated revenues and legislative inaction on budget cuts, and that wishing for more revenue will not make it happen.
Brown also today appointed Mark Cowin to continue as the director of the critical Department of Water Resources, a post to which he was first appointed by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Corwin has worked in various posts at the state water agency for just over 30 years.
In other notable personnel stuff, Democratic consultant Roger Salazar — who did a good job with the main independent expenditure committee supporting Brown’s election in 2010 — has moved from the Acosta/Salazar firm he co-founded to become a managing director of Mercury Public Affairs.
The former Gray Davis campaign press secretary, a veteran of the Al Gore and John Edwards presidential campaigns, joins the firm’s California partners, former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who is spearheading an emerging Latino public affairs specialty, and Adam Mendelsohn, a longtime advisor to former Governor Schwarzenegger.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive. … From my April 10th essay.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down. … From my April 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
North Korea went ahead early Friday, local time, with its ballyhooed long-range missile launch, which it said was simply for purposes of launching a communication satellite for weather forecasts. But the missile broke apart not far down-range, according to the Pentagon.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … ROMNEY’S START, OBAMA’S BIGGER PROBLEMS.
** QUICK HITS.North Korea’s missile launch late today points up the reality that President Barack Obama has much bigger problems than a foolhardy Democratic consultant popping off about Ann Romney on cable chat shows. Fortunately, the missile launch appears to have failed. It may have been about consolidating the position of the new leader of the Hermit Kingdom, Kim Jong-un, who also just picked up the title of “First Secretary,” as much as anything else. Still, it was a big reminder of how uncontrollable much more consequential events can be. … The California High Speed Rail Authority board today approved the revamped business plan for Phase One of the project in a unanimous vote. … Governor Jerry Brown goes on the Ronn Owen show tomorrow morning on KGO radio in San Francisco to talk about his big issues. … You can listen at 9 AM Pacific here.
** NEW POLL: AS ROMNEY PULLS OUT HIS ETCH-A-SKETCH FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION, HE STILL MUST WIN OVER YOUNG RIGHT-WINGERS. A new Gallup Poll survey points up the pretzel logic challenges facing Mitt Romney.
He must move right and left at the same time.
“As Mitt Romney pivots his campaign to the general election, he faces the challenge of building enthusiasm and, hence, turnout among certain key groups of Republicans among whom he has done less well during the primary contests so far. These include Midwestern, young, highly religious, and conservative Republicans.” …
The agreed on ceasefire in Syria is at last underway, but there are already reports of widespread violations. The Assad regime has refused to pull back its forces.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HOW DID THE SUDDEN FIRST WEEK OF THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN TURN OUT?
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He received the intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then did regional TV interviews in the Diplomatic Room.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
A big kerfuffle in the enclosed echo chamber world of cable news politics came and went while I wasn’t paying any attention last night and this morning.
Democratic consultant Hillary Rosen, whom I’m only vaguely aware of but is evidently a lesbian feminist, criticized Ann Romney as a defender of husband’s campaign on women’s concerns saying “she’s never worked a day in her life.”
Which is true in a sense, in the sense that she married Romney right out of school and quickly became a stay at home mom and wife of a rich man. She certainly has very little in common with most Americans, especially women with any economic pressures.
But it’s not wise to criticize stay-at-home moms, even very rich ones, because, well, why bother? It’s simply not worth the trouble to indulge feminist talking points about appropriate choices for women.
There’s certainly a more intelligent way to put it than Rosen chose.
Sadly, I missed virtually all of it, but it seems to have been quite the controversy for the better part of a day, as breathlessly recounted on the Romney-boosting Politico. If you include night as part of a day, that is.
But some Republicans and their media cheerleaders are preening about Rosen’s faux pas, for having derailed Romney’s political problems with women. Well, no. I don’t think most people paid any more attention to the flap than I did, and the problems are much more fundamental than some Democrat spouting off on cable noise.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
The state legislature is holding various hearings this week on his budget proposal and on his public pension reform proposal.
No action has taken place on either yet, and there are repeated signs that Democratic legislators want to hold off on Brown’s budget cuts at least until the “May revise” of his budget, at which time new numbers are applied to the situation.
But the situation, as state Controller John Chiang makes amply clear, is that revenues are running a few points below projections, as I have mentioned many times before.
The increasingly inexplicable initiative promoter, heiress Molly Munger, has just given another $2 million to her doomed income tax hike for all initiative. I believe I called this antic super-rich behavior last weekend. This will keep me looking for diplomatic adjectives for a while.
Former Governor Gray Davis is in Silicon Valley this afternoon for the groundbreaking for a major expansion of the Bay Area Rapid Transit District’s services for which he and his administration advocated from the beginning.
Senator Dianne Feinstein and former San Jose Mayor Ron Gonzales are among those on hand for the start of this long-in-the-works project, the biggest public works project in Silicon Valley history.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive. …
Mad Men, the great American novel for television that doubles as a master class in American studies — advertising, arguably the quintessential American industry for its stoking of desire and aspiration, providing a perfect milieu — incorporates all this into the lives of our beloved and not infrequently benighted characters. … From my April 10th essay.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down.
It’s not a surprise. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, lived into his 90s and his idea of exercise, in contrast to his very fit son, was splashing around in his pool. Brown’s mother, the ever sharp Bernice Brown, also lived into her 90s. And one of the most amusing moments at Brown’s third inaugural last year — in addition to his pointedly intoning that he was of “sound mind” in taking the oath of office to run the chronically troubled Golden State — was when he made a point of introducing his 99-year old aunt. Some ambitious faces in the front rows fell at that. … From my April 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A little movie called The Avengers premiered last night in Los Angeles. The film opens wide on May 4th.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Mitt Romney, suddenly thrust into the general election campaign he’s been trying to say had already begun, today said the President Barack Obama “isn’t a bad guy. But what he knows is wrong.”
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HOW DID THE SUDDEN FIRST WEEK OF THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN TURN OUT?
** QUICK HITS. For a campaign that has been claiming the mantle of presumptive Republican presidential nominee for months, Mitt Romney’s got off to a stumbling start today on the first full day of the general election campaign with the presumptive nomination in hand. … Romney, trying to flip Democratic rhetoric about a conservative “war on women” based on a number of social issues, claimed in an interview today with friendly Fox News that 92% of jobs lost during the Obama Adminstration were held by women. That’s way off. … Then, on a conference call to do damage control over the gaffe, Romney aides couldn’t say if Romney backs a fair pay law for women. … Considering that women are a huge problem for Romney, you’d think they would have this stuff down. … The campaign later announced that Romney does back the law. … It doesn’t get easier for Romney this week. Thursday is the sixth anniversary of Romney’s Massachusetts health care law that was a model for “Obamacare.” Friday he addresses the National Rifle Association convention, where he gets to play pretzel over his past backing of gun control laws he no longer backs.
** NEW SURVEY: ECONOMIC INDICATORS ARE UP. A new Gallup Poll survey of several measures of economic activity shows upward indicators.
These are good signs for President Barack Obama as the general election campaign gets underway, and a problem for Mitt Romney, who has pitched his background as a leveraged buyout specialist as the key to reviving the economy.
Gallup’s key U.S. economic indicators tell a consistent story of improving economic and behavioral conditions. Americans’ self-reported employment status, personal spending, and workplace hiring trends were all better in March than in February, and were improved over March 2011, although still below pre-recession levels. In addition, Americans’ ratings of the U.S. economy were at a four-year high. However, that was prior to last week’s disappointing Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report and Wall Street’s latest downturn. Those events could spark another reversal like so many others that have occurred since 2009, but thus far, Gallup indicators suggest otherwise. …
All of Gallup’s economic indicators — except economic confidence, which receded slightly — improved further in the first week of April, based on interviewing ending April 8. Gallup Daily tracking in the coming days will reveal whether consumers’ confidence in the economy and willingness to spend have been rattled by the more recent economic news. In the meantime, it is clear that prior to now, Gallup’s economic metrics have all been pointing in a positive direction. …
President Barack Obama, in an early morning appearance at the White House, pressed his pitch for the so-called Buffett Rule, named for famed investor Warren Buffett, who originated the idea. Obama and Buffett argue that the wealthy should not pay taxes at a lower rate than middle-class wage-earners.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HOW DID THE SUDDEN FIRST WEEK OF THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN TURN OUT?
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He then received the intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama delivered a statement on the Buffett Rule in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building Room. 430
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
At 2:15 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
Obama moved quickly today to draw the contrast with likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney, again invoking the Buffett Rule to distinguish himself from the first major presidential candidate with a Swiss bank account.
Romney had a pretty easy time against under-funded and deeply flawed Republican primary candidates and still got his hat handed to him much of the time.
He’s in a whole different ball game now.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder announced Wednesday that the Justice Department has filed suit against Apple and five book publishing companies, alleging that they conspired to set prices on ebooks.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
The state legislature is holding various hearings this week on his budget proposal and on his public pension reform proposal.
No action has taken place on either yet, and there are repeated signs that Democratic legislators want to hold off on Brown’s budget cuts at least until the “May revise” of his budget, at which time new numbers are applied to the situation.
But the situation, as state Controller John Chiang makes amply clear, is that revenues are running a few points below projections, as I have mentioned many times before.
In other action, Senator Dianne Feinstein made one of her rather rare appearances in her re-election campaign yesterday, praising Brown’s revamped high-speed rail plan.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive. …
Mad Men, the great American novel for television that doubles as a master class in American studies — advertising, arguably the quintessential American industry for its stoking of desire and aspiration, providing a perfect milieu — incorporates all this into the lives of our beloved and not infrequently benighted characters. … From my April 10th essay.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down.
It’s not a surprise. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, lived into his 90s and his idea of exercise, in contrast to his very fit son, was splashing around in his pool. Brown’s mother, the ever sharp Bernice Brown, also lived into her 90s. And one of the most amusing moments at Brown’s third inaugural last year — in addition to his pointedly intoning that he was of “sound mind” in taking the oath of office to run the chronically troubled Golden State — was when he made a point of introducing his 99-year old aunt. Some ambitious faces in the front rows fell at that. … From my April 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Rick Santorum pulled a sudden move today. He ended his campaign for president, likely clearing the way for Mitt Romney to be the Republican nominee.
ON THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BEGINNING OF THE TITANIC’S MAIDEN VOYAGE, THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN SUDDENLY BEGINS FOR MITT ROMNEY.
Just like that, on the 100th anniversary of the beginning of the the Titanic setting out from Southampton on its fateful maiden voyage, Rick Santorum started the general election campaign. He did it today by suddenly ending his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination at an appearance in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, another place redolent with history.
Santorum, as I wrote last week in the essay linked below, held the prospect of several major primary victories ahead in May, if only he could get through the next few weeks of negative chatter and Northeastern defeats. He also had rather dicey prospects in his home state Pennsylvania primary and, as it happened, a very sick 3-year old daughter who just got out of her latest stint in the hospital. He could win several more primaries, but faced long odds for the nomination, with party elites eager for the fighting to end to salvage a shot at Obama.
After months of demolition derby primaries and caucuses, Romney was a clear frontrunner. With no one else eagerly stepping forward to try to take on President Barack Obama, the slant of the table was clearly in the ex-Massachusetts governor’s direction.
So now Romney is what he’s been claiming to be all these many months, the all but inevitable nominee of the Republican Party.
He’s pretty damaged goods. But I expect the race to get closer, before it opens up again.
Some Republican sources, including at least one who told me just before Easter weekend that Santorum would opt to end his campaign, think that Romney is a better general election candidate than a primary candidate.
Considering that he has now won the primaries, I think that would be difficult.
What it took for Romney to win, going even more conservative in 2012 than he did as the hard right conservative choice in the 2008 primaries, makes it hard for him to win the independent swing voters he needs to become president.
The fact that his campaign spokesman mused so candidly about the “Etch A Sketch” nature of the candidacy; i.e., shifting his political identity yet again for the general election, doesn’t make it any easier for Romney to pull off his patented chameleon act.
And one thing he can never shake is what is evidently his core identity as an advocate of anything-goes finance capitalism. He made that lastingly clear in January, when he cast as anti-American any criticism of Wall Street ways, even those made by his own chief strategist in the 2010 California governor’s race, as I wrote at the time.
Much can still go wrong for Obama, but it will take something very big for him to lose.
The economic recovery failing would be one thing. The economy is still rather shaky, though much improved. And people are unhappy about high gasoline prices, though in some ways resigned while in others Obama is covering himself by criticizing the oil companies who are likely to fund Romney super PAC activities.
A massive geopolitical crisis would be another game change.
Iran has finally decided to go ahead with the new round of nuclear negotiations with the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany at the end of the week, as originally planned in Istanbul. But will much come of it, and in time to forestall Israeli air strikes?
The UN-brokered peace deal for the linked Syrian crisis is falling apart.
Afghanistan is a huge mess, though the US and Afghan governments have reached agreement on Afghan oversight of the highly controversial night raids.
North Korea is apparently reneging on its agreement to forego missile tests and nuclear testing.
It’s not a copacetic time.
But would America turn to Mitt Romney, who promises an even more hard-boiled version of the old Bush/Cheney policies?
Only if Obama seems incompetent.
Naturally, there will be tons of advertising designed to show just that, with most of it coming from super PACs, principally the Karl Rove-led Crossroads operation. Not that Rove will be escaping his identity as the chief Bush/Cheney strategist.
The template for a potential Romney victory is already laid out by how he won his primary victories. Massive negative advertising from super PACs taking unlimited contributions under the new Citizens United decision.
It’s barely worked for him in the Republican contest, with huge spending advantages over his opponents. Those advantages don’t apply against Obama, whose forces have been preparing to run against Romney all along.
(Though there were some moments when Chicago, as the Obama campaign high command is called, was more concerned with Santorum and his more down to earth appeal.)
But the unlimited spending allowed by the split Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United case may well blunt what should be the incumbent president’s financial advantage. So if the world goes arse over tea kettle, all bets may be off.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive.
Incidentally, you can see all my Mad Men pieces, going back to 2009, here in The Mad Men File.
It’s mid-July 1966. The worst things are happening elsewhere, but they’re getting closer. Richard Speck raped and murdered eight student nurses in Chicago, and race riots have cropped up in the Windy City as well. Much of the Mad Men crew is neurotically ogling death pictures from Chicago, chattering uneasily about the salacious brutality of the mass murder and worrying about racial unrest.
Much closer to home, there’ve been violent incidents between blacks and Puerto Ricans and blacks and police in the Bedford-Stuyvesant district, where later in the year Senator Robert F. Kennedy will join with liberal Republican Mayor John Lindsay and liberal Republican Senator Jacob Javits to launch a new public/private partnership to deal with community problems.
The Vietnam War is ramping up. And drugs as an answer to unease and unhappiness are becoming widespread, across the generations.
Mad Men, the great American novel for television that doubles as a master class in American studies — advertising, arguably the quintessential American industry for its stoking of desire and aspiration, providing a perfect milieu — incorporates all this into the lives of our beloved and not infrequently benighted characters.
Let’s deal first with the dream sequences, something I hardly ever like. Don Draper and his new wife Megan Calvet Draper have the first Mystery Date, running into Andrea Plotdevice, an old sex partner of Don’s who flirts inappropriately with the now abashed admeister before grasping that the beautiful young woman in the elevator with them is his wife. After she departs, Don and Megan go through their pattern of bickering and then making up, which of course will never get old, either for them or for us.
Andrea Plotdevice is played by Madchen Amick, one of the glamour girls of Twin Peaks, David Lynch’s great cult fave series of two decades ago which, unlike Mad Men, could not sustain its premise. (It was sort of the Lost of its day, but got to the ultimate disappointment much faster.)
Andrea turns up not once but twice after, both times appearing at Don and Megan’s fabulous Manhattan apartment, to which Draper, sick as a dog and looking it, has repaired to recuperate. Don, initially resistant to Andrea’s entreaties for sex, gives in for a sweaty performance. Then, angered by her taunting admonition that they’ll do it again because he is sick and loves it, he murders her and pushes her body under the bed.
These were clearly dream sequences. Otherwise, Mad Men was suddenly becoming a very different sort of show.
What do the dream sequences mean? Well, when Bobby Ewing came out of the shower, we learned … Wait, that’s not it. Ain’t no oil derricks on this show. …
The UN-brokered peace plan in Syria appears to have failed, with Assad regime forces continuing their assault on protesters even after the deadline has passed. Syria’s foreign minister is in Moscow for consultations with the regime’s Russian allies, who are suffering embarrassment as the process drags on.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Florida.
Obama has received the intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then flew on Air Force One to West Palm Beach, Florida.
At 11:55 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the economy at Florida Atlantic University.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the Westin Diplomat Hotel in Hollywood, Florida.
On Monday morning, the Obama hosted the 2012 White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House, featuring live music, sports courts, cooking stations, storytelling and, of course, Easter egg rolling. In the afternoon, Obama hosted President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil for mini-summit meetings at the White House in advance of this coming weekend’s Summit of the Americas
On Tuesday, Obama will travel to Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton where he will make the case for the Buffet Rule. He will also appear at fundraisers before returning to Washington.
On Wednesday and Thursday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Friday, Obama will travel to Cartagena, Colombia, to attend the Summit of the Americas. He will return to Washington on Sunday.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down.
It’s not a surprise. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, lived into his 90s and his idea of exercise, in contrast to his very fit son, was splashing around in his pool. Brown’s mother, the ever sharp Bernice Brown, also lived into her 90s. And one of the most amusing moments at Brown’s third inaugural last year — in addition to his pointedly intoning that he was of “sound mind” in taking the oath of office to run the chronically troubled Golden State — was when he made a point of introducing his 99-year old aunt. Some ambitious faces in the front rows fell at that. … From my April 7th essay.
** IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE,” AGAIN?Is Mitt Romney “inevitable,” again? For the Republican presidential nomination, that is, as I don’t believe he can beat Barack Obama. Or is he merely back in command of the race? … From my April 5th column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Today is the 100th anniversary of the RMS Titanic setting sail from Southampton, England on its fateful maiden voyage. Dubbed “the ship of dreams,” Titanic represented a civilization which believed it was reaching a zenith of technological sophistication and power. The trailer, of course, is to James Cameron’s new 3-D version of his classic film Titanic.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $101 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $67 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $13 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** JERRY BROWN HITS 74.California’s youngest governor since it was barely a state back in the 19th century turned 74 on Saturday. Jerry Brown, back for a third term after his fascinating two terms as governor in the 1970s and ’80s is now California’s oldest governor, with little sign of slowing down.
It’s not a surprise. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, lived into his 90s and his idea of exercise, in contrast to his very fit son, was splashing around in his pool. Brown’s mother, the ever sharp Bernice Brown, also lived into her 90s. And one of the most amusing moments at Brown’s third inaugural last year — in addition to his pointedly intoning that he was of “sound mind” in taking the oath of office to run the chronically troubled Golden State — was when he made a point of introducing his 99-year old aunt. Some ambitious faces in the front rows fell at that.
Typically, he doesn’t have a big party scheduled. Brown has never been one to commemorate his birthday. But it’s certainly a time for some contemplation, which in any event is deeply ingrained in the former Jesuit seminarian and Zen expert.
Before he made the final decision to be governor again, Brown, who had won a landslide election as California attorney general in 2006 after serving two terms as mayor of gritty Oakland, considered what it would mean for his life. He could continue in an office he enjoyed, to which he could win an easy re-election, going on leisurely weekend hikes in the Sierra Nevada mountains with his very bright and lively wife, Anne Gust Brown. Or he could jump back into an office and a process, never easy, which had only gotten crazier since his not especially sedate first governorship.
He chose the latter, of course, and after crushing billionaire Meg Whitman and the biggest spending non-presidential campaign in American history, found that the process was more dysfunctional than he had hoped. But, though his plan to quickly solve the state’s chronic budget crisis with big budget cuts and tax extensions came up short going on a year ago — with Brown and Democrats delivering the big cuts but Republicans refusing to even allow a public vote on the revenues — he’s making progress with his revamped plans. …
** IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE,” AGAIN?Is Mitt Romney “inevitable,” again? For the Republican presidential nomination, that is, as I don’t believe he can beat Barack Obama. Or is he merely back in command of the race? … From my April 5th column.
** MAD MEN: WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON, ANYWAY?The roar of generational change got ever louder in this week’s Mad Men, so much so that Roger Sterling plaintively wondered when things will go back to normal. That would be “Never,” Roger. At least for you. As always, there be spoilers ahead.
Meanwhile … She’s baaack. It’s around the 4th of July, 1966, and the character so many love to hate, and whom many thought had slipped away from the storyline, Betty Draper Francis, has returned to the show in a big way. Literally. Well, not that big. But the svelte Grace Kelly lookalike has put on a lot of weight. (This is how creator Matthew Weiner deals with star January Jones’s real-life pregnancy, which arrived not long after she wrapped her co-starring role as wintry telepath Emma Frost in X-Men: First Class.) …
Now she’s married to a doting older man, Henry Francis, a top advisor to the liberal New York Republicans who once played so large a role in American politics. (And if that doesn’t date this show, nothing will.) … From my April 3rd essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Artist Thomas Kinkade once said that he had something in common with Walt Disney and Norman Rockwell: He wanted to make people happy. The self-described “Painter of Light,” one of the most popular artists in the country, though not among my favorites, died Friday at age 54 at his home in Los Gatos, outside San Francisco, of apparent natural causes.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $103.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama warned this morning that the U.S. job market will still face “ups and downs” despite news Friday that the economy added 120,000 jobs last month. Obama spoke Friday at a White House forum focused on the role of women in the economy.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN HITS 74.
FRIDAY FUNHOUSE.
This Good Friday may not be so good. Though it is relatively quiet, so that’s good for a change.
President Barack Obama and his Republican opponents, such as frontrunner Mitt Romney, are all a little nonplussed by today’s employment report. The unemployment rate dipped again, from 8.3% to 8.2%, but job growth in March was only 120,000, contrary to what was suggested by yesterday’s Gallup survey and other forecasts.
It’s continued growth, but rather anemic, making it hard to ballyhoo and hard to talk down.
The news comes a day after Obama was pleased to learn that unemployment filings last week hit another four-year low.
Obama is looking good, especially in contrast to Romney and the other Republicans, but a disaster could throw him off-stride.
Speaking of which …
The site for a new round of nuclear talks with Iran, set to begin April 13th, is still up in the air. A leading Iranian politician yesterday dismissed Istanbul, discussed by the Iranian and Turkish heads of government just last week, as the venue.
And Iranian leaders have turned down Vienna and other European capitals pushed by European Union foreign minister Catherine Ashton.
Baghdad has been floated repeatedly by the Iranian side, ironic in that the Iraqi capital was strictly off-limits for Iran before the US invasion of 2003.
Since the meet is supposed to begin a week from today, this is not a good sign at all.
Israeli sources, who are very skeptical about diplomacy and even sanctions regarding the Iranian nuclear program, are not surprised. But are they ready to strike?
With a looming UN-brokered ceasefire set to begin on April 12th, Assad regime forces are “raining fire” on their domestic opponents, as one Pentagon source puts it.
Syria is closely aligned with Iran, which will host former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, who brokered the latest peace deal, next Wednesday in Tehran.
Notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, famously dubbed “The Merchant of Death,” has been sentenced to 25 years in prison by a New York court for conspiracy to murder US citizens, to the immense displeasure of Moscow, which threatens an end to the re-set in US/Russia relations.
Syria is also a longtime ally of Russia, placing the US sideways on another big issue with its erstwhile new ally. As does yesterday’s sentencing of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, arrested a few years back by US DEA agents in Thailand after arranging to smuggle arms to anti-US guerrilla forces in Colombia.
Moscow wants the former Soviet colonel back. Bout has reportedly dealt with a wide array of factions around the world for years, and has a vast storehouse of information.
Meanwhile, it’s a quiet time in California politics, with Governor Jerry Brown about to turn 74 on Saturday, his elections plans seeming on course.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then delivered remarks at the White House Forum on Women and the Economy in the South Court Auditorium.
At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama mark the beginning of Passover with a White House Seder in the Old Family Dining Room.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
** IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE,” AGAIN?Is Mitt Romney “inevitable,” again? For the Republican presidential nomination, that is, as I don’t believe he can beat Barack Obama. Or is he merely back in command of the race? … From my April 5th column.
** MAD MEN: WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON, ANYWAY?The roar of generational change got ever louder in this week’s Mad Men, so much so that Roger Sterling plaintively wondered when things will go back to normal. That would be “Never,” Roger. At least for you. As always, there be spoilers ahead.
Meanwhile … She’s baaack. It’s around the 4th of July, 1966, and the character so many love to hate, and whom many thought had slipped away from the storyline, Betty Draper Francis, has returned to the show in a big way. Literally. Well, not that big. But the svelte Grace Kelly lookalike has put on a lot of weight. (This is how creator Matthew Weiner deals with star January Jones’s real-life pregnancy, which arrived not long after she wrapped her co-starring role as wintry telepath Emma Frost in X-Men: First Class.) …
Now she’s married to a doting older man, Henry Francis, a top advisor to the liberal New York Republicans who once played so large a role in American politics. (And if that doesn’t date this show, nothing will.) … From my April 3rd essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama signed a bill today that he says will help companies expand by going public and hiring more workers. For start-ups and small businesses, he said the legislation is a potential, um, “game-changer.” Actually, labor isn’t so happy with the bill, which makes it easier for private companies to sell stock to the public, streamlining some regulations from the dot-com days.
** QUICK HITS. Controversial lefty TV host Keith Olbermann filed a big lawsuit today in Los Angeles against Current TV, headed by former Vice President Al Gore and investor Joel Hyatt, for alleged wrongful termination. This was so hard to see coming. … After leaving MSNBC abruptly, Olbermann was replaced by former West Wing producer Lawrence O’Donnell. … The site for a new round of nuclear talks with Iran, set to being April 13th, is still up in the air. A leading Iranian politician today dismissed Istanbul, discussed by the Iranian and Turkish heads of government just last week, as the venue. And Iranian leaders have turned down Vienna and other European capitals. Baghdad has been floated by the Iranian side, ironic in that the Iraqi capital was strictly off-limits for Iran before the US invasion of 2003.
** IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE,” AGAIN?Is Mitt Romney “inevitable,” again? For the Republican presidential nomination, that is, as I don’t believe he can beat Barack Obama. Or is he merely back in command of the race?
On the strength of a stunning four to one spending advantage, Romney swept three primaries Tuesday night, winning a fairly close race against Rick Santorum in Wisconsin and scoring blow-out wins in Maryland and the District of Columbia. The chattering classes, embarrassed by erroneously calling Romney the nominee a couple of times before, are largely united again on Romney’s behalf. Any way you count it, and there is more than one way, he’s well ahead in delegates, fundraising, and organization. And yet …
Santorum, unlike Newt Gingrich (who also blew not one but two opportunities to take and hold command of the race, which is another story entirely), has managed to hold up under withering and massive fire from Romney and his super PAC. And in May, Santorum has a good chance to win a number of key states: Texas, West Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky, with a shot in Indiana.
But to get to the greener pastures of May, he first has to surmount nearly three weeks of media chatter, with no primaries, following his triple loss on Tuesday night. Then he has to survive what looks like a mostly bad day on April 24th, when I believe he will lose to Romney in the Northeastern primaries of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware.
The big trick for Santorum, aside from getting through the chatter, on April 24th is making sure that he wins his home state Pennsylvania. Recent polls have shown Romney to be in striking distance there.
In fact, a brand new poll, from Public Policy Polling, shows Romney moving into a slight lead.
If Santorum gets into May, he can find some fresh traction.
The thing about this race is that victories don’t tend to generate much momentum. And presidential nomination contests regularly feature “buyer’s remorse.”
Another thing is that Romney and his associates are prone to very telling screw-ups, some of which are deliberate. …
On the other hand, as problematic as Romney is — and I am sure that, barring cataclysmic disaster, Barack Obama will defeat him if he is the GOP nominee — Santorum isn’t any better.
Santorum was screwed by the media misreporting the first-in-the-nation contest of Iowa, where he actually won very narrowly but endured two weeks of reports that Romney had won. I warned at the time that there was a good chance Santorum had actually finished first. Had Iowa been properly reported, and most of the media not so eager to spin up Romney’s “historic Iowa/New Hampshire sweep” that never actually happened, things may well have gone very differently. But they did not. As a general election candidate, he is far too conservative.
And if Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul — who never came close to living up to the media hype about his supposed caucus strength, even with very low turn-outs that could have been dominated by his zealous supporters — aren’t very credible presidents, who is?
The Republicans don’t have very eager options. It’s not at all easy to run for president in a campaign designed to win. Obama is looking better, the economy, while anemic, has improved, and the Obama/Democratic machine is powerful and loaded for bear.
And the Republicans, frankly, don’t have very good options. …
** NEW SURVEY: HIRING JUMPED IN MARCH. A new Gallup Poll survey has some more good, if guarded, news on the economy.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index has reached a high not seen since 2008, when many still thought we were not in recession. (Though we actually were.)
The better news is that the improvement is sharp. The bad news is that the West still lags other parts of the country.
In politics, it’s generally the direction of things that is most important, especially if you were not responsible for the initial crisis.
U.S. job market conditions in March reached their best level since August 2008, with Gallup’s Job Creation Index now at +18, up from +14 in February. This four-percentage-point increase is the largest one-month jump in the index that Gallup has recorded since instituting the measure in 2008. …
The March Job Creation Index reflects 35% of U.S. adult workers saying their employers are hiring and expanding the size of their workforces, and 17% saying their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of the workforces. While the percentage letting go matches what Gallup found in January, the percentage hiring is at a 42-month high, last seen in September 2008. …
All four regions of the country in March posted their best Job Creation Index scores since at least the fall of 2008, with each showing gains in just the past month. At +21, the Midwest continues to have the most positive jobs picture, based on relatively strong hiring (+36) coupled with relatively low layoffs or firing (-15).
The South does not trail by much, with a +19 overall index score. The East and West lag behind at +16 and +15, respectively, mainly because of lower hiring.
Syrian troops launched a fierce assault on a Damascus suburb Thursday, days ahead of a deadline for a UN-brokered cease-fire, with activists describing it as one of the most violent attacks around the capital since the year-old uprising began. Syria is closely aligned with Iran, whose nuclear crisis continues to bubble.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE,” AGAIN?
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then had lunch with Vice President Joe Biden in the Private Dining Room.
At 11:10 AM Pacific, Obama signs the Jumpstart our Business Startups (JOBS) Act in the Rose Garden.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama hosta a screening of To Kill A Mockingbird in the Family Movie Theater.
At 2:35 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel.
At 5:10 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel.
Obama got some very good news this morning, with new unemployment filings reaching yet another four-year low.
Meanwhile, the Republicans who would be president race on, with Mitt Romney appearing to consolidate his frontrunner role. The next primaries aren’t until April 24th, and will take place in territory largely very favorable to Romney.
The campaign moves in May to states more receptive to Rick Santorum, however.
As expected, new polling shows Romney with a big lead in New York. But a new poll also shows him taking a slim lead over Santorum in the ex-senator’s home state of Pennsylvania.
Santorum is huddling today in Virginia with many of his far right backers, but has said repeatedly he has no intention of getting out of the race with greener pastures beckoning next month. Santorum is off the campaign trail for four days around Easter, which is a good idea for him since he’s seemed tired of late.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
The alleged shooter in Monday’s mass slaying at Oikos University, a new Korean Christian college in Oakland, California, appeared briefly in court on Wednesday. The 43-year old former nursing student, expelled from the college, did not make a plea. Meanwhile, an administrator at the school says she was his primary intended target.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Yesterday he held a press conference with California sheriffs in San Diego to discuss realignment and funding for law enforcement.
The California State Sheriffs Association then issued its endorsement of Brown’s November revenue initiative.
Brown also decided yesterday to halt signature gathering on his original November revenue initiative, reasoning that signatures are coming in fast enough on the new initiative, a compromise with a left-labor coalition, to make sure that it will make it on the November ballot.
** MAD MEN: WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON, ANYWAY?The roar of generational change got ever louder in this week’s Mad Men, so much so that Roger Sterling plaintively wondered when things will go back to normal. That would be “Never,” Roger. At least for you. As always, there be spoilers ahead.
Meanwhile … She’s baaack. It’s around the 4th of July, 1966, and the character so many love to hate, and whom many thought had slipped away from the storyline, Betty Draper Francis, has returned to the show in a big way. Literally. Well, not that big. But the svelte Grace Kelly lookalike has put on a lot of weight. (This is how creator Matthew Weiner deals with star January Jones’s real-life pregnancy, which arrived not long after she wrapped her co-starring role as wintry telepath Emma Frost in X-Men: First Class.) …
Now she’s married to a doting older man, Henry Francis, a top advisor to the liberal New York Republicans who once played so large a role in American politics. (And if that doesn’t date this show, nothing will.) … From my April 3rd essay.
** CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS IN CRISIS: ANOTHER BIG SHOE DROPS.Another big shoe dropped Wednesday in the ongoing crisis of the California Republican Party. One of its young rising stars, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, a decorated Marine veteran of the Iraq War, dropped his party registration to become an independent. Which might be a path forward for Republicans who don’t reject modernity and governance. … From my March 29th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Mitt Romney, accusing President Barack Obama today of playing “hide and seek,” claimed in a speech today before the American Society of Newspaper Editors that Obama is planning a series of policy surprises if he wins a second term. This is an attempt to stir up FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) about a very well-known product.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE” (AGAIN) OR MERELY IN COMMAND OF THE REPUBLICAN RACE?
** QUICK HITS. Governor Jerry Brown tweeted today that he is in the finals of an online poll conducted by the San Francisco Chronicle for the top bald man in the Bay Area. He may need some help, because he is in tough against another guy named Jerry. That would be football legend Jerry Rice. I had to think about my vote on that one. … In arguably more consequential news, Brown decided today to halt signature gathering on his original November revenue initiative, reasoning that signatures are coming in fast enough on the new initiative, a compromise with a left-labor coalition, to make sure that it will make it on the November ballot.
** NEW POLL: OBAMA STRENGTHENING AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS.A new Gallup Poll survey shows President Barack Obama strengthening his lead over Mitt Romney among independents even as Romney strengthens his lead in the Republican presidential race.
Obama has a big 48-39 edge over Romney among swing state independents, a big shift since last fall. His lead over Rick Santorum is even bigger, 53-32.
The key to Obama’s big edge? Independent women.
Barack Obama has a 48% to 39% advantage over Mitt Romney among independent voters in 12 key swing states. He first moved ahead of Romney among this group in February after being tied in January and trailing last year.
The results are based on the most recent USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, conducted March 20-26, among voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. …
The movement toward Obama is essentially due to independents’ changing preferences, because Democrats’ and Republicans’ preferences have been highly stable. Since October, Obama has averaged an 87% to 10% lead over Romney among swing-state Democrats, while Romney has averaged a 90% to 6% lead over Obama among swing-state Republicans.
Obama’s standing against Romney has improved substantially in the swing states among women. Among independents, he has gained among both men and women, but more so among women. In combined data from October and December 2011, Obama trailed Romney by 11 percentage points among independent men and five points among independent women. In combined data from February and March, Obama has a one-point advantage among independent men and a 14-point advantage among independent women. …
Mitt Romney strengthened his frontrunner’s perch in the Republican presidential race last night, winning in Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia over Rick Santorum and the other candidates. The ex-Massachusetts governor, out to establish himself as “inevitable” once again, called it “a great victory.”
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IS ROMNEY “INEVITABLE” (AGAIN) OR MERELY IN COMMAND OF THE REPUBLICAN RACE?
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama hosted his annual Easter Prayer Breakfast, at which Vice President Joe Biden also delivered remarks in the East Room.
Obama and Biden then received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Following that, Obama met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then signed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, which makes clear that Members of Congress are subject to the same insider trading laws that apply to everyone else, in the South Court Auditorium.
As is often the case, Obama’s public schedule doesn’t reflect the behind-the-scenes crisis management that takes up so much of his time in this tumultuous period in history.
Does he have a Republican opponent yet?
That’s the question after last night’s primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, which were swept by Mitt Romney.
Romney beat Santorum in Wisconsin, 44-37, and in Maryland, 49-29. Santorum was not on the D.C. ballot, where Romney got 70% of the vote to Ron Paul’s (remember him? 12%, and Newt Gingrich’s 11%.
Gingrich was third in Maryland with 11% while Paul pulled off the distant third in Wisconsin with 11%. Gingrich got 6% there. Had he not been on the ballot, Santorum would have had another close but no cigar primary finish there.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
President Barack Obama, viewed by many of his opponents as a secret Muslim, says the Easter story of Christ’s agony and resurrection has helped him get through the tough moments of an embattled presidency. The president got ‘Amens’ from religious leaders at a White House prayer breakfast.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and Southern California.
At 4:30 PM, he holds a press conference with California sheriffs to discuss realignment and funding for law enforcement at the Town and Country Resort in San Diego.
I expect he will also get some questions about the reworked high-speed rail plan.
He then delivers remarks at the California State Sheriffs’ Association Annual Conference, which is at the same venue.
** MAD MEN: WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON, ANYWAY?The roar of generational change got ever louder in this week’s Mad Men, so much so that Roger Sterling plaintively wondered when things will go back to normal. That would be “Never,” Roger. At least for you. As always, there be spoilers ahead.
Meanwhile … She’s baaack. It’s around the 4th of July, 1966, and the character so many love to hate, and whom many thought had slipped away from the storyline, Betty Draper Francis, has returned to the show in a big way. Literally. Well, not that big. But the svelte Grace Kelly lookalike has put on a lot of weight. (This is how creator Matthew Weiner deals with star January Jones’s real-life pregnancy, which arrived not long after she wrapped her co-starring role as wintry telepath Emma Frost in X-Men: First Class.) …
Now she’s married to a doting older man, Henry Francis, a top advisor to the liberal New York Republicans who once played so large a role in American politics. (And if that doesn’t date this show, nothing will.) But though she’s had a chance to be part of the glittering circle around New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller — which we sadly never see — and Henry is now a chief advisor to glamorous new New York Mayor John Lindsay, she’s depressed. (In six years time in the Mad Men universe, Lindsay will be an anti-war Democrat running for president.) So much so that she’s taken to constant snacking, which makes her heavier, which makes her more depressed. Funny how that works. … From my April 3rd essay.
** CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS IN CRISIS: ANOTHER BIG SHOE DROPS.Another big shoe dropped Wednesday in the ongoing crisis of the California Republican Party. One of its young rising stars, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, a decorated Marine veteran of the Iraq War, dropped his party registration to become an independent. Which might be a path forward for Republicans who don’t reject modernity and governance.
Ranking Republicans privately bemoaned the fact that their party has a very thin bench when it comes to people who might win a future statewide election. Fletcher was part of a very short list.
Meanwhile, Governor Jerry Brown continued to get good news moving forward toward his November revenue initiative, a measure that would have been unnecessary had Republicans last year not rejected him and his more moderate course at that time on taxation. …
Fletcher’s move sets up a very intriguing test case for Republicans who haven’t turned their backs on modernity and governance. … From my March 29th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $68 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $12 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In a speech this morning before the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, President Barack Obama said that a budget plan presented by House Republicans represents a “prescription for decline” that harms future generations and declared that Ronald Reagan couldn’t get nominated by the present Republican Party.
TEEING UP TUESDAY.
Mitt Romney is trying to become “inevitable” again with likely wins over Rick Santorum in Tuesday primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. And President Barack Obama is just fine with that, as he and his team are loaded for bear on Romney from an oppo standpoint. In fact, they are firing away, aided by the strains revealed in the long Republican primary fight.
Of course, Santorum doesn’t see things that way. His forces see a rough April followed by a fruitful May, as the geography shifts again. But he’ll have to fend off what’s been his biggest problem, a media that has overstated Romney as a default position from the very beginning, in order to get there.
One person who will not be getting there, at least as a major factor in the primaries, which he has been of late to Santorum’s detriment, is Newt Gingrich. He’s pretty much out of oxygen, though he keeps expelling its carbon byproduct.
Meanwhile, more momentous events are largely occupying Obama’s attention.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Arabian Gulf foreign ministers in Riyadh on Saturday. She confirmed that negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program will start up again on April 13th. And that they will take place in Istanbul, meaning the US accepted the proposal made at the end of the week in Tehran by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan.
Clinton warned Iran that it must show it is serious in the upcoming talks and not simply stalling as she says they have done repeatedly
She and leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council discussed regional missile defense and how to keep shipping lanes open in the event of threatened Iranian attempts to disrupt them.
Then on Sunday, Clinton met with leaders from 70 countries in the Friends of Syria group. Gulf Arab states say they will pay the embattled Syrian opposition, and the US will provide “non-lethal aid.”
The Assad regime keeps saying that it has accepted the UN-brokered ceasefire. Now that it has broken the back of its opposition, as it claims.
But it is refusing to withdraw its forces from centers of opposition until April 10th. Assuming it keeps its word then, word it has broken in the past.
This is why foreign intervention slides forward.
In AfPak matters, seeming revelations about Osama bin Laden’s ramblings across Pakistan while the most wanted man in the world — discussed here last week — continue to reverberate. Contrary to initial word from the Pakistani government, they will not be hanging on to bin Laden’s widows and children, the better to keep a lid on what they have to say. Now the word is that they will be sent to Yemen and Saudi Arabia, after very short jail sentences which will be up soon. Of course, it hasn’t happened yet.
And the Afghan government continues to insist that the Obama Administration spell out precisely what sort of military presence it has in mind after the widespread withdrawal still slated for late 2014, and precisely what bases it wants to to be allowed.
Back in California politics, Governor Jerry Brown’s administration has unveiled its reworked revamp of the business plan for high-speed rail.
It’s much as discussed here last week, and in previous week’s comments by Brown. It accelerates and accordions some of its decades-long development, and cuts the cost of the system by more than $30 billion, back down to $68 billion.
The spine of the system, which Brown and the Obama Administration want to begin work on soon, would run from Merced in the northern San Joaquin Valley to the San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles.
Included in the plan would be near term upgrades of rail systems in the San Francisco Bay Area and LA areas to make them compatible with fast rail, and to provide more immediate sweeteners to major population centers from an historic project that will still take decades to complete.
But not right away. For one thing, the state legislature is away again, this time for a week of spring break. California will somehow make do.
Obama has a full week in terms of a public schedule, which of course does not reflect the big geopolitical crises he is attempting to manage.
On Monday, Obama hosted Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada and President Felipe Calderon of Mexico for the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS) in Washington.
On Tuesday, Obama will deliver remarks at the AP Luncheon during the American Society of Newspaper Editors Convention in Washington.
On Wednesday, Obama will host an Easter Prayer Breakfast at the White House. Christian leaders from around the country will join the President at the breakfast. Also on Wednesday, Obama will sign the STOCK Act, making clear that Members of Congress are subject to the same insider trading laws that apply to everyone else.
On Thursday, Obama will sign the JOBS Act, which includes several initiatives Obama proposed last fall to help small businesses and start-ups grow and create jobs.
On Friday, Obama will deliver remarks at the White House Forum on Women and the Economy. In the evening, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will mark the beginning of Passover with a Seder at the White House with friends and staff.
Mitt Romney hopes to sweep Tuesday’s primaries over Rick Santorum in Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia and assert a sense of command over the Republican presidential race.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then delivered remarks and did Q & A at the Associated Press luncheon during the American Society of Newspaper Editors Convention at the Washington Marriott Wardman Park.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** MAD MEN: WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON, ANYWAY?The roar of generational change got ever louder in this week’s Mad Men, so much so that Roger Sterling plaintively wondered when things will go back to normal. That would be “Never,” Roger. At least for you. As always, there be spoilers ahead.
Meanwhile … She’s baaack. It’s around the 4th of July, 1966, and the character so many love to hate, and whom many thought had slipped away from the storyline, Betty Draper Francis, has returned to the show in a big way. Literally. Well, not that big. But the svelte Grace Kelly lookalike has put on a lot of weight. (This is how creator Matthew Weiner deals with star January Jones’s real-life pregnancy, which arrived not long after she wrapped her co-starring role as wintry telepath Emma Frost in X-Men: First Class.)
Absent an untimely demise, Betty is forever a key character in the show. She and Don were the perfect couple at the dawn of the ’60s, “the pair on top of the wedding cake,” as Roger Sterling admiringly and enviously put it. She was Don’s trophy wife with a brain, a multi-lingual graduate of a top college, Bryn Mawr, who wanted to partner with Don as he rose in advertising, as we saw in the Rome episode in which she dazzled Conrad Hilton, but was shunted to one of Don’s compartments as a suburban housewife, bitterly left only with a new charm for her bracelet.
Now she’s married to a doting older man, Henry Francis, a top advisor to the liberal New York Republicans who once played so large a role in American politics. (And if that doesn’t date this show, nothing will.) But though she’s had a chance to be part of the glittering circle around New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller — which we sadly never see — and Henry is now a chief advisor to glamorous new New York Mayor John Lindsay, she’s depressed. (In six years time in the Mad Men universe, Lindsay will be an anti-war Democrat running for president.) So much so that she’s taken to constant snacking, which makes her heavier, which makes her more depressed. Funny how that works.
And the doctor she’s gone to for diet pills, also known as speed, tells her she’s a depressed “middle-aged woman.” Middle-aged? She’s, like, 34 or 35! Even more depressing, but a typically sexist and ageist view. (If I don’t mention the sexism that permeates the show, it’s because it permeates the show, and the era. It’s like mentioning the color of the sky. Feminism doesn’t become a big thing till another decade and Mad Men is not scifi. This is not a show about enlightened heroes and heroines.) Then Betty discovers she has a tumor.
It turns out to be benign, of course, but not until the Don-Betty connection rears its head again (she craves his reassurance and he’s clearly worried about his “Birdie,” and not sold on Megan as the mother of his children) and a fortune teller — of all story-telling devices! — makes Betty see the irony of an errant reading of tea leaves. Our Betty, in the reading, is a wonderful person and a light to the world. Er, no. And she knows it.
While that plays out, under Jon Hamm’s steady direction, the drumbeat of generational change and ethnic change gets ever louder for the gang at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce.
Much of that drumbeat is a Charlie Watts backbeat as the music of the Rolling Stones takes center stage. Those zany execs at Heinz didn’t buy Peggy’s rather daft pitch about dancing beans, but they do want SCDP to get the Stones to turn “Time Is On My Side” — which the exec calls “Time Is On Your Side” until Megan, youngest in the room, tellingly corrects it as “Time Is On MY Side” — into a jingle. You know, “Heinz Is On My Side.”
This is the comic centerpiece of the episode, as Don and Harry Crane venture to a Stones concert in Forest Hills to try to sign the band. (Which had already done a commercial, incidentally. Mick Jagger did go to the London School of Economics, you know.) …
** CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS IN CRISIS: ANOTHER BIG SHOE DROPS.Another big shoe dropped Wednesday in the ongoing crisis of the California Republican Party. One of its young rising stars, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, a decorated Marine veteran of the Iraq War, dropped his party registration to become an independent. Which might be a path forward for Republicans who don’t reject modernity and governance.
Ranking Republicans privately bemoaned the fact that their party has a very thin bench when it comes to people who might win a future statewide election. Fletcher was part of a very short list.
Meanwhile, Governor Jerry Brown continued to get good news moving forward toward his November revenue initiative, a measure that would have been unnecessary had Republicans last year not rejected him and his more moderate course at that time on taxation. …
Fletcher’s move sets up a very intriguing test case for Republicans who haven’t turned their backs on modernity and governance. … From my March 29th essay.
** MAD MEN (FINALLY) RETURNS: WORTH THE WAIT?Mad Men is back, finally, after the biggest series hiatus since The Sopranos. Was it worth the wait? …
Part of the brilliance of Matthew Weiner’s conception of the show is that it has shown us a world we haven’t really seen otherwise. Yes, it’s set in the ’60s, but the bulk of it has been about the early ’60s. Which for most is terra incognita, aside from hazy images of JFK, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the civil rights movement, Sinatra and the Rat Pack, and the early days of the Beatles.
The massively over-exposed part of the ’60s, which gave rise to culture wars which still exist in this country, not to mention a baby boomer cultural dominance which has become more than a little dull even as it has persisted for decades, is still yet to come. …
But the rumblings of change — in this case racial change and generational change — are getting much louder. And the drumbeat of dissatisfaction despite success, a constant in the show, is louder than ever. … From my March 27th essay.
** THE REAL GAME CHANGE: PALINISM’S RISE AND MODERATE REPUBLICANISM’S ECLIPSE. … From my March 23rd essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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