In his weekend video/radio address, President Barama Obama discusses a new executive order to crack down on those who defraud military veterans and service members pursuing higher education.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: BODIES AT REST and MAD MEN: “AT THE CODFISH BALL.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Virginia this weekend.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
On Saturday at 5 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama attend the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton. Obama, who will no doubt be roasted by comedian Jimmy Kimmel, will deliver remarks.
On Sunday at 3 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence in Virginia.
On Sunday at 4:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a second fundraiser at a private residence in Virginia.
Former President Bill Clinton joins Obama at both events.
Here’s what Obama’s week ahead looks like, at least in public. There are plenty of holes in it for dealing with geopolitical crises and responding to political exigencies.
On Monday morning, Obama will deliver remarks at the Building and Construction Trades Department Legislative Conference in Washington. In the afternoon, Obama will welcome Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of Japan to the White House. The two leaders will discuss the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance as Obama shifts geostrategic focus to the Asia Pacific region. They will also discuss trade, finance, and various security concerns.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Thursday, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a Cinco de Mayo reception at the White House.
On Friday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Saturday, Obama will travel to Columbus, Ohio and Richmond, Virginia, both swing states, for campaign events.
More signs of a rift at the top of Israel’s military and intelligence hierarchy with regard to the Iran crisis emerged on Friday. On Wednesday, as discussed here, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces said he thinks that Iranian leaders are “rational” and will not choose to make nuclear weapons. On Friday the most recent former head of Shin Bet, Israel’s counter-intelligence and security service, Yuval Diskin, said that he has no confidence in Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, calling their decisions “based on messianic feelings.”
Iran, incidentally, says again it is willing to “compromise” on its nuclear program, which is putting it closer and closer to becoming nuclear weapons capable, which is not the same as yet producing a nuclear weapon. But there are no specifics.
The Obama Administration, however, may have some, potentially allowing continued limited uranium enrichment, far below the level needed to construct a nuclear weapon, in exchange for unrestricted inspections.
Former President Bill Clinton, who has begun appearing at fundraisers with President Barack Obama, an antagonist of four years ago, appears in this campaign video praising Obama for the take-down of Osama bin Laden. The first anniversary of the Navy SEAL raid on Abbottabad, Pakistan is on May 2nd. Mitt Romney criticized Obama during Obama’s first campaign for advocating anti-Al Qaeda raids inside Pakistan and derided the hunt for bin Laden as a mistake.
More negotiations between Iran and several international powers will take place the third week of May. Iran had wanted the talks to happen in Baghdad, where it would have something of a home court advantage in now very friendly Iraq. But the talks will take place in Vienna, which is home to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog agency which seeks more meaningful access to Iran’s program.
Meanwhile, the US is quietly putting together a major armada of land-based fighter aircraft in the Middle East to complement the build-up of Navy aircraft carrier forces. The build-up of F-22 stealth fighters and conventional but high-performance F-15 air superiority fighters, based in Gulf Arab states, is only necessary as a counter to an adversary with jet fighter capability. Such planes were not needed during the Iraq War because Saddam Hussein had no air force to speak of. Iran does.
With the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden coming up on May 2nd, Pakistan on Friday deported his family to Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden’s three wives and 14 children and grand-children, all of whom somehow escaped detection for years, were flown to the Red Sea Saudi city of Jeddah.
Even as that took place, talks were underway between US AfPak special envoy Marc Grossman and top Pakistani leaders to try to get US/Pakistani relations back on an even keel.
The talks did not succeed.
Pakistan is still refusing to allow US and NATO supplies to transit Pakistan, as they long had. That’s because the US refuses to apologize at the highest level for air strikes which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at an outpost along the AfPak border in November.
The US might have relented, even in a hyper-partisan election year, but the brazen Taliban attacks on Kabul of April 15th made that very difficult. Why? Because they probably originated from Pakistan, where Taliban and Taliban allies make their bases.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE? JERRY BROWN BRINGS AN INCOMPLETE STORY.Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington for a round of meetings and appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table, along with General David Petraeus, the Iraq War and Afghan War commander-turned-CIA director, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, and Oscar-winning actress Reese Witherspoon.
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this particular incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this is his second trip of the year to Washington. He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference.
It’s also a good opportunity to articulate what he’s doing as governor of California, in an historic third term, to a national and international audience. California is safe territory for Barack Obama’s re-election, but an important proving ground for new energy and transportation initiatives.
What will he say? I can certainly guess, but we know what Brown, twice runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, is saying when he says it. …
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington, DC.
He is holding private meetings.
On Saturday, he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will attend the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The Avengers, which opens across North America on May 4th, is tracking in the vicinity of record box office for an opening weekend. The film, which stars Uma Thurman, Ralph Fiennes, and Sir Sean Connery … wait, is this the right trailer?
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $104.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $71 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $9 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Under the reworked security deal reached with Japan, the US will redeploy nearly 10,000 Marines from the southern Japanese island of Okinawa to other locations in the Asia Pacific region. In part, it is resolution of longstanding Japanese complaint against a too large US presence, and in part a play to the new US geostrategic focus on the region.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … JERRY BROWN BACK ON THE NATIONAL STAGE and NEWTONIAN MOTION: BODIES AT REST and MAD MEN: “AT THE CODFISH BALL.”
** QUICK HITS. More signs of a rift at the top of Israel’s military and intelligence hierarchy with regard to the Iran crisis. On Wednesday, as discussed here, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces said he thinks that Iranian leaders are “rational” and will not choose to make nuclear weapons. Today the most recent former head of Shin Bet, Israel’s counter-intelligence and security service, Yuval Diskin, said that he has no confidence in Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, calling their decisions “based on messianic feelings.” … Iran, incidentally, says again it is willing to “compromise” on its nuclear program, which is putting it closer and closer to becoming nuclear weapons capable, which is not the same as yet producing a nuclear weapon. But there are no specifics. … Meanwhile, the US is quietly putting together a major armada of land-based fighter aircraft in the Middle East to complement the build-up of Navy aircraft carrier forces. The build-up of F-22 stealth fighters and conventional but high-performance F-15 air superiority fighters, based in Gulf Arab states, is only necessary as a counter to an adversary with jet fighter capability. Such planes were not needed during the Iraq War because Saddam Hussein had no air force to speak of. Iran does. … With the first anniversary of the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden coming up on May 2nd, Pakistan today deported his family to Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden’s three wives and 14 children and grand-children, all of whom somehow escaped detection for years, have been flow to the Red Sea Saudi city of Jeddah.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Georgia.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He and First Lady Michelle Obama then departed the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, where they boarded Air Force One and flew to Fort Stewart, outside Hinesville, Georgia.
Obama then delivered remarks to troops, veterans and military families, following introductory remarks by the first lady, outside the headquarters of the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division.
At 11:05 AM Pacific, Obama departs Georgia on Air Force en route Washington, DC.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at the Washington Convention Center.
At 3:10 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at a private residence.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck went first in Thursday evening’s first round of the NFL draft. He’s the fourth Stanford quarterback to be the first pick in the first round. Luck, a two-time runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, goes to the now Peyton Manning-free Indianapolis Colts. Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, the gun-slinging world class track star, went second, to the Washington Redskins, where I expect him to become the toast of the nation’s capital.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington, DC.
He is holding private meetings.
On Saturday, he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will attend the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A UFO (Unusual Flying Object) has been sighted all around New York City’s airspace today. It’s the Space Shuttle Enterprise, riding on top of a modified jumbo jet. The shuttle prototype was brought from Washington to New York, heading to a museum there.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $105 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $71 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $9 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
News Corp mogul and Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch, testifying in London, admits a corporate cover-up but claims he was misled over the phone hacking scandal that has been growing and shaking his media empire for the past year.
** JERRY-RIGGING: WITH PLANS IN THE AIR, OFF TO WASHINGTON. Governor Jerry Brown is off to Washington for a round of meetings and weekend appearances on CBS’s Face the Nation and the annual White House Correspondents Dinner, where I believe he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown will be at the Newsweek table. (Along with General David Petraeus and actress Reese Witherspoon.)
While Brown is not exactly Arnold-like in his round of public appearances, or even Jerry-like in this incarnation of himself, he is getting out and about more than he did last year. After skipping appearances in the East during 2011, this will be his second trip of the year to Washington.
He was there in February around the National Governors Association conference.
It will also be a good opportunity to articulate what he’s doing as governor of California to a national and international audience.
Brown did appear on NBC’s Meet the Press in February, but with the governors association in town, unavoidably ended up being paired opposite controversial Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
While Brown prepares to fly the Bear Flag in the Beltway, he does so after releasing some big new plans this week, notably in regard to downsizing the state prison system and rightsizing energy consumption in state buildings.
Brown’s prison plan would cut general fund spending from 11.1% of the total to 7.5%. It would also cut $4.1 billion in authorized bond spending for prison construction, saving $2.2 billion in operating costs and debt service.
The moves are being made not only to cut costs in California’s still strapped state budget, but to meet federal court demands to reduce over-crowding.
– By 2020, 50 percent of al l new state buildings will be zero net energy facilities — that means they will be carbon neutral. By 2025, all new state buildings will need to hit the zero net mark.
– By 2018, all state facilities will have to reduce the power they buy off the grid — that is from utilities — by 20 percent compared to a 2003 baseline. Non-building related energy purchases will also have to cut 20 percent from 2003.
– All state agencies will need to take actions to cut their greenhouse gas emissions at least 10 percent by 2015 and 20 percent by 2020, compared to a 2010 baseline.
– Any proposed new state building or major renovation of existing facilities larger than 10,000 square feet will need to generate its power onsite using solar photovoltaic, solar thermal or wind power generation, along with clean back-up power supplies, if economically feasible.
– Any new state buildings, major renovations to existing facilties or build-to-suit leases larger than 10,000 square feet will have to obtain LEED Silver certification or higher.
Meanwhile, Brown and his forces keep pushing on his compromise November revenue initiative, steaming toward qualification.
Brown, as readers know, was prompted to join forces with a left/labor coalition pushing a steeply progressive “millionaire’s tax.” As a result, his ballot initiative got more progressive in terms of the impact on income taxes and reduced the amount of revenue coming from what is now only a quarter-cent sales tax.
At 64% support, it looks very good for Brown and allies. And major institutional opposition is not emerging so far.
Now there is a new Public Policy Institute of California poll (which was actually taken during the first week of April) showing only 54% support for the initiative, with 39% opposed. The problem isn’t with higher taxes on the wealthy, it’s with a sales tax hike for all.
However, this poll poses the question on Brown’s initiative using a question leading with the same formal title and summary it used before, when it got essentially the same results.
This poll is not a problem for Brown’s initiative. But other initiatives moving on to the ballot — by which I do not mean heiress Molly Munger’s zombie tax hike (opposed by nearly 60% in this latest poll, as in other polling) — may be problematic.
Initiatives to abolish the death penalty and alter the state’s three-strikes and you’re out sentencing law will challenge Brown’s ability to stay focused on his measure.
** NEW POLL: HUGE LEAD FOR OBAMA WITH YOUNG VOTERS, BUT TURNOUT IS THE KEY. A new Gallup Poll survey shows that voters aged 18 to 29 give President Barack Obama a huge edge over his presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.
But the trick will be getting them to turn out.
Which explains Obama’s big push over the past week on college loans.
Obama leads Romney among voters aged 18 to 29 by a whopping 64% to 29%.
Obama actually leads in all age groups up to the age of 65, at which point Romney takes a significant lead.
Here are the numbers:
18-29: Obama, 64-29.
30-49: Obama, 49-44.
50-64: Obama 48-44.
65-on: Romney, 52-40.
President Obama this week made an explicit effort to shore up his support among young voters, embarking on a “college tour” of campuses in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa. Obama called on Congress to pass legislation that would keep the interest rates on student loans from doubling this summer, as they are scheduled to do under current law. Romney, in a rare instance of agreement with Obama, also came out in support of Congress’ taking this action, marking his own effort to gain support among the youth vote.
It’s clear at this point that Obama maintains the decisive edge when young voters are asked whom they support for president, as he did in 2008. Voters aged 18 to 29 in Gallup’s most recent five-day average, April 20-24, support Obama over Romney by 35 percentage points, 64% to 29%, and — compared with older age groups — have been disproportionately supportive of Obama since Gallup’s tracking began on April 11, albeit by differing margins. Obama’s lead is five and four percentage points, respectively, among those 30 to 49 and 50 to 64, while Romney leads by 12 points among those 65 and older. Overall, for the April 20-24 five-day period, Obama leads by six points, 49% to 43%.
The practical value of Obama’s broad support among young voters is lessened by the fact that only six in 10 of these voters say they are registered to vote, and that fewer than six in 10 who are registered say they will definitely vote in November’s election. By way of contrast, Romney’s relatively strong support among voters 65 and older is more politically potent; these older voters are well above average in their voter registration percentage, and are most likely of any age group to say they will definitely vote in November’s election. …
Vice President Joe Biden today, citing the success in Libya and other issues, has issued a strong defense of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy record and suggested that Republican Mitt Romney doesn’t understand the role of contemporary commander in chief.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Vice President Joe Biden in the Oval Office.
Obama completed a multi-state tour focusing on college assistance issues yesterday afternoon.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and en route to Washington, DC.
Last night, he spoke at the U.S. Green Building Council Reception at the EPA Building in Sacramento.
At 10:30 AM, Brown speaks at a press conference at the Cathedral of the Blessed Sacramento in Sacramento hosted by PICO California as they announce their “Land of Opportunity” initiative to mobilize voters to vote their values and shape the future of California. He will be joined by some 200 multi-faith clergy leaders at the event.
Later today, Brown travels to Washington to attend this Saturday’s White House Correspondents Association Dinner at the Washington Hilton.
On Sunday, he will appear on the CBS News program Face the Nation for a one-on-one interview with host Bob Schieffer.
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
To that phrase, for the latest episode of Mad Men, add trippy-wippy.
The episode shifts through time and perspective, like, oh, say, Pulp Fiction, and only one of the three stories in (not so) “Far Away Places” centers on an LSD trip.
The hairpin plot twists so evident in last week’s episode continue in this one, as does the sense of suddenly (seemingly?) impending doom. …
From my April 24th essay.
Hundreds of schools in Afghanistan’s Ghazni province, a major center between Kabul and Kandahar, have been forced to close because of threats from the Taliban.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Addressing a boisterous crowd of students at the University of Iowa, President Barack Obama continued his push for improvements in student aid.
** QUICK HITS.General Benny Gantz, chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces, said today that he thinks Iran’s leaders are “very rational” and are unlikely to produce nuclear weapons. This seems to fly in the face of what the country’s current political leadership is saying. … Acceding to the inevitable, Newt Gingrich will effectively end his presidential campaign next Tuesday. He had already pulled back substantially, as previously discussed. I’ll have a “Newtonian Motion” piece coming up. … Governor Jerry Brown released another big plan in a key issue area, following on Monday’s release of a plan to cut billions from California’s corrections budget and eliminate thousands of positions. … Today saw Brown establish expansive new goals to “green” state-owned buildings, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, developing new energy efficiencies in design and practice, and establishing more on-site generation of green energy. … I’ll get into both these developments, and more tomorrow in a “Jerry-Rigging” piece. …
** NEW SURVEY: A BIG DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN OBAMA AND ROMNEY — RELIGIOSITY. A new Gallup Poll survey reveals what seems logical.
The more religious a voter, the more likely to be for Mitt Romney.
The less religious, the more likely to be for Barack Obama
Among the very religious, Romney is favored by a whopping 54-37.
But among the moderately religious, Obama is favored by an almost identical margin, 54-40.
And among the non-religious, Obama has an overwhelming edge, 61-30.
For Romney to win, he will have to do a lot better among non-religious voters. But that will hurt him with the hard-core religious vote, which already has serious doubts about him, not the least of which is around his Mormon religion, which is not tested in the Gallup Poll.
Or, alternatively, Romney can seek to do even better among religious voters. But that would hurt his overall positioning as he tries to move toward the center and win swing state independents.
For the purpose of this analysis, an American’s relative degree of religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the importance of religion in one’s life and about church attendance, yielding three specific groups:
Very religious — Religion is an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every week. This group makes up 41% of registered voters interviewed April 19-23.
Moderately religious — All others who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion questions. This group makes up 27% of registered voters.
Nonreligious — Religion is not an important part of daily life and respondents seldom or never attend church/synagogue/mosque. This group makes up 32% of registered voters.
Voters’ religiousness was a significant correlate of vote choice during the Republican presidential primary season this year, with more religious Republicans tending to vote for Rick Santorum, while less religious Republicans tilted toward Romney. Despite Romney’s troubles with highly religious Republican voters, he gets the disproportionate support from highly religious voters in the general election that Republican candidates traditionally enjoy. Very religious voters make up less than half of the electorate, however, and among all Americans, Romney is losing to Obama by a seven-point margin. …
** MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).On what is actually my favorite show, as in most greatly enjoyed, Doctor Who, there is a hand-waving phrase to cover the shifty plot twists inherent in the saga of the antically enigmatic traveler through time and space known as the Doctor. “Wibbley-wobbley, timey-wimey.” As in, the flux capacitor went thataway and moving right along.
To that phrase, for the latest episode of Mad Men, add trippy-wippy.
The episode shifts through time and perspective, like, oh, say, Pulp Fiction, and only one of the three stories in (not so) “Far Away Places” centers on an LSD trip.
The hairpin plot twists so evident in last week’s episode continue in this one, as does the sense of suddenly (seemingly?) impending doom. …
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Colorado, Iowa, and Washington, DC.
Obama flew this morning from Aurora, Coloardo to Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Air Force One.
Once there, he took part in a roundtable with students at the University of Iowa.
He then delivered an address at the University of Iowa on his drive to get Congress to prevent a doubling of interest rates on student loans.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Air Force One en route Washington, DC.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One.
At 2:45 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel.
Here’s a bad sign. The UK economy has fallen back into recession. Preliminary figures show output fell for the second successive quarter. This is Britain’s first double-dip recession since the 1970s, and Prime Minister David Cameron, already troubled by his administration’s links to the Murdoch hacking scandal, is being excoriated for his austerity policies.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
A local Sacramento judge said yesterday that California State Controller John Chiang doesn’t have the authority to withhold state legislative pay for failing to pass a balanced budget, as required by law. But it’s only a “tentative ruling.” Naturally, Chiang disagrees.
The California Assembly came up with enough money from its budget savings to salvage the state Commission on the Status of Women slated by the axe by Brown’s state budget.
Reacting yesterday to news that an initiative to abolish the death penalty has qualified for the November ballot, Brown said in San Jose that he’s glad people will get a chance to vote on the issue but didn’t comment on the issue per se. Brown is a longtime opponent of the death penalty.
However, as California attorney general he pursued its implementation.
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot. … From my April 24th essay.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. … From my April 19th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Google executives Larry Page and Eric Schmidt and filmmaker James Cameron, director of Avatar, Titanic, and the first two Terminator films are partners in a new venture to mine asteroids.
** QUICK HITS. A local Sacramento judge said today that California State Controller John Chiang doesn’t have the authority to withhold state legislative pay for failing to pass a balanced budget, as required by law. But it’s only a “tentative ruling.” Naturally, Chiang disagrees. … The California Assembly came up with enough money from its budget savings to salvage the state Commission on the Status of Women slated by the axe by Governor Jerry Brown. … Reacting today to news that an initiative to abolish the death penalty has qualified for the November ballot, Brown said today in San Jose that he’s glad people will get a chance to vote on the issue but didn’t comment on the issue per se. Brown is a longtime opponent of the death penalty.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … MAD MEN: WIBBLY-WOBBLY, TIMEY-WIMEY, TRIPPY-WIPPY (AND PEGGY OLSON IS NO DANA SCULLY).
** HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GAUNTLET.It might just be President Hillary Clinton, after all. But what would that mean? Could she move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition under Barack Obama?
Pulling back from the usual back-and-forth of the moment reveals the potential for historic opportunities. But it’s a rugged gauntlet getting there.
Because it’s never too early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now. Public Policy Polling came up with numbers last week for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, assuming Mitt Romney isn’t on the ballot.
Obama is either ahead, sometimes significantly, or tied in the various 2012 polls as the two campaigns probe for opportunity and vulnerability.
I think Obama has the edge, though missteps and major crises could upend him, and the super PAC phenomenon is a problem for him with the various economic interests upset with the president, notably the old energy economy, able to cut massive checks, sometimes secretly.
Romney’s campaign reminds me quite a lot of billionaire Meg Whitman’s 2010 campaign for governor of California. Which is not exactly surprising, since her candidacy was Romney’s idea in the first place, as I reported here on the Huffington Post two years ago in “The Mitt and Meg Show: Taking Care of Business.”
That venture, the biggest spending non-presidential campaign in American history, ended in a landslide win for Jerry Brown.
Today, Hillary seems a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Her favorability with Democrats is an amazing 86-10. Working for Obama has certainly won the favor of his backers in their hard-fought 2008 primary battle. In the poll, she leads by an overwhelming margin. She’s at 57%, to Vice President Joe Biden at 14%, Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren at 6%, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at 5%, former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold at 3%, Virginia Senator Mark Warner at 2%, and 1% apiece for Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer. (Biden, a clear leader in Clinton’s absence, has a favorable/unfavorable ratio of 70-21, while Cuomo is 32-24.)
If the names polled seem rather random, they are. The future for the Democratic Party arrived early, in the form of Barack Obama. In his absence, there is something of a paucity of obvious “new generation” candidates aside from New York’s governor. Besides, with people living longer and more vigorously, why not look to an old new generation candidate? Jerry Brown, who I rather suspect will be in a historic fourth term as California’s governor in 2016, could make an intriguing choice were he so inclined. Which I tend to doubt, but one never knows.
If Romney manages to win, I expect the pressure on Hillary to run from Democrats to be enormous. With Obama’s re-election, the pressure would be less but the opportunity could be greater.
In any event, she could certainly be in a great position in 2016. Hillary has announced that she’s leaving public office after this term. But associates speculate that, after a year or so of a more restful schedule — Clinton is traveling constantly around the world as secretary of state — she could be ready to roll for the next act.
Not just to win, but to move the country forward after a tumultuous period of transition. We could complete the transition out of the Iraq mode we’re still semi-stuck in, forge ahead on the new energy economy, and dispense with the anti-government/no-tax mania that warps public discourse. …
President Barack Obama told college students at the University of North Carolina that he and his wife, Michelle, know what it’s like to owe student loans because the two of them didn’t come from wealthy families. Obama is on a tour promoting low rates for federal student loans.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, North Carolina, and Colorado.
In the morning, Obama honored the 2012 National Teacher of the Year and finalists in an event in the East Room.
He then flew on Air Force One to Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Obama then delivered remarks at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill calling on Congress to stop interest rates on student loans from doubling in July.
At 11:20 AM Pacific, Obama sits down for an interview for Late Night with Jimmy Fallon at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
At 12:40 PM Pacific, Obama departs Raleigh, North Carolina on Air Force One en route Colorado.
At 3:10 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Buckley Air Force Base in Colorado.
At 4:45 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on student loans at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Reports persist, including from UN associates on the ground, that Assad regime forces harass and attack Syrian civilians as soon as UN monitors leave the area.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
At 9 AM, he appears at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group CEO Business Summit at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose.
He and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper will discuss globalization, innovation, and the business climate
At noon, Brown appears at the annual Crime Victims’ Rights Rally on the West Steps of the State Capitol in Sacramento.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. … From my April 19th essay.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama calls on Congress to act before student loan interest rates double for more than 7.4 million students, which would add an average of $1000 to their debt. Much of Obama’s schedule for the next week seems to turn on the issue.
** NEW COLUMNS COMING UP … HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT? and MAD MEN: “FAR AWAY PLACES.”
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events on the weekend.
Obama spends much of the week ahead focusing on swing states and on messaging to attract young voters.
When he’s not working behind the scenes on the various geopolitical crises he’s managing, that is.
Speaking of which, the problem of insuring oil shipments under the new sanctions regimen is emerging as a very serious one for Iran. Marine insurance is part of the crackdown, with the European-based insurers Iran has relied on unable to participate going forward.
That leaves self-insurance or sovereign insurance as the options, which may be highly problematic.
The marine insurance issue, coupled with Iran being banned last month from SWIFT, the global financial messaging and payments network — which means that Iran is held over a barrel on price and the nature of payments by its remaining clients, since they are now limited in currency terms and increasingly having to accept barter they don’t really need — ratchets up the pressure greatly on Tehran.
Will that make them more amenable to reining in their nuclear program?
Or will that make it more likely that they will move on the Strait of Hormuz, as frequently threatened. And a move that may be more deftly achieved with Iran already picking a spat with the UAE over some small islands right in the vicinity.
On Monday, in commemoration of the Holocaust Days of Remembrance, Obama will deliver remarks at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington. Obama will also tour the museum with and be introduced by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel.
Wiesel, not incidentally, takes great issue with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s remarks in the past few days likening the Iranian regime with Hitler’s Germany. He says that Netanyahu is distorting the meaning of the Holocaust and cheapening it to score political points.
Also on Monday, Obama will present the Commander-in-Chief Trophy to the Air Force Academy football team at the White House. He does this every year to celebrate the team which does the best in competition between the three principal U.S. Armed Forces academies — the Naval Academy at Annapolis, the Military Academy at West Point, and the Air Force Academy at Colorado Springs. This past season, the Falcons unseated the winners of the past several seasons, the Navy Midshipmen.
On Tuesday morning, Obama will honor the 2012 National Teacher of the Year and finalists at the White House.
On Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, Obama will travel to North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa in a drive to get Congress to prevent interest rates on student loans from doubling in July. Obama will visit the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Also on Tuesday, he will also host an media conference call with college and university student journalists. Obama spends the night in Denver.
On Wednesday, Obama will visit the University of Iowa in Ames, before returning to Washington that evening.
On Thursday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Friday, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will meet with current troops, veterans, and military families at Fort Stewart in Hinesville, Georgia.
Syria’s so-called ceasefire continues to teeter. Assad regime soldiers used gunfire and teargas to disperse tens of thousands of protesters, who on Friday spilled out from mosques onto the streets in cities and towns across Syria, calling for the downfall of President Bashar al-Assad.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events this weekend.
On Monday, the Little Hoover Commission on state governmental efficiency begins three days of hearings on Brown’s fairly sweeping plans to reorganize state government. The commission has until the end of the month to evaluate the plan.
The legislature will then have 60 days to vote it down, if it so chooses.
I’m not of significant opposition as of yet, aside from concern about Brown’s plan to eliminate the Commission on the Status of Women.
Brown issued the following proclamation declaring April 21st to be John Muir Day in California:
“In every walk with nature one receives far more than he seeks.” – John Muir
John Muir (1838-1914) was a giant of a man. His vision of the pristine landscape as a source of spiritual renewal has become central to our understanding of the relationship between humanity and nature. In addition to his scientific discoveries, engineering innovations and writings that still inspire us today, Muir’s advocacy was instrumental in the creation of the National Park System, one of the world’s great ecological treasures.
It is a tribute to the beauty of our state that this consummate lover of nature chose California as his home. In return, California has honored him many times over. In 1976 the California Historical Society named John Muir “The Greatest Californian,” and our state quarter, issued in 2004 by the United States Mint, bears his image. Numerous parks, trails, roads, schools and other places around the state are named after him. John Muir Day was established in 1988, the 150th anniversary of his birth, by a unanimous vote of the Legislature. Today, as a way to honor Muir’s teachings and help keep his legacy alive, I suggest a visit to one of California’s public open spaces—national park, state park or any other unspoiled wilderness—which he strived so zealously to preserve.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. …
This is a struggle that has taken place, on and off, for decades, as the rest of the advanced industrial world moved ahead with rail. The same sorts of folks hitting Brown now on high-speed rail hit him during his first governorship for being a “Moonbeam” by pushing renewable energy. …
But it’s not just people pushing perspectives which benefit the entrenched interests of oil, car, and airline companies who suffer from tunnel vision. … From my April 19th essay.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A little movie called The Avengers opens the weekend after next. (It’s not the one with Emma Peel.)
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $103.88 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Tens of thousands of Egyptians have gathered in central Cairo’s famed Tahrir Square for one of the largest demonstrations since the ousting of Hosni Mubarak. They are protesting against the ruling military council throwing several front-running presidential candidates off the ballot and seeking control over elements of the emerging constitution.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT?
FRIDAY FUNHOUSE.
While Obama and Mitt Romney are in early stages of hitting swing states with appearances and messaging and feeling out each other’s vulnerabilities, polls are bouncing around.
Obama is either ahead, sometimes significantly, or tied in the various polls.
As readers know, I give Obama the decided strategic edge, though missteps and crises could upend him, and the super PAC phenomenon is a problem for him with the various economic interests upset with the president, notably the old energy economy, able to cut massive checks, sometimes secretly.
Romney’s campaign reminds me quite a lot of Meg Whitman’s 2010 campaign for governor of California. Which is not exactly surprising, since her candidacy was Romney’s idea in the first place, as I’ve discussed over the past two years.
I’ll get into that more as we go forward.
Meanwhile, protests are erupting again in Egypt, this time over the ruling military council’s move last weekend to remove leading presidential candidates from the ballot and amend the emerging constitution to preserve some of its power going forward.
The Egyptian revolution hasn’t turned out the way the secular reformers who sparked it hoped it would, nor the way many hopeful Westerners imagined it had.
The ceasefire in Syria is proving to be pretty one-sided, with Assad regime forces again attacking demonstrators. The UN is struggling to establish a working protocol for monitoring matters there, even as the US and other powers consider how best to secure humanitarian relief missions into the deeply troubled country.
The Iran crisis has lowered its temperature, at least publicly, in the wake of last weekend’s essentially substance-free negotiations in Istanbul.
They’ll talk again in more than a month, in now friendly-to-Iran Baghdad. Which is nice, but may be meaningless, other than blunting the swift drift to war.
At least in public.
But a new element in the Iran crisis has emerged over the past week which is highly problematic. Iran is laying fresh claim to three disputed islands on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical naval choke points.
This is a 40-year dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, which may provide a rationale for Iran to again place its naval forces in position to do what it began threatening last year; i.e., shut down the Strait to oil tanker traffic.
Meanwhile, back in California politics, Governor Jerry Brown’s revenue initiative continues steaming on its fast track for qualification for the November ballot.
Brown has unified the Democratic Party behind his measure, a compromise with a left/labor coalition that retains most of his original elements. And my soundings indicate that he is avoiding generating major institutional opposition to the initiative.
But heiress Molly Munger gave another $1.1 million to her zombie initiative to raise income taxes on virtually everyone in the state to provide more money to schools. She’s running ads in the LA and Bay Area media markets, ads I don’t think much of. And her well-paid consultants — who of course are not eager to point out to their patroness that financial initiatives don’t start out losing 32-64 and go on to victory — have rolled out some Internet gimmicks that I’m sure sounded impressive in the pitch meetings.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 12:35 PM Pacific, Obama signs a proclamation designating California’s Fort Ord a national monument. The event is in the Oval Office.
Fort Ord, located on Monterey Bay, was one of the Army’s most beautiful bases.
For World War II, the Korean War, and most of the Vietnam War, Fort Ord was the principal basic training facility for Army enlisted personnel.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who represented the area in Congress, was once stationed there, as were two other famed Northern Californians, Clint Eastwood and Jerry Garcia.
California State University Monterey Bay, home to the Leon Panetta Institute, occupies part of the grounds of Fort Ord.
At 1:45 PM Pacific, Obama welcomes the Wounded Warrior Project’s Soldier Ride to the White House
South Lawn.
This has turned into a sad but rather uplifting annual event, as very badly wounded veterans of the Iraq War and the Afghan War adjust to their changed physical circumstances but retain their competitive edge.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
The San Franciso 49ers broke ground Thursday afternoon on their new stadium, which is being built about 40 miles to the south in Silicon Valley’s Santa Clara. The new $1.2 billion stadium, slated to be ready for the 2014 NFL season, is expected to have 68,500 seats and is planned as a showcase of green technology and new communications technology.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and Central California.
He attends the funeral service in Modesto for Stanislaus County Sheriff’s Department Deputy Sheriff Robert Paris, who was killed in the line of duty.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. …
This is a struggle that has taken place, on and off, for decades, as the rest of the advanced industrial world moved ahead with rail. The same sorts of folks hitting Brown now on high-speed rail hit him during his first governorship for being a “Moonbeam” by pushing renewable energy. …
But it’s not just people pushing perspectives which benefit the entrenched interests of oil, car, and airline companies who suffer from tunnel vision. … From my April 19th essay.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Today brought a host of events across the UK to celebrate 100 days to go until the London Olympics. Concerns over security, transportation, and cost continue to provoke criticism, but the organizers say the Games will, in the words of the motto, “Inspire a Generation.”
** QUICK HITS.The top pick in a brand new CNN poll for Mitt Romney’s running mate? Stanford Professor and former Secretary of State Condi Rice. There’s just one thing. The former George W. Bush national security advisor will never do it. … 26% pick Rice, while 21% pick Rick Santorum. Florida Senator Marco Rubio and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tied for third at 14% each. … California Republican legislators have found a unifying issue requiring governmental action. A statue of Ronald Reagan in Sacramento’s Capitol Park. It would be built by private subscription, but they are quite vague as to where it would go. I say go for it. So long as the true story of Reagan’s pragmatic governorship is enshrined along with it.
** THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION: ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR JERRY BROWN.Jerry Brown has a number of problems to deal with in his new/renewed governorship. One of the biggest of all is a persistent tunnel vision in California’s frequently dysfunctional political culture.
Unfortunately, it’s a problem that afflicts both political parties and most interests, as well as their adherents, acknowledged and otherwise, in the media. …
The LAO report makes the obvious mistake of proceeding from the premise that a reactionary Congress will be in place for decades to come.
It’s only the advent of the Republican House in elections held little more than a year ago that put a serious crimp in federal support for the project. But since then, Tea Party Republicans and their allies in the old energy economy — and let’s be blunt, the order should be reversed because old energy economy interests have hard right Republicans fronting for them at every turn — have shot down the Obama Administration’s high-speed rail projects everywhere but California.
This is a struggle that has taken place, on and off, for decades, as the rest of the advanced industrial world moved ahead with rail. The same sorts of folks hitting Brown now on high-speed rail hit him during his first governorship for being a “Moonbeam” by pushing renewable energy. …
But it’s not just people pushing perspectives which benefit the entrenched interests of oil, car, and airline companies who suffer from tunnel vision.
Brown, speaking Tuesday at a California Medical Association legislative conference, said that he expects the state’s budget deficit to be a billion or more higher next month than the $9 billion he projected it at in his January budget proposal. Less money is coming in and more money is being spent than forecast.
And legislative Democrats balk, as they have so hopefully for years now — with Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis before him — at his latest budget cuts.
Instead, they choose to delay to see if things magically get better. But wishing for more revenue will not make it happen, and delaying cuts makes them worse.
This has been going on for a decade now, though legislative Democrats have shown themselves far more reality-oriented than legislative Republicans by undertaking necessary cuts on several occasions.
I remember talking with then Assembly Budget Committee chair Jenny Oropeza a decade ago. She insisted that Republicans — some of whose votes were needed to meet California’s unusual two-thirds vote requirement for new revenues (only a majority is needed for tax cuts and special breaks, of which there have been many) — would go along with a tax hike to avoid cuts she didn’t want to make in the aftermath of expanding spending during the dot-com boom-turned-bust.
Why would they go along? They would have to, she insisted.
But they didn’t. Magical thinking did not suffice and the state’s structural deficit grew. …
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said this morning that the U.S. Armed Forces continues to plan further ways to try to halt the violence in Syria and will be ready if needed. The veteran California political figure has put those sedate days running the CIA behind.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 11:20 AM Pacific, he welcomes the national college football champion University of Alabama Crimson Tide to the White House to honor their 14th championship, in an event on the South Lawn.
Next year, I expect Obama to be welcoming the University of Southern California Trojans.
At 1:20 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The W Hotel.
While Obama pushed his now well-honed economic themes in Midwestern battleground states — and baited Mitt Romney by noting that he “wasn’t born with a silver spoon his my mouth” — his administration grapples with the latest major embarrassment in Afghanistan.
Despite Pentagon efforts to convince the paper not to publish, pictures surfaced in the Los Angeles Times of US soldiers posing with trophies, in this case the body parts of Taliban attackers who blew themselves up.
I’m told this is not uncommon, and hardly an isolated instance. The difference this time is that a soldier provided the photos to try to get the practice stopped.
US commanders had better get what seems to be a serious and widespread discipline problem under control.
To be fair, the problem is understandable.
This is a war that has dragged on and on, with those who grasp it concerned that it is akin to building castles in the sand.
Less metaphorically, our troops are resented, the early sense of Afghan welcome now largely absent. It’s a foreign culture for our people, one that is physically challenging due to the altitude and weather, with potential peril around most corners.
And the enemy is not afraid to sacrifice their lives. Indeed, they are frequently all too happy to do so.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai today called on the US to speed up its withdrawal, still scheduled for the end of 2014.
Australia, at the beginning of the week, before the photos emerged, announced that it will pull out next year.
And it’s not as though Australia is not a staunch US ally. Darwin, Australia will serve as a dual base for Australian and US naval and ground forces, as announced late last year as part of the Obama Administration’s planned geopolitical transition to a Pacific focus.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
The virulent right-winger who killed 77 people in Norway told a court in Oslo today that his shooting rampage was inspired by a computer game. Anders Behring Breivik told prosecutors his main target was former Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, whom he planned to behead. Brundtland, now UN special envoy on climate change, is partnering with former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Sustainia virtual world project, as reported on NWN last month.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
The Service Employees union gave $1 million to Brown’s November revenue initiative.
That brings the campaign’s fundraising total to date to more than $11 million.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** FIRST WEEK: A RAGGED START, OBAMA’S BIGGER PROBLEMS.It was an interesting first week in the general election campaign. After Rick Santorum’s sudden withdrawal essentially handed the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, on the 100th anniversary of Titanic setting sail on its fateful voyage, President Barack Obama had a mostly good week. But the big flap over foolhardy comments by a Democratic lobbyist on a cable chat show demonstrated alarmingly, again, how debate can be derailed by trivial pursuits even in the face of far more consequential issues. And though the domestic dynamics of the campaign — economic fairness and women’s rights — mostly favored Obama, geopolitical crises that could seriously damage Obama’s presidency loomed very large. … From my April 14th essay.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES. … From my April 10th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Space shuttle Discovery arrived at its new home at Smithsonian’s Udvar-Hazy Center in Northern Virginia early today. Thousands of spectators and many astronauts attended the celebration marking the shuttle’s retirement.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $68 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $12 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta today issued a formal apology for US troops posing with trophy body parts in Afghanistan. The veteran California political figure is getting rather practiced at issuing apologies for embarrassments in the Afghan War.
** QUICK HITS.Heads are rolling in the Secret Service scandal which broke over the weekend. We’ll see what sort of measures are taken in Afghanistan to improve discipline in the wake of the repeated embarrassments there. … Sacramento Mayor and former NBA star Kevin Johnson, a Democrat, endorsed independent Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher today for mayor of San Diego. Johnson picked Fletcher, the former Republican rising star, over a fellow Democrat, Congressman Bob Filner. … The Service Employees union gave $1 million to Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative. That brings the campaign’s fundraising total to date to more than $11 million. …
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE PERSISTENCE OF TUNNEL VISION.
** JERRY-RIGGING: RIDING THE RAILS. Following a negative report from the Legislative Analyst Office, which merely repeated the obvious that funding for the entire long-range project is not secure, late yesterday, Governor Jerry Brown’s new high-speed rail chief, Dan Richard, testified today before a pair of legislative committees holding hearings on the project’s proposed start later this year.
The project has some $3.3 billion in federal funds and some $10 billion in approved bond funding, more than enough to make a strong start on the long-range project.
Brian Weatherford, an analyst who wrote the report criticizing the latest funding proposal, said lawmakers are being asked to approve funding “while some of the details still aren’t worked out, which increases the risk.”
Richard countered that the report only looked at the continuing risks of building a 520-mile system linking Northern and Southern California, and failed to consider the state’s infrastructure needs in the coming years.
“There is a risk that what we have to do to maintain mobility will cost more. I only ask that we balance those risks,” he said.
The LAO report makes the obvious mistake of proceeding from the premise that a reactionary Congress will be in place for decades to come.
It’s only the advent of the Republican House in elections held little more than a year ago that put a serious crimp in federal support for the project. But since then, Tea Party Republicans and their allies in the old energy economy — and, hey, just maybe, the order of that should be reversed — have shot down the Obama Administration’s high-speed rail projects everywhere but California.
This is a struggle that has taken place, on and off, for decades, as the rest of the advanced industrial world moved ahead with rail.
Actually, and quite ironically, you don’t have to look much farther than the crowning infrastructural achievement of the old energy economy to see what Richard is talking about.
That’s the Interstate Highway System, naturally. The advent of freeway-oriented transit was key for killing off the rail approach and for driving sprawl development patterns.
But it was originally supposed to be completed in 12 years. In the end, it took three times as long, at five times the cost projected in 1956 when the massive project began.
President Dwight Eisenhower had wanted to finance the project with bonds paid off from the proceeds of gasoline taxes, which had gone directly to the treasury. Congress instead decided to go with a pay-as-you-go approach.
Oops.
The point being that the course of infrastructure development frequently does not run very smoothly.
Knowing some history helps in good public policy analysis.
Today at a NATO conference in Brussels, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton insisted that things are actually going well in Afghanistan, while Defense Secretary Leon Panetta apologized for the latest big embarrassment there, newly published photos showing American soldiers posing with the body parts of Taliban attackers.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Ohio, and Michigan.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then flew on Air Force One to Cleveland, Ohio.
At 10:15 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Cleveland, Ohio.
At 10:55 AM Pacific, Obama holds a roundtable with unemployed workers who are students in Lorain County Community College job training programs at Lorain County Community College.
At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the economy at Lorain County Community College.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama departs Cleveland on Air Force One en route Detroit, Michigan.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Detroit.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a campaign event in the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Michigan.
At 4:50 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a campaign event at a private residence in Bingham Farms, Michigan.
While Obama pushes his now well-honed economic themes in Midwestern battleground states, his administration grapples with yet another major embarrassment in Afghanistan.
Pictures have surfaced of US soldiers posing with trophies, in this case the body parts of Taliban attackers who blew themselves up.
Not surprisingly, this is a fresh source of outrage for Afghans, who are already outraged with the long and widespread US presence in their country.
US commanders had better get what seems to be a serious and widespread discipline problem under control.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown, speaking yesterday at a California Medical Association legislative conference, said that he expects the state’s budget deficit to be a billion or more higher next month than the $9 billion he projected it at in his January budget proposal. Less money is coming in and more money is being spent than forecast.
And legislative Democrats balk, as they have so hopefully for years now — with Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis before him — at his latest budget cuts.
As the legislature begins hearings on the massive and long-range high-speed rail project, Brown has a report issued late yesterday by the Legislative Analyst Office to contend with.
I’ll have more to say about this, but the short form is that the report — which is very brief, mostly consisting of a reiteration of the project with maps and charts — urges that the legislature not move forward with major construction activities until the project’s entire funding is assured. Since this is a project that will take decades to do, and this is an old objection, the report seems fairly superfluous.
It makes the mistake of assuming that a reactionary Congress will be in place for decades to come. When in reality it was just a few years ago that major federal funds were enacted to fund the first phase of the program.
Had the 2010 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives gone differently, the objection would be irrelevant.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. … From my April 17th essay.
** FIRST WEEK: A RAGGED START, OBAMA’S BIGGER PROBLEMS.It was an interesting first week in the general election campaign. After Rick Santorum’s sudden withdrawal essentially handed the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, on the 100th anniversary of Titanic setting sail on its fateful voyage, President Barack Obama had a mostly good week. But the big flap over foolhardy comments by a Democratic lobbyist on a cable chat show demonstrated alarmingly, again, how debate can be derailed by trivial pursuits even in the face of far more consequential issues. And though the domestic dynamics of the campaign — economic fairness and women’s rights — mostly favored Obama, geopolitical crises that could seriously damage Obama’s presidency loomed very large. … From my April 14th essay.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES. … From my April 10th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The International Energy Agency’s latest forecast for oil consumption growth is virtually unchanged from last month. Increased output from OPEC coupled with sluggish demand could pull down prices. The agency said in its monthly report that there had potentially been a rise in global oil stocks of one million barrels per day over the last quarter, and the impact on prices had not yet been fully realized.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $103 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The Taliban assault on the heavily defended Afghan capital of Kabul over the weekend went on for nearly a day and exposed, once again, major security problems as it brought the city to a near standstill.
** QUICK HITS. Because it’s never to early to think about the presidential race after the one going on now.Public Policy Polling has numbers for potential candidates in both parties for their respective 2016 presidential nominations. … On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton in an absolute runaway over Joe Biden. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush. … Governor Jerry Brown, speaking this afternoon at a California Medical Association legislative conference, said that he expects the state’s budget deficit to be a billion or more higher next month than the $9 billion he projected it at in his January budget proposal. Less money is coming in and more money is being spent than forecast. And legislative Democrats balk, as they have so hopefully for years now, at his latest budget cuts. … This morning Brown identified over 700 state bureaucratic reports currently required that he wants eliminated to save time and duplicative effort. Nearly 400 of them require legislative action.
** IF IT’S NOT ONE THING …
No sooner does President Barack Obama find himself confronted with several significant negative developments in geopolitical crises, and get past a day of campaign time consumed by a foolhardy Democratic lobbyist’s comments about Ann Romney, then he has some new problems.
Over the weekend, Obama’s time at the Summit of the Americas in Colombia was overshadowed by a still emerging crisis involving Secret Service and US military personnel drinking and carousing with prostitutes while supposedly seeing to presidential security in advance of his arrival.
Then the Taliban hit hard, in multiple locations, in Kabul, demonstrating that Afghanistan’s capital city is anything but secure despite all the forces concentrated there.
The Secret Service scandal isn’t Obama’s fault, but it is a big distraction. It’s also another sign that there are some discipline problems there, more than two years after problems involving self-promoting reality TV show contestant gate crashers getting into Obama’s first state dinner.
The latest sign of big crisis in Afghanistan is something Obama is responsible for, since it is only the latest indictment of his policy there.
I may have written about the AfPak problems one or two times over the past few years.
While Obama struggles with all this, including the crises I wrote about in the “First Week” piece linked below, back in California politics Governor Jerry Brown is pushing hard for his November revenue initiative.
He and the Democratic Party are pulling out the stops to qualify the initiative and give it a straight shot in the November election. And it seems to be going well.
But heiress Molly Munger, who seems intent in having her face in the dictionary next to the world “stubborn,” keeps pushing for her zombie initiative, which would raise income taxes on most everyone in the state to fund schools while doing very little to deal with the state’s structural budget deficit.
It’s a very rich person’s pet project, and she and her advisors — who don’t get paid to tell her to stop wasting her money and our time — have launched flights of TV ads trying to promote the initiative in the LA and SF Bay Area media markets.
It’s not a very on-point ad, but I won’t get into why that is. No sense providing a useful critique.
But it’s quite silly to imagine that an initiative that starts out down, 64-32, is going to turn that around. Especially one that raises everyone’s taxes.
** MAD MEN: ROUNDING SOME HAIRPIN PLOT CURVES.This week’s Mad Men offered up a much more insular episode, though the sense of decay and decline in New York which I wrote about earlier in the season is evident. The American studies social themes, aside from the trademark dissatisfaction with success and a sense of impending change, are absent. As always, there be some spoilers ahead.
Incidentally, you can see all my Mad Men pieces, going back to 2009, here in The Mad Men File.
Relying heavily on humor, some of it in forced circumstance, and some switchback plotting, “Signal 30″ (the title refers to a drivers ed film endured by Pete Campbell, at last learning to drive, the better to help his new suburban family) focuses on some characters. The action revolves around a potential new client, Jaguar, and a dinner party at Pete’s new Connecticut home.
Don Draper, successfully roped in by Pete’s persistently smart wife Trudy, and Megan attend a dinner party at the Campbells with fellow Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce exec Ken Cosgrove and his wealthy and smart wife Cynthia.
There the genre geek references flow freely. Pete fixed the plumbing before the party just well enough to have it blow up, requiring Don to spring into action, losing his cape, er, atrocious sport coat (forced on him by now shaky fashion maven Megan) and dress shirt, spurring admiring “Superman” references from the ladies. Actor Jon Hamm was much talked about to star in the new Superman, which went in a younger direction. …
President Barack Obama is asking Congress for help in policing oil markets to be on the lookout for price manipulation by speculators. Obama says the country can’t have some speculators reap millions while consumers suffer from high gas prices.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then met with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Vice President Joe Biden in the Oval Office.
At 1:50 PM Pacific, Obama honors Tony Stewart’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Championship on the South Lawn.
Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises involving the Arab Awakening, Iran and Israel, Iraq, AfPak, and North Korea.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
At 12:15 PM, Brown delivers remarks at the California Medical Association’s 38th Annual Legislative Leadership Conference
At 1:15 PM, he delivers remarks at State Farm’s Legislative Day.
Both events take place at the Sacramento Convention Center, with the CMA in the main ballroom and State Farm in a nearby exhibit hall.
Brown will likely talk about slowness in the legislature in dealing with looming budget problems.
** FIRST WEEK: A RAGGED START, OBAMA’S BIGGER PROBLEMS.It was an interesting first week in the general election campaign. After Rick Santorum’s sudden withdrawal essentially handed the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, on the 100th anniversary of Titanic setting sail on its fateful voyage, President Barack Obama had a mostly good week. But the big flap over foolhardy comments by a Democratic lobbyist on a cable chat show demonstrated alarmingly, again, how debate can be derailed by trivial pursuits even in the face of far more consequential issues. And though the domestic dynamics of the campaign — economic fairness and women’s rights — mostly favored Obama, geopolitical crises that could seriously damage Obama’s presidency loomed very large. … From my April 14th essay.
** MAD MEN‘s MASTER CLASS IN AMERICAN STUDIES ROLLS ON TO SOME MYSTERY DATES.Well, that was one of the spookier Mad Men episodes, complete with not one but two dream sequences. As always, there be some spoilers ahead discussing this episode, the aptly titled “Mystery Date.”
The horizon of the future, i.e., the later ’60s, is getting much darker, and a lot closer. New York City has slid past its peak, at which it glittered as the series began. Things increasingly don’t work, we’re seeing some people who look rather unkempt. And they’re not the hippies, because those folks have yet to arrive. … From my April 10th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The space shuttle Discovery makes one final flight, on top of a Boeing 747, flying low and slow this morning over much of Washington, D.C. The sight drew masses of people looking to the skies at places like the National Mall.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer from the Russia Today channel. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the state-run channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 per barrel from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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