With his “independent” super PAC spending another fortune savaging a rival, this time Rick Santorum, as seen in this new ad, Mitt Romney and his de facto ally Ron Paul today scuttled the only remaining Super Tuesday primary debate.
** QUICK HITS. The UN General Assembly today overwhelmingly adopted a resolution advanced by the Arab League calling for a ceasefire in Syria and transition to democratic rule away from the Assad regime. The vote was 137 to 12, with 17 abstentions, some of which later complained about problems casting a vote. China and Russia voted no, joined by North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and a few others. The resolution is non-binding, but ratchets up pressure and further isolates the Assad regime and its small band of supporters, who don’t want any humanitarian intervention in their rather dodgy internal affairs. … The UN vote could further legitimate a move endorsed by the Arab League for its members to provide arms to the Syrian rebels, a dangerous situation which could lead to de facto proxy war. … In California politics, state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said today that it’s time for tax hike advocates to get behind Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative. He directly contradicted heiress Molly Munger’s assertions that polling shows her measure, which would raise income taxes on most all Californians, stands a good chance of passage. It’s also a message from a top Democratic leader to the two smaller unions, California Federation of Teachers and California Nurses Association, pushing the “Millionaire’s Tax.” …
As a result, the last debate before the big showdowns on March 6th will be on February 22nd in Arizona, nearly a week before the Arizona and Michigan primaries.
Here’s the statement from CNN:
“Mitt Romney and Ron Paul told the Georgia Republican Party, Ohio Republican Party and CNN Thursday that they will not participate in the March 1 Republican presidential primary debate,” CNN said in a statement. “Without full participation of all four candidates, CNN will not move forward with the Super Tuesday debate. However, next week, CNN and the Arizona Republican Party will host all four leading contenders for the GOP nomination. That debate will be held in Mesa, Arizona on February 22 and will be moderated by CNN’s John King.”
A debate set for the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California on March 5th also earlier fell by the wayside.
I’m told that the Romney camp was against debating there as well.
Clearly, Romney is doing everything he can to avoid debates, which were his friend only so long as no one challenged him, as he struggles to right his campaign after several embarrassing big losses to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.
Iran has unveiled major developments in nuclear technology according to Iranian based media reports, but says it is also ready for talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Germany. Russia has expressed concern about the progress in Iran’s nuclear program but claims no hard evidence of military aims.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, is pushing for war with Iran.
I’m referring, of course, to Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. Not the neo-isolationist Ron Paul, who is about as likely to be the Republican nominee for president as I am. He is so far off the reservation that Santorum and Gingrich passed on the opportunity to guarantee a fourth straight Romney defeat, in the little-attended Maine caucuses, by tossing some support to Paul. The idea of him succeeding, even in this minor way, is simply anathema to them.
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran.
If we can’t control what happens in Iraq, a nation which we conquered for a time, we’re not very well going to control what happens in Iran, a more formidable opponent which, unlike Saddam’s Iraq, really does have international terrorist assets.
Pushing such a war is an obviously very dangerous idea. But it’s treated rather blithely in a stenographic US media, with little attention to its substance or peril. Even in the record number of Republican debates, in which media moderators have allowed candidates to mouth their shallow talking points without any substantive discussion.
While Iran’s growing role in the region is alarming to many Arab states and beyond, the underlying dynamic is principally Iran vs. Israel, two governments presently controlled by religionists. One which may well have a Mahdi complex, another which may well have a Masada complex. …
House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi says her party is mostly satisfied with a bill extending payroll tax cuts and benefits for the unemployed. Speaker John Boehner says he supports the deal, but doesn’t think it’ll help the economy much. So why support the legislation?
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California.
Obama had two highly successful fundraisers last night in Los Angeles. More to follow in an upcoming piece.
Obama delivered remarks at another fundraiser this morning at a private residence in Corona del Mar near Newport Beach in Orange County.
At 11:45 AM Pacific, he departs Los Angeles on Air Force One en route San Francisco.
At 12:50 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at San Francisco International Airport.
He then goes to a private luncheon at an undisclosed location with key supporters.
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at the San Francisco Intercontinental Hotel.
At 7:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence in San Francisco.
Obama is getting good news in the form of what is essentially a Republican surrender on the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance extensions.
The very unpopular Republican House and Senate leadership have given in, agreeing to extend the payroll tax cuts till the end of the year without offsetting budget cuts, and also agreeing to extend unenmployment insurance with a few fiscal maneuvers.
In addition, new unemployment filings have hit a four-year low.
Meanwhile, the Republican presidential race continues in its state of disarray.
Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in Ohio and Michigan, the latter state being the one which Romney’s father George served as a very popular major car company CEO and governor of the state while Romney himself was growing up.
And Newt Gingrich says he has raised $2 million in his California fundraising swing, which he is wrapping up today in Beverly Hills.
Romney and his “independent” super PAC are attacking Santorum as “the ultimate Washington insider.”
Considering that Santorum was actually a rather odd duck Christian fundamentalist neocon senator, if he’s the ultimate Washington insider then I am the former King of Siam.
This is one of the big problems with Romney. His statements are too often simply preposterous.
The news is less good for Obama abroad.
Saudi Arabia is presenting a UN General Assembly resolution today calling for a ceasefire in Syria and transition to democracy and away from the Assad regime.
While this goes on, the Arab League has agreed to encourage its members to arm the Syrian opposition.
This could well lead not only to full-on civil war but also to de facto proxy war between great powers.
At the same time, the drift to war with Iran continues. (See the essay linked above.)
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
While on the second leg of his tour of the United States, Xi Jingping, China’s vice president and presumptive next leader, revealed some surprising ties to the state of Iowa.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.
Brown is very involved with the visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who later this year will become general secretary of the ruling Chinese Communist Party and next year is slated to become president of the People’s Republic of China.
At 1:30 PM, Brown, First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa greet Vice President Xi on the tarmac of Los Angeles International Airport.
At 2:10 PM, they will tour the China Shipping Terminal at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro.
They will hold private meetings.
On Friday, Brown holds an extensive number of evens with Vice President Xi.
At 9 AM, Brown attends the China/US Economic Forum at the J.W. Marriott at LA Live in downtown Los Angeles.
Brown will speak at 10:40 AM.
At 12 noon, Brown and others host Vice President Xi at a private luncheon at the J.W. Marriott.
Brown delivers introductory remarks at 12:45 PM.
At 3:30 PM, Brown hosts the U.S. and Chinese Governors’ Round Table with Vice President Xi at the Walt Disney Concert Hall in downtown LA.
The state Senate Rules Committee yesterday considered some Brown appointees in confirmation hearings.
One, Major General David Baldwin, who Brown appointed to command the California National Guard as its adjutant general, was confirmed on a unanimous vote and sent on to the full Senate despite opposition from old guard elements of the Guard..
His appointment was opposed by Brigadier General Charlotte Miller, ousted when Baldwin took command of the troubled state national guard last year. The old guard of the Guard has come under fire for sweetheart self-dealings.
Also up for his confirmation hearing was California Environmental Protection Agency Secretary Matt Rodriquez, who had smooth sailing.
Brown’s state finance officials agreed today with an earlier assessment from state Controller John Chiang that January’s revenues were over half a billion less than expected.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $68 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $12 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Speaking today at Master Lock in Wisconsin prior to coming to California for some major fundraising, President Barack Obama called for tax cuts for American manufacturers and higher taxes for companies that move overseas as he promotes homegrown manufacturing as a key component of economic revival.
** QUICK HITS.Now trailing Rick Santorum in Ohio as well as Michigan, where his father was the state’s governor, Mitt Romney’s super PAC is unleashing new TV ads attacking Santorum as “The Ultimate Washington Insider.” If the ultra-rightist Christian fundamentalist Santorum is the ultimate Beltway insider, I’m the former King of Siam. … After greeting him at the airport, Governor Jerry Brown will appear at several events and meetings on Thursday and Friday in and around Los Angeles with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who will take over the top spots in the PRC in 2012 and 2013. More to follow. … Brown’s state finance officials agreed today with an earlier assessment from state Controller John Chiang that January’s revenues were over half a billion less than expected. … In what is shaping up to be another lackluster California political convention next week, ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (whose backing for Romney netted him a distant third in the Minnesota caucuses) will appear at a state Republican convention whose biggest speaker is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, now on a Golden State fundraising tour.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … BEWARE THE HYSTERICS.
** NEW POLL: AMERICANS STILL UNHAPPY WITH WORLD POSITION, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE 2008. Ever since Americans finally and definitively soured on the Iraq War and the Afghan War in 2008, voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the US role in the world.
This is one major reason why most believe that China has become the world’s leading economic power.
It will, eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet.
A new Gallup Poll survey shows that dissatisfaction with the US role in the world is somewhat less than it was at the tail end of the Bush/Cheney Administration, but still a net negative.
But they do now believe that the current administration, unlike its predecessor, is viewed positively by most of the world.
Obama is viewed more highly on this score than not only Bush, but also Bill Clinton.
Americans continue to express much greater dissatisfaction than satisfaction with the United States’ position in the world, and their views have improved little since hitting a low point in 2008. …
From 2000-2003, Americans were generally satisfied with the position of the U.S. in the world. That changed in early 2004, nearly a year into the Iraq war, and opinions continued to grow more negative through February 2008, when 30% were satisfied. Since then, the United States has elected a new president and has ended its mission in Iraq, but continues to fight a war in Afghanistan and endure a sluggish economy. Further, Americans believe China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power. …
Americans, however, are not universally negative about the United States’ world standing. Currently, they believe that the United States rates favorably (53%) rather than unfavorably (46%) in the eyes of the world, the most positive assessment since 2004. From 2005-2009, more Americans were inclined to believe the world viewed the United States negatively than positively, a shift from the strongly net positive views of 2000-2004.
Also, by 51% to 44%, Americans continue to believe that other world leaders respect President Obama.
Although the 51% who think other leaders respect Obama is a personal low for the president, it still compares favorably to his immediate predecessors’ ratings. Apart from more positive ratings early in his presidency, especially after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Americans were inclined to believe world leaders did not respect President George W. Bush. And on two occasions — in 1994 and 2000 — only as many as 44% of Americans thought world leaders respected President Bill Clinton. …
Iranian patrol boats and aircraft shadow the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group in the Arabian Gulf.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Wisconsin, and California
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then departed the White House on Marine One for Joint Base Andrews, where he boarded Air Force One.
Obama then departed for Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Upon his arrival in Milwaukee, Obama headed to Master Lock, which he then toured and held a brief meeting with workers.
Obama then delivered remarks at Master Lock on his theme of building an American economy that lasts.
At 12:05 PM Pacific, Obama departs Milwaukee, Wisconsin on Air Force One en route Los Angeles, California.
AT 4 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Los Angeles.
At 6:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence in LA.
At 7:50 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at another fundraiser at a private residence in LA.
Foo Fighters will play at one of these private events.
Obama holds fundraisers elsewhere in California on this trip.
I’m told that the fundraising goal for the entire California trip was reached in the LA events alone.
I’ll have more on this.
Obama is getting good news in the form of what is essentially a Republican surrender on the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance extensions.
The very unpopular Republican House and Senate leadership are giving in, agreeing to extend the payroll tax cuts till the end of the year without offsetting budget cuts, and also agreeing to extend unenmployment insurance with a few fiscal maneuvers.
Chalk this up as a win for the rising Obama, and as a recognition of reality by Republicans, who had no good options other than to be seen as clearly burning down the house in order to spite the president and deny help to the economy.
While objective conditions for Obama improve, the Republican presidential race continues in its state of disarray.
Michigan, along with Arizona, where Romney may still be ahead, votes on February 28th.
The news is less good for Obama abroad.
Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hosted Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who will take over the top spots in the PRC this year and the next, yesterday at a State Department luncheon. Biden made some very pointed comments about Chinese trade and geopolitical practices in his toast.
Iran is shadowing US Navy forces operating in the Arabian Gulf, which Iran calls the Persian Gulf, with missile boats and aircraft.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today announced that Iran has brought a new generation of centrifuge online and has begun enriching its uranium stores on its own. Not to weapons grade. Not yet.
It also threatened to cut off oil supplies immediately to European nations which have agreed to embargo Iranian oil by the end of June.
Meanwhile, Iran’s ally Syria continues its assault on centers of protest against the Assad regime.
President Hafez al-Assad is adding window dressing to his abandoned pledges of peace by scheduling a referendum on a new constitution, while the UN General Assembly schedules a session to see if it can achieve what the UN Security Council failed to do with Russia and China’s dual veto.
Saudi Arabia will present a resolution on Thursday calling for a ceasefire in Syria and transition to democracy and away from the Assad regime.
While this goes on, the Arab League has agreed to encourage its members to arm the Syrian opposition.
Full-on civil war, and proxy war of outside powers, are looming prospects for Syria.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Not surprisingly, the California Public Employment Retirement System, whose board is controlled by organized public employee and retiree interests and which has consistently downplayed its problems — including major investment scandals involving insider placement agents — said in a report late yesterday that Brown’s public pension reform plan would cost workers more money but result in little to no real savings.
I’m not following the logic on that, but this is not my field.
The state Senate Rules Committee today considers some Brown appointees in confirmation hearings.
One is Brigadier General David S. Baldwin, who Brown appointed to command the California National Guard as its adjutant general.
His appointment is opposed by Brigadier General Charlotte Miller, ousted when Baldwin took command of the troubled state national guard last year. The old guard of the Guard has come under fire for sweetheart self-dealings. She will reportedly testify against Baldwin’s confirmation.
Also up for his confirmation hearing is California Environmental Protection Agency Secretary Matt Rodriquez, another Brown appointee.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $68 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $12 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama met today with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, slated to be China’s next leader.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … BEWARE THE HYSTERICS.
** TEEING UP TUESDAY, AND BEYOND.
An intriguing week is underway in presidential politics, with the Republican race, now in thorough disarray, in a something of a lull and President Barack Obama dealing with major geopolitical crises as he pushes congressional Republicans to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance.
And in California politics, a quieter week, as last weekend’s California Democratic Party convention passed uneventfully and Governor Jerry Brown continues working on his November revenue initiative, his proposed state budget, public pension reform, and adjustments to the state’s high-speed rail program. The Tea Party right and representatives of the old energy economy have succeeded in blocking the Obama Administration’s drive for high-speed rail everywhere else. But not in California, where it’s been a priority since before the election of Obama.
It’s finally obvious to most of the media the Mitt Romney is an ever evitable “inevitable” sort of presidential candidate. Which might suggest it’s time to call him inevitable again.
But that’s a ways off.
Meanwhile, as I reported here NWN on Saturday, Rick Santorum is surging into the lead in national polling. Among Republicans, that is. As the Republican disarray deepens and fighting over who is a true right-winger intensifies, Obama is gaining advantage in the polls.
But this week there is something of a lull. The next serious action comes with a Republican debate on February 22nd, and primaries on February 28th in Michigan and Arizona. Santorum looks to mount a serious challenge in Michigan, where Romney’s father ran a major car company and was a popular governor, but where Romney’s financier persona is problematic.
In the slow-rolling, low-turnout Maine Republican presidential caucuses, that began a week earlier and ended this past Saturday evening — well, except for the town caucuses that have yet to occur, showing how truly odd this election is — Mitt Romney finished first with 39% of the vote to Ron Paul’s 36%.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, neither of whom campaigned there, finished far back with 18% and 6%, respectively. There was something just over 5000 total votes cast in this awe-inspiring exercise in democracy.
The libertarian icon Paul seemed poised for an upset there, in what was almost certainly his best ever chance to actually win a state. Romney and company, fearing a fourth straight loss, to the oddball Paul, no less, rolled into Maine again yesterday for a series of candidate events Friday and Saturday while family members fanned out across the state.
The result? A 194-vote edge over Paul, whose backers at his election night party in Portland, Maine reacted with anger and disbelief at the outcome.
I’m no fan of Brother Paul and his ideological zealots, but the outcome does seem odd. Only 83% of the caucuses have been held so far. And one big one, which Paul supporters said they expected to dominate, was canceled Saturday. Because of weather, according to the state party leaders. And there are reportedly town caucuses that have been held whose results have not been counted by the Romney-backing Maine party leadership. This looks like yet another gong show state Republican Party caucus, following in the notorious footsteps of Iowa and Nevada.
You might ask why Santorum and Gingrich didn’t throw their support to Paul, guaranteeing another Romney loss. Paul is so far off the Republican reservation on national security policy that the idea of him succeeding is simply anathema to them. Which is short-term thinking on their part, since he’s already passed his high-water mark.
Romney managed to finish first in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll on Saturday. Which, considering how unpopular he seemed to be with most participants according to most media reports, again points up how silly straw polls are. How did he manage it? By shipping in college students and paying for their votes.
While the GOP’s shenanigans play out, Obama has major geopolitical crises to contend with, as well as a week devoted to his budget proposal and economic themes.
On Monday, Obama unveiled a budget that would taxes on the rich, promotes infrastructure programs, and largely eschews deficit reduction.
The plan includes funds for a few billion more on R&D on advanced manufacturing, $476 billion on transportation and other infrastructure projects, $350 billion on jobs programs, and $60 billion for schools and the securing of jobs for public safety officers and teachers.
The deficit would increase under the proposed Obama budget, which is obviously pitched to a sense that last year’s frightening stall in the economy shattered an elite consensus for deficit reduction as the paramount concern in a sluggish economy.
Congressional Republicans have apparently caved on the payroll tax cut extension, now calling for 10 months of “unfunded,” i.e., without accompanying budget cuts or tax hikes, cuts for 160 million Americans. But the extension of unemployment insurance is unclear.
Obama and his administration take the measure today of China’s heir apparent, current Vice President. Xi Jinping. China, which most Americans inaccurately believe is the world’s leading power (see last week’s NWN discussion of this misperception, a misperception for now), is increasingly a rival as well as a financial and trading partner.
The US and China have a symbiotic relationship; the US needs China’s money and China needs America’s markets. But Obama and many critics who want sharper action is urging China to stop undercutting US industry.
Which would all be complex enough if Obama did not not only the usual AfPak problems to deal with but also the major crises with Syria and with Iran and Israel.
In Syria, with China and Russia having vetoed a UN Security Council resolution backed by the other 13 members, the Assad regime continues attacking centers of protest against it. There is now a great deal of sentiment in Gulf Arab states and elsewhere for shipping arms to the Syrian rebels. And in this country, John McCain and others are talking up a US role in this. Which would place the US directly at loggerheads with Syria and its remaining allies.
Then there are Iran and Israel. Not only are there the ongoing threats by Iran to block the critical oil choke point in the Strait of Hormuz and by Israel to launch air strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, now there is a further ratcheting up of the intelligence war between Iran and Israel. Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated and missile centers bombed.
Now there are claimed Iranian attacks on Israeli personnel in Delhi, Tblisi, and Bangkok, the respective capitals of India, Georgia, and Thailand. The balloon is not yet up. But it is getting filled.
As Obama deals with all this, he prepares for journeys Wednesday to the Midwestern battleground state of Wisconsin to push his economic revival that lasts / Made in America themes, followed by Thursday and Friday trips to California for major fundraisers in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area followed by a trip to Seattle for more economic revival messaging and a fundraiser.
In comparison to this, Jerry Brown, dealing with California’s chronic fiscal crises and dysfunctional political culture, has the plush life.
Brown appeared this past Saturday at the annual California Democratic Party convention in San Diego. He spoke at a labor breakfast, then delivered a trademark address, sans text, to the convention’s delegates, criticizing “conventional, status quo” thinking.
Brown talked up California’s historic leadership role, especially with regard to innovation and diversity.
He spoke of the excitement of being present for the LA unveiling the other night of Tesla’s latest electric vehicle, noting that the non-polluting SUV is faster than a Porsche. In keeping with his green tech theme, he talked up the state’s pioneering renewable energy efforts, which he pioneered during his first go-round as governor, former chief of staff Gray Davis revived, and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger enlarged into a signature issue.
He also talked up jobs and education reform.
Brown strongly defended high-speed rail, noting that it won’t be cheap but it is cheaper, and better, than the conventional, old energy economy alternatives in a growing state in which Obama Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood recently spent the better part of a week coordinating with local and state officials and community leaders.
And he spoke of the Dream Act, which he signed into law, which will allow aid to the children of all immigrants, legal or not, who go to college.
He also talked of the need to raise revenue, touching briefly on his own November initiative and sidestepping any controversy about two potentially competing initiatives.
Brown was undoubtedly mindful that the convention, which greeted self-avowed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders’ keynote last year with a rapturous response — when Brown skipped following minor surgery — was filled with activists whose version of red meat is a doppelganger to their market-loving Republican activist counterparts.
And that activists are excited about the “Millionaire’s Tax” initiative, pushed by the smaller teachers union and a coalition of activist groups, which would ratchet up taxes higher than his own proposal on the wealthy, and do it permanently.
“Marching orders,” he said, will be forthcoming, leaving it at that, as he talked of the need to deal with heightened inequality in wealth and income.
Brown got a strong reaction from the delegates, most of whom were waving “We’re With Jerry” signs (backed with “Fighting for California”) as he arrived and spoke, then departed, saying little, as planned, to a diminished press contingent about any dueling initiatives storyline, or anything else.
Aside from some fierce local party endorsement fights, discussed some here on NWN last week, and which delivered nothing dramatic in the way of developments, the convention was strictly routine.
Now Brown’s back working behind the scenes on his priorities.
And he will welcome China’s vice president and future president, Xi Jinping, to Los Angeles on Thursday.
As international pressure on Iran mounts, Russia’s military says it sees the probability of a Western strike against the Islamic Republic as being high. Concerns of pending military action grew after Israel blamed Tehran for two bomb attacks on its diplomatic staff on Monday.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then delivered remarks in the South Court Auditorium to push Congress to act to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance.
South Court Auditorium
Following that, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden held a meeting with Vice President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in the Oval Office.
Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton then hosted a lunch in honor of Vice President Xi at the State Department.
Pooled Press
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama is interviewed by regional television outlets in the Diplomatic Room.
At 1:45 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown issued this statement today after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Rating Services shifted California’s credit ratings outlook from stable to positive:
“The fact that California’s ratings outlook has shifted from negative to positive in less than a year is a powerful vote of confidence in our state. Let’s keep the momentum going.”
S&P, one of the big three credit rating agencies, announced today that it is shifting California’s ratings outlook from stable to positive, saying that California’s state government “is poised for credit improvement – and potentially higher rating – pending its ability to better align its cash performance and budget assumptions.”
Last summer, S&P changed its outlook on California from negative to stable following an on-time adoption of a relatively balanced budget with built-in trigger cuts in the event that revenue forecasts were not met.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon.
Romney, naturally, is doing what he always does.
His new move, having lost three states in Tuesday night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?”
The “outsider” Romney is in Washington Thursday raising money from lobbyists. He’s even designating “Industry Finance Chairs” for the oil and energy, finance, and defense sectors. So much for being an “outsider.” … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Whitney Houston’s body is back in her hometown of Newark before being finally laid to rest. Houston passed away on Saturday afternoon at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. In a last journey befitting a pop idol, the singer’s coffin was transported to New Jersey from Los Angeles by private plane and gold-painted hearse. Her funeral service will be held on Saturday at the Baptist church where she first sang in public.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $101 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $67 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $13 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama urged Congress to extend the payroll tax cut to prevent a tax hike on 160 million Americans.
** MAINE UPDATE: ROMNEY EKES OUT WIN, DASHING PAUL’S BEST HOPE FOR A FIRST PLACE FINISH. In the slow-rolling, low-turnout Maine Republican presidential caucuses, begun last weekend and ended on Saturday evening — well, except for the town caucuses that have yet to occur, showing how truly odd this election is — Mitt Romney finished first with 39% of the vote to Ron Paul’s 36%.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, neither of whom campaigned there, finished far back with 18% and 6%, respectively.
The libertarian icon Paul seemed poised for an upset there, in what was almost certainly his best ever chance to actually win a state. Romney and company, fearing a fourth straight loss, to the oddball Paul, no less, rolled into Maine again yesterday for a series of candidate events Friday and Saturday while family members fanned out across the state.
The result? A 194-vote edge over Paul, whose backers at his election night party in Portland, Maine reacted with anger and disbelief at the outcome.
I’m no fan of Brother Paul and his ideological zealots, but the outcome does seem very odd. Only 83% of the caucuses have been held so far. And one big one, which Paul supporters said they expected to dominate, was canceled today. Because of weather, according to the state party leaders.
This looks like yet another gong show state Republican Party caucus, following in the notorious footsteps of Iowa and Nevada.
You might ask why Santorum and Gingrich didn’t throw their support to Paul, guaranteeing another Romney loss.
Paul is so far off the Republican reservation on national security policy that the idea of him succeeding is simply anathema to them.
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events this weekend.
Obama has a big week ahead.
Next week he unveils his federal budget proposal, awards national arts and humanities medals, journeys to the Midwestern battleground state of Wisconsin to push his economic revival that lasts / Made in America themes, then comes to California for major fundraisers in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area before heading to Seattle for more economic revival messaging and a fundraiser.
Meanwhile, the scuffling in the Republican Party over who takes him on the general election continues.
Sensing danger in Maine’s week-long caucuses that come to an end Saturday night, Mitt Romney threw on several hurriedly scheduled events in his New England home region state to try to stave off Ron Paul, who has been campaigning heavily there of late in search of his first state victory ever.
While that little drama plays out, Rick Santorum has taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in a brand new Public Policy Polling survey taken Thursday and Friday.
Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick
Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP’s newest national poll. He’s at 38% to 23%
for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters
see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more
important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and
Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point
net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has
fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to
only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at
+32 (60/28).
Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate,
especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as
‘very conservative,’ he’s now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich
and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to
24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a
majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich’s continued
presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move
to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in
the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.
On Monday, Obama will unveil a budget that raises taxes on the rich, promotes infrastructure programs, and largely eschews deficit reduction.
The plan will include funds for a few billion more on R&D on advanced manufacturing, $476 billion on transportation and other infrastructure projects, $350 billion on jobs programs, and $60 billion for schools and the securing of jobs for public safety officers and teachers.
The deficit would increase under the proposed Obama budget, which is obviously pitched to a sense that last year’s frightening stall in the economy shattered an elite consensus for deficit reduction as the paramount concern in a sluggish economy.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
Governor Jerry Brown’s theme music for his California Democratic Party convention speech, as it was in his 2010 campaign, is “Let the Day Begin.” Northern California rock band The Call’s 1989 hit is played here in a stand of, naturally, redwood trees.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in San Diego and Northern California.
Brown appeared Saturday morning at the annual California Democratic Party convention in San Diego.
He spoke at a labor breakfast, then delivered a trademark address, sans text, to the convention’s delegates, criticizing “conventional, status quo” thinking.
Brown talked up California’s historic leadership role, especially with regard to innovation and diversity.
He spoke of the excitement of being present for the LA unveiling the other night of Tesla’s latest electric vehicle, noting that the non-polluting SUV is faster than a Porsche. In keeping with his green tech theme, he talked up the state’s pioneering renewable energy efforts, which he pioneered during his first go-round as governor, former chief of staff Gray Davis revived, and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger enlarged into a signature issue.
He also talked up jobs and education reform.
Brown strongly defended high-speed rail, noting that it won’t be cheap but it is cheaper, and better, than the conventional, old energy economy alternatives in a growing state.
And he spoke of the Dream Act, which he signed into law, which will allow aid to the children of all immigrants, legal or not, who go to college.
He also talked of the need to raise revenue, touching briefly on his own November initiative and sidestepping any controversy about two potentially competing initiatives.
Brown is undoubtedly mindful that this convention, which greeted self-avowed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders’ keynote last year with a rapturous response — when Brown skipped following minor surgery — is filled with activists whose version of red meat is a doppelganger to their market-loving Republican activist counterparts.
And that activists are excited about the “Millionaire’s Tax” initiative, pushed by the smaller teachers union and a coalition of activist groups, which would ratchet up taxes higher than his own proposal on the wealthy, and do it permanently.
“Marching orders,” he said, will be forthcoming, leaving it at that, as he talked of the need to deal with heightened inequality in wealth and income.
Brown got a strong reaction from the delegates, most of whom were waving “We’re With Jerry” signs (backed with “Fighting for California”) as he arrived and spoke, then departed, saying little, as planned, to a diminished press contingent about any dueling initiatives storyline, or anything else.
Aside from some fierce local party endorsement fights, discussed some here on NWN during the week, the convention looks fairly routine.
Incidentally, though I’m feeling considerably more agile these days with a new regimen of decades old martial arts, I, uh, re-learned Friday night that popping over the railing to jump from one level of stairs to the next isn’t always a wise thing to do. Jamming my knee is definitely putting a crimp in things.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon.
Romney, naturally, is doing what he always does.
His new move, having lost three states in Tuesday night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?”
The “outsider” Romney is in Washington Thursday raising money from lobbyists. He’s even designating “Industry Finance Chairs” for the oil and energy, finance, and defense sectors. So much for being an “outsider.” … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $98.67 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Billionaire Foster Friess, who is floating Rick Santorum’s campaign with his “independent” super PAC contributions, introduced Santorum today at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference. But first he told this joke, about a conservative, a moderate, and a liberal who walk into a bar, badump, to be greeted by the bartender with “Hi, Mitt!”
** QUICK HITS. Mitt Romney ran into some concerted fire at today’s annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, despite calling himself “severely conservative.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard that term before. … Ron Paul, who won last year’s CPAC straw poll, isn’t there this year. He’s trying to win his first state of the year, up in Maine, where they began caucusing at the beginning of the week and wrap things up on Saturday. … Maine is a state that is inherently open to challengers. On the Democratic side, Gary Hart swept it in 1984 and Jerry Brown won Maine in 1992. … Speaking of California politics, state Controller John Chiang announced today that the state’s revenues lagged in January over 5% below what Brown projected in his new budget. So much for Democratic legislative complaints that Brown’s forecasts were too pessimistic, the better for them to avoid his budget cuts. But why is it happening as the economy improves? … Californian had its all-time best export trade year in 2011, even surpassing the high of 2000 when the economy was still booming. … A federal judge today issued what looks to be the coda to conservative Republican efforts to block the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s new maps, this time the congressional ones, dismissing their lawsuit. …
** NEW SURVEY: AMERICAN NON-EXCEPTIONALISM — THE WORLD’S LEADING ECONOMIC POWER IS … CHINA. A new Gallup Poll survey, taken with the US economy showing more promising signs of partial recovery from the deep pit it occupied in the great global recession has some sobering news.
And they think that will be the case moving into the future, as well.
In fact, the margin by which Americans believe this has gone up, in the face of recovering US economic confidence.
A decade ago, there was no question that Americans viewed America as the leading global economic power, both then and heading into the future.
Intriguingly, younger Americans are by far the most likely to view China as the preeminent economic power.
Over 60% of those under 50 think that way. But of those 65 and up, 50% still think that the US is the leading economic power.
Of course, there is more to global power than GDP, which is another matter entirely, as China’s leaders are clearly very well aware.
Incidentally, in reality, the US IS the world’s leading economic power. Still.
The popular perception is wrong.
Americans believe China is the leading economic power in the world today, by a significant margin over the United States. This is the second consecutive year the majority of Americans have viewed China as economically dominant; previously, China held a smaller lead. By contrast, in 2000, Americans overwhelmingly believed the U.S. was the leading economic power. …
The U.S. economic downturn and the continued expansion of the Chinese economy are the likely factors behind Americans’ belief that China is the world’s top economic power.
Still, the vast majority of Americans name either the U.S. or China as the world’s leading economic power. Relatively few Americans regard Japan (7%), the European Union (3%), India (2%), or Russia (less than 1%) in those terms. Japan has ranked third in recent years, but finished ahead of China in 2000. …
Looking ahead, Americans still expect China to be the leading economic power in 20 years, but by a slightly smaller margin over the United States, 46% to 38%. These opinions, though similar to last year’s, have shifted in the past. In 2000, when the U.S. economy was strong, and in 2009, shortly after Barack Obama took office, more Americans believed the U.S. rather than China would be the top economic power in the future. In 2008, just as the recession was beginning, and in the last two years as the economy has continued to stagnate, a plurality of Americans have thought China would be the top power in the future.
Surging Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum took on President Obama and his policies toward health care and contraception today at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.
In the Wednesday and Thursday night results, it’s Santorum 30% and Romney 30%. Newt Gingrich is at 16% for those two nights, with Ron Paul at 16%.
In the two nights prior to news of Santorum’s victories, Santorum ran well back nationally, with 17% to Romney’s 35% and Gingrich’s 26%, as Paul trails again at 14%.
In other words, Santorum’s support nationally essentially doubled overnight.
Looking at the results from all four nights of this week’s interviewing, Romney is first with 33%, with Santorum 23%, Gingrich 22%, and Paul 15% following along.
But clearly those numbers are now obsolete.
President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign released this video to celebrate the fifth anniversary of his formal announcement of candidacy in Springfield, Illinois.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then signed H.R. 3801 with former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and her husband, former space shuttle commander and Navy Captain Mark Kelly, and Biden in attendance in the Oval Office.
This bill, which cracks down on the use of ultra-light aircraft in smuggling, was the last to be introduced and voted upon by Giffords prior to her resignation from the House in January. Giffords is recovering from the severe brain injury caused by the shocking assassination attempt on her last year, but has a long road ahead.
At 9:15 AM Pacific, Obama delivers a statement in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room. This is an announcement of compromise in the dispute over whether to require health insurance coverage of contraception for female employees of religious institutions.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel.
Today is the fifth anniversary of Obama’s announcement of his candidacy for president, which he made at the Illinois state capitol in Springfield.
The Obama Administration is setting out a compromise in the dispute over whether to require full contraception insurance coverage for female employees at religiously affiliated institutions. Under the new plan, religiously affiliated universities and hospitals will not be forced to offer contraception coverage to their employees.
Insurers will be required, however, to offer complete coverage free of charge to any women who work at such institutions.
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission yesterday approved the first new nuclear plant in a generation, since 1978 actually, near Augusta, Georgia. In 1979, Three Mile Island, The China Syndrome, and very high costs put an end to new nuclear development in the US. But Obama has always been pro-nuclear, as well as pro-renewables, notwithstanding all the criticism he takes from the right. Some other countries, like Germany, which is phasing out its heavy reliance on nuclear power in the wake of last year’s Fukushima disaster, are going in the opposite direction.
The Republican presidential candidates — intriguingly sans Ron Paul — are appearing today at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.
Meanwhile, Obama is dealing with major geopolitical crises.
Right-wing IsraeliForeign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who made an under the radar trip to Washington this week, met with 15 UN ambassadors yesterday in New York, again rattling the Israeli saber in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail with Iran’s nuclear program.
The Assad regime continues its assault on protesters, despite Tuesday’s visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Major blasts hit Syria’s second largest city of Aleppo today, which the Assad regime blamed on its opponents. The regime’s bloody crackdown against protesters continues, despite an international outcry, sanctions, and diplomatic efforts.
Turkey is joining the call for the formation of an International Contact Group on Syria, not unlike the International Contact Group on Libya.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has again decried last weekend’s veto by Russia and China of a UN Security Council resolution against the Assad regime.
Now John McCain and others are calling for the US to seriously explore arming the Syrian rebels.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Southern California and Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown speaks tomorrow at the California Democratic Party convention in San Diego, which I’ll be attending as usual, though little of any real consequence is likely to take place there.
The highlight, as it were, of the weekend, aside from speeches by Brown, Senator Dianne Feinstein, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and other California notables, will a speech by Minnesota Senator Al Franken.
The major piece of business will be the doling out of party endorsements. Some of the local fights are quite heated this year, with redistricting reform and the new open primary scrambling the accustomed dynamics. In particular, there is a big fight between LA Congressman Howard Berman, an old associate in the Hart for President campaign, and LA Congressman Brad Sherman, forced to fight it out in the same district.
Brown is a big backer of Berman, who authored the Agricultural Labor Relations Act while majority leader of the state Assembly.
State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg told reporters yesterday that, despite the end of a public pension reform initiative campaign, he intends to pass a version of pension reform before the state budget is adopted.
This is a major Brown priority, one which he feels is essential in helping pass his revenue initiative in November.
Brown spoke last night at the unveiling in LA of Tesla Motors’ new SUV, the Model X.
The X, slated to go into production late next year, will be built in Tesla’s factory in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Fremont.
It’s an SUV, by the way, which will do 0 to 60 in a stunning 4.4 seconds, which is Porsche 911 territory.
Brown hailed Tesla as an exemplar of the “tremendous creativity” that will lead California out of its present straits into the future.
Embracing his old nickname, Brown said: “As Governor Mooonbeam, you know I like rocket ships, and I also like electric cars.”
Tesla Motors, probably the world’s most famous electric car company and a particular favorite of Brown’s predecessor, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is best known for its halo car, the Tesla Roadster.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon.
Romney, naturally, is doing what he always does.
His new move, having lost three states in Tuesday night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?”
The “outsider” Romney is in Washington Thursday raising money from lobbyists. He’s even designating “Industry Finance Chairs” for the oil and energy, finance, and defense sectors. So much for being an “outsider.” … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
NASA has released a stunning time-lapse video made up of over 500 still images of the Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights. The shots were taken from the International Space Station.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama says a multi-billion dollar settlement between mortgage lenders and states over foreclosure abuses “will begin to turn the page on an era of recklessness that has left so much damage in its wake.”
** QUICK HITS. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the first new nuclear plant in a generation, since 1978 actually, near Augusta, Georgia. In 1979, Three Mile Island, The China Syndrome, and very high costs put an end to new nuclear development in the US. But President Barack Obama has always been pro-nuclear, as well as pro-renewables, notwithstanding all the criticism he takes from the right. … Some other countries, like Germany, which is phasing out its heavy reliance on nuclear power in the wake of last year’s Fukushima disaster, are going in the opposite direction. … Assad regime forces continued to pound opposition forces today in Syria. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon decried the failure of the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution, while Germany several Syrian diplomats said to be spying on Syrian democratic resistance figures. … Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who made an under the radar trip to Washington this week, met with 15 UN ambassadors today in New York, again rattling the Israeli saber in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail with Iran’s nuclear program. … In California politics, state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg told reporters today that, despite the end of a public pension reform initiative campaign, he intends to pass a version of pension reform before the state budget is adopted.
** JERRY-RIGGING: RIDING THE RAILS. You can see the beginnings of a renewed push for California high-speed rail cranking up.
Governor Jerry Brown is letting it be known that there will be adjustments to the plan, which has taken a lot of hits from the usual suspects, mostly institutional opponents of high-speed rail and reflexive Brown critics, mostly repeating the same arguments rather than anything new.
The Central Valley spine will be tightened and made ready for use no matter what happens with the overall project — which will take decades to build — and coastal urban areas will get some sweetening upgrades to make their rail systems ready for the overall (and more useful in the meantime).
A building trades coalition, the California Alliance for Jobs, has launched radio ads, featuring comedian Will Durst, around the state promoting high-speed rail.
US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood has been touring the state, reiterating the Obama Administration’s commitment to the project — Tea Party and old energy economy opposition has killed it off, for now, in the rest of the country — and listening to local concerns about it.
Brown and LaHood met today in the Capitol, prior to Brown heading south to help launch a new electric car with Tesla Motors in LA, and issued statements afterward.
“High-Speed Rail is a key step in modernizing our transportation system and will create much needed and good paying jobs,” declared Brown. “Secretary LaHood and I have joined together to advance the cause of California High-Speed Rail.”
Said LaHood: “Over the past week, I have traveled all over the Golden State and have found a strong base of support for the California High-Speed Rail project, from workers who will build it, manufacturers that will supply the trains to run on it and businesses that will benefit from using it. The Obama Administration is committed to High-Speed Rail because it is good for the economy and the nation. I look forward to working with Governor Brown to make this project as successful as possible.”
Some stirring stuff.
But it’s all still a little too stealth.
LaHood’s California travels were largely under the radar.
And the Brown-LaHood meeting today was not advised in advance. Most learned of it after the fact, when Brown’s office sent out the two men’s statements, along with a photo of them meeting, with Pat Brown’s prized Benny Bufano artwork which graced both father’s and son’s offices during their attorney generalships and governorships in the backdrop.
It’s a good beginning for the high-speed rail comeback, but only that.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon.
Romney, naturally, is doing what he always does.
His new move, having lost three states in Tuesday night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?”
The “outsider” Romney is in Washington Thursday raising money from lobbyists. He’s even designating “Industry Finance Chairs” for the oil and energy, finance, and defense sectors. So much for being an “outsider.” …
** NEW SURVEY: “LIFE RATINGS” AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN NEARLY A YEAR. A new Gallup Poll survey shows “life ratings” to be at their highest point in the US in 11 months.
This is guardedly good news for President Barack Obama, because of the trend of improvement, especially since the fall, and because the rating is far higher than it was during the height of the great global recession.
Americans rated their lives better in January than in any month since March of last year, with their collective Life Evaluation Index score increasing to 50.1 from 48.4 in December. Americans’ life ratings have been steadily recovering since October, when they dropped to their lowest level in more than two years (46.8). …
Americans’ life ratings, which Gallup and Healthways started tracking in January 2008, reached a new high in January 2011 (51.0), but then started steadily sinking in the summer and fall, at the same time that economic confidence tumbled and as Americans became more pessimistic about their personal finances. But, the U.S. Life Evaluation score is now almost back to its all-time high level and remains far higher than it was amid the 2008 and 2009 economic crisis.
The Life Evaluation Index, part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, classifies Americans as “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10 based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated by subtracting the percentage of suffering Americans from the percentage of thriving Americans.
The percentage of Americans who rate their lives well enough to be classified as thriving increased to 53.4% in January, up from 51.9% in December, and is the highest since May of last year.
At the same time, the percentage of Americans who are struggling declined last month to 43.3%, from 44.6% in December. The percentage suffering stayed about the same at 3.3%, compared with 3.5% in December. …
A US Army colonel with multiple Afghan War tours has accused the American military of painting a misleading picture of progress in the war in Afghanistan while glossing over the Afghan government’s many failings. Growing numbers of members of Congress, including former California Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, are calling for declassification of scathing intelligence assessments of Afghan progress.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 9:15 AM Pacific, Obama makes a statement on the housing settlement with banks just agreed to by most state attorneys general.
At 11:45 AM Pafic, Obama welcomes Prime Minister Mario Monti of Italy to the White House.
At 4:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser in a private residence.
As expected, Mitt Romney’s next move, having lost three states in Tuesday night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?” People are getting paid a great deal of money for this counsel.
Romney’s super PAC is busy attacking Newt Gingrich now in Ohio, where the former House speaker leads.
Romney is now also adjusting his positive message, realizing that he not only needs one, but needs one that is more than simply asserting his superiority as a manager of the economy.
It’s a more humble message, a matter of positioning really, asserting that he comes from humble beginnings because his father was once a laborer who rose to the heights of running a major car company and being governor of Michigan.
Of course, that is his father’s story, not his. Romney is a scion of great privilege.
So he will talk more about his own religious work with the downtrodden and otherwise distressed as a Mormon missionary and as a lay pastor. Romney was a Mormon missionary in France in lieu of serving in the US Armed Forces. And he was actually a bishop in the Mormon Church.
He’s also talking up his time as head of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, which he rescued from the embarrassment it was shaping up to be for his home state and its dominant religion.
The Republican candidates will all appear on Friday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. Look for Romney to try to win more support from the far right there.
Meanwhile, Obama is dealing with major geopolitical crises.
The Assad regime continues its assault on protesters, despite Tuesday’s visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Russia, which joined China in vetoing a UN Security Council resolution adopted by the other 13 UNSC members calling for change in Syria, said it would bring a halt to the violence in its longtime ally.
Thousands gathered today in Baghdad celebrating the pullout of US troops from Iraq. The US embassy operation there, once set to be truly massive — the better to operate at the major new base for US operations in the Middle East — is being seriously downsized with security now very difficult for diplomatic personnel.
But it has failed.
Turkey is joining the call for the formation of an International Contact Group on Syria, not unlike the International Contact Group on Libya.
Talk continues of Israeli air strikes on Iran, with more saying that they are inevitable by summer.
There are also fresh signs of deterioration in Iraq and Afghanistan, as you see in the news video reports.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and Los Angeles.
At 7 PM, Brown arrives at the Tesla Los Angeles Design Studio in Hawthorne.
At 8 PM, Brown will speak at Tesla Motors Model X “vehicle premiere.”
Tesla Motors, probably the world’s most famous electric car company and a particular favorite of Brown’s predecessor, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, is best known for its halo car, the Tesla Roadster.
“California families will finally see substantial relief after experiencing so much pain from the mortgage crisis,” said Attorney General Kamala Harris, the state’s negotiator, in a statement this morning. “Hundreds of thousands of homeowners will directly benefit from this California commitment.”
“This outcome is the result of an insistence that California receive a fair deal commensurate with the harm done here. We insisted on homeowner relief for Californians and demanded enforceability so homeowners actually see a benefit that will allow them to stay in their homes, and preserved our ability to investigate banker crime and predatory lending,” Harris went on.
California will also be able to pursue further investigations into banking misconduct, including a joint investigative project with Nevada’s attorney general.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $14 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In today’s briefing, White House press secretary Jay Carney said the US is not planning military intervention or the arming of rebels in dealing with the Syrian crisis.
** QUICK HITS. As expected, Mitt Romney’s next move, having lost three states in last night’s big blow-out, is to attack Rick Santorum. As “an insider.” (Actually, he is a far right neocon fundamentalist.) Like Romney is an “outsider?” People are getting paid a great deal of money for this counsel. … Romney’s super PAC is busy attacking Newt Gingrich now in Ohio, where the former House speaker leads. … Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, setting up his next movie, The Tomb, in which he will star with old rival-turned-pal Sylvester Stallone, had shoulder surgery to deal with the impact of various stunts in his just wrapped The Last Stand. Ouch. So it’s not all getting international environmental awards in exotic locales. More to follow. …
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …
** JERRY-RIGGING: PUBLIC PENSION REFORM FALLS, BROWN MOVES ON REVENUE INITIATIVE. The word was that proponents of California public pension reform via the ballot box this year were having trouble raising big money. The other shoe dropped today when they announced the end of their bid, citing the ballot designation and description from Attorney General Kamala Harris’s office as too much to overcome.
The end of the drive won’t help Governor Jerry Brown’s more measured public pension reform proposal. Having something harsher on the ballot is a good argument for action to help head it off.
Brown still has the argument that voters will want to see more efficiencies in government before agreeing to more taxes this November. But that may not be as powerful.
In any event, Brown’s proposal isn’t very popular with public employee unions, either. Though I’m not sure it’s as unpopular as some reporting makes it out to be. That reporting, like so much in the increasingly flattened world of journalism, relies on a statement from one labor-backed anti-pension reform group. Is the re-tweeted surface impression entirely accurate? Probably not.
Meanwhile, Brown moves forward on several fronts, raising money from the business community for his November revenue initiative and working to dissuade backers of potential rival measures.
One big source of business money for his initiative is proving to be a number of Indian casino tribes.
Brown yesterday appointed a new Governor’s tribal advisor. She is Cynthia Gomez, most recently the chief justice of Miwok Indians Tribal Court and before that assistant secretary of environmental justice and tribal governmental policy for the California Environmental Protection Agency during the Schwarzenegger Administration, with 20 years of prior experience in state government, much of it liaising with tribal interests.
There’s not going to be any repeat of Schwarzenegger’s early war with the casino tribes — much of it sparked by their massive and unprecedented bankrolling of Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante’s gubernatorial campaign — in this administration.
Brown, incidentally, will speak Thursday night in Southern California at the “vehicle premiere” of Tesla Motors’ Model X. Tesla, of course, is arguably the world’s most famous electric car company, best known for its stylish and swift roadster.
** NEW POLL: VOTER APPROVAL OF CONGRESS REACHES NEW RECORD LOW. So how is that congressional takeover by right-wing Republicans working out?
Not that Democratic members of Congress, as a group, are held in high esteem, either, mind you.
Nor that Republicans view Congress well, either.
It’s interesting that Congress continues to decline, from already record low ratings, since the mood of the country is somewhat better, economic confidence is increasing to a degree, and President Barack Obama is on a rising trend.
A record-low 10% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, down from 13% in January and the previous low of 11%, recorded in December 2011. Eighty-six percent disapprove of Congress, tying the record high for disapproval set in December. …
The new-low 10% approval rating is based on a Gallup survey conducted Feb. 2-5, about two weeks after President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union address and the reconvening of the U.S. House and Senate.
Congressional approval averaged 17% for all of 2011. The highest reading last year was 24% in May. More broadly, Gallup’s highest approval rating for Congress is 84% in October 2001, a month after the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C.
It is difficult to pinpoint any specific recent actions that may have led to the continuing deterioration in Congress’ image, particularly because much of the political attention in January and early February has focused on the Republican presidential race. Congress at this point is again wrangling over the extension of the payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits — both of which were temporarily extended late last year in a short-term fix that expires at the end of February. It is notable that President Obama has continued to make criticism of Congress a part of his broad presidential re-election strategy.
Congress’ current low ratings continue a generally negative trend. The 17% annual average for 2011 is by one percentage point the lowest yearly average Gallup has recorded. More broadly, the average congressional job approval rating since 1974 is 34%, signifying the generally poor esteem in which the American people have held Congress over the past decades. …
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 9:45 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
Can you say “inevitable?” Rick Santorum won all three states yesterday — Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado — from supposedly inevitable Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney. The first two contests were landslides; the latter was a state that Romney won in a landslide in 2008.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 9:45 AM Pacific, press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
At 11 AM Pacific, Obama attends the Democratic Senate Caucus Retreat at Nationals Park, the home of the Washington Nationals baseball team.
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.
Big wins for Rick Santorum last night, taking all three states from putative Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney.
I described what was likely to happen, and why, in yesterday morning’s piece linked below.
Mitt Romney’s campaign released a memo yesterday rationalizing expected setbacks in today’s caucus and primary contests.
“These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” But Romney is no Jedi, and the would-be mind trick only works on weak-minded chroniclers, not the voters themselves.
Romney was thoroughly humiliated last night, losing in huge blow-outs in Minnesota, where he was supposed to be no worse than second but finished third, and in Missouri.
He even lost in Colorado, a state that was supposed to be a lock.
In Missouri, Santorum pulverized Romney, 55-25, with Ron Paul a distant third at 12% and Newt Gingrich not on the ballot.
In Minnesota, Santorum whipped Romney 45-17, with Paul pulling into second with 27% and Gingrich fourth with 11%.
And in Colorado, which Romney won with 60% in 2008, Santorum beat Romney, 40-35, with Gingrich a distant third at 13% and Paul, supposedly strong there, last with 12%.
Romney has now lost five of the first eight contests, despite his massive financial and organizational advantages, three of them in epic landslide fashion. This is one very deeply flawed frontrunner. As I may have mentioned once or twice in the past several months.
I’ll get into all this in detail, and what it means going forward.
Meanwhile, Obama is dealing with major geopolitical crises.
The Assad regime continues its assault on protesters, despite yesterday’s visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Russia, which joined China in vetoing a UN Security Council resolution adopted by the other 13 UNSC members calling for change in Syria, said it would bring a halt to the violence in its longtime ally.
But by the evidence of today, it has failed.
Despite a visit from Russia’s foreign minister, the Assad regime continued its assault on pro-democracy protesters today. The onslaught in the Syrian city of Homs has prompted Turkey to call for an international conference.
This will further spur the formation of an International Contact Group on Syria, not unlike the International Contact Group on Libya.
Indeed, Turkey is calling for such an international conference now in the wake of the failure of the Lavrov mission to Damascus to bring an end to the violence.
Obama announced new sanctions on Iran’s central bank on Monday, with Iran engaged in a new round of military exercises and lots of recent talk of Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
Talk continues of Israeli air strikes on Iran, with more saying that they are inevitable by summer.
Are we drifting to war?
Meanwhile, the crisis in Egypt continues, with officials of NGOs — including various Americans, among them the son of Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood — charged with political crimes. LaHood and other Americans are safe in the US Embassy. They have been helping pro-democracy activists in Egypt, those who brought an end to the Mubarak regime and helped give rise to another sort of dictatorship, which they continue to oppose.
Is a potential hostage situation developing?
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
As expected, the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday upheld a federal district court ruling that the 2008 initiative is unconstitutional, which of course will set up an appeal to the US Supreme Court by its sponsors.
But they may appeal to the full 9th Circuit first.
Brown, then California’s attorney general, joined then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in refusing to defend Prop 8 in the courts, a decision later reaffirmed by Attorney General Kamala Harris.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum. … From my February 7th essay.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $98 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
In an awesome demonstration of the future of American high technology, President Barack Obama and a young science fair participant used an air cannon to shoot a marshmallow across the East Room of the White House.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … ROMNEY WILL BE INEVITABLE WHEN …
** QUICK HITS. A relatively quiet day in presidential campaign politics as Mitt Romney’s campaign released a memo rationalizing expected setbacks in today’s caucus and primary contests.“These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” … Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who will not do nearly as well as Rick Santorum tonight, will speak the last weekend in February at the California Republican Party convention in the San Francisco Bay Area. … Gingrich naturally denounced today’s federal appeals court ruling that California’s same sex marriage ban is unconstitutional, calling the ruling an “affront to Judeo-Christian civilization.”
A federal appeals court today declared California’s same-sex marriage ban to be unconstitutional, putting the bitterly contested, voter-approved law on track for a likely appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
** AS EXPECTED, 9TH CIRCUIT COURT DECLARES PROP 8 ANTI-SAME SEX MARRIAGE INITIATIVE UNCONSTITUTIONAL, SETTING UP APPEAL.A three-judge panel of the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals, well-known as one of the most liberal in the country, announced at 10 AM today in San Francisco that it finds California’s anti-same sex marriage Proposition 8 to be unconstitutional, upholding an earlier ruling by now retired federal Judge Vaughn Walker.
The ruling came on a 2-1 vote of the panel, which crafted its decision narrowly so as to apply only to California and said that same sex marriages in the Golden State — which had been authorized by the California Supreme Court before the Prop 8 vote in 2008 — cannot resume until a deadline for appeal to the entire 9th circuit court passes.
“Although the Constitution permits communities to enact most laws they believe to be desirable, it requires that there be at least a legitimate reason for the passage of a law that treats different classes of people differently. There was no such reason that Proposition 8 could have been enacted,” the ruling states.
Prop 8 backers say they will appeal to the US Supreme Court, decrying today’s ruling as “a San Francisco decision” prodded by a “Hollywood-orchestrated attack on marriage.”
“Today’s ruling is a victory for fairness, a victory for equality and a victory for justice,” declared California Attorney General Kamala Harris, who followed the path of her predecessor, now Governor Jerry Brown and then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in refusing to defend Prop 8 in court.
Brown issued a brief statement on the ruling: “The court has rendered a powerful affirmation of the right of same-sex couples to marry. I applaud the wisdom and courage of this decision.”
In contrast, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, who is not a player in these maneuverings, put out a lengthy statement and called a press conference on the matter.
“Today’s decision by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals stands as a victory for the fundamental American principle that all people are equal, and deserve equalrights and treatment under the law. This is the biggest step that the American judicial system has taken to end the grievous discrimination against men and women in same-sex relationships,” Newsom opined, “and should be highly praised.”
Newsom briefly and unilaterally declared same sex marriage legal in San Francisco while its mayor in 2004.
In 2008, after the California Supreme Court declared same sex marriage legal, Newsom notoriously gave a sneering speech in which he declared same sex marriage to be inevitable, “Whether you like it or not.”
That speech, along with his decision to host a same sex wedding at San Francisco City Hall attended by the young schoolchildren taught by the celebrants at the height of the campaign, made Newsom the star of the highly successful Yes on 8 advertising campaign.
Admiral Bill McRaven, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, said today that special operations forces in Afghanistan are preparing for a possible expanded role as overall US forces begin to draw down after a decade of war.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).The bust that was the Nevada Republican presidential caucuses revealed much about brewing Republican swing state problems and the decided limitations of both Mitt Romney’s candidacy and that of his most persistent pursuer, Newt Gingrich. Which in the latest twist may redound to the benefit of the unsung winner of Iowa, Rick Santorum.
Let’s start with Gingrich, who has turned Romney’s seemingly smooth march to the Republican presidential nomination into, at best, a choppy and awkward procession dependent almost entirely on overwhelming spending and record blizzards of negative advertising.
Twice now, Gingrich has been in position to take command of the race, and twice now — first in the run-up to Iowa, after he declared himself the inevitable nominee, and then in Florida, after he came back and blitzed Romney in South Carolina — he has faltered.
After losing in Florida, Gingrich had the opportunity to show his ability to swiftly adapt to changing circumstances. After all, as co-founder of the Congressional Military Reform Caucus, Gingrich, along with my old friend Gary Hart, was champion of the Boyd Cycle — Observation-Orientation-Decison-Action — developed by the late Col. John Boyd which holds that the ability to rapidly adjust and decisively act in changing circumstances is the key to victory.
But instead of moving swiftly, decisively, and accurately, Gingrich spent the week seeming adrift, bouncing from misstep to mishap.
He ran a dreadful campaign in Nevada, starting at the last minute in a place he should have been stealing a march on as he roared up in the South Carolina polls, running no TV ads at all despite the affordability of Nevada media in its easy to handle two markets, having no surrogate operation or field operation to speak of, and holding only five candidate events after the Florida primary.
There were plenty of opportunities on which to capitalize, starting with Romney’s view that homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages — Nevada is the national leader in this — should be allowed to drown, extending to Romney’s view that he needn’t concern himself with the poor since they have welfare and his embrace of billionaire birther Donald Trump, a national symbol of self-aggrandizing excess.
But Gingrich apparently expected Trump to endorse him! Which was merely a continuation of the comedy of errors beginning with Gingrich blowing off a meeting with popular Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, who had earlier endorsed now Gingrich-backer Rick Perry.
Still, Gingrich’s errant non-campaign beat Ron Paul, who supposedly had a big operation in the Silver State. Supposedly.
Both beat Rick Santorum, who had already moved on to Colorado and Minnesota, which hold caucuses today, and Missouri, which has a beauty pageant primary. Had he dropped out, and had Gingrich mounted a decent campaign, Gingrich would have had a shot at Romney in the Silver State.
But Santorum, who was screwed by bad reporting out of his Iowa victory — which I warned about early on — isn’t getting out of the race. In fact, according to Monday night’s Public Policy Polling survey, he has a slight lead in the Minnesota caucuses and appears to be ahead in Missouri, which is a primary allocating no delegates. …
Russia’s foreign minister arrived in Syria for talks with President Bashar al-Assad as the Syrian army’s deadly bombardment of the city of Homs enters its fifth day.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama then viewed science fair projects in the State Dining Room.
Following that, Obama delivered remarks at the White House Science Fair in the East Room.
At 9:45 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
Obama campaign manager Jim Messina announced last night in this column on the Huffington Post, and elsewhere, that the president’s forces will not unilaterally disarm in the face of the rise of the super PACs. Which, as we’ve seen in the Republican presidential race, have come close to supplanting the roles of the formal campaigns, especially with Mitt Romney emerging as the clear candidate of Wall Street.
So Messina is calling on Obama backers to help support Priorities USA, a nascent super PAC which to date has drawn major support only from director Steven Spielberg and a few others.
Meanwhile, the Republican nomination fight continues, with Romney clearly worried that he may lose one and quite possibly two of today’s contests in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado.
Only in the latter state is Romney likely to win, in today’s caucuses. In the other two, he trails Rick Santorum, according to late polling from Public Policy Polling.
I discuss all this in the essay excerpted and linked above.
Obama announced new sanctions on Iran’s central bank yesterday, with Iran engaged in a new round of military exercises and lots of recent talk of Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
The administration is moving to assembly a nascent International Contact Group on Syria in the wake of the dual Russia/China veto of the UN Security Council resolution on Saturday.
To cool the situation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Damascus today to seek a quelling of the violence. But the Assad regime’s highly lethal assault on protesters continued for a fifth straight day.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals is set to issue its ruling on the Proposition 8 banning of same sex marriage in California at 10 AM.
I expect the court to uphold a federal district court ruling that the 2008 initiative is unconstitutional, which of course will set up an appeal to the US Supreme Court by its sponsors.
Brown, then California’s attorney general, joined then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in refusing to defend Prop 8 in the courts, a decision later reaffirmed by Attorney General Kamala Harris.
So the proponents are forced to defend it themselves.
In other action, the Obama Administration yesterday disallowed Brown’s attempted austerity move to force co-payments from low-income health care recipients, creating a small budget hole
And former Governor Pete Wilson endorsed Mitt Romney for president.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions.
In the 2008 cycle, with the firm backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who represents the Silver State, the Democrats elevated Nevada into the First Four, along with traditional one and two Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, as a way to get their candidates ready to compete in the West, a growing area targeted for competition. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls.
Florida answered several key questions about the race. Would Gingrich blow it (again)? Would Romney buy it? Would the negative out-weigh the positive? Would Gingrich give up if he lost? … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Basejumper Felix Baumgartner will attempt to break the speed of sound by freefalling from the edge of space, nearly 23 miles up, above Roswell, New Mexico.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $98 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The US today shut down its embassy in Damascus and recalled its ambassador to Syria in the wake of continued violence there and the UN Security Council resolution vetoed by Russia and China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrives in Syria on Tuesday, reportedly to try to convince the Assad regime to stop the violence for which Russia is increasingly blamed.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?).
** QUICK HITS. President Barack Obama announced new sanctions on Iran’s central bank today, with Iran engaged in a new round of military exercises and lots of recent talk of Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. … In California politics, the Obama Administration is disallowing Governor Jerry Brown’s attempted austerity move to force co-payments from low-income health care recipients. … And former Governor Pete Wilson today endorsed Mitt Romney for president.
** JERRY-RIGGING: DRAMATIC POSTURING TODAY FROM WOULD-BE INITIATIVE LEADERS. Leaders of the “Millionaire Tax” initiative, which would ramp up income taxes permanently on millionaires to pay for schools and some social programs, launched their signature-gathering drive today with a media conference call and some street theater. The latter in the form of some freeway banners.
Several, including California Calls leader Anthony Thigpenn, a former Black Panther, and Courage Campaign head Rick Jacobs, who directed Howard Dean’s presidential campaign in California, said that they met with Governor Jerry Brown in late December and he did not try to dissuade them from their course. Brown, of course, is working to clear potentially competing measures from a November ballot on which he prefers that only his temporary income tax on the rich/sales tax initiative appears as a measure dealing with the income tax.
But there were three other potential competitors in that category. One, an elaborate plan from the Think Long Committee to cut tax rates for the wealthy and corporations, among other things, has fallen by the wayside as I predicted here early on.
But the “Millionaire Tax” and another income tax-related measure, this by heiress Molly Munger — now a civil rights lawyer, she is a player in this because her father is Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner — are still out there.
Munger spoke today before the state PTA conference in Sacramento, and reportedly told the crowd and reporters that she is moving forward with her plan to raise income taxes for most everyone to fund the schools. Something which does not poll particularly well, as you might imagine.
Munger, who has never been involved in a campaign before, to my knowledge, and whose existence I was unaware of prior to the announcement of her brainstorm, says she has internal polling showing that her initiative is popular, and that both her initiative and Brown’s can pass. In which case, she told reporters, her initiative would supersede the governor’s. Pass the salt.
She apparently said she might make some changes in her initiative, but also said that she will spend whatever it takes to qualify the measure.
The Millionaire Tax crew, which does not have anything like those sorts of resources, was more vague about its financing.
This morning’s conference call was to announce the start of the petition campaign and to announce the support of the California Nurses Association, a group which is quite theatrical and always highly-publicized, but not one of the big labor funders of state politics. Their representative was noncommittal about financial commitments.
But he did deliver a spiel echoing the Occupy Wall Street rhetoric about why a permanent big tax hike on millionaires is a great idea, and talked up grassroots organizing.
The California Federation of Teachers, the state’s smaller teachers union — the giant California Teachers Association backs Brown’s initiative — has joined with a left-liberal coalition called California Calls to put together about $700,000. Any numbers beyond that, aside from a goal of $10 million, were left vague.
The CFT rep did claim that the union took the lead on Proposition 25, the 2010 initiative which changed the state budget to a majority vote. (But not the revenue aspects.) That may come as news to consultant Gale Kaufman, who ran that campaign and is the chief strategist for the California Teachers Association.
Brown’s concern, of course, is that more than one initiative in the same vein will confuse voters and lead to defeat. The Millionaires Tax folks denied that, citing some evidence that is interesting but not definitive.
Both initiative campaigns are at the brave early stage of maneuvering. Where they end up may be another matter entirely.
** NEW SURVEY: ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE IN THE STATES. OR LACK OF SAME. A new Gallup Poll survey reveals that economic confidence was down year-on-year in every state in the Union last year. Which should be no particular surprise.
And that confidence was highest in the District of Columbia, not technically a state, and not surprising given its status as the base of the federal government, and lowest in perpetually hard scrabble West Virginia.
How about California?
Well, the not so Golden State is about average in economic confidence, despite having the second highest unemployment rate in the country. It dropped from -29 to -36.
This actually placed California 12th highest in terms of the smallest decline in economic confidence.
You know when you are talking about which states have the smallest declines in economic confidence that it is a decidedly non-good situation.
Towards the end of the year, of course, California’s prospects perked up, with notable declines in the unemployment rate and continued strength in exports and GDP growth.
Nevada, long ballyhooed as the beneficiary of California’s supposedly strangling business climate, has the country’s worst unemployment rate and mortgage crisis by far. And Texas, a supposed economic exemplar on the far right, dropped out of the top 10 most economically confident states.
In 2011, Americans remained pessimistic about the national economy, but residents of the District of Columbia, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Nebraska were less pessimistic. Economic confidence was lowest among West Virginia and Maine residents. …
Nationally, the Economic Confidence Index was -37 in 2011, down from -28 in 2010. The Index is based on the average differences between Americans’ assessments of current conditions (11% excellent or good and 48% poor in 2011) and their views of whether the economy is getting better (29%) or worse (66%). The Index has a theoretical range of -100 to +100, with negative scores indicating respondents are more negative than positive about the economy. For the full results on the components of the index by state, see page 2.
There are no clear patterns in the states that rank in the top and bottom 10 in economic confidence. For example, the top 10 states vary by region and political leanings, including the most (Hawaii, along with D.C.) and least (Utah) Democratic states. …
The composition of the 10 most economically confident states is similar to last year’s, with Delaware and Texas the only states dropping out, and Utah and Nebraska moving in. After the District of Columbia, South Dakota and Hawaii had the highest economic confidence scores in 2009 and 2010, respectively. North Dakota ranked first in 2008.
West Virginia has ranked as the least economically confident state in both 2010 and 2011. It was third worst in 2009, behind Wyoming and Michigan. Rhode Island was least confident in 2008. …
Best Super Bowl ad for the Obama re-elect. Halftime in America, featuring Clint Eastwood for Chrysler and the successfully bailed-out US auto industry.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION AND THE BIG NEVADA BUST.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Another big week in presidential politics, but not so much due to the Republican presidential contest. And an intriguing and quieter week in California politics, where Governor Jerry Brown fine-tunes the plan for the first phase of high-speed rail in America (a project that will last for decades), deals with near-term budget problems, and works on his November initiative plans.
Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses easily on Saturday, though he got fewer votes this time than when Nevada was a minor after-thought four years ago and took some big self-induced hits in the process. The race moves on to caucuses this week in Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, and a beauty contest primary with no delegates at stake in Missouri, and Romney has some problems ahead. But, while that race goes on, and I’ll get back to it, the bigger developments involved President Barack Obama.
Though he has some more encouraging economic news, big geopolitical crises are again looming, around Syria and Iran and Israel.
Obama authorized Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — appearing in Bulgaria, once a Soviet bloc state — to speak out vehemently Sunday against Saturday’s dual veto by Russia and China of a UN Security Council resolution to urge Syrian President Hafez al-Assad to halt the violence against pro-democracy protesters and step away from power.
The vote was 13 to 2, but since the two no votes were cast in the form of vetoes by two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the other three being the US, UK, and France, all strong supporters of the resolution — the resolution was defeated.
Clinton described the UN Security Council as “neutered” by Russian and Chinese intransigence. She vowed to expose those countries still supplying weapons to the Assad regime, which almost certainly includes Russia, and to move to establish new international sanctions and actions against the Assad regime outside of the UN framework.
I suspect that Clinton is on the verge of calling for an International Contact Group on Syria, like the same grouping which formed on Libya.
For days, the United Nations Security Council struggled behind the scenes for a resolution condemning the Syrian regime that wouldn’t be vetoed by Russia. Friday’s State Department briefing was a study in the diplomatic dance.
But on Saturday, with some 250 protesters reportedly massacred the day before by Assad regime forces in Homs, on the 30th anniversary of massacres infamously carried out by his father, the US, UK, France, and Arab League pressed ahead with their resolution calling for Assad to step away from the presidency.
The resolution garnered all the votes on the UN Security Council save two. But because those two are Russia and China, and they are among the five permanent members of the Security Council, the resolution failed despite winning numerically, 13-2.
US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice delivered a blistering statement to the Security Council in the wake of the vetoes. Russia, as Rice bitterly noted in her remarks, continues to sell weapons to the Assad regime.
So why are Russia, which has borne the brunt of criticism, and China — which emerged from the closet to join in the unusual dual veto at the Security Council — protecting the Assad regime?
Both countries’ leaderships are deeply unsettled by the Arab Awakening. Why? Because it is sweeping away longtime allies, such as Gaddafi in Libya and now, quite possibly, Assad in Syria, who is Russia’s most important ally in the ME.
And because both countries have nascent protest movements which the ruling parties find deeply troubling.
Russia’s gets more publicity because the news media, both domestic and international is afforded more freedom of coverage there. But China is, if anything, even more repressive, freely shutting down Internet access, for example, in ways which would not be tolerated in Russia, and simply blocking international news media from access in some instances.
None of this is new for China. It is a bit new for Russia, which had opened much more to the West during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, which is now drawing to an end. With the return of Vladimir Putin, whom I’ve met and is one steely son of a gun, to the presidency, the friendly face of the Kremlin is being replaced.
And with the US slowly but surely disentangling itself from its Iraq and Afghanistan entanglements, US interests are more apt to bump up against those of China — as we are seeing in the Asia Pacific region — and Russia, which has been quite helpful in Afghanistan.
So both Russia and China are against establishing a humanitarian interventionist rationale in the internal affairs of countries, a rationale which they fear over the long term could be applied against themselves. And as a result are developing a narrative, as you can see by watching Russia Today, that the US, NATO, and selected Arab powers are engaged in a new imperialist conspiracy.
But Syria is only one place where the big powers are running up against one another.
Another potential flash point exists around Iran.
With talk of Israeli air strikes on Iran again spiking, red hots on the ultra-left are positing an Obama Administration conspiracy with the Jewish state to wage war on the peace-loving Islamic republic while red hots on the far right see the administration as cravenly selling out plucky Zionists taking on the necessary civilizational struggle. Heaven deliver us from loons of both persuasions.
Iran embarked on another set of military exercises on Saturday. Initially, at least, they are land and air-based, not naval. Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. But it also warned the US not to have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf, and USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group confidently steamed right back in there. Not that the Iranians couldn’t present some problems in that bathtub.
China is an advocate of Iran, again receiving little notice in the tunnel vision US media, flatly refusing US and European Union entreaties to stop buying Iranian oil as a means of leveraging more pressure on the Islamic republic to drop its nuclear weapons program.
Russia, as one of the world’s leading oil powers, has no interest in buying Iranian oil. And its interests are more complex, since I don’t believe that the Kremlin wants Iran, a current ally of a sort but a rival over the sweep of history, to become a nuclear power, either. Yet it does not want the US and its allies to have their way in the Middle East, either.
While these growing crises play out, the rather absurd Nevada Republican presidential caucuses went down this weekend.
And down is where they went.
Although this was planned to be a major event, one of the first four contests in the Republican nomination race, it devolved into a sparsely attended sideshow.
In fact, fewer Republicans voted this time than four years ago, when it was an afterthought event taking place on the same day as the South Carolina primary.
Mitt Romney swept to a big victory, with about 50%. Newt Gingrich was second with 21%, followed by Ron Paul with 19% and Rick Santorum with 10%.
Romney’s numbers are undoubtedly inflated by a disproportionate number of Mormons taking part in the caucuses. With lower turnout, the Mormon vote, which should be about 20% in a Nevada Republican contest — Mormons are 11% of the state’s population — is even more significant.
Gingrich ran a dreadful campaign in Nevada, starting at the last minute, running no TV ads at all despite the affordability of Nevada media, having no surrogate operation or field operation to speak of, and holding only five candidate events since Florida.
Still, he beat Ron Paul, who supposedly had a big operation in the Silver State.
Now the circus moves on.
Meanwhile, someone who has won not one but two Nevada presidential caucuses, albeit as a Democratic rather than Republican presidential candidate, Jerry Brown, has a lot of work this week, mostly behind the scenes.
My cadre of taxi driver advisors, naturally swearing me to secrecy as to their identities, tell me a variety of arguably colorful things about what Brown must do/can’t do/isn’t doing on high-speed rail. But I’m already forgetting them.
In pushing forward with high-speed rail, Brown and Obama — for California is the only place in the country still moving on this priority for forward-thinking Democrats in the wake of Tea Partyism — find themselves vehemently opposed by the old energy economy, and its reflexive advocates in the lobbying and media worlds, which seeks to strangle high-speed rail in its American crib while 14 other advanced industrial nations look at the US in the rear view mirror.
Brown, like his predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger before him, seeks to rise above the leveling and mediocrity inherent in a political and media culture in which splitting the difference between hyper-partisan extremes is viewed as statesmanship.
Brown also needs a plan showing how the first phase of the project, the “spine” down the Central Valley, is relevant both for development of the Valley and Valley transit and for the future phases of the project. And he needs to keep on communicating the nature of very big public works projects in America, which are very frequently opposed both by lobbies for the old order of things and by those who can see only increments of what they are already familiar with.
The same sorts of folks who criticize Brown on high-speed rail derided his pioneering efforts on energy efficiency and renewable energy decades ago.
Meanwhile, with the current state budget creaking under strain and Democratic legislators opposing more near-term budget cuts (while Republicans oppose tax hikes), Brown signed legislation last week allowing nearly $900 million in internal borrowing from specialized funds.
Too many Republicans see improving revenues from economic recovery and a Facebook IPO as a reason to eschew any new revenues, and too many Democrats seize on the same rationale for avoiding needed budget cuts.
Speaking of which, the California Democratic Party convention is this coming weekend in San Diego. Party Chairman John Burton is continuing his pattern of avoiding having big Obama Administration officials play major roles, instead inviting left-liberal heroes to deliver stemwinders.
Last year it was Senator Bernie Sanders, the only avowed socialist in the upper house in a great many years. This year it is comedian-turned-Senator Al Franken.
Brown will also speak, as will Senator Dianne Feinstein, who still has not drawn any serious Republican opposition to her re-election this year, and the various other statewide elected officials and legislative leaders.
The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeal may add a yeasty element this week with a decision on the constitutionality of the state’s Prop 8 ban on same sex marriage. The 2008 initiative has been declared unconstitutional in federal district court.
Here’s what Obama’s week looks like. You’ll note the big gaps in public appearances, the better for him to focus on the crises surrounding Syria, Iran and Israel.
On Monday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House. On Tuesday, Obama will host the second White House Science Fair celebrating the student winners of a broad range of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) competitions from across the country. He will announce various measures to promote science and math education. On Wednesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Thursday, he will host Prime Minister Mario Monti of Italy at the White House. The two will discuss steps the Italian government is taking to deal with its fiscal crisis. They will also consult about preparations for the 2012 G8 and NATO Summits that the United States will host in Chicago. And on Friday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
In the wake of the Chinese and Russian veto of a UN Security Council resolution, Syrian soldiers are today again shelling the central city of Homs, bombing houses and a temporary medical clinic. The government is attacking opposition targets across the country but the Syrian military is concentrating its attacks on Homs, to try and break the back of the opposition.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Heiress Molly Munger, funding a rival revenue initiative that would raise income taxes on most everyone in the state to benefit education — an idea which does not, needless to say, poll well — addresses the state Parent Teachers Association conference in Sacramento today.
The other rival revenue initiative, by the smaller of the state’s two teachers unions and a coalition of left-liberal groups including the publicity shy California Nurses Association (that’s a little joke) holds a conference call today to mark the beginning of a signature gathering drive for its Millionaires Tax initiative. Only the California Federation of Teachers has substantial funds, and generally not enough to be one of the big players in elections.
Most of the state’s major unions back Brown’s initiative.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions.
In the 2008 cycle, with the firm backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who represents the Silver State, the Democrats elevated Nevada into the First Four, along with traditional one and two Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, as a way to get their candidates ready to compete in the West, a growing area targeted for competition.
It worked.
The first forum, in 2007, with the Democratic presidential candidates took place not in Washington or New York or even Iowa or New Hampshire, but in little Carson City, the capital of Nevada. Hosted by George Stephanopoulos, who memorably mispronounced Nevada in the process, drawing hoots from the crowd, it drew much of the East Coast-based national political media away from their usual haunts.
Las Vegas went on to host some stirring debates between the Democratic presidential contenders.
And on the day of the 2008 Democratic presidential caucuses in Nevada, no less than former President Bill Clinton personally lobbied caucus-goers in a raucous display inside one of the voting gatherings in a casino on the Las Vegas Strip. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls.
Florida answered several key questions about the race. Would Gingrich blow it (again)? Would Romney buy it? Would the negative out-weigh the positive? Would Gingrich give up if he lost? … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
China has released a high-resolution, full-coverage image of the Moon. The photo, from China’s second lunar orbiter, is the first of its kind to be so detailed.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $17 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Speaking on Sunday in Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called yesterday’s vote in the UN Security Council a “travesty.” Russia and China vetoed a resolution supporting an Arab League plan aimed at ending the violence in Syria.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama authorized Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — appearing in Bulgaria, once a Soviet bloc state — to speak out vehemently today against Saturday’s dual veto by Russia and China of a UN Security Council resolution to urge Syrian President Hafez al-Assad to halt the violence against pro-democracy protesters and step away from power.
The vote was 13 to 2, but since the two no votes were cast in the form of vetoes by two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the other three being the US, UK, and France, all strong supporters of the resolution — the resolution was defeated.
Clinton described the UN Security Council as “neutered” by Russian and Chinese intransigence. She vowed to expose those countries still supplying weapons to the Assad regime, which almost certainly includes Russia, and to move to establish new international sanctions and actions against the Assad regime outside of the UN framework.
I suspect that Clinton is on the verge of calling for an International Contact Group on Syria, like the same grouping which formed on Libya.
While this growing crisis plays out, the rather absurd Nevada Republican presidential caucuses went down this weekend.
And down is where they went.
Although this was planned to be a major event, one of the first four contests in the Republican nomination race, it devolved into a sparsely attended sideshow.
In fact, fewer Republicans voted this time than four years ago, when it was an afterthought event taking place on the same day as the South Carolina primary.
Mitt Romney swept to a big victory, with 47.6%. Newt Gingrich was second with 22.7%.
Ron Paul was a distant third at 18.6%, followed by Rick Santorum with 11.1%.
Romney’s numbers are undoubtedly inflated by a disproportionate number of Mormons taking part in the caucuses. With lower turnout, the Mormon vote, which should be about 20% in a Nevada Republican contest, is even more significant.
Gingrich ran a dreadful campaign in Nevada, starting at the last minute, running no TV ads at all despite the affordability of Nevada media, having no surrogate operation or field operation to speak of, and holding only five candidate events since Florida.
With no Nevada debate, he had no opportunity to make much of a splash, and he made the least of what opportunities he had.
Still, he beat Ron Paul, who supposedly had a big operation in the Silver State.
What Paul really has there is a strange crew. A late caucus was held in Las Vegas for orthodox Jews celebrating the sabbath during the day. But it was “won” by Ron Paul, whose campaign told voters of all persuasions that they could vote there if they’d missed out earlier, even though the caucus was specifically set up only for orthodox Jews.
Santorum had already moved on to Colorado. Had he dropped out, and had he mounted a decent campaign, Gingrich would have had a shot at Romney in the Silver State.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
It’s Super Bowl Sunday, and with the San Francisco 49ers missing the game by the narrowest of margins — a very bad officiating call and two inexplicable turnovers, the second in overtime — Brown, not the biggest of sports fans at the best of times, has had nothing to say.
I don’t have a big rooting interest, though the New York Giants are certainly annoying with all their big talk. In a game like this without a clear personal favorite, I usually let the game start before I’m taken by one team or another.
But this time I think the New England Patriots are my slight favorite. Actually, I like quarterback Tom Brady, who’s a San Francisco Bay Area guy (I competed against his high school when I was in high school) and is now a neighbor of former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in Los Angeles. He’s a great player and a classy act.
Yet I like Giants quarterback Eli Manning, too. (Just not his loudmouth teammates.) Still, Brady has a great chance to win his fourth Super Bowl today, which would tie him with Joe Montana. And he was there in Candlestick Park — as a four-year old! — when Montana connected with Dwight Clark on one of the greatest plays of all-time, “The Catch,” putting the 49ers into their first Super Bowl.
On the day after several hundred protesters were reportedly massacred by regime forces, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution backing an Arab League peace plan that calls for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down. The vote was 13-2 in favor of the resolution. In blistering remarks, Ambassador Susan Rice says the US is “disgusted” by the vetoes.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
For days, the United Nations Security Council struggled behind the scenes for a resolution condemning the Syrian regime that wouldn’t be vetoed by Russia. Yesterday’s State Department briefing was a study in the diplomatic dance.
But today, with some 250 protesters reportedly massacred yesterday by Assad regime forces in Homs, on the 30th anniversary of massacres infamously carried out by his father, the US, UK, France, and Arab League pressed ahead with their resolution calling for Assad to step away from the presidency.
The resolution garnered all the votes on the UN Security Council save two. But because those two are Russia and China, and they are among the five permanent members of the Security Council, the resolution failed despite winning numerically, 13-2.
US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice delivered a blistering statement to the Security Council in the wake of the vetoes, as you can see above.
Obama issued a very strong statement today prior to the UN vote, as you can see below.
“Thirty years after his father massacred tens of thousands of innocent Syrian men, women, and children in Hama, Bashar al-Assad has demonstrated a similar disdain for human life and dignity. Yesterday the Syrian government murdered hundreds of Syrian citizens, including women and children, in Homs through shelling and other indiscriminate violence, and Syrian forces continue to prevent hundreds of injured civilians from seeking medical help. These brutal killings take place at a time when so many Syrians are also marking a deeply meaningful day for their faith. I strongly condemn the Syrian government’s unspeakable assault against the people of Homs and I offer my deepest sympathy to those who have lost loved ones. Assad must halt his campaign of killing and crimes against his own people now. He must step aside and allow a democratic transition to proceed immediately.
“The Syrian people demonstrated in large numbers across Syria yesterday to participate in peaceful protests commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Hama massacre. They labeled the protests, “We are Sorry, Hama – Forgive Us.” We owe it to the victims of Hama and Homs to learn one lesson: that cruelty must be confronted for the sake of justice and human dignity. Every government has the responsibility to protect its citizens, and any government that brutalizes and massacres its people does not deserve to govern. The Syrian regime’s policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community.
“The international community must work to protect the Syrian people from this abhorrent brutality. Earlier this week, our Arab partners called on UN Security Council members to take action to support a political solution to the crisis in Syria and stop Assad’s “killing machine.” The Council now has an opportunity to stand against the Assad regime’s relentless brutality and to demonstrate that it is a credible advocate for the universal rights that are written into the UN Charter.
“We must work with the Syrian people toward building a brighter future for Syria. A Syria without Assad could be a Syria in which all Syrians are subject to the rule of law and where minorities are able to exercise their legitimate rights and uphold their identities and traditions while acting as fully enfranchised citizens in a unified republic. The United States and our international partners support the Syrian people in achieving their aspirations and will continue to assist the Syrian people toward that goal. We will help because we stand for principles that include universal rights for all people and just political and economic reform. The suffering citizens of Syria must know: we are with you, and the Assad regime must come to an end.”
And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meeting today on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pushed hard for a breakthrough, but got nowhere.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discussed fairness and prosperity as he continued to push his “An America Built To Last” theme, focusing on the housing/mortgage crisis.
Russia, as Rice bitterly notes in her remarks, continues to sell weapons to the Assad regime.
So why are Russia, which has borne the brunt of criticism this week, and China — which emerged from the closet to join in the unusual dual veto at the Security Council — protecting the Assad regime?
Both countries’ leaderships are deeply unsettled by the Arab Awakening. Why? Because it is sweeping away longtime allies, such as Gaddafi in Libya and now, quite possibly, Assad in Syria, who is Russia’s most important ally in the ME.
And because both countries have nascent protest movements which the ruling parties find deeply troubling.
Russia’s gets more publicity because the news media, both domestic and international is afforded more freedom of coverage there. But China is, if anything, even more repressive, freely shutting down Internet access, for example, in ways which would not be tolerated in Russia, and simply blocking international news media from access in some instances.
None of this is new for China. It is a bit new for Russia, which had opened much more to the West during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency, which is now drawing to an end. With the return of Vladimir Putin, whom I’ve met and is one steely son of a gun, to the presidency, the friendly face of the Kremlin is being replaced.
And with the US slowly but surely disentangling itself from its Iraq and Afghanistan entanglements, US interests are more apt to bump up against those of China — as we are seeing in the Asia Pacific region — and Russia, which has been quite helpful in Afghanistan.
So both Russia and China are against establishing a humanitarian interventionist rationale in the internal affairs of countries, a rationale which they fear over the long term could be applied against themselves. And as a result are developing a narrative, as you can see by watching Russia Today, that the US, NATO, and selected Arab powers are engaged in a new imperialist conspiracy.
But Syria is only one place where the big powers are running up against one another.
Another potential flash point exists around Iran.
With talk of Israeli air strikes on Iran again spiking, red hots on the ultra-left are positing an Obama Administration conspiracy with the Jewish state to wage war on the peace-loving Islamic republic while red hots on the far right see the administration as cravenly selling out plucky Zionists taking on the necessary civilizational struggle. Heaven deliver us from loons of both persuasions.
Iran embarked on another set of military exercises today. Initially, at least, they are land and air-based, not naval. Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. But it also warned the US not to have an aircraft carrier in the Gulf, and USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group confidently steamed right back in there. Not that the Iranians couldn’t present some problems in that bathtub.
China is an advocate of Iran, again receiving little notice in the tunnel vision US media, flatly refusing US and European Union entreaties to stop buying Iranian oil as a means of leveraging more pressure on the Islamic republic to drop its nuclear weapons program.
Russia, as one of the world’s leading oil powers, has no interest in buying Iranian oil. And its interests are more complex, since I don’t believe that the Kremlin wants Iran, a current ally of a sort but a rival over the sweep of history, to become a nuclear power, either. Yet it does not want the US and its allies to have their way in the Middle East, either.
While all this goes, Nevada’s Republicans are holding their rather sad afterthought presidential caucuses today.
With Newt Gingrich’s Silver State campaign in evident disarray and Ron Paul’s strength decidedly less than advertised, Mitt Romney is poised for a big Nevada win.
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
With the current state budget creaking under strain and Democratic legislators opposing more near-term budget cuts (while Republicans oppose tax hikes), Brown signed legislation yesterday allowing nearly $900 million in internal borrowing from specialized funds.
** ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT SILVER: HOW NEVADA AND THE WEST GOT SHORT-CHANGED.One of the major untold stories in this wacky election season is how far off plan the Republican presidential primaries have gotten.
The Republican Party planned to copy what the Democrats did in their 2008 election cycle. Stage four early contests, spaced out over time, with one state from each of the major regions, with each of the selected states small enough that prior fame and big money on the part of some competitors would not overwhelm a candidate’s ability to break through.
In the process, the candidates would be forced to learn about regional issues that were not part of the usual Beltway/East Coast “national” media lexicon, and develop a way to appeal to voters in key regions.
In the 2008 cycle, with the firm backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who represents the Silver State, the Democrats elevated Nevada into the First Four, along with traditional one and two Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, as a way to get their candidates ready to compete in the West, a growing area targeted for competition.
It worked.
The first forum, in 2007, with the Democratic presidential candidates took place not in Washington or New York or even Iowa or New Hampshire, but in little Carson City, the capital of Nevada. Hosted by George Stephanopoulos, who memorably mispronounced Nevada in the process, drawing hoots from the crowd, it drew much of the East Coast-based national political media away from their usual haunts.
Las Vegas went on to host some stirring debates between the Democratic presidential contenders.
And on the day of the 2008 Democratic presidential caucuses in Nevada, no less than former President Bill Clinton personally lobbied caucus-goers in a raucous display inside one of the voting gatherings in a casino on the Las Vegas Strip. … From my February 3rd column.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls.
Florida answered several key questions about the race. Would Gingrich blow it (again)? Would Romney buy it? Would the negative out-weigh the positive? Would Gingrich give up if he lost?
** Would Gingrich blow it (again)?
Let us count the ways. Or, mercifully, let us not. I’m not a fan of the media culture’s rampant practice of distance psychoanalysis, though my long-ago psychology minor undoubtedly qualifies me. (That’s a little joke.) But the ex-House speaker does not seem to thrive when he is in the leading role. Perhaps he is more comfortable as the anti-hero, notwithstanding his constant comparisons of himself to some of the most famous protagonists in history.
Gingrich had the chance to take command of the race in November and December. Instead, he declared himself the nominee and then allowed Romney and others to take him down.
In Florida, after he trounced Romney in the state that no Republican nominee has ever lost, Gingrich delivered two meandering debate performances, failed to deliver a consistent positive message, failed to deliver a focused negative message, and allowed the attacks of his enemies to derail him into the defensive politics of personal aggrievement.
** Would Romney buy it? Of course he would. After all, he made his vast fortune as a corporate takeover specialist. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and world class track star Robert Griffin III (aka RG3) of Baylor University in Texas closed out the National Prayer Breakfast, where he was the personal guest of President Barack Obama, on Thursday. He promised not to dunk on the president in any basketball game they might play.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $97.84 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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