The US will deploy its first seaborne special operations base to the waters of the Middle East as part of its response to the Iran crisis.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN, (PARTIALLY) EMERGED FROM STEALTH MODE, MAKES SOME MOVES.
** THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE: IRAN, ISRAEL, AFGHANISTAN.It may well be time to start thinking the unthinkable on Iran, Israel, and Afghanistan.
Consider:
* Israel may be on an inexorable path to an air war against Iran.
* With conventional weapons said by some to be ineffective against Iran’s increasingly underground and hardened nuclear development sites, Israel may come to use nuclear weapons against them.
* And as this melodrama between two governments dominated by conservative religionists plays out, the US and its NATO allies may be on the verge of being run out of Afghanistan in the wake of the latest debacle there.
Israel may well have painted itself into a corner — a metaphor which doesn’t quite work in a dynamic situation — with regard to Iran.
If the present Israeli government really does regard Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons as an “existential threat” to their nation, what would they not do to prevent it? And if conventional bunker buster bombs won’t work, or at least not yet — the Senate approved an advanced version earlier this month, but it apparently won’t be ready till late this year — why would they not use nuclear bunker busters to stop the Iranian program.
And the Iranians certainly seem bent on moving forward with their program, which they publicly insist is for civilian purposes only, despite all the moves against them and despite offers of having nuclear fuel enriched for them.
Israel has placed itself firmly on the path of brinksmanship. It is evidently in an intelligence war with Iran already and threatens overt war.
If Iran continues on its course, as it gives constant, indeed, accelerating signs of doing, especially in the past week, Israel will be faced with a classic go/no-go decision. …
From my new essay.
** NEW POLL: ECONOMY STILL TOP ISSUE FOR VOTERS. A new Gallup Poll reveals that, though there have been some economic improvements, the economy is still easily the top issue for US voters.
Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, so important in Republican primaries, are at the bottom of the list for most voters.
Of course, the economy is always at the top of the list, in good times and bad. But sometimes it is rivaled by other issues.
More than 9 in 10 U.S. registered voters say the economy is extremely (45%) or very important (47%) to their vote in this year’s presidential election. Unemployment, the federal budget deficit, and the 2010 healthcare law also rank near the top of the list of nine issues tested in a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll. …
In years when the economy is strong, although it remains an important issue, Americans have rated other issues just as important or more so. For example, in 1996 and 2000, education ranked as high as the economy, and in 2004, terrorism and the Iraq war did. In down economic years such as 2008 and 2012, the economy has been the clear leader. …
Mitt Romney eked out a narrow win last night in his home state Michigan primary over Rick Santorum. But he is likely to split Michigan’s delegates evenly with the ex-Pennsylvania senator.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama and Biden then met for lunch with Congressional Leadership in the Private Dining.
At 5:20 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host a dinner in honor of the Armed Forces who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn and their families in the East Room. Biden and Dr. Jill Biden also attend.
In the Republican president race, Mitt Romney eked out a win by a few points over Rick Santorum last night in his home state Michigan primary. The two are expected to actually split the delegates from the state.
Romney lost in yesterday’s vote; his narrow popular vote win is due to votes received in advance.
Romney did win easily in the Arizona primary.
The race now moves on to the farflung Super Tuesday primary contests next week, after the Washington state caucuses this weekend.
Obama got very good news this morning with the decision of North Korea to suspend its nuclear weapons program and let in the UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
North Korea is taking this action in exchange for needed international aid.
Not so in the crisis with Iran and Israel, however.
See the piece linked above for an in-depth analysis and discussion.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak will be meeting soon in Washington with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.
Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is coming to town in the next few days, and will meet with Obama in the White House next Monday.
Protests continued today in Afghanistan against the burnings of Qurans at Bagram Air Base nine days ago.
The suspected killer of an American colonel and major in the highly secured Afghan Interior Ministry in Kabul on Saturday has not been apprehended. He is reportedly a 25-year old Afghan intelligence officer.
Despite ongoing international condemnation, Assad regime ground forces are readying a major move against Syrian protest leaders in Homs.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
House Rules Committee chairman David Dreier this morning, as expected, announced that he will retire. He was thrown into a disadvantageous district in the new Citizens Redistricting Commission maps.
The redistricting reform which has cost Dreier his seat passed thanks to the backing of then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Ironically, I recall talking with Dreier and Congresswoman Mary Bono on the Schwarzenegger campaign bus in 2003 about the prospects for a new and more moderate and modern Republican Party.
But it did not happen, despite Schwarzenegger’s efforts, and now the former governor’s efforts have led to the end of Dreier’s congressional career.
Proponents of the ban on same sex marriage opposed by Scwharzenegger and Brown got some terrible news in the new Field Poll, which shows a huge lead for the advocates of same sex marriage.
It’s now 59% to 34%, which means that not only are the oldest voters opposed to gay marriage being replaced by younger voters who are more liberal on the issue, but that actual opinions are changing.
And Brown, paradoxically, has good news in the form of some bad news. Yes, it has been an unusually dry winter in California. The Sierra Nevada snow pack is only 30% of normal for this date. Get a feeling of drought going and Californians may at last be ready to deal with water policy down the line.
On his way back home from a big trip to Washington, Brown stopped over yesterday in LA to meet with American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten.
It should be noted that the AFT is the national parent of the California Federation of Teachers, the number two teachers union in California, which is pushing a tax the rich initiative for November rivaling Brown’s revenue initiative. Which is itself backed by the state’s largest teachers union, the California Teachers Association, which has fare more in political resources than the AFT’s state affiliate.
Today the head of the powerful Service Employees International Union in California, David Kieffer, spoke up again on behalf of Brown’s initiative, urging those who back potentially rival measures to cease and desist.
** DEBATING IN DISARRAY: SEARCHING FOR SOME CLARITY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL MESS.If Wednesday night was the last Republican presidential debate, it sure was another missed opportunity. And a great example of the deep disarray afflicting the Republican field at this stage of the race.
What do we know, in this period after the last debate and before Tuesday’s must-win primaries for Mitt Romney? … From my February 24th essay.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation. … From my February 21st essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A new trailer for a small film called The Avengers. It’s not the ’60s British spy show.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $110 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $76 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $4 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker says it will be Pakistan’s loss if it continues with its plan to boycott the big international conference on Afghanistan’s future starting next Monday in Bonn, Germany. Pakistan adopted this stance late last year after US air strikes against one of its outposts along the border with Afghanistan.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE: IRAN, ISRAEL, AFGHANISTAN.
** QUICK HITS. Putative on and off Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney’s wife Ann “joked” today that she would like to strangle the press, which she says is playing up her husband’s woes because they are for Obama. She wasn’t so critical of the media when they were caught up in the “inevitable Romney” meme. … Yes, it has been an unusually dry winter in California. The Sierra Nevada snow pack is only 30% of normal for this date. Get a feeling of drought going and Californians may at last be ready to deal with water policy down the line. …
** NEW SURVEY: IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE VERY NEGATIVE ON AMERICA. With the nuclear crisis surrounding Iran and Israel at a high level of tension, a new Gallup Poll survey of the Iranian public shows that the view of the US there is among the lowest of any nation in the world.
The good news is that it hasn’t gotten worse in the wake of tough new sanctions imposed by the Obama Administration.
The bad news is that it would be hard for it to have gotten worse.
Only 8% approve of the US, while 67% disapprove.
Yet only 46% support cutting ties with nations such as the US who have imposed these sanctions, while 31% do not.
Intriguingly, Russia and China are not viewed all that much more highly than the US or UK, despite the fact that Moscow and Beijing have done some serious backstopping of Iran, though not always.
Iranians’ already low approval of U.S. leadership did not get worse after the U.S. toughened sanctions in late 2011. Eight percent of Iranians approved of U.S. leadership in late 2011 and early 2012 — one of the lowest ratings the U.S. receives worldwide. While nearly half of Iranians (46%) support cutting ties with countries that impose economic sanctions on Iran, nearly one in three (31%) do not, showing a sizable minority of Iranians still value relations. …
The U.S., the U.K., and the EU in recent months have imposed some of the toughest economic sanctions on Iran yet to thwart its nuclear program. Iran has responded with threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the route for one-fifth of the world’s oil. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on state TV last week that, “no obstacles can stop Iran’s nuclear work.”
Tensions over Iran’s disputed nuclear program escalated further last week after Iran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials to investigate nuclear activities at a military base. The IAEA reported after its recent trip that Iran had stepped up its uranium enrichment, sending oil prices soaring to a nine-month high Friday amid concerns about a confrontation with the West. …
In a speech this morning to the United Auto Workers, President Barack Obama said that critics of his successful rescue plan for the auto industry “are trying to rewrite history.”
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then delivered remarks to the United Auto Workers conference at the Washington Marriott at Wardman Park.
At 9:45 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden have lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
They have much to talk about.
The veteran California political figure meets soon with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is arriving in Washington. The principal topic of discussion, of course, is the crisis with Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s moves, including threatened air strikes, against it.
Obama meets on March 5th with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, who will spend most of next week in the US drumming up support.
No major new developments today, at least on the surface, in the crisis with Iran and Israel.
Protests continued today in Afghanistan against the burnings of Qurans at Bagram Air Base eight days ago.
The suspected killer of an American colonel and major in the highly secured Afghan Interior Ministry in Kabul on Saturday has not been apprehended. He is reportedly a 25-year old Afghan intelligence officer.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this morning denounced efforts by the Assad regime to say that adoption of a new constitution means major change in Syria, where the regime continues cracking down on protesters.
While Obama monitors and manages these multiple geopolitical crises having to do with the Arab Awakening, AfPak, Iran and Israel, and Iraq, the Republicans who hope to challenge him battle it out in today’s primaries.
Mitt Romney will win Arizona, as long expected.
But he is in real trouble in his home state Michigan.
Fearing a loss today in his home state Michigan primary, Mitt Romney charged Rick Santorum with “cheating” by having automated phone calls to Democrats who might vote in the primary.
Or, I should say, a move back to Santorum. Who surged to a lead in the state where Romney’s father was a popular governor and car company CEO, overcoming Romney’s huge lead, only to fall back under the weight of massive negative advertising against him by Romney forces.
The question may be whether or not Romney has enough votes already cast before election day to hold off this late surge for Santorum.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.
On his way back home from a big trip to Washington, Brown stops over today in LA to meet with American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten.
He’s touching base, as he frequently does with major labor and business leaders.
But it should be noted that the AFT is the national parent of the California Federation of Teachers, the number two teachers union in California, which is pushing a tax the rich initiative for November rivaling Brown’s revenue initiative. Which is itself backed by the state’s largest teachers union, the California Teachers Association, which has fare more in political resources than the AFT’s state affiliate.
On Monday, Brown attended the National Governors Association closing session, then took part in a meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House.
Following that, Brown met with the California Congressional delegation and holds some talks with national labor leaders.
He got some expected news late Monday when the state Senate declined to take up his reappointment of Herbert Carter as chairman of the California State University Board of Trustees. The appointment requires a two-thirds vote to extend Carter’s tenure, which began with his appointment by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
But Republicans, seeking relevance in the chamber as their power wanes, opposed Carter, and state Senate leader Darrell Steinberg didn’t bother to push a pointless exercise.
Carter had come under fire from many quarters for CSU’s practice of big pay hikes for top executives even as the system has undergone serious austerity measures.
Brown also got some flak on his budget in the form of an assessment by the Legislative Analyst Office, which says that the administration is overstating future revenues in the latest budget.
The dispute is over how much there will be in the way of capital gains as the economy improves, as IPOs increase, and as the stock market goes up. The LAO takes a more conservative view than the state’s Department of Finance.
** DEBATING IN DISARRAY: SEARCHING FOR SOME CLARITY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL MESS.If Wednesday night was the last Republican presidential debate, it sure was another missed opportunity. And a great example of the deep disarray afflicting the Republican field at this stage of the race.
What do we know, in this period after the last debate and before Tuesday’s must-win primaries for Mitt Romney? … From my February 24th essay.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation. … From my February 21st essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $108 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $74 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $6 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
More attacks on Monday in Afghanistan in the ongoing wave of anti-American protest, including a bombing at the airport in Jalalabad that killed nine people.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE: IRAN, ISRAEL, AFGHANISTAN.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
A huge week on tap in presidential politics, with much of the action for President Barack Obama occurring off-stage and overseas even as the Republican presidential race holds primaries tomorrow in Michigan and Arizona. And another intriguing week in California politics, as Governor Jerry Brown wraps up a big trip to Washington and continues working on the November initiatives, his high-speed rail revamp, and the chronic state budget crisis.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue battling before Tuesday primaries in the Romney strongholds of Michigan, Romney’s home state, where his father was a popular governor and car company CEO, and Arizona, where Romney has a built-in advantage with a large Mormon vote. Romney appears to have a sizeable lead again in Arizona, but his lead in the latest polls in Michigan is more like a statistical tie. These states were viewed as slam dunks for Romney only a few weeks ago, so any wins tomorrow will do nothing more for him than stanch the intense bleeding.
As the Republican presidential field staggers forward, major geopolitical crises are unfolding.
The weekend brought stunning news from Afghanistan, where two relatively high-ranking US officers, a colonel and a major, were murdered early Saturday in a highly secure area of the Afghan Interior Ministry headquarters in Kabul. The Taliban have claimed credit for the killings, apparently carried out by a young Afghan intelligence officer.
Just hours later, Marine General John Allen, with whom I’m acquainted from many years ago, ordered the end of all regular US/NATO advisory missions inside Afghan ministries.
This was just more bad news from Afghanistan, during yet another day of widespread demonstrations against America across the country in which several more people were killed.
Obama has apologized after Afghan employees at the big Bagram Air Base discovered that Korans and other Islamic religious material were being burned by US military personnel on Monday. The Afghan Parliament moved Wednesday to require that any US personnel involved in the debacle be turned over for trial by sharia law. Failure to comply would lead to the US being denied access to the country after 2014.
More than 40 people have been killed so far, with four of them Americans.
As Afghanistan moves toward the boiling point for the US and NATO presence there, the looming crisis with Iran and Israel has ratcheted up further.
First came word from the UN’s nuclear watchdog that Iran has accelerated nuclear enrichment efforts beyond those needed for their expressed civilian purposes. Then came another warning from Iran’s defense minister against any Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. Israel, he declared, would not survive a war.
This comes after the UN nuclear watchdog’s visit to Iran ended ahead of schedule on Tuesday when Tehran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors any access to key nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, some 70 mostly Western and Arab nations met Friday in Tunis, capital of Tunisia, where the Friends of Syria demanded an immediate ceasefire by the Assad regime and the granting of access for the provision of humanitarian relief to besieged portions of the country.
Speaking at the Friends of Syria gathering, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton blasted Russia and China as “despicable” for opposing U.N. Security Council action on Syria.
Gulf Arab states are pushing for more, namely for direct intervention in Syria. Qatar wants an Arab force sent into the country to bring order. Saudi Arabia, which showily walked out of the conference, its reps claiming the contact group isn’t aggressive enough, wants to arm the Syrian opposition.
On Sunday, Syria actually held an election, lightly-attended naturally, in which the Assad regime’s reform plan passed. Not surprisingly. But it’s an afterthought which does nothing to change the dynamic there, and gives precious little for Assad regime apologists like Russia, China, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba to hang their hats on. Indeed, Chinese officials, mindful of the pasting the PRC is receiving in international circles, have been in Damascus urging a slowdown of the violence.
Back in California politics, the dynamics are far less dramatic, but remain intriguing.
Conservative Republicans on Friday barely qualified a November referendum to do away with the bipartisan Citizens Redistricting Commission’s new maps for state Senate districts. The effort, which cost the state Republican Party more than $2 million which it does not otherwise have, made it to the ballot with fewer than 7000 signatures to spare.
Will the party now spend the many millions more it would take to try to win the election? Or will it accede to the obvious, that it has no hope as a sour grapes effort, especially in light of its failure before to get the state Supreme Court to draw new lines even if the referendum qualified?
I expect the latter, because there is simply no money. Indeed, state Senate Republican sources say their money will go to try to defend their districts and try to win one or two swing districts, rather than pursue the referendum.
Meanwhile, the California Republican Party held the first of its two annual conventions this weekend near the San Francisco Airport in Burlingame, a thoroughly desultory affair which I discussed on last Friday and earlier in the week. Very little of any substance occurred there, and nothing of particular interest.
The party has no significant candidate to run against U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein this year, and no serious contender to take on Governor Jerry Brown in 2014 was on hand or indeed is on the horizon. Some ultra-rich person might be tempted, of course, but they need look only at billionaire Meg Whitman’s landslide loss little more than a year ago, when the Romney protege broke all spending records for a non-presidential campaign in American history.
For his part, Brown is wrapping up a big trip to Washington, the first of his governorship. Well, this particular governorship. He appeared on Meet the Press on Sunday and continues to meet with a host of major officials, while also continuing work on his November revenue initiative, high-speed rail, and other top priorities. We won’t know for a while what Brown has gotten from his meetings, which are being very closely held.
Though one thing is clear already.
Brown had lunch on Friday with People’s Republic of China Ambassador to the U.S. Zhang Yesui. Following that, he met with State Department officials. Brown, who hosted Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping for two days the week before last and announced new California trade offices in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as a California/China task force, not surprisingly plans a China trip later this year.
Prior to that, on Thursday night, Brown appeared at a fundraiser for his revenue initiative hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, former Clinton White House chief of staff, and an old colleague of mine from Gary Hart for President days, Mike Stratton.
On yesterday’s edition of Meet the Press, Brown appeared opposite Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, who announced her endorsement of Romney in tomorrow’s primary and continued bashing Obama, who was vigorously defended by Brown. Brown decried the drift to war with Iran and noted how his blend of pragmatic (budget-cutting) and visionary (high-speed rail, renewable energy, etc.) programs, which confounds some, is actually the same thing in a dynamic environment.
Later, hours before he and First Lady/Special Counsel Anne Gust Brown went to dinner at the White House, Brown got into a bit of a hassle with a decidedly clueless Washington Times reporter, who falsely claimed that Ronald Reagan followed Brown as governor (it’s the reverse, of course), that Brown was defeated for re-election (he won by 20 points in a landslide even bigger than his pasting of Meg Whitman), and that California has a worsening budget crisis under Brown and is going bankrupt (actually, well, you know). Brown and members of his small traveling party disputed this in lively fashion, with Brown asking if the reporter is “a Moonie.” (The paper, which is quite right-wing and low-quality, is owned by Rev. Sun Myung Moon’s Unification Church.)
Is it a good thing, in such a situation, to get into it at all with an ignorant ideologue? It’s not my flavor of ice cream, but it doesn’t matter much.
Brown received good news at the end of last week in the form of the latest Field Poll, which shows that his initiative is favored by nearly 60% of California voters. The potential rival “Millionaires Tax” initiative, is also around the 60% mark, doing marginally better than Brown’s at first blush.
But the latter, of course, is far more likely to draw heavily funded opposition, and the coalition of a few smaller unions and left-wing groups probably lacks the resources for a hotly contested campaign.
Not lacking in resources is the proponent of of a third tax hike measure, heiress Molly Munger, whose billionaire father is Warren Buffett’s business partner. But she does seem to be lacking in political sense.
As I’ve been saying and writing all along, Munger’s measure, which would raise income taxes on most everyone in the state while raising money for education, does not fare well in polling. In fact, the Field Poll shows its starting out losing, with a plurality of voters in opposition.
This is simply Politics 101. You don’t start out a tax hike campaign in a losing position in California and end up winning. But, of course, extremely rich people sometimes imagine that they are immune to how things actually work.
In fact, she hasn’t taken the hint at all.She’s told her operatives to start gathering signatures. People seldom get paid much, if anything, to tell the wayward super-rich in politics to save their money.
But at a certain point, the light will dawn.
Incidentally, here is what Obama’s week looks like. As usual, it leaves plenty of room for crisis monitoring and management. And as usual, it reflects hardly at all what is going on behind the scenes with regard to those crises.
On Monday, Obama and Biden host a meeting with the National Governors Association in the State Dining Room. On Tuesday, Obama delivers remarks at the United Auto Workers conference in Washington.
On Wednesday, Obama and the first lady will host a dinner at the White House to honor Armed Forces personnel who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn and to honor their families. This dinner will include hopefully representative men and women in uniform from all ranks, services, states and backgrounds.
On Thursday, Obama will travel to Nashua, New Hampshire, and deliver remarks on the economy. In the evening, Obama will attend fundraisers in New York City. And on Friday, Obama will travel to the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, to visit with wounded veterans of the Afghan War and the Iraq War.
Pentagon spokesman George Little said Monday morning that the US is “fully committed” to its strategy in Afghanistan, despite a week of protests over the burning of Qurans at Bagram Air Base and the murder of senior US officers inside the highly secure Afghan Interior Ministry in Kabul.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden then hosted a meeting with the National Governors Association in the State Dining Room.
At 12:15 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama attends a fundraiser at The Jefferson Hotel.
Obama is monitoring multiple geopolitical crises having to do with the Arab Awakening, AfPak, Iran and Israel, and Iraq.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington.
Brown attends the National Governors Association closing session, then takes part in a meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House.
Following that, Brown meets with the California Congressional delegation and holds some talks with labor leaders.
** DEBATING IN DISARRAY: SEARCHING FOR SOME CLARITY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL MESS.If Wednesday night was the last Republican presidential debate, it sure was another missed opportunity. And a great example of the deep disarray afflicting the Republican field at this stage of the race.
What do we know, in this period after the last debate and before Tuesday’s must-win primaries for Mitt Romney? … From my February 24th essay.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation. … From my February 21st essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $109 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $75 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $5 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
NATO announced all that foreign advisors will be pulled out of their posts at government ministries in Kabul, capital of Afghanistan. US Marine General John Allen made the move on Saturday just hours after the murders of an American colonel and major in the Ministry of Interior headquarters in the capital. The killings are part of a wave of anti-American protest which continues to sweep Afghanistan in the wake of Monday’s burnings of Islamic holy books by US personnel at Bagram Air Base.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE: IRAN, ISRAEL, AFGHANISTAN.
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
On Saturday, Obama has no public events scheduled.
At 4:10 PM Pacific on Sunday, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will welcome the National Governors Association to the White House for the 2012 Governors’ Dinner. Vice President Joe Biden and Dr. Jill Biden will also attend.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue battling it out this weekend before primaries in the Romney strongholds of Michigan, Romney’s home state, and Arizona.
As the seriously disarrayed Republican field plays out its dynamics, major geopolitical crises are unfolding.
Stunning news from Afghanistan, where two relatively high-ranking US officers, a colonel and a major, were murdered early Saturday in a highly secure area of the Afghan Interior Ministry headquarters in Kabul. The Taliban have claimed credit for the killings, first reported to be carried out by an Afghan police officer with security clearance, though Afghan officials have just told the BBC that it is not clear who pulled the trigger.
Just hours later, Marine General John Allen, with whom I’m acquainted from many years ago, ordered the end of all regular US/NATO advisory missions inside Afghan ministries.
This was just more bad news from Afghanistan, during yet another day of widespread demonstrations against America across the country in which several more people were killed.
Obama has apologized after Afghan employees at the big Bagram Air Base discovered that Korans and other Islamic religious material were being burned by US military personnel on Monday. The Afghan Parliament moved Wednesday to require that any US personnel involved in the debacle be turned over for trial by sharia law. Failure to comply would lead to the US being denied access to the country after 2014.
Then on Thursday two US soldiers were killed by an Afghan officer at a coalition military base in eastern Afghanistan.
More than 30 people have been killed so far, with four of them Americans.
As Afghanistan moves toward the boiling point for the US and NATO presence there, the looming crisis with Iran and Israel has ratcheted up further.
First came word from the UN’s nuclear watchdog that Iran has accelerated nuclear enrichment efforts beyond those needed for their expressed civilian purposes.
Then came another warning from a top Iranian general against any Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program.
This comes after the UN nuclear watchdog’s visit to Iran ended ahead of schedule on Tuesday when Tehran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors any access to key nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, some 70 mostly Western and Arab nations met Friday in Tunis, capital of Tunisia, where the Friends of Syria demanded an immediate ceasefire by the Assad regime and the granting of access for the provision of humanitarian relief to besieged portions of the country.
Speaking at the Friends of Syria gathering, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton blasted Russia and China as “despicable” for opposing U.N. Security Council action on Syria.
Gulf Arab states are pushing for more, namely for direct intervention in Syria. Qatar wants an Arab force sent into the country to bring order. Saudi Arabia, which showily walked out of the conference, its reps claiming the contact group isn’t aggressive enough, wants to arm the Syrian opposition.
Here’s what Obama’s public week ahead looks like. Obviously his intense focus on the major geopolitical crises is not at all reflected in it.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama talks up his “all-of-the-above approach” to addressing national energy challenges.
On Monday, Obama and Biden will host a meeting with the National Governors Association in the State Dining Room.
On Tuesday, Obama will deliver remarks at the United Auto Workers conference in Washington.
On Wednesday, Obama and the first lady will host a dinner at the White House to honor Armed Forces personnel who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn and to honor their families. This dinner will include men and women in uniform from all ranks, services, states and backgrounds, representative of the many thousands of Americans who served in Iraq.
On Thursday, Obama will travel to Nashua, New Hampshire, and deliver remarks on the economy. In the evening, Obama will attend fundraisers in New York City.
On Friday, Obama will travel to the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, to visit with wounded service members.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington.
On Saturday, he takes part in the National Governors Association meeting.
On Sunday, Brown takes part in the Western Governors Association meeting.
Brown also appears on NBC’s Meet the Press.
Following that, he meets with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.
On Sunday evening, he attends the Governors’ Dinner at the White House with President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama.
On Monday, Brown takes part in the National Governors Association closing session, then attends a meeting with President Obama.
Following that, Brown meets with the California Congressional delegation.
On Thursday, he met with U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan, not one of his favorite officials. Brown is rather critical of the Obama Administration’s testing-based approach on education reform.
On Thursday night, Brown appeared at a fundraiser for his revenue initiative hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, former Clinton White House chief of staff, and an old colleague of mine from Gary Hart for President days, Mike Stratton.
On Friday, he took part in a Democratic Governors Association meeting with President Barack Obama and other top officials at the Eisenhower Executive Office Bldg.
Brown then had lunch with People’s Republic of China Ambassador to the U.S. Zhang Yesui.
Following that, he met with State Department officials and attended the Democratic Governors Association dinner.
Brown, who hosted Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping last week and announced new California trade offices in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as a California/China task force, not surprisingly plans a China trip later this year.
Conservative Republicans on Friday barely qualified a November referendum to do away with the bipartisan Citizens Redistricting Commission’s new maps for state Senate districts. The effort, which cost the state Republican Party more than $2 million which it does not otherwise have, made it to the ballot with fewer than 7000 signatures to spare.
Will the party now spend the many millions more it would take to try to win the election? Or will it accede to the obvious, that it has no hope as a sour grapes effort, especially in light of its failure before to get the state Supreme Court to draw new lines even if the referendum qualified?
Meanwhile, the California Republican Party is holding the first of its two annual conventions this weekend near the San Francisco Airport in Burlingame, a thoroughly desultory affair which I discussed on Friday and earlier in the week. I won’t be attending, obviously.
** DEBATING IN DISARRAY: SEARCHING FOR SOME CLARITY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL MESS.If Wednesday night was the last Republican presidential debate, it sure was another missed opportunity. And a great example of the deep disarray afflicting the Republican field at this stage of the race.
What do we know, in this period after the last debate and before Tuesday’s must-win primaries for Mitt Romney?
* Rick Santorum makes only a so-so frontrunner.
In the latest Gallup Poll, Santorum has expanded his lead over Romney among Republicans nationally. Santorum now leads Romney, 36% to 26%. Gingrich, the former leader, is now a distant third at 13%. Paul, his much-hyped libertarian uprising having fallen short even in lightly-attended caucus states, brings up the rear with 11%.
Santorum is an effective speaker and a good debater. He has a generally pleasant manner yet carries some authority. But he allowed himself to be thrown off his game by Romney’s relentless attacks in his first debate as the frontrunner.
He can’t have been surprised by Romney’s approach. It’s what Romney does when he’s in trouble. He doesn’t play up the passion of his positive message, such as it is, he launches attacks.
* Ron Paul is Romney’s de facto ally.
Paul again showed himself to be Romney’s wing man. Rather than criticize the notorious flip-flopper Romney, Paul instead attacked the staunchly conservative Santorum as a “fake” conservative. Santorum seemed a bit taken aback that Paul would do this to his face. He should not have been surprised.
Paul’s extreme laissez-faire economic philosophy gives pseudo-intellectual cover for Romney’s Wall Street economics, which are all about financialized capitalism and how anyone with any criticism of it, even after the disasters of the past several years, is a socialist. And his millions in funds from zealous supporters are employed to attack Romney’s chief rivals.
Paul, who was unintentionally amusing in his denunciation of any spending on foreign aid during the debate — gosh gee, why in the globally interconnected world of the 21st century would we have a foreign policy? — is also attacking Santorum with TV ads. He did that with Newt Gingrich as well, when Gingrich rose to supplant Romney’s frontrunnership.
But he doesn’t go after Romney, whose all-over-the-lot politics and deep establishmentarianism would be a massive target for a genuinely anti-establishment candidate. …
From my February 24th essay.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation.
It’s important to note that some issues exist with respect to Obama in New York that aren’t the case in California.
Some $4 million of last week’s haul came in three events in San Francisco, which included attendees from nearby Silicon Valley, with the rest from events in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Intriguingly, Obama’s extremely formidable California fundraising machine relies hardly at all on the state’s popular Democratic governor or on its dominant Democratic Party organization.
Instead, Obama has forged an operation largely his own, fusing his highly successful 2008 primary campaign organization with that of Hillary Clinton, building on strong potential support bases in Silicon Valley and Hollywood, fusing those with more traditional sources of funds from the professions, real estate, and finance. It’s a more variegated approach than in New York, which is heavily dependent on Wall Street. And it has flourished despite disappointing some, such as Hollywood interests who wanted to crack down on the Internet and its potential for piracy and those who worry that Obama hasn’t gone far enough on the environment, or has gone too far in Afghanistan. … From my February 21st essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Act of Valor, which began as a semi-documentary/recruiting video for the US Navy SEALs and became a feature film, opened this weekend as the number one movie at the North American box office. The film is directed by someone who will direct one of former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s upcoming films.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $109.77 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $76 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $4 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Speaking at the Friends of Syria gathering today in Tunisia, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton blasted Russia and China as “despicable” for opposing U.N. Security Council action on Syria.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE: IRAN, ISRAEL, AFGHANISTAN.
** DEBATING IN DISARRAY: SEARCHING FOR SOME CLARITY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL MESS.If Wednesday night was the last Republican presidential debate, it sure was another missed opportunity. And a great example of the deep disarray afflicting the Republican field at this stage of the race.
What do we know, in this period after the last debate and before Tuesday’s must-win primaries for Mitt Romney?
* Rick Santorum makes only a so-so frontrunner.
In the latest Gallup Poll, Santorum has expanded his lead over Romney among Republicans nationally. Santorum now leads Romney, 36% to 26%. Gingrich, the former leader, is now a distant third at 13%. Paul, his much-hyped libertarian uprising having fallen short even in lightly-attended caucus states, brings up the rear with 11%.
Santorum is an effective speaker and a good debater. He has a generally pleasant manner yet carries some authority. But he allowed himself to be thrown off his game by Romney’s relentless attacks in his first debate as the frontrunner.
He can’t have been surprised by Romney’s approach. It’s what Romney does when he’s in trouble. He doesn’t play up the passion of his positive message, such as it is, he launches attacks.
* Ron Paul is Romney’s de facto ally.
Paul again showed himself to be Romney’s wing man. Rather than criticize the notorious flip-flopper Romney, Paul instead attacked the staunchly conservative Santorum as a “fake” conservative. Santorum seemed a bit taken aback that Paul would do this to his face. He should not have been surprised.
Paul’s extreme laissez-faire economic philosophy gives pseudo-intellectual cover for Romney’s Wall Street economics, which are all about financialized capitalism and how anyone with any criticism of it, even after the disasters of the past several years, is a socialist. And his millions in funds from zealous supporters are employed to attack Romney’s chief rivals.
Paul, who was unintentionally amusing in his denunciation of any spending on foreign aid during the debate — gosh gee, why in the globally interconnected world of the 21st century would we have a foreign policy? — is also attacking Santorum with TV ads. He did that with Newt Gingrich as well, when Gingrich rose to supplant Romney’s frontrunnership.
But he doesn’t go after Romney, whose all-over-the-lot politics and deep establishmentarianism would be a massive target for a genuinely anti-establishment candidate. …
Afghan officials said Friday that at least seven people were killed in protests around the country against the burning of Qurans at a U.S. air base, bringing the overall death toll after four days of demonstrations to at least 20, including two Americans killed by an Afghan soldier.
** FRIDAY FUNHOUSE. As the Republican presidential field, seeking clarity in its incipient disarray, reaches the final weekend of campaigning before Romney-must win contests next Tuesday in home state Michigan and Arizona, home to a large Mormon population, President Barack Obama is back in the White House following a big trip to swing state Florida, where he raised some big dollars as well. He has a far less festive situation on his hands in dealing with multiple and growing geopolitical crises.
For his part, Governor Jerry Brown is in the midst of a big trip to Washington, the first of his governorship. He appears on Meet the Press on Sunday and meets with a host of major officials, while also continuing work on his November revenue initiative, high-speed rail, and other top priorities.
Brown got good news today in the form of the latest Field Poll, which shows that his initiative is favored by nearly 60% of California voters. The potential rival “Millionaires Tax” initiative, is also around the 60% mark, doing marginally better than Brown’s at first blush.
But the latter, of course, is far more likely to draw heavily funded opposition, and the coalition of a few smaller unions and left-wing groups probably lacks the resources for a hotly contested campaign.
Not lacking in resources is the proponent of of a third tax hike measure, heiress Molly Munger, whose billionaire father is Warren Buffett’s business partner. But she does seem to be lacking in political sense.
As I’ve been saying and writing all along, her measure, which would raise income taxes on most everyone in the state while raising money for education, does not fare well in polling. In fact, the Field Poll shows its starting out losing, with a plurality of voters in opposition.
Er, Politics 101. You don’t start out a tax hike campaign in a losing position in California and end up winning.
But, of course, extremely rich people sometimes imagine that they are immune to how things actually work.
In fact, she hasn’t taken the hint at all.She’s told her operatives to start gathering signatures. Remember, people seldom get paid much, if anything, to tell rich novices to save their money.
While Brown operates in Washington, the California Republican Party has the first of its two annual conventions this weekend at a San Francisco airport hotel. It’s a desultory and largely irrelevant affair, with only Newt Gingrich on hand to lend it any air of importance whatsoever.
The Republicans have no serious candidate to run against Senator Dianne Feinstein and have failed in their dead-ender strategy to try to derail the work of the Citizens Redistricting Commission.
They made a big mistake in not following the path set out for them by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in his September 2007 convention speech outside Palm Springs, in which he urged the party to arrest its slide toward the right. Instead of following the advice of Schwarzenegger, who had won a second landslide election as governor of California less than year earlier, the party instead accelerated its dash to the far right, embracing cynical talk radio hosts like KFI’s John and Ken — now suspended for calling Whitney Houston “a crack ho” — blogger ideologues, and Beltway anti-government lobbyist Grover Norquist as their spiritual guides.
Obama got good economic news yesterday, with unemployment claims steady for the past week at the lowest level in four years.
And his would-be Republican opponents are fighting it out, viciously, as we approach Tuesday’s primaries in two must-win states for Romney. Rick Santorum still leads Romney in Romney’s home state of Michigan, in all but one poll, and is close in Arizona, which has a large Mormon population.
As the seriously disarrayed Republican field plays out its dynamics, major geopolitical crises are unfolding.
This comes after the UN nuclear watchdog’s visit to Iran ended ahead of schedule on Tuesday when Tehran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors any access to key nuclear facilities.
Thus further ratcheting up the crisis, and making it ever more difficult for Iran’s apologists to claim that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
The drift to war with Iran will only continue.
It’s a complex situation, as the extremists on all sides are wrong. Those plumping for war won’t or can’t say how it could possibly work out. Their track record on Iraq argues that they should be ignored, but our amnesiac, ahistorical and ADD media makes that impossible. And the reflexive opponents of war must come to grips with the fact that the Iranian regime is anything but an innocent actor.
Meanwhile, some 70 mostly Western and Arab nations meeting today in Tunis, capital of Tunisia, as the Friends of Syria are demanding an immediate ceasefire by the Assad regime and the granting of access for the provision of humanitarian relief to besieged portions of the country.
Gulf Arab states are pushing for more, namely for direct intervention in Syria. Qatar wants an Arab force sent into the country to bring order. Saudi Arabia, which showily walked out of the conference, its reps claiming the contact group isn’t aggressive enough, wants to arm the Syrian opposition.
And Hamas, a longtime ally of Syria and, at times, of Iran, today turned on the Assad regime, identifying itself with the Syrian protesters.
There is more bad news from Afghanistan, where Obama has apologized after Afghan employees at the big Bagram Air Base discovered that Korans and other Islamic religious material were being burned by US military personnel. The Afghan Parliament moved Wednesday to require that any US personnel involved in the debacle be turned over for trial by sharia law. Failure to comply would lead to the US being denied access to the country after 2014.
Then on Thursday two US soldiers were killed by a man in Afghan Army uniform at a coalition military base in eastern Afghanistan.
Today protests erupted again across Afghanistan. This is a problem that is not going away.
Days before a must-win primary in his home state of Michigan, Mitt Romney highlighted his staunchly supply-side economic plan in what was billed as a major campaign speech delivered at a cavernous and largely empty football stadium in Detroit.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama arrived back at the White House early this morning following his trip to Florida.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 8:15 AM Pacific, he attends the Democratic Governors’ Association Meeting in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.
At 12 noon Pacific, he holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark in the Oval Office.
Obama is also dealing with a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly concerning the Arab Awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington.
Yesterday he met with U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan, not one of his favorite officials. Brown is rather critical of the Obama Administration’s testing-based approach on education reform.
Last night, Brown appeared at a fundraiser for his revenue initiative hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, former Clinton White House chief of staff, and an old colleague of mine from Gary Hart days, Mike Stratton.
Today, he takes part in a Democratic Governors Association meeting with President Barack Obama and other top officials at the Eisenhower Executive Office Bldg.
Brown then has lunch with People’s Republic of China Ambassador to the U.S. Zhang Yesui.
Following that, he meets with State Department officials and attends the Democratic Governors Association dinner.
On Saturday, he takes part in the National Governors Association meeting.
On Sunday, Brown takes part in the Western Governors Association meeting.
Brown also appears on NBC’s Meet the Press.
Following that, he meets with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.
On Sunday evening, he attends the Governors’ Dinner at the White House with President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama.
On Monday, Brown takes part in the National Governors Association closing session, then attends a meeting with President Obama.
Following that, Brown meets with the California Congressional delegation.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation.
It’s important to note that some issues exist with respect to Obama in New York that aren’t the case in California.
Some $4 million of last week’s haul came in three events in San Francisco, which included attendees from nearby Silicon Valley, with the rest from events in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Intriguingly, Obama’s extremely formidable California fundraising machine relies hardly at all on the state’s popular Democratic governor or on its dominant Democratic Party organization.
Instead, Obama has forged an operation largely his own, fusing his highly successful 2008 primary campaign organization with that of Hillary Clinton, building on strong potential support bases in Silicon Valley and Hollywood, fusing those with more traditional sources of funds from the professions, real estate, and finance. It’s a more variegated approach than in New York, which is heavily dependent on Wall Street. And it has flourished despite disappointing some, such as Hollywood interests who wanted to crack down on the Internet and its potential for piracy and those who worry that Obama hasn’t gone far enough on the environment, or has gone too far in Afghanistan. … From my February 21st essay.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran. …
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran. … From my February 16th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $110 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $76 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $4 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama says simply calling for more drilling is just a “bumper sticker,” not a real plan for bringing down rising gas prices. Obama says his administration’s “all-of-the-above strategy” is the “only real solution.”
** QUICK HITS.Iran, which this week refused to allow UN inspectors access, bringing their visit to a quick halt, appears to be pushing forward to expand nuclear enrichment activity deep inside another mountain fastness. … Some 70 mostly Western and Arab nations meeting Friday in Tunis, capital of Tunisia, as the Friends of Syria are expected to demand an immediate ceasefire by the Assad regime and the granting of access for the provision of humanitarian relief to besieged portions of the country. … Heiress Molly Munger hasn’t taken the hint regarding her California income tax hike for nearly all initiative to give more money to the schools, which does not poll at all well. She’s told her operatives to start gathering signatures. Remember, people seldom get paid much, if anything, to tell rich novices to save their money.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … DEBATING THE DISARRAY: THE REPUBLICANS’ SEARCH FOR CLARITY AFTER THEIR BIG DUKEAROO.
** NEW POLL: OBAMA MORE POPULAR THAN REPUBLICAN WOULD-BE RIVALS. This should not exactly be a news flash, but a new Gallup Poll reveals that President Barack Obama is viewed more favorably by voters than any of his would-be Republican opponents.
But Obama has a high unfavorable rating, too, in this very hyper-partisan environment.
Obama is 50-48 favorable/unfavorable.
In contrast, Ron Paul is 39/40, Mitt Romney is 39/47, Rick Santorum is 35/38, and Newt Gingrich is 26/61.
Gingrich, of course, has borne the brunt of attacks from Romney and Paul, as well as much of the media.
Almost all Americans have an opinion about President Obama. On the other hand, despite the high-intensity Republican nomination campaign of the past year, the percentage of Americans who know enough about the four GOP candidates to give an opinion varies widely. Eighty-seven percent are able to rate Gingrich, 86% can rate Romney, 79% Paul, and 73% Santorum.
Santorum, Obama, and Paul are essentially tied when the results are recalculated to take into account only those who give an opinion; roughly half of Americans with an opinion rate each favorably and half unfavorably. Opinions of Romney using this recalculated base skew slightly more negative, while 70% of those with an opinion of Gingrich rate him negatively. …
Violence over the burning of copies of the Quran by NATO troops at a military base in Afghanistan has spread, prompting President Barack Obama to issue an apology and the Afghan government to demand trial and punishment for those responsible. As protests over the incident continued for a third day on Thursday, the death toll of Afghan demonstrators rose to 12. And two US soldiers were killed today by an apparent Afghan soldier on a military base.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Florida.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then flew on Air Force One to Miami, Florida.
At 10:25 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Miami.
At 10:45 AM Pacific, Obama tours the Industrial Assessment Center at the University of Miami.
At 11:25 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks to University of Miami students and faculty members at the University of Miami Field House.
At 1:20 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Florida.
At 2:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at a private residence.
At 4 PM Pacific, Obama departs Miami, Florida on Air Force One en route Orlando, Florida.
At 5:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Orlando, Florida.
At 5:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser in a private residence.
At 7:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Orlando, Florida on Air Force One en route Joint Base Andrews.
Romney got good economic news this morning, with unemployment claims steady for the past week at the lowest level in four years.
No one dominated or distinguished themselves in last night’s Republican presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona, which was a nasty display on the whole marked throughout by negativity, much of it deployed against new Republican presidential frontrunner Rick Santorum by longtime favorite Mitt Romney and his libertarian sidekick, Ron Paul.
Santorum still leads Romney in Romney’s home state of Michigan, in all but one poll, and is close in Arizona. More to follow.
In a vicious but lackluster display, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum traded verbal punches about health care, spending earmarks and federal bailouts last night in what might have been the final Republican presidential debate.
As the seriously disarrayed Republican field plays out its dynamics, major geopolitical crises are unfolding.
More bad news from Afghanistan, where the US has apologized after Afghan employees at the big Bagram Air Base discovered that Korans and other Islamic religious material were being burned. The Afghan Parliament moved yesterday to require that any US personnel involved in the debacle be turned over for trial by sharia law. Failure to comply would lead to the US being denied access to the country after 2014.
Then today two US soldiers were killed by a man in Afghan Army uniform at a coalition military base in eastern Afghanistan.
The UN nuclear watchdog’s visit to Iran ended ahead of schedule on Tuesday when Tehran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors any access to key nuclear facilities.
Thus further ratcheting up the crisis, and making it ever more difficult for Iran’s apologists to claim that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
The Syrian crisis has also ratcheted up with the killing of two Western journalists.
The Friends of Syria, aka the International Contact Group on Syria, will convene tomorrw in Tunisia, where the Arab Awakening began. Russia has refused to participate, and China has not yet replied.
Meanwhile, over 50 people were killed today in a series of bomb attacks across Baghdad and other parts of Iraq, which the government blames on Al Qaeda and links to next month’s scheduled Arab League summit in Baghdad.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Washington.
At 11 AM Pacific, he meets with U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan at the Department of Education.
As first reported on Tuesday in Governors Journal, Brown is attending this year’s National Governors Association meeting in Washington, an event he skipped last year while he was heavily focused on bipartisan negotiations over California’s chronic budget crisis.
During his five-day trip, Brown will meet with President Barack Obama, top Obama Administration officials, and the California Congressional delegation.
Tonight, Brown will appear at a fundraiser for his revenue initiative hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, former Clinton White House chief of staff, and an old colleague of mine from Gary Hart days, Mike Stratton.
Tomorrow, he takes part in a Democratic Governors Association meeting with President Barack Obama and other top officials at the Eisenhower Executive Office Bldg.
Brown then has lunch with People’s Republic of China Ambassador to the U.S. Zhang Yesui.
Following that, he meets with State Department officials and attends the Democratic Governors Association dinner.
On Saturday, he takes part in the National Governors Association meeting.
On Sunday, Brown takes part in the Western Governors Association meeting.
Brown also appears on NBC’s Meet the Press.
Following that, he meets with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.
On Sunday evening, he attends the Governors’ Dinner at the White House with President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama.
On Monday, Brown takes part in the National Governors Association closing session, then attends a meeting with President Obama.
Following that, Brown meets with the California Congressional delegation.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation.
It’s important to note that some issues exist with respect to Obama in New York that aren’t the case in California.
Some $4 million of last week’s haul came in three events in San Francisco, which included attendees from nearby Silicon Valley, with the rest from events in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Intriguingly, Obama’s extremely formidable California fundraising machine relies hardly at all on the state’s popular Democratic governor or on its dominant Democratic Party organization.
Instead, Obama has forged an operation largely his own, fusing his highly successful 2008 primary campaign organization with that of Hillary Clinton, building on strong potential support bases in Silicon Valley and Hollywood, fusing those with more traditional sources of funds from the professions, real estate, and finance. It’s a more variegated approach than in New York, which is heavily dependent on Wall Street. And it has flourished despite disappointing some, such as Hollywood interests who wanted to crack down on the Internet and its potential for piracy and those who worry that Obama hasn’t gone far enough on the environment, or has gone too far in Afghanistan. … From my February 21st essay.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran. …
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran. … From my February 16th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A rare “solar tornado,” possibly the size of Earth with 300,000 mile per hour winds, has been caught on camera by the Solar Dynamics Observatory of NASA.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $108 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $74 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $6 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
A top United Nations nuclear official says his team “could not find a way forward” in attempts to persuade Iran to talk about suspected secret work on nuclear weapons.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … DEBATING THE DISARRAY: THE REPUBLICANS’ SEARCH FOR CLARITY AFTER THEIR BIG DUKEAROO.
** QUICK HITS.More bad news from Afghanistan, where the US has apologized after Afghan employees at the big Bagram Air Base discovered that Korans and other Islamic religious material were being burned. The Afghan Parliament moved today to require that any US personnel involved in the debacle be turned over for trial by sharia law. Failure to comply would lead to the US being denied access to the country after 2014. … Governor Jerry Brown’s political committee today released a poll showing what I’ve been talking and writing about for many weeks. That heiress Molly Munger’s big income tax hike initiative has no chance of passinag, and if all three proposed revenue initiatives are on the November California ballot, all may fall. … On his trip to Washington, Brown will appear at a fundraiser for his revenue initiative hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, former Clinton White House chief of staff, and an old colleague of mine from Gary Hart days, Mike Stratton.
** NEW POLL: SANTORUM EXPANDS NATIONAL LEAD OVER ROMNEY AND GINGRICH. In the new Gallup Poll, Rick Santorum has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney among Republicans nationally.
Santorum now leads Romney, 36% to 26%.
Gingrich, the former leader, is a distant third at 13%.
Ron Paul, his much-hyped libertarian uprising having fallen flat even in lightly-attended caucus states, brings up the rear with 11%.
Paul has become a de facto ally of Romney in this race, his extreme laissez-faire economics philosophy giving cover to Romney’s anything-goes financialized capitalism and his millions in funds from zealous supporters employed to attack Romney’s chief rivals.
First Gingrich, now Santorum.
President Barack Obama sings “Sweet Home Chicago” at last night’s Red, White, and Blues event at the White House. That’s B.B. King and Mick Jagger on stage with him.
** OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.In the latest dramatic sign that California has supplanted New York at the premiere locale for Barack Obama’s fundraising, the Democratic president raised, according to sources, close to $8.5 million here last week on his two-day swing through the state. Even before this, it was clear that California was well ahead of New York in Obama’s fundraising operation.
It’s important to note that some issues exist with respect to Obama in New York that aren’t the case in California.
Some $4 million of last week’s haul came in three events in San Francisco, which included attendees from nearby Silicon Valley, with the rest from events in Los Angeles and Orange County.
Intriguingly, Obama’s extremely formidable California fundraising machine relies hardly at all on the state’s popular Democratic governor or on its dominant Democratic Party organization.
Instead, Obama has forged an operation largely his own, fusing his highly successful 2008 primary campaign organization with that of Hillary Clinton, building on strong potential support bases in Silicon Valley and Hollywood, fusing those with more traditional sources of funds from the professions, real estate, and finance. It’s a more variegated approach than in New York, which is heavily dependent on Wall Street. And it has flourished despite disappointing some, such as Hollywood interests who wanted to crack down on the Internet and its potential for piracy and those who worry that Obama hasn’t gone far enough on the environment, or has gone too far in Afghanistan.
Ironically, in John Burton, the former congressman and leader of the state Senate who gave U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer her start in politics, California has one of the least pro-Obama state party chairs in the country.
Rather than feature the top figures in the Obama Administration at the annual state party conventions, Burton chooses more lefty national figures, such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the Senate’s only avowed socialist and a frequent Obama critic.
But it doesn’t matter all that much. Obama is in no danger of losing California, and Burton’s state party apparatus is appropriately focused much more on key initiatives and legislative and congressional races.
As usual, Governor Jerry Brown was nowhere to be seen during Obama’s latest California tour. Better make that, he was nowhere to be seen in the vicinity of Obama.
In the midst of an historic third term as the not so Golden State’s governor, Brown, himself a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, was prepping for two days of his own high-profile events, hosting Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping in a series of events, joining Vice President Joe Biden on Friday.
Truth be told, Brown is not close to Obama, though he defends him in his public remarks and recently hosted Obama Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood in California as the Obama Administration and the Brown Administration work to push forward the embattled high-speed rail project.
Unlike most of the California Democratic establishment, such as Senator Dianne Feinstein, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and then San Francisco Mayor Gaving Newsom, who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, while more avowedly left-ward figures such as John Burton went with John Edwards, Brown was neutral. But, according to sources, he did not spark to Obama during their private meeting then.
That meeting began with the somewhat spiky Brown jousting over some past contretemps with top Obama advisor David Axelrod. Which, if you get Brown, can be a prelude to a very interesting and useful exchange. But it seemed to bring out Obama’s cautious side.
Some urged Brown to support Hillary Clinton, despite his bitter battle with the Clintons during the 1992 Democratic presidential race. Others in his family urged Brown to go with Obama.
I suggested to Brown that he back Obama, who was clearly the figure of the future in the Democratic Party. But he stayed neutral, and Clinton went on to win the California primary on 2008′s Super Tuesday.
But only after the Obama forces made a major feint toward a big California move, which caused the Clinton campaign to react with a huge defensive effort, parking former President Bill Clinton in California for the last two days of the campaign while Obama sprinted forward in many smaller states, ending up with a Super Tuesday delegate edge over his future secretary of state which he never relinquished.
Despite Clinton’s win in the California primary, Obama was a natural for California, as subsequent events showed. …
Two Iranian warships sailed back through the Suez Canal after sailing into the Mediterranean and visiting Syria last week. The new Egyptian government is allowing the Iranian Navy access to Suez for the first time in decades.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then delivered remarks at the construction site of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture, and event also attended by First Lady Michelle Obama.
At 1:10 PM Pacific, Obama and the first lady host a reception in honor of the groundbreaking of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture in the East Room.
Tonight is the big Republican presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona, which will air from 5 to 7 PM Pacific on CNN.
A new CNN poll confirms what Public Policy Polling found on Monday, that Mitt Romney’s big lead over Rick Santorum in next Tuesday’s Arizona primary is down to the margin of error. Considering that Santorum leads Romney in his home state of Michigan.
Newt Gingrich still has a big vote in Arizona, where he’s not campaigning. If a chunk of those voters go to their second choice, who is generally Santorum .
Incidentally, Santorum leads Romney in Washington, which holds caucuses between Michigan/Arizona and Super Tuesday on March 3rd.
As the seriously disarrayed Republican field plays out its dynamics, major geopolitical crises are unfolding.
The UN nuclear watchdog’s visit to Iran ended ahead of schedule yesterday when Tehran refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors any access to key nuclear facilities.
Thus further ratcheting up the crisis, and making it ever more difficult for Iran’s apologists to claim that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
Which is not the same as justifying a war, mind you.
The Syrian crisis, which is linked, as you see from the footage of Iranian naval vessels returning from a trip to its ally Syria through the Suez Canal — which the previous Egyptian government denied Tehran access to — also ratchets up with continued Assad regime assaults on protesters.
The Friends of Syria, aka the International Contact Group on Syria, will convene this Friday in Tunisia, where the Arab Awakening began.
Russia has refused to participate, and China has not yet replied.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California and en route to Washingon.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning. As first reported yesterday in Governors Journal, Brown is attending this year’s National Governors Association meeting in Washington, an event he skipped last year while he was heavily focused on bipartisan negotiations over California’s chronic budget crisis.
During his five-day trip, Brown will meet with President Barack Obama, top Obama Administration officials, and the California Congressional delegation.
I’ll have a lot more on this, of course.
Proponents of California’s Prop 8 same sex marriage ban, having lost in federal district court and now before a panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeal, have decided to appeal to the full 9th Circuit rather than go straight to the US Supreme Court. It’s an interesting move, which means that the Supreme Court is most unlikely to get the case before the November elections.
It will not be easy for the proponents of Prop 8 — who must defend the case themselves, due to the refusals to do so by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor Jerry Brown, and Attorney General Kamala Harris — to win on appeal.
The full 9th Circuit is unlikely to overturn the decision by its panel.
And the narrowness of the basis on which the panel decided the case, making its decision California-specific, may make it more difficult to have the Supreme Court take on the case.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran. …
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran. … From my February 16th essay.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?). … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $106 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $8 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Reports of foreign troops burning copies of the Koran led to angry Afghan protests outside the main US military base at Bagram 60 miles outside of Kabul. The Defense Department has apologized to the Afghan people.
** QUICK HITS. A new CNN poll confirms what Public Policy Polling found yesterday, that Mitt Romney’s big lead over Rick Santorum in next Tuesday’s Arizona primary is down to the margin of error. Considering that Santorum leads Romney in his home state of Michigan … Newt Gingrich still has a big vote in Arizona, where he’s not campaigning. If a chunk of those voters go to their second choice, who is generally Santorum … Incidentally, Santorum leads Romney in Washington, which holds caucuses between Michigan/Arizona and Super Tuesday on March 3rd. … Proponents of California’s Prop 8 same sex marriage ban, having lost in federal district court and now before a panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeal, have decided to appeal to the full 9th Circuit rather than go straight to the US Supreme Court. It’s an interesting move, which means that the Supreme Court is most unlikely to get the case before the November elections.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.
TUESDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
In this holiday foreshortened week, a huge week of presidential politics is on tap, and a less consequential but nonetheless intriguing week of California politics.
The Republican presidential race, now in major disarray, rolls on with a debate tomorrow night and the run-up to primaries next week in Michigan and Arizona.
And President Barack Obama, fresh from a big California fundraising tour, with very good news on the economy and a victory over congressional Republicans on the payroll tax and unemployment insurance, has major geopolitical crises to deal with.
The drift to war with Iran continues, with the Islamic republic launching new military exercises and reportedly denying access to key nuclear sites to a just arrived crew from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.
In Syria, the government crackdown on protesters continues, despite last week’s overwhelming UN General Assembly condemnation of the Assad regime.
And in Afghanistan, the latest fiasco, with Afghan employees at Bagram Air Base discovering US personnel burning Korans and other Islamic religious material confiscated from Taliban prisoners. The Defense Department has issued an apology.
Only in Greece is there good news, after the latest European bailout. Well, good news unless you are a Greek affected by five years of looming austerity policies.
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum continues to lead Mitt Romney in polling for the Michigan Republican presidential primary on February 28th.
Romney, who is from Michigan, where his dad was a popular governor and car company CEO, is counter-attacking viciously, and, with de facto ally Ron Paul, acted to shut down the only pre-Super Tuesday debate, which had been set for Atlanta on CNN.
The four candidates will debate tomorrow night, which I believe is the last debate presently scheduled. Romney clearly doesn’t want any more debates, hoping to hold on with big money and negative ads.
While the Republican disarray plays out, complete with Newt Gingrich getting a fresh $12 million to spend, some top Republicans are, as I expected, looking at the possibility of a new candidate for the presidency.
Names I hear being mentioned are Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush. The only one who impresses me particularly is Jeb Bush. But he has one rather large problem. It has to do with his name. And I don’t mean Jeb.
Obama’s short week ahead is deceptive in its public scheduling.
The Obama schedule betrays none of the behind the scenes drama surrounding the Iran/Israel and Syrian crises. The former crisis is discussed in the piece excerpted and linked below.
On Tuesday, the Obamas bring music legends and contemporary major artists to the White House for a celebration of Blues music in recognition of Black History Month as part of their “In Performance at the White House” series.
On Wednesday, Obama will deliver remarks at the construction site of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture. The museum is scheduled to open in 2015 and will be the only national museum devoted exclusively to the documentation of African American life.
On Thursday, Obama will travel to Miami, Florida, to participate in a still undisclosed official event.
On Friday, Obama will host Prime Minister Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark for a meeting in the Oval Office.
The two leaders will discuss preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit in Chicago, including proposals for supporting the transition in Afghanistan, increasing Alliance defense capabilities, and advancing NATO’s relationships with key partners. With Denmark currently holding the European Union presidency, they also will talk about the recent European summit and the latest steps that Europe is taking to address its sovereign debt crisis.
Governor Jerry Brown continues working on his November revenue initiative, the chronic budget crisis, public pension reform, and the high-speed rail plan.
He’s continuing to work on water, as well, but I’m getting the feeling that, given all he has on his plate, as well as fiscal complications and the lack of any widespread sense of popular urgency, water may be a second term issue for this governor. Or a fourth term issue, depending on how you look at it.
State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said last week that it’s time for tax hike advocates to get behind Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative. He directly contradicted heiress Molly Munger’s assertions that polling shows her measure, which would raise income taxes on most all Californians, stands a good chance of passage. It’s also a message from a top Democratic leader to the two smaller unions, California Federation of Teachers and California Nurses Association, pushing the “Millionaire’s Tax.”
Brown wrapped up two days hosting Chinese Vice President Xi in Southern California at the end of last week. Xi is slated to take over the general secretaryship of the ruling Chinese Communist Party this year and to become president of the People’s Republic of China next year. Also on hand were Vice President Joe Biden and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
The governor, who was criticized during his first go-round as governor for pursuing a California foreign policy with regard to Mexico, Canada, and Pacific Basin nations, announced that he will open California trade and investment offices in Beijing and Shanghai.
The state’s extensive network of trade offices was shut down as a waste of money in 2003.
But Brown says he will find partnership funding for the renewed offices, which will be re-established in a country on its way to becoming the world’s largest economy, but not there yet.
California has the world’s eighth largest economy.
Brown also announced that he will establish a joint California-China task force for trade and investment.
He is seeking to build a relationship over time, the way the Chinese like to do things, which I believe would extend into another Brown term. His second this time around, a record fourth overall.
And yes, it is my opinion that Brown intends to run for re-election and would be a very clear favorite under all likely scenarios.
Brown gave a well-received speech at a private luncheon for Xi on Friday at the J.W. Marriott in downtown LA.
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor Gray Davis joined Brown and other dignitaries to honor the Chinese leader.
Brown’s speech went quite well, but with one caveat. After beginning with a few short bursts of oratory, then pausing for translation, he galloped ahead of the translator, leaving him in the dust for several minutes.
Naturally, Brown had no text, so the poor translator was left having to furiously scribble down what Brown was saying and recreate it for Xi and his traveling party.
Less consequential doings come this coming weekend, when the California Republican Party convention holds the first of its two annual conventions, this one at the Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport.
Only Newt Gingrich of the major presidential contenders will be on hand. He raised over $2 million last week in a Golden State fundraising swing, and is letting Santorum and Romney battle it out in next week’s primaries prior to jumping back into the midst of the fray when the Super Tuesday contests head further South.
Oh, and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, representing Romney. Considering that Romney finished a distant third in Pawlenty’s own state, I’m not sure that’s such a big deal.
President Barack Obama today thanked those who made their voices heard in the debate to extend the payroll tax cut for 160 million working Americans through the end of the year, along with unemployment insurance benefits. He also called on Congress to take additional steps to stabilize and revive the economy.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then hosted a payroll tax cut victory event in the South Court Auditorium before joining Biden for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 1:50 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.
At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host music legends and contemporary major artists for a celebration of Blues music in recognition of Black History Month in the East Room.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran. …
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran. … From my February 16th essay.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?). … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $106 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $72 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $8 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Whitney Houston performing “The Star Spangled Banner” at the Super Bowl shortly before the Gulf War. You’ll never see or hear it done better.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE.
** OBAMA THIS WEEKEND. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has no scheduled public events on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday.
Rick Santorum continues to lead Mitt Romney in polling for the Michigan Republican presidential primary on February 28th.
Romney is counter-attacking viciously, and, with de facto ally Ron Paul, acted to shut down the only pre-Super Tuesday debate, which had been set for Atlanta on CNN.
The four candidates will debate on February 22nd.
While the Republican disarray plays out, complete with Newt Gingrich getting a fresh $12 million to spend, some top Republicans are, as I expected, looking at the possibility of a new candidate for the presidency.
Names I hear being mentioned are Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush.
The only one who impresses me particularly is Jeb Bush.
But he has one rather large problem ...
Obama’s short week ahead is deceptive in its public scheduling.
The Obama schedule betrays none of the behind the scenes drama surrounding the Iran/Israel and Syrian crises. The former crisis is discussed in the piece excerpted and linked below.
On Tuesday, the Obamas bring music legends and contemporary major artists to the White House for a celebration of Blues music in recognition of Black History Month as part of their “In Performance at the White House” series.
On Wednesday, Obama will deliver remarks at the construction site of the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture. The museum is scheduled to open in 2015 and will be the only national museum devoted exclusively to the documentation of African American life.
On Thursday, Obama will travel to Miami, Florida, to participate in a still undisclosed official event.
On Friday, Obama will host Prime Minister Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark for a meeting in the Oval Office.
In his weekend video/radio address from the Boeing plant in Everett, Washington, President Barack Obama describes a series of steps to strengthen American manufacturing.
The two leaders will discuss preparations for the upcoming NATO Summit in Chicago, including proposals for supporting the transition in Afghanistan, increasing Alliance defense capabilities, and advancing NATO’s relationships with key partners. With Denmark currently holding the European Union presidency, they also will talk about the recent European summit and the latest steps that Europe is taking to address its sovereign debt crisis.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
Brown has no scheduled public events.
Brown wrapped up two days hosting Chinese Vice President Xi in Southern California. Xi is slated to take over the general secretaryship of the ruling Chinese Communist Party this year and to become president of the People’s Republic of China next year. Also on hand were Vice President Joe Biden and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
The governor, who was criticized during his first go-round as governor for pursuing a California foreign policy with regard to Mexico, Canada, and Pacific Basin nations, announced that he will open California trade and investment offices in Beijing and Shanghai.
The state’s extensive network of trade offices was shut down as a waste of money in 2003.
But Brown says he will find partnership funding for the renewed offices, which will be re-established in a country on its way to becoming the world’s largest economy, but not there yet.
California has the world’s eighth largest economy.
Brown also announced that he will establish a joint California-China task force for trade and investment.
He is seeking to build a relationship over time, the way the Chinese like to do things, which I believe would extend into another Brown term. His second this time around, a record fourth overall.
And yes, it is my opinion that Brown intends to run for re-election and would be a very clear favorite under all likely scenarios.
Brown gave a well-received speech at a private luncheon for Xi on Friday at the J.W. Marriott in downtown LA.
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Governor Gray Davis joined Brown and other dignitaries to honor the Chinese leader.
Brown’s speech went quite well, but with one caveat.
After beginning with a few short bursts of oratory, then pausing for translation, he galloped ahead of the translator, leaving him in the dust for several minutes.
Naturally, Brown had no text, so the poor translator was left having to furiously scribble down what Brown was saying and recreate it for Xi and his traveling party.
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran. …
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran.
If we can’t control what happens in Iraq, a nation which we conquered for a time, we’re not very well going to control what happens in Iran, a more formidable opponent which, unlike Saddam’s Iraq, really does have international terrorist assets.
Pushing such a war is an obviously very dangerous idea. But it’s treated rather blithely in a stenographic US media, with little attention to its substance or peril. Even in the record number of Republican debates, in which media moderators have allowed candidates to mouth their shallow talking points without any substantive discussion.
While Iran’s growing role in the region is alarming to many Arab states and beyond, the underlying dynamic is principally Iran vs. Israel, two governments presently controlled by religionists. One which may well have a Mahdi complex, another which may well have a Masada complex. … From my February 16th essay.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?). … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Actor Kevin Costner, who picked Whitney Houston for the 1992 movie, The Bodyguard, spoke at her funeral in Newark, New Jersey, saying she was the only one who could have filled her role.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $103.24 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $69 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $11 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
At an appearance at a Boeing factory outside Seattle, Washington, President Barack Obama praised Congress for renewing a payroll tax cut for 160 million American workers and jobless benefits for millions more.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … ECLIPSING THE EMPIRE STATE: OBAMA’S CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH.
** FRIDAY FUNHOUSE.
Heading into a long national holiday weekend, there are some provocative developments.
President Barack Obama is wrapping up a highly successful West Coast fundraising swing in which it is clear that California has supplanted New York as the key state for his fundraising machine.
Multiple fundraisers in Los Angeles and San Francisco busted through internal targets, raising millions. More to follow.
As for Governor Jerry Brown, he is wrapping up two days of high-level diplomacy and tours with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, the PRC’s next top leader, re-opening California trade offices in China and establishing a joint task force for investment and trade.
Obama received more good news in the form of what is essentially a Republican surrender on the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance extensions, which passed Congress today.
The vote was 293-132 in the House, and 60-36 in the Senate.
Meanwhile, the Republican presidential race continues in its state of disarray and acrimony.
Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in Ohio and Michigan, with Romney forces launching bitter attacks on Santorum now as “the ultimate Washington insider” and “Big Labor’s favorite senator.”
And Newt Gingrich, who raised $2 million in his California fundraising swing, is getting another infusion of $10 million for his super PAC from Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson.
Gingrich has slid in the polls with the ascent of Santorum, but this will make him very viable going forward.
Is Adelson trying to help Gingrich solely, or is this a bank shot to help Romney avoid being defeated straight up by Santorum, as some suggest?
Romney still clearly fears Gingrich, however, as well as Santorum.
He and his de facto ally Ron Paul caused the only remaining pre-Super Tuesday debate, in Gingrich’s home state of Georgia, to be canceled yesterday by CNN when the pair pulled out of the event.
Indeed, it is quite possible for Santorum and Gingrich to both flourish in different states, with Gingrich stronger in the South and Santorum stronger in the Midwest.
This has happened in previous presidential nomination races.
In fact, it is just possible that the ultimate Republican nominee is not presently a candidate.
Romney is very deeply flawed, as is clear now and as I have said all along.
And the others, god bless them, are hard to see as potential presidents. Each is also deeply flawed. I’m referring to Gingrich and Santorum, of course, not Ron Paul, who is no more likely to be the Republican presidential nominee than you are.
While all this goes down, and up, and down, and up again, very serious things are happening in geopolitics.
The UN General Assembly late yesterday overwhelmingly adopted a resolution advanced by the Arab League calling for a ceasefire in Syria and transition to democratic rule away from the Assad regime. The vote was 137 to 12, with 17 abstentions, some of which later complained about problems casting a vote.
China and Russia voted no, joined by North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and a few others. The resolution is non-binding, but ratchets up pressure and further isolates the Assad regime and its small band of supporters, who don’t want any humanitarian intervention in their rather dodgy internal affairs.
The UN vote could further legitimate a move endorsed by the Arab League for its members to provide arms to the Syrian rebels, a dangerous situation which could lead to de facto proxy war.
At the same time, the drift to war with Iran continues. (See the essay linked below.)
In a time of grave geopolitical uncertainty, it’s good to recall a recent Obama Administration success. It is one year since the first anti-Gadaffi demonstrations took place in Libya. People have been celebrating across the country especially in the capital Tripoli, where crowds gathered waving flags and chanting.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California, the State of Washington, and Washington, DC.
At 9 AM Pacific, Obama departs San Francisco, California on Air Force One en route Everett, Washington.
At 10:50 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Everett, Washington.
At 11:05 AM Pacific, Obama tours the Boeing Everett Production Facility
At 11:25 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at the Boeing Everett Production Facility
At 2 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser in a private residence
At 3:45 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the Westin Bellevue Hotel
At 5 PM Pacific, Obama departs Everett, Washington on Air Force One en route Washington, DC
Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.
Brown is very involved with the visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who later this year will become general secretary of the ruling Chinese Communist Party and next year is slated to become president of the People’s Republic of China.
At 9 AM, Brown attends the China/US Economic Forum at the J.W. Marriott at LA Live in downtown Los Angeles.
Brown will speak at 10:40 AM.
At 12 noon, Brown and others host Vice President Xi at a private luncheon at the J.W. Marriott.
Brown delivers introductory remarks at 12:45 PM.
At 3:30 PM, Brown hosts the U.S. and Chinese Governors’ Round Table with Vice President Xi at the Walt Disney Concert Hall in downtown LA.
State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg said yesterday that it’s time for tax hike advocates to get behind Governor Jerry Brown’s November revenue initiative. He directly contradicted heiress Molly Munger’s assertions that polling shows her measure, which would raise income taxes on most all Californians, stands a good chance of passage. It’s also a message from a top Democratic leader to the two smaller unions, California Federation of Teachers and California Nurses Association, pushing the “Millionaire’s Tax.”
** DRIFTING TO WAR WITH IRAN: BEWARE THE HYSTERIA.With the Republican presidential race in disarray and something of a lull in the post-”inevitable Romney” phase, there is one ongoing constant: All the conceivable nominees, at least in the current set of prospects, are pushing for war with Iran.
I’m referring, of course, to Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. Not the neo-isolationist Ron Paul, who is about as likely to be the Republican nominee for president as I am. He is so far off the reservation that Santorum and Gingrich passed on the opportunity to guarantee a fourth straight Romney defeat, in the little-attended Maine caucuses, by tossing some support to Paul. The idea of him succeeding, even in this minor way, is simply anathema to them.
Not that these warhawks have anything like a plan as to how an Iran war would, you know, work.
It might be nice to imagine that an attack could work. If one believes that Iran is developing nuclear weapons — as most experts who’ve looked at this, including the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, do — then this is serious business. Notwithstanding the futile protest of iPod-wielding students a few years back, whose fate may be shared by the initial revolutionaries of Egypt (when will we stop imagining that the people most like us represent the mainstream of another society?), Iran is a worrisome, hostile, radical fundamentalist power. One which was held neatly in check by Saddam Hussein. Who of course was removed from power at the insistence of the very people now flipping out over Iran and pushing war there.
The reality is that the US invasion of Iraq ended up empowering Iran, leading to government in Baghdad which is dominated by politicians friendly with Iran.
If we can’t control what happens in Iraq, a nation which we conquered for a time, we’re not very well going to control what happens in Iran, a more formidable opponent which, unlike Saddam’s Iraq, really does have international terrorist assets.
Pushing such a war is an obviously very dangerous idea. But it’s treated rather blithely in a stenographic US media, with little attention to its substance or peril. Even in the record number of Republican debates, in which media moderators have allowed candidates to mouth their shallow talking points without any substantive discussion.
While Iran’s growing role in the region is alarming to many Arab states and beyond, the underlying dynamic is principally Iran vs. Israel, two governments presently controlled by religionists. One which may well have a Mahdi complex, another which may well have a Masada complex. … From my February 16th essay.
** RICKROLLED: ROMNEY WILL BE “INEVITABLE” AGAIN WHEN …So, when will Mitt Romney be “inevitable,” again? And why are his weaknesses and failures a constant source of surprise?
Romney will be the inevitable challenger to Barack Obama when and if he walks on stage in Tampa to deliver his acceptance speech. A good start would be winning somewhere with a positive message, rather than the avalanche of negativity he’s relied on so far in taking only three of the first eight states, losing three in embarrassing landslides.
As to why the ever “inevitable” Romney’s repeated belly flops come as surprise, well, chalk it up to a sort of hive media phenomenon. … From my February 9th essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION, THE BIG NEVADA BUST, THE ROAD AHEAD (AND THE RISE OF RICK?). … From my February 7th essay.
** WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?What light has been shed by the Florida Republican presidential primary? It’s not easy to see how Newt Gingrich wins. And it’s not hard to see how Mitt Romney falls. … From my February 2nd column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in several major military operations in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $104 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $70 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $10 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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