Newt Gingrich declared victory Saturday night in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. No candidate who has lost South Carolina has gone on to be the Republican presidential nominee.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, which will be followed by a three-day/five-state tour of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.
Obama on Saturday won the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses. No surprise, since he is unopposed, as always expected. But this was not, let’s say, the main story of the day in presidential politics.
What was?
Newt Gingrich’s landslide 13-point win over putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary.
With 100% of the precincts counted, it’s Gingrich 40.4%, Romney 27.8%, Rick Santorum 17.0%, Ron Paul 13.0%, and the remainder scattered.
Gingrich trailed by 10 points five days before winning by 13 points, so this is a massive 23-point turnaround in less than a week.
Naturally, most of the news media is scrambling today to try to explain this “shocking” development.
Which is not a shock to NWN readers.
I have a piece or two coming up on what’s next and why, and today is Championship Sunday in the NFL, so I’ll refer you to what’s been written already for now.
Meanwhile, Romney agreed to appear in two debates this coming week in Florida, which his campaign had previously indicated he would not.
And he agreed to release two years of his tax returns, after previously insisting he would wait until April. That’s unlikely to end questioning of his highly lucrative business practices, of course.
In very critical action elsewhere, decades long Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who yesterday appeared headed for Oman, is today headed for the US following what now looks to be a very brief stop in Oman. Ostensibly for more medical treatment but perhaps for a more permanent exile.
Saudi Arabia hosted him for many weeks after an assassination attempt last year left a dozen of his closest associates dead and the dictator himself seriously wounded. But Riyadh declined to take him back, after curiously allowing him to return to Yemen.
Saleh departs with an immunity agreement in place and the US perhaps taking a blow to its sagging prestige in the Arab street.
With tensions eased somewhat, Iran today called for more talks on its nuclear program, rather than sanctions.
Tehran has succeeded in getting Russia, China, and India to eschew further tough sanctions against its nuclear weapons program, which it insists is for energy only. But the sanctions already in place are hurting the Iranian economy.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
Here are the final few minutes of last weekend’s NFL play-off game between the San Francisco 49ers and the record-setting New Orleans Saints, in which the 49ers set a record themselves by coming from behind not once, but twice.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants this afternoon at Candlestick Park in the National Football Conference Championship Game.
Win this one, and the 49ers, who are slight favorites in Las Vegas, go to the Super Bowl for the first time in 17 years.
The annual NFC championship games began in 1971, after the merger between the National Football League and the American Football League, with the first one ever played in San Francisco’s old Kezar Stadium in the corner of Golden Gate Park. (The stadium is now best remembered as a very key setting in Dirty Harry.)
It was the last NFL game played in the old park, and the 49ers lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 17-10. I was there. It was quite a show.
Today’s game makes 13 NFC title game appearances for the 49ers in the four decades of the conference championship games. But this is the first for San Francisco since 1998, when they lost to Green Bay.
Today’s opponent, the New York Giants, was a .500 ball club on Christmas Eve. They had to beat the ever over-hyped New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys to barely make it into the play-offs. Then they ripped Green Bay last weekend, 37-20, catching the favored Packers looking incredibly flat and off, distracted by the death a few days earlier of their offensive coordinator’s son and probably looking past the Giants, whom they’d beaten in the regular season, to a showdown with the 49ers.
Naturally, the East Coast-based “national” sports media, especially ESPN, has spun up this 9-7 regular season outfit, which lost to the 49ers in the regular season — and was blown away by New Orleans, 49-24 — as one of the most awesome assemblages ever.
Governor Jerry Brown, who ultimately got into the Raiders, somewhat, when he was the mayor of Oakland, has notably not bet with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on the outcome of this game.
He’s just not the sportsman that Arnold Schwarzenegger is.
Of course, he does have a lot going on.
The two mayors have bet, however.
If the 49ers win, New York will re-name 49th Street as 49ers Street and Mayor Michael Bloomberg will send some of New York’s finest bagels to San Francisco.
If the Giants win, San Francisco will drape a cable car in New York Giants’ flags and Mayor Ed Lee will some of San Francisco’s finest sourdough bread to New York.
I can’t wait to see 49ers Street.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary Saturday night in a landslide, easily beating putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of the week.
7 PM PACIFIC UPDATE: GINGRICH TAKES SOUTH CAROLINA IN A LANDSLIDE OVER ROMNEY. Despite being out-spent by Mitt Romney better than 2 to 1 (I lump in super PAC totals with formal campaign totals, else the ratio would be far higher in Romney’s favor), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich swept to victory today in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary.
I’ve seen the exit polls throughout the day, and of course had the late polling as reported early this morning, but waited till most of the votes were counted to verify the trend.
With 95% of the votes counted, here are the results:
Newt Gingrich 41%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rick Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 13%
Romney had moved to a 10-point lead over Gingrich heading into the debate this past Monday night, just five days ago.
So this is a 24-point turnaround in Gingrich’s favor over Romney, in less than a week, despite being heavily outspent.
That is an historic blow-out, shattering the myth of Romney “inevitability.” And it happened with Santorum still in the race.
The ex-Pennsylvania senator, who narrowly won Iowa — a victory he was deprived of by a credulous media spun by Romney and an incompetent and frankly duplicitous state Republican party — says he will go on to the Florida primary, which is on January 31st. But he doesn’t have much money, or much hope. Does he want to try to play spoiler and help Romney?
Ron Paul, running out of gas though not out of money, thanks to his zealous cult-like backers, will not play in Florida. He’s looking to acquire more delegates in caucus states, where his enthusiasts can exercise out-size influence.
If it wasn’t obvious before, it is obvious now that Paul has no chance at winning the Republican nomination, which is now clearly a two-person race between Gingrich and Romney.
Romney, the supposedly inevitable frontrunner, has now lost two of the first three contests. Including the one contest, South Carolina, which has never been lost by a Republican presidential nominee.
More to follow, including the upcoming essay I mentioned this morning, referenced below.”Will Gingrich Blow It (Again)?”
4 PM PACIFIC UPDATE: GINGRICH PROJECTED EASY WINNER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. As soon as the polls closed in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, Fox News, ABC News, and NBC News all projected former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a big winner.
Mitt Romney finished second.
More to follow.
The polls opened Saturday morning in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. Mitt Romney has lost a big lead over the past week to a surging Newt Gingrich. No candidate who has lost the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, which will be followed by a three-day/five-state tour of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.
Note that three of the five states Obama will visit post-SOTU are Western states.
The Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses are today. I predict an Obama victory. He is unopposed, as also predicted.
Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Previous Nevada Democratic presidential caucus winners include John Kerry, Al Gore, Jerry Brown twice, and Gary Hart.
Nevada’s Republicans get their turn in the neon lights of a wintry desert, oh, forget the writing thing … anyway, the Nevada Republican caucuses are on tap for February 4th.
Today, of course, is the South Carolina primary. No one who has lost the South Carolina primary has ever gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination.
Late polling from Public Policy Polling into Friday night shows Newt Gingrich shrugging off his second ex-wife’s 11th hour claim of his asking for “an open marriage,” as well as days of concerted attacks from the Romney campaign, holding a nine-point lead over Mitt Romney.
That’s a rolling average over three days.
For Friday-only results, Gingrich has a whopping 14-point lead over Romney. Rick Santorum is running slightly ahead of Ron Paul for a distant third place.
Single night tracks, especially on a weekend night, are always at least somewhat problematic, of course.
Having issued that caveat, it seems that voters are not buying what Marianne Gingrich had to say, especially given its timing. And those who do may have already factored Gingrich’s famously caddish behavior of the past into their calculus.
It’s obvious that Gingrich’s stoning of CNN host John King’s decision to open the debate with such a personal gotcha question has redounded spectacularly well for the ex-House speaker.
A few people have asked what I mean by “stoning,” which is why in my HuffPost column during the week I described it as “wrecking.” In football, stoning refers to a tackle that devastates the player on the receiving end of the hit.
Late on Friday, former talk show host Michael Reagan, son of the late president, added his endorsement to Gingrich, who this week racked up nods from Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chuck Norris, and quite a few of the South Carolina supporters of the withdrawn Jon Huntsman, who himself issued a rather tepid endorsement of Romney when he withdrew from the race on Monday.
When Norris, one of the best karate black belts and action stars ever, endorsed Gingrich yesterday, Gingrich tweeted in response, saying he’s honored blah blah and “He will make an excellent Secretary of Attack.”
So much for the fun stuff.
Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.
The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.
What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?
Well, they are pretty much nowhere.
Which is why it is so dangerous to assume that chanting crowds dramatically urging democracy means that the crowds represent most of the country and that folks are just like us.
The Muslim Brotherhood says it does not want to form a coalition with the Salafists, however, and the Obama Administration is in talks with them. Still, the center of gravity of Egyptian politics has shifted sharply toward a religious-based politics, a huge development in a country which was once a key ally of Israel.
On Friday, France not only suspended training of Afghan troops after four French soldiers were killed by an Afghan soldier under NATO training, it suspended all its activity in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon privately acknowledges attacks by Afghans on NATO troops have been rising. Ominously, it blames hostility toward coalition forces more than Taliban plotting.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama stays on economic message, talking about his steps during the week to boost tourism, his moves to sidestep Congress, and giving a brief taste of the upcoming State of he Union address.
The US is trying to figure out how to finally get Ali Abdullah Saleh out of Yemen, the principal topic of Obama’s meeting yesterday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He wants to come here. Obama and company aren’t happy about that, as it would be a PR problem in the Arab world. But Saudi Arabia doesn’t want him, either, and his options are limited.
Today word filtered out that Saleh will go to Oman, where a residence is being prepared for him by the pro-Western sultan who has managed to make his Arab Spring protesters happy. I don’t know how happy they would be to have Saleh in their midst, so his ultimate destination is still vague, with the wily president reportedly still talking about leading the opposition in Yemen or living in the US.
The crises with Iran and Israel continue to percolate. But with the US and Israel postponing an impending major joint exercise till June, and the US Navy making its resolve to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, oil prices eased somewhat in late Friday trading.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey held an intense round of closed door meetings on Thursday evening and all day Friday in Jaffa and Tel Aviv with Israeli military leaders. Afterwards, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that any decision on air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program is still quite a ways off.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?
What’s actually amazing is that Gingrich was “dead” in the first place.
The fact is that the ex-House speaker had the Republican race in his hands last month and then proceeded to blow it.
And Mitt Romney is one of the most hollow, and hyped, political figures to come down the track in some time. He’s a consultant culture dream candidate: Big money and heavily into “messaging.” However, messaging, i.e., constantly repeating crafted talking points, is often not the same as having a message, which is why what he says is so malleable and chameleon-like. It’s obvious that there is very little that interests Romney besides success.
It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns.
Gingrich should have taken command of the race in December. Instead, he portentously declared that he would be the nominee and oddly proceeded to avoid any real campaigning, allowing Romney’s super PAC operatives to get the jump on tearing him down, until the tide had turned decidedly against him.
But Romney is Romney, and Gingrich has skills, so between Romney’s radical capitalist contradictions coming to the fore — complete with his bizarre attacks on any criticism of Wall Street ways — and Gingrich’s ability to get back in debates, the undead has risen. No wonder that Romney is now trying to skip future debates. … From my January 20th column.
** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.
He’s also making progress early on in clearing the field for his revenue initiative in November.
Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.
** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.
** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.
** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.
** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.
** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.
** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.
** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $98.33 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
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| Comments (40) |
Good ON MESSAGE speech by Barack!
South Carolina primary, wow!! Romney’s in big trouble now.
I love it! This is great for barack.
Uh-oh…
BB:Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.
The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.
What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?
Well, they are pretty much nowhere.
Indeed.
It’s probably great for Obama. Probably.
>Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:21 am (Edit)
South Carolina primary, wow!! Romney’s in big trouble now.
I love it! This is great for barack.
Good weekend address by President Obama on the economy.
Good good news news video of South Carolina.
In a side note, there was a lot of early voting in SC. FLA has received 2 million votes already, from what I’ve read.
That would be very unusual.
Really now Romney is only taking 1 of the first 3 contests, the one being the state he practically lives in next door to Mass. I wonder how the media establishment will explain how it got this so wrong…
This is very worrisome. Israel has to hope again that the military keeps power in Egypt.
How long can that last?
Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:24 am
Uh-oh…
BB:Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.
The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.
What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?
Well, they are pretty much nowhere.
You know you’ve got a fundamental problem when you rely on the perpetuation of dictatorship.
Hope that no one notices, I suppose, and stay in the hermetically sealed cable noise studio.
>Requiem says:
January 21, 2012 at 11:48 am (Edit)
Really now Romney is only taking 1 of the first 3 contests, the one being the state he practically lives in next door to Mass. I wonder how the media establishment will explain how it got this so wrong…
Incidentally, with regard to Pat’s point, I’m told that maybe 200,000 people have voted in the Florida Republican primary as of today, not 2 million. There are only around 4 million registered Republicans in the state.
Doubtful that Romney has any huge bulge of votes there, even though he’s spent millions already in Florida.
I think that Republican voters are pretty up in the air. There were a lot of late deciders in the South Carolina exit poll and the race has been underway in earnest there far longer than in Florida, where it’s barely begun.
Sure is strange that nobody ever mentions ACORN, A democratic organization well known for voter fraud. They count votes for over 500,00 dead people, 1 million or more inmates of prisons across the Country and lets not forget our cartoon characters like Micky Mouse, Donald Duck, Goofy and the rest of the gang. Obama should easily win with ACORN’s help. Wouldn’t you think?
sorry. must have read it wrong.
I am loving this crazy Republican race.
Wow, Gingrich slaughtered Romney…
I love it!!!
What happens now??
Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:24 am
Uh-oh…
BB:Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.
The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.
What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?
Well, they are pretty much nowhere.
Bill Bradley says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:47 am
Indeed.
In 2008 a little less than 2 mil. votes were cast in the fl. primary. Romney got about 600k and came in 2nd to mccain. assuming that 200k votes have been received to date, that’s 10% of the total vote. It’ll be interesting to watch my how my home state goes. i don’t think newt’s a foregone conclusion down there, of course. while florida does have a serious religious conservative streak, the mainstream is decidedly bush-ian and business oriented.
Only 10% of the Florida primary has voted, which is actually not very much by California standards.
Gingrich is hardly a religious identity candidate. He’s more a strong Republican identity candidate.
What Santorum does will be very important, as will the debates, which Stuart Stevens first said Romney would likely skip but Romney has decided he has to participate in.
If what I’m getting from the Romney camp is how they’re going to go, I think they’re making a mistake.
Also, you might want to pause for just a moment to acknowledge that Gingrich is in fact not only not dead, but ascendant with a landslide victory in the primary that no nominee has ever lost.
Ah, beats me.
>Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 7:25 pm (Edit)
What happens now??
Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:24 am
Uh-oh…
BB:Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.
The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.
What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?
Well, they are pretty much nowhere.
Bill Bradley says:
January 21, 2012 at 9:47 am
Indeed.
Indeed. The fun is back.
>Cooper Hawks says:
January 21, 2012 at 5:05 pm (Edit)
I am loving this crazy Republican race.
Capitol Boy says:
January 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm (Edit)
Wow, Gingrich slaughtered Romney…
I love it!!!
Your oligarch Presidential candidate lost in the party of oligarchy.
More Newt video today?
Gingrich gives a good speech but he sure is MEAN!!!
Good victory speech by Speaker Gingrich.
Love that clip of the 49ers coming back last weekend! Hope it’s not that close today.
I think it is closer to 5%.
Gingrich looks strong to me.
Bill Bradley says:
January 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Only 10% of the Florida primary has voted, which is actually not very much by California standards.
Gingrich is hardly a religious identity candidate. He’s more a strong Republican identity candidate.
What Santorum does will be very important, as will the debates, which Stuart Stevens first said Romney would likely skip but Romney has decided he has to participate in.
If what I’m getting from the Romney camp is how they’re going to go, I think they’re making a mistake.
Also, you might want to pause for just a moment to acknowledge that Gingrich is in fact not only not dead, but ascendant with a landslide victory in the primary that no nominee has ever lost.
Almost kick off time for the NINERS and the giants!!!
Europe bans oil from Iran.
Yep.
It was.
>Requiem says:
January 22, 2012 at 2:09 pm (Edit)
Love that clip of the 49ers coming back last weekend! Hope it’s not that close today.
He’s not running in a happy party.
>Capitol Boy says:
January 22, 2012 at 11:23 am (Edit)
Gingrich gives a good speech but he sure is MEAN!!!
He certainly did, and then some.
>sergei says:
January 22, 2012 at 4:33 am (Edit)
Your oligarch Presidential candidate lost in the party of oligarchy.
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