New West Notes

Game Change, based on a best-selling gossipy book (which I largely panned) on the 2008 presidential race, has been adapted for an HBO movie coming in March, focusing largely on the John McCain campaign.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHAT LIGHT FROM THE SUNSHINE STATE?

** NEW POLL: DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS AGREE ON TAX BREAKS FOR BRINGING JOBS BACK AND GETTING TOUGHER WITH CHINA, BUT LITTLE ELSE. A new Gallup Poll reveals some rare consensus between Democrats, independents, and Republicans around two general economic policy proposals.

But on three other issues, Republicans very sharply from Democrats and, notably, independents.

But they are in tune with changing the tax code to provide incentives for corporations to create jobs at home, rather than abroad, and in pushing China for fairer trade practices. Which run counter to the dominant radical capitalist ideology of many Republican elites.

Large majorities of Democrats and independents — and at least 4 in 10 Republicans — favor each of the proposals Gallup asked about, pushing national support for each of the five well above the majority level. Overall support is highest for tax incentives to encourage corporations to bring back manufacturing jobs and for increasing federal spending to help the unemployed find jobs. …

It is also worth noting that despite the large Democratic-Republican divide on increasing taxes on upper-income Americans, federal funding for the development of alternative sources of energy, and education and job training for the long-term unemployed, a majority of independents favor each of these proposals. Further, lawmakers should expect widespread support for legislation that gives tax breaks to corporations that bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas and efforts to pressure China for fairer trade.

** QUICK HITS. With his forces spending more on advertising in the Florida primary than John McCain spent in the entire 2008 Republican nomination race, Mitt Romney is heading toward a blowout win over Newt Gingrich, with Rick Santorum a distant third and Ron Paul an after-thought fourth. … While negotiations continue, Russia today eschewed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s personal plea today for the UN Security Council to urge the replacement of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. … New voter registration numbers in California show another advance for independents, who now number 21%, with Democrats at 44% and Republicans down to 30%. … With tonight’s deadline looming, the California Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan CEQA (environmental) streamlining bill today, but the state Assembly with one vote to spare reversed field from yesterday and passed a bill to modify the 3-strikes sentencing law. … Facebook is set to file its IPO, largest ever for an Internet company, on Wednesday.

** AND THE STAR OF GAME CHANGE IS … STEVE SCHMIDT! Game Change, a gossipy book on the 2008 presidential race which I reviewed and largely panned in January 2010 has been adapted into an HBO movie focusing on John McCain’s presidential campaign and the melodrama around vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

The trailer for the film, which debuts on HBO on March 10th, is just out today and as you can see, it appears that the star of the show is Woody Harrelson as McCain campaign director (and former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager) Steve Schmidt, now a vice chairman of Edelman, the global PR firm, and an MSNBC analyst.

Ed Harris, memorable for his military officer figures in The Right Stuff and The Rock, plays McCain and multiple Academy Award nominee Julianne Moore plays Sarah Palin.

I’ll have a lot more on this as we go, of course. But the trailer is quite striking for zeroing in on Schmidt telling McCain that we live in a rather bizarre media culture (I’m paraphrasing here) and that he, a genuine American hero trailing a man of seemingly little accomplishment, has to do something drastic and dramatic in order to win.

Enter the dramatic stroke: Sarah Palin.

But all does not go well.

I don’t think that’s a spoiler.

The film is directed by Jay Roach, best known for the Austin Powers pictures.

** NEW SURVEY: SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE PERSISTS. According to a new Gallup Poll survey, the recent spate of somewhat improved tracking on economic confidence is holding up since the beginning of the new year.

According to a new Gallup Poll survey, confidence in the US economy is holding steady over the past three weeks, and up substantially still from where it was over the summer.

But it’s still only at the same level it was in May 2011.

And it is still lower than it was a year ago.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was -27 for the week ending Jan. 29, similar to the average rating in each of the prior three weeks. Confidence is up compared with December, and much improved over the highly negative readings of last fall and late summer. …

Longer term, Americans’ economic confidence at the start of 2012 is not quite as upbeat as it was a year ago, but is comparable to confidence in January 2010 — at the start of President Obama’s second year in office — and in January 2008, prior to the global financial collapse. Confidence today is far better than in January 2009, when the country was still reeling from the Wall Street crisis and the government’s response to it. …

** REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD. California is in the midst of a big experiment in political reform, which has already led to a huge defeat for an increasingly right-wing Republican Party. Open primaries have replaced partisan primaries and redistricting has been taken away from the politicians, with each disrupting comfy old arrangements. Though these moves, adopted by initiative, were heavily backed by then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, they’ve been heavily opposed by most Republicans.

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall, and on other major fronts. …

From my January 30th essay.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 10 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD.

With Russia saying it will veto a UN Security Council resolution calling for regime change in tumultuous Syria, President Barack Obama pointedly met yesterday with President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia. Saakashvili foolishly goaded Russia into a 2008 war disastrous for his country, now seeking ongoing security assurances from the US which he may be getting.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

He then held a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room.

At 10 AM Pacific, press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office.

At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the St. Regis Hotel.

At 6:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser in a private residence.

Late polling still shows Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich in today’s Florida Republican presidential primary, though perhaps not by the blowout margin Romney backers are anticipating.

Romney forces have spent more money on ads in Florida alone than John McCain spent in his entire 2008 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. And they are virtually negative attacks on Gingrich.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul trail far behind the two leading candidates.

Iowa Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn, who consistently spun a credulous press corps into believing that Romney won the Iowa caucuses when in fact he did not, deliberately blocking and then dragging his heels on any recount, then refusing at first to acknowledge that Santorum actually finished first will resign next week.

Strawn’s performance was simply disgraceful, and shows the danger in relying on party establishment figures to act as honest brokers in an election process.

Had the Iowa process been honest, the false narrative of an historic Iowa/New Hampshire sweep by Romney would not have been established for two weeks in the news media and Santorum would have had a fairer chance to compete after his first place showing in Iowa.

While campaign shenanigans, and their aftermaths, play out, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in New York City, pushing for the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution developed by the Arab League and backed by Britain, France, and the US demanding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down.

Russia is threatening to use its veto power to block the move, which will play out over the next few days during ongoing negotiations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been ducking phone calls from Clinton for more than a day now.

The Kremlin, backing its longtime Syrian ally, is undoubtedly not very happy about Obama taking the disagreement to another level on Monday by holding high-profile talks with the president of Georgia, which Russia views as its “near abroad.”

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

Oakland’s historic City Hall reopened Monday after protestors stormed inside the building and caused extensive damage during violent weekend Occupy Oakland protests that resulted in more than 400 arrests.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

California’s redevelopment agencies, who fought hard against reform efforts last year and in the past, are on track for the dust bin of history, come midnight tonight.

There is no sign of legislation to revive them, and of course Brown, who fought successfully to redirect revenues from the agencies’ often gold-plated development projects to basic services, would not sign the bill in any event.

Legislation to amend California’s three-strikes law was defeated today in the California Assembly. For those following along at home, with the defeat of single-payer health care legislation last week in the state Senate, California Democrats are reducing their target profile in a critical election year.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $101 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $67 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $13 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend a United Nations Security Council meeting Tuesday in New York to lend her support to the Syrian opposition and a resolution calling for the end of the Assad regime.

** QUICK HITS. California’s redevelopment agencies, who fought hard against reform efforts last year and in the past, are on track for the dust bin of history, come midnight on Tuesday. There is no sign of legislation to revive them, and of course Governor Jerry Brown would not sign the bill in any event. … Legislation to amend California’s three-strikes law was defeated today in the California Assembly. For those following along at home, with the defeat of single-payer health care legislation last week in the state Senate, California Democrats are reducing their target profile in a critical election year. … Oakland City Hall re-opened today after city workers cleaned up extensive damage caused by Occupy demonstrators over the weekend.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … REPUBLICANS LOSE BIG ON REDISTRICTING GAMBLE, BROWN MOVES FORWARD.

** U.S. TO PUSH FOR END OF ASSAD REGIME IN SYRIA. After days of behind the scenes maneuvering, and in the midst of widespread fighting in Syria following months of bloody crackdown against pro-democracy protesters, the Obama Administration will join forces with Britain and France to push a UN Security Council resolution on Tuesday in New York which will promote the ouster of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

These three permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China being the rest of the Perm 5, are uniting behind language emanating from the Arab League urging that Assad leave office and turn over power to a deputy in a transitional governance arrangement for Syria, long one of the lynchpins of the Arab world and presently a key ally of Iran.

Russia, Syria’s longtime ally, calls this the beginning of a regime change move by Western powers allied with various Arab states and vows to veto the measure.

But the BBC reports that the resolution has the support of at least 10 of the 15 members of the UN Security Council. With that much support, only a veto by a permanent Security Council member state can block a resolution.

The Arab League finally pulled its monitors out of Syria two days ago after the Assad regime repeatedly violated its pledge to stop visiting violence upon its opponents.

The Assadists say they have no choice, that the suddenly blossoming Free Syrian Army — which is based in part in Turkey — is too strong to ignore. Indeed, the regime has struggled to disperse these organized armed forces from several places they’ve seized, including suburbs of storied Damascus itself.

The head of the Arab League and the prime minister of Qatar, which has called for Arab countries to send troops into Syria, will be in New York to lobby for the resolution.

Could we be headed for another Libyan scenario, this time involving a key ally of Iran, thus linking the scenario to a much more complex and potentially deadly situation?

A resurgent Mitt Romney and mistake-plagued Newt Gingrich battle in the Florida Republican presidential primary.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

A big week on tap in presidential politics, and a quieter one in California politics.

The Republicans fight on in their race for the presidential nomination — with the Florida primary on Tuesday and the Nevada caucuses on Saturday — while President Barack Obama positions himself against their increasingly conservative positions and deals with geopolitical crises. For his part, Governor Jerry Brown, with added support over the past few days for his big revenue initiative and Republicans scrambling to regroup after a huge defeat on redistricting, moves forward with his agenda but has a renewed problem to deal with in his adopted home town of Oakland.

Mitt Romney continues to lead Newt Gingrich in all polls, by varying margins, heading into Tuesday’s Florida Republican presidential primary. Rick Santorum, who actually narrowly won the Iowa caucuses, a victory of which he was robbed by bad reporting of a Romney win there, is fading out of the picture. And Ron Paul, whose main effect thus far in the race has been to help Romney tear down Gingrich, has done little of late.

Gingrich has made quite a few mistakes, and Romney has benefited from a coordinated counter-attack on the former House speaker from many elements of the political and media establishments, conservative and otherwise.

Gingrich has also been blitzed on the airwaves in the Sunshine State, with the Romney super PAC (which still has not divulged its funders) driving a negative campaign against the ex-House speaker which has seen him outspent by 4-to-1, with an stunning $16 million spent for Romney. The pro-Gingrich Winning Our Future super PAC, having spent about $3 million, does not appear to have committed over $3 million it had been expected to spend in Florida.

As was the case with Romney’s first TV ad of the campaign, built around a false attack on Obama, much of what Romney and company are doing is distorted.

Romney and Gingrich’s negatives with independents have skyrocketed in the course of the campaign, as each has struggled to define himself as a true conservative.

Whatever the outcome in Florida, Gingrich, who crushed Romney in South Carolina little more than a week ago, vows to continue for the long term. The vehemence and, in his view, unfairness, of the attacks against him by Romney and by various establishment elements may guarantee a result that the pro-Romney crew fears nearly as much as losing to Gingrich.

Meanwhile, there has been heavy fighting in the suburbs of Damascus and other parts of the country as Syrian regime forces battle insurgent Free Syrian Army forces. Indications are that the Assad regime, with its superior firepower, has gained the upper hand and has quelled the uprising just outside the capital.

Russia says it will not support a UN Security Council move to impose further sanctions on the Assad regime as the Arab League, having withdrawn its monitors following ongoing regime crackdowns on protesters, again denounced the regime’s behavior.

Iran, the Assad regime’s last ally in the Middle East, is focusing, at least in public, not so much on the woes of its friend but on the ongoing stand-off with the US over its nuclear weapons program, demanding that the US release an Iranian semiconductor scientist apparently being held in a federal facility in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Dublin for violating US export laws.

It continued for a second day to send mixed signals over an earlier threat to swiftly stop oil sales to European nations in advance of the European Union embargo going into effect.

Meanwhile, France, in the wake of an incident in which four of its troops were killed by an Afghan solider under their training, has ended all front-line military activities in Afghanistan and will pull out a year earlier than previously scheduled, at the end of 2013.

And outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, one of the principal targets of Arab Spring protests, arrived in New York on Saturday, ostensibly for medical treatment, the transition to a new government underway.

How long will he be in the US? Who knows?

Syria’s military has launched its toughest offensive yet to keep rebel forces out of the capital, activists say.

The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to flail in counter-productive ways, the latest evidence coming Saturday in Oakland.

Nearly 400 protesters were arrested during a wild sequence of events that began with a march outside Oakland City Hall to the closed Henry Kaiser Convention Center, where protest leaders directed that fences be torn down and the now vacant facility, established in 1914, be occupied as a new headquarters for Occupy Oakland.

Police blocked the move to take over the old convention center, prompting a fallback to Plan B of a building takeover, a march to the YMCA, where hundreds of protesters burst in on exercising members before being forced out of the building.

Later, Occupy Oakland protesters broke in to Oakland City Hall. While there, they vandalized the lobby and burned an American flag.

Protesters are threatening to shut down the Port of Oakland (which they have done very briefly on occasion) and Oakland International Airport. Which seems a brilliant way to alienate much of the 99% while doing very little to harm the 1%.

This is all quite stupid, reflective of a mindset that thought it clever to try to disrupt the annual Christmas Tree lighting in San Francisco’s Union Square.

As I mentioned in my “Ocupado” essay at the beginning of November, there is a large reserve force of fringe lefties in the Bay Area. Put that together with a major anarchist presence and a movement that essentially excuses such tactics on the cop-out rationale of “diversity of tactics” and you get dunderheaded thinking and bad results.

Brown and Democrats won a big victory late last week when the California Supreme Court ruled unanimously in favor of using the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps for the 2012 elections, despite a referendum against the plan that may yet qualify for the November ballot.

The Republican Party and its right-wing allies have spent millions to try to block the redistricting reform, which is eliminating the effects of the incumbent protection act of a decade ago.

Their strategy, one of the few keys left to them, has failed.

On Friday morning, Brown appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans. In the course of that, he strongly defended the state’s high-speed rail program, which his administration is revamping in the wake of various managerial issues and controversies, saying that he will not allow California to slip into “third world” status and that it must continue to be a leader inside the US, despite the budget problems he is working on.

Brown noted that 14 other advanced industrial nations have high-speed rail, but it has been consistently blocked in the US in favor of old energy economy approaches.

He also said that the program won’t cost as much as current estimates have it and that revenue from the state’s greenhouse gas cap and trade program can be used to help fund future segments of it.

Also on Friday, the California Air Resources Board unanimously approved new rules requiring that 15% of new cars sold in California by 2025 run on electricity, hydrogen or zero or ultr-low emissions systems. Given California’s role as a very large strategic market in the US, this could help transform the auto industry.

Meanwhile, Brown, who is working to gain business support for his initiative and neutralize business opposition, picked up big backing in the past few days from the California Teachers Association and the Service Employees International Union. While I’ve expected this all along, it should help dissuade backers of two remaining competing tax hike measures.

With the Think Long group of billionaires and former officeholders already, as predicted, dissuaded from their own tax initiative, two measures competitive with Brown’s are still out there. One by heiress Molly Munger would raise the income tax for most everyone in the state and, needless to say, does not poll well. Another by a coalition of left-liberal groups would establish a big tax hike on millionaires, which does poll well but lacks resources. Both tout benefits for education. But with CTA backing the Brown plan, they will find the going even tougher.

Legislators have till the end of Tuesday to move bills along from their houses of origin. One much hyped bill that is not moving along, the latest bid to establish a single-payer health care system in California, was defeated last week in the state Senate. It had previously passed, sans any funding mechanism, that is, only to be vetoed by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Brown, who backed single-payer in his 1992 presidential campaign, is neutral this time on the issue.

This week may also see Facebook’s initial public offering of stock, likely the largest Internet IPO ever and potentially a large revenue boon for the state.

Here’s what Obama’s week looks like, in public, that is.

On Monday, Obama will welcome President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia to the White House. As the White House pointedly notes with regard to this country which fought a notably unsuccessful war with Russia in 2008: “This year marks the 20th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Republic of Georgia and the two Presidents will discuss further strengthening the U.S. – Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership by enhancing cooperation in the fields of trade, tourism, energy, science, education, culture, and security. President Obama will underscore the importance of our defense cooperation with Georgia, including Georgia’s substantial contributions to international security operations in Afghanistan. The President will reconfirm U.S. support for the integrity of Georgia’s territory within its internationally recognized borders.”

Attention, Vladimir Putin.

On Tuesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House. On Wednesday, he will deliver remarks on the economy in Northern Virginia. On Thursday, Obama will deliver remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast. And on Friday, he will attend meetings in, yes, the White House.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 11:15 AM Pacific, Obama welcomes President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia to the White House.
The two will meet in the Oval Office.

At 12:15 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host the Diplomatic Corps Reception in the East Room.

At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama participates in an interview with YouTube and Google+ to discuss his State of the Union Address from the Roosevelt Room.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

Occupy Oakland’s disruptive moves may complicate life for Governor Jerry Brown.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

But Gingrich is a political Bibendum, a Michelin Man, someone who, too frequently, becomes puffed up like an alarmingly over-inflated tire at high speeds. … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Hundreds of Occupy movement protesters were arrested late Saturday and early Sunday morning in Oakland, after attempting to take over the city’s vacant convention center and breaking into the YMCA and Oakland City Hall.

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

Obama delivered remarks last night at the 99th Annual Alfalfa Club Dinner at the Capitol Hilton. As legend has it, the club is so named because the alfalfa plant spreads its roots wide in order to get a drink.

The event, a gathering of various Beltway political and media insiders, was off the record but Obama was reportedly humorous, as is the custom at these affairs. I think Obama skipped the first one of his presidency, which was not appreciated by the denizens of the capital.

Mitt Romney continues to lead Newt Gingrich heading into Tuesday’s Florida primary.

Gingrich has made quite a few mistakes, and Romney has benefited from a coordinated counter-attack on the former House speaker from many elements of the political and media establishments, conservative and otherwise.

As was the case with Romney’s first TV ad of the campaign, built around a false attack on Obama, much of what Romney and company are doing is distorted.

Romney and Gingrich’s negatives with independents have skyrocketed in the course of the campaign, as each has struggled to define himself as a true conservative.

Meanwhile, there is heavy fighting in the suburbs of Damascus as Syrian regime forces battle insurgent Free Syrian Army forces.

Russia says it will not support a UN Security Council move on Monday to impose further sanctions on the Assad regime as the Arab League, having withdrawn its monitors following ongoing regime crackdowns on protesters, again denounced the regime’s behavior.

Iran, the Assad regime’s last ally in the Middle East, focused today not so much on the woes of its friend but on the ongoing stand-off with the US over its nuclear weapons program, demanding that the US release an Iranian semiconductor scientist apparently being held in a federal facility in the San Francisco Bay Area city of Dublin for violating US export laws.

It also sent mixed signals today over an earlier threat to swiftly stop oil sales to European nations in advance of the European Union embargo going into effect.

And outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, one of the principal targets of Arab Spring protests, arrived in New York on Saturday, ostensibly for medical treatment, the transition to a new government underway.

How long will he be in the US? Who knows?

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Occupy Wall Street movement continues to flail in counter-productive ways, the latest evidence coming yesterday afternoon and late Saturday in Oakland.

Nearly 400 protesters were arrested during a wild sequence of events that began with a march outside Oakland City Hall to the closed Henry Kaiser Convention Center, where protest leaders directed that fences be torn down and the now vacant facility, established in 1914, be occupied as a new headquarters for Occupy Oakland.

Police blocked the move to take over the old convention center, prompting a fallback to Plan B of a building takeover, a march to the YMCA, where hundreds of protesters burst in on exercising members before being forced out of the building.

Later, Occupy Oakland protesters broke in to Oakland City Hall. While there, they vandalized the lobby and burned an American flag.

Protesters are threatening to shut down the Port of Oakland (which they have done very briefly on occasion) and Oakland International Airport. Which seems a brilliant way to alienate much of the 99% while doing very little to harm the 1%.

This is all quite stupid, reflective of a mindset that thought it clever to try to disrupt the annual Christmas Tree lighting in San Francisco’s Union Square.

As I mentioned in my “Ocupado” essay at the beginning of November, there is a large reserve force of fringe lefties in the Bay Area. Put that together with a major anarchist presence and a movement that essentially excuses such tactics on the cop-out rationale of “diversity of tactics” and you get dunderheaded thinking and bad results.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discusses the blueprint he put forward this week in the State of the Union Address, decries a Republican senator who vows to slow and delay all appointments unless Obama fires the new consumer finance protection chief, and calls for campaign finance and lobbying reforms.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

At 4:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at the 99th Annual Alfalfa Club Dinner at the Capitol Hilton.

This is a gathering of various Beltway insiders and elites. The speeches are supposed to be humorous.

Obama has no scheduled public events on Sunday at this point.

And his public schedule for the week ahead looks pretty light at this point. Though he will spend much of Monday with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Which will not please Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who prosecuted a successful war against Georgia in 2008.

The battle to see which Republican will face Obama rages on in Florida, where a combination of Newt Gingrich mistakes and an all-out assault by Mitt Romney and a procession of political and media allies has given Romney an edge in the weekend before the Tuesday primary.

Both Romney and Gingrich have seen their negatives skyrocket in recent weeks, as each has taken ever more extreme positions to bolster their standing with the Republicans’ conservative primary voting base.

While US politics play out, the situation in Syria is rapidly deteriorating.

The UN Security Council is discussing moves now in New York, with Russia still standing by its longtime ally in the Assad regime.

But it’s not clear how much control Assad has left. After repeatedly dunking agreements with the Arab League, and then railing against increased sanctions, Assad is faced with a country that is near civil war.

The Arab League said today that it is suspending its monitoring mission in Syria because of “the critical deterioration of the situation”. The pan-Arab bloc also says it is holding talks with Russia – one of the main opponents of the Arab League peace plan – ahead of a United Nations meeting in New York on Monday. The main Syrian opposition group says it will go to the UN to appeal for protection from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

More pockets of the country have fallen to the so-called Free Syrian Army, and some full-scale fighting is underway in a variety of places, though it is hard to be sure precisely what is happening since the Assad regime banned international news media nearly a year ago.

Meanwhile, France, in the wake of an incident in which four of its troops were killed by an Afghan solider under their training, has ended all front-line military activities in Afghanistan and will pull out a year earlier than previously scheduled, at the end of 2013.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events.

Brown and Democrats won a big victory yesterday when the California Supreme Court ruled unanimously in favor of using the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps for the 2012 elections, despite a referendum against the plan that may yet qualify for the November ballot.

The Republican Party and its right-wing allies have spent millions to try to block the redistricting reform, which is eliminating the effects of the incumbent protection act of a decade ago.

Their strategy, one of the few keys left to them, has failed.

Yesterday morning, Brown appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans.

In the course of that, he strongly defended the state’s high-speed rail program, which his administration is revamping in the wake of various managerial issues and controversies, saying that he will not allow California to slip into “third world” status and that it must continue to be a leader inside the US, despite the budget problems he is working on.

Brown noted that 14 other advanced industrial nations have high-speed rail, but it has been consistently blocked in the US in favor of old energy economy approaches.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

What should he do? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $99.56 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $14 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Finance chiefs at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland have been pushing on the Eurozone crisis. There are signs of a breakthrough on Greece. Supported by the US, the IMF is putting more pressure on Europe to add to its rescue fund. The US will not put more money into the IMF until EU leaders ante up some more.

** JERRY-RIGGING: HUGE LOSS FOR CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS AS BROWN MOVES FORWARD ON HIS PLANS. the California Republican Party put most of its remaining marbles on a long-shot bid to derail the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The effort went on for more than a year, first to undermine and try to delegitimize the work of the commission set up by an Arnold Schwarzenegger-backed initiative to take legislative and congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislators — a commission which, mind you, had an over-representation of Republicans on it — and then to block the state Senate districts by a referendum.

That effort ended in abject failure today, with a 7-0 vote of the Republican majority California Supreme Court upholding the commission’s lines even if a referendum to overturn them does qualify for the November ballot. Here’s the ruling.

It was not much of a surprise, in that the Court had previously turned down the Republican Party’s call to have it appoint “special masters” to draw new district lines and had affirmed that the commission’s lines meet constitutional requirements.

So now the elections move forward in districts which top Republicans fear will yield a two-thirds Democratic majority.

The only reason this is even an issue is that the last redistricting a decade ago was essentially an incumbent protection act, which locked in greater Republican representation than was warranted eve as the state was turning away from the increasingly right-wing party.

Republicans spent millions they don’t really have on various court challenges of the commission’s work, not just on the state Senate lines but on congressional lines as well, and on efforts for qualifying a referendum.

If it does qualify, then they have to spend millions more to try to win it, in the face of widespread condemnation of their sour grapes politics. Or they can let the referendum die an ignominious death on the ballot.

Why are the Republicans acting this way? Because anti-tax/anti-government Talibanism is the ultimate dogma of the party. It’s evidently their true bottom line issue. Which is a bit odd. As we saw with Schwarzenegger’s own experiences getting temporary tax hikes adopted in 2009, and Brown’s painstaking and unsuccessful effort to gain a few legislative votes to merely place a tax extensions on the ballot last year.

Meanwhile, Brown keeps moving ahead with his revenue initiative for the fall. With the Think Long Committee having given up on its clearly foolhardy plan to cut taxes for the rich and corporations while extending the sales tax to all manner of services, I’m hearing that proponents of at least one of two other competing initiatives are beginning to grasp the futility of their efforts. But we shall see.

Brown has been meeting with business executives, publicly and privately, this week as he’s again traveled up and down the state. And he’s raising money for his initiative, with over $2 million taken in.

The latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll this week is promising, showing what the PPIC calls “a strong majority” in favor of the initiative. If Brown can win over additional business support, while neutralizing major business opposition, he should be in good position for the fall.

But more needs to be done to demonstrate improved governmental efficiency. No one likes to think money is wasted.

** NEW POLL: MOST WANT GOVERNMENT TO AID CONSUMERS ON FORECLOSURES. In direct contradiction of putative on-and-off Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney’s views, most voters want the government to try to help homeowners caught in the foreclosure crisis.

Late last year in Las Vegas, a key epicenter of the housing crisis, Romney said that underwater homeowners should be left to drown.

This attitude doesn’t fly with the public.

According to a new Gallup Poll, 58% want to the federal government to help stop the wave of foreclosures. Only 34% agree with Romney’s position.

But most Republicans agree with Romney. (Most independents do not, by a wide margin.)

I’d like to see those numbers in Nevada and other states hit hard by the crisis.

In any event, if Romney does go on to win the Republican nomination, he is badly positioned on this key issue for the general election.

The majority of Americans, 58%, prefer that the government act to prevent foreclosures, whereas 34% prefer the housing market resolve its problems on its own. A sharp partisan divide exists, with 76% of Democrats and 61% of independents favoring government action and 64% of Republicans opposing it. …

One reason so many Americans may favor the government’s taking further steps to moderate the foreclosure situation may have to do with their concerns about declining home values. The presence of a large number of foreclosed properties in the market tends to drive down prices and home values. One in five homes purchased during the third quarter of 2011 was a foreclosure. It is no wonder that half of all Americans and 57% of homeowners say they are worried their home values will not increase this year.

Speaking early this morning at the University of Michigan, President Barack Obama called for an overhaul of the higher education financial aid system, warning that colleges and universities that fail to control spiraling tuition costs could lose federal funds.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Michigan, Maryland, and Washington.

Obama delivered remarks early this morning at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor expanding on his State of the Union proposals to keep college affordable.

He then flew out of Detroit on Air Force One to Joint Base Andrews.

At 9:25 AM Pacific, Obama arrives Joint Base Andrews, where he boards Marine One and flies to Cambridge, Maryland.

At 10:20 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at the Democratic Issues Conference in Cambridge, Maryland. He then flies back to the White House on Marine One.

At 12 noon Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.

At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a fundraiser at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington.

Obama is on Day 3 of his post-State of the Union “An America That’s Built To Last Tour.”

Polls show that his address was very well-received by most voters. And, as you can see in yesterday’s edition of NWN, there is a very good reason for that.

Obama’s speech and message mirror what most Americans think on most issues of concern.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are raging.

Yesterday was not a good day for Newt Gingrich, who has been on the receiving end of an organized establishment conservative political and media gang-up.

He gave a too hot speech, then followed that up with a somewhat subdued debate performance.

Mitt Romney, who has regained a lead in Florida, was very aggressive in last night’s debate, but he was caught in several lies along the way.

He claimed that he didn’t have an ad attacking Gingrich falsely claiming the ex-speaker had called Spanish a “ghetto language.” Not only does he have such an ad, he appears at the end of it saying he authorized the thing.

He claimed that his investments in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are in a blind trust. Which would not be a very good excuse anyway, since his Swiss bank account, also supposedly in a blind trust, was closed at his behest. In any event, the investments are not in a blind trust.

And he attempted to blur his Democratic presidential primary vote for Paul Tsongas in 1992 by saying he’s never voted for a Democrat when a Republican was running. It was a presidential election; obviously a Republican was running.

Prior to the debate, Romney was forced to acknowledge that he has several offshore investment accounts that are not on his financial disclosure forms, including one in an outfit called “Barracuda Investments.”

But Gingrich didn’t make a lot of hay on these points. He did better than much of the media, which hates to be shown up — as it has been both in the take-down of CNN host John King last week and in the supposedly dead Gingrich’s “surprise” win in South Carolina — but had only a slight edge over Romney in my view.

Romney and his forces have accelerated their spending in Florida, with more than $15 million accounted for, just a few days after the total looked like $13 million.

Gingrich and his backers are spending far less than half that.

Unless Gingrich makes some adjustments, as I discussed in the essay linked below, he will lose Florida. Not that he has to win it, but it’s certainly advisable.

As the UN Security Council considers today what to do about the deteriorating situation in Syria, rebels have seized a suburb just outside the center of Damascus, Syria’s capital city.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta outlined a plan yesterday for absorbing $487 billion in defense cuts over the coming decade. It can be done, said the veteran California political figure, by shrinking U.S. ground forces (principally the Army and less so, the Marines), slowing the purchase of a next generation stealth fighter, and retiring older planes and ships.

While US politics play out, the situation in Syria is rapidly deteriorating.

The UN Security Council is discussing moves now in New York, with Russia still standing by its longtime ally in the Assad regime.

But it’s not clear how much control Assad has left. After repeatedly dunking agreements with the Arab League, and then railing against increased sanctions, Assad is faced with a country that is near civil war.

In fact, a key city just outside the capital has apparently fallen to the so-called Free Syrian Army, about which remarkably little is known.

Given Syria’s longstanding position at the center of gravity in the Arab world, and its alliance with Iran, this is a combustible situation.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** 10:15 AM PACIFIC UPDATE: The California Supreme Court ruled this morning that the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s districts for the state Senate will be used in the 2012 elections. This is a big and not unexpected defeat for conservative Republicans.

The vote on the Republican majority court was 7-0. Here is the ruling.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Southern California and Northern California today.

The California Supreme Court is expected to rule this morning on whether or not to deny the Citizens Redistricting Commission’s state Senate maps as counting of signatures for a referendum on the matter continues.

Last night at the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce dinner, Brown laid out what he’s dubbed a “Call To Action” to LA business leaders to stand with him on his public pension reform plan and his balanced budget plan, which includes his temporary tax hike initiative.

Alarmed by Brown’s work with the business community, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association joined forces with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a fixture in far right circles, to urge business leaders not to succumb to Brown’s blandishments.

Brown appeared last night on the NBC Nightly News in an exclusive interview with former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw on his new/renewed governorship and national political dynamics.

Early this morning, he appeared on KGO and KCBS radio in the San Francisco Bay Area to discuss his budget and public pension reform plans.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

What should he do? … From my January 26th essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $14 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta outlined a plan today for absorbing $487 billion in defense cuts over the coming decade. It can be done, said the veteran California political figure, by shrinking U.S. ground forces (principally the Army and less so, the Marines), slowing the purchase of a next generation stealth fighter, and retiring older planes and ships.

** QUICK HITS. The big Republican presidential debate is at 5 PM Pacific in Jacksonville, Florida on CNN. Here is the live link. … Tonight at the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce dinner, Governor Jerry Brown lays out what he’s dubbed a “Call To Action” to LA business leaders to stand with him on his public pension reform plan and his balanced budget plan, which includes his temporary tax hike initiative. … Alarmed by Brown’s work with the business community, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association joined forces with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, a fixture in far right circles, to urge business leaders not to succumb to Brown’s blandishments. … Brown also appears tonight on the NBC Nightly News in an exclusive interview with former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw on his new/renewed governorship and national political dynamics.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)? Most in the media and political worlds are now adjusting to the reality that Mitt Romney is not “inevitable.” But that doesn’t mean that Newt Gingrich can’t blow it. Again.

What should he do? …

From my new essay.

** NEW SURVEY: OBAMA’S STATE OF THE UNION ALMOST ENTIRELY IN LINE WITH VOTERS’ VIEWS. A new breakdown of polling data by the Gallup Poll reveals a very good reason why President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday night found very widespread favor with voters.

It was essentially structured along lines that they have already approved.

I wonder if they look at polls in the White House. Hmm …

Here are the issue areas in which Obama was largely or even entirely in line with popular opinion:

Getting out of Iraq. People were tired of this war, one of the biggest geopolitical mistakes in American history, a long time ago.

Killing Osama bin Laden and prosecuting the war on terrorism. This is a big winner for Obama.

Pride in the US Armed Forces. It’s the most admired institution in the US.

Changing the corporate tax code to reward job creation at home. Voters are getting hip to the off-shore/out-source issue in a big way.

Trade policy with China. More favor playing tougher with a rising China economic power.

Job training. Big majorities for increased job training programs. When is there not?

Illegal immigration. While most want stronger border security, a big majority favors steps to allow illegal immigrants already here to remain, and a smaller majority wants the children of illegals to gain legal status automatically by attending college of joining the armed forces.

Oil and gas exploration. Most want more oil and natural gas development in the US.

Alternative energy development. Big majorities favor more government intervention to help the renewable energy industry, and agree with Obama that it should be preferred over the traditional oil industry which has reaped a century of big government subsidies.

Infrastructure. Big majorities agree with Obama that more infrastructure spending is needed, and that it is a good source of good jobs in the process.

Tax fairness. Most agree with Obama that the tax system is unfair, and that the wealthy need to pay more.

Government gridlock. Most everyone agrees that Washington is dysfunctional. Trick question to see who’s napping.

Governmental efficiency. Negative views of the federal government, its size, power, and efficiency, have grown to near record levels. Most agree with Obama that it needs to become more efficient, even as many continue to fear it.

Defense. Obama is pushing a plan for an improved yet leaner military. That tracks with popular attitudes. Most are pleased with the armed forces in terms of strength and preparedness, while mindful of possible future threats such as cyberwar. But voters are torn on the question of military spending, with a 39% plurality saying we spend too much, 35% saying the right amount, and 22% too little. The latter group is the one being addressed by the Republican presidential candidates, who claim that Obama is eviscerating our military strength.

The only areas not so much?

Economic fairness. Gallup has polling indicating a split over whether or not the US economy is unfair in general, even as it has other polling showing a strong desire to tax the rich more heavily, with strong distrust of the financial sector.

The improving state of the Union. You’ve seen the numbers here on that. Widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, even as economic confidence rises.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 2:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers remarks on energy security at Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado. At 10 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the new energy economy in Las Vegas, Nevada. The events are netcast live here on New West Notes. If you want to mute the audio, click on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

President Barack Obama visited Conveyor Engineering and Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids, Iowa yesterday on his “An America That’s Built To Last” post-State of the Union tour, reminiscing some about the state that gave him his breakthrough victory in 2008.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.

At 10 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at UPS Las Vegas South about the new energy economy.

This event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 12:05 PM Pacific, Obama departs Las Vegas on Air Force en route Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado.

At 1:35 PM Pacific, Obama arrives Buckley Air Force Base in Aurora, Colorado.

At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Buckley Air Force Base on American energy and the steps his administration is taking to promote energy security.

This event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 3:15 PM Pacific, Obama departs Aurora, Colorado on Air Force One en route Detroit, Michigan.

At 5:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Detroit.

Obama is on Day 2 of his post-State of the Union An America That’s Built To Last Tour.

Polls show that his address was very well-received by most voters.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are raging.

In Congress, they are trying to take away Obama’s power to approve the Keystone XL pipeline project, hoping instead to vest it in an industry-friendly regulatory body.

This is a desperation move, since they’ve been acknowledging Obama and the State Department’s authority all along.

And battles are raging in the Republican presidential race. The Republican presidential field debates tonight in Jacksonville on CNN.

The Drudge Report and other right-wing media fixtures are launching a coordinated assault on Newt Gingrich. Their problem, aside from the merits or demerits of their case, is that if he wins they become far less relevant as a lobbying force in the Republican Party.

Angry Congressional Republicans are trying to strip President Barack Obama of his authority over the controversial proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to Texas. The attempt is probably unconstitutional.

The race is quite volatile now, with signs that Mitt Romney has recovered some of his past position in the Florida primary.

Gingrich vowed yesterday in Florida, historic home of the manned space program, that he will establish a Moon base by 2020. The crowd was favorably disposed. Rival Mitt Romney likes to make fun of the space program.

Romney and his forces have accelerated their spending in Florida, with more than $15 million accounted for, just a few days after the total looked like $13 million.

Gingrich and his backers are spending less than half that.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Southern California.

At 12:30 PM, he celebrates the 50th anniversary of San Juan Capistrano at an event at El Adobe De Capistrano Restaurant.

At 7 PM, he attends and addresses the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce Inaugural Dinner at the JW Marriott at LA Live.

Some higher ed leaders are starting to get it in California. The California State University board of trustees voted yesterday to set some limits on new campus president salaries. Top staff pay and perks have been going up in the CSU and UC systems while big cutbacks hit elsewhere.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $14 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

This anti-Newt Gingrich attack ad has just started running in Nevada in advance of the February 4th Republican presidential caucuses there.

** QUICK HITS. Newt Gingrich vowed today in Florida, historic home of the manned space program, that he will establish a Moon base by 2020. The crowd was favorably disposed. Rival Mitt Romney likes to make fun of the space program. … Some higher ed leaders are starting to get it in California. The California State University board of trustees voted today to set some limits on new campus president salaries. Top staff pay and perks have been going up in the CSU and UC systems while big cutbacks hit elsewhere. … Governor Jerry Brown announced the streamlining of some environmental regulations. More to follow. …

** ROMNEY TRIES TO ARREST SILVER STATE SLIDE. There hasn’t been a public poll in Nevada, the next contest in the Republican nomination race, for over a month. But something must be telling Mitt Romney, who led then, that things are going south there in advance of the February 4th presidential caucuses, because today his campaign put this TV ad on the air in the Las Vegas and Reno media markets.

As you’ll see, I think Newt Gingrich has a real opportunity to win Nevada, which, if he wins Florida, would be another crackling blow to a reeling “inevitable” candidate. Romney took Nevada in 2008 and has long been favored there. But he’s vulnerable.

Romney’s argument, of course, is that it’s the government’s fault for the financial crisis for encouraging the expansion of home ownership, not that lenders enticed vulnerable consumers or that high finance types turned mortgages into unsustainable but highly lucrative financial products.

And he neglects to mention that he’s already been revealed as an investor in Freddie Mac, the outfit that engaged Gingrich’s consulting firm for years, or that he favors having underwater mortgage holders drown.

VOICEOVER: “While Nevada families lost everything in the housing crisis, Newt Gingrich cashed in.

Gingrich was paid over $1.6 million by the scandal-ridden agency that helped create the crisis. An historian. Really?

Sanctioned for ethics violations.

Gingrich resigned from Congress in disgrace.

And then cashed in as a DC insider.

If Newt wins, this guy would be very happy.” (over photo of Barack Obama)

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 3:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers remarks at Intel’s Ocotillo Campus outside Phoenix, Arizona. At 9:55 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids. The events are netcast live here on New West Notes. If you want to mute the audio, click on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it is unlikely to raise interest rates before late 2014, extending a period of record-low rates.

** NEW SURVEY: FINANCIAL WORRIES AS HIGH AS ANY IN PAST TWO DECADES. A new Gallup Poll survey indicates that, even though economic confidence has gone up some, financial worries continue to be widespread.

Whether it’s accurate or not, half the people in the country think they are worse off financially now than they were a year ago.

These worries are equivalent to what they were 20 years ago, when incumbent George Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton.

Of course, one big difference is that times were good when Bush took office. Whereas Obama inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Americans’ worries about maintaining their standard of living (51%), or being able to pay medical bills (43%) or losing their job (34%) in the next 12 months are among the highest Gallup has measured in the past 20 years, on par with the levels seen in 1991 and 1992. …

Gallup did not ask this question in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, so it’s possible the levels of financial worry were higher then. However, the January 2011 update showed that economic concerns were elevated in all three areas nearly two years after the recession officially ended. Importantly, Americans’ financial concerns remain high even as economic confidence is improving. …

US Navy SEALs, parachuting into Somalia, rescued two aid workers, an American woman named Jessica Buchanan and a Danish man, being held by jihadists. The raid went down last night around the time time of the State of the Union address. The operation was carried out by SEAL Team Six, the unit which carried out the Osama bin Laden raid. There were no American casualties.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Iowa, Arizona, and Nevada.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then departed Joint Base Andrews on Air Force One route Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

At 9:20 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

At 9:40 AM Pacific, Obama tours Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids.

At 9:55 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Conveyor Engineering & Manufacturing in Cedar Rapids.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama departs Cedar Rapids on Air Force One en route Phoenix, Arizona.

At 2:35 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Phoenix, Arizona.

At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at Intel’s Ocotillo Campus.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 5:35 PM Pacific, Obama departs Phoenix on Air Force One en route Las Vegas, Nevada.

At 6:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Las Vegas.

Obama delivered a well-received State of the Union address last night, focusing on the end of the war in Iraq, the demise of Osama bin Laden and much of Al Qaeda and his themes of economic revival and modified populism.

The optics of Obama’s case were aided by having representatives of the two most popular businesspeople in the country — investor Warren Buffett and the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs — on hand in the gallery with First Lady Michelle Obama.

Laurene Powell Jobs, an icon of a famous fortune based not on financial manipulation but great products, was joined by Warren Buffett’s secretary, Debbie Bosanek, who pays a higher tax rate under the system now in place than her mega-billionaire boss does.

Now he is on a three-day/five-state tour playing up his key sub-themes of ramping up American manufacturing, the new energy economy, and technological innovation and worker skills.

These tour events have a new theme, incidentally. “An America Built To Last.”

The Obama campaign, and of course these really are re-election events, is contrasting Obama’s approach to capitalism with what they see as the clearly unsustainable model promoted by conservative Republicans.

While the State of the Union played out, US Navy SEALs executed a daring raid inside Somalia to rescue two Western aid workers, an American woman and a Danish man, who were kidnapped by jihadists seeking to block efforts to clear mine fields, which the jihadists style as Western imperialism.

The American woman, Jessica Buchanan, in captivity for three months, had a serious medical condition which prompted Obama’s decision to launch the raid.

Obama had baffled some observers just before beginning last night’s State of the Union address when he grasped Defense Secretary Leon Panetta by the hand, telling the veteran California political figure: “Good job!”

There were no Blackhawks down this time in Somalia. The SEALs parachuted in and killed the jihadist guards, most of whom were evidently sleeping off a bout with khat, a popular narcotic in that part of the world.

If it’s a fair fight, something has gone wrong.

Prior to these events, we a wild day in Republican presidential politics.

A part of that wild day in Florida with a California connection saw Palm Springs Congresswoman Mary Bono’s husband, Florida Congressman Connie Mack, crash a Newt Gingrich event trying to embarrass the ex-speaker on “unanswered questions” about his consulting work for Freddie Mac. The outfit is positioned in conservative lexicon as the cause of the financial crisis, at best a very incomplete view.

President Barack Obama delivered the State of the Union address last night at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.

Of course, in the course of going through Mitt Romney’s release of tax information since 2010, it emerges that he invested in Freddie Mac. But there are bigger fish to fry in that catch, and the DNC is focusing heavily on the fact that Romney is studiously not revealing much about his finances during his leveraged buyout heyday, from which he gained the fortune which yields him more than $40 million in investment income in two years while he was running for president. (But still a Bain Capital partner.)

The big news of the day on the Republican side was the release by Romney of his 2010 tax returns and 2011 tax estimate. Of course, he is avoiding revealing his records from the time in which he acquired most of his vast wealth, revealing only his dealings while a full-time candidate for president, presumably the most sanitized time of his life financially.

There’s plenty of coverage of this, but it seems obvious to me that Romney making well over $40 million off of investments, paying at a rate of less than 14%, with evidence of large holdings in Caribbean off-shore havens, and even a Swiss bank account, played in perfectly to Obama’s themes of fairness in the SOTU.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles.

At 1:30 PM, he speaks at the California District Attorneys Association Roundtable at the Sheraton Delfina in Santa Monica.

Brown has several additional events in Southern California today and tomorrow.

He got good news in the form of the latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll.

The poll showed what we’ve already discussed here quite a few times.

Brown’s numbers are still pretty good, with a job approval of 46% and disapproval down in the 30s.

Better yet, there is very strong support for his revenue initiative, with upwards of two-thirds in favor.

But the trigger cuts are unpopular.

California voters always want to cut except when it comes to realistic specifics.

All they want to cut is unspecified waste, fraud, and abuse, and corrections, a tiny sliver of the budget which is being cut heavily by Brown.

They of course have no idea where most of the money is spent, i.e., on education.

Is this because of mediocre media coverage, or a persistent ignorance?

Meanwhile, California Democratic legislators are showing their special tone deafness with a lawsuit attempting to take away the ability of state Controller John Chiang to block their paychecks until they produce a legitimate budget, as he did to great acclaim last June.

The Democratic legislators are more reality-based than their Republican counterparts, but it is, unfortunately, all relative.

The state auditor issued a report saying that the Brown Administration has not finished fixing the previous management problems at the High-Speed Rail Authority. I’ll have more on that.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

It’s a combination of unforced Gingrich errors, erroneous media coverage, and Romney’s nature peeking out all too often from behind the slick facade that has led to these seemingly shocking twists and turns. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $98 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 6 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address at the United States Capitol. Following the address, White House advisors will take part in an interactive online town hall. The event is netcast live on New West Notes. If you want to mute the audio, click on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

** QUICK HITS. With the State of the Union, netcast live here on NWN, coming up shortly, it’s been a big day in presidential politics. There were even a few developments in California politics. … A part of a wild day in Florida with a California connection saw Palm Springs Congresswoman Mary Bono’s husband, Florida Congressman Connie Mack, crash a Newt Gingrich event trying to embarrass the ex-speaker on “unanswered questions” about his consulting work for Freddie Mac. The outfit is in conservative lexicon as the cause of the financial crisis, at best a very incomplete view. … Of course, in the course of going through Mitt Romney’s release of tax information since 2010, it emerges that he invested in Freddie Mac. But there are bigger fish to fry in that catch, and the DNC is focusing heavily on the fact that Romney is studiously not revealing much about his finances during his leveraged buyout heyday, from which he gained the fortune which yields him more than $40 million in investment income in two years while he was running for president. (But still a Bain Capital partner.) … Laurene Powell Jobs, widow of Steve Jobs, will be sitting with First Lady Michelle Obama tonight as the president delivers his speech which will provide a meta-context for Romney’s views that no criticism of financialized capitalism is legitimate. … Speaking of what is and is not legitimate, California Democratic legislators are showing their special tone deafness with a lawsuit attempting to take away the ability of state Controller John Chiang to block their paychecks until they produce a legitimate budget, as he did to great acclaim last June. … The Democratic legislators are more reality-based than their Republican counterparts, but it is, unfortunately, all relative. … The state auditor issued a report saying that the Brown Administration has not finished fixing the previous management problems at the High-Speed Rail Authority. I’ll have more on that.

The pro-Newt Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future has just gone up in Florida with an apparent huge buy for this ad, hitting Mitt Romney for being the intellectual author of “Obamacare,” and for being a self-described “moderate” and “progressive,” complete with footage of President Obama praising Romney.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** GOING FOR THE KILL. It’s thermonuclear political warfare in the Florida Republican presidential primary between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The latter, who’s lost his big lead over Gingrich, has been blasting him for weeks on the airwaves in Florida and started an even tougher round of ads after losing in a landslide in South Carolina.

Then Romney tried an oppo dump on Gingrich in last night’s debate in Tampa, even as word came that the $7 million-plus already spent on Romney’s behalf in the Sunshine State would be augmented by another $5.5 million in the next week.

Now the main pro-Gingrich super PAC is getting in the act in a big way. With the ad you see above.

It doesn’t focus on Bain Capital or various other controversies around Romney’s wealth. After all, the big story today in the race is Romney’s limited but still very striking financial revelations. And the Democrats are going after Romney directly on that front now.

This ad seeks to define Romney for all time as what more conservative Republicans call a squish.

I particularly enjoy the still shot of Romney, which makes him look quite Transylvanian.

Here’s the text below. The narrator is female, incidentally. How much is the buy? “Multi-million dollar,” as it’s described to me. Others report $5 million. Or $6 million. But don’t be surprised if the ad mix is adjusted down the stretch.

Announcer: “Think you know Mitt? Think again.”

Romney: Those who follow the path we pursued will find it’s the best path and we’ll end up with a nation that’s taken a mandate approach.”

Announcer: “When Mitt Romney invented government run healthcare, Romney advisers helped Barack Obama write the disastrous Obamacare.

Romney: “We put the two together and exchange and the President’s copying that idea. I’m glad to hear that.”

Obama: “I agree with Mitt Romney, who recently said he’s proud of what he accomplished on healthcare.”

Announcer: “Romneycare sent costs spiraling out of control, hiking premiums, squeezing household budgets.”

Romney: “I’m not a partisan Republican. I’m someone who is moderate and my views are progressive.”

Obama: “I agree with Mitt Romney.”

Announcer: “Now desperate to save his failing campaign, Romney promises to repeal Obamacare. How can we trust him? Think you know Mitt?”

Romney: “I’m not a partisan Republican. I’m someone who is moderate and my views are progressive.”

Announcer: “Think again?”

The head of Egypt’s still ruling military council says the decades-long state of emergency in the country will be lifted on Wednesday, except for cases of “thuggery.” (Is that anything like attacking protesters?) Islamist parties have won over 70% of the vote in national parliamentary elections.

** NEW SURVEY: ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE STILL LOW, BUT BEST IN EIGHT MONTHS. A new Gallup Poll survey on the eve of the State of the Union address indicates that economic confidence has continued to go up.

It’s just not very high at all.

But it is back to what it was a year ago.

U.S. economic confidence is at -25 in the week ending Jan. 22, improved from -29 the prior week and the best since the week ending May 22, 2011. …

In this regard, Americans are no more optimistic now than they were at this time in each of the past two years. In 2010 and 2011, perceptions of the economy waned as the year progressed. At this point, it is unclear whether that will also be the case in 2012. …

President Barack Obama delivers the final State of the Union address of his first term tonight at 6 PM Pacific. It’s a policy address, of course, which in this election year means it will be highly political.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

At 6 PM Pacific, he delivers the State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

Obama is spending much of the day prepping for the State of the Union address, and for his subsequent three-day/five-state tour of the Midwestern state of Iowa and Michigan and the Western states of Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.

The tour will focus on Obama’s themes of economic revival and modified populism, with sub-themes of developing American manufacturing, the new energy economy, and skills and innovation.

The remaining Republicans who hope to take him on debated last night in Tampa, Florida, with the Florida primary now one week away.

Mitt Romney has long counted it a major redoubt of his candidacy, but he’s lost a huge lead there to Newt Gingrich and now trails in several polls.

So Romney came out of the gate dropping his frontrunner’s pose and unloading a kitchen sink of opposition research on the former House speaker.

He scored some points, too, as Gingrich opted to look more presidential and less junkyard dog-ish last night, not getting into counters and counter-attacks while focusing more on his positive conservative message.

I’m not sure, however, that either man’s change in pose helped him all that much.

Ricn Santorum and Ron Paul were mostly afterthoughts in the debate. Poor Santorum. He was truly robbed by the media’s terrible reporting of Iowa.

The dust-up was only moderately engaging, and the event was a largely low-energy affair, in large part because NBC insisted that the audience remain silent. I don’t think they can really do that, actually, and I suspect that Gingrich, who seemed surprised and taken off his game, won’t allow that to happen on Thursday night.

The big news of the day on the Republican side is not the aftermath of the debate, but the release by Romney of his 2010 tax returns and 2011 tax estimate. Of course, he is avoiding revealing his records from the time in which he acquired most of his vast wealth, revealing only his dealings while a full-time candidate for president, presumably the most sanitized time of his life financially.

There’s plenty of coverage of this, but it seems obvious to me that Romney making well over $40 million off of investments, paying at a rate of less than 14%, with evidence of large holdings in Caribbean off-shore havens, and even a Swiss bank account, will play in perfectly to Obama’s themes of fairness tonight.

And they won’t help much with Republican voters in Florida, either.

Yesterday, prior to all this, there was ample evidence of the new reality in the Republican race.

Clearly alarmed by several polls showing his big Florida lead gone, replaced by a Gingrich lead, Romney attacked the ex-House speaker today on multiple fronts, zeroing in especially on his consulting work for Freddie Mac, which he claims was responsible for the mortgage crisis. Naturally, it turns out that Romney himself invested in Freddie Mac.

Gingrich, challenged to release his Freddie Mac consulting contract, did so late yesterday. It shows him to have been a consultant, not formally a lobbyist. Whatever that means.

Gingrich has been massively out-spent in Florida, with at least $7 million spent there on Romney’s behalf already and another $5.5 million now committed in new spending. That adds up to $13 million. Late yesterday the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future received a $5 million contribution from Miriam Adelson, wife of Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, who himself previously gave $5 million to the super PAC.

Mitt Romney, now behind in Florida despite more than $7 million having already been spent on his behalf there, launched a flurry of personal attacks against Newt Gingrich in last night’s debate in Tampa, Floria.

Which can raise the specter of why a Vegas casino mogul is essentially floating the Gingrich campaign in the big primaries to date.

But Romney’s super PAC people aren’t revealing where the money supporting his campaign is coming from. It’s been anecdotally reported that much if not most of it comes from Romney’s old partners at Bain Capital.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, working it for Romney, blasted Gingrich as “an embarrassment to the party” for his controversies as speaker. Which prompted Sarah Palin to say that Christie, making a “rookie mistake” is playing into the media’s hands by “getting his panties in a wad” with wild attacks against the potential presidential nominee. Just what Christie needs, a slap fight with Sarah Palin.

In the Iranian crisis, European Union foreign minister Catherine Ashton is in Israel today, meeting with Israeli leaders on the day after the EU adopted a new round of tough sanctions on Iran, including an oil embargo.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak welcomed the EU embargo on Iranian oil, but said more may need to be done to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Ashton is also trying to help jump-start the Israeli/Palestinian solution.

Meanwhile, our friend India is not only continuing to buy Iranian oil but is also planning to pay in gold, which may help Iran deal with impending banking problems.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

But Romney is Romney, and Gingrich has skills, so between Romney’s radical capitalist contradictions coming to the fore — complete with his bizarre attacks on any criticism of Wall Street ways — and Gingrich’s ability to get back in debates, the undead has risen. No wonder that Romney is now trying to skip future debates. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

The European Union, following the lead of Britain, France, and Germany, today approved a long list of new sanctions against Iran, including a ban on oil imports. The EU gets 20% of its oil from Iran.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** QUICK HITS. Clearly alarmed by several polls showing his big Florida lead gone, replaced by a Newt Gingrich lead, Mitt Romney attacked the ex-House speaker today on multiple fronts, zeroing in especially on his consulting work for Freddie Mac, which he claims was responsible for the mortgage crisis. Naturally, it turns out that Romney himself invested in Freddie Mac. … Gingrich, challenged to release his Freddie Mac consulting contract, did so late today. … Gingrich has been massively out-spent in Florida, with at least $7 million spent there on Romney’s behalf already. Today the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future received a $5 million contribution from Miriam Adelson, wife of Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, who himself previously gave $5 million to the super PAC. … New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, working it for Romney, blasted Gingrich as “an embarrassment to the party” for his controversies as speaker. Which prompted Sarah Palin to say that Christie, making a “rookie mistake” is playing into the media’s hands by “getting his panties in a wad” with wild attacks against the potential presidential nominee. … Just what Christie needs, a slap fight with Sarah Palin.

** NEW SURVEY ON THE STATE OF THE UNION: THE DISPLEASURE PRINCIPLE. A new Gallup Poll survey on the eve of the State of the Union provides a wide-ranging profile of American displeasure.

Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the state of the Union in a number of key measures.

Chief among them, of course, is the economy.

Satisfaction with the economy is down a whopping 23 points since January 2008.

Then 36% were satisfied. Today it’s only 13% who are satisfied, with a stunning 83% dissatisfied with the state of the US economy.

But satisfaction is actually up in two key areas: National security from terrorism and military strength and preparedness.

Which makes me wonder why the Republicans bother to rail about the supposed weakness of the Obama Administration on these issues, which historically have been in the wheelhouse of the Republican Party.

As President Barack Obama prepares his annual address to Congress, Americans are broadly dissatisfied with the state of the nation in several specific issue areas, with satisfaction down sharply in some cases since January 2008. However, three issues — the nation’s economy, the size and power of the federal government, and the moral and ethical climate in the country — fit both of these unwelcome criteria. …

On the positive end of things, Americans are the most satisfied with the overall quality of life in the U.S. as well as with two major aspects of U.S. national security: the nation’s security from terrorism and the nation’s military strength and preparedness. Satisfaction with security from terrorism is up 14 points since 2008, while satisfaction has held steady in the other two areas. …

Suddenly trailing in Florida after his landslide defeat in the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney is going all-in on an all-out negative campaign against the ascendant Newt Gingrich.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

A very big week on tap in presidential politics, and a more low-key but interesting week in California politics.

Following Newt Gingrich’s smashing South Carolina primary win on Saturday night, the four remaining Republican presidential candidates hold two debates this week in Florida, with the first tonight in Tampa.

And President Barack Obama delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday night. It’s strictly policy-oriented, of course, which in this election year means it is strictly political, a continuation and expansion of his themes of economic revival and modified populism.

In California politics, Governor Jerry Brown, in the wake of taking his State of the State address to the state, continues pushing his agenda of straightening out the chronic crisis of the present and moving the state forward into the future. That means convincing balky Democrats of the need to enact some more budget cuts sooner than later, and working behind the scenes to advance his big November initiative to raise temporary taxes, as well as further adjustments in the business plan for high-speed rail.

The friends of redevelopment will try to revive the program in the state legislature, where any bills to pass this session must move by the end of the month, but won’t find a receptive audience in the corner office of the Capitol.

A brand new Rasmussen poll featured on Fox News shows Gingrich now leading Mitt Romney in Florida, 41-32, with Rick Santorum third at 11% and Ron Paul a distant fourth with 8%. Less than two weeks ago, Romney, whose forces have spent at least $7 million there, had a 22-point lead in the Sunshine State.

This is yet another sign that Gingrich’s landslide 13-point win over putative frontrunner Romney in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary counts as an earthquake in presidential politics.

With 100% of the precincts counted, it’s Gingrich 40.4%, Romney 27.8%, Rick Santorum 17.0%, Ron Paul 13.0%, and the remainder scattered.

Gingrich trailed by 10 points five days before winning by 13 points, so this is a massive 23-point turnaround in less than a week.

Naturally, most of the news media is scrambling to try to explain this “shocking” development.

Which is not a shock to NWN readers.

Meanwhile, Romney agreed to appear in two debates this coming week in Florida, which his campaign had previously indicated he would not.

And he agreed to release two years of his tax returns, after previously insisting he would wait until April. That’s unlikely to end questioning of his highly lucrative business practices, of course.

Because Romney is only releasing two years of tax returns, which coincide with his running full-time for president. He has not released much information about the height of his career as a leveraged buyout artist — which he prefers to style as a venture capitalist, a very different thing though the Associated Press and much of the news media continues to erroneously describe him as he wishes — and that is at at the crux of the matter with regard to his controversial and enormously lucrative tenure as head of Bain Capital.

Romney declares any criticism of anything goes financialized capitalism to be socialism. An extremist stance which obviously can’t hold up.

Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, which will be followed by a three-day/five-state tour of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.

Note that three of the five states Obama will visit post-SOTU are Western states.

Obama won the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses on Saturday. No surprise, since he is unopposed, as always expected.

Obama lost the Silver State to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Previous Nevada Democratic presidential caucus winners include John Kerry, Al Gore, Jerry Brown twice, and Gary Hart.

Nevada’s Republicans get their turn in the neon lights of a wintry desert, oh, forget the writing thing … anyway, the Nevada Republican caucuses are on tap for February 4th, just a few days after the Florida primary

In very critical action elsewhere, decades long Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who on Saturday appeared headed for Oman, is now headed for the US following what now looks to be a very brief stop in Oman. Ostensibly for more medical treatment but perhaps for a more permanent exile.

Saudi Arabia hosted him for many weeks after an assassination attempt last year left a dozen of his closest associates dead and the dictator himself seriously wounded. But Riyadh declined to take him back, after curiously allowing him to return to Yemen.

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, shown here earlier this month arriving in the Arabian Sea to give the US Navy a second carrier strike group in the region, sailed through the Strait of Hormuz late Sunday in defiance of Iran’s warning against any American carriers operating in the Gulf.

Saleh departs with an immunity agreement in place and the US perhaps taking a blow to its sagging prestige in the Arab street.

Iran on Sunday called for more talks on its nuclear program, rather than sanctions.

Tehran has succeeded in getting Russia, China, and India to eschew further tough sanctions against its nuclear weapons program, which it insists is for energy only. But the sanctions already in place are hurting the Iranian economy.

But the European Union today formally agreed to a ban on Iranian oil, this morning adopting an embargo. All new contracts are canceled. Existing contracts can run only through June.

And USS Abraham Lincoln sailed with the rest of her aircraft carrier strike group through the Strait of Hormuz late on Sunday into the Arabian Gulf, defying Iranian warnings that no US aircraft carrier should return to the Gulf.

In Afghanistan, CIA Director David Petraeus met recently with the chief aide to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whose organization is an important operational ally of the Taliban in the fight against US, NATO, and Afghan government forces. Hekmatyar was a recipient of US aid in the Afghan war against the Soviets who then fought a civil war with his erstwhile mujahideen allies for power in Afghanistan, then fought against the Taliban when they arose to provide order. Now he fights with them against the US. Petraeus is trying to win Hekmatyar’s group to a peace process in Afghanistan.

On Friday, France not only suspended training of Afghan troops after four French soldiers were killed by an Afghan soldier under NATO training, it suspended all its activity in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon privately acknowledges attacks by Afghans on NATO troops have been rising. Ominously, it blames hostility toward coalition forces more than Taliban plotting.

Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.

The Muslim Brotherhood won 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.

What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?

Well, they are pretty much nowhere.

Which is why it is so dangerous to assume that chanting crowds dramatically urging democracy means that the crowds represent most of the country and that folks are just like us.

The Muslim Brotherhood says it does not want to form a coalition with the Salafists, however, and the Obama Administration is in talks with them. Still, the center of gravity of Egyptian politics has shifted sharply toward a religious-based politics, a huge development in a country which was once a key ally of Israel.

Here’s what Obama’s public schedule looks like this week.

On Monday, he will will welcome the six-time Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins to the White House to honor the team and their 2011 Stanley Cup victory.

On Tuesday evening, Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address at 6 PM Pacific. The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.

Following the State of the Union address, Obama will begin a five-state, three-day swing across the country. On Wednesday, Obama will begin his trip with an event in the Cedar Rapids area, followed by an event in the Phoenix area. He will then travel to Las Vegas where he will spend the night.

On Thursday, Obama will hold events in the Las Vegas area and the Denver area before traveling to Detroit that evening where he will spend the night.

On Friday, Obama will hold an event in the Detroit area before returning to the White House.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

At 10:40 AM Pacific, Obama welcomes the six-time Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins to the White House to honor the team and their 2011 Stanley Cup victory.

Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday night, and for his subsequent three-day/five-state tour of the Midwestern state of Iowa and Michigan and the Western states of Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.

Obama is monitoring a variety of geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, Iraq, Iran and Israel.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

But Romney is Romney, and Gingrich has skills, so between Romney’s radical capitalist contradictions coming to the fore — complete with his bizarre attacks on any criticism of Wall Street ways — and Gingrich’s ability to get back in debates, the undead has risen. No wonder that Romney is now trying to skip future debates. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

The first of two turnovers in the National Football Conference Championship Game by the San Francisco 49ers’ back-up punt returner let the New York Giants back in the game late in the fourth quarter. The second gave them the winning field goal in overtime. The 49ers also suffered from a very questionable non-call of a New York fumble that should have set up an easy field goal with two minutes left in regulation. Final score: New York 20, San Francisco 17.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

Newt Gingrich declared victory Saturday night in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. No candidate who has lost South Carolina has gone on to be the Republican presidential nominee.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, which will be followed by a three-day/five-state tour of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.

Obama on Saturday won the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses. No surprise, since he is unopposed, as always expected. But this was not, let’s say, the main story of the day in presidential politics.

What was?

Newt Gingrich’s landslide 13-point win over putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary.

With 100% of the precincts counted, it’s Gingrich 40.4%, Romney 27.8%, Rick Santorum 17.0%, Ron Paul 13.0%, and the remainder scattered.

Gingrich trailed by 10 points five days before winning by 13 points, so this is a massive 23-point turnaround in less than a week.

Naturally, most of the news media is scrambling today to try to explain this “shocking” development.

Which is not a shock to NWN readers.

I have a piece or two coming up on what’s next and why, and today is Championship Sunday in the NFL, so I’ll refer you to what’s been written already for now.

Meanwhile, Romney agreed to appear in two debates this coming week in Florida, which his campaign had previously indicated he would not.

And he agreed to release two years of his tax returns, after previously insisting he would wait until April. That’s unlikely to end questioning of his highly lucrative business practices, of course.

In very critical action elsewhere, decades long Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who yesterday appeared headed for Oman, is today headed for the US following what now looks to be a very brief stop in Oman. Ostensibly for more medical treatment but perhaps for a more permanent exile.

Saudi Arabia hosted him for many weeks after an assassination attempt last year left a dozen of his closest associates dead and the dictator himself seriously wounded. But Riyadh declined to take him back, after curiously allowing him to return to Yemen.

Saleh departs with an immunity agreement in place and the US perhaps taking a blow to its sagging prestige in the Arab street.

With tensions eased somewhat, Iran today called for more talks on its nuclear program, rather than sanctions.

Tehran has succeeded in getting Russia, China, and India to eschew further tough sanctions against its nuclear weapons program, which it insists is for energy only. But the sanctions already in place are hurting the Iranian economy.

Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

Here are the final few minutes of last weekend’s NFL play-off game between the San Francisco 49ers and the record-setting New Orleans Saints, in which the 49ers set a record themselves by coming from behind not once, but twice.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants this afternoon at Candlestick Park in the National Football Conference Championship Game.

Win this one, and the 49ers, who are slight favorites in Las Vegas, go to the Super Bowl for the first time in 17 years.

The annual NFC championship games began in 1971, after the merger between the National Football League and the American Football League, with the first one ever played in San Francisco’s old Kezar Stadium in the corner of Golden Gate Park. (The stadium is now best remembered as a very key setting in Dirty Harry.)

It was the last NFL game played in the old park, and the 49ers lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 17-10. I was there. It was quite a show.

Today’s game makes 13 NFC title game appearances for the 49ers in the four decades of the conference championship games. But this is the first for San Francisco since 1998, when they lost to Green Bay.

Today’s opponent, the New York Giants, was a .500 ball club on Christmas Eve. They had to beat the ever over-hyped New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys to barely make it into the play-offs. Then they ripped Green Bay last weekend, 37-20, catching the favored Packers looking incredibly flat and off, distracted by the death a few days earlier of their offensive coordinator’s son and probably looking past the Giants, whom they’d beaten in the regular season, to a showdown with the 49ers.

Naturally, the East Coast-based “national” sports media, especially ESPN, has spun up this 9-7 regular season outfit, which lost to the 49ers in the regular season — and was blown away by New Orleans, 49-24 — as one of the most awesome assemblages ever.

Governor Jerry Brown, who ultimately got into the Raiders, somewhat, when he was the mayor of Oakland, has notably not bet with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on the outcome of this game.

He’s just not the sportsman that Arnold Schwarzenegger is.

Of course, he does have a lot going on.

The two mayors have bet, however.

If the 49ers win, New York will re-name 49th Street as 49ers Street and Mayor Michael Bloomberg will send some of New York’s finest bagels to San Francisco.

If the Giants win, San Francisco will drape a cable car in New York Giants’ flags and Mayor Ed Lee will some of San Francisco’s finest sourdough bread to New York.

I can’t wait to see 49ers Street.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary Saturday night in a landslide, easily beating putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of the week.

7 PM PACIFIC UPDATE: GINGRICH TAKES SOUTH CAROLINA IN A LANDSLIDE OVER ROMNEY. Despite being out-spent by Mitt Romney better than 2 to 1 (I lump in super PAC totals with formal campaign totals, else the ratio would be far higher in Romney’s favor), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich swept to victory today in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary.

I’ve seen the exit polls throughout the day, and of course had the late polling as reported early this morning, but waited till most of the votes were counted to verify the trend.

With 95% of the votes counted, here are the results:

Newt Gingrich 41%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rick Santorum 17%
Ron Paul 13%

Romney had moved to a 10-point lead over Gingrich heading into the debate this past Monday night, just five days ago.

So this is a 24-point turnaround in Gingrich’s favor over Romney, in less than a week, despite being heavily outspent.

That is an historic blow-out, shattering the myth of Romney “inevitability.” And it happened with Santorum still in the race.

The ex-Pennsylvania senator, who narrowly won Iowa — a victory he was deprived of by a credulous media spun by Romney and an incompetent and frankly duplicitous state Republican party — says he will go on to the Florida primary, which is on January 31st. But he doesn’t have much money, or much hope. Does he want to try to play spoiler and help Romney?

Ron Paul, running out of gas though not out of money, thanks to his zealous cult-like backers, will not play in Florida. He’s looking to acquire more delegates in caucus states, where his enthusiasts can exercise out-size influence.

If it wasn’t obvious before, it is obvious now that Paul has no chance at winning the Republican nomination, which is now clearly a two-person race between Gingrich and Romney.

Romney, the supposedly inevitable frontrunner, has now lost two of the first three contests. Including the one contest, South Carolina, which has never been lost by a Republican presidential nominee.

More to follow, including the upcoming essay I mentioned this morning, referenced below.”Will Gingrich Blow It (Again)?”

4 PM PACIFIC UPDATE: GINGRICH PROJECTED EASY WINNER IN SOUTH CAROLINA. As soon as the polls closed in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, Fox News, ABC News, and NBC News all projected former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a big winner.

Mitt Romney finished second.

More to follow.

The polls opened Saturday morning in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. Mitt Romney has lost a big lead over the past week to a surging Newt Gingrich. No candidate who has lost the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WILL GINGRICH BLOW IT (AGAIN)?

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

Obama is prepping for the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, which will be followed by a three-day/five-state tour of Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan.

Note that three of the five states Obama will visit post-SOTU are Western states.

The Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses are today. I predict an Obama victory. He is unopposed, as also predicted.

Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Previous Nevada Democratic presidential caucus winners include John Kerry, Al Gore, Jerry Brown twice, and Gary Hart.

Nevada’s Republicans get their turn in the neon lights of a wintry desert, oh, forget the writing thing … anyway, the Nevada Republican caucuses are on tap for February 4th.

Today, of course, is the South Carolina primary. No one who has lost the South Carolina primary has ever gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination.

Late polling from Public Policy Polling into Friday night shows Newt Gingrich shrugging off his second ex-wife’s 11th hour claim of his asking for “an open marriage,” as well as days of concerted attacks from the Romney campaign, holding a nine-point lead over Mitt Romney.

That’s a rolling average over three days.

For Friday-only results, Gingrich has a whopping 14-point lead over Romney. Rick Santorum is running slightly ahead of Ron Paul for a distant third place.

Single night tracks, especially on a weekend night, are always at least somewhat problematic, of course.

Having issued that caveat, it seems that voters are not buying what Marianne Gingrich had to say, especially given its timing. And those who do may have already factored Gingrich’s famously caddish behavior of the past into their calculus.

It’s obvious that Gingrich’s stoning of CNN host John King’s decision to open the debate with such a personal gotcha question has redounded spectacularly well for the ex-House speaker.

A few people have asked what I mean by “stoning,” which is why in my HuffPost column during the week I described it as “wrecking.” In football, stoning refers to a tackle that devastates the player on the receiving end of the hit.

Late on Friday, former talk show host Michael Reagan, son of the late president, added his endorsement to Gingrich, who this week racked up nods from Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, Chuck Norris, and quite a few of the South Carolina supporters of the withdrawn Jon Huntsman, who himself issued a rather tepid endorsement of Romney when he withdrew from the race on Monday.

When Norris, one of the best karate black belts and action stars ever, endorsed Gingrich yesterday, Gingrich tweeted in response, saying he’s honored blah blah and “He will make an excellent Secretary of Attack.”

So much for the fun stuff.

Final results are finally available in Egypt’s complex, three-stage parliamentary elections. Islamist parties dominated, with just over 70% of the vote and representation in the new parliament.

The Muslim Brotherhood won a 47%, while the more radical Salafists are second with 24%.

What about the secular liberals who sparked much of the revolution itself, especially at fabled Tahrir Square?

Well, they are pretty much nowhere.

Which is why it is so dangerous to assume that chanting crowds dramatically urging democracy means that the crowds represent most of the country and that folks are just like us.

The Muslim Brotherhood says it does not want to form a coalition with the Salafists, however, and the Obama Administration is in talks with them. Still, the center of gravity of Egyptian politics has shifted sharply toward a religious-based politics, a huge development in a country which was once a key ally of Israel.

On Friday, France not only suspended training of Afghan troops after four French soldiers were killed by an Afghan soldier under NATO training, it suspended all its activity in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon privately acknowledges attacks by Afghans on NATO troops have been rising. Ominously, it blames hostility toward coalition forces more than Taliban plotting.

In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama stays on economic message, talking about his steps during the week to boost tourism, his moves to sidestep Congress, and giving a brief taste of the upcoming State of he Union address.

The US is trying to figure out how to finally get Ali Abdullah Saleh out of Yemen, the principal topic of Obama’s meeting yesterday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He wants to come here. Obama and company aren’t happy about that, as it would be a PR problem in the Arab world. But Saudi Arabia doesn’t want him, either, and his options are limited.

Today word filtered out that Saleh will go to Oman, where a residence is being prepared for him by the pro-Western sultan who has managed to make his Arab Spring protesters happy. I don’t know how happy they would be to have Saleh in their midst, so his ultimate destination is still vague, with the wily president reportedly still talking about leading the opposition in Yemen or living in the US.

The crises with Iran and Israel continue to percolate. But with the US and Israel postponing an impending major joint exercise till June, and the US Navy making its resolve to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, oil prices eased somewhat in late Friday trading.

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey held an intense round of closed door meetings on Thursday evening and all day Friday in Jaffa and Tel Aviv with Israeli military leaders. Afterwards, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that any decision on air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program is still quite a ways off.

Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

But Romney is Romney, and Gingrich has skills, so between Romney’s radical capitalist contradictions coming to the fore — complete with his bizarre attacks on any criticism of Wall Street ways — and Gingrich’s ability to get back in debates, the undead has risen. No wonder that Romney is now trying to skip future debates. … From my January 20th column.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.” … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $98.33 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $64 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $16 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

France today suspended training of Afghan troops after four French soldiers were killed by an Afghan soldier. The Pentagon privately acknowledges attacks by Afghans on NATO troops have been rising. Ominously, it blames hostility toward coalition forces more than Taliban plotting.

** QUICK HITS. Another conservative icon endorsed Newt Gingrich today. It’s Chuck Norris, one of the best karate black belts and action movie stars ever. Gingrich tweeted in response, saying he’s honored blah blah and “He will make an excellent Secretary of Attack.” … For his part, Mitt Romney sang “Happy Birthday” today to South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who just turned 40. She’s on the verge of having made an embarrassing endorsement move in her first foray into presidential politics. … Gingrich-hating Romney surrogate John Sununu, the ex-New Hampshire governor and Bush I White House chief of staff who resigned after his private trips on military aircraft were revealed, said today that the Romney campaign is settling in “for the long slog.” … Former NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw, who memorably tried to cut Governor Jerry Brown off during a 1992 presidential debate for repeating his 1-800 fundraising number, stopped by the Capitol today for a visit. I once sat on his daughter by mistake. Which is another story entirely.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD. Back from the dead. Again. Newt Gingrich. Amazing, isn’t it?

But Romney is Romney, and Gingrich has skills, so between Romney’s radical capitalist contradictions coming to the fore — complete with his bizarre attacks on any criticism of Wall Street ways — and Gingrich’s ability to get back in debates, the undead has risen. No wonder that Romney is now trying to skip future debates. …

From my new column.

** NEW SURVEY: HALF FEEL WORSE OFF THAN A YEAR AGO. A spate of improving economic news can serve to obscure a deeper reality.

Better is not the same as good.

A new Gallup Poll survey drives that point home, revealing that that half of Americans say they feel worse off financially than a year ago. Less than a third say they feel better off.

So President Barack Obama can hold off on popping the corks on those chilling champagne bottles, whose icy allure is given a greater frisson by the events of this Republican presidential race.

Things did not collapse into depression on his watch, as they threatened to do when he assumed the presidency. But he has not been able to deliver much in the way of a recovery for most Americans, excited as high-income Americans may be about their expanding good fortune.

Nearly half of U.S. adults, 49%, say they are worse off financially today than a year ago, while 29% say they are better off and 21% volunteer that their finances haven’t changed. The percentage rating their current finances negatively compared with a year ago is down from the high of 55% recorded twice in 2008, but is still among the highest in Gallup’s four decades of measuring this attitude. …

Americans are a bit more negative today than they were in January 1992 about how their current finances compare with a year ago, and they are a bit more optimistic their finances will improve over the next year. However, these differences produce an identical index score of +5, the lowest of the nine presidential election years since 1980. …

Newt Gingrich stoned CNN moderator John King in last night’s Republican presidential debate in South Carolina when the unfortunate journo opened the debate by asking him about his ex-wife’s allegation that he asked her for “an open marriage.” The audience gave Gingrich a standing ovation.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NEWTONIAN MOTION: UNDERLYING THE DECIDEDLY UNDEAD.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then met with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

The US is trying to figure out how to finally get Ali Abdullah Saleh out of Yemen. He wants to come here. Obama and company aren’t happy about that, as it would be a PR problem in the Arab world. But Saudi Arabia doesn’t want him, either, and his options are limited.

At 2:05 PM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

I thought that Newt Gingrich won the second South Carolina debate of the week last night on CNN in Charleston. It would have been hard for him to lose it after the way it opened.

CNN moderator John King, rather amazingly, opened the debate by asking Gingrich about allegations from his second wife Marianne Gingrich, just aired on ABC less than two days before the pivotal primary, that he had asked her for “an open marriage” over a decade ago when they were still married.

Gingrich proceeded to stone King, saying “No,” he did not want to answer his questions, then did, denying the specific charge in the process and declaring it “despicable” that a presidential debate would be opened in this manner. None of his opponents contradicted him.

The audience went wild for Gingrich, giving him a standing ovation.

Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Gingrich holding a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney, who had held a big lead at the beginning of this very eventful week.

This is consistent with, in fact better than, what I reported here Wednesday night with an Insider Advantage poll giving the ex-House speaker a smaller edge over the Romney.

It’s Gingrich 35%, Romney 29%, Rick Santorum 15%, and Ron Paul 15%.

A caveat. People are only now beginning to learn of his ex-wife’s dramatic and salacious charges against Gingrich. That could impact his now big lead among evangelicals.

Or it may not. Rick Perry sought to inoculate Gingrich as a reformed sinner yesterday morning when he pulled out of the race to endorse him. And Gingrich has previously acknowledged behavior he regrets, behavior which has been widely reported.

Events are driving President Barack Obama to song. Last night at a fundraiser at the legendary Apollo Theater in Harlem, he sang a few bars of Al Green’s soul classic “Let’s Stay Together.”

Romney, who was booed for giving yet another waffling answer about his financial dealings, has big problems of his own. Including yesterday’s revelation that he didn’t really finish first in Iowa, which I’ve been mentioning as a likelihood for quite a while now.

I’m not seeing any mea culpas from the media types who rushed to anoint Romney as the Iowa winner.

The crises with Iran and Israel continue to percolate. A top Iranian leader today declared that Israel must be “punished” for last week’s assassination of the head of Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment plant.

US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey is in the midst of closed door meetings in Tel Aviv with Israeli military leaders.

Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.

Military Crisis Zone Times: The Arabian Gulf is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown got good news this morning in the form of California’s unemployment declining for a fifth straight month.

It dropped to 11.1% in December, down from 11.3% the month before.

A year earlier, it was at 12.5%.

On a second day touring Southern California in the wake of yesterday morning’s State of the State address, Brown drew warm reactions from crowds of business executives in Orange County and civic types in San Diego.

But, while Orange County business leaders indicated they would back Brown’s initiative, some of those in San Diego were more circumspect.

Brown said yesterday he may delay the big water bond passed late in the Schwarzenegger Administration to provide a clearer shot for his revenue initiative.

Meanwhile, legislative Democrats not surprisingly reacted with some skepticism about Brown’s proposed budget cuts and legislative Republicans didn’t like the proposed tax hikes. I should have a function key for those stances.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** STATING THE STATE: JERRY BROWN GETS DISCIPLINED AND LAYS IT OUT. Straighten out the chronic crisis of the present and move the state forward into the future. That’s Jerry Brown’s mission as governor of California this time around, which he laid out rather clearly in his new State of the State address.

Brown has articulated everything he said in this speech before. But he hadn’t framed it up and put it all together in a coherent way, preferring too often to rely on his improvisational rhetorical skills. And he certainly hadn’t ventured out from the capital in the North in any sustained manner to push his program around the state, yet he followed this State of the State address by, in essence, bringing the State of the State to several communities across Southern California on Wednesday and Thursday. … From my January 19th feature.

** EXTREMISM IN DEFENSE OF IRONY: BY ROMNEY’S RADICAL DEFINITION HIS OWN CHIEF STRATEGIST IS “ANTI-FREE ENTERPRISE.”

Q. “Do you suggest that anyone who questions the policies and practices of Wall Street and financial institutions, anyone who has questions about the distribution of wealth and power in this country, is envious, is it about jealousy, or is it about fairness?”

A. “You know, I think it’s about envy. I think it’s about class warfare.”

Mitt Romney on The Today Show after his New Hampshire primary victory, reacting to criticism of his record as head of the unfortunately named Bain Capitol.

Shocked by being under fire from fellow Republicans for his work as a corporate takeover specialist, Romney and his allies have reacted with a semi-controlled hysteria, deeming any criticism of the era’s anything-goes financialized capitalism the functional equivalent of socialism. … From my January 15th essay.

** BOMBING BAIN: HOW DOES THE POLITICS OF WALL STREET GREED PLAY IN THE G.O.P.? … From my January 10th column.

** JERRY BROWN 2.0 AT 1. … From my January 7th essay.

** IOWA THEN AND NOW. … From my December 30th essay.

** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. … From my December 24th essay.

** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.

** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.