Iran’s testing of long-range missiles and a threat to close access to the Persian Gulf (known by Gulf Arabs and the U.S. Navy as the Arabian Gulf) have ratcheted up tensions with the West. The Islamic Republic is completing 10 days of naval exercises aimed at showcasing its military capabilities, which its leaders say give it control over the Strait of Hormuz.
** OBAMA TODAY – MONDAY. President Barack Obama is in Hawaii and en route to Washington
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in Kailua, where he is staying with his family.
Obama has no scheduled public events.
He and First Lady Michelle Obama and daughters Malia and Sasha wrap up their Christmas and New Year’s vacation today and return to Washington on Air Force One.
The Obamas kicked off the new year yesterday with a visit to their past.
Following his workout at Marine Corps Base Hawaii, Obama and his family went to the Punchbowl, site of the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific, to visit the grave of his World War II veteran grandfather, Stanley Dunham.
Then they visited the East-West Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, featuring an exhibit of the president’s late mother’s anthropological work, entitled “Through Her Eyes: Ann Dunham’s Field Work in Indonesia.” Dr. Ann Dunham did extensive work for the Ford Foundation and the Asian Development Bank in Indonesia.
The Obamas were joined at the exhibit by the president’s sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, and her family.
After a private lunch, the Obamas spent the afternoon at the beach at Marine Corps Base Hawaii.
Meanwhile, on this, the biggest day of the year in college football — with six major bowl games taking place, including the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl with Pacific 12 Conference representatives Oregon and Stanford — the preposterously early Iowa Republican presidential race is about to wrap up.
In Iowa today it is the war of all against all. Well, not quite, but pretty much. The candidates are all taking shots at one another, with a suddenly ascending Rick Santorum now coming in for his share of the fun.
Ron Paul, who went back to Texas after trying to fend off press questions last week about his views, is back in the state as well.
Iran continued playing into the sense of crisis today by going ahead with more missile tests, both long-range and medium-range.
Iran is wrapping up its planned 10-day series of naval exercises in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important choke point for oil shipments, which Iran threatens to shut down if new sanctions continue to be imposed against its nuclear weapons program.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak added to the brinksmanship, saying that sanctions should be strengthened even further.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
War Zone Times: Iraq is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – MONDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is working on his new state budget, the upcoming State of the State address, and various political plans for 2012, including his big revenue initiative to couple with additional cuts in order to bring the budget into balance.
Happy 2012! Fireworks burst in spectacular fashion over London, host of the 2012 Olympic Games, as Big Ben chimes in the new year and selections from Britain’s globe-spanning popular music play. Usually Moscow wins the fireworks award, but not this time.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Hawaii.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in Kailua, where he is staying with his family.
Obama has no scheduled public events.
He is vacationing in his home state with First Lady Michelle Obama and daughters Malia and Sasha through January 1st.
The release of the Des Moines Register Poll on New Year’s Eve reveals a rather volatile and still unsettled situation in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, which are coming up on January 3rd.
Over 40% of respondents say they have not made up their minds. And the ground was shifting while the poll was in the field.
The overall results shows a statistical tie between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, with Romney at 24% and Paul at 22%. Rick Santorum is in third with 15%, followed by Newt Gingrich, hammered by millions in attack ads, with 12%.
Half the TV ads that aired in December in Iowa were attacks on Gingrich, most of them from an “independent” committee run by Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign aides which has not disclosed where the money has come from.
Romney is, ironically, the only stable element here. He’s gotten a mostly free ride from opponents and the media, and others have gone up and down and up again, but he is where he’s been all along. Stalled. But if his opponents splinter the non-Romney vote, he is viable.
While Romney is consistent, everything else is inconsistent. In addition to the very high proportion of unsure voters, the poll itself looks different as it progresses through its four-day survey.
Taking only the last two days, Paul drops back into third and Santorum moves up alongside Romney, with the ex-Massachusetts governor at his usual 24% and the ex-Pennsylvania senator at 21%.
Romney didn’t have much to say today, but his rivals did.
Gingrich ripped him, saying that he had been “Romney-boated.”
Paul, who is oddly back in Texas, emerged for some Sunday chat show activity, which quickly turned contentious as he tried to defend his opposition to civil rights laws, sexual harassment laws, lack of concern over the Iranian nuclear weapons program, and other aspects of his peculiar program.
Santorum, suddenly riding high, said for his part that he would bomb Iran if the Tehran regime doesn’t allow inspectors to range throughout the country.
And so it goes.
Iran played into the sense of crisis today by going ahead, contrary to statements yesterday, with a long-range missile test.
Which raises questions of who is on first in Tehran, not to mention who is in charge.
In Syria, even with Arab League monitors in the country for a week, attacks on civilian demonstrators continue, raising criticisms of the monitor program as a useless facade.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
War Zone Times: Iraq is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is working on his 2012 fiscal, political, and rhetorical plans.
In his New Year’s weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama tells the American people that, by joining together, we can move past the tough debates and help to create jobs and grow the economy in the new year.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Hawaii.
He has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in Kailua, where he is staying with his family.
Obama has no scheduled public events.
He is vacationing in his home state with First Lady Michelle Obama and daughters Malia and Sasha through January 1st.
Friday was a chaotic day in the Republican presidential race.
Today promises more of the same, with all of the candidates except Ron Paul campaigning in Iowa on New Year’s Eve.
The Des Moines Register Poll, which has a very good track record, will be released at 5 PM Pacific.
All the candidates are in Iowa today, except for a supposedly surging Ron Paul, who has gone home to Texas.
Paul is turning turtle in the face of ongoing questions about his publishing, promoting, and profiting from racist statements and bizarre conspiracy theories. And with Iran threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, his tactics with regard to the Islamic republic and its nuclear weapons program are being slammed by fellow Republicans as appeasement. That’s the polite version.
After walking out of a CNN interview, Paul had already taken to consistently dodging the press. He will, however, appear on a couple of Sunday chat shows.
Mitt Romney and minions in media and elsewhere are again trying to create the impression that he’s got it locked up. (My experience is that’s a mistake.)
Romney’s sons got into hot water yesterday when Matt Romney, asked why his father refuses to release any tax returns, said he’d heard it said that that might happen after Obama releases his birth certificate and grades.
Which prompted brother Tagg Romney, a friend and business associate of Meg Whitman’s troubled son Griff Harsh V, to interject that it hadn’t been their father who had said that.
Newt Gingrich teared up yesterday when he explained his interest in brain science as a consequence of his mother’s mind spiraling away with age, which Romney boosters mock as his “Hillary moment.” Recall her crying as she was about to lose again in New Hampshire, which she then won.
Rick Santorum, who’s suddenly moved up in Iowa after many months of seemingly fruitless campaigning, is doing the smart thing of just campaigning energetically.
Virginia’s attorney general today announced that his state’s exclusion of all but Romney and Paul from the Commonwealth’s key Super Tuesday primary is wrong and he is moving to correct the situation with emergency legislation, which the governor also says he supports.
In our new world chaos, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh now says he doesn’t want to come to the US after all. Which is fortunate, since the Obama Administration doesn’t want him here. Instead he says he’ll remain in Yemen — what happened to his supposed need for the best medical treatment — and work with successors to stabilize the country.
Just what protesters don’t want. Saleh should have stayed in Saudi Arabia.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called Egyptian leaders yesterday and today to urge them to back away from their raids on human rights groups, including several US-based NGOs.
We’ll see how that goes.
Iranian saber rattling about closing the Strait of Hormuz is continuing on state television for yet another day, and Iranian air and naval forces continue their exercises in and around the vital choke point for the world’s oil supply.
But Iran announced today that is delaying a planned long-range missile test, and called for renewed talks on its nuclear weapons program.
Despite all the threatening activity, and the obvious threat that Iran poses, oil markets are mostly stable, as you can see from the Energy Market Watch below.
Which I like to think of a vote of conference in the U.S. Navy.
But those markets are based on conventional wisdom as much as insight, and can be stampeded in an instant by decisions made elsewhere.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
War Zone Times: Iraq is eleven hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is twelve and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
NASA scientists will be ringing in the New Year monitoring two spacecraft about to orbit the moon. The mission, run out of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, is attempting to map the lunar surface, and help us understand how planets are formed.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is working on his 2012 fiscal, political, and rhetorical plans.
Brown has raised $1.2 million for his proposed tax initiative for the November 2012 ballot in the past two weeks.
He also has millions left over from his 2010 landslide win over billionaire Meg Whitman’s biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, but I believe he will want to keep that in his re-election kitty.
Am I saying that I think he intends to run for re-election?
What do you think?
** IOWA THEN AND NOW. The chaotic jumble of holding the Iowa presidential caucuses on January 3rd is now fully apparent. With rampant confusion about who will actually participate, and yoyo-ing swings in support — all playing out against a bizarre backdrop of the holidays, millions in disembodied attack ads, and Barack Obama pondering a US-Iran showdown in the Strait of Hormuz — the folly of the accelerated nomination calendar is clear.
It didn’t used to be this way.
When I was Senator Gary Hart’s political director for the first-in-the-nation contest, the Iowa presidential caucuses were held on February 20th, 1984. There was plenty of time for those who voted in the caucuses to consider the candidates and in a great many cases to actually meet them.
Unlike the situation this year, when most have campaigned from TV studios, barely deigning to sweep through Iowa behind carefully controlled facades, the candidates then spent ample time in the state, with voters able to get a measure of them.
Then there were campaign spending limits which were largely adhered to. I say “largely” because campaigns found ways to scrimp and save by renting cars across the state line, a minor dodge which seems quite quaint in today’s post-Citizens United decision milieu of anything goes spending.
And there were no shadowy “independent” campaign groups spending megabucks on TV ads which those in the know understand are actually very much part of the campaign, but fool most voters, such as the Mitt Romney super PAC “Restore Our Future”run by Romney’s aides from his first presidential campaign and funded by Romney backers at his old leveraged buyout firm Bain Capital.
Let’s just say things have not improved.
In January 1984, I was fortunate enough to be on hand for Steve Jobs’s first public unveiling of the Macintosh at Apple’s annual meeting in Silicon Valley, just four weeks before Iowa, as guest of Silicon Valley’s marketing/PR guru Regis McKenna, a big Hart backer with whom I later worked.
From there, I went to the airport and flew to Des Moines for the four-week stretch run of Hart’s Iowa campaign, coming on as political director, joining a state coordinator, Keith Glaser, who had moved over from a choice spot on the Senate staff when the Iowa campaign imploded a few months earlier to inherit what looked like a moribund booby prize. We were in fifth place. … From my December 30th essay.
** IT’S A MAD, MAD, MAD CAST IN THE GOP’S RACE TO CASA BLANCA. The Republican presidential race was a reality TV show. But now that the primaries and caucuses are coming right up, it’s a road picture. Here’s how each candidate, a distinct type, is doing right now.
The Legend in His Own Mind
There aren’t many historical figures that the ostentatiously intellectual Dr. Newton Leroy Gingrich hasn’t compared himself with lately, and always quite favorably. He even declared himself the nominee.
But he should have paid a little more attention to sports than that National Merit Scholarship, especially in a process that doesn’t value intellectual capability all that highly. Because there really aren’t many games that are over before half-time. … From my December 24th essay.
** KEYSTONE PIPELINE: SMALL PART OF A VERY BIG PICTURE. … From my December 21st essay.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION: THE BIG TALK CAMPAIGN. … From my December 17th column.
** JERRY BROWN PULLS A TRIGGER, INVOKES ROME, AND FOCUSES ON CLIMATE AND INITIATIVES. … From my December 14th feature.
** TOP DOG IN THE BIG DES MOINES DOGPILE? IT’S NEWT! … From my December 11th column.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION: ACTION BEGETS FLAWED REACTION. … From my December 10th column.
** NEWTONIAN MOTION: IN IOWA, A LOT CAN HAPPEN IN FOUR WEEKS. … From my December 6th column.
** JERRY BROWN AND THE 2012 INITIATIVE WARS. … From my December 3rd feature.
** ALTERNEWT: GINGRICH “ALTERNATE HISTORY” NOVELS REVEAL MUCH ON PRESENT POLITICS. … From my December 1st essay.
** A SUBLIME AND RIDICULOUS DAY: MARS MISSION AND AFPAK DEBACLE. … From my November 28th essay.
** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The New Year comes to Oz! Australia was one of the first countries to celebrate the arrival of 2012 with a spectacular fireworks display centered around Sydney’s harbor, its famous bridge, and the iconic Opera House.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab awakening underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $98.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity, and down about $15 from the price at the time of the Osama bin Laden raid.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Read 
| Comments (31) |
Good New Year Weekend address by President Obama.
Great news video of the explorer spacecraft.
Great New Year firework display in Australia.
Nice piece on Huffpost. By the way, looks like Newt is toast.
Barack ends the year with a great message for a better New Year!!!
He will win!
Mission control in California, I love it!
Jonas Blane says:
December 31, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Great news video of the explorer spacecraft.
The Ozzies have an INCREDIBLE FIREWORKS SHOW!
Jonas Blane says:
December 31, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Great New Year firework display in Australia.
What a dick.
BB”Romney’s sons got into hot water yesterday when Matt Romney, asked why his father refuses to release any tax returns, said he’d heard it said that that might happen after Obama releases his birth certificate and grades.
Which prompted brother Tagg Romney, a friend and business associate of Meg Whitman’s troubled son Griff Harsh V, to interject that it hadn’t been their father who had said that.
[...] Link: New West Notes » New Year's Weekend Edition [...]
Happy new year to American friends.
Hey now that is a fireworks show, forget about politics I’ma watch that again.
Great fireworks from London, can’t wait till OLYMPICS, Happy New Year!!!
Happy New Year with great London firework show!
London fireworks are better than Moscow this New Year.
Good bad newsnews video on Iran.
That’s not a happy new year.
Iran threatens your famous Navy.
What new video today?
Rommey in Iowa, the Iran crisis, and Mission Impossible.
Directly, yes.
>sergei says:
January 3, 2012 at 7:42 am (Edit)
Iran threatens your famous Navy.
No.
>Jonas Blane says:
January 2, 2012 at 11:43 am (Edit)
Good bad newsnews video on Iran.
Capitol Boy says:
January 2, 2012 at 12:47 pm (Edit)
That’s not a happy new year.
And that is saying a very great deal!
>sergei says:
January 2, 2012 at 5:30 am (Edit)
London fireworks are better than Moscow this New Year.
Yep.
>Capitol Boy says:
December 31, 2011 at 5:55 pm (Edit)
What a dick.
BB”Romney’s sons got into hot water yesterday when Matt Romney, asked why his father refuses to release any tax returns, said he’d heard it said that that might happen after Obama releases his birth certificate and grades.
Which prompted brother Tagg Romney, a friend and business associate of Meg Whitman’s troubled son Griff Harsh V, to interject that it hadn’t been their father who had said that.
Deep space missions are run from California.
>Capitol Boy says:
December 31, 2011 at 5:52 pm (Edit)
Mission control in California, I love it!
Jonas Blane says:
December 31, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Great news video of the explorer spacecraft.
Thanks, Pat.
One of your many predictions of doom for Gingrich will undoubtedly prove to be correct.
>Pat Skipper says:
December 31, 2011 at 5:30 pm (Edit)
Nice piece on Huffpost. By the way, looks like Newt is toast.
They put on a great show in Oz.
>Jonas Blane says:
December 31, 2011 at 1:30 pm (Edit)
Great New Year firework display in Australia.
Why is Ron Paul in such good health at his age?He has a strong Constitution.
Incidentally, NWN passed 118,000 comments sometime over the holidays.
Thankfulness to my father who informed me on the topic of this weblog, this web site is truly awesome.
[...] Mono', 'FreeMono', 'Courier new', 'Courier', monospace; cursor:pointer; padding-right:5px;} New West Notes jQuery.noConflict(); function openKswppwWindow() { if(typeof hide_popup == 'function') { [...]
Its like you learn my thoughts! You seem to grasp a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I believe that you can do with some % to power the message house a bit, however instead of that, this is great blog. An excellent read. I will definitely be back.