While the U.S. House of Representatives today voted down legislation granting President Obama authority to extend the mission in Libya for a year, and also voted down a bill to cut off funding for the mission, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen insisted that things are on track.
** QUICK HITS. So how is Texas dealing with the worst state budget crisis in the country? It’s kicking the can down the road. I’ll get into this some more. Texas Governor Rick Perry, a darling of the far right, is fixing to run for president. … Meanwhile, Texan Karl Rove’s conservative PAC GPS Crossroads is launching a $20 million anti-Obama cable ad buy around the country, blasting him on the economy and fiscal management. The PAC keeps its funding sources secret, but much of it is believed to come from Texas. … Nothing new to report on California’s chronic budget crisis, but termed-out state Senate Minority Leader Bob Dutton’s plan to try to stay in public office by running for the Assembly is spurring a brewing leadership fight between ultra-conservative GOP caucus chairman Bob Huff (the redevelopment agencies’ champion) and ultra-conservative freshman Joel Anderson (champion of home schooling). … Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger met yesterday with the staff of his UN-affiliated R20 climate change/renewable energy organization at its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. The organization launched last November at Schwarzenegger’s final Governors’ Global Climate Summit at UC Davis.
** NEW POLL: LIBYAN WAR NOW UNPOPULAR. Three months after the UN sanctioned the Libyan War to protect civilians and rebels and push back against longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi, support for the effort in the US has moved from positive to negative.
A new Gallup Poll shows that a 47-37 edge in favor in March has shifted to 39-46 opposed in June.
The good news for the Obama Administration is that this is a low-intensity conflict from an American standpoint, with the US having shifted to a backseat role after the first week-and-a-half of hostilities. So people are not terribly upset about it, unless they are in Congress or certain political groups.
Which is, paradoxically, one of the reasons why the war is now unpopular. Without the oomph of what The Economist calls “the American cavalry,” the Europeans who wanted the war are struggling to mount an effective effort.
But the UN aims have been achieved, despite the big picture impasse. Which is nonetheless slowly turning against Gaddafi.
Ironically, it may be sheer partisan politics that drives this polling result.
Democrats favor the war, contrary to what you will see from some of my colleagues elsewhere. Independents have moved somewhat against, due to the fact that Gaddafi is still around and it’s still going on.
It’s the big Republican shift against the Libyan War, driven by Republican politicians using it to attack Obama, that accounts for the turnaround.
Americans are more likely to say they disapprove than approve of the U.S. military action in Libya. That represents a shift from three months ago, just after the mission began, when approval exceeded disapproval. …
Democrats are the only political group to show more support for than opposition to the U.S. involvement. Independents are the most likely to show opposition, with a majority disapproving.
Republicans’ opinions have changed the most since March, moving to 39% approval from 57%. This likely reflects increased criticism of the mission’s legality and cost from some Republican congressional leaders and presidential candidates. Independents’ views have become slightly more negative over the last three months, while Democrats’ opinions have been largely stable. …
Democrats are the only political group to show more support for than opposition to the U.S. involvement. Independents are the most likely to show opposition, with a majority disapproving.
Republicans’ opinions have changed the most since March, moving to 39% approval from 57%. This likely reflects increased criticism of the mission’s legality and cost from some Republican congressional leaders and presidential candidates. Independents’ views have become slightly more negative over the last three months, while Democrats’ opinions have been largely stable. …
** NEW POLL: WHO YOU GONNA CALL? THE MILITARY. Gallup’s annual poll on confidence in American institutions is out, and unless you wear or once wore the uniform may not inspire too much personal satisfaction. Once again the US military is the institution which by far inspires the most confidence.
Confidence levels for other institutions are at or near historic lows, with Congress at the very bottom.
The military has roughly three times the standing of the news media, and slightly more than that margin in comparison to big business and organized labor.
The Supreme Court and the presidency fare better than the news media, but still rank far below the military. Which is one very big reason why Barack Obama pays perhaps more deference to the opinions of military brass than he ought to.
It’s not a conspiracy, unless you consider popular opinion to be a conspiracy.
Americans continue to express greater confidence in the military than in 15 other national institutions, with 78% saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in it. In addition to the military, a majority of Americans express high esteem for small business and the police. Congress ranks last among these institutions, behind big business and health maintenance organizations. …
Gallup has asked Americans to say how much confidence they have in a variety of U.S. institutions a total of 35 times since 1973, including annual updates since 1993. This year’s results are based on a June 9-12 Gallup poll.
Little has changed in Americans’ confidence in institutions over the past year. The only notable difference was a significant increase in Americans’ confidence in television news, from 22% to 27%. There was also a slight, but not statistically meaningful, increase in confidence in newspapers (from 25% to 28%). Confidence in the police is down 3 percentage points, a change that is also within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
In a year in which labor unions have been in the news for public employee union battles with state governments over benefits and bargaining rights, Americans’ confidence in organized labor did not change (20% in 2010 vs. 21% in 2011).
Confidence in Military Bucks Larger Trend in Declining Confidence
From a broader perspective, confidence in most of the institutions this year is below the historical average for each. These depressed figures likely reflect Americans’ current dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the country, in large part due to the state of the economy. This year’s ratings of banks, Congress, and the presidency are the most below their historical average.
The most notable exception to the general pattern of lower confidence is for the military, whose 78% reading this year is 11 points higher than its historical average. Americans tend to express much greater confidence in the military when the U.S. is actively engaged in military operations, as in an 85% rating in Feb.-March 1991 just after the first Persian Gulf War ended and ratings between 69% and 82% over the last decade coinciding with U.S. military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The military has been the top ranked institution each year since 1998 and from 1989 to 1996. In 1997, when small business was added to the survey for the first time, it edged out the military by 63% to 60%.
The church or organized religion was the top institution in the eight measurements conducted from 1973 through 1985. Confidence in the church declined in 1986, with the military surpassing it in confidence that year for the first time. Confidence in the church has yet to return to its pre-1986 levels.
Last night at a Manhattan fundraiser, President Barack Obama said that same sex couples deserve the same rights as everyone else, walking right up to the edge of endorsing same sex marriage.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Pennsylvania and Washington.
Obama arrived in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania shortly after midnight, flying in on Air Force One following his New York City evening fundraisers.
Obama has received his daily intelligence briefing.
This morning he toured Carnegie Mellon University’s National Robotics Engineering Center (NREC).
He then delivered remarks on the need to focus on cross-cutting technologies to enhance manufacturing competitiveness at the Carnegie Mellon site.
At 9:45 AM Pacific, Obama departs Pittsburgh on Air Force One en route Andrews Air Force Base (also known as Joint Base Andrews). If you wonder why I keep switching between the two names lately, it’s because they are interchangeable and the White House staff hasn’t quite decided which one they intend to use.
At 10:40 AM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 10:55 AM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
Two Republican leaders, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, yesterday left the ongoing Joe Biden-led negotiations on the federal deficit and debt ceiling. Why? Because they say they are against any tax hikes. Which in their minds includes ending supposedly temporary tax breaks for the rich.
But Cantor’s leader, House Speaker and noted golfer John Boehner, met privately at the White House the night before with Obama.
Oil prices are still down to almost $90 per barrel, which is good for the economy, to the extent that they translate into lower retail energy prices, which for the most part they have not since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Crude oil has dropped 20% since bin Laden’s death. But gasoline prices are down only 7.5%, with most of that only recently.
Obama spurred a big release of strategic oil reserves into the market to make up for strapped supply with Libya largely offline for the foreseeable future.
All the more reason for the situation with Moammar Gaddafi to be resolved, and stark evidence of how disarray in even a mid-level oil producer can sharply impact the global economy.
Today the House of Representatives takes up measures on the Libyan War, and there may be some embarrassment for Obama there.
Will the House provide its imprimatur for the US mission in Libya? Not a chance, with left-liberal Democrats upset and right-wing Republicans looking for a way to slap the president.
Will they pass a bill to cut funding for the Libyan mission? That’s the real question.
Of course, even if they do, they have to get the Senate to go along with them, and I’m sure that will not happen.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who backs the Libyan mission, says he has the votes to pass a bill by Senators John Kerry and John McCain authorizing US involvement in Libya for another year.
While Obama’s Afghan draw-down speech, which seriously pleased few, continues to reverberate, focus is shifting to Pakistan.
But before it does, let’s not let the fact that a quarter of the Afghan Parliament has been declared illegitimate, the result of elections fraud, by President Hamid Karzai’s elections commission. They will have to give up their seats. Nation building isn’t going so well there, no matter who is telling the truth.
Top Obama Administration geopolitical officials testified yesterday before Congress about shifts in the Afghan War, but questions increasingly turned to Pakistan.
On Pakistan, US intelligence sources are saying that the take from the mobile phone of Osama bin Laden’s courier indicates that major elements of Pakistan’s ISI intelligence service were aiding the Al Qaeda leader. Who of course was in hiding less than a mile from Pakistan’s equivalent of West Point.
The bin Laden courier, who ironically led US agents to the Al Qaeda leader’s lair, was his close confidant and operative, bringing his missives to the rest of the organization around the world. through Internet cafes. His mobile phone reveals that he worked closely with a jihadist group fostered and supported by the ISI.
Obama is also monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab awakening, AfPak, and Iraq.
War Zone Times: Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time, Iraq and Yemen are ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is continuing work on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
While Brown insisted in a speech to builders in San Francisco yesterday that he is still pushing his grand budget compromise, Democratic and Republican legislators took shots at each other, and at Brown. Since they’re no longer getting paid, they have plenty to be cranky about.
But Brown is still talking with individual Republican legislators, even as Republican Senate leaders claim to be for his special election, just not for tax extensions. Which would mean they are tax hikes, a very different matter, as they know.
** OBAMA’S BIG REPUBLICAN PROBLEM (IT’S NOT WHAT YOU THINK). Barack Obama has plenty of problems with the Republican Party. But his biggest problem is the least obvious of them: the Republicans are turning anti-war. And as they do so, any popular base of support for the Afghan War disappears.
While the Republicans’ long-entrenched hawk faction favors a less aggressive withdrawal from Afghanistan than Obama outlined in his Wednesday night address, or none at all, growing numbers of Republicans in Congress, many new Tea Party types, want the war to simply end. And because they are backed up by polling numbers showing a sharp decline in support for the war among Republican voters, the party’s presidential candidates have responded with much less resolute rhetoric than in the past. …
It’s one of the great ironies of contemporary politics that this Republican evaporation should be taking place. After all, it’s the Republicans, and especially their then-dominant neoconservative faction, that steered America into Iraq — one of the great non sequitur moves in history — in the wake of 9/11. And it’s the Republicans who made the test of patriotism, and international friendship, whether “you’re for us or against us.”
That’s why it was necessary for national Democrats, i.e., those who intend to actually win elections by appealing to enough voters to do so, to make Afghanistan the good war and Iraq the bad war. But Obama, who correctly identified Iraq as a “stupid war,” thus transcending notions of “good” or “bad,” in 2002, took the whole thing way too far in late 2009 when he fatefully decided to do a big “surge” of his own in Afghanistan. … From my June 23rd column.
** JERRY BROWN’S BIG BUDGET VETO, AND WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE. The dust is still settling in the wake of Governor Jerry Brown’s veto of the California state budget. That budget, designed by Democratic legislative leaders and their backers, had good things in it, and also some highly questionable elements, i.e., gimmicks, some of which may be replaceable in another iteration.
Can Brown get his better budget, the sensible compromise mostly blocked by Republican intransigence? That question probably becomes moot on June 30th. Why? It’s simple enough. That’s the point at which his proposed tax extensions become tax increases. …
After months of negotiations, Brown has come up against the same intractable dynamics that bedeviled Arnold Schwarzenegger in his last years as governor. … From my June 17th column.
** WEINERGATE’S LASTING IMPACT: THE FIRST BIG SOCIAL MEDIA POLITICAL SEX SCANDAL. … From my June 7th column.
** JERRY BROWN’S NEW PROBLEM. … From my June 3rd column.
** HARSH REALITIES IMPINGE ON OBAMA’S EMERGING DOCTRINE. … From my June 1st essay.
** JERRY BROWN RETURNS (AGAIN!) ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO STEALTH MODE. … From my May 25th feature.
** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. … From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $91 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $57 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Crude oil is down 20% since the death of Osama bin Laden. But gasoline is only down 7.5%.
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| Comments (33) |
Good video of President Obama on gay rights.
Barack is getting there. I think it’s great tho he has to be careful about offending swing staters…
Good news video on Obama appointees testifying to Congress on Afghanitan and Pakistan.
Pakistan is the real problem now.
C’mon, JB, do events!! It’s boring almost…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is continuing work on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Where’s the outrage??
BB:Crude oil has dropped 20% since bin Laden’s death. But gasoline prices are down only 7.5%, with most of that only recently.
Great new HuffPost front page column on Obama and Afghanistan.
Could be…
Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:39 am
Pakistan is the real problem now.
My gas price hasn’t dropped much at all.
Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:41 am
Where’s the outrage??
BB:Crude oil has dropped 20% since bin Laden’s death. But gasoline prices are down only 7.5%, with most of that only recently.
It’s a bad situation.
Thanks, I appreciate it.
> Requiem says:
June 24, 2011 at 10:56 am (Edit)
Great new HuffPost front page column on Obama and Afghanistan.
We’ve gotten accustomed to adjusting to dashed expectations …
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:41 am (Edit)
Where’s the outrage??
BB:Crude oil has dropped 20% since bin Laden’s death. But gasoline prices are down only 7.5%, with most of that only recently.
Almost?
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:40 am (Edit)
C’mon, JB, do events!! It’s boring almost…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is continuing work on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Until it’s somewhere else.
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:39 am (Edit)
Pakistan is the real problem now.
More video today?
Yes.
I hope that Rasmussen dude is right and NATO have their act together…
This is like whack a mole.
Bill Bradley says:
June 24, 2011 at 11:28 am
Until it’s somewhere else.
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:39 am (Edit)
Pakistan is the real problem now.
Cool, I hope it’s not real long…
Bill Bradley says:
June 24, 2011 at 11:26 am
Thanks, I appreciate it.
> Requiem says:
June 24, 2011 at 10:56 am (Edit)
Great new HuffPost front page column on Obama and Afghanistan.
Heh.
Bill Bradley says:
June 24, 2011 at 11:27 am
Almost?
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:40 am (Edit)
C’mon, JB, do events!! It’s boring almost…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is continuing work on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Like the Huffpost piece. It’s not surprising that the GOP is backing off their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. After all, they didn’t support the very minor skirmishes of Bill Clinton in Haiti or Kosovo. They only like war when they occupy the President’s office. When they’re out of it, they like politics more.
Good news video on the Libya War.
Thanks.
This time Republican leaders are responding to Republican voters, not vice versa, on Afghanistan.
They are definitely playing partisan games on Libya, however. But McCain is succeeding in blocking that.
> Pat Skipper says:
June 24, 2011 at 3:28 pm (Edit)
Like the Huffpost piece. It’s not surprising that the GOP is backing off their wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. After all, they didn’t support the very minor skirmishes of Bill Clinton in Haiti or Kosovo. They only like war when they occupy the President’s office. When they’re out of it, they like politics more.
Sadly, indeed.
> Jack Aubrey says:
June 24, 2011 at 2:14 pm (Edit)
Heh.
Bill Bradley says:
June 24, 2011 at 11:27 am
Almost?
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:40 am (Edit)
C’mon, JB, do events!! It’s boring almost…
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown is continuing work on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
It’s not.
> Jack Aubrey says:
June 24, 2011 at 2:13 pm (Edit)
Cool, I hope it’s not real long…
Bill Bradley says:
June 24, 2011 at 11:26 am
Thanks, I appreciate it.
> Requiem says:
June 24, 2011 at 10:56 am (Edit)
Great new HuffPost front page column on Obama and Afghanistan.
They don’t but it should still work out.
> Jack Aubrey says:
June 24, 2011 at 2:11 pm (Edit)
I hope that Rasmussen dude is right and NATO have their act together…
Will the wingnuts’ FINALLY quit talking about Texas??!!
QUICK HITS. So how is Texas dealing with the worst state budget crisis in the country? It’s kicking the can down the road. I’ll get into this some more. Texas Governor Rick Perry, a darling of the far right, is fixing to run for president. …
Corrupt nut vs. nutty nut!!!
… Nothing new to report on California’s chronic budget crisis, but termed-out state Senate Minority Leader Bob Dutton’s plan to try to stay in public office by running for the Assembly is spurring a brewing leadership fight between ultra-conservative GOP caucus chairman Bob Huff (the redevelopment agencies’ champion) and ultra-conservative freshman Joel Anderson (champion of home schooling). …
Your Congress cries about your little war in Iraq where you will win and goes along with your big war in Afghanistan where you will lose.
What new video today?
Lots.
Another example of the deep-seated seriousness of American politics.
> sergei says:
June 25, 2011 at 7:56 am (Edit)
Your Congress cries about your little war in Iraq where you will win and goes along with your big war in Afghanistan where you will lose.
Nah, they love that Texas fantasy. And they love that Rick Perry guy.
So does Obama.
> Capitol Boy says:
June 24, 2011 at 5:19 pm (Edit)
Will the wingnuts’ FINALLY quit talking about Texas??!!
QUICK HITS. So how is Texas dealing with the worst state budget crisis in the country? It’s kicking the can down the road. I’ll get into this some more. Texas Governor Rick Perry, a darling of the far right, is fixing to run for president. …