Senator John Kerry is back from Pakistan, where he says he told leaders that the death of Osama bin Laden has cast a spotlight on very serious problems between the US and Pakistan.
** QUICK HITS. Deeply conservative Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn pulled out of the so-called “Gang of Six” senators working toward a grand compromise of cuts and revenues to reform entitlements, probably dooming the effort. As most readers know, I don’t think anything much is going to happen on this any time soon, with an election looming and cuts in Medicare and aligned programs radioactive, as Republicans who voted for Congressman Paul Ryan’s plan are beginning to realize. … Yet it’s become increasingly apparent that support for the Ryan Plan is a litmus test on the right for Republican presidential candidates, with Rush Limbaugh’s continued berating of Newt Gingrich for his straying from the new orthodoxy.
** CALIFORNIA 2011: OF SPIN AND REALITY. Despite the kerfuffle a few weeks ago about Governor Jerry Brown supposedly cutting a sweetheart contract deal with the state’s powerful prison guards union — which had to work for years without a contract under their bete noire, then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger — the reality is that corrections is one of the hardest hit segments in Brown’s proposed budget.
Brown was hit for concluding any contract with the union, officially known as the California Correctional Peace Officers Association, and for not trying to enforce unenforceable limits on compensation for time not taken off due to the exigencies of high-security work.
But the reality is that Brown, whose revised budget plan cuts 5,500 authorized positions from state government, would eliminate 3,6000 positions from the department of corrections. Many of them have gone unfilled in recent years — which occasions the overtime, naturally, and loss of time off — but any public employee union is loathe to give up authorized staffing positions because those are future members.
After meeting today with King Abdullah of Jordan, President Barack Obama noted that with the advent of the Arab awakening peace between Israelis and Palestinians are more important than ever. But the Middle East peace process is in epic failure mode.
** NEW POLL: ECONOMIC CONCERN REACHES TWO-YEAR HIGH, DESPITE RECOVERY. In a sign that high gasoline prices weigh heavy on a lot of minds, despite fresh signs of economic recovery, a new Gallup Poll shows that economic concerns have reached a two-year high.
The fact that oil prices have plummeted since the death of Osama bin Laden — down a whopping 16+% — and gasoline prices have not is obviously weighing heavily.
Three in four Americans name some type of economic issue as the “most important problem” facing the country today — the highest net mentions of the economy in two years. …
Gallup has been asking Americans the most important problem question on a monthly basis since 2001. Economic issues began to dominate Americans’ concerns in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded, and rose to an all-time high of 86% in February 2009. Since then, Americans have still generally been more concerned about economic matters than non-economic ones, although the percentage naming economic concerns did fall for much of 2009 before creeping back up in 2010 and 2011.
Economy, Jobs Americans’ Top Economic Concerns
General economic concerns (35%) and unemployment (22%) are the specific issues currently at the forefront of Americans’ minds. The percentage mentioning the economy in general is up significantly from 26% in April, while unemployment is up just slightly from 19%.
Twelve percent of Americans mention the federal budget deficit or federal debt as the nation’s most important problem, down from 17% in April, although still high on a historical basis. The April reading was the highest Gallup found since 1996.
Mentions of gas prices are up to 8% in the May 5-8 Gallup poll, the highest in nearly three years. …
The leading non-economic problem — dissatisfaction with government — lags way behind Americans’ top economic concerns, at 8%. Mentions of dissatisfaction with government are down from 13% in April, likely the result of the rally in support for President Obama and Congress after the killing of Osama bin Laden. …
The deficit is declining as an issue as economic revival rises again.
While Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Washington are desperately seeking common ground on the federal budget deficit and debt issue — the United States will reach its borrowing limit Monday — Americans are worried primarily about the economy and jobs. If Congress fails to raise or delays raising the debt limit, it could cause economic problems for the country, but Americans may not fully understand these consequences and may instead be prioritizing the issues that are affecting their current daily lives.
Although U.S. job creation reached a 2 ½-year high in April, Americans are still highly concerned about unemployment, underscoring the extent to which the recession devastated the job market. Further improvement on the jobs front — which is closely tied to spending and economic confidence — may be needed before Americans’ priorities on the nation’s top issues shift away from the economy.
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 10 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
President Barack Obama stopped in to see members of the Booker T. Washington High School graduating class, Race to the Top Challenge winners, prior to delivering their commencement address yesterday in Memphis, Tennessee.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the White House.
He then met with King Abdullah II of Jordan in the Oval Office, following which the two made statements to the press.
Jordan is a longstanding critical ally of the US in the Middle East. There have been some demonstrations there as part of the Arab awakening, but the government is relatively benign and appears to be weathering the backwash of the storm.
At 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet for lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 10 AM Pacific, Press Secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.
The event will be netcast live on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 11:50 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden host a White House reception in honor of Jewish American Heritage Month in the East Room.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama and Biden meet with Secretary of Defense Bob Gates in the Oval Office.
For his part, Biden held separate early morning meetings with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Jordanian King Abdullah at the Naval Observatory.
In a serious incident earlier today, a US helicopter reportedly took fire from a Pakistani border outpost and returned fire. There were apparently some casualties, though details remain very sketchy.
NATO airstrikes hit Gaddafi regime targets again last night in Tripoli.
Obama is monitoring a variety of other geopolitical crises, mostly focused on the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.
War Zone Times: Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time, Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Yesterday he presented the annual “May Revise” of the proposed state budget in a Capitol press conference.
See yesterday’s edition for the description.
Reaction has fallen on long predictable hyperpartisan lines, though there are some signs of votes available for his compromise approach.
After a lot of Republican hissing about the labor contracts Brown negotiated earlier this year, which were virtually identical to the ones they approved last year negotiated by Arnold Schwarzenegger, they were finally ratified yesterday in the state Assembly on an easy 54-17 vote.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade. … From my May 11th feature.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade: … From my May 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $61 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Oil is also down over 16% since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Donald Trump, who vaulted to the lead in the Republican presidential field after embracing the “birther” nonsense about President Barack Obama, announced this morning that he will not run for president. He’ll keep on hosting Celebrity Apprentice. Which is no surprise after Obama’s humiliation of Trump, seen in this video, at the White House Correspondents Dinner earlier this month.
** QUICK HITS. Mitt Romney’s campaign says its day-long dialing for dollars exercise with the candidate and hundreds of fundraisers at the Las Vegas Convention Center garnered $10 million in donations to his not yet formally announced second campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. … Radio talker Rush Limbaugh reacted harshly today to Newt Gingrich’s comment on a Sunday chat show that the House-passed “Ryan Plan” is a loser for Republicans due to its disruption of Medicare. … But Gingrich is hardly the only one who thinks, and says, this. One-time Clinton strategist-turned-far right poster boy Dick Morris has been saying for weeks that House Republicans will have to recant their Ryan votes in order to hold on to the House next year. … Governor Jerry Brown’s “May Revise” of his California state budget proposal has so far generated a reaction that falls heavily along on long-established hyperpartisan lines, though there were some signs of compromise to be divined. … In tomorrow’s special election to replace veteran LA area Congresswoman Jane Harman, who resigned to head up a DC think tank on national security, LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, both Democrats, are about to gun their way into a July 12th run-off election. This will be the first between two members of the same party since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s open primary initiative passed in June 2010.
** CALIFORNIA 2011: JERRY BROWN’S RETURN … FOR CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS, TAKE 147. Governor Jerry Brown, looking none the worse for wear — at least as far as his relatively routine skin cancer procedure of 17 days ago is concerned — delivered a trademark engaging, amusing, and pointed performance late this morning as he delivered the annual “May Revise” of the governor’s state budget proposal.
Brown made it clear that the recent bump in revenue, reflective of an improving economy that his right-wing Republican opponents kept claiming was, if anything, getting worse, is no solution to state government’s woes, merely a palliative with respect to a structural deficit.
His new estimate is that California, despite the many doom-sayers out there, is going to reap a $6.6 billion gain in revenue over a 13-month period, $2.5 billion of which is already in. But that simply relying on that is no solution at all.
Brown now reckons the current budget deficit, estimated at $26.6 billion when he took office, at a little under $10 billion. His revised budget proposal, which contains a $1.2 billion reserve, requires $10.8 billion in solutions.
He is also proposing $3 billion in additional spending on public schools, whose spending per pupil has been sliding for years. The schools are still owed billions more under the state’s Prop 98 requirements.
And he proposes to pay down what he calls “the wall of debt” that state government has acquired over the years, which will bring the cost of operating the government down by reducing the vast sums paid out in debt service.
And he proposes to eliminate dozens of state boards and commissions, and to continue consolidating some state agencies, as well as sell several state properties which serve no function in state government, thus not requiring expensive leaseback arrangements. They include the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Oakland’s Montclair Golf Course, and Sacramento’s Capital Area Development Authority.
“California’s economy is growing, but we still face a $10 billion structural deficit and a wall of debt for years to come,” said Brown. “California’s finances were plunged into turmoil by the Great Recession and a decade of short-term fixes and fiscal gimmicks. This is not the time to delay or evade. This is the time to put our finances in order.”
As a result, he’s continuing his insistence on extending 2009 emergency tax increases for five years, but eliminating one year of the income tax extension. He is also sticking to his pledge for a public vote on the matter, which would now have to come sometime after June, Republicans having blocked any ability for that vote to take place, and said he supports a state spending limit.
When might such a ratifying election take place? Brown mentioned the early fall as one possibility.
Brown noted that if Republican legislators continue blocking his move to do away with redevelopment agencies, that will add nearly $2 billion to the current deficit. He is allowing enterprise zones to continue, but only allowing tax credits for new jobs.
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 10 AM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers the commencement address at Booker T. Washington High School in Memphis, Tennessee. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
A prosecutor for the International Criminal Court today issued arrest warrants for Libyan dictator Moamma Gaddafi, his son Seif al Islam, and the regime’s spy chief for alleged crimes against humanity in their ruthless repression of demonstrations against their rule and for their conduct of the war against their opponents.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
A big week on tap in presidential politics, and a big week in California politics as well.
President Barack Obama contends with the aftermath of the takedown of Osama bin Laden, new wrinkles in the Arab awakening and a fresh challenge to Israel, and a Republican presidential race increasingly in full swing. And Governor Jerry Brown issues the May Revise of his proposal to solve the state’s chronic budget crisis.
Obama does have one fewer opponent in the 2012 presidential race. But he also has a few more headaches.
Mike Huckabee, at the least a co-frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, announced Saturday night on his Fox News show that he won’t run for president in 2012. The 2008 Republican presidential runner-up behind John McCain said he had prayed on the question and decided against seeking the presidency.
Huckabee is an engaging, charming fellow who frequently departs from the harsh rhetoric which now marks his party and has been seen to be open-minded on some economic and environmental questions. While he’s indulged in some of the outlandish anti-Obama rhetoric, he has more frequently not, even praising Obama and his family on occasion.
But it always seemed unlikely to me that America would elect a creationist president in the sci/tech age. Though it did not seem all that unlikely that his party would nominate such a candidate.
Huckabee’s evangelical and social conservative backers are very much up for grabs, in first-in-the-nation Iowa, where he would have been a prohibitive favorite, early primary South Carolina, and everywhere else.
Obama would have been able to defeat Huckabee. But should some big things go very wrong, as is hardly impossible, he could have lost to a genial conservative with a pronounced streak of reasonableness
What about the other candidates with sizable numbers in the polls? Ron Paul formally announced late last week and is saying the same old libertarian/isolationist stuff that makes him a force, but not a big contender.
Mitt Romney pretzelized himself, as you can see in Friday’s news video, trying to justify and explain away his intellectual fatherhood with regard to the what the Republican base hates as “Obamacare.” But he has a big day today in, fittingly, Las Vegas, where hundreds of fundraisers join him today at the convention center to dial for dollars, hoping to raise millions.
Newt Gingrich continues to give speeches that are at once intelligent and hateful. After telling a Washington audience that Obama is “the most successful food stamp president in history,” discussed in the Friday edition of NWN, he told the Georgia Republican Party convention over the weekend in Macon that the 2012 election is the most important since the election of 1860
Which of course led to the Civil War.
Gingrich embarks on an extensive statewide tour of Iowa this week.
I thought Huckabee had a real shot at the Republican nomination with some likely early big victories, but running for president in this environment looks like no sort of fun.
Which leaves the tantalizing prize of hordes of fundamentalist and social conservative voters up for grabs. Does this guarantee that Michelle Bachmann is in? Or even draw Sarah Palin back in? And does it pull most of the other candidates even further to the right in the quest for those votes?
How do well-regarded dark horses like Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and former Utah Governor/Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman figure in this? Do they have to wait for a demolition derby at the top?
It feels good for Obama, even though Huckabee, with a pleasing personality, could have been problematic for Obama if some major things go wrong.
Speaking of which, there is Israel.
What if 200,000 Palestinians and Palestinian supporters decide to simply just walk into Israel, unarmed. What would the Israelis do then?
Sunday was the day of Nakba, Arabic for catastrophe, the annual observance of the 1948 displacement of Palestinians upon the end of the British Mandate in Palestine and the beginning of Israeli independence. Thousands of protesters surged early Sunday across the borders in Syria, Lebanaon, and Gaza, finally being driven back by Israeli troops. Some 15 protesters were reportedly killed in the melees, and many more were injured.
The Israeli Cabinet met in emergency session with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu condemning what he called an assault on Israel’s sovereignty, much of it driven in his view by Syria trying to distract from its own internal upheaval.
Indeed, the Syrian regime continues in heavy crackdown mode against its vast internal opposition, but protests continue. And in reality, Palestinian activists have been organizing for weeks online.
Netanyahu comes to Washington this week for an extended visit to America. He meets with Obama late this week.
Israel contended with a flood of protesters across its borders yesterday on the 63rd anniversary of “Nakba,” the Palestinians’ “day of catastrophe in which they were displaced from the territory.
For his part, Obama gives a major address on the Arab awakening, and the struggle with jihadists, on Thursday in Washington. He has plenty to chew on.
Even before the Nakba drama, special Middle East envoy George Mitchell, the former Senate majority leader, resigned Friday as expected. The peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has long been stalled. The recent coalition formed by Fatah and Hamas has the conservative Israeli government, which refused to halt settlements by religious fundamentalists in disputed areas, digging its heels in deeper.
On Friday afternoon, leaders from the Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council met with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. But they were disappointed in that Obama did not drop by. Nor is the US recognizing them as Libya’s official government. Only France, Italy, Gambia, and Qatar have done that so far.
Still, the White House issued a statement calling the council Libya’s “legitimate interlocutor” with the international community. And the US is looking at more ways to help, with Obama meeting with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Meanwhile, NATO is keeping up the pressure on Moammar Gaddafi, with yet another night of air strikes in Tripoli on Gaddafi-related targets. And the International Criminal Court today indicted Gaddafi, his son, and his intelligence chief for crimes against humanity and war crimes.
In Pakistan, armed forces chief Afshaq Kayani met Friday and into Saturday with a closed session of parliament about the Osama bin Laden raid. There is tremendous embarrassment both over America’s ability to carry out the raid without consultation on a site next to Pakistan’s leading military academy, and over bin Laden’s presence in a garrison town not far from the Pakistani capital.
Members of parliament denounced America after they emerged from the session. They then passed a non-binding resolution calling for an end to American drone strikes against jihadist leaders and cadre hiding in Pakistan.
Senator John Kerry is in Pakistan now trying to pave the way for a re-set of relations, and announced that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit soon.
In California politics, Jerry Brown put the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil today.
Will he lessen the tax extensions a bit based on a brighter revenue picture?
Will he focus more on paying down long-term debt than on a rainy day fund?
Brown was keeping information closely held, in contrast to the organized leaks that characterized the administrations of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis.
This will be Brown’s first public appearance since undergoing a fairly routine skin cancer procedure over two weeks ago. I’ve spoken with him during this period, and he is fine, with the usual high energy and verve.
But the interruption came at a bad time, as he had only just emerged from a too lengthy period of operating mostly behind closed doors in pursuit of an elusive state budget compromise. Brown had some public momentum going, but that was dissipated by his renewed absence from the public stage.
And in the meantime, the Capitol scene devolved into its usual desultory and dysfunctional culture of back and forth, marked only in meaningfulness by aborted efforts to occupy the Capitol by public employee advocates.
However, if there is anyone who has shown the ability to jump-start his public presence over the years, it’s Jerry Brown.
Space Shuttle Endeavour launched successfully early this morning on its final space mission. Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, severely wounded in a January assassination attempt, was on hand to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, skipper the spacecraft skyward on her 16-day mission to the International Space Station. After this, the Endeavour will be retired to the California Science Center in Los Angeles.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Tennessee.
Obama flew down to Memphis, Tennessee early this morning on Air Force One to inspect flood damage and meet with those impacted by the heavy weather event.
At 10 AM Pacific, Obama delivers the commencement address at Booker T. Washington High School, the winner of the 2011 Race to the Top Commencement Challenge.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
At 12:25 PM Pacific, Obama departs Memphis, Tennessee on Air Force One en route Andrews Air Force Base.
At 2:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 2:30 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 2:35 PM Pacific, Obama welcomes the University of Connecticut men’s basketball team to the White House for a ceremony honoring their 2011 NCAA national championship in the East Room.
At 3:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the St. Regis Hotel.
At 6:25 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the Capital Hilton.
For his part, Vice President Joe Biden attends the inauguration of former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel as the new mayor of Chicago.
War Zone Times: Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time, Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time, and Afghanistan is eleven and a half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
At 11 AM, he presents the annual “May Revise” of the proposed state budget in a Capitol press conference.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade. … From my May 11th feature.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade: … From my May 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
It is also down over 12% since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Video streaming by Ustream Space Shuttle Endeavour awaits its Monday morning launch at 5:56 AM Pacific from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center. You can click on the button to watch the live shot of the spacecraft and various preparations prior to the lift-off sequence.
** LIVE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL.
The final launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavour will be netcast live on Monday morning here on New West Notes.
You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
The flight was originally scheduled for April 29th, with President Obama and his family in attendance, but was postponed due to an electrical problem.
This is the penultimate voyage of the space shuttle program, and of course the last flight of Endeavour, which will, following this mission to the International Space Station, find its final home at the California Science Center in Los Angeles.
Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, badly wounded in a January assassination attempt in Tucson, Arizona, will be on hand to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, skipper Endeavour as it flies into space on its final mission.
Thousands of protesters surged across Israel’s borders on Syria, Lebanaon, and the Gaza Strip on May 15th’s Nakba Day, commemorating the day of the “catastrophe” as Palestinians call it, their 1948 displacement from Palestine upon the end of the British Mandate and the declaration of Israel’s independence. 15 protesters have reportedly been killed by Israeli troops and many others are injured.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN RETURNS. AGAIN!
** NEW ESSAY COMING UP … WHAT DOES AMERICA’S FAVORITE TELEVISION SERIES TELL US?
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Obama has no scheduled public events.
He does have one fewer opponent in the 2012 presidential race. But he also has a few more headaches.
Mike Huckabee, at the least a co-frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, announced Saturday night on his Fox News show that he won’t run for president in 2012. The 2008 Republican presidential runner-up behind John McCain said he had prayed on the question and decided against seeking the presidency.
Huckabee is an engaging, charming fellow who frequently departs from the harsh rhetoric which now marks his party and has been seen to be open-minded on some economic and environmental questions. While he’s indulged in some of the outlandish anti-Obama rhetoric, he has more frequently not, even praising Obama and his family on occasion.
But it always seemed unlikely to me that America would elect a creationist president in the sci/tech age. Though it did not seem all that unlikely that his party would nominate such a candidate.
Huckabee’s evangelical and social conservative backers are very much up for grabs, in first-in-the-nation Iowa, where he would have been a prohibitive favorite, early primary South Carolina, and everywhere else.
Obama would have been able to defeat Huckabee. But should some big things go very wrong, as is hardly impossible, he could have lost to a genial conservative with a pronounced streak of reasonability. (Yes, you may be gathering that I like Huckabee personally.)
But if Obama has shed a potentially rather strong opponent, he has a few new headaches. Israel being the largest.
Today is the day of Nakba, Arabic for catastrophe, the annual observance of the 1948 displacement of Palestinians upon the end of the British Mandate in Palestine and the beginning of Israeli independence. Thousands of protesters surged early today across the borders in Syria, Lebanaon, and Gaza, finally being driven back by Israeli troops. Some 15 protesters were reportedly killed in the melees, and many more were injured.
The Israeli Cabinet met in emergency session with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu condemning what he called an assault on Israel’s sovereignty, much of it driven in his view by Syria trying to distract from its own internal upheaval.
Indeed, the Syrian regime continues in heavy crackdown mode against its vast internal opposition, but protests continue.
The Pakistani parliament, after going through a marathon private session with army commanders in the wake of national embarrassment over the Navy SEAL takedown of Osama bin Laden, emerged on Saturday to condemn the US and pass a non-binding resolution calling for the end of US drone strikes against jihadist leaders and cadre living in Pakistan.
Senator John Kerry arrived in the region on Saturday, going first to Afghanistan before proceeding to Pakistan. The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee and Senate Foreign Relations chairman has good relations with Pakistani leaders.
While Pakistan’s humiliation and rage were hardly unexpected, this was.
International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was unceremoniously pulled off a flight to Paris Saturday afternoon at New York’s JFK Airport and placed under arrest. The charges? Attempted rape and sexual battery.
A maid at New York’s Sofitel Hotel accused the global financial honcho, a leading candidate for president of France, with sexually assaulting her before hurriedly leaving the hotel yesterday.
Strauss-Kahn has played a central role in dealing with the global financial crisis and is in the midst of coordinating efforts to revive Greece’s economy. He was due in Berlin Sunday to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, with meetings with European finance ministers set in the next few days on the Greek crisis.
Strauss-Kahn, a Socialist politician and former French finance minister and interior minister, has been leading French President Nicolas Sarkozy in polls for the 2012 presidential race. He ran for president in 2008, finishing as a distant runner-up for eventual Socialist presidential nominee Segolene Royal. Sarkozy pushed him for the IMF post as a way to move a potential rival out of the way. But the move backfired as Strauss-Kahn ended up playing a central role in the global financial rescue.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Brown is putting the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil on Monday, May 16th.
Will he lessen the tax extensions a bit based on a brighter revenue picture?
Will he focus more on paying down long-term debt than on a rainy day fund?
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discusses the price of gasoline, the need to avoid manipulation of prices, and expansion of domestic oil production.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefing and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama is prepping for a major address next Thursday on the upheaval in the Arab world, which he will deliver at the State Department in Washington.
At the end of a consequential week in the Republican presidential race, Mike Huckabee will announce on his Saturday evening Fox News show if he is in or out. I don’t know for sure what he’s going to do.
The insider betting had been that he is out. But that may be shifting.
Certainly Huckabee has seen more of an opening with the other candidates flailing. Nothing that happened in last week’s debate would give him any pause at all.
Tim Pawlenty was a bore, as expected. The others who showed, including Ron Paul, look like ultimate fringe candidates.
Speaking of Paul, he formally announced yesterday and is saying the same old stuff that makes him a force, but not a big contender.
Mitt Romney pretzelized himself, as you can see in Friday’s news video, trying to justify and explain away his intellectual fatherhood with regard to the what the Republican base hates as “Obamacare.”
Newt Gingrich continues to give speeches that are at once intelligent and hateful. After telling a Washington audience that Obama is “the most successful food stamp president in history,” discussed in the Friday edition of NWN, he told the Georgia Republican Party convention last night in Macon that the 2012 election is the most important since the election of 1860
Which of course led to the Civil War.
Huckabee can’t beat Obama, unless some major events intervene, but if he’s concerned about his celebrityhood, being the Republican presidential nominee, with his engaging personality, can translate into some major stash.
Yesterday afternoon, leaders from the Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council meet with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. But they were disappointed in that Obama did not drop by. Nor is the US recognizing them as Libya’s official government. On France, Italy, and Qatar have done that so far.
Still, the White House issued a statement calling the council Libya’s “legitimate interlocutor” with the international community. And the US is looking at more ways to help, with Obama meeting with NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Meanwhile, NATO is keeping up the pressure on Moammar Gaddafi, with another night of air strikes in Tripoli on Gaddafi-related targets.
The Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council is making international diplomatic headway, but received qualified support on Friday at the White House.
Special Middle East envoy George Mitchell, the former Senate majority leader, resigned yesterday as expected. The peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has long been stalled. The recent coalition formed by Fatah and Hamas has the conservative Israeli government, which refused to halt settlements by religious fundamentalists in disputed areas, digging its heels in deeper.
In Pakistan, armed forces chief Afshaq Kayani yesterday to a closed session of parliament about the Osama bin Laden raid. There is tremendous embarrassment both over America’s ability to carry out the raid without consultation on a site next to Pakistan’s leading military academy, and over bin Laden’s presence in a garrison town not far from the Pakistani capital.
Members of parliament denounced America after they emerged from the session.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Brown is putting the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil on Monday, May 16th.
I’ve spoken with him during the week and his energy is high and attitude positive.
Meanwhile educators and public employees continue pressuring several Republican legislators in their districts.
Following a second string of Capitol arrests Thursday night, including California Teachers Association president David Sanchez, of protesters outside the offices of Republican legislative leaders, demonstrators again attempted to occupy the Capitol late Friday afternoon.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade.
Obama credits another fixture in California politics, longtime Congressman-turned-federal budget director-turned-Clinton White House chief of staff-turned CIA Director Leon Panetta with having held overall command of the mission to find and take down bin Laden.
Not long after Obama became president and made Panetta his surprise pick to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency — over Feinstein’s objections, as I wrote about at the time on the Huffington Post — he charged him with a special mission. Revive the long lagging hunt for bin Laden, find him, and capture or kill him. … From my May 11th feature.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
The world’s first solar-powered international flight has just taken place, between Switzerland and Belgium.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $99.65 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
It is also down over 12% since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, seen in some circles as the Republican presidential frontrunner, struggled yesterday to explain his position on health care. His plan in Massachusetts is remarkably like the dreaded “Obamacare.”
** QUICK HITS. As expected, Middle East special envoy George Mitchell resigned today. I’m surprised he lasted this long. (Or took the post in the first place.) It’s very difficult to negotiate peace between two sides whose dominant factions simply want to win. … Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, now a leading Republican presidential candidate, today called President Barack Obama “the most successful food stamp president in history.” I wonder what he meant by that. … Not long ago, I heard Donald Trump, then a leading Republican presidential candidate before Obama devastated him in person, say that Obama “needs to spend less time playing basketball.” I wonder what he meant by that. … Not long before that, I heard Mike Huckabee, a leading Republican presidential candidate (unless he gets out of the race, say, tomorrow) say that Obama’s childhood “growing up in Kenya” shaped his world view in un-American ways. Gosh, I wonder what he meant by that. … This is what we call dog whistle politics, folks, speaking in thinly disguised racial code.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN RETURNS. AGAIN!
** CALIFORNIA 2011: THE SECRETARY IS IN. With the release of the annual May revision of the California state budget coming up on Monday, the secretary of symbolism is at work on behalf of Governor Jerry Brown.
The Brown Administration announced today that 70 parks are slated to be closed, including the historic Old Governor’s Mansion in Sacramento where Brown frequently visited as a college student during his father’s governorship. Also closing is the historic Stanford Mansion, which former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger intended to use for official entertaining before those mostly went by the wayside with First Lady Maria Shriver not moving to the capital.
This, I believe, is the first time in history that the State of California has closed a group of state parks.
These closures, incidentally, have already been approved in the budget votes of March. They are simply being announced now. They may be more parks closures in store.
Brown is also preparing to shut down the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board, a longtime highly lucrative sinecure for retired state legislators, four of whom were appointed by Schwarzenegger. Who himself proposed axing the board in 2004 as part of a governmental streamlining that he backed away from.
After some press approval early in the day yesterday, the tide turned against the Assembly Republicans budget “roadmap,” which defaulted to opposition to taxes, belief in a rapidly improving economy, adoption of one-time shifts, and bashing state employees to the tune of 10% additional cuts to “balance” the budget.
It’s nowhere near a structural solution and reads as though it was dashed off as a blog post.
It was especially amusing to see the usual suspects, who’ve said that the taxes from 2009 were devastating the state’s economy, turn around and claim that the economy is now, nonetheless, booming. But that it would stop booming if the same taxes that have been in place are extended.
Folks, this is just dumb. And embarrassing.
** NEW POLL: THE PERSISTENCE OF “BIRTHERISM.” Well, what can you say? The vicious falsehood that President Barack Obama isn’t really an American has been repeatedly debunked. But Donald Trump mainstreamed it, and rose for a time to the heights of leading the Republican presidential race in national polls.
Then it was even more definitively debunked, with Obama humiliating Trump in person at the White House Correspondents Dinner. Less than a day before Obama’s mission to take down Osama bin Laden resulted in spectacular success.
And yet. And yet … Still a quarter of Republicans nationally, in a new Gallup Poll, believe that Obama isn’t really an American citizen.
That’s down sharply from half of all Republicans nationally, but it is still an appalling situation.
Only 13% of Americans say they think Obama was born in a foreign country. But a whopping 20% say they aren’t sure.
That number is 28% among Republicans. So, after all this, we have a slight majority of Republicans who think Obama isn’t really an American citizen or are not sure whether he is or not.
Barack Obama’s release of his long-form birth certificate in late April appears to have removed some — but not all — doubt among Americans about where the president was born. More Americans now say he was definitely born in the United States (47%) than did so before its release (38%) and they are joined by 18% who say this is probably the case. Significantly fewer — but still 13% — say he was probably or definitely born in another country. …
The most recent results are from a Gallup poll conducted May 5-8, while the prior results are from an April 20-23 Gallup poll. Obama released his long-form birth certificate on April 27.
The release came after years of skeptical chatter on the topic and vocal criticism of Obama from some Republicans, including Donald Trump, for withholding the document. While it may not yet be clear whether the most vocal so-called “birthers” were convinced by the certificate’s release, the Gallup surveys show that many Americans across the political spectrum were.
Nearly half of Republicans (49%) now say Obama was definitely or probably born in the U.S., up from 35%. The same is true for 65% of independents, up from 56%, and 81% of Democrats, up from 78%. Republicans are 20 percentage points less likely to say Obama was definitely or probably born in another country, though 23% remain steadfast in this view. They are joined by 14% of independents and 5% of Democrats. …
In the first announced retaliation for the death of Osama bin Laden, some 80 Pakistani police recruits were killed by suicide bombers.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefing and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
In the afternoon, leaders from the Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council meet with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon.
Might Obama drop in, accidentally or on purpose, as he wanders down the hall?
For his part, Vice President Joe Biden attends a fundraising reception for Delaware Senator Senator Tom Carper in New York City.
As you can see, a mostly behind-the-scenes day today for Obama.
Special Middle East envoy George Mitchell, the former Senate majority leader, is reportedly resigning. The peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has long been stalled. The recent coalition formed by Fatah and Hamas has the conservative Israeli government, which refused to halt settlements by religious fundamentalists in disputed areas, digging its heels in deeper.
In Pakistan, armed forces chief Afshaq Kayani speaks today to a closed session of parliament about the Osama bin Laden raid.
Some 80 paramilitary police recruits were killed today in a suicide bombing that the Pakistani Taliban says was in retaliation for the bin Laden’s killing.
Of course, the Pakistani security forces were no part of that.
Reports are emerging that Osama bin Laden, contrary to the belief, was a prolific e-mail correspondent. How did he do this without phone or Internet connections in his compound?
He used trusted couriers. Bin Laden worked up his e-mail directives, observations, and queries on one of his personal computers, transferred them to thumb drives, and dispatched couriers to Internet cafes where they used web-based e-mail programs to send and receive bin Laden’s communications.
In the Libyan War, with much of the rebel leadership in Washington for talks, rebel forces are consolidating their hold on towns in the mountainous west and have reportedly driven the last of the Gaddafi forces from the outskirsts of Misurata, taking control of the airport.
Gaddafi forces shelling and rocket attacks on Misurata have died down after successive evenings of NATO air strikes.
And NATO hit Gaddafi targets in Tripoli hard again last night. There have reportedly been several anti-Gaddafi demonstrations in Tripoli and associated gunfights.
In the Republican presidential race, Ron Paul announced his candidacy on a morning chat show. The Tea Party libertarian has a sizable minority following and the ability to embarrass putative frontrunners in debate.
Speaking of which, Mitt Romney seems to have embarrassed himself yesterday all on his own.
He delivered a speech yesterday trying to explain his support as Massachusetts governor for the universal health care program remarkably similar to “Obamacare.” This is a serious problem for him in the Republican primaries. And it’s a problem should he make it to the general election.
In the Libyan War, rebel forces may be gaining an edge.
It’s a problem he made bigger yesterday by defending the mandated coverage intrinsic to both the Massachusetts and Obama plans. He tried to draw a distinction between requiring it at the state level and requiring it at the national level, but succeeded in pretzelizing himself, drawing widespread criticism across the spectrum, especially on the right.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
Brown is putting the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil on May 16th.
I’ve spoken with him this week and his energy is high and attitude positive.
Meanwhile educators and public employees are staging protests on university campuses and other public facilities.
And today there may, or may not, be another attempt to occupy the State Capitol, as there was early in the week.
More than two dozen people were arrested yesterday evening outside the offices of state Senate Minority Leader Bob Dutton and Assembly Minority Leader Connie Conway when they refused to leave after the building’s 6 PM closing. One of those arrested was California Teachers Association president David Sanchez.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade.
Obama credits another fixture in California politics, longtime Congressman-turned-federal budget director-turned-Clinton White House chief of staff-turned CIA Director Leon Panetta with having held overall command of the mission to find and take down bin Laden.
Not long after Obama became president and made Panetta his surprise pick to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency — over Feinstein’s objections, as I wrote about at the time on the Huffington Post — he charged him with a special mission. Revive the long lagging hunt for bin Laden, find him, and capture or kill him. … From my May 11th feature.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $65 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Arizona Senator John McCain spoke today on the take-down of Osama bin Laden and the role, if any, of torture in leading to the Al Qaeda founder.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN RETURNS. AGAIN!
** QUICK HITS. With Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in attendance for the first time, the Arctic Council meeting ended today in Greenland with the release of a report finding that the last five years in the region are the hottest in at least 2000 years, leading to much faster melting of the ice cap than expected. Which may ironically pave the way for, yes, a big oil and gas rush to get at fossil fuels previously locked beneath the ice. Accordingly, the Council adopted new search & rescue protocols for the Arctic Sea. … Initial reaction to Mitt Romney’s attempt to eliminate his little problem with being the intellectual father of “Obamacare” is, well, not good. For him, that is. No surprise here. … Top leaders of Libya’s rebel national council meet tomorrow at the White House with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. … Here’s a question in California politics: Will public employees protesting the state budget impasse try again tomorrow to occupy the Capitol? The attempt the other night failed, ending in arrests. … SEIU will launch a multi-million dollar ad blitz tomorrow aimed at persuading targeted Republican legislators to vote for Governor Jerry Brown’s budget compromise.
** POST-BIN LADEN: A VERY INTRIGUING QUOTE. Defense Secretary Bob Gates, who retires at the end of June, is on something of a farewell tour of military units and bases. It’s something that’s flying in large part under the media radar. But I just found something very interesting while skimming the transcript of his appearance this morning at the Marine Corps base at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina.
After his speech, an enlisted Marine asked Gates about what measures are being taken to protect the identities and provide security for members of Navy SEAL Team Six. Naturally, Gates couldn’t answer that question, but the beginning of his answer was extremely interesting.
Gates: I think that there has been great — frankly, a week ago Sunday, in the Situation Room, we all agreed that we would not release any operational details from the effort to take out bin Laden. That all fell apart on Monday — the next day.
So the secretary of defense is saying that the National Security Council decided not to release details of the bin Laden raid. Yet less than a day later, a detailed narrative was put out by the White House. A narrative that proved problematic and had to be significantly amended on several occasions.
I wonder how that happened.
** MCCAIN SAYS TORTURE DID NOT LEAD TO OSAMA BIN LADEN. With debate flaring, once again, about the efficacy of torture in gaining consistently usable intelligence, Senator John McCain weighed in today in dramatic fashion. And he went very much against the grain of his fellow Republicans, many of whom are trying to claim a share of credit for the takedown of Osama bin Laden.
The 2008 Republican presidential nominee, now the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and arguably America’s most famous Vietnam War hero, weighed in in dramatic fashion today with a speech on the Senate floor and in an op-ed piece in the Washington Post.
In an impassioned speech on the Senate floor, the Arizona Republican said former Attorney General Michael Mukasey and others who supported those kind of measures were wrong to claim that waterboarding al-Qaida’s No. 3 leader, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, provided information that led to bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan. …
He said he asked CIA Director Leon Panetta for the facts, and that the hunt for bin Laden did not begin with fresh information for Mohammed. In fact, the name of bin Laden’s courier, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, came from a detainee held in another country.
“Not only did the use of enhanced interrogation techniques on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed not provide us with key leads on bin Laden’s courier, Abu Ahmed, it actually produced false and misleading information,” McCain said. He called on Mukasey and others to correct their misstatements. …
On Thursday, McCain also penned an opinion piece for The Washington Post on the topic, saying, “I know from personal experience that the abuse of prisoners sometimes produces good intelligence but often produces bad intelligence because under torture a person will say anything he thinks his captors want to hear — true or false — if he believes it will relieve his suffering. Often, information provided to stop the torture is deliberately misleading.”
Last week, Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said the U.S. got vital information from waterboarding that led directly to bin Laden.
McCain said he opposes waterboarding, a technique that simulates drowning, and any form of torture tactics. He said that they could be used against Americans and that their use damages the nation’s character and reputation. “I do not believe they are necessary to our success in our war against terrorists, as the advocates of these techniques claim they are,” he said.
** CALIFORNIA 2011: WITH BROWN BACK IN TOWN, REPUBLICANS UNVEIL ALTERNATE BUDGET (WELL, NOT REALLY). With Governor Jerry Brown very much back in town, and I can tell you from conversations with him that he is every bit as high energy as before his routine skin cancer procedure, Assembly Minority Leader Connie Conway has unveiled her budget “roadmap.” It’s available exclusively, naturally, on the far right Flash Report.
It’s a budget plan that simply bets on the come, i.e, extrapolates current unanticipated revenue from the strengthening California economy — mind you, Conway and others in her caucus have been insistently, well, insisting that the economy is absolutely in the tank — not only this year but into the future in yet another attempt to cut taxes and avoid future taxes.
It also relies heavily on one-time shifts and other short-term fixes. And of course slams state workers some more.
In other words, it is not a structural solution.
But you can read the whole thing for yourself right here. And, yes, this is it. The entire official Assembly Republican “budget plan.”
On a more serious note, Brown will unveil his May Revise of the state budget next Monday.
Today, I sent a letter to Speaker Pérez on behalf of Assembly Republicans, laying out what we are calling our “Roadmap to a No Tax Increase Budget.”
We have heard a constant drumbeat from Sacramento liberals that sky will fall unless the voters agree to a $55 billion tax increase. This is a myth. In fact, they want you to pay a massive tax hike so they can grow government by 31 percent. This shows how out of touch liberals really are with working families.
When I’m in the grocery store or at community events, my constituents tell me that they want their hard-earned tax dollars to go to the essentials, such as good local schools for their kids and ensuring police and sheriffs have the tools they need to keep us safe. They don’t want their tax dollars wasted on inefficient, big government programs.
Our “Roadmap to a No Tax Increase Budget” is all about getting our budget priorities focused on what really matters, bringing in new revenue by creating jobs and helping state government live within its means again. Our plan shows that we can balance the budget and protect core priorities – without raising taxes.
Protect Education – Assembly Republicans are concerned about the impact the budget will have on classroom dollars. The announcement that California has brought in $2.5 billion in new tax revenue is good news. Assembly Republicans will insist that this “real money in the bank” is used to fully fund the Constitutional minimum funding guarantee for schools.
Democrats, in contrast, have proposed an additional $4.1 billion cut to K-12 education, and $847 million in cuts to higher education. Assembly Republicans will fight any attempt by Democrats to suspend the Proposition 98 constitutional funding guarantee.
Ensure State Workers Contribute Their Fair Share – In these tough times, state government must also cut back. Local governments, school districts and the private sector have had to reduce their workforce. It is astonishing that Democrats actually want people to pay higher taxes so they can grow our state workforce by 1,000 new government workers and shield public employees from budget cuts.
Government workers must also be asked to contribute to a budget solution. Our roadmap includes $1.1 billion in budget savings from the state workforce. It’s also time to enact public employee pension reform. We must address out-of-control pension costs before they bust the budget. Every dollar we spend on pension is money we don’t have for our schools and other essential services.
Keep Californians Safe – Our roadmap also provides $500 million to support law enforcement programs that would have been funded through the Democrats’ proposed car tax increase. We also reject Governor Brown’s dangerous public safety realignment plan. Californians shouldn’t have to live in fear because the state is facing budget problems. By providing zero funding for this scheme, our plan would stop the potential early release of dangerous criminals into our communities.
Eliminate Waste and Abuse block, taxpayers are demanding that their tax dollars be spent as wisely and efficiently as possible. By adopting proposals to end waste and abuse in areas like Medi-Cal eligibility and inmate health care, we can save nearly $1 billion collectively. Enacting reforms to increase efficiency and introduce competition, such as allowing agencies to contract out for non-essential services, would save $1.2 billion collectively.
Adopt Remaining Solutions Proposed by Governor Brown – It is ironic that Governor Brown has proposed additional budget cuts and program savings that lawmakers in the Governor’s own party have failed to enact. If Jerry Brown actually wants to cut government spending, Republicans are happy to help him accomplish his goal. Our roadmap includes many of the Governor’s proposals, which would save up to $3.2 billion.
Our “Roadmap to a No Tax Increase Budget” is only part of the equation. To get California on the road to recovery, we must also work to reform state government, address unsustainable gold-plated public employee pensions and bring back private sector jobs to our state. We will continue to fight for these reforms to get California on the road to economic recovery.
Now the budget debate truly begins in Sacramento. Democrats want to raise your taxes by $55 billion so they can fund bigger government and more giveaways to public employee unions. Republicans want to balance the budget without raising taxes, while protecting the priorities of working families like education and public safety. The choice is clear, and Assembly Republicans will fight hard on behalf of hard-working California taxpayers every step of the way.
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 9:30 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. At 10:35 AM Pacific, President Barack Obama takes part in the Top Cops honors. The events will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
Two men have been arrested in a suspected terror plot in New York City in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s death.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence briefing in the Oval Office.
He then delivered remarks at the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast at the Mellon Auditorium.
Following that, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden met with the Senate Republican Caucus in the Eisenhower Executive Office Bldg.
At 9:30 AM Pacific, Press Secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
Also at 9:30 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden have lunch in the Private Dining Room.
At 10:35 AM Pacific, Obama and Biden honor the National Association of Police Organizations (NAPO) TOP COPS in the Rose Garden.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama meets with the Congressional Black Caucus in the State Dining Room.
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama is interviewed by Telemundo in the Diplomatic Room.
At 1:25 PM Pacific, Obama is interviewed by KINC Univision/Entravision Las Vegas, WLTV Univision 23 Miami and Telemundo Dallas in the Library Room.
For his part, at 11:30 AM Pacific, Biden hosts a meeting with a bipartisan, bicameral group of Members of Congress to continue work on a legislative framework comprehensive deficit reduction at Blair House.
Good news for Obama this morning on the economy. Unemployment claims have dropped sharply in the past month.
And oil is down, too, continuing its subsidence since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Gasoline prices are still high, however, and Senate Democrats are urging that the oil industry’s big tax breaks be eliminated. The industry has pre-tax profits in excess of $200 billion.
Would-be Obama opponent Mitt Romney delivers a speech today trying to explain his support as Massachusetts governor for the universal health care program remarkably similar to “Obamacare.” This is a serious problem for him in the Republican primaries. And it’s a problem should he make it to the general election.
In the Libyan War, NATO strikes hit hard again last night in Tripoli against potential locations of dictator Moammar Gaddafi. He finally surfaced for the first time since his son was killed in a strike at the end of last month, appearing in video footage on Libyan state TV.
But it is not entirely clear when the footage was taken, and there was no audio. The only signifier of a date was not a newspaper, or remarks geared to current events, but a video image in the background which could be manipulated.
In Yemen, longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who keeps saying he will go but turning down deals for just that, had his forces shoot demonstrators again today, killing three. The Gulf Cooperation Council, which thought it had a deal with him for his departure only to find that he refused to sign, is again sending a high-level emissary, and a State Department spokesman called on him to depart on GCC terms.
NATO hit Tripoli hard again last night after video footage of Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi surfaced seeming to show that he has survived previous attacks. Libyan rebels claim to have pushed Gaddafi forces out of the airport of Misurata, their besieged stronghold in the west.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Greenland for the Arctic Council meeting. Climate change is rapidly altering the environment, opening new sea lanes in the near future and roughly a quarter of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves for exploitation. But there are many unresolved problems with all of this, including the likely rise in sea levels around the world.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
He will be back in the public spotlight very soon.
Brown is putting the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil on May 16th.
I’ve spoken with him this week and his energy is high and attitude positive.
Meanwhile educators and public employees are staging protests on university campuses urging cuts in upper management and sports programs rather than on programs and faculty and service employees.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade.
Obama credits another fixture in California politics, longtime Congressman-turned-federal budget director-turned-Clinton White House chief of staff-turned CIA Director Leon Panetta with having held overall command of the mission to find and take down bin Laden.
Not long after Obama became president and made Panetta his surprise pick to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency — over Feinstein’s objections, as I wrote about at the time on the Huffington Post — he charged him with a special mission. Revive the long lagging hunt for bin Laden, find him, and capture or kill him. … From my May 11th feature.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $62 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, arguably the key mover and shaker on the American right in the 1990s, has jumped into the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
** QUICK HITS.Members of the Senate and House Intelligence and Armed Services Committees were invited today to view post mortem photos of Osama bin Laden at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia. Some have already gone; others, such as former California Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, now a member of the House Armed Services Committee, say they don’t need to see the gruesome photos. … Word is that bin Laden’s personal diary, which the Navy SEAL team recovered, and massive amounts of computer files that are still being gone through, show that bin Laden urged serious consideration of attacks on Los Angeles, in particular, and other cities beyond New York and Washington. … A coalition of California business organizations called the Coalition for A California Financial Workout Plan today urged that the Legislature and Governor Jerry Brown re-start stalled negotiations on the state’s chronic budget crisis. Most if not all of the groups have endorsed Brown’s plan, with fiscal and pension reforms. … San Diego County District Attorney Bonnie Doumanis today filed a suit to try to overturn then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s partial commutation of the lengthy manslaughter sentence against Esteban Nunez, son of former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who was involved in a fatal brawl but did not strike the victim. Since the governor’s powers in this area are enshrined in the constitution it’s hard to see what the point is beyond the political. The theory is that a new initiative required that victims be allowed to participate in any process around pardons or sentence reductions before parole boards and so on. But there is no such process in this case.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.The first official to announce the death of Osama bin Laden was not President Barack Obama, it was Senator Dianne Feinstein. The Senate Intelligence Committee chair was speaking at a memorial service in Santa Monica for her longtime campaign manager, Kam Kuwata.
Feinstein says she thought that Obama was about to give his nationally televised address. Which he actually gave about an hour later. And that the memorial, filled with pols and media types, was off the record. Which of course is why her remarks were reported in the media.
But Feinstein’s premature announcement of one of the biggest stories in recent memory is only one of the California connections to the demise of the legendary founder and leader of al Qaeda, who claimed credit for ordering the 9/11 attacks on America and eluded American forces for nearly a decade.
Obama credits another fixture in California politics, longtime Congressman-turned-federal budget director-turned-Clinton White House chief of staff-turned CIA Director Leon Panetta with having held overall command of the mission to find and take down bin Laden.
Not long after Obama became president and made Panetta his surprise pick to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency — over Feinstein’s objections, as I wrote about at the time on the Huffington Post — he charged him with a special mission. Revive the long lagging hunt for bin Laden, find him, and capture or kill him.
Some of that story has been reported on. More will come out in the days, weeks, months, and years ahead.
When Feinstein realized that Obama was very serious about Panetta as his CIA director, she went along with the program. Before that happened, she got some well-deserved flak. …
** NEW POLL: AFTER BIN LADEN, AMERICANS SAY “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” IN AFGHANISTAN. In another sign that polls are snap shots of a moving target, in their case the evolution of opinion, a new Gallup Poll shows that the country is more favorably disposed to the mission in Afghanistan. And that a big majority believes that mission has now been accomplished and US troops should be withdrawn.
Last week, in the immediate aftermath of the Navy SEAL raid that took down Osama bin Laden in his compound near Pakistan’s leading military academy, most felt that there was still unfinished business for the US in Afghanistan. Now that view has evolved into something else.
After the death of Osama bin Laden, a slim majority of Americans now say things are going well for the United States in Afghanistan, a four-percentage-point increase from late March. This marks the first time in nearly two years that the majority has held this view, and only the second time since Gallup began tracking these opinions on the war in 2006. …
Republicans and Democrats view U.S. progress similarly, with 55% of each group saying things are going well for the United States in Afghanistan in the May 5-8 USA Today/Gallup poll. That marks a shift from March, when Republicans were much more positive. Both groups are more positive than independents, 45% of whom think things are going well for the U.S.
In addition to their somewhat more positive overall assessment of U.S. progress in the war, Americans also are a bit more supportive of the war effort in general than they were before bin Laden’s death. Now, 58% say the United States did not make a mistake in sending troops to Afghanistan, up from 53% in late March. …
Republicans are more supportive of the war effort in general. Currently, 69% of Republicans, 54% of independents, and 52% of Democrats say the United States did not make a mistake in sending troops to Afghanistan.
Although a majority says the war was not a mistake, the public seems more inclined to end it rather than keep it going. Gallup finds 59% of Americans saying the U.S. “has accomplished its mission” and “should bring its troops home,” while 36% say the U.S. “still has important work to do in Afghanistan and should maintain its troops there.”
Republicans are divided in their views of whether the U.S. has fulfilled its mission in Afghanistan or still has work to do. Independents and Democrats, by 2-to-1 margins, believe the U.S. has finished its work in Afghanistan and should bring its troops home.
The poll also finds that the killing of bin Laden is one of the most closely followed news stories of the past 20 years.
With details of the U.S. military operation that resulted in bin Laden’s death still coming out, Gallup asked Americans how closely they are following the news about the event. Forty-two percent say they are following it very closely and another 41% somewhat closely.
The combined 83% who are following the story at least somewhat closely ranks in the top 15 out of 206 news stories for which Gallup has used this measure since 1991.
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 9 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
A new national poll for the Associated Press shows a big post-bin Laden surge in support for President Barack Obama.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefing in the Oval Office.
At 9 AM Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 9 AM Pacific, press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.
The event will be webcast live on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 11 AM Pacific, Obama participates in a CBS News Townhall Meeting on the Economy at the Newseum.
At 1:20 PM Pacific, Obama meets with the Senate Democratic Caucus in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building.
At 4:10 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama host a celebration of American poetry and prose in the East Room.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is off to Greenland for the Arctic Council meeting there on Wednesday and Thursday.
Obama rates high in most categories, including the economy, with massive majorities rating him as a strong leader who will keep America safe.
But he gets low marks on gasoline prices and on the budget deficit.
In the face of that, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich announces his candidacy today for the Republican presidential nomination.
After rhetorically attacking the US in the wake of the spectacular commando take-down of Osama bin Laden next door to its military academy, Pakistan is now making nice by saying it will allow CIA access to three bin Laden wives left behind at the scene.
In the Libyan War, NATO launched a major strike at Gaddafi command centers in Tripoli Monday night. The longtime dictator has still not resurfaced.
Libyan rebels are moving forward on a couple of fronts.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
He will be back in the public spotlight very soon.
Brown is putting the finishing touches on the “May Revise,” the annual revision of a governor’s budget proposal, which he will unveil on May 16th.
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, accepting an award last night in Los Angeles on the occasion of Israeli Independence Day, thanked people for an outpouring of concern for him and former First Lady Maria Shriver in the wake of the announcement of their separation, saying they both still love each other and he’s taking things day by day.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILES. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles.
On Monday evening, in response to an emerging story in the LA Times, he released a statement announcing that he and former First Lady Maria Shriver have separated.
The predictable media firestorm ensued, largely based on no information and speculation.
Schwarzenegger appeared at an Israeli Independence Day event last evening at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles.
In the course of it, he made the statement you can see in the video above.
What is interesting to note about this is that the announcement was not planned by Schwarzenegger or Shriver. It came about in response to an emerging story in the LA Times that Shriver had moved out of the couple’s Brentwood home a few weeks ago.
Today the paper’s media columnist, noting the Times’s controversial last minute blast at Schwarzenegger during the 2003 recall campaign — which backfired, as I predicted at the time — did an odd sort of victory dance, claiming that the separation is a kind of vindication of the paper’s anti-Schwarzenegger stance of 2003.
Writes columnist James Rainey: “The truth was, the story and its central figure may have presented a glossy and attractive narrative. But the final cut fit right into a drearily familiar mold.”
I’m sure I know more about what is going on here than this fellow, and I don’t know what’s going to happen. But certain Times folks do have reason to be bitter about 2003 and its aftermath, which marked the further decline of a once near great newspaper.
The Times coverage backfired badly, and Schwarzenegger won in a landslide.
The column also makes this false claim: “… the Los Angeles Times broke the story about Schwarzenegger’s history of touching and groping women when he was Hollywood’s star of stars.”
Actually, as I mentioned yesterday, and more than mentioned at the time, the Times didn’t break any story. It recycled a Premiere Magazine story from 2001.
This was all the Times and its special Schwarzenegger unit, established and directed by then Times editor John Carroll, was able to come up with after months of chasing the great white whale Arnold.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.California Democrats gathered this past weekend in Sacramento for their annual party convention were in a rather curious mood. They’ve gotten what they wanted. But they have mixed feelings about what they’ve ended up with.
Like their Republican counterparts who gathered in convention less than a month-and-a-half earlier in the same place, the Democratic activists and various party and interest group leaders, lobbyists, consultants, and politicians are more from the true believing side of things than most voters, even of their own respective parties. But the Democrats didn’t have the bursts of strangeness that the Republicans had. Sweeping last November’s elections, even as the rest of the country bled red, was very gratifying. But given the state’s budget woes, there’s little for activists to celebrate in terms of programmatic accomplishment. … From my May 2nd feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $102 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $68 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Speaking today in El Paso, Texas, President Barack Obama talked up comprehensive immigration reform — last championed by former President George W. Bush, Senator John McCain, and the late Senator Ted Kennedy — and said that no matter what steps he takes to secure the border and beef up enforcement, Republicans will never be satisfied.
** QUICK HITS.Continuing his pattern since losing the 2008 presidential race, Senator John McCain joined fellow Arizona Senator Jon Kyl in blasting President Barack Obama on immigration and border issues. Obama has much the same position now that McCain had at the high water mark of the move to liberalize immigration laws in 2006. Don’t expect any action at all on this issue. It’s all about positioning: With Latinos for Obama; with conservatives for McCain. Space Shuttle Endeavour, with a switch box replaced and electronics checked, is again set to lift off on its last ever mission, this time next Monday morning, May 16th. No word yet on whether the Obamas will again be in attendance, but Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, badly wounded in a January assassination attempt, will again be on hand to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, take Endeavour one last time into the sky. Endeavour after decommissioning will finds it home in LA’s California Science Center. … In California, the administration of the energetic Governor Jerry Brown, who will re-emerge soon in public view after a successful procedure removing a common skin cancer, is backing away from the massive tunnel diverting water from the Sacramento River Delta enacted by the previous Legislature and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and looking at a group of smaller scale options. It is also beginning to roll out reorganizations of state agencies.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.
** NEW POLL: GINGRICH WIDELY KNOWN, NARROWLY SUPPORTED. With former House Speaker Newt Gingrich prepping to jump into the Republican president race on Wednesday, the Gallup Poll has some new soundings on his candidacy.
Let’s say that he’s not trending upward.
And he has the lowest intensity of support of any of the more well-known candidates.
Well, except for Donald Trump.
The best news comes for Mike Huckabee.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, expected to announce his presidential candidacy on Wednesday, is well-known among Republicans, but has a below-average — and declining — Positive Intensity Score. Mike Huckabee receives the highest Positive Intensity Score among Republicans nationwide who recognize him. Donald Trump, although universally recognized by Republicans, has the lowest Positive Intensity Score of any of the 13 candidates tested in Gallup’s April 25-May 8 tracking. …
These findings are based on interviews with more than 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide. Gallup tracks these candidates’ images on a daily basis. Beginning May 10, results will be reported on Gallup.com’s new Election 2012 site, with updates each Tuesday.
Gallup asks Republicans whether they recognize each potential candidate and, for each one they recognize, asks whether they have a strongly favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person. Gallup calculates a “Positive Intensity Score” for each person rated, based on the difference between strongly favorable and strongly unfavorable opinions among those who are familiar with him or her. This score provides an indication of the intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers at any given point in the campaign.
Gingrich is poised to announce his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Wednesday with Twitter and Facebook posts, followed by an appearance on Fox News.
Gingrich is well-known among Republicans nationwide, with a current overall recognition score of 84%. On the other hand, he faces an image challenge among Republicans. The former speaker’s Positive Intensity Score is 11, below this week’s average score of 13 for all potential candidates measured, and down from his high of 19 recorded between March 14 and April 3. …
More specifically, 16% of Republicans who recognize Gingrich have a strongly favorable opinion of him, while 5% have a strongly unfavorable opinion (complete data for each candidate are included in the Gallup Election 2012 site).
Businessman and television personality Trump, recipient of much publicity over the last several weeks, has the unenviable distinction of receiving a Positive Intensity Score of 0, the lowest for any of the 13 candidates measured. Overall, 98% of Republicans recognize Trump, but among this group 12% say their opinion of Trump is strongly favorable, while 11% say it is strongly unfavorable. Rounding differences result in his overall net score of 0. Last week, when Trump’s numbers were first reported, his Positive Intensity Score was 4, suggesting he lost ground after a week in which he was the butt of jokes that comedian Seth Meyers and President Barack Obama delivered at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner. That same week, Trump’s focus on Obama’s birthplace was defused by the release of Obama’s long-form birth certificate.
Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has a Positive Intensity Score of 24, and on this criterion is the strongest candidate in the field. Huckabee’s intensity scores have been at the top of the list each week since Gallup began tracking them in late February. Eighty-five percent of Republicans recognize Huckabee. He continues to host a show on Fox News and has made no formal announcements concerning plans to run for his party’s presidential nomination. …
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 12:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama will discuss the nation’s tangled immigration situation in El Paso, Texas. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
A major NATO strike reportedly hit Tripoli last night as Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi struggles to maintain the present impasse with rebel forces.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Texas.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama then departed from Andrews Air Force Base on Air Force One for El Paso, Texas.
At 11:40 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in El Paso, Texas.
At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers a speech on comprehensive immigration reform at the Chamizal National Memorial in El Paso.
The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 1:40 PM Pacific, Obama departs El Paso, Texas on Air Force One en route to Austin, Texas.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Austin, Texas.
At 3:50 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the Moody Theater in Austin.
At 5:25 PM Pacific, Obama remarks at a DNC event at a private residence in Austin.
At 7:15 PM Pacific, Obama departs Austin, Texas on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 11:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 11:30 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner hold a second day of talks with their Chinese counterparts in the annual US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.
Clinton heads to Greenland late today for the Arctic Council meeting there on Wednesday and Thursday.
After rhetorically attacking the US in the wake of the spectacular commando take-down of Osama bin Laden next door to its military academy, Pakistan is now making nice by saying it will allow CIA access to three bin Laden wives left behind at the scene.
In the Libyan War, NATO launched a major strike at Gaddafi command centers in Tripoli last night. The longtime dictator has not yet resurfaced.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
I spoke with him yesterday while he was holding a conference call on the budget. As previously reported, he will release the “May Revise” version of his budget on May 16th in the Capitol.
The California Highway Patrol arrested some 65 demonstrators attempting to remain in the Capitol last night after its closing.
They are teachers and left-wing activists demonstrating against program cuts and in favor of tax increases not yet agreed to by Republican legislators.
In happier times, then First Lady Maria Shriver introduced Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, seen in this NWN video, as they celebrated his second straight 17-point landslide win for governor of California at the Beverly Hilton on November 7th, 2006.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILES. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles.
Yesterday evening, he released a statement announcing that he and former First Lady Maria Shriver have separated. The statement was first issued to the Los Angeles Times, which was pursuing a story based on reports that the former first lady had moved out of the couple’s Brentwood home.
Schwarzenegger was a personal friend of mine before he ran for governor and is a personal friend now. So obviously I’m not going to indulge in this story. I don’t know Shriver nearly as well, but she’s clearly a very fine and accomplished person.
Nor do I know what is going on. I think it fortunate to know what is going on in my own life.
I’m also not going to get into knocking down various reports, as that is the nature of the celebrity journalism game and neither it not its opposite is the purpose of what I do.
I will say that two reports I’ve seen early on, in sources as disparate as TMZ and the New York Times, are erroneous.
Schwarzenegger and Shriver did not grow apart, if in fact they have, due to his absence as governor. In reality, he went home practically every night in Los Angeles his last few years as governor. The state capital, of course, is in Sacramento, 400 miles to the north.
Nor did Shriver elect him in the 2003 recall election. She was opposed to his running and was later helpful in the campaign. But Schwarzenegger asked me in 2002, because of my involvement with Gary Hart, what I thought of reports about him in Premiere Magazine about inappropriate episodes with other women. I told him that, if handled in a logical manner, it was easily survivable.
The reports which the LA Times came up with at the end of the 2003 recall campaign were basically warmed over versions of the same reports we had discussed from Premiere Magazine. They backfired with the electorate. Shriver did make a speech during this sequence on her husband’s behalf. But it would only have been a major event had she not spoken.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.California Democrats gathered this past weekend in Sacramento for their annual party convention were in a rather curious mood. They’ve gotten what they wanted. But they have mixed feelings about what they’ve ended up with.
Like their Republican counterparts who gathered in convention less than a month-and-a-half earlier in the same place, the Democratic activists and various party and interest group leaders, lobbyists, consultants, and politicians are more from the true believing side of things than most voters, even of their own respective parties. But the Democrats didn’t have the bursts of strangeness that the Republicans had. Sweeping last November’s elections, even as the rest of the country bled red, was very gratifying. But given the state’s budget woes, there’s little for activists to celebrate in terms of programmatic accomplishment. … From my May 2nd feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
A spectacular fireworks show last night over Moscow closed out Monday’s celebration of Victory Day, marking the end of the war with Nazi Germany 66 years ago.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Pakistan rejects criticism it’s enduring for allowing the world’s most recognizable fugitive to live under its nose and warned that future raids, especially against “strategic assets” (likely its nuclear weapons) would meet with retaliation.
** QUICK HITS. While throwing up a highly publicized negative reaction today to the Navy SEAL raid on Osama bin Laden, Pakistan more quietly agreed to allow the CIA to question the three widows of bin Laden that the commando team left behind. … With Florida under its new conservative governor rejecting federal high-speed rail funding, California’s warchest for its project continued to grow today, to the tune of another $368 million. This will go to the Central Valley, where air connections are sparse and expensive. … California’s state Senate today approved legislation exposing the use of mercenary signature gatherers for initiatives and curtailing bounty payments for signatures.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.
** ANOTHER SHOE DROPS IN BIN LADEN’S WAKE AS PAKISTANI MEDIA OUTS APPARENT CIA STATION CHIEF. With Pakistani government officials embarrassed internationally and to a certain degree at home by the revelation that Osama bin Laden was living near the nation’s leading mlitary academy, and at home by the humiliation of having U.S. special forces carry out a raid in a garrison town with seeming impunity, another shoe has dropped. A Pakistani TV network identified someone they say is the CIA station chief in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.
This is the second time in a matter of months that this has happened.
CIA Director and former California Congressman Leon Panetta, soon to be the secretary of defense if confirmed as expected by the U.S. Senate, hasn’t said what will be done.
In a development that could further fray tensions between the Pakistan and the United States, Pakistani media this weekend reported what they said was the name of the current CIA station chief in Islamabad. The name, apparently misspelled, was aired by a private television station, ARY, on Friday and published in the right-wing English-language newspaper The Nation on Saturday.
In Washington, U.S. officials said they suspected that the name — although erroneous in part — may have been deliberately leaked by Pakistan’s intelligence service — known as the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, or ISI — in retaliation for U.S. criticism following the bin Laden raid. CIA Director Leon Panetta told lawmakers last week that Pakistan’s military and intelligence services were either complicit or incompetent.
U.S. officials acknowledged they have no evidence so far to back up the assertion that Pakistan had sought to out the CIA’s station chief. Late last year, in a similar episode, U.S. officials also believed the Pakistanis had intentionally blown the cover of the agency’s top spy in the country. At the time, officials suspected the name had been disclosed in retaliation for a lawsuit filed in New York that identified Pakistan’s intelligence chief as a defendant.
In that instance, the CIA pulled its top officer out of the country. But it is not clear whether the CIA will take the same step now.
The prior chief was nearing the end of his assignment in Pakistan when he was recalled to agency headquarters. By contrast, the new CIA station chief has been assigned to Islamabad for only about five months. He was described as a veteran officer known for a blunt manner and extensive background in operations against the former Soviet Union.
Former CIA officials who have worked in the country said station chiefs typically work primarily within the U.S. Embassy compound and could function in the job even if their cover had been blown.
** NEW SURVEY: HOW REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL BACKING BREAKS DOWN DEMOGRAPHICALLY. With the Republican presidential campaign at last ramping up, a new Gallup Poll survey provides interesting information about how support for candidates breaks down demographically.
Much of it is as you might expect, of course.
For example, among the candidates with significant support, the richest hopeful, Mitt Romney, a product of Harvard, has the most support from high-income Republicans and Republican college graduates. And he lags among lower-income Republicans.
And the candidate with the least education, Sarah Palin, has the most support from low-income Republicans and the second-most support from Republicans who are not college products. She also has the least support among high-income Republicans.
Republican college degree holders are more likely than those without a degree to support Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, 21% vs. 13%. Similarly, Romney’s support climbs from 9% of Republicans earning less than $24,000 annually to 21% of those earning $90,000 or more. The reverse is true for Sarah Palin, who is favored by nearly twice as many Republicans without a college degree as those with one, 16% vs. 9%, and her support decreases by income from 22% among the lowest income group to 7% among the highest. …
These findings are based on the 2012 Republican primary preferences of 3,304 Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) across three national Gallup surveys conducted in February, March, and April as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The combined data do not include support for Donald Trump, given that he was not included in Gallup’s trial heat surveys in February or March. Trump tied Huckabee for first with 16% support in the April poll, but for this analysis, that 16% is reapportioned to the candidates who were his voters’ second choice.
Huckabee, who has either ranked first or tied for first in all three surveys since February, does not spark strong socioeconomic differences in Republicans’ support, nor do Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul.
Support for other candidates included in Gallup polling, including Michele Bachmann, Mitch Daniels, and Tim Pawlenty, is in the low single digits, a level at which demographic distinctions are less meaningful.
Mike Huckabee is the clear leader among conservatives, with 21% to Romney’s 15%, Palin’s 13%, and Gingrich’s 10%. He is in a statistical dead heat with Romney and Palin among moderates and liberals.
And there are clear regional differences among the candidates, with Huckabee having a significant edge in the South and Midwest, and Romney holding the edge in the East and the West.
In his first extended interview since the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden last night on 60 Minutes, President Barack Obama said the risks of the ultra-secret mission were out-weighed by the chance “of us finally getting our man” and called the raid “the longest 40 minutes of my life.”
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Another big week in presidential politics, in the shadow of bin Laden, with President Barack Obama moving forward with the glow of the spectatcular Navy SEAL raid and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the Republican presidential race. And an uncertain week in California politics, with Governor Jerry Brown once again behind closed doors and the usual desultory ping-pong of long dug-in opposites in his absence from the public stage.
Before discussing the dynamics, here’s a quick look at Obama’s block schedule for the week.
On Monday, Obama will meet with the co-chairs of the U.S. and China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, including Secretary of State Clinton, Treasury Secretary Geithner, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo. He will also meet with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano to go over security concerns.
On Tuesday, Obama will travel to the El Paso, Texas area to deliver a speech on fixing the broken immigration system. He will then travel to Austin, Texas before returning to Washington.
On Wednesday, Obama will participate in a town hall hosted by CBS at the Newseum taking questions from citizens. In the evening, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will host a celebration of American poetry and prose by welcoming accomplished poets, musicians and artists as well as students from across the country to the White House.
On Thursday, Obama will deliver remarks at the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast.
On Friday, the President will attend meetings at the White House.
As usual, Obama’s schedule gets more vague toward the end of the week, allowing for adjustments to changing events.
Crude oil closed on Friday down a whopping 15% since the death of Osama bin Laden. A large chunk of the geopolitical risk premium has been wrung out of the price, and there is a lot more where that came from.
As noted here on Friday morning, the economy recorded its third straight month of 200,000-plus job growth in April, with the biggest single month of job growth in five years and retail spending up again.
So even with rising oil and gasoline prices, the economic recovery was still gaining strength, despite a downturn in economic psychology. With oil and, presumably, gasoline down significantly the economic recovery, uneven though it most assuredly is, should continue apace.
House Speaker John Boehner will speak in New York City, calling for “trillions” in cuts to the federal debt in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. But since the much touted Ryan Plan, promoted by Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, passed by the House and DOA in the Senate contains cuts that are highly unpopular, and since Boehner the first time around settled for $38.5 billion in budget cuts that are actually far less, this looks like more hollow posturing.
Obama appeared last night on the CBS program 60 Minutes to discuss the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden. He told the program that the Al Qaeda leader must have had a major support network inside Pakistan and that we are investigating it.
As we’ve been so heavily focused on the historic bin Laden mission and its aftermath and repercussions, and on the Libyan War, some other big developments have been underway.
Egypt, where many believed a secular democratic revolution had triumphed, is moving to embrace a more Islamist position in global affairs. And in some ways, in domestic affairs. This past weekend has seen major clashes between Islamic fundamentalists and Coptic Christians following attacks in the Christian community, including the destruction of a church by Islamic fundamentalists.
Egypt is opening the Rafah border crossing, which was closed at the request of Israel to keep weapons out of the Gaza Strip.
In the last week, Egypt brokered the alliance between Hamas and Fatah.
And after allowing two Iranian warships to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time in more than three decades shortly after the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt is moving to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran.
But while Iran seeks to take advantage of the Arab awakening in Egypt, Bahrain, and elsewhere, the Tehran regime is riven by a bizarre feud at the top between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the country’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
You can see the details in the Al Jazeera report at the top of the Weekend Edition. There is substantial speculation that Khamenei will fire Ahmadinejad, which the supreme religious leader can do under the constitution of the Islamic republic. Khamenei has already caused the firings of several of Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff’s close associates on grounds that they are “magicians.” Yes, you read that right.
The Afghan Taliban staged attacks throughout the weekend in Kandahar, besieging the governor’s compound and the offices of various security forces. Some of the cadre freed in last month’s massive prison break reportedly participated.
In California politics, there is far less going on.
Governor Brown will have no public events until the stitches are removed from his out-patient surgery for a common skin cancer. He will probably re-emerge sometime this week.
He continues working on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration. He will release the annual “May Revise” of his budget on May 16th.
Not much has been happening in his public absence. Privately, Brown has been talking on the phone, naturally, and meeting with staff and administration officials, principally in Oakland.
He has made a number of appointments, including a new head of General Services, a key post in the bureaucracy, and appointees to an interstate education commission.
Meanwhile, some Republican leaders, for whom arithmetic is evidently not a strong suit, have seized on an uptick in revenues as a sign that tax extensions aren’t necessary.
Presumably their deregulationist/tax-cutting approach to the economy isn’t necessary, either, by this line of “reasoning.”
And some Democratic leaders have issued some rather hollow-sounding threats about targeting budget cuts in Republican districts.
Teachers and other public employees are spinning up grassroots pressure campaigns and media campaigns targeted at some Republican legislators to support the tax extensions, explaining the dire alternatives.
Pakistan’s prime minister today insisted in a speech to his country’s parliament that his government should not be blamed for Osama bin Laden having found safe haven less than a mile from Pakistan’s leading military academy. He also threatened retaliation against any future such raids while claiming that his country has a strong relationship with America.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 12:20 PM Pacific, Obama meets with the crew of Space Shuttle Discovery in the Oval Office.
At 1:35 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano in the Oval Office.
There is a significant potential for retaliatory terrorist attacks in the wake of the take-down of Osama bin Laden and intelligence gathered by the Navy Seal team from his compound is yielding evidence of future Al Qaeda targets.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with the co-chairs of the U.S. and China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in the Oval Office.
For his part, Biden delivers remarks this morning at the opening session of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue at the Department of the Interior and, in the afternoon, swears in incoming Senator from Nevada Dean Heller at the U.S. Capitol.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Libyan War, the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown continues working on the state’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …From my May 7th essay.
** CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.California Democrats gathered this past weekend in Sacramento for their annual party convention were in a rather curious mood. They’ve gotten what they wanted. But they have mixed feelings about what they’ve ended up with.
Like their Republican counterparts who gathered in convention less than a month-and-a-half earlier in the same place, the Democratic activists and various party and interest group leaders, lobbyists, consultants, and politicians are more from the true believing side of things than most voters, even of their own respective parties. But the Democrats didn’t have the bursts of strangeness that the Republicans had. Sweeping last November’s elections, even as the rest of the country bled red, was very gratifying. But given the state’s budget woes, there’s little for activists to celebrate in terms of programmatic accomplishment. … From my May 2nd feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
With the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers swept from the play-offs last night by the Dallas Mavericks in the conference semi-finals, legendary coach Phil Jackson confirmed that he is retiring.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $99 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Crude oil by 15% in the wake after the killing of Osama bin Laden, with a deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.
This is up about $5 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
With ou attention focused elsewhere, a strange and bitter power struggle plays out in Iran between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who restored the intelligence minister Ahmadinejad sacked and had several of his chief of staff’s close associates arrested as “magicians.” Yes, you read that right. This is what comes of religious government.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: THE CALIFORNIA CONNECTION.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received his daily intelligence report.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama appears tonight on the CBS program 60 Minutes to discuss the Navy SEAL take-down of Osama bin Laden. He tells the program that the Al Qaeda leader must have had a major support network inside Pakistan and that we are investigating it.
As we’ve been so heavily focused on the historic bin Laden mission and its aftermath and repercussions, and on the Libyan War, some other big developments have been underway.
Egypt, where many believed a secular democratic revolution had triumphed, is moving to embrace a more Islamist position in global affairs. And in some ways, in domestic affairs. This weekend has seen major clashes between Islamic fundamentalists and Coptic Christians following attacks in the Christian community.
Egypt is opening the Rafah border crossing, which was closed at the request of Israel to keep weapons out of the Gaza Strip.
In the last week, Egypt brokered the alliance between Hamas and Fatah.
And after allowing two Iranian warships to pass through the Suez Canal for the first time in three decades following the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt is moving to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran.
But while Iran seeks to take advantage of the Arab awakening in Egypt, Bahrain, and elsewhere, the Tehran regime is riven by a bizarre feud at the top between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the country’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
You can see the details in the Al Jazeera report at the top of the Weekend Edition. There is substantial speculation that Khamenei will fire Ahmadinejad, which the supreme religious leader can do under the constitution of the Islamic republic.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown will have no public events until the stitches are removed from his out-patient surgery for a common skin cancer. He will probably re-emerge sometime in the following week.
He continues working on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration. He will release the annual “May Revise” of his budget on May 16th.
Not much has been happening in his public absence.
Privately, Brown has been talking on the phone, naturally, and meeting with staff and administration officials, principally in Oakland.
He has made a number of appointments, including a new head of General Services, a key post in the bureaucracy, and appointees to an interstate education commission.
The Pentagon on Saturday released some of the video seized in the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. It shows the Al Qaeda emir watching himself and others, including President Obama.
** IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE. If there was a worse week in which to hold the first Republican presidential debate, it’s hard to think of when that might be.
It’s probably poetic justice that the first Republican presidential debate took place Thursday night in the shadow of Osama bin Laden, for his very existence spurred the accomplishment of some of the right’s biggest objectives in the past decade:
* The Bush/Cheney crew had made their desire to invade Iraq clear from the beginning. The post-9/11 atmosphere of fear, and bin Laden’s ability to slip through our grasp at Tora Bora, created a very supportive atmosphere for the invasion of Iraq, which was supposedly aligned with bin Laden and supposedly possessed of WMD.
* Then, with Al Qaeda recruitment up in response to America blundering into the Muslim world, that provided more of a rationale to stay in Iraq. In order to defeat Al Qaeda, whose ranks were swelled by the invasion.
* And bin Laden’s dramatic 2004 election eve tape threatening America helped George W. Bush eke out his re-election win over John Kerry.
So the halting start of the competition for the Republican presidential nomination in the shadow of bin Laden’s death holds no little irony. …
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama talks up clean energy technology as the only long-term alternative to dependence on foreign oil and high gasoline prices.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefing and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He has no scheduled public events.
Crude oil closed yesterday down a whopping 15% since the death of Osama bin Laden. A large chunk of the geopolitical risk premium has been wrung out of the price, and there is a lot more where that came from.
As noted here yesterday morning, the economy recorded its third straight month of 200,000-plus job growth in April, with the biggest single month of job growth in five years and retail spending up again.
So even with rising oil and gasoline prices, the economic recovery was still gaining strength, despite a downturn in economic psychology.
Obama met privately yesterday with the Navy SEAL commandos and Army helicopter crews who took part in the Osama bin Laden raid, awarding them and the units they represent — Navy SEAL Team Six, 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, Joint Special Operations Command — the Armed Forces’ highest unit decoration, the Presidential Unit Citation. This award requires a collective level of heroism commensurate with that needed to earn the Navy Cross or the Distinguished Service Cross, the nation’s second highest award for valor after the Medal of Honor. There will be separate personal decorations awarded to team members in secret.
Why are these awards being made in secret, and why are the names of the men who carried out one of the greatest military and intelligence missions in history being withheld?
There are two reasons.
First, to avoid exposing them and their families to retaliation from jihadists and their sympathizers.
Second, to maintain their cover. These are not the obvious military personnel. They’re not exactly spies, but they do operate in unusual situations requiring them to blend in to a certain degree. They wear their hair longer than is the military norm and frequently dress in civilian clothing, often casually.
Deception is at the heart of what they do, and is at the heart of the very identity of the unit whose members stormed bin Laden’s compound.
The name of the SEAL team from which the small assault force came (25 of the unit’s 200 to 300 members took part) is officially classified, but it has been accurately reported for years as being the Naval Special Warfare Development Group, also known as DevGru. Which makes it sound like it is involved with testing and logistics.
The unit, as you know by now, is principally known by its original name of SEAL Team Six. Which itself was highly deceptive. At the time in which it formed — the aftermath of the disastrous attempt to rescue the American Embassy hostages in Iran in 1980 — it was only the third SEAL team. But it was designated as Team Six to throw off Soviet intelligence estimates of American special operations capability.
There’s another, more subtle, meaning. In military parlance, “Six,” among other things, refers to the commander. It also refers to one’s rear end, but that’s another matter.
And SEAL Team Six was intended from the beginning to be the leading edge SEAL unit, the Navy equivalent to the Army’s Delta Force — formally known as 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta — which suffered the debacle at Desert One in 1980 and prompted the Navy to try to one-up its traditional rival service. Recall the Army-Navy sports rivalry.
SEAL Team Six and Delta Force are Tier One special operations forces. That means that they are black elements which operate outside of the normal military chain of command, even for special forces, and are deployed only on the orders of the President of the United States, the Secretary of Defense, or the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They are part of Joint Special Operations Command, along with intelligence and aviation elements from the Army and Air Force.
What about the Green Berets and the rest of the Navy Seals and so on? They are all Tier Two special operations forces, so-called gray elements that function as part of each service’s special operations command and are part of the larger Special Operations Command. They include the Army’s Special Forces and Rangers, the Navy’s “other” SEAL teams and Special Boat units, the Marine Corps’ Force Recon units, and Air Force combat air controllers and other units.
Most of what the Tier One folks do is top secret and remains that way. But we do know that SEAL Team Six rescued Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and his family in the midst of a military coup and captured some of the biggest Bosnian war criminals.
And we know that Obama is developing some history with SEAL Team Six. This is the second famous mission on which he’s ordered them into action. It was SEAL Team Six commandos who, on his order, killed the Somali pirates holding the captain of the hijacked Maersk Alabama two years ago, ending a tense stand-off on the high seas.
SEAL Team Six, not surprisingly, frequently works very closely with the CIA. While CIA Director Leon Panetta was in overall charge of the mission to find and take down bin Laden, a charge that Obama gave him in early 2009, it was the head of Joint Special Operations Command, Vice Admiral William McRaven, who directed the mission from the base in Afghanistan.
McRaven is a product of the University of Texas, where he was on the track team and majored in journalism. No, that last is not a typo. But though he is a Texan, California can certainly lay some claim to him as well as to Panetta.
Like every Navy commando, McRaven received his SEAL training in Coronado, California, headquarters of the Naval Special Warfare Command. And McRaven followed his bachelor’s degree in journalism — I knew those degrees were good for something and, yes, I did not major in journalism — with a master’s degree in low-intensity conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. I believe he was the first graduate in that program, which he helped put together. His thesis served as the basis for his 1996 book, Spec Ops: Case Studies in Special Operations Warfare – Theory and Practice, in which he analyzes eight special operations missions carried out between 1940 and 1976 by British, German, Italian, and American units.
Just released behind-the-scenes footage shows President Barack Obama with the National Security Council shortly after the take-down of Osama bin Laden.
McRaven was the commander of SEAL Team Three, based in Coronado, at the time.
I knew I should have this background info available in one place for reference, and here it is.
Meanwhile, as US counter-terrorism operations show great success, US counter-insurgency operations show problems.
The Afghan Taliban staged day-long attacks today in Kandahar, besieging the governor’s compound and the offices of various security forces. Some of the cadre freed in last month’s massive prison break reportedly participated.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Libyan War, the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown will have no public events until the stitches are removed from his out-patient surgery for a common skin cancer. He will probably re-emerge sometime next week.
He continues working on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration. He will release the annual “May Revise” of his budget on May 16th.
Not much has been happening in his absence.
Some Republican leaders, for whom arithmetic is evidently not a strong suit, have seized on an uptick in revenues as a sign that tax extensions aren’t necessary.
Presumably their deregulationist approach to the economy isn’t necessary, either, by their “reasoning.”
And some Democratic leaders have issued some rather hollow threats about targeting budget cuts in Republican districts.
** CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.California Democrats gathered this past weekend in Sacramento for their annual party convention were in a rather curious mood. They’ve gotten what they wanted. But they have mixed feelings about what they’ve ended up with.
Like their Republican counterparts who gathered in convention less than a month-and-a-half earlier in the same place, the Democratic activists and various party and interest group leaders, lobbyists, consultants, and politicians are more from the true believing side of things than most voters, even of their own respective parties. But the Democrats didn’t have the bursts of strangeness that the Republicans had. Sweeping last November’s elections, even as the rest of the country bled red, was very gratifying. But given the state’s budget woes, there’s little for activists to celebrate in terms of programmatic accomplishment. … From my May 2nd feature.
** OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD.President Barack Obama has no shortage of nasty critics at home, including the present gong show known as the Republican presidential field. But despite them and what was already an uneven economic recovery, his biggest problems still lie abroad.
Obama has a multi-dimensional obstacle course to pick his way through when it comes to geopolitics. But this becomes his domestic political problem when it is boiled down — or perhaps better put — refined into one word: Oil.
Here’s the general equation on oil: More chaos and conflict equals higher prices. Higher oil prices and higher gasoline prices equals economic trouble and political trouble. … From my April 29th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
No, I have not forgotten the Charlie Sheen connection. In this scene from the classic Navy Seals, President Jed Bartlet’s son expresses his displeasure about President David Palmer’s impending nuptials in a jeep driven by their team leader, Kyle Reese.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $97.18 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
Crude oil has dropped by 15% since the killing of Osama bin Laden, with a deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.
This is up about $63 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Crude oil has gone sharply downward since the death of Osama bin Laden, eliminating part of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama addressed the 101st Airborne Division today at Fort Campbell, Kentucky after meeting privately with the special operations team that took down Osama bin Laden.
** QUICK HITS. Before addressing the 101st Airborne Division, President Barack Obama met privately with the Navy Seals and Army helicopter pilots who executed the take-down of Osama bin Laden, awarding the Presidential Unit Citation, the highest unit award in the U.S. Armed Forces to them and their units (Navy SEAL Team Six, 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, and Joint Special Operations Command). Personal decorations will come as well, in secret. … Crude oil closed well under $100 per barrel today, having dropped 15% since the death of bin Laden, removing part of the geopolitical risk premium from the price. … Moving from the sublime to the ridiculous, California Assembly Minority Leader Connie Conway told the LA Times today that the uptick in state revenues means there is no need for tax extensions and that her caucus would never support cuts to education. She also declined to say what she would cut, as usual, even though her numbers simply don’t add up. At all. Having met Conway, this sort of non-serious stuff surprises me not in the least.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … IN THE SHADOW OF BIN LADEN: REPUBLICANS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.
>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST
At 9:15 AM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers remarks at Alliance Transmission headquarters in Indianapolis. At 12:55 PM Pacific, he delivers remarks to the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.
Intelligence gathered from Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan indicates that the Al Qaeda founder, contrary to belief when it was thought he was stuck in a cave, was very involved in planning terrorist attacks, including a potential attack on American rail lines to celebrate the 10th anniversary of 9/11.
** NEW POLL: REPUBLICAN ISSUE MATRIX CHANGING. In what may signal a shift in the issue environment of the Republican presidential race, a Gallup Poll taken just before the take-down of Osama bin Laden shows that “Business and the economy” now matches “Government spending and power” as the top issue area among Republican voters.
“National security and foreign policy” was only chosen by one-third as many voters. That may be changing, of course.
For one thing, the bin Laden mission heightens issue awareness. For another, the first 15 minutes of last night’s debate were on, yes, national security and foreign policy.
This change, if it persists, may help more pragmatic Republican contenders and take some of the anti-government fire out of the primaries.
Given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities. …
The latest results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-20, before the U.S. military actions in Pakistan that resulted in Osama bin Laden’s death. Republicans in the April survey were least likely to choose national security and foreign policy as their top issue. This could change as a result of the recent events. …
Republicans in all major demographic and regional subgroups prioritize either government spending and power or business and the economy as their top political issues, based on an aggregated sample of more than 3,300 interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents conducted in February, March, and April. …
** CALIFORNIA 2011: BROWN ADMINISTRATION LOOKS ASKANCE ON NO-NEED-TO-ACT REPUBLICANS. In an item yesterday, I pointed out the similarity between California Republican legislators this year saying that a significant uptick in revenues means there is no need for tax extensions and Democratic legislators last year who put off budget cuts on the express theory that things were about to get better.
Both relied on the manna from heaven theory of politics, and both are wrong.
Governor Jerry Brown’s state director of finance, Ana Matosantos, issued a statement today about this. She also revealed officially when the annual “May Revise” of the state budget will be released. It’s May 16th.
Here’s here statement: “While tax receipts are currently running higher than projections, this should in no way be taken to mean that we can ease up on our efforts to close the remaining budget gap.
“Changes in our cash receipts aren’t the only issue that drive the size of our budget gap. We have to account for lost savings based on the timing of the Legislature’s actions to-date on the Governor’s January proposal. If there are more Californians projected to be enrolled in our schools or our health care programs, and if there are more inmates projected in our prison system, that will drive costs up. And in addition, roughly 40 percent of additional revenues will be controlled by Proposition 98. The state faces multi-billion-dollar budget shortfalls in each of the next three fiscal years unless we adopt ongoing solutions that control state government costs and put the state on a path to long-term structural balance.
“Working with Governor Brown, the Department of Finance is updating the entire budget, not only on the revenue side but on the cost side as well, and the Governor will present a revised and balanced budget on May 16.”
President Barack Obama participated in a wreath laying ceremony yesterday at Ground Zero in New York City.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Indiana, and Kentucky.
Obama received the daily intelligence and economic briefing in the Oval Office.
He then departed the White House and flew on Air Force One to Indianapolis, Indiana.
At 8:55 AM Pacific, Obama tours Allison Transmission headquarters in Indianapolis.
At 9:15 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks to workers at Allison Transmission headquarters.
Allison is developing a new transmission to deliver much greater fuel efficiency.
The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.
You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 10:30 AM Pacific, Obama departs Indianapolis on Air Force One en route to Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
At 11:25 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
Obama then meets privately with members of Navy SEAL Team Six who carried out the Osama bin Laden mission. Obama will be joined by Vice President Joe Biden.
Obama is developing some history with SEAL Team Six. This is the second famous mission on which he’s ordered them into action. It was SEAL Team Six commandos who, on his order, killed the Somali pirates holding the captain of the hijacked Maersk Alabama two years ago, ending a tense stand-off on the high seas.
At 12:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks to service members, principally from the Army’s 101st Airborne Division, who have recently returned from deployment, with Biden in attendance.
The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.
You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.
At 1:40 PM Pacific, Obama departs Fort Campbell on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 3:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
Obama received good news this morning with over a quarter of a million jobs added last month in the private sector, the strongest month of job growth in five years.
This is the third consecutive month in which more than 200,000 jobs have been created.
Retail sales are also up.
All of which is striking given the steep climb in gasoline prices.
Notably, the price of crude oil dropped below $100 per barrel late yesterday. Oil has dropped by 12% since the death of Osama bin Laden, wringing some of the geopolitical risk premium out of the price.
In the aftermath of yesterday’s Libya Contact Group summit in Rome, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other top officials are working on unfreezing some of the tens of billions in seized Gaddafi regime assets to fund the Libyan rebels. Meanwhile, about $250 million has been raised from participating governments to provide badly needed aid.
Today Clinton is in Rome for the Food and Agriculture Organization meeting on rising food prices around the world.
Al Qaeda acknowledges the death of Osama bin Laden and vows revenge.
Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.
In Japan today, Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered the shutdown of three nuclear reactors in the central Japan until extensive safety renovations can be instituted to guard them against earthquake.
The first Republican presidential debate took place last night in South Carolina on Fox News, in the shadow of bin Laden. Only half the prospective field took part: Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Herman Cain.
It was distinctly underwhelming.
I’ll have more, but not all that much more.
War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.
** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento today.
He has no scheduled public events.
Brown will have no public events until the stitches are removed from his out-patient surgery for a common skin cancer.
He continues working on California’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.
** CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.California Democrats gathered this past weekend in Sacramento for their annual party convention were in a rather curious mood. They’ve gotten what they wanted. But they have mixed feelings about what they’ve ended up with.
Like their Republican counterparts who gathered in convention less than a month-and-a-half earlier in the same place, the Democratic activists and various party and interest group leaders, lobbyists, consultants, and politicians are more from the true believing side of things than most voters, even of their own respective parties. But the Democrats didn’t have the bursts of strangeness that the Republicans had. Sweeping last November’s elections, even as the rest of the country bled red, was very gratifying. But given the state’s budget woes, there’s little for activists to celebrate in terms of programmatic accomplishment. … From my May 2nd feature.
** OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD.President Barack Obama has no shortage of nasty critics at home, including the present gong show known as the Republican presidential field. But despite them and what was already an uneven economic recovery, his biggest problems still lie abroad.
Obama has a multi-dimensional obstacle course to pick his way through when it comes to geopolitics. But this becomes his domestic political problem when it is boiled down — or perhaps better put — refined into one word: Oil.
Here’s the general equation on oil: More chaos and conflict equals higher prices. Higher oil prices and higher gasoline prices equals economic trouble and political trouble. … From my April 29th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
Well, with everything going on, I missed the 50th anniversary of the first American in space. On May 5th, 1961, Navy Commander Alan Shepard flew Freedom 7, the first Mercury mission, into space for a sub-orbital flight, following Russian Yuri Gagarin’s flight less than a month before. 10 years later, Shepard commanded Apollo 14 and became the fifth man to walk on the moon, retiring three years later as a rear admiral.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading just under $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
Crude oil has dropped by 12% since the killing of Osama bin Laden, with a deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.
This is up about $66 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Crude oil has gone sharply downward since the death of Osama bin Laden, eliminating part of the geopolitical risk premium built into the price.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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