April 30th, 2011

Weekend Edition


Late Sunday night, President Barack Obama announced that a U.S. special operations force cornered and killed Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden during a shoot-out in a mansion in Pakistan.

** PLAUDITS BEGIN POURING IN FOR OBAMA-ORDERED SPECIAL GROUND OPERATION THAT BAGGED OSAMA BIN LADEN. Congratulations are beginning to pour in for the U.S. special operation that today resulted in the death of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden today in a resort city just 90 minutes, some 60 kilometers, outside the capital of Pakistan.

In a speech late this evening, which was delayed for an hour and reportedly written by President Barack Obama himself, the president revealed that he had received a briefing last August that credible intelligence existed on the whereabouts and living arrangements of bin Laden. He said that CIA Director Leon Panetta was in overall charge of the project. Obama ordered the operation as a go mission early this weekend.

The president said in his address that bin Laden was killed in a firefight with U.S. special operations forces and that his body has been retrieved.

Reports indicate that the operation was carried out on the ground by a Navy SEAL team inserted by helicopter. The team is part of the Joint Special Operations Command, whose commander is Vice Admiral William McRaven.

Former President Bill Clinton said this in a statement tonight: “This is a profoundly important moment not just for the families of those who lost their lives on 9/11 and in al-Qaida’s other attacks but for people all over the world who want to build a common future of peace, freedom, and cooperation for our children.

“I congratulate the President, the National Security team and the members of our armed forces on bringing Osama bin Laden to justice after more than a decade of murderous al-Qaida attacks.”

REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT ON OSAMA BIN LADEN
East Room
11:35 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Good evening. Tonight, I can report to the American people and to the world that the United States has conducted an operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, and a terrorist who’s responsible for the murder of thousands of innocent men, women, and children.

It was nearly 10 years ago that a bright September day was darkened by the worst attack on the American people in our history. The images of 9/11 are seared into our national memory — hijacked planes cutting through a cloudless September sky; the Twin Towers collapsing to the ground; black smoke billowing up from the Pentagon; the wreckage of Flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, where the actions of heroic citizens saved even more heartbreak and destruction.

And yet we know that the worst images are those that were unseen to the world. The empty seat at the dinner table. Children who were forced to grow up without their mother or their father. Parents who would never know the feeling of their child’s embrace. Nearly 3,000 citizens taken from us, leaving a gaping hole in our hearts.

On September 11, 2001, in our time of grief, the American people came together. We offered our neighbors a hand, and we offered the wounded our blood. We reaffirmed our ties to each other, and our love of community and country. On that day, no matter where we came from, what God we prayed to, or what race or ethnicity we were, we were united as one American family.

We were also united in our resolve to protect our nation and to bring those who committed this vicious attack to justice. We quickly learned that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by al Qaeda — an organization headed by Osama bin Laden, which had openly declared war on the United States and was committed to killing innocents in our country and around the globe. And so we went to war against al Qaeda to protect our citizens, our friends, and our allies.

Over the last 10 years, thanks to the tireless and heroic work of our military and our counterterrorism professionals, we’ve made great strides in that effort. We’ve disrupted terrorist attacks and strengthened our homeland defense. In Afghanistan, we removed the Taliban government, which had given bin Laden and al Qaeda safe haven and support. And around the globe, we worked with our friends and allies to capture or kill scores of al Qaeda terrorists, including several who were a part of the 9/11 plot.

Yet Osama bin Laden avoided capture and escaped across the Afghan border into Pakistan. Meanwhile, al Qaeda continued to operate from along that border and operate through its affiliates across the world.

And so shortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta, the director of the CIA, to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network.

Then, last August, after years of painstaking work by our intelligence community, I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden. It was far from certain, and it took many months to run this thread to ground. I met repeatedly with my national security team as we developed more information about the possibility that we had located bin Laden hiding within a compound deep inside of Pakistan.

And finally, last week, I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action, and authorized an operation to get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice.

Today, at my direction, the United States launched a targeted operation against that compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. A small team of Americans carried out the operation with extraordinary courage and capability. No Americans were harmed. They took care to avoid civilian casualties. After a firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body.

For over two decades, bin Laden has been al Qaeda’s leader and symbol, and has continued to plot attacks against our country and our friends and allies. The death of bin Laden marks the most significant achievement to date in our nation’s effort to defeat al Qaeda.

Yet his death does not mark the end of our effort. There’s no doubt that al Qaeda will continue to pursue attacks against us. We must –- and we will — remain vigilant at home and abroad.

As we do, we must also reaffirm that the United States is not –- and never will be -– at war with Islam. I’ve made clear, just as President Bush did shortly after 9/11, that our war is not against Islam. Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader; he was a mass murderer of Muslims. Indeed, al Qaeda has slaughtered scores of Muslims in many countries, including our own. So his demise should be welcomed by all who believe in peace and human dignity.

Over the years, I’ve repeatedly made clear that we would take action within Pakistan if we knew where bin Laden was. That is what we’ve done. But it’s important to note that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound where he was hiding. Indeed, bin Laden had declared war against Pakistan as well, and ordered attacks against the Pakistani people.

Tonight, I called President Zardari, and my team has also spoken with their Pakistani counterparts. They agree that this is a good and historic day for both of our nations. And going forward, it is essential that Pakistan continue to join us in the fight against al Qaeda and its affiliates.

The American people did not choose this fight. It came to our shores, and started with the senseless slaughter of our citizens. After nearly 10 years of service, struggle, and sacrifice, we know well the costs of war. These efforts weigh on me every time I, as Commander-in-Chief, have to sign a letter to a family that has lost a loved one, or look into the eyes of a service member who’s been gravely wounded.

So Americans understand the costs of war. Yet as a country, we will never tolerate our security being threatened, nor stand idly by when our people have been killed. We will be relentless in defense of our citizens and our friends and allies. We will be true to the values that make us who we are. And on nights like this one, we can say to those families who have lost loved ones to al Qaeda’s terror: Justice has been done.

Tonight, we give thanks to the countless intelligence and counterterrorism professionals who’ve worked tirelessly to achieve this outcome. The American people do not see their work, nor know their names. But tonight, they feel the satisfaction of their work and the result of their pursuit of justice.

We give thanks for the men who carried out this operation, for they exemplify the professionalism, patriotism, and unparalleled courage of those who serve our country. And they are part of a generation that has borne the heaviest share of the burden since that September day.

Finally, let me say to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11 that we have never forgotten your loss, nor wavered in our commitment to see that we do whatever it takes to prevent another attack on our shores.

And tonight, let us think back to the sense of unity that prevailed on 9/11. I know that it has, at times, frayed. Yet today’s achievement is a testament to the greatness of our country and the determination of the American people.

The cause of securing our country is not complete. But tonight, we are once again reminded that America can do whatever we set our mind to. That is the story of our history, whether it’s the pursuit of prosperity for our people, or the struggle for equality for all our citizens; our commitment to stand up for our values abroad, and our sacrifices to make the world a safer place.

Let us remember that we can do these things not just because of wealth or power, but because of who we are: one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

Thank you. May God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.
END 11:44 P.M. EDT

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 7:30 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers a surprise late Sunday night statement from the White House. The event is netcast live here on New West Notes.

FURTHER UPDATE — OSAMA BIN LADEN REPORTEDLY DEAD. Reports are spreading that President Obama will announce the death of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

OBAMA SCHEDULE UPDATE. At around 7 PM Pacific, the White House announced that President Barack Obama will address the nation at 7:30 PM Pacific from the White House. The topic was not announced.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


In his Saturday night appearance at the White House Correspondents Dinner, President Barack Obama made a big joke of birtherism and repeatedly skewered an in-the-house Donald Trump. And presented his co-star in a reimagining of The King’s Speech, Vice President Joe Biden.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS: AN UNCERTAIN TRUMPET.

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

He has received the daily intelligence briefing in the Oval Office.

Obama has no scheduled public events.

Obama had a rip-roaring time last night at the White House Correspondents Dinner, where he turned conspiracy theories about himself into the preposterous joke that they are.

On Donald Trump, who foolishly was sitting a table about hundred feet away: “I know he’s taken some flak lately, but no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than The Donald. And that’s because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter, like: Did we fake the moon landing? What really happened in Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac?”

But elsewhere, things aren’t so jolly for the president.

For starters, Space Shuttle Endeavour will not be ready for launch on Monday. The delay from the much-anticipated final launch of the spacecraft last Friday, occasioned by a faulty circuit, will last at least until this coming Friday.

Last night in Libya, a NATO air strike reportedly hit one of the residences of the Gaddafi family in Tripoli. According to multiple reports, Gaddafi’s youngest son, Seif al-Arab Gaddafi, was killed along with three of Gaddafi’s grandchildren. Gaddafi himself reportedly escaped harm.

This came not long after NATO rejected Gaddafi’s desperate sounding plea for negotiations and a ceasefire.

In Yemen’s governance crisis, there was a major setback as longtime President Ali Adbullah Saleh refused to come to the Saudi capital of Riyadh to sign the Gulf Cooperation Council-brokered deal for his exit from power.

Saleh said he would send a top aide, and would sign himself later after the process moved along. My guess is he thinks he won’t be able to return to Yemen if he goes to Riyadh.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events.

Brown canceled his scheduled address to today’s California Democratic Party convention in Sacramento.

On Friday, Brown underwent an outpatient procedure to remove a small basal cell cancer growth from his nose, which led to some slight reconstructive surgery. Brown will not appear in public until the stitches are removed. That might be in a week.

This is a very common procedure for a form of cancer which routinely does not metastasize. Brown’s office in its statement said all the cancer cells were removed.

Brown’s cancellation places something of a damper on an already somewhat curious convention.

Democrats are celebrating their big wins in last November’s elections. But they are frustrated by the need for sharp state budget cuts and by a gridlocked system in which it has not yet been possible to raise the needed revenues to avert truly draconian cuts.

Yesterday the convention saw rising stars like Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris deliver well-received speeches, as well as a tepidly received luncheon address from Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is still unopposed in her re-election campaign next year. To gain the approval of the crowd — many Democratic activists are very unhappy with Feinstein, who is routinely described in the press as by far California’s most popular politician but in reality has only a 41-39 job approval split in the latest USC/LA Times poll — Feinstein delivered a lengthy disquisition on the threat of the Tea Party. Which she pledged to turn back.

Then there was the stem-winding convention keynote address by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a speech largely ignored by the much diminished state press corps in their brief stories, but very telling about the mood of delegates.

Sanders, the only avowed socialist in the history of the U.S. Senate and a registered independent, received a rapturous response from the crowd Saturday afternoon. He repeatedly inveighed against record levels of wealth and income inequality in the U.S., declared America to be an “oligarchy,” and called for a wide array of social democratic and socialist programs.

I’ll have a full report on the convention.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.


In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama, noting high gas prices and massive oil industry profits, renewed his call to end the $4 billion-per-year subsidies for oil and gas companies and invest in clean energy.

** OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD. President Barack Obama has no shortage of nasty critics at home, including the present gong show known as the Republican presidential field. But despite them and what was already an uneven economic recovery, his biggest problems still lie abroad.

Obama has a multi-dimensional obstacle course to pick his way through when it comes to geopolitics. But this becomes his domestic political problem when it is boiled down — or perhaps better put — refined into one word: Oil.

Here’s the general equation on oil: More chaos and conflict equals higher prices. Higher oil prices and higher gasoline prices equals economic trouble and political trouble.

Economists have just noted that incomes generally rose in March, leading to higher spending. But too much of that money went to pay for more expensive gasoline. And for food made more expensive by higher energy costs.

As I pointed out here a month-and-a-half ago, Obama’s domestic prospects were in a decided upswing with key economic measures ascending. And just a few days ago, an Associated Press survey of leading economists found increasing confidence in economic recovery. The only thing they could see stopping it is a new oil shock.

But a return to recession isn’t needed to make very big trouble for Obama’s re-election prospects. There may or may not be a big oil shock, but we’re already seeing the impact of higher oil and gasoline prices on economic confidence. People are feeling it every time they go, or contemplate going, to the gas station.

From my April 29th essay.


Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi says he wants to negotiate with NATO.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Today is the 36th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War. North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces took the South Vietnamese capital of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City) as the last Americans were evacuated from the U.S. Embassy via helicopter from the rooftop.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefing and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

Tonight he and First Lady Michelle Obama attend the annual White House Correspondents Association dinner at the Washington Hilton.

The red carpet, incidentally, begins at 3:45 PM Pacific.

Red carpet? At a journalists’ dinner?

The White House Correspondents Dinner has become one of the bloated events of the era.

Back in the serious world …

In Libya, longtime Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi has finally resurfaced since the air strike on his compound in Tripoli. He spoke for an hour and a half on Libyan state TV, calling for negotiations and a ceasefire with NATO.

Of course, he’s declared repeated ceasefires and immediately broken them with attacks on his fellow countrymen.

What he really wants is for people to stop shooting at him.

Gaddafi made this move in the wake of the discovery that his forces were trying to mine the approaches to Misurata harbor in a bid to block the flow of humanitarian aid to Libya’s third largest city. Which fell to the pro-democracy forces very early on and which he has been shelling and rocketing ever since.

Incidentally, the tribes that Gaddafi regime spokesmen said at the beginning of the week would intervene militarily against the rebels have still not emerged. It’s safe to say that’s not happening.

Various parties to the departure deal for longtime Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh brokered by Gulf Arab states are to sign this weekend. But protests continue, calling for his immediate departure and no immunity from prosecution. In fact, yesterday saw the biggest demonstrations yet.

In Syria, demonstrations continue as does the bloody crackdown by President Hafez Assad’s regime. The US has now levied sanctions against the Syrian government. And, following the refusal of the UN Security Council late Wednesday to condemn the Syrian regime, the UN Human Rights Council unanimously voted to censure Syria yesterday.

Syria’s pending membership (yes!) on the UN Human Rights Council is not looking good.

Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

UPDATE: GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN HAS CANCELED HIS STATE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION APPEARANCE FOLLOWING A CANCER PROCEDURE. On Friday, Brown underwent an outpatient procedure to remove a small basal cell cancer growth from his nose, which led to some slight reconstructive surgery. Brown will not appear in public until the stitches are removed.

This is a very common procedure, and I’ll get into it more tomorrow.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown will address the California Democratic Party convention on Sunday in Sacramento.

A few convention parties last night, with Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, who established himself a few years ago as the partymeister of Demo conventions, throwing the biggest with another musical guest. I have a couple of funny stories in this regard, which I’ll get into later.

Today Senator Dianne Feinstein addresses the convention luncheon, and former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich, now a UC Berkeley professor, addresses the convention banquet.

In between, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders delivers the convention keynote address.

Brown is getting a boost this weekend as a coalition called Stand Up for California — comprised of educators, public employees, and community leaders — launches a grassroots effort in targeted Republican legislative districts to pry loose a few votes for his compromise budget plan.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED? Has California’s big reform moment arrived? It sure seems as though it should have.

Governor Jerry Brown came into office having won in a landslide over the biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, that of billionaire Meg Whitman. He set about forging a compromise solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis, pairing big budget cuts with extensions of temporary taxes that many voters don’t even know they pay. He spent months getting to know the legislators of both parties and negotiating with them, with a special emphasis on Republicans who complained that they had been ignored by Brown’s predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But he still only has half a budget deal. Even though the chronic crisis is still more glaring than before.

California state government is mired in dysfunctionality, and has been for years. The great global recession simply exacerbated the situation. It functions moderately well when times are good, though long-range planning has been most notable by its absence even then. When times are not good, well, here we are.From my April 26th column.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG).From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


The second part of Doctor Who‘s season premiere airs Saturday in the UK, US, and other international markets. Here are 11 key technologies employed by the Doctor, only a few of which are now aiding President Nixon in 1969 America.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $113.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $80 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


Making quite the spectacle of himself in Las Vegas, developer Donald Trump, the leader for the Republican presidential nomination in most national polls, unleashed a profanity-laden tirade in a speech last night at the Treasure Island casino on the Vegas Strip and, in an interview, said he’d heard that President Barack Obama was a bad student who must have benefited from affirmative action in getting into Columbia University and Harvard Law School (where Obama was head of the law review). Can you say “Meltdown?”

** QUICK HITS.
A new wrinkle in the Libyan War, with the Gaddafi regime openly threatening to block humanitarian assistance coming by sea to Misurata after being caught laying anti-ship mines. … A federal appellate court today rejected a lawsuit by the Chamber of Commerce and the national auto dealers association seeking to invalidate California’s law cutting greenhouse gas emissions. … The State of California put out revised population figures today. California at the beginning of the year had a population of 37.5 million, an increase of nearly 300,000 from the previous year, and a slightly lower overall estimate more in line with federal Census data. … Governor Jerry Brown today appointed retired Major General Peter Gravett, a Republican, as California’s secretary of veterans affairs.

** NEW POLL: LEST WE THINK IT’S JUST IGNORANT CALIFORNIANS WHO DON’T GET IT. By now, many readers are all too familiar with the dreadful lack of information underlying the attitudes of Californians toward their state government. And, in particular, the state’s chronic budget crisis.

But I’ve always thought that if Arnold Schwarzenegger had the powers of the treasury that an American president has, he would be the most popular governor in history.

However, a California governor has to actually balance a state budget, and can’t run gigantic deficits on the strength of printing money and borrowing it. Or, at least, produce an arguable semblance of a balanced budget.

Now attention has turned, again, to federal budget deficits. Which became massive under the Bush/Cheney Administration — as it ran two wars, instituted a huge tax cut, and produced a big prescription drugs program, all of it unfunded — and has become more massive under the Obama Administration, which had to bail out the economy after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

And what do the American people know of the realities of federal budgeting? If anything, even less than California voters. Though the latter may finally be wising up.

A new Gallup Poll shows that most Americans say that wasteful spending is the cause of big federal deficits. And that, stop me if you’ve heard this before — way back behind on the California learning curve — that a plurality wants the deficit eliminated by an all or almost all cuts budget. Which simply doesn’t work.

The large majority of Americans say spending too much money on unneeded or wasteful federal programs is to blame for the federal budget deficit, while 22% say the deficit is a consequence of not raising enough in taxes to pay for needed programs. …

These results are based on an April 20-23 USA Today/Gallup poll. Given a forced choice, Republicans almost uniformly place blame for the deficit on too much federal spending, rather than a shortage of tax revenue. Majorities of independents and Democrats agree, albeit by somewhat smaller margins.

Accordingly, Americans generally favor spending cuts rather than tax increases as the way for Congress to reduce the deficit going forward. …

This question asks Americans to choose among five ways of reducing the federal deficit, ranging from a total reliance on spending cuts to a total reliance on tax increases. The responses cluster at the “spending cuts” end of the spectrum. About half (48%) of Americans say reducing the deficit should be done mostly or only with spending cuts. Another 37% say it should be done equally with spending cuts and tax increases. Eleven percent say mostly or only with tax increases.

Thus, overall, 85% of Americans explicitly favor spending cuts as at least part of the solution to reducing the federal deficit, with more than half of these favoring only or mostly using cuts. This compares with 48% who explicitly favor tax increases as at least part of a deficit reduction strategy — a number consisting mostly of those who want an equal emphasis on spending cuts and tax increases.

The major partisan distinctions in response to this question reflect the choice between mostly/only spending cuts versus the equal use of spending cuts and tax increases. Republicans are most likely to favor the former; Democrats, the latter. Independents’ views are between these two extremes. Relatively few Americans of any partisan identification favor mostly or only using tax increases to reduce the deficit.

Implications

Given a choice, Americans of all political persuasions are more likely to say that too much wasteful and unneeded government spending is the cause of the federal budget deficit, rather than too little tax revenue. Americans of all political persuasions also say cutting back on federal spending should be a major focus of efforts to reduce the deficit going forward.

Still, some emphasis on tax increases is part of the solution for almost half of Americans. Thus, it appears Americans would most likely tell their elected representatives to attack the federal deficit primarily using spending cuts, but with a secondary reliance on raising tax revenue.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 3:55 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama delivers the commencement address at Miamia Dade College in Miami, Florida. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


Stream videos at Ustream
Space Shuttle Endeavour awaits its Friday afternoon launch at 12:47 PM Pacific from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center. You can click on the button to watch the live shot of the spacecraft and various preparations prior to the lift-off sequence.

UPDATE: ENDEAVOUR LAUNCH SCRUBBED UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. Well, this is disappointing. NASA has scrubbed the final launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour until Monday at the earliest after discovering at mid-day that a heater circuit on one of the spacecraft’s auxiliary power units had failed.

The earliest that Endeavour will now take off is 11:33 AM Pacific on Monday.

NASA will hold a press conference about the delay at 1 PM Pacific.

** LIVE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL.

The final launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavour will be netcast live on Friday here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

This is the penultimate voyage of the space shuttle program, and of course the last flight of Endeavour, which will, following this mission to the International Space Station, find its final home at the California Science Center in Los Angeles.

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, badly wounded in a January assassination attempt in Tucson, Arizona, will be on hand Friday to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, skipper Endeavour as it flies into space on its final mission.

Also on hand will be President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, and their daughters, Malia and Sasha.


The final voyage of the Space Shuttle Endeavour begins today. Following its retirement, the spacecraft will be housed at the California Science Center in Los Angeles.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Alabama, and Florida.

Obama has a jampacked day.

At 5 AM Pacific, he met with participants in the 1968 Memphis Sanitation Strike in the Diplomatic Room.

These black sanitation workers went on strike after years of discrimination, bad conditions and poor pay. It was in their support that Rev. Martin Luther King came to Memphis, where he was assassinated on April 4th, 1968.

Obama and the rest of the First Family then departed for Andrews Air Force Base, where they flew on Air Force One to Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Shortly after arrival, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama viewed the tornado damage and met with Alabama Governor Robert Bentley, state and local officials, and families affected by the storms

At 8:45 AM Pacific, the Obamas depart Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Air Force One en route to Cape Canaveral, Florida.

At 10:10 AM Pacific, the Obamas arrive in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

At 11:45 AM Pacific, the Obamas tour the orbiter processing facility at Cape Canaveral.

At 12:30 PM Pacific, the Obamas view the launch of the space shuttle Endeavour from Launch Control Center at the Kennedy Space Center.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 2:45 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Miami, Florida

At 3:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers the Miami Dade College commencement address in Miami.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

At 6:05 PM Pacific, Obama departs Miami on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.

At 8:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.

At 8:30 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.


Storm chasers captured footage of the tornado that leveled Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Obama officially reshuffled his top national security team yesterday. The appointments, which I’ve discussed at some length this week, have been generally well-received on both sides of the aisle.

In Libya, longtime Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi has not surfaced since the air strike on his compound in Tripoli, though spokesmen say he is alive and well. NATO air strikes have intensified in recent days.

Most of long besieged Misurata seems to have been cleared of Gaddafi troops, though rocket attacks and artillery shelling continue. The tribes that Gaddafi regime spokesmen said would intervene militarily against the rebels have still not emerged.

What has emerged is a renewed attempt to move Gaddafi troops back into the city, which the rebels are working to repulse with some aid from air strikes.

Various parties to the departure deal for longtime Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh brokered by Gulf Arab states are to sign this weekend. But protests continue, calling for his immediate departure and no immunity from prosecution.

Analysis and reaction are still underway with regard to the surprise alliance between Fatah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Israel is of course very opposed, saying it undermines the peace process.

But there has been no meaningful peace process for years.

In Syria, demonstrations continue as does the bloody crackdown by President Hafez Assad’s regime. The US is now considering sanctions against the Syrian government. But the UN Security Council late Wednesday declined to condemn the Syrian regime.

Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.


President Barack Obama yesterday unveiled his new appointees for top national security posts.

Incidentally, Americans for Prosperity hosts the first Republican presidential forum tonight in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Those prospective candidates onhand include former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, talk radio host Herman Cain, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former Pennslyvania Senator Rick Santorum.

I recall Santorum giving a recent speech in which he attacked Obama for not continuing the historic American mission of confronting “godless socialism” around the world.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Ron Paul are in early presidential caucus state Nevada.

Paul spoke in Reno last night, giving his standard libertarian spiel.

And Trump spoke in Las Vegas, at the Treasure Island casino. He reportedly peppered his speech with “Fu–ing” this and that, with even more bluster than usual. I wonder if he had mistaken the cocktail hour.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown will address the California Democratic Party convention on Sunday in Sacramento.

Yesterday he repeated familiar messages about his compromise plan to solve the state’s chronic budget crisis in speeches to the annual state PTA convention in Long Beach and at the annual awards dinner of the Pat Brown Institute in downtown LA.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED? Has California’s big reform moment arrived? It sure seems as though it should have.

Governor Jerry Brown came into office having won in a landslide over the biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, that of billionaire Meg Whitman. He set about forging a compromise solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis, pairing big budget cuts with extensions of temporary taxes that many voters don’t even know they pay. He spent months getting to know the legislators of both parties and negotiating with them, with a special emphasis on Republicans who complained that they had been ignored by Brown’s predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But he still only has half a budget deal. Even though the chronic crisis is still more glaring than before.

California state government is mired in dysfunctionality, and has been for years. The great global recession simply exacerbated the situation. It functions moderately well when times are good, though long-range planning has been most notable by its absence even then. When times are not good, well, here we are.From my April 26th column.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG).From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


Britain’s ITN News sets the mythic arc of the latest royal wedding to the music of San Francisco’s Journey. The lyric about “Just a city boy, born and raised in south Detroit” is more than a bit incongruous attached to the prince.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $113 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $79 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


Stream videos at Ustream
Space Shuttle Endeavour awaits its Friday afternoon launch at 12:47 PM Pacific from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. You can click on the button to watch the live shot of the spacecraft on the launch pad.

** LIVE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL.

The final launch of the Space Shuttle Endeavour will be netcast live on Friday here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

This is the penultimate voyage of the space shuttle program, and of course the last flight of Endeavour, which will, following this mission to the International Space Station, find its final home at the California Science Center in Los Angeles.

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, badly wounded in a January assassination attempt in Tucson, Arizona, will be on hand Friday to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, skipper Endeavour as it flies into space on its final mission.

Also on hand will be President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, and their daughters, Malia and Sasha.


Live Video streaming by Ustream
The Royal Wedding, about which you may have heard one or two things of late, awaits its own very early morning launch, with the ceremony scheduled to begin on Friday at 3 AM Pacific.

** LIVE FROM LONDON. The royal wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton will be netcast live early Friday here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

It will all take place very, very early Friday morning. London time is eight hours ahead of Pacific time.

NWN has paid essentially no attention, aside from an occasional waggish aside, to the event until today. But if you are interested, and a great many are, well, here ’tis.

The following schedule of Royal Wedding events is in Eastern Standard Time. I repeat, this schedule is in Eastern time, three hours ahead of Pacific time. The actual ceremony will begin at 3 AM Pacific time. The schedule was provided by the British Embassy.

3:00 a.m. – 4:00 a.m. — The morning of April 29 will start with an announcement from the Queen’s office stating the titles that Prince William and Kate Middleton will take.

3:15 a.m. — General wedding guests will start showing up at Westminster Abbey. These guests will enter the church through the Great North Door.

4:50 a.m. — VIPs, such as Governors-General and Prime Ministers of Countries under the Commonwealth of England, Diplomatic Corps, and distinguished guests, arrive at Westminster Abbey. They will enter the church through the West Door.

5:10 a.m. — Prince William and best man, Prince Harry, depart Clarence House.

5:15 a.m. — Prince William and Prince Harry arrive at Westminster Abbey.

5:20 a.m. — Members of foreign royal families, including Prince Albert of Monaco and Prince Felipe and Princess Letizia of Spain, arrive at the church.

5:20 a.m. — Kate’s mother Carole Middleton and brother James Middleton, depart the Goring Hotel.

5:27 a.m. — Carole and James Middleton arrive at Westminster Abbey.

5:30 a.m. — Members of the Royal Family begin arriving at the Abbey.

5:38 a.m. — Father of the groom, Prince Charles and his wife, Camilla, depart Clarence House.

5:40 a.m. — Prince Andrew (uncle of the groom) and his daughters Beatrice and Eugenie; Princess Anne (aunt of the groom), and her husband; Prince Edward (uncle of the groom) and his wife, arrive at Westminster Abbey and enter church through the West Door.

5:40 a.m. — Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip depart Buckingham Palace.

5:40 a.m. — Prince William and Prince Harry will move into St. Edmunds Chapel until moments before the royal wedding begins.

5:42 a.m. — Prince Charles and Camilla arrive at the Abbey.

5:45 a.m. — Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip are the last guests to arrive at Westminster Abbey.

5:48 a.m. — Kate’s bridesmaids and William’s pageboys depart the Goring Hotel.

5:51 a.m. — Kate Middleton, accompanied by her father, will depart the Goring Hotel in a 1978 Rolls-Royce from the royal state car collection and make her way to Westminster Abbey.

5:55 a.m. — Bridesmaids and pages arrive at the church.

5:58 a.m. — The bride, Kate Middleton, who will be officially be known as Catherine, and her father Michael arrive at Westminster Abbey.

6 a.m. — The ceremony begins. The service is set to last just over an hour and will include vows and a sermon delivered by the Bishop of London, private clergyman to the queen.

7:15 a.m. — Prince William and the new Princess Catherine will depart Westminster Abbey, by carriage, and process to Buckingham Palace. The carriage carrying the bride and groom will be followed by 4 other carriages carrying their bridal party, parents and Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip.

7:30 a.m. — The Bride and Groom arrive at the Grand Entrance of Buckingham Palace.

7:40 a.m. — Members of the royal family, foreign royal families, and other reception guests begin arriving at Buckingham Palace.

8:25 a.m. — The married couple reappear on the balcony at Buckingham Palace with the Queen and their families for 10 minutes.

8:30 a.m. — The Royal Air Force, where Prince William serves as a search-and-rescue pilot, will perform a flyover.


President Barack Obama today announced a major reshuffling of his national security team, including a new secretary of defense, Californian Leon Panetta, and CIA director, General David Petraeus.

** QUICK HITS. In the seesaw Libyan War, Gaddafi forces drove Libyan rebels out of a key border town they had captured near the Tunisian border, and then in turn may have just been driven out themselves. Control of the town is important for efforts to supply the rebels. … Governor Jerry Brown today canceled plans to build a new facility for Death Row inmates at famous San Quentin Prison, citing the $356 million upfront cost and $28.5 million annual debt service for a facility that would house over 60% more inmates than currently exist. …

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD.

** OBAMA GETS STRONG BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR NEW NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM. For a president whose presidency is heavily dependent on managing geopolitical events — or making his way through the multi-dimensional obstacle course that is planetary politics — having a strong geopolitical team is important. President Barack Obama is getting good early feedback on changes he’s making, replacing retiring Defense Secretary Bob Gates with CIA Director Leon Panetta, moving Army General David Petraeus (who will have to retire from the Army to take the post) from the Afghan War command to the CIA directorship, bringing former Ambassador to Iraq and Pakistan Ryan Crocker, a Bush favorite, back in to be ambassador to Afghanistan and replacing Petraeus in the Afghan command with a longtime associate, Marine Lieutenant General Mike Allen.

Senate Foreign Relations Chaiman John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee who gave Obama his famous convention keynote gig, gives high praise to the appointments. So, too, does Obama’s frequent antagonist, House Speaker John Boehner, who in a statement praised Gates, Crocker and Allen and also said: “With our military engaged on multiple fronts overseas, Leon Panetta understands the importance of ensuring our men and women in uniform have all the resources they need to complete their missions. I look forward to working with him in his new role as Secretary of Defense.

“I believe General Petraeus, who deserves great credit for his leadership in both Iraq and Afghanistan, is the right person to lead the Central Intelligence Agency. He is a deep thinker, a keen strategist and a gifted leader.”

Where might Obama run into some trouble on these appointments? Over in ultra-liberal and left circles, where Petraeus is seen as a bad guy.

Is Petraeus a good choice? I’m not sure. I don’t share in the conspiracy theorizing around him, though he certainly became a favorite of the once dominant neoconservative faction in the Bush/Cheney Administration. But, like most top generals, he’s a politician. And he was also a favorite of one of Obama’s most controversial liberal advisors, NSC deputy Samantha Power.

What I wonder about him is how helpful he will be in figuring out how to keep the price of oil down, or at least under control. Because that is the ballgame.

** NEW CALIFORNIA POLL ECHOES USC/L.A. TIMES POLL IN MOST RESPECTS. I do wish that California’s public pollsters wouldn’t poll at the same time. It leaves big stretches of time in which no polling is being done, sometimes even private polling, when an election campaign is not underway.

The new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll has similar results to those we’ve just discussed in the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. There is strong support for an election on Governor Jerry Brown’s state budget compromise. There is strong support, six out of ten voters, for Brown’s blend of budget cuts and tax extensions.

There is, of course, a caveat. The individual taxes are unpopular. But all individual taxes are unpopular, at least for those who are to pay them.

One tax that is not unpopular is taxing the rich. That’s very popular.

Voters are very concerned about the impact of an all-cuts budget, especially on education, which was the focus of this particular poll.

As for Brown, his job approval rating is up somewhat from last month, with 46% approving and 32% disapproving. This tracks with Brown ending his uncharacteristic public seclusion that I’ve written about, oh, once or twice.

** NEW POLL: JOHN BOEHNER’S BIG FADE. Well, that didn’t last long. New House Speaker John Boehner has experienced a very fast fade of the new car smell. According to a new Gallup Poll, the Republican leader in the new Congress has seen a big drop in his numbers.

He’s had an especially precipitous experience with independent voters, experiencing a whopping 27-point reversal since mid-January.

Americans are just as likely to say they have an unfavorable as a favorable opinion of Speaker of the House John Boehner. This is a significant shift from January, shortly after Boehner took over as speaker, when his positive rating was nearly twice as high as his negative rating. …

Americans’ views of Boehner were closely divided in four Gallup measurements from July 2009 to October 2010, with substantial proportions not having an opinion of him in either direction. After the Republicans won control of the House of Representatives in last fall’s midterm elections, his favorable ratings rose and his unfavorable ratings declined in two successive measurements, in November and January. Now, the April 20-23 USA Today/Gallup poll finds the speaker’s ratings returning to about equally positive and negative. This is what they have been for most of his time as the top Republican in the House of Representatives, though more have an opinion of him now than did so in earlier measurements.

Since January, Boehner’s image has declined among all party groups, with proportionately greater change among independents. His favorable rating is down 10 points among independents and his unfavorable rating is up 17 points, shifting his net favorable score from +16 to -11.

Republicans are less positive toward Boehner now than in January, but still widely view him favorably. Democrats’ opinions were more negative than positive in January, but have moved further in that direction in the most recent measure.

** THE MORE THINGS CHANGE … The more things change, how does that go?

I’m getting ready to attend the California Democratic Party convention this weekend in Sacramento with a certain degree of amusement.

It’s Jerry Brown’s first state Democratic convention since he became governor of California, again. Which reminds me that I’ve attended every California Democratic convention since the last time he was governor, going from very young activist to not so young analyst.

Jerry Brown, of course, has gone from being a young governor to, ah, an eternally youthful governor, while the party’s chairman, Johnny Burton, has gone from being an entertainingly profane left/liberal party chairmn to being, wait for it, an entertainingly profane left/liberal party chairman.

Who says the Democrats don’t deliver change you can believe in?

But some things have changed since the ’70s.

I’m wondering now if I need a haircut, whereas back then I didn’t have to wonder if I needed a haircut. The governor’s not quite so concerned with that stuff as he was back then.

Speaking of hair, Burton seems to be channeling a line from an old David Crosby song, “Almost Cut My Hair.” He’s letting his freak flag fly with his choice of convention keynoter. It’s Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who I believe is the only avowed socialist in the history of the U.S. Senate. And he’s not even a registered Democrat; he’s an independent and ex-third party guy.

Hey, the election was last year. And if the California Republicans can listen to wild man ex-UN Ambassador John “Bombs Away” Bolton, not to mention the toast of Tupelo, ex-presidential candidate Haley “White Citizens Councils were a constructive force” Barbour, as they did last month, why not?

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 12:10 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama will appoint the new Secretary of Defense, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, ambassador to Afghanistan, and military commander in Afghanistan. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


Over 200 people have been killed by tornadoes rampaging through the Southern U.S. The region hasn’t seen storms like this in 50 years. Heightened incidence of extreme weather events is consistent with the climate change scenario.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

Obama then held a meeting on Libya with his national security team in the Situation Room.

At 8:45 AM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

At 11:05 AM Pacific, Obama meets with a group of influential Latinos from across the country, on the immigration crisis, in the Roosevelt Room.

At 12:10 PM Pacific, Obama makes a personnel announcement in the Rose Garden.

The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.

You can mute the sound by clicking on the pause button.

This is a very big announcement. Obama will announce his appointment of CIA Director Leon Panetta to be the new secretary of defense, General David Petraeus to be the new CIA director, former Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker to be the new ambassador to Afghanistan, and Marine Lieutenant General Mike Allen to be the new commander in Afghanistan. Allen will also be promoted to four-star general in the process.

At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli in the Oval Office.

At 1:20 PM Pacific, Obama and Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli will deliver statements to the press in the Oval Office.

With Defense Secretary Bob Gates retiring at the end of June, Obama is reshuffling the upper decks of his national security team. That kicks off a major shift of mostly familiar faces.

I discussed some of the dynamics here yesterday.

In Libya, longtime Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi has not surfaced since the air strike on his compound in Tripoli, though spokesmen say he is alive and well. NATO air strikes seem to have intensified in recent days.

Most of long besieged Misurata seems to have been cleared of Gaddafi troops, though rocket attacks and artillery shelling continue. The tribes that Gaddafi regime spokesmen said would intervene militarily against the rebels have still not emerged. That appears to have been nonsense.

The US is desperate to help maintain some semblance of a stable government in Yemen, which has become a haven for Al Qaeda.

Hamas and Fatah forged a surprise Palestinian alliance late yesterday at a meeting in Cairo and pledged elections over the next year. It’s not clear what this means with regard to the future of the Palestinian Authority. Israel has reacted with some dismay, given the unremitting hostility of Hamas toward Israel.

The Israeli/Palestinian peace process was already stalled with regard to negotiations between the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, and the Hamas-run Gaza was out of the process altogether.

In Syria, demonstrations continue as does the bloody crackdown by President Hafez Assad’s regime. The US is now considering sanctions against the Syrian government.


The UN Security Council failed late Wednesday to agree on a resolution condemning the Syrian regime’s crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. Russia played a leading role in blocking the resolution, returning to its traditional position of opposing intervention in a country’s internal affairs in the wake of Libya.

Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Los Angeles and Sacramento today.

At 4:30 PM, he addresses the 112th Annual Parent Teacher Association convention at the Long Beach Convention and Entertainment Center.

At 7 PM, he addresses the 30th Annual Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs Awards Dinner at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles.

Brown has usually not attended this dinner of the institute founded by his father after he left the governorship.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Wednesday was a a largely quiet day in California politics.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED? Has California’s big reform moment arrived? It sure seems as though it should have.

Governor Jerry Brown came into office having won in a landslide over the biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, that of billionaire Meg Whitman. He set about forging a compromise solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis, pairing big budget cuts with extensions of temporary taxes that many voters don’t even know they pay. He spent months getting to know the legislators of both parties and negotiating with them, with a special emphasis on Republicans who complained that they had been ignored by Brown’s predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But he still only has half a budget deal. Even though the chronic crisis is still more glaring than before.

California state government is mired in dysfunctionality, and has been for years. The great global recession simply exacerbated the situation. It functions moderately well when times are good, though long-range planning has been most notable by its absence even then. When times are not good, well, here we are.From my April 26th column.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG).From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


It turns out there is some sort of royal wedding taking place tomorrow in London. And it may just be netcast live on NWN.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $113 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $79 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, still recovering from the January assassination attempt, left her hospital today and flew to Florida for her husband’s space shuttle launch on Friday.

** QUICK HITS. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval today appointed Congressman Dean Heller to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Republican John Ensign, who chose not to run in 2012, today in Carson City. No appointed senator from Nevada has ever been elected to a full six-year term. Heller’s appointment sets up a bellwether special election for his congressional seat, which is all of Nevada outside Clark County (home of Las Vegas). … Governor Jerry Brown will speak to the state California PTA convention tomorrow in Los Angeles, then address the annual awards dinner of the Pat Brown Institute tomorrow evening, also in LA. … Another new public poll is coming off embargo tonight. Will it have good news or bad for Brown?

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS STILL LIE ABROAD.

** NEVADA STORY: A NARROW LEAD FOR DEAN HELLER IN NEXT YEAR’S U.S. SENATE RACE. Congressman Dean Heller, who represents all of Nevada outside of Clark County, holds a narrow lead over Las Vegas Congresswoman Shellee Berkley, 47% to 43%, in a new Public Policy Polling survey of the race to replace resigned Senator John Ensign.

Heller is likely to be appointed to the seat by new Republican Governor Brian Sandoval.

But Heller’s narrow lead over Berkley actually a big swing in her direction since a poll in January showing him leading her, 51% to 38%.

The main thing fueling Berkley’s gain is that Democratic voters have soured on Heller since he launched his Senate campaign, significantly cutting into his crossover support. In January Heller posted a pretty decent 22/31 favorability spread with Democrats, allowing him a 46/23 breakdown overall. Now just 16% of Democrats express a positive view of him and 48% have a negative one. That’s caused his net favorability to drop 9 points from +23 to now +14 at 43/29.

Given that Democratic voters don’t like him as much anymore it’s no surprise that they’re also not as inclined to vote for Heller as they were earlier this year. In January Berkley had only a 44 point lead over Heller with Democratic voters at 64-20. Now it’s a 63 point lead at 76-13 and that 19 point shift in her direction within her own party is the main reason she now has the race within the margin of error.

One thing that may end up actually hurting Heller in the long run is being appointed to the Senate vacancy created by the early resignation of John Ensign. 53% of voters think that Ensign’s seat should be filled by a special election, compared to only 44% who think Brian Sandoval should appoint Ensign’s replacement. Democrats will certainly try to make a Heller appointment smell bad and these numbers suggest that they have the public behind them in their opposition to Sandoval giving Heller a head start.

Heller-Berkley looks like a toss-up.

What does not look like a toss-up is a match-up between Heller and Bryon Georgiou, a wealthy entrepreneur who moved to Nevada several years ago. Georgeiou was Governor Jerry Brown’s legal affairs secretary the first time Jerry was governor. He’s announced in the Democratic primary against Berkley. But he trails Heller by a wide margin, 52% to 28%.


Then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had a brief digital cameo in Terminator Salvation, seen here in this trailer, as first revealed in a 2009 interview with me.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: HE SAID HE’D BE BACK. In something that is not much of a surprise, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s agents at Creative Artists Agency have packaged him to star in a fifth Terminator movie and are shopping the rights to the movie, purchased for $30 million last year by a hedge fund, with hot new director Justin Lin, whose latest Fast and Furious film, Fast Five, has opened as a hit in European markets last weekend prior to debuting this coming weekend in North America.

As Deadline reports: While many felt at the time that Pacificor overpaid and that Lionsgate and Sony would have been better matches for the material, CAA has chosen an optimum time to seek a new deal. I wrote back in February that Universal quietly was trying to arrange for Lin to be helmer of the project. At the time, some turned up their noses. Given the strong international grosses being racked up by Fast Five and the expectations for a strong domestic opening this Friday, Lin has a lot of heat. And Schwarzenegger is looking to recapture past marquee glory ending his run as California State Governor. Schwarzenegger has circled several projects including Last Stand for Lionsgate, but here, he’s the star, returning to the signature role that once established him as the world’s biggest movie star.

Much like the Superman property, The Terminator has a ticking clock on the rights. There is a stipulation in copyright law that if you assign your rights, you get them back in 35 years. In this case, Cameron assigned his rights to Hemdale, and the North American rights will revert back to him in 2018. Now, Cameron has more or less washed his hands of the Terminator franchise, but I’m told a new deal would have to be made with him if the plan was to keep making Terminator installments beyond that period. There is plenty of time to make at least two Terminator films before that happens, and that might be sufficient to end the saga that so far has spanned four films. Any financier that makes those films owns them free and clear. Rumor is the project price tag is at least $25 million upfront, against a purchase price near $36 million, not including paydays for Schwarzenegger or Lin. It would stand to reason because of the amount Pacificor paid in 2010 and the interest it has carried since. I’m told there is no set price, but this will likely be a whopping sale by the time the dust has settled and the bidding is complete.

When will we see another Terminator movie with the most famous former governor in history in it?

I don’t know. I’m not aware of there being a screenplay yet.

There are any number of ways in which it could work. The time travel element has been established from Terminator‘s inception, and as we see with Doctor Who affords any number of avenues for story-telling.

This year is the 20th anniversary of Terminator 2: Judgment Day, which took Terminator into the stratosphere after the big cult success of the first relatively low-budget film. I’ll write about it when the anniversary gets closer. A lot has happened with the franchise and the culture since then, including a third and fourth films — the former of which, T3, became a big international hit as Schwarzenegger ran successfully for governor in the spectacular 2003 California recall election — and an interesting if not especially popular TV series, as well as spin-off novels.

In my opinion, continuing the series is right up Schwarzenegger’s alley in furthering, as it were, his brand. But it has to be done carefully. While digital magic can recreate the young Schwarzenegger, as you see in the clip above, he needs mainly to be himself. Fortunately for Schwarzenegger, in science fiction, there are any number of ways to explain the “real” Arnold in the movie and position him in the forefront of events, if not of all the action.


President Barack Obama discussed this morning’s release of his long form birth certificate, having long ago released his standard birth certificate, and says that “We’ve got big problems to solve. And I’m confident we can solve them, but we’re going to have to focus on them — not on this.”

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Chicago, and New York.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.

He then delivered a statement in the Brady Press Briefing Room on the release of his long-form birth certificate.

Then he went to Andrews Air Force Base to fly on Air Force One to Chicago.

At 9:10 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Chicago.

At 10:15 AM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama tape an episode of The Oprah Winfrey Show at Harpo Studios in Chicago.

At 12:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Chicago on Air Force One en route to New York City.

At 2:10 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in New York.

At 3 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the home of former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine in New York.

At 6:25 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel.

At 7:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the The Town Hall.

At 8:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs New York on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.

At 9:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.

At 9:45 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.

With Defense Secretary Bob Gates retiring this year, Obama is reshuffling the top deck of his national security team.

In what has been a remarkably ill-kept secret, Obama will name CIA Director Leon Panetta as the new secretary of defense.

In what is an eyebrow-raising move, Obama will replace Panetta as CIA director with … General David Petraeus.

Marine Lieutenant General Mike Allen, currently the deputy commander of Central Command, will replace Petraeus in the Afghanistan command.

Veteran Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who worked in tandem with Petraeus in Iraq, will replace Ambassador and retired General Karl Eikenberry in Afghanistan.

The Californian Panetta is a very familiar figure. He was a longtime congressman from the Monterey area on the Northern California coast who chaired the House Budget Committee and became Bill Clinton’s federal budget director. Then he was Clinton’s White House chief of staff.

Long touted as a candidate for governor of California, Panetta never made the race, which he would have lost as I always wrote. But as an amiable master administrator and canny Washington operator, Panetta is hard to match.

After heading his own policy center at Cal State Monterey and allying with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on political reform issues, Panetta became Obama’s CIA director, over the objection of fellow Californian Dianne Feinstein, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. I wrote about that here two weeks before Obama’s inaugural, taking Feinstein to task and backing Panetta for the CIA directorship.

Clearly a big part of his charge will be finding ways to expand on Gates’s beginning efforts to rein in Pentagon spending.

The appointment of Petraeus — denounced in a notorious MoveOn.org ad in 2007 as “General Betray Us” (a long-ago colleague of mine did the ad) — as Obama’s new CIA director is very intriguing. (And it certainly will do little to tamp down the meme on the ultra-left that Obama is really Bush in, ah, disguise.)

It certainly removes Petraeus from the game board as a potential Republican-oriented critic of Obama on Afghanistan, Iraq, or security in general. (Just as appointing the attractive Western governor Jon Huntsman as ambassador to China made his path forward much more complicated.) Petraeus will essentially be a member of the Obama Cabinet.

For all his touting by some on the right as a godsend GOP presidential candidate (which he is not) and hammering by some on the far left as an evil neocon conspirator, Petraeus is viewed by most as an extremely talented and realistic officer. One of his biggest boosters is one of Obama’s most liberal advisors, former journalist Samantha Power, senior director of multilateral affairs on the National Security Council.


Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, puffed up like a pouter pigeon, claimed vindication today after President Barack Obama caused the release of his long-form birth certificate. What’s wrong with that picture?

Petraeus is probably leaving Afghanistan at a good time for his reputation.

Nine Americans were reportedly killed today by a disgruntled Afghan Air Force colonel at the airfield in the capital city of Kabul. The Taliban claimed him as yet another in a string of jihadist sleeper agents to kill groups of NATO and Afghan soldiers.

In Libya, longtime Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi has not surfaced since the air strike on his compound in Tripoli, though spokesmen say he is alive and well. NATO air strikes seem to have intensified in recent days.

Most of long besieged Misurata seems to have been cleared of Gaddafi troops, though rocket attacks and artillery shelling continue. The tribes that Gaddafi regime spokesmen said would intervene militarily against the rebels have not emerged.

In Yemen, opposition parties have agreed to the terms negotiated by the Gulf Cooperation Council for President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure. He is to leave office in 30 days following signing, turning over his office to his deputy for another 30 days until elections. We’ll see how all the demonstrators feel about this.

The US is desperate to help maintain some semblance of a stable government in Yemen, which has become a haven for Al Qaeda.

In Syria, demonstrations continue as does the bloody crackdown by President Hafez Assad’s regime. The US is now considering sanctions against the Syrian government.

Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Tuesday was a quiet day in California politics.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED? Has California’s big reform moment arrived? It sure seems as though it should have.

Governor Jerry Brown came into office having won in a landslide over the biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, that of billionaire Meg Whitman. He set about forging a compromise solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis, pairing big budget cuts with extensions of temporary taxes that many voters don’t even know they pay. He spent months getting to know the legislators of both parties and negotiating with them, with a special emphasis on Republicans who complained that they had been ignored by Brown’s predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But he still only has half a budget deal. Even though the chronic crisis is still more glaring than before.

California state government is mired in dysfunctionality, and has been for years. The great global recession simply exacerbated the situation. It functions moderately well when times are good, though long-range planning has been most notable by its absence even then. When times are not good, well, here we are.From my April 26th column.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG).From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


The crew of the Space Shuttle Endeavour is taking the stage, readying for Friday’s last flight. Navy Captain Mark Kelly will command the mission, and the launch will be attended by his wife, Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who is recuperating from the January assassination attempt which claimed the lives of six others.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $112 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $78 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speaking today in Denmark, lashed out at NATO asking who gave it the right to try to eliminate Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi.

** QUICK HITS. Any prospects for another UN Security Council resolution authorizing any ground troops in Libya disappeared today with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s attack on NATO for seemingly targeting Moammar Gaddafi. … Yesterday Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour surprised many by ending his Republican presidential candidacy just a week before it looked set to formally kick off. Today Congressman Ron Paul surprised few by formally announcing an exploratory committee to again pursue the Republican presidential nomination. The libertarian fave does very well in straw polls, not so well in elections. … As attempts continued to halt the seeming impasse in California’s chronic budget crisis, Governor Jerry Brown ordered a halt to all but essential travel by state employees, requiring all out-of-state travel to be approved by the Governor’s Office.

** HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED? Has California’s big reform moment arrived? It sure seems as though it should have.

Governor Jerry Brown came into office having won in a landslide over the biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history, that of billionaire Meg Whitman. He set about forging a compromise solution to the state’s chronic budget crisis, pairing big budget cuts with extensions of temporary taxes that many voters don’t even know they pay. He spent months getting to know the legislators of both parties and negotiating with them, with a special emphasis on Republicans who complained that they had been ignored by Brown’s predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

But he still only has half a budget deal. Even though the chronic crisis is still more glaring than before.

California state government is mired in dysfunctionality, and has been for years. The great global recession simply exacerbated the situation. It functions moderately well when times are good, though long-range planning has been most notable by its absence even then. When times are not good, well, here we are.

From my new column.

** GROWING OPPOSITION TO AFGHAN WAR. Readers know that the Afghan War really hasn’t been going well for quite awhile, and that I haven’t thought much of his approach for longer than that. And that popular support for the war has been sliding. Now recent incidents there which made it into the media have dropped support for President Barack Obama’s management below opposition in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

49% are opposed to what Obama is doing, while 44% are still in favor. And far more than that think the war is no longer worth fighting.

More Americans disapprove of President Obama’s management of the war in Afghanistan than support it, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a finding that reflects the public’s broader concern over the course of the nearly decade-old conflict.

Americans have given Obama wide leeway in escalating the conflict in Afghanistan, which as a presidential candidate he called “the war we have to win.” That latitude is changing — and fairly quickly — as the longer-running of the two wars he inherited approaches the 10-year mark.

And, ominously, the shift in the poll comes before the news may get worse.

The change in public opinion comes at the start of the annual fighting season in Afghanistan, a period that U.S. military commanders have warned will probably be more intense than previous ones as the Taliban seeks to retake ground lost to U.S. forces over the past year. …

Last month, the survey revealed that nearly two-thirds of Americans think the war is no longer worth fighting, the highest number recorded in response to that question.

The steadily waning support for the war — and Obama’s stewardship of it — might have political implications as the president fights for reelection.

The poll released Monday showed that a majority of self-identified independents — 53 percent — disapprove of Obama’s handling of the war.

Independents were an essential part of the coalition that elected him in 2008, and the White House has been seeking to win back those voters as 2012 nears.

The last time the Post-ABC News poll recorded such high dissatisfaction among independents over Obama’s management of the Afghanistan war was in November 2009, the month before he announced his new surge strategy. It is only the second time that a majority of independents have said they disapprove of his approach.

** NEW POLL: ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE AND THE IMPACT OF OIL AND GEOPOLITICS. There’s a reason why there’s a live link here every day to the oil market. The price of oil is a geopolitical barometer and and economic barometer. And now it’s a presidential politics barometer.

Despite significant improvements in employment, investment, and economic output, the new Gallup Poll survey on economic confidence finds it slumping. What’s the fly in the ointment? Rising gasoline prices are now putting a crimp in consumer lifestyles. And gasoline is refined from, yes, oil.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index dropped to -39 in the week ending April 24 — a new weekly low for 2011. This continues a downward trend that began in mid-February. The current deterioration of confidence contrasts sharply with the improving trend found at this time a year ago. …

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index consists of two measures: one evaluating Americans’ expectations about the future direction of the economy — whether it is “getting better” or “getting worse” — and the other rating Americans’ perceptions of current economic conditions.

“Poor” Ratings of Economy Reach 2011 High

Nearly half of Americans rated current economic conditions “poor” during the week ending April 24 — the highest level of negativity on this measure so far this year. This is also somewhat worse than the 42% “poor” rating found in the same week a year ago. …

Optimism About Economic Outlook Drops to 2011 Low

Slightly more than one in four Americans said the economy is “getting better” last week. This measure has been declining since mid-February, and is now at its 2011 low. Far fewer Americans currently feel the economy is improving than held that expectation a year ago, when 41% said things were getting better. …

Americans may have good reason to be less confident now than they were earlier this year. Gas prices are surging and are approaching the 2008 record high of $4.11 a gallon. It seems as though Americans’ forecast of a peak price of $4.36 for 2011 is well within striking distance. While upper-income Americans can tolerate these prices better than their lower- and middle-income counterparts, talk of $4 and $5 pump prices is likely to depress all Americans’ future expectations for the U.S. economy.

Food prices are also surging, and jobs remain a major economic problem. Gallup Daily tracking shows that while there has been a modest improvement in the jobs situation, essentially the same percentage of Americans are unemployed today (9.6%) as was the case in mid-January. Although some economic observers may downplay the impact of plummeting confidence and surging prices on the U.S. economy, many economists are lowering their economic forecasts for the first quarter of 2011 — from the 3% to 4% range they originally estimated to the 1 ½% to 2% range.

The beginning of the 2012 presidential campaign may also be creating added uncertainty and depressing economic confidence. Generally, the political confrontations taking shape over federal budget cuts, increased taxes, and raising the federal debt limit may be a source of concern for Americans.

Just 12 months ago, economic confidence was improving and there was talk of “frugality fatigue.” The U.S. saw a sharp spike in spending — particularly among those with higher incomes — during May 2010. Things were looking up for the nation’s retailers and the economy as a whole until the debt crisis in Europe surfaced.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 10 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


British, French, and Italian military instructors are now aiding the Libyan rebels.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

Obama was then interviewed by WSB Atlanta, WKYC Cleveland, WTKR Hampton Roads, Virginia, and WXYZ Detroit in the Map Room. The topics? The budget deficit, community, and economic competitiveness.

At 10 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

At 10:40 AM Pacific, Obama holds a bilateral meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates in the Oval Office.

At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama holds an expanded bilateral meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates in the Oval Office.

The UAE is playing an increasing role on the world stage, taking part in the military mission in Libya, helping forge the exit strategy for the president of Yemen as part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and hosting the new International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in Abu Dhabi.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Bob Gates in the Oval Office.

They will discuss the Libyan War, the Afghan War, and the uncertain situation in Iraq.

Longtime Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi has not surfaced since the air strike on his compound in Tripoli, though spokesmen say he is alive and well.

Most of long besieged Misurata seems to have been cleared of Gaddafi troops, though rocket attacks and artillery shelling continue. The tribes that Gaddafi regime spokesmen said would intervene militarily against the rebels have not emerged.

In Yemen, opposition parties have agreed to the terms negotiated by the Gulf Cooperation Council for President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure. He is to leave office in 30 days following signing, turning over his office to his deputy for another 30 days until elections.

We’ll see how all the demonstrators feel about this.

The US is desperate to help maintain some semblance of a stable government in Yemen, which has become a haven for Al Qaeda.

In Syria, demonstrations continue as does the bloody crackdown by President Hafez Assad’s regime. The US is now considering sanctions against the Syrian government.

Obama is monitoring several other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, Iraq, and Japan.

Today is the 25th anniversary of the Soviet nuclear power disaster at Chernobyl in Ukraine.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED?

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Monday was a quiet day in California politics.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


On the 25th anniversary of the Soviet nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, Japan is struggling with the nuclear disaster at Fukushima.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $112 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $78 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, who headlined the California Republican Party convention last month, surprised many by pulling out of the Republican presidential race today.

** QUICK HITS. House Speaker John Boehner says he’ll look at the massive federal subsidies to oil companies as part of a federal budget solution. But he insisted that President Barack Obama is to blame for increased gasoline prices. Obviously he is not one of my readers, or someone who pays any attention to geopolitics, or, apparently, the news in general. … Standard & Poor’s rating service maintained its negative outlook on California state government. While citing many favorable factors, it focused on one big negative: The state’s dysfunctional Capitol scene.

** CALIFORNIA 2011: MORE ON THE USC DORNSIFE/L.A. TIMES POLL. A very interesting media conference call late morning today on the new poll sponsored by the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences and the Los Angeles Times.

This, just to get things out of the way, is the latest version of what used to the LA Times Poll. Except it’s principally a USC poll in partnership with the LA Times, which dropped its poll a few years ago as the newspaper downsized. Dornsife refers to the contributors whose recent gift to USC surpassed that of George Lucas, David and Dana Dornsife, who contributed $200 million to the university.

So, a conference call with the USC poll director, Dan Schnur, who is also the director of the USC Unruh Institute of Politics and former chairman of the state Fair Political Practices Commission, and reps from the bipartisan polling team, the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and the Republican firm American Viewpoint.

They ran through some of the highlights, that Governor Jerry Brown’s compromise budget plan, including tax extensions is favored, 52% to 38%. And that support for tax extensions is even greater, 63%, when it’s clear that it’s needed to protect K-12 education funding.

“Californians are clearly buying what Jerry Brown is selling,” Schnur said. “Not only do they support a mix of tax increases and spending cuts to balance the budget, but they are adamant about having the opportunity to vote on it themselves. Their continued support for a special election is a strong signal that the governor is correct to keep his promise to let the voters make the final decision.”

While some Brown allies want to simply enact the tax extensions and never have a vote to approve or ratify the decision, 53% of voters look very much askance on that notion.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg noted how dour the state’s mood remains, with just 19% believing California is moving in the right direction.

Brown himself has a 44% job approval rating, with 33% disapproving. He has a high “don’t know” factor because, as I’ve been pointing out right along, he’s been more low profile than his predecessors.

Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton’s pollster when he was first elected president, also emphasized how much support for reining in the public pension system has grown. 70% want a cap on pensions for future and current employees. 68% want employees to contribute more money to the system. And 52% want the retirement age raised.

During the conference call, the California Republican Party sent out a release attacking the poll, calling it “a trial lawyer’s dream” supposedly systematically leading respondents to the conclusion that tax extensions “are the only ‘reasonable’ solution to California’s budget crisis.”

Bear in mind, of course, that Republicans have presented no alternatives. And that the Republican Party and the Meg Whitman campaign launched a very similar attack against the USC/LA Times poll during the fall campaign when it found a significant lead for Brown over Whitman. Brown won in a landslide.

Also during the call, a conservative blogger, Joel Fox, who fronted for a massive independent expenditure attack against Brown last year in which he refused to divulge contributors, and Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters both raised similar questions undermining the poll’s apparent finding of support for tax extensions.

Schnur pointed that support for the alternative to tax extensions, an all-cuts budget, has plummeted since the last poll taken in mid-November. In the mid-November version of the poll, 44% of voters favored an all-cuts solution to the state budget crisis. In this poll, support for that approach has plummeted to 33%. And it spirals further downward to 25% when voters learn that an all-cuts budget means cuts to K-12 education.

** HALEY BARBOUR SAYS NO TO PRESIDENTIAL RACE. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, the former Republican national chairman and toast of many a GOP insider who had expected him to run, announced today that he will not run for president in 2012.

Barbour was the keynote speaker at last month’s California Republican Party convention. He languished in national polls at 2% or so, but had been expected to be a powerful fundraiser.

He’d gotten a lot of credit for Republican gains last year in his role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, which in a number of respects picked up the slack left by a bad Republican National Committee operation. But he has an extensive background as a super-lobbyist, as I’ve pointed out, and that would have been a big negative had he ever gotten to the general election.

Plus, I didn’t see the very white governor of a Deep South Confederate state running well against the first black POTUS.

“I will not be a candidate for president next year,” Barbour, a Republican, said in a statement. “This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.”

Barbour said he would continue serving as governor and as chairman of the Republican Governors Association working to “elect a new Republican president in 2012.”

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 9:30 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing. The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live netcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


April 26th is the 25th anniversary of the great Soviet nuclear disaster at Chernobyl. Many questions remain about the current crisis of Japan’s wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant.

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.

A big week in presidential politics, with a host of crises and the Republican presidential race slowly ramping up toward its first debate next week in South Carolina. And possibly a big week in California politics, with the Legislature back from a 10-day spring break and Governor Jerry Brown continuing his push to solve the other half of the state’s big budget deficit.

First a look at President Barack Obama’s block schedule for the week.

On Monday, the Obamas host the 2011 White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn, featuring live music, sports courts, cooking stations, storytelling and, of course, Easter egg rolling. Obama will also meet with his national security team for his monthly meeting on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On Tuesday, Obama will welcome Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates to the White House. The UAE is playing an increasing role in global affairs, participating in the Libyan War, working on the negotiated departure of Yemen’s embattled president, and hosting the first international agency to be headquartered in the Arab world, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

On Wednesday, the Obamas will travel to Chicago to tape an episode of The Oprah Winfrey Show. Obama will then travel to New York City to deliver remarks at two DNC fundraisers.

On Thursday, Obama will welcome Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli to the White House. And on Friday, Obama will welcome Auburn University’s football team to the White House to honor the team’s 2010 BCS National Championship. Then the Obamas will travel to Cape Canaveral, Florida to view the final launch of the space shuttle Endeavour.

Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, badly wounded in an assassination attempt, will be on hand Friday to watch her husband, Navy Captain Mark Kelly, pilot the Endeavour into space for its final mission. Following its retirement, Endeavour will be housed at the California Science Center in Los Angeles. (I understand there’s also some royal wedding earlier that day.)

Obama will then travel to Miami to deliver the commencement address at Miami Dade College.

On Saturday, the Obamas will attend the White House Correspondents Dinner.

Obama must deal with the latest Wikileaks info-dump, this on Guantanamo Bay. It looks like Gitmo has been, not surprisingly, poorly run from the outset, with many, though not most, held there having little if any real connection with jihadism.

In the Libyan War, rebel forces claim again to have taken the long embattled city of Misurata, Libya’s third largest and their only toehold in the western part of the country. NATO air strikes, and the introduction of US Predator drones to the conflict, have helped the rebels to drive Libyan Army forces away from the city center.

The Gaddafi regime is saying that army units will withdraw, but tribal forces still allied with Gaddafi are likely to enter the fray. If so, they will be more difficult to distinguish from the civilian population. However, despite major gains, Al Jazeera is reporting that the rebels have not yet taken the city.

Meanwhile, a NATO air strike hit Gaddafi’s compound in Tripoli early today. Gaddafi has not yet surfaced publicly in the strike’s aftermath.

In Ajdabiya, which changed hands seven times before finally being secured by rebel forces with the help of increased NATO air strikes, the opposition on Saturday named the main city square after Tim Hetherington, the Oscar-nominated documentary filmmaker and photojournalist who was killed on Wednesday in Misurata. Hetherington had chronicled much of the fighting in and around Ajdabiya. His death may not have been in vain, as it may have spurred NATO to greater efforts in Misurata.

Senator John McCain spent Friday in Benghazi, the highest ranking American official to visit war-torn Libya, and after a day of meetings called for recognition of the rebel council as Libya’s legitimate government, along with increased military support for the rebel forces, but eschewed the use of US or other Western ground troops.

In Syria, massive demonstrations in the past few days have resulted in more than a hundred deaths at the hands of Syrian security forces. But the protesters are not backing down.

Big demonstrations continue also in Yemen, where longtime American ally President Ali Abdullah Saleh, having run through a variety of scenarios, is under relentless pressure to step down both within and without from Gulf Arab states. In fact, he agreed over the weekend to hand power to his deputy in 30 days, once an agreement was signed, and have elections 30 days after that, so long as he and his family are free from any prosecution.

But, while opposition parties accepted the terms brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, other protesters in the streets are not. They want Saleh gone now.

In Afghanistan, there was a mass prison break in Kandahar early this morning engineered by the Taliban. Nearly 500 prisoners escaped, many of them Taliban small unit commanders and cadre. Somehow, major tunneling activity went unnoticed for weeks.

While these dramatic developments play out, another very significant development has occurred off-stage, largely unnoticed.

The Arab League was to hold its annual summit next month in Baghdad. But the Gulf Cooperation Council (the six mostly wealthy Gulf Arab states) declared their opposition to the event taking place in Iraq due to the Iraqi government’s protest of the ongoing crackdown against the majority Sunni population in GCC member state Bahrain.

Saudi troops are in Bahrain, as you know, and the regime has cracked down brutally against protesters there, ending what had been truly massive demonstrations. Now they are quietly rounding up opposition leaders.

Will this week see a breakthrough in California’s perennial budget impasse?

Jerry Brown was a hit on Friday at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group’s 8th Annual CEO Business Climate Summit in San Jose, garnering praise for his performance and continued support on California’s chronic budget crisis. The day before, he appeared in a Republican assembly district at a high school with the local state assemblyman where they heard that if there are no tax extensions the high school the legislator attended will be decimated.

With half of the state’s budget deficit eliminated, but the other half stuck in impasse, the state Legislature is back its 10-day spring break.

Brown’s cause is buoyed by a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll showing strong support for his plan, including the tax extensions, very strong support for protecting K-12 education from any future cuts, a steady job approval of 44%, and big support for capping and limiting public pensions as well as state spending limits.

At the end of the week, Brown and other Democratic leaders will be at the annual California Democratic Party convention in Sacramento.


Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi’s compound in Tripoli was hit hard this morning by a NATO air strike. There is no word that he was killed, but he has not surfaced to make a statement since.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

The Obama family then attended the 2011 White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn, where Obama delivered remarks.

At 8:30 AM Pacific, Obama meets with his national security team on Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Situation Room.

At 9:30 AM Pacific, White House press secretary Jay Carney delivers a briefing in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

At 11:35 AM Pacific, Obama meets with Attorney General Eric Holder in the Oval Office.

Obama is monitoring several geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED?

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Sacramento today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $111 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $77 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.

April 23rd, 2011

Easter Weekend Edition


In his blessing at Easter Sunday Mass in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican, the Pope urged an end to the fighting in Libya.

** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

Obama has received his daily intelligence briefing in the Oval Office.

He has no scheduled public events.

The Obama family attended Easter services this morning at Shiloh Baptist Church. This is only the seventh time that the Obama’s have attended public church services in Washington during his presidency.

Not too surprisingly, Libyan rebel claims to have driven Gaddafi forces from besieged Misurata, the nation’s third largest city, have proved to be exaggerated. But with help from more aggressive NATO air strikes, and attacks from U.S. Predator drones, regime forces have been driven from the center of the city.

In Yemen, longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a key ally of the U.S. in the fight against Al Qaeda, has agreed to a Gulf Cooperation Council-negotiated plan to give up power to his deputy in 30 days and allow free elections 30 days after that.

But protests continued, in part because Saleh and his family would be granted immunity from prosecution.

In Syria, more than a hundred protesters have been killed by security forces since Friday. Yet the protests against longtime President Hafez Assad, no friend to the U.S., continue today.

Obama is also monitoring other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED?

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SUNDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown received relatively good news in a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll published today. His job approval rating is steady and his state budget plans are backed by solid majorities of California voters.

I’ll have more about this, and more numbers from that poll, tomorrow.


In his Easter weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discusses the crimp that rising oil prices are placing in the economic recovery, promises an investigation into potential manipulation of the oil and gasoline markets, and criticizes Congressional Republicans for trying to cut alternative energy programs by 70%.

** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.

He has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

Obama has no scheduled public events.

In the Libyan War, rebel forces claim to have taken the long embattled city of Misurata, Libya’s third largest and their only toehold in the western part of the country. NATO air strikes, and the introduction of US Predator drones to the conflict, have helped the rebels to drive Libyan Army forces away from the city center.

The Gaddafi regime is saying that army units will withdraw, but tribal forces still allied with Gaddafi are likely to enter the fray. If so, they will be more difficult to distinguish from the civilian population.

However, despite major gains, Al Jazeera is reporting that the rebels have not yet taken the city.

In Ajdabiya, which changed hands seven times before finally being secured by rebel forces with the help of increased NATO air strikes, the opposition today named the main city square after Tim Hetherington, the Oscar-nominated documentary filmmaker and photojournalist who was killed on Wednesday in Misurata. Hetherington had chronicled much of the fighting in and around Ajdabiya. His death may not have been in vain, as it may have spurred NATO to greater efforts in Misurata.

Senator John McCain spent Friday in Benghazi, the highest ranking American official to visit war-torn Libya, and after a day of meetings called for recognition of the rebel council as Libya’s legitimate government, along with increased military support for the rebel forces, but eschewed the use of US or other Western ground troops.

In Syria, massive demonstrations yesterday and today resulted in dozens of deaths at the hands of Syrian security forces. But the protesters are not backing down.

Big demonstrations continue also in Yemen, where longtime American ally President Ali Abdullah Saleh, having run through a variety of scenarios, is under relentless pressure to step down both within and without from Gulf Arab states.

While these dramatic developments play out, another very significant development has occurred off-stage, largely unnoticed.

The Arab League was to hold its annual summit next month in Baghdad. But the Gulf Cooperation Council (the six mostly wealthy Gulf Arab states) declared their opposition to the event taking place in Iraq due to the Iraqi government’s protest of the ongoing crackdown against the majority Sunni population in GCC member state Bahrain.

Saudi troops are in Bahrain, as you know, and the regime has cracked down brutally against protesters there, ending what had been truly massive demonstrations. Now they are quietly rounding up opposition leaders.


Libyan rebel claims to have taken long-besieged Misurata appear to be exaggerated, though major gains have been made.

Obama is also monitoring other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES – SATURDAY. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

Brown was a hit yesterday at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group’s 8th Annual CEO Business Climate Summit in San Jose, garnering praise for his performance and continued support on California’s chronic budget crisis.

With half of the state’s budget deficit eliminated, but the other half stuck in impasse, the state Legislature is off on its 10-day spring break.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would.

There were fantasies here and elsewhere of another Iraq or, better yet, the golden oldie, Vietnam.

But in reality, it looks, as I said at the beginning, a lot more like Kosovo. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

Brown gets top marks from most for having eliminated half the state’s bulging $26 billion budget deficit, largely through steep budget cuts. And he gets widespread kudos for bringing a new spirit — hmm, that could be a slogan — of constant engagement with state legislators from both parties.

Brown’s predecessors weren’t exactly keen on hanging with the legislature. Republican legislators famously wore name tags to a meeting with Schwarzenegger a couple of years back. …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …

Some believe he’s trying to set up a contrast with Schwarzenegger, who traveled in motorcades and had a fairly large staff. And certainly there is an element of calculation to what Brown does. He is, after all, a politician.

But the deeper reality is that this is how he operates. At least since the first time he was governor.

After his father died in 1996, the California Democratic Party held a lengthy commemorative ceremony honoring the great Democrat at its April convention in Los Angeles. From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** IS LIBYA A TURNING POINT ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONISM?From my March 18th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


The new season of the famed British cult series Doctor Who premieres this evening in the UK, US, and around the world on BBC America, BBC, and other channels.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed on Friday at $112.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

This is up about $78 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


At the end of the day in Benghazi, Senator John McCain called for the recognition of the Transitional National Council as Libya’s legitimate government, advised against sending in foreign troops, and called for increased military support for the rebels, including weapons, training, and close air support to take on the heavy firepower of Gaddafi forces.

** QUICK HITS. Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins announced today that she opposes the so-called Ryan Plan for America’s fiscal future passed last week by the new Republican House, further pointing up its lack of any future in the Senate. She can evidently read polls. … The U.S. State Department signed off on today’s John McCain trip to Libya, where the Vietnam War hero called the Libyan rebels “my heroes” and insisted that they are not Al Qaeda. … The first Los Angeles Times/USC poll since the November post-election survey comes out this weekend. Will it be good news or bad news for Governor Jerry Brown? … Brown was in Silicon Valley today for a business summit of the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and to drum up/harden support for his state budget compromise. …

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … HAS CALIFORNIA’S REFORM MOMENT ARRIVED?

** HAPPY EARTH DAY: MOST IN WORLD VIEW HUMANS AS CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSE, EXCEPT IN … THE U.S. A new Gallup Poll survey shows that most people in the world who are away of the issue view humans as the cause of climate change through the greenhouse effect. The big holdout? America, oddly enough, where a plurality now ascribes the phenomenon to natural causes.

This is a big downturn in the U.S. since 2008.

Is this because we have a major political party in which only one-third believe that the President of the United States is really an American citizen?

World residents are more likely to blame human activities than nature for the rise in temperatures associated with climate change. Thirty-five percent of adults in 111 countries in 2010 say global warming results from human activities, while less than half as many (14%) blame nature. Thirteen percent fault both. …

People nearly everywhere, including majorities in developed Asia and Latin America, are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities rather than natural causes. The U.S. is the exception, with nearly half (47%) — and the largest percentage in the world — attributing global warming to natural causes.

Americans are also among the least likely to link global warming to human causes, setting them apart from the rest of the developed world. Americans’ attitudes in 2010 mark a sharp departure from 2007 and 2008, when they were more likely to blame human causes. …

Implications

People nearly everywhere are more likely to believe humans cause global warming. In the United States, where residents are less likely to blame humans for global warming and to see it as a threat, residents could potentially feel less empowered to act as stewards of the environment in the future.


** NEW POLL: TRUMP AND HUCKABEE LEAD REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL FIELD.
A new Gallup Poll shows Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee tied atop the Republican presidential field, with Mitt Romney a close third, Sarah Palin a close fourth, and everyone else in single digits.

This is the first Gallup Poll that has included Trump.

One thing that is very interesting is that, even with Trump not included, Newt Gingrich has lost half his support in the past five months. Does this mean I won’t have an excuse to read and write about his alternate history novels?

Here are the numbers: Trump 16%, Huckabee 16%, Romney 13%, Palin 10%, Ron Paul 6%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Michele Bachmann, Mitch Daniels 3%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Haley Barbour 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson less than 1%.

The April 15-20 Gallup poll finds Trump leading the field among moderate and liberal Republicans, with 21% supporting him. Huckabee is the leader among conservative Republicans. Huckabee’s support and Trump’s support differ between ideological groups, while Romney and Palin get similar support from both ideological wings of the party.

Among the lower-ranked candidates, Newt Gingrich’s support and Michele Bachmann’s support tilt decidedly conservative. Trump is the only potential candidate who shows notably stronger appeal to liberals and moderates than to conservatives within the GOP. …

To stay competitive, Trump would need to maintain a decent level of support among conservatives, since they outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 among rank-and-file Republicans and Republican leaners. For the same reason, Huckabee’s smaller support among moderates and liberals is less of an issue if he maintains his top standing among conservatives.

Trump’s Support Would Generally Go to Other Leaders if He Does Not Run

Gallup included Trump as an explicit choice in its monitoring of GOP preferences for the first time in April 15-20 polling. In recent months, Gallup surveys in which Trump was not offered as an explicit choice found 1% or less of Republicans volunteering his name as the potential candidate they are most likely to support for the GOP presidential nomination.

The likelihood of Trump’s officially entering the race is still unclear, with many continuing to wonder whether his public discussion about running for president is serious or designed to attract publicity to himself and his reality television show.

The poll asked for Republicans’ second choice for the nomination, allowing for an analysis of what preferences would look like without Trump in the field. Under that scenario, most of Trump’s support is spread among the other leading candidates, with Huckabee’s support climbing to 19%, followed by Romney at 16% and Palin at 13%.

Those numbers are similar to what Gallup has found in recent months, before Trump’s inclusion. The most notable change since March is the dip in support for Newt Gingrich, from 10% to 7%, a new low for the former House speaker.


Senator John McCain is in Libya meeting with rebel leaders and others in Benghazi.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California and Washington.

At 8:55 AM Pacific, Obama departs Los Angeles on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.

At 1:15 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.

Obama will receive his daily intelligence and economic briefings and meet with senior advisors on Air Force One.

Obama had a very successful trip to the West, raising a combined $7 million for his re-election campaign account and Democratic National Committee activities promoting his re-election at events in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Among those on hand for Obama in San Francisco were Senator Dianne Feinstein, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (who introduced Obama at his Thursday breakfast fundraiser), former state Controller Steve Westly (one of his top fundraisers and earliest supporters), Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, and state Attorney General Kamala Harris (one of Obama’s earlier supporters).

Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice appeared with Obama at Wednesday’s big event at the Masonic Auditorium on Nob Hill. Stevie Wonder appeared at the earlier private dinner at Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff’s home.

Last night in Los Angeles, Capitol Group Private Banking President John Emerson (who was my best man) introduced Obama at a major fundraiser at Sony Pictures Studios.

At a later event, Obama was joined by Steven Spielberg, Tom Hanks, George Clooney, and Governor Jerry Brown and First Lady Anne Gust Brown.

Following this sojourn in a land of promise, Obama is returning to a capital in crisis.

Obama approved the use of Predator drones in Libya for offensive strikes, but their first missions on Thursday were wiped out by bad weather. The aircraft are able to fly low and slow and linger around a battlefield, making them very useful in taking out harder to identify targets.

Today, however, alliance air strikes helped rebel forces re-take the city center in besieged Misurata.

Also today, Senator John McCain arrived in Benghazi to meet with rebel leaders and assess the situation.

The 2008 Republican presidential nominee, now the ranking minority member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is a big proponent of the fight against Gaddafi.

He is the highest ranking official to visit war zone Libya, and is expected to get a read-out on the rebels’ somewhat chaotic political and military leadership structure.


President Barack Obama has authorized the use of Predator drones to mount air strikes against Gaddafi forces.

In Syria today, hundreds of thousands protested in the streets against longtime President Hafez Assad, unimpressed by his new reforms announced last Saturday. At least 15 were killed when security forces opened fire in several cities.

Obama is also monitoring other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.

At 1 PM, Brown will participate in the Silicon Valley Leadership Group’s 8th Annual CEO Business Climate Summit in San Jose. He will join Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, SunPower CEO Tom Werner, and Applied Materials CEO Michael Splinter in a panel discussion on the state’s economy, budget and business climate.

Following the event on his state budget compromise yesterday in Santa Clarita with Republican state Assemblyman Cameron Smyth, Brown and First Lady Anne Gust Brown joined President Obama at his final fundraiser of the evening in Los Angeles, a dinner for 60 at the Tavern.

With half of the state’s budget deficit eliminated, but the other half stuck in impasse, the state Legislature is off on its 10-day spring break.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would.

There were fantasies here and elsewhere of another Iraq or, better yet, the golden oldie, Vietnam.

But in reality, it looks, as I said at the beginning, a lot more like Kosovo. From my April 21st essay.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

Brown gets top marks from most for having eliminated half the state’s bulging $26 billion budget deficit, largely through steep budget cuts. And he gets widespread kudos for bringing a new spirit — hmm, that could be a slogan — of constant engagement with state legislators from both parties.

Brown’s predecessors weren’t exactly keen on hanging with the legislature. Republican legislators famously wore name tags to a meeting with Schwarzenegger a couple of years back. …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …

Some believe he’s trying to set up a contrast with Schwarzenegger, who traveled in motorcades and had a fairly large staff. And certainly there is an element of calculation to what Brown does. He is, after all, a politician.

But the deeper reality is that this is how he operates. At least since the first time he was governor.

After his father died in 1996, the California Democratic Party held a lengthy commemorative ceremony honoring the great Democrat at its April convention in Los Angeles. From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK?From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** IS LIBYA A TURNING POINT ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONISM?From my March 18th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


The Doctor arrives in 1969 America to assist … President Nixon? The season premiere of the longtime British cult fave Doctor Who, now occurring same day UK and US, is tomorrow.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $112 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $78 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


A look at behind the scenes preparations for a presidential visit outside the bright lights of the big city. This is ElectraTherm in Reno, Nevada before President Barack Obama’s noontime town hall there today.

** QUICK HITS. Nevada Senator John Ensign, once one of the Republican Party’s top leaders, will resign his seat tomorrow to short-circuit a Senate ethics investigation into charges that he paid people off to cover up an affair with an aide who was the wife of one of his top aides. Ensign had previously announced that he would not run for re-election next year. This gives new Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval the opportunity to appoint the leading Republican candidate, Congressman Dean Heller, to the seat, giving him a potential leg up in the likely election next year against Las Vegas Congresswoman Shelley Berkley. Heller represents all of Nevada outside Clark County. This has been shaping up as one of the biggest Senate races in the country. … Yesterday marked the 1000th supply mission through Russian airspace for the U.S./NATO mission in Afghanistan. In addition, 25,000 containers of supplies have been shipped through Russia and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. … Another edition of the Los Angeles Times/USC poll will be out this coming weekend. The poll measures how Governor Jerry Brown’s state budget plan stacks up, and assesses the performance of Brown, President Barack Obama, Senator Dianne Feinstein, and the state Legislature. It also looks at voter attitudes toward proposed state spending limits and public pension reforms.

** NEW POLL: THE BIRTHER PARTY. Well, it turns out that that poll I featured here the other day on the first-in-the-nation Iowa Republican presidential caucuses is also indicative of Republican attitudes around the country.

In the brand-new New York Times/CBS News poll, 47% of Republican voters in America say they believe that President Barack Obama is not really an American citizen because he was born in another country. Another 22% aren’t sure whether Obama is really an American.

Just 32% of Republican voters nationally correctly identify the President of the United States as having been born in the United States.

Wow.

The poll also shows a pervasive malaise among Republican voters about the Republican presidential candidates. But I would say that that is among the least of the problems for this political party.

These results indicate a pervasive irrationality in Republican ranks. Is it the result of too much ingestion of toxic media? An overhang of good old-fashioned racism? Whatever the explanation, it isn’t good.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 11:50 AM Pacific, President Barack Obama takes part in a town hall at ElectraTherm, a firm which makes devices converting waste heat into power, in Reno, Nevada. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live webcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.


Two award-winning photo-journalists, Tim Hetherington and Chris Hondros, were killed yesterday in the besieged Libyan city of Misurata. Hetherington was an Oscar nominee for co-directing the documentary Restrepo about the Afghan War.

** THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA. Newscaster: The failure of today’s pre-dawn Special Forces raid in Tripoli to catch or dispatch Moammar Gaddafi leaves the Obama Administration with a dwindling set of options on Day 32 of the Libyan War. The wily colonel had already moved from his Bab al-Azizia compound to an alternate headquarters, leaving the assault force of Navy Seals and Army Rangers little choice but to fight their way out of a trap. The Pentagon has not released casualty figures. The CIA is not commenting on the misfiring mission.

More than a month of round-the-clock air strikes and Tomahawk missile attacks have forced Gaddafi forces back from the rebel-held eastern part of Libya but have failed either to relieve the dictator’s siege of Misurata in the west or to loosen his grip on the capital. Widespread civilian casualties from the increased allied aerial bombardment have stiffened the resolve of the colonel’s supporters and spurred anti-American sentiment.

Now America’s hopes for victory turn on the amphibious units on the ships offshore, where heroic young U.S. Marines await the chance to perform their generation’s version of the second line of their famous anthem, ‘From the halls of Montezuma, To the shores of Tripoli …’

Nothing at all like this has happened, of course, though many imagined that something much like it would.

There were fantasies here and elsewhere of another Iraq or, better yet, the golden oldie, Vietnam.

But in reality, it looks, as I said at the beginning, a lot more like Kosovo.

From my new column.


Despite the intervention of NATO in Libya, the humanitarian situation in Misurata is still worsening.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California and Nevada.

Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings.

At 9:40 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the St. Regis Hotel in San Francisco.

At 10:35 AM Pacific, Obama departs San Francisco on Air Force One en route to Reno, Nevada.

At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Reno, Nevada. (I must say that it is hard to believe it takes 55 minutes for a jet aircraft to fly from San Francisco to Reno, but this is what the President’s schedule says.)

At 11:50 AM Pacific, Obama participates in a Shared Responsibility and Shared Prosperity town hall on the deficit, community, and economic competitiveness at ElectraTherm, Inc. in Reno.

The event will be netcast live on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Reno on Air Force One en route to Los Angeles.

At 2:45 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Los Angeles.

At 5:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event in The Commissary at Sony Pictures Studios in Culver City.

At 6:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event on Soundstage 30 at Sony Pictures Studios in Culver City.

At 7:50 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at a private residence in Los Angeles.

The Libyan War remains at evident stalemate, with US air assets playing a supporting but not leading role, amidst widespread complaints about the lack of effectiveness of other NATO forces in suppressing the forces of longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi.

Yesterday brought the news of the deaths of two more journalists, these two photo-journalists killed in besieged Misurata. One was Oscar-nominated documentary filmmaker Tim Hetherington, whose last tweet bemoaned the unrestrained shelling of the city by Gaddafi forces and the absence of NATO air support.

Two journalists for Arab networks were previously killed by Gaddafi loyalists in Benghazi.

Massive demonstrations continued today in American-allied Yemen, but its longtime president refuses to step down even as opposition leaders are meeting with Gulf Arab leaders to concoct a way of getting him to step down.

Obama is also monitoring other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in the San Francisco Bay Area and the LA area today.

This morning, Brown meets with President Barack Obama at the St. Regis Hotel in San Francisco prior to the president’s speech at his fundraiser there.

At 1 PM, Brown will meet with educators and law enforcement at William S. Hart High School in Santa Clarita, California to discuss how the state’s budget crisis is impacting schools and public safety in Los Angeles County.

The governor will be joined by Republican state Assemblyman Cameron Smyth, who says he does not yet support Brown’s budget compromise.

Santa Clarita is an edge city, a place which has grown to nearly 200,000 in the mountainous region north of Los Angeles. During the 2003 recall campaign, I recall speaking with Arnold Schwarzenegger and him telling me that he had just had the biggest fundraiser in the history of Santa Clarita. I said that I wasn’t aware they had fundraisers there.

With half of the state’s budget deficit eliminated, but the other half stuck in impasse, the state Legislature is off on its 10-day spring break.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

Brown gets top marks from most for having eliminated half the state’s bulging $26 billion budget deficit, largely through steep budget cuts. And he gets widespread kudos for bringing a new spirit — hmm, that could be a slogan — of constant engagement with state legislators from both parties.

Brown’s predecessors weren’t exactly keen on hanging with the legislature. Republican legislators famously wore name tags to a meeting with Schwarzenegger a couple of years back. …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …

Some believe he’s trying to set up a contrast with Schwarzenegger, who traveled in motorcades and had a fairly large staff. And certainly there is an element of calculation to what Brown does. He is, after all, a politician.

But the deeper reality is that this is how he operates. At least since the first time he was governor.

After his father died in 1996, the California Democratic Party held a lengthy commemorative ceremony honoring the great Democrat at its April convention in Los Angeles. From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK? Is it possible to be happy and angry at the same time? It must be, because I am. Happy that Mad Men is renewed for not one, but two more seasons, with another likely on tap. And angry that it won’t be back for nearly a year. March 2012 is a long time off. And unfortunately the terrific cast has been left in the lurch, not to mention all the other talented people who create Mad Men’s very distinctive world. …

So what was going on with Mad Men? And how is it stacking up, at least at the moment, in its quest to match The West Wing by winning a record-tying fourth straight Emmy Award as best drama? …From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** IS LIBYA A TURNING POINT ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONISM?From my March 18th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


With the season premiere of the long-running British fave Doctor Who just two days away, two fans explain 47 years of Who history in 6 minutes.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $111 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $77 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.


President Barack Obama appeared this afternoon in a town hall at Facebook headquarters in Palo Alto, California.

** FACEBOOK FRIENDS OBAMA. President Barack Obama’s town hall appearance today at Facebook headquarters in Silicon Valley went off without a hitch. The event was moderated by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, the 26-year old multi-billionaire who still looked like a teen despite wearing a jacket and tie. (A loosened tie, that is, with jeans and white sneakers.) Obama took credit for getting him to start wearing a tie, but I’d seen him in one before he had dinner with Obama and other tech titans in February.

Questions for Obama came from the in-house crowd, as well as from Facebook users around the world. But because the president gives what might be described as expansive answers, not all that many were actually posed in the event, which was netcast live here on New West Notes.

It was a good opportunity for Obama to get his message out, with Facebook clearly in his corner, with the world’s premiere social networking outfit not only hosting him but also shorter sessions with White House senior advisor Valerie Jarrett and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Obama described Republican Congressman Paul Ryan’s highly controversial fiscal plan, which passed the Republican-controlled House last week, as “radical” but “not courageous.”

Ryan and his cohorts, he said, “wants to change our social compact in a pretty fundamental way.”

“Their basic view is that no matter how successful I am, no matter how much I’ve taken from this country, that somehow I have no obligation to people who are less fortunate than me, and I have no obligation to future generations,” Obama said. “I guess you could call that bold. I would call it short-sighted. Nothing is easier than solving a problem on the backs of people who are poor, who don’t have lobbyists, who don’t have clout.”

Obama also talked up technological innovation and education as keys to America’s global economic competitiveness.

Among those also on hand were Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and state Controller John Chiang.

Outside were expected protesters from Code Pink, who imagine that Obama is to Libya what Bush was to Iraq.

>>>>>>LIVE VIDEO NETCAST

At 1:45 PM Pacific, President Barack Obama holds a town hall at Facebook Headquarters in Palo Alto, California. The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes. You can mute the sound during set-up by clicking on the pause button.

** LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

With massive geopolitical events swirling and the 2012 presidential race unfolding, the White House is increasingly a pivot point for the day’s events. Live streaming of key presidential events is now available as a matter of course here on New West Notes. You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

NWN will continue to present other live webcasts in full streaming mode, as it did with the Ronald Reagan Centennial events from the Reagan Library, as they emerge and are technically available and as significance dictates.

** JERRY BROWN SCHEDULE UPDATE: In the ever emerging schedule of Governor Jerry Brown, he will speak tonight at the California State Sheriffs Association dinner at the Mark Hopkins Hotel in San Francisco. Which is quite nearby President Barack Obama’s second fundraiser of the evening.

Tomorrow morning he will see Obama at his breakfast fundraiser at the St. Regis Hotel in San Francisco before going down to Southern California for an event in Santa Clarita.

** NEW SURVEY: WELCOME TO TINDERBOX WORLD. A new Gallup Poll survey of countries around the world makes it clear why what I call the geopolitical risk premium can upset a still gathering recovery from the great global recession.

To be clear about the equation, which I’ve written about before but some may forget, heightened geopolitical risk, especially in the vicinity of oil-producing/oil-transiting areas leads to higher oil prices. Higher oil prices cut into the recovery, or end it.

The Gallup survey reveals enormous disparities in how people view their lives and whether or not they are “thriving.” Denmark ranks highest on the scale, followed closely by Sweden and Canada. America ranks 12th, trailing behind not only the top three countries on the scale but also Australia, Finland, Venezuela, Israel, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Panama.

Clearly there is a substantial degree of subjectivity and relativity in people’s perceptions of whether or not they are thriving in life. Expectations in America are quite high, and have been dashed of late.

Just below America are Austria, Costa Rica, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, Qatar, and Mexico.

That’s the entirety of the nations which have majority populations viewing themselves as “thriving.”

Now click through and look at the list of nations where less than 25% of the population believe themselves to be thriving. Among other things, it tracks quite nicely with nations currently involved in the Arab uprising.

Gallup’s global wellbeing surveys in 2010 reveal that a median of 21% across 124 countries were “thriving” last year, based on how people rated their lives at the current time and their expectations for the next five years. This is unchanged from a median of 21% in 2009. The percentage rating their lives well enough to be considered thriving ranged from a high of 72% in Denmark to a low of 1% in Chad. …

Gallup classifies respondents’ wellbeing as “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10 based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. People are considered thriving if they rate their current lives a 7 or higher and their lives in five years an 8 or higher.

Majorities of residents in 19 countries — mostly in Europe and the Americas — rated their lives well enough to be classified this way. Denmark, along with Sweden (69%) and Canada (69%), led the list, which is largely dominated by more developed and wealthier nations, as expected given the links between wellbeing and GDP. The U.S. falls somewhat near the middle of the pack, with 59% of Americans thriving. …

Outside of this group, much of the world was not doing nearly as well. In 67 countries, less than 25% of people were thriving. Countries on this list hailed from all regions, but thriving was generally lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. The median thriving percentage in this region was 8%. No country in sub-Saharan Africa had a thriving percentage higher than 19%, underscoring the entire region’s development challenges. …

A median of 20% in the Middle East and North Africa region were thriving. Nearly two in three (63%) were thriving in Israel — the highest score in the region — as were more than half of respondents in the relatively wealthy United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Small minorities — one in seven or fewer — were thriving in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, and Morocco, which provides some evidence of the underlying discontent that bubbled over in late 2010 and early 2011.


President Barack Obama held a town hall yesterday at Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, Virginia.

** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … THE NON-IMPERIAL PRESIDENCY: OBAMA AND LIBYA.

** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and California.

Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefing and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.

He then left the White House, departing Andrews Air Force Base on Air Force One en route to San Francisco.

At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in San Francisco, California.

At 1:45 PM Pacific, Obama participates in a Shared Responsibility and Shared Prosperity town hall hosted by Facebook to discuss his approach to bringing down the deficit at Facebook Headquarters in Palo Alto.

The event will be netcast live here on New West Notes.

You can mute the audio by clicking on the pause button.

At 6:15 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at a private residence in San Francisco.

At 8:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC event at the Nob Hill Masonic Center in San Francisco.

The Libyan War remains at evident stalemate, with US air assets playing a supporting but not leading role, amidst widespread complaints about the lack of effectiveness of other NATO forces in suppressing the forces of longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi.

The European Union’s idea of sending 1000 troops to aid in the humanitarian mission has been rejected by the Gaddafi regime and been met with a cold shoulder by the United Nations.

The UN human rights commissioner, however, says he believes that Gaddafi forces are committing war crimes in Libya.

Yesterday, Britain announced that it would send military advisors to assist the Libyan rebels. Italy also said something much the same late in the day.

Today France announced that it will send a contingent of military advisors to Libya.

These troops are all reportedly coming in small numbers; we’re talking dozens. Of course, the Vietnam War began with the insertion of small numbers of military advisors.

Meanwhile, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council leaders continue to express support for the Transitional National Council in Benghazi as Libya’s emerging leadership, though to date only France, Italy, and Qatar have formally recognized it as the Libyan government.

Massive demonstrations continued today in American-allied Yemen, but its longtime president refuses to step down even as opposition leaders are meeting with Gulf Arab leaders to concoct a way of getting him to step down.


France is joining Britain now in sending teams of military advisors to assist the Libyan rebels.

Obama is also monitoring other geopolitical crises, mostly related to the Arab uprising, AfPak, and Iraq.

War Zone Times: The time in Libya is nine hours ahead of Pacific time; the time in Iraq is ten hours ahead of Pacific time; and the time in Afghanistan is eleven-and-a-half hours ahead of Pacific time.

** FROM THE JERRY FILES. Governor Jerry Brown is in Northern California today.

He has no scheduled public events as of this morning.

With half of the state’s budget deficit eliminated, but the other half stuck in impasse, the state Legislature is off on its 10-day spring break.

Brown continues working on the California state government’s chronic budget crisis and his nascent administration.

Click here for my compendium of articles laying out the re-emergence of Jerry Brown as governor of California.

** ASSESSING THE JERRY BROWN ASSESSMENTS (AND WHY HE WAS IN STEALTH MODE SO LONG). Jerry Brown is now 15 weeks into his new/renewed governorship. How were the assessments at his 100-day mark? And, oh yeah, why was he in stealth mode for so long, eschewing virtually all public appearances for months in favor of behind-the-scenes negotiations? …

Brown gets top marks from most for having eliminated half the state’s bulging $26 billion budget deficit, largely through steep budget cuts. And he gets widespread kudos for bringing a new spirit — hmm, that could be a slogan — of constant engagement with state legislators from both parties.

Brown’s predecessors weren’t exactly keen on hanging with the legislature. Republican legislators famously wore name tags to a meeting with Schwarzenegger a couple of years back. …

The reality is that Jerry Brown is his own chief of staff, his own chief strategist, his own communications director, his own media director, his own chief negotiator, etc. …

Some believe he’s trying to set up a contrast with Schwarzenegger, who traveled in motorcades and had a fairly large staff. And certainly there is an element of calculation to what Brown does. He is, after all, a politician.

But the deeper reality is that this is how he operates. At least since the first time he was governor.

After his father died in 1996, the California Democratic Party held a lengthy commemorative ceremony honoring the great Democrat at its April convention in Los Angeles. From my April 18th feature.

** MAD ABOUT MAD MEN: WILL IT MATCH WEST WING‘S MARK? Is it possible to be happy and angry at the same time? It must be, because I am. Happy that Mad Men is renewed for not one, but two more seasons, with another likely on tap. And angry that it won’t be back for nearly a year. March 2012 is a long time off. And unfortunately the terrific cast has been left in the lurch, not to mention all the other talented people who create Mad Men’s very distinctive world. …

So what was going on with Mad Men? And how is it stacking up, at least at the moment, in its quest to match The West Wing by winning a record-tying fourth straight Emmy Award as best drama? …From my April 14th essay.

** THE RETURN OF JERRY BROWN. From my April 11th column.

** LIBYAN WAR: NEW INTERNATIONAL “CONTACT GROUP” OFF TO A RUGGED START. From my March 30th essay.

** CALIFORNIA’S PARTY OF NO TAKES CENTER STAGE, OR DOES IT? > … From my March 26th feature.

** OBAMA’S DIFFIDENT WAY OF WAR.From my March 21st feature.

** IS LIBYA A TURNING POINT ON HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTIONISM?From my March 18th essay.

** FROM GOVERNATOR TO MOONBEAM. From my January 3rd, 2011 feature.

** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.


A sad note with the season premiere of Doctor Who just three days away. Actress Elisabeth Sladen has died of cancer. In the 1970s, Sladen proved to be one of the Doctor’s most popular companions. After the show began again, she returned in 2006. Her investigative journalist character then headlined a BBC spin-off series, The Sarah Jane Adventures.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in three wars in the region, and the Arab uprising underway, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $110 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This is up about $76 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.

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