Comedy Channel Daily Show host Jon Stewart, a great favorite of a great many people, including Jerry Brown, held a huge rally Saturday on the Mall in Washington. Arianna Huffington brought 10,000 people in buses from New York.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … OBAMA’S BIG MISTAKE.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Illinois, Ohio, and Washington.
Obama slept in his own bed last night, then received the daily intelligence and economic briefing in his Hyde Park home in Chicago.
He then departed Chicago on Air Force One en route to Cleveland, Ohio.
At 11:25 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC “Moving America Forward” rally at Cleveland State University with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and others. Vice President Joe Biden also attends and delivers remarks.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama departs Cleveland on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 2:10 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama welcome local children and military families to trick-or-treat on the North Portico of the White Housel
Obama is also studying the thwarted plan of a few Al Qaeda-related people in Yemen to mail bombs to Jewish targets in the U.S. via airliners.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SUNDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
He has no scheduled public events.
His favored successor, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, is barnstorming the state today in Eureka, Chico, Sacramento, and Riverside.
Brown’s trailing opponent, billionaire Meg Whitman, campaigns today in Burbank and Santa Barbara.
The last Field Poll shows the initiative to do away with Schwarzenegger’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program, Proposition 23, trailing badly, 33% to 48%.
Schwarzenegger will be in San Francisco on Tuesday night for the No on 23 victory party.
Proposition 25, the majority vote budget initiative, leads, 48% to 31%.
Proposition 19, legalization of recreational marijuana, trails, 42% to 49%.
** CALIFORNIA STORY: BROWN AND BOXER KICK FOR THE FINISH LINE.Is it really almost over? California Republicans’ Golden Parachute Twins, billionaire Meg Whitman and ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, are bringing distinctly odd notes to their closing efforts to catch Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer in the races for governor and U.S. senator.
The last Field Poll of the election season places Brown in the lead over Whitman, 49% to 39%, in the race to succeed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Boxer ahead of Fiorina, 49% to 41%. I have tracking poll numbers from three very reliable pollsters who have Brown’s lead in that vicinity and Boxer’s a bit lower. …
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama says that, no matter what happens in the elections, both parties must work together to boost the economy, and expresses concern about statements to the contrary from Republican leaders.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Illinois.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
At 8:25 AM Pacific, Obama speaks at a DNC rally at Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
He will appear with Congressman and retired Navy Admiral Joe Sestak, locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate.
At 12:05 PM Pacific, Obama speaks at a DNC rally in Bridgeport, Connecticut.
He will appear with Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
At 4:45 PM Pacific, Obama speaks at a DNC rally at Midway Plaisance Park in Chicago.
He will appear with Illinois State Treasurer and U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias and Governor Pat Quinn, both of whom are in very tight races. Giannoulias is trying to hold on to Obama’s old Senate seat.
The Chicago rally may surpass Obama’s rally in Los Angeles with former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown and Senator Barbara Boxer as the biggest of the mid-term elections.
Obama is belatedly trying to sell an improved yet still rather weak brew of tea. The economy grew for the fourth straight quarter in Q3, by 2%. Unemployment claims dropped for the fourth straight week, as well.
After spending most of the week at the White House, Obama is back on the campaign trail for the final push before the midterm elections. Obama has been doing many interviews with TV and radio shows around the country, mostly outside the glare of national publicity and off his public schedule.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
The U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved nearly eight months after national parliamentary elections.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s favored successor, Jerry Brown, embarks on a three-day, 12-city statewide tour on Saturday, beginning and ending in Oakland.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SATURDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
He has no scheduled public events.
Jerry Brown kicked off his three-day tour of California with a 7:30 AM rally at his campaign headquarters in Oakland. He’ll wrap up his tour Monday evening with a rally in Jack London Square, not far from where he bought his converted warehouse in the ’90s after his last presidential campaign and prior to running for mayor of Oakland.
After Oakland, Brown has rallies today in Stockton, Merced, Fresno, and Bakersfield.
For her part, billionaire Meg Whitman is in Orange County, San Diego, and Sacramento.
Yesterday Schwarzenegger’s ally, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, endorsed Newsom over Maldonado. Bloomberg also campaigned with Whitman, so make of it what you will.
In the hard-fought race for state attorney general, it’s a dead heat, with Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley with the slightest of edges over San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris, 39% to 38%.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
** BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HOLDING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.The great Republican wave is going to crash against the Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, if indeed it makes it across the Nevada desert. Despite running against the biggest spending candidate in American history, Jerry Brown is in command in the race for governor of California, the former governor and presidential contender close to completing an amazing comeback.
Senator Barbara Boxer is holding on despite being targeted by big-spending national Republican groups. And the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program is going down in flames.
In five straight public polls, including one by Fox News, Brown’s lead over billionaire Meg Whitman ranges from 8 to 13 points. Reliable private polling has Brown up by nine. And that was before Whitman, her churlish attitude coming to the fore yesterday in a softball session with Brown and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, managed to get herself booed at Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach.
Barbara Boxer always looks more vulnerable than she turns out to be, and after nearly taking command of her race against ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at the beginning of the month, experienced slippage in private and some public polling. This prompted the national Republican Senate and Karl Rove operations to pour millions into the race, millions which could make more of a difference in a less expensive state. But Boxer’s position seems to have stabilized, with a boost coming from her and Brown’s rally at USC last week with President Barack Obama, and Fiorina’s has not. Reportedly suffering an infection from reconstructive surgery, Fiorina, a breast cancer survivor, was hospitalized on Tuesday. Her return to the campaign trail is not yet set.
The Boxer and Brown races are on somewhat separate tracks. She suffers from the overhang of a very unpopular Congress, which Brown, who has withstood the incredible onslaught of billionaire Meg Whitman’s campaign does not. He’s the ultimate anti-pol/ultra-pol, famed for his “insider’s knowledge/outsider’s mind.” But what is not on a separate track at all is the campaign over Proposition 23, the initiative to do away with the state’s program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost renewable energy, which stands as one of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s most cherished items of accomplishment. … From my October 27th feature.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. … From my October 23rd feature.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed at $81.43 per barrel on Friday. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $47 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama, appearing this morning at a small business in Maryland, discussed four straight quarters of economic growth and said his role is to “accelerate the recovery.”
** CALIFORNIA 2010: WHERE’S JERRY? AND OTHER LESS THAN SCINTILLATING QUESTIONS. Where’s Jerry Brown? Billionaire Meg Whitman’s flailing campaign claims he’s canceled his schedule since the two of them appeared on Tuesday with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach. And some reporters have bit on the notion.
I’m not aware that Brown has canceled anything. He has a speech in Orange County tonight, at which he addresses the annual Golden Badge Awards ceremony for statewide law enforcement in his capacity as California’s attorney general. Then tomorrow morning he embarks on a three-day whirlwind tour of the state, closing with a Monday evening rally in Oakland’s Jack London Square near the converted warehouse he bought in the 1990s following his last presidential campaign.
What’s he been doing since Tuesday? Well, I told you that he is in charge of his own campaign for governor, didn’t I?
Meanwhile, Whitman has yet another TV attack ad, this one taking an interview Brown gave around his last presidential campaign and claiming it shows Brown has never had any plan for California. For all the good that will do her.
Brown has big leads in three tracking polls taken last night by very good pollsters, of 10 points and more.
And Senator Barbara Boxer also leads ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, though by less, from six to eight points.
** SILVER STATE SPECIAL: FLASH FLOOD. I talked with a very knowledgeable pollster today working in Nevada and it looks fairly likely that Tea Party fave rave Sharron Angle will defeat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
It’s not a done deal yet, there are major Democratic turnout efforts underway, and Angle is an extremely problematic figure. Frankly, she seems to me to be so ignorant and so extreme it is hard to conceive of her gaining election to more than a state legislative seat, which is what she once held in the Nevada State Assembly.
But, having spent a fair amount of time in Nevada in the past few years, I’ve noticed that Reid is deeply unpopular there, so much so that it the state has seemed willing to vote him out for the past two years. Only Angle’s striking emergence in the Republican primary this year, vaulting past two seemingly superior candidates, made Reid’s re-election look like a decent prospect.
But he is having great difficulty getting above 45& in the latest tracking. And unless there’s a larger than usual Nevada None of the Above vote, that may be it for him.
** NEW POLL: NEW HIGH (SORRY) OF AMERICANS BACK LEGALIZING MARIJUANA. While most polls appear to indicate that Proposition 19, which would legalize recreational use of marijuana in California, is likely to go down — with the caveat that people may lie to pollsters about the prospect of changing state law — a new Gallup Poll shows that an all-time high (again, sorry) favors legalization nationally.
46% are in favor of legalizing marijuana, while 50% are opposed.
While California’s marijuana ballot initiative is garnering a lot of attention this election cycle, Gallup finds that nationally, a new high of 46% of Americans are in favor of legalizing use of the drug, and a new low of 50% are opposed. The increase in support this year from 44% in 2009 is not statistically significant, but is a continuation of the upward trend seen since 2000.
These results are from Gallup’s annual Crime poll, conducted Oct. 7-10. Approximately 8 in 10 Americans were opposed to legalizing marijuana when Gallup began asking about it in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Support for legalizing the drug jumped to 31% in 2000 after holding in the 25% range from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s.
A separate question in the poll asked about legalizing marijuana for medical use, and found support significantly higher than it is for legalizing the use of marijuana in general. Seventy percent of Americans say they favor making marijuana legally available for doctors to prescribe in order to reduce pain and suffering. This figure is down, however, from 78% in 2005 and 75% in 2003.
Across numerous subgroups, liberals’ support, at 72%, is by far the highest. There is widespread support for legalization among 18- to 29-year-olds (61%) as well.
Majority support is also found among Democrats, independents, men, and political moderates.
A large majority of those living in the West, which encompasses California, are in favor of making the drug legal. Support is significantly lower in the South and Midwest.
Political conservatives and Republicans are the least supportive of legalizing marijuana. Seniors express a similarly low level of support.
Women are 10 percentage points less likely than men to favor legalizing the drug.
These demographic, political, and ideological differences in support are much the same as they were in 2009.
Arguments for and against legalizing marijuana — for personal or medical use — are likely to continue for years to come. Even if Proposition 19 wins in California on Nov. 2, as state law it will still come up against federal law, which bans the growth and sale of marijuana.
Support for making the drug legal in general, however, is growing among Americans. The public is almost evenly split this year, with 46% in favor and 50% opposed. If the trend of the past decade continues at a similar pace, majority support could be a reality within the next few years.
** NEW NWN FEATURE ON TAP: FROM THE JERRY FILES. Beginning next week, after a post-election respite, New West Notes will have a new daily item to help frame the day.
Joining Obama Today and From The Arnold File — which lay out what President Barack Obama and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger are up to based on their schedules — will be “From The Jerry Files.”
I may not know what he’s doing at the beginning of each day, but having known Jerry Brown for a very long time, I will have a pretty good idea about the meaning of what he’s just done or, if it’s known what he’s doing that day, is about to do.
** CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE: NEW FIELD POLL — BOXER BY 8 OVER FIORINA. For Republicans to take over the U.S. Senate, they almost certainly must defeat Senator Barbara Boxer here in California. I’ve already predicted that Boxer will win.
Boxer’s lead in reliable private polling is somewhat lower than that, but still significant.
Boxer’s lead is less than that of Jerry Brown in his race to return to the governorship against billionaire Meg Whitman, but they are doing roughly the same with voter groups, though Brown has taken a very slight lead among white voters while Boxer trails slightly among white voters.
Like Brown, Boxer has big leads over Fiorina among women, Latinos, and independents. They have huge margins in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles County.
In this year’s fiercely contested U.S. Senate race, Democrat Barbara Boxer holds an eight-point lead
– 49% to 41% – over her Republican rival Carly Fiorina in a Field Poll survey completed one week
before the election. Another 4% of likely voters favor other candidates and 6% are undecided.
In March Boxer was virtually tied with Fiorina (45% to 44%). In succeeding surveys Boxer’s lead
increased marginally to three points in July, to six points last month, and now stands at eight.
Boxer’s current lead over Fiorina is derived from the fact that non-partisan voters are currently
favoring Boxer over Fiorina 49% to 32%. In addition, the incumbent benefits from the fact that the
poll suggests that Democrats will outnumber Republicans by about five percentage points among all
voters statewide next week.
Voters hold divided and very partisan views toward the two candidates. For Boxer 48% have a
favorable opinion and 47% an unfavorable view of her. A similar situation exists for Fiorina, with
42% viewing her favorably and 42% unfavorable.
Those who have already voted by mail or intend to vote in this manner before next Tuesday’s
election account for 55% of all likely voters. They favor Boxer 48% to 40%. Among the 21% of
the mail ballot voters who have already voted, Boxer leads 48% to 42%.
Among those intending to vote at their local precincts on Election Day, Boxer holds a nine-point
lead (50% to 41%).
Both Boxer and Fiorina exert strong appeal to their respective partisan backers. Among Democrats
Boxer is way ahead of Fiorina (83% to 10%). Republicans favor Fiorina by a similar margin, 79%
to 11%. Non-partisans and those registered with other parties prefer Boxer, 49% to 32%.
President Barack Obama has had an eventful week, mostly around the White House, before heading back on the campaign trail. One of his more public activities was appearing on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington, Maryland, and Virginia today.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
He then left the White House on Marine One for Beltsville, Maryland.
At 8:25 AM Pacific, Obama tours a local business in Beltsville.
At 8:40 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks on the economy. He then returns to the White House on Marine One.
At 9:25 AM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
At 3:10 PM Pacific, Obama departs the White House on Marine One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 3:25 PM Pacific, Obama departs Andrews Air Force Base on Air Force One en route to Charlottesville, Virginia.
At 4:10 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Charlottesville, Virginia.
At 4:35 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a rally for Congressman Tom Perriello at the Charlottesville Pavilion.
At 5:45 PM Pacific, Obama departs Charlottesville, Virginia on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 6:35 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 6:50 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House.
The economy grew for the fourth straight quarter in Q3, by 2%. Unemployment claims dropped for the fourth straight week, as well.
After spending most of the week at the White House, Obama is back on the campaign trail for the final push before the midterm elections.
Obama has been doing many interviews with TV and radio shows around the country, outside the glare of national publicity and off his public schedule.
One that was very much in the glare of national publicity was his appearance with Jon Stewart on Comedy Central’s The Daily Show, a major base delivery mechanism for his message.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
The U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved nearly eight months after national parliamentary elections.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger rails against the oil companies behind Proposition 23, the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program, on ABC’s World News with Diane Sawyer.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
At 10:30 AM, Schwarzenegger joins Eli and Edythe Broad, University of Southern California President C. L. Max Nikias and USC Keck School of Medicine Dean Carmen A. Puliafito to celebrate the opening of the Eli and Edythe Broad CIRM Center for Regenerative Medicine and Stem Cell Research at USC.
CIRM is the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine, the state’s biggest-in-the-world stem cell research program. The program was authorized by statewide initiative in November 2004 after Schwarzenegger intervened with late campaigning to ensure its passage. After religious fundamentalists used sued to block the issuance of voter-approved bonds to fund the stem cell research program, Schwarzenegger kick-started it into operation in 2006 with a major loan from the state’s general fund.
** BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HOLDING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.The great Republican wave is going to crash against the Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, if indeed it makes it across the Nevada desert. Despite running against the biggest spending candidate in American history, Jerry Brown is in command in the race for governor of California, the former governor and presidential contender close to completing an amazing comeback.
Senator Barbara Boxer is holding on despite being targeted by big-spending national Republican groups. And the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program is going down in flames.
In five straight public polls, including one by Fox News, Brown’s lead over billionaire Meg Whitman ranges from 8 to 13 points. Reliable private polling has Brown up by nine. And that was before Whitman, her churlish attitude coming to the fore yesterday in a softball session with Brown and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, managed to get herself booed at Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach.
Barbara Boxer always looks more vulnerable than she turns out to be, and after nearly taking command of her race against ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at the beginning of the month, experienced slippage in private and some public polling. This prompted the national Republican Senate and Karl Rove operations to pour millions into the race, millions which could make more of a difference in a less expensive state. But Boxer’s position seems to have stabilized, with a boost coming from her and Brown’s rally at USC last week with President Barack Obama, and Fiorina’s has not. Reportedly suffering an infection from reconstructive surgery, Fiorina, a breast cancer survivor, was hospitalized on Tuesday. Her return to the campaign trail is not yet set.
The Boxer and Brown races are on somewhat separate tracks. She suffers from the overhang of a very unpopular Congress, which Brown, who has withstood the incredible onslaught of billionaire Meg Whitman’s campaign does not. He’s the ultimate anti-pol/ultra-pol, famed for his “insider’s knowledge/outsider’s mind.” But what is not on a separate track at all is the campaign over Proposition 23, the initiative to do away with the state’s program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost renewable energy, which stands as one of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s most cherished items of accomplishment. … From my October 27th feature.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. … From my October 23rd feature.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $48 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Jerry Brown, ahead in all polls in the race for governor of California against billionaire Meg Whitman, is about to embark on a three-day statewide tour, Saturday through Monday. I think of it as the “No Bull / No Bulworth Tour.” To strategically adjust what a certain former governor and presidential contender said: A little candor goes a long way in this business. Incidentally, did you ever notice that Warren Beatty gave Jay Bulworth the same initials as Jerry Brown?
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … NOTHING NEW ABOUT THE PARANOID STYLE IN AMERICAN POLITICS.
** QUICK HITS.Still a very rugged race in Nevada for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid against Tea Party fave rave Sharron Angle. I’ll have up-to-date tracking poll information tomorrow. I have some from last night, and Reid is in real trouble. … Ex-Nevada state assemblywoman Angle’s closing TV ad talks up the economic crisis, and blames it all on Obama, Reid, and Pelosi. … “It breaks my heart,” says billionaire Meg Whitman now as she tries to mobilize her right-wing base, but her longtime illegal immigrant housekeeper Nicky Diaz really must be deported. Funny how that didn’t occur to her years ago when she learned that Diaz’s Social Security number was bogus. …
** IT’S WORLD SERIES TIME, BUT WHERE’S THE CALIFORNIA-TEXAS WORLD SERIES BET? The National League champion San Francisco Giants are taking on the American League champion Texas Rangers in the World Series. The Giants won the first game; game 2 is tonight.
It’s customary for governors whose state teams are in the top championship events to bet on the outcome, as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has done the last two seasons on the NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers.
But there’s no bet on the World Series between Schwarzenegger and Texas Governor Rick Perry. Is that because there’s no love lost between them?
I’m only speculating, of course, but I recall in fall 2007 when Schwarzenegger delivered what he viewed as one of his key speeches, to the California Republican Party convention outside Palm Springs. I wrote a column previewing Schwarzenegger’s speech, in which the landslide re-election winner of the November past called on his rightward-leaning party to head more towards the center.
The speech fell largely flat.
Schwarzenegger was then followed by, yes, Texas Governor Rick Perry. Who served up a heaping dish of far right red meat which the California convention delegates lapped up with glee.
Driving away from the convention the next day, I called Jerry Brown and told him it occurred to me that California Republicans were heading hard right, and that anyone who emerged from a competitive Republican primary could be beaten for the governorship.
Even someone who has broken all spending records for a non-presidential campaign in American history.
Speaking of which, billionaire Meg Whitman — whose chief strategist Mike Murphy is now replicating his sorry performance during Schwarzenegger’s 2005 special election disaster by putting out another memo claiming that his campaign is really tied or ahead — showed just how pretentious she is by taking it upon herself to represent California in a bet with Texas on the World Series outcome.
Whitman bet Perry, whose Texas administration she repeatedly praises as a model venture, a surfboard against a pair of Texas cowboy boots.
How nice.
Whitman does deserve a souvenir from this monstrously expensive experience, so my recommendation is that she get Perry to give her a pair of Lucchese boots. They’re what I’ve worn since the early ’90s. (Schwarzenegger gave Russian President Dmitry Medvedev a pair of Luccheses.) Once they’re broken in, they feel great, and with proper care and refurbishing, they last and last. So they can remind her forever of when she pretended to be governor.
** TED SORENSEN HOSPITALIZED AFTER MAJOR STROKE. Legendary JFK speechwriter and counselor Ted Sorensen is hospitalized in New York City following his second major stroke.
Sorensen, 82, served as special counsel and chief speechwriter for John F. Kennedy during his days in the U.S. Senate and throughout his presidency. He later published a definitive biography of Kennedy and advised his brothers, Robert F. Kennedy and Edward M. Kennedy in their careers as U.S. senators and presidential candidates.
He became a powerhouse New York lawyer and was President Jimmy Carter’s first choice to serve as CIA director. But the agency was going through post-Watergate spasms at the time and its more conservative clandestine operators wing seized on Sorensen’s youthful pacifism to develop major opposition in the Senate, even though Sorensen had functioned at a high level of efficiency as a member of the legendary ExComm — the Executive Committee of the National Security Council — that essentially ran the government of the United States during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
I came to know and work some with Sorensen in his role as a national co-chairman of Senator Gary Hart’s presidential campaigns. He’s a great gentleman and a legendary speechwriter.
Later, he provided a key early endorsement to President Barack Obama.
Sorensen, described by JFK as his “intellectual blood bank,” collaborated very closely with the president on all his major speeches, including legendary Kennedy Inaugural Address, and his Pulitzer Prize-winning book, “Profiles In Courage.”
His own memoir, “Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History,” published in late 2008, should be required reading for those in politics and those who study the art.
The California Democratic Party has just launched this ad for Jerry Brown. “The Most Interesting Man in California” is based on the award-winning Dos Equis ads.
** NEW FIELD POLL: JERRY BROWN LEADS BY 10 OVER BILLIONAIRE MEG WHITMAN, MIRRORING PRIVATE POLLING. Back in the day, we lived and died on advance sneaks on the Field Poll, the venerable public poll of California politics and elections. When I learned yesterday that former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown was up by 10 in the forthcoming Field Poll over billionaire Meg Whitman, it confirmed what I’d been reporting for weeks and what was reflected in a raft of public and private polling numbers rattling around my office.
Brown leads by an identical 10 points in a highly credible private poll. Senator Barbara Boxer also leads, with what looks like a safe six-point margin, over ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
To return to the Field Poll, Brown moved from a tie in early September to his present commanding lead by virtue of running up big majorities among independents, women, Latinos, and Angelenos.
Brown’s image score, i.e., ratio of favorable ratings to unfavorable ratings, is even. (In private polling, it is now in net positive territory.) This is an improvement, despite many millions in negative ads from Whitman and her shadowy corporate allies, who refused to disclose their true sources of funding.
Whitman’s image score, which was slightly net negative in September, is decidedly net negative now. This is due both to attack ads from Brown and labor allies, and, I am certain, to a backlash against her own campaign. Which is not just public events but also a reaction to the nature of her campaigning and advertising.
To quote from the poll’s commentary by Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field:
The current poll finds Brown shoring up his support among women, non-partisans, Latinos and in
Los Angeles County. In addition, despite heavy paid media presence of Whitman over the past
year, she has been unable to appreciably increase the proportion of voters who view her favorably
(42%). The proportion of voters who hold a negative opinion of her has grown to 51%, its highest
level recorded.
These are the results from the final pre-election Field Poll conducted among 1,501 registered
voters, of whom 1,092 either have already voted by mail or are considered likely to vote in next
Tuesday’s gubernatorial election.
Trend of voter preferences
Twelve months ago in The Field Poll’s initial survey pairing Whitman and Brown, the former eBay
CEO trailed Brown by twenty-one points. In succeeding months Whitman made steady gains in
voter preference. In a poll last March, Whitman pulled ahead of Brown by three points – 46% to
43%. Two subsequent surveys – one in July and the other in September – found no more than one
percentage point separating the two candidates in overall preference.
The current survey finds Brown’s support has increased by eight points since September, while
Whitman’s has declined by two points.
Record number of voters will be voting by mail
The survey finds that 21% of all those expected to vote have already cast their ballots. The poll
forecasts that by Election Day more than half of all voters (55%) will cast their ballots by mail, a
record high percentage for a general election in this state.
Among those who have either already voted by mail or who intend to vote in this manner, 48% are
supporting Brown, while 40% are backing Whitman. Of the 21% subgroup who have already
voted, 48% went for Brown, while 41% chose Whitman. Among those likely to vote at their local
precincts on Election Day Brown’s lead is 49% to 38%.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence briefing in the Oval Office.
At 11:40 AM Pacific, Obama meets with some of the Americans involved in the Chilean mine rescue effort in the Oval Office.
At 11:50 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks to the press in the Rose Garden.
At 12:15 PM Pacific, Obama receives the daily economic briefing in the Roosevelt Room.
For his part, at 8:15 AM Pacific, Vice President Joe Biden chairs a regular meeting of senior officials in the Situation Room. to assess progress in Iraq. In the afternoon, he appears at an event for Congressman Frank Kratovil in Bethesda, Maryland.
Obama is doing many interviews with TV and radio shows around the country, outside the glare of national publicity and off his public schedule.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
The U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved nearly eight months after national parliamentary elections.
Director James Cameron appears with his friend Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in this ad against Proposition 23, the oil industry-funded initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles and San Jose today.
At 3 PM, Schwarzenegger will join Propel Fuels, a leading retailer of domestically-produced low-carbon fuels, for the opening of their newest renewable fuel station in San Jose.
** BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HOLDING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.The great Republican wave is going to crash against the Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, if indeed it makes it across the Nevada desert. Despite running against the biggest spending candidate in American history, Jerry Brown is in command in the race for governor of California, the former governor and presidential contender close to completing an amazing comeback.
Senator Barbara Boxer is holding on despite being targeted by big-spending national Republican groups. And the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program is going down in flames.
In five straight public polls, including one by Fox News, Brown’s lead over billionaire Meg Whitman ranges from 8 to 13 points. Reliable private polling has Brown up by nine. And that was before Whitman, her churlish attitude coming to the fore yesterday in a softball session with Brown and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, managed to get herself booed at Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach.
Barbara Boxer always looks more vulnerable than she turns out to be, and after nearly taking command of her race against ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at the beginning of the month, experienced slippage in private and some public polling. This prompted the national Republican Senate and Karl Rove operations to pour millions into the race, millions which could make more of a difference in a less expensive state. But Boxer’s position seems to have stabilized, with a boost coming from her and Brown’s rally at USC last week with President Barack Obama, and Fiorina’s has not. Reportedly suffering an infection from reconstructive surgery, Fiorina, a breast cancer survivor, was hospitalized on Tuesday. Her return to the campaign trail is not yet set.
The Boxer and Brown races are on somewhat separate tracks. She suffers from the overhang of a very unpopular Congress, which Brown, who has withstood the incredible onslaught of billionaire Meg Whitman’s campaign does not. He’s the ultimate anti-pol/ultra-pol, famed for his “insider’s knowledge/outsider’s mind.” But what is not on a separate track at all is the campaign over Proposition 23, the initiative to do away with the state’s program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost renewable energy, which stands as one of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s most cherished items of accomplishment. … From my October 27th feature.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. … From my October 23rd feature.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $47 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Republican hopes to take over the U.S. Senate received another blow yesterday when ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, already trailing Senator Barbara Boxer in California, was hospitalized.
** QUICK HITS.Jerry Brown, milking billionaire Meg Whitman’s self-immolation yesterday for all its worth, has a new TV ad pledging to go all positive if she drops her negative ads. Which she won’t do, naturally. Brown late this afternoon announced a three-day/12-city series of rallies to close out his frontrunning campaign from Saturday through Monday evening, beginning and ending in Oakland. … Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in a live webcast this afternoon, unveiled a new TV ad against Prop 23, the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change program, with his friend director James Cameron. … New polling in Nevada’s heated Senate race shows Tea Party fave rave Sharron Angle with a slight edge over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. I’ll have more on this race, and its cultural implications, shortly.
** AFTER HER WOMEN’S CONFERENCE SELF-IMMOLATION, WHITMAN GOES ALL IN ON VICTIMIZATION CLAIM. After blowing it in spectacular fashion yesterday, billionaire Meg Whitman is going all-in on claiming victimization as her rationale for refusing to pull her negative advertising against Jerry Brown even if everyone else involved in the California governor’s race pulls theirs.
The flailing Republican went on Fox News this morning to claim that she’s been called “a liar, a whore, and a Nazi.”
Actually, she’s only been called a liar. And with good reason, as she has amply demonstrated that she is a liar.
No major candidate has ever had her or his advertising so excoriated and thoroughly debunked by fact-checking organizations.
I’ve devoted thousands of words myself to her many dishonest statements and ads.
No one called her a whore, either.
Someone, in what is almost certainly an illegally recorded private conversation, suggested typing her as a political whore for reneging on her supposed commitment to public pensions reform. Whitman’s campaign had a bogus transcript of the conversation produced and disseminated and falsely claimed that Brown himself had uttered the word, which is a commonplace in describing sell-out political behavior. No one has suggested that Whitman made her fortune providing sexual services.
I then revealed that not only was it not Brown himself who said it, it was not a man, either. Whitman knows very well that it was a woman, yet had her campaign lie in order to cast herself as a victim and distract from her illegal immigration scandal.
She wasn’t called a Nazi, either. Brown, in conversation while taking a jogging break a few weeks before the June primary, got into a conversation with someone he didn’t know who turned out to be a local radio reporter. This person, who appears on the air on a daily basis, sat on whatever it was that was said, then posted an account on his little-known blog right after the primary as Brown was spinning up campaign activity against the newly nominated Whitman.
No one noticed but the Whitman campaign, which immediately got the report featured on the Drudge Report.
Not that there’s anything the least suspicious about this.
Even the local radio reporter doesn’t claim that Brown called Whitman a Nazi. In his very detailed rendition of Brown’s comments, which he neither recorded nor took note of, Brown said that the Whitman campaign is following the propaganda techniques of Joseph Goebbels. Brown was then reading a book about the father of “Big Lie” propaganda campaigns. Which was not noted in the blog report.
For its part, the Brown campaign is calling on all participants in the governor’s race to cease all negative advertising.
“Just as I did yesterday, I am pledging again today to run only positive ads through Election Day if my opponent agrees to do the same,” Brown said. “Meg Whitman has now had a full day to consult with her image makers and political handlers and it’s time for each of us to put our best foot forward and end this campaign on a high note.”
Brown also expanded the pledge today, calling on all third party groups to stop airing negative campaign-related ads if the candidates reach an agreement.
“The agreement shouldn’t end with the candidates,” Brown said. “If Meg Whitman will join me in pledging to end the negative ads, all third party and independent expenditure groups should abide by the agreement and only run positive ads through Election Day.”
Brown’s campaign notes that Whitman has released 11 attack ads in the past 15 days, and has aired anti-Brown attack ads on 80,000 occasions since the primary during the course of her biggest-spending non-presidential campaign in American history.
** FIORINA TO RETURN TO CAMPAIGN TRAIL AFTER MISSING YESTERDAY AND TODAY. Ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, presently trailing Senator Barbara Boxer in their hard-fought California race, will return to the campaign trail tomorrow after missing two crucial days this week after being hospitalized from complications due to reconstructive post-cancer surgery.
Here is the campaign’s statement.
U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina’s Chief of Staff Deborah Bowker today issued the following statement:
“Since she was admitted to the hospital yesterday morning, Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer. This morning, her doctors gave her the good news that she will be released from the hospital today and can resume her busy campaign schedule tomorrow. Carly is grateful for the outpouring of well wishes and prayers from so many Californians. She is excited to get back on the campaign trail and to move forward toward a triumph over Barbara Boxer next Tuesday.”
Fiorina is in a hospital somewhere in Southern California.
** BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HOLDING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.The great Republican wave is going to crash against the Eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, if indeed it makes it across the Nevada desert. Despite running against the biggest spending candidate in American history, Jerry Brown is in command in the race for governor of California, the former governor and presidential contender close to completing an amazing comeback.
Senator Barbara Boxer is holding on despite being targeted by big-spending national Republican groups. And the initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program is going down in flames.
In five straight public polls, including one by Fox News, Brown’s lead over billionaire Meg Whitman ranges from 8 to 13 points. Reliable private polling has Brown up by nine. And that was before Whitman, her churlish attitude coming to the fore yesterday in a softball session with Brown and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, managed to get herself booed at Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach.
Barbara Boxer always looks more vulnerable than she turns out to be, and after nearly taking command of her race against ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at the beginning of the month, experienced slippage in private and some public polling. This prompted the national Republican Senate and Karl Rove operations to pour millions into the race, millions which could make more of a difference in a less expensive state. But Boxer’s position seems to have stabilized, with a boost coming from her and Brown’s rally at USC last week with President Barack Obama, and Fiorina’s has not. Reportedly suffering an infection from reconstructive surgery, Fiorina, a breast cancer survivor, was hospitalized on Tuesday. Her return to the campaign trail is not yet set.
The Boxer and Brown races are on somewhat separate tracks. She suffers from the overhang of a very unpopular Congress, which Brown, who has withstood the incredible onslaught of billionaire Meg Whitman’s campaign does not. He’s the ultimate anti-pol/ultra-pol, famed for his “insider’s knowledge/outsider’s mind.” But what is not on a separate track at all is the campaign over Proposition 23, the initiative to do away with the state’s program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost renewable energy, which stands as one of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s most cherished items of accomplishment. …
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 1 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a Violence Against Women event in the East Room; the Vice President also attends
At 2:35 PM Pacific, Obama tapes an interview for The Daily Show with Jon Stewart at the Harman Center for the Arts.
Obama is doing many interviews with TV and radio shows around the country, outside the glare of national publicity and off his public schedule.
First Lady Michelle Obama is in California, where she is campaigning with Senator Barbara Boxer.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
The U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had a lot more fun yesterday at First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference than Meg Whitman did.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles and the Mojave Desert today.
At 10:45 AM, Schwarzenegger will deliver remarks at the groundbreaking of BrightSource Energy’s Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System in Ivanpah, California, which is out near the border with Nevada. The project is the first of its kind to be built on federal land, producing 370 megawatts of renewable power and creating more than 1,000 jobs.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. … From my October 23rd feature.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $47 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama talked up small business yesterday in Rhode Island.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HANGING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.
** SCHWARZENEGGER, BROWN, AND WHITMAN SQUARE OFF IN A LIGHT SESSION ENDING BADLY FOR THE BILLIONAIRE. There was concern in all three camps — those of Jerry Brown, Meg Whitman and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger — about this afternoon’s session with NBC Today Show host Matt Lauer at the annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach.
Incidentally, Fox News has a brand new poll with Brown leading Whitman, 50% to 41%. And Public Policy Polling has it Brown over Whitman, 53-42.
To the extent that there was prepping for the substance suggested by the session’s title, “Who We Are, Where We Are Going,” it was largely unnecessary. Lauer conducted things as this was any afternoon talk show, albeit one with two and possibly three California governors on the same stage.
But in the end, it was clear that there were only two governors on the stage, as the dynamics ended with a great deal of crowd hostility directed at Whitman.
In between, we got to hear the three talk about their mothers, with Brown and Schwarzenegger telling some amusing stories about their childhoods and Whitman sounding canned per usual, and we got to hear Whitman and Brown discuss their confidants. And Schwarzenegger, as well, naming Maria Shriver and chief of staff Susan Kennedy.
Whitman cited her husband, Dr. Griff Harsh IV, which is less than convincing, and a few others including longtime consigliere Henry Gomez. And Brown cited Anne Gust Brown, who actually works with him every step of the way, and some unnamed people he likes to talk with on the phone, emphasizing that he loves to gather information and weigh different points of view.
At the end, Lauer sprang his surprise question, perhaps overstepping his bounds as moderator in the process. He challenged Brown and Whitman to take down their negative ads and only run positive ads.
After mulling the notion in his trademark think out loud manner, Brown — who leads in all the polls — said he would if she would.
But Whitman was having none of it, saying that she needs to educate the public about Brown’s unsuccessful record in public life. The crowd didn’t like this one bit, but the billionaire, who has quite a tin ear, didn’t catch on even as the jeers became widespread.
Brown played to the crowd, saying he has a new positive ad with Whitman saying how great things were in California 30 years ago, and pointing out that Brown was governor then. But so churlish had Whitman become by this point that she said she just had to point out that Brown lost a Senate race after his eight years as governor.
The crowd liked that even less.
For his part, Schwarzenegger, who got to briefly discuss his accomplishments and ideas with Lauer before Brown and Whitman came out, allowed as how Whitman had had a great career as a corporate executive, but bristled at her depiction of California as a basket case and described Brown as having been “a great governor.”
Considering that Whitman is trying to do much better with women voters, getting such a negative response at the Women’s Conference can only be regarded as a disaster for her.
** BROWN AND BOXER SET ELECTION NIGHT PARTIES NORTH AND SOUTH. Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer will be at opposite ends of California on election night.
The former governor-turned-attorney general will be in Oakland at the Fox Theater, renovated during his two terms as mayor of the gritty Bay Area city.
Senator Boxer will be at the Hollywood Renaissance Hotel in Los Angeles, along with a few other members of the Democratic ticket.
Why Oakland for Brown, who in two new public polls out today has a substantial lead over billionaire Meg Whitman in the race to succeed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger?
Well, it’s the place where his political career was revived and retooled following his runner-up bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992 and his stint as a sometimes controversial radio talk show host. I’ll have some stories about all that.
Boxer, like Brown, is also a San Francisco Bay Area native. But someone at the top of the ticket has to be in LA, and so it is the senator, who retains significant leads in the two new public polls.
** NEW SURVEY: SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE. The latest Gallup Poll survey of national consumer confidence shows a slight uptick. At least over the past few months.
But no one is popping champagne corks. And confidence is actually down slightly from a year ago.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -29 over the first four weeks of October — an improvement from -33 in September and from similar July and August readings. However, Americans’ optimism about the U.S. economy going forward is slightly worse today than it was at this time a year ago. …
The Economic Confidence Index consists of two sets of U.S. consumer ratings: one involving perceptions of current economic conditions and the other involving economic outlook.
The October improvement in the Economic Confidence Index is driven largely by an uptick in Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions. Over the first four weeks of October, 44% of Americans called current economic conditions “poor” — versus the 47% average of the prior three months. …
Consumers’ ratings of current economic conditions, as reflected by their “poor” ratings, are slightly less negative now than they were during October 2009, when they averaged -47.
Percentage Saying the Economy “Getting Worse” Essentially Flat
Over the first four weeks of October, 60% of consumers said economic conditions are “getting worse” — essentially the same as the 62% of September. These future expectations for the economy are slightly worse than the 57% average of October 2009. …
The improvement in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index during the first four weeks of October implies that the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index — which in September fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year — is likely to show an increase in October when announced on Tuesday. Similarly, Friday’s Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also likely to show improvement from its September final and mid-October levels. Of course, the small sample size of the Consumer Sentiment Index survey always makes estimating movements in this Index somewhat challenging.
It seems that the positive September stock performance on Wall Street and continued increases this month may be lifting the spirits of at least some Americans. While most Americans may not be focused on the Federal Reserve’s clear indications of additional quantitative easing, it seems obvious to many who are doing so that the Fed intends to do all it can to stimulate the U.S. economy and job creation.
The midterm elections may also be playing a role in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy, although what that role may be is unclear. Much of the discussion on both sides of the political spectrum has been on economic issues, and Gallup’s economic confidence data show slight improvements across party lines.
As noted earlier, expectations for the economy are essentially the same as they were in September, and slightly worse than they were a year ago.
Gallup’s initial measure of consumer Christmas spending intentions suggests that the nation’s retailers face another anemic holiday spending season this year. Despite its modest improvement in October, consumer confidence provides no basis for expecting much improvement at this point in time.
** FIORINA’S HOSPITALIZATION INTRODUCES AN UNWELCOME X FACTOR IN HER RACE AGAINST BOXER. One thing you definitely don’t want to have happen a week before an election, especially an election in which you’ve been showing a little momentum of late, is to be hospitalized. But that is what has just happened to ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, a cancer survivor who some think has been making a move on Senator Barbara Boxer.
Here’s the statement from the Fiorina campaign, issued just before 10 AM this morning.
U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina’s Chief of Staff Deborah Bowker today issued the following statement:
“Carly learned more than a year and a half ago that she, like millions of women, had breast cancer. After successfully battling cancer, she had reconstructive surgery this summer and remains cancer free today. However, this morning Carly came down with an infection associated with the reconstructive surgery and, as a result, she was admitted to the hospital to receive antibiotics to treat this infection. While this will impact her campaign schedule today, Carly is upbeat and her doctors expect her to make a quick and full recovery and be back out on the campaign trail soon. Carly is looking forward to getting back to her full campaign schedule and to defeating Barbara Boxer on November 2.”
Despite heavy outside spending on Fiorina’s behalf, Boxer still has the lead in this race. She even led by five points in the brand new Fox News poll, 43-38.
Jerry Brown leads billionaire Meg Whitman in that poll, released this morning, 50-41.
This is clearly a major problem for Fiorina. While it could win her sympathy, having to be hospitalized this close to the election will not build confidence among the large number of undecided voters that she can do the job if elected.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Obama meets with Defense Secretary Bob Gates in the Oval Office.
They have major AfPak matters to discuss, as well as the ongoing political disarray in Iraq, where nearly eight months have passed since national parliamentary elections and no new government has emerged. The impasse is beginning to seriously affect the security situation.
First Lady Michelle Obama is in California, where she will take part in California First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference in Long Beach, then campaign with Senator Barbara Boxer.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
As confirmation continues to emerge that the U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban, it emerges that fully one-quarter of all the votes in the recent national parliamentary are being thrown out on account of fraud. The U.S./NATO/Afghan offensive against the Taliban this year has stalled out. As has the Taliban offensive.
Reconciliation talks are underway, with only Mullah Omar left on the sidelines due to his tight relationship with Al Qaeda.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
Highlights from earlier iterations of the Women’s Conference, First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual gathering that has become one of the premier events for women in the world.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
At 1:30 PM, Schwarzenegger will participate in the moderated discussion, “Who We Are, Where We Are Going,” with gubernatorial candidates Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman at The Women’s Conference 2010. The discussion will be moderated by NBC News’ Today Show co-anchor Matt Lauer.
The event takes place in The Arena at the Long Beach Convention and Entertainment Center.
This unusual joint appearance will be the last face to face encounter between Brown and Whitman and the only event with the two of them and Schwarzenegger.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. He is on the verge of not only pulling off a return to the governorship of the nation’s largest state 28 years after he left it — California’s youngest ever elected governor back as its oldest governor — but also of besting the biggest-spending candidate in American history. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, won two terms but lost his bid for a third to Ronald Reagan. Only Chief Justice Earl Warren has won three terms as governor of California, until now.
After keeping the race even, with a little help from his friends, from the June primary till Labor Day weekend — thoroughly confounding Whitman’s plans and the expectations of many supposed experts, but playing out exactly as I wrote it throughout that period — Brown began moving into a slight lead once he finally went on the air.
That slender edge moved into the high single digits when the chickens came home to roost with regard to Whitman’s profound contradictions and hypocrisy on illegal immigration. Pounded incessantly by primary rival Steve Poizner, Whitman moved way to the right on illegal immigration, only to have her longtime illegal immigrant housekeeper surface at last charging the billionaire with exploitation.
But that, of course, did not end the race. All races end at the finish line, as Davis emphasized. Considering the many races he’s won, he’s certainly an expert. Of course, after winning a second term as governor in 2002, Davis lost office in 2003 in the dramatic California recall election which brought action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger to the governorship. He and Schwarzenegger have since become friendly, which is part of a much larger story. …From my October 23rd feature.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $49 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The California prison guards union has entered the fray in the California governor’s race with this devastating spot about billionaire Meg Whitman and her illegal immigration scandal. The trailing Whitman is hitting Jerry Brown claiming he is behind the revelation, which he is not, and claiming that he is a “job killer” who will endlessly raise taxes.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … BROWN IN COMMAND, BOXER HANGING ON, A BIG GREEN VICTORY IN THE MAKING.
** QUICK HITS.Will billionaire Meg Whitman throw more money after his record-shattering $140 million-plus in personal spending? Quite possibly, she tells ABC News. I expect it. Hey, it’s only money, right? … Whitman, trying to turn her race for governor of California against Jerry Brown around, says now that she would not appoint any judge who isn’t for the death penalty. … The Republicans’ Senate campaign committee, thinking that Senator Barbara Boxer is only one or two points ahead, has put another $3 million into the California Senate race behind ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. But Boxer turns out to be actually further ahead than that, though not as far ahead as the LA Times poll would have it, making the move problematic, especially considering how that money could be used in cheaper states. … San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris, a big Obama backer running for California attorney general targeted with a million dollars in attack ads financed by a committee headed by George W. Bush’s former aide Ed Gillespie, wants the committee to disclose its top two funders. But new rules requiring more disclosure don’t go into effect in California until the day after the election. …
** NEW POLL: REPUBLICANS LEAD GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL POLL. The new Gallup Poll, just over a week before the crucial mid-term elections, shows Republicans with a decided edge in generic Congressional polling.
But the Republican advantage is not yet enough to guarantee a takeover of the House of Representatives.
Republicans remain in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week’s midterm elections, although Democrats are doing slightly better now than they were early in October. Gallup’s latest two-week average on its generic ballot for Congress shows Republicans retaining a 48% to 44% margin among all registered voters, a 52% to 43% margin among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario, and a 55% to 41% margin in a low-turnout scenario. These likely voter advantages for the Republicans are slightly smaller than in previous weeks, reflecting in particular increased Democratic strength over the most recent days of interviewing. …
An increase in Democratic positioning in the last weeks of the midterm campaign is not historically atypical, nor is it necessarily surprising in light of the campaigning and efforts Democrats are putting forth as they work to narrow the enthusiasm gap Republicans have enjoyed all year.
However, Democrats would need to generate a substantial narrowing of the margin among likely voters over the last week of this campaign in order to prevent Republicans from gaining enough seats to take over control of Congress. Gallup’s statistical estimates based on historical U.S. House-vote data by party suggest that the Republicans need a 52% share of the two-party national House vote to be in a position to win control of the House.
More than 90% of Democratic and Republican likely voters continue to say they will vote for their party’s candidate in the House. This high degree of partisan loyalty has not changed substantially over the last four weeks.
Independent likely voters remain substantially more likely to support the GOP candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate. However, the Republican margin among independents has narrowed. Independents who are likely voters have moved from giving Republicans a 25-point advantage in late September/early October to a 15-point margin today. Under a low-turnout scenario, the Republican margin among independents has dropped from 29 points to 23 points.” …
Republicans remain more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats. Gallup has tracked a measure of enthusiasm since March, and at this point among registered voters, 48% of Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting in the elections, compared with 36% of Democrats. This 12-point Republican advantage on enthusiasm is slightly smaller than the enthusiasm margins obtained in late September and early October, and smaller than most of the margins measured from March through August.
The percentage of Americans who have given quite a bit of or some thought to the election has inched up slightly in recent weeks, as would be expected as the election draws nearer, from 46% in Gallup’s Sept. 23-Oct. 3 report to 51% now. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to have given quite a lot of or some thought to the elections, by a 62% to 49% margin.
Implications
American voters will be bombarded with intensified campaign efforts from all sides during the final week of the campaign. President Barack Obama this week alone will be campaigning for Democratic candidates in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Illinois, and Ohio. Vice President Joe Biden will be in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Iowa, Massachusetts, and in Ohio with President Obama. Both Democrats and Republicans will be spending millions more on broadcast commercials, mail material, and voter mobilization efforts.
The relatively stable voting intentions of registered voters over the last five weeks suggests that the basic, underlying structure of the race has not changed significantly — if all voters were to turn out and vote. Of course, that “100% voting” scenario will not occur, making the difference in turnout between those voting for each of the two major-party candidates a critical determinant of the election’s ultimate outcome.
Republicans have held the upper hand all year in terms of enthusiasm and turnout, giving their candidates clear advantages among likely voters. Democrats appear to have closed that gap a little, particularly when the last four days of Gallup’s interviewing are taken into account, and are thus doing slightly better in Gallup’s voting estimates. How much Democrats may be able to continue to close that gap, if at all, is the major story of the campaign’s final week, although at this point, the Republicans’ chances of taking over the House remain good.
A Canadian citizen held at Guantanamo Bay since he was 15 hopes to halt the first war crimes trial under President Barack Obama.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Needless to say, this is a most consequential week in presidential politics and California politics.
And needless to say, I will be happy when this election cycle is over and the odd technical outages that NWN has suffered from the spring onward, including this morning, suddenly come to an end.
In California politics, billionaire Meg Whitman, the erstwhile Internet maven, and her massively funded candidacy are down to last stand status. I will have more to say about Ms. Whitman and her campaign as the end of her campaign unfolds.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Whitman and her clear and present danger to democracy as we know it are going down. The only question is the margin.
Jerry Brown has a lead in the high single digits, as I’ve reported for weeks. The LA Times poll over the weekend, which I mentioned in the Weekend Edition, showing Brown leading Whitman by a whopping 52% to 39%, is a bit high in my view of things. And I have viewed Brown as the victor from the beginning, as longtime readers know very well.
Senator Barbara Boxer is holding on to a lead, but not the eight-point lead in the Times poll. Nevertheless, Boxer, with all her flaws, should win this race over ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorinia, who is too failed a CEO and too right-wing a candidate for California.
As I’ve suggested all along, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and his disparate allies will win a big victory on Proposition 23, the oil industry-fueled initiative to do away with California’s landmark climate change/renewable energy program. No on 23 has become a cause, winning not only a $5 million contribution from campaign co-chairman Tom Steyer but also massive contributions from legendary venture capitalist John Doerr, Bill Gates, Laurene Powell Jobs (wife of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs), the Google guys, James Cameron, and many more.
Schwarzenegger and company will also beat back an initiative to do away with his redistricting reform initiative.
Also in California, the drive to change the unusual requirement of a two-thirds legislative vote for passage of a state budget to a majority vote is looking good. But marijuana legalization, something hard to poll on, is not looking so good. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has an edge over Lieutenant Govenor Abel Maldonado, but Obama and Democratic favorite SF DA Kamala Harris has to come from behind against Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley in the race for state attorney general.
Elsewhere in America, I am fairly certain that Democrats will retain a majority in the U.S. Senate. But the House looks dicier.
In the midst of all this, President Barack Obama has a busy week.
On Monday, the president will travel to Woonsocket, Rhode Island, where he will tour the facilities of American Cord & Webbing, and deliver remarks to workers. Later, Obama will deliver remarks at an event and then at a dinner for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Obama returns to the White House tonight.
On Tuesday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House. This allows maximum flexibility for messaging and scheduling, as I’ve mentioned before.
On Wednesday, Obama will deliver remarks at a Violence Against Women event at the White House. Later, he will tape an interview for The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.
On Thursday, Obama will attend meetings at the White House.
On Friday, Obama will deliver remarks at an event on the economy in the Washington area.
Again, both days allow maximum flexibility for Obama in scheduling.
On Saturday, Obama will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to deliver remarks at a DNC event. The President will then travel to Bridgeport, Connecticut to deliver remarks at a DNC event. Later, the President will travel to Chicago, Illinois to deliver remarks at a DNC rally. Obama will spend the night at his home in Chicago.
These events will boost the candidacies of Admiral Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Senate race, state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal in the Connecticut Senate race, and Governor Pat Quinn and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois.
On Sunday, Obama will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to deliver remarks at a DNC rally. Vice President Joe Biden will also take part. The purpose is to boost Ohio Governor Ted Strickland in his tight race against former Congressman John Kasich. In the afternoon, Obama will return to Washington.
OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington and Rhode Island.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings and met with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
He then met with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.
At 11:30 AM Pacific, Obama departs the White House on Marine One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 11:45 AM Pacific, Obama departs Andrews Air Force Base on Air Force One en route to Warwick, Rhode Island.
At 12:55 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Warwick, Rhode Island.
At 1:40 PM Pacific, Obama tours American Cord & Webbing Co. in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks to workers in Woonsocket.
At 3:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reception at the Rhode Island Convention Center in Providence.
At 4:30 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DCCC dinner at a private residence in Providence.
At 5:15 PM Pacific, Obama departs Warwick, Rhode Island on Air Force One en route to Andrews Air Force Base.
At 6:25 PM Pacific, Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base, where he boards Marine One.
At 6:40 PM Pacific, Obama lands on the South Lawn of the White House
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
As confirmation continues to emerge that the U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban, it emerges that fully one-quarter of all the votes in the recent national parliamentary are being thrown out on account of fraud.
The U.S./NATO/Afghan offensive against the Taliban this year has stalled out. As has the Taliban offensive.
Reconciliation talks are underway, with only Mullah Omar left on the sidelines due to his tight relationship with Al Qaeda.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
Jerry Brown, seen in this Filipino TV news report, leads the race to succeed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
He has no scheduled public events.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. He is on the verge of not only pulling off a return to the governorship of the nation’s largest state 28 years after he left it — California’s youngest ever elected governor back as its oldest governor — but also of besting the biggest-spending candidate in American history. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, won two terms but lost his bid for a third to Ronald Reagan. Only Chief Justice Earl Warren has won three terms as governor of California, until now.
After keeping the race even, with a little help from his friends, from the June primary till Labor Day weekend — thoroughly confounding Whitman’s plans and the expectations of many supposed experts, but playing out exactly as I wrote it throughout that period — Brown began moving into a slight lead once he finally went on the air.
That slender edge moved into the high single digits when the chickens came home to roost with regard to Whitman’s profound contradictions and hypocrisy on illegal immigration. Pounded incessantly by primary rival Steve Poizner, Whitman moved way to the right on illegal immigration, only to have her longtime illegal immigrant housekeeper surface at last charging the billionaire with exploitation.
But that, of course, did not end the race. All races end at the finish line, as Davis emphasized. Considering the many races he’s won, he’s certainly an expert. Of course, after winning a second term as governor in 2002, Davis lost office in 2003 in the dramatic California recall election which brought action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger to the governorship. He and Schwarzenegger have since become friendly, which is part of a much larger story. …
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.”Turns out that it’s all Glen Bishop’s fault. Oh, and the negative ions. It’s the terrific if perplexing Season 4 finale of Mad Men, and as always there be spoilers ahead.
No, I didn’t see it coming beforehand. But as it unfolded in the season finale, very tellingly entitled “Tomorrowland,” Don Draper’s sudden proposal to his lovely and oh so young secretary Megan, whose last name we’d never heard before and about whom we know next to nothing, made perfect sense. From his point of view. And while I’ve been critical of some of the plotting in Season 4, this move felt like a key turning in a lock.
While the move is logical, is it also dopey? Oh, yes. But will it work? It just might. And if it doesn’t, Don has a second ex-wife, assuming they make it to the altar.
Is the greatest of season finales? No, it’s clearly not as good as the Season 3 finale, and perhaps not as good as the others. Yet there’s much we don’t know, as there usually is when we’re midway through a novel, and this is ultimately a novel for television. I have many thoughts about this, but first let’s run through the episode, during which some of what I think will be apparent, then get into more of it all.
It’s October 1965, and we’ve come not quite a year in Mad Men’s fourth season. A year in which, incidentally, the outside world of historical events hasn’t intruded much, in sharp contrast with previous seasons.
Don is getting ready to go to California with the kids. He has “a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.” … From my October 20th essay.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $48 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
Wikileaks founder Julian Assange discusses the biggest release of classified U.S. military documents, these on the Iraq War, in history. The info-dump came early Saturday.
** A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE BIGGEST RELEASE OF CLASSIFIED WAR DOCUMENTS IN HISTORY. I haven’t had the opportunity to focus in on the latest Wikileaks info-dump of nearly 400,000 classified U.S. documents on the Iraq War, but several thoughts occur.
First and foremost, it is yet more evidence that we live in a science fictional world. The rather shadowy Julian Assange, an Australian hacker, is a figure right out of a cyberpunk novel. As is the notion that massive amounts of secret documents, now all computerized, can be accessed and released simultaneously around the world despite the best efforts of governments and their intelligence services.
Actually, it’s very much like a scene in William Gibson’s Johnny Mnemonic, in which critical information subversive to the established order is flashed across the world via the Internet.
This time around, unlike the dump of Afghan War documents a few months ago, the names of potential victims of jihadist retribution have been redacted, at least in the publicly available versions here on the Wikileaks site. But not, I believe, in the versions given to Wikileaks’ conventional media partners in evaluating the meaning of the materials: the New York Times, the Guardian, Der Spiegel, Le Monde, and Al Jazeera.
Much of the coverage in the U.S. media, perhaps predictably, treats the revelations as nothing especially new. As far as I can make out in the middle of 11 other things, that’s not really accurate. According to Wikileaks, and confirmed by its media partners, we have several major new data points.
* There were substantially more Iraqis killed in the civil war, a good 15,000 more than previously reported.
* U.S. and U.K. forces either did little or turned a blind eye entirely when Iraqi forces engaged in torture and killing of insurgents and other political opponents.
* Iranian forces were much more involved in fomenting and in some cases directly participating in anti-U.S. military actions in Iraq, as well as influential in Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government.
These things are already having a serious impact. The UN is calling for war crimes investigations. In the UK at least, that is being taken very seriously.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has been struggling for over seven months to put together a government, is embarrassed and angry about the revelations, which may cause Sunnis to pull away further.
The Iranian revelations will increase tensions, which are already high.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington.
He has no scheduled public events.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
Later in the day, as is his custom, he will play golf at a military base in the Washington area.
** WITH HISTORY WAITING AT THE FINISH LINE, JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE OF THE RACE.“It’s all coming together,” former California Governor Gray Davis told me, “But we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves.” As we spoke on the phone late Friday morning, a few hours before the huge rally with President Barack Obama at USC, I could hear the very distinctive voice of Davis’s one-time boss, Jerry Brown, in the background of Davis’s Los Angeles law office.
“If we all do what we need to do,” said Davis, who served as Brown’s chief of staff during his first go-round as governor before launching a very consequential electoral career of his own, “we are going to prove the governorship of California is not for sale to the highest bidder.”
Jerry Brown is shaping up as potentially the biggest Democratic winner of the 2010 elections. He is on the verge of not only pulling off a return to the governorship of the nation’s largest state 28 years after he left it — California’s youngest ever elected governor back as its oldest governor — but also of besting the biggest-spending candidate in American history. Brown’s father, the legendary Governor Pat Brown, won two terms but lost his bid for a third to Ronald Reagan. Only Chief Justice Earl Warren has won three terms as governor of California, until now.
After keeping the race even, with a little help from his friends, from the June primary till Labor Day weekend — thoroughly confounding Whitman’s plans and the expectations of many supposed experts, but playing out exactly as I wrote it throughout that period — Brown began moving into a slight lead once he finally went on the air.
That slender edge moved into the high single digits when the chickens came home to roost with regard to Whitman’s profound contradictions and hypocrisy on illegal immigration. Pounded incessantly by primary rival Steve Poizner, Whitman moved way to the right on illegal immigration, only to have her longtime illegal immigrant housekeeper surface at last charging the billionaire with exploitation.
But that, of course, did not end the race. All races end at the finish line, as Davis emphasized. Considering the many races he’s won, he’s certainly an expert. Of course, after winning a second term as governor in 2002, Davis lost office in 2003 in the dramatic California recall election which brought action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger to the governorship. He and Schwarzenegger have since become friendly, which is part of a much larger story. …
This is not video beamed from the future of Jerry Brown supporters celebrating on the evening of the first Tuesday in November. These are San Francisco Giants fans celebrating the team’s clinching of the National League baseball championship with a victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants will face the Texas Rangers, once owned by George W. Bush, in the World Series.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SUNDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
He has no scheduled events.
His favored successor, Jerry Brown, is also in Los Angeles.
Brown is visiting African American churches this morning, with at least four on the schedule and more if he can make it, if I know him.
In the afternoon, the former governor-turned-attorney general holds a rally at his headquarters in the San Fernando Valley.
Senator Barbara Boxer also leads her Republican opponent, ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, 50% to 42%.
These numbers, especially the latter, seem a bit high to me. However, as I wrote in my Huffington Post feature yesterday, there were other signs late in the week that Brown’s lead was heading into double digits.
Brown, Whitman, and Schwarzenegger will all appear together at First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual Women’s Conference on Tuesday in Long Beach.
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama described the passage of his Wall Street reform legislation as a key moment and criticized Congressional Republicans for their near uniform opposition to the measure.
OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. President Barack Obama is in Nevada, Minnesota, and Washington, DC.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings.
Following big rallies yesterday in Los Angeles and Las Vegas, Obama is off to the Midwest on the final leg of his campaign swing.
Obama will travel to Minneapolis, Minnesota to attend an event for gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton, and will then attend an event for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee before he returns to Washington in the evening.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
As confirmation continues to emerge that the U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban, it emerges that fully one-quarter of all the votes in the recent national parliamentary are being thrown out on account of fraud.
The U.S./NATO/Afghan offensive against the Taliban this year has stalled out. As has the Taliban offensive.
Reconciliation talks are underway, with only Mullah Omar left on the sidelines due to his tight relationship with Al Qaeda.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
Wikileaks, which stunned the world with an info-dump on the Afghan War in August, and shocked many releasing video footage of a U.S. Apache helicopter crew killing journalists in Iraq, today dropped a massive info-dump of classified documents on the Iraq War.
The Pentagon has a large team of analysts scouring all documents which may be involved.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SATURDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles and Oakland today.
Schwarzenegger joined First Lady Maria Shriver and other distinguished guests this morning to tour and deliver remarks at The Modern House Call for Women, a groundbreaking three-day event that will provide a range of free medical, dental, financial and educational services to under-served women in the Long Beach area.
Later today, he attends the state NAACP convention at the Oakland Marriott.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.”Turns out that it’s all Glen Bishop’s fault. Oh, and the negative ions. It’s the terrific if perplexing Season 4 finale of Mad Men, and as always there be spoilers ahead.
No, I didn’t see it coming beforehand. But as it unfolded in the season finale, very tellingly entitled “Tomorrowland,” Don Draper’s sudden proposal to his lovely and oh so young secretary Megan, whose last name we’d never heard before and about whom we know next to nothing, made perfect sense. From his point of view. And while I’ve been critical of some of the plotting in Season 4, this move felt like a key turning in a lock.
While the move is logical, is it also dopey? Oh, yes. But will it work? It just might. And if it doesn’t, Don has a second ex-wife, assuming they make it to the altar.
Is the greatest of season finales? No, it’s clearly not as good as the Season 3 finale, and perhaps not as good as the others. Yet there’s much we don’t know, as there usually is when we’re midway through a novel, and this is ultimately a novel for television. I have many thoughts about this, but first let’s run through the episode, during which some of what I think will be apparent, then get into more of it all.
It’s October 1965, and we’ve come not quite a year in Mad Men’s fourth season. A year in which, incidentally, the outside world of historical events hasn’t intruded much, in sharp contrast with previous seasons.
Don is getting ready to go to California with the kids. He has “a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.” … From my October 20th essay.
** WHAT’S IN A WORD? What’s in a word? When the word is “whore,” quite a lot. And yet, when it comes to the reality of California politics, not so much.
Pushed along by bad reporting and outright journalistic promotion of a campaign stunt, the story of the voicemail recording of Jerry Brown discussing with advisors billionaire Meg Whitman’s backing away from her supposed public pension reform imperatives in pursuit of a police union endorsement got a lot of attention. Not because it showed the supposed labor patsy Brown hanging tough with unions, but because an unnamed advisor wondered if they ought to type Whitman as a “whore.” Which frankly, considering the serious implications of the massive hypocrisy involved, is an insult to sex workers.
Oddly, no one reported that it was actually a woman who said it until I did, first on my blog, New West Notes, then here on the Huffington Post. Now the the rest of the press accepts and reports that the reference was made by a female, which obviously puts an entirely different spin on the matter than if it were Brown himself or another man. Even the state president of the National Organization for Women, which backs Brown, calls Whitman a “political whore.”
And what is the upshot after days of hyperventilation? Not much. Brown was ahead of Whitman before and he’s ahead of her now. Three very good private polls over the last few days give Brown a seven or eight point lead. Even the Republican Rasmussen poll, notorious for skewing conservative, put Brown in the lead on Friday, 50% to 44%.
Naturally, Whitman chief strategist Mike Murphy claims that he has not one but two private polls showing Whitman ahead by four points. Talk about doubling down on nonsense. … From my October 16th feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil closed at $81.69 per barrel on Friday. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
This is up about $48 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
President Barack Obama, joined by former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown and Senator Barbara Boxer, addressed a huge rally today at the University of Southern California.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN HEADS INTO THE FINAL CURVE.
** CALIFORNIA 2010: OBAMA LIGHTS IT UP IN L.A., BROWN PUNCHES IT UP, WHITMAN FLAILS AND SPINS, BOXER HANGS ON. President Barack Obama came to USC this afternoon to light some afterburners under a California Democratic ticket that was already doing pretty well, and appears to have succeeded. A huge crowd of 30,000 to 40,000 came to see the president, who was joined by gubernatorial frontrunner Jerry Brown and Senator Barbara Boxer, as well as L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, U.S. Labor Secretary and former LA Congresswoman Hilda Solis, San Francisco DA and state attorney general hopeful Kamala Harris, Assembly Speaker John Perez and others, including Oscar-winning actor Jamie Foxx.
Rally-goers lined up for hours and did not appear to be disappointed by what they got. Obama looked relaxed and energized. His fundraisers are going well, and Obama associates report that he was jazzed by his rally yesterday in Seattle, which they viewed as one of the best of the year.
Until this one, that is.
“I don’t want to fool anybody,” declared Obama, “even though this is a magnificent crowd, because this will be a tough election. This has been a difficult election. Families saw their incomes between 2001 and 2009 drop by five percent. Families couldn’t afford to send their kids to college, couldn’t afford to take their kids to the doctor. We lost four million jobs before I took office, 600,000 the month after that. We hadn’t seen anything like this since the 1930s.
“My hope was that in this moment of crisis, we could come together and both parties would put politics aside. That we would come together to meet this once in a generation challenge, because while we are proud to be Democrats, we are prouder to be Americans. And there are plenty of Republicans who feel the same way out there.
But the Republican leaders in Washington made a different calculation. They took a look at the mess they had left me, and said, boy, this is a really big mess. Unemployment will be high for a while, and people will be angry and frustrated. So if we just sit on the sidelines, and point their finger at Obama and say it’s his fault. And they figured that you would forget who caused the mess, and they would ride the anger to election day. But you haven’t forgotten.
“Their whole campaign strategy is amnesia. So you need to remember that this election is a choice between the policies that got us into this mess, and the policies that will lead us out. I don’t know about you, but I want to move forward, Trojans.”
Fortunately for Brown and Boxer, each of whom is an effective speaker — especially Brown, when he gets rolling — they preceded Obama’s performance.
I spoke with former Governor Gray Davis, Brown’s gubernatorial chief of staff the first time around, today before the rally. He’s guardedly optimistic about the election. Of course, he’s never been known as a wild-eyed optimist, to say the least. I’ll have more.
When Brown spoke, he delivered what he calls a “ferverino.” It’s a Catholic term referring to an affirmation of the faith.
Brown declared that in the California he envisions as governor, “We don’t scapegoat anybody,” clearly referring to the notably confused immigration policies of his flailing billionaire opponent, Republican Meg Whitman.
In the California he envisions, “we don’t need Saudi Arabian oil or Texas gas. We have the California sun.”
With renewable energy and conservation, the new green technologies he says he’s determined to turn into the next economic boom for California, “We can create the green jobs of the future for everybody that’s here. California has a place for all of us, not just the ones at the top.”
“Gandhi said we have enough for our need,” Brown noted, “but not enough for our greed. We’re going to win this election for the least powerful, because we can empower them to be the power of the future.”
For her part, Boxer, who is in a tougher race against ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, declared: “These are difficult times, and I don’t sugarcoat it. The other side, they want to take us back. Back to the Bush policies. Those didn’t work, did they? The other side is trying to depress voter turnout. They are hoping that you won’t notice the choice in this election. They even sent out an ad telling Latino voters to stay home. Well, we are not staying home. We will vote, and we will win, because we are the people of California.”
Boxer is hanging on to a slight edge in her race against Fiorina, who just put another million of her personal funds into the campaign. Boxer has spent more recently, but outside groups, which won’t disclose their contributors, are evening up the odds for Fiorina.
In the governor’s race, Brown is retaining the lead in the high single digits that he has had for the past two weeks, and which is reflected in the new Public Policy Institute of California poll. There are some signs in the past 24 hours that his lead is increasing beyond that, but Davis was cautious when I brought that up with him.
A reliable private poll has Brown up by seven points among Californians who have already voted by mail.
Against this backdrop, the Whitman campaign took the extraordinary but predictable step this afternoon of releasing its purported private poll, supposedly showing Whitman only three points behind Brown. As if on cue, another group, the so-called Small Business Action Committee — actually a group almost always funded by big business that spent millions attacking Brown but would not disclose the true source of its funding — released its own purported poll also showing Brown up by only three points.
Frankly, I’ve lost track of the various polling scenarios that Camp Whitman has promulgated in the last few weeks. They’ve all been out of phase with reality.
Just as I’ve lost track of the many recent anti-Brown attack ads that Whitman has thrown up there.
** NEW SURVEY: NATIONAL JOBLESS RATE STAYS UP. Some bad news for the country, and the Obama Administration. In advance of official unemployment figures, the Gallup Poll has a new survey showing that unemployment is at a threshold national average..
It’s 10.0% nationally. And it’s well over 12% in California, unchanged from last month at 12.4%.
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 10.0% in mid-October — essentially the same as the 10.1% at the end of September but up sharply from 9.4% in mid-September and 9.3% at the end of August. This mid-month measurement confirms the late September surge in joblessness that should be reflected in the government’s Nov. 5 unemployment report.
Certain groups continue to fare worse than the national average. For example, 14.2% of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.8% of those with no college education were unemployed in mid-October.
Fewer Working Part Time Looking for Full-Time Employment
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is at 8.6% of the workforce, not much different from the 8.7% at the end of September, but well below the 9.2% reading in the middle of last month.
The decline in part-time workers wanting full-time work has led to a situation in which underemployment is declining even as unemployment is increasing. The 18.6% mid-October underemployment figure (the sum of the 10.0% unemployed and the 8.6% employed part time but wanting full-time work) is down slightly from 18.8% at the end of September and is the same as the reading in the middle of last month.
Gallup’s unemployment measure showed a sharp increase to double digits at the end of September, before seasonal adjustment. The mid-October measurement suggests the resulting double-digit unemployment rate has been maintained during the first half of the current month. In turn, this suggests that the government will report an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate for October.
In this regard, Gallup modeling suggests the government’s unemployment rate report for October will be in the 9.7% to 9.9% range when it is released Nov. 5. The government’s last report showed the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, as Gallup anticipated. In addition to seasonal adjustments, the official unemployment rate is likely to be held down by a continued exodus of people from the workforce. It is easy for potential workers to become discouraged when the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 9% through the end of 2011.
In this regard, the lack of increase in Gallup’s underemployment measure when the unemployment rate is increasing would normally be a good sign for jobs and the economy. However, the current decline in the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is not necessarily positive. It might be that some workers who are employed part time are losing their jobs — becoming unemployed or dropping out of the workforce — and are not being replaced, while new part-time workers are not being hired.
Regardless, Gallup’s employment data continue to reveal little good news for consumer spending, retailers, or the unemployed as the holidays approach.
President Barack Obama joined Senator Patty Murray for a big rally yesterday in Seattle at the University of Washington. Obama appears at a big rally today at USC with former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown and Senator Barbara Boxer.
OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in California and Nevada.
Obama has received the daily intelligence and economic briefings.
At 10:15 AM Pacific, he departs San Francisco on Air Force One en route to Los Angeles.
At 11:20 AM Pacific, Obama arrives in Los Angeles.
At 12:45 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at an event for Senator Boxer at the Ronald Tutor Campus Center, University of Southern California.
At 1:55 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC rally in Alumni Park at the University of Southern California.
Obama will be joined by the frontrunner for governor of California, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, Senator Barbara Boxer, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
At 3:25 PM Pacific, Obama tapes an interview for the Piolin Show at Piolin Productions Studio in Glendale. Piolin is a tremendously popular Spanish language radio host.
At 4:30 PM Pacific, Obama departs Los Angeles on Air Force One en route to Las Vegas, Nevada.
At 5:30 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in Las Vegas.
At 6:10 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC rally at Orr Middle School Park in Las Vegas.
He will be joined by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
At 7:45 PM Pacific, Obama attends a dinner for Senator Reid at a private residence in Las Vegas.
Reid is in a dead heat race for re-election with Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle. It’s a measure of how unpopular Reid is that Angle, a massively ignorant person, has a chance of winning a seat in the United States Senate.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
As confirmation continues to emerge that the U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban, it emerges that fully one-quarter of all the votes in the recent national parliamentary are being thrown out on account of fraud.
That’s a million votes, folks.
The U.S./NATO/Afghan offensive against the Taliban this year has stalled out. As has the Taliban offensive.
Reconciliation talks are underway, with only Mullah Omar left on the sidelines due to his tight relationship with Al Qaeda.
Wikileaks is preparing another massive info-dump of classified documents, this time on Iraq.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
Wikileaks, which stunned the world with an info-dump on the Afghan War in August, and shocked many releasing video footage of a U.S. Apache helicopter crew killing journalists in Iraq, is prepping a massive info-dump of classified documents on the Iraq War.
The Pentagon has a large team of analysts scouring all documents which may be involved.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
He has no scheduled public events.
His favored successor, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, appears with President Barack Obama this afternoon at a big rally at the University of Southern California.
Trailing billionaire Meg Whitman’s campaign reported late yesterday that it has spent over $163 million by October 16th with another $12 million still on hand.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.”Turns out that it’s all Glen Bishop’s fault. Oh, and the negative ions. It’s the terrific if perplexing Season 4 finale of Mad Men, and as always there be spoilers ahead.
No, I didn’t see it coming beforehand. But as it unfolded in the season finale, very tellingly entitled “Tomorrowland,” Don Draper’s sudden proposal to his lovely and oh so young secretary Megan, whose last name we’d never heard before and about whom we know next to nothing, made perfect sense. From his point of view. And while I’ve been critical of some of the plotting in Season 4, this move felt like a key turning in a lock.
While the move is logical, is it also dopey? Oh, yes. But will it work? It just might. And if it doesn’t, Don has a second ex-wife, assuming they make it to the altar.
Is the greatest of season finales? No, it’s clearly not as good as the Season 3 finale, and perhaps not as good as the others. Yet there’s much we don’t know, as there usually is when we’re midway through a novel, and this is ultimately a novel for television. I have many thoughts about this, but first let’s run through the episode, during which some of what I think will be apparent, then get into more of it all.
It’s October 1965, and we’ve come not quite a year in Mad Men’s fourth season. A year in which, incidentally, the outside world of historical events hasn’t intruded much, in sharp contrast with previous seasons.
Don is getting ready to go to California with the kids. He has “a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.” … From my October 20th essay.
** WHAT’S IN A WORD? What’s in a word? When the word is “whore,” quite a lot. And yet, when it comes to the reality of California politics, not so much.
Pushed along by bad reporting and outright journalistic promotion of a campaign stunt, the story of the voicemail recording of Jerry Brown discussing with advisors billionaire Meg Whitman’s backing away from her supposed public pension reform imperatives in pursuit of a police union endorsement got a lot of attention. Not because it showed the supposed labor patsy Brown hanging tough with unions, but because an unnamed advisor wondered if they ought to type Whitman as a “whore.” Which frankly, considering the serious implications of the massive hypocrisy involved, is an insult to sex workers.
Oddly, no one reported that it was actually a woman who said it until I did, first on my blog, New West Notes, then here on the Huffington Post. Now the the rest of the press accepts and reports that the reference was made by a female, which obviously puts an entirely different spin on the matter than if it were Brown himself or another man. Even the state president of the National Organization for Women, which backs Brown, calls Whitman a “political whore.”
And what is the upshot after days of hyperventilation? Not much. Brown was ahead of Whitman before and he’s ahead of her now. Three very good private polls over the last few days give Brown a seven or eight point lead. Even the Republican Rasmussen poll, notorious for skewing conservative, put Brown in the lead on Friday, 50% to 44%.
Naturally, Whitman chief strategist Mike Murphy claims that he has not one but two private polls showing Whitman ahead by four points. Talk about doubling down on nonsense. … From my October 16th feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $47 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
The closing ad in the 2003 election of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Seven years ago, in one of the most spectacular elections ever staged, or for that matter, held, the voters of California recalled their just re-elected Governor Gray Davis and installed a new governor, bodybuilding champion-turned-action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Here is my account of the early weeks of the Schwarzenegger transition, in my role then as chief political writer for the LA Weekly.
LA Weekly
Thursday, October 23 2003
THE FAHNTAHSTIC TRANSITION
ARNOLD’S EMBRACE OF THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT IS NOT THAT STRANGE
By Bill Bradley
The voice on the cell phone sounded somewhat familiar. But not so familiar that I didn’t ask who it was. “It’s Arnold,” he said. The action-movie superstar turned governor-elect of California had just come from the dentist. And he sounded a little tired. But no less ebullient than usual, allowing as how “the governor thing,” as I call it, seemed to be working out. “I’m going to do a book,” said Schwarzenegger. “How To Become a Governor in 60 Days.”
Ja. Fantastic.
Actually, the early reviews are good for the landslide winner of California’s historic recall election. Even if they are a little misleading.
No less an authority than Jerry Brown, who was the last California governor of any particular interest to the public and who created Gray Davis by making him his chief of staff, says of the advent of Arnold: “There is a refreshing note to all of this.” Schwarzenegger, the maverick Democratic mayor of Oakland notes, “ran against special interests, said he’ll do right by the people and has shown unprecedented good will with bipartisan appointments to his transition team.” Or, to put it another way, hasta la vista, Gray.
Jerry Brown is always interesting and an old friend, but, ah, he’s not quite right. Much has been made, by Schwarzenegger and now by the media — which, in classic front-running mode, mostly trashed him as a candidate and mostly love him as a big winner — of the new governor’s transition team, which, as he puts it, “goes from the right with Bill Simon to the left with Willie Brown.” Credulous journos note that Willie Brown, the legendary Democratic power-broker Assembly speaker turned San Francisco mayor, strongly backed Davis in the election and opposed Schwarzenegger. But the truth, as is often the case, is more than a little different than it appears. Like the Schwarzenegger transition team, this window is very well-dressed.
Yes, Willie Brown is a famously partisan Democrat who fiercely and very publicly opposed the Davis recall. But no matter what the dapper don of Democratic politics said, he was never really especially opposed to Schwarzenegger. Indeed, the two men repeatedly campaigned together last year for the actor/businessman’s winning Proposition 49 afterschool programs initiative. Talking at a San Francisco reception last fall about the Weekly’s report that Schwarzenegger quietly polled about his prospects as a write-in candidate in last year’s gubernatorial election, the former self-styled “ayatollah of California politics” said, “I told Gray he better stop calling on Bill Simon to drop out of the race” (after Simon falsely claimed he had a photo of Davis illegally accepting a contribution in his Capitol office), “because if he does Arnold will run as a write-in and he will win!” Last summer, after the governor’s lightly attended anti-recall kickoff rally in San Francisco, built around the disastrous Democratic theme that the recall would lead to a right-wing takeover, I asked Willie Brown what he would do if his moderate friend Arnold ran for governor. Seeming startled, he wanted no part of the question. “We would just have to beat him,” he said, before abruptly changing the subject.
So Willie Brown’s inclusion is really no surprise, especially since he is not all that left-wing these days. With his term-limited tenure as mayor drawing to a close and a possible run for the term-limited John Burton’s state Senate seat looking dicey due to Brown’s unpopularity in Marin County, the man whose record-setting tenure as Assembly speaker sparked the term-limits movement can use a new gig.
Schwarzenegger’s transition team does represent the bipartisanship he promises, with other big-name Democrats including several Angelenos: Mayor Jim Hahn, former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (who is definitely not window-dressing and is quite active in transition planning) and Michael Dukakis’ presidential campaign manager, Susan Estrich. But it is a group of mostly insiders, and a study of the roster shows it to skew heavily to the moderate conservative end of the spectrum, with corporate credentials predominating.
While Schwarzenegger notes correctly that only a few Pete Wilson alums made the team, the most important transition figure is probably one who is not on the list. And he is very much a Wilson alum.
Former Wilson chief of staff Bob White is the Jonathan Higgins of Team Arnold. Like the character in the old Magnum, P.I. TV series, White, a moderate himself who consults with major corporate interests, is the affable and very knowing major-domo who helps the rambunctious star and his crew find their way through mysterious circumstances. Don’t be surprised if a lot of insiders with similar credentials end up with big jobs.
A certain element of studied marketing shows in Schwarzenegger’s presentation of his transition team, and it should be no surprise. This is a guy who studied the showmanship and salesmanship of Muhammad Ali. The team is notably light on labor leaders (perhaps no surprise, since labor bet very heavily on Davis) and environmentalists. Nevertheless, Schwarzenegger is reaching out to environmentalists. Already pleased by a New York Times editorial, “Conan the Green,” extolling Schwarzenegger’s ideas, top environmental lobbyist John White says he was impressed by a private conference call with a key Schwarzenegger adviser.
The Fahntahstic Transition
Arnold’s embrace of the right and the left is not that strange
By Bill Bradley Thursday, Oct 23 2003
…continued from page 1
The opening ad in action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign in the dramatic 2003 California recall election.
Schwarzenegger, of course, is cagey about personnel, holding his cards close to the vest. And it may be that political insiders put too much stock in appointees, which makes sense, since most operatives and reporters deal only with staff.
In terms of policy direction, Schwarzenegger — who has already shown a propensity for leaving his advisors in the dust when he feels like it — is more outgoing, insisting that he will govern from the center with major moves to shake things up.
But his balancing act between enough insiderdom to be effective in the Capitol and the much promised and very popular outsiderdom he espouses will be important to watch closely.
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Schwarzenegger was amused when I told him he had been spotted during a post-election Sun Valley jaunt at the annual running of the sheep through the streets of Ketchum, the quaint village (in Arnoldspeak) best known to the world that cannot afford pricey ski villas as the site of Ernest Hemingway’s shotgun suicide. “Your spies are everywhere,” he said.
My spies also told me that Schwarzenegger held a transition meeting during the Sun Valley trip. Among those participating with the new governor was Donna Tuttle, wife of the late Reagan kitchen cabineteer Holmes Tuttle, someone not widely seen as a populist outsider.
Schwarzenegger’s Conan Cometh, er, California Comeback statewide bus tour culminated in a roaring rally of 10,000 Schwarzenegger enthusiasts outside the state Capitol on the Sunday before the election. The audience, which screamed its approval of the broom-wielding action hero’s dramatic vow to “clean house here,” is taking a great deal on faith with our Gulfstream Governor.
Schwarzenegger and Davis have their first meeting October 23. Amazingly, the two men had never met, and had never spoken before the governor conceded on election night.
How is it possible that Davis — who has been in and around Hollywood for 30 years — had managed not to be acquainted with Schwarzenegger, who has many Democratic friends?
The outgoing governor lost Warren Beatty’s phone number no fewer than four times when I gave it to him in the early ’90s. Beatty was Kathleen Brown’s key backer in Hollywood, and Davis was looking for a Hollywood buddy. But Davis proved to be much more comfortable with executives than with stars, a reason why I felt he might well stumble in a debate with Schwarzenegger, despite his greater command of governmental detail, even if he managed to secure a debate with the former Mr. Universe as a Hail Mary play to save his governorship.
Davis was never comfortable in debates, facing the bumbling Bill Simon only once during last year’s re-election campaign. Davis advisers say the governor demanded so much preparation with staff that he usually lost whatever performance he had in him before he ever got to the debate. We will never know if Davis would have been intimidated by the movie star, who is famous for his psyching out of opponents in bodybuilding and movies.
Davis was very friendly to Schwarzenegger in his election-night call, perhaps surprisingly so given the venom of his personal attacks on the governor-elect during the snarling close of the campaign. But he and his staff seem to be rising above the rancor of the campaign and their shock at its massive outcome, so the transition between the outgoing and incoming administrations is going more smoothly than many feared.
President Barack Obama campaigned yesterday in Portland with former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber, who after a break of eight years is in a tight race in his race for a third term as governor against a former NBA player.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … JERRY BROWN APPROACHES THE FINAL CURVE.
** CALIFORNIA 2010: JERRY BROWN’S LEAD, THE MONEY GAME, AND UNEVEN SURROGATES. The final round-up campaign finance reports prior to the election are dribbling out now. Signfiicant contributions and expenditures between now and the election will be electronically reported on a piecemeal basis.
While I wait to see what billionaire Meg Whitman has to report, I note that she will appear with fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the independent third-term mayor of New York, tomorrow in San Jose. Bloomberg, a titan of the financial news business, has been perturbed of late with criticism of Wall Street. Whitman’s sure no critic.
While the billionaires praise each other at Zazzle, which I believe makes festive t-shirts and holiday cards, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown will appear with President Barack Obama at a big rally at the University of Southern California.
Brown held a rally today at San Diego State University. Later his campaign released campaign finance figures with eye-popping numbers.
Brown took a lot of heat from the consultant class, pundits, bloggers, journos, etc. for keeping his power dry for nearly the entirety of his campaign for governor. It was what I called his Zen rope-a-dope strategy and it worked.
And well, Brown is firing his guns now.
After raising over $37 million for the campaign, a few million more than Anne Gust Brown told me would be raised, and spending less than $11 million through the end of September, all hell is breaking loose on the Brown side. His spending is up to $25.5 million through October 16th, and he had another $11.6 million cash on hand then.
Brown spent $14.6 million between October 1st and October 16th. And he’s making these moves now with a significant lead in the polls.
I’ve been reporting for the past two weeks that he has a high single digits lead in private polling. And that’s just what he has in the new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, where the margin is 44% to 36%. PPIC doesn’t push undecideds for a lean, which accounts for the high undecided.
As I’ve reported was happening, Latinos are breaking heavily for Brown, moderates are breaking for Brown, liberals are solidifying for Brown, women are breaking for Brown — despite the media distraction with the use by a female associate of the word “whore” to describe Whitman’s political machinations — and Whitman is desperately trying to prevent further major separation in the race.
What I called the flailing Whitman campaign two weeks ago is trying attack ad after attack ad in a frantic effort to gain traction in the race.
** NEW POLL: THE PALIN TEA PARTY DRAG FACTOR. If House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a problem for Democratic candidates in much of the U.S., then so too is ex-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin a problem for Republicans. A new Gallup Poll shows that Palin is a big prod and plus for Republicans in their echo chamber, but a big problem and negative with independents. And she’s even more motivating for Democratic voters than anyone on the Democratic side is for Republicans. Motivating in the sense that she is an ultimate political hobgoblin figure.
By the same token, she is far less positively motivating for Republicans voters, in a stretch run for voter turnout, than former President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama are for Democratic voters.
Sarah Palin’s impact on Republican voters is more positive than negative, with 40% of registered Republicans saying they would be more likely to vote for a local candidate for whom she campaigns and 9% less likely to. At the same time, the impact of her campaigning is more negative than positive for independent voters — and overwhelmingly negative for Democratic voters.
Palin’s 31-percentage-point net positive impact on Republican voters is easily less than Bill Clinton’s 48-point net positive impact and Barack Obama’s 42-point net positive impact on Democratic voters. In this sense she is less of an asset to Republican candidates than the marquee Democratic campaigners are to Democratic candidates. On the other hand, her campaigning on behalf of a candidate is less likely to have a negative impact on independent voters than Obama’s, -16 vs. -27. Also, Palin’s -68 point net negative impact on Democratic voters is on par with Obama’s -69 net negative impact on Republican voters.
The results are from a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 14-17, just before the former Alaska governor began a two-week road trip to campaign on behalf of Tea Party candidates leading up to the midterm congressional elections.
Not surprisingly, Palin’s positive influence is greater among conservative Republicans than among moderate and liberal Republicans, including independents who lean Republican. Among conservative Republicans — 62% of whom are Tea Party supporters — 44% say Palin’s campaigning on behalf of a local candidate would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, and 6% say it would make them less likely to do so. This 38-point net positive impact narrows to 7 points among moderate and liberal Republicans, 25% of whom say Palin’s campaigning would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 18% of whom say it would make them less likely to do so. …
While Palin’s influence on Republican voters as a whole is more positive than negative, the concentration of this influence among conservative Republicans underscores the risk factor she brings to the campaign trail. Although her influence on moderate and liberal Republicans is more positive than negative, this is true to a much smaller degree and is more than doubly outweighed by her negative impact on independents. This reality is likely already clear to Republican candidates who have chosen not to appear with Palin on her trips through their area.
Overall, Palin appears to be less of a helpful force on the campaign trail for Republicans than Obama and Clinton are for Democrats. While Palin’s influence on independents is less negative than Obama’s, the finding that Palin turns off Democrats as much as Obama turns off Republicans is certainly one to consider as Palin mulls the viability of a presidential run in 2012.
OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington state and California.
At 10 AM Pacific, Obama meets with a Seattle family at their private residence.
At 10:10 AM Pacific, Obama holds a discussion on women and the economy.
At 11:40 AM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a rally for Senator Patty Murray at the University of Washington in Seattle.
At 1:20 PM Pacific, Obama departs Seattle on Air Force One en route to San Francisco.
At 3 PM Pacific, Obama arrives in San Francisco.
At 5:40 PM Pacific, Obama attends an event for San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for California attorney general, at a private residence in Atherton.
He also attends a DNC reception elsewhere on the grounds.
At 7 PM Pacific, Obama delivers remarks at a DNC dinner at a private residence in Palo Alto.
Incidentally, that Obama fundraiser for Kamala Harris and DNC reception takes place at the Atherton home of ex-eBay honcho and former state Controller-turned-greentech venture capitalist Steve Westly, one of his earliest and biggest backers. The other high-roller fundraiser is at the Palo Alto home of Google vice president Marissa Mayer.
These events were originally going to be in San Francisco. But the White House wisely decided that it would not be a good idea to risk blowing both the governorship and the Senate race by shutting down the Bayshore Freeway just prior to the San Francisco Giants playing in the potential deciding game of the National League Championship Series.
So rather than have the presidential motorcade head north, it will head south, safely in the other direction from the hordes of Giants fans.
Obama is monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Iraq.
As confirmation continues to emerge that the U.S. and NATO are supporting secret negotiations between Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government and the Taliban, it emerges that fully one-quarter of all the votes in the recent national parliamentary are being thrown out on account of fraud.
The U.S./NATO/Afghan offensive against the Taliban this year has stalled out. As has the Taliban offensive.
Reconciliation talks are underway, with only Mullah Omar left on the sidelines due to his tight relationship with Al Qaeda.
The governance situation in Iraq remains unresolved more than seven months after national parliamentary elections.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles and San Francisco today.
At 9 AM, Schwarzenegger will deliver remarks at the U.S.-Russia Business Council Annual Meeting 2010, entitled From Silicon Valley to Skolkovo: Forging Innovation Partnerships, at the Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco.
Brown has opened up a significant lead over billionaire Meg Whitman.
In the PPIC rendition of it, his eight-point lead is 44% to 36%.
The poll was embargoed till last night at 9 PM, which is why I didn’t report on it yesterday, but numerous media outlets broke the embargo hours beforehand.
But since the poll tells nothing that NWN readers haven’t known for weeks, I didn’t follow suit.
… THE CALIFORNIA AS FIRST “FAILED STATE” DEBATE: SCHWARZENEGGER, DAVIS, WHITMAN, AND JERRY BROWN. … From my March 2nd column.
An ancient galaxy has entered the record books after being confirmed as the most distant object yet discovered in the universe.
** MAD MEN‘S SURPRISING YET LOGICAL FINALE: DON DRAPER GOES ALL CALI IN “TOMORROWLAND.”Turns out that it’s all Glen Bishop’s fault. Oh, and the negative ions. It’s the terrific if perplexing Season 4 finale of Mad Men, and as always there be spoilers ahead.
No, I didn’t see it coming beforehand. But as it unfolded in the season finale, very tellingly entitled “Tomorrowland,” Don Draper’s sudden proposal to his lovely and oh so young secretary Megan, whose last name we’d never heard before and about whom we know next to nothing, made perfect sense. From his point of view. And while I’ve been critical of some of the plotting in Season 4, this move felt like a key turning in a lock.
While the move is logical, is it also dopey? Oh, yes. But will it work? It just might. And if it doesn’t, Don has a second ex-wife, assuming they make it to the altar.
Is the greatest of season finales? No, it’s clearly not as good as the Season 3 finale, and perhaps not as good as the others. Yet there’s much we don’t know, as there usually is when we’re midway through a novel, and this is ultimately a novel for television. I have many thoughts about this, but first let’s run through the episode, during which some of what I think will be apparent, then get into more of it all.
It’s October 1965, and we’ve come not quite a year in Mad Men’s fourth season. A year in which, incidentally, the outside world of historical events hasn’t intruded much, in sharp contrast with previous seasons.
Don is getting ready to go to California with the kids. He has “a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.” … From my October 20th essay.
** WHAT’S IN A WORD? What’s in a word? When the word is “whore,” quite a lot. And yet, when it comes to the reality of California politics, not so much.
Pushed along by bad reporting and outright journalistic promotion of a campaign stunt, the story of the voicemail recording of Jerry Brown discussing with advisors billionaire Meg Whitman’s backing away from her supposed public pension reform imperatives in pursuit of a police union endorsement got a lot of attention. Not because it showed the supposed labor patsy Brown hanging tough with unions, but because an unnamed advisor wondered if they ought to type Whitman as a “whore.” Which frankly, considering the serious implications of the massive hypocrisy involved, is an insult to sex workers.
Oddly, no one reported that it was actually a woman who said it until I did, first on my blog, New West Notes, then here on the Huffington Post. Now the the rest of the press accepts and reports that the reference was made by a female, which obviously puts an entirely different spin on the matter than if it were Brown himself or another man. Even the state president of the National Organization for Women, which backs Brown, calls Whitman a “political whore.”
And what is the upshot after days of hyperventilation? Not much. Brown was ahead of Whitman before and he’s ahead of her now. Three very good private polls over the last few days give Brown a seven or eight point lead. Even the Republican Rasmussen poll, notorious for skewing conservative, put Brown in the lead on Friday, 50% to 44%.
Naturally, Whitman chief strategist Mike Murphy claims that he has not one but two private polls showing Whitman ahead by four points. Talk about doubling down on nonsense. … From my October 16th feature.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
This is up about $47 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
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