The Federal Reserve notes some improvement in the economy, but is keeping interest rates at record lows.
** OBAMA STATE OF THE UNION EXCERPTS.
We face big and difficult challenges. And what the American people hope – what they deserve – is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work through our differences; to overcome the numbing weight of our politics. For while the people who sent us here have different backgrounds and different stories and different beliefs, the anxieties they face are the same. The aspirations they hold are shared. A job that pays the bill. A chance to get ahead. Most of all, the ability to give their children a better life.
You know what else they share? They share a stubborn resilience in the face of adversity. After one of the most difficult years in our history, they remain busy building cars and teaching kids; starting businesses and going back to school. They are coaching little league and helping their neighbors. As one woman wrote to me, “We are strained but hopeful, struggling but encouraged.”
It is because of this spirit – this great decency and great strength – that I have never been more hopeful about America’s future than I am tonight. Despite our hardships, our union is strong. We do not give up. We do not quit. We don’t allow fear or division to break our spirit. In this new decade, it’s time the American people get a government that matches their decency; that embodies their strength. And tonight, I’d like to talk about how together, we can deliver on that promise. …
By the time I’m finished speaking tonight, more Americans will have lost their health insurance. Millions will lose it this year. Our deficit will grow. Premiums will go up. Co-pays will go up. Patients will be denied the care they need. Small business owners will continue to drop coverage altogether. I will not walk away from these Americans. And neither should the people in this chamber. …
Rather than fight the same tired battles that have dominated Washington for decades, it’s time for something new. Let’s try common sense. Let’s invest in our people without leaving them a mountain of debt. Let’s meet our responsibility to the people who sent us here.
To do that, we have to recognize that we face more than a deficit of dollars right now. We face a deficit of trust – deep and corrosive doubts about how Washington works that have been growing for years. To close that credibility gap we must take action on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue to end the outsized influence of lobbyists; to do our work openly; and to give our people the government they deserve.
That’s what I came to Washington to do. That’s why – for the first time in history – my Administration posts our White House visitors online. And that’s why we’ve excluded lobbyists from policy-making jobs or seats on federal boards and commissions.
But we cannot stop there. It’s time to require lobbyists to disclose each contact they make on behalf of a client with my Administration or Congress. And it’s time to put strict limits on the contributions that lobbyists give to candidates for federal office. Last week, the Supreme Court reversed a century of law to open the floodgates for special interests – including foreign companies – to spend without limit in our elections. Well I don’t think American elections should be bankrolled by America’s most powerful interests, and worse, by foreign entities. They should be decided by the American people, and that’s why I’m urging Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to right this wrong.
I’m also calling on Congress to continue down the path of earmark reform. You have trimmed some of this spending and embraced some meaningful change. But restoring the public trust demands more. For example, some members of Congress post some earmark requests online. Tonight, I’m calling on Congress to publish all earmark requests on a single website before there’s a vote so that the American people can see how their money is being spent. …
** QUICK HITS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who got a thumbs down on his conceptually sound but in practice rather confusing proposal to make sure that prison spending doesn’t continue to outstrip university spending, got a thumbs up today from the California Legislative Analyst Office on his proposal to cut the salaries of state workers during the ongoing state budget emergency. … House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, smarting from the left over President Barack Obama’s limited budget freeze proposal, said today that defense spending should be frozen as well. With major ground forces still engaged in two wars, a global intelligence war raging, and deep popular concern about security, that’s not going to happen. … Obama will talk tonight about a path forward on national health care reform, which was on the verge of final passage when last week’s Massachusetts upset occurred.
** DEMS STILL HOLD EDGE IN GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT. Despite the post-Massachusetts hullabaloo, Democrats still have a slight edge over Republicans in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. It’s 44% to 42%. (I understand the edge is much bigger in California.)
Intriguingly, this is a slight improvement from last week, when it was 41% to 41%.
But the enthusiasm factor currently favors Republicans. Which is only natural, considering how demoralized Democrats have become.
I’ll let you in on a little secret. Democrats like to feel bad about their prospects. Think back to the endless handwringing in the 2008 election, when it was obvious that Republican strategists were standing on their heads in desperation to remain competitive.
Looking ahead to the November midterms, our NBC/WSJ poll shows that 44% of registered voters prefer a Dem-controlled Congress, versus 42% who want a GOP-controlled one. Last week’s survey showed a 41%-41% tie on this question. But Republicans continue to enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage. Voters who are most interested in the midterms prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by eight points, 49%-41%. And those who say they blame BOTH Democrats and Republicans side with GOP on the generic ballot by a 2-to-1 margin. But the poll also shows that the midterm cake isn’t baked just yet, although the ingredients certainly are there. Low-interest voters prefer Democrats on the generic ballot by 10 points, 47%-37% — so if they turn out, Democrats have a chance to minimize their midterm losses. What’s more, the survey provides some evidence that Obama might be more of an asset than a liability in November: 37% say their vote will be a signal of support for the president, while 27% say it will be a signal of opposition; 35% said it won’t signal anything about Obama. By comparison, just days before the ‘06 midterms, Bush was a -15 net negative on that question.
** OREGON VOTERS RAISE TAXES ON CORPORATIONS AND THE VERY AFFLUENT. In a very interesting election yesterday in Oregon, voters chose to raise taxes on corporations and high-income people.
Measure 66, raising taxes on individuals making $125,000 per year and households making $250,000 per year, passed on a vote of 54% to 46%. Measure 67, raising the state’s minimum tax on corporations and corporate tax rates, passed 53% to 47%.
The top income tax rate in Oregon before yesterday’s vote was 9%, somewhat lower than California’s top rate of 10.3%. Oregon’s new rate is 11%.
Proponents of the tax hike measures, principally funded by public employee and teacher unions, outspent the anti-tax coalition (which included Nike), $6.9 million to $4.6 million.
A big selling point on the tax hike side was Oregon’s very low minimum corporate rate of $10 per year, which affected most Oregon companies and had been in effect since 1931. (The new corporate minimum is $150 per year.) Another big selling point was the need to prevent further erosion of the schools and public services.
President Barack Obama’s inauguration and inaugural address on January 20th, 2009. The new president was introduced by California Senator Dianne Feinstein.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington today.
Obama has received his daily intelligence and economic briefings in the Oval Office.
At 11 AM Pacific, he meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
At 6 PM Pacific, Obama delivers the State of the Union address.
At 8:30 AM Pacific, Vice President Joe Biden hosts a luncheon meeting with Kurdistan Regional Government President Masoud Barzani at the Naval Observatory. Kurdistan, of course, is part of Iraq.
At 1:30 PM Pacific, Biden hosts athletes and coaches from the Special Olympics at the White House.
Obama is spending much of the day finalizing and prepping for tonight’s State of the Union address.
The State of the Union comes at a critical moment for Obama, and for the nation. While his personal favorability remains high, Obama’s national job approval rating has descended from its once Olympian heights to the high 40s. (It’s still in the high 50s in California.)
Obama and the Democrats placed great stock in passing a sweeping near universal health care reform bill, spending months of painstaking negotiation and dealmaking on it.
And taking quite a few hits in the process, even as the economic recovery, which began at last some months ago, proved sluggish and jobs-free and public anger rose over a bailed-out Wall Street seeming to return to its old ways.
But the thinking was that the national health care reform bill, having gotten further than any such effort in the past century, passing both houses of Congress, would at last be reconciled and enacted. Giving Obama immediate benefits to tout in a rescheduled State of the Union. Which would mark the beginning of a major sales effort on the benefits of the bill, as well as a pivot to a heavy focus on jobs and reining in financial excess.
This strategy, of course, was thoroughly disrupted by the avoidable debacle in last Tuesday’s Massachusetts special election for the late Senator Ted Kennedy’s old seat.
The problem was that everything took too long, allowing plenty of time to focus on the customary sausage-making of the legislative process.
Remember that Massachusetts state law was changed to allow the appointment of longtime Kennedy ally Paul Kirk as the interim senator. That was for the express purpose of maintaining the 60-vote filibuster-proof Senate majority, in order to pass the national health care bill.
But the process dragged on much longer than it was supposed to have. And now Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are finding that they don’t have a clear path forward on health care.
It’s all rather reminiscent of what happened in California in 2007. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had won his second landslide election as governor, then spent virtually all of 2007 working on a universal health care program which my old colleague, MSNBC commentator Lawrence O’Donnell, amusingly likened to Hillary Clinton’s plan. In the end, it passed the state Assembly and stalled in the Senate, precipitating the decline of Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating.
Restoring the economy and creating jobs will be the main themes of President Barack Obama’s first State of the Union address.
As president, Obama has the advantage of having a great deal more power than a state governor. He has real levers over the economy (and a business cycle that is starting to turn), a big economic stimulus already enacted that is mostly unspent, and likely more stimulus ahead. Not to mention his role as Commander-in-Chief.
Tonight Obama is expected to focus on economic revival efforts and on blossoming federal red ink.
Obama will propose something of a freeze on federal spending, but only in limited fashion. Independent voters are wary of all the goverment spending of the past year on bailing out the financial system and stimulating the economy, which in turn comes on top of the record deficits that Obama inherited from the Bush/Cheney White House. And there is creditor concern over America’s heavy deficit spending.
The federal government, unlike, say, the State of California, can borrow and print money for its day to day operations. Which in the Bush/Cheney era included massive unfunded federal programs and tax cuts for the wealthy and two overseas wars.
Obama’s proposed three-year freeze on spending covers programs for which Congress appropriates money every year, such as parks, air traffic control, education, and farm subsidies. It does not include defense and security spending, foreign aid, veterans benefits, or entitlements such as Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.
It also does not include a second economic stimulus package of $150 to $200 billion, which passed the House last month.
Obama is also monitoring geopolitical crises in Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq.
The big international conference on Afghanistan convenes tomorrow in London. And negotiation with the Taliban, as well as amnesty for many, is suddenly all the rage.
I think the play is to go for a coalition government in Kabul. Students of history will recall that Robert F. Kennedy proposed a “coalition government” for Vietnam in 1966.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles today.
At 10:45 AM, following his tour of SunPower Systems in Richmond, he holds a press conference highlighting his proposal to exempt green tech manufacturing equipment from the state sales tax as part of his job-creation initiative.
The event will be webcast live on www.gov.ca.gov.
At 5:40 PM, Schwarzenegger walks the red carpet at Universal Studios in Universal City and co-hosts the premiere of Nuclear Tipping Point, a new documentary film on the threat of nuclear proliferation.
The film features former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry (a Californian), former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia, and former Secretaries of State George Shultz and Henry Kissinger.
** SCOTT BROWN NEED NOT APPLY: CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS IN THE POST-ARNOLD ERA. Is there a Scott Brown-like figure to surprise California Democrats this year? No. The politicians who are vying to replace Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as the ranking California Republican could scarcely be less like Scott Brown. Or, for that matter, Schwarzenegger.
The Republican who takes on wily Democratic Attorney General Jerry Brown — the former governor, presidential candidate, and Oakland mayor — will be not a pickup truck-driving pseudo-independent but a plutocrat hugging the far right rail of the current Republican primary.
The Republican who takes on feisty Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer will be not a populist-sounding moderate inveighing against the manipulations of entrenched wealth and power but a golden parachute corporate CEO, a fringe right state legislator, or an intellectual ex-congressman whose faculty advisor was Milton Friedman.
And none of them will be a global icon with a common touch. … From my January 26th column.
** WHAT SCOTT BROWN KNEW IN 2010 AND BARACK OBAMA KNEW IN 2008. This past Tuesday night, the politics of positioning beat the politics of branding. As it frequently does. Scott Brown figured it would. As Barack Obama did in 2008. … From my January 22nd column.
** 24 NATION. Well, 24 has returned, with a vengeance. The controversial hit TV series, one of the key shows of the past decade, is proving relevant in this decade, too. As recent polling clearly shows, it turns out that its hardball ethos on terrorism resonates just as well in the Obama Era as it did in the Bush/Cheney years. … From my January 19th column.
** THE LAST CLINTON MELODRAMA? (AND OTHER SENSATIONALIST GAME CHANGE GOSSIP) … From my January 14th column.
** OBAMA’S SECURITY PROBLEMS: THE MEDIA, CHENEY AND, OH YES, THE ISSUE. … From my January 12th column.
** THE BAND OF THE DECADE: THE BEATLES?! What does it say that the biggest musical group of the first decade of this new millennium recorded its last album 40 years ago? … From my January 1st essay.
** THE COMMON THREADS OF AVATAR. Is Avatar the future of cinema? Probably. … From my December 22nd essay.
** HOW JERRY BROWN CLEARED THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD FOR GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA. … From my December 9th column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th, 2009 Huffington Post column.
** HELP FOR HAITI.
You can donate to the new Clinton Bush Haiti Fund, www.clintonbushhaitifund.org, by clicking here.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $75 per barrel.
This is up about $41 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
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| Comments (42) |
Obama’s Inaugural Address was very good.
The economy is what he should do now.
That’s what he’s been doing.
It was a terrific Inaugural, not soaring, sober minded.
Jonas Blane says:
January 27, 2010 at 9:10 am
Obama’s Inaugural Address was very good.
Hey, did you see Dan Walters’ latest lazy column on “the Massachusetts effect?” Does he get paid for that? There’s nothing there.
I’ve already got health care, I want the economy to get revving.
Meg Whitman sounds even worse than Gruesome Gavin Newsom. I don’t have any choice but to vote for Jerry Brown.
You’re not exactly alone there.
>#
Len says:
January 27, 2010 at 10:04 am (Edit)
I’ve already got health care, I want the economy to get revving.
Where’s Schwarzeneger?
He’s done a ton on the economy, but he has to do more and emphasize more.
>#
Jonas Blane says:
January 27, 2010 at 9:13 am (Edit)
The economy is what he should do now.
#
Capitol Boy says:
January 27, 2010 at 9:47 am (Edit)
That’s what he’s been doing.
Yes, it was.
Of course many criticized it at the time for not being more idealistic and optimistic sounding.
> Jonas Blane says:
January 27, 2010 at 9:10 am (Edit)
Obama’s Inaugural Address was very good.
I don’t knew. He probably flew up from LA and drove from Oakland.
> Ann says:
January 27, 2010 at 10:58 am (Edit)
Where’s Schwarzeneger?
More video today?
Thanks, Bill, for the excellent Huffington post feature on the California Republicans. They sound determined to be very conservative before we ever heard of Sarah Palin. Before we ever heard of Tea Parties.
Wow! Can that happen in California?
** OREGON VOTERS RAISE TAXES ON CORPORATIONS AND THE VERY AFFLUENT. In a very interesting election yesterday in Oregon, voters chose to raise taxes on corporations and high-income people.
Public employee unions out-spent business in Oregon? Don’t see that happening in California.
There’s no $10 a year corporate tax in California, either…
Yeah, great stuff. Nice of the Reeps to play along so nicely since 2007, too.
They can’t get out of their own trap.
lorena says:
January 27, 2010 at 11:42 am
Thanks, Bill, for the excellent Huffington post feature on the California Republicans. They sound determined to be very conservative before we ever heard of Sarah Palin. Before we ever heard of Tea Parties.
Obama was pretty realistic in that speech.
Too bad the Dems screwed the pooch in Mass.
Jonas Blane says:
January 27, 2010 at 9:10 am
Obama’s Inaugural Address was very good.
Good news news video on interest rates.
I like this!
** DEMS STILL HOLD EDGE IN GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT. Despite the post-Massachusetts hullabaloo, Democrats still have a slight edge over Republicans in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. It’s 44% to 42%. (I understand the edge is much bigger in California.)
The best post yet.
lol
The SOTU excerpts look good!
Yes, if rather generic so far.
Shocking. Positively shocking.
> Capitol Boy says:
January 27, 2010 at 2:43 pm (Edit)
I like this!
** DEMS STILL HOLD EDGE IN GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT. Despite the post-Massachusetts hullabaloo, Democrats still have a slight edge over Republicans in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. It’s 44% to 42%. (I understand the edge is much bigger in California.)
They’re doing exactly what was anticipated.
> Jack Aubrey says:
January 27, 2010 at 2:07 pm (Edit)
Yeah, great stuff. Nice of the Reeps to play along so nicely since 2007, too.
They can’t get out of their own trap.
It’s certainly not a perfect parallel.
> Jack Aubrey says:
January 27, 2010 at 2:06 pm (Edit)
Public employee unions out-spent business in Oregon? Don’t see that happening in California.
There’s no $10 a year corporate tax in California, either…
I don’t know.
> Capitol Boy says:
January 27, 2010 at 12:04 pm (Edit)
Wow! Can that happen in California?
** OREGON VOTERS RAISE TAXES ON CORPORATIONS AND THE VERY AFFLUENT. In a very interesting election yesterday in Oregon, voters chose to raise taxes on corporations and high-income people.
You’re welcome.
> lorena says:
January 27, 2010 at 11:42 am (Edit)
Thanks, Bill, for the excellent Huffington post feature on the California Republicans. They sound determined to be very conservative before we ever heard of Sarah Palin. Before we ever heard of Tea Parties.
These Republcians wouldn’t applaud Obama is he presented Osama bin Laden’s head to them.
Well, that was the greatest – and most effective, hopefully – SOTU address I have seen.
Of course, the president once again failed to take the opportunity to publically and profusely thank his treasury secretary for … well, for EVERYTHING. After that performance, though, I may just be willing to forgive him … again.
I thought that President Obama was thoughtful and strong, heartfelt where it needed to be.
I feel good about his presidency.
Barack nailed it! He is back on track.
President Obama said so little on the international affairs.
I’m afraid, sergei, that we don’t factor in much to the SOTU.
What new video today?
The SOTU’s a hit in the polls. I figured it would be.
Indeed.
The State of the Union, and the London conference on Afghanistan.
> Jonas Blane says:
January 28, 2010 at 6:08 am (Edit)
What new video today?
This time out, yes.
But in reality, no.
>#
sergei says:
January 28, 2010 at 3:59 am (Edit)
President Obama said so little on the international affairs.
#
Elizabeth Miller says:
January 28, 2010 at 5:50 am (Edit)
I’m afraid, sergei, that we don’t factor in much to the SOTU.
It was good. I actually don’t like State of the Union addresses, for a variety of reasons.
> Elizabeth Miller says:
January 27, 2010 at 7:23 pm (Edit)
Well, that was the greatest – and most effective, hopefully – SOTU address I have seen.
I think we’ll see some of that footage in the fall …
> Jack Aubrey says:
January 27, 2010 at 6:28 pm (Edit)
These Republcians wouldn’t applaud Obama is he presented Osama bin Laden’s head to them.