After a chaotic day into night of evanescent negotiation in Copenhagen, President Barack Obama said a “meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough” had been reached among the U.S., China and three other countries on an effort to curb climate change. But there is clearly an enormous amount of work to be done.
** QUICK HITS. After a fairly chaotic day of negotiations at the highest level in Copenhagen, the US, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa agreed to work to keep temperature rise to less than 2 degrees celsius (3.6 degrees fahrenheit) and to fund efforts to help poorer nations. But there are no binding targets on emissions, no cap and trade market, no, well, you get the picture. In general terms, this went as poorly as I expected. (See Wednesday’s column linked below.) There is more detail, but you get the gist. And then there’s the question of all the other nations. China was quite obstructionist and agreed to even this only after two lengthy meetings today between President Obama and Premier Wen. And Obama had a weak hand to play coming from America, where the sheerest obstructionism has barely ended, as still the biggest thing going is California’s program. … Iran briefly invaded Iraq and seized an oil field along the border today, then withdrew. There were no casualties. I started getting emails about this at 6 AM. What’s it about? Probably a signal of what can happen if Israel conducts air strikes on Iran’s rogue nuclear facilities. … With passage of a national health care reform bill in sight, Republican senators have a new obstructionist tactic. Forcing the reading of entire amendments to the bill, even if they are not going anywhere. This is a backdoor filibuster, designed to avert passage of the bill before Christmas.
** A LITTLE HOLIDAY ECONOMIC CHEER? It was announced this morning that California’s unemployment rate has dipped from 12.5% to 12.3%. Which is certainly better than an increase. And in better news, a new Gallup survey indicates that there may be a late surge in Christmas spending.
The average amount of money Americans predict they will spend on Christmas gifts this season is now $743, up from last month’s estimate and a healthy increase over Americans’ Christmas spending forecast at this time a year ago. Based on the latest Christmas spending estimate, Gallup forecasts that holiday sales this year have the potential to show a modest increase of 1% — marking a shift from last year, when Christmas spending was down 3.4% from the previous year.
This is still lower than it was before the recession.
** 9:30 AM UPDATE: President Obama will hold a second bilateral meeting today with Chinese Premier Wen at 10 AM Pacific in Copenhagen. He’s meeting now with other world leaders seeking to move some sort of “Copenhagen Accord” forward. But not, apparently, with a committment for binding targets to be adopted at the end of 2010.
There is to be another UN climate summit in December 2010, in Mexico City, as I’ve discussed before. And there may be a “subnational” summit in Los Angeles prior to that.
In Copenhagen today, President Barack Obama said that the world’s will to address climate change “hangs in the balance” and insisted that any deal must include transparency among nations.
** OBAMA REMARKS TO THE U.N. CLIMATE SUMMIT’S MORNING PLENARY SESSION.
Good morning. It’s an honor to for me to join this distinguished group of leaders from nations around the world. We come together here in Copenhagen because climate change poses a grave and growing danger to our people. You would not be here unless you – like me – were convinced that this danger is real. This is not fiction, this is science. Unchecked, climate change will pose unacceptable risks to our security, our economies, and our planet. That much we know.
So the question before us is no longer the nature of the challenge – the question is our capacity to meet it. For while the reality of climate change is not in doubt, our ability to take collective action hangs in the balance.
I believe that we can act boldly, and decisively, in the face of this common threat. And that is why I have come here today.
As the world’s largest economy and the world’s second largest emitter, America bears our share of responsibility in addressing climate change, and we intend to meet that responsibility. That is why we have renewed our leadership within international climate negotiations, and worked with other nations to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. And that is why we have taken bold action at home – by making historic investments in renewable energy; by putting our people to work increasing efficiency in our homes and buildings; and by pursuing comprehensive legislation to transform to a clean energy economy.
These actions are ambitious, and we are taking them not simply to meet our global responsibilities. We are convinced that changing the way that we produce and use energy is essential to America’s economic future – that it will create millions of new jobs, power new industry, keep us competitive, and spark new innovation. And we are convinced that changing the way we use energy is essential to America’s national security, because it will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and help us deal with some of the dangers posed by climate change.
So America is going to continue on this course of action no matter what happens in Copenhagen. But we will all be stronger and safer and more secure if we act together. That is why it is in our mutual interest to achieve a global accord in which we agree to take certain steps, and to hold each other accountable for our commitments.
After months of talk, and two weeks of negotiations, I believe that the pieces of that accord are now clear.
First, all major economies must put forward decisive national actions that will reduce their emissions, and begin to turn the corner on climate change. I’m pleased that many of us have already done so, and I’m confident that America will fulfill the commitments that we have made: cutting our emissions in the range of 17 percent by 2020, and by more than 80 percent by 2050 in line with final legislation.
Second, we must have a mechanism to review whether we are keeping our commitments, and to exchange this information in a transparent manner. These measures need not be intrusive, or infringe upon sovereignty. They must, however, ensure that an accord is credible, and that we are living up to our obligations. For without such accountability, any agreement would be empty words on a page.
Third, we must have financing that helps developing countries adapt, particularly the least-developed and most vulnerable to climate change. America will be a part of fast-start funding that will ramp up to $10 billion in 2012. And, yesterday, Secretary Clinton made it clear that we will engage in a global effort to mobilize $100 billion in financing by 2020, if – and only if – it is part of the broader accord that I have just described.
Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a clear formula – one that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord – one that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international community.
The question is whether we will move forward together, or split apart. This is not a perfect agreement, and no country would get everything that it wants. There are those developing countries that want aid with no strings attached, and who think that the most advanced nations should pay a higher price. And there are those advanced nations who think that developing countries cannot absorb this assistance, or that the world’s fastest-growing emitters should bear a greater share of the burden.
We know the fault lines because we’ve been imprisoned by them for years. But here is the bottom line: we can embrace this accord, take a substantial step forward, and continue to refine it and build upon its foundation. We can do that, and everyone who is in this room will be a part of an historic endeavor – one that makes life better for our children and grandchildren.
Or we can again choose delay, falling back into the same divisions that have stood in the way of action for years. And we will be back having the same stale arguments month after month, year after year – all while the danger of climate change grows until it is irreversible.
There is no time to waste. America has made our choice. We have charted our course, we have made our commitments, and we will do what we say. Now, I believe that it’s time for the nations and people of the world to come together behind a common purpose.
We must choose action over inaction; the future over the past – with courage and faith, let us meet our responsibility to our people, and to the future of our planet. Thank you.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Copenhagen today, then en route to Washington.
Obama received his daily intelligence briefing while flying to Copenhagen on Air Force One.
The time in Copenhagen is nine hours later than California.
Following his arrival in Copenhagen, Denmark around midnight Pacific time, Obama and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen were scheduled to hold a bilateral meeting.
Instead of that, given the crisis state of the talks, Obama held a multilateral meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Fakruddin Ahmed, Brazilian President Luiz Lula da Silva, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, South African President Jacob Zuma, Mexican President Felipe Calderon, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.
Obama then delivered brief remarks during the morning plenary session of the UN climate summit.
After that, Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabo held an hour-long bilateral meeting.
Obama then participated in the official photos of heads of state and government, followed by a 45-minute bilateral meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva.
At 6 AM Pacific, Obama participates in the afternoon plenary session.
At 7:30 AM Pacific, Obama holds a bilateral meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.
Obama will depart Copenhagen sometime after that, with scheduling a bit up in the air pending events.
Obama is working on salvaging something from the deeply troubled UN climate summit in Copenhagen. See my latest piece linked below on what’s happening, what’s not happening, and why, and where it can go from here.
** NEW ESSAY COMING UP … COMMON THREADS: AVATAR AND THE FILMS OF JAMES CAMERON.
James Cameron was a young filmmaker with a background in B movies when he teamed up with Arnold Schwarzenegger to make The Terminator, the first of three collaborations to reach the screen. Today Cameron’s Avatar, the most expensive film in history, opens around the world.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Los Angeles today.
At 11:30 AM, Schwarzenegger delivers remarks at a ceremony where Oscar-winning filmmaker James Cameron will be honored with the 2,396th star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
That takes place on Hollywood Boulevard in front of the historic Egyptian Theatre.
Cameron and Schwarzenegger worked together on The Terminator, Terminator 2: Judgement Day, and True Lies.
Cameron also directed a little film called Titanic.
The event is timed to coincide with the global launch today of Cameron’s new film, Avatar.
At 5:30 PM, Schwarzenegger participates in a Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony at the Martin Luther King Hospital in South Los Angeles. Schwarzenegger brokered a deal between the University of California Board of Regents and Los Angeles County to reopen the hospital in 2013.
This event will be webcast live on www.gov.ca.gov.
The state Senate yesterday passed a compromise bill — opposed by the California Teachers Association — to qualify California for Obama Administration education challenge grants. But the Assembly won’t take it up till next month. The federal deadline is a month away.
** COPENHAGEN BLUES: OBAMA’S WEAK HAND ON CLIMATE, AND THE CALIFORNIA OPTION. As he prepares to go to Copenhagen for the deeply troubled UN climate change summit, President Barack Obama does so with a weak hand. He has no enacted legislation to brandish, no binding agreements on big greenhouse gas cuts with some of the biggest polluters, and no big financing to aid the developing world of poorer nations.
Aside from that, it’s really great.
Obama has cobbled together some impressive looking cards. But starting from the zero point that was bequeathed him by the Bush/Cheney Administration, and with far less congressional support than many imagine, he’s nowhere near ready to sign a new Copenhagen Protocol, were one to emerge, which it will not. …
** OBAMA’S LINCOLNESQUE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE. Who expected, two months ago when the surprise award was announced, that President Barack Obama, in accepting his Nobel Peace Prize, would deliver a speech that in many respects is about the ethics of war? …
But Obama’s emergence as more the liberal warrior than the reflexive dove surprises me not in the least, for I was paying close attention to what the president said and wrote before and during his campaign. … From my December 11th column.
** HOW JERRY BROWN CLEARED THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD FOR GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA. How did former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown clear the Democratic field for governor of California over half a year before next year’s primary election? Without even announcing his candidacy for governor? Let’s count the ways as we set the stage for one of the biggest races in America next year.
Most California political experts did not expect this result. The state’s much diminished press corps anticipated a big primary fight. Nor was Jerry Brown expected to be the easy winner. In fact, a site run by well-known state Democratic consultants put up an online poll in early 2007 to gauge early insider support for possible candidates. And, amusingly, neglected to include Brown. Despite the fact that the two-term former governor, two-time Democratic presidential runner-up, and two-time mayor of rugged Oakland had just won the biggest victory of any contested statewide race. Bigger even than Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s landslide 17-point romp over his Democratic challenger.
Even after the main rivals to Brown dropped out, some kept pushing ever more unlikely prospects forward. Only to see them vanish like a desert mirage. Nevertheless, some amongst the thinned ranks of California reporters and bloggers still imagine that Brown and his capable and witty wife Anne Gust Brown are simply winging it. This view is, let’s say, not entirely accurate. … From my December 9th column.
** BARACK OBAMA’S WAR: 10 KEY THINGS TO KNOW. … From my December 4th column.
** NORTH BY NORTHWEST‘S 50TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION: ENDURING APPEAL AND THE MAD MEN FACTOR. … From my December 2nd essay.
** HEADS SHOULD ROLL OVER OBAMA STATE DINNER SECURITY BREACH. … From my November 27th column.
** TONY BLAIR’S CAUTIONARY TALE FOR OBAMA. … From my November 24th column.
** MAD MEN: THREE SEASONS ON AND LOOKING FORWARD. … From my November 21st essay.
** THE INEVITABLE FLUKE THAT IS SARAH PALIN. … From my November 17th column.
** OBAMA IN FLUX. … From my November 13th column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate last fall, prior to the global economic meltdown, with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included. Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation. You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $74 per barrel.
This is near a two-month low, occasioned by high inventories and a strengthening dollar.
This is up about $40 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
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| Comments (41) |
Obama sounds peeved there in Copenhagen.
“I’ll be back!”
He was.
The world isn’t cooperating with Barack. Everybody wants change and nobody wants to change.
Bill, thanks for having his speech here.
Jonas Blane says:
December 18, 2009 at 6:34 am
Obama sounds peeved there in Copenhagen.
This will be interesting.
** NEW ESSAY COMING UP … COMMON THREADS: AVATAR AND THE FILMS OF JAMES CAMERON.
It will be interesting to write …
Nice line.
> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 7:39 am (Edit)
The world isn’t cooperating with Barack. Everybody wants change and nobody wants to change.
Bill, thanks for having his speech here.
Jonas Blane says:
December 18, 2009 at 6:34 am
Obama sounds peeved there in Copenhagen.
He is definitely not pleased.
> Jonas Blane says:
December 18, 2009 at 6:34 am (Edit)
Obama sounds peeved there in Copenhagen.
People are full of shit.
Bill Bradley says:
December 18, 2009 at 9:15 am
Nice line.
> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 7:39 am (Edit)
The world isn’t cooperating with Barack. Everybody wants change and nobody wants to change.
Bill, thanks for having his speech here.
Jonas Blane says:
December 18, 2009 at 6:34 am
Obama sounds peeved there in Copenhagen.
Meanwhile, Iran ventured into Iraq to shutdown an oil well…sigh…the Iranian well of crazy never seems to run dry…
Right, though actually the oil well was already shut down. I’ve been getting emails about that since 6. It’s hard to know what to make of it, and they’ve apparently withdrawn.
Yup. It seems like they’re trying to show what a pain in the ass they can be as some bargaining strategy. I’m not sufficiently crazy to understand it…
“President Obama will hold a second bilateral meeting today with Chinese Premier Wen at 10 AM Pacific in Copenhagen.”
There was a good piece today on NPR that talked about how the process being used in Copenhagen was unworkable, regardless of disagreements on content.
At one point, one of the delegates complained that two parallel agreements didn’t have the same word count…
Why no Schwarzei webcast with his director?
Not state biz …
Perhaps it’s a signal that they’ll invade Iraq if there are Israeli air strikes …
> Brasky says:
December 18, 2009 at 9:54 am (Edit)
Yup. It seems like they’re trying to show what a pain in the ass they can be as some bargaining strategy. I’m not sufficiently crazy to understand it…
Well, when you don’t have the same word count it is VERY hard to go forward …
> Brasky says:
December 18, 2009 at 9:57 am (Edit)
“President Obama will hold a second bilateral meeting today with Chinese Premier Wen at 10 AM Pacific in Copenhagen.”
There was a good piece today on NPR that talked about how the process being used in Copenhagen was unworkable, regardless of disagreements on content.
At one point, one of the delegates complained that two parallel agreements didn’t have the same word count…
This is getting like a spy novel.
Bill Bradley says:
December 18, 2009 at 10:07 am
Perhaps it’s a signal that they’ll invade Iraq if there are Israeli air strikes …
> Brasky says:
December 18, 2009 at 9:54 am (Edit)
Yup. It seems like they’re trying to show what a pain in the ass they can be as some bargaining strategy. I’m not sufficiently crazy to understand it…
lol
Bill Bradley says:
December 18, 2009 at 10:08 am
Well, when you don’t have the same word count it is VERY hard to go forward …
Additional Copenhagen video today?
Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen. The Chinese aren’t for real. The Senate won’t even pass a bill.
Good video of the President’s press conference in Copenhagen.
Sure looks that way.
What a disappointment this event has turned out to be.
> CB: Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen.
Well, Bradley called it. Bradley for Planetary Guru!
Heh.
>>>> Clutch J says:
December 18, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Sure looks that way.
What a disappointment this event has turned out to be.
> CB: Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen.
It pains to see the president talking about a “breakthrough.”
>>>> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen. The Chinese aren’t for real. The Senate won’t even pass a bill.
I had better get good presents this year then…
** A LITTLE HOLIDAY ECONOMIC CHEER? It was announced this morning that California’s unemployment rate has dipped from 12.5% to 12.3%. Which is certainly better than an increase. And in better news, a new Gallup survey indicates that there may be a late surge in Christmas spending.
Just did my par of the economy — the box from Amazon came today with most of the presents I am giving (I know–I am running late this year). Including for my nephew the new DVD of the classic Fleischer Studios Superman cartoons (from original masters–picture quality is said to be incredible for 60+ year old material) and a copy of The Ghost for my Mom based on the comments Bill and others have made about it. Happy giving!
Well, it does seem that China and India have agreed to something, and I suppose that’s progress.
I guess we’re going to have to have icebergs off Myrtle Beach before we get serious.
Itis is better than what we had, which was nothing.
Health care is advancing. This is very better than nothing.
What new video today?
The O and Avatar.
That’s right.
> marcos leon says:
December 18, 2009 at 7:07 pm (Edit)
Itis is better than what we had, which was nothing.
Health care is advancing. This is very better than nothing.
A bit of progress …
> Clutch J says:
December 18, 2009 at 4:53 pm (Edit)
Well, it does seem that China and India have agreed to something, and I suppose that’s progress.
I guess we’re going to have to have icebergs off Myrtle Beach before we get serious.
Very nice. And The Ghost is terrific!
There will be a lot more on that here next year …
> Dana says:
December 18, 2009 at 4:35 pm (Edit)
Just did my par of the economy — the box from Amazon came today with most of the presents I am giving (I know–I am running late this year). Including for my nephew the new DVD of the classic Fleischer Studios Superman cartoons (from original masters–picture quality is said to be incredible for 60+ year old material) and a copy of The Ghost for my Mom based on the comments Bill and others have made about it. Happy giving!
Of a sort …
> Jack Aubrey says:
December 18, 2009 at 3:45 pm (Edit)
It pains to see the president talking about a “breakthrough.”
>>>> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen. The Chinese aren’t for real. The Senate won’t even pass a bill.
Oh, not in this particular universe …
> Jack Aubrey says:
December 18, 2009 at 3:44 pm (Edit)
Well, Bradley called it. Bradley for Planetary Guru!
Heh.
>>>> Clutch J says:
December 18, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Sure looks that way.
What a disappointment this event has turned out to be.
> CB: Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen.
Correct.
> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 2:53 pm (Edit)
Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen. The Chinese aren’t for real. The Senate won’t even pass a bill.
It has been for awhile now.
> Capitol Boy says:
December 18, 2009 at 10:25 am (Edit)
This is getting like a spy novel.
Bill Bradley says:
December 18, 2009 at 10:07 am
Perhaps it’s a signal that they’ll invade Iraq if there are Israeli air strikes …
> Brasky says:
December 18, 2009 at 9:54 am (Edit)
Yup. It seems like they’re trying to show what a pain in the ass they can be as some bargaining strategy. I’m not sufficiently crazy to understand it…
Indeed. Though not a surprise …
> Clutch J says:
December 18, 2009 at 3:28 pm (Edit)
Sure looks that way.
What a disappointment this event has turned out to be.
> CB: Barack got what there was to be gotten in Copenhagen.
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