White House press secretary Robert Gibbs today previewed President Obama’s Tuesday night speech at West Point on the new Afghanistan strategy.
** NEW ESSAY COMING UP … NORTH BY NORTHWEST‘S 50TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION: ITS ENDURING APPEAL AND THE MAD MEN FACTOR.
** THE NEW SENATE REPORT ON BIN LADEN’S DECEMBER 2001 ESCAPE AT TORA BORA. Excerpted from “TORA BORA REVISITED: HOW WE FAILED TO GET BIN LADEN AND WHY IT MATTERS TODAY,” released today and available here.
NOTE: SORRY FOR THE LOOK OF THIS. THE SPACING IS DISTORTED TRANSFERRING FROM PDF.
Removing the Al Qaeda leader from the battlefield eight years
ago would not have eliminated the worldwide extremist threat. But
the decisions that opened the door for his escape to Pakistan al-
lowed bin Laden to emerge as a potent symbolic figure who con-
tinues to attract a steady flow of money and inspire fanatics world-
wide. The failure to finish the job represents a lost opportunity
that forever altered the course of the conflict in Afghanistan and
the future of international terrorism, leaving the American people
more vulnerable to terrorism, laying the foundation for today’s protracted Afghan insurgency and inflaming the internal strife now
endangering Pakistan. Al Qaeda shifted its locus across the border
into Pakistan, where it has trained extremists linked to numerous
plots, including the July 2005 transit bombings in London and two
recent aborted attacks involving people living in the United States.
The terrorist group’s resurgence in Pakistan has coincided with the
rising violence orchestrated in Afghanistan by the Taliban, whose
leaders also escaped only to re-emerge to direct today’s increasingly
lethal Afghan insurgency.
This failure and its enormous consequences were not inevitable.
By early December 2001, Bin Laden’s world had shrunk to a complex of caves and tunnels carved into a mountainous section of
eastern Afghanistan known as Tora Bora. Cornered in some of the
most forbidding terrain on earth, he and several hundred of his
men, the largest concentration of Al Qaeda fighters of the war, endured relentless pounding by American aircraft, as many as 100 air
strikes a day. One 15,000-pound bomb, so huge it had to be rolled
out the back of a C-130 cargo plane, shook the mountains for miles.
It seemed only a matter of time before U.S. troops and their Afghan allies overran the remnants of Al Qaeda hunkered down in
the thin, cold air at 14,000 feet.
Bin Laden expected to die. His last will and testament, written
on December 14, reflected his fatalism. ‘‘Allah commended to us
that when death approaches any of us that we make a bequest to
parents and next of kin and to Muslims as a whole,’’ he wrote, according to a copy of the will that surfaced later and is regarded as
authentic. ‘‘Allah bears witness that the love of jihad and death in
the cause of Allah has dominated my life and the verses of the
sword permeated every cell in my heart, ‘and fight the pagans all
together as they fight you all together.’ How many times did I
wake up to find myself reciting this holy verse!’’ He instructed his
wives not to remarry and apologized to his children for devoting
himself to jihad.
But the Al Qaeda leader would live to fight another day. Fewer
than 100 American commandos were on the scene with their Afghan allies, and calls for reinforcements to launch an assault were
rejected. Requests were also turned down for U.S. troops to block
the mountain paths leading to sanctuary a few miles away in Pakistan. The vast array of American military power, from sniper
teams to the most mobile divisions of the Marine Corps and the
Army, was kept on the sidelines. Instead, the U.S. command chose
to rely on airstrikes and untrained Afghan militias to attack bin
Laden and on Pakistan’s loosely organized Frontier Corps to seal
his escape routes. On or around December 16, two days after writing his will, bin Laden and an entourage of bodyguards walked
unmolested out of Tora Bora and disappeared into Pakistan’s un-
regulated tribal area. Most analysts say he is still there today.
The decision not to deploy American forces to go after bin Laden
or block his escape was made by Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld and his top commander, Gen. Tommy Franks, the architects of the unconventional Afghan battle plan known as Operation
Enduring Freedom. Rumsfeld said at the time that he was concerned that too many U.S. troops in Afghanistan would create an
anti-American backlash and fuel a widespread insurgency. Reversing the recent American military orthodoxy known as the Powell
doctrine, the Afghan model emphasized minimizing the U.S. presence by relying on small, highly mobile teams of special operations
troops and CIA paramilitary operatives working with the Afghan
opposition. Even when his own commanders and senior intelligence
officials in Afghanistan and Washington argued for dispatching
more U.S. troops, Franks refused to deviate from the plan.
There were enough U.S. troops in or near Afghanistan to execute
the classic sweep-and-block maneuver required to attack bin Laden
and try to prevent his escape. It would have been a dangerous fight
across treacherous terrain, and the injection of more U.S. troops
and the resulting casualties would have contradicted the risk-
averse, ‘‘light footprint’’ model formulated by Rumsfeld and Franks.
But commanders on the scene and elsewhere in Afghanistan argued that the risks were worth the reward.
After bin Laden’s escape, some military and intelligence analysts
and the press criticized the Pentagon’s failure to mount a full-scale
attack despite the tough rhetoric by President Bush. Franks, Vice
President Dick Cheney and others defended the decision, arguing
that the intelligence was inconclusive about the Al Qaeda leader’s
location. But the review of existing literature, unclassified govern-
ment records and interviews with central participants underlying
this report removes any lingering doubts and makes it clear that
Osama bin Laden was within our grasp at Tora Bora.
For example, the CIA and Delta Force commanders who spent
three weeks at Tora Bora as well as other intelligence and military
sources are certain he was there. Franks’ second-in-command during the war, retired Lt. Gen. Michael DeLong, wrote in his auto-
biography that bin Laden was ‘‘definitely there when we hit the
caves’’—a statement he retracted when the failure became a political issue. Most authoritatively, the official history of the U.S. Special Operations Command determined that bin Laden was at Tora
Bora. ‘‘All source reporting corroborated his presence on several
days from 9–14 December,’’ said a declassified version of the history, which was based on accounts of commanders and intelligence
officials and published without fanfare two years ago.
The reasons behind the failure to capture or kill Osama bin
Laden and its lasting consequences are examined over three sections in this report. The first section traces bin Laden’s path from
southern Afghanistan to the mountains of Tora Bora and lays out
new and previous evidence that he was there. The second explores
new information behind the decision not to launch an assault. The
final section examines the military options that might have led to
his capture or death at Tora Bora and the failure to bring him back ‘‘dead or alive.’’ …
** OBAMA BACK ABOVE 50% APPROVAL. The day before he announces his big new strategy for Afghanistan, President Barack Obama has moved back above the 50% level in presidential approval.
In the new Gallup tracking poll, 51% now approve of Obama’s performance as president, while 41% disapprove.
Obama had dipped below 50% following his eight-day trip to Asia. He generally drops in the polls during these long international trips.
There was a great deal of yip-yap over this, of course, which didn’t mention the second sentence of the preceding paragraph.
A week ago, Obama’s approval rating was at 48%, with his disapproval rating at 44%. So he’s gone from plus 4 to plus 10.
Don’t expect to hear much about that.
It doesn’t fit the usual media hysteria.
Iran is vowing to step up its uranium enrichment program by building ten new sites. It accuses the West of provoking the move, after the UN’s nuclear watchdog condemned Iran’s pattern of secrecy and deception.
** MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
It’s a very big week in presidential politics, and a slow week in California politics.
Following a meeting last night in the White House Situation Room — which included Defense Secretary Bob Gates, National Security Advisor General James Jones, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Amdiral Mike Mullen, and Central Command chief General David Petraeus — President Barack Obama has issued his orders for a new escalation in Afghanistan. He will reveal the details, which include some 30,000 new troops and some sort of exit strategy, in a nationally televised speech Tuesday night at West Point.
Some 9000 Marines are expected to arrive in Afghanistan in short order.
In addition to Afghanistan, there is the linked crisis of Pakistan. The Taliban have been pushed back there from gains made last year and early this year, but Obama is committing more military and civil assistance. There is also something of a crisis of governance there, with President Asif Ali Zardari, husband of the assassinated Benazir Bhutto, in danger from the end of an amnesty on past corruption charges. He has turned over nuclear codes to the military and to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who is not affected on corruption.
As I’ve written for months, the Iranian nuclear crisis is again destined for the front burner. And after weeks of delay, confusion, and ultimately saying no to the plan its negotiators had accepted, followed by Friday’s censure by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is saying it will build 10 new nuclear sites.
This is called dropping the pretense of cooperation with inspectors in place to try to ensure that Iran’s nuclear energy program is not really a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA is telling Iran to immediately cease work on the previously secret underground facility next to a Revolutionary Guards base outside Qom and to accept the deal its negotiators agreed to earlier in which Iran’s uranium would be shipped to Russia and France for further enrichment.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said on Friday that the investigation of Iran is at “a dead end” because of a lack of cooperation.
A top hardline Iranian legislator who sometimes speaks for the regime said over the weekend that Iran should withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty. Which would simply confirm its intent.
Iran wrapped up six days of anti-aircraft exercises aimed at protecting its nuclear sites on Thanksgiving Day.
Incidentally, Obama’s diplomacy in Asia appears to have paid off to a certain degree, with China finally taking part in the condemnation of Iran and agreeing to address greenhouse gases in advance of the Copenhagen negotiations.
Amidst all the noise over health insurance reform, and with Senate debate starting again this week, Vice President Joe Biden says that he wants to know who you trust.
Turning to domestic affairs, Obama also hosts the White House Jobs Summit this Thursday. Obama got some good news last week regarding the sluggish early stage of economic recovery. Unemployment claims were down and housing sales were up.
And the Senate begins debating the pending national health care legislation this week. I expect a big bill to gain passage. Whether it contains the public option, or what form that public option takes, are live questions.
In California politics, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will push for the state Assembly to follow the Senate’s lead and adopt education reform legislation needed to make the state eligible for Obama Administration “Race To the Top” grants.
He will also be working on gaining confirmation of his appointee as the state’s new lieutenant governor, state Senator Abel Maldonado. The biggest hurdle may be the ability of state Democrats to put together a winning campaign in his Senate district, which they should be able to win.
Then there is the state’s chronic fiscal crisis, with billions in changes needed in the current budget.
Schwarzenegger will also prep for the Copenhagen climate summit, which begins next week. With Congress deadlocked on the issue, California has the only plan existing in America.
He also inducts the new class for the California Hall of Fame.
With regard to the 2010 governor’s race, the Democratic favorite for governor of California, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, will keep on consolidating his position.
I will explain fairly soon how Brown cleared the Democratic field for governor of California, which was anticipated from the beginning on NWN.
Republican hopefuls will keep scuffling this week over who’s the real right-winger. Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who has already spent over $20 million and has a reputation for impulsive hiring practices, will work on figuring out how to make her newest high-priced hire, ex-Schwarzenegger chief strategist Mike Murphy, who I know quite well, fit into her bulging operation.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in Washington today.
Obama has had his daily intelligence briefing in the Oval Office.
At 8:10 AM Pacific, Obama began meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in the Oval Office.
Their focus? Afghanistan and climate change. Both leaders will be in attendance next week in Copenhagen.
At 1 P Pacific, Obama receives his daily economic briefing in the Oval Office.
At 1:45 P Pacific, Obama meets with senior advisors in the Oval Office.
Obama is prepping today for his address to the nation on his new strategy for Afghanistan Tuesday night at West Point.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private talks in and around the Capitol today.
He has no scheduled public events.
** HEADS SHOULD ROLL OVER OBAMA STATE DINNER SECURITY BREACH. It turns out to be shockingly easy to assassinate President Barack Obama.
In a fabulous show of security, it emerged late Wednesday that a pair of reality show contestants succeeded in crashing the Obamas’ first state dinner. One posted photos of the couple with Vice President Joe Biden and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, who she referred to as “Ron,” on her Facebook page.
Amusing though it may seem, this situation is very serious, and totally unacceptable. Heads should roll over this. … From my Novem ber 27th column.
** TONY BLAIR’S CAUTIONARY TALE FOR OBAMA. Tony Blair’s recent travails, last week over his bid to become the first president of the European Union and today with the start of Britain’s Iraq War inquiry, stand as something of a cautionary tale for President Barack Obama. Blair was long the favorite to become the first president of the European Union. But in the end, pilloried on the left for his leading role in the Iraq War and still not supported by the right, he was supplanted by a little-known Belgian bureaucrat.
Just as America had Obamamania in 2008, Britain had Blairmania in 1997. “Things Can Only Get Better” blared, as it were, the ubiquitous Blair campaign song.
“Everybody voted for him. He wasn’t a politician; he was a craze.” That’s how the title character puts it in the deliciously vicious roman a clef novel by former Blair friend Robert Harris, The Ghost (as in ghostwriter of the ex-prime minister’s memoirs), which was was being made into a movie by Roman Polanski when he was arrested in Switzerland. … From my November 24th column.
** MAD MEN: THREE SEASONS ON AND LOOKING FORWARD. … From my November 21st essay.
** THE INEVITABLE FLUKE THAT IS SARAH PALIN. … From my November 17th column.
** OBAMA IN FLUX. … From my November 13th column.
** MAD MEN‘S SENSATIONAL SEASON FINALE. … From my November 9th review.
** OBAMA’S OFF TO A VERY GOOD START. … From my November 4th column.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti. While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer. The NWN live link to AJ does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate last fall, prior to the global economic meltdown, with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included. Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation. You can listen to my recent video webchat with Schwarzenegger here.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Having crashed over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, 2008, crude oil is trading around $76 per barrel.
This is up about $42 from the low of $34 per barrel prior to enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, reflecting a low point in global economic activity.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. You can send me a private tip by clicking on the “Contact” button in the upper right.
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| Comments (50) |
Good RT news video on the Iran crisis.
Big week for Barack, this is exciting!
Biden does good in that video. I like how he works the caregivers in.
Iran is acting pretty crazy. It’s like Barack doesn’t have enough problems already. 10 new nuclear sites! That is nuts.
There was a very good story on VP Biden yesterday in the NYT.
Jonas Blane says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:28 am
Biden does good in that video. I like how he works the caregivers in.
I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.
The article on HP is frightening!
It’s unbelievable. They should all be fired.
It is unbelievable and very frightening.
Indeed.
Thanks. I think.
> Lorena says:
November 30, 2009 at 10:23 am (Edit)
The article on HP is frightening!
He did very well in it.
> Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:35 am (Edit)
There was a very good story on VP Biden yesterday in the NYT.
Jonas Blane says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:28 am
Biden does good in that video. I like how he works the caregivers in.
It’s like North Korea. Except for real.
> Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:34 am (Edit)
Iran is acting pretty crazy. It’s like Barack doesn’t have enough problems already. 10 new nuclear sites! That is nuts.
Thanks. Although it was too short …
> Lorena says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:54 am (Edit)
I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.
They don’t get a lot bigger …
> Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:27 am (Edit)
Big week for Barack, this is exciting!
Get ready for the Israeli air strikes.
Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:34 am
Iran is acting pretty crazy. It’s like Barack doesn’t have enough problems already. 10 new nuclear sites! That is nuts.
Hey, where’s the post?
I’ll try it again.
Still nothing.
New video today?
Obama is doing fine. He’s got China and Russia working with us on Iran. Bush never could have done that (remember Russia’s leader comparing the US to the Nazis?).
I’m currently fascinated by the Huckabee connection to the terrible murder of four police officers in Washington State. I’ve been following the story on the Seattle Times website.
Huckabee won’t hold public office again…
Strong and wrong, revisited?
>** OBAMA BACK ABOVE 50% APPROVAL.
That is a good statement on Afghanistan by Robert Gibbs.
A very good new poll for Barack! I knew he’d go back up.
This is fascinating.
** THE NEW SENATE REPORT ON BIN LADEN’S DECEMBER 2001 ESCAPE AT TORA BORA.
Let’s try this again.
Dang it, where’s the post?
Here.
lol
Jack, esteemed fellow poster, since nobody else is calling you on this, I will:
All these “Where’s my post?” posts waste everyone’s time.
Feel free to post anything of substance that you like. Im always happy to hear your point of view.
But please either fix or accept this technical glitch and cease with the meta-musings. Thanks.
Hey, thanks for being “strong and wrong.”
Too-shay!
Bill, a USC colleague of yours offers these insights into the awkward 1990 USA-German-Soviet diplomacy surrounding the reunification of Europe and NATO expansion:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/opinion/30sarotte.html
Good stuff.
I’m back from Thanskgiving. I hope everyone was well and had a good time.
An amazing excerpt which is angering, too. I remember this. How did they get away with this gross incompetence, I wonder.
** THE NEW SENATE REPORT ON BIN LADEN’S DECEMBER 2001 ESCAPE AT TORA BORA. Excerpted from “TORA BORA REVISITED: HOW WE FAILED TO GET BIN LADEN AND WHY IT MATTERS TODAY,” released today and available here.
I read the article for the Huffington Post on the Secret Service breakdown. You are right, there should be people fired and transferred for this breech. It’s frightening with all the hate against the President to think what could happen.
Also, I think the “reality TV star” status is insane. This is why the couple did what they did, to be “famous.”
I sincerely hope that President Obama does not have to pay again for the failures of the past President in Afghanistan.
The USA and NATO has today as many troops in Afghanistan as USSR in the1980s.
What new video today?
The war in Afghanistan and new cars in LA.
And soon it will be more …
> sergei says:
December 1, 2009 at 4:32 am (Edit)
The USA and NATO has today as many troops in Afghanistan as USSR in the1980s.
Thanks. And I agree.
> marcos leon says:
November 30, 2009 at 5:31 pm (Edit)
I read the article for the Huffington Post on the Secret Service breakdown. You are right, there should be people fired and transferred for this breech. It’s frightening with all the hate against the President to think what could happen.
Also, I think the “reality TV star” status is insane. This is why the couple did what they did, to be “famous.”
The media gave them a big pass in 2004. Swiftboating was “more credible.”
> marcos leon says:
November 30, 2009 at 5:17 pm (Edit)
An amazing excerpt which is angering, too. I remember this. How did they get away with this gross incompetence, I wonder.
** THE NEW SENATE REPORT ON BIN LADEN’S DECEMBER 2001 ESCAPE AT TORA BORA. Excerpted from “TORA BORA REVISITED: HOW WE FAILED TO GET BIN LADEN AND WHY IT MATTERS TODAY,” released today and available here.
Thanks, that’s very interesting.
> Clutch J says:
November 30, 2009 at 4:36 pm (Edit)
Bill, a USC colleague of yours offers these insights into the awkward 1990 USA-German-Soviet diplomacy surrounding the reunification of Europe and NATO expansion:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/opinion/30sarotte.html
Good stuff.
It’s a chronic site issue which he is legitimately perturbed by.
> Clutch J says:
November 30, 2009 at 3:33 pm (Edit)
Jack, esteemed fellow poster, since nobody else is calling you on this, I will:
All these “Where’s my post?” posts waste everyone’s time.
Feel free to post anything of substance that you like. Im always happy to hear your point of view.
But please either fix or accept this technical glitch and cease with the meta-musings. Thanks.
It’s a terrific report.
> Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 2:40 pm (Edit)
This is fascinating.
** THE NEW SENATE REPORT ON BIN LADEN’S DECEMBER 2001 ESCAPE AT TORA BORA.
It was always highly likely, as I explained before.
> Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 2:39 pm (Edit)
A very good new poll for Barack! I knew he’d go back up.
He was already backing away on the 2012 race …
> Brasky says:
November 30, 2009 at 12:29 pm (Edit)
Obama is doing fine. He’s got China and Russia working with us on Iran. Bush never could have done that (remember Russia’s leader comparing the US to the Nazis?).
I’m currently fascinated by the Huckabee connection to the terrible murder of four police officers in Washington State. I’ve been following the story on the Seattle Times website.
Huckabee won’t hold public office again…
Sorry …
> Jack Aubrey says:
November 30, 2009 at 11:48 am (Edit)
Hey, where’s the post?
That’s always a live option, and far likelier than Iran’s threatened “10 new sites.”
> Jack Aubrey says:
November 30, 2009 at 11:48 am (Edit)
Get ready for the Israeli air strikes.
Capitol Boy says:
November 30, 2009 at 9:34 am
Iran is acting pretty crazy. It’s like Barack doesn’t have enough problems already. 10 new nuclear sites! That is nuts.
I appreciate that. This is the Bill Bradley site.
Bill Bradley says:
December 1, 2009 at 9:25 am
It’s a chronic site issue which he is legitimately perturbed by.
> Clutch J says:
November 30, 2009 at 3:33 pm (Edit)
Jack, esteemed fellow poster, since nobody else is calling you on this, I will:
All these “Where’s my post?” posts waste everyone’s time.
Feel free to post anything of substance that you like. Im always happy to hear your point of view.
But please either fix or accept this technical glitch and cease with the meta-musings. Thanks.