President Barack Obama laid out the end game for the US in Iraq in this address to the Marines at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina.
** QUICK HITS. After criticism yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat, is praising President Barack Obama’s plan to disentangle America from Iraq. I’m so shocked. … Good times for California. The Sierra Nevada snowpack is again more than 60% shy of normal. I didn’t get much more than that, as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger called a state of emergency because of California’s drought conditions. I called in to the conference call with state water officials and hung up after four minutes on hold. Apparently a slow news day for California-based press. But not in the bigger scheme of things, with Obama announcing the new Iraq policy … Many are now mourning the late California legislator Nell Soto, a kindly pioneer of Latina politics and environmental champion who died yesterday in office at the age of 82. She served repeated terms in both the state Senate and Assembly, but missed most of her most recent term due to illness. … San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who is trying to run for the Democratic nomination for governor of California, is on comedian Bill Maher’s HBO show. I doubt Maher will support him. …
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … YES, IT’S YET ANOTHER CALIFORNIA ELECTION.
I’ve been planning a column on “The Trouble With Twitter.”
Inundation. Fragmentation. ADD.
But I’m too busy dealing with all the other modes of communication …
** 2012 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL POLL: PALIN OUT FRONT.CNN has a brand new poll on the 2012 Republican presidential sweepstakes, and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin has a narrow edge.
Here are the numbers: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 29%, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 26%, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21%, and Lousiana Governor Bobby Jindal 9%.
I think Team Obama is liking this.
** CALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT HIGHEST IN A QUARTER CENTURY. California’s unemployment rate has hit 10.1%, the highest in a quarter century. The downturn which began with the housing sector has, with the globalization of first the financial crisis and now the economic crisis, now hit all aspects of the economy. It would be much higher if the state’s compromise budget deal had not been adopted, with more than 100,000 jobs lost almost immediately.
** OBAMA’S IRAQ SPEECH. I believe this is President Obama’s most important speech this week, more important than the State of the Union. Here are key excerpts.
Good morning Marines. Good morning Camp Lejeune. Good morning Jacksonville. Thank you for that outstanding welcome. I want to thank Lieutenant General Hejlik for hosting me here today.
I also want to acknowledge all of our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. That includes the Camp Lejeune Marines now serving with – or soon joining – the Second Marine Expeditionary Force in Iraq; those with Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force in Afghanistan; and those among the 8,000 Marines who are preparing to deploy to Afghanistan. We have you in our prayers. We pay tribute to your service. We thank you and your families for all that you do for America. And I want all of you to know that there is no higher honor or greater responsibility than serving as your Commander-in-Chief. …
Next month will mark the sixth anniversary of the war in Iraq. By any measure, this has already been a long war. For the men and women of America’s armed forces – and for your families – this war has been one of the most extraordinary chapters of service in the history of our nation. You have endured tour after tour after tour of duty. You have known the dangers of combat and the lonely distance of loved ones. You have fought against tyranny and disorder. You have bled for your best friends and for unknown Iraqis. And you have borne an enormous burden for your fellow citizens, while extending a precious opportunity to the people of Iraq. Under tough circumstances, the men and women of the United States military have served with honor, and succeeded beyond any expectation.
Today, I have come to speak to you about how the war in Iraq will end.
To understand where we need to go in Iraq, it is important for the American people to understand where we now stand. Thanks in great measure to your service, the situation in Iraq has improved. Violence has been reduced substantially from the horrific sectarian killing of 2006 and 2007. Al Qaeda in Iraq has been dealt a serious blow by our troops and Iraq’s Security Forces, and through our partnership with Sunni Arabs. The capacity of Iraq’s Security Forces has improved, and Iraq’s leaders have taken steps toward political accommodation. The relative peace and strong participation in January’s provincial elections sent a powerful message to the world about how far Iraqis have come in pursuing their aspirations through a peaceful political process.
But let there be no doubt: Iraq is not yet secure, and there will be difficult days ahead. Violence will continue to be a part of life in Iraq. Too many fundamental political questions about Iraq’s future remain unresolved. …
We have also taken into account the simple reality that America can no longer afford to see Iraq in isolation from other priorities: we face the challenge of refocusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan; of relieving the burden on our military; and of rebuilding our struggling economy – and these are challenges that we will meet.
Today, I can announce that our review is complete, and that the United States will pursue a new strategy to end the war in Iraq through a transition to full Iraqi responsibility.
This strategy is grounded in a clear and achievable goal shared by the Iraqi people and the American people: an Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and self-reliant. To achieve that goal, we will work to promote an Iraqi government that is just, representative, and accountable, and that provides neither support nor safe-haven to terrorists. We will help Iraq build new ties of trade and commerce with the world. And we will forge a partnership with the people and government of Iraq that contributes to the peace and security of the region.
What we will not do is let the pursuit of the perfect stand in the way of achievable goals. We cannot rid Iraq of all who oppose America or sympathize with our adversaries. We cannot police Iraq’s streets until they are completely safe, nor stay until Iraq’s union is perfected. We cannot sustain indefinitely a commitment that has put a strain on our military, and will cost the American people nearly a trillion dollars. America’s men and women in uniform have fought block by block, province by province, year after year, to give the Iraqis this chance to choose a better future. Now, we must ask the Iraqi people to seize it.
The first part of this strategy is therefore the responsible removal of our combat brigades from Iraq. As a candidate for President, I made clear my support for a timeline of 16 months to carry out this drawdown, while pledging to consult closely with our military commanders upon taking office to ensure that we preserve the gains we’ve made and protect our troops. Those consultations are now complete, and I have chosen a timeline that will remove our combat brigades over the next 18 months.
Let me say this as plainly as I can: by August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end. …
After we remove our combat brigades, our mission will change from combat to supporting the Iraqi government and its Security Forces as they take the absolute lead in securing their country. As I have long said, we will retain a transitional force to carry out three distinct functions: training, equipping, and advising Iraqi Security Forces as long as they remain non-sectarian; conducting targeted counter-terrorism missions; and protecting our ongoing civilian and military efforts within Iraq. Initially, this force will likely be made up of 35-50,000 U.S. troops.
Through this period of transition, we will carry out further redeployments. And under the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government, I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. We will complete this transition to Iraqi responsibility, and we will bring our troops home with the honor that they have earned.
As we responsibly remove our combat brigades, we will pursue the second part of our strategy: sustained diplomacy on behalf of a more peaceful and prosperous Iraq.
The drawdown of our military should send a clear signal that Iraq’s future is now its own responsibility….
Going forward, we can make a difference on several fronts. We will work with the United Nations to support national elections, while helping Iraqis improve local government. We can serve as an honest broker in pursuit of fair and durable agreements on issues that have divided Iraq’s leaders. And just as we will support Iraq’s Security Forces, we will help Iraqi institutions strengthen their capacity to protect the rule of law, confront corruption, and deliver basic services.
Diplomacy and assistance is also required to help the millions of displaced Iraqis….
Now, before I go any further, I want to take a moment to speak directly to the people of Iraq. You are a great nation, rooted in the cradle of civilization. You are joined together by enduring accomplishments, and a history that connects you as surely as the two rivers carved into your land. In years past, you have persevered through tyranny and terror; through personal insecurity and sectarian violence. And instead of giving in to the forces of disunion, you stepped back from a descent into civil war, and showed a proud resilience that deserves respect.
Our nations have known difficult times together. But ours is a bond forged by shared bloodshed, and countless friendships among our people. We Americans have offered our most precious resource – our young men and women – to work with you to rebuild what was destroyed by despotism; to root out our common enemies; and to seek peace and prosperity for our children and grandchildren, and for yours.
There are those who will try to prevent that future for Iraq – who will insist that Iraq’s differences cannot be reconciled without more killing. They represent the forces that destroy nations and lead only to despair, and they will test our will in the months and years to come. America, too, has known these forces. We endured the pain of Civil War, and bitter divisions of region and race. But hostility and hatred are no match for justice; they offer no pathway to peace; and they must not stand between the people of Iraq and a future of reconciliation and hope.
So to the Iraqi people, let me be clear about America’s intentions. The United States pursues no claim on your territory or your resources. We respect your sovereignty and the tremendous sacrifices you have made for your country. We seek a full transition to Iraqi responsibility for the security of your country. And going forward, we can build a lasting relationship founded upon mutual interests and mutual respect as Iraq takes its rightful place in the community of nations.
That leads me to the third part of our strategy –comprehensive American engagement across the region. The future of Iraq is inseparable from the future of the broader Middle East, so we must work with our friends and partners to establish a new framework that advances Iraq’s security and the region’s. It is time for Iraq to be a full partner in a regional dialogue, and for Iraq’s neighbors to establish productive and normalized relations with Iraq. And going forward, the United States will pursue principled and sustained engagement with all of the nations in the region, and that will include Iran and Syria.
This reflects a fundamental truth: we can no longer deal with regional challenges in isolation – we need a smarter, more sustainable and comprehensive approach. That is why we are renewing our diplomacy, while relieving the burden on our military. That is why we are refocusing on al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing a strategy to use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon; and actively seeking a lasting peace between Israel and the Arab world. And that is why we have named three of America’s most accomplished diplomats – George Mitchell, Dennis Ross and Richard Holbrooke – to support Secretary Clinton and me as we carry forward this agenda.
Every nation and every group must know – whether you wish America good or ill – that the end of the war in Iraq will enable a new era of American leadership and engagement in the Middle East. And that era has just begun.
Finally, I want to be very clear that my strategy for ending the war in Iraq does not end with military plans or diplomatic agendas – it endures through our commitment to uphold our sacred trust with every man and woman who has served in Iraq.
You make up a fraction of the American population, but in an age when so many people and institutions have acted irresponsibly, you did the opposite – you volunteered to bear the heaviest burden. And for you and for your families, the war does not end when you come home. It lives on in memories of your fellow soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines who gave their lives. It endures in the wound that is slow to heal, the disability that isn’t going away, the dream that wakes you at night, or the stiffening in your spine when a car backfires down the street.
You and your families have done your duty – now a grateful nation must do ours. That is why I am increasing the number of soldiers and Marines, so that we lessen the burden on those who are serving. And that is why I have committed to expanding our system of veterans health care to serve more patients, and to provide better care in more places. We will continue building new wounded warrior facilities across America, and invest in new ways of identifying and treating the signature wounds of this war: Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Traumatic Brain Injury, as well as other combat injuries.
We also know that service does not end with the person wearing the uniform. In her visits with military families across the country, my wife Michelle has learned firsthand about the unique burden that your families endure every day. I want you to know this: military families are a top priority for Michelle and me, and they will be a top priority for my administration. We’ll raise military pay, and continue providing quality child-care, job-training for spouses, and expanded counseling and outreach to families that have known the separation and stress of war. We will also heed the lesson of history – that those who fight in battle can form the backbone of our middle class – by implementing a 21st century GI Bill to help our veterans live their dreams.
As a nation, we have had our share of debates about the war in Iraq. It has, at times, divided us as a people. To this very day, there are some Americans who want to stay in Iraq longer, and some who want to leave faster. But there should be no disagreement on what the men and women of our military have achieved.
And so I want to be very clear: We sent our troops to Iraq to do away with Saddam Hussein’s regime – and you got the job done. We kept our troops in Iraq to help establish a sovereign government – and you got the job done. And we will leave the Iraqi people with a hard-earned opportunity to live a better life – that is your achievement; that is the prospect that you have made possible.
There are many lessons to be learned from what we’ve experienced. We have learned that America must go to war with clearly defined goals, which is why I’ve ordered a review of our policy in Afghanistan. We have learned that we must always weigh the costs of action, and communicate those costs candidly to the American people, which is why I’ve put Iraq and Afghanistan into my budget. We have learned that in the 21st century, we must use all elements of American power to achieve our objectives, which is why I am committed to building our civilian national security capacity so that the burden is not continually pushed on to our military. We have learned that our political leaders must pursue the broad and bipartisan support that our national security policies depend upon, which is why I will consult with Congress and in carrying out my plans. And we have learned the importance of working closely with friends and allies, which is why we are launching a new era of engagement in the world. …
You know because you have seen those sacrifices. You have lived them. And we all honor them. “Semper Fidelis” – it means always being faithful to Corps, and to country, and to the memory of fallen comrades like Corporal Jonathan Yale and Lance Corporal Jordan Haerter. …
America’s time in Iraq is filled with stories of men and women like this. Their names are written into bridges and town squares. They are etched into stones at Arlington, and in quiet places of rest across our land. They are spoken in schools and on city blocks. They live on in the memories of those who wear your uniform, in the hearts of those they loved, and in the freedom of the nation they served. …
There will be more danger in the months ahead. We will face new tests and unforeseen trials. But thanks to the sacrifices of those who have served, we have forged hard-earned progress, we are leaving Iraq to its people, and we have begun the work of ending this war.
Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless the United States of America. Semper Fi.
** WHITMAN’S SAMPLER: THE EX-EBAY CEO’S MOVES MIRROR THE REPUBLICAN CRISIS. Like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal’s rebuttal to President Barack Obama’s speech to the joint session of Congress, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman’s moves at this past weekend’s California Republican Party convention point up the crisis afflicting the Republican Party. …
President Barack Obama is set to announce the new policy on Iraq. Defense Secretary Bob Gates previews the big draw-down.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is having another busy day today. He’s on his way this morning to another red state he took away in November, North Carolina, to announce the new US policy on Iraq.
Obama will deliver remarks at 8:45 AM Pacific at Camp Lejeune, the largest Marine Corps base on the East Coast. (Obama bonded with Marines during his Christmas vacation in Hawaii, where he worked out every day at the Marine base, and National Security Advisor Jim Jones commanded the entire Marine Corps.) There he will announce that he is withdrawing some 100,000 troops out of Iraq by the end of August 2010. Which neatly concides with the campaign in earnest for the 2010 mid-term elections.
As many as 50,000 US troops will remain, most, though not all, in support rather than combat functions.
Obama essentially picked the middle course of three scenarios developed for Iraq withdrawal: The 16-month option (which he campaigned on), the 19-month option, and the 23-month option favored by General David Petraeus.
Petraeus is on board with Obama’s plans now. As is John McCain, who famously said last year that troops might have to be in Iraq indefinitely.
It will be interesting to see how Obama’s plan is received by his base. This is not getting out as fast as many would like, and it is leaving more troops behind than many would like.
Obama will discuss the new Iraq policy tonight on PBS’s News Hour and on the Armed Forces Network.
Al Jazeera reports that secret talks are underway between the Afghan government and elements of the Taliban, including one of the most vehement anti-US figures.
In other geopolitical news, Al Jazeera is reporting exclusively that the Afghan government, with British involvement, is negotiating with elements of the Taliban leadership, including one of its most vehement figures. I’ll have more on this.
Obama has just issues a presidential directive reforming the National Security Council. In keeping with his more expansive definition of national security, Attorney General Eric Holder, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Energy Secretary Steven Chu, and UN Ambassador Susan Rice are all now members of the NSC, along with the traditional choices. As I wrote would happen a couple of months ago, Obama’s directive strengthens the role of National Security Advisor General Jim Jones, the former NATO commander and Marine Corps commandant. Jones runs the NSC and Cabinet members, while they have access to Obama, will work directly with him on implementing presidential decisions.
Meanwhile, reeling Citigroup is about to undergo partial nationalization. In exchange for another big infusion of cash, the government will own about 40% of the financial giant and many new members of the board of directors will be coming on board.
Oh, and the economy was even worse than previously reported in the last quarter of the Bush/Cheney administration. It contracted by a revised 6.2% in Q4 of 2008.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger travels to Fresno today to appear with Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines and former Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill to discuss why they supported the state budget compromise.
On Sunday, Schwarzenegger travels to Germany, where next week he will deliver the opening ceremony address at CeBIT, the world’s biggest technology trade fair. California is an official partner of CeBIT, the only state partner. CeBIT drew a half-million attendees from nearly 100 companies in 2008.
Yesterday, the former action superstar kicked off the campaign for five initiatives tied to the state budget compromise on the May 19th California special election ballot with a press conference in Sacramento. The event will be at a child development center that would probably have closed had the budget deal not finally been reached.
Schwarzenegger was joined at the event by other members of his newly formed California Budget Reform Now group, including Senate President Prom Tem Darrell Steinberg, former Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill, California Alliance for Jobs Executive Director Jim Earp, Placer County Sheriff and California State Sheriffs’ Association President Ed Bonner, Sacramento County Sheriff John McGinness, Carpenters Union chief Danny Curtin, and California Chamber of Commerce President Allan Zaremberg.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The oil rally of about $10 per barrel over the last week coincides with the enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, which traders think will stimulate more economic activity.
President Barack Obama, decrying previous off-the-books spending, pledged a big cut in the federal deficit after major initial outlays to rebuild the economy.
** QUICK HITS. President Barack Obama met in the White House late today with some Congressional Democrats unhappy with the Iraq withdrawal plan he is evidently about to announce. They feel it’s too slow and would leave too large a residual force in Iraq. … The US Senate voted 61-37, on a bill co-authored by near apostate Democrat Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, to grant the District of Columbia a voting member of Congress. The bill goes to the House, where approval is obviously expected, and Obama has long said he would sign it. A complication. In order to gain needed Republican votes to avert a filibuster, most DC gun laws would be pre-empted. … A state superior court judge ruled today that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger does have the authority to reduce state employee pay to minimum wage in the event of a budget deadlock, as occurred last summer. Schwarzenegger ordered the move, but state Controller John Chiang, backed by public employee unions, claimed that the state’s computers couldn’t be re-programmed to accommodate the change.
** AND ANOTHER CALIFORNIA ELECTION IS ON! Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joined state Senate Democratic leader Darrel Steinberg, former Senate Republican leader Davie Cogdill, and business, law enforcement, and some labor leaders late this afternoon at a pre-school center in an impoverished part of Sacramento to kick off their campaign to pass five initiatives needed to fully implement the recent state budget compromise. The special election, which coincides with the LA elections, will be May 19th.
Schwarzenegger, Steinberg, and Cogdill all praised one another, not surprisingly, for the successful deal which came after months of haggling, and predicted victory. Polls have showed support for a state budget solution that mixed cuts, taxes, and a spending limit, and this package has all those things.
Asked if he is concerned that former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, a Republican gubernatorial hopeful who has denounced the deal, will spend from her fortune to defeat, Schwarzenegger said he is not. “I don’t take too seriously what is said at the convention,” he said. “It’s all part of a kabuki.”
Schwarzenegger noted that if Whitman actually were to become governor of California – which voted 61% to 37% for Barack Obama over the Republican candidate whose campaign Whitman served as national co-chair, John McCain – she would be glad for the deal and the revenues and new rainy day fund provisions which she, or any other governor, would need.
Many critics said that the policy was designed to minimize the human cost of the Iraq War. With casualties likely to increase in Afghanistan in the wake of the coming US military surge there, the Obama Administration will learn if this new transparency works out for it.
The paper lost $16 million last year and, until tomorrow, employs 230 people. Its owner, E.W. Scripps, could not find a buyer for it even though it had a circulation in the hundreds of thousands.
While newspaper operations are shutting down, the company will retain the masthead, archives, and web site, and continue to seek a buyer for them. But with the staff laid off, it’s not clear what the value will be.
Incidentally, the Hearst Corp. is issuing rumblings about shutting down the San Francisco Chronicle if it can’t find a buyer, or successfully institute severe cutbacks.
** CALIFORNIA 2010. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has another of those town halls he’s been having tonight at Truckee High School in the Lake Tahoe area. Newsom, who recently confirmed rumors that his wife is pregnant, is considering a run for the Democratic nomination for governor.
I went to one of Newsom’s earlier town halls, which I filmed. The mayor is polished, but diffuse.
His next town hall isn’t until March 10th, in gritty Oakland, where Jerry Brown was mayor for eight years.
Speaking of the former governor, state Attorney General Brown is in Long Beach today for a noon address on how to curb gang violence in an era of limits, an old phrase of great relevance today. Brown is joined by Long Beach Police Chief Anthony Batts and Mayor Bob Foster, and will present a career achievement award to a 28-year veteran of the Long Beach Police Department.
Brown, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, is also considering a run for governor, in his case to regain the office.
** NEW CALIFORNIA POLL SHOWS SCHWARZENEGGER DOWN, ABORTION SUPPORT SLIPPING SOME. A new Public Policy Institute of California poll focused on population issues finds that support for abortion in blue state California has slipped a bit. And shows that two-thirds want parental notification on teenage abortions.
Which, as it happens, just lost again at the ballot box in November 2008. For the third time.
As for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval, it’s down to 36% amongst California voters, at or near a record low for him.
With a major caveat. The poll was conducted over a two-week period, from February 3rd through February 17th. The state budget was still up in the air while the poll was in the field.
Back to abortion and population issues.
55% say they don’t have moral or religious objections to abortion, though 60% say it would be good to reduce the number of abortions.
On the key question of legislation, the pro-choice position is favored over the anti-choice position, 61% to 35%, which is down about 10 points since 2000. 66% do not want the US Supreme Court to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision.
Democrats and independents are overwhelmingly pro-choice, while Republicans are fairly evenly divided.
Large majorities of voters want government-funded family planning and sex education to stem teen pregnancy.
Intriguingly, half those surveyed incorrectly identify immigration as the leading cause of California’s population growth, while only 15% correctly identify births inside California.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is having a busy day today. He unveiled his first budget proposal early this morning for fiscal year 2010 with remarks at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. Then he received the daily presidential briefing on intelligence and national security matters in the Oval Office.
Budget Director Peter Orszag and Council of Economic Advisors chair Christina Romer hold a press conference to discuss the budget, then Obama has his weekly luncheon with Vice President Joe Biden in the Oval Office.
Press secretary Robert Gibbs holds his daily briefing at 11 AM Pacific and Obama meets with the Congressional Black Caucus in the White House.
Then Obama and Biden hold back-to-back meetings with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.
President Barack Obama honored Stevie Wonder last night in the White House.
This evening, Obama hosts his hometown Chicago Bulls basketball team in the White House.
Last night, it was Obama favorite Stevie Wonder.
Obama’s budget proposal is big, some $3.6 trillion. It’s inflated to a large degree because he is no longer keeping some spending commitments off the books, as the Bush/Cheney Administration did.
And here’s how the New York Times describes it: President Obama’s new budget blueprint estimates a stunning deficit of $1.75 trillion for the current fiscal year, which began five months ago, then lays out a wrenching change of course as he seeks to fund his own priorities while stanching the flow of red ink.
By redirecting enormous streams of deficit spending toward programs like health care, education and energy, and paying for some of it through taxes on the rich, pollution surcharges, and cuts in such inviolable programs as farm subsidies, the $3.55 trillion spending plan Mr. Obanma is undertaking signals a radical change of course that Congress has yet to endorse.
The deficit he inherited, a shortfall of more than $1 trillion as the current fiscal year began, has continued to swell in recent months with additional bank bailouts, the first wave of spending from the newly enacted stimulus plan and the continuing costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The administration, as it had announced, will try to cut that amount sharply by 2013, when Mr. Obama’s first term ends, to $533 billion, even as it escalates spending on crucial priorities.
“There are times when you can afford to redecorate your house,” Mr. Obama said on Thursday morning as he released an outline of the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins in October, “and there are times when you have to focus on rebuilding its foundation.”
His administration will attempt to close the large fiscal gap even while starting a major health-care initiative meant to substantially extend coverage; to do so, it foresees increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans and using revenues from a new program: selling carbon credits to manufacturers as part of a cap-and-trade plan meant to slow climate change.
Further savings would come from such items as a proposal to phase out government payments to crop producers making more than $500,000. Additional revenues are posited from a tightening of tax-code enforcement.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger kicks off the campaign for five initiatives tied to the state budget compromise on the May 19th California special election ballot with a press conference this afternoon in Sacramento. The event will be at a child development center that would probably have closed had the budget deal not finally been reached.
Schwarzenegger will be joined at the event by other members of his newly formed California Budget Reform Now group, including Senate President Prom Tem Darrell Steinberg, former Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill, California Alliance for Jobs Executive Director Jim Earp, Placer County Sheriff and California State Sheriffs’ Association President Ed Bonner, Sacramento County Sheriff John McGinness, and California Chamber of Commerce President Allan Zaremberg.
The shape of the opposition is still unclear.
** FAR RIGHT FURY OVER CALIFORNIA TAX HIKES AND OPEN PRIMARY.Bill Bennett told conservative California Republican convention delegates meeting in Sacramento just what they wanted to hear today. In a speech that sounded exactly like what he was saying 20 years ago — aside from substituting Islamic terrorists for Soviet Communists as the big bad — the veteran right-wing pundit and former Reagan era education secretary soothed the audience by telling them that their ideology hadn’t really lost in November. Because John McCain didn’t run as a conservative. Enough of a conservative, that is. And, besides, Barack Obama won big because the education system has brainwashed younger voters.
However, much as they liked being pandered to by Bennett’s old-time religion, California’s far right Republicans are fit to be tied now. After half of their state convention, they’re engaging in a
festival of recriminations over a half dozen of their legislators breaking ranks to pass a big tax increase to help out the strapped state budget, as well as another 15 GOP legislators voting to pass an open primary system in the Golden State. The two moves are viewed as anathema by the far right. …
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The oil rally of about $10 per barrel over the last week coincides with the enactment of the Obama economic recovery program, which traders think will stimulate more economic activity.
President Barack Obama said today that financial speculation needs to be strongly monitored and regulated.
** OBAMA CALLS FOR NEW FINANCIAL REGULATIONS. Appearing with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and National Economic Council director Larry Summers this afternoon in the White House, President Barack Obama called for a new financial regulatory approach in the wake of Wall Street’s near inundation by speculation on unknown and worthless assets.
Here are excerpts from Obama’s speech: Hello, everybody. This afternoon, I met with members of my economic team and some key leaders in Congress to discuss the threats to our financial markets in this new century and how we must transform our regulatory system to meet them.
In recent months, we’ve seen turmoil on Wall Street like we haven’t seen in decades, as major financial institutions have faltered or have been sold off. And we have seen the fallout on Main Street, as the market crisis became a credit crisis, and families struggle to get loans to buy a home or a car, to start a small business or to pay for college.
This financial crisis was not inevitable. It happened when Wall Street wrongly presumed markets would continuously rise, and traded in complex financial products without fully evaluating their risks. Here in Washington, our regulations lagged behind changes in our markets — and too often, regulators failed to use the authority that they had to protect consumers, markets and the economy.
We now know from painful experience that we can no longer sustain 21st century markets with 20th century regulations, and that while free markets are the key to our progress, they do not give us free license to take whatever we can get, however we can get it.
But let me be clear: The choice we face is not between some oppressive government-run economy or a chaotic and unforgiving capitalism. Rather, strong financial markets require clear rules of the road, not to hinder financial institutions, but to protect consumers and investors, and ultimately to keep those financial institutions strong. Not to stifle, but to advance competition, growth and prosperity. And not just to manage crises, but to prevent crises from happening in the first place, by restoring accountability, transparency and trust in our financial markets. These must be the goals of a 21st century regulatory framework that we seek to create. …
First, financial institutions that pose serious risks, systemic risks, to our market should be subject to serious oversight by the government. And here’s why. When the Federal Reserve steps in as a lender of last resort, which it’s had to do repeatedly since this financial crisis began, it’s providing an insurance policy underwritten by the American taxpayer. And taxpayers should be assured that the Fed thoroughly understands the institutions that it is effectively insuring and actively monitoring them to make sure that they’re not taking risks that will cost taxpayers in the long term.
Second, our regulatory system — and each of our major markets — must be strong enough to withstand both system-wide stress and the failure of one or more large institutions. And that means modernizing and streamlining our regulatory structure, and monitoring both the scale and scope of risks that institutions can take.
Third, to rebuild trust in our markets, we must redouble our efforts to promote openness, transparency and plain language throughout our financial system.
Fourth, we need strong and uniform supervision of financial products marketed to investors and consumers. And we should base this oversight not on abstract models created by the institutions themselves, but on actual data on how actual people make financial decisions.
Fifth, we must demand strict accountability, starting at the top. Executives who violate the public trust must be held responsible.
Sixth, we must make sure our system of regulations covers appropriate institutions and markets, and is comprehensive and free of gaps, and prevents those being regulated from cherry-picking among competing regulators.
Finally, we must recognize that the challenges we face are not just American challenges, they are global challenges. So as we work to set high regulatory standards here in the United States, we have to challenge other countries around the world to do the same. That’s how we will stop financial crises from spilling across borders and prevent global crises of the sort that we now face. …
President Barack Obama scored well last night in his first address to a joint session of Congress, technically not a State of the Union address as this is his first year in office.
** SCHWARZENEGGER CREATES NEW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE FOR MAY 19TH CALIFORNIA SPECIAL ELECTION. It’s a follow-on to his California Dream Team PAC called Budget Reform Now. Its purpose? To promote passage of the five initiatives spelled out in yesterday’s edition linked to the final state budget deal.
Ironically, the Schwarzenegger PAC used to be called the California Recovery Team. I mentioned some time back that that might be a more apt name.
Budget Reform Now is comprised of law enforcement, business, and labor groups.
** MORE SETBACKS FOR COLEMAN IN LAST OUTSTANDING U.S. SENATE RACE. Democrat Al Franken’s razor-thin lead over Republican Norm Coleman in that much-recounted Minnesota Senate race is holding up, with Coleman’s lawyers losing out on repeated issues in their court case. Here are the details.
Frank will, as noted before, likely be the 59th Democratic vote in the 100-seat Senate, making it easier for Democrats to stymie a Republican filibuster.
** NEW GALLUP POLL: VIEWS ON BANK TAKEOVERS “FLUID.” OR, WHAT’S IN A NAME? Bank nationalization is a live option now, given the near inundation of the private financial sector in a sea of failed speculation and illiquidity. Not that many mainstream pols want to say they’re for it. Former President Bill Clinton (see yesterday’s item) essentially endorsed it, but wanted to call it something, anything, else. The stock market dragged downward by financial stocks went up yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said bank takeovers would not be necessary.
We’ll see.
Meanwhile, a new Gallup Poll finds majority support for taking over major American banks. But minority support for “nationalizing” them.
Similarly, only a minority favors giving aid to failing banks. That’s because Wall Street and bankers are very unpopular, especially after the first $350 billion tranche from the financial bailout disappeared, as far as can otherwise be made out, down the rabbit hole.
With all eyes on the possibility of increased U.S. government ownership of embattled bank Citibank, and with increased discussion of the need for a government takeover of other major banks, a new USA Today/Gallup poll indicates that Americans’ reactions to these prospects vary significantly, depending on how the process is described to them. A majority of Americans (54%) favor a temporary government “takeover” of major U.S. banks, but a much lower minority (37%) favor a temporary “nationalization” of the banks.
The new poll, conducted Feb. 20-22, used a split-sample technique to gauge the impact of different descriptions of the bank takeover situation. A random half of the sample was asked whether they favored or opposed “the federal government temporarily taking over major U.S. banks in danger of failing in an attempt to stabilize them,” while the other half was asked whether they favored or opposed “the federal government temporarily nationalizing major U.S. banks in danger of failing in an attempt to stabilize them.”
(Separate Gallup questioning shows only 39% favoring “giving aid to U.S. banks and financial companies in danger of failing,” when this idea is included in a list of possible steps the government could take to deal with problems in the economy. Fifty-nine percent oppose it. These results are almost identical to those seen regarding possible “nationalizing” of banks.)
Taken together, these results reflect the power of language when it comes to describing government policies: the words “taking over” are significantly more palatable to the average American than “nationalizing.”
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHITMAN’S SAMPLER: EX-EBAY CEO MIRRORS CRISIS ON THE RIGHT.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama has a busy day after delivering a powerful performance last night in what amounts to his first State of the Union address.
The speech, which clocked in at 52 minutes, was not technically a State of the Union address as Obama has been president for only a month. But it had all the other atmospherics and dynamics of one.
Obama focused principally on the economy, with tasteful doses of populism and hope tempered by realism and lowered material expectations in the near term. He noted in passing that he is out to end the war in Iraq “responsibly,” and is about to release a timeline on that which is somewhat slower than his campaign promise and leaves a large residual force in-country. Energy, health care, and education were the other major areas of focus.
Today Obama named former Washington Governor Gary Locke to be the new secretary of commerce. Team O has to be hoping the third time’s the charm, as earlier appointees New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg didn’t quite work out. Locke, an Asian-American, is a free trader who has been involved in extensive trade dealings with China.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal did not fare so well delivering the Republican response to President Obama. He was largely panned … on Fox News.
Vice President Joe Biden fanned out to the morning TV shows to talk up Obama’s address last night and cement the impression of great success. He chairs the first meeting of the economic recovery implementation team, while Obama conducts various meetings with senior advisors.
Obama and Biden meet with Democratic congressional leaders in the White House, then Obama meets with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on the new regulation program for the financial industry.
Obama then makes a statement about those meetings and his financial regulation ideas.
Tonight, Obama and First Lady MIchelle Obama host Steve Wonder in a performance at the White House.
Wonder will perform in the East Room, and receive the Library of Congress Gershwin Prize, named for the classic American composer George Gershwin.
Wonder’s “Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I’m Yours” was the de facto campaign theme song for Obama.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is back in California after a whirlwind trip to Washington for the winter meeting of the National Governors Association and meetings at the Obama White House.
He was in Los Angeles yesterday to see his family, having been engaged in marathon negotiation sessions prior to his Washington trip around the finally concluded California budget compromise.
Today he has private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly centering on plans to explain the budget deal to Californians and on the economic crisis. He has no scheduled public events.
In other developments, Schwarzenegger will play himself in a cameo appearance in his friend Sylvester Stallone’s new movie, The Expendables. The movie, slated for 2010 release, stars a host of figures from action movie hits and centers on a group of mercenaries going to South America to take down a dictator, only to be betrayed.
Schwarzenegger will film his role, taking less than a day, sometime in the spring in LA.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is finding it tough going trying to put together a national unity government. The centrist Kadima and liberal Labour parties have turned him down, leaving his conservative Likud looking to Israel’s smaller right-wing parties.
** FAR RIGHT FURY OVER CALIFORNIA TAX HIKES AND OPEN PRIMARY.Bill Bennett told conservative California Republican convention delegates meeting in Sacramento just what they wanted to hear today. In a speech that sounded exactly like what he was saying 20 years ago — aside from substituting Islamic terrorists for Soviet Communists as the big bad — the veteran right-wing pundit and former Reagan era education secretary soothed the audience by telling them that their ideology hadn’t really lost in November. Because John McCain didn’t run as a conservative. Enough of a conservative, that is. And, besides, Barack Obama won big because the education system has brainwashed younger voters.
However, much as they liked being pandered to by Bennett’s old-time religion, California’s far right Republicans are fit to be tied now. After half of their state convention, they’re engaging in a
festival of recriminations over a half dozen of their legislators breaking ranks to pass a big tax increase to help out the strapped state budget, as well as another 15 GOP legislators voting to pass an open primary system in the Golden State. The two moves are viewed as anathema by the far right. …
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $107 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured markets today by saying that the economic contraction will likely end late this year as Obama Administration stimulative policies take hold. He said the banks won’t have to be nationalized.
** OBAMA’S STATE OF THE UNION POSITIONING: Post-partisan progressive, opportunity out of crisis, lowering short-term expectations while raising long-term hope.
** EXCERPTS FROM TONIGHT’S OBAMA ADDRESS TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS.We have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn’t afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.
Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here.
Now is the time to act boldly and wisely – to not only revive this economy, but to build a new foundation for lasting prosperity. Now is the time to jumpstart job creation, re-start lending, and invest in areas like energy, health care, and education that will grow our economy, even as we make hard choices to bring our deficit down. That is what my economic agenda is designed to do, and that’s what I’d like to talk to you about tonight. …..
The recovery plan and the financial stability plan are the immediate steps we’re taking to revive our economy in the short-term. But the only way to fully restore America’s economic strength is to make the long-term investments that will lead to new jobs, new industries, and a renewed ability to compete with the rest of the world. The only way this century will be another American century is if we confront at last the price of our dependence on oil and the high cost of health care; the schools that aren’t preparing our children and the mountain of debt they stand to inherit. That is our responsibility.
In the next few days, I will submit a budget to Congress. So often, we have come to view these documents as simply numbers on a page or laundry lists of programs. I see this document differently. I see it as a vision for America – as a blueprint for our future.
My budget does not attempt to solve every problem or address every issue. It reflects the stark reality of what we’ve inherited – a trillion dollar deficit, a financial crisis, and a costly recession. Given these realities, everyone in this chamber – Democrats and Republicans – will have to sacrifice some worthy priorities for which there are no dollars. And that includes me.
But that does not mean we can afford to ignore our long-term challenges. I reject the view that says our problems will simply take care of themselves; that says government has no role in laying the foundation for our common prosperity. ….
Yesterday, I held a fiscal summit where I pledged to cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term in office. My administration has also begun to go line by line through the federal budget in order to eliminate wasteful and ineffective programs. As you can imagine, this is a process that will take some time. But we’re starting with the biggest lines. We have already identified two trillion dollars in savings over the next decade.
In this budget, we will end education programs that don’t work and end direct payments to large agribusinesses that don’t need them. We’ll eliminate the no-bid contracts that have wasted billions in Iraq, and reform our defense budget so that we’re not paying for Cold War-era weapons systems we don’t use. We will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse in our Medicare program that doesn’t make our seniors any healthier, and we will restore a sense of fairness and balance to our tax code by finally ending the tax breaks for corporations that ship our jobs overseas. ….
I know that we haven’t agreed on every issue thus far, and there are surely times in the future when we will part ways. But I also know that every American who is sitting here tonight loves this country and wants it to succeed. That must be the starting point for every debate we have in the coming months, and where we return after those debates are done. That is the foundation on which the American people expect us to build common ground. ….
But in my life, I have also learned that hope is found in unlikely places; that inspiration often comes not from those with the most power or celebrity, but from the dreams and aspirations of Americans who are anything but ordinary.
I think about Leonard Abess, the bank president from Miami who reportedly cashed out of his company, took a $60 million bonus, and gave it out to all 399 people who worked for him, plus another 72 who used to work for him. He didn’t tell anyone, but when the local newspaper found out, he simply said, ”I knew some of these people since I was 7 years old. I didn’t feel right getting the money myself.”
I think about Greensburg, Kansas, a town that was completely destroyed by a tornado, but is being rebuilt by its residents as a global example of how clean energy can power an entire community – how it can bring jobs and businesses to a place where piles of bricks and rubble once lay. “The tragedy was terrible,” said one of the men who helped them rebuild. “But the folks here know that it also provided an incredible opportunity.”
And I think about Ty’Sheoma Bethea, the young girl from that school I visited in Dillon, South Carolina – a place where the ceilings leak, the paint peels off the walls, and they have to stop teaching six times a day because the train barrels by their classroom. She has been told that her school is hopeless, but the other day after class she went to the public library and typed up a letter to the people sitting in this room. She even asked her principal for the money to buy a stamp. The letter asks us for help, and says, “We are just students trying to become lawyers, doctors, congressmen like yourself and one day president, so we can make a change to not just the state of South Carolina but also the world. We are not quitters.”
Schwarzenegger’s office hasn’t commented on the specific report, but becoming an independent is something that has been discussed on occasion by members of Schwarzenegger’s various circles.
Schwarzenegger last addressed a California Republican Party convention in Palm Springs in 2007, at which he delivered a lecture urging the party to stop its veer to the right and move more toward the center. He was followed immediately by Texas Governor Rick Perry, who contradicted Schwarzenegger and gave the delegates a gust of the old-time religion.
Although he intervened in last year’s California presidential primary to help his friend John McCain lock up the nomination by knocking MItt Romney out of the race, he campaigned only once for McCain against Barack Obama. That was his customary election eve appearance in Columbus, Ohio, where he has extensive interests including the annual Arnold Classic.
Solis is an advocate of soc-called card check legislation, in which a union can be certified by getting a majority of workers to sign cards, rather than hold an election. This is a top priority for labor, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada says it won’t be brought up in the Senate until late summer.
** BILL CLINTON: NATIONALIZE THE BANKS.Talking about the financial crisis with CNBC, former President Bill Clinton says that it’s time to nationalize banks. Although he doesn’t really want to call it that.
BECKY QUICK: Is there a chance that we could get pushed into nationalizing the banks? And would that be Japan all over again?
PRESIDENT CLINTON: No, it would not.
BECKY QUICK: It would not?
PRESIDENT CLINTON: No, it would not because if you look at what the FDIC does, they’re not running these banks for the long run, right?
BECKY QUICK: No.
PRESIDENT CLINTON: They are moving them. So I don’t know. I take the administration at its word. They are doing everything they can to avoid– having to do a takeover of the very largest banks. They believe that the banks that the FDIC and Sheila Bair, who I think has done a fabulous job, I think she’s great.
But the banks they took over were in, you know, they were wrecked, rot, they couldn’t be rescued. So I think the administration is trying to create conditions in which the– no other banks will descend that low. And they won’t have to take over any more, particularly the mega banks.
But the point I wanna make to everybody is whatever happens will probably be all right as long as we deal with it this year. That is, I would rather them do what they’re doing, which is trying to honestly deal with these banking problems this year and just get through it. ‘Cause in the end, we’re not gonna have a national banking system. We’re gonna have a system we got now. We’re gonna have the FDIC and all the backups and the Federal Reserve. And we’ll have private banks again. It’ll be all right whatever happens, if we’ll just go on and deal with it now carefully. And I appears to me that they’re doing that.
** WHAT OBAMA NEEDS TO DO TONIGHT. In a nutshell, in what is essentially a State of the Union address, President Barack Obama needs to lower expectations and raise hopes.
It’s a paradox.
** INITIATIVES SET FOR MAY 19TH CALIFORNIA SPECIAL ELECTION. Here’s what is on the California ballot coming out of the finally enacted compromise state budget deal.
Proposition 1A would create a spending cap based on the rate of growth over the past decade. If approved, it would extend the length of the state’s temporary tax hikes from two years to five.
Proposition 1B would change the state’s Proposition 98 education funding requirements for supplemental education payments to local districts due to recent budget cuts.
Proposition 1C would allow the state to borrow from future Lottery proceeds.
Proposition 1D would remove some funding from the so-called First 5 Commissions for children and family programs, derived from the increased tobacco tax under Proposition 10, to use for budget balancing.
Proposition 1E would remove some funding from the Mental Health Services Act, derived from the Proposition 63 income tax hike for millionaires, to use for budget balancing.
Proposition 1F would stop state elected officials from receiving pay raises when the state budget is in deficit.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHITMAN’S SAMPLER: EX-EBAY CEO JOINS THE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN CULTURE.
NASA launched a rocket early this morning to place the first satellite to study greenhouse gas emissions into orbit around the earth. But the launch failed and the satellite landed in the ocean near Antarctica.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama meets with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and prepares to address the Congress and the nation in a major address at 6 PM Pacific.
The speech, which is not technically a State of the Union address as Obama has been president for only a month, will be roadblocked on all broadcast and cable news nets.
Obama will focus principally on the economic crisis, with additional elements of the speech dealing with health care, energy, and geopolitics.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Defense Secretary Bob Gates in the Oval Office just prior to the unofficial State of the Union. They will discuss the situation in Afghanistan, on which the administration is continuing a strategic review. Gates said at the NATO defense ministers’ meeting last week in Poland that the US is open to a truce with the Taliban.
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso arrived in Washington last night. Today he is the first head of state to meet with President Barack Obama in the White House.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is back in California today after a whirlwind trip to Washington for the winter meeting of the National Governors Association. After he and First Lady Maria Shriver attended a dinner in the White House Sunday night, he participated in a private meeting with President Obama and other governors in the White House yesterday morning and then appeared publicly with the president on the White House lawn.
Schwarzenegger and several other Republican governors, including Florida Governor Charlie Crist, are generally backing the Obama Administration in its efforts to stimulate the US economy.
Schwarzenegger has no planned public events today.
He’s preparing to start working with California voters to explain the controversial new state budget and deal with the economic crisis.
** FAR RIGHT FURY OVER CALIFORNIA TAX HIKES AND OPEN PRIMARY.Bill Bennett told conservative California Republican convention delegates meeting in Sacramento just what they wanted to hear today. In a speech that sounded exactly like what he was saying 20 years ago — aside from substituting Islamic terrorists for Soviet Communists as the big bad — the veteran right-wing pundit and former Reagan era education secretary soothed the audience by telling them that their ideology hadn’t really lost in November. Because John McCain didn’t run as a conservative. Enough of a conservative, that is. And, besides, Barack Obama won big because the education system has brainwashed younger voters.
However, much as they liked being pandered to by Bennett’s old-time religion, California’s far right Republicans are fit to be tied now. After half of their state convention, they’re engaging in a
festival of recriminations over a half dozen of their legislators breaking ranks to pass a big tax increase to help out the strapped state budget, as well as another 15 GOP legislators voting to pass an open primary system in the Golden State. The two moves are viewed as anathema by the far right. …
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $109 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
President Barack Obama told the nation’s governors this morning during a White House meeting that he is directing $15 billion of federal funds into Medicaid health care programs in the states.
** NEW POLL: THAT TERRIBLY CONTROVERSIAL MICHELLE OBAMA … I remember hearing all the time last year about what a problem Michelle Obama was going to be for Barack Obama’s campaign. She was angry, had a chip on her shoulder, wasn’t proud of America, wrote a bad senior thesis at Princeton, or so the stories went. The brand new CBS News/New York Times poll shows that Michelle Obama is the most popular first lady in decades. She starts off much popular than did Laura Bush, Hillary Clinton, Barbara Bush, or Nancy Reagan. She is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by only 5%. 44% have no opinion of her. Hillary Clinton started off with a 44% favorable rating, to 16% unfavorable, while Nancy Reagan had a 28% favorable rating at the start of her husband’s presidency. And another myth bites the dust.
** ABC/WASHPOST POLL: BIG BACKING FOR OBAMA AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAM. The new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds President Barack Obama’s job approval rating at 68%. And support for the economic recovery program he got through Congress – despite lots of media flak – at a whopping 64%. Oddly, I just heard right-wing Congressman Tom McClintock, citing spurious polling numbers, tell the California Republican Party convention over the weekend over the weekend that the stimulus plan was wildly unpopular and had already brought Republicans back to political parity in America. Now resuming discussion of the real world … Obama’s popularity is extraordinarily high amongst Democrats, and very high with Republicans. But less than half as high with Republicans as with Democrats. Obama gets the nod on the economy over Republicans by a whopping 61% to 26%. He also gets credit for reaching out to Republicans, even though few GOP politicians are reaching back to him. But was predicted …
** RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK TICKS UPWARD. The latest AP poll measuring whether voters think America is on the right track or the wrong track has ticked upward since the enactment of President Barack Obama’s phase one economic recovery bill.
It’s now at 40% right track/49% wrong track. Before Obama’s inauguration in January, it was at 35% right track/54% wrong track.
In early December, it was 32% right track/60% wrong track.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHITMAN’S SAMPLER: FORMER EBAY CEO JOINS THE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN CULTURE IN EARNEST.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Another big week in presidential politics, and a more relaxed week in California politics.
President Barack Obama delivers his first address to Congress, Tuesday night in prime time. He will discuss his first federal budget – he is seeking cuts even as he implements one of the largest economic programs in American history – the economic crisis, and some moves in America’s geopolitical crises.
After meeting with many of the nation’s mayors last week, and admonishing them to spend new federal funds with care, Obama had dinner last night with most of the nation’s governors and met again in a more business-like setting this morning.
While Obama has had very little luck with House Republicans, and only some luck with Senate Republicans, he is forging alliances with top Republican governors, most notably Florida Governor Charlie Crist and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Both praised him yesterday on Sunday TV chat shows. His Republican gubernatorial critics of the day? South Carolina’s Mark Sanford and Lousiana’s Bobby Jindal, who may, somewhat incongruously, hope to run for president in 2010.
Jindal will deliver the Republican response Tuesday night to the president’s address.
Having the governors of South Carolina and Louisiana – both of whom have said they won’t take federal economic recovery dollars – as the face of the opposition is good for Obama. It shows the Republican Party pinned back into a geographical and ideological corner.
On the geopolitical front, the Obama Administration continues its complex dance with Russia, which is now aiding the supply of US troops fighting in Afghanistan, but wants more concessions on its influence in its “near abroad” and so is still providing some assistance to Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel’s unsettled governance continues in the wake of elections two weeks ago. (See item just below.) Europe is in in economic turmoil, with Central and Eastern European nations sliding toward insolvency.
And Mexico is becoming a sleeper issue of major concern, as drug cartels alternately battle and infiltrate the government, sometimes forcing temporary bridge closures along the border with the US.
In California politics, a quieter week. Gubernatorial hopefuls continue their moves, which are still pretty low-key, and I have a column coming on this.
The dust is settling from the controversial state budget compromise, with California’s Republicans still reeling over the breaking of their budget blockade and historic tax increase occasioned with key Republican votes.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will be increasingly evident in public later this week, following his return from Washington, talking about the budget and the economic crisis.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama meets with most of the nation’s governors in the White House, then holds a press avail on the White House lawn. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is there for both.
Obama is releasing another $15 billion from the economic recovery program to pay for health care costs.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden host a fiscal responsibility summit in the White House in advance of Obama’s big address tomorrow and release of a proposed federal budget. Which he proposes to cut, with major cuts coming in the Terror War effort around the world.
Meanwhile, back from what looks like a successful tour of Asia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that she will go to the Middle East next week
Perhaps the cloudy Israeli political scene will be more settled by then. Though centrist Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima finished first, conservative former Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s Likud finds more splinter right-wing parties as allies. So President Shimon Peres, a former Labour prime minister, gave the nod to Netanyahu to try to form a government.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Washington for the winter meeting of the National Governors Association. After he and First Lady Maria Shriver attended a dinner in the White House last night, he participated in a private meeting with President Obama and other governors in the White House this morning and then appeared publicly with the president on the White House lawn.
Schwarzenegger is expected to return to California later today.
He will then work with Californian voters to explain the controversial new state budget and deal with the economic crisis.
After five previous Academy Award nominations, Kate Winslet won the Best Actress Oscar last night for The Reader. Slumdog Millionaire won Best Picture, Sean Penn nabbed another Oscar as Best Actor for Milk, and the late Heath Ledger won Best Supporting Actor for a performance for the ages as the Joker in The Dark Knight.
** FAR RIGHT FURY OVER CALIFORNIA TAX HIKES AND OPEN PRIMARY.Bill Bennett told conservative California Republican convention delegates meeting in Sacramento just what they wanted to hear today. In a speech that sounded exactly like what he was saying 20 years ago — aside from substituting Islamic terrorists for Soviet Communists as the big bad — the veteran right-wing pundit and former Reagan era education secretary soothed the audience by telling them that their ideology hadn’t really lost in November. Because John McCain didn’t run as a conservative. Enough of a conservative, that is. And, besides, Barack Obama won big because the education system has brainwashed younger voters.
However, much as they liked being pandered to by Bennett’s old-time religion, California’s far right Republicans are fit to be tied now. After half of their state convention, they’re engaging in a
festival of recriminations over a half dozen of their legislators breaking ranks to pass a big tax increase to help out the strapped state budget, as well as another 15 GOP legislators voting to pass an open primary system in the Golden State. The two moves are viewed as anathema by the far right. …
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
This is up several dollars per barrel since the enactment of the Obama economic recovery bill, which may stimulate the economy into greater activitiy and, hence, energy use..
The drop of $107 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
With America in an even darker mood than when The Dark Knight became the movie of the decade, we’ll see if Watchmen is the next big, dark comic book movie. Set in an alternate 1985 America where Richard Nixon is still president, Watchmen is a complex mystery about a group of mostly retired or discredited superheroes. (The fellow on the right of the picture killed Woodward and Bernstein and JFK.) It opens March 6th.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … WHITMAN’S SAMPLER: FORMER EBAY CEO JOINS THE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN CULTURE IN EARNEST.
** OBAMA TODAY – SUNDAY. President Barack Obama goes over plans for the federal budget and prepares for his Tuesday address to Congress.
He holds private discussions today on US strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq and reviews Defense Secretary Bob Gates’s report on a rather disappointing NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Poland, where very little new support emerged for the effort in Afghanistan.
Obama is also reviewing reaction to a solution to the Iranian nuclear controversy floated by Germany; namely, that an international consortium would run Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
Tonight he hosts most of the nation’s governors at a dinner in the White House.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SUNDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Washington for the National Governors Association winter meeting.
He appeared this morning on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos. There he praised President Obama and said that if conservative Republican governors don’t want their states’ share of the economic recovery package, they should give it to him for California.
He also praised Republican legislators who went along with the compromise budget including some tax hikes, noting that it’s the job of a governor to find solutions that work in the real world, not promote an ideology.
He was especially enthusiastic about the open primary proposal that passed the Legislature, heading to the 2010 ballot, and vowed to pass it with the voters to go along with his recently passed redistricting reform initiative. An open primary initiative passed in California during the ’90s, but was thrown out by the courts. Another should have won in 2004, but Schwarzenegger didn’t push hard for it, having been advised incorrectly that it would pass anyway.
The former action superstar also confirmed a rumor that he will make a cameo appearance later this year in his friend Sylvester Stallone’s 2010 movie, The Expendables. The movie is about a group of mercenaries who go to South America to overthrow a corrupt dictator, but are betrayed. Other actors in the movie are Schwarzenegger friend Mickey Rourke, Jet Li, Jason Statham, Dolph Lundgren, and Eric Roberts as a shady CIA officer. Schwarzenegger will film the cameo sometime in the spring.
What role will he play during his day of filming? Some say he will play himself. But maybe not.
He also revealed that his favorite political movie is the Robert Redford 1972 classic The Candidate. (Which I watch before every election, and which holds up remarkably well.) “For a better way, Bill McKay …”
And, of course … “What do we do now?”
Tonight Schwarzenegger and First Lady Maria Shriver join other governors for dinner at the White House with President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama.
Yesterday, Schwarzenegger co-chaired a meeting with New York Governor David Paterson of governors and Obama Administration officials on climate change and energy policy. California is awaiting federal approval under the Clean Air Act of its landmark climate change program, which other states are patterning their programs after. The other participants in the meeting were Florida Governor Charlie Crist, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, Vermont Governor Jim Douglas, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Washington Governor Chris Gregoire, Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, White House energy and environment chief Carol Browner, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Secretary of Interior, Energy Secretary Steven Chu, and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson.
** FAR RIGHT FURY OVER CALIFORNIA TAX HIKES AND OPEN PRIMARY.Bill Bennett told conservative California Republican convention delegates meeting in Sacramento just what they wanted to hear today. In a speech that sounded exactly like what he was saying 20 years ago — aside from substituting Islamic terrorists for Soviet Communists as the big bad — the veteran right-wing pundit and former Reagan era education secretary soothed the audience by telling them that their ideology hadn’t really lost in November. Because John McCain didn’t run as a conservative. Enough of a conservative, that is. And, besides, Barack Obama won big because the education system has brainwashed younger voters.
However, much as they liked being pandered to by Bennett’s old-time religion, California’s far right Republicans are fit to be tied now. After half of their state convention, they’re engaging in a festival of recriminations over a half dozen of their legislators breaking ranks to pass a big tax increase to help out the strapped state budget, as well as another 15 GOP legislators voting to pass an open primary system in the Golden State. The two moves are viewed as anathema by the far right. …
President Barack Obama delivers his weekly video/radio address, discussing the enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. He says it’s just one phase of what needs to be done.
** OBAMA TODAY – SATURDAY. Callously, President Barack Obama has failed to note the passing of Socks the Cat, aged 18. The former First Cat, during the Clinton Administration, passed away despite heroic efforts to save him. Or her. As it were.
Socks resided with former Clinton secretary Bettie Curry – who re-surfaced as a volunteer in Obama’s Washington, DC headquarters during his primary battle with former First Lady Hillary Clinton – since 2001.
In other action, President Obama said in his weekly video/radio address, which you may view above, that you will be begin feeling many of the tax cuts in his $787 billion economic recovery act – 35% of which is tax cuts – around April 1st. He was apparently not joking.
In six weeks, he says, the average American family will be $65 a week richer.
Obama has no scheduled public events today.
But he is being felt in other ways. Targeted US attacks, utilizing Hellfire missiles launched from Predator drones, are continuing in Pakistan. The attacks are designed to eliminate Taliban and Al Qaeda cadre openly using this US ally as a safe haven while continuing assaults in Afghanistan and plotting terorist attacks elsewhere.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in China today, where she is assuring officials that investments in US treasuries are good. They’d better believe that, since China is largely funding the US government at the moment. But they probably will, because the US remains the most stable of all international investments. Which tells you something about the global economy.
And California’s own, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, is in Afghanistan, meeting with top leaders there to assess the state of the Afghan War for the Congress. A half-dozen of her allies are along for the trip, including San Francisco Bay Area Congressman George Miller and Silicon Valley Congresswoman Anna Eshoo.
Last but not least, the nation’s governors – sans Alaska’s Sarah Palin – have converged on Washington for the National Governors Association winter meeting and talks with the Obama Administration. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and First Lady Maria Shriver have extensive schedules there.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE – SATURDAY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in Washington for the winter meeting of the National Governors Association.
He will appear Sunday on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos and on CNN’s State of the Union.
Today, Schwarzenegger appears at the National Governors Association Infrastructure Panel Discussion at the JW Marriot Hotel with Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and others. Schwarzenegger, Rendell, and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg formed the “Building America’s Future” coalition in 2008 to rally support for a renewed federal commitment to fund America’s infrastructure needs with state partners.
This afternoon, Schwarzenegger takes part in a climate change meeting with other governors and top Obama Administration officials. This meeting was prompted by a letter sent by Schwarzenegger and a dozen other governors last month prompting the new administration to form a federal/state partnership on climate change.
He is not attending this weekend’s California Republican Party convention in Sacramento, which promises to be a festival of recriminations on the right. Not only against Schwarzenegger and the half-dozen Republican legislators who voted for tax hikes, but also the many more who voted for the open primary. Which, in addition to being a blow against right-wing politics, enabled the tax hikes to pass.
While the former action superstar pursues his agenda, First Lady Maria Shriver has her own extensive schedule today in Washington. She addresses a luncheon session of governors on her WE Connect initiative, designed to help people connect to existing resources such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Food Stamps, the Child Tax Credit, Child Care Credit and Women, Infants and Children Program (WIC).
Then this afternoon, she has a press conference with West Virginia Governor Joe Minchin, La Opinion publisher Monica Lozano, and Intuit CEO Brad Smith promoting the earned income tax credit for lower-income Americans.
So, what should Kate Winslet wear to the Oscars?
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed Friday at $40.03 per barrel, up a few dollars over recent trading on some acceptance by global energy traders of the efficacy of the Obama recovery plan. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
The drop of $107 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
President Barack Obama was received like a rock star yesterday in Canada, where he promised that America will not become protectionist in the midst of the global economic crisis.
** CALIFORNIA 2010. GOP gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman announced today that Congressman Darrell Issa is supporting her. Thus dashing plenty of informed word that the funder of the 2003 California recall was taking a hard look at the race himself. And removing any real interest in his speech to this weekend’s California Republican Party convention. Hmm, maybe Issa should have teased the situation some more and then announced his endorsement in the speech …
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who hasn’t addressed a Republican state convention since he delivered a famous lecture to the Palm Springs convention in the fall of 2007 on the party’s declining relevancy, has just left the state after signing the controversial state budget into law. But before he did, he cut the budgets of the other statewide elected officials. (He’s also reduced his own budget.) Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, a Democratic gubernatorial hopeful, is hopping mad. His office received a 62% reduction. Garamendi ripped Schwarzenegger for the move, saying in a statement, implying the move was made because he’s been too outspokenly critical: “Let me assure the people of California, that even though the Governor has cut my office by 62 percent, I will continue to do the work they elected me to do. For some time I have been an outspoken critic of the budget process and the governor’s leadership because of the impact this budget will have on California’s education system, ability to compete in the world market place, and on the most vulnerable Californians.”
With conservative GOP activists in an uproar over the state budget deal that combines tax hikes and an open primary (which still has to be approved by voters next year), both of them anathema to their ideology, the self-styled moderates in the gubernatorial race, Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, continue to blast the budget.
In other words, they move themselves over to the right. Whitman’s given two speeches advertised as major this week, and several interviews, but has yet to suggest how she would actually balance the budget otherwise. Neither has Poizner, but he did have a realistic suggestion of passing a budget revision through the end of the fiscal year – without taxes, of course – and then working anew to find more places to cut.
** NEW COLUMN COMING UP … CALIFORNIA: FAR RIGHT FURY OVER TAXES AND OPEN PRIMARY.
** UPDATE: SCHWARZENEGGER WILL SIGN NEW CALIFORNIA BUDGET AT 2 PM PACIFIC. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will now sign California’s hard-fought new state budget at 2 PM in the Capitol.
** AMERICANS BACK AFGHAN WAR, WITH RESERVATIONS. With President Barack Obama having this week ordered another 17,000 American troops in to Afghanistan, the new Gallup Poll shows that US voters support the war effort against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Only 30% say it was a mistake to send American troops into Afghanistan. 66% say it was the right thing to do.
For more than two years, a strong majority of Americans have said it was a mistake to send American troops into Iraq.
But there are clear limits on what most Americans want the US to do in Afghanistan. 54% say the mission should be to disrupt Islamic terrorists’ ability to stage attacks against the US. Only 30% say that the goal should be to build a stable democratic government in Afghanistan.
Apropos that, Defense Secretary Bob Gates said today in Poland that the US should be open to a truce with the Taliban.
President Obama’s decision, announced on Tuesday, to send 17,000 additional troops to Afghanistan was accompanied by a White House statement stressing that urgent action was needed because “the Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan.” This assertion would appear to reflect the opinions of a majority of Americans. When surveyed about Afghanistan earlier this month, Americans overwhelmingly said they would expect Afghanistan to fall under the Taliban’s control if the United States and its allies withdrew their forces. Only 21% said they did not expect the Taliban to retake control, and 9% had no opinion.
The harsh realities of the United States’ continued involvement in both Afghanistan and Iraq amid a precarious economic situation at home likely weigh on many Americans. In fact, Americans are almost evenly divided about whether the United States should keep a significant number of troops in Afghanistan until the situation improves (48%) or whether it should set a timetable for withdrawal (47%). Those who support a timetable mostly favor getting troops out sooner rather than later. But at least 6 in 10 Americans either favor keeping troops in Afghanistan with no timetable, or favor a long-range timetable of more than two years.
** GALLUP POLL ON OBAMA AT ONE MONTH. Barack Obama has been president for a month now. And though he is governing at a time of tumult, and there have been some missteps, his job approval rating in today’s Gallup tracking poll is about what it was when he delivered his inaugural address on January 20th.
Even though 78% are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, Obama’s job approval rating is a whopping 63%. Only 24% disapprove.
** UPDATE: SCHWARZENEGGER BUDGET SIGNING AT 1 PM PACIFIC. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signing of the hard-won new California state budget will now take place at 1 PM in the Capitol.
** OBAMA TODAY. Fresh off his first international trip as president, President Barack Obama addresses many of the nation’s mayors on the economic recovery program this morning in the White House. Vice President Joe Biden will also speak. Among those in attendance will be Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, both potential Democratic candidates for governor of California.
Along with his daily security briefing, Obama will go over the economic situation, confer with senior advisors, and have his weekly luncheon with Vice President Biden.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues her Asian tour. She’s already spoken today in Seoul, South Korea, again warning North Korea against further long-range missile testing and threats against its southern neighbor. She also discussed with reporters traveling with her a possible succession crisis in the Hermit State, to which she just named former Ambassador to South Korea Stephen Bosworth as special envoy.
Meanwhile, Israeli politics remain unsettled more than a week after national elections there. Though centrist Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima finished first, coming from behind to catch conservative former Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s Likud party, it’s Netanyahu who’s gotten the nod from Israeli President Shimon Peres, the former Labour prime minister, to form a coalition government. That’s because parties of the right, some of them far right, won more seats than parties of the center and the left.
Far right leader Avigdor Lieberman, whose anti-Arab Israel Beiteinu party finished third in the voting, came out for Netanyahu the day before, making it clear that Netanyahu could form a right-wing coalition government. He prefers a national unity government, with Livni’s Kadima and Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labour – once the dominant party in the country, but now relegated to fourth place – in prominent roles. So far, Livni has turned him down.
Netanyahu has a six week period in which he can try to horse trade his way to a national unity governement. Failing that, he can have the right-wing coalition government, but at the probably cost of more damage to Israel’s reputation around the world.
Californian Leon Panetta was sworn in yesterday as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
In a less complicated development, Californian Leon Panetta, the former White House chief of staff, federal budget director, and Northern California congressman, was sworn in yesterday as the new director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
He promised to be an honest broker of intelligence, in unspoken contrast with the heavy politicization of CIA for most of this decade.
Panetta was a controversial pick, drawing early opposition from the far right and from fellow Californian Dianne Feinstein, the new chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, which she quickly dropped. He ended up winning unanimous confirmation both in her Senate Intelligence Committee and from the full Senate.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private discussions in and around the Capitol today, mostly on California’s chronic budget crisis … No, that’s not right. I have to stop typing that. Thank God.
Schwarzenegger will sign California’s new budget this morning in a brief ceremony in the Capitol called a “photo spray.”
The former action superstar heads to Washington later today for the National Governor Association winter meeting there.
He will appear Sunday on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos and on CNN’s State of the Union.
He is not attending this weekend’s California Republican Party convention in Sacramento, which promises to be a festival of recriminations on the right. Not only against Schwarzenegger and the half-dozen Republican legislators who voted for tax hikes, but also the many more who voted for the open primary. Which, in addition to being a blow against right-wing politics, enabled the tax hikes to pass.
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $110 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today called California legislators “courageous” for their early morning vote for a state budget compromise which blended program cuts with tax hikes and various reforms, some more real than others.
** NEW YORK TIMES SETTLES WITH LOBBYIST AND FRIEND OF MCCAIN. According to the National Journal’s Hotline Oncall, the New York Times will acknowledge tomorrow in a special “Note To Readers” that its sensational story early last year about a purported affair between Senator John McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman went, as we say, somewhat off the tracks.
The New York Times and Washington lobbyist Vicki Iseman have settled her defamation lawsuit in which she claimed that the newspaper had falsely suggested she had engaged in a romantic and unethical relationship with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. In Friday’s editions, the Times is scheduled to issue a brief “Note to Readers” explaining that its story, published a year ago this month, did not “intend to conclude” that Iseman had engaged in an affair with McCain, or had acted unethically on behalf of her clients.
Iseman filed the $27 million lawsuit in Richmond, Va., federal court in late December. She dropped the litigation Thursday afternoon. No money changed hands. Iseman had previously told National Journal she wasn’t looking for money but wanted to see her reputation restored “as an honest broker in the political arena.”
In one of the most sensational stories of the presidential campaign, the Times published a 3,000-word, front-page article a year ago this month suggesting that the little-known telecommunications lobbyist had an affair with McCain during his first run for the White House in 1999. The story did not provide any evidence of an affair, but said that McCain’s top aides became convinced that the relationship was romantic and took steps to keep McCain and the lobbyist apart.
The story generated massive publicity. The Times was accused of publishing a salacious and unfair story. Even its own ombudsman, Clark Hoyt, joined in the criticism. Hoyt wrote, “If a newspaper is going to suggest an improper sexual affair… it owes readers more proof than The Times was able to provide.”
In a later series of interviews with National Journal, Iseman, 41, strongly denied having had an intimate relationship with McCain. A partner in the lobbying firm Alcalde & Fay, Iseman said in the interviews that the Times made her out to look like “a prostitute,” someone who had used a romantic relationship to win legislative favors.
In its “Note to Readers,” the Times will say: “An article published on February 21, 2008, about Sen. John McCain and his record as an ethics reformer who was at times blind to potential conflicts of interest included references to Vicki Iseman, a Washington lobbyist. The article did not state, and The Times did not intend to conclude, that Ms. Iseman had engaged in a romantic affair with Sen. McCain or an unethical relationship on behalf of her clients in breach of the public trust.”
A joint statement issued by the Times and Iseman said, “The Times has maintained that the article was an accurate, important examination of the record of Mr. McCain… as an ethics reformer who was at times blind to potential conflicts of interest.” The statement further noted that in dealing with Iseman, the story “focused on the fact that some top McCain advisers had confronted the senator with their concerns that the relationship had become romantic.”
To resolve the case, the statement said, “Ms. Iseman has accepted the Times’ explanation… that the article did not state, and The Times did not intend to conclude, that Ms. Iseman had engaged in a romantic affair with Senator McCain or an unethical relationship on behalf of her clients in breach of the public trust.”
** WHO’S BIPARTISAN? A new AP poll credits Barack Obama for reaching across the aisle to Republicans. Though, of course, the Republicans who are left after two national elections of widespread Democratic victories are mostly too conservative to reach back.
Not surprisingly, Congressional Republicans get very bad numbers for US voters for their stance on the economic crisis.
The AP survey reports 62% of U.S. adults believe President Obama is cooperating “about the right amount” with GOPers in Congress, while 27% think the same about the GOP’s work with Obama.
Conversely, 64% of adults believe Congressional GOPers are not cooperating enough with the POTUS, and only 30% believe Obama is not collaborating enough with GOPers. Another 6% and 5% believe the POTUS and GOPers, respectively, are working together too much.
These figures mirror the approval ratings for each group on the economy. Approximately two-thirds of adults, 68%, approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, and 27% disapprove. Only a third, however, approve of how GOPers in Congress are handling the economy, while 59% disapprove. The economic numbers for Congressional Dems are split nearly evenly — 49% of adults approve, and 45% disapprove.
** SOME CALIFORNIA BUDGET NOTES. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will sign the new state budget tomorrow. The budget totals $15 billion in spending reductions, $12.8 billion in temporary tax increases, $11.4 billion in borrowing (nearly half that from future Lottery proceeds) and a $1 billion reserve. It covers the remainder of the current fiscal year, which ends on June 30th, and the next fiscal year. So unless the economy further craters, we’re through with budget fights for this year.
Praise the Lord.
Just to be clear, the open primary provision passed as part of the deal with state Senator Abel Maldonado will go on the ballot for voter approval in 2010. It won’t be part of a likely special election on May 19th, when other fiscal portions of the new budget must be approved by voters. Following its fairly likely passage – it should have passed the last time it was on the ballot, a story for another day – the open primary system would then go into effect in the elections of 2012.
Schwarzenegger has rescinded stop work orders on billions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects around the state. He is also halting the move to fire 20,000 state employees.
That doesn’t meant that there won’t be lay-offs, as state Labor Secretary Victoria Bradshaw explained after Schwarzenegger’s noon press conference. The state is eliminating two paid holidays – Columbus Day and Lincoln’s Birthday – and instituting one unpaid “furlough” day per month for all state workers. That’s down from the original two furlough days per month that Schwarzenegger successfully ordered over the objections of public employee unions and state Controller John Chiang.
But the new furlough procedure is only set for about half the state workforce so far, those represented by the Service Employees International Union. There will be negotiations around the other half of the workforce. As a result, it’s not yet clear how many workers will be laid off. That number is somewhere “between zero and 10,000.”
President Barack Obama is making his first international trip as president, to Canada, which is about to withdraw its hard-fighting 2500-troop contingent from Afghanistan.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING ON END OF CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold a press conference on the end of California’s budget crisis this morning in the Capitol.
** FIRST TRANS-RUSSIA SHIPMENT OF SUPPLIES TO U.S FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN ON ITS WAY. The first shipment of supplies for US forces fighting in Afghanistan to cross the new Russian supply route left the Latvian port of Riga early today. The shipment will cross Russia and go through the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan before entering Afghanistan.
The new Russian supply route for US forces in Afghanistan is occasioned by the increasing turmoil in Pakistan, where supply lines for the effort in Afghanistan have been increasingly disrupted.
** CALIF0RNIA BUDGET CRISIS ENDS AS LEGISLATURE PASSES “SPATARO DEAL.” California’s chronic budget crisis, deeply exacerbated by the global economic crisis, came to an end for now early this morning when the Legislature passed a compromise budget of program cuts, tax hikes, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to close a $42 billion deficit over 18 months.
The final shape of the deal was negotiated over a lunch yesterday between moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The two men met over lunch at the posh but not pretentious Sacramento restaurant called Spataro, located just a few blocks from the Capitol. Outside on the patio, over cigars, they worked out what proved to be the final shape of the bill.
They both agreed on what have been longstanding political priorities for both: A move to an open primary system and an end to legislative pay increases during budget deficit years. They also agreed to halt legislative pay when the budget is late, but that was clearly a contingent proposal, which, not surprisingly, most legislators did not go along with.
Maldonado also won on a move to eliminate the proposed gas tax hike, which will be made up for with a slight increase in the income tax and Schwarzenegger’s blue pencil on several hundred million dollars in spending.
Schwarzenegger has long championed an open primary, which now goes to voters for approval without the need to gather signatures, as he had to do with his passed-the-second-time-round redistricting reform initiative.
And it could benefit Maldonado, who would otherwise have trouble winning a statewide Republican nomination. As he did in 2006, when Schwarzenegger did not campaign for him in his losing race for state controller against hard right candidate Tony Strickland, who went on to lose to Democrat John Chiang.
This ends what Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg notes is the longest continuous Senate session in history, nearly 46 hours. And marks a bitter defeat for the far right faction which presently dominates the California Republican Party. Making use of California’s near unique two-thirds vote requirement for passage of a budget, they nearly manipulated the state right off a fiscal and governance cliff. Now they will gather in convention this weekend, just across the street from Capitol Park, and contemplate a future which already found their ranks declining notably in comparison to those of independents and Democrats.
Schwarzenegger will not be on hand for that. He will be at the National Governors Assocation meeting. And will also appear on Sunday TV shows to discuss his and California’s near miss experience with political mortality.
The chief spokesman for NATO forces in Afghanistan says the 50% increase in US forces there will make a big difference.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama makes his first foreign trip today as president of the United States. To our neighbor and ally Canada. In Ottawa, he will be greeted by and meet first with Governor General Michaëlle Jean, the Queen of England’s representative in Canada and the nation’s official head of state as member of the British Commonwealth.
Then he proceeds to Parliament Hill where he will be greeted by and meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Canada’s head of government, and top parliamentary officials. He’ll spend a few hours meeting with Harper and others, discussing amongst other topics Canada’s decision to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. Unlike some US allies there, the Canadian forces have been in the thick of much of the fighting against resurgent Taliban and Al Qaeda forces.
Obama will also meet with Canadian opposition leader Michael Ignatieff and with US Embassy staff.
Back in Washington, Vice President Joe Biden holds various meetings, then heads over to Langley to swear in Californian Leon Panetta as the new CIA director.
And in Brussels, Belgium, Defense Secretary Bob Gates starts the NATO defense ministers summit. Afghanistan is his prime topic of discussion.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. No, it is no longer Groundhog Day.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, after marathon sessions over the past several days broken only by a brief return to Los Angeles to see his family, will comment late this morning on the passage of a new budget by the California Legislature.
Details to follow.
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in looking to Bill Clinton’s regulators (who didn’t help) and not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — Davis and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $111 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
President Barack Obama unveiled his $75 billion mortgage relief program, which he says will keep nine million people from losing their homes, today outside Phoenix.
** DEALING. Still no state budget resolution in California, but the haggling is underway in earnest. Republican state Senators Abel Maldonado and Dave Cox have both put themselves on offer, which remidns of an old politically incorrect joke which I won’t mention. Maldonado had lunch today with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, his old ally who Maldonado blames for leaving him in the lurch in his losing 2006 Republican primary campaign for state controller against hard right legislator Tom Strickland. Who naturally lost, and in the way of California politics, is now Maldonado’s Senate colleague.
In economic projections released by the central bank, the Fed’s Open Market Committee said it expected that the economy would contract by 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent this year, that unemployment would rise to 8.5 to 8.8 percent and that inflation would remain under greater pressure. Bleak economic data reflecting a sharpening slide in housing, trade, industrial production, spending and employment rates “more than offset” any potential impact from an economic stimulus plan, the Fed said, forcing it to cut its economic outlook.
Get ready for Stimulus II.
** THE NEWSOMS: EXPECTING. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and his new wife Jennifer Siebel confirmed today that they are expecting a baby. Just in time for him to take a crack at running for governor?
** SCHWARZENEGGER SAYS: KEEP PUSHING ON BUDGET COMPROMISE.BOXER CHIMES IN. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger held a hastily called Capitol press conference at 12:45 PM in which he said he will keep pushing for the one additional needed Republican vote in the state Senate to pass the budget compromise.
He said that, regardless of the fact that the far right instituted a coup very late last night deposing state Senator Minority Leader Davie Cogdill, he will not re-open negotiations on the fundamentals of the budget. He is, of course, open for adjustments needed to secure the final needed vote, either from Abel Maldonado or Dave Cox, or both.
Schwarzenegger praised Cogdill repeatedly for showing the character to make needed compromises for the good of the state, and said he is certain he remains on board.
Schwarzenegger has been talking with Maldonado and Cox throughout, but neither has yet finally committed to the budget compromise, for which the portion pertaining to tax hikes is the sticking point for doctrinaire conservatives.
Notably, however, Cox abstained last night when the bill was brought up for a test vote. (Maldonado voted no, but he’s already signaled he will vote for it if he gets what he wants. When he’s sure what that is, naturally.) And both men opposed the ouster of Cogdill as minority caucus leader.
As for the idea on the far right that the budget can be balanced without any tax increases?
“If you think you can do this budget without any increase in revenues,” Schwarzenegger declared, “then you have a big math problem. Anyone that runs around and says this can be done without raising taxes, I think has not really looked at it carefully to understand this budget, or has a math problem and has to go back and take Math 101.”
As I noted in my new column, Schwarzenegger will not be at this weekend’s California Republican Party convention.
In other action, US Senator Barbara Boxer was in and around the Capitol today, appearing at a scheduled Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) breakfast and seminar on the the impact of the Obama economic recovery program on California. She later appeared at a press conference with Assembly Speaker Karen Bass and Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, declaring that it’s time for “the minority to stop holding California hostage.”
** NEW POLL: OBAMA AND TERRORISM. The new Pew Research poll of American voters shows decidedly positive ratings for his policies on terrorism, along with the now familiar divisions in the electorate.
When I say this is a center/left country, I don’t mean it’s a left/liberal country. There are reasons why 24 and Jack Bauer have been a hit throughout this decade.
Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the threat of terrorism by more than two-to-one (50% approve vs. 21% disapprove), while 29% offer no opinion. Yet opinion is much more closely divided over Obama’s decision to close the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay in the next year. Fewer than half (46%) approve of the decision while 39% disapprove.
There are wide partisan differences over Obama’s Guantanamo policy, as there were with many of the major anti-terrorism policies of the Bush administration. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (64%) support the president’s decision to close Guantanamo, while 69% of Republicans oppose this decision.
By a wide margin (59% to 25%), the public says that his administration’s policies will make the chance of another major terrorist attack on the United States less likely rather than more likely. However, while majorities of Democrats (76%) and independents (62%) say that the Obama administration’s policies will make another terrorist attack less likely, just 29% of Republicans agree. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) say Obama’s policies will make another attack more likely.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted February 4-8 among 1,303 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds little change in the public’s long-term attitudes regarding a number of anti-terrorism policies. The public is divided on the issue of government surveillance of suspected terrorists; 50% say that it is generally right for the government to monitor telephone and email communications of suspected terrorists without court permission, while 45% say this is generally wrong. Opinions about this issue have changed little in the past three years.
Similarly, views have remained stable about whether the use of torture is justified in order to gain important information from suspected terrorists. More than four-in-ten say such tactics are often (16%) or sometimes (28%) justified; a majority says torture is rarely (20%) or never (31%) justified. Public attitudes regarding the use of torture against suspected terrorists have been largely unchanged since 2004.
There are continuing partisan differences over both warrantless wiretaps and torture of suspected terrorists. By greater than three-to-one (74% to 23%), Republicans say it is generally right for the government to monitor the communications of suspected terrorists without prior court permission. By contrast, a majority of independents (56%) view this policy as generally wrong, as do half of Democrats.
Opinions about the use of torture against suspected terrorists also differ widely by party, as has been the case over the past four years. While 43% of Democrats say torture is never justified, 15% of Republicans and 30% of independents hold that view.
Republicans and Democrats also disagree about whether the government’s anti-terror policies generally do not go far enough in adequately protecting the country, or go too far in restricting civil liberties. As was the case a year ago, a plurality (42%) says that anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to protect the country, while 36% say they have gone too far in restricting civil liberties. Nearly six-in-ten Republicans (59%) say anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to protect the country, compared with 38% of independents and the same percentage of Democrats.
** CALIFORNIA: THE FAR RIGHT’S RITUAL DANCE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF.Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again. California governance is poised on the edge of a cliff, for the sixth day in a row one Republican vote shy of passing a budgetary mix of spending cuts, tax increases, borrowing, and various reforms, real and otherwise, to plug the state’s $41-plus billion gap over 18 months. Meanwhile, an increasingly conservative Republican Party in this state Barack Obama carried by 24 points dances about in a ritual purification ceremony, promoting non-existent budget solutions and launching coups against conservative party leaders who prove too pragmatic for the true believers.
Before getting to the unintentionally fascinating Republican politics, a word about the state budget. California has had a chronic budget problem dating back to the relatively short-lived dot-com boom, when it took on unsustainable spending programs and tax cuts, with both parties taking part in the party. Then Governor Gray Davis ended up going along, though he had told me he wouldn’t. The pressure from his own party was very strong.
When Arnold Schwarzenegger was swept into office in the 2003 recall, prompted mainly by Davis’s handling of the state’s electric power crisis early in the decade, the former action superstar promptly cut the car tax, to massive public approval. (Davis made two mistakes, incidentally, in the electric power crisis, which saw brief blackouts and skyrocketing rates in a partially deregulated system. First, in not immediately moving to long-term power contracts as the crisis began — he and his advisors shortsightedly didn’t want even a small increase in electric rates — and, later, in not moving very aggressively against merchant power generators manipulating the system.)
This combination of spending increases and tax cuts created a structural budget deficit, routinely papered over with accounting legerdemain and borrowing. The state made some progress, but everything went decidedly south with the advent of what is now the global economic crisis. Unlike the federal government, which can print money and borrow from China, as it did for eight years under George W. Bush, California has to balance its budget every year, or at least do a fairly convincing job of faking it. And unlike the federal government — and all but two other, much smaller states — California has the near unique requirement of a two-thirds vote of both houses of the Legislature to pass a budget or increase a tax. But not to cut a tax.
Enter the Republicans, who are getting more and more conservative as their ranks shrink. …
President Barack Obama has ordered 17,000 more US troops to Afghanistan.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama is in John McCain’s home state of Arizona today. He has his daily intelligence/national security briefing in Phoenix, then goes over to Mesa to unveil his plan to deal with the housing crisis.
The Obama housing crisis event will be at 9:15 AM Pacific, and will be roadblocked on all cable news nets. The plan apparently is to use at least $50 billion from the second half of the already approved Wall Street bailout to help troubled homeowners avoid foreclosures. And also keep those loans as assets rather than liabilities for the financial institutions involved.
Mesa is in the Phoenix metropolitan area, and metro Phoenix is one of the hardest-hit areas of the country with regard to the housing crisis.
Arizona, of course, is now a swing state in presidential politics. McCain had difficulty holding on to his home state against Obama, and he won’t be running again for president.
Vice President Joe Biden, who joined Obama yesterday in Denver for the signing of the $787 billion economic recovery bill, is back in Washington today. He has a private session with the current Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, as part of the Obama Administration’s assessment of which timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq should be adopted.
The administration is getting some blowback on yesterday’s decision to send 17,000 more US troops to Afghanistan. While the public supports the US combat effort there, the decision to send more troops is supported by only about 34%. (With about that many suppporting current troop levels.) The effort is not well understood, and Obama chose to announce the decision – one of the most important of his presidency – in a written statement. (Which you see below.)
In addition, the move to mount a military surge in Afghanistan comes in the midst, not at the end, of a strategic review of US options in Afghanistan. While it’s likely that Obama will pull back from the Bush/Cheney nation-building option – which Bush, ironically, campaigned against when he was first elected in 2000 – it’s not at all clear, as I’ve pointed out in columns, what the strategy is.
Russia has shelved, for now at least, plans to provide Iran with a new state of the art air defense system.
But Obama got some more good news with regard to Russia and Iran. Moscow has decided to shelve, at least for now, plans to provide Iran with perhaps the most advanced air defense system in the world. Obama wants Russia to pressure Iran on its probably nuclear weapons program and to help in Afghanistan. Russia’s already said it will help in Afghanistan. Of course, there are things it wants, too.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Yes, it is Groundhog Day. Again.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private talks in and around the Capitol on California’s chronic budget crisis. He is trying, along with legislative leaders, to lock down a budget deal. It’s tantalizingly close.
They are one Republican vote shy in the Senate. Two are on board but a third is needed as the Democrats are one down after the election of Mark Ridley Thomas last November to the LA County Board of Supervisors. Perhaps an irony for labor, which spent millions to secure the seat for Thomas, but could use his vote in the Senate now. It’s a staunchly Democratic seat, but the special election is still a ways off. Central Coast Senator Abel Maldonado and suburban Sacramento Senator Dave Cox are dealing to become that needed third Republican vote.
Meanwhile, the state Senate Republicans have a new leader. The very conservative Dave Cogdill, who replaced the conservative Dick Ackerman just last year, was himself replaced in the middle of the night by the extremely conservative Dennis Hollingsworth.
Why? Because Cogdill is for tax increases to balance the budget. What is Hollingsworth’s alternative? He told a reporter late last night that he may have to think about it for a few days.
Hollingsworth, one of the formal ballot proponents of the anti-gay marriage Prop 8, majored in dairy science while attending Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. He was Riverside County regional director for the Farm Bureau prior to his election to the Legislature. His district office is in the retirement community of Murrieta.
He was backed by 11 members of the 15 member Senate Republican caucus, including himself. Four Republicans opposed his ascension: Maldonado, Cox, Roy Ashburn, and Cogdill.
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $112 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
President Barack Obama signed the massive economic recovery act today in Denver, Colorado.
** QUICK HITS. Still no action on the chronic California budget crisis. The compromise package of program cuts, tax hikes, and budget reforms and various inducements remains one Republican vote in the state Senate shy. Abel Maldonado and Dave Cox are in play to be that decisive vote. … California looks set to get $80 billion from the Obama economic recovery package. But with the state budget still stalled, the state issued shutdown orders today on infrastructure projects all around California. … General Motors this afternoon announced that it needs $30 billion more from the federal government or it’s going out of business. … The Obama Administration is sending more troops to Afghanistan. But it won’t complete its strategic review until early spring. …
** OBAMA STATEMENT ON AFGHAN SURGE.There is no more solemn duty as President than the decision to deploy our armed forces into harm’s way. I do it today mindful that the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan demands urgent attention and swift action. The Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan, and al Qaeda supports the insurgency and threatens America from its safe-haven along the Pakistani border.
To meet urgent security needs, I approved a request from Secretary Gates to deploy a Marine Expeditionary Brigade later this spring and an Army Stryker Brigade and the enabling forces necessary to support them later this summer. This increase has been requested by General McKiernan and supported by Secretary Gates, the Joint Chiefs and the Commander of Central Command. General McKiernan’s request for these troops is months old, and the fact that we are going to responsibly drawdown our forces in Iraq allows us the flexibility to increase our presence in Afghanistan.
This reinforcement will contribute to the security of the Afghan people and to stability in Afghanistan. I recognize the extraordinary strain that this deployment places on our troops and military families. I honor their service, and will give them the support they need.
This increase is necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires. That is why I ordered a review of our policy upon taking office, so we have a comprehensive strategy and the necessary resources to meet clear and achievable objectives in Afghanistan and the region. This troop increase does not pre-determine the outcome of that strategic review. Instead, it will further enable our team to put together a comprehensive strategy that will employ all elements of our national power to fulfill achievable goals in Afghanistan. As we develop our new strategic goals, we will do so in concert with our friends and allies as together we seek the resources necessary to succeed.
** OBAMA OKAYS AFGHAN SURGE. As expected, President Barack Obama has okayed a surge of troops in troubled Afghanistan. From the AP: Defense and congressional officials say President Barack Obama has approved an increase in U.S. forces for the flagging war in Afghanistan. The Obama administration is expected to announce on Tuesday or Wednesday that it will send one additional Army brigade and an unknown number of Marines to Afghanistan this spring. One official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the total is about 17,000 troops.
That would be the first installment on a larger influx of U.S. forces that have been widely expected this year. It would get a few thousand troops in place in time for the increase in fighting that usually comes with warmer weather and ahead of national elections this summer.
What that story does not say is that the Afghan surge will coincide with an Iraq drawdown. Many if not most of the troops heading to Afghanistan were orginally ticketed for Iraq.
** WHITMAN: ROMNEY AND MCCAIN PROMPTED ME TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA. From GOP gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman’s “vision” speech entitled “A New California,” delivered today at the Tech Museum in San Jose: Now, my interest in running for governor was sparked most by two people – Mitt Romney and John McCain. Mitt was my boss at Bain & Company in the early 1980s. He’s a mentor and a friend and I was thrilled when he asked me to help him run for President.
After Mitt left the race, Senator McCain approached me to help with his campaign. I knew Senator McCain from years of fighting alongside him to stop Internet taxes.
I was deeply moved by my experiences with Mitt and John. Both men love America. And regardless of your politics, you have to admire their sacrifices, patriotism and love of country. Mitt and John inspired me to think beyond my business career. Watching them these past few years, I began to actively consider a new career in public service, and how I might contribute to California and its future.
** RECOVERY.GOV GOES LIVE. The Obama Administration just launched recovery.gov, a new web site which will supposedly delineate where the $787 billion in economic recovery funds is going and give the public input on how specific projects are going.
It starts out with an overall breakdown of the plan by general spending category. It makes a bold promise: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will be carried out with full transparency and accountability — and Recovery.gov is the centerpiece of that effort. In a short video, President Obama describes the site and talks about how you’ll be able to track the Recovery Act’s progress every step of the way.
** CALIFORNIA 2010. Republican gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman gives what’s billed as a major “vision” address today at the Tech Museum in San Jose. Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, a Democratic hopeful, makes a stop on his listening tour at Cal State Northridge in LA. And San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, another Democratic hopeful, has another town hall meeting. This one is tonight in Santa Cruz.
I went to one of Newsom’s town halls last week, incidentally, and filmed the event. I’ll have more to say about it later.
** OBAMA TODAY. President Barack Obama does an interview with Canadian television – his first foreign trip as president will be to Canada on Thursday – and heads to Denver, Colorado to sign the big economic recovery bill.
At 11:15 AM Pacific he tours the solar panel installation at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science. Then at 11:40 AM Pacific he signs the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and makes remarks. The event will be roadblocked on all cable news nets.
The $787 billion bill made its way swiftly through the House and Senate, making Obama’s deadline of having it on his desk by Presidents Day. While it’s arguably the largest such bill ever passed, some economists worry that it may actually be too small.
Obama goes to Phoenix, Arizona tomorrow to unveil his fix for the housing crisis.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned North Korea against a planned long-range missile test.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Tokyo on her Asian tour of China, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. She urged North Korea not to pursue any more long-range missile tests.
North Korea, which has throttled back on its nuclear weapons program, has issued a series of bizarre threats to South Korea over the last month and is continuing its missile testing program, with a big launch supposedly coming up. The North Koreans are major purveyors of missile technology around the world. It’s practically the Hermit State’s only major export item.
Dan Aykroyd returned to Saturday Night Live to play House Minority Leader John Boehner in an anti-Obama strategy session.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private talks in and around the Capitol on California’s chronic budget crisis. He is trying, along with legislative leaders, to lock down a budget deal. If the Legislature doesn’t act today, Schwarzenegger is going to start laying off state workers and shut down $3.8 billion in infrastructure projects.
They are one Republican vote shy in the Senate. Two are on board but a third is needed as the Democrats are one down after the election of Mark Ridley Thomas last November to the LA County Board of Supervisors. It’s a staunchly Democratic seat, but the special election is still a ways off. Central Coast Senator Abel Maldonado is dealing to become that needed third Republican vote.
What does he want? All kinds of reform-sounding stuff. What will he settle for? That’s the question.
He’s been a Schwarzenegger ally in the past, reaching a parting of the ways when the governor didn’t campaign for him in a losing 2006 Republican primary campaign for state controller.
Schwarzenegger emerges again from his cone of silence this morning when he and First Lady Maria Shriver honor airline pilot Chesley Sullenberger, whose quick thinking and steady nerve enabled him to pilot US Airways Flight 1549 to an emergency water landing in New York City’s Hudson River on January 15, 2009. Sullenberger is a San Francisco Bay Area resident.
** AFGHANISTAN: RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE. In a very positive sign for the US effort in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that transit of US and NATO non-military supplies through Russia to troops in Afghanistan will begin within days.
Ironically, this comes on the 20th anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul. And the man who commanded those Soviet forces, retired Lieutenant General Boris Gromov, warned the US today that a military surge in Afghanistan will not solve its problems there.
With our putative ally Pakistan increasingly unstable and jihadists carrying out many successful attacks on supply lines and convoys there — they seem to blow up the route over the legendary Khyber Pass every other week — alternative means of supply are increasingly necessary to sustain the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan.
That means, one way or another, Moscow, which can provide transit through its own territory and guarantee transit through Central Asian nations formerly part of the Soviet Union. There’s been a major dance underway for weeks on this, unreported by the conventional media, naturally. …
** “POST-PARTISANSHIP”: HOW IT WORKS, HOW IT DOESN’T.Back in 2007, when he was still an underdog candidate for president jousting with John Edwards (remember him?), Barack Obama said that he liked the “post-partisan” posturings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the idea that people should set aside their partisan differences to solve big issues. Now, as president, he’s adopted much the same tack, to the dismay of hyper-partisans of all stripes.
They ought to be dismayed, because it works. To a point.
** OBAMA: RIDING WITH HISTORY. (NOTE: As Barack Obama was inaugurated as the 44th president of the United States, this column was the featured column on the top of the front page of the Huffington Post.) … From my January 19th Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM AL JAZEERA. With the US entangled in two wars in the region, it’s valuable to keep up with news and perspectives from the leading Middle Eastern-based TV news network. Based in the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, Al Jazeera is very influential and more than a bit controversial.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of $112 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US and global economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surrounding a supposed attack on Iran.
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