January 15th, 2009

Non-Random Notes


President-elect Barack Obama says everyone can take part in his inauguration, now just five days away.

**  OBAMA WINS ON TARP. The US Senate has just approved disbursement of the second tranche of $350 billion from the Wall Street bailout enacted last fall. Obama’s economic team promised transparency this time around, and more funds for relief of people as distinguished from financial institutions. The vote was 52 to 42.

Congress laid the foundation for President-elect Barack Obama’s economic recovery plan on Thursday with remarkable speed, clearing the way for a new infusion of bailout cash for the financial industry while majority Democrat proposed spending increases and tax cuts totaling a whopping $825 billion.
Two days after Obama personally lobbied for release of $350 billion in bailout funds, the Senate narrowly turned aside a bid to block the money.

**  NEW POLL: BIG SUPPORT F0R ECONOMIC REVIVAL PROGRAM, BIGGER SUPPORT FOR OBAMA. With five days until his inauguration, the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows big support for President-elect Barack Obama and his agenda.

Despite some bumps in the road this month for Obama’s transition, most are sloughing them off. 71% approve of Obama’s performance in the presidential transition. Those who view him positively outnumber those who view him negatively by a whopping 66% to 14%. In contrast, outgoing President Bush has only a 27% approval rating.

Intriguingly, individual elements of Obama’s economic revival agenda are much more popular than the overall package.

Obama’s stimulus package, which his team estimates will cost some $775 billion, includes: Distributing $500 in tax credits to individuals (and $1,000 to families)
Providing money for shovel-ready construction projects
Increasing production of renewable energy
Expanding unemployment benefits and government-assisted health insurance.
According to the poll, 43 percent believe the stimulus is a good idea, compared to 27 percent who think it’s a bad one, and 24 percent who don’t have an opinion.

Eighty-nine percent support the creation of new jobs through increased production of renewable energy (as well as making public buildings and schools more energy efficient). And 85 percent think it’s a good idea to generate jobs through the repair and construction of roads and bridges.

In addition, 67 percent approve of the the tax cuts in the stimulus plan, and 65 percent agree with the expansion of unemployment insurance and government-assisted health insurance.

This support isn’t too surprising given that nearly three-fourths of Americans believe that the current economic recession will continue for at least another year — and perhaps even longer.

By comparison, 4 percent believe that the recession is almost over or will be in the next six months.

So why the concern about the overall package? The overall numbers are daunting, especially in light of the nation’s already massive deficit.

**  GEORGE WILL V. JERRY BROWN. Conservative columnist George Will takes on former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown today for his move to have California’s Prop 8 banning same-sex marriage declared unconstitutional.

Will claims that Brown’s move would enable the courts to do whatever they want.

Brown’s audacious argument is a viscous soup of natural-law and natural-rights philosophizing, utterly untethered from case law. It is designed to effect a constitutional revolution by establishing an unchallengeable judicial hegemony.

Brown, who, incidentally, easily leads his potential rivals San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi in fundraising for a possible 2010 gubernatorial race, despite not being able to take the larger checks allowed those who have launched gubernatorial campaign committees, sees it differently, deriving his opinion from what he sees as a fundamental civil right.

I wonder what Will would say about an initiative to continue racial segregation, as undoubtedly would pass in the South of a few decades past. That used to be constitutional.

**  WOODWARD’S 10 KEY TAKEAWAYS ABOUT THE PRESIDENCY IN THE WAKE OF GEORGE W. BUSH. Writing for the Sunday Washington Post, Bob Woodward –  who has written four books centering on the Bush Presidency, which have ranged from very positive to quite negative  –  has 10 key takeaways for the new administration from what he now clearly sees as the cautionary tale of the outgoing president.

1. Presidents set the tone. Don’t be passive or tolerate virulent divisions.

2. The president must insist that everyone speak out loud in front of the others, even — or especially — when there are vehement disagreements.

3. A president must do the homework to master the fundamental ideas and concepts behind his policies.

4. Presidents need to draw people out and make sure bad news makes it to the Oval Office.

5. Presidents need to foster a culture of skepticism and doubt.

6. Presidents get contradictory data, and they need a rigorous way to sort it out.

7. Presidents must tell the hard truth to the public, even if that means delivering very bad news.

8. Righteous motives are not enough for effective policy.

9. Presidents must insist on strategic thinking.

10. The president should embrace transparency. Some version of the behind-the-scenes story of what happened in his White House will always make it out to the public — and everyone will be better off if that version is as accurate as possible.

**  SCHWARZENEGGER’S STATE OF THE STATE  –  LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING.

Here are excerpts from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s State of the State address.

The speech will be webcast live at 10 AM at www.gov.ca.gov.

I will not give the traditional State of the State address today, because the reality is that our state is incapacitated until we resolve the budget crisis. The truth is that California is in a state of emergency. Addressing this emergency is the first and greatest thing we must do for the people. The 42 billion dollar deficit is a rock upon our chest and we cannot breathe until we get it off.

It doesn’t make any sense to talk about education, infrastructure, water, health care reform and all these things when we have this huge budget deficit. I will talk about my vision for all of these things… and more… as soon as we get the budget done.

The legislature is currently in the midst of serious and good faith negotiations to resolve the crisis, negotiations that are being conducted in the knowledge we have no alternative but to find agreement.  …

We meet in times of great hope for our nation. Although we hear the drumbeat of news about bailouts, bankruptcies and Ponzi schemes, the nation with great anticipation is also awaiting the inauguration of a new president. Our nation should be proud of what President-elect Obama’s election says to the world about American openness and renewal.

This nation rightfully feels the hope of change. Californians, of course, desire change here in their own state as well. Yet they have doubts if that is possible.  …

People are asking if California is governable. They wonder about the need for a constitutional convention. They don’t understand how we could have let political dysfunction paralyze our state for so long. … It is not that California is ungovernable. It’s that for too long we have been split by ideology.

One of the reasonable expectations the public has of government is that it will produce a sound and balanced budget. That is what the legislative leaders are struggling to do right now. There is no course left open to us but this: to work together, to sacrifice together, to think of the common good – not our individual good.  …

In December, we even had to suspend funding that affects 2,000 infrastructure projects that were already underway. So, now, the bulldozers are silent. The nail guns are still. The cement trucks are parked. This disruption has stopped work on levees, schools, roads, everything. It has thrown thousands and thousands of people out of work at a time when our unemployment rate is rising.

How could we let something like that happen? I know that everyone in this room wants to hear again the sound of construction. No one wants unemployment checks replacing paychecks.  …

When a budget agreement is reached, when some of the raw emotions have passed, I will send to the Legislature the package of legislative goals and proposals that a governor traditionally sends. These proposals are sitting on my desk. … But, our first order of business is to solve the budget crisis.  …

As you know, in the last 20 years of budgeting, only four budgets have been on time. … We should make a commitment that legislators – and the governor, too – lose per diem expenses and our paychecks for every day the budget goes past the constitutional deadline of June 15th.  … I mean, if you call a taxi and the taxi doesn’t come, you don’t pay the driver. If the people’s work is not getting done, the people’s representatives should not get paid either. That is common sense in the real world.  …

We have the best trained, the most selfless, the toughest firefighters in the nation. Thirteen of whom lost their lives. They gave their lives for this state. Ladies and gentlemen, the courageous examples of those firefighters should not be lost on us.

In our own way, we, too, must show courage in serving the public. Ladies and gentlemen, let this be a year of political courage.  …  Let us resolve the budget crisis, so that we can get on with the people’s work.

**  OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama is in Washington preparing for his inauguration on January 20th. Vice President-elect Joe Biden and Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton  –  who won easy confirmation from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on a 16-1 vote (the only dissent came from Louisiana Republican David Vitter, recently embroiled in a prostitution scandal)  –  give their Senate farewell addresses today.

President George W. Bush gives his farewell address tonight at 5 PM Pacific, which will apparently be roadblocked on all cable and broadcast news nets. Incidentally, Madame Tussauds museums around the world today replaced their waxen effigies of Bush with those of Barack Obama.

The Obamas move from the Hay Adams Hotel, where they’ve been since the beginning of the month, to Blair House tonight, the traditional temporary home for incoming presidents and their families. They weren’t at Blair House earlier because Bush had former Australian Prime Minister John Howard staying there in advance of his receiving the Medal of Freedom, which he also awarded to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who found accommodations elsewhere.

Obama is waiting for the Senate to vote to release the second $350 billion tranche of the original Wall Street bailout, this time with oversight, safeguards, and money to provide direct relief to citizens.

Meanwhile, geopolitical crises continue. Israel shelled the United Nations headquarters today in Gaza, claiming that machine gun fire had come from the compound, which the UN describes as nonsense. Israel’s prime minister apologized for the incident. Russian natural gas still isn’t getting through Ukraine to much of Europe. More Pakistani troops are on the border with India in the wake of the still unresolved Mumbai crisis. And US forces are looking for alternate supply routes to Afghanistan with the Pakistani regional capital of Peshawar becoming increasingly unstable.


Apple co-founder and CEO Steve Jobs is taking a six-month medical leave from the Silicon Valley company.

**  FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers his State of the State address this morning in the Capitol, then holds more private talks on the budget crisis.

His state of the state address will focus only on California’s chronic budget crisis, rather than address a broader agenda for the state. And earlier plans to take the state of the state on the road, beginning in Sacramento, then delivering it anew in Fresno and Los Angeles, have been scrapped.

**  ANOTHER DAY: 24 AND THE AGE OF OBAMA. One of the signature TV series of the Bush/Cheney years is back. What relevance, if any, does it have in the new age of Obama?  … From my new column.

**  CIA: THE PANETTA PICK AND THE FEINSTEIN FACTOR. President-elect Barack Obama named his top intelligence leadership team on Friday. And, as I expected, new Senate Intelligence Committee chair Dianne Feinstein rather quickly backed down from her opposition to Leon Panetta and championing of a CIA insider for the post, of only a few days ago. The whole exercise was very instructive in old and new political dynamics.From my Monday column.

**  CIA: PARSING THE PANETTA PICK. From my January 6th column.

**  OBAMA: VACATION’S END. …  From my January 2nd Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $35 to $36 per barrel range.

The drop of $112 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

75 Responses to “Non-Random Notes”

  1. Bill Bradley says:

    The adulation can be a bit much.

    ># Len Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 9:51 am edit

    He is a magical figure. Heheh.

    Capitol Boy Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 9:13 am
    That speech shows why Barack is so special. He wants to include.

  2. Bill Bradley says:

    “We will sell no wine before its time.”

    Who said that?

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 9:30 am edit

    “People are asking if California is governable. They wonder about the need for a constitutional convention. They don’t understand how we could have let political dysfunction paralyze our state for so long. … It is not that California is ungovernable. It’s that for too long we have been split by ideology. …”

    Again with the foreshadowing? Jesus, just spit it out man!

  3. Bill Bradley says:

    We don’t really know what’s going on with Jobs’s health. He was quite unforthcoming before.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 9:00 am edit

    This new report sounds more hopeful.

  4. Bill Bradley says:

    That’s amazing. They’ve just been running amok on Wall Street and K Street.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 2:13 pm edit

    “I didn’t know that. Where did you see that?”

    WaPo article today:

    “Meanwhile, Bank of America was on the verge of receiving billions more in federal aid to help it absorb troubled investment bank Merrill Lynch, whose losses had outpaced expectations, according to people familiar with the matter. That money would come on top of the $25 billion the government has already invested in Bank of America, including $10 billion specifically in connection with the Merrill Lynch deal.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/14/AR2009011404198.html?nav=rss_email%2Fcomponents

    The outstanding stock values of GM and Ford I got from Yahoo! Finance I think.

  5. Brasky says:

    “We will sell no wine before its time.”

    Same man who directed and starred in what’s considered one of the greatest movies of all time.

    Personally, I find that flick to be wildly overrated as a compelling story. As a learning tools on how to make a movie, it’s pretty damn cool.

  6. Brasky says:

    “That’s amazing. They’ve just been running amok on Wall Street and K Street.”

    Yeah, as both a democrat and former business person, it pisses me off.

    It would be like giving the Daily News money to buy the LA Times — even if the LADN shuts the Times down, they’ll make money on the deal.

    Amazing.

  7. Wilbur says:

    ““We will sell no wine before its time.”

    Orson Welles, for some swill wine bottler (Gallo?)

  8. Sacramento Solon says:

    We did the same fracking drill on the wine quote two years ago! Would someone please hit the refresh button! :-)

    The winery was Paul Masson.

    Now, can I go take my nap???

  9. Dana says:

    And in the process destroying any last credibility of the Republicans for leading the economy…

    >Bill Bradley Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
    That’s amazing. They’ve just been running amok on Wall Street and K Street.

  10. Dana says:

    Brasky, I agree Kane is rather cold but does get at some core American character traits. I think Welles did some other great movies that don’t always get their due. Magnificent Ambersons. The Trial with Anthony Perkins. F for Fake. MacBeth and Othello were done cheap but pretty good. Chimes at Midnight. While I was a film student at USC he came for a screening of The Trial and answered questions afterward. It was quite an experience. He savaged Reagan, our then new President.

  11. Brasky says:

    Great story dana — thanks.

    Yeah – Kane is cold, but all the elements are there.

  12. Chris M says:

    Well said, although the “Rosebud” bit still grabs me a little.

    >Brasky Says:

    Personally, I find [Citizen Kane] to be wildly overrated as a compelling story. As a learning tools on how to make a movie, it’s pretty damn cool.

  13. Dana says:

    Ouc. Forgot Touch of Evil. Kind of florid weird but some great stuff.

  14. Chris M says:

    H-m-m-m…The Court or the People? I once would have chosen the latter. Now…?

    >Will claims that Brown’s move would enable the courts to do whatever they want.

  15. Brasky says:

    Touch of Evil!

    good catch

  16. Jonas Blane says:

    What new video today?

  17. Bill Bradley says:

    Obama, Bush, Obama.

  18. Bill Bradley says:

    Don’t forget Charlton Heston in that movie.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 6:15 pm edit

    Touch of Evil!

    good catch

  19. Bill Bradley says:

    I like Citizen Kane. I think it’s a great movie. It’s supposed to be cold, it’s about a cold guy.

    ># Chris M Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 3:39 pm edit

    Well said, although the “Rosebud” bit still grabs me a little.

    >Brasky Says:

    Personally, I find [Citizen Kane] to be wildly overrated as a compelling story. As a learning tools on how to make a movie, it’s pretty damn cool.

  20. Bill Bradley says:

    Sometime I’ll talk about a movie that Orson Welles and Warren Beatty nearly did together.

    ># Dana Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 3:36 pm edit

    Brasky, I agree Kane is rather cold but does get at some core American character traits. I think Welles did some other great movies that don’t always get their due. Magnificent Ambersons. The Trial with Anthony Perkins. F for Fake. MacBeth and Othello were done cheap but pretty good. Chimes at Midnight. While I was a film student at USC he came for a screening of The Trial and answered questions afterward. It was quite an experience. He savaged Reagan, our then new President.

  21. Bill Bradley says:

    No.

    ># Sacramento Solon Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 2:49 pm edit

    We did the same fracking drill on the wine quote two years ago! Would someone please hit the refresh button! :-)

    The winery was Paul Masson.

    Now, can I go take my nap???

  22. Bill Bradley says:

    Yes, it was Robin Masters himself …

    ># Wilbur Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 2:39 pm edit

    ““We will sell no wine before its time.”

    Orson Welles, for some swill wine bottler (Gallo?)

  23. Bill Bradley says:

    Indeed.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 15th, 2009 at 2:22 pm edit

    “That’s amazing. They’ve just been running amok on Wall Street and K Street.”

    Yeah, as both a democrat and former business person, it pisses me off.

    It would be like giving the Daily News money to buy the LA Times — even if the LADN shuts the Times down, they’ll make money on the deal.

    Amazing.

  24. Sacramento Solon says:

    No…what…no nap or Paul Masson?

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