President-elect Barack Obama unveiled his top intelligence leaders – CIA Director-designate Leon Panetta and Director of National Intelligence-designate Admiral Dennis Blair – and discussed the economic crisis in this Friday press conference in Washington.
** THE ABSENT VOTER TREND CONTINUES. George Mason University’s voting project reports that 30% of US voters cast their ballots before the November election or by absentee ballot. That’s up sharply from 20% in 2004
In California, the figure was a whopping 45%. And in Florida, 52%.
** BUSH DELIVERS FAREWELL ADDRESS ON THURSDAY. President George W. Bush delivers a farewell address to the nation on Thursday night in the East Room of the White House. Not every president does this. I don’t think this is a very good idea on his part. It’s his last scheduled public event before Barack Obama’s inauguration day.
** CIA: THE PANETTA PICK AND THE FEINSTEIN FACTOR. President-elect Barack Obama named his top intelligence leadership team on Friday. And, as I expected, new Senate Intelligence Committee chair Dianne Feinstein rather quickly backed down from her opposition to Leon Panetta and championing of a CIA insider for the post, of only a few days ago. The whole exercise was very instructive in old and new political dynamics. … From my new column.
** BIG LIVE AUDIENCE EXPECTED FOR OBAMA INAUGURAL FESTIVITIES. According to the latest Republican Rasmussen poll, 75% of US voters say they will watch all or part of Barack Obama’s inauguration as president and the activities surrounding it on January 20th. 28% say they will watch everything. Enthusiasm is greatest amongst younger voters and least amongst older voters.
21% say they won’t watch any of the Obama Inaugural – 25% of men but only 18% of women.
** NATURAL GAS FLOWS TO EUROPE START UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. Ukraine has backed down on amendments to its deal with Russia on natural gas pipeline shipments to and through the former Soviet republic, paving the way for those shipments to resume Tuesday morning. With an arctic front over the continent, Ukraine in arrears on its own payments and Russia seeking to force the country away from the US and NATO, Moscow seized the opportunity to precipitate a crisis reminding both it and most of Europe about how dependent they are on Russian energy.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK
An eventful week on tap in presidential politics, geopolitics, and California politics. President-elect Barack Obama finds a new commerce secretary, tweaks his economic revival program, and monitors the confirmation proceedings on his appointees and several global crises. Oh, and works on that first inaugural address business.
All the while, geopolitical crises continue to percolate.
In the Mumbai crisis, Pakistan’s army has moved one of its two divisions in the remote Islamist hotbed of Waziristan to its border with India, as India continues to be unimpressed by the Pakistani government’s actions in the wake of acknowledging a substantial Pakistani role in the terrorist siege of India’s commercial capital.
In the Gaza crisis, Israel’s army has escalated its offensive against Hamas, with both sides now refusing a UN Security Council call for ceasefire. But Israel says it is close to achieving its objectives, whatever they are, which I think is tied to the Obama inauguration on the 20th.
And in the Ukraine crisis, Russia is declinining to renew natural gas shipments through its former Soviet republic neighbor, and hence to the rest of Europe, saying that Ukraine is trying to renegotiate a deal reached before the weekend. It’s getting pretty cold in Europe. Don’t expect the current pro-US Ukrainian government to last much longer.
Vice President-elect Joe Biden is in Iraq today, meeting with the Iraqi leadership. He’s wrapping up a tour of the Middle East and South Asia, having told the Pakistani leadership earlier it’s time for more cooperation with India on Mumbai. He’ll meet with Obama and the top national security and intelligence leadership team this week to discuss what he’s found.
In California politics, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders continue trying to find a solution of sorts to California’s chronic budget crisis. Schwarzenegger gives his state of the state address on Thursday, which I doubt he intends to be solely on the budget.
Speaking of which, there are some signs that some Republicans are getting ready to go along with tax increases. They haven’t presented a budget alternative which does the job without them. Schwarzenegger is pushing his latest combination of tax increases, program cuts, and borrowing, having rejected the Democratic alternative which refashions tax hikes as fee hikes to get around California’s unusual two-thirds legislative vote requirement. The legislative analyst has called both Schwarzenegger’s and the Democratic plan risky – Schwarzenegger because of a few assumptions, the Democrats because of the legal issue around the tax-as-fee gambit.
President George W. Bush gave what may be his final press conference as president early this morning in Washington, admitting mistakes on the economy and geopolitics in a sometimes defiant performance.
** OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama continues work on his transition in Washington. He meets with Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton, whose confirmation hearing is tomorrow, after refusing something of a demand from the New York Times that he provide the newspaper with monthly reports on former President Bill Clinton’s activities.
Obama also meets with Mexican President Felipe Calderon. It’s traditional that a new American president hold his first foreign head of state meeting with the president of Mexico. They actually have a great deal to talk about, as Mexico’s stability is in increasing question with the increasingly bold advent of powerful drug cartels corrupting and assassinating the country’s security services with apparent impunity.
Vice President-elect Joe Biden is on the last leg of his tour of the Middle East and South Asia, meeting with Pakistani President Jalal Talabani today in Baghdad. Biden has been getting the lay of the land out there in his guise as outgoing Senate Foreign Relations Committe chairman. John Kerry takes over tomorrow to preside over Hillary Clinton’s confirmation hearing.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol today around his state of the state address on January 15th and California’s chronic budget crisis.
** CIA: PARSING THE PANETTA PICK. … From my Monday column.
** OBAMA: VACATION’S END. … From my January 2nd Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $37 to $38 per barrel range, down three dollars since its Friday close on fresh signs of weak demand.
The drop of $110 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
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| Comments (51) |
That was a good Obama press conference. I like the balance between Panetta and Blair.
Bush screwed up so bad. Just go.
He bores me now.
I want to know more about the early Feinstein opposition to Panetta. Bill, don’t you have another column on that ?
Bush couldn’t leave a bigger mess behind for Obama if he’d actually tried to.
“Schwarzenegger is pushing his latest combination of tax increases, program cuts, and borrowing,…” wow, they are still working on last year’s ‘May revise’ and probably won’t fix anything before the next one. Doesn’t this show how utterly incompetent Arnold is? He promised to bring in federal funds as a great friend of Bush; yet he has no clout within his party. We’d have a budget and be funding needed programs if Arnold hadn’t fought the ballot measure a few years back to remove the two-thirds vote requirement. He gave his big business republican cronies cover to keep the state dysfunctional, yet has gotten nothing from them. That’s a sign of failure and a reminder we shouldn’t keep electing bad actors to public office. Like Bush, Arnold has left a bigger mess for the next administration than the one he inherited.
No, Paul, we are way beyond last year’s May revise. Try to keep up.
Incidentally, the two-third vote ballot initiative was going to lose no matter what Schwarzenegger did.
You really do need to get outside your little ideological box.
Perhaps.
># Len Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:52 am edit
Bush couldn’t leave a bigger mess behind for Obama if he’d actually tried to.
Russia and Ukraine have apparently inked a deal. But, boy, has Russia ever sent a message (”If we want to, we can freeze half of Europe”). You’re right, with the West broke and overstretched, it’s hard to see how Ukraine doesn’t slide back into the Russian sphere of influence in the coming years (or months).
“In the Gaza crisis, Israel’s army has escalated its offensive against Hamas,..” No, Israel’s military has escalated its offensive against innocent civilians and children in the occupied territory it stole from the Palestinians. So far they have won the massacre contest on a scale of about 400 to 1.
It’s getting done …
># Capitol Boy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:43 am edit
I want to know more about the early Feinstein opposition to Panetta. Bill, don’t you have another column on that ?
Eight more days.
># Jonas Blane Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:41 am edit
Bush screwed up so bad. Just go.
I think they’ll be pretty good.
># Jonas Blane Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:38 am edit
That was a good Obama press conference. I like the balance between Panetta and Blair.
By far the great majority of the dead are Hamas fighters, as the UN has pointed out.
># Paul Burton Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:08 am edit
“In the Gaza crisis, Israel’s army has escalated its offensive against Hamas,..” No, Israel’s military has escalated its offensive against innocent civilians and children in the occupied territory it stole from the Palestinians. So far they have won the massacre contest on a scale of about 400 to 1.
Right, that just happened.
Funny how an energy cut-off sweeps away the defiance of Ukraine’s president.
># Chris M Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:07 am edit
Russia and Ukraine have apparently inked a deal. But, boy, has Russia ever sent a message (”If we want to, we can freeze half of Europe”). You’re right, with the West broke and overstretched, it’s hard to see how Ukraine doesn’t slide back into the Russian sphere of influence in the coming years (or months).
Is Paul Burton TRIATHLON? lol
Wake up! Reuters: “Medical officials said the Palestinian death toll in the offensive Israel began 17 days ago had risen past 900 and included at least 380 civilians. Israel says three Israeli civilians, hit by Hamas rockets, and 10 soldiers have died.”
OK the great humanitarians in the Israeli military have only achieved a 150 to one civilian death ratio. And no, the great majority are not Hamas fighters, even based on the biased pro-Israel reporting of Reuters it’s 520 to 380 (”at least”), hardly a great majority. It is sickening to see people defend massacres on either side. The Israeli military has a slick PR machine, using women now as spokespersons to present a kinder gentler image as they murder civilians in the territories they stole from the indigenous Palestinians.
“# Ann Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Is Paul Burton TRIATHLON? lol”
i haven’t read this column for a while so have no idea what TRIATHALON is but as you can see, I am one of the few, if not the only one, here who uses his real name, unlike ‘Ann’. apparently some people are afraid to stand behind their opinions and comments.
Paul, the UN says that 75% of the casualties in Gaza are Hamas fighters.
And if you want to pretend that Reuters is part of the Israeli PR machine, that’s your prerogative.
Oj, Paul Burton. Ann is my real name. Your name is the only thing real that you say. lol
BB: if reuters is objective, then the UN is wrong. 520 is not 75 percent of 900.
>>Paul, the UN says that 75% of the casualties in Gaza are Hamas fighters.
ann, lol is the only thing real that you write!
again, it is sickening to see people spin numbers and defend a nuclear armed nation funded by US taxpayers using US made fighter jets to massacre civilians in an occupied territory/prison camp that does not even have sovereignty, much less a standing army. Hamas may be a terrorist organization but Israel’s use of white phosphorous (chemical warfare) hardly puts them above being labeled terrorist. state sponsored terrorism in this case has been a successful war tactic if success equals the number of human beings murdered.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090111/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_white_phosphorus
“Human Rights Watch said Sunday that Israel’s military has fired artillery shells with the incendiary agent white phosphorus into Gaza and a doctor there said the chemical was suspected in the case of 10 burn victims who had skin peeling off their faces and bodies.” Shouldn’t we invade Israel now and capture Shimon Peres and give him the Saddam treatment since he waged chemical warfare on civilians?
Paul, the spinner here is you. You put out false information, then when called on it resort to an illusory moral higher ground.
It should be perfectly obvious I’m not happy about what’s going on in Gaza.
That, however, does not give you free rein to put out the typical misinformation.
It is, however, clearly the vast majority.
Which is the point I made.
Thanks for wasting my time.
>Paul Burton Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 11:17 am edit
BB: if reuters is objective, then the UN is wrong. 520 is not 75 percent of 900.
What was the strategy behind Hamas shooting missles at Israel? Is it to get negotiations re-started? Be the victims to play for sympathy? Mess w/Israel internal politics in the run up to elections? Mess w/Ameruican inetrnal politics as a new President is about to be sworn in?
Where is Barbara? Obviously I need a lesson in Middle East geopolitics 101.
COMMON GROUND
Two men from opposite side’s of the globe, opposite religious values, opposite interests, as opposite as two men can be from one another, but who’s thinking on matters of inter-geo-political importance, have come together on common ground.
Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX) Congressman of the (14th) District, and Al-Zawahri the (2nd) in Command of Al Qadea, Osama bin Laden’s top deputy finding common ground on many questions.
Question: Will there be “Change” coming from the Obama Administration? Answer: NO!
Question: Will Israel’s Critics and enemies see the (USI/MIC) United States of Israel, Military Industrial Complex as the side to blame for the ongoing violence in the Palestinian Territory of Gaza? Answer: YES!
Question: Should the United States review its unconditional support of the Jewish State of Israel? Answer: YES!
Question: Should the United States cut its ($1T) One-Trillion Dollar, military force, and end its military presence in Korea, Japan, (The “Evil Crescent”) of Middle Eastern and Central Asian, and Europe? Answer: YES!
Question: Should the (IRI) International Republican Institute in conjunction with the support of the United States of Israel Military Industrial Complex fund “Democracy Promotion), advisers, and equip insurgencies regimes for the hostile undermining of regimes and governments (Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan)? Answer: NO!
Question: Should the United States build a new offensive military installation on the boarder of the Russian Federation, (anti-missile defense?) in Europe? Answer: NO!
Question: Will Obama and the (USI/MIC) United States of Israel, Military Industrial Complex continue to break International Law, (UN) United Nations Charters, Treaties, Agreements, and Conventions by not closing the Guantanamo (Git-Mo), and other “Rendition” Centers around the globe? Answer: YES!
Question: Will Obama and the (USI/MIC) return to the table to discuss arms control the cornerstone of international security that is of immediate concern prior to a Thermo-Nuclear War, starting on the (“Evil Crescent”)? Answer: NO!
Question: Should the (USI/MIC), intervene in the Russian Federation, economic security interests Gazprom, and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)? Answer: NO!
So, these are just a sample of how two men from opposite side can come to Common Ground, Common Sense, Common Reasoning answers to the same questions. (”Don’t believe all this stuff about a big ‘change’, we have to fight just as hard as ever), and we had better, all this stuff about 21st December 2012 Cosmic Alignment, may end up happening, after all police, security forces, hospitals will tell they hate “Full Moons” all the “Lunatics” (Luna in Latin is Moon), come out, along with the “Werewolves”.
If you haven’t gone to (RT) Russia Today, and listened to the Ron Paul Interview, this is now the time, more than anytime to listen and learn!
Wow, that’s the sort of stuff that suggests you should get your water tested…
The Ron Paul Al Qaeda link. Okay.
I like Obama’s new intel team.
Getting back to California, is this the week we get a budget deal? Does Arnold want to give a State of the State with no budget deal? That doesn’t sound good.
Nice column on how out of it Feinstein was on the CIA and Panetta. She’s very over rated, in my book.
Bill, I know you don’t think that being wrong all the time or being nutty all the time like oh somebodies today is reason to ban.
BUT!
It seems like there’s never anything new with that story. The details change, the song remains the same.
marcos leon Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Getting back to California, is this the week we get a budget deal? Does Arnold want to give a State of the State with no budget deal? That doesn’t sound good.
Feinstein is very arrogant. I would say I would like to see her out of the Intelligence Committee chair. However, I wouldn’t want to see her run for Governor of California.
Jack Aubrey Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Nice column on how out of it Feinstein was on the CIA and Panetta. She’s very over rated, in my book.
Marcus and Marcos:
Just to keep things in perspective, if the Governor gets a budget deal, it’ll be his second deal on last year’s budget. You have to give him (and the Legislature) credit for forging new vistas in budget bungling and wishful thinking. At this rate, we could need three subsequent deals for next year’s budget to work.
Looks like Minnesota’s professional wrestler Governor is actually less incompetent than our “actor” governor (and the quotes are as charitable about his thespian skills as I can be). I’m not ready (yet) to say Bustamante would have been worse. . . but it’s now a thought I’m ready to entertain.
You never met Cruz Bustamante.
The legislative leaders are pretty dorky, you know. It’s a big drop from Burton and Fabian.
GOTV will never be the same. It’s going to have to be around the clock. This will put a premium on organization again, and banking votes.
** THE ABSENT VOTER TREND CONTINUES. George Mason University’s voting project reports that 30% of US voters cast their ballots before the November election or by absentee ballot. That’s up sharply from 20% in 2004
In California, the figure was a whopping 45%. And in Florida, 52%.
I don’t see exactly that it’s Schwarzenegger’s fault that he’s got crazy Republicans in the legislature.
Prospero Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Marcus and Marcos:
Just to keep things in perspective, if the Governor gets a budget deal, it’ll be his second deal on last year’s budget. You have to give him (and the Legislature) credit for forging new vistas in budget bungling and wishful thinking. At this rate, we could need three subsequent deals for next year’s budget to work.
Looks like Minnesota’s professional wrestler Governor is actually less incompetent than our “actor” governor (and the quotes are as charitable about his thespian skills as I can be). I’m not ready (yet) to say Bustamante would have been worse. . . but it’s now a thought I’m ready to entertain.
They’re not exactly big mutual supporters …
The Obama organizaton is the new model.
># Jack Aubrey Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:51 pm edit
GOTV will never be the same. It’s going to have to be around the clock. This will put a premium on organization again, and banking votes.
** THE ABSENT VOTER TREND CONTINUES. George Mason University’s voting project reports that 30% of US voters cast their ballots before the November election or by absentee ballot. That’s up sharply from 20% in 2004
In California, the figure was a whopping 45%. And in Florida, 52%.
Prospero, you’ve forgotten this little thing called the tanking economy. I know it’s Schwarzenegger’s fault that Prop 8 passed, that there’s a two-thirds vote requirement, that Wall Street tore down the economy, and so on …
>Jack Aubrey Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 4:54 pm edit
I don’t see exactly that it’s Schwarzenegger’s fault that he’s got crazy Republicans in the legislature.
Prospero Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Marcus and Marcos:
Just to keep things in perspective, if the Governor gets a budget deal, it’ll be his second deal on last year’s budget. You have to give him (and the Legislature) credit for forging new vistas in budget bungling and wishful thinking. At this rate, we could need three subsequent deals for next year’s budget to work.
I got Cruz to say the budget crisis was caused by the power crisis.
Doesn’t everybody understand that?
># marcos leon Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 3:34 pm edit
You never met Cruz Bustamante.
The legislative leaders are pretty dorky, you know. It’s a big drop from Burton and Fabian.
Thanks.
># Jack Aubrey Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:35 pm edit
Nice column on how out of it Feinstein was on the CIA and Panetta. She’s very over rated, in my book.
Not especially.
># marcos leon Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 2:14 pm edit
Getting back to California, is this the week we get a budget deal? Does Arnold want to give a State of the State with no budget deal? That doesn’t sound good.
A contaminated well?
># paul Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 1:19 pm edit
Wow, that’s the sort of stuff that suggests you should get your water tested…
This is too long. And remember, you hyperventilate into a bag, not a blog.
>TRIATHLON Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:33 pm edit
COMMON GROUND
You’re under the impression that Hamas is out to reach common ground with Israel?
># Dana Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 12:27 pm edit
What was the strategy behind Hamas shooting missles at Israel? Is it to get negotiations re-started? Be the victims to play for sympathy? Mess w/Israel internal politics in the run up to elections? Mess w/Ameruican inetrnal politics as a new President is about to be sworn in?
Where is Barbara? Obviously I need a lesson in Middle East geopolitics 101.
“Deep sky.’ I get it. All right! Tony’s a good guy.
24 is good again. What new video today?
Bush, and Hillary.
Yes. Unfortunately I knew that in advance, so the thrill in the thriller wasn’t as great …
># Capitol Boy Says:
January 12th, 2009 at 8:21 pm edit
“Deep sky.’ I get it. All right! Tony’s a good guy.