January 8th, 2009

Non-Random Notes


President-elect Barack Obama had an historic meeting yesterday in the White House with outgoing President George W. Bush and former Presidents Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter.

**  GAZA CRISIS: REVERSING COURSE, U.S. WORKS ON CEASEFIRE. After yesterday’s tragedy, when an Israeli strike on a UN school killed over 40 people, many of them children, the US is working with the French and the British on a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire. Secretary of State Condi Rice had previously called on Israel to consider an Egyptian ceasefire proposal worked out with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, which Hamas then rejected.

The draft reveals a shift in the Western nations’ approach to U.N. Security Council action on the Palestinian territory. The Council had been discussing an earlier proposal by the U.S., Britain and France that involves a non-binding statement on Gaza.  …  Before being presented with the latest draft, Arab League chief Amr Moussa said Arab foreign ministers are ready to push for a vote in the Security Council, adding “we cannot wait anymore.”

Israel has said it will only accept a cease-fire that stops Hamas rocket fire from Gaza into the Jewish state, and prevents Palestinian militants from re-arming. Hamas says it will not accept a truce deal unless it includes an end to Israel’s blockade of Gaza.

It’s been pretty clear for a while that Israel had a limited window of opportunity to take down the offensive capability of Hamas. The air strikes had limited effect and the ground assault has mostly shied away from the most heavily populated areas.

**  SCHWARZENEGGER AND ALLIES RELEASE POLL SHOWING BIG SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joined his fellow co-chairmen of Building America’s Future  –  Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg  –  on a late morning conference call to release a new poll. Conducted by Republican pollster and Fox News analyst Frank Luntz, who was also on the call, the poll shows big support for new investment in infrastructure.

The highest priority, which tracks with Obama Administration priorities, is for new energy infrastructure, which Schwarzenegger played up in his remarks. Second highest is the more traditional notion of roads and highways, with clean water coming in third.

81% said they would be willing to pay 1% more in taxes to build America’s infrastructure.

**  ANALYST: SCHWARZENEGGER BUDGET RISKY, AS IS DEMOCRATIC ALTERNATIVE. The California Legislative Analyst Office issued a review this morning of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s new budget proposal. While the report describes it as a worthy effort, it points out that it relies on some voter approvals and borrowings that may not hold up. For example, voters would have to approve the billions to be gained from turning the state Lottery over to private management. And billions more would come from borrowing that may not be allowed under 2004′s Prop 58  –  adopted at Schwarzenegger’s insistence.

On the other hand, the Democratic alternative, which relies on a complex plan to reclassify tax hikes as fees, is also risky. The LAO recommends that legislative leaders consider placing tax hikes on the ballot instead.

**  POIZNER BRINGS ON MEDIA CONSULTANTS. As he gears up for a possible free-for-all California Republican gubernatorial primary against another super-rich candidate from Silicon Valley, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has brought on a high-powered media consulting firm from Washington, Stuart Stevens and Russ Schriefer. They’ve worked for President Bush and for winning campaigns around the country. Among other things, they did the famous “windsurfer” spot attacking John Kerry as a flip-flopper.

As it happens, Stevens is a former colleague of mine. He was a writer for the NBC series Mister Sterling, a show starring Josh Brolin about a maverick senator from California for which I was a consulting producer. Stevens wrote an entertaining book about the rise of Bush, entitled “The Big Enchilada,” and has been a writer and producer on a number of network TV shows.

**  LOOK OUT, BARBARA! DEVORE FOR SENATE. Assuming that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger doesn’t run, California Republicans already have a clear frontrunner for the nomination against U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer in 2010. That’s Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. He’s a very earnest member of the lower house’s far right crew, who nonetheless is proud to announce that he has the backing of almost all of his Republican colleagues, including Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines, and a half-dozen state Senate Republicans, including the likely nominee for lieutenant governor, Jeff Denham, target of the ill-fated recall move pushed by former Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata. DeVore led a pro-nuclear power initiative campaign that failed to get off the launch pad. Boxer, now chair of the Senate Environment & Public Works Committee, shouldn’t be losing any sleep.

**  OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama gives a major speech on his economic stimulus plan this morning at George Mason University in Washington. The speech is at 8 AM Pacific and will be road-blocked on all cable news nets.

At 12:30 PM Pacific he holds a press conference with Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, his pick to be the new chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Obama also meets privately with members of the Senate Finance Committee to go over his economic stimulus program. Elsewhere in the Senate, the first Cabinet confirmation hearing is held. Obama’s longtime close advisor, former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, is Obama’s pick to the new secretary of health and human services.

Obama is continuing to monitor the Gaza and Mumbai crises. On the latter, Pakistan is admitting that the surviving terrorist in Indian custody is a Pakistani, who was trained in Pakistan. On the former, there was a big scare overnight  –  I awoke to find a score of alerts on my BlackBerry  –  as several rockets were apparently launched into Israel from Lebanon, raising the prospect that Hezbollah was entering the fray. But that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Vice President-elect Joe Biden is leading a congressional delegation on a trip to the Middle East and South Asia.


With an arctic front hovering over the continent, Russia is putting a big squeeze on Ukraine, and Europe.

He and Obama are also monitoring the Russia-Ukraine dispute. Russia wants to bend Ukraine away from the US and NATO and back to its traditional sphere of influence, and so is taking advantage of Ukraine’s failure to pay a big natural gas bill  –  and its theft of gas passing through the country  –  to cut off natural gas flows through Ukraine. Which cuts off natural gas flows to Europe. This is high-pressure politics and it will probably work.

From Obama’s upcoming big economic address: I don’t believe it’s too late to change course, but it will be if we don’t take dramatic action as soon as possible.  If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years.  The unemployment rate could reach double digits.  Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four.  We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future.  And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world. In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse.  …

There is no doubt that the cost of this plan will be considerable.  It will certainly add to the budget deficit in the short-term.  But equally certain are the consequences of doing too little or nothing at all, for that will lead to an even greater deficit of jobs, incomes, and confidence in our economy.  It is true that we cannot depend on government alone to create jobs or long-term growth, but at this particular moment, only government can provide the short-term boost necessary to lift us from a recession this deep and severe.  Only government can break the vicious cycles that are crippling our economy – where a lack of spending leads to lost jobs which leads to even less spending; where an inability to lend and borrow stops growth and leads to even less credit.  …

That work begins with this plan – a plan I am confident will save or create at least three million jobs over the next few years.  It is not just another public works program.  It’s a plan that recognizes both the paradox and the promise of this moment – the fact that there are millions of Americans trying to find work, even as, all around the country, there is so much work to be done.   That’s why we’ll invest in priorities like energy and education; health care and a new infrastructure that are necessary to keep us strong and competitive in the 21st century.  That’s why the overwhelming majority of the jobs created will be in the private sector, while our plan will save the public sector jobs of teachers, cops, firefighters and others who provide vital services.  …

I understand that some might be skeptical of this plan.  Our government has already spent a good deal of money, but we haven’t yet seen that translate into more jobs or higher incomes or renewed confidence in our economy.  That’s why the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan won’t just throw money at our problems – we’ll invest in what works.  The true test of the policies we’ll pursue won’t be whether they’re Democratic or Republican ideas, but whether they create jobs, grow our economy, and put the American Dream within reach of the American people.

Instead of politicians doling out money behind a veil of secrecy, decisions about where we invest will be made transparently, and informed by independent experts wherever possible.  Every American will be able to hold Washington accountable for these decisions by going online to see how and where their tax dollars are being spent.  And as I announced yesterday, we will launch an unprecedented effort to eliminate unwise and unnecessary spending that has never been more unaffordable for our nation and our children’s future than it is right now.  …

**  FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has private meetings and discussions today in and around the Capitol. His main topic? The chronic California budget crisis.

Late this morning he holds a media conference call on the need for massive infrastructure investment with Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

**  CIA: PARSING THE PANETTA PICK. From my new column.

**  OBAMA: VACATION’S END. …  From my Friday Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $41 to $42 per barrel range.

The drop of $106 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

73 Responses to “Non-Random Notes”

  1. Capitol Boy says:

    Neither are you Deude. Don’t be so nuts.

    TRIATHLON Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
    FOR WHOME THE BELL TOLLS:

  2. Capitol Boy says:

    Don’t think so.

    Brasky Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
    “SCHWARZENEGGER AND ALLIES RELEASE POLL SHOWING BIG SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT.”

    Interesting poll results given that Arnold has insisted on fast-tracking infrastructure as part of any budget deal. It looks like voters could be turned against that position.

  3. Brasky says:

    “Folks are watching the BCS game…don’t think you will get a response to your most excellent points until later.”

    Oh, well I’m at work…so there you have it.

    What is this “TV” that you guys keep speaking of? :)

  4. Brasky says:

    “Don’t think so.”

    I’m not sure. Infrastructure (at least the kind being talked about here) isn’t my bag.

    Don’t really care if it’s fast-tracked or not — I WOULD like a budget…soon…

  5. Sacramento Solon says:

    Brasky Says:

    What is this “TV” that you guys keep speaking of? :)

    ——

    Tunnel vision…it’s what happens when you spend too much time at work! :-)

  6. Capitol Boy says:

    SC is better.

  7. Sacramento Solon says:

    Agree

  8. Len says:

    Hey, what about Utah? They’re in the New West. Aren’t they?

  9. Sacramento Solon says:

    Len,

    Yes, Utah is in the New West. But, they would also fall at the feet of Troy. :-)

  10. Jonas Blane says:

    What new video today?

  11. Len says:

    USC’s too arrogant. That’s why they weren’t in the big game.

  12. Sacramento Solon says:

    Len,

    Perhaps. But they could beat Utah. :-)

  13. Bill Bradley says:

    It’s an LA thing.

    ># Len Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 7:42 am edit

    USC’s too arrogant. That’s why they weren’t in the big game.

  14. Bill Bradley says:

    Obama on the economy, the UN on Gaza.

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 6:32 am edit

    What new video today?

  15. Bill Bradley says:

    Indeed.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 9:11 pm edit

    SC is better.

  16. Bill Bradley says:

    Yes, they are. But they don’t have Rey Maualuga and Taylor Mays.

    ># Len Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 12:02 am edit

    Hey, what about Utah? They’re in the New West. Aren’t they?

  17. Bill Bradley says:

    TV is a highly advanced technology that is not yet widely available.

    We here at NWN expect it to become further disseminated throughout American society during the 1960s.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 6:42 pm edit

    “Folks are watching the BCS game…don’t think you will get a response to your most excellent points until later.”

    Oh, well I’m at work…so there you have it.

    What is this “TV” that you guys keep speaking of? :)

  18. Bill Bradley says:

    Indeed.

    ># Sacramento Solon Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 6:30 pm edit

    Brasky,

    Folks are watching the BCS game…don’t think you will get a response to your most excellent points until later.

    Me, I’m multitasking…responding to you, watching the game and drinking wine! :-)

  19. Bill Bradley says:

    My ears are detecting a ding dong.

    >TRIATHLON Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 5:21 pm edit

    FOR WHOME THE BELL TOLLS:

  20. Bill Bradley says:

    Yes. It is true. Remember that his lovely hapa wife was all blowed up during the simultaneous assassination of former President David Palmer, the precursor for Barack Obama.

    ># marcos leon Says:
    January 8th, 2009 at 4:18 pm edit

    Tony Almeida is a bad guy? NOOOOOO.

  21. Bill Bradley says:

    Incidentally, NWN passed 77,000 comments sometime in the past week.

  22. It is been discussed the energy concepts in the future where it is helpful for everyone in a easier manner. It reduces the unwanted resources which are harmful and makes use of the natural resources .

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