January 7th, 2009

Non-Random Notes


This is purported footage, courtesy of Al Jazeera, of a Hamas attack on Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip.

**  IS ISRAEL INCHING TOWARD A CEASEFIRE? Israel has begun a daily three-hour ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to allow residents to get basic supplies. The Israeli cabinet debated for hours today whether to halt the offensive against Hamas or expand it into the most urbanized areas. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Condi Rice is urging Israel to accept a ceasefire being worked out by Egypt.

**  LENGTHY ECONOMIC WOES PREDICTED. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said today that the US economy is expected to shrink 2.2% in 2009 and grow 1.5% in 2010. The CBO’s new forecast also said the unemployment rate will rise to 8.3% in 2009 and 9% in 2010.

**  SCHWARZENEGGER SAYS HE’LL RE-START BUDGET TALKS WITH BOTH PARTIES. At his press conference this afternoon, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger  –  who as expected vetoed a Democratic plan to substitute fees for tax hikes  –  said he’ll re-start talks with both parties on a solution. Schwarzenegger says he wants to streamline the regulatory system to get infrastructure funds into the economic pipeline right away.

He will have a Big Five meeting tomorrow with Democratic and Republican legislative leaders from both houses. Are Republicans ready to deal with the obvious, the need for some new tax hikes? We’ll see.

**  RUSSIA CUTS OFF EUROPE. Russia today cut off all natural gas flows through Ukraine. That cuts off the biggest flow of natural gas into Europe in the height of winter. Why? Ukraine hasn’t paid for all its gas, and has been stealing some of the gas flowing through its country. And because Russia wants to force changes in Ukrainian politics, especially to turn the country away from the US.

One-fourth of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia. But the proportion in some nations, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, is much higher.

**  BIG SUPPORT FOR MAJOR GOVERNMENTAL ROLE IN THE ECONOMY. The new Republican Rasmussen poll of US voters finds a large margin in favor of the federal government intervening directly in the national economy.

A majority of voters (54%) believe a major government economic recovery plan is necessary to restore the U.S. economy to good health. Just one-third (33%) say the economy can recover on its own, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.

**  OBAMA PICKS TROUBLE-SHOOTING ENVOYS. The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder has word of President-elect Barack Obama’s picks for regional trouble-shooters around the globe. Transition officials confirm that President-elect Obama has asked Dennis Ross, Richard Haass, and Richard Holbrooke, to serve as his chief emissaries to  world hot spots.

It’s expected that Ross will get the Iran portfolio, that Holbrooke, the hard-headed architect of the Dayton Peace Accords, will take the tough (and tougher) Southwest Asia portfolio, which includes India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that Haass will deal with the Middle East. Each men’s turf is still in flux, so the assignments might change. Other envoys will be added to this list; they’ll deal with Africa and South America.

All three have the chops; all three are considered realists; all three have direct experience as envoys; Haass was the U.S. government’s chief negotiator in Northern Ireland; Ross shuttled between Mideast capitals during the Clinton administration, and Holbrooke, as mentioned, brought warring sides together in the Balkans.  Haas served under Presidents Clinton and Bush and is currently the president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

**  BAD NEWS FOR PALIN. A new poll out of Alaska has Governor Sarah Palin trailing Senator Lisa Murkowski in a prospective 2010 Republican primary, 57% to 33%. Where is the love?


President-elect Barack Obama met with economic advisors yesterday in Washington.

**  OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama continues transition work in Washington in advance of his inauguration on January 20th. He has lunch today at the White House with President Bush and the other living former presidents: Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter.

New Senate Intelligence Committee chair Dianne Feinstein, as I expected, has decided to go along with Obama’s appointment of Leon Panetta to be the new director of the CIA. She will apparently get her way on having her pick for director, current CIA Deputy Director Stephen Kappes, stay on as Panetta’s deputy.

And while he still has a few hoops to jump through, it looks like former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris will be seated as Obama’s replacement in the Senate.

**  FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has private meetings and discussions today in and around the Capitol. At 2 PM this afternoon he holds a Capitol press conference on California’s chronic budget crisis.

The event will be webcast live on www.gov.ca.gov.

Not surprisingly, late yesterday Schwarzenegger vetoed the Democratic budget plan which would raise taxes as fees. Schwarzenegger is concerned about the legality of the move and dissatisfied with Democratic moves to assuage his concerns for an economic stimulus. Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines has also held out the prospect of Republican votes for a tax hike in exchange for a hard budget cap.

**  CIA: PARSING THE PANETTA PICK. Let’s parse Barack Obama’s pick of Leon Panetta to be director of the Central Intelligence Agency. It’s stirring up some controversy, even among Democrats. Which is probably a good sign about this very capable, amiable, non-arrogant fixture of decades on the California political scene. And while we’re at it, let’s give some depth to his background beyond the usual shorthand “former Clinton chief of staff,” which doesn’t really explain him at all, as he comes out of the almost forgotten liberal Republican tradition.

Panetta’s fellow Californian Dianne Feinstein, the incoming chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, is miffed that word of the appointment got out before she was notified, saying that she’s always thought the post should go to an intelligence professional. It also turns out that she may have had her own candidate, a career CIA insider, a sign that Feinstein’s grasp of the political atmospherics today is, let’s say, not strong.

In any event, the contention of Feinstein — a highly-briefed senator who was absolutely convinced of the existence of Iraqi WMD, incidentally, speaking of getting it dead wrong — that an intelligence professional is always better than a non-professional ignores some of America’s most important history. In the 1950s, CIA Director Allen Dulles was widely acknowledged as one of the world’s pre-eminent spymasters. But it’s hard to say how good he was, because most of what he did was shrouded in secrecy.

One thing that was not shrouded in secrecy was the Bay of Pigs, that famously dunderheaded plan to invade Cuba in 1961 which Dulles and some warhawk generals conned the young JFK into approving. After that, Kennedy vowed to “smash the CIA into a thousand pieces.” After calming down, he made his brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, the overseer of the intelligence community and brought in another Californian with no intelligence background, businessman John McCone, to run the CIA. McCone proved to be a highly effective CIA director, especially during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

There’s no reason to think that Leon Panetta can’t be a very good CIA director following another period of notable CIA failures and scandals. From my new column.

**  OBAMA: VACATION’S END. …  From my Friday Huffington Post column.

**  HOW OBAMA’S ADROIT SYMBOLISM YIELDS SKY-HIGH APPROVAL. From my Monday column.

**  OBAMA FLOATS THROUGH TEAPOT TEMPESTS. …  From my December 22nd column.

** CALIFORNIA CRACKING. From my December 10th column.

** 12 KEY THINGS ABOUT THE MUMBAI CRISIS. From my December 5th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW POWER TROIKA FACES CRISES OLD AND NEW. From my December 3rd column.

** HAPPY THANKSGIVING, MR. PRESIDENT-ELECT! While Barack Obama promised “a new and brighter day yet to come” in his Thanksgiving address, an old and darker day yet to leave reminds that events — and perhaps political fate itself — can turn on a dime in presidential politics. …

For a political operation that prefers to focus on its preferences, it’s a sharp reminder to Team Obama that the presidency can be every bit as reactive as it is proactive.From my November 28th Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $45 to $46 per barrel range.

The drop of $102 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of previous geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

64 Responses to “Non-Random Notes”

  1. Jonas Blane says:

    Kind of a dull meeting for Obama.

  2. Pat Skipper says:

    Great work on the Panetta article. Nice to see a clean break from the failed policies of the present. It will be interesting to see if his political abilities will allow him to survive that atmospherics of that culture, which is certainly the most insulated and clubby in the world.

  3. Jonas Blane says:

    The combat footage from Gaza is very good.

  4. Capitol Boy says:

    It’s stunning when the Israeli solder is shot and falls on the tank.

  5. Capitol Boy says:

    He can’t be fascinating all the time.

    Jonas Blane Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:06 am
    Kind of a dull meeting for Obama.

  6. Capitol Boy says:

    Wow, did you see the pictures just now of Barack with the other presidents in the Oval Office? I got chills.

  7. Bill Bradley says:

    That was quite a sight. I’ll have it here later.

  8. Bill Bradley says:

    Well, why not?!

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:13 am edit

    He can’t be fascinating all the time.

    Jonas Blane Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:06 am
    Kind of a dull meeting for Obama.

  9. Bill Bradley says:

    It is, and sad.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:13 am edit

    It’s stunning when the Israeli solder is shot and falls on the tank.

  10. Bill Bradley says:

    It does look legit.

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:11 am edit

    The combat footage from Gaza is very good.

  11. Bill Bradley says:

    Thanks, Pat. Happy New Year!

    ># Pat Skipper Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:08 am edit

    Great work on the Panetta article. Nice to see a clean break from the failed policies of the present. It will be interesting to see if his political abilities will allow him to survive that atmospherics of that culture, which is certainly the most insulated and clubby in the world.

  12. Bill Bradley says:

    Yeah, I debated putting it on top.

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:06 am edit

    Kind of a dull meeting for Obama.

  13. Dana says:

    Fred Kaplan reports wise heads like Richard Clarke and Seantor Rockefeller think having Kappes continue as CIA deputy would be a good move.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2208020/pagenum/all/#p2

    I heard Obama this morning make clear there are no sacred cows and that to get a handle on the budget he intends that programs which are ineffective will be on the chopping block. How can Republicans complain about a President who actually goes after waste and fraud? Versus having them as soundbites that you never do anything about.

    Bill asked a few days ago what will we do when we don’t have Bush to kick around any more? To have a government that is competent and moving foward is something I would exalt in. I have little enjoyment in cataloging the Bush blunders, and to be positive because positive things are happening would be a pleasure.

  14. Len says:

    Didn’t Richard Clarke turn down CIA director?

  15. Brasky says:

    “BAD NEWS FOR PALIN…Where is the love?”

    It must have been returned with the $250,000 wardrobe…

  16. Bill Bradley says:

    So much for the big Palin idea.

    Though she is still extremely popular amongst the far right, along with Joe the Plumber. Who I have never actually met, though I did manage to meet her. Count me under-wowed.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 10:40 am edit

    “BAD NEWS FOR PALIN…Where is the love?”

    It must have been returned with the $250,000 wardrobe…

  17. Bill Bradley says:

    He apparently did.

    ># Len Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 10:20 am edit

    Didn’t Richard Clarke turn down CIA director?

  18. Bill Bradley says:

    Clarke and Rockefeller are coming from different places, but it seems Mr. Kappes is in if he wants to be.

    ># Dana Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 10:15 am edit

    Fred Kaplan reports wise heads like Richard Clarke and Seantor Rockefeller think having Kappes continue as CIA deputy would be a good move.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2208020/pagenum/all/#p2

    I heard Obama this morning make clear there are no sacred cows and that to get a handle on the budget he intends that programs which are ineffective will be on the chopping block. How can Republicans complain about a President who actually goes after waste and fraud? Versus having them as soundbites that you never do anything about.

    Bill asked a few days ago what will we do when we don’t have Bush to kick around any more? To have a government that is competent and moving foward is something I would exalt in. I have little enjoyment in cataloging the Bush blunders, and to be positive because positive things are happening would be a pleasure.

  19. Sullihan says:

    Long life and good health to Lisa Murkowski!

    As for the divine Sarah, she either reinvents herself so that people think there is some substance behind those glasses, or there is only an Amercian Express type ad in her future. Remember “You know me, I ran for vice president of the United States …”?

  20. marcos leon says:

    That doesn’t sound so good but I never expected Obama to produce show trials. I like the Panetta pick.

  21. marcos leon says:

    I was talking about the Steve Kappes guy at CIA.

  22. marcos leon says:

    Those look like good picks for a lot of trouble …

    ** OBAMA PICKS TROUBLE-SHOOTING ENVOYS. The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder has word of President-elect Barack Obama’s picks for regional trouble-shooters around the globe. Transition officials confirm that President-elect Obama has asked Dennis Ross, Richard Haass, and Richard Holbrooke, to serve as his chief emissaries to world hot spots.

    It’s expected that Ross will get the Iran portfolio, that Holbrooke, the hard-headed architect of the Dayton Peace Accords, will take the tough (and tougher) Southwest Asia portfolio, which includes India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that Haass will deal with the Middle East. Each men’s turf is still in flux, so the assignments might change. Other envoys will be added to this list; they’ll deal with Africa and South America.

    All three have the chops; all three are considered realists; all three have direct experience as envoys; Haass was the U.S. government’s chief negotiator in Northern Ireland; Ross shuttled between Mideast capitals during the Clinton administration, and Holbrooke, as mentioned, brought warring sides together in the Balkans. Haas served under Presidents Clinton and Bush and is currently the president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

  23. marcus waldron says:

    Yes, that’s a terrific article.

    Pat Skipper Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 9:08 am
    Great work on the Panetta article. Nice to see a clean break from the failed policies of the present. It will be interesting to see if his political abilities will allow him to survive that atmospherics of that culture, which is certainly the most insulated and clubby in the world.

  24. marcus waldron says:

    Can we stop thinking about her now?

    ** BAD NEWS FOR PALIN. A new poll out of Alaska has Governor Sarah Palin trailing Senator Lisa Murkowski in a prospective 2010 Republican primary, 57% to 33%. Where is the love?

  25. Brasky says:

    “Can we stop thinking about her now?”

    I hope not…

  26. Jack Aubrey says:

    Is it true that Pajamas Media is sending Joe the Plumber to cover the Gaza conflict??!!

  27. Jack Aubrey says:

    The wingnuts LOVE HER.

    marcus waldron Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
    Can we stop thinking about her now?

    ** BAD NEWS FOR PALIN. A new poll out of Alaska has Governor Sarah Palin trailing Senator Lisa Murkowski in a prospective 2010 Republican primary, 57% to 33%. Where is the love?

  28. larry says:

    Sullihan wrote:
    As for the divine Sarah, she either reinvents herself so that people think there is some substance behind those glasses, or there is only an Amercian Express type ad in her future. Remember “You know me, I ran for vice president of the United States …”?

    Hey, I remember Bill Miller, too.

  29. TRIATHLON says:

    (USI/MIC) “FREE AND FAIR” COVERAGE: Starved and Suffocated.

    THE CAUSE:

    The (USI/MIC) United States of Israel Military Industrial Complex media with its propaganda center located in (NYC) New York City, “Little Israel” provider’s domestic media reporting to persuade and provide a biased and false representation of ongoing political/economic issues outside the (USI/MIC). Chomsky’s book “Manufacturing Consent” illustrate with various media source examples the ongoing onslaught of false media and political manipulation to the viewing population of the (USI/MIC), and once read, one only need view any of the (USI/MIC/NYC) media affiliates reporting domestically which differs from their International Reporting, to see and understand, the depth to which they have succeeded in having starved and suffocated free and fair press coverage of not only domestic but international news coverage and reporting.

    THE REASON:

    The Media Owner’s have sold out to Washington, D. C., for fear of loosing their influence, position, and favor with those interests that have power and influence on them through their Washington, D.C. lobbies. The media editors are interested in pleasing their media owner bosses, and the scripted reports are read by American correspondents who fear losing their jobs. All levels in the Media choosing not to voice the truth as they would lose their favor, positions or jobs within the (USIMIC) or corporate power structure, Are more than willing too parrot and spoon feeding the governments filtered and biased propaganda to the American Public, which may or may not be their own personal opinions, and in fact many government officials in Washington, D. C., can’t even voice their true opinions for the same reasons.

    THE REACTION:

    The American Public are getting a “Domestically” reported biased, distorted, picture and not the “International” big picture, as the entire world becomes more frustrated with a people and its government growing more out of touch with its neighbors in the world society. For its part the American Public is more than willing too except and believe anything that does not take them out of their media induced Twilight Comfort Zone, of blissfull ignorance, believing that the (USI/MIC) is acting in their interest, when it is actually working and is geared to work only in its own and lobbyist interests, using whatever means is available to cover up those interests, and the best way is to have a friendly, controlled, and biased, media.

  30. Prospero says:

    [Doing his Ann impersonation]

    Where’s Schwarzenegger?

    Now that I think of it, where’s Ann?

  31. Brasky says:

    TRIATHLON:

    If you’re going to insist on posting here, you might try to at least come up with ORIGINAL crazy blather. Jews controlling the media isn’t just wrong and bigoted, but it’s frankly rather boring.

    How about something on the Pentavirate, their meetings at a secret country mansion in Colorado known as “The Meadows” and how Colonel Sanders puts a secret chemical in his chicken that makes you crave it fortnightly?

  32. Brasky says:

    ” BIG SUPPORT FOR MAJOR GOVERNMENTAL ROLE IN THE ECONOMY”

    Thank you for this. If anyone knows of similar polls knocking deregulation and/or showing support for government in the economy, please post them.

  33. Pat Skipper says:

    Tri, I have trouble taking people who can’t spell “losing” seriously. “Loosing” was what I did to my belt after the Christmas feast. “Losing” is what I did when I put a bet on Penn State to beat SC.

  34. Sacramento Solon says:

    Pat,

    You deserved to lose…and then get loose…after making such a wager. Old Solon would have advised you better…and charged you just a wee bit for the tip! :-)

    Happy New Year!

  35. Ann says:

    He conflicted with my soaps. lol

    Prospero Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
    [Doing his Ann impersonation]

    Where’s Schwarzenegger?

    Now that I think of it, where’s Ann?

  36. Prospero says:

    Your soaps probably had much better fantasy in them than what the Gov was providing. Not that it wasn’t interesting fantasy, but I like fantasy I can believe in, like having good hair days all the time. I think that’s more achievable than Republican votes for taxes.

  37. Brasky says:

    Is it my imagination, or did Arnold just add another leg to his stool? I thought he talked about a three-legged stool, but now we are talking about a four legged stool (he forgot foreclosure assistance, which would make five legs).

    Arnold’s solution is starting to look more like a centipede than a stool…

  38. Prospero says:

    Or a porcupine. Some of those things aren’t sturdy enough to be legs.

  39. Dana says:

    Speaking of mis-spellings, how about what I found on the OMB website? Definitions is now Definations? And it evidently was posted a month or so ago (check out the entry for OMB Bulletin No. 09-01). I guess with the Bush regime coming to a sad ending the great minds no longer proofread what they post on the White House website. What next? Iriq? Chiney?

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/index.html#2007

  40. Brasky says:

    Dana: Maybe the Bush administration DID send water bottles to Katrina victims. They just sent them to the New Orlando Supre Doom, instead of the New Orleans Super Dome…

  41. Dana says:

    Brasky, #42 made me split a gut. Supre Doom–Too funny!

  42. Ann says:

    lol

    Brasky Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
    Dana: Maybe the Bush administration DID send water bottles to Katrina victims. They just sent them to the New Orlando Supre Doom, instead of the New Orleans Super Dome…

  43. Bill Bradley says:

    Where do you suppose they ended up?

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 4:34 pm edit

    Dana: Maybe the Bush administration DID send water bottles to Katrina victims. They just sent them to the New Orlando Supre Doom, instead of the New Orleans Super Dome…

  44. Bill Bradley says:

    Perhaps it means something else …

    ># Dana Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 4:28 pm edit

    Speaking of mis-spellings, how about what I found on the OMB website? Definitions is now Definations? And it evidently was posted a month or so ago (check out the entry for OMB Bulletin No. 09-01). I guess with the Bush regime coming to a sad ending the great minds no longer proofread what they post on the White House website. What next? Iriq? Chiney?

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/index.html#2007

  45. Bill Bradley says:

    Oh?

    ># Prospero Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 4:18 pm edit

    Or a porcupine. Some of those things aren’t sturdy enough to be legs.

  46. Bill Bradley says:

    Actually, he did talk about foreclosure assistance.

    ># Brasky Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 4:07 pm edit

    Is it my imagination, or did Arnold just add another leg to his stool? I thought he talked about a three-legged stool, but now we are talking about a four legged stool (he forgot foreclosure assistance, which would make five legs).

    Arnold’s solution is starting to look more like a centipede than a stool…

  47. Bill Bradley says:

    And we are certain that calling taxes fees is not a fantasy?

    ># Prospero Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 3:42 pm edit

    Your soaps probably had much better fantasy in them than what the Gov was providing. Not that it wasn’t interesting fantasy, but I like fantasy I can believe in, like having good hair days all the time. I think that’s more achievable than Republican votes for taxes.

  48. Bill Bradley says:

    That’s pretty good.

    ># Ann Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 3:13 pm edit

    He conflicted with my soaps. lol

    Prospero Says:
    January 7th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
    [Doing his Ann impersonation]

    Where’s Schwarzenegger?

    Now that I think of it, where’s Ann?

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