December 18th, 2008

Non-Random Notes


President-elect Barack Obama announced his picks for Secretary of Agriculture and Secretary of the Interior at a press conference yesterday in Chicago.

** SWIFT HITS. LA Rep. Hilda Solis is the pick to be the new secretary of labor. Yesterday, Berkeley professor Harley Shaiken, a labor favorite, looked like the pick. With LA Rep. Zavier Becerra declining to be the international trade representative, that helped change things. … Retired Admiral Dennis Blair is the pick to be director of national intelligence. I think I predicted that a few weeks ago. … Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger says he won’t sign the budget plan cobbled together by Democratic legislative leaders as it doesn’t stimulate the economy enough by fast-tracking public works programs, using more contractors and allowing him to furlough state workers. There’s also a real legal concern about the sleight of hand displacement of gas taxes by a bigger gasoline “fee,” without calling it a tax, though Schwarzenegger didn’t emphasize that. (See below for more discussion.) …

** CLINTON REVEALS DONORS. Former President Bill Clinton reveals the donors to his foundation. Have fun.

** OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama has private meetings in Chicago, as the Blago scandal keeps going. It had been an advantage to be in Chicago, but not with this circus.

He also has a 7:45 AM Pacific press conference, at which he is set to name Mary Schapiro, CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority as SEC chair, Gary Gensler to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Daniel Tarullo, one of his economic policy advisors, to the Federal Reserve Board.

These picks are key with the Wall Street scandals.

After private consideration, Obama is looking at an $850 billion economic stimlus plan.


Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger yesterday celebrated the historic first win of a redistricting reform initiative, with allies seen in this NWN video of a year ago at the campaign kick-off.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has private talks in the Capitol. At 2:30, he celebrates the season by lighting the Menorah on the West Steps of the Capitol.

The event will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.

Not surprisingly, the latest try to solve the budget crisis failed last night in the state Assembly and Senate, which did not meet.

Schwarzenegger’s big infrastrcture plan ground to a halt yesday as a state board decided the state no longer has the cash to proceed. And with the state’s chronic fiscal crisis going ever onward — thanks largely to GOP intransigence on any taxes at all — California’s Democratic legislative leaders will tried yesterday and last night to pass a partial budget solution that essentially flips existing gas taxes for other new taxes, in a play to make it revenue neutral, thereby side-stepping the two-thirds vote. How so? The gas taxes have to go to transportation programs. The dollars from other sources — an increased sales tax, and a new oil severance tax and income tax surcharge — can go to the general fund. However, there’s a trick. The slashing of the gas tax would be more than made up by a new 39 cent a gallon “fee.” Is it all legal? Perhaps. Will Schwarzenegger go for the plan? Not yet.

What’s missing? Legal certainty that the gas tax/fee flip which amounts to an increase for voters, works. And economic stimlus. They’ll try again today.

** CALIFORNIA CRACKING. From my latest column.

** 12 KEY THINGS ABOUT THE MUMBAI CRISIS. From my December 5th column.

** OBAMA’S NEW POWER TROIKA FACES CRISES OLD AND NEW. From my December 3rd column.

** HAPPY THANKSGIVING, MR. PRESIDENT-ELECT! While Barack Obama promised “a new and brighter day yet to come” in his Thanksgiving address, an old and darker day yet to leave reminds that events — and perhaps political fate itself — can turn on a dime in presidential politics. …

For a political operation that prefers to focus on its preferences, it’s a sharp reminder to Team Obama that the presidency can be every bit as reactive as it is proactive.From my November 28th Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading at $38 per barrel. This is below the four-year low of $39.80 per barrel reached yesterday. OPEC’s try to bolster the price with a big production cut isn’t working so far.

The drop of over $109 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

91 Responses to “Non-Random Notes”

  1. Brasky says:

    “Er, why … yes! And that’s why Speaker Pelosi said she’d spend $10 million to beat it if Congress wasn’t removed … ”

    I was talking relative chump-change of one or two million. Perata had that much (and more).

    I don’t take Prop 8 or Prop 11 as an accurate guage of Californian attitudes, since both NO campaigns were disasters.

  2. Bill Bradley says:

    Look to other reasons why Perata didn’t raise the $$.

  3. Bill Bradley says:

    Rachel’s a terrific broadcast, not a terrific analyst.

    ># Brasky Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm edit

    “He’s on her show right now.”

    Whatever.

  4. Bill Bradley says:

    That $$ is not a winner, btw …

    ># Bill Bradley Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:26 pm edit

    Look to other reasons why Perata didn’t raise the $$.

  5. Bill Bradley says:

    What if the bigger gas “fee” is really a tax?

    I don’t think I know a lot of folks who won’t think the gas tax was raised with this plan …

    ># Brasky Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm edit

    I don’t see how Arnold can refuse to sign this. He hasn’t been able to get the Republicans to do ANYTHING on the budget (for his entire tenure as governor).

    Finally the Dems take some big heat for big cuts and tax/fee increases and he’s going to say it isn’t enough?

    Plus, it’s not like we aren’t going to have to take several more swipes at the budget (both current and out years). Jesus, the state is burning to the ground and Arnold doesn’t like the color of the Goddamn firehose.

    OK — what was that deficit clock at when the Dems transmit those bills? Every dollar more is because of Arnold…

  6. Sacramento Solon says:

    Brasky Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
    I don’t see how Arnold can refuse to sign this. He hasn’t been able to get the Republicans to do ANYTHING on the budget (for his entire tenure as governor).

    —–

    He’s a girly man….

  7. paul says:

    I find it bitterly ironic that our wanna-be green governor vetoed this package in large part because it didn’t roll back CEQA protections enough. I’m afraid he has badly miscalculated the adverse impact on the financial market of proving that California is impossibly dysfunctional, and he has placed too much hope in the idea that suspending enviro laws is going to solve the financial crisis.

    This is a dangerous game of chicken. I’m afraid a lot of people got hurt today, for no good reason.

  8. Capitol Boy says:

    WTF?

  9. Capitol Boy says:

    Have another drink.

    Sacramento Solon Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
    Brasky Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
    I don’t see how Arnold can refuse to sign this. He hasn’t been able to get the Republicans to do ANYTHING on the budget (for his entire tenure as governor).

    —–

    He’s a girly man….

  10. Capitol Boy says:

    What if?

    Bill Bradley Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
    What if the bigger gas “fee” is really a tax?

  11. Capitol Boy says:

    Oh, I agree with that. :)

    Brasky Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
    “He’s on her show right now.”

    Whatever.

  12. Sacramento Solon says:

    CB…

    Thank you. Might just do that. But I will still think he’s a girly man.

  13. marcus says:

    Gray Davis screwed your dip state for years.

  14. Sacramento Solon says:

    Marcus,

    The first action by our current governor cost us six billion…think that might be of some benefit today? :-)

  15. marcus says:

    Still don’t get the California Recall?

  16. Sacramento Solon says:

    Marcus,

    I get it…it was brought to us by the same folks who have given us the 2/3 vote, term limits and many other things that bring us to this current problem. Understand it fully, just don’t agree with it.

  17. marcus says:

    Stop kidding yourself. You still don’t get why it happened.

  18. Sacramento Solon says:

    Marcus,

    Please don’t insult me. I’m being civil with you, do the same with me. I understand fully why it happened. Just don’t agree with it. If that’s hard for you to understand, don’t respond to what I write. You bring your opinion, based upon you set of facts beliefs to this site; I bring mine. Don’t thing the two will ever find agreement.

    Enjoy your evening.

  19. Sacramento Solon says:

    And the word is “think”, not “thing”! :-)

  20. marcus says:

    No, you don’t get it. Davis was terrible. He spent dollars he knew he didn’t have. He screwed up your electric power because he couldn’t make a decision. You don’t even understand that the car tax killed him.

    STILL DON’T GET THE CALIFORNIA RECALL!

  21. Sacramento Solon says:

    Marcus/CB…

    Thanks for the discussion. Stepping away from the keyboard for this evening. Need to go celebrate something very special that happened today. I hope that you enjoy this as much as old grumpy…and don’t take any of it too serious. Life is far too short.

    Happy Holidays to both of you!

  22. Dana says:

    That wouldn’t be pretty. Basically leaves entire state hostage to a small band of wingnuts.

    >Bill Bradley Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 5:52 pm

    What if they don’t fail?

  23. Dana says:

    Oh, Marcus we get the Recall. We get the opportunist activist who filed the papers and had rhetoric but no $$$. We get the opportunist Congressman with $$$ who paid for the signatures and thought he would become Governor. We understand somebody cleared the way for Arnold. We understand half the things you cite are symptoms of our dysfunctional politics or not just Davis’ fault (e.g. Enron gaming helped create the electric crisis). Arnold showboated on the car tax while the media and body politic never spoke out about the consequences of eliminating it.

    I like the Governor. He cares and tries his best. But his party is a mess and is undermining him, in pursuit of extreme ideology. And with term limits the Dems lack effective leadership. In the end is is we the public by our votes (for Props 13, 98, etc.) that have fostered this mess. And right now I see no adults to call a halt to the nonsense…

  24. marcus says:

    This is silly. DON’T GET THE RECALL.

    AT ALL.

    RIGHT BILL?

  25. Bill Bradley says:

    Well, I see a lot of circa 2003 44% thinking on this thread …

  26. Len says:

    What’s so brilliant about calling a tax a fee? I mean, it’d be nice. The California Democrats seem pretty dumb. They let the Reeps have all the districts they need to block the state budget. They couldn’t win one Congressional seat when Obama won the state with 62 percent of the vote. That’s dumb, man.

  27. Wilbur says:

    I found an explanation of the tax/fee gag which I actually could almost understand at http://californiascapitol.com/blog/?p=196

    It’s not entirely implausible.

  28. Brasky says:

    Well, it’s not like the dems are trying to trick the public into calling a tax a fee – this is a get-around the anachronistic 2/3 vote requirement. The dems are pretty straight forth on that.

    This isn’t an argument of semantics — the democrats are trying to raise taxes as a responsible PORTION of a $40+ billion deficit. The reason we are raising “fees” is because the republicans have been unwilling to even vote for revenue-neutral budgets, let alone one with taxes.

    Did Davis and the dem legislature help put us in a $40 billion hole? Yes. But we aren’t arguing about a “little” $10 billion hole anymore. If someone has thought of a way to get us on the right side of $40 billion without taxes, they’re keeping it a secret.

    Is today’s solution perfect? Hell no. But it is timely — we got the legislature to address an $18 billion gap in December. Timely is worth a lot more than perfect right now.

    Republicans still haven’t suggested ANYTHING close to a solution to address a $20 billion hole. Arnold hasn’t done CRAP to move this process along (he’s still fracking doing his damn ribbon cuttings).

    I give BIG props to the dem leadership on today’s stuff — they worked on getting half the problem addressed in a quick manner. And I think the regulars on this blog know I don’t heap praise on Dem leadership very often.

    Alright, back to the drawing board. Arnold doesn’t like what the Dems sent, so it’s on him to suggest something else.

    Meanwhile, lets throw out today’s efforts so we can do the same stupid crap we always do. Arnold’s clock can tick-on. Thousands of construction jobs can be flushed down the crapper.

    This plane is about to go down, but by all means, lets ensure that the tray-tables are in their upright and locked positions before we take any emergency action.

  29. Jonas Blane says:

    What new video today?

  30. Jonas Blane says:

    That’s what I mean.

    Brasky Says:
    December 19th, 2008 at 3:30 am
    Well, it’s not like the dems are trying to trick the public into calling a tax a fee

  31. elroy el says:

    The moonbat conservatives in OC are going into a frenzy over Solis as SecLabor.

    It must be a good choice.

  32. Bill Bradley says:

    Incidentally, NWN passed 76,000 comments sometime in the past week.

  33. Bill Bradley says:

    Perhaps.

    ># elroy el Says:
    December 19th, 2008 at 7:07 am edit

    The moonbat conservatives in OC are going into a frenzy over Solis as SecLabor.

    It must be a good choice.

  34. Bill Bradley says:

    The president-elect and Gordon Brown on oil.

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    December 19th, 2008 at 6:35 am edit

    What new video today?

  35. Bill Bradley says:

    It’s not?

    >Brasky Says:
    December 19th, 2008 at 3:30 am edit

    Well, it’s not like the dems are trying to trick the public into calling a tax a fee

  36. Bill Bradley says:

    Not entirely … a ringing endorseent.

    It’s not like nobody ever thought of this before …

    There’s no sense of history in the Cali Capitol.

    ># Wilbur Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 11:32 pm edit

    I found an explanation of the tax/fee gag which I actually could almost understand at http://californiascapitol.com/blog/?p=196

    It’s not entirely implausible.

  37. Bill Bradley says:

    Why?

    It’s not that easy to do.

    >Wilbur Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm edit

    Triathlon, I do agree that the Somali pirates thing has indeed given me the sense of a manufactured crisis of unknown objective. If the shipping companies were really concerned they’d put armed mercs on the ships and start blowing away approaching pirates, and that would be that.

  38. Bill Bradley says:

    That’s not what really happened …

    >Dana Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 9:20 pm edit

    Oh, Marcus we get the Recall. We get the opportunist activist who filed the papers and had rhetoric but no $$$. We get the opportunist Congressman with $$$ who paid for the signatures and thought he would become Governor. We understand somebody cleared the way for Arnold. We understand half the things you cite are symptoms of our dysfunctional politics or not just Davis’ fault (e.g. Enron gaming helped create the electric crisis). Arnold showboated on the car tax while the media and body politic never spoke out about the consequences of eliminating it.

  39. Bill Bradley says:

    Talking about a big maority of the voters?

    Gray screwed up, big time. It was actually his handling of the power crisis that finished him.

    ># Sacramento Solon Says:
    December 18th, 2008 at 7:47 pm edit

    Marcus,

    I get it…it was brought to us by the same folks who have given us the 2/3 vote, term limits and many other things that bring us to this current problem. Understand it fully, just don’t agree with it.

  40. Sacramento Solon says:

    Bill,

    Yes, I understand that. I also understand that Gray messed up the energy thing. And I stand by my last sentence.

    Doesn’t make be right, doesn’t make me wrong…just makes me have a different opinion that certain folks. My friend, please trust me on this, that’s not a new experience in my life. :-)

Leave a Reply