November 21st, 2008

Non-Random Notes


President-elect Barack Obama, in this video message, addressed the Governors Global Climate Summit in LA, hosted by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

** MARKET SURGES ON WORD OF OBAMA’S TREASURY PICK. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points today — placing it back above the 8000 level, which had previously seemed a market floor — on word that President-elect Barack Obama will name New York Federal Reserve chief Timothy Geithner as the next US secretary of the treasury. The 47-year old former risk management analyst at Kissinger & Associates was undersecretary of the treasury for international affairs in the Clinton Administration under both Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. The latter was seen as a top choice for the Treasury post, but had a problem with controversial statements on women, developing nations, and pollution.

Geithner, former policy director at the Internaional Monetary Fund, is an internationalist, like the new president. A Dartmouth grad and New York native, he finished high school in Bangkok and has a master’s degree in international economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins.

Word also has it that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a finalist for the secretary of state post, is likely to be offered the position of secretary of commerce. As he has previously served as secretary of energy and ambassador to the UN, this would be a lateral move. Or perhaps a holding spot for later appointment.

Incidentally, for all the vicious maunderings on the far right about Obama as secret anti-semite and enemy of Israel, it is worth noting that Geithner is Jewish. Indeed, Obama’s White House chief of staff, Congressman Rahm Emanuel, volunteered for the Israel Defense Forces during the Gulf War. His father was a member of the Irgun, which many considered a terrorist organization, during Israel’s War of Independence. And Emanuel’s middle name is  …  Israel.

This is what happens when you make someone out to be a “Manchurian Candidate” without actually understanding what that means …

** NATIONAL REPUBLICANS TO WATCH: STEVE POIZNER. The Washington Post’s top political blogger, Chris Cilliza — you MSNBC fans have probably seen him — has just come out with a list of 10 Republicans to watch around the the country. Oddly, it does not include Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee, for reasons I consider to be decidedly non-serious. You all like that term? (I came up with it during the campaign season just past to deal politely with what I consider to be …)

Steve Poizner: Poizner, the Insurance Commissioner of California, has an early head-start on being the Republican nominee for governor in 2010. And, if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) decides not to run, Poizner’s ability to self-fund a campaign coupled with his relatively short time in elected office and his outsider message could make him viable in the general election. As California goes, so goes the country.

Of course, here is how California just went: Barack Obama 61%, John McCain 37%. As longtime Democratic honcho Bob Mulholland just pointed out, Obama won California by over 3 million votes, more than any other Democratic presidential candidate in history, and just over one-third his national margin of victory in the popular vote.

I’ve scouted Poizner — which means, in addition to my usual light opposition research scan, I’ve filmed him in various circumstances and studied the footage — and have an informed view of the state insurance commissioner, who was an official of the McCain campaign. I have also scouted every other potential candidate for governor of California, in both parties, and have considered the 2010 race.

Here are the other names to watch on the WashPost blog list: Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, South Dakota Senator John Thune, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, Virginia Congressman and new House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (who joined Arnold Schwarzenegger’s coterie of governors in signing an international climate change accord), and Mississippi Governor and former Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who served as national campaign co-chair of the McCain campaign and national finance co-chair of the Romney campaign, is not on the list. She is contemplating a run for governor in 2010. As I mentioned, I have scouted her.

** REPUBLICAN BRAND COLLAPSING POST-ELECTION. The new national Gallup Poll — see, we’re not done with polls after all! — taken November 13-16 indicates a further collapse since the election in the Republican Party brand. 34% of American voters have a favorable view of the Republican Party; a whopping 61% have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. That’s the worst rating for the Republican Party since Gallup began measuring it in 1992.

In contrast, the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 55% of American voters; only 39% have an unfavorable view.

Amongst independent voters, the Democrats are viewed favorably by 47%, the Republicans by 32%.

The sharp decline for the Republicans began at the end of 2005, when both parties were viewed about equally favorably.

** OBAMA RAISED OVER $500 MILLION ON THE INTERNET. Here’s a stunning fact, just reported by the Washington Post. Barack Obama raised over a half-billion dollars online. No wonder he doesn’t spend a tremendous amount of time hanging out with big contributors.

In an exclusive interview with The Post, members of the vaunted Triple O, Obama’s online operation, broke down the numbers: 3 million donors made a total of 6.5 million donations online adding up to more than $500 million. Of those 6.5 million donations, 6 million were in increments of $100 or less. The average online donation was $80, and the average Obama donor gave more than once.

“You looked at the money being raised online in the same way that you looked at the crowds who came to the rallies,” Joe Rospars, the 27-year-old director of Obama’s new-media department, told The Post. “You were constantly surprised at the number of people who were coming out to see him,” and, when it came to online donations, “people exceeded our expectations as to what they were willing to do.”

** COMING UP … My new column on Obama, Arnold’s global climate summit, and the future of the climate issue in California and the U.S.

** SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: MASTERSTROKE, MOUSETRAP, OR BOTH? Potential Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Masterstroke or mousetrap? Or both? And for whom?

The political world has been all aflutter for the better part of a week at the prospect — initially portrayed as a done deal — that Hillary Clinton will be Barack Obama’s secretary of state. On the Republican side of the aisle, Henry Kissinger calls her “highly qualified” and Arnold Schwarzenegger dubs it “a great move.” The Clintons’ opponents in the Democratic Party have been restrained in their response. The media loves it, running with endless references to historian Doris Kearns Goodwin’s very fine book on the Lincoln Cabinet, an Obama favorite, “Team of Rivals.” From my Wednesday column.

** OBAMA TODAY. President-elect Barack Obama continues to hold private meetings and discussions in Chicago. He has no public events scheduled. Vice President-elect Joe Biden remains in Delaware the day after celebrating his 66th birthday.

The drama over the potential role of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state continues to play out, with former President Bill Clinton’s various international endeavors and fundraising emerging as an obvious area of concern. The former president has largely opened up his financial books to Obama vetters and has agreed to curtail his foundation activities and get clearance for future ventures.

** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol today. He has no public events scheduled. Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders will try to pass a budget revision before Thanksgiving. California’s chronic budget crisis is spiraling further out of control in the midst of the epic global financial crisis.

** MIAMI BLUES: PALIN AND NATIONAL REPUBLICANS LOOK LIKE THE SAD CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY. From my November 14th column.

** THE AMERICA THAT CAN BE/THE AMERICA THAT HAS BEEN. It was the America That Can Be vs. the America That Has Been. The future won. Yet there is much in the past that is of enduring value.

I must say that this campaign, for all its excitement, its twists and turns, and its thrilling outcome, was something of a disappointment. In Barack Obama and John McCain, we had the two most compelling figures in the two parties, representatives of an emerging set of values and an enduring tradition.From my November 7th Huffington Post column.

** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my October 24th Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading this morning way down in the $48 to $49 per barrel range.

OPEC forecasts a 0.6% decline in global oil consumption in 2009. But sees a 2.5% growth in oil consumption in developing nations.

The drop of $99 per barrel since the record high over the summer comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

73 Responses to “Non-Random Notes”

  1. Wilbur says:

    Hooray! We’re here!

  2. Jonas Blane says:

    That’s another good Obama speech. He gave a lot of props to Schwarzenegger’s conference.

  3. Jonas Blane says:

    I like the new look of the site. What mountains are those?

  4. Capitol Boy says:

    Oh, I like it! I love not seeing all the right-wing stuff.

  5. Capitol Boy says:

    A good speech by Barack. I guess we’re going to see a lot of these video talks from the new PRESIDENT.

  6. Capitol Boy says:

    This is amazing. Barack wouldn’t be the PRESIDENT without the Internet, would he?

    ** OBAMA RAISED OVER $500 MILLION ON THE INTERNET. Here’s a stunning fact, just reported by the Washington Post. Barack Obama raised over a half-billion dollars online. No wonder he doesn’t spend a tremendous amount of time hanging out with big contributors.

  7. Capitol Boy says:

    And I LOVE this!

    They probably don’t get why they’re so unpopular.

    ** REPUBLICAN BRAND COLLAPSING POST-ELECTION. The new national Gallup Poll – see, we’re not done with polls after all! – taken November 13-16 indicates a further collapse since the election in the Republican Party brand. 34% of American voters have a favorable view of the Republican Party; a whopping 61% have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. That’s the worst rating for the Republican Party since Gallup began measuring it in 1992.

  8. carole w says:

    New site with old mountains! Similar to our new administration! Ha!

  9. Bill Bradley says:

    The mountains are timeless. :)

    I always liked the mountains. PJM agreed to an abstracted mountains logo, didn’t deliver.

  10. Bill Bradley says:

    The evidence suggests they do not.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:40 am edit

    And I LOVE this!

    They probably don’t get why they’re so unpopular.

    ** REPUBLICAN BRAND COLLAPSING POST-ELECTION. The new national Gallup Poll – see, we’re not done with polls after all! – taken November 13-16 indicates a further collapse since the election in the Republican Party brand. 34% of American voters have a favorable view of the Republican Party; a whopping 61% have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. That’s the worst rating for the Republican Party since Gallup began measuring it in 1992.

  11. Bill Bradley says:

    He certainly would not be.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:40 am edit

    This is amazing. Barack wouldn’t be the PRESIDENT without the Internet, would he?

    ** OBAMA RAISED OVER $500 MILLION ON THE INTERNET. Here’s a stunning fact, just reported by the Washington Post. Barack Obama raised over a half-billion dollars online. No wonder he doesn’t spend a tremendous amount of time hanging out with big contributors.

  12. Bill Bradley says:

    It looks like a very comfortable medium for him.

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:39 am edit

    A good speech by Barack. I guess we’re going to see a lot of these video talks from the new PRESIDENT.

  13. Bill Bradley says:

    Yes, there is that, isn’t there? :)

    ># Capitol Boy Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:18 am edit

    Oh, I like it! I love not seeing all the right-wing stuff.

  14. Bill Bradley says:

    Those be the Sierra Nevadas …

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:14 am edit

    I like the new look of the site. What mountains are those?

  15. Bill Bradley says:

    TV coverage of the summit jumped with Obama’s speech.

    ># Jonas Blane Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:13 am edit

    That’s another good Obama speech. He gave a lot of props to Schwarzenegger’s conference.

  16. Bill Bradley says:

    Glory be!

    ># Wilbur Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:09 am edit

    Hooray! We’re here!

  17. Jack Aubrey says:

    Oh, I like this. I like all of it.

  18. Jack Aubrey says:

    With the Republicans hung up on Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh, we have the opportunity to get some of the damage done to this country by Bush and Cheney reversed.

    BB:In contrast, the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 55% of American voters; only 39% have an unfavorable view.

    Amongst independent voters, the Democrats are viewed favorably by 47%, the Republicans by 32%.

    The sharp decline for the Republicans began at the end of 2005, when both parties were viewed about equally favorably.

  19. Joe G. says:

    A great look at prop 8 & religion

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/phil-zuckerman/the-religious-support-beh_b_145180.html

    “If God punishes societies that violate his commandments and rewards those that do, this just isn’t apparent by looking at the state of the world today. The sociological fact is that the most irreligious nations right now are among the most successful, humane, moral, and free, while the most religious nations tend to be among the most destitute, chaotic, crime-ridden, and undemocratic.”

  20. Brasky says:

    Back to the future!

    Congratulations!!!

  21. Brasky says:

    A great look at prop 8 & religion

    I disagree. The truth is that Prop 8 won because the opponents dropped the ball. They had years to raise a war chest, put together a crack campaign team and develop a good message.

    They failed on all those counts.

    More importantly, they let the proponents run a campaign on anything BUT taking away the rights of Californians – freedom of religion and what is taught in schools had nothing to do with the initiative, but that’s what was seen and heard on tv.

    Look, for all those armchair political analysts who want to make this about religion, or race, or Obama or a weakening of Californian’s commitment to progressive causes, you’re all ignoring the big elephant in the room – the No on 8 campaign was crap.

  22. marcus waldron says:

    I like your new site. It feels friendlier than the other one. I like those poll numbers, too. :)

  23. Dana says:

    NY Times says Hillary has accepted Secretary of State. Other outlets report Bill Richardson for Commerce and Timohty Geithner for Treasury.

  24. Brasky says:

    “Word also has it that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a finalist for the secretary of state post, is likely to be offered the position of secretary of commerce. As he has previously served as secretary of energy and ambassador to the UN, this would be a lateral move. Or perhaps a holding spot for later appointment.”

    Seems like the “on deck circle” for State, although I’m sure he’d be great at commerce too. At any rate, we can use him in DC.

  25. Brasky says:

    “NATIONAL REPUBLICANS TO WATCH: STEVE POIZNER. ”

    Again the East Coast Media Elite have no clue about what goes on out here in California. Air Force One will be flying-into California for either the 2010 Primary or 2010 General or both – Poizner ain’t going to be able to overcome that. Plus, he ain’t stupid enough to spend his own money on a race he can’t win.

    It cracks me up about how free political pundits are with the money of “self-funded candidates.”

    And any talk about a Republican candidate in 2010 means nothing without the context of Brown, Westly and or Feinstein running. No non-Arnold republican can beat anyone in the field.

  26. Capitol Boy says:

    There is one completely unelectable Democrat for Governor of California: Gavin Newsom. Clueless on crime, blew Prop 8, can’t shut his mouth.

  27. Brasky says:

    CB — Newsom is not even in the running. It’s Brown, Westly and Feinstein.

  28. Ann says:

    Newsom’s a pretty boy who needs to stop staring in his own mirror. lol

    Capitol Boy Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 1:48 pm
    There is one completely unelectable Democrat for Governor of California: Gavin Newsom. Clueless on crime, blew Prop 8, can’t shut his mouth.

  29. Ann says:

    Bill’s logo looks like an Eagles album cover.

  30. marcos leon says:

    Is that an ad on the banner? :)

  31. marcos leon says:

    I love it! You’re talking about your former “Pajamas” associates …

    BB: Incidentally, for all the vicious maunderings on the far right about Obama as secret anti-semite and enemy of Israel, it is worth noting that Geithner is Jewish. Indeed, Obama’s White House chief of staff, Congressman Rahm Emanuel, volunteered for the Israel Defense Forces during the Gulf War. His father was a member of the Irgun, which many considered a terrorist organization, during Israel’s War of Independence. And Emanuel’s middle name is … Israel.

    This is what happens when you make someone out to be a “Manchurian Candidate” without actually understanding what that means …

  32. Len says:

    I was waiting for you to change the blog away from the PJ crowd. I was so tired of their bullshit stuff. They’re actually getting worse.

  33. Len says:

    Whatever happened to that “Hap Hazard” guy?

  34. Sacramento Solon says:

    Hi, kiddies. Got sidetracked…lost my way…or was it just like my parents use to do: move and not tell me???? :-)

  35. Dana says:

    Sacto–me too! Bill sent me an e-mail asking why I posted on the old thread.
    %$&# browser had bookmarked the wrong address!

  36. Sacramento Solon says:

    Dana,

    At least we found our way here. Hope too many others don’t stumble upon the same problems we had!

  37. Brasky says:

    Sorry Sacto — we were planning on telling the Cubs fans last….

  38. Sacramento Solon says:

    Braksy…

    Thanks. Knew I could count on you!!! :-)

  39. four waters says:

    congrats!!!

    (still think the mountains are Sauron’ish)

  40. Brasky says:

    I’m here for ya baby. Let me know of a good place to eat goat in this town and take-out at least one of the little bearded bastards for you. :)

  41. four waters says:

    “Sorry Sacto — we were planning on telling the Cubs fans last….”

    is that just ’cause their already used to punishment?

  42. Sacramento Solon says:

    Brasky Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
    I’m here for ya baby. Let me know of a good place to eat goat in this town and take-out at least one of the little bearded bastards for you.

    —–

    That’s very nice of you. And, since you mention it, I know you can get goat milk ice cream at Taylor’s. If you would like, I can check and see if they can get you any goat meat…my guess would be they could. Should I check???

  43. Brasky says:

    “is that just ’cause their already used to punishment?”

    That’s right. I’m just trying to make him feel at home here.

    I think Sacto likes it here because we were the last political blog to play a night game….

  44. four waters says:

    i think Brasky is looking for a live goat to render himself.
    is the goat’s milk ice cream any good, do you know?

  45. Sacramento Solon says:

    FW,

    For those who like goat milk’s ice cream, it’s an award winner! Truly is.

    I thought a spoonful might help ease the curse, didn’t work. Couldn’t take anymore as it had too much Billy in it for me.

    Now, what did you say Brasky wanted to do with a live goat????

  46. Brasky says:

    Don’t start those kinds of rumors. Hey, what is this, the Yes on 8 Campaign?!

    I just figured if you sacrificed a goat, put it over a slow rotisserie and basted it with garlic, honey and rosemary, serving with grilled vegetables, humus and flat-bread – it might break the Cubs curse. Maybe with some Ouzo to chase it (and of course many broken glasses).

    If my eating can somehow help the Cubbies, I’m ready to do my part.

  47. Sacramento Solon says:

    I think you might be better served by getting the kid a season ticket down the left field line. Perhaps he could do a better job that Bartman!!!! :-)

  48. Brasky says:

    Yeah, it’s on-call for you. Just show-up anytime… :)

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