Former President Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama on Wednesday in battleground Florida.
NOTE: This is a travel day for me, so writing will be intermittent.
** COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO POLLS: SUBSTANTIAL OBAMA LEADS. The new Public Policy Polling surveys of Colorado and New Mexico show Barack Obama with double digit leads over John McCain in these bastions of the Mountain West.
** FIELD POLL: GAY MARRIAGE BAN BEHIND, REDISTRICTING REFORM AHEAD. The new Field Poll of California likely voters shows the Prop 8 same-sex marriage ban trailing, 44% to 49%, and the Prop 11 redistricting reform leading, 45% to 30%.
** DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF. The election hasn’t happened yet, so it’s too soon to start counting electoral votes from the Democrats’ new Western strategy. But the dramatic re-shaping of the electoral battlefield is already clear enough. While the current party leadership deserves credit for a new path to presidential power, much of the new Western strategy has long been championed by former Senator Gary Hart.
The new strategy came into clear focus, fittingly for a party that knew it had to gamble on a new route to the White House, in Las Vegas, in January 2007 over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend. The snow on the famed Las Vegas Strip the day before seemed only a little less unlikely to many in the national media and political establishments than the new moves that were unfolding. … From my new column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From Tuesday’s column.
Governor Charlie Crist backs John McCain in this new positive ad in the battle for Florida.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Des Moines, Iowa, Highland, Indiana, and Chicago, Illinois.
Joe Biden is in Kettering and Lima, Ohio.
John McCain is in Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio.
Sarah Palin is in Latrobe and York, Pennsylvania.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger travels to Columbus, Ohio to campaign with Senator John McCain. The two will hold a late afternoon rally at Nationwide Arena. Schwarzenegger, whose backing in the California primary was key to McCain winning the Republican nomination, is making his quadrennial pilgrimage to the Buckeye State to campaign for the Republican presidential nominee. The former action superstar has substantial interests in the area, including the annual Arnold Classic festival of bodybuilding and fitness. Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my column last Friday.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $66 to $67 per barrel range.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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| Comments (87) |
CHRIS M — I’M CHECKING MY EMAIL NOW!
Damnit — nothing yet. I have the “join us on election night” one.
Thanks, all, for the emotional support. I just talked a co-worker who was on the fence into a No vote. One by one. . .
Prospero — we’re going to beat it…but keep getting those votes!
I donated within 5 minutes of getting the Arizona request from Plouffe.
Maybe I’ll win one of those golden tickets too.
Hot damn!
Bill,
I think you’re right about Proposition 5 being in trouble. I noticed that Barbara Boxer came out against it today. Feinstein, Boxer, Brown, Lockyer, Westly, Garamendi have now all come out against Proposition 5.
I’ve placed my bet on AZ-TV and the Gold Ticket Lotto. Couldn’t resist, even though I’d promised myself I was done for the year.
I think Prop 8 will pass – Latinos and African Americans will turn out, and they will push it over the edge.
I think Obama will have unintended consequences in CA – minority turn out will ensure the passage of Prop 8.
Especially among African Americans – the state NAACP opposes prop 8, but African Americans are the largest group in favor of it.
What new video today?
Man, does this ever get the award for Clueless Comment of the Day?
34. Gaffe Prices:
Boy, you are sure the purveyor of pessimism. Guess what, the best thing that will ever have happened to ubamas, is when he loses.
And he will lose. We’re talking Catholic vote, Hispanic vote deciding this election. The slogan in Hispanic community regardiing Prop 8 is- “Marriage is sacred”.
Also, name a candidate Bill campaigned for who WON the seat?
voting against Prop 8 is a vote for polygamy. Whats next, Sharia law?
Same-sex mariage now, polgamy next. Thanks California supreme court.
Oct 31, 2008 – 2:22 pm
So, Bill, where were you/where are you?
It IS pretty hysterical to read a Prop 8 supporter suggest its defeat would lead to Sharia law. Prop 8 IS the imposition of Sharia law!
The guy’s a fringe type. He doesn’t understand that he is what he fears.
lol
Yep.
>63. marcus waldron:
The guy’s a fringe type. He doesn’t understand that he is what he fears.
Nov 1, 2008 – 3:34 pm
That diatribe is totally incoherent.
The far right is cracking up, politically and emotionally.
>62. Wilbur:
It IS pretty hysterical to read a Prop 8 supporter suggest its defeat would lead to Sharia law. Prop 8 IS the imposition of Sharia law!
Nov 1, 2008 – 10:27 am
I have been in several undisclosed, yet enlightening, locations.
>61. Capitol Boy:
So, Bill, where were you/where are you?
Nov 1, 2008 – 10:05 am
Obama in the New West, McCain with a belated positive closing ad.
>59. Jonas Blane:
What new video today?
Nov 1, 2008 – 9:10 am
Wrong.
>58. John:
I think Prop 8 will pass – Latinos and African Americans will turn out, and they will push it over the edge.
I think Obama will have unintended consequences in CA – minority turn out will ensure the passage of Prop 8.
Especially among African Americans – the state NAACP opposes prop 8, but African Americans are the largest group in favor of it.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:53 pm
I expect McCain to hang on in the state he will continue to represent in the Senate.
>57. Wilbur:
I’ve placed my bet on AZ-TV and the Gold Ticket Lotto. Couldn’t resist, even though I’d promised myself I was done for the year.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:48 pm
Yeah. I might be right about that.
>56. Hattie Caraway:
Bill,
I think you’re right about Proposition 5 being in trouble. I noticed that Barbara Boxer came out against it today. Feinstein, Boxer, Brown, Lockyer, Westly, Garamendi have now all come out against Proposition 5.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:23 pm
Politics is not a two-dimensional game.
>46. Brasky:
“We don’t need to convince the Dems on this one, we need moderate Reeps and Decline To States. They’re supposed to be the Gov’s Peeps.”
Actually, if you convinced all the voters who voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996, Prop 8 be defeated.
Arnold is really dragging his feet on this one.
Oct 31, 2008 – 3:18 pm
Because you aren’t in grade school?
>44. Sacramento Solon:
Just heard our bastard of a governor speaking live in Ohio. Someone want to remind me again why I should vote for Prop 11????
Oct 31, 2008 – 3:08 pm
I understand your emotionalism …
>45. Prospero:
I’d give all the Clinton robocalls in the world for a statement from the Governor. We don’t need to convince the Dems on this one, we need moderate Reeps and Decline To States. They’re supposed to be the Gov’s Peeps.
Best case scenario, he does his McCain thing today, and then comes back to CA and sticks his oar in on the other side.
Ronald Reagan, people! Ronald Reagan did more to fight an anti-gay initiative in 1978 than Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2008! And all he did was issue a letter.
Rant completed. Return to your Merlot.
Oct 31, 2008 – 3:08 pm
ARG is the worst poll in America. And that’s a competitive race …
>37. Brasky:
ARG poll out for Arizona:
McCain 50, Obama 46
Seriously, I wish Obama would put some resources in there and try and steal that. I bet he could raise $15 million in about 24 hours for a push into AZ.
Oct 31, 2008 – 2:44 pm
Time for some reality checks …
>34. Gaffe Prices:
Boy, you are sure the purveyor of pessimism. Guess what, the best thing that will ever have happened to ubamas, is when he loses.
And he will lose. We’re talking Catholic vote, Hispanic vote deciding this election. The slogan in Hispanic community regardiing Prop 8 is- “Marriage is sacred”.
Also, name a candidate Bill campaigned for who WON the seat?
voting against Prop 8 is a vote for polygamy. Whats next, Sharia law?
Same-sex mariage now, polgamy next. Thanks California supreme court.
Oct 31, 2008 – 2:22 pm
See above.
>33. Wilbur:
I read that there’s a Bill Clinton No On 8 robocall out there now.
Your turn, Arnold. Time for the action hero to step up.
Oct 31, 2008 – 2:20 pm
Unless it’s raining, right?
>27. Brasky:
Kid — you’re taking this very well!
I’m going to try and have a traditional American cookout — burgers and dogs, potato salad, etc. Spread a blanket in front of the TV — put around some red, white and blue bunting, etc.
Around 10pm, I’m going to play “One Nation Under a Groove” and set off my fireworks stash.
Oct 31, 2008 – 1:02 pm
I think you’ve seen Obama coming, absent the Hillary thing, all year long.
>26. Kandy Kid:
Solon –I will be travelling back from SF on Election afternoon for a quiet dinner with my politically active, moderate Republican neighbor. New York steaks (Costco), roasted red potatoes and some green vegetable is the most likely quick menu. We will probably drain the 1991 BV Georges de La Tour I recently found at the Natomas BevMo, as it will not wheather the entire Obama Administration. I suspect the medicinal Wild Turkey will flow around the 8:pm poll closing/network projections.
I will most likely stagger home under the supervision of Mrs. Kid…
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:03 pm
Prop 8 is going down. The campaign was righted two weeks ago.
>25. Pat Skipper:
I sure hope that’s right about Prop 8. Institutionalized bigotry is a scary thing in my book.
Oct 31, 2008 – 11:34 am
There is no such thing as a 50-state strategy. That was a tactic to win a DNC election.
There is such a thing as a 30-state strategy.
>23. Pat Skipper:
Got to agree, Chris. People lampooned Dean for his 50 state strategy initially. Looks like it’s paying big dividends.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:25 am
Thanks, Chris. And while Dean has been a good party chairman, there really is no such thing as a 50-state strategy in presidential politics. That’s a slogan.
Howard Dean never thought about the Western strategy until this decade.
>22. Chris M:
Yes, it’s a superb article (with nice video).
Howard Dean also deserves much credit for the Democratic resurgence. As a candidate in ‘03, he made us believe in being Democrats again. As DNC chair, he was a big factor in launching the 50-state strategy that the Obama machine-movement has actualized.
>2. Brasky:
“DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF.”
If you read only one article today, make it this one.
Lawrence Kudlow is a propagandist. He has no more credentials in economics than I do.
>21. Pat Skipper:
Got a good laugh listening to Kudlow on CNBC this morning talking up McCain’s chances, by the way.
When logic gives way to wishful thinking, watch out belooooow.
Oct 31, 2008 – 9:55 am
Poor Hap.
It’s just a ploy by people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
>20. Pat Skipper:
Day Three of the Hap Hazard Silver Bullet Watch!
No “video” yet and, shockingly, no demands by the Obama Campaign to release the “video.”
I’m on pins and needles.
Oct 31, 2008 – 9:53 am
Just to be clear — as should be obvious — I’ve had it on authority from high-level Republican contacts that they have no such tape.
>20. Pat Skipper:
Day Three of the Hap Hazard Silver Bullet Watch!
No “video” yet and, shockingly, no demands by the Obama Campaign to release the “video.”
I’m on pins and needles.
Oct 31, 2008 – 9:53 am
Incidentally, NWN passed 74,000 comments on election eve.
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