Former President Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama on Wednesday in battleground Florida.
NOTE: This is a travel day for me, so writing will be intermittent.
** COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO POLLS: SUBSTANTIAL OBAMA LEADS. The new Public Policy Polling surveys of Colorado and New Mexico show Barack Obama with double digit leads over John McCain in these bastions of the Mountain West.
** FIELD POLL: GAY MARRIAGE BAN BEHIND, REDISTRICTING REFORM AHEAD. The new Field Poll of California likely voters shows the Prop 8 same-sex marriage ban trailing, 44% to 49%, and the Prop 11 redistricting reform leading, 45% to 30%.
** DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF. The election hasn’t happened yet, so it’s too soon to start counting electoral votes from the Democrats’ new Western strategy. But the dramatic re-shaping of the electoral battlefield is already clear enough. While the current party leadership deserves credit for a new path to presidential power, much of the new Western strategy has long been championed by former Senator Gary Hart.
The new strategy came into clear focus, fittingly for a party that knew it had to gamble on a new route to the White House, in Las Vegas, in January 2007 over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend. The snow on the famed Las Vegas Strip the day before seemed only a little less unlikely to many in the national media and political establishments than the new moves that were unfolding. … From my new column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From Tuesday’s column.
Governor Charlie Crist backs John McCain in this new positive ad in the battle for Florida.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Des Moines, Iowa, Highland, Indiana, and Chicago, Illinois.
Joe Biden is in Kettering and Lima, Ohio.
John McCain is in Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio.
Sarah Palin is in Latrobe and York, Pennsylvania.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger travels to Columbus, Ohio to campaign with Senator John McCain. The two will hold a late afternoon rally at Nationwide Arena. Schwarzenegger, whose backing in the California primary was key to McCain winning the Republican nomination, is making his quadrennial pilgrimage to the Buckeye State to campaign for the Republican presidential nominee. The former action superstar has substantial interests in the area, including the annual Arnold Classic festival of bodybuilding and fitness. Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my column last Friday.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $66 to $67 per barrel range.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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“Former President Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama on Wednesday in battleground Florida.”
The two of them together is like the political version of a “supergroup.”
They look good together, but I’m still disappointed that they never went fishin’ together. I guess there’s always Camp David.
“DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF.”
If you read only one article today, make it this one.
It is a good one.
Bill Clinton gives a mean speech about the very good reasons Obama should be President.
I wonder what would have happened if Hillary hadn’t run.
McCain can only run a positive closing spot in Florida?!
Clinton looks good with Obama. Too bad they didn’t team up last year. This election would long have been over.
This is exciting moment.
Early! Clinton is very good with Obama.
Finally a nice McCain ad.
It is nice.
A very early travel day.
>8. Jonas Blane:
Early! Clinton is very good with Obama.
Oct 31, 2008 – 5:07 am
Perhaps.
>7. sergei:
This is exciting moment.
Oct 31, 2008 – 4:41 am
But then Obama would not have had all the adversity to triumph over in the primaries.
>6. Jack Aubrey:
Clinton looks good with Obama. Too bad they didn’t team up last year. This election would long have been over.
Oct 31, 2008 – 1:01 am
I think we’ll see them elsewhere.
>5. Capitol Boy:
McCain can only run a positive closing spot in Florida?!
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:36 am
It would have been an Obama runaway in the primaries.
>4. Capitol Boy:
Bill Clinton gives a mean speech about the very good reasons Obama should be President.
I wonder what would have happened if Hillary hadn’t run.
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:34 am
Thanks very much.
>2. Brasky:
“DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF.”
If you read only one article today, make it this one.
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:23 am
I don’t see either one of them as fishing guys. No patience for BC. O is, well, not a fishing guy.
>1. Brasky:
“Former President Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama on Wednesday in battleground Florida.”
The two of them together is like the political version of a “supergroup.”
They look good together, but I’m still disappointed that they never went fishin’ together. I guess there’s always Camp David.
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:19 am
Why are you all up this fracking early???
Bill/Braskey,
Found the answer to my question about Prop 2…it be way ahead. Tuesday might just turn out to be a good day for both people and animals! Go figure!!!!
——
Question for KK,
What’s on the table for election dinner???
Day Three of the Hap Hazard Silver Bullet Watch!
No “video” yet and, shockingly, no demands by the Obama Campaign to release the “video.”
I’m on pins and needles.
Got a good laugh listening to Kudlow on CNBC this morning talking up McCain’s chances, by the way.
When logic gives way to wishful thinking, watch out belooooow.
Yes, it’s a superb article (with nice video).
Howard Dean also deserves much credit for the Democratic resurgence. As a candidate in ’03, he made us believe in being Democrats again. As DNC chair, he was a big factor in launching the 50-state strategy that the Obama machine-movement has actualized.
>2. Brasky:
“DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF.”
If you read only one article today, make it this one.
Got to agree, Chris. People lampooned Dean for his 50 state strategy initially. Looks like it’s paying big dividends.
“FIELD POLL: GAY MARRIAGE BAN BEHIND, REDISTRICTING REFORM AHEAD. ”
Very happy to see Prop 8 going down — hard to reverse that kind of spread this late.
Prop 11 — could the Cubs finally win????
I sure hope that’s right about Prop 8. Institutionalized bigotry is a scary thing in my book.
Solon –I will be travelling back from SF on Election afternoon for a quiet dinner with my politically active, moderate Republican neighbor. New York steaks (Costco), roasted red potatoes and some green vegetable is the most likely quick menu. We will probably drain the 1991 BV Georges de La Tour I recently found at the Natomas BevMo, as it will not wheather the entire Obama Administration. I suspect the medicinal Wild Turkey will flow around the 8:pm poll closing/network projections.
I will most likely stagger home under the supervision of Mrs. Kid…
Kid — you’re taking this very well!
I’m going to try and have a traditional American cookout — burgers and dogs, potato salad, etc. Spread a blanket in front of the TV — put around some red, white and blue bunting, etc.
Around 10pm, I’m going to play “One Nation Under a Groove” and set off my fireworks stash.
Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:55:04 PM PDT
It seems everybody is jumping aboard the Obama express. The latest: Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan’s former chief of staff, offered his endorsement this morning.
link to vid:
http://www.dailykos.com/
i have not explored this site much… but it seems interesting.
early voting info:
http://www.earlyvoting.net/blog/
From the wiki on Duberstein:
“Among the Board of Directors on which Mr. Duberstein serves are: The Boeing Company, ConocoPhillips, the Fleming Companies, Inc., and The St. Paul Companies, Inc. He also is on the Board of Governors for the American Stock Exchange and NASD”
Goddamn socialist!
okay, here are examples of “tightening polls”
Georgia:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-pres-ge-mvo.php
Indiana:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/in/08-in-pres-ge-mvo.php
disclaimer: i still believe they will likely go to the Reeps.
i have no idea what the McCain pollsters are referring to. (i assume not the above.)
Duberstein and Dave Gergen (also clearly favoring Obama) were close colleagues during the Reagan years. Funny how that bunch looks so moderate compared to Reeps now.
I read that there’s a Bill Clinton No On 8 robocall out there now.
Your turn, Arnold. Time for the action hero to step up.
Boy, you are sure the purveyor of pessimism. Guess what, the best thing that will ever have happened to ubamas, is when he loses.
And he will lose. We’re talking Catholic vote, Hispanic vote deciding this election. The slogan in Hispanic community regardiing Prop 8 is- “Marriage is sacred”.
Also, name a candidate Bill campaigned for who WON the seat?
voting against Prop 8 is a vote for polygamy. Whats next, Sharia law?
Same-sex mariage now, polgamy next. Thanks California supreme court.
Wilber,
Isn’t he back in Ohio pandering???
“I read that there’s a Bill Clinton No On 8 robocall out there now.”
can you link to that? That’s great!
Arnold still hasn’t done anything for Prop 8 and is going to campaign for McCain today. He better do something quick to move back to the center of California politics.
ARG poll out for Arizona:
McCain 50, Obama 46
Seriously, I wish Obama would put some resources in there and try and steal that. I bet he could raise $15 million in about 24 hours for a push into AZ.
DailyKos/Research 2000 Arizona poll:
McCain 48 / Obama 47
COME ON! PLEASE someone put the pinch on us dems to take McCain’s home state.
Brasky, Andrew Sullivan has the text of BC’s No on 8 call on his site;
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
Wish granted:
Obama’s buying Arizona TV time
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Obama_going_up_on_TV_in_AZ_ND_and_GA.html
Thanks Wilbur. Here’s the full text of the Clinton robo:
“This is Bill Clinton calling to ask you to vote NO on Proposition 8 on Tuesday, November 4th. Proposition 8 would use state law to single out one group of Californians to be treated differently — discriminating against members of our family, our friends and our co-workers.
If I know one thing about California, I know that is not what you’re about. That is not what America is about.
Please vote NO on 8. It’s unfair and it’s wrong. Thank you.”
God bless you Bill Clinton!!!
“Wish granted:
Obama’s buying Arizona TV time”
I saw that — he still hasn’t made a direct pitch to his donors asking for some pittance for an AZ push.
If 10% of his donors gave like 10 bucks, we could cause some real trouble there.
KK,
Sounds like a nice meal. Must agree with Brasky, you are handling this quite well. Just hope that you are forced to consume that medicinal Wild Turkey. However, as my beloved Cubs have taught me, I’ll believe it when it happens.
Going light here that evening. Perhaps a little Pinot and an easy meal. Might be more apt to consume quality ice cream than wine.
Just heard our bastard of a governor speaking live in Ohio. Someone want to remind me again why I should vote for Prop 11????
I’d give all the Clinton robocalls in the world for a statement from the Governor. We don’t need to convince the Dems on this one, we need moderate Reeps and Decline To States. They’re supposed to be the Gov’s Peeps.
Best case scenario, he does his McCain thing today, and then comes back to CA and sticks his oar in on the other side.
Ronald Reagan, people! Ronald Reagan did more to fight an anti-gay initiative in 1978 than Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2008! And all he did was issue a letter.
Rant completed. Return to your Merlot.
“We don’t need to convince the Dems on this one, we need moderate Reeps and Decline To States. They’re supposed to be the Gov’s Peeps.”
Actually, if you convinced all the voters who voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996, Prop 8 be defeated.
Arnold is really dragging his feet on this one.
Record 17.3 million Californians registered to vote
A record 17.3 million voters are registered in California, Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported today.
The percentages of Democrats and independent voters have grown since the 2004 presidential election, while the percentage of Republicans in California has dropped to 31.4 percent. GOP registrants made up 34.7 percent of the voter rolls in 2004. Democrats moved to 44.4 percent from 43 percent in 2004. The percentage of those who decline to state a party preference increased to 19.9 percent from 17.7 percent.
http://www.sacbee.com/1095/story/1361313.html
Prospero… hang in there. we’re gunna do this.
i just realized its the night of tricks and treats. do you think they’ll take some leftover tofu?
Brasky, I just got the email from Plouffe asking for money to contest Arizona
:
“Chris –
I’m writing to report that…the latest battleground is a major opportunity:
John McCain’s home state of Arizona — where we go on the air today.”
=========
>36. Brasky:
…
COME ON! PLEASE someone put the pinch on us dems to take McCain’s home state.