This ad promoting a ban on same-sex marriage, featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom exulting that it’s here to stay “whether you like it or not,” rocketed the Yes on 8 side in the polls. But No on 8 finally has effective attacks on the initiative.
Before we get to the hard-fought state ballot initiatives, a few words about the presidential race in California, and what it means in this election and in the future.
Despite some brave statements from Republicans, the nation’s biggest state has been Barack Obama’s even before he wrapped up the Democratic nomination last June. True, he lost the February primary to Hillary Clinton. But polls showed him the Democratic favorite here even before he effectively won the nomination on June 3rd.
Obama’s lead in California is across the board. The Field Poll said today that he is headed for a bigger win here than either of Ronald Reagan’s landslides. How California, and much of the rest of the West, has moved from Republican to Democratic, is the subject of a separate column. But it’s important to note that Obama leads in all age groups and all ethnic groups, with truly massive leads amongst voters under age 35, Latino voters, African American voters, and Asian-American voters. If this election is a predictor for top of the ticket elections here, the Republicans had better find a way to clone the term-limited Arnold Schwarzenegger. And make sure the clone is a global icon, as well. Only trouble is, the party is moving so far to the right, they might not nominate him.
So the suspense of the presidential race here was short-lived. But Obama’s coming big win in the Golden State means that even carefully gerrymandered districts in Congress and the Legislature may not hold back the Democratic tide.
Democratic strategists expect to pick up a few seats in the Legislature. And possibly one or two in Congress. Among those in trouble is longtime right-wing icon Tom McClintock, the termed-out Southern California state senator seeking to hold on to a longtime Republican congressional seat 400 miles to the north, being abandoned by right-wing Congressman John Dolittle, an Abramoff scandal figure.
Democratic polls show retired Air Force Colonel Charlie Brown ahead or tied with McClintock. McClintock’s own pollster today announced that he’s ahead. Of course, I ran into McClintock on election day 2006 at the Beverly Hilton, and he was absolutely convinced – based on his pollster’s work – that he was the next lieutenant governor of California. He wasn’t.
There’ve been some hard-fought initiative battles. The two highest profile have been Prop 8, the attempt to roll back the right to same-sex marriage granted by the Republican-majority California Supreme Court, and Prop 11, the Schwarzenegger-backed initiative to take redistricting out of the Legislature’s hands and give it to a citizen commission.
After former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown changed the frame on Prop 8, by defining it in the ballot description as I just did, prospects for the initiative – which is receiving a huge chunk of its money from mostly out-of-state Mormon Church members – diminished. They went back up again when the Yes on 8 side began airing the ad you see at the top of this column, saying that allowing same-sex marriage would also require the teaching of homosexuality in the schools, and showing a gloating San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom having a Howard Dean-like eruption, saying that gay marriage is here to stay “Whether you like it or not.”
Public polling had shown the initiative losing. But after that twist in the tale, private polls showed a much closer race, and one public poll showed Prop 8 ahead.
That created a shock which probably helped the No on 8 side. More money started flowing in to its coffers, with Apple and Google coming out against the initiative and people like Steven Spielberg and Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie cutting big checks.
The real change on Prop 8 when the somewhat movement style of the campaign became more of a classically “No” on an initiative campaign.
This hard-hitting ad below went right at the claim that same-sex marriage means preaching an alternative lifestyle in the schools. State schools chief Jack O’Connell, speaking directly to camera, called the charge absolutely false.
This very effective ad against Prop 8, featuring state schools chief Jack O’Connell, appears to have arrested a slide.
Then the state’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, weighed in with a very hard-hitting ad that began running a few days ago. Here it is below.
Senator Dianne Feinstein’s very effective ad against Prop 8, the repeal of same-sex marriage rights in California.
These late moves should be enough to defeat Prop 8.
Feinstein also weighs in heavily, along with Schwarzenegger and Brown, on Prop 5, a controversial measure to change the state’s drug laws. Feinstein has called it a “drug dealer’s bill of rights,” and today every living governor of California, Republican and Democrat, came together to denounce it. That’s Schwarzengger, Gray Davis, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, and Jerry Brown, now the state’s attorney general.
Prop 5′s prospects are not good.
While California is a center-left state, it’s also a tough-on-crime state. Now if only they can get the prison system to work properly.
Social conservatives have a better shot on Prop 4, the perennial attempt to require parental notification on teen abortions. I think Californians are of two minds about this. Certainly this is something a parent should know. On the other hand, there are quite a few dysfunctional families.
Prop 1A, high speed rail bonds, is an idea that has been popular in the past, but has been put off as other seemingly more pressing needs in infrastructure and education have come to the fore. Now it may just be at the wrong time, in the midst of a pronounced economic slump.
Prop 7 is a plan to accelerate California’s already strong requirements for renewable energy use. It’s opposed both by the utilities and a great many environmentalists, for different reasons, and looks to be going down.
Prop 10 is Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens’ attempt to promote bonds for alternative fuel use. It so happens he’s in that business now. This looks self-interested, but should be closer.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and good government reformers are pushing hard with Prop 11 to take redistricting out of the politicians’ hands.
Then there’s Prop 11, which I’ve written about a lot, Schwarzenegger’s joint venture with reformers like Common Cause and the League of Women Voters to change the redistricting process.
The current system encourages hyperpartisanship, as both parties seek to create the safest seats possible for core party members. And then folks wonder why the Legislature lacks the ability to work together.
Schwarzenegger seemed confident yesterday about Prop 11′s prospects, even though these initiatives – including one he sponsored in 2005 – has always been defeated in the past.
But this time, as he noted, there are some 2300 organizations around the state that have endorsed. His side is running good ads and the opposition looks to be in some disarray.
And the tracking polls for Prop 11 are good.
So there could be some history coming out of California on election night. Not only the landslide for Obama, which I suspect will be a real marker for top of the ticket races in the Golden State, but quite likely historic affirmations for same-sex marriage and for reform of the way that redistricting is done.
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Ooh, more ads. That’s a good one where they have the Newsom guy ranting away about gay marriage.
Bill, I want to trust you on this one. I still haven’t seen the Feinstein ad run on TV anywhere, but think it’s the best one we’ve got so far.
I’m not convinced the difference between the Survey USA result and the PPIC/Field results tells us as much about voter behavior as they do about polling methodologies.
Everyone I know is working like mad to defeat this, but I don’t know millions of people. Wish I did.
Still, I have to admit you tend to be more right in your judgments than not (and you’re not shy about mentioning it).
Fingers crossed.
O’Connell is good on TV.
Feinstein sounds like she cares. Wasn’t she Mayor of San Francisco?
Prospero,
Ad just ran on Channel 10 in Sacramento…and it’s not the first time I’ve viewed it. DiFi does quite a good job.
She *was!*
And has the distinction of being the first person in the world to veto a proposal to give legal rights to same-sex couples (history’s first domestic partnership ordinance, in 1985).
Hated her then. Not so much, these days.
Jerry Brown has no solutions to crime; he failed as Mayor of Oakland and has had little if any success as AG. But now he wants to kill Prop. 5, which would reduce crime and save the state money. If he and his fellow Republicrats hadn’t intervened to kill the earlier reform of the three strikes law, the state would have saved money and reduced prison overcrowding.
Apparently Brown’s ambition and desire to be governor and appear to be a tough guy trump any common sense he may have had in the past. VOTE YES on Prop 5 and VOTE NO on Prop 6 & 9. And vote No on Jerry Brown.
Feinstein and her war profiteer husband have done more damage to the state than any of the drug dealers and pot smokers she wants to keep locked up. She’s despicable.
Has Field continued sampling on the propositions? Are there some results under embargo, to be dripped out tomorrow? That’s what I took this morning’s tease about this upcoming column to mean… or was that just another ASS-U-ME event?
It looks like things are pretty darn well in hand in our California.
A very good round-up — thanks Bill.
Have you talked to the Charlie Brown campaign about their polling? I wouldn’t trust McClintock farther than I could throw him.
Oh, and my man Paul Burton, crime went down in Oakland under Jerry Brown, who’s a great AG. Even though Oakland’s the dumping ground for parolees. It went up constantly there under the old time mayors. The place is falling apart again under Right On Ron Dellums.
7. Paul Burton:
Jerry Brown has no solutions to crime; he failed as Mayor of Oakland and has had little if any success as AG.
Prospero,
don’t know ’bout the rest of the state, but it ran non-stop last night.
In response to #7 and #11, here is the crazy Pooch ad on Jerry Brown: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IMEwYIx74U
I couldn’t find the original longer director’s cut that was even crazier than this.
Anything on Prop 2?
“Anything on Prop 2?”
Who would vote against cute baby farm animals?
Many people…too many people.
I think the high turnout among young voters keeps 2 in positive territory.
Hope so…
I just posted on the other thread the CBS poll showing Obama up by 11 pts. If I could get time-off, I’d volunteer to do GOTV in Arizona…
It will be great if same-sex marriage and redistricting reform both get the nod.
I think both will lose. Prop 8 because it seems to be trending that way and Prop 11…well, lets just say that if the Cubs went undefeated in the regular season, I still would bet against them because the gravity of history always pulls them down.
Sorry — I’m not the one who pissed off the Greek with the goat.
Brasky,
I often have trouble with YouTube videos, but I can’t get the crazy Pooch one to play at all. I don’t know whether to feel fortunate or cheated.
POOCH! lol
Brasky,
I will get you for Comment #21. Trust me, you will pay a price. You’re spot on, but you will pay a price!!!!
I have tracking numbers on both initiatives.
>21. Brasky:
I think both will lose. Prop 8 because it seems to be trending that way and Prop 11…well, lets just say that if the Cubs went undefeated in the regular season, I still would bet against them because the gravity of history always pulls them down.
Sorry — I’m not the one who pissed off the Greek with the goat.
Oct 30, 2008 – 6:55 pm
Democratic tracking polls, as I mentioned.
>10. Brasky:
A very good round-up — thanks Bill.
Have you talked to the Charlie Brown campaign about their polling? I wouldn’t trust McClintock farther than I could throw him.
Oct 30, 2008 – 4:36 pm
Not a clue.
>14. Sacramento Solon:
Anything on Prop 2?
Oct 30, 2008 – 5:12 pm
Bill,
Thank you.
Charlie is in a tight race but looks pretty positive, which — considering the district — is amazing.
anyone interested in any of the Congressional or down tix races in northern CA is welcome to contact me directly if they would like to lend a hand. all hands welcome!
That would be awesome to get rid of that wingnut.
The tease was about what I know, not what Field knows.
>8. Wilbur:
Has Field continued sampling on the propositions? Are there some results under embargo, to be dripped out tomorrow? That’s what I took this morning’s tease about this upcoming column to mean… or was that just another ASS-U-ME event?
Oct 30, 2008 – 4:23 pm
The Feinstein ad is in or going into heavy rotation, as the O’Connell ad was.
>2. Prospero:
Bill, I want to trust you on this one. I still haven’t seen the Feinstein ad run on TV anywhere, but think it’s the best one we’ve got so far.
Prop 11 is up in tracking. Its potential problem is that it’s at the end of a ballot that is going to have lot of no votes coming earlier.
>21. Brasky:
I think both will lose. Prop 8 because it seems to be trending that way and Prop 11…well, lets just say that if the Cubs went undefeated in the regular season, I still would bet against them because the gravity of history always pulls them down.
Sorry — I’m not the one who pissed off the Greek with the goat.
Oct 30, 2008 – 6:55 pm
… Incidentally, in 2005, the redistricting initiative was way behind long before now.
“Prop 11 is up in tracking. Its potential problem is that it’s at the end of a ballot that is going to have lot of no votes coming earlier.”
agreed. I think ballot position is going to be a problem for 11.
“… Incidentally, in 2005, the redistricting initiative was way behind long before now.”
I seem to remember something about that…
I do think that the pool of voters being drawn from this time is significantly larger and I’m still not convinced that first time and infrequent voters are going to pull the trigger on Prop 11.
But hey, you’d think the Cubs would eventually win the big one?
Sorry Solon — the Cubs are very much like one of my sport franchises that seems destined to play the perennial “goat.”
I haven’t watched any of the ads yet, but I would have thought the No on 8 campaign could have used an economic angle to appeal to undecideds. Something along the lines of promoting stable, tax-paying families who strengthen communities. Voting No on 8 means fewer people on welfare, fewer home foreclosures, etc.
“I haven’t watched any of the ads yet, but I would have thought the No on 8 campaign could have used an economic angle to appeal to undecideds. Something along the lines of promoting stable, tax-paying families who strengthen communities. Voting No on 8 means fewer people on welfare, fewer home foreclosures, etc.”
I think fairness trumps that. The biotech industry did issue a statement that Prop 8 would cause companies to move to MA.
Someone will have to explain the appeal of Tom McC. For a person who claims to dislike he sure has spent a lot of time (like his adult life) working for an institution he claims to abhor.
I think Prop 8 will pass – Latinos and African Americans will turn out, and they will push it over the edge.
I think Obama will have unintended consequences in CA – minority turn out will ensure the passage of Prop 8.
Especially among African Americans – the state NAACP opposes prop 8, but African Americans are the largest group in favor of it.
Wrong.
Wrong.
In stereo.
>39. John:
I think Prop 8 will pass – Latinos and African Americans will turn out, and they will push it over the edge.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:51 pm
He’s an ideologue who appeals to ideologues.
Explain the appeal of Al Sharpton.
Same deal.
>38. Elroy El:
Someone will have to explain the appeal of Tom McC. For a person who claims to dislike he sure has spent a lot of time (like his adult life) working for an institution he claims to abhor.
Oct 31, 2008 – 6:17 pm
Er, yeah.
>37. Brasky:
“I haven’t watched any of the ads yet, but I would have thought the No on 8 campaign could have used an economic angle to appeal to undecideds. Something along the lines of promoting stable, tax-paying families who strengthen communities. Voting No on 8 means fewer people on welfare, fewer home foreclosures, etc.”
I think fairness trumps that. The biotech industry did issue a statement that Prop 8 would cause companies to move to MA.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:43 am
Well, you might want to watch the TV ads before making that assessment.
>36. Chris M:
I haven’t watched any of the ads yet, but I would have thought the No on 8 campaign could have used an economic angle to appeal to undecideds. Something along the lines of promoting stable, tax-paying families who strengthen communities. Voting No on 8 means fewer people on welfare, fewer home foreclosures, etc.
Oct 31, 2008 – 10:21 am
Are you aware of the No on 11 campaign?
>35. Brasky:
“Prop 11 is up in tracking. Its potential problem is that it’s at the end of a ballot that is going to have lot of no votes coming earlier.”
agreed. I think ballot position is going to be a problem for 11.
“… Incidentally, in 2005, the redistricting initiative was way behind long before now.”
I seem to remember something about that…
I do think that the pool of voters being drawn from this time is significantly larger and I’m still not convinced that first time and infrequent voters are going to pull the trigger on Prop 11.
But hey, you’d think the Cubs would eventually win the big one?
Sorry Solon — the Cubs are very much like one of my sport franchises that seems destined to play the perennial “goat.”
Oct 31, 2008 – 12:08 am
Incidentally, NWN passed 74,000 comments on election eve.