Barack Obama’s brand new attack ad cites John McCain’s past statements of economic ignorance, closing out with his saying he may have to rely on his vice president, then a shot of a winking Sarah Palin.
** END OF DAY. Well, not really. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama hit Kississimee (I’m not making that up, BC fans), Florida at 11 PM tonight for a big rally tuned to the late news cycle.
Anyway, let’s see. John McCain attacked Obama as a socialist who is pro-Iran, pro-PLO (er, they’re US allies now), and pro-something else that escapes me at the moment. Obama had his big 30-minute “infomercial” on multiple TV nets. It hasn’t aired yet in much of the country, but I’ve seen it.
It’s good, beautifully produced, well-sequenced beginning with Obama speaking about the deep struggles of regular Americans, with the the program focusing in on him talking with representative folks and them talking about their own lives. Then, midway through, sequeing into Obama and his life, the struggles of his mixed family, and encomiums to Obama from very popular political leaders in battleground states. Then, at the 25-minute point, the show flipped from production to live, with Obama wrapping up a speech in a packed arena in Florida.
What the program did is recall the principal tenets of the Kennedy campaigns of the 1960s. Identify with people in trouble, explain what you’ll do, and present it all with a build to images of excellence.
Excellence, incidentally, is elite. It is not elitist.
Let’s see, the other stuff in California. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared at a rally outside the state Capitol with a panoply of political figures from both parties and various reform leaders, all in support of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative. Prop 11 picked up the endorsement of Democratic state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. Other statewide Dems are neutral. Schwarzenegger expresssed more than a little cautious optimism about this initiative.
I’ll run down the other California initiatives tomorrow. But things are looking better for No on 8, the campaign to defend the right of same-sex marriage. Bad for Prop 5, a decriminilization measure. Questionable for big money measures on high-speed rail – which Schwarzenegger is backing – and two alterntive energy measures opposed by many enviros.
Also in trouble, longtime right-wing icon Tom McClintock, the termed-out Southern California state senator seeking to hold on to a longtime Republican congressional seat 400 miles to the north, being abandoned by right-wing Congressman John Dolittle, an Abramoff scandal figure.
** ARIZONA POLL: MCCAIN BY 2. The brand new Arizona State University poll of Arizona, John McCain’s home state, shows a very close race. It’s McCain 46%, Barack Obama 44%. McCain has started running robocalls in his own state, and other forms of advertising may be close behind.
** TIME MAGAZINE/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS: OBAMA UP IN COLORADO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, DOWN IN MISSOURI AND GEORGIA. The new Time/CNN poll of several battleground states contains mostly good news for Barack Obama. He has big leads in two longtime red states, Colorado and Virginia, a smaller lead in Florida, and trails John McCain narrowly in Missouri, a longtime battleground state, and Georgia, a brand new battleground state.
Obama leads Colorado, 53-45. Obama leads Virginia, 53-44. Obama leads Florida, 51-47. McCain leads Missouri, 50-48. And McCain leads Georgia, 52-47. President Bush won all five of those states in his close two elections.
In Colorado, over-50 voters are moving from McCain to Obama.
** MARIST POLLS: BIG OBAMA LEAD IN PENNSLVANIA, SMALL LEAD IN OHIO. In the new Marist Polls of battlegrounds Pennsylvania – long identified as a must takeaway state for John McCain – and Ohio, Barack Obama is in the lead. In Pennsylvania, its Obama, 54-41 amongst likely voters. In Ohio, it’s Obama, 48-45.
** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL: EARLY VOTE SKEWING OBAMA. The new ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that around 60% of early voters have gone for Barack Obama. This is the opposite of what happened in 2000 and 2004, when an equivalent proportion went with President Bush.
** MCCAIN BURNED BY THE ASSOCIATION GAME. One of the elements in the “Manchurian candidate” fantasy about the Barack Obama spun by elements of the far right is that he is supposedly close to a dangerous Palestinian operative named Rashid Khalidi. Some say he was a top aide to Yasser Arafat, though top reporters say no. (Incidentally, Arafat became an ally of the US.) What we do know is that he is an Ivy League professor.
John McCain’s campaign is pushing the association with Obama. But it turns out that McCain himself actually funded Khalidi’s organization.
In the 1990s, a big foundation chaired by McCain gave over half a million dollars to Khalidi’s group.
The name of the McCain-chaired foundation providing such largesse to a purportedly dangerous guy? The International Republican Institute.
** BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS: OBAMA UP IN SIX STATES, TIED IN TWO STATES. The new AP poll of eight battleground states – including six won by President Bush and two won by John Kerry – show Barack Obama with sizable leads in four states won President Bush and huge leads in two state that John McCain hoped to take away from the Democrats.
Obama has significant leads over McCain in four red states won by President Bush. He’s up 12 in Nevada, 9 in Colorado, 7 in Virginia, and 7 in Ohio. Obama and McCain are tied in two other red states, Florida and North Carolina.
Obama has huge leads in two states McCain has tried very hard to take away, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Obama is up 12 in Pennsylvania, where the Republican ticket practically found a home away from home, and a whopping 18 in New Hampshire, the state which jump-started McCain’s career in presidential politics in 2000, and revived it in 2008.
** QUINNIPIAC SWING STATE POLLS: OBAMA WELL UP IN PENNSYLVANIA AND OHIO, BARELY IN FLORIDA. The new Quinnipiac polls of those swing states show John McCain making up some late ground on Barack Obama, but still well behind in two out of three. No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three big states.
Obama leads McCain in Pennsylvania, 53-41, Ohio, 51-42, and Florida, barely, 47-45. McCain’s improvement, which amounts to a few points in each state, is due to winning back some white voters. This is why Obama is campaigning with Bill Clinton in Florida.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From yesterday’s column.
John McCain’s brand new attack ad hits Barack Obama as a show horse, an inexperienced tax & spender who is “Not ready – yet.” Apparently aimed at voters who like Obama but aren’t sure.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Raleigh, North Carolina and and Sunrise and Kissimmee, Florida. Obama speaks live as part of a 30-minute TV special on many TV nets tonight. He’s joined in Kississimee, Florida, after the special, by Bill Clinton.
Joe Biden is in Jupiter and Sunrise, Florida.
Michelle Obama is in Rocky Mount and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Miami, Tampa, and Palm Beach, Florida.
Sarah Palin is in Toledo, Bowling Green, and Chillicothe, Ohio and Jeffersonville, Indiana.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigns for the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative today. He has a noon event at the state Capitol where he is joined by former elected officials of both political parties including former Senator Dede Alpert, former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte, former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, former Assemblywoman Tricia Hunter and former Assemblyman Bob Pacheco.
This afternoon, he’s in the San Francisco Bay Area at the Concord Chamber of Commerce, joined by Keith McMahon, President & CEO of the Concord Chamber of Commerce, Jeannine English, State President of AARP California, Jim Wunderman, President & CEO of the Bay Area Council and Derek Cressman, Western States Regional Director of Common Cause
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $66 to $67 per barrel range.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. That didn’t arrest the slide. Yesterday’s stock market jump in the US may have, as oil is up a few dollars over yesterday’s trading, with some believing the global economic slump may be less disastrous.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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Obama’s new ad is clever.
McCain’s new ad is less irritating than most of his others.
I like Barack’s ad but there’s no voice-over, just music and words and pictures. I hope people will pay attention to it.
I brought myself to watch McCain’s spot. Before he was evil. Now he’s not ready YET. The hypocrisy just rises off that campaign like stink off shit.
McCain’s ad is actually good — if it was running two months ago.
Now it just looks like a mishmash of warmed left-overs from previous message attempts.
These guys are adrift and have been for some time. McCain can’t manage his own campaign (don’t forget he already bankrupted it once) and he can’t run the country. He’s the show horse, not a leader. Time to put him to pasture.
I like these polls. Not sure about Obama’s new ad. It may be too cute.
Great line.
BB:For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning.
I agree with Brasky about Johnny Mac’s new ad. The man slept through reveille.
Obama’s ad is a little too cute.
I think the Obama ad is very smart. Folks (especially in swing states) are being crushed by harsh, negative TV ads. Obama is able to launch one last salvo without turning anyone off.
Remember — the battle is only for the undecideds who are left. Everyone else is locked-in and tuned-out. The undecideds should be watching that ad and it’s a stark contrast to McCain’s ad — it’s like a 30 second new age relaxation tape.
Good move.
Spit-take moment of the morning – the LA Times reports that a jury has been selected in the Michael Carona corruption trial. One of the jurors? A man you used to play the Mad Hatter at Disneyland.
Jury of peers?
LOL
agree w/ Brasky. Obama ad is VERY solid.
they couldn’t be any more negatively direct about Palin, but this most certainly made the point.
and “cute” is the point, actually — cute, not enough substance.
and continues to play within their narrative of McCain making erratic decisions.
i give it a strong A
i’m confused about the McCain “yet” tactic. seems very out of character with the rest of the campaign to date. i wonder where it came from. far more nuanced. and again (in agreement w/ Brasky) would have been much more effective 2-3 months ago. now, not so much.
I think both ads are good. McCain is trying to go after swing voters who are attracted to Obama. He can’t just say he’s evil because he’ll lose them.
maybe. some.
but like so much… lotsa days late, lotsa dollars short.
it IS a good ad – at the wrong time.
if you are a numbers geek and have not looked in on ElectoralVote.com this morning, you may find his 2004/2008 comparison graph interesting.
What does it say?
I think that’s right.
>13. marcus waldron:
I think both ads are good. McCain is trying to go after swing voters who are attracted to Obama. He can’t just say he’s evil because he’ll lose them.
Oct 29, 2008 – 10:00 am
I wonder if people will ignore an ad without talking.
>12. four waters:
agree w/ Brasky. Obama ad is VERY solid.
they couldn’t be any more negatively direct about Palin, but this most certainly made the point.
and “cute” is the point, actually — cute, not enough substance.
and continues to play within their narrative of McCain making erratic decisions.
i give it a strong A
i’m confused about the McCain “yet” tactic. seems very out of character with the rest of the campaign to date. i wonder where it came from. far more nuanced. and again (in agreement w/ Brasky) would have been much more effective 2-3 months ago. now, not so much.
Oct 29, 2008 – 9:59 am
Quite a crew there.
>11. Brasky:
Spit-take moment of the morning – the LA Times reports that a jury has been selected in the Michael Carona corruption trial. One of the jurors? A man you used to play the Mad Hatter at Disneyland.
Jury of peers?
LOL
Oct 29, 2008 – 9:44 am
Perhaps.
>9. Jack Aubrey:
Obama’s ad is a little too cute.
Oct 29, 2008 – 9:38 am
Very good line!
>8. Jack Aubrey:
I agree with Brasky about Johnny Mac’s new ad. The man slept through reveille.
Oct 29, 2008 – 9:37 am
They’re trying to close it up. It is closing up, some.
>5. Brasky:
McCain’s ad is actually good — if it was running two months ago.
Now it just looks like a mishmash of warmed left-overs from previous message attempts.
These guys are adrift and have been for some time. McCain can’t manage his own campaign (don’t forget he already bankrupted it once) and he can’t run the country. He’s the show horse, not a leader. Time to put him to pasture.
Oct 29, 2008 – 9:30 am
lots of people watch television, muting ads — so yes that’s an issue.
on the other hand the quiet aids the dramatic tone, so its a tradeoff.
in getting attention, you need to standout. in our culture, silence does (if effectively used).
“I wonder if people will ignore an ad without talking.”
I would say yes a week ago.
Now I think the only people who can possibly stand another campaign ad are the 2-6% of true undecideds. They will watch.
Since the ad will likely run on the 24 News Beast, with nonstop talk, I think the break will cause people to look up.
“lots of people watch television, muting ads — so yes that’s an issue.”
Actually, the Obama ad plays well with the sound off — another bonus for folks who are sick of the campaign.
“MCCAIN BURNED BY THE ASSOCIATION GAME”
McCain has been around so long, he’s always going to be behind in the association game.
He’s the Kevin Bacon of politics…
I bet you could link McCain to President Taft in less than 4 people.
Actually, the Obama ad plays well with the sound off — another bonus for folks who are sick of the campaign.
i think the Obama ad effectively uses the silence.
its a very good ad.
“Barack Obama spun by elements of the far right is that he is supposedly close to a dangerous Palestinian operative named Rashid Khalid”
maybe he’s like Henry Spivey… he’s really both Rashid Khalid AND Barack Obama.
lol
26. Brasky:
“MCCAIN BURNED BY THE ASSOCIATION GAME”
McCain has been around so long, he’s always going to be behind in the association game.
He’s the Kevin Bacon of politics…
I bet you could link McCain to President Taft in less than 4 people.
Oct 29, 2008 – 10:29 am
“What does it say?”
in a nutshell, that the numbers a week out from the election are almost exactly the way the state will vote out. but the graph is interesting for more than that, i thought.
No funnier president than Taft…
Arnold rather quietly released his picks on the props today, including a “No” on 8.
http://www.sacbee.com/749/story/1353838.html
I would have hoped for a little less timidity.
Well, at the same time that Arnold has proven his have shriveled, Bill Lockyer has shown that it still has a pair as he comes out and endorses Prop 11.
I am concerned that Obama’s 1/2 hour ads may be too much for voters nearing saturation. The election is really Obama’s to loose. Why not save the money and keep MacPain’s attack adds limited to the same old rehash. Don’t give MacPain anything new to play with. If O’bama is determined to go on air, he needs keep it completely positive and praise all segments of America for our patriotism, courage. His ½ hour of paid time will result in free time for MacPain. I just do not see the upside.
I believe that the tape is much more radioactive than any news that McCain once was involved in an organization that gave money for opinion polling in Palestine by a Khalidi front organization. Obama’s campaign would be insisting on its release if it only depicted the Obama and Michelle at a nice dinner. Instead, there is dead silence.
I am thinking it more likely that it shows Obama and his cheerful wife sitting together with Ayers and Dohrn, whom we are supposed to believe are little more than strangers to Barack, and it also shows Obama toasting his friend and colleague with rousing statements such as, “Israel has no right to occupy Palestine” and decrying the “genocide” against the Palestinians by those horrible Israelis…
Solon, Lockyer has always had a pair more than Arnold.
Give it up, Hap. Your stuff is ridiculous.
35. Hap Hazard:
I believe that the tape is much more radioactive than any news that McCain once was involved in an organization that gave money for opinion polling in Palestine by a Khalidi front organization. Obama’s campaign would be insisting on its release if it only depicted the Obama and Michelle at a nice dinner. Instead, there is dead silence.
I am thinking it more likely that it shows Obama and his cheerful wife sitting together with Ayers and Dohrn, whom we are supposed to believe are little more than strangers to Barack, and it also shows Obama toasting his friend and colleague with rousing statements such as, “Israel has no right to occupy Palestine” and decrying the “genocide” against the Palestinians by those horrible Israelis…
Oct 29, 2008 – 1:49 pm
Hap, your ability to divine what is shown on a rumored tape which you haven’t seen is very impressive. Are you sure Willie Horton wasn’t there too?
There’s no fairness doctrine. McCain doesn’t get any air time with Barack buying the infomercials.
>34. tom the 3L:
I am concerned that Obama’s 1/2 hour ads may be too much for voters nearing saturation. The election is really Obama’s to loose. Why not save the money and keep MacPain’s attack adds limited to the same old rehash. Don’t give MacPain anything new to play with. If O’bama is determined to go on air, he needs keep it completely positive and praise all segments of America for our patriotism, courage. His ½ hour of paid time will result in free time for MacPain. I just do not see the upside.
Oct 29, 2008 – 1:42 pm
Who’s Henry Spivey?
28. four waters:
“Barack Obama spun by elements of the far right is that he is supposedly close to a dangerous Palestinian operative named Rashid Khalid”
maybe he’s like Henry Spivey… he’s really both Rashid Khalid AND Barack Obama.
Oct 29, 2008 – 10:39 am
38. Wilbur — Well Wilbur, at least I am still willing to speculate on something that clearly calls for speculation. Your professional training doesn’t cause you to attach any suspicion to the silence from Obama on this issue? Just wondering.
“There’s no fairness doctrine. McCain doesn’t get any air time with Barack buying the infomercials.”
Correct.
I wasn’t in favor of the infomercials when they were announced, but the campaign is in a much stronger positon. He’s trying to reassure undecideds. Infomercials can do that, but more attack ads would just get blurred with the rest.
“Who’s Henry Spivey”
some character on an NBC show that I don’t watch — 15 seconds of google time lost.
Television stations will all want to know how Mac is reacting to any attacks leveled at him. Every station will likely include a clip of the Mac camp response. He will get free television time to level counter attacks. The media loves a good fight and they are not averse to creating the conflict or facilitating a good story…
Hap,
You have been playing the same tune for a couple months. It has gotten old.
Your man can’t win on the issues becuase he’s devoid of answers. He slected someone as his running mate who is totally unqualified. Both will be toast on Tuesday.
You seem to enjoy the game of gutter politics. That’s a shame as the Hap who use to post here seemed like a better person than that.
Perhaps we came begin your rehabilitation on Wednesday.
“Wilbur — Well Wilbur, at least I am still willing to speculate on something that clearly calls for speculation. Your professional training doesn’t cause you to attach any suspicion to the silence from Obama on this issue? Just wondering.”
Jesus Hap, are you channeling Joe McCarthy?
Why doesn’t McCain issue a denial that he wasn’t brainwashed by the Chinese and returned to America to become the President?
Dude – your meds need to be adjusted.
Hap, I believe that wise candidates and wise leaders do not engage with the other side’s yaposphere, nor do they start to channel that yaposphere, which unfortunately in their desperation the McCain camp have done. Very unsuccessfully.
So no, I would not advise answering the “when did you stop beating your wife” questions with anything more than a snort of well-deserved derision.
woops, should read “nor do they start to channel their own side’s yaposphere.”
“There’s no fairness doctrine. McCain doesn’t get any air time with Barack buying the infomercials.”
i don’t like ‘em much, but these be the rules of engagement at this time. when did the expectation of “fair” get added to the equation.
would it have been different if the situation was inverted?
the rules are only good if you’re part of the crew that made them; if you’re not, you’re expected to be more gracious? screw that.
Henry Spivey … “My Own Worst Enemy”
an utterly improbable circumstance, somewhat Bond’esque, with Christian Slater
“Television stations will all want to know how Mac is reacting to any attacks leveled at him. ”
If the purpose of the 30 minutes is to level attacks, the opportunity is lost. It should be a positive assessment of what Obama will do.
Anything McCain says will sound like more of the same.
McCain’s campaign has shown that he has ZERO leadership. Just the pick of Palin and the “suspense” of the campaign show that they guy is out to lunch. And his campaign “message” is about as consistent as a Magic 8 Ball.
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“REAL Republican”
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“NOT Bush”
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“Deregulation”
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“Regulation”
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“Mavrick!”
SHAKE…SHAKE…SHAKE…
“Read to lead.”