Barack Obama’s brand new attack ad cites John McCain’s past statements of economic ignorance, closing out with his saying he may have to rely on his vice president, then a shot of a winking Sarah Palin.
** END OF DAY. Well, not really. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama hit Kississimee (I’m not making that up, BC fans), Florida at 11 PM tonight for a big rally tuned to the late news cycle.
Anyway, let’s see. John McCain attacked Obama as a socialist who is pro-Iran, pro-PLO (er, they’re US allies now), and pro-something else that escapes me at the moment. Obama had his big 30-minute “infomercial” on multiple TV nets. It hasn’t aired yet in much of the country, but I’ve seen it.
It’s good, beautifully produced, well-sequenced beginning with Obama speaking about the deep struggles of regular Americans, with the the program focusing in on him talking with representative folks and them talking about their own lives. Then, midway through, sequeing into Obama and his life, the struggles of his mixed family, and encomiums to Obama from very popular political leaders in battleground states. Then, at the 25-minute point, the show flipped from production to live, with Obama wrapping up a speech in a packed arena in Florida.
What the program did is recall the principal tenets of the Kennedy campaigns of the 1960s. Identify with people in trouble, explain what you’ll do, and present it all with a build to images of excellence.
Excellence, incidentally, is elite. It is not elitist.
Let’s see, the other stuff in California. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared at a rally outside the state Capitol with a panoply of political figures from both parties and various reform leaders, all in support of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative. Prop 11 picked up the endorsement of Democratic state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. Other statewide Dems are neutral. Schwarzenegger expresssed more than a little cautious optimism about this initiative.
I’ll run down the other California initiatives tomorrow. But things are looking better for No on 8, the campaign to defend the right of same-sex marriage. Bad for Prop 5, a decriminilization measure. Questionable for big money measures on high-speed rail – which Schwarzenegger is backing – and two alterntive energy measures opposed by many enviros.
Also in trouble, longtime right-wing icon Tom McClintock, the termed-out Southern California state senator seeking to hold on to a longtime Republican congressional seat 400 miles to the north, being abandoned by right-wing Congressman John Dolittle, an Abramoff scandal figure.
** ARIZONA POLL: MCCAIN BY 2. The brand new Arizona State University poll of Arizona, John McCain’s home state, shows a very close race. It’s McCain 46%, Barack Obama 44%. McCain has started running robocalls in his own state, and other forms of advertising may be close behind.
** TIME MAGAZINE/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS: OBAMA UP IN COLORADO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, DOWN IN MISSOURI AND GEORGIA. The new Time/CNN poll of several battleground states contains mostly good news for Barack Obama. He has big leads in two longtime red states, Colorado and Virginia, a smaller lead in Florida, and trails John McCain narrowly in Missouri, a longtime battleground state, and Georgia, a brand new battleground state.
Obama leads Colorado, 53-45. Obama leads Virginia, 53-44. Obama leads Florida, 51-47. McCain leads Missouri, 50-48. And McCain leads Georgia, 52-47. President Bush won all five of those states in his close two elections.
In Colorado, over-50 voters are moving from McCain to Obama.
** MARIST POLLS: BIG OBAMA LEAD IN PENNSLVANIA, SMALL LEAD IN OHIO. In the new Marist Polls of battlegrounds Pennsylvania – long identified as a must takeaway state for John McCain – and Ohio, Barack Obama is in the lead. In Pennsylvania, its Obama, 54-41 amongst likely voters. In Ohio, it’s Obama, 48-45.
** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL: EARLY VOTE SKEWING OBAMA. The new ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that around 60% of early voters have gone for Barack Obama. This is the opposite of what happened in 2000 and 2004, when an equivalent proportion went with President Bush.
** MCCAIN BURNED BY THE ASSOCIATION GAME. One of the elements in the “Manchurian candidate” fantasy about the Barack Obama spun by elements of the far right is that he is supposedly close to a dangerous Palestinian operative named Rashid Khalidi. Some say he was a top aide to Yasser Arafat, though top reporters say no. (Incidentally, Arafat became an ally of the US.) What we do know is that he is an Ivy League professor.
John McCain’s campaign is pushing the association with Obama. But it turns out that McCain himself actually funded Khalidi’s organization.
In the 1990s, a big foundation chaired by McCain gave over half a million dollars to Khalidi’s group.
The name of the McCain-chaired foundation providing such largesse to a purportedly dangerous guy? The International Republican Institute.
** BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS: OBAMA UP IN SIX STATES, TIED IN TWO STATES. The new AP poll of eight battleground states – including six won by President Bush and two won by John Kerry – show Barack Obama with sizable leads in four states won President Bush and huge leads in two state that John McCain hoped to take away from the Democrats.
Obama has significant leads over McCain in four red states won by President Bush. He’s up 12 in Nevada, 9 in Colorado, 7 in Virginia, and 7 in Ohio. Obama and McCain are tied in two other red states, Florida and North Carolina.
Obama has huge leads in two states McCain has tried very hard to take away, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Obama is up 12 in Pennsylvania, where the Republican ticket practically found a home away from home, and a whopping 18 in New Hampshire, the state which jump-started McCain’s career in presidential politics in 2000, and revived it in 2008.
** QUINNIPIAC SWING STATE POLLS: OBAMA WELL UP IN PENNSYLVANIA AND OHIO, BARELY IN FLORIDA. The new Quinnipiac polls of those swing states show John McCain making up some late ground on Barack Obama, but still well behind in two out of three. No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three big states.
Obama leads McCain in Pennsylvania, 53-41, Ohio, 51-42, and Florida, barely, 47-45. McCain’s improvement, which amounts to a few points in each state, is due to winning back some white voters. This is why Obama is campaigning with Bill Clinton in Florida.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From yesterday’s column.
John McCain’s brand new attack ad hits Barack Obama as a show horse, an inexperienced tax & spender who is “Not ready – yet.” Apparently aimed at voters who like Obama but aren’t sure.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Raleigh, North Carolina and and Sunrise and Kissimmee, Florida. Obama speaks live as part of a 30-minute TV special on many TV nets tonight. He’s joined in Kississimee, Florida, after the special, by Bill Clinton.
Joe Biden is in Jupiter and Sunrise, Florida.
Michelle Obama is in Rocky Mount and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Miami, Tampa, and Palm Beach, Florida.
Sarah Palin is in Toledo, Bowling Green, and Chillicothe, Ohio and Jeffersonville, Indiana.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigns for the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative today. He has a noon event at the state Capitol where he is joined by former elected officials of both political parties including former Senator Dede Alpert, former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte, former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, former Assemblywoman Tricia Hunter and former Assemblyman Bob Pacheco.
This afternoon, he’s in the San Francisco Bay Area at the Concord Chamber of Commerce, joined by Keith McMahon, President & CEO of the Concord Chamber of Commerce, Jeannine English, State President of AARP California, Jim Wunderman, President & CEO of the Bay Area Council and Derek Cressman, Western States Regional Director of Common Cause
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $66 to $67 per barrel range.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. That didn’t arrest the slide. Yesterday’s stock market jump in the US may have, as oil is up a few dollars over yesterday’s trading, with some believing the global economic slump may be less disastrous.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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More good polling information.
McCain is drawing blind (or very near it) with only one card left to go. I can’t see how he can possibly win.
“I am concerned that Obama’s 1/2 hour ads may be too much for voters nearing saturation.”
then most will get up to go make dinner — and the undecideds, who still feel they need more, will get their more.
people won’t switch their votes due to “saturation.”
for many people, the exotic still needs further vetting…
NASCAR legend Junior Johnson has endorsed Obama. To some in North Carolina this may mean more than a Powell or an Adelman etc.
Or at least provocative of a big loud “WTF???” and a flying beer or two.
“NASCAR legend Junior Johnson has endorsed Obama. To some in North Carolina this may mean more than a Powell or an Adelman etc”
Hot Damn!
Don’t forget Dean Smith already endorsed Obama.
re 52 4h20 — I concur.
It tells me that Obama isn’t going to react to trolling.
You have heard of “troll”-ing, haven’t you?
41. Hap Hazard:
38. Wilbur — Well Wilbur, at least I am still willing to speculate on something that clearly calls for speculation. Your professional training doesn’t cause you to attach any suspicion to the silence from Obama on this issue? Just wondering.
Oct 29, 2008 – 1:57 pm
Jack, it isn’t “trolling” when the candidate (McCain) is raising the issue continually, and is starting to chink away at the armor of his opponent by demanding that a major news organization which endorses Obama release the tape in its possession that is presumptively damaging to Obama.
Hap, I disagree. McCain and Palin are themselves trolling with an endless stream of unsubstantiated nonsense. That JM would stoop so low doesn’t legitimize the trolling, it delegitimizes him.
And McCain is now running robocalls in Arizona.
In Arizona.
Hap — this is “Whitey” all over again. Who’s holding that tape?
You’re starting to sound like a conspiracy nut.
Wilbur you could be right that McCain is stooping low here, but my own suspicious mindset makes me lean more toward the “where there is smoke there is fire” axiom, and given that McCain wouldn’t allow Wright to be discussed, the fact that he is driving this point makes me think there really is something there that isn’t a dirty smear. He may even already have the tape, and is just making a big stink in advance so as to make it impossible for the media to ignore once it is released. I also think inquiry into associations and alliances is appropriate, as is introduction of evidence to demonstrate prior untruthfulness or inconsistencies. I have personally gone through more significant background checks for jobs much less than POTUS..
OK, now to proceed off topic, I have already broken a promise to Bill (a couple of times now) that I would quit commenting here, but old habits die hard, and I have come to “know” many of you folks over the course of several years (since 2003), so it has been difficult to keep my mouth shut all the time. I will try to honor my commitments in the future. . .
I am sorry that most of you don’t buy that I simply changed my mind over the course of time and went against Obama, even though I was originally undecided but leaning hard toward Obama (voted for him in the primary over Clinton), and was especially fond of the matchup between McCain and Obama because I thought it would be great for the nation no matter who won should that matchup come to pass. It isn’t being a site pest or troll to do that, at least as far as I understand these things.
But it just might be a cardinal sin, although you should know that there are many who have gone this way and are not supporting Obama, even though they are lifelong democrats. Most of them that I know are Bill and Hillary Clinton-ites who don’t like how she was treated by the Dean-Obama-Kennedy group, but others were once Obama supporters but are simply not comfortable with his tax and economic policies, and can’t vote for that government-centric way of thinking at this time. These folks all tend to be democrats who are a bit more conservative than perhaps many here are. I have become conservative enough over the years to have left the democratic party years ago, but not conservative enough to have ever thought about joining the republicans. Whatever. I am not sure I have a point after all this rambling.
Good luck to both candidates and to you folks. Perhaps we should all raise a beer, wine or whiskey glass next Wednesday to celebrate that we will have all lived through this very interesting election year. I will have a drink (or maybe 2?) to Bill and to you all next Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday too?), from my secret undisclosed location in the Midwest. (No there aren’t any mountains — where I am going isn’t the New West)
Thank you Brasky. Just saw your note. Good day.
Hap:
Do you really think the McCain campaign *has* the video and wouldn’t release it? Is that even plausible?
The problem with answering conspiracy charges is this: the best evidence that there is a conspiracy is that there is no evidence of the conspiracy.
Wouldn’t it be dishonest and disengenuous for McCain to be demanding the tape’s release if he already had it?
I really prefer reality-based politics.
Hap — when you are willing to discuss real politics, I’m happy to engage, but you’re not talking with any sense.
Take it from someone who has lost a lot of elections — you need to accept it and move on. Jesus, there are still dems who talk about how Gore won Florida. Whatever – let it go and come back to reality.
This is silly.
Sarah Palin proves once again there is a fume leak in the campaign HQ. She is now stating that Obama has yet another pal with direct ties to the PLO.
Someone told me (or maybe I read it here) the last days of a campaign are a knife fight in a phone booth.
This campaign will be a case study for future campaign strategists on how to look like complete fools while spending millions in the process.
I know I’m just a dense, uncelebrated TV monkey, but it seems to me that Hap is suggesting that Obama should be insisting that the media release some radioactive tape that may or may not exist. There’s only one campaign in this race stupid enough to step into a goofy trap like that. It ain’t the Obama campaign.
If there were such a tape, I’m guessing the Clintons would have found it.
Not even believing this conversation is filling up space here…ps
“She is now stating that Obama has yet another pal with direct ties to the PLO.”
ANOTHER unfounded accusation from campaign McCain – it must be Wednesday.
The McCain camp looks like the boy who cried wolf. No one is going to believe anything they say. They sound like a bunch of crackpots. “ I have here a list of 104…87…um 57 members of the Communist Party.” Good God.
BTW, John McCain has been in several movies and tv shows. I’d like to know if he witnessed any drug use. He’s never denied it, which makes me suspicious.
This is perhaps one of the most pathetic presidential campaigns in recent memory (Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul aside).
I just found this — a blog tracking all political robo calls. This is awsome. I’m going to make some popcorn and pop a cold one and listen to these tonight.
Now if someone knows of a good online source for political mailers, please post it.
http://thinkdodone.typepad.com/ccd/
Yeah, I had that issue, and McCain’s big problem on it, this morning.
A knife fight in the phone booth. Or the furious swinging of pillows.
>67. Elroy El:
Sarah Palin proves once again there is a fume leak in the campaign HQ. She is now stating that Obama has yet another pal with direct ties to the PLO.
Someone told me (or maybe I read it here) the last days of a campaign are a knife fight in a phone booth.
This campaign will be a case study for future campaign strategists on how to look like complete fools while spending millions in the process.
Oct 29, 2008 – 4:57 pm
Hap, this is all so very dramatic.
I’ve told you repeatedly you are free to post here.
I’ve also told you that this stuff is evidence that you spend too much time plumbing the shallows of the far right blogosphere.
It’s too easy to explain what’s wrong with your reasoning.
Why isn’t McCain insisting that the Navy release records of his big car crash?
Here’s what we need to do.
Focus on substance.
>61. Hap Hazard:
Wilbur you could be right that McCain is stooping low here, but my own suspicious mindset makes me lean more toward the “where there is smoke there is fire” axiom, and given that McCain wouldn’t allow Wright to be discussed, the fact that he is driving this point makes me think there really is something there that isn’t a dirty smear. He may even already have the tape, and is just making a big stink in advance so as to make it impossible for the media to ignore once it is released. I also think inquiry into associations and alliances is appropriate, as is introduction of evidence to demonstrate prior untruthfulness or inconsistencies. I have personally gone through more significant background checks for jobs much less than POTUS..
OK, now to proceed off topic, I have already broken a promise to Bill (a couple of times now) that I would quit commenting here, but old habits die hard, and I have come to “know” many of you folks over the course of several years (since 2003), so it has been difficult to keep my mouth shut all the time. I will try to honor my commitments in the future. . .
I am certain the McCain campaign has no such tape.
It’s actually idiotic for McCain to bring up this guy. See my morning item above.
>64. Wilbur:
Wouldn’t it be dishonest and disengenuous for McCain to be demanding the tape’s release if he already had it?
I really prefer reality-based politics.
Oct 29, 2008 – 3:58 pm
Look, this is the old when did you stop beating your wife gambit.
It is trolling, whether it is done on a radio show, as Mac did it today, in a speech by a wind-up, as Palin did it today, or on a web site.
>63. Prospero:
Hap:
Do you really think the McCain campaign *has* the video and wouldn’t release it? Is that even plausible?
The problem with answering conspiracy charges is this: the best evidence that there is a conspiracy is that there is no evidence of the conspiracy.
Oct 29, 2008 – 3:54 pm
That’s for sure.
As I’ve already written, and I know a lot about the McCain campaign, there is no silver bullet against Obama.
Period.
>68. Pat Skipper:
I know I’m just a dense, uncelebrated TV monkey, but it seems to me that Hap is suggesting that Obama should be insisting that the media release some radioactive tape that may or may not exist. There’s only one campaign in this race stupid enough to step into a goofy trap like that. It ain’t the Obama campaign.
If there were such a tape, I’m guessing the Clintons would have found it.
Not even believing this conversation is filling up space here…ps
Just watched 30 minutes of Obama…damn good. Watch it again in thirty minutes.
Focus on substance. – *That* is what is the scary part to me. The decimation of the military and corresponding institution of a civilian army is a bit disconcerting, but Obama won’t talk about this kind of thing in detail. His tax the “rich” will certainly affect me because my wife has a (very small, 1 additional employee) sales business, and our combined gross income therefore exceeds his classification of “rich.” And what is he going to do with this money he takes away –give it to somebody who presumably deserves it more. Gee, how touching. Yet he doesn’t really talk about that issue except to mouth tiring platitudes about helping the “middle class” which I think is total bullshit. And just this week, Biden was talking about a lower than $250 K threshold. So what is up? We don’t seem to get much in the way of straight talk from Obama, either.
“The decimation of the military under Obama.”
It doesn’t embarrass you to parrot such fringe nonsense here?
Hap,
And yet you voted for him in the primary?
Whose ass are you trying to blow smoke up???
It isn’t fringe to suggest that he will curtail the military. He has suggested it and it has been backed up in recent days by congressional leaders. Yes, Solon, I voted for Obama in the primary, but in examining things about him since that early February day, I have concluded he isn’t for me. What are you trying to suggest Solon? Tell me.
Here is a story on the military issue. It was the first I found,and is an editorial, but I doubt seriously that it is based on a fever dream or fringe kool-aid dispenser…
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=297645696465868
Hap,
Pure and simple…as I’m just a simple soul…his policies are today as they were then. What didn’t you understand then? You strike me as being a little too sharpe to have that abrupt of a change in a few months.
Quite probably you should have voted in the Rep primary. However, guess since your a DTS, they wouldn’t let cast a ballot…very inclusive folks.
In essence, like many people here, I don’t buy your b.s. story. Not sure why you voted for him in February, but doubt that you were ever really a supporter.
Whatever Solon. So if I had supported Clinton, like MOST did in California, then I am sure you would have another nit to pick because I am not fawning over Obama as a party loyalist like you apparently are.
Hap,
Once again you’re wrong. I don’t pick nits.
And thank you for calling me a party loyalist. Proud to say that I am. My values are best represented by my party. Made that decision years ago and have stuck with it.
Have a nice evening…when you moving to the Midwest?
Hap,
The US spends as much on defense as the next ten nations combined? How much is enough?H
Solon, thank you, have a nice evening as well. Not moving to the Midwest, just going there very soon to visit close relative. Elroy, not sure what the answer is, but don’t think that the current times permit major cuts of the sort OBama is suggesting, which was confirmed to be 25% in recent days by Barney Frank. To me, 25% is way too much given that we are involved in a pretty big way on at least two fronts in the Middle East.
Bill,
Do you have any polling data on Propositions 5,6 and 9?
Hap, you are trolling here.
Investors Business Daily is a very conservative outfit, as I am sure you know.
Obama is not going to decimate the military.
Let’s stick to Colin Powell’s assessment.
And no, I don’t believe you were an Obama supporters.
I seem to recall you touting Fred Thompson last year as the next president of the United States.
You’re free to post here, but I’m not going burn up a lot of time.
Nothing I consider definitive, but I can tell you that Prop 5 is going to lose.
>87. Hattie Caraway:
Bill,
Do you have any polling data on Propositions 5,6 and 9?
Oct 29, 2008 – 11:16 pm
Even if McCain wins Arizona, the margin of victory in the home states of the respective candidates will be striking — maybe a 30 pt difference.
Aren’t those the voters who know these men the most?
What new video today?
Hap, the fact that the Pentagon has money to spend on things like
this should tell you they have too much money or time on their hands.
Sen. Webb has asked the Pentagon to reconsider its $300M contract for PR that is for propagandizing Iraq.
$300M is chump change in the terms of the total DoD budget, but as the late great Sen. Dirksen once stated, “a million here, a million there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.”
Incidentally, NWN passed 74,000 comments on election eve.