Barack Obama delivered his “closing argument” speech yesterday in Canton, Ohio.
** NO ON 8 STABILIZES WITH NEW ADVERTISING. The No on Prop 8 campaign, rocked back on its heels by aggressive advertising by the opponents of same-sex marriage, is stabilizing with two new ads. The first, which began running late last week, pushes back hard at the claim that upholding the California Supreme Court’s ruling establishing the right of same-sex marriage would require that schools teach homosexuality, with state schools chief Jack O’Connell doing a good job making the argument.
Now there is a powerful brand-new ad featuring U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. More about this tomorrow.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). … From my new column.
What would Don Draper do? (Disclosure: I don’t actually answer that question.)
** BLOOMBERG/L.A. TIMES POLL: SIGNIFICANT OBAMA LEADS IN OHIO AND FLORIDA. In Ohio, it’s Barack Obama 49%, John McCain 40%. In Florida, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 43%.
Former President Bill Clinton joins Obama to campaign together in Florida tomorrow.
These are the two big battleground states carried by President Bush. Without both of them, the Republicans cannot win.
How is the Joe the Plumber stuff playing for McCain? In Ohio, home state of the actual Sam Wurzelbacher, Obama leads McCain amongst white working class voters, 52% to 38%.
Half the voters in both states believe that McCain would continue the highly unpopular policies of President George W. Bush.
** NEVADA POLL: OBAMA BY 10. Barack Obama has opened up a big lead in battleground Nevada in the new Suffolk University poll, 50% to 40%, over John McCain. The Silver State, as I wrote in January 2007, is proving to be a great takeaway for the Democrats.
I have an upcoming column about the Democrats’ New West strategy.
** GEORGIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 1. In the new Insider Advantage poll of Georgia, which no one saw as a battleground state, John McCain barely leads Barack Obama, 48% to 47%. Georgia has gone Republican in presidential races for approximately ever.
** THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” CARD, AGAIN. Here’s something Drudge – whose influence this time out is way down, as he flogs right-wing tropes over and over while Huffington Post has easily eclipsed him – is pushing hard. That the LA Times should release video of some event Barack Obama attended for a Palestinian-American. Did Obama do or say anything at this private event? Not even mentioned.
I wrote about these sweaty far right fantasies about Obama a couple weeks ago. Paranoia strikes deep, as someone once wrote …
** CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the brand new Rasmussen poll of the Golden State by a whopping 61% to 34%. Not only do California voters see Obama as best on the economy, they see him as best on national security, too!
Obama has a 67% favorable rating in California. McCain has a 44% favorable rating. Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket in California, as I said she would be from the beginning. There is a reason why McCain campaign officials like Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman who are thinking of running for governor in 2010 are limiting their public appearances. But that won’t stop ads if either actually does run for governor.
** FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Florida, 51% to 47%, in the new Rasmussen poll. Obama, running mate Joe Biden, and former President Bill Clinton are all converging on the Sunshine State to try to lock it down.
** OHIO POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Ohio, 49% to 45%, in the new Rasmussen poll. This is the first time there’s been any separation in this Republican-owned poll of th Buckeye State since McCain led five weeks ago.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chester, Pennsylvania and Harrisonburg and Norfolk, Virginia. Obama is locking down Pennsylvania and Florida.
Joe Biden is in Ocala and Melbourne, Florida. The Sunshine State, where Obama leads, remains highly competitive. That’s why Obama will campaign there on Wednesday with former President Bill Clinton.
Michelle Obama is in Las Vegas, New Mexico and Springs, Colorado. Her appearance on last night’s Tonight Show went quite well.
John McCain is in Hershey and Quakertown, Pennsylvania and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Sarah Palin is in Hershey, Quakertown, Shippensburg, and University Park, Pennsylvania. She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.
John McCain’s latest attack ad against Barack Obama says he, McCain, is “proven, for a stronger America.”
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the LA area today for private meetings and conversations and environmental events. He installs the last of 1,727 solar panels on the rooftop of the STAPLES Center in downtown Los Angeles. The event will be webcast live at 1:45 PM on www.gov.ca.gov. Later in the afternoon he tours the Contessa manufacturing plant in Commerce, which is the first frozen food facility in the world to be certified as a green building under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design rating system.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From last Tuesday’s column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $62 to $63 per barrel range.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
The drop of over $8r per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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Strong speech by Obama.
McCain’s ad is kind of lame.
That’s a great speech by Barack. I’d like to see the wingnuts try to attack THAT as “anti-American.”
Another boring McCain ad. Let it end soon!
Sarah Palin is in Hershey, Quakertown, Shippensburg, and University Park, Pennsylvania. She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.
——
The vision of Sid and Sarah “banging away” in Pennsylvania is not a pretty one. Just isn’t.
lol
The Schwarzenger endorsement is making a big difference.
lol
** CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the brand new Rasmussen poll of the Golden State by a whopping 61% to 34%. Not only do California voters see Obama as best on the economy, they see him as best on national security, too!
Obama has a 67% favorable rating in California. McCain has a 44% favorable rating. Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket in California. There is a reason why McCain campaign officials like Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman who are thinking of running for governor in 2010 are limiting their public appearances. But that won’t stop ads if either actually does run for governor.
“CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27.”
I didn’t know pollsters could count that high.
Good Lord!
“She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.”
they are only preaching to the choir — and in McCain’s case its very, very small choirs.
(esp. since he cancelled the rain rally.)
BB…
i am hearing mixed messages on early voting numbers. do you have any info…?
i don’t even know where to go to suss those out.
(and ditto what SS said above.)
sorry ’bout the series last night, guys. on the other hand, despite the outcome, MNF was very entertaining.
“CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27.”
They polled Arnold too – he’s got a 32% approval and a 30% disapproval rating. Bush? 23%/62%.
He’s going to have to do something to offset that trip to Columbus in this political environment.
Also, it would seem his coattails for Prop 11 might not be very long.
Schwarzenegger is much higher in the PPIC poll, 47% approval. Also higher disapproval.
The robopolls drop off in accuracy after the main question, I’ve noticed.
I’m gathering Obama is doing very well with early voters.
>10. four waters:
“She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.”
they are only preaching to the choir — and in McCain’s case its very, very small choirs.
(esp. since he cancelled the rain rally.)
BB…
i am hearing mixed messages on early voting numbers. do you have any info…?
i don’t even know where to go to suss those out.
(and ditto what SS said above.)
sorry ’bout the series last night, guys. on the other hand, despite the outcome, MNF was very entertaining.
Oct 28, 2008 – 10:32 am
I can’t recall another candidate who’s been that far ahead.
>8. Brasky:
“CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27.”
I didn’t know pollsters could count that high.
Oct 28, 2008 – 10:24 am
“they are only preaching to the choir ”
And they aren’t even writing new material…on the radio this morning the 5 second clip included “..and I’ve got the scars to proove it my friends.”
Jesus, did these guys layoff all their writers?
Indeed.
>9. Jack Aubrey:
Good Lord!
Oct 28, 2008 – 10:29 am
He’s not trumpeting it, especially.
>7. Ann:
The Schwarzenger endorsement is making a big difference.
lol
** CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the brand new Rasmussen poll of the Golden State by a whopping 61% to 34%. Not only do California voters see Obama as best on the economy, they see him as best on national security, too!
Obama has a 67% favorable rating in California. McCain has a 44% favorable rating. Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket in California. There is a reason why McCain campaign officials like Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman who are thinking of running for governor in 2010 are limiting their public appearances. But that won’t stop ads if either actually does run for governor.
Oct 28, 2008 – 10:02 am
I suppose I need to be more careful how I write things.
>5. Sacramento Solon:
Sarah Palin is in Hershey, Quakertown, Shippensburg, and University Park, Pennsylvania. She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.
——
The vision of Sid and Sarah “banging away” in Pennsylvania is not a pretty one. Just isn’t.
Oct 28, 2008 – 9:44 am
Seven Days In … well, not May.
>4. Capitol Boy:
Another boring McCain ad. Let it end soon!
Oct 28, 2008 – 8:56 am
“The robopolls drop off in accuracy after the main question, I’ve noticed.”
Good point.
I still think he has to make a move to the left before he flies to Ohio (or the day after). It will have to be pretty dramatic to get noticed.
Where there’s a will, there’s a way.
>3. Capitol Boy:
That’s a great speech by Barack. I’d like to see the wingnuts try to attack THAT as “anti-American.”
Oct 28, 2008 – 8:53 am
Pew — Obama +19 with early voters.
http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines
It’s not one of their best.
>2. Jonas Blane:
McCain’s ad is kind of lame.
Oct 28, 2008 – 8:48 am
A good close by Professor Obama.
>1. Jonas Blane:
Strong speech by Obama.
Oct 28, 2008 – 8:47 am
Pollster.com has moved Virginia into a “strong democratic” column, putting Obama at over 270 in that category. Politico has Obama leading Colorado by +9 and I KNOW Obama is going to win by a decent margin in New Mexico.
more i was asking about turnout… than turnout for a specific candidate.
turnout is in unchartered territory:
“In Georgia, more people have cast ballots in the first month of early voting than turned out early during the 2004 election, said Matt Carrothers, spokesman for Georgia’s secretary of state.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aXHbaLY2rl3w&refer=home
Perhaps BHO has been better at the Boyd Cycle after all, on a macro level…
They did get faster, after letting Team McCain run all over them at points.
They also had the consistent message and positioning.
It looks big.
>27. Brasky:
turnout is in unchartered territory:
“In Georgia, more people have cast ballots in the first month of early voting than turned out early during the 2004 election, said Matt Carrothers, spokesman for Georgia’s secretary of state.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aXHbaLY2rl3w&refer=home
Oct 28, 2008 – 11:13 am
The whole Mountain West strategy is really working — which I’ll write about in a column this week — and Virginia is Obama country.
The cradle of the Confederacy …
>25. Brasky:
Pollster.com has moved Virginia into a “strong democratic” column, putting Obama at over 270 in that category. Politico has Obama leading Colorado by +9 and I KNOW Obama is going to win by a decent margin in New Mexico.
Oct 28, 2008 – 10:42 am
“The whole Mountain West strategy is really working”
I saw that the RNC is having to put-up McCain radio in Montana. Wow.
Robert Draper was on NPR this morning. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96213285
His NYT Magazine piece is a MUST read.
In other news, Greg Lucas writes that the CA budget abyss starts at close to $19B this year. Fasten your seat belts…
http://californiascapitol.com/blog/?p=174
“Greg Lucas writes that the CA budget abyss starts at close to $19B this year.”
If Arnold cranked-out
T5, we could do like $19 billion worldwide. Problem solved.
NBC/Mason Dixon: North Carolina tied; Montana within the margin; New Hampshire +11.
McCain would STILL be losing this race even if we invented some new states, like Tex-lahoma, or Ken-nessee or Ida-omying.
Brasky…
thanks; that’s exactly what i was looking for.
Despite all the very interesting poll numbers, I can’t help but reflect on the enthusiasm of the Kerry campaign four years ago at this time.
“Brasky…
thanks; that’s exactly what i was looking for.”
No problem. rtumble also has something like 3 stories on record registrations in CA.
That should help 8.
No on 8, I mean.
“the enthusiasm of the Kerry campaign four years ago ”
first, I was NEVER enthusiastic for Kerry — the guy is a dud. Second, I don’t see the polling having any similarities.
People – stop looking at just the national polls. That’s not how a president is elected!
Obama is going to win the electoral map by a good margin, which will probably be equal to the 2004, 2000, 1976 and 1968 margins COMBINED.
I don’t think he’s going to catch the 1992 margin of +100. He’ll probably be elected with about 80 to spare.
Really?
4 years ago at this time, Kerry was behind.
37. Alva:
Despite all the very interesting poll numbers, I can’t help but reflect on the enthusiasm of the Kerry campaign four years ago at this time.
Oct 28, 2008 – 12:30 pm
“No on 8, I mean.”
Yup.
Alva,
OCTOBER 28, 2008
Morning Status Update for Tuesday (10/28)
By Mark Blumenthal
We had what I believe is a new one-day record for new statewide poll releases (37), but if you are looking for evidence of “tightening” you won’t find it here. Fifteen of today’s polls represented updates from the same pollster from previous tracks conducted earlier in October: Eight (8) of the 15 showed a nominal shift in Obama’s direction, 7 in McCain’s direction and 1 showed no change in margin.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_tues_1.php
The record turnout will mean that it will take longer to officially call the election on election day — the system will be stretched to capacity, polls will be open longer, it will take longer to process provisional ballots, etc.
That means exit polling will take center stage on election night again — expect lots of spin from camp McCain on that point. Dem counterspinners — have your Bradley Effect talking points in order.
Indeed, the state by state numbers are impressive. And, watching the MSNBC analysts play with the electronic electoral map is even more convincing.
It’s just that I’ve never seen a nationwide sweep like this for a Dem (all due respect to President Clinton) in my short lifetime.
Just seven more days.
strictly looking at EVs:
McCain would have to win all tossups, AND all leaners (Dem and Reep) in order to take this.
as for the popular vote, which should count — but doesn’t (i’m sure that makes me a commie), only the vote will tell. this is really all foreign. we have had surges like this in political history, but 1) not with a black Presidential candidate, 2) not while the internet was a vehicle, and 3) not while so many people were so focused on the election, and the turnout numbers predicted to be so high (and certainly not with the combination of the 3).
(i am also holding my breath, don’t get me wrong, but just looking at the statistics…)
four waters — we are also seeing the first cracks in the “Southern Strategy” in 40 years. Also, we transitioning from the “Republican Revolution” into something new. I think we are writing a new model with this election.
Maybe that’s it, Brasky. I turned 40 this year.
“THE ‘MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE’ CARD, AGAIN”
The head of the McCain transition team directed a team of lobbyists convicted for trying to circumvent the embargo of Enemy to America, Saddam Hussein. I want to know what was said in those meetings.
I’d also like to know if there is video of McCain trying influence federal regulators in the S&L scandal.
Oh, how about some scratchy audio recordings of his meeting with South American Strongman Pinochet?
Does Drudge want to go down this road the same day that news reports indicate that McCain may have been involved in a fatal car accident in the 1960s?