Barack Obama delivered his “closing argument” speech yesterday in Canton, Ohio.
** NO ON 8 STABILIZES WITH NEW ADVERTISING. The No on Prop 8 campaign, rocked back on its heels by aggressive advertising by the opponents of same-sex marriage, is stabilizing with two new ads. The first, which began running late last week, pushes back hard at the claim that upholding the California Supreme Court’s ruling establishing the right of same-sex marriage would require that schools teach homosexuality, with state schools chief Jack O’Connell doing a good job making the argument.
Now there is a powerful brand-new ad featuring U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. More about this tomorrow.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). … From my new column.
What would Don Draper do? (Disclosure: I don’t actually answer that question.)
** BLOOMBERG/L.A. TIMES POLL: SIGNIFICANT OBAMA LEADS IN OHIO AND FLORIDA. In Ohio, it’s Barack Obama 49%, John McCain 40%. In Florida, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 43%.
Former President Bill Clinton joins Obama to campaign together in Florida tomorrow.
These are the two big battleground states carried by President Bush. Without both of them, the Republicans cannot win.
How is the Joe the Plumber stuff playing for McCain? In Ohio, home state of the actual Sam Wurzelbacher, Obama leads McCain amongst white working class voters, 52% to 38%.
Half the voters in both states believe that McCain would continue the highly unpopular policies of President George W. Bush.
** NEVADA POLL: OBAMA BY 10. Barack Obama has opened up a big lead in battleground Nevada in the new Suffolk University poll, 50% to 40%, over John McCain. The Silver State, as I wrote in January 2007, is proving to be a great takeaway for the Democrats.
I have an upcoming column about the Democrats’ New West strategy.
** GEORGIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 1. In the new Insider Advantage poll of Georgia, which no one saw as a battleground state, John McCain barely leads Barack Obama, 48% to 47%. Georgia has gone Republican in presidential races for approximately ever.
** THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” CARD, AGAIN. Here’s something Drudge – whose influence this time out is way down, as he flogs right-wing tropes over and over while Huffington Post has easily eclipsed him – is pushing hard. That the LA Times should release video of some event Barack Obama attended for a Palestinian-American. Did Obama do or say anything at this private event? Not even mentioned.
I wrote about these sweaty far right fantasies about Obama a couple weeks ago. Paranoia strikes deep, as someone once wrote …
** CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the brand new Rasmussen poll of the Golden State by a whopping 61% to 34%. Not only do California voters see Obama as best on the economy, they see him as best on national security, too!
Obama has a 67% favorable rating in California. McCain has a 44% favorable rating. Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket in California, as I said she would be from the beginning. There is a reason why McCain campaign officials like Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman who are thinking of running for governor in 2010 are limiting their public appearances. But that won’t stop ads if either actually does run for governor.
** FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Florida, 51% to 47%, in the new Rasmussen poll. Obama, running mate Joe Biden, and former President Bill Clinton are all converging on the Sunshine State to try to lock it down.
** OHIO POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Ohio, 49% to 45%, in the new Rasmussen poll. This is the first time there’s been any separation in this Republican-owned poll of th Buckeye State since McCain led five weeks ago.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chester, Pennsylvania and Harrisonburg and Norfolk, Virginia. Obama is locking down Pennsylvania and Florida.
Joe Biden is in Ocala and Melbourne, Florida. The Sunshine State, where Obama leads, remains highly competitive. That’s why Obama will campaign there on Wednesday with former President Bill Clinton.
Michelle Obama is in Las Vegas, New Mexico and Springs, Colorado. Her appearance on last night’s Tonight Show went quite well.
John McCain is in Hershey and Quakertown, Pennsylvania and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Sarah Palin is in Hershey, Quakertown, Shippensburg, and University Park, Pennsylvania. She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.
John McCain’s latest attack ad against Barack Obama says he, McCain, is “proven, for a stronger America.”
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the LA area today for private meetings and conversations and environmental events. He installs the last of 1,727 solar panels on the rooftop of the STAPLES Center in downtown Los Angeles. The event will be webcast live at 1:45 PM on www.gov.ca.gov. Later in the afternoon he tours the Contessa manufacturing plant in Commerce, which is the first frozen food facility in the world to be certified as a green building under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design rating system.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From last Tuesday’s column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.” Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns on the governorship of Arnold Schwarzenegger for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading down again in the $62 to $63 per barrel range.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
The drop of over $8r per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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To Drudge and the rest of the wingnuts, I’ll offer you this advice: “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”
What movie is THAT from?
Where’s Schwarzeneger?
Rep. Florida governor Charlie Crist just issued an edict extending the hours for early voting. Apparently he doesn’t support the GOP vote suppression effort. Pretty obvious which candidate this helps.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Crist_extends_voting_hours.html?showall
“Georgia has gone Republican in presidential races for approximately ever.”
LOL
“GEORGIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 1. ”
It would be interesting to talk to some pollsters and see if the results of early voting are affecting their models for “likely voter.”
If young folks (who don’t have land lines) are turning out in very large numbers or were undersampled to begin with, this might push the margins wider as we get closer to election day.
“I think we are writing a new model with this election.”
agreed.
re: #55
i don’t think we can look at that with any accuracy until after the election. i have all the same questions (and more because i never outgrew that annoying “why” stage).
the one thing that does seem to be true SO FAR is that early voting, like VBMs, have in the past generally favored Reeps, and this election that does not seem to be true — or in some places, as true. still far too early to tell anything. as i’ve said the postmortem on the stats will be really fascinating.
GA is really a tossup. unlikely — but a genuine tossup.
Thank you Dean Wormer. How is the Mrs.??
“Thank you Dean Wormer. How is the Mrs.??”
Probably passed-out under a frat boy somewhere…
Welcome back Kid!
You better not!
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). … From my new column.
What would Don Draper do? (Disclosure: I don’t actually answer that question.)
Yes, welcome back!
59. Brasky:
Welcome back Kid!
Oct 28, 2008 – 4:18 pm
“TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S). ”
Another nice piece. I like the bit about the silver bullet and dawn approaching.
Although I don’t think I completely agree — there’s still a week left in the campaign. Plenty of time for McCain to change his message another 3-4 times.
I’ve met crazy homeless people with more consistent narratives than McCain. I mean, either the CIA is broadcasting major league baseball games to your fillings or they’re not…
I love these polls. What can go wrong? Anything?
Sorry for the NWN hiatus. I have been working and travelling. With just a week before the landing of this endless election, I thought it was time to check back in.
Obama is going to win going away. His 9 point lead in Virginia is too large for even the most latent racists to ambush him. And if McCain can’t win Virginia, he is toast. The list of lost-cause swing states is way too long.
With the very strong anti-Bush headwind, 2008 was always a tough road for any Republican, including McCain. I am not sure the race was ever winnable, and the McCain folks never found their right voice or line of attack.
The Kid family will endure Election Night quietly at home, no doubt cracking the medicinal Wild Turkey bottle saved for Hillary’s victory. I worry about my nation and state. I hope the Obama voters are right and he is our best option. With two years of undivided government, the Democrats will have a prime opportunity to prove themselves the better party. We are betting our lives and fortunes that Obama, Reid and Pelosi do not remind us of another classic Animal House line:
“You f***ed up, you trusted us.”
Next Tuesday is going to be a great celebration of what America can be.
KK,
Welcome back. Your voice has been missed. Not much, but it has been missed!
Our country will do just fine over the next few years.
“Our country will do just fine over the next few years.”
About the only good thing about 8 years of Bush — the bar as been set VERY low.
“You f***ed up, you trusted us.”
That should be the Bush administration epitaph — maybe it could be on a brass plaque in New Orleans.
McCain’s campaign advisor Charlie Black is in trouble…again.
The SEC has already suspended trading in Charles Black’s company, e-Smart. Now he’s being sued by shareholders for allowing the CEO steal $12 million on his watch as the company’s director.
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/mccain_adviser_sued_in_busines.html#more
The only way McCain is going to clean-up Washington and Wall Street is by hiring all of these corrupt lobbyists and executives, putting them on the Straight Talk Express and driving the thing off a cliff.
Mission (almost) accomplished.
There’s a strong new No on 8 ad with Dianne Feinstein.
wow – you ain’t kidding. great ad
oh, you can see the ad here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7LdC1RxvZg
I watched again — it’s a VERY good ad. The language, tone and delivery are perfect. I even like the music.
On a technical point, some of the pans don’t splice together well.
Overall, perhaps the best ballot measure ad I’ve seen this year.
Where’s Arnold’s?
“Where’s Arnold’s?”
Obviously very late. DiFi’s should have been out at least a week ago.
Good ad by DiFi…rock on!
Think I might start stocking up on the wine for election night. Does my good friend, Mr. Kid, care to make a recommendation???
Which reminds me, is it still treasonous to drink French wine?
On election night it is!
What new video today?
Incidentally, NWN passed 74,000 comments on election eve.