Former President Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama on Wednesday in battleground Florida.
NOTE: This is a travel day for me, so writing will be intermittent.
** COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO POLLS: SUBSTANTIAL OBAMA LEADS. The new Public Policy Polling surveys of Colorado and New Mexico show Barack Obama with double digit leads over John McCain in these bastions of the Mountain West.
** FIELD POLL: GAY MARRIAGE BAN BEHIND, REDISTRICTING REFORM AHEAD. The new Field Poll of California likely voters shows the Prop 8 same-sex marriage ban trailing, 44% to 49%, and the Prop 11 redistricting reform leading, 45% to 30%.
** DEMOCRATS: THE NEW WESTERN STRATEGY IS PAYING OFF. The election hasn’t happened yet, so it’s too soon to start counting electoral votes from the Democrats’ new Western strategy. But the dramatic re-shaping of the electoral battlefield is already clear enough. While the current party leadership deserves credit for a new path to presidential power, much of the new Western strategy has long been championed by former Senator Gary Hart.
The new strategy came into clear focus, fittingly for a party that knew it had to gamble on a new route to the White House, in Las Vegas, in January 2007 over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend. The snow on the famed Las Vegas Strip the day before seemed only a little less unlikely to many in the national media and political establishments than the new moves that were unfolding. … From my new column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S).For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From Tuesday’s column.
Governor Charlie Crist backs John McCain in this new positive ad in the battle for Florida.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Des Moines, Iowa, Highland, Indiana, and Chicago, Illinois.
Joe Biden is in Kettering and Lima, Ohio.
John McCain is in Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio.
Sarah Palin is in Latrobe and York, Pennsylvania.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger travels to Columbus, Ohio to campaign with Senator John McCain. The two will hold a late afternoon rally at Nationwide Arena. Schwarzenegger, whose backing in the California primary was key to McCain winning the Republican nomination, is making his quadrennial pilgrimage to the Buckeye State to campaign for the Republican presidential nominee. The former action superstar has substantial interests in the area, including the annual Arnold Classic festival of bodybuilding and fitness. Sarah Palin will be in Pennsylvania.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my column last Friday.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
This ad promoting a ban on same-sex marriage, featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom exulting that it’s here to stay “whether you like it or not,” rocketed the Yes on 8 side in the polls. But No on 8 finally has effective attacks on the initiative.
Before we get to the hard-fought state ballot initiatives, a few words about the presidential race in California, and what it means in this election and in the future.
Despite some brave statements from Republicans, the nation’s biggest state has been Barack Obama’s even before he wrapped up the Democratic nomination last June. True, he lost the February primary to Hillary Clinton. But polls showed him the Democratic favorite here even before he effectively won the nomination on June 3rd.
Obama’s lead in California is across the board. The Field Poll said today that he is headed for a bigger win here than either of Ronald Reagan’s landslides. How California, and much of the rest of the West, has moved from Republican to Democratic, is the subject of a separate column. But it’s important to note that Obama leads in all age groups and all ethnic groups, with truly massive leads amongst voters under age 35, Latino voters, African American voters, and Asian-American voters. If this election is a predictor for top of the ticket elections here, the Republicans had better find a way to clone the term-limited Arnold Schwarzenegger. And make sure the clone is a global icon, as well. Only trouble is, the party is moving so far to the right, they might not nominate him.
So the suspense of the presidential race here was short-lived. But Obama’s coming big win in the Golden State means that even carefully gerrymandered districts in Congress and the Legislature may not hold back the Democratic tide.
Democratic strategists expect to pick up a few seats in the Legislature. And possibly one or two in Congress. Among those in trouble is longtime right-wing icon Tom McClintock, the termed-out Southern California state senator seeking to hold on to a longtime Republican congressional seat 400 miles to the north, being abandoned by right-wing Congressman John Dolittle, an Abramoff scandal figure.
Democratic polls show retired Air Force Colonel Charlie Brown ahead or tied with McClintock. McClintock’s own pollster today announced that he’s ahead. Of course, I ran into McClintock on election day 2006 at the Beverly Hilton, and he was absolutely convinced – based on his pollster’s work – that he was the next lieutenant governor of California. He wasn’t.
There’ve been some hard-fought initiative battles. The two highest profile have been Prop 8, the attempt to roll back the right to same-sex marriage granted by the Republican-majority California Supreme Court, and Prop 11, the Schwarzenegger-backed initiative to take redistricting out of the Legislature’s hands and give it to a citizen commission.
After former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown changed the frame on Prop 8, by defining it in the ballot description as I just did, prospects for the initiative – which is receiving a huge chunk of its money from mostly out-of-state Mormon Church members – diminished. They went back up again when the Yes on 8 side began airing the ad you see at the top of this column, saying that allowing same-sex marriage would also require the teaching of homosexuality in the schools, and showing a gloating San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom having a Howard Dean-like eruption, saying that gay marriage is here to stay “Whether you like it or not.”
Public polling had shown the initiative losing. But after that twist in the tale, private polls showed a much closer race, and one public poll showed Prop 8 ahead.
That created a shock which probably helped the No on 8 side. More money started flowing in to its coffers, with Apple and Google coming out against the initiative and people like Steven Spielberg and Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie cutting big checks.
The real change on Prop 8 when the somewhat movement style of the campaign became more of a classically “No” on an initiative campaign.
This hard-hitting ad below went right at the claim that same-sex marriage means preaching an alternative lifestyle in the schools. State schools chief Jack O’Connell, speaking directly to camera, called the charge absolutely false.
This very effective ad against Prop 8, featuring state schools chief Jack O’Connell, appears to have arrested a slide.
Then the state’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, weighed in with a very hard-hitting ad that began running a few days ago. Here it is below.
Senator Dianne Feinstein’s very effective ad against Prop 8, the repeal of same-sex marriage rights in California.
These late moves should be enough to defeat Prop 8.
Feinstein also weighs in heavily, along with Schwarzenegger and Brown, on Prop 5, a controversial measure to change the state’s drug laws. Feinstein has called it a “drug dealer’s bill of rights,” and today every living governor of California, Republican and Democrat, came together to denounce it. That’s Schwarzengger, Gray Davis, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, and Jerry Brown, now the state’s attorney general.
Prop 5’s prospects are not good.
While California is a center-left state, it’s also a tough-on-crime state. Now if only they can get the prison system to work properly.
Social conservatives have a better shot on Prop 4, the perennial attempt to require parental notification on teen abortions. I think Californians are of two minds about this. Certainly this is something a parent should know. On the other hand, there are quite a few dysfunctional families.
Prop 1A, high speed rail bonds, is an idea that has been popular in the past, but has been put off as other seemingly more pressing needs in infrastructure and education have come to the fore. Now it may just be at the wrong time, in the midst of a pronounced economic slump.
Prop 7 is a plan to accelerate California’s already strong requirements for renewable energy use. It’s opposed both by the utilities and a great many environmentalists, for different reasons, and looks to be going down.
Prop 10 is Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens’ attempt to promote bonds for alternative fuel use. It so happens he’s in that business now. This looks self-interested, but should be closer.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and good government reformers are pushing hard with Prop 11 to take redistricting out of the politicians’ hands.
Then there’s Prop 11, which I’ve written about a lot, Schwarzenegger’s joint venture with reformers like Common Cause and the League of Women Voters to change the redistricting process.
The current system encourages hyperpartisanship, as both parties seek to create the safest seats possible for core party members. And then folks wonder why the Legislature lacks the ability to work together.
Schwarzenegger seemed confident yesterday about Prop 11’s prospects, even though these initiatives – including one he sponsored in 2005 – has always been defeated in the past.
But this time, as he noted, there are some 2300 organizations around the state that have endorsed. His side is running good ads and the opposition looks to be in some disarray.
And the tracking polls for Prop 11 are good.
So there could be some history coming out of California on election night. Not only the landslide for Obama, which I suspect will be a real marker for top of the ticket races in the Golden State, but quite likely historic affirmations for same-sex marriage and for reform of the way that redistricting is done.
Barack Obama’s positive closer ad. “Something’s happening in America … endorsed by Warren Buffett and Colin Powell.”
** ABC NEWS/WASHPOST NATIONAL TRACK: OBAMA BY 8. The new daily tracking poll shows only the slightest slip in the race, with Barack Obama leading John McCain, 52% to 44%. President Bush is a major drag on McCain.
IT IS impossible to forecast how important any presidency will be. Back in 2000 America stood tall as the undisputed superpower, at peace with a generally admiring world. The main argument was over what to do with the federal government’s huge budget surplus. Nobody foresaw the seismic events of the next eight years. When Americans go to the polls next week the mood will be very different. The United States is unhappy, divided and foundering both at home and abroad. Its self-belief and values are under attack.
For all the shortcomings of the campaign, both John McCain and Barack Obama offer hope of national redemption. Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead. …
The Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as “agents of intolerance” now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia—to warn Russia off immediately—was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. …
There is no getting around the fact that Mr Obama’s résumé is thin for the world’s biggest job. But the exceptionally assured way in which he has run his campaign is a considerable comfort. It is not just that he has more than held his own against Mr McCain in the debates. A man who started with no money and few supporters has out-thought, out-organised and outfought the two mightiest machines in American politics—the Clintons and the conservative right.
Political fire, far from rattling Mr Obama, seems to bring out the best in him: the furore about his (admittedly ghastly) preacher prompted one of the most thoughtful speeches of the campaign. On the financial crisis his performance has been as assured as Mr McCain’s has been febrile. He seems a quick learner and has built up an impressive team of advisers, drawing in seasoned hands like Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. Of course, Mr Obama will make mistakes; but this is a man who listens, learns and manages well.
It is hard too nowadays to depict him as soft when it comes to dealing with America’s enemies. Part of Mr Obama’s original appeal to the Democratic left was his keenness to get American troops out of Iraq; but since the primaries he has moved to the centre, pragmatically saying the troops will leave only when the conditions are right. His determination to focus American power on Afghanistan, Pakistan and proliferation was prescient. He is keener to talk to Iran than Mr McCain is— but that makes sense, providing certain conditions are met. …
This cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfill his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.
** NATIONAL JOURNAL RED STATE BATTLEGROUND POLLS: EDGE FOR OBAMA. The National Journal polls of five red states shows Barack Obama with an edge over John McCain in each. Colorado, 48-44. Florida, 45-44. North Carolina, 47-43. Ohio, 48-41. Virginia, 48-44.
** TV AD WARS. Barack Obama, as the frontrunner, has two closer ads which begin running on Friday. The positive uplift version, seen above, and the he’s-backward-looking-and-a-continuation-of-Bush version, seen below.
Incidentally, I believe that President Bush is the first president in history never to make a public campaign appearance in the general election on behalf of any of his party’s candidates for any office.
John McCain, who is trailing, is still all negative in his advertising. His latest, which tries to tie Obama to Islamic jihadists, is seen below.
** COMING UP LATER TODAY … COLUMNS ON THE RESOLVING CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS AND THE DEMOCRATS’ WESTERN STRATEGY.
Barack Obama’s 30-minute infomercial aired last night on TV nets around the US.
** TIME MAGAZINE/CNN BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS: OBAMA LEADS IN NEVADA, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, AND PENNSYLVANIA. The new Time/CNN polls of more key battleground states show Barack Obama ahead of John McCain. Here are the numbers. Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43. North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46. Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45. Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47.
** FIELD POLL: CALIFORNIA LANDSLIDE FOR OBAMA SEEN BIGGER THAN REAGAN WINS. The new Field Poll of California likely voters shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain, 55% to 33%. This is the biggest pre-election lead for any candidate since World War II. Ronald Reagan’s leads in the Golde State were smaller than this.
Sarah Palin is very popular with Republican voters. Very unpopular with Democrats, of course. And equally unpopular with independents.
Barack Obama’s negative closer ad, “Rearview Mirror,” lashes John McCain to the mast of the economic policies of President Bush.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S).For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From Tuesday’s column.
John McCain’s new TV ad holds out the prospect that Barack Obama would agree with the Islamic jihadist agenda of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Sarasota, Florida, Virginia Beach, Virginia, and Columbia, Missouri.
Joe Biden is in Arnold, Missouri and Williamsport and Allentown, Pennslvania.
John McCain is in Defiance, Sandusky, Elyria, and Mentor, Ohio.
Sarah Palin is in Cape Girardeau, Missouri and Erie and Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears in downtown Los Angeles this morning to announce creation of the bipartisan Commission on the 21st Century Economy that will address California’s chronic budget crisis and modernize our state’s tax laws.
The former action superstar also holds three campaign events today.
At 10:30 AM, he has a No on 5 event in downtown LA with former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, former Governor Pete Wilson, former Governor Gray Davis, former Governor George Deukmejian, LA District Attorney Steve Cooley, former eBay CEO and McCain campaign national co-chair Meg Whitman, and various law enforcement officials from around the state. Proposition 5 would decriminalize various drug crimes. Opponents say it would also shorten parole for methamphetamine dealers and let drug dealers out of prison sooner.
At 1:30 PM, Schwarzenegger gives a speech boosting Proposition 11, the redistricting reform initiative he chairs, in Universal City.
At 3:30 PM, Schwarzenegger holds a virtual town hall meeting on Prop 11 with leaders of AARP and other reform groups.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama’s brand new attack ad cites John McCain’s past statements of economic ignorance, closing out with his saying he may have to rely on his vice president, then a shot of a winking Sarah Palin.
** END OF DAY. Well, not really. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama hit Kississimee (I’m not making that up, BC fans), Florida at 11 PM tonight for a big rally tuned to the late news cycle.
Anyway, let’s see. John McCain attacked Obama as a socialist who is pro-Iran, pro-PLO (er, they’re US allies now), and pro-something else that escapes me at the moment. Obama had his big 30-minute “infomercial” on multiple TV nets. It hasn’t aired yet in much of the country, but I’ve seen it.
It’s good, beautifully produced, well-sequenced beginning with Obama speaking about the deep struggles of regular Americans, with the the program focusing in on him talking with representative folks and them talking about their own lives. Then, midway through, sequeing into Obama and his life, the struggles of his mixed family, and encomiums to Obama from very popular political leaders in battleground states. Then, at the 25-minute point, the show flipped from production to live, with Obama wrapping up a speech in a packed arena in Florida.
What the program did is recall the principal tenets of the Kennedy campaigns of the 1960s. Identify with people in trouble, explain what you’ll do, and present it all with a build to images of excellence.
Excellence, incidentally, is elite. It is not elitist.
Let’s see, the other stuff in California. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared at a rally outside the state Capitol with a panoply of political figures from both parties and various reform leaders, all in support of Prop 11, the redistricting reform initiative. Prop 11 picked up the endorsement of Democratic state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. Other statewide Dems are neutral. Schwarzenegger expresssed more than a little cautious optimism about this initiative.
I’ll run down the other California initiatives tomorrow. But things are looking better for No on 8, the campaign to defend the right of same-sex marriage. Bad for Prop 5, a decriminilization measure. Questionable for big money measures on high-speed rail – which Schwarzenegger is backing – and two alterntive energy measures opposed by many enviros.
Also in trouble, longtime right-wing icon Tom McClintock, the termed-out Southern California state senator seeking to hold on to a longtime Republican congressional seat 400 miles to the north, being abandoned by right-wing Congressman John Dolittle, an Abramoff scandal figure.
** ARIZONA POLL: MCCAIN BY 2. The brand new Arizona State University poll of Arizona, John McCain’s home state, shows a very close race. It’s McCain 46%, Barack Obama 44%. McCain has started running robocalls in his own state, and other forms of advertising may be close behind.
** TIME MAGAZINE/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS: OBAMA UP IN COLORADO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, DOWN IN MISSOURI AND GEORGIA. The new Time/CNN poll of several battleground states contains mostly good news for Barack Obama. He has big leads in two longtime red states, Colorado and Virginia, a smaller lead in Florida, and trails John McCain narrowly in Missouri, a longtime battleground state, and Georgia, a brand new battleground state.
Obama leads Colorado, 53-45. Obama leads Virginia, 53-44. Obama leads Florida, 51-47. McCain leads Missouri, 50-48. And McCain leads Georgia, 52-47. President Bush won all five of those states in his close two elections.
In Colorado, over-50 voters are moving from McCain to Obama.
** MARIST POLLS: BIG OBAMA LEAD IN PENNSLVANIA, SMALL LEAD IN OHIO. In the new Marist Polls of battlegrounds Pennsylvania – long identified as a must takeaway state for John McCain – and Ohio, Barack Obama is in the lead. In Pennsylvania, its Obama, 54-41 amongst likely voters. In Ohio, it’s Obama, 48-45.
** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL: EARLY VOTE SKEWING OBAMA. The new ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that around 60% of early voters have gone for Barack Obama. This is the opposite of what happened in 2000 and 2004, when an equivalent proportion went with President Bush.
** MCCAIN BURNED BY THE ASSOCIATION GAME. One of the elements in the “Manchurian candidate” fantasy about the Barack Obama spun by elements of the far right is that he is supposedly close to a dangerous Palestinian operative named Rashid Khalidi. Some say he was a top aide to Yasser Arafat, though top reporters say no. (Incidentally, Arafat became an ally of the US.) What we do know is that he is an Ivy League professor.
Obama has significant leads over McCain in four red states won by President Bush. He’s up 12 in Nevada, 9 in Colorado, 7 in Virginia, and 7 in Ohio. Obama and McCain are tied in two other red states, Florida and North Carolina.
Obama has huge leads in two states McCain has tried very hard to take away, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Obama is up 12 in Pennsylvania, where the Republican ticket practically found a home away from home, and a whopping 18 in New Hampshire, the state which jump-started McCain’s career in presidential politics in 2000, and revived it in 2008.
** QUINNIPIAC SWING STATE POLLS: OBAMA WELL UP IN PENNSYLVANIA AND OHIO, BARELY IN FLORIDA. The new Quinnipiac polls of those swing states show John McCain making up some late ground on Barack Obama, but still well behind in two out of three. No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three big states.
Obama leads McCain in Pennsylvania, 53-41, Ohio, 51-42, and Florida, barely, 47-45. McCain’s improvement, which amounts to a few points in each state, is due to winning back some white voters. This is why Obama is campaigning with Bill Clinton in Florida.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN TAKES HIS LAST SHOT(S).For all the rumor-mongering about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate,” there is no silver bullet to defeat the vampire that haunts the nightmares of the far right. Reality is dawning. … From yesterday’s column.
John McCain’s brand new attack ad hits Barack Obama as a show horse, an inexperienced tax & spender who is “Not ready – yet.” Apparently aimed at voters who like Obama but aren’t sure.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Raleigh, North Carolina and and Sunrise and Kissimmee, Florida. Obama speaks live as part of a 30-minute TV special on many TV nets tonight. He’s joined in Kississimee, Florida, after the special, by Bill Clinton.
Joe Biden is in Jupiter and Sunrise, Florida.
Michelle Obama is in Rocky Mount and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Miami, Tampa, and Palm Beach, Florida.
Sarah Palin is in Toledo, Bowling Green, and Chillicothe, Ohio and Jeffersonville, Indiana.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigns for the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative today. He has a noon event at the state Capitol where he is joined by former elected officials of both political parties including former Senator Dede Alpert, former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte, former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, former Assemblywoman Tricia Hunter and former Assemblyman Bob Pacheco.
This afternoon, he’s in the San Francisco Bay Area at the Concord Chamber of Commerce, joined by Keith McMahon, President & CEO of the Concord Chamber of Commerce, Jeannine English, State President of AARP California, Jim Wunderman, President & CEO of the Bay Area Council and Derek Cressman, Western States Regional Director of Common Cause
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. That didn’t arrest the slide. Yesterday’s stock market jump in the US may have, as oil is up a few dollars over yesterday’s trading, with some believing the global economic slump may be less disastrous.
The drop of over $81 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama delivered his “closing argument” speech yesterday in Canton, Ohio.
** NO ON 8 STABILIZES WITH NEW ADVERTISING. The No on Prop 8 campaign, rocked back on its heels by aggressive advertising by the opponents of same-sex marriage, is stabilizing with two new ads. The first, which began running late last week, pushes back hard at the claim that upholding the California Supreme Court’s ruling establishing the right of same-sex marriage would require that schools teach homosexuality, with state schools chief Jack O’Connell doing a good job making the argument.
Former President Bill Clinton joins Obama to campaign together in Florida tomorrow.
These are the two big battleground states carried by President Bush. Without both of them, the Republicans cannot win.
How is the Joe the Plumber stuff playing for McCain? In Ohio, home state of the actual Sam Wurzelbacher, Obama leads McCain amongst white working class voters, 52% to 38%.
Half the voters in both states believe that McCain would continue the highly unpopular policies of President George W. Bush.
** NEVADA POLL: OBAMA BY 10. Barack Obama has opened up a big lead in battleground Nevada in the new Suffolk University poll, 50% to 40%, over John McCain. The Silver State, as I wrote in January 2007, is proving to be a great takeaway for the Democrats.
I have an upcoming column about the Democrats’ New West strategy.
** GEORGIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 1. In the new Insider Advantage poll of Georgia, which no one saw as a battleground state, John McCain barely leads Barack Obama, 48% to 47%. Georgia has gone Republican in presidential races for approximately ever.
** CALIFORNIA POLL: OBAMA BY 27. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the brand new Rasmussen poll of the Golden State by a whopping 61% to 34%. Not only do California voters see Obama as best on the economy, they see him as best on national security, too!
Obama has a 67% favorable rating in California. McCain has a 44% favorable rating. Sarah Palin is a drag on the ticket in California, as I said she would be from the beginning. There is a reason why McCain campaign officials like Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman who are thinking of running for governor in 2010 are limiting their public appearances. But that won’t stop ads if either actually does run for governor.
** FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Florida, 51% to 47%, in the new Rasmussen poll. Obama, running mate Joe Biden, and former President Bill Clinton are all converging on the Sunshine State to try to lock it down.
** OHIO POLL: OBAMA BY 4. Barack Obama leads John McCain in battleground Ohio, 49% to 45%, in the new Rasmussen poll. This is the first time there’s been any separation in this Republican-owned poll of th Buckeye State since McCain led five weeks ago.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chester, Pennsylvania and Harrisonburg and Norfolk, Virginia. Obama is locking down Pennsylvania and Florida.
Joe Biden is in Ocala and Melbourne, Florida. The Sunshine State, where Obama leads, remains highly competitive. That’s why Obama will campaign there on Wednesday with former President Bill Clinton.
Michelle Obama is in Las Vegas, New Mexico and Springs, Colorado. Her appearance on last night’s Tonight Show went quite well.
John McCain is in Hershey and Quakertown, Pennsylvania and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Sarah Palin is in Hershey, Quakertown, Shippensburg, and University Park, Pennsylvania. She and McCain are banging away in Pennsylvania, to no apparent avail.
John McCain’s latest attack ad against Barack Obama says he, McCain, is “proven, for a stronger America.”
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the LA area today for private meetings and conversations and environmental events. He installs the last of 1,727 solar panels on the rooftop of the STAPLES Center in downtown Los Angeles. The event will be webcast live at 1:45 PM on www.gov.ca.gov. Later in the afternoon he tours the Contessa manufacturing plant in Commerce, which is the first frozen food facility in the world to be certified as a green building under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design rating system.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From last Tuesday’s column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
The drop of over $8r per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama’s new attack ad says John McCain is out of touch, out of ideas, and running out of time.
** THE FAR RIGHT CRACK-UP. DRUDGE ASKS, RE OBAMA: ABCCBSNBCNYTLATWSJCNNMSNBCAPREUTERSAFPPOLITCO FTTIMEWASHPOSTNEWSWEEK:CAN THEY ALL BE WRONG?
** ARNOLD CALLS SPECIAL SESSION ON DAY AFTER ELECTION. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has called the California Legislature – lameduck though it will be, back into session on November 5th to deal with the, deepening, chronic California budget crisis. There will be fewer Democrats, but also more lameduck Republicans. You can do the math.
** PALIN REFUSES TO URGE A STEVENS RESIGNATION. U.S. Senator Ted Stevens, the senior senator from Alaska, has today been convicted – not at all surprisingly – on multiple counts of political corruption. Yet Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the supposed maverick from the Great White North, has notably declined to urge him to step down.
Palin, as I have reported earlier, was actually a co-director of a Stevens political action committee. Which did not fit in with the far right storyline on her. But did have the virtue of according with reality.
I looked at Palin early on, and rejected her as a potential VP as it was perfectly obvious to me that she had done nothing that qualified her for the office and, worse, lacked the intellectual qualifications for the White House. And if that offends anyone who imagines that inclination is the same as intellect, so be it, sport.
Here is my prediction. I have identified Palin as, in reality, a good old girl of Alaska’s corrupt politics. She will not call for her erstwhile mentor to step down, especially as it is increasingly obvious that she and John McCain will lose the national election for an anxious Republican Party.
There is what is faux and what is true. This is what is true.
** ARIZONA POLL: MCCAIN BY 5. John McCain’s lead in his home state of Arizona is just five points over Barack Obama, 51% to 46%, in the brand new Rasmussen poll. This dramatically illustrates how the Democrats’ new Western strategy is working. Were McCain’s not Arizona’s longtime senator, this state would be going the way of New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Obama leads in his home state of Illinois by a whopping 61-32.
** VIRGINIA POLL: OBAMA BY 9. The new Survey USA poll of battleground Virginia shows Barack Obama holding a large and steady lead over John McCain, 52% to 43%. Virginia hasn’t gone Democratic in a presidential race since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater, who held McCain’s Senate seat before him. Virginia has had heavy early voting, mostly for Obama, who has an extraordinary field operation my ancestral state.
** MOST THINK BILL AYERS ATTACKS HURT MCCAIN, NOT OBAMA. John McCain’s campaign attacks against Barack Obama for his attenuated relationship with ex-domestic terrorist Bill Ayers have backfired, according to the Republican-owned Rasmussen poll. The numbers show that only 28% of likely voters felt the attacks hurt Obama, 15% had no opinion one way or another, and a whopping 50% felt the attacks actually hurt McCain.
The Bill Ayers stuff has been pushed incessantly by the right-wing blogosphere and talk radio. And now it has fallen flat.
NWN predicted from the beginning that the Ayers attacks wouldn’t work. The connection is far more attenuated than the fervid imaginings of the far right had it. And the issues are so much bigger. I could be linked to be both the far right and the far left if someone wanted to play that silly assocation game about my views.
Barack Obama spoke to a crowd of more than 100,000 yesterday in Denver, Colorado, the largest rally of the campaign.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK
Eight days. Eight days until Barack Obama likely makes history as the first African American president of the United States.
Democrats are poised on the verge of an historic, across-the-board victory. Last week, top Republicans told me they expect not only an Obama victory, but also the loss of 5 to 8 seats in the U.S. Senate and 30-plus in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, California’s elections – Obama has a massive 56-33 lead in the Golden State – focus on the panoply of ballot propositions. There are two controversial measures, ironically opposed by most of the environmental community, to promote renewable energy, a high-speed rail measure that may, shortsightedly, fall prey to bad economic times, and yet another attempt to require parental notification on teen abortions. Along with the two highest-profile propositions, the attempt to repeal the Supreme Court-granted right to same-sex marriage and the attempt to pass the first major redistricting reform initiative.
But before getting to those, back to Obama v. John McCain.
The campaign this week is playing out mostly in longtime red states, where Obama is on the offensive. I wrote in the last MMQB that Obama’s national lead was likely to dip last week, then expand again. It didn’t dip last week. There are a few signs it is dipping now. But not much.
John McCain, speaking to camera in this brand new TV ad, acknowledges that the Bush/Cheney years haven’t worked, pledges to do better, and warns that Barack Obama is a big taxer with bad judgment.
McCain is trying to win Pennsylvania, a blue state where Obama’s notorious San Francisco fundraiser “Bittergate” comments hurt him in the primary against Hillary Clinton. But McCain’s not Clinton. He has yet to articulate a credible economic message in times of economic turmoil, falling back repeatedly on the tried and true Republican standby that Obama, like all Democrats in Republican campaigns, is a big tax-and-spender. That won’t work in Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Obama is on the offensive in the Mountain West, which is turning for him as Gary Hart hoped and anticipated would happen for Democrats 20 years ago. And in the Midwest and selected Southern states.
Bill Clinton, incidentally, joins Obama on the campaign trail this week in Florida and perhaps elsewhere.
Team McCain is left to play a mixed game of limited offense and a lot of defense. Look for themes this week of Obama as closet socialist and McCain as the best commander-in-chief, with McCain belatedly trying to separate himself from the albatross known as Bush/Cheney.
And a helping of fear about what unquestioned Democratic control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House would mean. In a bad way, of course.
In California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger – with the state’s finances settling down in the short-term through successfull sales of the usual revenue anticipation notes – is fixing to call a post-election special session of the Legislature to deal with the deepening nature of the state’s chronic budget crisis.He is also looking to pull off – with the assistance of Common Cause, the League of Women Voters, former Controller and Obama honcho Steve Westly, and former Governor Gray Davis – the first successful redistricting reform initiative, Prop 11. There’s a decent chance that will happen.
And supporters of same-sex marriage appear to have stabilized their campaign against Prop 8, which has been buoyed by big money from members of the Mormon Church, which has only a small presence in California, and hard-hitting ads featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s highly impolitic comments that gay marriage is here to stay “Whether you like it or not!”
The No on 8 campaign had something of the feel of a movement, identity politics campaign, but has recouped with hard-hitting ads attacking what it calls the lies of the Yes on 8 campaign that affirming the right to same-sex marriage will require the teaching of homosexuality in the schools. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell does a deft job of making the argument in the new ads.
So, another week of rollicking action in store …
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Canton, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Joe Biden is in Greenville, North Carolina and New Port Richey, Florida.
John McCain is in Cleveland and Dayton, Ohio and Pottsville and Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Sarah Palin is in Leesburg, Fredericksburg, and Salem, Virginia and Hershey, Pennsylvania.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with California legislative leaders this morning to discuss a special legislative session on the deepening chronic state budget crisis for next month. And he campaigns for the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative today in Fresno.
He’s joined at the Fresno County Farm Bureau this morning by Fresno Mayor and former Heat of the Night star Alan Autry, Fresno Police Chief Jerry Dyer, Amy Huerta of the Fresno Chamber of Commerce, Francine Farber of the League of Women Voters of Fresno and Paul Wenger, First Vice President of the California Farm Bureau Federation.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From last Tuesday’s column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my recent Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna on Friday, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
The drop of over $8r per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
“What would Don Draper do?” From an advertising standpoint – which I am about to get into, once again – and an existential standpoint, that is the question for my friends in the McCain campaign. The Mad Men season finale, which will be much picked about on NWN, is Sunday night on AMC.This is lead actor Jon Hamm, in character, in part of his hosting chores on Saturday night’s Saturday Night Live.
** OBAMA TARGETS “CLOSING ARGUMENT” FOR MONDAY IN OHIO. Seeking to lock down the Buckeye State four days before the arrival of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Barack Obama will deliver a speech on Monday in Canton, Ohio that lays out his economic program and why it is best for Ohio and other deeply troubled Heartland America states in this time of serious recession.
Quantum of Solace, sequel to the smash 2006 reboot of the Bond franchise, Casino Royale, opens in the UK on October 31 and in the US on November 14. The film starts about an hour after the conclusion of the previous picture.
Obama also drew 85,000 to his Democratic nomination acceptance speech in Denver at the end of August, with thousands more outside Mile High Stadium trying to find a way in.
The freshman Ilinois senator also drew over 200,000 to a speech in Berlin over the past summer.
** A FUTURE SCENARIO FROM FUNDAMENTALIST LEADER JAMES DOBSON. This is “Letter From 2012 In Obama’s America,” sent out to millions of Christian fundamentalist voters around the US by Colorado-based right-wing fundamentalist leader James Dobson and his Focus On The Family. The fundamentalist right has a long history of providing extreme scenarios on the eve of presidential elections, but this one is particularly in the sci-fi realm.
October 22, 2012
Dear friends,
I can hardly sing “The Star Spangled Banner” any more. When I hear the words,
O say, does that star spangled banner yet wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?
I get tears in my eyes and a lump in my throat. Now in October of 2012, after seeing what
has happened in the last four years, I don’t think I can still answer, “Yes,” to that question. We
are not “the land of the free and the home of the brave.” Many of our freedoms have been taken
away by a liberal Supreme Court and a majority of Democrats in both the House and the Senate,
and hardly any brave citizen dares to resist the new government policies any more. …
Many
Christians voted for Obama – younger evangelicals actually provided him with the needed
margin to defeat John McCain – but they didn’t think he would really follow through on the far
left policies that had marked his entire previous career. They were wrong. …
Finally the far-left had the highest prize: complete control of the Supreme Court. And
they set about quickly to expedite cases by which they would enact the entire agenda of the far
left in American politics – everything that they had hoped for and more just took a few key
decisions.
Same-sex marriage
The most far-reaching transformation of American society came from the Supreme
Court’s stunning affirmation, in early 2010, that homosexual marriage was a “constitutional”
right that had to be respected by all 50 states because laws barring same-sex marriage violated
the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution. Suddenly homosexual marriage was the law
of the land in all 50 states and no state legislature, no state Supreme Court, no state
Constitutional amendment, not even Congress had any power to change it. …
After that decision, many other policies changed, and several previous Supreme Court
cases were reversed rather quickly — raising the question, “Is America still the land of the free?”
(1) Boy Scouts: “The land of the free”? The Boy Scouts no longer exist as an
organization. They chose to disband rather than be forced to obey the Supreme Court decision
that they would have to hire homosexual scoutmasters and allow them to sleep in tents with
young boys. …
Abortion
(15) Freedom of Choice Act: Congress lost no time in solidifying abortion rights under
President Obama. In fact, Obama had promised, “The first thing I’ll do as President is sign the
Freedom of Choice Act” (July 17, 2007, speech to the Planned Parenthood Action Fund).21
This Federal law immediately nullified hundreds of state laws that had created even the
slightest barrier to abortion.22 Now states can no longer require parental involvement for minors
who wish to have an abortion, or any waiting period, or any informed consent rules, or any
restrictions on late-term abortions. The act reversed the Hyde Amendment, so that the
government now funds Medicaid abortions for any reason. As a result, the number of abortions
has increased dramatically. The Freedom of Choice Act also reversed the Partial Birth Abortion
Ban Act of 2003, so that infants can be killed outright just seconds before they would be born
alive. …
Pornography
(18) Pornography: “The land of the free”? It’s almost impossible now to keep any
children from seeing pornography. The Supreme Court in 2011 nullified all Federal
Communications Commission restrictions on obscene speech or visual content in radio and TV
broadcasts, and television programs at all hours of the day now contain explicit portrayals of
sexual acts. …
Gun ownership
(19) Guns: “The land of the free”? It is now illegal for private citizens to own guns for
self defense in eight states, and the number is growing with increasing Democratic control of
state legislatures and governorships. …
Military policy
In his role as Commander in Chief, President Obama has been reluctant to send our
armed forces to any new overseas commitment.
(21) Iraq: “The home of the brave”? President Obama fulfilled his campaign promise and
began regular withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, completing it in the promised 16 months, by
April, 2010. 31All was peaceful during those months, but then in May, 2010, Al Qaida operatives
from Syria and Iran poured into Iraq in a flood and completely overwhelmed the Iraqi security
forces. A Taliban-like oppression has now taken over in Iraq, and hundreds of thousands of
“American sympathizers” have been labeled as traitors, imprisoned, tortured, and killed. The
number put to death may soon reach into the millions.
Al Qaida leaders have been emboldened by what they are calling this American “defeat”
and their ranks are swelling in dozens of countries.
(22) Terrorist attacks: “The home of the brave”? President Obama directed U.S.
intelligence services to cease all wiretapping of alleged terrorist phone calls unless they first
obtained a specific court warrant for each case. Terrorists captured overseas, instead of being
tried in military tribunals, are now given full trials in the U.S. court system, and they have to be
allowed access to a number of government secrets to prepare their defense.
Since 2009 terrorist bombs have exploded in two large and two small U.S. cities, killing
hundreds, and the entire country is now fearful, for no place seems safe. …
(23) Russia: “The home of the brave”? As Vice President Joe Biden had predicted on
Oct. 20, 2008, some hostile foreign countries “tested” President Obama in his first few months in
office. 32 The first test came from Russia. In early 2009 they followed the pattern they had begun
in Georgia in 2008 and sent troops to occupy and re-take several Eastern European countries,
starting with the Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. …
Then in the next three years Russia occupied additional countries that had been previous
Soviet satellite nations, including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, with no military response from the U.S. or the UN. Meetings of NATO heads of state have severely
condemned Russia’s actions each time but they could never reach consensus on any military
action. …
(24) Latin America: President Obama has also moved to deepen U.S. ties and U.S. trade
with Communist regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia, regimes that had long enjoyed the
favor of far-left factions in the Democratic Party. Several other Latin American countries now
seem ready to succumb to insurgent Communist revolutionary factions funded and armed by
millions of petrodollars from Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
(25) Israel: “The home of the brave”? In mid-2010 Iran launched a nuclear bomb which
exploded in the middle of Tel Aviv, destroying much of that city. They then demanded that Israel
cede huge amounts of territory to the Palestinians, and after an anguished all-night cabinet
meeting, Israel’s Prime Minister agreed. Israel is now reduced to a much smaller country, hardly
able to defend itself, and its future remains uncertain. President Obama said that he abhorred
what Iran had done and he hoped that the UN would unanimously condemn this crime against
humanity. He also declared that the U.S. would be part of any international peacekeeping force if
authorized by the UN, but the Muslim nations in the UN have so far prevented any UN action. …
And, you get the gist. It’s Hell on Earth. All because enough young evangelical voters failed to recognize Obama as what he really was. Not that, in the real world of politics, young evangelical voters will actually make the difference in this election.
** FRINGE RIGHT LAWSUIT ABOUT OBAMA CITIZENSHIP TOSSED. That wacky theory that Barack Obama isn’t really an American – remember all the Sargasso Strait conspiracy theories about “Manchurian candidate” Obama – was tossed yesterday in court. The poor soul bringing the suit couldn’t quite decide whether Obama is really a Kenyan or an Indonesian. Not to mention whether his birth certificate in Hawaii is real.
We’ve seen this sort of nonsense before here in California, when the far right Republican candidate for state attorney general against former Governor Jerry Brown let loose a lawsuit by a far right Republican Party official claiming that Brown isn’t really a lawyer. That got laughed out of court, too.
** NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: OBAMA BY 15. The brand new Boston Globe poll of battleground New Hampshire shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 54% to 39%. This state has gone Republican in most presidential races. McCain won the primary there twice, the first time vaulting himself into the front ranks of national politicians, the second time reviving his candidacy for 2008. All to no avail. Sarah Palin is a major drag on the Republican ticket in this last bastion of Yankee conservatism.
This is another red state pickup for Obama. In addition, my former Hart for President colleague, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, will pick up a Republican seat in the U.S. Senate for the burgeoning ranks of Senate Democrats.
** VIRGINIA POLL: OBAMA BY 9. The brand new Public Policy Polling survey of battleground Virginia shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 52% to 43%. The last time this red state went Democratic in presidential politics was in 1964. The McCain campaign has done a wonderful job of insulting the state, where my forebears are from, with the candidate’s brother describing Northern Virginia – where the candidate lives – as “Communist” and one top aide saying Obama isn’t ahead in “the real Virginia.” Actually, he is.
** IOWA POLL: OBAMA BY 15. The brand new poll of battleground Iowa by Research 2000 for an Iowa newspaper chain shows Barack Obama winning easily over John McCain, 54% to 39%. This will be an easy red state takeaway for Obama and the Democrats, notwithstanding McCain campaigning there this weekend in a vain attempt to make up for red state losses to Obama. The Hawkeye State, of course, is where Obama won his breakthrough victory on January 3rd.
** SUNDAY – WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Denver and Fort Collins, Colorado, working to lock down the Centennial State as a takeaway from the red state column. Obama drew a crowd of 50,000 yesterday in Albuquerque, another key state in the Democrats’ Western strategy.
Joe Biden: is in Wilmington, Delaware, off the campaign trail.
John McCain: is in Cedar Falls, Iowa and Zanesville and Lancaster, Ohio. What he’s doing in Iowa is rather mysterious, as you’ll see from new polls. But it remains one of his very few chances for a blue state takeaway in which the Republicans are bleeding red. However, it’s not a real chance. Obama wins Iowa.
SarahPalin is in Tampa and Kissimmee, Florida and Asheville, North Carolina.
The attacks on Obama, much touted on the far right, are simply not working. And McCain retains a degree of affection from most US voters. What he does not have is anything approaching a lead, as the polls are showing Obama cementing a significant lead in the national soundings.
** GLOBAL OBAMA: BIG OPPORTUNITIES, BIGGER CHALLENGES. If he wins, Obama will have the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years. But what sort of challenges will counter the global opportunity that an Obama presidency might afford America? … From my Friday column.
** SATURDAY – WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada and Albuquerque, New Mexico. Obama, back from visiting his critically ill grandmother in Hawaii, is moving to bolster his lead in key Mountain West battleground states.
Joe Biden is in Suffolk, Virginia. The Democratic ticket is working to lock down longtime red state Virginia.
John McCain is in Albuquerque and Mesilla, New Mexico and Waterloo, Iowa. McCain is trying to come back in two battleground states where he currently trails; one of them, Iowa, where he is way behind Obama.
Sarah Palin is in Sioux City and Des Moines, Iowa, Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Tampa, Florida.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger presents the trophy at the 25th Running of the Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita. The race goes off on ABC and ESPN Saturday afternoon. The presentation is expected at 3:45 PM.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From Tuesday’s column.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my Huffington Post column at the end of last week.
Ukrainian supermodel Olga Kurylenko stars in the new Bond film.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
OPEC, meeting in Vienna, announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
Deutsche Bank issued a forecast last weekend that crude oil will trade at $60 per barrel in 2009 amidst a possible “major global recession.”
The drop of over $83 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
** HERE’S HOW TO BEAT OBAMA. HE’S NOT AN AMERICAN CITIZEN! The far right, in the form of the National Review Online and even more fringey sources, again raises the nonsensical point that Barack Obama is not really an American. Or, maybe he is, but maybe he was a citizen of one or two other countries, too. And, er, maybe that would mean he is disqualified from becoming president on January 20, 2009.
I think I’ve heard this before.
Jerry Brown isn’t really a lawyer, so he can’t be the attorney general of California. Even though he graduated from Yale Law School, was a Supreme Court clerk, and the governor of California. Okay, well, he is a lawyer, but he didn’t pay his bar association fees for a few years while he was mayor of Oakland and not practicing law.
Writes Johnson: There are all sorts of reasons for hoping that Barack Hussein Obama will be the next president of the United States. He seems highly intelligent. He has an air of courtesy and sincerity. Unlike the current occupant of the White House, he has no difficulty in orally extemporising a series of grammatical English sentences, each containing a main verb.
Unlike his opponent, he visibly incarnates change and hope, at a time when America desperately needs both. An Obama win could signify the end of race-based politics The legacy of George Bush may take years, if not decades, to determine.
But at present he seems to have pulled off an astonishing double whammy.
However well-intentioned it was, the catastrophic and unpopular intervention in Iraq has served in some parts of the world to discredit the very idea of western democracy.
The recent collapse of the banking system, and the humiliating resort to semi-socialist solutions, has done a great deal to discredit – in some people’s eyes – the idea of free-market capitalism.
Democracy and capitalism are the two great pillars of the American idea.
To have rocked one of those pillars may be regarded as a misfortune.
To have damaged the reputation of both, at home and abroad, is a pretty stunning achievement for an American president.
** GEORGIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 5. In the new Rasmussen poll of Georgia, which no one had seen as a battleground state, John McCain leads Barack Obama, 51% to 46%. Last month, McCain led by 11 points in the Peach State, which was one of the original seven Confederate states.
** MINNESOTA POLL: OBAMA BY 15. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the new Rasmussen poll of battleground Minnesota, 56% to 41%. Obama leads amongst independents, 54-42. Sarah Palin is a net negative in this state in which she was expected to help McCain win.
The Republican national convention was held in St. Paul, Minnesota as part of a national strategy to win this Upper Midwest state.
In seven key swing states — Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia – Obama placed 150% more ad units (53,049 v. 21,106) than McCain between October 6 and October 22, 2008.
Obama’s advertising has been most prolific in Florida, where he ran 15,887 ads between October 6 and October 22, 2008, outpacing McCain’s 4,662 ads by 240%.
The Morning Column: GREENSPAN ACKNOWLEDGES THE OBVIOUS. At yesterday’s hearing of the U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, chaired by Los Angeles Congressman Henry Waxman, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted the obvious.
Which is that the epic financial crisis of Wall Street – which has now spread round the world – was not merely caused by too many risky mortgages. That was a serious problem in itself. But the deeper problem came when various Wall Street institutions, most of them now no longer independent, created speculative investment vehicles atop those mortgages.
“I made a mistake in presuming that the self interest of organizations, specifically banks and others, was such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and the equity in the firms,” Greenspan told his interlocutor Waxman and other members of one of Congress’s most powerful committees.
Greenspan, a staunch deregulationist, ran what has been until now the world’s most powerful central bank from 1987 until 2006. He served, ostensibly, under four presidents. Three of them were Republicans – Ronald Reagan, who appointed Greenspan, George Herbert Walker Bush, and George W. Bush. And one Democrat, Bill Clinton. Greenspan now ackowledges that his staunchly deregulationist ideology has led to results that are from what he anticipated.
“The problem here is that something that looked to be a very solid edifice and indeed a critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down. And that, as I said, shocked me and I don’t fully understand why it happened,” Greenspan said. “And to the extent I figure out where it happened and why, I will change my views. And if the facts change, I will change.”
As a point of disclosure, I’m acquainted with Waxman. He was the chairman of the California delegation to the 1984 Democratic National Convention, and I was a vice chairman of the California delegation. Waxman is one of the very foremost of Jewish-American politicians, as should be obvious, and a very smart guy, as should also be obvious.
Waxman, who has represented Los Angeles in Congress since he was first elected in 1974, is a center-left Democrat. He’s a pragmatist, not an ideologue, as reflected by his role as co-leader – with fellow LA Congressman Howard Berman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee – of one of the nation’s most powerful political machines. Until they both got tired of it.
Hey, it’s a California thing.
Barack Obama’s new ad urges voters to check out how they would do under his tax plan.
** GEORGIA POLL: AN OBAMA-MCCAIN TOSS-UP. The brand-new Insider Advantage poll of Georgia – which no one anticipated would be a battleground state – shows Barack Obama with a slight edge over John McCain in this ultimate state of the old Confederacy, 48% to 47%. Obama appears to have somewhat more room for movement amongst the undecideds than does McCain.
** BACHMANN LOSES LEAD IN MINNESOTA CONGRESSIONAL RACE. Far right Republican Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann has lost her lead in the new Survey USA poll of her race with little-known Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg. Tinklenberg now leads Bachmann, 47% to 44%.
Bachmann appeared on MSNBC’s Hardball with Christ Matthews last week. During the course of her interview, she declared that presidential frontrunner Barack Obama is “anti-American” and went on to call for a thorough investigation of Congress to root out other “anti-Americans.”
In the wake of her interview, the aforementioned Mr. Tinklenberg raised $1 million from upset citizens around the country.
Bachmann represents what is supposed to be a safe, rock-ribbed Republican district. Which is why she felt safe in presenting such preposterous comments on a national television show.
Subsequent to her debacle on MSNBC, she claimed that she was manipulated into calling Obama and other Democratic elected officials “anti-American.” Well, no. I have watched the interview. Bachmann said exactly what she wanted to say. Matthews merely drew her out.
John McCain’s latest attack ad seizes on a Joe Biden comment at a private fundraiser in Seattle about foreign powers testing a new president.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From Tuesday’s column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu, Hawaii, visiting his 85-year old grandmother for what may be the last time.
Joe Biden is in Charleston and Martinsville, West Virginia. Obama, amazingly, in striking distance in the Mountaineer State.
John McCain is in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Durango, Colorado. Longtime red state Colorado is sliding away from the Republicans and McCain is trying to stop it. If Colorado goes, it is virtually impossible for McCain to win.
Sarah Palin is in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri. The Republican ticket continues its last ditch effort to snatch Pennsylvania away from the Democrats. And Palin is also trying to help the ticket hold onto red state Missouri. Where she is actually, as it happens, unpopular.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers a keynote address tonight at the annual NAACP convention in Burlingame, just south of San Francisco Internation Airport.
His Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiation appears to have a halfway decent chance of becoming the first such major initiative to prevail at the ballot box.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my Friday Huffington Post column.
** THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” FANTASY: PARANOIA AND IRONY ABOUND. “He’s … an Arab.” It’s perhaps fitting that last week ended that way for John McCain — face to face, embarrassingly, with an angry supporter sputtering about Barack Obama — given that he began it with a speech playing to the deep swamp of fevered innuendo about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate” out to seize the presidency and take down America. …
The Manchurian candidate ugliness began reaching critical mass over two years ago. That’s when it became apparent that Obama could be the figure of the future in American politics. …
Produced in 1962, The Manchurian Candidate is a darkly satirical view of far right politics in America. It was made with the encouragement of President John F. Kennedy, who was all too aware of the dangers of the paranoid style in American politics, starring his good friend Frank Sinatra, as Sinatra himself recounted in a 1988 documentary on the making of the film. … From a recent column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $64 to $65 per barrel range. OPEC, meeting in Vienna, has just announced a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut. But, with stock markets slumping further in Asia and Europe, this move has failed to arrest the oil slide.
Deutsche Bank issued a forecast over the weekend that crude oil will trade at $60 per barrel in 2009 amidst a possible “major global recession.”
The drop of $83 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and on the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It is clear that that, contrary to much chatter, neither the US nor Israel is about to launch a strike against Iran. And the Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama addressed a large rally yesterday in Richmond, Virginia. Richmond was the capital of the Confederate States of America during the Civil War.
** A GLOBAL PRESIDENT. We’ve spent so much time on US polls. They are resolving in a fairly clear-cut and predictable fashion.
Now, there are a few caveats. In quite a few countries, the great majority of respondents had no opinion on the matter. And a number of key nations were not polled, such as Russia, China, Israel, Iraq, and Iran. Though I’m fairly certain that Obama would be favored in at least four of those five nations, not that he’d want the nod from one or two of them. (McCain was the favorite of Israeli voters prior to Obama’s very high-profile visit in late summer. One poll I saw after the visit showed Obama slightly ahead in Israel.)
But we don’t have those numbers. The results we do have show McCain besting Obama in only two countries. Those countries are Georgia (where McCain’s friend Misha Saakashvili, who employed McCain’s chief foreign policy advisor as his lobbyist, is president, and hasn’t that worked out well for him?) and the Phillipines (where the U.S. Navy is quite popular, with many missing the fabled Subic Bay naval base). Obama and McCain are tied in Lithuania and Pakistan.
Obama is the clear favorite across every country in Latin America and Africa. He is also a huge favorite in such key US allies as Britain (60-15), Australia (64-14), Germany (62-10), Japan (66-15), and South Korea (50-24).
The implications are obvious. Obama has the global popularity that no American president has had in a great many years.
This was obvious to Team McCain, as well, as you know from my columns and can see anew in this coming Sunday’s New York Times Magazine cover story on the turmoil in Republican ranks. (Which is linked to in an item below.) It was critically important to McCain to stop Obama from moving into an insurmountable lead following his big trip to the Middle East and Europe. Which gave rise to the famed “celebrity” ads mocking Obama for his popularity abroad.
** OBAMA AND THE JEWISH VOTE. There has been an enormous amount of controversy around Barack Obama and his relationship with the Jewish community and the State of Israel. But it seems to have resolved very much in Obama’s favor, as I anticipated all along.
A new Gallup Poll shows that Obama leads John McCain – a famous friend of Israel, of far longer standing than President Bush, as it happens – by a whopping 74% to 22%.
Barack Obama’s election night party will be in Chicago’s Grant Park. NWN is credentialed for this event.
John McCain’s election night party is at Phoenix’s Biltmore Hotel. But, as the AP reports: Instead of appearing before a throng of supporters at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix on the evening of Nov. 4, the Republican presidential nominee plans to deliver postelection remarks to a small group of reporters and guests on the hotel’s lawn. Aides said Thursday that the arrangement was due to space limitations and that McCain might drop by the election watch party at some other point.
McCain’s remarks will be piped electronically into the party and media filing center, aides said. Only a small press “pool”—mostly those who have traveled regularly with the candidate on his campaign plane, plus a few local Arizona reporters and others—will be physically present when he speaks.
** MONTANA POLL: OBAMA BY 4. A new Montana State University poll of the Treasure State finds Barack Obama moving into the lead over John McCain, 44% to 40%. Montana, as readers will recall from NWN Game Day coverage in the primaries, was a big win for Obama over Hillary Clinton.
Why the surprising edge for Obama in the this Mountain West state, a regular red state in presidential politics? Obama has a big edge amongst independents. And McCain is seen as running a negative campaign. That Bill Ayers stuff is backfiring.
** CALIFORNIA CONSULTANTS WHO HAVE WON THE NATIONAL CAMPAIGN MANAGER OF THE YEAR AWARD. Yesterday I asked readers to come up with the five Californians who have won the American Association of Political Consultants’ Campaign Manager of the Year award. You all did not come up with all of the winners.
So here they are.
Two Republicans: Steve Schmidt for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Gorton for Governor Pete Wilson.
Three Democrats: Gale Kaufman for No on Schwarzenegger’s special election initiatives, Garry South for Governor Gray Davis, and Kam Kuwata for U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.
You will note that four out of the five have played major roles in campaigns for and against Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Gorton was Schwarzenegger’s chief political consultant in the run-up to the 2003 California recall and was a senior strategist in his election that year. Schmidt was Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign manager when the former action superstar came back from the debacle of 2005’s “Year of Reform.”
Kaufman ran the unified labor and Democratic campaign against Schwarzenegger’s four special election initiatives in that aforementioned year. South worked to dissuade Schwarzenegger from running against Davis in 2002 and was a senior strategist in the effort to defend Davis against Schwarzenegger in the California recall.
Gorton, incidentally, as I mentioned in a clue in yesterday’s NWN Forum, was lionized in the very good cable movie, Spinning Boris, for his seemingly unlikely role in the 1996 re-election of Russian President Boris Yeltsin. He was played by Jeff Goldblum, which is quite amusing, actually. He was also a major character in the cable movie about Arnold Schwarzenegger, See Arnold Run, which jumped back and forth between the younger Arnold defending his Mr. Olympia title in the 1970s and the current Arnold seeking the governorship in the California recall. And was co-produced by and co-starred someone you know.
In addition, regular NWN poster Pat Skipper, who I knew from The X-Files, played Mike Murphy (a frequent choice by posters as one of those national campaign managers of the year) in See Arnold Run. Schwarzenegger’s take, incidentally? “Everybody was so much better looking in the movie about me, except for me and Maria.” Though I don’t believe that Maria Shriver was displeased about being played by Mariel Hemingway.
Al the Shoe Salesman explores the Obama tax plan.
** ABOUT THAT GOOFY A.P. POLL SHOWING OBAMA ONLY UP BY ONE NATIONALLY. Readers keep asking about this poll, which is getting pushed hard by the right-wing media. Here the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder points out the obvious glaring flaw in the poll. There ain’t 45% evangelical Christians in America’s voter pool. This poll, incidentally, was done for the AP by a firm I’ve never heard of. Why AP put it out is an interesting question.
** THE SUNDAY NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE COVER STORY ON WHAT WENT WRONG IN THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN. It’s floating around so much amongst insiders that the NYT has put it online. Here it is. I’ll have more to say about it later. And much more after the election.
** QUINNIPIAC POLLS: OBAMA UP IN OHIO, FLORIDA, AND PENNSYLVANIA. The brand-new Quinnipiac polls of battleground states Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania all show Barack Obama leading John McCain.
President Bush’s approval rating in these three states ranges from 21% to 27%. Sarah Palin is a net negative in favorability all three states for the McCain ticket.
** BIG 10 BATTLEGROUND POLL: BIG OBAMA LEADS IN ALL MIDWESTERN BATTLEGROUND STATES. The universities of the Big 10 Conference have just conducted polls of their Midwestern states, all of which, by coincidence, are key battleground states in the presidential race, aside from Barack Obama’s Illinois. Obama leads John McCain in every one of these states. Last month, the contest was much tighter.
Here are the numbers. In Illinois, not surprisingly, it’s Obama 61-32. Indiana, Obama 51-41. Iowa, Obama 52-39. Michigan, Obama 58-36. Minnesota, Obama 57-38. Ohio, Obama 53-41. Pennsylvania, Obama 52-41. Wisconsin, Obama 53-40.
Barack Obama, of course, has a huge lead in the Golden State, 56% to 33% over John McCain. The Proposition 8 anti-gay marriage initiative is trailing, 44% to 52%. The Prop 11 redistricting reform initiative has gone up some and is leading 41% to 34%, up from last month’s poll. The Prop 4 parental notification on abortion for teen pregnancy initiative is in a very tight race, barely ahead at 46% to 44%.
There’s a big gap in party enthusiasm for the respective ticket toppers. 74% of likely Democratic voters are satisfied with Obama while only 44% of Republicans are satisfied with McCain. Last month, a much higher number, 67%, were satisfied with McCain.
Obama leads McCain amongst all age, education, and income groups. His lead with Latinos. which some Republican strategists said would be a problem for him, is 73% to 18%.
The most dominant issue is the economy, with 51% naming it the top issue. The second highest issue? Well, it only got 6%, so it’s not all that important. 80% of California voters think the state is in recession, and only 20% think the state is on the right track.
Only 40% think the federal bailout of Wall Street will help the California economy.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval is moving back up, to 47%. His budget stand appears to have been a boost for his popularity.
So, what does the poll tell us? That Obama is headed for a very big win in California, bigger than usual for a Democratic presidential candidate. You can also tell this by the relative absence of McCain campaign officials such as McCain national co-chair Meg Whitman and state co-chair Steve Poizner, both possible Republican gubernatorial candidates in 2010, from the side of McCain and Palin.
Prop 8, the anti-gay marriage initiative, may be going down after cutting into the No side’s lead – and taking a lead itself in some polling – with tough TV ads featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom roaring that same-sex marriage is here to stay “Whether you like it or not!” The No on 8 campaign may have stabilized, and I’ll have more on that in another piece.
Prop 4, parental notification on abortion for teen pregnancy, is once again a seesaw issue. I think many Californians are justifiably torn. On the one hand, it’s a crucial decision in which a parent should be involved. On the other, there are a lot of dysfunctional families out there. Right now, it looks like it’s headed for a narrow defeat.
Prop 11, the latest redistricting reform initiative. I think this has a real shot at passage. And I’ll get into the details in a future piece.
Arnold Schwarzenegger? He’s heading back up. He is probably the only chief executive in the country whose job approval rating is going up now. This comes in the wake of his dramatic decision to veto the state budget and his ability to force concessions on the Legislature when its leaders learned that his veto – which he never had to make – could not be overridden. Contrary to their initial crowing. That has big repercussions as the state continues to grapple with a chronic budget deficit that the epic financial crisis has only made worse.
John McCain’s brand-new Joe the Plumber web video.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From Tuesday’s column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Indianapolis, Indiana and Honolulu, Hawaii. Obama ducks into Indy, in hopes of a win in a state no Democrat has carried since 1964, en route to Honolulu to see his grandmother for what may be the last time. After Indy, Obama will be off the campaign trail until Saturday.
Joe Biden is in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Raleigh, North Carolina. Obama and Biden are trying to become the first Democratic ticket to win the Tarheel State since 1964.
John McCain is in Sarasota and Ormond Beach, Florida. McCain is trying to come back in Florida, the frequent lynch pin of Republican presidential victories. McCain is on his “Joe the Plumber” tour.
Sarah Palin is in Troy, Ohio and Beaver, Pennsylvania.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger launching the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative last December in this NWN video.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigns today for the Proposition 11 redistricting reform initiative and for solar energy.
This morning, Schwarzenegger appears in Bakersfield for the launch of the first solar thermal power plant ot come online in 15 years.
This afternoon, Schwarzenegger appears in Palo Alto at an event promoting the redistricting reform initiative, Prop 11, with campaign co-chairman Steve Westly, former State Controller, Jeannine English, State President of AARP California, Karen Clopton, San Francisco President of the League of Women Voters, Dezie Woods Jones, President of Black Women Organized For Political Action, Christopher Dawes, CEO of Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital and Louise Timmer, President of the American Nurses Association/California
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my Friday Huffington Post column.
** THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” FANTASY: PARANOIA AND IRONY ABOUND. “He’s … an Arab.” It’s perhaps fitting that last week ended that way for John McCain — face to face, embarrassingly, with an angry supporter sputtering about Barack Obama — given that he began it with a speech playing to the deep swamp of fevered innuendo about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate” out to seize the presidency and take down America. …
The Manchurian candidate ugliness began reaching critical mass over two years ago. That’s when it became apparent that Obama could be the figure of the future in American politics. …
Produced in 1962, The Manchurian Candidate is a darkly satirical view of far right politics in America. It was made with the encouragement of President John F. Kennedy, who was all too aware of the dangers of the paranoid style in American politics, starring his good friend Frank Sinatra, as Sinatra himself recounted in a 1988 documentary on the making of the film. … From a recent column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $68 to $69 per barrel range. It’s anticipated that there will be an OPEC production cut on Friday to preserve profit margins in the face of the global economic slump.
Deutsche Bank issued a forecast over the weekend that crude oil will trade at $60 per barrel in 2009 amidst a possible “major global recession.”
The drop of $78 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
“13 days” in October determined the fate of the world in 1962, during the Cuban missile crisis. There are 13 days left to determine the fate of this election. As it was then, the coolest, smartest, and most measuredly decisive side will prevail.
** NEW CALIFORNIA POLL. The new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in the Golden State, 56% to 33%, the anti-gay marriage Proposition 8 trailing, 44% to 52%, the redistricting reform Proposition 11 leading, 41% to 34%, and the parental notification on teen abortion Proposition 4 narrowly ahead, 46% to 44%. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating has gone back up to 47%. I’ll have more in the morning.
** END OF DAY (BEFORE THE CALIFORNIA POLL COMES OFF EMBARGO TONIGHT): I’ll have more to say about this, obviously, but I’ve been in touch with top national Republicans and here is my (their) read.
Barack Obama, absent the biggest surprise in modern American political history, is the next president of the United States, with Sarah Palin acknowledged as a notably unsuccessful pick by John McCain. Republicans will lose 5 to 8 seats in the U.S. Senate. Republicans will lose 30 seats or more in the House of Representatives.
** HERE’S A QUESTION: NAME THE CALIFORNIANS WHO’VE BEEN NAMED NATIONAL CAMPAIGN MANAGER OF THE YEAR. Picking up on the previous item … There are five California-based political consultants who have been named Campaign Manager of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants. Who are they? A couple clues. They include three Democrats and two Republicans. And all but one has been a major figure in campaigns for or against Arnold Schwarzenegger.
** DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER MARK MELLMAN DEFENDS STEVE SCHMIDT. Writing in the Washington insider publication The Hill, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman – who helped consultant Gale Kaufman and others defeat all four of Arnold Schwarzenegger ballot measures in 2005’s Year of Reform – today defends John McCain campaign director Steve Schmidt. As Mellman points out, Schmidt was named Campaign Manager of the Year for 2006 by the American Association of Political Consultants for helping resuscitate Schwarzenegger’s political career after the 2005 shellacking that Mellman helped administer. The behind-the-scenes fingerpointing about the state of the McCain campaign, and the Republican effort nationally, is accelerating.
There is a big story coming out in the Sunday New York Times Magazine about all this. I have the story now, but it hasn’t been published yet. Mellman’s column gives more than a few hints about the state of play.
** VIRGINIA, NEVADA, OHIO, NORTH CAROLINA POLLS: OBAMA IN THE LEAD. The new Time/CNN polls of four key battleground states won by President Bush show Barack Obama leading John McCain. In Virginia, it’s Obama, 54-44. In Nevada, it’s Obama, 51-46. In Ohio, it’s Obama, 50-46. And in North Carolina, which few believed would be a battleground state, it’s Obama, 51-47.
One thing that’s going on is that McCain’s attacks on Obama are not getting much traction. Most voters in these key battleground states are familiar with the attacks linking Obama to ex-domestic terrorist Bill Ayers and controversial activist group ACORN, some of whose workers (who get paid bounties for registrations) have turned in fake voter registrations. But the number of voters in those states who say they are troubled by these charges is about the same as the core support for President Bush.
** CALIFORNIA POLL RESULTS COMING UP. I’ll have some key California polling results late today.
** PALIN SAYS MCCAIN SUPPORTS RIGHT-WING SOCIAL AGENDA, ELECTION OUTCOME WILL BE GOD’S WILL. In a radio interview with far right Christian fundamentalist leader James Dobson, Sarah Palin said this morning that John McCain has privately told her that he supports planks in the national Republican platform pushing a constitutional amendment to ban all abortion (including in case of rape and incest), a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, and opposing embryonic stem cell research.
McCain has previously taken contrary positions, though he was silent on the passage of these planks at the Republican national convention at which he was nominated for president.
Is Palin ignorant of what McCain believes? Has McCain changed his positions? Is this another gaffe?
Palin also said this: “It also strengthens my faith because I know at the end of the day putting this in God’s hands, the right thing for America will be done, at the end of the day on Nov. 4.”
** WISCONSIN POLL: OBAMA BY 11. In the new Research 2000 poll of battleground Wisconsin, it’s Barack Obama 52%, John McCain 41%. Obama has a 59% approval rating to McCain’s 43%, so there is no room for growth in McCain’s campaign in the Badger State. I believe that McCain is still running TV ads there, but is stretching out an existing buy rather than investing more funds.
NOTE: There appear to have been some intermittent site problems with the underlying PJM server.
“I’m Joe the Plumber.” John McCain’s brand-new TV attack ad against Barack Obama continues the theme I discussed at the beginning of the week.
** TV AD WARS: MCCAIN’S JOE THE PLUMBER CAMPAIGN (SERIOUSLY). With two weeks to go, it looks like John McCain is going with Joe the Plumber as the advertising centerpiece of his campaign. Still. That seemed in question to me yesterday, as the fellow’s vogue of last week is already fading. But it may be, that absent some fantastic new character attack against Barack Obama, it’s the campaign’s best shot left at attempting to drive an economic message. Talk about your “mad men.”
So McCain has flickery ads with grained-up up the footage, with a message making it sound like Obama will raise everybody’s taxes. I guess that’s what they think they have to do to punch through when Obama is out-gunning them 4 to 1 on the air. You can see one version of a Joe the Plumber ad above, and one below.
McCain has lately been playing that Joe the Plumber card hard, invoking him more than running mate Sarah Palin, who polls show has become a liability outside the conservative Republican base. That means scaring voters about Obama and his “socialist” policies, as McCain put it the other day, as a big tax-and-spender. But in this environment, most voters probably want government to spend in order to stimulate the economy and provide more of a safety net. So the success of this tack depends on the McCain campaign’s ability to convince people that Obama would raise their taxes, and not the taxes of rich people and corporations. … From yesterday’s column.
Barack Obama’s new attack ad describes John McCain as “erratic” and “careening” on the financial crisis.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Richmond and Leesburg, Virginia. The presidential frontrunner is trying to lock down longtime red state Virginia in his long quest to become the first Democrat to carry it since 1964. He’s meeting with top foreign policy and national security advisors in Richmond.
Joe Biden is in Colorado Springs and Pueblo. The Democratic running mate spends a second day in Colorado, a top Democratic target in their new Western strategy, which Republicans may be giving up on.
John McCain is in Goffstown, New Hampshire and Green and Cincinnati, Ohio. McCain is trying to hang on to New Hampshire, but it doesn’t look good. Ohio, on the other hand is a battleground state he can win.
Sarah Palin is in Findlay, Green, and Cincinnati, Ohio.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the LA area today, mainly around First Lady Maria Shriver’s annual California Women’s Conference in Long Beach. Schwarzenegger will participate in a discussion with legendary investor Warren Buffett – once the former action superstar’s chief economic advisor – on the epic financial crisis and the state of the economy. The discussion will be moderated by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, host of Hardball.
Other participants lined up by Shriver include Secretary of State Condi Rice, U2 frontman Bono, former British First Lady Cherie Blair, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and CNN chief international correspondent Christiane Amanpour.
** INSIDE THE “BRADLEY EFFECT.”Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.
The “Bradley effect” — the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race — has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley’s ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn’t so.
I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley’s campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California’s leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California’s first black governor. … From my Friday Huffington Post column.
** THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” FANTASY: PARANOIA AND IRONY ABOUND. “He’s … an Arab.” It’s perhaps fitting that last week ended that way for John McCain — face to face, embarrassingly, with an angry supporter sputtering about Barack Obama — given that he began it with a speech playing to the deep swamp of fevered innuendo about Obama as a “Manchurian candidate” out to seize the presidency and take down America. …
The Manchurian candidate ugliness began reaching critical mass over two years ago. That’s when it became apparent that Obama could be the figure of the future in American politics. …
Produced in 1962, The Manchurian Candidate is a darkly satirical view of far right politics in America. It was made with the encouragement of President John F. Kennedy, who was all too aware of the dangers of the paranoid style in American politics, starring his good friend Frank Sinatra, as Sinatra himself recounted in a 1988 documentary on the making of the film. … From my Wednesday column.
Russia, Iran, and Qatar have agreed to form a “Gas Troika.” The three nations control over 60% of the world’s natural gas reserves.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $68 to $69 per barrel range. It’s anticipated that there will be an OPEC production cut on Friday to preserve profit margins in the face of the global economic slump.
Deutsche Bank issued a forecast over the weekend that crude oil will trade at $60 per barrel in 2009 amidst a possible “major global recession.”
The drop of $78 per barrel since the record high three months ago comes on acknowledgment that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
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