Tina Fey’s dead-on impersonation of Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live was the GOP running mate’s high-water mark.
UPDATE: BASS AGREES TO SCHWARZENEGGER’S TERMS. Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, after having the most minimal press release ever sent out to announce a press conference, has agreed to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s terms to end the current state budget impasse. (See below.)
** A NEW CALIFORNIA BUDGET DEAL? Republican legislative leaders and state Senate leader Don Perata, under threat of a first ever gubernatorial veto of the state budget, have agreed to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s demands that they tighten up the new rainy day reserve fund intended to stave off overspending of unsustainable revenues and that they eliminate the forced borrowing of nearly $2 billion from Californians through accelerated withholding on the personal income tax. Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines had earlier in the day gone on a conservative talk radio show to proclaim that the difference would be made up in further budget cuts, which he did not spell out.
The shortfall would made up by increasing penalties on corporations which underpay their taxes and by reducing the budget reserve. Assembly Speaker Karen Bass was reportedly noncommital and has called a press conference. But the press release from her office arrived here with the usual disclaimer of confidentialy — but sans an actual message in the e-mail.
** UNINTENTIONAL DRUDGE HEADLINE?“Bush says he’s working hard on economic turmoil…”
The series of columns concludes its week-long run tomorrow when I kick things off with a column on Schwarzenegger’s potential legacy. Bearing in mind that he will actually be the governor of California for another two years and four months.
** MOMENTUM SHIFTS OBAMA. The momentum in the presidential race has shifted to Barack Obama. The novelty of Sarah Palin has rather quickly worn off, serious questions about her are sinking in, the financial crisis is hurting John McCain, and Barack Obama and the Democrats have steadied themselves.
All four national tracking polls show the shift in momentum. Obama leads in three of the polls and is tied in the other, in which he trailed before.
Here are the numbers: In the Hotline poll, it’s Obama, 46-42. In the Gallup poll, it’s Obama, 48-44. In the Research 2000 poll, it’s Obama 49-43. In the Rasmussen poll, it’s tied, 48-48.
** INDIANA POLL: OBAMA BY 3. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the new Indianapolis Star poll of battleground Indiana. In this traditionally red state, Obama leads McCain, 47% to 44%. Obama has an unusual shot in the Hoosier State because, as US senator from neighboring Illinois, he is a familiar figure there. Neverthless, his lead is entirely based on his dominance in the Indianapolis media market, where’s up 54-40. He trails McCain everywhere else in the state. The last time a Democrat carried Indiana was in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in a national landslide.
** FLORIDA POLL: MCCAIN BY 6. In the new Survey USA poll of battleground Florida, John McCain leads Barack Obama, 51% to 45%. This is all on McCain’s strength, in large part as a Navy hero of the Vietnam War. He’s taking huge leads in communities near Navy and other military bases. Sarah Palin is not a plus in the Sunshine State. I expect the McCain campaign to keep her out of Florida, where her fundamentalist conservatism rubs many Jewish voters the wrong way. McCain has also lost ground with women voters in Florida since picking Palin.
** LEGISLATIVE LEADERS BACK TO NEGOTIATE WITH SCHWARZENEGGER. With their override of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s promised veto of their state budget not the sure thing they had imagined it to be — see item just below, as well as my Tuesday announcing the promised veto, which explained the situation — Democratic and Republican legislative leaders are back to meeting with Schwarzenegger shortly before noon.
** FIELD POLL: GROWING OPPOSITION TO ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE INITIATIVE, FOLLOWING NEW JERRY BROWN LANGUAGE. The new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, the gay marriage ban initiative on the November California ballot, trailing badly, 38% to 55%. Opposition to the measure has increased since former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown change the ballot language.
Originally, the initiative was titled “Limit On Marriage.” Brown changed the ballot title to “Eliminates Right Of Same-Sex Couples To Marry.” He did this following the state Supreme Court decision, written by a judge first appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan, to legalize gay marriage in California by throwing out the previous ban.
** ABOUT THAT VETO OVERRIDE … This would not have happened before term limits. The rush by legislative leaders of both parties, right after Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced he would veto the California state budget, to proclaim a swift override of Schwarzenegger’s veto.
Yesterday, Schwarzenegger held a budget rally in front of Fresno City Hall, bailiwick of his ally, Fresno Mayor Alan Autry, the former actor and NFL player. He chose Fresno for a reason, as it’s in the political backyard of key Republican legislators.
And now it seems that legislators are backing away from their initial bravado, and back to talking with Schwarzenegger. It seems that the appetite for override isn’t so great as it seemed, especially when it comes to the “revenue acceleration” method of increasing income tax withholding. Something that conservative Republicans in particular want to keep their fingerprints off of, even though it’s implicit in the budget they are forcing upon the Legislature. Games, games, games. Until they’re exposed.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Espanola, New Mexico.
Joe Biden is in Canton, Akron, and Youngstown, Ohio.
John McCain is in Cedar Rapids, Iowa and Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Sarah Palin is in Cedar Rapids, Iowa and Green Bay, Wisconsin.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will have private meetings and conversations in and around the Capitol today. His principal topic, of course, will be his decision to veto the budget sent to him by the Legislature. Teachers and health care providers rallied outside the Capitol yesterday, in favor of his veto decision. Now legislators, who promised a swift override of his veto, which he has not yet issued, are talking about how to avoid the veto.
I kicked things off Monday by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the dramatic 2003 recall?
On Tuesday, the topic was Schwarzenegger on taxes. Yesterday, should he have decided to veto the state budget? Today, what about post-partisanship?
** TERMINATING THE BUDGET (from yesterday’s LA Times column)
Should Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger have decided to veto the California state budget? And what would past governors, such as Schwarzenegger’s immediate predecessor, Gray Davis, have done?
If there is one big thing Schwarzenegger has definitely not solved (and there’s certainly more than one), it’s California’s chronic budget crisis, fed in part by his first act as governor: the extraordinarily popular decision to cut the car tax. Clearly, you don’t want to be in the situation where you are the first governor in California history to veto the state budget. That means the system has failed, and so have you.
But this budget? Outside the state Capitol, it’s going to be hard to round up more than a handful of people who have any regard for this budget. You can sign it, which means you endorse it. Davis certainly signed budgets he didn’t like. And that probably contributed to his recall, as he did the political thing of grinning awkwardly and pretending that he had not just put — to borrow a phrase once much in the news — lipstick on a pig.
Had Davis said, “Stop; this system is broken and I’m going to level with you all about it,” he would probably have been better off — maybe not with some legislators and permanent Capitol staffers, but probably with the people. He certainly knew very well what the problem was.
On the budget, Schwarzenegger, like Davis, is confronted by two extraordinarily stubborn opposing political factions and one bizarre legal quirk, all of which create fiscal entropy in the closed system of the Capitol.
The two factions are the ultra-government faction (principally public employee unions and other advocates for ever-expanding government), which dominates legislative Democrats; and the anti-government faction (far-right ideologues and the anti-tax lobbies), which dominates legislative Republicans. The legal quirk is the nearly unique requirement of a two-thirds legislative vote to pass a budget.
But that’s a given.
What could Schwarzenegger — and Davis, for that matter — have done to get a better budget?
Aside from a huge campaign to alert and activate the public, which has a different view of things than the conservative Republicans’ anti-government faction, Schwarzenegger could have gotten himself some Republican votes. Schwarzenegger had a plan to pressure Democrats to embrace at least some of his proposed budget reforms, and, to an extent, it worked. What he didn’t have was the plan to win over enough Republicans to surmount the two-thirds vote threshold in both legislative houses needed to pass a budget.
Schwarzenegger has flourished when he’s had strong legislative partners, such as former state Senate leader John Burton and former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez. He doesn’t have that now. Davis was much the same way. When the state’s budget crisis deepened early in this decade, I remember Sharon Davis telling me that they would be a lot better off were Willie Brown the Assembly speaker.
But in the era of term limits, strong legislative leaders are few and far between. The Democrats, as a top consultant reminded me the other day, certainly didn’t go old school to shake loose Republican votes by locking down the house and staging repeated votes. Schwarzenegger should have recruited a cadre of mostly Republican legislators — as he can already deal with the Democrats — that he can count on in the clutch. He certainly can’t count on Republican legislative leaders, who seem deathly afraid of political excommunication from the church of the far right.
But Schwarzenegger hasn’t done that. Davis didn’t do that, either. And given Schwarzenegger’s outsized charm and ability to cajole and raise money, it’s certainly in his power to do so.
But that’s water under the bridge. Now Schwarzenegger has the opportunity, once again, to educate on the budget because, unless the Legislature rethinks its drink in the next few days, he’s certainly going to get another crack at the chronic budget crisis next year.
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political and military reality. … From my Friday column.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. At least until the polls started turning again in Obama’s direction, that is. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my September 10th column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
After plummeting the last few days over the global financial turmoil emanating from Wall Street, the price has gone back up a bit upon news of the massive US governmental bailout of the world’s largest insurance firm, American International Group.
Now that AIG has been taken over by the government, it’s been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replaced by Kraft Foods.
The drop of over $54 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama’s new two-minute TV ad in which he addresses viewers on the financial crisis.
** CNN/TIME POLLS OF BATTLEGROUND STATES. Here are some interesting numbers. Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 48%. Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 45%. North Carolina: McCain 48%, Obama 47%. Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 47%. Wisconsin: Obama 50%, McCain 47%.
It looks to me like Obama is back to where he needs to be in this race.
** NEW MEXICO POLL: OBAMA BY 8.The new Survey USA poll gives Barack Obama a solid lead over John McCain in battleground New Mexico, 52% to 44%. Obama has a big lead amongst moderate voters, and a solid lead amongst independents. Governor Bill Richardson and his organization are working hard for Obama in the Land of Enchantment, which Obama lost by an eyelash to Hillary Clinton in the primaries. (In one of the longest counts in primary history.)
** MOMENTUM SHIFT. Three of the four public daily national tracking polls now show Barack Obama back in the lead over John McCain. Not by much, of course. This includes Gallup Daily (which in my view has too small a sample of Democrats), Hotline, and Research 2000/Daily Kos. The only one which does not, Rasmussen, owned by conservative Republican Scott Rasmussen, shows a tie.
** CARLY FIORINA. Californians in the news … former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is being sidelined by the McCain campaign after her latest controversial statements yesterday. In which she twice noted the obvious: Sarah Palin is not qualified to be CEO of a corporation. Earlier, she had seemed surprised that John McCain is anti-choice on abortion.
Fiorina, ousted by the HP board and given a pass by former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown on the question of her purported involvement in corporate spying on whistle blowers, will remain chair of the Republican Victory fund.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Elko and Las Vegas, Nevada.
Joe Biden is in Maumee and Wooster, Ohio. John McCain is in Detroit and Grand Rapids, Michigan. Sarah Palin is in Grand Rapids, Michigan. After two days of delay, she will appear tonight on Fox News with conservative personality Sean Hannity. This is only her second media interview.
John McCain assails the “greed of Wall Street,” and Barack Obama for being all about “talk and taxes” in this new TV ad. ** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCASTS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING BUDGET RALLY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears at the Governor’s Council on Physical Fitness and Sports awards ceremony this morning in Sacramento at 10:45 AM. The event will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.
Schwarznegger will appear this afternoon at a rally on the state budget in front of Fresno City Hall at 2 PM. Following his speech, he will do a press availability. The event will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov. ** THIS WEEK — THE SCHWARZENEGGER QUESTION: FIVE COLUMNS FOR THE LATIMES.COM. This week I am doing daily columns for LATimes.com’s point/counterpoint feature, opposite Pulitzer Prize-winning former LA Times reporter and editor Bill Boyarsky. The topic? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I kicked things off Monday by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the dramatic 2003 recall?
Yesterday, the topic was Schwarzenegger on taxes. Today, should he have vetoed the state budget?
NO NEW TAXES? NO WAY. (from yesterday’s LA Times column)
Arnold Schwarzenegger clearly cannot keep to a no-new-taxes pledge. The logic of the situation won’t allow it — unless he wants to follow along with the “get-out-of-town” budget cobbled together by Republican and Democratic legislative leaders, which kicks the can farther down the road by taking no-interest loans out of Californians’ pockets.
Incidentally, as I reported this morning on New West Notes, Schwarzenegger has reserved TV time tonight for a statewide address on the chronic budget crisis. I fully expect him to become the first governor in history to veto a California state budget.
Let’s look at the history of Schwarzenegger on the tax issue.
It’s frequently presumed, and certainly pushed along by the far right, that he made a no-new-taxes pledge when he won his first landslide election as governor of California in the 2003 recall election. Although he gave off such atmospherics, he didn’t say he wouldn’t raise taxes. He said he would probably have to raise taxes in the event of a big disaster. How big a disaster? What kind of disaster? …
He wouldn’t have had to go through such contortions if his friend Warren Buffett, not long after being named Schwarzenegger’s economic advisor and musing to a Wall Street Journal writer about the lower tax on his beach house in Laguna Beach than on his principal home in Omaha, hadn’t talked about the need to raise California’s property taxes. That prompted Schwarzenegger, on stage after a campaign “economic summit” at an L.A. airport hotel with Buffett and former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz, to warn Buffett that he would have to do “500 sit-ups” if he said that again.
Proposition 13, of course, is a longtime “third rail” in California politics. Buffett’s musings came at a particularly inopportune moment for Schwarzenegger, running as a Republican yet already suspect on the right for his social and environmental views.
As governor in 2004, Schwarzenegger said publicly at a Sacramento news conference that he might have to raise taxes. But he did not make that move. Running for reelection in 2006, he did make a no-new-taxes pledge. He also criticized his Democratic opponent, then-Treasurer Phil Angelides, as an inveterate tax-raiser for, among other things, calling for mandated employer health care coverage — which in 2007, ironically, was a cornerstone of Schwarzenegger’s own universal health care proposal. You can’t call the guy inflexible.
Now he has embraced a temporary tax increase — in the form of a one-cent sales tax hike (along with some tax loophole closures) — to balance the budget and preserve a semblance of the social safety net.
On economic issues, Schwarzenegger, something of a business tycoon himself, is a pro-business moderate, a pragmatist. More taxes is never the preferred option. He tried his most-preferred path, growing the economy as the way to produce more revenues, as a means of eliminating the structural budget deficit he inherited (and exacerbated with the very popular car tax cut, a lesser but significant reason for the Gray Davis recall). It hasn’t worked. Of course, growing government at the same time is part of the problem.
But Schwarzenegger wants government to do things in a growing state; so do most Californians. Still, perhaps government should not have grown as much as it has.
But remember the stubborn two oppositional factions that dominate the two parties under that lovely Capitol dome. The anti-government faction dominates legislative Republicans, always pushing to be the Party of No, except when it comes to pork and business tax breaks. The ultra-government faction dominates legislative Democrats, always pushing to be the Party of Yes.
Here’s the reality check: Even the conservative Republicans who drove this year’s record budget impasse couldn’t come up, when challenged, with the program cuts they said they wanted to balance the budget — which is why we have this budget monstrosity which, no matter how you slice it, still relies on more borrowing.
The logic of the situation is clear: More revenues, more efficiencies, more reform.
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political and military reality. … From my Friday column.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. At least the polls started turning again in Obama’s direction, that is. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my Wednesday column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $92 to $93 per barrel range. Prices have dropped nearly $10 per barrel since their Friday close on the heightened turmoil in financial markets.
The drop of over $54 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
As expected, Barack Obama pounces on John McCain’s Black Monday comments on the strength of the American economy in this new TV ad.
** FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BAILS OUT, AND WILL POTENTIALLY CONTROL, WORLD’S BIGGEST INSURANCE FIRM. The reeling AIG, American International Group, a global financial giant that is the world’s biggest insurer, needs at least $75 billion to survive. But it has failed to find the money from private sources. So, according to the Wall Street Journal, the US government is stepping in with $85 billion in supposed loans to bail the transnational out. For which it will receive warrants worth as much as 80% of the company’s stock.
Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail, though its failure dwarfs that of Enron and in fact is the biggest corporate collapse in American history. Merrill Lynch found a safe haven, being relatively quietly swallowed up by Bank of America. But AIG was too big to fail. And too big a failure for the private sector to step forward, even in consortium form, which was what was being feverishly negotiated over the past several days. So we all, as good socialists, now control the world’s biggest insurance firm.
** PALIN BOUNCE FADES. Oh, yes, nearly forgot. Barack Obama is now either tied with John McCain or ahead in all the daily national tracking polls.
** AS REPORTED FIRST ON NWN, SCHWARZENEGER MADE THE FIRST-EVER VETO OF A STATE BUDGET IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY THIS AFTERNOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed the budget passed late last night by the Legislature, in the webcast Capitol press conference many of you watched live. I filmed the event for future use, and am currently on a couple of deadlines, so I will keep this brief. Democratic and Republican legislative leaders vow to try to override the governor’s veto. He says, at least, that he expects them to succeed. And that if they do succeed in overriding his budget veto, rather than produce a better budget, he in turn will veto “hundreds” of their bills coming to his desk. This will give ownership of the budget to the Legislature, and not a lot else.
The budget, cobbled together in secret over the weekend and passed around 2 or 3 AM last night, is being widely derided. The Los Angeles Times has a typical editorial, describing it as essentially fraudulent and fiscally irresponsible, taking a particular shot at the Republicans for their conceit on the latter point, and the Democrats for dragging out the process and getting nothing. A reversal of partisan form from what happened last year.
For his part, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, a Democrat, praises Schwarzenegger’s decision to veto the budget. “The Governor is correct to veto the proposed budget as it does not meet the minimum investment that California must make to maintain its economic competitiveness. All levels of education remain on a starvation diet that is sapping the strength of tomorrow’s workforce and leaving California employers with insufficient skilled workers, ill-prepared to compete in the world’s economy. Furthermore the most vulnerable in our society, the poor, the aged, the blind and the disabled are denied the basic needs that they deserve. … This budget “kicks the can down the road” because it does nothing to solve the structural deficit, nothing to fund or to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of our poorly performing education system, the prison system or address the need for affordable health care. It uses accounting gimmicks and borrowing to plug the hole, a hole that is guaranteed to be only bigger and deeper next fiscal year. …
“The Legislature should return to serious daily negotiations and adopt a budget that invests in California’s future. The Republicans have already agreed to a tax hike for every Californian who receives a pay check and for every California Corporation. …”
** SCHWARZENEGGER BUDGET VETO PRESS CONFERENCE IN LIVE WEBCAST AT 3 PM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, according to informed sources, will discuss his first-in-history veto of a California state budget in a Capitol press conference at 3 PM today. The event will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.
It turns out that, while the cobbled-together budget passed in the middle of last night did gain the necessary two-thirds vote under California’s unusual constitutional requirement, several budget trailer bills did not gain the two-thirds vote needed to sustain a veto. As a result, it’s not clear that the votes currently exist to override Schwarzenegger’s veto of the package included in the budget.
With the prospect of the already drawn-out process continuing, tonight’s planned statewide TV address by Schwarzenegger has been put off in favor of this announcement of the budget veto. A statewide address is like a big gun. You don’t want to fire it off one moment when you may need to fire it off the next.
This actually is the first-ever gubernatorial veto of a California state budget. Democratic spokesman Steve Maviglio told me after the morning item that then Governor Jerry Brown vetoed the budget in 1979 and was overridden. That was wrong. Brown vetoed some pay raises that were then overridden.
** OBAMA SPEECH ON THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. Excerpts from his speech today in Golden, Colorado: Over the last few days, we have seen clearly what’s at stake in this election. The news from Wall Street has shaken the American people’s faith in our economy. The situation with Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions is the latest in a wave of crises that have generated tremendous uncertainty about the future of our financial markets. …
Since this turmoil began over a year ago, the housing market has collapsed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be effectively taken over by the government. Three of America’s five largest investment banks failed or have been sold off in distress. Yesterday, Wall Street suffered its worst losses since just after 9/11. We are in the most serious financial crisis in generations. Yet Senator McCain stood up yesterday and said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong
A few hours later, his campaign sent him back out to clean up his remarks, and he tried to explain himself again this morning by saying that what he meant was that American workers are strong. But we know that Senator McCain meant what he said the first time, because he has said it over and over again throughout this campaign – no fewer than 16 times, according to one independent count.
Now I certainly don’t fault Senator McCain for all of the problems we’re facing, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. Because the truth is, what Senator McCain said yesterday fits with the same economic philosophy that he’s had for 26 years. It’s the philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down. It’s the philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise. It’s a philosophy that lets Washington lobbyists shred consumer protections and distort our economy so it works for the special interests instead of working people. …
So let’s be clear: what we’ve seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed. And I am running for President of the United States because the dreams of the American people must not be endangered any more. It’s time to put an end to a broken system in Washington that is breaking the American economy. It’s time for change that makes a real difference in your lives.
If you want to understand the difference between how Senator McCain and I would govern as President, you can start by taking a look at how we’ve responded to this crisis. Because Senator McCain’s approach was the same as the Bush Administration’s: support ideological policies that made the crisis more likely; do nothing as the crisis hits; and then scramble as the whole thing collapses. My approach has been to try to prevent this turmoil.
In February of 2006, I introduced legislation to stop mortgage transactions that promoted fraud, risk or abuse. A year later, before the crisis hit, I warned Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke about the risks of mounting foreclosures and urged them to bring together all the stakeholders to find solutions to the subprime mortgage meltdown. Senator McCain did nothing.
Last September, I stood up at NASDAQ and said it’s time to realize that we are in this together – that there is no dividing line between Wall Street and Main Street – and warned of a growing loss of trust in our capital markets. Months later, Senator McCain told a newspaper that he’d love to give them a solution to the mortgage crisis, “but” – he said – “I don’t know one.”
In January, I outlined a plan to help revive our faltering economy, which formed the basis for a bipartisan stimulus package that passed the Congress. Senator McCain used the crisis as an excuse to push a so-called stimulus plan that offered another huge and permanent corporate tax cut, including $4 billion for the big oil companies, but no immediate help for workers.
This March, in the wake of the Bear Stearns bailout, I called for a new, 21st century regulatory framework to restore accountability, transparency, and trust in our financial markets. Just a few weeks earlier, Senator McCain made it clear where he stands: “I’m always for less regulation,” he said, and referred to himself as “fundamentally a deregulator.” …
Let me be clear: the American economy does not stand still, and neither should the rules that govern it. The evolution of industries often warrants regulatory reform – to foster competition, lower prices, or replace outdated oversight structures. Old institutions cannot adequately oversee new practices. Old rules may not fit the roads where our economy is leading. But instead of sensible reform that rewarded success and freed the creative forces of the market, too often we’ve excused an ethic of greed, corner-cutting and inside dealing that threatens the long-term stability of our economic system.
It happened in the 1980s, when we loosened restrictions on Savings and Loans and appointed regulators who ignored even these weaker rules. Too many S&Ls took advantage of the lax rules set by Washington to gamble that they could make big money in speculative real estate. Confident of their clout in Washington, they made hundreds of billions in bad loans, knowing that if they lost money, the government would bail them out. And they were right. The gambles did not pay off, our economy went into recession, and the taxpayers ended up footing the bill. Sound familiar?
And it has happened again during this decade, in part because of how we deregulated the financial services sector. After we repealed outmoded rules instead of updating them, we were left overseeing 21st century innovation with 20th century regulations. When subprime mortgage lending took a reckless and unsustainable turn, a patchwork of regulators systematically and deliberately eliminated the regulations protecting the American people and failed to raise warning flags that could have protected investors and the pensions American workers count on.
This was not the invisible hand of the market at work. These cycles of bubble and bust were symptoms of the ideology that my opponent is running to continue. John McCain has spent decades in Washington supporting financial institutions instead of their customers. In fact, one of the biggest proponents of deregulation in the financial sector is Phil Gramm – the same man who helped write John McCain’s economic plan; the same man who said that we’re going through a ‘mental recession’; and the same man who called the United States of America a “nation of whiners.” So it’s hard to understand how Senator McCain is going to get us out of this crisis by doing the same things with the same old players. …
Just today, Senator McCain offered up the oldest Washington stunt in the book – you pass the buck to a commission to study the problem. But here’s the thing – this isn’t 9/11. We know how we got into this mess. What we need now is leadership that gets us out. I’ll provide it, John McCain won’t, and that’s the choice for the American people in this election. …
** SCHWARZENEGGER PREPS TELEVISION ADDRESS ON CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS FOR TONIGHT. NWN has learned that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has reserved television time for a statewide address tonight on California’s chronic budget crisis.
Specifically, he will address the state budget recently cobbled together by Republican and Democratic legislative leaders, which passed in the middle of the night.
If I were a betting man, I would head over to Vegas and put my money down on a veto. The first budget veto, I believe, in California history.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Golden, Colorado and Los Angeles, California. Obama has two fundraising events tonight in Beverly Hills which are expected to raise about $9 million, breaking the record for the campaign set last month of $7.8 million in San Francisco.
Joe Biden is in Media, Pennsylvania. He appeared on all the morning shows, rebutting John McCain who was on all the morning shows touting his much more aggressive stance on the financial crisis.
John McCain is in Tampa, Florida and Vienna, Ohio. He appeared on all the morning shows, sporting a newly aggressive stance on the now crisis-ridden financial markets, promising a “9/11-style commission” to investigate and tougher regulation.
Sarah Palin is in Cincinnati and Vienna, Ohio.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks at the Public Safety Officer Medal of Valor award ceremony at the Stanford Mansion in Sacramento at 11:30 AM. Former Governor-turned Attorney General Jerry Brown will also participate in the ceremony.The event will be webcast live at www.gov.ca.gov.
Schwarzenegger will then hold private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol, mostly focused on what is emerging from the fog of secrecy as a pretty lousy state budget conceived by the Democratic and Republican legislative leaders.
I kicked things off yesterday by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the dramatic 2003 recall?
** IS CALIFORNIA BETTER OFF WITH ARNOLD? (From my LA Times column.)
Is California better off with Arnold Schwarzenegger than it was before the dramatic 2003 recall of Gray Davis? Absolutely.
I know both governors well, and like them. The reality is that the pre-recall situation had become so toxic that Davis was unable to govern. His 2002 reelection was won in a highly negative political environment against an unqualified Republican, with a smaller-than-expected turnout of Democrats and independents. Then came the surprise announcement of a massive budget deficit. The former governor, who was in trouble with Capitol factions and lacked Schwarzenegger’s ability to appeal to the public, has acknowledged since his defeat that Schwarzenegger has a number of notable accomplishments that he would likely have been unable to achieve.
First, Schwarzenegger stabilized the state’s finances by winning voter approval of the multi-billion-dollar deficit bonds Davis and the Legislature put together to keep state government running. Schwarzenegger’s Propositions 57 and 58, which voters approved in the 2004 state primary, made the deficit bonds constitutional; otherwise, the state’s finances could have been shattered by a legal challenge. Schwarzenegger then passed a major workers compensation reform package which, while decidedly imperfect for workers, helped many businesses.
After a rightward detour into his 2005 “Year of Reform” special election (his initiatives addressed legitimate concerns but not well, especially from a marketing standpoint in this blue state), Schwarzenegger got to working on some issues he had talked enthusiastically about with me and others in 2002 and ’03 while considering and preparing his run for governor.
He accelerated the state’s renewable energy requirements even beyond the nation-leading level approved by Davis. Then, working with Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nuñez and Don Perata, he pushed the biggest bonds investment package in history to rebuild the state’s crumbling infrastructure and a landmark program to cut greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change that is a model for many states.
The Bush administration has predictably done everything possible to block California’s climate-change actions, so Schwarzenegger and former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown fought it out with the White House in court. In any event, the next president, whether it is Barack Obama or John McCain, has pledged to allow California’s climate change program to proceed.
Schwarzenegger also pushed long and hard last year for a universal healthcare program. Perhaps he pushed too long for it. Despite putting together an impressive coalition, he couldn’t overcome the issue’s intractable politics. He’s also working to achieve the needed next steps on water.
Nevertheless, even with these accomplishments and others, there is one big thing Schwarzenegger has definitely not solved. That’s California’s chronic budget crisis, fed in part by his first act as governor: The extraordinarily popular decision to cut the car tax, which, nevertheless, could and should have been more than offset by a combination of revenues and reforms.
On the budget, Schwarzenegger is confronted by two extraordinarily stubborn opposing political factions and one bizarre legal quirk. The combination of the three factors creates fiscal entropy in the closed system of the Capitol.
The two factions are the ultra-government faction (principally public employee unions and other advocates for expanding government), which dominates legislative Democrats; and the anti-government faction (far right ideologues and the anti-tax lobbies), which dominates legislative Republicans. The bizarre legal quirk is the nearly unique requirement of a two-thirds legislative vote to pass a budget, which California shares with only two other states, both quite small.
Schwarzenegger has made many proposals, but they haven’t taken flight. Meanwhile, he has been whipsawed from year to year by the demands of the ultra-government and anti-government factions.
Will this outsized figure who made the unlikeliest of journeys from small-town Austrian boy to global sports and movie superstar and, now, governor of America’s largest state be undone by this chronic fiscal crisis? I don’t think so.
** FIELD POLL: SCHWARZENEGGER JOB APPROVAL DOWN BUT RECALL IS PANNED. The new Field Poll shows that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval rating has slipped under 40%. At the end of 2007, it was a whopping 60%. Just 38% of California voters approve of the former action superstar’s performance as governor.
Schwarzenegger has taken a big hit from the state’s chronic budget crisis and record impasse this year, along with California’s crumpled economy. 70% now say that California is on the wrong track.
Nevertheless, the bid by the state’s once all-powerful prison guards union to recall Schwarzenegger is a non-starter, as I told you when they announced it. Just 29% say they would vote for it. 63% say they would vote against it; 77% say it would be a bad thing for California.
By contrast, the Gray Davis recall in 2003 — which brought Schwarzenegger to power in California — won plurality support in early polling, with 46% in favor and 43% opposed.
The prison guards union is an easily-pilloried opponent. After holding tremendous sway for many years over California’s chaotic prison system, they have found their demands increasingly denied by Schwarzenegger and have been working without a contract since 2006.
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political and military reality. … From my Friday column.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my Wednesday column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $91 to $92 per barrel range. Prices have dropped $10 per barrel since their Friday close on the heightened turmoil in financial markets.
The drop of over $56 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama’s new ad asking “What happened to John McCain?”
** OIL CLOSES WELL UNDER $100 PER BARREL. Crude oil continued its slide, closing at $95.71 per barrel today, the lowest it’s been since February 15th. This is a whopping $52 a barrel lower than it was just over two months ago. Today’s slide came on the sobering economic news and deepening worries in the global oil market that the slump will further depress the demand for fuel.
** MCCAIN’S POLITICAL GAFFE ON THE ECONOMY. Well, of all days for John McCain to say — as he said at an event I attended this past spring, when the housing and mortgage crisis was well underway — that “The fundamentals of the economy are strong,” this would not be the day. Wall Street giants collapsing, the stock market down more than 500 points, the oil price continuing to slide in anticipation of a continuing global economic slowdown.
After saying that in Jacksonville this morning — and you wonder why the campaign was programming him away from less controlled settings? — McCain tried to explain what he meant. By “fundamentals of the economy,” said the campaign, he meant American workers.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are jumping all over this, of course. Expect it to be featured in all manner of messagings, from events to TV ads.
** L.A. TIMES FEATURE: SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA.Here’s day one of my point-counterpoint columns opposite Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times political reporter and editor Bill Boyarsky on Arnold Schwarzenegger and his governorship.
I’ll run my columns here later.
** POIZNER IN FOR CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR. State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who made a mega-fortune in Silicon Valley with technology that allows the tracking of cell phones, announced his “exploratory committee” for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination. There is no such thing legally, so he has filed his candidacy for governor with the secretary of state’s office.
Top savvy Republican Jim Brulte, former Republican leader in the state Senate and Assembly, once President Bush’s co-point man in California and now a partner in the powerhouse California Strategies firm, is Poizner’s campaign chairman. 23 top Republican state elected officials, including 21 members of the Legislature, are part of the Poizner core group.
** VIRGINIA POLL: OBAMA BY 4. The new Survey USA poll of battleground Virginia, twice won by eight points by President Bush, shows Barack Obama regaining a slight lead over John McCain, 50% to 46%. There is no evidence of the Sarah Palin factor in Virginia, which with its 13 electoral votes is on the key battleground states in the closely-fought presidential race.
** CALIFORNIA’S CHRONIC BUDGET CRISIS. The state’s legislative leaders, having arrived at a deal, referenced below, late yesterday, have scheduled sessions of the both houses of the Legislature for 4 PM today. However, they are still explaining it to their caucus members. And Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has not yet endorsed the deal.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK
Well, well, well. After what may well have been the most intellectually lightweight week of presidential campaigning in history, the two campaigns may finally grapple with some serious issues.
And all it takes is a massive crisis in the country’s financial markets.
Following last week’s brilliant distractions around lipstick, pigs, pitbulls, sex ed for 5-year olds, etc. — which may actually have gone too far in the factually-challenged department for Team McCain — we’re confronted with the next dominos in the country’s financial crisis.
After dramatic maneuverings over the weekend on Wall Street and in Washington, the venerable investment banking house Lehman Brothers is no more. Banks in Britain and the US backed out from buying it and the federal government backed down from bailing it out.
Another ailing giant, the venerable Merrill Lynch — “we’re bullish on America” — allowed itself to bought late Sunday for a bargain price by Bank of America. Insurance and finance giant American International Group is teetering. With the end of Bear Stearns earlier this year, only two of the famed five big independent Wall Street investment banking houses, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, still remain.
Clearly, a massive failure both by Wall Street in policing itself and by Washington regulators in overseeing the financial markets.
After weeks of relentlessly negative campaigning, John McCain tries to pivot on the dramatic Wall Street news to a message of cleaning up the country’s economic mess.
With John McCain on record supporting the Bush/Cheney economic policies — and with famed deregulationist Phil Gramm, the Texas senator-turned-Swiss banker only recently departed as McCain’s campaign chairman and leading economic advisor after his backfiring “nation of whiners” remarks — this should be a big opening for Barack Obama and the Democrats to shift the focus back from McCain campaign honcho Steve Schmidt’s brilliant strategy of distract and detract. Which I explained a few weeks ago in this column.
Meanwhile, after a fairly desultory and unfocused effort for all its lengthiness, California’s Democratic legislative leaders are mostly throwing in the towel on the state’s chronic budget crisis, as a mostly “get-out-of-town budget” appears to be on tap.
If the emerging yet vague budget compromise comes to pass, legislative Republicans will win on avoiding most tax increases but punt the crisis into the future. Legislative Democrats will win in protecting many programs while sustaining unsustainable spending. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will win in gaining a rainy day fund and new mid-year budget-cutting powers. More to follow on this, naturally.
Nevertheless, there was one big bright spot over the weekend. Number one USC crushed Ohio State, 35-3, in a game that was not as close as it sounds. Leading 35-3 at the end of third quarter, with new star quarterback Mark Sanchez having already thrown four touchdown passes, coach Pete Carroll eased off on the offensive throttle. But not on the defensive side, where star middle linebacker Rey Maualuga had already raced 50 yards for a score after an interception. The Trojan defense was so tough that the touted Buckeyes were unable to move the ball out of their end of the field during the entire second half.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Grand Junction and Pueblo, Colorado.
Joe Biden is in St. Clair Shores and Flat Rock, Michigan.
John McCain is Jacksonville, Orland, and Miami, Florida.
Sarah Palin is in Golden, Colorado and Canton, Ohio.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol.
** THIS WEEK — THE SCHWARZENEGGER QUESTION: FIVE COLUMNS FOR THE LATIMES.COM. This week I am doing daily columns for LATimes.com’s point/counterpoint feature, opposite Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter and editor Bill Boyarsky. The topic? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I kick things off by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the dramatic 2003 recall?
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political and military reality. … From my new column.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my Wednesday column.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my Monday Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $96 to $97 per barrel range. Prices have dropped $5 per barrel since their Friday close on the heightened turmoil in financial markets.
The drop of over $51 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Quantum of Solace, the sequel to the smash Bond franchise reboot Casino Royale, starts “an hour after” the end of the 2006 movie. It opens in the UK on October 31 and in the US on November 14.
** A CONSEQUENTIAL SUNDAY. While I spent the day watching football and F1 and working out, a couple of big scrambles were on. In New York, to avert the collapse of two major investment banks and an insurance giant, in California to cobble together some semblance of a budget.
It appears that Lehman Brothers is lost, and now it’s a matter of picking up the remaining shards. Merrill Lynch and American International Group are in dire straits, but less obviously disastrous.
California after a record impasse, is headed to a resolution of a sort, generally called a “get out of town” budget. It will rely, apparently on more budget cuts, some accounting maneuvers, some tax loophole closures, and a partial victory for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in getting a rainy day fund and new authority for mid-year budget reductions. It’s all a bit vague.
Incidentally, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain are addressing what former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan calls the worst financial crisis in decades. Seems like an opportunity for Obama to me.
** OBAMA SMASHES MONTHLY FUNDRAISING RECORD. Barack Obama may be quite slow in catching on to old NWN friend Steve Schmidt’s moves for John McCain, but it’s not hurting his fundraising. Quite the contrary.
In August, Obama set another fundraising record, taking in $66 million and adding 500,000 new contributors. His previous best was $55 million, in the height of the primary fight with Hillary Clinton.
** SUNDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago, off the campaign trail.
Joe Biden is in Charlotte, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Loudon, New Hampshire and Jacksonville, Florida.
Sarah Palin is in Denver, Colorado.
** ACTUALLY, PALIN WAS NEVER IN IRAQ. It was a dramatic story following the shock selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate. While she seemed to have paltry credentials for the office — especially compared to McCain’s first choice, Joe Lieberman, who was vetoed by the Republican right — Palin, according to both herself and the McCain campaign, had made what she called “the trip of a lifetime” venturing into the Iraq “battle zone” to visit troops at “an outpost” somewhere in the embattled country’s interior.
There are some other revelations about Palin that have just come out. Crowd sizes not confirmed by the authorities cited by the McCain campaign. Palin’s husband being subpoenaed to testify in a bipartisan legislative of her possible abuse of power in firing the state’s public safety commissioner who refused to fire her former brother-in-law. I’m sure I’m forgetting something. But hey, it’s a weekend. And this is going to continue.
** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Manchester, New Hampshire. Obama was going to appear on the season premier of Saturday Night Live, but postponed his appearance due to Hurricane Ike.
Joe Biden is in Manchester, New Hampshire.
John McCain is in Washington, DC, off the campaign trail.
Sarah Palin is in Anchorage, Alaska, Carson City, Nevada, and Denver, Colorado.
** COMING NEXT WEEK — THE SCHWARZENEGGER QUESTION: FIVE COLUMNS FOR THE L.A. TIMES. Next week I will do daily columns for LATimes.com’s point/counterpoint feature, opposite Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter and editor Bill Boyarsky. The topic? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I’ll kick things off on Monday by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the recall?
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political and military reality. … From my new column.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my Wednesday column.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions in Los Angeles, largely focused on the chronic California budget crisis. He will also tour the site of a a major disaster in Los Angeles. Late yesterday, a Metrolink train ran head on into a freight train. 17 people were killed and well over 100 were injured.
The budget situation may be headed toward some sort of resolution, as I’ve been mentioning for several days. Late yesterday, the LA Times got hold of an e-mail from state Senate leader Don Perata to his members in which he said he is backing off a demand for some new taxes — favored by over 60% of California voters in the new Field Poll — to seek a compromise with conservative Republicans. California is one of only three states in America requiring a two-thirds vote to pass the state budget.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my Monday Huffington Post column.
#1 USC takes on Ohio State in the first big showdown of the college football season.
** THE COLLISION IN THE COLISEUM. It’s the first big showdown game of the season, the University of Southern California Trojans vs. the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes entered the season ranked #2 in the country, but have dropped to #5 after two wins over small schools, the last of which saw them trailing at the half. USC moved from #3 to #1 after a huge win over a credible big school team. The team that wins this game will have an inside track to the national championship game next January.
** F1 SUNDAY. The Formula One racing circuit continues its globe-spanning season as the action moves to Manza for the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday. It’s a very close battle for the world driving championship between England’s own Lewis Hamiltion of McLaren, the first black driver in F1, and Brazilian Felipe Massa of Ferrari.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed on Friday at $101.18 per barrel. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
The drop of over $46 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Barack Obama’s brand new TV ad mocking John McCain as out of touch and more of the same.
** COMING NEXT WEEK — THE SCHWARZENEGGER QUESTION: FIVE COLUMNS FOR THE L.A. TIMES. Next week I will do daily columns for LATimes.com’s point/counterpoint feature, opposite Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter and editor Bill Boyarsky. The topic? Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I’ll kick things off on Monday by addressing this question. Is California better off now under Schwarzenegger than it was before the recall?
** L.A. WEEKLY RIPS ANTONIO. The LA Weekly rips into Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, examining his frenetic schedule and characterizing his activity as being dominated by travel, PR, and fundraising.
** FANTASY & REALITY: MCCAIN/PALIN ON RUSSIA AFTER THE GEORGIA WAR. There’s a big gap between the political fantasy being expressed and the political reality about what would happen. … From my new column.
** PALINOLOGY: NEW AD AND FIRST LIVE INTERVIEW. WITH SEAN HANNITY. Trying to keep the focus on a “victimized” Sarah Palin and not on John McCain, Team McCain has a new ad out today claiming the Wasilla Mayor-turned-Alaska Governor is being “disrespected.” Meanwhile, Palin, who made notable miscues in her taped interviews with ABC’s Charlie Gibson, will have her first live TV interviews next week. With far right Fox personality Sean Hannity.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Dover and Concord, New Hampshire for discussions with voters about tax relief and economic stimulus.
Joe Biden is in San Antonio and Austin, Texas for fundraisers.
John McCain is in New York City and Washington, D.C. He and Cindy McCain appeared for the full hour on ABC’s The View.
Sarah Palin is in Wasilla, Alaska, off the campaign trail.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my Wednesday column.
** FIELD POLL SHOWS ALL-TIME APPROVAL OF LEGISLATURE, MUCH GREATER SUPPORT FOR SCHWARZENEGGER AND DEMOCRATIC BUDGETS THAN REPUBLICAN PLAN. The new Field Poll of California voters shows that the state’s chronic budget crisis is sinking in. The Legislature has an all-time low collective job approval, just 15%. That’s only half what it was in May. 82% now see the budget impasse as a serious crisis.
The proposals put forth by Governor Schwarzenegger and the Democratic legislators — both of which include cuts and tax hikes — are each supported by roughly a third of the voters. The Republican alternative — which is more borrowing and cuts — is favored by only 19% of California voters.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions around the Capitol today, largely focused on the chronic California budget crisis. He had been planning a tour of a health care center threatenedy by the impasse, but cancelled plans.
The budget situation may be headed toward some sort of resolution. More to follow.
With Scchwarzenegger’s planned “Year of Education” not materializing this year do to the budget stand-off, Education Secretary Chuck Long has resigned. He was Schwarzenegger’s third education secretary.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my Monday Huffington Post column.
Future Vice President Sarah Palin discusses the questions swirling around her … This Gina Gershon spoof points up her emerging problem.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $102 to $103 per barrel range.
The drop of nearly $45 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
** MORE PALIN: DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE BUSH DOCTRINE IS, NEVER MET A FOREIGN HEAD OF GOVERNMENT. From the interview with friendly ABC News anchor Charlie Gibson.
Gibson: Do you agree with the Bush Doctrine?
Palin: In what respect, Charlie?
Gibson: What do you interpret it to be?
Palin: His worldview?
Gibson: No, the Bush Doctrine. Enunciated September 2002, before the Iraq War.
The Bush Doctrine was formed in reaction to, yes, 9/11.
She’s also never met a foreign head of government. Let’s see. I’ve met Gorbachev, Blair, Putin, Schmidt (Helmut, not Steve) …
** SOME 9/11 ANNIVERSARY THOUGHTS. It’s very nice not having the usual campaign yip-yap taking place for an entire day. It’s gotten so bad that, with massive events taking place this week, the chattering class in what we laughingly call national politics is obsessing about lipstick and the various items of bric-a-brac batted about by various hyperpartisans of all persusasions, including our old NWN friend Steve Schmidt. Not that Barack Obama didn’t fall into the latest trival pursuits trap.
But on to more historical events. The ceremony at Ground Zero was curiously underwhelming.
It’s shocking how lame Ground Zero looks. Take away all the banners, placed there as a friend reporting in from the site early this morning noted just for this day, and it’s just a street going down into a hole.
Since he wasn’t walking on level ground, down or up, McCain’s limp was quite noticeable.
Obama looked good next to McCain.
Cindy McCain looked very sharp, austerely chic, and distracted a bit from Mac’s limp and age. She walked with McCain on the way back up, in between the two candidates.
No Michelle, which meant Obama hung with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Not much interaction between O and Mac.
It’s amazing how little has been done there in seven years. It’s an unintended metaphor for the tour d’horizon post-9/11.
GIBSON: And under the NATO treaty, wouldn’t we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia?
PALIN: Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you’re going to be expected to be called upon and help. …
It doesn’t have to lead to war and it doesn’t have to lead, as I said, to a Cold War, but economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, again, counting on our allies to help us do that in this mission of keeping our eye on Russia and Putin and some of his desire to control and to control much more than smaller democratic countries.
His mission, if it is to control energy supplies, also, coming from and through Russia, that’s a dangerous position for our world to be in, if we were to allow that to happen.
** RUSSIA TO COOPERATE WITH O.P.E.C. Moscow sent a deputy prime minister, who is also chairman of the petro giant Rosneft, to the OPEC meeting in Vienna. This is the first time that Russia has participated in an OPEC meeting. The move? A positive answer to previous OPEC entreaties to cooperate on supply and price.
Russia already has close ties to OPEC members Venezuela and Iran, and as I reported months ago, Vladimir Putin did a Middle Eastern tour in which he spent a lot of time in Saudi Arabia.
Russia is also making some military moves in Latin America, sending a naval task force to the Caribbean and just completing a test flight of strategic bombers to Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez says he will himself take the controls in an aerial demonstration of his own.
** BATTLEGROUND POLLS: OBAMA UP IN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA, MCCAIN IN FLORIDA. The new Quinnipiac polls for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida show Barack Obama leading in Ohio, 49-44, and slightly in Pennsylvania, 48-45, and John McCain leading in Florida, 50-43. The poll indicates the Sarah Palin is particularly helping in Florida. Which is interesting, because there is no sign the McCain campaign is putting her in that state. Some analysts her candidacy is problematic with the Jewish community in Florida.
** WITH THE RACE TIED UP, B.C. TO THE RESCUE? As previously reported, Barack Obama had lunch in Manhattan with Bill Clinton, prior to his afternoon appearance with John McCain at Ground Zero. Clinton said he expects Obama to win the election handily, and will be campaigning for Obama over the next eight weeks.
Last night, at a pretty good appearance on Late Night with David Letterman, Obama had this to say about his relationship with Clinton.
Dave: “Now, tell me about the big lunch with Bill Clinton. Is that tomorrow or the next day?”
Obama: “You know, I’ve got lunch with Bill Clinton, which I’m looking forward to. There’s nobody smarter in politics,” (audience applauds) “and he is going to be, you know, he’s going to be campaigning for us over the next eight weeks, which I’m thrilled by because, you know, the race that he ran in ’92 is – it was similar to what’s taking place now. You had an economy that wasn’t working for people, you had a party that had been in power that didn’t seem particularly concerned that it wasn’t working for people, but, you know, he was new. He was young and people were still trying to figure out whether or not the guy was up to the job, and so, you know, I think giving – having him talk about, you know, why we need to change the economy in a fundamental way so it works for middle class families so that they can get ahead, so that they can send their kids to college, I think he can be a great advocate on behalf of the campaign.”
As I mentioned in this column during the Democratic national convention, Bill Clinton is key to Obama’s victory. Obama had been slow to embrace the idea of the need for the former president to play a central role.
Hillary Clinton will be campaigning tomorrow for Obama in Ohio, where the Illinois senator has a slight lead in recent polling.
The Morning Column: 9/11 + 7.
The good news about the seventh anniversary of the Al Qaeda assault on American soil is that a one-day truce is in place between Barack Obama and John McCain. A blessed day free from the increasingly hysterical yip-yap in the media and from partisans of both candidates.
The bad news is that the job of finding the people behind 9/11 is quite undone.
Al Qaeda Prime has not been rolled up. In fact, it has safe havens in our putative ally Pakistan, where the government has gone from ostensibly anti-jihadist to soft anti-jihadist.
Osama bin Laden, of course, escaped from Afghanistan in a comedy of errors overseen by the White House. He has never been located. Al Qaeda will shortly issue a video message commemorating its successful attacks on 9/11.
The Taliban, swiftly ousted from power in Afghanistan following the successful CIA proxy there in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, has successfully regrouped in Pakistan and outlying regions of Afghanistan. The Pentagon says that the war in Afghanistan is not going well.
After years of ignoring the situation in Afghanistan, the Bush/Cheney administration, pinned down in Iraq, is sending more troops there. But there aren’t as many available, due to military overstretch.
After years of fumbling in Iraq after overthrowing Saddam, we are having some success. But it is ultimately dependent on political moves, and the White House is saying that the military surge may not have been as successful as advertised.
Good news is that Al Qaeda in Iraq appears largely defeated, both through military operations and winning over potential Sunni supporters. Bad news is that Al Qaeda in Iraq didn’t exist before the 2003 invasion, and is really more of an affiliate operation that sprung up in reaction to the US invasion. As anticipated by Al Qaeda Prime.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai narrowly escapes assassination by a Taliban hit squad at an independence day celebration earlier this year in the capital city of Kabul.
Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: US JOINT Chiefs chairman Admiral Michael Mullen has warned time is running out to defeat an intensifying insurgency in Afghanistan and says he is “not convinced we’re winning”. Admiral Mullen, the top military adviser to US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, said he has commissioned “a new, more comprehensive military strategy for the region that covers both sides of that border” between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The US says the area is being used as an insurgent safe haven, and President George Bush has reportedly approved secret orders allowing US forces to conduct ground operations in Pakistan without that government’s prior approval.
Admiral Mullen called the recent decision by President Bush to send 4500 troops from Iraq to Afghanistan “a good and important start”, even though it fell short of commanders’ requests for three more brigades, or 10,000 troops.
** DECONSTRUCTING THE BIG MAC ATTACK: 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand what Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my brand-new column.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in New York City. He appears at Ground Zero with John McCain, meets privately with former President Bill Clinton, and does a televised forum with McCain.
Joe Biden is in Parma, Ohio and New York City.
John McCain is in Shanksville, Pennsylvania and New York City. McCain participates in 9/11 commemorations in both cities, the latter with Obama.
Sarah Palin is in Fairbanks, Anchorage, and Wasilla, Alaska.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions around the Capitol today, largely focused on the chronic California budget crisis.
The budget situation may be headed toward some sort of resolution. More to follow.
Schwarzenegger proclaimed today as Patriot Day in California and September as Heroes of Flight 93 Month.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $101 to $102 per barrel range.
The drop of nearly $46 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
John McCain’s new TV ad attempting to further controversy over Barack Obama’s alleged sexism. It concerns, as his daughter acknowledged, a figure of speech McCain frequently uses himself. The key thing to know about this ad is that it’s too long to air in a commercial slot.
** 9/11 CHILL? Will tomorrow’s seventh anniversary of 9/11 chill an increasingly hysterical, on the right and the left, presidential campaign? Barack Obama and John McCain will appear together tomorrow at Ground Zero, the former site of the destroyed World Trade Center, in Manhattan. Obama also meets privately with former President Bill Clinton.
** SCHWARZENEGGER OPENS UP … IN GERMANY. Here’s a link to that Der Spiegel interview that has some folks buzzing. He explains why he wasn’t shattered, as it were, to have to cancel his prime time opening of the Republican national convention on account of California’s chronic budget crisis.
** WOLVES IN ALASKA. Team McCain has another attack ad out this afternoon, based on a report by Wall Street Journal writer John Fund, that Barack Obama and the Democratic Party have 30 opposition researchers roaming Alaska “likes wolves” out to tear down Sarah Palin. I’ll show it to you tomorrow if it’s running in “key states.”
The Obama campaign denied the Fund report again this morning on a conference call featuring former Alaska Governor Tony Knowles and Ketchikan (site of the notorious Bridge To Nowhere) Mayor Bob Weinstein. The two were on to talk up Palin’s problems with her firing of the state’s public safety commissioner after he refused to can her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, and with her claims to have opposed the Bridge To Nowhere when she actually supported it.
I know John Fund. He’s a nice guy. But he’s a movement conservative and has no sourcing.
** NEW POLLS: SWING STATES SPLIT. New polls in battleground states of Michigan, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Virginia for CNN and Time show a split between Barack Obama and John McCain. Obama leads in Michigan, 49-45, and New Hampshire, 51-45. McCain leads in Missouri, 50-45, and Virginia, 50-46. The poll almost certainly does not factor in a huge Obama voter registration drive in Virginia.
** 12 KEY THINGS TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE BIG MAC ATTACK. It’s important to step back from the hourly yip-yap of the campaign to understand what’s really happening. Especially with more than a few Dems coming down with “a case of the drizzles,” to borrow a phrase from Larry McMurtry’s Lonesome Dove. … Better still to understand wehat Team McCain is doing that is allowing it more success than seemed likely in a year like this. … From my brand-new column.
** NOON UPDATE: The John McCain TV ad above, touted on the Drudge Report and other media outlets this morning as a key new commercial, has been pulled from the McCain video channel. As I point out in my new column, at 37 seconds in length, it’s simply too long be an actual commercial. But not too long to be played by news producers.
NOTE: I’m on a very late starting conference call and am prepping a column on the TV ad wars.
John McCain’s new TV ad says that Barack Obama’s only accomplishment on education is teaching sex to 5-year olds.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Norfolk, Virginia, New York City, and Washington, D.C. Obama appears tonight on Late Night With David Letterman.
Joe Biden is in Boston and Holyoke, Massachusetts and Nashua, New Hampshire.
John McCain is in Fairfax, Virginia.
Sarah Palin is in Fairfax, Virginia and Fairbanks, Alaska.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions around the Capitol today, largely focused on the chronic California budget crisis. The state Assembly yesterday voted down the conservative Republican plan for more borrowing and more cuts. Schwarzenegger met privately with both party caucuses in the Assembly to discuss his compromise budget plan which has been endorsed by the conservative California Taxpayers Association. No progress has been reported.
Schwarzenegger’s cause with Republicans may have been hurt by his comments to Der Spiegel over the weekend that he was not unhappy to have missed his prime time kick-off speech to the Republican national convention, noting his estrangement from the right-wing “which is just so out there.”
On the other hand, there are votes to be gotten from the legislative Republicans, and they’re certainly not on the far right, so they probably didn’t think the former action superstar was talking about them.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my new Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $103 to $104 per barrel range.
The drop of nearly $44 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
Barack Obama’s new TV ad deriding the notion that John McCain and Sarah Palin are mavericks, focusing on McCain’s strong record of Bush-backing, his coterie of lobbyists, and Palin’s false claim to have opposed the notorious “Bridge To Nowhere.”
** SEEKING THE GOD PARTICLE, AND THE SYNCHRONICITY OF THE UNIVERSE. One late-breaking matter. Early tomorrow in Switzerland, the world’s biggest physics experiment takes place. A superconducting supercollider called the Large Hadron Collider will attempt to recreate conditions prevalent moments after the Big Bang created the universe. Located at CERN, the legendary European research consortium outside Geneva, the new 27-kilometer tunnel will be used to smash protons together at just under the speed of light.
One of the project’s aims is to search for the Higgs boson, the so-called “God particle,” which is believed to be the key to mass. If it is actually located, it could make possible the manipulation of gravity which exists in all mass.
One of the key scientists involved is University of Manchester Professor Brian Cox, who has received death threats from project opponents who believe that the particle collider could create black holes.
Cox counters, not entirely reassuringly, by saying this: “At every stage of understanding the universe better, the benefits to civilisation have been immeasurable. None of these big leaps were made with us knowing what was going to happen.”
Okay then. I’m reassured. Cox, incidentally, was in the famed 1990s British pop group D:Ream. Which produced the endlessly upbeat anthem of New Labour and Tony Blair. A little song called “Things Can Only Get Better.” Which was rather overplayed, according to some, here on NWN last summer when Blair stepped down after 10 years as the UK’s prime minister.
Let’s hope the song applies to the experiment.
** STATE OF PLAY. The daily yip-yap having been completed, hopefully, where are things? First the California state Capitol, where the state’s chronic budget crisis drags on. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who did not endear himself to the right-wing by telling Der Spiegel over the weekend that he doesn’t regret missing his prime kick-off speaking gig at the Republican national convention because he doesn’t relate to the far right, met with the Republican and Democratic caucuses of the state Assembly today. The Assembly had just voted down the Republican budget, which calls for more borrowing and more cuts. I’m not aware of new progress, as yet.
Now back to the presidential race. With the dust settling from rampant Sarah Palin hype, the race is essentially where it was before the conventions. Obama is tied with McCain, or ahead by a point, which amounts to the same thing. Palin has energized the right-wing base of the Republican Party, and in at least one poll — a suspicious poll in that it has equivalent numbers of Democrats and Republicans — may be moving some white women voters toward McCain. Obama’s campaign is certainly concerned about the possibility; he rolled out a big speech on education today and a new TV ad on the issue. Which prompted an immediate McCain response ad claiming that all Obama has ever done on the issue is promote sex education for kindergarteners. An amusing thought. I’m prepping a new column on McCain’s advertising strategy, which is more effective than Obama’s. I’ll explain why that is.
President Bush announced that 8000 US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq. Fewer than expected. Apparently, the surge hasn’t been as successful as advertised. Or maybe it has, and it’s important not to simply go along with an Obama-like timetable. Obama pounced on the issue, and I see a big clash coming with McCain on this seemingly dormant issue.
** COLORADO POLL: OBAMA BY 3. The new Rasmussen poll of battleground Colorado shows Barack Obama with a slender lead over John McCain, 49% to 46%. That’s up a bit for Obama, who is benefiting from higher Democratic support in the state that hosted the Democratic national convention.
** FLORIDA POLL: DEAD HEAT. The new Rasmussen poll of battleground Florida is tied. It’s Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 48%. President Bush won Florida handily in 2004.
** OHIO POLL: MCCAIN BY 7. The new Rasmussen poll of battleground Ohio has John McCain ahead of Barack Obama, 51% to 44%.
** PENNSYLVANIA POLL: OBAMA BY 2. The new Rasmussen poll of battleground Pennsylvania has Obama leading McCain, 47% to 45%. This is the closest it’s been since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.
** VIRGINIA POLL: MCCAIN BY 2.The new Rasmussen poll of battleground Virginia has John McCain leading Barack Obama, 49% to 47%. Obama has a huge voter registration drive which almost certainly is not being captured by polling.
** PALIN DOUBLE DIPS AS ALASKA GOVERNOR. The Washington Post reveals that Sarah Palin takes a travel per diem payment while staying in her own home. That’s kind of a problem.
Leadership For America’s Future has a slick web site warning of the danger of placing America “in untested hands. “No matter how eloquently spoken, hoping for change won’t change the world. Only the strength of experience can do that.”
Obviously conceptualized before John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin.
Hiltachk is perhaps best known for his work on the recall of Governor Gray Davis, and frequently promotes Republican initiatives. McNally Temple is best known for its work for the state’s prison guards union, the California Correctional Peace Officers Association.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Riverside, Ohio, and Lebanon, Virginia.
Joe Biden is in Columbia and St. Louis, Missouri.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Lebanon, Ohio and Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
** BUSH BACKER ED KOCH ENDORSES … OBAMA. Former New York Mayor Ed Koch, a longtime Democrat who endorsed President Bush in 2004 and campaigned for him around the country, now backs Barack Obama. His reason? What he calls the “extremism” of John McCain’s fundamentalist running mate, Sarah Palin. He says he will gladly campaign for Obama. “Frankly,” says Koch, “it would scare me if she were to succeed John McCain in the presidency.” Koch backed bush over John Kerry because he felt the president would keep America safer. But this year, he is satisfied with Obama.
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way for Barack Obama. … From my new Huffington Post column.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold private meetings and discussions around the Capitol today, largely focused on the chronic California budget crisis. With the state Senate having voted down the Republican budget — and two key Republicans not voting for the conservative plan to borrow and cut — Schwarzenegger holds a private meeting today with the Assembly Republican Caucus to push his compromise, which as reported first on NWN has won the backing of the conservative California Taxpayers Association.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $43 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
A new John McCain TV ad proclaiming him and Sarah Palin to be “the original mavericks.”
** TEAM OBAMA’S ONE MISSING INGREDIENT: KILLER INSTINCT. The strategies of the late legendary coach Bill Walsh, a moderate Republican who backed Gary Hart for president, point the way to Barack Obama’s victory. … From my new Huffington Post column.
The prison guards are very upset with Schwarzenegger, as he is challenging their sway over the state’s disastrous prison system and has refused their attempts to gain further pay and benefit increases in the midst of the state’s chronic budget crisis. The prison guards union stayed neutral when Schwarzenegger — who had spent hours signing autographs at their 2002 convention — was elected in the dramatic 2003 California recall election. When Schwarzenegger ran for re-election in 2006, the prison guards union threatened to mount a big “independent expenditure” campaign against him. The first video ever run on New West Notes was the TV ad they threatened to run against him. But the prison guards backed down and Schwarzenegger won his second landslide election as California’s governor.
NOTE: Sorry for the publishing delay this morning. When I was ready to write early this AM, the server was not.
MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Back to even. That’s where the most credible polls place the presidential race after the two party conventions.
Barack Obama had a slight lead in national polls going into Denver and came out with a big lead. John McCain erased that lead after his confab in St. Paul.
One is tempted to quote Shakespeare with regard to the conventions: “All sound and fury, signifying nothing.” And yet, what did not happen may prove most significant. I didn’t think either convention did a particularly good job of taking down its opposition.
Meanwhile, the generic partisan numbers remain the same. A decided Democratic edge over the Republicans.
What else is happening this week?
Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton will have lunch together in Manhattan on Thursday. As I wrote in my Huffington Post column 11 days ago, Obama needs Clinton in this race which is, frankly, closer than it should be. If Obama and the former president are able to get along, with Clinton’s help, the freshman Illinois senator should lock down the states he needs to win the presidency over a Republican Party ticket that represents a tired conservative ideology.
Skeptical as I was of him at first, which caused me to travel to scout him in several cities early on, Obama is an undeniably great talent. But it was never going to be easy to elect the first black president of the United States.
After absorbing a lot of criticism — following the longest period avoiding the press in modern political history — the Republicans’ tyro vice presidential nominee, Wasilla Mayor-turned-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, will finally take some questions from a member of the press. Palin will do an interview with ABC News anchor Charlie Gibson sometime late this week, up in Alaska. Gibson, you may recall, was moderator of the most controversial of the Democratic presidential debates, in which Gibson spent much of the first hour repeatedly questioning Barack Obama about why he was not wearing an American flag pin. Gibson, naturally, did not wear a flag pin himself.
Palin is about to leave the campaign trail to return to Alaska to send off her son, Track, to Iraq. And to start getting up to speed on the issues.
And here, incidentally, is a rather glowing New York Times profile — yes, you might get better access, after that stupid smear of McCain early in the year — of old NWN friend Steve Schmidt. The former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager and ex-war room chief for Bush/Cheney 2004 is the campaign director who is keeping John McCain very much in the presidential game. He’s taken a campaign headed for a logical defeat and is keeping it fairly even with Barack Obama.
Is he the architect of the New GOP? Or is he just dancing as fast as he can?
Barack Obama is in Flint and Farmington Hills, Michigan.
Joe Biden is in Green Bay, Wisconsin and Des Moines, Iowa.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are in Lee’s Summit, Missouri, Chicago, and Cincinnati, Ohio.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCCAST THIS MORNING WITH OLYMPIC MEDALISTS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with California’s medalists from the Beijing Olympics this morning in the state Capitol Rotunda.
Schwarzenegger will spend the rest of the day in private meetings and discussions in and around the Capitol on the chronic California budget crisis. Late on Friday, the former action superstar got the conservative California Taxpayers Association to endorse his compromise budget plan, which includes a temporary sales tax hike, budget cuts, and long-term budget reforms including a rainy day fund.
** QUE SERA, SARAH.So, after Wednesday night’s spectacle of an intensively-rehearsed Sarah Palin whipping up the Republican convention crowd, what will be for her? Que sera, Sarah.
I think in the end Palin is a sideshow, a base play too problematic and extreme to appeal to independents and moderates, a tyro whose politics actually undercuts the positioning John McCain needs to win the election.
McCain’s acceptance speech last night, heavy with elegiac tones, had none of the pop of Palin’s. What it did have was depth beyond Palin’s glib wisecracks, and a more centrist positioning beyond Palin’s right-wing base-stoking, and McCain’s own Bush-backing record of recent years. What it did not have was the substance to back up the centrist reformism McCain needs to try to upset Obama.
I asked McCain’s old friend Gary Hart, who was McCain’s groomsman at the Vietnam War hero’s wedding to Cindy, what he thought. “McCain,” he said, noting the flat response of the convention crowd even to the watered-down centrism of last night, “is trying to return the neocon party to the traditional conservative party. He won’t succeed.” … From my new Huffington Post column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $41 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium. Though the repercussions may not.
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