September 30th, 2008

Advantage Obama, And More

NOTE: The latest PJ Media tech change ate my homework this morning. Sorry for the delay, and for any problems going on, some of which posters have complained about.

** DAILY NATIONAL TRACKING POLLS. Barack Obama has a six to 10 point lead over John McCain in the daily national tracking polls. I talked at length earlier today with a top Republican strategist who thinks Obama has it.

** PENNSYLVANIA POLL: OBAMA BY 8. The brand-new Rasmussen poll of battleground Pennsylvania has Barack Obama opening up a big lead over John McCain in the Keystone State, 50% to 42%. Obama has doubled his edge over McCain in the last three days. Obama has the edge on the economy, by a whopping 52-39, while McCain has a narrower edge on national security, 51-43. Nearly twice as many voters in Pennsylvania  –  one of McCain’s most targeted states  –  view the economy as the key issue as compared to national security.

** FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 3. The brand-new Public Policy Polling survey of battleground Florida now shows Barack Obama in the lead over John McCain, 49% to 46%. Three weeks, ago, McCain had a 5-point lead.

The top issue? “The economy, stupid.” Another top issue: The swiftly declining standing of Sarah Palin.

** NORTH CAROLINA POLL: OBAMA BY 2. Barack Obama has taken a 2-point lead in longtime red state North Carolina in the brand-new Public Policy Polling survey. It’s Obama 47%, John McCain 45%. Economic concern is rated as the top issue by a record 64% of likely voters.

** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.

Barack Obama is in Reno, Nevada.

Joe Biden is in Wilmington, Delaware, in debate prep.

John McCain is in Des Moines, Iowa.

Sarah Palin is in Sedona, Arizona, at John McCain’s ranch, in debate prep.

** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signs a bill this morning which makes California the first state in the nation to have its restaurant chains with 20 or more locations statewide post calorie information on menus and indoor menu boards for consumers. At a Chili’s, in Elk Grove.

Do I really want to know that, given the near collapse of the nation’s financial markets? They only serve beer at Chili’s, as I recall.

In any event, the event takes place at 11:30 AM. And will be webcast live on www.gov.ca.gov.

** THAT FOREIGN POLICY DEBATE WE’RE NOT HAVING. Let’s face it. This has been a disappointing campaign. Two very interesting candidates. Some of the biggest issues going, both within and without the US, and they have to blow up in our faces to get much attention. Then there’s the ridiculous media coverage. Which brings us to tonight’s foreign policy debate, which is finally back on.

Part of the problem is what it’s called. Because foreign policy is not “foreign,” it’s geopolitics. The underlying essential dynamics of geopolitics deeply affect domestic politics. In the flows of energy and capital and products and people, in our military budget, and in flash-point electoral politics. When there is debate, we end up debating symptoms — illegal immigration from Mexico, a surge in Iraq — rather than systems.From Friday’s Huffington Post column.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** SCHWARZENEGGER’S CALIFORNIA. Here is my series of five columns for the Los Angeles Times in debate with Pulitzer Prize-winning former Times reporter/editor Bill Boyarsky, whose columns are also included.

Among them is what I’m sure is the first piece examining Schwarzenegger’s legacy as governor of California. Since he will actually be governor of California until 2011. No technology known to be disruptive to the space/time continuum was used in its preparation.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading now in the $98 to $99 per barrel range.

The drop of over $49 per barrel since the record high two months ago comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

0 Responses to “Advantage Obama, And More”

  1. Jonas Blane says:

    Bummer. Dump them.

  2. Mister Bradley, while I still mourn the loss of Mister Cool Hand Luke, the PJ Media techies who ate your work have will now have to spend the night in the box.

  3. Jonas Blane says:

    Where is your video?

    These Pajama people are right wing idiots.

  4. Capitol Boy says:

    It’s a right-wing conspiracy. :)

  5. Jack Aubrey says:

    So much for the myth of conservative competence.

  6. Jonas Blane says:

    Dude, where’s the video?

  7. Dana says:

    I though the string of economic disasters based on “the market knows best” dogma (Enron to the bailout blow-up) already took care of that. And how about that “Bush will be vindicated by history” line of b.s. some have tried to sell in the face of a failure of leadership of historic proportions. If nothing this past week has sealed Bush’s fate of being judged WORST PRESIDENT EVER.

    >Jack Aubrey:

    So much for the myth of conservative competence.

  8. Jack Aubrey says:

    I was talking about how they are screwing up Bill’s web site. :)

  9. Jack Aubrey says:

    Yeah! What he said. :)

    Bread and circuses, my friend.

  10. Dana says:

    OK, so I highjacked your comment. But it was a great opening for me to vent regarding this horrible meltdown we are in the midst of. Thanks. Jack!

    P.S. – Bill, sorry for the tech hiccup you are suffering through.

    >Jack Aubrey:

    I was talking about how they are screwing up Bill’s web site.

  11. four waters says:

    this is a sucky time for tech upgrades (which in my — very experienced — opinion, never go smoothly).
    thanks for hanging in there!

  12. marcos leon says:

    Great poll out of North Carolina. North Carolina?!

  13. Dana says:

    BTW, is anyone else watching these finally episodes of Boston Legal? Last week’s was OK but last night was much jucier. Spader, Shatner, Bergen and Larroquette are amazing and give a vibe of really enjoying themselves. It looks like David E. Kelley plans to go out with a bang (they even hint we may even have another guilty pleasure visit to the Supremes).

  14. Brasky says:

    four waters: “Brasky… wth… don’t you sleep?”

    Sleep is for the weak!

    Conan what is best in life?

    “To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. “

  15. marcus waldron says:

    If Obama’s ahead in North Carolina, I don’t see how he can lose.

  16. Len says:

    Obama’s looking real good.

    Where’s the video?

  17. Jonas Blane says:

    Still no video?

  18. Bill Bradley says:

    Nope.

    Still frakked up.

  19. Bill Bradley says:

    Yes.

    Unknown.

    >Len:

    Obama’s looking real good.

    Where’s the video?
    Sep 30, 2008 – 11:12 am

  20. Bill Bradley says:

    It may be difficult …

    >marcus waldron:

    If Obama’s ahead in North Carolina, I don’t see how he can lose.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 11:02 am

  21. Bill Bradley says:

    The line, actually, is “Lunch is for wimps.”

    What movie is that from?

  22. Bill Bradley says:

    Nope, no longer watching.

    >Dana:

    BTW, is anyone else watching these finally episodes of Boston Legal? Last week’s was OK but last night was much jucier. Spader, Shatner, Bergen and Larroquette are amazing and give a vibe of really enjoying themselves. It looks like David E. Kelley plans to go out with a bang (they even hint we may even have another guilty pleasure visit to the Supremes).
    Sep 30, 2008 – 10:50 am

  23. Bill Bradley says:

    Indeed.

    >marcos leon:

    Great poll out of North Carolina. North Carolina?!
    Sep 30, 2008 – 10:49 am Dana

  24. Bill Bradley says:

    Think of dealing with the Mad Hatter.

    >four waters:

    this is a sucky time for tech upgrades (which in my — very experienced — opinion, never go smoothly).
    thanks for hanging in there!
    Sep 30, 2008 – 10:46 am

  25. Bill Bradley says:

    Yep.

    >Dana:

    OK, so I highjacked your comment. But it was a great opening for me to vent regarding this horrible meltdown we are in the midst of. Thanks. Jack!

    P.S. – Bill, sorry for the tech hiccup you are suffering through.

    >Jack Aubrey:

    I was talking about how they are screwing up Bill’s web site.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 10:45 am

  26. Ann says:

    Where’s Schwarzeneger?

  27. Brasky says:

    The line, actually, is “Lunch is for wimps.”

    I believe that is from Wall Street – love that flick.

    Greed is good.

  28. Brasky says:

    “NORTH CAROLINA POLL: OBAMA BY 2.”

    Undecideds are at 5% and Barr is at 3%. Which is interesting.

    Republican brand is having problems in the senate race too. Hagen (D) 46%, Dole (R) 38%, Cole (L) 6%.

    In that question about top problem, the only other issue to reach double digits is the War in Iraq, which only gets 10%. Pretty low given the military ties in NC.

    Lastly, the polling on Palin was interesting. 43% of women said that the pick of Palin made them LESS likely to vote McCain (only 35% said MORE likely). That difference grew when only looking at a key demographic of this race: independent women (46% LESS, 36% more).

  29. carole w says:

    Okay, I have a high five for Obama after reading a story on Google news. Thank you Senator for supporting the “Rescue Plan”. My Rep congressman voted for the bill and my Dem congressman voted against…go figure? As for the dog ate my homework story…I have heard that one a few times in my house. We punish unfinished homework with no allowance.

    The restaurant chain Chilis’ has really good food. They serve a Tex Mex menu loaded with calories (you know that going in) . SO… run or walk a couple of miles before the meal and enjoy the food ecstasy.

  30. Dana says:

    Brasky, I think we should change it to Greed is good for the Greedy. Isn’t Oliver Stone supposed to be working on a Wall Street sequel with Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko 20 years later?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Gecko

  31. Sacramento Solon says:

    Carole,

    Might I be so bold as to inquire as to how you have both a Dem and Dep congressperson? Two different homes in two different districts?

  32. Dana says:

    Could be home and office.

    >Sacramento Solon:

    Carole,

    Might I be so bold as to inquire as to how you have both a Dem and Dep congressperson? Two different homes in two different districts?

  33. Sacramento Solon says:

    Dana,

    Could be…but then only one actually can represent you as we all know that only those living in or from Chicago are allowed to vote more than once at any election. Well, actually those of use living in or from Chicago are allowed three votes…but that’s a long story for a different time and place.

  34. Brasky says:

    “FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 3.”

    Obama is winning every age demo, except +65. He’s also winning the suburbs (which was 50% of the sample).

    Palin’s luster: right after convention, 45% said they would be more likely to vote for McCain because of Palin. That’s dropped to 40%. After convention, 34% said Palin would make them less likely to vote for McCain. That has climbed to an astounding 41%.

    The poll also shows what the NC poll did — more men than women are enthralled with Palin.

    64% picked the economy and jobs as the top issue. Number #2 in this strong military state was the Iraq War, which polled at a monstrous 15%.

  35. carole w says:

    Dana,
    Bingo….home/office is correct. My next question is regarding “Proposition 1″. I live in a rural area. How will this bond benefit me?

  36. Sacramento Solon says:

    Carole,

    Thanks for responding to my question.

  37. Dana says:

    It is now 1A, because the amending bill was signed so late thanks to the budget mess.

    You’ll be able to access high speed rail stations much like you do airports, via dedicated shuttles and cars. A large percentage of the state (even in rural areas) will live in the catchment area of the stations of the eventual grid.

    It means shifting much mid-distance intra-state travel from airplanes to eletrified rail. That would reduce air pollution from adjacent regions that plague thec entral valley. And mean the need for new airports (maybe in remote locations) will ease.

    It is a huge project that will create economic benefits for many areas. Maybe a quarry in your area will supply ballast.

    Here is the website of the proponents: http://www.californiahighspeedtrains.com/

    >carole w:

    Dana,
    Bingo….home/office is correct. My next question is regarding “Proposition 1″. I live in a rural area. How will this bond benefit me?

  38. marcos leon says:

    Prop 1 A sounds good. We’re going to need high-speed rail with the airlines going down.

  39. Capitol Boy says:

    McCain’s stunt backfired and he is going to lose big.

  40. Bill Bradley says:

    Perhaps.

  41. Bill Bradley says:

    So to speak?

    >marcos leon:

    Prop 1 A sounds good. We’re going to need high-speed rail with the airlines going down.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 4:04 pm

  42. Bill Bradley says:

    I’m just getting a sense of who’s going to be campaigning hard for it.

    >Dana:

    It is now 1A, because the amending bill was signed so late thanks to the budget mess.

    You’ll be able to access high speed rail stations much like you do airports, via dedicated shuttles and cars. A large percentage of the state (even in rural areas) will live in the catchment area of the stations of the eventual grid.

    It means shifting much mid-distance intra-state travel from airplanes to eletrified rail. That would reduce air pollution from adjacent regions that plague thec entral valley. And mean the need for new airports (maybe in remote locations) will ease.

  43. Bill Bradley says:

    Ah, the classic question.

    >carole w:

    Dana,
    Bingo….home/office is correct. My next question is regarding “Proposition 1″. I live in a rural area. How will this bond benefit me?
    Sep 30, 2008 – 2:44 pm

  44. Bill Bradley says:

    This election may be flipping as we speak …

    >Brasky:

    “FLORIDA POLL: OBAMA BY 3.”

    Obama is winning every age demo, except +65. He’s also winning the suburbs (which was 50% of the sample).

    Palin’s luster: right after convention, 45% said they would be more likely to vote for McCain because of Palin. That’s dropped to 40%. After convention, 34% said Palin would make them less likely to vote for McCain. That has climbed to an astounding 41%.

    The poll also shows what the NC poll did — more men than women are enthralled with Palin.

    64% picked the economy and jobs as the top issue. Number #2 in this strong military state was the Iraq War, which polled at a monstrous 15%.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 2:40 pm

  45. Bill Bradley says:

    Well, you haven’t been dealing with Pajamas Media … :)

    >carole w:

    Okay, I have a high five for Obama after reading a story on Google news. Thank you Senator for supporting the “Rescue Plan”. My Rep congressman voted for the bill and my Dem congressman voted against…go figure? As for the dog ate my homework story…I have heard that one a few times in my house. We punish unfinished homework with no allowance.

    The restaurant chain Chilis’ has really good food. They serve a Tex Mex menu loaded with calories (you know that going in) . SO… run or walk a couple of miles before the meal and enjoy the food ecstasy.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 12:15 pm

  46. Bill Bradley says:

    Liddy Dole is a drag factor in North Carolina, as it Sarah Palin.

    Contrary to early spin. But not contrary to NWN … :)

    >Brasky:

    “NORTH CAROLINA POLL: OBAMA BY 2.”

    Undecideds are at 5% and Barr is at 3%. Which is interesting.

    Republican brand is having problems in the senate race too. Hagen (D) 46%, Dole (R) 38%, Cole (L) 6%.

    In that question about top problem, the only other issue to reach double digits is the War in Iraq, which only gets 10%. Pretty low given the military ties in NC.

    Lastly, the polling on Palin was interesting. 43% of women said that the pick of Palin made them LESS likely to vote McCain (only 35% said MORE likely). That difference grew when only looking at a key demographic of this race: independent women (46% LESS, 36% more).
    Sep 30, 2008 – 12:09 pm

  47. Bill Bradley says:

    We have a winner!

    >Brasky:

    The line, actually, is “Lunch is for wimps.”

    I believe that is from Wall Street – love that flick.

    Greed is good.
    Sep 30, 2008 – 11:58 am Brasky

  48. Bill Bradley says:

    Well, he was in Elk Grove. It’s a drive from the Capitol …

    >Ann:

    Where’s Schwarzeneger?
    Sep 30, 2008 – 11:32 am

  49. Brasky says:

    “This election may be flipping as we speak …”

    It has that feel.

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