The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is heading to the Middle East, along with several submarines. It seems that Syria wants a Russian naval base. Good call on that Georgian assault on South Ossetia.
** DARK KNIGHT AMERICA. My latest column. All the hyperpartisan spin aside, here is where we are in a deeper cultural sense.
** US REFUSES TO SELL PLANES TO ISRAEL SAYS JERUSALEM POST. The US is reportedly refusing to sell new jet aircraft to Israel, out of fear that they might be used to attack Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the commando hero-turned-Israeli military chief of staff and prime minister, said last week that the US has told Israel not to attack Iran.
Israel has rather old jet assault and fighter aircraft in its inventory.
Remember, folks. Ignore the rhetoric. Pay attention to the reality. Even if the presidential campaigns don’t like that.
** CALIFORNIA BUDGET CRISIS UPDATE. NWN has learned that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is laying down a budget marker. A temporary one cent sales tax increase. A permanent rainy day fund, requiring that three percent of all revenues be paid in every year. And a spending cap, triggered by the typical April explosion in spending, tied to the rate of inflation and population growth, which can be overcome by two-thirds legislative vote.
UPDATE: The Schwarzenegger press conference on the chronic California budget crisis will be closer to 1:30 PM.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS AFTERNOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will hold a Capitol press conference on the chronic California budget crisis today at 1 PM.
Also included in the Russian task force are several submarines.
Syria’s president is in Moscow today. The country is seeking a closer military alliance with Russia. And says it is very interested in having a Russian naval base.
The US gets its long-negotiated future missile shield program in Poland. Russia gets a here-and-now naval presence in the Middle East.
Tit for tat. Or something like that.
** BOLT BREAKS WORLD 200 RECORD. Jamaican phenom Usain Bolt became the first man since American Carl Lewis did at the LA Olympics in 1984 to win the 100 and 200 sprint double at the Olympics. Bolt broke Michael Johnson’s seemingly unbeatable record of 19.32 seconds in the 200 meter dash when he recorded a 19.30 second performance earlier today in Beijing. No one else had ever run under 19.6. Bolt won by more than half a second over American’s Shawn Crawford and Walter Dix. Over the weekend, Bolt broke his own record in the 100 meter dash when he became the first man under 9.7 seconds. His 9.69 time came despite the fact that he celebrated over the 15 meters of the race. This time he ran through the tape. I’ll bet Michael Johnson, who expected his 1996 record to last well into the 21st century and predicted a 19.5 200 from Bolt, is so very happy he did that …
Bolt is the first to ever break both world sprint records in the same Olympics. Neither Carl Lewis nor Jesse Owens was able to do that.
** SCHWARZENEGGER TO DELIVER FIRST PRIME TIME ADDRESS AT REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION. Informed sources, ah, inform NWN that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will deliver the first prime time address on the opening night of the Republican national convention in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Schwarzenegger, whose backing was key in John McCain’s California primary victory which knocked leading rival Mitt Romney out of the Republican presidential race, will deliver the first major address of the convention on September 1st. Which is also Labor Day. So the California Legislature, now eminently tardy with the state’s budget, will not be in session in any event.
Schwarzenegger is not the convention keynoter, a rumor put in play last week. That honor goes to McCain’s swiftly vanquished rival, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
** LIEBERMAN TO ADDRESS REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut senator who was the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee and mounted a spectacularly unsuccessful bid for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, will address the Republican national convention next month in St. Paul, Minnesota.Lieberman is a potential John McCain running mate
In fact, McCain has dispatched Lieberman and his other Senate running mate, South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, on a mission to reassure the leaders of Georgia, Ukraine, and Poland that a McCain administration would protect them against Russia.
Of course, these sorts of assurances may have led McCain’s friend Mikheil Saakashvili, his represented by a lobbyist who is McCain’s chief foreign policy advisor, to launch Georgia’s disastrously backfiring offensive against South Ossetia.
** VEEPSTAKES TODAY AND TOMORROW AND … I’m going to succumb to joining in the veepstakes watch. Who will Barack Obama pick as his vice president? Who will John McCain pick as his vice president? None of us know for sure, naturally, but that doesn’t stop anyone from speculation and, in some media attempts, wild and increasingly inane attempts to ferret out the pick.
So I’ll have some dispatches throughout the day.
A few key points.
A running mate should provide a complement to his or her presidential nominee. Something the nominee doesn’t have.
Or, as in the case of Clinton and Gore, a running mate should accentuate the presidential nominee’s strengths. Of course, Gore actually complemented Clinton — as a veteran, albeit young, Washington figure, and a military veteran as well.
What does Obama need? A new state or two. And, perhaps more important, demonstrated expertise or achievement in geopolitics and national security.
What does McCain need? Youth. The ability to hold on to the Bush states. The ability to appeal to the center while holding on to the base.
** SCHWARZENEGGER SCORES TALK SHOW HOSTS FOR “NONSENSE REPUBLICAN RIGHT-WING TALK.” Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger phoned in to the Jon and Ken Show on conservative KFI talk radio in LA yesterday afternoon. Apparently, Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines had been on earlier complaining that most people say the state needs to raise taxes to get out of its chronic fiscal predicament. (See item below for what I’m told was Villines’ role in pushing for an all-borrowing solution to the budget crisis.)
Jon and Ken — I always forget their last names but think they’ve got a cute name for a show — are hardcore conservatives who stir up the right-wing base as a profession. They backed Schwarzenegger in the recall, but haven’t much liked his moderation in office.
After sparring about the budget situation, Jon, or maybe Ken, claimed that Schwarzenegger had gotten off course by pursuing environmental policies, and that such policies are part of the problem.
“This is absolutely absurd what you’re saying right now,” Schwarzenegger said. “You’re living in the Stone Age if you think that the environmental issue has anything to do with the budget or the declining economy worldwide.”
“Don’t lie to the people,” the former action superstar told them. “That’s all I can tell you, don’t lie to the people. Don’t pull wool over their eyes. It’s nonsense Republican right-wing talk.”
Which prompted Ken, or perhaps Jon, to ask Schwarzenegger if he was still under anesthesia. Schwarzenegger underwent arthroscopic knee surgery over the weekend.
That went well.
** AN ALL-BORROWING BUDGET? Hot tip of late yesterday about the California budget crisis. That Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines and former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez had come up with a budget that relies on more borrowing. As a way to avoid the tax hike that most believe is necessary.
I think that’s a non-starter.
Barack Obama criticized John McCain’s campaign yesterday at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Orlando, Florida.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Martinsville and Lynchburg, Virginia. He has town hall meetings in both.
John McCain is in Las Cruces, New Mexico for a town hall meeting.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private meetings in and around the Capitol on the chronic state budget crisis. He has no scheduled public events.
** TV AD WARS: NEW OLYMPICS UPLIFT FROM OBAMA AND MCCAIN, ATTACKS EVERYWHERE ELSE. At last, the universe is as it should be. Two new ads for the Olympics from the two campaigns. And this time, they’re both positive! Sort of.
Meanwhile, outside the high-profile Olympics telecasts, the campaigns are down with negative ads, with many of Obama’s in the weeds, showing up unheralded in various battleground states. … From my other blog.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. …
So what does it all mean? It means that most of what you’re hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let’s see if it can avoid turning it into a loss. … From my other blog on the Huffington Post.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
** TEAM MCCAIN PLANS COUNTER-RALLIES IN DENVER. John McCain’s campaign is going to put on some counter-rallies during the Democratic national convention next week. Among the speakers? Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, both apparent veep shortlisters.
** NEWSOM HIRES GARRY SOUTH. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has just announced his hiring of Garry South as senior advisor to his exploratory committee for the 2010 California Democratic gubernatorial nomination. South was the chief strategist for both of Gray Davis’s elections as governor, as well as Steve Westly’s near-miss campaign for the 2006 nomination.
As someone who knows them both, I can tell you that South and the 2010 frontrunner, former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, never hit it off. The dynamic is intriguing. Brown, who is not a fan of the consultant class, had a complex relationship with his former chief of staff, former Governor Gray Davis, who shied away from energy issues early on — to his ultimate detriment — because he saw how controversial they were for Brown. Davis, who has lately become a supporter of Brown’s, not infrequently would preface comments to his top staff during his gubernatorial days when he thought they were screwing up with this: “I worked with the master, Jerry Brown.”
Newsom has also hired pollsters for Barack Obama. Newsom has a problem in that he was a national co-chairman of the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Meanwhile, Steve Westly, the only Democrat who can instantly fund a candidacy, is deeply involved in the Obama for President campaign.
There’s a little more to say about all this.
** DIFI OUT OF DENVER. California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, will not attend the Democratic national convention next week in Denver. Feinstein broke her ankle over the the weekend while on a forest hike at Lake Tahoe. Feinstein, talked about by some as a 2010 gubernatorial candidate — it won’t happen — was at Tahoe for a summit on the big blue lake’s future.
Feinstein is the chair of the California delegation. But not the working chair, who is California Democratic Party chairman Art Torres. She was not on hand for the California delegation meeting a few months ago, which I reported on at length.
I’m told this is not necessarily the time when Obama will announce his running mate. That may come sooner. But it is almost certainly the first big showcase event for the new Democratic ticket.
He’s smart, funny, very good debater and public speaker, down to earth, Catholic from a modest background, has youthful energy despite his 35 years in the U.S. Senate. An expert on geopolitics who has been right about Afghanistan for years, chairman of Senate Foreign Relations, able to get up in John McCain’s grill on his favorite issues.
A whopping 59% of American voters do not want US troops sent to Georgia as peacekeepers. Only 22% favor that move.
Further … Despite the numerous Cold War references that have been made publicly in the past few days, Americans still overwhelmingly do not regard Russia as an enemy. Fifteen percent (15%) say Russia is an enemy of the United States; 5% say it is an ally, and 76% rate the relationship as somewhere in between.
A plurality of voters (48%) continue to believe that Republican presidential candidate John McCain is better able to deal with Russia, but 40% think Democrat Barack Obama is the more capable. Last week, 51% rated McCain as the best equipped to handle the crisis in Georgia, compared to 36% who believed that of Obama.
My Huffington Post column of last week on the war lays out the situation. It’s linked to below in an item on the subject from earlier today.
** NEW WOODWARD BOOK GUARANTEES IRAQ DEBATE RIGHT AFTER REPUBLICAN CONVENTION. Bob Woodward’s new book, The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008, is coming out right after the Republican national convention, on September 8th. That all but guarantees that Iraq will again be a major topic of debate. But is that a good thing or a bad thing for McCain and the Republicans?
Woodward’s inside access books — and this one has had plenty — tend to favor the party in power. But the last one, State of Denial, certainly didn’t.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Orlando, Florida and Raleigh, North Carolina. Obama addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Orlando, which McCain addressed yesterday, and has a town hall meeting in North Carolina, which he is turning into a battleground state. He also addresses two labor unions via satellite.
John McCain is in New Orleans and El Paso, Texas. McCain tours an oil rig in Louisiana and has a fundraiser in Texas.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger holds private meetings in and around the Capitol on the chronic state budget crisis. He has no scheduled public events. Schwarzenegger met with the Big 4 legislative leaders late yesterday afternoon.
He is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery over the weekend to repair the meniscus, a shock absorber in the knee injured during a workout. No crutches, cane, or wheelchair are necessary.
** TV AD WARS: NEW OLYMPICS UPLIFT FROM OBAMA AND MCCAIN, ATTACKS EVERYWHERE ELSE. At last, the universe is as it should be. Two new ads for the Olympics from the two campaigns. And this time, they’re both positive! Sort of.
Meanwhile, outside the high-profile Olympics telecasts, the campaigns are down with negative ads, with many of Obama’s in the weeds, showing up unheralded in various battleground states. … From my other blog.
The Russian media isn’t very happy with John McCain’s anti-Russian rhetoric.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. …
So what does it all mean? It means that most of what you’re hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let’s see if it can avoid turning it into a loss. … From my other blog on the Huffington Post.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $112 per barrel. The price has dipped again after extreme weather in the Gulf of Mexico missed the rigs there.
The drop of over $35 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
In this latest ad, John McCain responds to Democratic charges that his support for a corporate takeover helped cost Ohio thousands of jobs by continuing the Obama-as-celebrity theme and simply denying it, then attacking Obama for purportedly wanting to raise most Americans’ taxes.
** SORRY FOR NEW TECH PROBLEMS WITH NEW WEST NOTES. The PJ Media server seems to have gone down for about one hour this afternoon, taking NWN offline.
** OHIO POLL: DEAD HEAT.The new Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio shows that Barack Obama’s slender lead in this key battleground state has evaporated. It’s now Obama 45%, John McCain 45%. The difference? Too many Democratic defections. Obama leads McCain amongst independents by 17 points.
McCain, incidentally, has been outspending Obama in TV advertising in Ohio. That will probably end soon, as Obama continues to raise money and McCain shoots his remaining fundraising wad and goes on public financing.
** MCCAIN OUTSPENDING OBAMA IN BATTLEGROUND STATES WHERE BOTH ARE UP WITH TV ADS.According to a media tracking service per Talking Points Memo, John McCain is actually outspending Barack Obama on TV advertising in the 11 battleground states where both are on air. That is especially so in Pennsylvania — which McCain is desperately trying to crack, unsuccessfully so far — and Ohio.
As NWN readers have long known, Obama is up in 18 battleground states, not 11. But Obams is not building big leads in the seven states where McCain is not advertising, which includes traditional red state Florida.
A big caveat. McCain is at his financial peak now in a relative sense with Obama. That’s because Obama raises far more money, and McCain is taking public financing after the Republican national convention in early September. Because it is more than he can raise. So McCain is emptying his coffers while Obama is being both competitive and filling his coffers.
** FROM SCHWARZENEGGER’S SPEECH TODAY IN DENVER. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger participated by satellite today in an event launching EcoDrive USA, a new group comprised of himself, Colorado Governor Bill Ritter, some environmentalists, and the auto industry’s trade group. The purpose? Educate consumers about how to take simple steps to cut their gasoline bills and greenhouse gas emissions. Schwarzenegger does not, as readers know, regard these voluntary steps as anything like the entire solution, but merely an intermediate series of steps that will do more in the present reality than certain long-range things presented as political panaceas.
I am sorry I could not join you in person but California’s budget is more than a month overdue and I am working to break the deadlock in our Legislature.
Nevertheless, I am thrilled to join Gov. Ritter to launch Eco-Driving in our states.
We hear a lot of ideas from politicians about lowering gas prices and fighting global warming, whether it is bio-fuels, offshore drilling, or nuclear power.
And I am glad they are talking about it, because we face unprecedented challenges from climate change and high energy prices.
But anyone who tells you that this will bring down gas prices anytime soon is blowing smoke.
Since taking office, I have been talking about America’s need for innovation and new fuel choices as part of a comprehensive energy policy that will help consumers long-term.
But when it comes to helping families balance their checkbooks right now, the politicians in Washington aren’t going to save us. They are too busy squabbling and taking sides against each other to listen to those who need help. …
With the help of our new Eco-Driving campaign, consumers don’t have to wait for the politicians or worry about living in a Red State or a Blue State. Instead, they can live and drive in their own Green State.
In fact, just by following the recommendations on this fantastic new website, you can get 15 percent better mileage for your car.
I am talking about simple things, like proper tire pressure, avoiding rapid starts and stops, and keeping your engine tuned up. This is no substitute for a consistent, long-term, national energy policy, but it provides immediate, tangible relief from high gas prices.
The Eco-Driving website also allows you to enter your information so you can see the amount of money and emissions you can save.
If all Americans practiced Eco-Driving, the reductions in C-O-2 emissions would be equivalent to heating and powering nearly 8 cities the size of Los Angeles or taking 40 million vehicles off the road.
And that’s without waiting for one politician. …
You take the action. You have the power to make America greener, and make your gas bill smaller.
** SCHWARZENEGGER BACKS TIRE PRESSURE MOVE AS WAY TO LOWER GAS PRICES NOW IN NEW VIDEO. LIVE WEBCAST OF HIS SATELLITE REMARKS IN DENVER AT 11 AM. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, in a video for the web site of the new group EcoDriving USA — discussed in the Arnold File item below — says that things such as offshore oil driving will have no impact on gasoline prices now. But things like keeping one’s tire pressure up will have a big impact the pain at the pump. In short, he is supporting the Barack Obama position in a dust-up last month with John McCain.
** MUSHARRAF RESIGNS AS EXPECTED. As discussed last week, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has resigned in advance of his probably impeachment. The Taliban welcomes his resignation, and promises no more trouble in Pakistan so long as the new government promises not to go after Taliban and Al Qaeda Prime safe havens. Such a deal.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
This is potentially a very big week in the presidential campaign. Barack Obama, campaigning in battleground states New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, might announce his vice presidential running mate. Or he might wait, as the Olympics are in full swing. In any event, it will be soon enough. The Democratic national convention is next week in Denver.
John McCain will continue to swing away on national security issues and paint Obama as an empty-headed celebrity who wants to raise most Americans’ taxes. McCain is dispatching Senate sidekicks Joe Lieberman (the apostate 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee and neoconservative favorite) and Lindsey Graham to Georgia. (Obama ally Joe Biden, his potential running mate, is already there.)
McCain will try this week as he did last week to stir up national security concerns around the resurgence of Russia. Moscow, however, has finally decided to pull its troops back from the center of Georgia, per the ceasefire deal which was mostly worked out in, as it happens, Moscow. It took Secretary of State Condi Rice five hours to get Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a McCain friend, to agree to the deal.
Obama could do a better job of explaining this situation, but is demonstrating an abundance of caution.
Obama just returned from an eight-day vacation in his native Hawaii for a little-watched but much chattered about event for evangelical voters at Orange County’s Saddleback Church which McCain also participated in. I didn’t watch it, as it was on a Saturday night — in the middle of the Olympics! — but apparently both did well. Some think McCain did bettter.
Both answered the same questions, and McCain went second. There’s a bit of a controversy, stirred up naturally by the Obama side, over whether or not he knew the questions. Team McCain insists he wasn’t listening to Obama’s session. But if I were running the McCain campaign, I can think of an easy way(s) to get the questions. Nevertheless, this is a tempest in a teapot, like most of what is happening in these campaigns.
Obama has only the slightest of leads now in national polling, showing the success of the new McCain strategy to date. Though Obama is generally doing better in state-by-state polls where, nonetheless, he’s had some slippage.
Obama clearly needed some rest. He was exhausted by the long campaign against the Clintons. Now he’s had his vacation.
Incidentally, Obama raised nearly $8 million last night in San Francisco, a record haul to my knowledge for a California fundraising event. I’ll have more on that later.
Meanwhile, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, as noted in the item below, after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery for a workout injury, is back at work on the long intractable state budget crisis. The state’s anti-government and ultra-government factions, which predominate in the two legislative parties, have not come to their logical compromise yet.
And potential 2010 California gubernatorial candidates are maneuvering and working away. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown had a well-received Wall Street Journal op-ed on his energy and climate change policies and keeps suing and prosecuting various unpopular players. Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is working to gain attention for his efforts. Former state Controller and Obama national finance co-chair Steve Westly played a big role in Obama’s record San Francisco fundraiser. SanFrancisco Mayor Gavin Newsom saw his city’s Democratic Party taken over by a faction that hates him. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, McCain’s national co-chair, was cited by McCain as one of the three most influential people in his life. And so on … I’ll have more on that later, as well.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in New Mexico and Florida. He holds an economic roundtable with voters and a town hall meeting in Albuquerque, then goes to Orlando.
John McCain is in Orlando, Florida to address the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention.
** TV AD WARS: NEW OLYMPICS UPLIFT FROM OBAMA AND MCCAIN, ATTACKS EVERYWHERE ELSE. At last, the universe is as it should be. Two new ads for the Olympics from the two campaigns. And this time, they’re both positive! Sort of.
Meanwhile, outside the high-profile Olympics telecasts, the campaigns are down with negative ads, with many of Obama’s in the weeds, showing up unheralded in various battleground states. … From my other blog.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had arthroscopic knee surgery Saturday night to repair a damaged meniscus (shock absorber) within his knee. He dinged it working out in the last few weeks. Schwarzenegger won’t need a wheelchair or cane during his recovery period.
He will require something else to to get a state budget right away. The state Assembly met on Sunday to hold a vote on the Democratic version of the budget. Predictably, the Dems couldn’t get Republican votes for their version. Republicans don’t think the budget reforms are strong enough and don’t like the tax hike.
This morning via satellite, Schwarzenegger will join Colorado Governor Bill Ritter and the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers at a Denver press conference to launch the EcoDriving Program. This is a national consumer awareness campaign to save money at the pump and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Russian troops are withdrawing from the central part of Georgia, per the ceasefire deal for which it took Secretary of State Condi Rice five hours to gain the Georgian president’s assent. They will not be withdrawing from the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. …
So what does it all mean? It means that most of what you’re hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let’s see if it can avoid turning it into a loss. … From my other blog on the Huffington Post.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $115 per barrel. That’s up a bit from Friday’s $113.77 close, due to extreme weather concerns in the Gulf of Mexico.
The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
American swimmer Michael Phelps won his record eighth Olympic gold medal for one Olympiad in Beijing, breaking the record of seven gold medals set by Mark Spitz at the Munich Olympics in 1972.
** THE DARK KNIGHT HITS #2 ON THE ALL-TIME DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE LIST. In just its fifth weekend of release, The Dark Knight has moved up to number two on the all-time domestic box office list. Since opening just under a month ago on July 18th, the sequel to 2005′s franchise reboot Batman Begins has taken in $471.5 million at the domestic box office. Only Titanic, with its titanic $600 million at the domestic box office, lies ahead of it, probably out of reach.
In recent weeks, darkly epic comic book picture starring the late Heath Ledger as a nihilistic terrorist calling himself The Joker, Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman, and an all-star cast of actors filled with Oscar winners and indie film faves, quickly roared past such recent blockbusters as The Lord of the Rings movies, the Star Wars prequels, and the Spiderman and Pirates of the Caribbean franchises, finally passing the much re-issued original Star Wars this weekend.
I’ll have a column shortly on why this movie is striking such a chord, and why ideological readings from the right (Batman is George W. Bush or Dick Cheney) and the left are mistaken.
** SUNDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Reno, Nevada and San Francisco. He has a town hall and a meeting with billionaire oil man-turned-renewable energy advocate T. Boone Pickens in Reno. Obama has a fundraiser in San Francisco.
John McCain in Florida. He has no public events, but does have fundraisers in Miami and Orlando.
Saturday night — during the Olympics — there is no chance I’m watching politics. That leaves the most extreme political junkies and the most committed evangelicals.
Both candidates had “gaffes.” Obama said the question of when life begins is “above my pay grade.” McCain said that is rich is “$5 million a year.”
McCain has a big lead amongst evangelicals. Obama’s aim is merely to cut into that.
Hillary Clintoncampaigns for Obama today in battleground state New Mexico. She has several public events, along with private fundraisers hosted by New Mexico Governor (and former Clinton Cabinet member) Bill Richardson, who raised hackles with the former first couple when he endorsed and campaigned for Obama following his fourth place finish in the Democratic presidential race.
Joe Biden, a leading prospect to be Obama’s running mate, is in Tbilisi, Georgia. The Senate Foreign Relations chairman is meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, the US ambassador to Georgia, US military advisors, and others to assess the situation.
Usain Bolt became the first person under 9.7 seconds in the 100-meter dash as the Jamaican just blew away a strong field at the Beijing Olympics. A relative novice in the event, the 21-year old broke his own world record, set here on May 31st in New York.
** OBAMA RAISED $51 MILLION IN JULY, NEARLY TWICE MCCAIN’S TAKE. Barack Obama raised $51 million in July. He had $66 million cash on hand at the end of the month. Obama raised roughly the same in June, with $52 million.
John McCain had his best fundraising month ever in July, with $27 million. He had $21 million cash on hand at the end of the month.
McCain is taking public financing, a total of $84 million, so he must spend down all the money he is raising by the time of the Republican national convention in early September. This is why McCain is presently out-spending Obama in TV advertising.
That won’t continue much longer.
** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago and Orange County, California.
John McCain is in Orange County, California.
Both candidates are appearing at the Saddleback Church of Rev. Rick Warren, a new generation of evangelical who is concerned with AIDS and climate change as well as the traditional issues. The event begins at 5 PM and will be roadblocked on all cable news nets. This is their first appearance together since winning their parties’ presidential nominations. It is not a debate.
** NOTE ON OLYMPICS VIDEO. In addition to its silly policy of time-shifting “coverage” of events that have occurred 12 and more hours earlier, NBC is not allowing video of recent Olympics events. This includes the spectacular men’s 100-meter dash final, which was just concluded. And yesterday’s incredible performance by Michael Phelps, in which he won his record-tying seventh gold medal of an Olympiad by coming from behind to win the 100-meter butterfly by one one-hundredth of a second.
With regard to the 100-meter dash, America’s great hope Tyson Gay, last year’s world champion and the national record-holder, did not make the finals. He suffered a hamstring injury in the Olympic Trials and has not regained his form. But it did not look like he would be able to beat the new Jamaican phenom Usain Bolt, a young 200-meter dash specialist who burst onto the scene this year in the 100 and set a world record of 9.72 over Memorial Day weekend in New York, where he defeated Gay, as you’ll see in the world record video above. Bolt ran 9.69 just now in Beijing, winning with the easiest margin of victory in an Olympic 100 final in over 40 years (American Bob Hayes pulled off something much like it in Tokyo), and he was easing off and celebrating at the finish.
** TV AD WARS: NEW OLYMPICS UPLIFT FROM OBAMA AND MCCAIN, ATTACKS EVERYWHERE ELSE. At last, the universe is as it should be. Two new ads for the Olympics from the two campaigns. And this time, they’re both positive! Sort of.
Meanwhile, outside the high-profile Olympics telecasts, the campaigns are down with negative ads, with many of Obama’s in the weeds, showing up unheralded in various battleground states. … From my other blog.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. …
So what does it all mean? It means that most of what you’re hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let’s see if it can avoid turning it into a loss. … From my other blog on the Huffington Post.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed at $113.77 per barrel. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
The drop of over $34 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
John McCain’s new attack ad against Barack Obama. It’s called “Taxman.”
** RUSSIA-GEORGIA CRISIS. It’s not a war anymore. Russia won. US Secretary of State Condi Rice had to meet for five hours today to get Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to reluctantly sign the peace accord negotiated in Moscow by Frence President Nicolas Sarkozy, on behalf of the European Union. The accord does not protect Georgia’s territorial integrity, leaves Russian forces in the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and gives Russian forces the ability to patrol large buffer zones.
Are we all Georgians now, as John McCain declared Wednesday and Thursday? No.
President Bush, incidentally, had vowed to use the Navy to bring aid to Georgia. But in order to get into the Black Sea, ships have to pass through Turkish waters. And Turkey has denied access to the USN. As it denied the US access to Iraq during the 2003 invasion.
Meanwhile, some US humanitarian aid is getting into Georgia by air, with the Russian air force declining to interfere. Russian ships have left the Georgian coast and returned to their Ukrainian bases, which the Ukrainian president, a pro-US figure, might not be allowed. All as expected.
Somewhat more alarmingly, with Poland accepting as expected a deal with the US to erect an anti-missile shield – so long as the US sends a ground security force – a top Russian general did some sabre rattling, threatening a potential nuclear strike against Poland should the the anti-missile base be established.
** SIX MEXICAN STATES JOIN CALIFORNIA IN CLIMATE CHANGE ACCORD. As his Border Governors Conference closed today in LA, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a memorandum of understanding with the governors of the six Mexican border states to combat climate change. The states will work with Pacific Gas & Election and the California Climate Action Registry.
“Mexico is an important environmental partner along our borders, and I applaud their efforts,” Schwarzenegger said. “This first-of-its-kind public/private partnership highlights Mexico’s proven commitment to reduce global warming pollutants while providing an avenue for green industries to begin investing and creating jobs in the region.”
The Mexican states participating in the accord are Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. The states will also focus on clean air, water, and toxic chemical projects.
** OBAMA HEADS WEST, AGAIN. After returning to Chicago tonight from vacation in his native Hawaii, Barack Obama heads back west, again. Late tomorrow afternoon, he appears at Orange County’s Saddleback Church, with John McCain. Though they will not debate. On Sunday, he campaigns battleground state Nevada. On Monday, he campaigns in battleground state New Mexico.
** TV AD WARS: NEW OLYMPICS UPLIFT FROM OBAMA AND MCCAIN, ATTACKS EVERYWHERE ELSE. At last, the universe is as it should be. Two new ads for the Olympics from the two campaigns. And this time, they’re both positive! Sort of.
Meanwhile, outside the high-profile Olympics telecasts, the campaigns are down with negative ads, with many of Obama’s in the weeds, showing up unheralded in various battleground states. …From my other blog.
** MCCAIN RAISES $27 MILLION IN JULY.John McCain had his biggest fundraising month in July, with $27 million. Barack Obama has not released his numbers for last month, but he generally outraises McCain by a lot. In June, McCain had his previous best month with $21 million, while Obama raised $52 million.
McCain had $21 million on hand at the end of July; the Republican National Committee (RNC) had $75 million after raising another $26 million.
But McCain and Obama are in different situations. McCain is taking the $84 million in public financing for the general election. Which means he has to spend down what he’s raised and raising between now and the Republican national convention early next month. This is why he’s been matching Obama, who isn’t taking public financing and can raise as much as possible, in TV ads for the last couple of months. He’s exhausting his cash reserves. Obama is keeping up, and waiting to unload it all after the conventions.
The wild card? The RNC. Which has raised a lot more money than the Dems’ party counterpart, though Obama is helping the DNC play catch-up.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu and Chicago. He has no public events. This is his last day of vacation, and he returns to Chicago with his family tonight.
John McCain is in Colorado and Long Beach, California. He has no public events. McCain is conferring with top advisors and major backers and doing some fundraising.
Late Saturday afternoon, both candidates make their first joint appearance of the campaign, in California, at Orange County’s Saddleback Church. It’s not a debate.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. …
So what does it all mean? It means that most of what you’re hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let’s see if it can avoid turning it into a loss. … From my other blog on the Huffington Post.
** SCHWARZENEGGER AT BORDER GOVERNORS CONFERENCE, LIVE WEBCASTS THIS AFTERNOON. While the California Legislature makes its latest sounds about hearings and maybe/maybe not a vote on a proposed budget this weekend — there is no accord in place, contrary to some reports elsewhere — Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears today at his Border Governors Conference in LA.
The conference has drawn all 10 governors of the US and Mexican border states, including New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, and Texas Governor Rick Perry.
This was to have been a huge event for Schwarzenegger, and he was very into it, with major preparations for three days of conferring with the governors of US and Mexican states along the border between the two nations. But his involvement has been curtailed by the increasingly bizarre and chronic state budget crisis.
Based on what California is doing on energy, climate change, and clean tech, the conference has focused on ways to create a thriving green economic border region.
At 12:30 PM, Schwarzenegger will participate with the other governors in the conference closing ceremony at Universal Studios.
At 2:15 PM, Schwarzenegger will participate with the other governors in a press conference about the upshot of the conference.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $112 per barrel. The drop of over $35 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia, confounding much speculation and reporting to the contrary, actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
Barack Obama will launch this new ad during Olympics telecasts in the next few days.
** OBAMA BREAKS 2 MILLION CONTRIBUTOR MARK. Barack Obama’s campaign announced today that he has just gone over the two million mark in the number of contributors to his presidential campaign. This is many times more than have contributed to John McCain, Hillary Clinton, or any other presidential candidate.
Obama bests retired Navy Captain McCain in active duty military contributions in all branches of service other than the Marine Corps.
In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore by 2 to 1 in this measure. It was closer in 2004, when Bush ran against Vietnam War hero John Kerry.
** MUSHARRAFF TO LEAVE OFFICE. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraff will leave office in a few days to head off an impeachment proceeding against him. The new Pakistani parliamentary leadership has not been as supportive of US efforts against Al Qaeda Prime and Taliban forces using Pakistan as a safe haven. And Musharraff’s support was problematic enough.
** IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER: 3-YEAR TIMETABLE FOR U.S. WITHDRAWAL. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari says that previously undisclosed terms of the status of forces draft agreement between the US and Iraq necessary to keep troops in-country beyond this year would establish a three-year timeline for the withdrawal of US combat troops. And that beginning next year, US troops could not launch attacks or make arrests without approval by a joint Iraq-US committee. The facts on the ground in Iraq are overtaking the rhetorical debate in American politics.
** MCCAIN: “WE ARE ALL GEORGIANS.” Writing in today’s Wall Street Journal, with a piece entitled “We Are All Georgians,” John McCain posits a world historical moment on the border of Russia. He sees major signs of European movement against Russia in the wake of the war with Georgia, with moves to shun Russia. I don’t see that. The opposite, in fact, as I’ve already noted.
McCain writes: “Despite a French-brokered cease-fire — which worryingly does not refer to Georgia’s territorial integrity — Russian attacks have continued.”
It’s not surprising that the Pentagon’s assessment is that Russia is generally complying with the ceasefire agreement negotiated on behalf of the European Union by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. It’s quite advantageous to Russia.
Russia has won a big victory. Now we’ll see if it can avoid over-reaching. Which it should be able to do. Meanwhile, some hysterics still believe it is about to assault the Georgian capital.
UPDATE: Hillary Clinton says that she will cast her superdelegate vote in Denver for Barack Obama.
** HILLARY WILL BE PLACED IN NOMINATION. Hillary Clinton will have her name placed in nomination at the Democratic national convention in Denver. This is actually customary for runners-up for the Democratic nomination. For example, Bill Clinton had no problem with Jerry Brown being placed in nomination at the 1992 convention in New York, even though there was far less love lost between the Clinton and Brown camps than there is between the Obama and Clinton camps.
But everything is negotiable between Obama and the Clintons. And there is a recurrent suspicion — or, more accurately, a pipe dream — that the Clintons have one last gasp try for the nomination in mind.
** “ADDITIONAL SECURITY MEASURES” PROVISION — WHY RUSSIAN FORCES CAN STILL ROAM AROUND GEORGIA. As I mentioned in my column linked below, the temporary peace deal worked out by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Moscow is pretty advantageous to Russia. Now there are more specifics. One is a provision allowing Russia to “implement additional security measures” in Georgia prior to the arrival of agreed upon international peacekeepers. Moscow, naturally, is interpreting this in the way that you see. Don’t expect an attack on the Georgian capital, though. That clearly would violate the terms of the ceasefire. And perhaps provide the only longterm backfire to what has been a very successful operation for Russia.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. … From my other blog.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu. He is on vacation.
John McCain is in Aspen, Colorado. He will appear at the Aspen Institute in the evening. He has a Wall Street Journal op-ed calling for a hard line with Russia and his campaign will release his technology policy.
After days of negative Olympics advertising, John McCain began running this ad last night — which ran here last week but barely aired — on “the original maverick.”
UPDATE: John McCain began running a positive TV ad during last night’s Olympics telecast.
** MCCAIN’S OLYMPIC ATTACK AD AND OTHER TV A.D.D. WAR ODDITIES. John McCain is running attack ads against Barack Obama during the Olympics telecasts! The first time either party has run major advertising during the Games and one is going all-negative in the midst of all that positive uplift.
It’s just the latest curious note in the last week of TV ad wars. Which were really the ADD wars, with both sides launching and swapping out TV ads so quickly they couldn’t possibly have had any impact in actual paid airings. … From my other blog.
** SCHWARZENEGGER AT BORDER GOVERNORS CONFERENCE, LIVE WEBCASTS THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears today at his Border Governors Conference in LA. This was to have been a huge event for him, and he was very into it, with major preparations for three days of conferring with the governors of US and Mexican states along the border between the two nations. But his involvement has been curtailed by the increasingly bizarre and chronic state budget crisis.
Following a mid-day press conference, Schwarzenegger returns to Sacramento for private meetings in and around the Capitol.
He appears with First Lady Maria Shriver early this morning at her forum on human trafficking. The event began at 8:15 AM. At 10:30 AM, he gives the opening ceremony speech in the auditorium at Universal Studios. The focus of his speech, and the conference itself, is building green economies in the border region.
After that, he tours a major green tech exposition, then holds a press conference at 11:50 AM.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading around $116 per barrel. The drop of over $31 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
** NEVADA POLL: SLIGHT MCCAIN LEAD. The new Rasmussen Poll of the Silver State has John McCain slightly ahead of Barack Obama, 45% to 42%. Nevada has gone Bush the last two elections, but it’s one of the battleground Mountain West states targeted by Obama, who recently began running a state TV ad targeted at McCain’s support for the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository.
** EIGHT KEY THINGS TO KNOW, AND ONE BIG QUESTION, ABOUT RUSSIA V. GEORGIA. Russian politics is very tough. While I’m no expert, I’ve followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians talk through their hats about what they’re going to “do,” here are eight key things to know — and one big question — about the Russia-Georgia War. … From my other blog.
** PENNSYLVANIA POLL: OBAMA BY 5. OR 8. The new Franklin and Marshall poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in this must-win state for the Democrat, 46% to 41% amongst likeliest voters, and 44% to 36% amongst all voters. President Bush is extraordinarily unpopular and the country is viewed as being way off on the wrong track. But lingering doubts about the tyro Illinois senator are keeping this much closer than it should be.
** NORTH CAROLINA POLL: MCCAIN LEAD BUT OBAMA IS MOVING. The new Survey USA poll has John McCain leading Barack Obama in red state North Carolina, 49% to 45%. The four-point gap is an improvement for Obama, who trailed by eight in the last poll. Other recent polls have also shown Obama in striking distance. This is a must-win state for McCain. Obama’s support is going up amongst better-educated voters, but down amongst less-educated voters.
** FLORIDA POLL: A MAC EDGE. A new Insider Advantage poll of Florida shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 48% to 44%. Obama has been advertising heavily in Florida, trying to take the state out of the Republican column, or at least force McCain to spend heavily to defend it. But so far, Obama’s coming up a bit short.
** OBAMA CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCES CONVENTION KEYNOTER. The Democratic Natioanl Convention at the end of the month in Denver will be keynoted by former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is running way ahead in the race for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner.
Warner started out running for president, as an attractive moderate and former high tech entrepreneur. But he didn’t gain much traction, and opted for the Senate seat instead. After much speculation that he might be Obama’s running mate — and polls showing he might deliver Virginia — he continued on in the Senate race.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on behalf of the European Union, and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the Russia-Georgia ceasefire terms yesterday in Moscow. But there are reports Russia is violating the ceasefire.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu. He is on vacation. Last night, he attended a private fundraiser that raised $1.3 million.
John McCain is in Pontiac, West Bloomfield, Livonia, and Birmingham, Michigan.
** MCCAIN’S OLYMPIC ATTACK AD AND OTHER TV A.D.D. WAR ODDITIES. John McCain is running attack ads against Barack Obama during the Olympics telecasts! The first time either party has run major advertising during the Games and one is going all-negative in the midst of all that positive uplift.
It’s just the latest curious note in the last week of TV ad wars. Which were really the ADD wars, with both sides launching and swapping out TV ads so quickly they couldn’t possibly have had any impact in actual paid airings. … From my other blog.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is engaged in private meetings and conversations in and around the Capitol today, mostly on the topic of the chronic state budget crisis. He has no public events scheduled.
His long-scheduled Border Governors Conference, which runs through Friday, does begin later today in LA. This brings together the governors of the US and Mexican states along the border between the two countries. But Schwarzenegger’s participation in his own conference is being curtailed due to the budget crisis.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $114 to $115 per barrel reange. The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia actually decreased the geopolitical risk premium.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, with his country’s geostrategic objectives achieved, calls a halt to military operations short of the bloody taking of the Georgian capital city Tbilisi.
** WOLFSON’S PREPOSTEROUS REVISIONISM RE EDWARDS. Former Hillary Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson, playing his latest role last night as Fox News commentator, claimed that if the Edwards affair had been revealed early on, Hillary would have won the nomination handily.
Well, this is just more spurious nonsense.
I am sure that Wolfson knew at least as much as I did about the Edwards private sex life at the time. And here is the deal.
If the Edwards affair with “Alison Poole” — excuse me, Rielle Hunter, er, Lisa Druck, the actual “real names” for Edwards’ inamorata (the name I mentioned first was her name in the novels of Jay McInerney and Bret Easton Ellis, who wrote about her and her ’80s/’90s ilk in their famed novels of the era) — had been revealed early on, Barack Obama would have won an even bigger victory in Iowa. And he would have certainly won New Hampshire and Nevada, and the Democratic race would have cost the ever annoying Mr. Wolfson a great deal of money.
Game over.
At some point I may write more about the actual politics of this quite silly fandango …
I like Edwards. But the reality is, as I have mentioned, all he did in the race was make it harder for Obama to close out the nomination fight early on.
** MORE SCREWY PRESS COVERAGE — RE ARNOLD-TURNED-MAC SUPREMO SCHMIDT. The New York Times, in its infinite wisdom as the paper of record and all that, ran a piece on Sunday about the big rifts in Camp McCain. None of which is actually new. John McCain likes to talk to a lot of people on his “gold” cell phone. Yep. Former chief strategists Mike Murphy and John Weaver don’t dig the current negativity. Yep.
While Schmidt is not someone you want to run into as a hostile in a dark alley, he has not been a member of the US armed forces. His wife was in the Navy, however.
The Times was going off of McCain’s nickname for Schmidt. Which is “Sergeant Schmidt.” Oops.
** FIGHTER PILOT. The New York Times, as noted by the Huffington Post, has corrected its longstanding characterization of John McCain as a former fighter pilot. The truth is, without going into all the stuff that either publication says, that McCain was not a fighter pilot in the Vietnam War.
This is why NWN has always referred to him as a naval aviator or, simply, a highly decorated combat pilot. In that era, fighter pilots in the Navy flew the F-4 Phantom. Assault jet pilots flew the A-4 Skyhawk. Each variant of naval aviator was a ballsy sort of guy. This is especially true of guys who flew attack missions over Hanoi, probably the most heavily air-defensed city in the history of world conflict. Which applies to McCain.
But the reality is that McCain was not an elite of the elite fighter pilot or test pilot. Which does nothing to diminish his status as perhaps the most famous Vietnam War hero. He just wasn’t Chuck Yeager. Who, as it turns out, was not a giant war hero. Just a great and very brave and consequential pilot.
CORRECTION: Chuck Yeager was actually a highly decorated war hero. Among other things, he received a Silver Star for shooting down five German planes in one day.
** RUSSIAN VICTORY. With the resurgent great power’s objectives achieved — within Georgia, in Eastern Europe, and in other geopolitical spheres, including the Middle East — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russian forces are halting their offensive short of the bloody taking of the Georgian capital city of Tbilisi.
The truth is that Russia does not need to take Tbilisi. That would end up as a PR disaster. Russia has already destroyed the reputation of the Georgian leader who earned his law degree at Georgetown and named a street of his capital city after President Bush. Who proved impotent in the event of a real war to do anything to protect the current Georgian administration, which will not last.
All of this was quite predictable to anyone paying attention.
Russia has shattered the US-armed and US-trained Georgian military. It has destroyed the Georgian air force and made irrelevant the Georgian navy. It has easily pushed Georgian forces out of the breakaway republic of South Ossetia — where Georgia obligingly provided the pretext for Russian moves with a bloody offensive against the capital city — and the coastal province of Abkhazia. It has taken the crucial choke points within Georgia, effortlessly showing its control over Georgia’s ability to resupply by sea or air. And Georgia’s role as a purportedly major energy pipeline free from Russian control.
There’s much more to say, which I will get to. A key question. Which American official gave the greenlight to the Georgian offensive against Tshkinvali? That provided the pretext necessary for Russia to show that its armed forces are once again capable of rapid combined arms maneuvers even against America-armed and trained forces.
** VOTERS PREFER OLYMPICS COVERAGE OVER PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN COVERAGE BY 2 TO 1.This new snap poll by Rasmussen shows that American voters prefer consuming coverage of the Olympic Games over the presidential campaign by a 58% to 29% margin. This is especially true amongs Republicans. Democrats, however, have a near even split.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu. Though on vacation still until the end of the week, he appears at a private fundraiser tonight.
John McCain is in York and Lancaster, Pennsylvania and Teaneck, New Jersey.
John McCain’s latest web video, asking if you have yet joined the fan club of “The One.”
** MCCAIN’S OLYMPIC ATTACK AD! AND OTHER TV A.D.D. ODDITIES. John McCain is running attack ads against Barack Obama during the Olympics telecasts! The first time either party has run major advertising during the Games and one is going all-negative in the midst of all that positive uplift.
It’s just the latest curious note in the last week of TV ad wars. Which were really the ADD wars, with both sides launching and swapping out TV ads so quickly they couldn’t possibly have had any impact in actual paid airings. … From my other blog.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is engaged in private meetings and conversations in and around the Capitol today, mostly on the topic of the chronic state budget crisis. He has no public events scheduled.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $113 to $114 per barrel reange. The drop of over $33 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia is actually decreasing the geopolitical risk premium, as traders believe that Moscow can do whatever it wants in its near abroad and the US and other nations are powerless to prevent it.
Barack Obama turns John McCain’s negative ads against him in a new spot set to run tomorrow.. “For decades, he’s been Washington’s biggest celebrity …”
** RUSSIAN STRATEGY ROLLING OUT LIKE CLOCKWORK. There is a long way and a short way to put this. I can’t write 5 columns a day and carry on with other things, so here is the short way.
As I suggested from the beginning of the Russia-Georgia war, four days ago, Georgian forces made a huge mistake in launching an offensive against the capital of the pro-Russian breakaway republic of South Ossetia. Russian forces, as I’ve been reporting on and off for about 10 years, have gotten plenty of for-real practice in Dagestan and Chechnya in developing faster-moving, capable ground forces that can work in combined arms mode.
The White House, or at least whomever there is in regular contact with the US military advisors on the ground in once prospective NATO member Georgia, home to what was until a few hours ago the third largest national contingent on the US side in Iraq, totally miscalculated in allowing Georgia to assault Tshkinvali. This provided a rationale for major Russian intervention. Which has now gone beyond the original rationale into sheer pretexting.
But there is nothing that the US can do about it. As I noted at the outset, with the current constellation of forces — dictated by the dragging wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — America has nothing to bring to bear against Russia in its near abroad that would be anything other speed bumps.
Russia is taking advantage of the situation to make an example of Georgia, and its US-educated president and US-trained and armed military.
Without taking the time to go into all the place names and sitreps, Russian forces are carving up the country. Separating South Ossetia from Georgia, and coastal Abkhazia, from what then remains of Georgia. Seizing the key choke points within the country and isolating it from foreign reinforcement by sea or air. And making it clear that Russia controls the major oil pipeline there. Contrary to an earlier Drudge Report flash falsely claiming that Russia was trying to destroy the pipeline.
As readers know, NWN follows oil markets every day. If Nigerian rebels can destroy major pipelines, the Russian armed forces certainly can.
Tellingly, the global price of oil has actually DECLINED following the Russian invasion of Georgia.
Despite the political rhetoric from people who may not understand the overall here, the geopolitical risk premium of the oil price has actually declined. More to say on another occasion.
** OIL CLOSES LOWER AGAIN, DESPITE RUSSIA-GEORGIA WAR. Crude oil closed down again today, at $114.45 per barrel That is down a whopping $33 per barrel in one month. This, despite the massive Russian response to Georgia’s offensive four days ago against the capital of the pro-Russian breakaway republic of South Ossetia.
Completely counter to some initial reporting in the US and other Western media that the war would drive oil prices skyward and that Russia was out to destroy a major oil pipeline. It may be that some know how to play geopolitics. And some do not.
** MCCAIN’S OLYMPIC ATTACK AD! AND OTHER TV A.D.D. ODDITIES. John McCain is running attack ads against Barack Obama during the Olympics telecasts! The first time either party has run major advertising during the Games and one is going all-negative in the midst of all that positive uplift.
It’s just the latest curious note in the last week of TV ad wars. Which were really the ADD wars, with both sides launching and swapping out TV ads so quickly they couldn’t possibly have had any impact in actual paid airings. … From my other blog.
** SCHWARZENEGGER TO SUE STATE CONTROLLER OVER PAY CUT ORDER. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s administration will file suit this afternoon to force state Controller John Chiang to comply with his executive order temporarily cutting state workers to the federal minimum wage until the passage of the much-delayed state budget. Schwarzenegger had given Chiang until noon today to comply. Chiang has been refusing to do so, claiming legal authority on his side. But today he replied with a three-page letter asking till the end of the week to further study the matter.
** COLORADO POLL: OBAMA HAS SLIGHT EDGE. The latest Public Policy Polling survey of battleground state Colorado has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain, 48% to 44%. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall also leads the Senate race in this anchor state of the Rocky Mountain West, home of the Denver convention for the Democrats at the end of the month.
** VIRGINIA POLL: MCCAIN-OBAMA DEADLOCK. In the new Survey USA poll of battleground state Virginia, it’s John McCain 48%, Barack Obama 47%. In that scenario, superior turnout wins the day. Former Governor Mark Warner has a massive lead in race for the seat of retiring Republican Senator John Warner.
The Morning Column: MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK.
Clearly not one of the most active weeks in the campaign on tap. The Olympics are underway. The leading candidate, Barack Obama, is on vacation with his family in Hawaii until Saturday. Both campaigns acknowledge that this is, the height of summer, is a time in the campaign in which voters are paying less attenion anyway.
But that won’t stop the campaigns, especially John McCain’s, from trying to act as though things are hot and heavy. Nor some in the media from drumming things up.
Obama and McCain have taken the unprecedented step of doing advertising during Olympics broadcasts. Obama’s ad, like every other, is positive, as you would expect. I ran it here on Friday (see below). McCain’s ad is negative. (See below.) I’ll get into these varying ad strategies in a new column out today.
After a week of seesawing ADD ad wars, with TV ads purportedly changing in and out at the seeming drop of a hat, Obama began seeing upward movement in the polls again. But McCain’s heavily negative approach, which began during Obama’s successful tour of the Middle East and Europe, has succeeded in preventing Obama from floating away prior to the start of the Olympics.
Despite the campaign’s efforts, news is being dominated from abroad. From China, of course, for the Olympics. (And wasn’t that a sensational men’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay victory by Team USA, with the American anchor coming from far behind against the arrogant world champ — “We will smash the Americans” — to out-touch the French team in a time that broke the world relay record by four seconds?)
And from Russia and Georgia, of course, where the White House is flummoxed by what has taken place. As I noted early on, the Georgian offensive against the capital of breakaway republic South Ossetia provided Russia with a rationale to shatter the US-backed and US-trained Georgian military. It’s doing just that.
There are hundreds of American military advisors and trainers in Georgia. None casualties to date, thankfully. They must have known of the Georgian move against Tshkinvali. A move which was an obvious miscalculation. How high up does this strategic screw-up go?
The fact is there is nothing the US can do militarily to aid its Georgian allies, Russian neighbors ruled for most of the past two centuries from Moscow, whom it has tried unsuccessfully to elevate to NATO membership.
Europe relies on Russia for energy. The US relies on Russia for support against, and its not providing the most advanced weapons systems to, Iran.
The Bush/Cheney Administration is posturing about the highly aggresssive Russian military moves, which are designed to intimidate other countries near it in Europe and Central Asia. But it has no strategy. And the presidential candidates — McCain, the most anti-Russian of American pols, and Obama — have nothing to offer but talk.
Speaking of strategy, the various moves to end California’s chronic budget impasse are running up against some deadlines. Fundamental budget reforms, which need adoption by the fractious Legislature, probably have to be approved by popular vote. A bill to sweeten the passage of the high-speed rail bonds already on the November ballot needs to be approved soon. So we begin the amusing game of … What’s That Deadline? Is it August 16th, for preparation of election materials? Or is it, as is usually the case, sometime, you know, later than that?
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Honolulu, off the campaign trail.
John McCain is in Erie and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
McCain has just issued a forceful statement condemning Russia for it military intervention in Georgia, saying that no matter what Georgian forces did attacking the breakaway South Ossetian capital of Tshkinvali, the very forceful Russian move has “no place in 21st century Europe.”
For his part, Obama has condemned the wide-ranging action, covered on NWN for a fourth day running — my read: Georgian forces made a big mistake in providing Russia with a rationale for devastating their military and more — and is putting out a new TV ad deriding McCain as “Washington’s biggest celebrity.” The ad begins running tomorrow on national cable TV. It does not replace is positive Olympics ad.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will be engaged in private meetings and discussion in and around the Capitol Monday, centering on the chronic state budget crisis. He has no public events scheduled.
** THE EFECTIVE MR. SCHMIDT. John McCain’s new campaign director Steve Schmidt, who I know well — profiled here in my piece a month ago on the Huffington Post, which also goes over his tumultuous then first week in the new role — is proving to be very effective in keeping McCain competitive with Barack Obama in a bad year for Republicans. But how will the mostly negative approach play out over time?
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says American critics are being hypocritical about what Georgia did in South Ossetia.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil is trading in the $115 to $116 per barrel reange. The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia is actually decreasing the geopolitical risk premium, as traders believe that Moscow can do whatever it wants in its near abroad and the US and other nations are powerless to prevent it.
The Terminator franchise reboots. Arnold Schwarzenegger is not in this movie.
** RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN WAR DEVELOPMENTS. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, journeys to Moscow this week for meetings with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. French Foreign Minister Bernard Koouchner, travels there Monday, following his present visit to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.
The US is presenting a resolution at the UN Security Council protesting Russia’s move against US ally Georgia. Georgia’s military contingent in Iraq, third largest of any nation behind the US and Britain, with some 2000 troops, is being evacuated via US air transport and returned to Georgia.
Meanwhile, Putin — the former president who gave up office, as constitutionally required, to his former chief of staff Medvedev but who retains power as head of the ruling United Russia party and as the country’s prime minister — left the Beijing Olympics and is overseeing Russian military operations inside Georgia from a forward deployed base across the border from the breakaway republic of South Ossetia in Russian North Ossetia.
Russia has rejected Georgia’s offer of a ceasefire and, having captured the South Ossetian capital which had been overrun by Georgian forces on Thursday — in what looks like a boneheaded strategic move by the Georgian leadership — and the BBC reports that its forces continue to carry out raids inside Georgia. Russia has destroyed Georgia’s small air force.
There are hundreds of American military advisors and trainers in Georgia, there to help pave the way for Georgia’s future accession to NATO – a plan bitterly resisted by Russia – and train Georgian troops for service in Iraq. Did they know that Georgian forces were going to move into the South Ossetian capital? Which moved triggered the Russian offensive.
In addition, as suggested Saturday morning, another front has opened up in another breakaway region, Abkhazia, which fronts on the Black Sea. Elements of the Russian Navy’s Black Fleet are now off the coast and in port, with one Georgian missile boat reportedly sunk. The US Navy has made no move to prevent this maneuver.
Breakaway Abkhaz forces have launched an offensive against Georgian troops currently occupying part of the province, called the Kodori Gorge. Georgia says that Russian paratroopers are taking part in the attack. Russia denies this. But given the huge number of Russian tourists now in Afkhazia, it’s highly likely that Russian troops are on the ground. To protect them, of course …
Barack Obama is in Honolulu. He is off the campaign trail.
John McCain is in Sedona, Arizona. He is off the campaign trail.
** OCEAN’S ELEVEN IS NOW TEN. Bernie Mac, the famed black comedian who starred in his own long-running Fox TV show and was part of the Ocean’s 11 crew with George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, and Don Cheadle, died suddenly of pneumonia in a Chicago hospital. He was only 50.
Mac got into some controversy just last month at a Barack Obama fundraiser when, warming up the crowd before the introducing the Democratic presidential nominee, he got into some risque humor. Which prompted Obama to mildly upbraid him at the time.
Which is probably not what this very amusing comedian and talented actor should be remembered for.
** SATURDAY — WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is on vacation with his family in Hawaii. He delivers the Democratic radio address today and has a new attack ad in Nevada, slamming John McCain for pushing the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site while opposing moving nuclear waste through his own state.
John McCain speaks to the Disabled American Veterans convention today in Las Vegas. He also delivers his weekly radio address.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are in command of the breakaway South Ossetian republic’s capital of Tshkinvali. The city is reportedly mostly in ruins from shelling by Georgian forces. Who either began on their own or were provoked into beginning an offensive against the breakaway republic. Whichever is the case, it was a big mistake on the part of the pro-American Georgian leadership, which has sought to join NATO, with US encouragement, but has been blocked by other European nations.
The Russia-Georgia war, as I’ve mentioned, is a big setback for the US in a geopolitical sense. Georgia has had the third largest remaining national contingent in Iraq. But those troops, about 2200 in total, are now being withdrawn — via US transport, which should ensure that they won’t be shot down by Russian fighters — to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi to guard against a potential Russian move against all of Georgia.
Consider. Russia has effectively removed the only other sizeable contingent of coalition troops from Iraq that is not American or British. (Australia got on the exit escalator when the John Howard administration went down in a landslide.)
Russia has also demonstrated to other nations that the US, with its forces configured as they are by the Bush White House, is unable to back up the administrations it is supporting in Eastern and Central Europe in its longstanding strategy of NATO encirclement of Russia. Notwithstanding a show-of-force US military exercise in Georgia last month.
Of course, you are not reading anything about this in the conventional US media. Which you should definitely rely upon if you like being surprised.
** FOUR ON THE FLOOR: MAC TV. So why did lovable old John McCain suddenly put out FOUR negative TV ads in less than two weeks?
After the latest (and rather good) version of his positive biographical spot went wide?
I’ll lay out the sequence of events and reasons at each juncture.
Are new campaign director Steve Schmidt and company crazy like foxes?
Or just crazy?
Well, here’s the deal. Schmidt and company may be setting themselves up for a big backlash. But in the short term, their plan has worked. From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. After crashing over $147 for yet another record on July 11th, crude oil closed on Friday at $115.20 per barrel. The drop of over $32 per barrel comes on acknowledgement that the weak US economy will cut future demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Russian war with Georgia is actually decreasing the geopolitical risk premium, as traders believe that Moscow can do whatever it wants in its near abroad and the US and other nations are powerless to prevent it.
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