Hillary Clinton in Unity, New Hampshire.
In this 4th of July week, Barack Obama and John McCain are taking very different tacks. McCain is heading for Latin America to burnish his already well-known foreign policy credentials, with tours of Colombia and Mexico. Obama is heading to Ohio and the Mountain West, the latter part of his new swing states strategy.
Both are continuing their TV ad campaigns, with Obama on the air in 18 states and McCain in 11. But McCain has a new ad up, pushing his new theme of energy security, while Obama continues his biographical introduction. And McCain has changed his slogan again, to “Putting Country First,” his third in a month.
Both candidates had some rocky moments last week. McCain chief strategist Charlie Black may be on a long vacation off a short pier after being quoted in a Fortune profile of McCain saying that a successful terrorist attack on US soil would help elect the Arizona senator. A lot of people think it’s true, incidentally. I don’t. And one of McCain’s biggest backers, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, criticized his oil policy. He also fell behind in Schwarzenegger’s California by a whopping 2 to 1 in the latest Rasmussen poll. The poll, bear in mind that pollster Scott Rasmussen is an avowed Republican, shows Obama opening up a massive lead over McCain in the Golden State, which Team McCain once saw as a possibility. It’s Obama 58%, McCain 30%. Frankly, this is the biggest lead I can recall in any such presidential poll of California voters. McCain’s shift in position for offshore oil drilling is a major backfire for he and his party in California.
John McCain’s new TV ad, and latest campaign slogan.
Obama got a big boost at the end of the week with his Unity, New Hampshire — a bit too clever, perhaps, sounding like the name of a TV show — rally with Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a much more compelling and polished speaker than when she began her presidential campaign. She and Barack Obama played off each other quite well. He with his slightly loosened French, er, royal blue tie, she with matching (trademark) pantsuit. (Actually, it may be more of a robin’s egg blue.) She either actually wants him to be elected president, or has become a very accomplished actress. 6000 people showing up in a field outside a town so small it doesn’t have an elected mayor. Where neither candidate actually campaigned in the New Hampshire primary, but where each received 107 votes.
Reviews are more mixed for Obama’s pivot to the center since the primaries. Some think he looks like a flip-flopper. Others think he looks like a smart politician. In the former camp politico.com, which has a feature pushing a theme. That Barack Obama is really just another conventional politician. This happens to be the theme pushed in a memo by McCain senior advisor Steve Schmidt, the former Schwarzenegger campaign manager. The argument is that Obama has made a mistake in the last two weeks. By not making “bold choices.” Or by, looking at it from another perspective, not playing into Republican hands. Decides not to give up massive fundraising advantage over McCain? Supposed mistake. Decides not to debate in McCain’s preferred and by far best format? Supposed mistake. Decides to favor the right of the individual to bear arms? Supposed mistake. Decides to support death penalty for the rapists of children? Supposed mistake. Decides not to punish telecom firms caught up in the post-9/11 fervor that cooperated with national security officials? Supposed mistake.
Of course, had Obama gone the other way on these issues, he would be derided as an idiot. Naturally. But it sure would have played into another favored Republican theme, that Obama is the most radical Democratic presidential nominee in history.
Nevertheless, the moves make it clear that Obama is a politician, for those who haven’t been following along. His positioning looks an awful lot like Bill Clinton’s, who was off in London for Nelson Mandela’s 90th birthday while his wife was schlepping off to a field in picturesque New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, with national polls delivering varying numbers, from a 15-point Obama lead to a dead-even race, battleground state polls are promising for Obama. In the new Quinnipiac polls for the Wall Street Journal, for example, Barack Obama leads John McCain in key swing states. In Colorado, it’s 49-44, Michigan 48-42, Minnesota (home of possible McCain running mate Governor Tim Pawlenty) 54-37, and Wisconsin 52-39. And in New Mexico, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the latest Rasmussen tracking poll, 47% to 39%.
But the most important numbers look to be the economic numbers. Crude oil closed over $140 per barrel Friday for the first time in history, at a whopping $140.90. It also hit a new intraday trading high of $142.99 per barrel. Gold is around a record high, the dollar is around a record low, and the stock market is on the cusp of beardom, with financial stocks especially nosediving.
The ballyhooed summit of oil producers and consumers in Saudi Arabia failed, with OPEC leaders insisting the problem of price is not a matter of supply, but largely one of speculation. They essentially washed their hands of any responsibility, which guarantees that the energy economy, and everything it affects, will be front and center in the presidential election. …
You can see the whole MMQB on PJ Media.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
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| Comments (39) |
Hillary Clinton looks good with Obama.
McCain’s ad is pretty good.
Obama’s moving to the center because that’s where presidential elections are won. McCain is still trying to nail down his neanderthal base. How on earth can McCain win?
Hillary did a great job with that speech with Barack. Good on her.
McCain’s ad isn’t smart. His record doesn’t back it up. He consistently has opposed renewable power and raising CAFE standards. The only thing that is “new” is his flip flop to the oil industry agenda of offshore drilling. This isn’t energy “security.” It’s putting the past first.
lol
This is what the election is about. The rest is rhetorical trash.
BB:The ballyhooed summit of oil producers and consumers in Saudi Arabia failed, with OPEC leaders insisting the problem of price is not a matter of supply, but largely one of speculation. They essentially washed their hands of any responsibility, which guarantees that the energy economy, and everything it affects, will be front and center in the presidential election.
I’m watching Obama’s patriotism speech now. It’s good. He’s taking this head on.
A wonderful speech by Hillary Clinton.
It sounds good. Can you post it?
Bill,
Great summary.
Still, and I know you won’t like it, perhaps the big development in recent days in Wes Clark’s frontal assault on McCain credibility as a national security and military leader. Clark says what few others in his Party could: That McCain’s misfortune to shot down and his heroism as a POW are not important qualifications to be president. This runs counter to MSM thinking, and it will be fascinating to watch how this plays out in the coming days.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202142.php
Update: Obama rejects Clark!
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202146.php
I’m starting to feel taken for granted by the Obama campaign. Maybe I should get used to it.
Did Obama apologize for Wes Clarks’ outrageous attack yesterday?
He rejected and denounced the comments.
What’s so outrageous about it, Marcus? McCain made an immeasurable sacrifice for his nation, but that heroism does not equate to expertise or wisdom.
It was an obvious backfire. Clark probably blew his veepstakes chances.
>Chris M:
Bill,
Great summary.
Still, and I know you won’t like it, perhaps the big development in recent days in Wes Clark’s frontal assault on McCain credibility as a national security and military leader. Clark says what few others in his Party could: That McCain’s misfortune to shot down and his heroism as a POW are not important qualifications to be president. This runs counter to MSM thinking, and it will be fascinating to watch how this plays out in the coming days.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202142.php
Update: Obama rejects Clark!
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202146.php
I’m starting to feel taken for granted by the Obama campaign. Maybe I should get used to it.
Jun 30, 2008 – 10:23 am
I’ll run the video tomorrow.
>Jack Aubrey:
It sounds good. Can you post it?
Jun 30, 2008 – 10:04 am
Clark came off as denigrating the nature of McCain’s service.
What he actually did is repeat something Bob Schieffer said as a question back to him.
Big mistake.
>Wilbur:
What’s so outrageous about it, Marcus? McCain made an immeasurable sacrifice for his nation, but that heroism does not equate to expertise or wisdom.
Jun 30, 2008 – 10:52 am
She’s really gotten to be an outstanding speaker.
>marcus waldron:
A wonderful speech by Hillary Clinton.
Jun 30, 2008 – 9:46 am
It’s a very good speech.
>Len:
I’m watching Obama’s patriotism speech now. It’s good. He’s taking this head on.
Jun 30, 2008 – 9:31 am
Not as diplomatically as I would put it.
>Jack Aubrey:
This is what the election is about. The rest is rhetorical trash.
BB:The ballyhooed summit of oil producers and consumers in Saudi Arabia failed, with OPEC leaders insisting the problem of price is not a matter of supply, but largely one of speculation. They essentially washed their hands of any responsibility, which guarantees that the energy economy, and everything it affects, will be front and center in the presidential election.
Jun 30, 2008 – 9:05 am
Thanks.
>Ann:
lol
Jun 30, 2008 – 8:39 am
One of the problems of having a long Senate record is that you can look at it.
>Capitol Boy:
McCain’s ad isn’t smart. His record doesn’t back it up. He consistently has opposed renewable power and raising CAFE standards. The only thing that is “new” is his flip flop to the oil industry agenda of offshore drilling. This isn’t energy “security.” It’s putting the past first.
Jun 30, 2008 – 8:37 am
She was pretty darn convincing.
>Capitol Boy:
Hillary did a great job with that speech with Barack. Good on her.
Jun 30, 2008 – 8:25 am
Obama is making the right moves. McCain could still win, however. Because the election is a long ways off, and the Democratic candidate should be further ahead.
>Prospero:
Obama’s moving to the center because that’s where presidential elections are won. McCain is still trying to nail down his neanderthal base. How on earth can McCain win?
Jun 30, 2008 – 8:05 am
Definitely better than the second. Though I think the first is the best cinematically.
>Jonas Blane:
McCain’s ad is pretty good.
Jun 30, 2008 – 7:54 am
They have a hard-won rapport.
>Jonas Blane:
Hillary Clinton looks good with Obama.
Jun 30, 2008 – 7:53 am
Doh.
Bill Bradley:
It was an obvious backfire. Clark probably blew his veepstakes chances.
>Chris M:
Bill,
Great summary.
Still, and I know you won’t like it, perhaps the big development in recent days in Wes Clark’s frontal assault on McCain credibility as a national security and military leader. Clark says what few others in his Party could: That McCain’s misfortune to shot down and his heroism as a POW are not important qualifications to be president. This runs counter to MSM thinking, and it will be fascinating to watch how this plays out in the coming days.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202142.php
Update: Obama rejects Clark!
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/202146.php
I’m starting to feel taken for granted by the Obama campaign. Maybe I should get used to it.
Jun 30, 2008 – 10:23 am
Jun 30, 2008 – 10:52 am
And just what are McCain’s “well-known foreign policy credentials”? He voted for the disastrous and illegal invasion of Iraq. He supported Reagan’s murderous contras in Nicaragua. He voted for the Military Commissions act which enables trials without due process. And of course he famously showed his ignorance about Iraq when he stated: “As you know, there are al Qaeda operatives that are taken back into Iran, given training as leaders, and they’re moving back into Iraq.”
McCain foreign policy credentials are non-existent. He doesn’t even support expanding health care to veterans or the new GI bill.
I’d like to see one example of legislation McCain brought forward regarding foreign policy that benefited Americans, not ones that bankrupted the Treasury, fomented terrorism, or caused innocent civilians in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East to be murdered.
If nothing else, from the Obama campaign’s perspective, Clark’s comments were very poorly timed, what with the Obama-Bill Clinton rapprochement and Obama’s big patriotism speech. That’s the news that the Obama team wanted to put out today. Definitely the wrong time for a prominent Dem to attack the other guy; I’m surprised this wasn’t better coordinated.
I now see that the campaign had to do what it did, denouncing Clark’s comments, but I do see the kernel of truth at the core of what Clark had to say, namely that being shot down and surviving an awful imprisonment as a POW, while certainly acts of great personal bravery and national service, are not particularly good qualifications for becoming president.
And, agreed, this is almost certainly fatal to Clark’s VP chances.
As you know, I like Wes Clark, which is why I’m not playing this up.
What Clark did wrong is he made McCain sound like a screw-up, rather than a hero.
He should have just contrasted McCain’s background with something else, like, you know, commanding NATO in a successful war.
I think if you care to look without the tunnel vision, you’ll find a few things even you would like.
>Paul Burton:
And just what are McCain’s “well-known foreign policy credentials”?
What Clark did wrong is he made McCain sound like a screw-up, rather than a hero. – Meaning that Clark screwed up the delivery, but not the mission.
I’d say the value of damaging the target wasn’t worth the blowback. Should have used laser-guided comments, rather than napalm.
great analysis, Bill. It’s why I love this site. I like Clark, too. But I’ve never been sold on his campaign abilities. Glad we got a clear view now rather than later.
Thanks, Pat. Clark did, actually, well, aside from the one sentence, which he actually repeated from Bob Schieffer’s question.
He should have set his M-16 selector switch to semi-automatic fire, sighted in, and slowly pulled the trigger, on the metaphorical target.
>Brasky:
I’d say the value of damaging the target wasn’t worth the blowback. Should have used laser-guided comments, rather than napalm.
Jun 30, 2008 – 5:19 pm
In this case, when you screw up the delivery, you screw up the mission.
However, Team McCain shouldn’t keep harping on this. Because that gives Clark more of an ongoing forum to make his real points.
>Hap Hazard:
What Clark did wrong is he made McCain sound like a screw-up, rather than a hero. – Meaning that Clark screwed up the delivery, but not the mission.
Jun 30, 2008 – 4:24 pm
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