Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.
** NEW NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA UP 12 IN TWO-WAY, 15 IN FOUR-WAY. In the brand-new Bloomberg/LA Times Poll, taken June 19-23, Barack Obama leads John McCain in a one-on-one match-up, 49% to 37%. When Libertarian Bob Barr and Green Ralph Nader are included, Obama’s lead over McCain increases, 48% to 33%. Only 13% say America is on the right track. Two years ago, prior to the Democratic takeover of Congress, that number was 30%. President Bush’s job approval rating is a record low 23%; more than half the voters say McCain would continue Bush’s policies.
There is a major enthusiasm gap, with far more of Obama’s supporters enthusiastic about him than McCain’s supporters are about him. Half the voters think the economy is the top issue, and Obama has a nearly two to one over McCain on that issue. Two-thirds of voters want American troops out of Iraq in a year, even though the situation has improved. 51% have a positive view of the Democratic Party; 29% have a positive view of the Democratic Party. It’s not all roses for Obama. McCain has a slight edge amongst independents in this poll — I suspect because this poll has a different definition of partisan ID — and a majority of voters backs McCain’s new plan for offshore oil drilling as a solution to the current oil and gasoline price crises. Ultimately, however, I believe this issue is a problem for McCain.
** MORMON CHURCH WILL CAMPAIGN FOR CALIFORNIA GAY MARRIAGE BAN. The Mormon Church will be campaigning to pass a November initiative to make same sex marriage unconstitutional in California. (h/t NWN poster Dana) The California Supreme Court, dominated by Republicans, recently declared the practice constitutional. I don’t think the Mormon move is a smart one. Church members will be exhorted during church services to participate in the campaign.
John McCain promotes his controversial new energy policy in this web ad.
** INCIDENTALLY … In my view, John McCain’s new move in favor of offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Las Vegas and Los Angeles. In Vegas, he meets with voters to discuss problems in the energy economy. In LA, he appears at a big fundraiser (discussed in the Monday Morning Quarterback column) for Democratic unity organized in large part by former Clinton supporters. The two-step event ($2300 reception and concert and $28,500 dinner) is at the Los Angeles Music Center and will be attended by various stars.
John McCain is in California, with stops in Santa Barbara, Riverside, and Newport Beach. He has fundraisers in Riverside and Newport Beach. Last night, he had a fundraiser in Santa Barbara. This morning he holds an environmental event at the Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former CIA Director James Woolsey. Santa Barbara, as you may know (and as an unhappy contributor at last night’s McCain fundraiser there pointed out), was in 1969 site of perhaps the most famous oil spill in the history, which helped spark the modern environmental movement.
Schwarzenegger has some conflicting views with McCain on energy, including offshore oil drilling. Woolsey was Bill Clinton’s first CIA director, and later became somewhat confusingly aligned with both neoconservative elements and climate change activists.
** MY LATEST PODCAST. The road ahead.
** OBAMA V. MCCAIN: THE AD WARS ARE ON. What Obama and McCain are doing in their first rounds of general election TV advertising. Along with the where and the why. From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are rising again, trading in the $137 to $138 per barrel range. The summit of oil producers and consumers in Saudi Arabia on Sunday was a failure.
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I don’t see the nuclear plants in McCain’s ad.
That was weak. Very, very, weak.
Solon I am sorry to say that I disagree totally, but I happen to agree with the message he is delivering, which no doubt affects my judgment.
At least McCain is getting something accomplished in California.
BB: ** INCIDENTALLY … In my view, John McCain’s new move in favor of offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
Pretty funny and accurate. I remember Pete Wilson saying something like “over my dead body” to suggestions about resumption of drilling..
lol
Hap,
That’s cool. I found the message good, the presentation poor. But, that’s just me. And I will go back and listen again as perhaps, once again, I’m wrong!
perhaps, once again, I’m wrong – I believe I am the top of the leader board in being wrong
Hap,
I’m trying to catch you!!!!
I did go back and listen. I do like the message…just don’t find him a forceful presenter. The part that gets me thinking this way begins with “wind, solar, biofuel”.
Now, since I’m within a short while of finishing this woderful book Mr. Bradley mentioned a couple weeks back, Born Fighting by Senator Webb, let me return to it and the smoke filled sky of the River City, or is it Los Angeles circa 1957…
Is the McCain campaign imploding?
MaCain’s support for offshore drilling proves he not even trying to win California. Yet if the controversial position helps persuade swing voters in toss-up states, it is a winner. Energy security and pricing are key issues for voters, ones where Obama has a more difficult story to tell beyond “let’s punish the greedheads.”
It’s not a winner, it’s a short-sighted con job.
Sorry, I’ve been dealing with a weird hacker e-mail attack, inundating my system this morning.
McCain is bringing false hope with his offshore oil flip-flop. It makes him look like a phony politician.
The ad sucks.
He should have highlighted gas prices first, then national security (linking the two) and capped it off with some pro-environmental stuff.
Basic outline:
“High gas prices are hurting American families and our nation’s economy. A large portion of every dollar we pay at the pump goes to country’s whose leaders don’t have our best interests at heart.
This is not a time for handwringing or despair – it’s time America took bold steps towards energy independence. Let’s move America to American sources of energy, and along the way, we can help the planet too.”
The execution sucked bigtime. Putting a picture of COAL in with a picture of windmills? That’s fracking insane! You can’t sell “environment” and “oil drilling” in the same ad. He steps on his own message with each alternating sentence. He starts with “Dependence on oil” and ends with “end oil drilling embargo”. WTF?
The narrative was off and the images were lost without a clear message.
The last bit at the podium sounds fake – “my friends” throws the whole thing off (he’s supposed to be commanding, not being buddies in this ad). The handful of cheers makes it sound like a Ron Paul rally. A nice round of healthy applause would be better.
Look, until McCain’s campaign has some sort of coherent narrative, every ad is going to be somewhere between sub-par and big-time disaster.
Very interesting.
In addition, I think he has sunk your prospective gubernatorial candidate for 2010. Those that were not already sunk.
>Kandy Kid:
MaCain’s support for offshore drilling proves he not even trying to win California. Yet if the controversial position helps persuade swing voters in toss-up states, it is a winner. Energy security and pricing are key issues for voters, ones where Obama has a more difficult story to tell beyond “let’s punish the greedheads.”
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:53 am
Mac is having to admit that his plan would have no impact for many years, if then.
>Jack Aubrey:
It’s not a winner, it’s a short-sighted con job.
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:59 am
No.
But it is conceptually incoherent.
>Len:
Is the McCain campaign imploding?
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:42 am
You’re trying to catch him?
Webb’s book is outstanding, no question about that.
>Sacramento Solon:
Hap,
I’m trying to catch you!!!!
I did go back and listen. I do like the message…just don’t find him a forceful presenter. The part that gets me thinking this way begins with “wind, solar, biofuel”.
Now, since I’m within a short while of finishing this woderful book Mr. Bradley mentioned a couple weeks back, Born Fighting by Senator Webb, let me return to it and the smoke filled sky of the River City, or is it Los Angeles circa 1957…
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:37 am
Not so!
>Hap Hazard:
perhaps, once again, I’m wrong – I believe I am the top of the leader board in being wrong
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:29 am
You got three officials of the McCain campaign and Tommy McClintock.
>Hap Hazard:
offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
Pretty funny and accurate. I remember Pete Wilson saying something like “over my dead body” to suggestions about resumption of drilling..
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:07 am
Hah!
>Capitol Boy:
At least McCain is getting something accomplished in California.
BB: ** INCIDENTALLY … In my view, John McCain’s new move in favor of offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
Jun 24, 2008 – 9:05 am
Add in more nuclear, yeah. Offshore drilling? It’s a gimmick.
>Hap Hazard:
Solon I am sorry to say that I disagree totally, but I happen to agree with the message he is delivering, which no doubt affects my judgment.
Jun 24, 2008 – 8:57 am
“Very interesting.”
Yes, well other than that, I have no opinion on the matter.
… Do you know, btw, that the oil companies already have more offshore drilling leases than they use?
Had to edit it for time …
>Jonas Blane:
I don’t see the nuclear plants in McCain’s ad.
Jun 24, 2008 – 8:38 am
So I see.
>Brasky:
“Very interesting.”
Yes, well other than that, I have no opinion on the matter.
Jun 24, 2008 – 11:01 am
“what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.”
Good point!
When (not if) Obama becomes president, does that provide a race between Brown and Westly? I would assume Westly would take a position within the administration (Commerce?) that would help boost his profile. And Air Force One is a nice backdrop for any campaign event…
I dunno. Let me talk to those guys and see if they’re going to run against each other.
Incidentally, the hacker attack has stopped.
For those keeping an eye on the whole gay marriage thing–latest news flash is Mormon Church urges members to join fight to pass the California measure in November:
http://www.localnews8.com/global/story.asp?s=8542904
Brown versus Westly…oh no…tough choice.
We’ll see.
Thanks, Dana. I don’t think that will work.
>Dana:
For those keeping an eye on the whole gay marriage thing–latest news flash is Mormon Church urges members to join fight to pass the California measure in November:
http://www.localnews8.com/global/story.asp?s=8542904
Jun 24, 2008 – 11:26 am
I think this drilling thing is a stone-cold loser. Except for Texas, who would get excited by this idea? There’s no chance of drilling off our coast and I’m betting dollars to donuts that it’ll hurt McCain in Florida.
On a lighter note, the recent polling looks increasingly dark for McCain. Obama now beyond the margin of error in Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. He’s also ahead by a point in INDIANA, a state I mentioned he had a good shot at a few weeks ago. he’s also outside the margin in Iowa and New Hampshire and virtually tied in Georgia.
but they love Johnny Mac in Utah.
Memo to Dobson: you’re reading that book upside down.
I think this drilling thing is a stone-cold loser. – here in California, you are absolutely right.
It is so cynical of McCain. He knows it won’t do anything about this crisis.
Mr. Bradley,
Follow the link to an article about an old friend of yours that appears in today’s Sacramento Bee:
http://www.sacbee.com/107/story/1034246.html
cynical of McCain. He knows it won’t do anything about this crisis. – Don’t know about McCain’s view, but I think increased oil production and refining by the US would have a salutary effect on the current crisis. Of course, not in the immediate sense, as in before the election or something, but in a very real way, a commitment to develop domestic oil supplies is a logical thing for a super power and super consumer nation to do, and I believe it would take quite a bit of volatility out of the oil markets. There is simply no good reason not to do this, in my opinion. No matter how hard we try, the world and the US is NOT going to be weaned off oil-based fuels, plastics, etc anytime soon, probably not within any of our lifetimes. Developing oil resources doesn’t preclude us from also further development of alternative fuel sources or improved engine technology, and the like. I can’t see why this is all viewed as a cynical ploy. I haven’t heard of a genuine, workable alternative from the left. Maybe someone could articulate that for me.
Why doesn’t McCain tell the oil companies to use the leases they already have?
Bill, your email was hacked? What is that about?
John McCain is the only candidate talking about nuclear power. If you want to stop global warming, you have got to have more nuclear plants. They work everywhere else. They’ll work here. Don’t be scared by green hysteria.
“Developing oil resources doesn’t preclude us from also further development of alternative fuel sources or improved engine technology…”
Hap, history proves the opposite. When prices went down etc. we stopped active development of alternative energy. Pursuing the relative paltry supplies in ANWR and offshore has too high a cost in lost time before we confront new realities and make some hard choices. Isn’t it time to do something for posterity instead of continuing to rob it?
“If you want to stop global warming, you have got to have more nuclear plants.”
I’m not so sure about that. Plus the waste disposal problem really hasn’t been solved.
That is your plan, Dana? What hard choices are you suggesting, that we stop using oil? How is that realistic? rationing? Creating a Mad Max / Road Warrior world is not exactly what I would hope to do for posterity, and I know my son would not appreciate it, either.
“MORMON CHURCH WILL CAMPAIGN FOR CALIFORNIA GAY MARRIAGE BAN.”
For the purposes of IRS regulations, the advocacy of a ballot measure campaign is considered “lobbying” and not “campaigning”.
It is strictly prohibited for churches to do “campaigning” but they may do a LIMITED amount of “lobbying.” Asking members to tithe some amount to the campaign – I’m a little concerned that they might go over that rather hazy line.
Some light reading on IRS regs and churches: http://tinyurl.com/4kqn9z
Outstanding.
** NEW NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA UP 12 IN TWO-WAY, 15 IN FOUR-WAY.