Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.
** NEW NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA UP 12 IN TWO-WAY, 15 IN FOUR-WAY. In the brand-new Bloomberg/LA Times Poll, taken June 19-23, Barack Obama leads John McCain in a one-on-one match-up, 49% to 37%. When Libertarian Bob Barr and Green Ralph Nader are included, Obama’s lead over McCain increases, 48% to 33%. Only 13% say America is on the right track. Two years ago, prior to the Democratic takeover of Congress, that number was 30%. President Bush’s job approval rating is a record low 23%; more than half the voters say McCain would continue Bush’s policies.
There is a major enthusiasm gap, with far more of Obama’s supporters enthusiastic about him than McCain’s supporters are about him. Half the voters think the economy is the top issue, and Obama has a nearly two to one over McCain on that issue. Two-thirds of voters want American troops out of Iraq in a year, even though the situation has improved. 51% have a positive view of the Democratic Party; 29% have a positive view of the Democratic Party. It’s not all roses for Obama. McCain has a slight edge amongst independents in this poll — I suspect because this poll has a different definition of partisan ID — and a majority of voters backs McCain’s new plan for offshore oil drilling as a solution to the current oil and gasoline price crises. Ultimately, however, I believe this issue is a problem for McCain.
** MORMON CHURCH WILL CAMPAIGN FOR CALIFORNIA GAY MARRIAGE BAN. The Mormon Church will be campaigning to pass a November initiative to make same sex marriage unconstitutional in California. (h/t NWN poster Dana) The California Supreme Court, dominated by Republicans, recently declared the practice constitutional. I don’t think the Mormon move is a smart one. Church members will be exhorted during church services to participate in the campaign.
John McCain promotes his controversial new energy policy in this web ad.
** INCIDENTALLY … In my view, John McCain’s new move in favor of offshore oil drilling has leeched most of what little suspense remained out of the 2010 California governor’s race.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Las Vegas and Los Angeles. In Vegas, he meets with voters to discuss problems in the energy economy. In LA, he appears at a big fundraiser (discussed in the Monday Morning Quarterback column) for Democratic unity organized in large part by former Clinton supporters. The two-step event ($2300 reception and concert and $28,500 dinner) is at the Los Angeles Music Center and will be attended by various stars.
John McCain is in California, with stops in Santa Barbara, Riverside, and Newport Beach. He has fundraisers in Riverside and Newport Beach. Last night, he had a fundraiser in Santa Barbara. This morning he holds an environmental event at the Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former CIA Director James Woolsey. Santa Barbara, as you may know (and as an unhappy contributor at last night’s McCain fundraiser there pointed out), was in 1969 site of perhaps the most famous oil spill in the history, which helped spark the modern environmental movement.
Schwarzenegger has some conflicting views with McCain on energy, including offshore oil drilling. Woolsey was Bill Clinton’s first CIA director, and later became somewhat confusingly aligned with both neoconservative elements and climate change activists.
** MY LATEST PODCAST. The road ahead.
** OBAMA V. MCCAIN: THE AD WARS ARE ON. What Obama and McCain are doing in their first rounds of general election TV advertising. Along with the where and the why. From my other blog.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. With U.S. cable news chattering away as it does, this sort of respite can be informative. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are rising again, trading in the $137 to $138 per barrel range. The summit of oil producers and consumers in Saudi Arabia on Sunday was a failure.
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“A majority of voters backs McCain’s new plan for offshore oil drilling as a solution to the current oil and gasoline price crises. Ultimately, however, I believe this issue is a problem for McCain.”
This isn’t the proper way to track the issue. You have to ask it like gun control or abortion – it’s that kind of issue.
“Would you ever vote for a candidate based solely on their support/opposition offshore oil drilling?”
The intensity of those opposed will be much higher than those who support. Guns, abortion, immigration, farm subsidies, etc. mean EVERYTHING to some people, but are “just another issue” to others.
THAT’s the problem for McCain — it completely alienates a portion of voters on one side, while just being part of the larger political calculation of voters on the other side.
I’m still puzzled by his political calculation…
I love this.
BB: Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.
lol
Capitol Boy:
I love this.
BB: Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.
Jun 24, 2008 – 4:44 pm
“Running for re-election”
Make it “WINNING re-election.”
Offshore oil drilling sealed not only CA but OR and WA. They are all 100% out of play for McCain.
If McCain had adopted Schwarzenegger’s enviro position, he would have given Obama fits.
But you know what they say, OILS well that ends well!
Uh, thanks.
… I was replying to Ann.
Team McCain has had major hopes for Washington and Oregon. And if not major hopes for California for McCain, perhaps major hopes for California for Meg Whitman in 2010.
>Brasky:
Offshore oil drilling sealed not only CA but OR and WA. They are all 100% out of play for McCain.
I’m sure.
>Capitol Boy:
I love this.
BB: Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.
Jun 24, 2008 – 4:44 pm
The hope of at least some in Team McCain, and the candidate, is that they can turn people with a fast shuffle on offshore oil.
I think it’s a backfire.
>Brasky:
“A majority of voters backs McCain’s new plan for offshore oil drilling as a solution to the current oil and gasoline price crises. Ultimately, however, I believe this issue is a problem for McCain.”
This isn’t the proper way to track the issue. You have to ask it like gun control or abortion – it’s that kind of issue.
Thanks.
>Brasky:
Some light reading on IRS regs and churches: http://tinyurl.com/4kqn9z
Jun 24, 2008 – 3:05 pm
I think voters will fail to grasp the distinction. Something not good for a religion views as somewhat exotic.
>“MORMON CHURCH WILL CAMPAIGN FOR CALIFORNIA GAY MARRIAGE BAN.”
For the purposes of IRS regulations, the advocacy of a ballot measure campaign is considered “lobbying” and not “campaigning”.
Since the wind does not always blow and the sun does not always shine, nuclear should be part of the future mix.
>marcus:
John McCain is the only candidate talking about nuclear power. If you want to stop global warming, you have got to have more nuclear plants. They work everywhere else. They’ll work here. Don’t be scared by green hysteria.
Jun 24, 2008 – 2:19 pm
I don’t believe it’s political.
Someone piggybacked fake names atop my e-mail address — using servers in the Middle East and Russia — to generate hundreds of return mails responding to supposed messages offering free porn DVDs and fake Rolexes.
>Jonas Blane:
Bill, your email was hacked? What is that about?
Jun 24, 2008 – 1:42 pm
Because that doesn’t fit the narrative?
>Jonas Blane:
Why doesn’t McCain tell the oil companies to use the leases they already have?
Jun 24, 2008 – 1:41 pm
Hap, as I may have mentioned about 11 times, offshore oil drilling will have no impact on the current crisis.
None.
Nyet.
Nada.
Zero.
>Hap Hazard:
cynical of McCain. He knows it won’t do anything about this crisis. – Don’t know about McCain’s view, but I think increased oil production and refining by the US would have a salutary effect on the current crisis.
Thanks.
>Sacramento Solon:
Mr. Bradley,
Follow the link to an article about an old friend of yours that appears in today’s Sacramento Bee:
It will do, and let me clear about this, absolutely nothing about the current crisis.
>marcos leon:
It is so cynical of McCain. He knows it won’t do anything about this crisis.
Jun 24, 2008 – 1:00 pm
And then there is the new Bloomberg national poll. See the NWN front page.
>Pat Skipper:
I think this drilling thing is a stone-cold loser. Except for Texas, who would get excited by this idea? There’s no chance of drilling off our coast and I’m betting dollars to donuts that it’ll hurt McCain in Florida.
On a lighter note, the recent polling looks increasingly dark for McCain. Obama now beyond the margin of error in Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. He’s also ahead by a point in INDIANA, a state I mentioned he had a good shot at a few weeks ago. he’s also outside the margin in Iowa and New Hampshire and virtually tied in Georgia.
but they love Johnny Mac in Utah.
Jun 24, 2008 – 12:36 pm
everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Whuh?
i like the music in the gordon smith ad
“Oregon Senator Gordon Smith says he works with Barack Obama on energy and the environment. But he’s a Republican. Running for re-election.”
If I were a politician in Oregon, I’d be paying attention to ANYONE who can pull 75,000 people in a rally in Portland.
Bill Bradley:
You’re trying to catch him?
Webb’s book is outstanding, no question about that.
——
Finished the book. It is outstanding. Learned much about the Scots-Irish and Senator Webb.
Yes, trying to catch Hap in the “once again wrong” standings. Hell, what am I talking about, I must be in top couple already and he’s nowhere close!!!
Team McCain has been saying he has a very good chance in Oregon.
Even after the big rally and primary win.
… Yeah, I was responding to the Brasky post about Oregon.
That’s reassuring.
>Brasky:
i like the music in the gordon smith ad
Jun 24, 2008 – 5:40 pm
I like the Gordon Smith ad…and also what Brasky said…but only at 5:43!
Nice try. I always appreciate having someone put words in my mouth. And adopt a shoot the messenger approach. Plus play the “what about the children” card.
One hard choice is to stop pretending drilling offshore or in ANWR will do anything about the current situation. To complain “everyone is entitled to their own opinion” when the opinion is totally disconnected from reality is mindblowing. And a waste of time.
Another hard choice is to begin being rational about land use. Also to have the state stop raiding public transit funds to balance the budget.
And we need to close the Enron loophole.
>Hap Hazard:
That is your plan, Dana? What hard choices are you suggesting, that we stop using oil? How is that realistic? rationing? Creating a Mad Max / Road Warrior world is not exactly what I would hope to do for posterity, and I know my son would not appreciate it, either.
WOW! Via Mr. Evanier’s blog I’ve learned the Orange County Register has taken a live and let live attitude toward same sex marriage. Amazing!
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/marriage-state-sex-2073700-marriages-people
Dana – What evidence do you have that drilling in ANWR (which of course McCain isn’t even suggesting) or developing oil in North Dakota, and drilling off the OCS won’t have any affect on the “current crisis”? I suppose it is how you define current, and yes I agree that it isn’t going to affect the ELECTION, but I am reasonably sure that if the US decided to expand its energy resource development (oil, coal, etc), that there would be a very real and very noticeable affect on oil market price fluctuations and trends.
In the real world, as opposed to the political world, people buying futures contracts and other commodities products are affected by what can be viewed as trends in the market place, and further, the OPEC folks have been known to meter their output and fix their prices based on events in other industrialized nations.
So this protestation about this won’t affect the current crisis seems to me to be a DODGE and an excuse not to have a reasoned discussion about the future energy plans of the folks on the left, and I think it is because they don’t have one. So there is nothing to discuss, save some unrealistic utopian hokum about how everything will be great if we just stand by and hope for solar and wind to solve our problems. That is what is mind-blowing.
I agree with you about land use and that transit funds should be used for transit. But I was wanting to hear what genuine energy solutions the left has, and I haven’t seen anything, and frankly don’t expect to, because the left has its head up its ass on energy and has for a long time now.
The “everybody is entitled to his opinion” statement was not directed to you, it was merely a response to Bill’s OPINION that oil drilling resumption and development of ANWR, etc., would have nothing, nada, etc etc, ad nauseum to do with the “current crisis”. Everybody is entitled to their opinions, just don’t try to say these are known facts.
I would like to have a debate about the merits (long term, not for this fracking election cycle) of a few options out there, besides merely pretending that the fracking wind can blow us out of our oil economy and the “Enron loophole” is actually anything other than a talking point.
It’s a long while to the election, but from what I see and hear in Olympia and Seattle, and what my son tells me about Oregon, McCain has about as much chance in Washington and Oregon as he has in California at this point.
So the U.S. will soon likely have a new African American President. Exciting times.
What video today?
“Team McCain has been saying he has a very good chance in Oregon. Even after the big rally and primary win.”
These guys are either blowing smoke or smoking blow…
…seriously, how much of these “projections” coming out of the McCain camp are attributable to spin and how much of it is because they actually believe it?
Oregon, California and Washington are off McCain’s electoral map – unless Obama folds all 50 states somehow. That doesn’t mean I don’t think McCain couldn’t win – he could. But not with those three states in the RED column.
Saying anything else makes McCain sound like the endless spin we were hearing out of the Clinton camp (Super Tuesday projections, etc.).
My understanding (which is limited) is the price of oil is largely determined by the spot market, just like the energy market was.
So the development of new oil sources (no matter the size) has about as much impact on current prices as when California had multiple power plants fast-tracked for completion during the height of the energy crisis…
Hap, sorry your demand (hell, near hysterics) for immediate miracle no sacrifice solutions does zero to deal with our circumstances, near term and into the future.
How can we have a reasoned discussion when the Bush folks screwed things up with their secretive energy planning and cozing up to Enron et al? The fact the President only talks about offshore and ANWR is having the opposite effect to what you claim – it is encouraging the speculators to push gas prices higher as Bush sends the signal that real action is not in the cards as long as he is President and we are stuck.
In fact many (not just on the left) are working on various alternative options – hybrids, wind power, mass transit. Meanwhile you want us to chase diminished status quo options to stave off the inevitable.
And I do understand the comments by Bill & others in re nuclear. But even with new better technology I think it is still a hard sell. Does anyone know of a community lobbying to have a nuclear plant in their backyard?
Meanwhile you want us to chase diminished status quo options to stave off the inevitable. – Thanks for your response Dana. No doubt it does seem as if I am proposing that, but in reality I think that pursuit of alternative transit solutions, alternative energy and adult supervised development of some of our natural resources do not have to be, and should not be, mutually exclusive avenues. Thanks again for writing back.
Maybe this should be moved over to today’s thread.
Well, the NIMBY thing is something to be jettisoned given present exigencies.
>Dana:
And I do understand the comments by Bill & others in re nuclear. But even with new better technology I think it is still a hard sell. Does anyone know of a community lobbying to have a nuclear plant in their backyard?
Jun 25, 2008 – 9:15 am
Very exciting.
>Jonas Blane:
What video today?
Jun 25, 2008 – 8:44 am
We’ll see.
>sergei:
So the U.S. will soon likely have a new African American President. Exciting times.
Jun 25, 2008 – 12:09 am
McCain is going to get blown out on the West Coast. This will set up, among other things, the return of the Democrats to the California Governor’s Office in 2010.
Team McCain actually had a shot here. But that’s gone now.
>Brasky:
“Team McCain has been saying he has a very good chance in Oregon. Even after the big rally and primary win.”
These guys are either blowing smoke or smoking blow…
…seriously, how much of these “projections” coming out of the McCain camp are attributable to spin and how much of it is because they actually believe it?
Oregon, California and Washington are off McCain’s electoral map – unless Obama folds all 50 states somehow. That doesn’t mean I don’t think McCain couldn’t win – he could. But not with those three states in the RED column.
Saying anything else makes McCain sound like the endless spin we were hearing out of the Clinton camp (Super Tuesday projections, etc.).
Jun 25, 2008 – 8:54 am
I guess they decided to emphasize their libertarian side, rather than their far right wing side.
>Dana:
WOW! Via Mr. Evanier’s blog I’ve learned the Orange County Register has taken a live and let live attitude toward same sex marriage. Amazing!
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/marriage-state-sex-2073700-marriages-people
Jun 24, 2008 – 7:07 pm
Incidentally, NWN passed 65,000 comments sometime in the past week.