Recall the Soviet Union, whose leaders vowed to “bury” America and truly had the power to do it.
I have something to confess, dear readers. In the 1980s, I went to the Soviet Embassy in Washington to meet there with assembled ranking members of the Communist Party. Each had sworn to the defeat of America and triumph of international Communism. Included in the group were agents of the dread KGB.
Why was I there? To give a briefing on American politics, with a particular emphasis on California, a major area of interest to Soviet intelligence.
Was I a traitor? Was I engaging in what President Bush yesterday described as “appeasement?”
As Borat would put it, “Not so much.” I was there, as an advisor to a U.S. senator, and having been trained in the U.S. military to kill Russians and learn Soviet doctrines, to talk.
A long line of leaders of the Soviet Union vowed to destroy America. And these guys actually did have the power to do it. This was the Cold War. Which at times was extremely hot. Both overtly and covertly.
Did we negotiate with the Soviets on a regular basis? Did we talk with them, even those who clearly had blood on their hands, even American blood? Of course. As a matter, frankly, of routine. Bear in mind that the Soviet Union murdered tens of millions of people, far more than Nazi Germany, indeed, far more than any other world power in the history of this planet.
This did not make Ronald Reagan an appeaser any more than I was an appeaser. Reagan, in fact, engaged in summitry with Soviet leaders to win PR victories. And with constant vigilance, and a policy of aggressive containment, the Cold War was successfully concluded with the defeat of the Soviet Union.
Since then, some of my closest friends have been Russians, now free from the yoke of Communism. Free to pursue the American dream of Armani and champagne.
Anyone who understands history knows these things. I’ve defended Bush from hyperpartisan lefties who insist that he is stupid. He’s hardly that; as best I can make out, he has an IQ of 128. Which is certainly smart enough for big-time politics.
Nevertheless, thanks to Bush’s play, yesterday was, in game parlance, an unforced error for the Republicans.
John McCain, who has spent the bulk of the week showing his independence from a very unpopular president and a declining Republican brand, had just given an excellent speech. Which I wrote about at length yesterday.
Then President Bush said these things before Israel’s parliament, the Knesset: “Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: ‘Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided.’ We have an obligation to call this what it is—the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.”
As NWN readers are well aware, the Bush Administration is in fact negotiating with Iran now. Iran, most unfortunately, proved to have the necessary clout to end recent factional fighting in Iraq that was terribly distracting to our goal of bringing stability to that country more than five years after we defeated Saddam Hussein.
John McCain, who may feel he is in the business of building sand castles, yesterday had to choose between supporting his party’s president — who retains diehard support from the conservative base — or denouncing his comments as the sort of hostile divisiveness he had himself just denounced in his Columbus, Ohio speech. McCain, as I’ve noted repeatedly, has a difficult balancing act to pull off in his run against Barack Obama.
He chose to support Bush. Which is exactly what Obama and the Democrats want.
Former U.S. Navy Secretary-turned-Virginia Senator Jim Webb delivers the Democratic rebuttal to President Bush’s 2007 State of the Union address.
** NEW OIL PRICE RECORD. With President Bush in Saudi Arabia, whose leaders apparently ignored the former Texas oil man’s entreaties, crude oil again broke price records today. Oil hit an all-time intraday trading record of $127.82 per barrel. The price then settled to a new closing record of $126.29 per barrel.
** OBAMA STRIKES BACK. Barack Obama will hit back at George W. Bush and John McCain for calling him an appeaser around 9 AM Pacific, from a town hall in South Dakota. This will be a road-blocked cable news event.
** V.P. Who will be Barack Obama’s running mate? An open question till the Democratic national convention in Denver at the end of August, to be sure. One good bet is the man above.
** CALI SUPREME COURT AFFIRMS GAY MARRIAGE — FAR RIGHT BLAMES … JERRY BROWN. Naturally. Because the former governor-turned-attorney general didn’t make strong enough arguments against gay marriage. Folks, six out of seven members of the court are Republicans. The chief justice, who wrote the majority opinion, was first appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan. Who himself campaigned against an anti-gay rights initiative. But the National Review, which has gotten more and more right wing, blames the once and probably future governor.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Watertown and Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
John McCain is in Louisville, Kentucky, where he will address the National Rifle Association convention.
Hillary Clinton is in Oregon.
Bill Clinton is in Kentucky.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
John McCain senior advisor Steve Schmidt discusses the road ahead.
Steve Schmidt, senior advisor to Senator John McCain, is one of the top political strategists in America. Called “McCain’s message man” by Time magazine, Schmidt managed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s come-from-behind landslide re-election victory in 2006. A protégé of Karl Rove, he ran the Bush/Cheney 2004 campaign war room. Later, he served as counselor to Vice President Dick Cheney, shepherding the nominations of Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Sam Alito through the U.S. Senate and undertaking a mission to Baghdad to straighten out American communications operations in Iraq.
I caught up with Steve — during a brief respite from the road, on which he carefully evaluates every McCain appearance and gives immediate feedback — near his home in the Sierra Nevada foothills. He represents the hardball side of the Bush/Cheney equation, having run the Bush/Cheney war room in ‘04 and been counselor to the VP following that. And he represents the more independent-oriented side of the moderate Republican equation, having run Arnold’s campaign in which a critical piece was Schwarzenegger dramatically distancing himself from … Bush/Cheney.
Schmidt and I discussed branding, positioning, and, er, “contrasts.”
What is the McCain “brand”? Who is this guy as a person? Background, values. Is his persona more important than his politics?
How do you position McCain for the general election? In an environment in which your incumbent president is at near record levels of unpopularity and 80 percent of the voters say the country is on the wrong track, with an economic slowdown and trouble in the Middle East? How do you maintain contact with your ideological base and keep it motivated, while at the same time appealing to independents and moderates turned off by the current White House? How the heck did things go off the tracks in Iraq, following a smashing invasion performance, and how is it going now?
And speaking of “contrast” politics, let’s look at the weaknesses of Barack Obama. How do you get at those?
With regard to President Bush’s “appeasement” comments this morning in Israel, John McCain, unfortunately for him, not that he had much choice, given the state of the conservative base in America, took the bait and defended Bush from the furious counter-attack mounted against him from across the near-majority Democratic Party.
“I think it is an unacceptable position, and shows that Senator Obama does not have the knowledge, the experience, the background to make the kind of judgments that are necessary to preserve this nation’s security.”
Here is the problem with that. Secretary of Defense Bob Gates and Secretary of State Condi Rice have already endorsed such talks. Clearly, with President Bush’s agreement. And, in fact, the US is already engaged in such talks. Iraq does not become the victory that John McCain hopes for by January 2013 without an agreement with Iran regarding a settlement of the security situation. In fact, the end to the latest all-out fighting in Iraq was brokered from Tehran.
John McCain has some big fundamental problems. And until George W. Bush decides to step away from the fray, those problems only get bigger.
You can watch the previous interviews in the series: Steve Westly of the Obama campaign here and Steve Maviglio of the Clinton campaign here.
Incidentally, this will be the last time that I am filmed at the end of a long session after a long drive looking down at a camera into the sun. I am, as several posters have pointed out, a producer and will be functioning as such from now on.
2013. John McCain’s vision of his presidency. Narration again by 24 co-star Powers Boothe.
On a week in which he seeks to demonstrate his independence from President Bush, marked by major environmental statements, John McCain this morning in Columbus, Ohio delivered a speech outlining his vision of America in January 2013 following four years of his presidency. It comes at a crucial time, with the Republican brand sharply diminished, as we see with Tuesday’s third straight loss of a safe Republican congressional seat in special elections this year.
It also, rather cleverly, established a date by which McCain intends to withdraw most US troops from Iraq. Team McCain is perturbed by the “100 years” trope, the notion that McCain intends to fight on in Iraq for another century. Which is not what he actually said. They need another number out there. Now they have one. 2013.
Ironically, given his supposed desire to have McCain succeed him, Bush, speaking in Israel, stepped all over McCain’s message, which received road-blocked cable news coverage this morning. Bush attacked people, such as Barack Obama, who want to talk with rogue nations as “appeasers,” similar to those who unsuccessfully tried to negotiate with Hitler. As NWN readers know, the Bush Administration is itself talking with Iran and other such rogue nations. McCain has to figure out what to do about this, as he continues his balancing act of reaching out to the independents and moderates he needs to beat Obama with the hardcore ideological base he can’t let slip away.
What McCain is doing in this speech is, as my old mentor Silicon Valley marketing guru Regis McKenna used to say, “painting a picture of the future as he would have it.” The Western senator said a lot of things in this speech, including promises to appoint Democrats to his administration, hold weekly press conferences, and engage in British-style “question times” with the Congress.
Let’s look at some of the key issues McCain addressed:
By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom. The Iraq War has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced. Civil war has been prevented; militias disbanded; the Iraqi Security Force is professional and competent; al Qaeda in Iraq has been defeated; and the Government of Iraq is capable of imposing its authority in every province of Iraq and defending the integrity of its borders. The United States maintains a military presence there, but a much smaller one, and it does not play a direct combat role.
There we have it. McCain intends to withdraw most US forces from Iraq by January 2013. Remaining forces are out of the business of direct combat. Victory is defined as a less bad situation. But not anywhere near the pipe dreams of the war’s original architects.
The threat from a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan has been greatly reduced but not eliminated. U.S. and NATO forces remain there to help finish the job, and continue operations against the remnants of al Qaeda.
This seems highly achievable. Especially with US forces redeployed from Iraq.
The Government of Pakistan has cooperated with the U.S. in successfully adapting the counterinsurgency tactics that worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan to its lawless tribal areas where al Qaeda fighters are based.
This is going to be tough. The new Pakistani government is going in the opposite direction. One of the things missing from discussion here, as we’ve been occupied with more trivial campaign pursuits. And the old Pakistani government also went in the opposite direction. It’s not unlikely that if we want the job done, we will have to do it ourselves.
The United States has experienced several years of robust economic growth, and Americans again have confidence in their economic future. A reduction in the corporate tax rate from the second highest in the world to one on par with our trading partners; the low rate on capital gains; allowing business to deduct in a single year investments in equipment and technology, while eliminating tax loopholes and ending corporate welfare, have spurred innovation and productivity, and encouraged companies to keep their operations and jobs in the United States. The Alternate Minimum Tax is being phased out, with relief provided first to middle income families. Doubling the size of the child exemption has put more disposable income in the hands of taxpayers, further stimulating growth.
McCain here is adopting his party’s conventional no tax/low tax approach to stimulating the economy. With the signal difference of promising to go after tax loopholes and corporate welfare. Which could make up for a possible loss of revenue from the rest of his program. Without heavy deficit spending, the Republicans would not be financing their tax policies today.
New free trade agreements have been ratified and led to substantial increases in both exports and imports. The resulting growth in prosperity in countries from South America to Asia to Africa has greatly strengthened America’s security and the global progress of our political ideals. U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports have been eliminated and unneeded farm subsidies are being phased out. The world food crisis has ended, inflation is low, and the quality of life not only in our country, but in some of the most impoverished countries around the world is much improved.
This is the dream of free trade. Free trade is generally a very good thing. When the rules are worked out properly.
Americans, who through no fault of their own, lost jobs in the global economy they once believed were theirs for life, are assisted by reformed unemployment insurance and worker retraining programs. Older workers who accept lower paying jobs while they acquire new skills are provided assistance to make up a good part of the income they have lost. Community colleges and technical schools all over the country have developed worker retraining programs suited to the specific economic opportunities available in their communities and are helping millions of workers who have lost a job that won’t come back find a new one that won’t go away.
The flip side of the dream of free trade is the nightmare of economic dislocation, as domestic industries try and fail to compete with ultra-low cost labor forces. McCain is proposing a compensatory industrial policy here. This will cost a lot of money.
The United States is well on the way to independence from foreign sources of oil; progress that has not only begun to alleviate the environmental threat posed from climate change, but has greatly improved our security as well. A cap and trade system has been implemented, spurring great innovation in the development of green technologies and alternative energy sources. Clean coal technology has advanced considerably with federal assistance. Construction has begun on twenty new nuclear reactors thanks to improved incentives and a streamlined regulatory process.
Most of this drives hardline conservatives nuts. And how a cap and trade system is set up makes all the difference with regard to its effectiveness. McCain is going to be hammered by Obama for not backing major green tech development programs.
For too long, now, Washington has been consumed by a hyperpartisanship that treats every serious challenge facing us as an opportunity to trade insults; disparage each other’s motives; and fight about the next election.
“Hyperpartisan,” as longtime NWN readers know, is one of my favorite words and least favorite phenomena.
There are serious issues at stake in this election, and serious differences between the candidates. And we will argue about them, as we should. But it should remain an argument among friends; each of us struggling to hear our conscience, and heed its demands; each of us, despite our differences, united in our great cause, and respectful of the goodness in each other. That is how most Americans treat each other. And it is how they want the people they elect to office to treat each other.
Let’s hope we get this type of campaign, from both sides.
** WEBB G.I. BILL BEATS MCCAIN G.I. BILL. Former Navy Secretary-turned-Virginia Senator Jim Webb is only a decade younger than Arizona Senator-turned-Republican presidential nominee John McCain, and they are both two of the most famous heroes of the Vietnam War, but he seems more in touch with the needs of current Iraq/Afghanistan veterans. The McCain version of the new GI bill was killed today in the Senate in favor of the Webb version.
The truth is that survivors of wounds on today’s battlefield are frequently far more damaged than those of the older era. Thanks to the greater interventionist capability of modern medicine.
** PRO-CLINTON/ANTI-OBAMA 527 COMMITTEE TAKES LAST SHOT NEXT WEEK. NWN has learned that the American Leadership Project, the pro-Clinton/anti-Obama 527 independent committee, will take a lost shot at this primary race next week in Oregon. With all-positive ads that have the, er, effect of promoting Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.
** CLINTON LOYALIST BEGALA DEFENDS OBAMA AGAINST BUSH. I’ve regularly noted that President Bush is not only not stupid as hyperpartisan lefties frequently claim, he is actually, with his 128 IQ, quite intelligent. But given how his administration has repeatedly engaged in talks with rogue nations and terrorists — as NWN readers are very well aware — his attack today on Barack Obama in Israel’s Knesset (the national parliament) was a particular low point. Here Clinton diehard Paul Begala, a neo-Likudnik, takes on the task of defending Obama against Bush.
Chicago is today saying, “Thank you, Mr. President. For helping us unify the Democratic Party. And for stepping all over John McCain’s message of independence from you this morning.”
** BERMAN AND WAXMAN ENDORSE OBAMA. LA Congressmen Howard Berman and Henry Waxman, two of Israel’s staunchest supporters, have just endorsed Barack Obama.
Berman is chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Waxman is chairman of the House Oversight Committee. For many years, the two ran a legendary Jewish political machine based on the West Side and San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles. Their old coalition partner, former Congressman Mel Levine, came out for Obama in January.
** CALIFORNIA SUPREME COURT THROWS OUT GAY MARRIAGE BAN. A deeply divided California Supreme Court voted 4 to 3 this morning to toss out the state’s voter-approved ban on gay marriage. Six of the court’s seven members are Republicans. The majority opinion was written by Chief Justice Ron George, appointed by Republican Governor Pete Wilson. George was first appointed to the municipal court by Ronald Reagan.
Said Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger: “I respect the Court’s decision and as Governor, I will uphold its ruling. Also, as I have said in the past, I will not support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn this state Supreme Court ruling.”
** BUSH STEPS ON MCCAIN’S INDEPENDENT MESSAGE. Speaking to the Knesset today, President Bush stepped all over John McCain’s big speech this morning — which I’m writing about — saying that anyone who wants to talk with bad countries and groups is an “appeaser,” and don’t we know that didn’t work with Hitler? An obvious attack on Barack Obama. Bush, whose credibility is especially low in America, is now being jumped on by the entire Democratic Party. More to follow in a column.
** STEELWORKERS BACK OBAMA. Following John Edwards’ lead, the United Steelworkers this morning endorsed Barack Obama.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago.
John McCain is in Columbus, Ohio for a major positioning speech.
Hillary Clinton is in South Dakota.
Bill Clinton is in Kentucky.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Fresh from a mixed response to the annual May revision of his proposed California budget, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks to a major government technology conference at the state convention center this morning at 10:45 AM.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
John Edwards dropping out of the presidential race. Today he endorsed Barack Obama.
A very busy afternoon. I’d just been running around getting up to speed on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s new California budget proposal, then learned that John Edwards was joining Barack Obama in Michigan (then had to do the radio show). Obviously, I’ll have a lot more to say later about both things, having spent the afternoon focusing on and learning about these disparate stories.
First, before getting to Edwards and Obama, a brief opening take on the Arnold budget. Big takeaways … It would take away more money from health care, the part of the budget getting the biggest hit. Ironic, given that Schwarzenegger spent most of last year working to create a universal health care system in California. And it would stave off even further big cuts by securitizing an underperforming asset, the California State Lottery.
Republicans seem to like the lottery idea, which requires a November public vote, but don’t like the safety valve Schwarzenegger put forward in case the vote fails in the form of a temporary sales tax hike.
Democrats don’t like the cuts, and Senate leader Don Perata denounced the lottery proposal in no uncertain terms. Although other Democrats do like the lottery proposal.
In other words, the usual back and forth between a party dominated by the state’s anti-government faction and a party dominated by the state’s ultra-government faction is underway in earnest. After months of not much happening. I’ll have more on all this as we go forward, starting tomorrow.
Now to Edwards and Obama. This is a big move, further coalescing the Democratic Party around Obama’s impending nomination.
Starting out this very long presidential race, I thought John Edwards was the most impressive of the candidates. As a center-left Southern white guy, he was well positioned to win a general election. Edwards has a tremendous skill set, is very smart, and also has a sense of humor.
In my view, Edwards usually won the debates. But he was increasingly crowded out by the presence of two superstars in the race, in the form of Clinton and Obama, and had to move further left to retain relevance. Which had the effect of making him less electable should he win the nomination.
There’s much more to say about Edwards, as well, and I’ll be saying it, but I think one thing that is certain is that we will see that he is a powerful campaigner on Obama’s behalf. And he’s now sending a very strong signal that it is time to end this sooner than later so that Obama and the Democrats can get on with the task of running against John McCain.
Johnny Winter plays “Mississippi Blues.” A third straight special election loss for Republicans.
We learned two things yesterday that, actually, we already knew. Barack Obama has a problem with rural, downscale whites. And the Republican Party brand is in deep trouble.
I was just on a conference call with Oklahoma Congressman Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). He was there to discuss the third stunning special election loss in a row of a safe Republican congressional seat. This latest came in a mostly white Deep South district in Mississippi. The Republican incumbent had been appointed to the U.S. Senate.
But although Cole and the Republicans tried their level best to tie the Democratic candidate to Barack Obama, Jeremiah Wright, and Nancy Pelosi, it didn’t work. The Democrat won going away, 54% to 46%. This major Republican defeat follows on the heels of a loss in a Louisiana special election for Congress, which in turn followed the loss of former House Speaker Denny Hastert’s seat in Illinois. (There Obama pitched in heavily on the Democrat’s side, lending his organization and cutting an effective TV spot.)
Just now, Cole, a political consultant and director of the Oklahoma Republican Party before becoming a politician himself, made quite a declaration.
“It’s evident to me,” said Cole, “that a large segment of the American people doesn’t have confidence in the Republican Party.”
What antidote to this problem does he see? John McCain. “McCain,” he said, “is a great asset for us. He runs much ahead of the Republican brand.”
Cole said that he thinks that the Democrats are advantaged in the current environment because George W. Bush is president. “We’re in a luxury period for them (the Democrats) where a lot of Americans think the Republican Party is running things.” He noted that Democrats now have majorities in both the House and the Senate. Of course, the Democrats are stymied by the White House.
He sees tremendous advantages to the long-running Democratic presidential nomination fight. “Democrats,” he noted, “have organizationally expanded through the primaries. They’ve dominated the media for the last few months.”
Of course, much of the media coverage has been pretty negative.
While Cole said there really isn’t much difference on policy between Obama and Hillary Clinton, he said he thinks that brandishing Obama as a boogie man for voters in more conservative districts “is still a useful tool. Obama is very liberal and very inexperienced.”
But apparently, according to Cole, no more liberal than Clinton. And it’s a tactic that has notably failed three times in a row in previously safe Republican districts.
How much of an albatross is President Bush?
“President Bush,” Cole said, “is a lot like Harry Truman in that he’ll look good in the history books. This really isn’t about him. It’s about where America is going to go in 2009.”
Cole rejected suggestions from some Republicans for a housecleaning of the NRCC operation.
“It’s a great mistake to think this is a matter of tweaking a few things here and there,” said Cole, “changing the staff. This is not a staff failure or even an execution failure. We’ve got a loss of confidence from the American people and a message problem.”
Cole said he thinks things will get better when Obama is up against McCain, and their ideas are compared. But President Bush will still be the president, and there is not much daylight between the Republican brand and the Bush brand.
Meanwhile, there are some things Obama can do to deal with the problem exposed again by Clinton’s huge win yesterday in West Virginia. The former first lady won the Mountaineer State, where former President Bill Clinton is very popular, 67% to 26%, with another 7% somewhat surprisingly going to the long withdrawn John Edwards.
Hillary Clinton declares victory in the West Virginia primary.
** JOHN EDWARDS ENDORSES OBAMA THIS AFTERNOON. John Edwards is endorsing Barack Obama in a Grand Rapids, Michigan event at 3:15 PM Pacific.
** SAVE THE POLAR BEAR. The US Dept. of the Interior has designated the polar bear as a threatened species. The polar bear’s Arctic habitat is endangered by the rapid melting of the ice cap, something which most experts blame on the greenhouse effect. You’ll recall NWN running video of the emerging Northwest Passage. This is a pretty big deal.
** MAJOR FEMINIST GROUP BACKS OBAMA. Breaking ranks, the National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL) endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton.
** FORMAT. As you’ve been noticing, the format of NWN is changing. The Non-Random Notes format — which amounted to something of a daily newspaper format, with items added on throughout the day — has changed. Instead, items of more significance get their own individual posts, as articles and columns. Small items will be added on here throughout the day as “Quick Hits.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Sterling Heights, Warren, and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
John McCain is in Ohio.
Hillary Clinton is in Washington, D.C. for meetings with her financial backers.
Bill Clinton is in Montana and South Dakota.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS AFTERNOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger unveils the annual May revision of the California budget.
** THE NWN TECH TRANSITION. After more than two weeks, the transistion of New West Notes from one software platform to another is complete. While all the glitches have still not been ironed out, most have.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Looking into the sun after a long session, I interview a Clinton strategist about Hillary’s declining prospects.
In the developmental stage of this new video show, I interview a Clinton for President campaign insider, Steve Maviglio, outside California’s state Capitol. Previously, I interviewed Obama insider Steve Westly, at the venture capital center of American high tech entrepreneurship, Sand Hill Road in Silicon Valley. Most recently, McCain insider Steve Schmidt, near his home in the Sierra Nevada foothills.
Hillary Clinton will, of course, win by a big margin today in West Virginia, one of the oldest and whites states in America, which is also the state with the lowest proportion of college graduates and lowest median family income in America. Which is to say, the best primary in America for Hillary Clinton.
Not that it will make a bit of difference in the Democratic “race,” which Barack Obama now leads nationally with a double digit margin in all major polls. Including the new ABC/Washington Post poll; recall how Obama was shellacked by the ABC hosts in the final Democratic debate. Obama leads McCain by seven points now, with Clinton up by three. Obama has won virtually all the Democratic superdelegates of late — the latest today, former Colorado Governor and Bill Clinton-appointed Democratic National Chairman Roy Romer, whose son was once one of my volunteers — that Clinton, who is $25 million in debt, is counting on to rescue her candidacy in the past two weeks, and given present trends will lock up the Democratic nomination in three weeks.
That said …
Steve Maviglio is a top Democratic strategist backing Hillary Clinton. He’s the spokesman for Clinton’s national campaign co-chairman, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez. He and Nuñez are lobbying the remaining uncommitted Democratic superdelegates, whose favor Clinton must win if she is to succeed in her longshot bid to overtake presidential frontrunner Barack Obama. They have also been integral in helping develop Clinton’s strong appeal to Latino voters.
Maviglio served as the director of the Congressional Democratic Caucus and as press secretary to former California Governor Gray Davis. He was an elected member of the New Hampshire state legislature.
You can watch the previous interview in the series, with Steve Westly of the Obama campaign, here. The next interview, with McCain insider Steve Schmidt, is forthcoming shortly.
Hillary Clinton, in her latest valedictory, continues on for now.
** ANOTHER SPECIAL ELECTION CONGRESSIONAL LOSS FOR THE REPUBLICANS.In Mississippi! The Republicans attempted to sink the Democrat by tying him to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presidential frontrunner Barack Obama. As in the other two special congressional election cases this year, the attempt failed.
** RECORD OIL PRICE. Crude oil hit a new record high price of $126.98 per barrel today.
** RAUSCHENBERG DIES. One of my favorite artists died today, Robert Rauschenberg. My office has been nicknamed the Rauschenberg Room, after the fashion of the Los Angeles Times’s late, and obviously vastly larger, Picasso Room. Much more about this later.
** CALIFORNIA MAKES HISTORY. AGAIN. WITH FIRST BLACK FEMALE ASSEMBLY SPEAKER. LA Asssemblywoman Karen Bass today became the first ever African-American woman to serve as speaker of a state assembly in America. Bass replaces Fabian Nunez of LA, now assembly speaker emeritus.
Alberto Torrico of the east side of the San Francisco Bay is the new Assembly majority leader.
Bass reflects a changing of the guard in California politics, for she — like the next leader of the California Senate, Sacramento’s Darrell Steinberg — is a key backer of Barack Obama. The outgoing Democratic legislative leaders, Speaker Nunez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, who gives up his office this fall, are Clinton backers.
** CARVILLE ACKNOWLEDGES THE OBVIOUS. The Clintons’ longtime junkyard dog, James Carville, yesterday acknowledged that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president. “When it happens, I will send him a check,” said the veteran Democratic consultant, who bombed out in Gary Hart’s presidential campaign (I’m one of the few who remembers he was ever there) but emerged, with a vengeance, in Bill Clinton’s very screwy 1992 campaign.
More on that oddity of history as we move forward.
And I’m sure Obama really gives a frak about getting a check from Carville … Obama, the new leader of the national Democratic Party, describes Carville’s antics as uninformed “performance art.”
** FORMAT. As you’ve been noticing, the format of NWN is changing. The Non-Random Notes format — which amounted to something of a daily newspaper format, with items added on throughout the day — has changed. Instead, items of more significance get their own individual posts, as articles and columns. Very small items will be added on here throughout the day as “Quick Hits.”
** NO GAME DAY. There will be no Game Day coverage of the West Virginia primary. As I’ve already noted, Hillary Clinton will win very big in this contest marked by few delegates, one of the oldest and whitest electorates in the country, and the primary electorate with the lowest proportion of college graduates lowest median family income in America. Nothing that happens in West Virginia affects the Democratic nomination.
Next week, however, with the Oregon and Kentucky primaries, there will be a Game Day package. That’s the day on which, as I’ve forecast, Barack Obama locks up his win in delegates earned in state primary and caucus contests.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Washington, D.C. and Cape Girardeau, Missouri.
John McCain is in North Bend, Washington.
Hillary Clinton is in Washington, D.C. and Charleston, West Virginia, the latter for her West Virginia primary victory speech.
Bill Clinton is in Oregon and Montana.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger discusses his views on California’s energy future in a Newport Beach summit hosted by the University of California at Irvine, the Milken Institute and the (moderate Republican) New Majority.
This is Schwarzenegger’s last webcast event prior to tomorrow’s May revision of the troubled California budget. I predict the deficit number will be lower than widely feared.
But still, let’s say, not good.
** THE NWN TECH TRANSITION. After more than two weeks, the transistion of New West Notes from one software platform to another is complete. While all the glitches have still not been ironed out, most have.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
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