Hillary Clinton savors her win in the Pennsylvania primary.
** PETRAEUS TO CENTCOM. MORE AFGHAN FOCUS? General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, has a new job starting this summer. He’ll replace the departed Admiral William Fallon — who left after publicly criticizing Bush Administration rhetoric on Iran — as commander-in-chief of US Central Command. The purview of which includes the difficult war in Iraq and the lagging war in Afghanistan. Instapundit, rather cryptically, describes this as probably good.
What does it mean? Not that it’s being discussed at all in the constant chatter of the presidential race.
Petraeus is one of the few flag rank US officers to emerge from Iraq with an enhanced reputation. This is because the surge strategy has been relatively successful, at least at stabilizing Iraq. Although Petraeus delivered a sobering report to Congress, describing the situation in Iraq as “fragile and reversible.” As rocket fire struck the heavily guarded Green Zone and Iran brokered an uneasy peace between battling Shiite factions in southern Iraq.
I think it means Afghanistan will no longer be the forgotten war. The Afghan War of 2001, in the wake of 9/11, was a low-cost triumph of American arms. But Osama bin Laden was allowed to escape, along with other Al Qaeda and Taliban cadre, taking up positions in remote portions of Pakistan.
Al Qaeda Prime, as distinguished from affiliates and, if you will, franchisees, are able to issue propaganda manifestos and launch strategic attacks. The Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan, where US and NATO forces are low on manpower and maneuverable firepower. The Taliban have not turned the tide, but the signs are very troubling. Petraeus gets to turn his skilled attentions to these fundamental problems. While hoping that his subordinate, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, can keep things together in Iraq, where he will take over as US commander.
** NEVADA: JOHN MCCAIN NOW LEADS OBAMA AND CLINTON. Nevada is a key swing state in presidential politics, one of the reasons the Democrats selected it for the third contest of the primary season. Way back on January 19th. A month ago, Barack Obama led John McCain there. Now he trails McCain, in the latest Rasmussen robopoll. Though he runs significantly better against McCain than does Hillary Clinton, narrow winner of the Nevada Democratic caucuses.
It’s McCain 48%, Obama 43%. And McCain 49%, Clinton 38%.
If you’re wondering about the impact of the ongoing Democratic foodfight, here it is in this state party strategists have been plotting to pick off in the general election.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters in the state, up from 49% a month ago. Both Democrats are viewed less favorably than they were a month ago. Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters, down from 53% in March. Clinton’s latest numbers are 42% favorable, down from 49% a month ago.
** TOM HAYDEN OUTS HILLARY CLINTON’S RADICAL BACKGROUND. Famed ’60s radical-turned-California state senator Tom Hayden — among many other things, he was president of Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) before future Weather Underground wacko Bernardine Dohrn (aka Mrs. Bill Ayers) — details Hillary’s Clinton’s personal background in radical politics. The ex-Chicago Seven defendant knows his radical politics.
To take just one example, the imagined association between Barack Obama and Bill Ayers will suffice. Hillary is blind to her own roots in the Sixties. In one college speech she spoke of ecstatic transcendence; in another, she said, “our social indictment has broadened. Where once we exposed the quality of life in the world of the South and the ghettos, now we condemn the quality of work in factories and corporations. Where once we assaulted the exploitation of man, now we decry the destruction of nature as well. How much long can we let corporations run us?” She was in Chicago for three nights during the 1968 street confrontations. She chaired the 1970 Yale law school meeting where students voted to join a national student strike again an “unconscionable expansion of a war that should never have been waged.” She was involved in the New Haven defense of Bobby Seale during his murder trial in 1970, as the lead scheduler of student monitors. She surely agreed with Yale president Kingman Brewster that a black revolutionary couldn’t get a fair trial in America. She wrote that abused children were citizens with the same rights as their parents. [75] Most significantly in terms of her recent attacks on Barack, after Yale law school, Hillary went to work for the left-wing Bay Area law firm of Truehaft, Walker and Burnstein, which specialized in Black Panthers and West Coast labor leaders prosecuted for being communists. Two of the firm’s partners, according to Treuhaft, were communists and the two others “tolerated communists”. Then she went on to Washington to help impeach Richard Nixon, whose career was built on smearing and destroying the careers of people through vague insinuations about their backgrounds and associates. [all citations from Carl Bernstein's sympathetic biography, A Woman in Charge, 2007, pp. 67,69,70,75, 83]
All these were honorable words and associations in my mind, but doesn’t she see how the Hillary of today would accuse the Hillary of the Sixties of associating with black revolutionaries who fought gun battles with police officers, and defending pro-communist lawyers who backed communists? Doesn’t the Rev. Jeremiah Wright whom Hillary attacks today represent the very essence of the black radicals Hillary was associating with in those days? And isn’t the Hillary of today becoming the same kind of guilt-by-association insinuator as the Richard Nixon she worked to impeach?
** THE CURRENT PENNSYLVANIA MARGIN: NINE POINTS. So what was Hillary Clinton’s margin over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania?
The networks reported 10 points, then went away. I noted early this morning that the margin was down to 8 points. Now, with some votes still outstanding, according to the official state tally, it’s 9 points. Clinton 54.6% to Obama 45.4%.
The expected high single digits.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in New Albany, Indiana, Washington, DC, and Chicago.
Hillary Clinton is in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in Hillsborough, Elon, Asheboro, Thomasville, and Statesville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Inez, Kentucky.
NBC political director Chuck Todd says it is virtually impossible
for Barack Obama to be overtaken.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: SCHWARZENEGGER’S EARTH DAY. While we were consumed with Game Day Pennsylvania yesterday, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger celebrated Earth Day.
He designated 40,000 acres of the Irvine Ranch in Orange County as California’s first “natural landmark.” Then he venteured north to the Central Valley city of Modesto, where participated in the launch of what’s slated to be the largest solar thermal system in the country, at the Frito-Lay manufacturing plant.
Schwarzenegger is off the road today, holding private meetings in and around the Capitol in advance of the annual May budget revise.
** BROWN GOES AFTER HIDDEN PROVISION IN PROPOSED U.S. FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown went after part of the Bush Administration’s proposed fuel economy standards yesterday. Why?
Buried inside the 417-page proposal is a section that would prevent states, such as California, from regulating tailpipe fuel economy standards.
California Attorney General Jerry Brown said the provisions were a “covert assault” on his state’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He vowed to “fight it every step of the way and we will sue them if necessary.”
Brown said the “pre-emption” language in the plan ignored rulings by the Supreme Court and two federal district courts that said the federal gas mileage standards were separate from state greenhouse gas regulations.
** AN “AMERICAN INDEPENDENT” — SAN FRANCISCO’S FUTURE FIRST LADY. We should probably add about two percent to the numbers of independent voters in California. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s fiancee, actress Jennifer Siebel, is registered American Independent. Siebel, a former Republican, registered AI because she thought it meant, you know, independent. She didn’t know that the old right-wing party is actually one of the state’s minor parties, albeit its largest. This is probably a common mistake among the politically unwary.
Keeping this in mind, the independent share of the California electorate would move to 22%. With 43.5% Democratic and 33% Republican.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading in the $118 to $119 per barrel range.
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If she can’t beat Obama, I don’t see why Clinton is still running.
I’m not going to watch Hillary’s video. I’m tired of her.
That’s very funny about Jennifer Seibel registering “American Independent.”
Obama was 25 points behind, loses by 9 in Clinton’s best state. So what?
Gavin Newsom’s wife, I love it! lol
It’s amusing. But I think a common mistake.
Not much, actually.
>Capitol Boy :
Obama was 25 points behind, loses by 9 in Clinton’s best state. So what?
Apr 23, 2008 09:57 AM
I think a certain campaign fatigue is setting in.
>Jonas Blane :
I’m not going to watch Hillary’s video. I’m tired of her.
Apr 23, 2008 09:33 AM
She’s hoping for an anvil to fall on the guy’s head.
>Jonas Blane :
If she can’t beat Obama, I don’t see why Clinton is still running.
Apr 23, 2008 09:31 AM
“She’s hoping for an anvil to fall on the guy’s head.”
“fall” or “push”?
lol
I keep hearing it’s about to happen. But it never actually does.
>Brasky :
“She’s hoping for an anvil to fall on the guy’s head.”
“fall” or “push”?
Apr 23, 2008 10:28 AM
“I keep hearing it’s about to happen. But it never actually does.”
If the Coyote didn’t believe he could catch the Roadrunner, I guess there wouldn’t be a Saturday morning.
That’s about as Zen as I get.
I know that Obama clings to a seemingly unsurmountable lead, but that he keeps losing is beginning to make me wonder if he is a winner after all. I think most folks equate these things with football games, or, the “thrill of victory, and the agony of defeat” and when it doesn’t come, it starts boding ill for the democrats. At some point, the continued urging of Howard Dean and Pelosi, etc. for this to be “over” also tends to make people wonder, “why”? If Obama doesn’t do something dramatic at the next turn, it would seem that people will start wanting to take the fight to a decision, not a technical knockout, which is all he seems to be able to do. He makes me worry
CNN this morning seemed to be pushing the Clinton talking point that this outcome changed the race, repeatedly posing the rhetorical question on that annoying ticker-banner which is de rigeur these days.
Those guys will say anything to keep the soccer game going, won’t they? Isn’t it about time for some celebrity to get in trouble or forget her undies?
Good for Tom Hayden exposing Hillary’s hypocrisy over her radical political past.
Obama is acquainted with the sort of lunatic Hillary actually worked with!
Obama’s won twice as many states as Clinton. Why don’t you worry about her for a change?
Hap Hazard :
I know that Obama clings to a seemingly unsurmountable lead, but that he keeps losing is beginning to make me wonder if he is a winner after all.
Hap – Old white dems like Hillary, and (as Bill points out), there ain’t anyplace that’s older and whiter than Pennsylvania.
I think most people buy the hype about the “exciting” dem primary and don’t really think in terms of Obama “failing to close the deal”. That’s the way (some) politicos think.
Wilbur I agree that a lot of this is media driven because it keeps people watching the sporting event…
But, regardless and irregardless…
We have been seeing the “float like a butterfly,” but it is getting dangerously close for it to be time for the “sting like a bee” Hopefully he can do that, and then the CNN, Fox, MSNBC chatterboxes won’t be able to control that message any more than they have been able to control many others of late
Capitol Boy :
Obama’s won twice as many states as Clinton. Why don’t you worry about her for a change? — Is this also something you don’t feel we, or maybe I, has a right to engage in a discussion about without also having to pay your trademark hyperpartisan sniping consequences? Just so you can might lose some of your angst and anger, I will tell you that I DO worry about Hillary, but my worry there is that she and her husband will continue to put Obama on the ropes and deny him the knockout punch, and that this will continue all the way to Denver, and then we will have the ensuing riots and disarray, caused by your fellow travelers. I worry about what that does to the general election scene…
“TOM HAYDEN OUTS HILLARY CLINTON’S RADICAL BACKGROUND.”
Fully Vetted…
Good Indiana preview here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080423/pl_politico/9817
Hap, short of Obama self-immolation, there’s only one path open to Clinton for the nomination: superdelegate nullification. And how do you think that would play out with all the new voters, young voters, highly educated voters and African-American voters who make up the Obama base? How would African-Americans, having been loyal Democrats for forty years, respond to the taking of the nomination away from one of their own?
The Clintons seem bent on destroying the Party to save it.
I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I remember some years back with local talk radio dork Larry Elder got outed on his program as a member of the American Independent Party.
Not as politically astute as he likes to imagine himself, Elder had sold himself for years as an “independent” as cover for his (dare I say) “no spin” Republican views. A caller was questioning his independent credentials, and Elder allowed that he had registered American Independent.
It was later made clear to him that there was a difference between AIP and Independent.
Embarrassed, he quickly announced he had changed his party affiliation to the GOP.
Clinton herself has and had real strengths as a candidate.
However, her campaign was one of the worst conceptualized ever. All that inevitability talk was crap. She needed to, from the very beginning, make clear that this was a fresh start for her with the American people, that the past was past, and that she was a changed person offering a compelling vision and capable leadership for the future. Instead, they took the nomination for granted, a stunning display of arrogance and a shocking misstep. She needed to do a “listening tour” ala her first NY senate campaign and instead we got “listen to me.”
Now they want to erase the past eight months because, lo and behold, the candidate who has inspired millions and has, for all intents and purposes, won the race is…OMG…imperfect!
Thanks.
>Chris M :
Good Indiana preview here:
[news.yahoo.com/s/politico/200804...]
Apr 23, 2008 12:24 PM
Let’s see.
Obama is a bad guy because he’s knows some former wacko radicals.
Hillary is a good gal because she worked with wacko radicals.
Okay then.
>Brasky :
“TOM HAYDEN OUTS HILLARY CLINTON’S RADICAL BACKGROUND.”
Fully Vetted…
Apr 23, 2008 12:14 PM
If someone from either side of the aisle was willing to say out loud that sort of truth it would be newsworthy…
>Bill Bradley :
We can discuss that we haven’t done anything and are paying through the nose.
Actually, I’ve noticed that Cap likes Arnold Schwarzenegger. Pretty tough to be a pro-Arnold hyperpartisan.
>Hap Hazard :
Capitol Boy :
Obama’s won twice as many states as Clinton. Why don’t you worry about her for a change? — Is this also something you don’t feel we, or maybe I, has a right to engage in a discussion about without also having to pay your trademark hyperpartisan sniping consequences?
Actually, once Obama emerged in Iowa and further broke through in South Carolina, this race has been playing out in a fairly inexorable demographic fashion.
>Hap Hazard :
Wilbur I agree that a lot of this is media driven because it keeps people watching the sporting event…
But, regardless and irregardless…
We have been seeing the “float like a butterfly,” but it is getting dangerously close for it to be time for the “sting like a bee” Hopefully he can do that, and then the CNN, Fox, MSNBC chatterboxes won’t be able to control that message any more than they have been able to control many others of late
Apr 23, 2008 11:46 AM
Whatever his faults, Mayor AV at least has a pulse–unlike his lackluster predecessor. Or the rest of the useless politicos that L.A. has far too many of.
>Bill Bradley :
He has been a bit peripatetic.
I’m not sure how excited people are anymore.
>Brasky :
Hap – Old white dems like Hillary, and (as Bill points out), there ain’t anyplace that’s older and whiter than Pennsylvania.
I think most people buy the hype about the “exciting” dem primary and don’t really think in terms of Obama “failing to close the deal”. That’s the way (some) politicos think.
Apr 23, 2008 11:42 AM
Obama caught a huge break when they threw out Michigan and Florida. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest Clinton would have won both handily, even if Obama had campaigned full out. I doubt Obama’s inexorability would have held up under that pressure. I think his fund raising would have suffered, and hers would have been bolstered.
Now, Obama has more delegates than Hillary, but not enough to get the nomination, and she’s gathering steam.
Appears to me that this will now go the distance until the August convention.
Think you’re sick of it now? August is four months away.
How many ballots? Who brokers the deal? Who switches sides?
Because, to my mind, nobody’s getting out. Nor should they.
You may recall after the Vegas debate late last year, run by CNN, I talked about their obvious pro-Clinton behavior.
>Wilbur :
CNN this morning seemed to be pushing the Clinton talking point that this outcome changed the race, repeatedly posing the rhetorical question on that annoying ticker-banner which is de rigeur these days.
Those guys will say anything to keep the soccer game going, won’t they? Isn’t it about time for some celebrity to get in trouble or forget her undies?
Apr 23, 2008 11:26 AM
Yes, it’s almost 1984 redux, with the constituencies of Mondale (Clinton) versus those of both Hart and Jackson (Obama).
>Bill Bradley :
Actually, once Obama emerged in Iowa and further broke through in South Carolina, this race has been playing out in a fairly inexorable demographic fashion.
In what way does he keep losing?
>Hap Hazard :
I know that Obama clings to a seemingly unsurmountable lead, but that he keeps losing is beginning to make me wonder if he is a winner after all.
Seems to me that Murphy was billed as peripatetic in our movie. That was the joke, BB.
That’s pretty good.
>Brasky :
“I keep hearing it’s about to happen. But it never actually does.”
If the Coyote didn’t believe he could catch the Roadrunner, I guess there wouldn’t be a Saturday morning.
That’s about as Zen as I get.
Apr 23, 2008 11:14 AM
Ah. Well, I can’t remember what I wrote a week ago …
>Pat Skipper :
Seems to me that Murphy was billed as peripatetic in our movie. That was the joke, BB.
Apr 23, 2008 01:07 PM
Yes and no.
If Michigan and Florida hadn’t jumped the queue, she would have done worse. She did well, unopposed, because she was the name brand — with a huge lead in national polls — in January.
If the 23 Super Tuesday contests were more spread out, Obama would have done better in them. He was still behind in the national polls on Feb. 5.
I don’t see her picking up steam. I see her underperforming her brand in Pennsylvania, and in two weeks her minor gains there will be wiped out.
And a new storyline!
Except it’s the same storyline, with momentary deviations from the mean.
>Pat Skipper :
Obama caught a huge break when they threw out Michigan and Florida. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest Clinton would have won both handily, even if Obama had campaigned full out. I doubt Obama’s inexorability would have held up under that pressure. I think his fund raising would have suffered, and hers would have been bolstered.
Now, Obama has more delegates than Hillary, but not enough to get the nomination, and she’s gathering steam.
I didn’t know Hillary worked with the Black Panthers! She gotta be crazy to be talking about the Ayers guy.
Obama is going to cream Hillary in NC and make-up his meager loss in delegates yesterday. Unless something big happens, one of the candidates is going to walk away with one or two extra delegates in Indiana.
Oh, and Obama just took away about 1/16 of Hillary’s win yesterday by getting the Oklahoma Gov endorsement today.
At the end of the day, this game is played for chips. Nothing in the next 2 (or 10) weeks is going to change that Obama is way ahead. The only way Hillary can get the most chips is to mug Obama on his way to the cashier.
In what way does he keep losing? — He lost yesterday. I agree that he is in the lead and can’t be overtaken unless the superdelegates go to her at the end, but each time he loses, at least in the sense that he isn’t winning the popular vote, the more he starts causing voters, not so much commentators on TV,but voters, to think that he isn’t a “winner”, and given the propensity of people to vote for who they think is going to “win” it starts to become the unasked question in people’s minds as to why can’t this guy step up and slay the dragon.
As it is, he looks like he is going to have to go all the way to Denver without having locked it up in the popular vote, and will have to have the nomination awarded to him on the strength of superdelegates. Not the best.
Actually, I’ve noticed that Cap likes Arnold Schwarzenegger. Pretty tough to be a pro-Arnold hyperpartisan. — Actually, I know plenty of partisans of the left who admire Schwarzenegger. But I apologize to the board and to Cap in any event.
Hap – honestly, I think average voters haven’t given this 1% the thought you have.
I think you could argue that your analysis would be applicable to superdelegates. I think you’d be wrong, but you could make the argument.
Several of the Pennsylvanians I talked to today had the same basic message – it was nice to be the center of political attention for a couple weeks, but nothing was resolved. Even an Obama supporter lamented the proportional delegate allocation, saying “Millions were spent to give Hillary a few more delegates.” A guy from Montana had the best line, “Maybe we will have the most influence by going last.” Woulda, coulda, shoulda for California.
When Republicans for Hillary had its first meeting, we never would have guessed the self-inflicted wounds of the Democratic race might actually last until the Denver convention. Now it seems to be the most likely outcome.
Hillary needs to keep gut stabbing Obama through the ninth inning of this game. She picked up a couple runs in the 6th and 7th innings, so it is no time to quit before the final at-bat in Denver. Obama peaked in the third inning and is just treading water now.
Anyone know where to find a better steak and a decent wine list in Harrisburg? Without Team Billary’s free beer, I am not going back to Zembie’s.
The race is over. The only ones who don’t know are Clinton fanatics and people with a vested interest in pushing the Democrats to fight.
The race is over. The only ones who don’t know are Clinton fanatics and people with a vested interest in pushing the Democrats to fight.
Sorry for the double -posting.