Barack Obama says “Hasta la vista, baby” to the not so good Rev. Wright.
** SCHWARZENEGGER DISCUSSES CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WITH MICHAEL MILKEN IN LIVE WEBCAST THIS AFTERNOON. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s discusses California’s infrastructure and future with financier Michael Milken in this live webcast at 1 PM. This is part of the Milken Institute’s annual conference on California in LA. Milken, of course, is the famed ’80s junk bond pioneer and corporate raider. Convicted of various irregularities, after being pursued by, among others, then-prosecutor Rudy Giuliani, Milken — who I profiled on the occasion of his 50th birthday in 1996 — has reinvented himself as a philanthropist and futurist. And lest you think he lost his “ill-gotten gains” from the ’80s. He still ended up, best as I could tell over a decade ago, with over a billion dollars.
** POLLS. OBAMA LEADS NATIONALLY, LEADS BIG IN NORTH CAROLINA. In the new Rasmussen tracking polls, Barack Obama holds the lead over Hillary Clinton nationally, 47% to 43%. He has a significant lead in North Carolina, 51% to 37%.
NEW WEST NOTES is still being sorted, as the saying goes, following the tech transition to a new software platform (ironically, the original software platform when NWN was hosted on the LA Weekly server in 2006) late in the day on Monday. So things will be slower here until the site is sorted.
Incidentally, I have been on the road, developing a new video show to be webcast on PJ Media. It features insiders in the presidential campaigns, those of John McCain, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton.
** ISNT IT INTERESTING? How the biggest problems for Barack Obama are proving not to be on the right, which has huge problems with regard to public disdain for them, but the left?Consider. Without Bittergate, prompted by an activist blogger financial supporter of Obama writing on the pro-Obama Huffington Post, Obama was moving up in Pennsylvania. Consider. Without his pastor, who supposedly has devoted his life to promoting black people, Obama is moving up in Indiana and North Carolina, enough to squeeze the remaining life out of the Hillary Clinton candidacy. For fans of irony, this campaign has it all.What Wright, who was clearly something of a crank, even at his best — and it ain’t like I don’t know a lot of folks like that, on both ends of the spectrum — is trying to do is quite obvious. Extend his 15 minutes of fame and make himself the new Al Sharpton. And he has a new book to sell. Color me shocked.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY. Barack Obama is in Indianapolis and Bloomington, Indiana. Hillary Clinton is in South Bend, Portage, Lafayette, and Kokomo, Indiana. Bill Clinton is in Apex, Sanford, Lillington, Dunn, Hope Mills, Lumberton, and Whiteville, North Carolina. John McCain is in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel. You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Barack Obama playing basketball over the weekend with Indianahigh schoolers and a WNBA star.
** TECH TRANSITION CONTINUING. NWN moved to a different software platform this afternoon, which will slow things down here, certainly this afternoon and into Tuesday. Expect glitches.In addition, I’m going to alter the format. Instead of having essentially one rolling edition throughout the day, with items added to the original post from the morning, NWN will have a series of discrete items throughout the day. ** NATIONAL TRACKING POLL: OBAMA LEADS CLINTON, TIES MCCAIN. The busy Rasmussen robots have a brand new national tracking poll. Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally, 49% to 41%. Obama is tied with John McCain, 46-46, while Clinton trails McCain, 47-44. Obama and McCain are both plus-5 in the favorable/unfavorable measure. Clinton is minus-8.34% of Democrats want Clinton to drop out of the race, a number that has increased since before her win last week in Pennsylvania. Only 22% want Obama to drop out.Of course, this is a poll taken last night. Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s controversial appearance today at the National Press Club isn’t factored in. The rest of the media seems virtually unanimous in thinking more of the Wright Stuff, any Wright Stuff, is unalloyed in its badness for Obama. I don’t have a view of it yet, but it does seem apparent that Wright is seizing the main chance to make himself a major political media personality and sell, yes, his now forthcoming book. ** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.Barack Obama is in Wilmington, Wilson, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina.John McCain is in Miami, FloridaHillary Clinton is in Salisbury and Charlotte, North Carolina.Bill Clinton is in Carmel, Indiana.** SCHWARZENEGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has another of his California budget reform meetings this morning, this time with Orange County local elected officials, public safety officers, and business and community leaders.The event is webcast live at 9:45 AM.THE MORNING COLUMNA quieter week in presidential politics than the last, which was highlighted by Hillary Clinton’s expected 9-point win in Pennsylvania. Well, except for Rev. Jeremiah Wright addressing the National Press Club this morning in Washington, that is. We’ll return to that later. And we’ll discuss some major dynamics outside the campaign echo chamber, such as record oil prices, crumbling consumer confidence, and yesterday’s near assassination of our man in Kabul.John McCain had some success last week with his tour of “Forgotten Places” in America. But the novelty of the Republican candidate touring iconic places in the civil rights movement wore off after awhile, and by week’s end he was getting attention by attacking Barack Obama for his association with long-ago Weather Underground wacko Bill Ayers.This week McCain goes on a health care tour, hitting Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. Those happen, by an odd coincidence, to be key battleground states for the general election.Look for more McCain attacks on Obama this week. He and the Republicans are laying off of Hillary Clinton. Even her preposterous lie about coming under fire when she landed in Bosnia didn’t prompt attacks, though it would surely be devastating to her in the unlikely event she became the Democratic nominee.For now, it’s mostly about Obama, as McCain, the Republican Party and the Clintons all try to take him down.Obama, however, appears to be getting back on track following the long-expected Clinton win in Pennsylvania, the second-oldest state in the country, in a primary closed to the independent voters who favor Obama over Clinton. The Guam caucuses are on Saturday; North Carolina and Indiana hold their primaries next week.The Rasmussen tracking polls, run by Republican Scott Rasmussen, have emerged as valuable campaign tools. The Rasmussen national tracking poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton in the same range as before. According to Rasmussen: There is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from white women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.Rasmussen, incidentally, notes that Obama is now running even with or slightly ahead of McCain, with Clinton doing a little less well. Considering that it’s Obama who is the flak catcher, that may be a bit of a problem for the maverick Western senator.Obama appears headed for a big win in North Carolina, which may wipe out Clinton’s Pennsylvania gains in the popular vote. Indiana is more of a jump ball. A new poll for the Indianapolis Star finds a close race in the Hoosier State. It’s Barack Obama 41%, Hillary Clinton 38%. However, Obama leads John McCain by nine points, while Clinton is tied with the Republican. And by a 49% to 35% margin, Obama is seen as the best general election candidate. Another Indiana poll, for the South Bend Tribune (home of Notre Dame University), also finds a dead heat. It’s Obama 48%, Clinton 47%.Here’s an interesting bit of Democratic delegate math. Before Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton needed to win 63% in the remaining contests in order to overtake Barack Obama for the lead in earned delegates. Now she needs to win 68% the rest of the way. Hillary’s 9-point victory in Pennsylvania yields her about a dozen more delegates there than Obama won. That will probably be more than wiped out in little more than a week.Longtime top Clinton advisor Paul Begala, speaking at a luncheon held in New York by my old pal Patricia Duff’s group, The Common Good, said that he is “all but certain” that Barack Obama will win the Democratic presidential nomination. Begala, a longtime fixture as a CNN analyst, is also the longtime compadre of James Carville. Who, with tensions running high, so vociferously attacked New Mexico Governor (and former Clinton Cabinet member) Bill Richardson as “Judas” for his endorsement of the freshman Illinois senator.John McCain talks wrestling and America on the WWE’sMonday Night Raw.But Obama can’t simply coast to the Democratic presidential nomination. By far the least wealthy of the candidates — John McCain is the richest, followed by the Clintons — he’s nonetheless in danger of typecasting himself as an elitist. If the key test for the presidency is who is best at working a diner, then McCain, the son and grandson of four-star admirals, is your next president.Obama has a problem with white working class voters. It’s overstated to an extent because the fact he is generally losing these voters to Hillary Clinton has a lot to do with the Clintons’ appeal. After all, she was the “inevitable” nominee for most of this campaign, as you heard virt
ually everywhere but here, with supposedly the most awesome political machine in Democratic history, and so forth.But between the Wright Stuff and Bittergate, Obama has some long-term problems that go beyond Clinton winning one of her strongest states last week and his taste for arugula. (I had to look it up, it’s a kind of lettuce.)So he played basketball over the weekend, showing some good moves for an old guy (46). In Indiana, he’s no longer pacing the stage like a law professor while delivering high-flown speeches, he’s taking questions and talking specifics in town hall meetings, sleeves rolled up, tie loosened. He even went on Fox News Sunday yesterday, impressing the host and most on the panel that appeared after his 40-minute interview. Obama had pretty much stayed off of Fox News since the channel popularized a completely erroneous report from a right-wing web site run by a religious cult that he was educated in a hardcore Islamic school in Indonesia.And he’s making longer term moves, geared to the general election. There is an agreement between the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee to form a joint fundraising project, in which contributors to Obama’s record-shattering fundraising machine also give to the DNC. And there is the launch of a 50-state voter registration drive by the Obama campaign.But … there is also the risky re-emergence of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who speaks to the National Press Club today.The Wright Stuff is very risky indeed. The man whose outrageous comments seriously upset the Democratic frontrunner’s momentum and raised major questions about his fortunes in the general election is more than a little radioactive.So Bill and Hillary Clinton might be pleased. Until they consider this. House Majority Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina, an uncommitted superdelegate, charges them with playing the race card heavily and predicts that black voters who once revered the former president will never trust him again. And he goes further, to say what an increasing number of observers have been saying privately. Or not so privately. “The Clintons know she can’t win this,” says Clyburn. “But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win.”Once the Democratic nomination is settled, some big things happening outside the campaign echo chamber will have increasing bearing.Crashing property values. A worldwide credit crunch. Wall Street bailouts. Record oil prices. Record gasoline prices. Rising unemployment. The dollar at a record low against the euro. And so we have the lowest level of consumer confidence in the US since 1982. Afghan President Hamid Karzai narrowly escapes a Taliban hit team during yesterday’s celebration of his country’s independence from the Soviets.And yesterday Afghan President Hamid Karzai, on the 16th anniversary of his nation’s independence from the Soviet-backed regime, narrowly escaped being assassinated by a Taliban hit squad in the center of Kabul. Three people, including one member of the national parliament, were killed in the attack, which sent the assorted dignitaries in the grandstand, including the American, British, and Canadian ambassadors, scrambling for their lives. The Afghan fight has been going increasingly poorly over the past two years, as frequently discussed on NWN. …You can always see the entire MMQB on PJ Media.** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading between $119 and $120 per barrel.Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
At least two people, including one member of the national parliament, were killed by the Taliban, who attacked with automatic weapons and rocket fire. Three Taliban fighters were killed by government security forces.
The attack sent the assorted dignitaries in the grandstand, including the American and British ambassadors, scrambling for their lives, as seen in the video above. The Afghan fight has been going increasingly poorly over the past two years, as frequently discussed on NWN.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Indianapolis, Indiana and Chicago.
John McCain is in Coral Gables, Florida.
Hillary Clinton is in Wilmington, North Carolina.
Bill Clinton is in Hartford City, New Castle, Shelbyville, and Martinsville, Indiana.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull opens wide
in less than a month.
SATURDAY REPORTS
** NEWSWEEK NATIONAL POLL: OBAMA HAS A SIGNIFICANT LEAD OVER CLINTON. This should be no surprise. In a poll taken April 24-25, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton nationally, 46% to 38%.
** U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 26-YEAR LOW. Let’s review. Crashing property values. A worldwide credit crunch. Wall Street bailouts. Record oil prices. Record gasoline prices. Rising unemployment. The dollar at a record low against the euro. And so we have the lowest level of consumer confidence in the US since 1982.
I’m now paying $4.10 a gallon for gas. (Premium, yes, but the regular gasoline, which is not good for my car, is not that much lower.) The big wholesale outlets around me are rationing rice. (?!) But why worry?
** ROMNEY DOES RENO.Mitt Romney speaks to the Nevada Republican Convention today at the Peppermill in Reno on behalf of John McCain. Romney won the lightly-contested Nevada Republican caucuses, on the strength of Mormon voters, a contest totally overshadowed by the big Democratic fight between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards. Does this mean the former moderate Masschusetts governor-turned-great-right-hope will be McCain’s running mate? Well, you might want to make a small bet on that in Reno, the “Biggest Little City In The World.”
But I wouldn’t take that to Vegas if I were you.
** OBAMA ON FOX NEWS. This should be interesting. Barack Obama will appear for the first time on Fox News Sunday, the conservative cable outlet’s attempt to compete with the likes of Meet The Press. Its host is Chris Wallace, son of CBS legend Mike Wallace, who got into a notorious 2006 smack-down with former President Bill Clinton over what he did, and did not, do to catch Osama bin Laden.
Obama has pretty much stayed off of Fox News since the channel popularized a completely erroneous report from a right-wing web site that he was educated in a hardcore Islamic school in Indonesia. The Democratic frontrunner did appear on the Fox show Hannity & Colmes during the the Rev. Jeremiah Wright firestorm. I’m told he was going to be interviewed live by the hosts, conservative Sean Hannity and liberal Alan Colmes, but Hannity went off the deep end insisting that Obama’s career was over and that he would have to resign his seat in the Senate. Thus, in real time, disqualifying himself from conducting an interview with the frontrunning presidential candidate. Correspondent Major Garrett conducted it instead.
Wallace, meanwhile, a few weeks back went on the early morning chatfest Fox and Friends — which did not see fit to air John McCain’s important speech at the U.S. Naval Academy, mind you (let’s guess, vets on that show, zero?) — to criticize the hosts for their continual Obama-bashing. He ended up walking off the set after the exchange became heated. (This, incidentally, is the show which repeatedly invoked the fake story about Obama’s Muslim education. The story originated on a web site run by a religious cult, that of the Rev. Moon.)
Tomorrow’s appearance should be quite interesting.
Incidentally, I think it would be good for hyperpartisans of all stripes to get past their McCain Derangement Syndrome and Obama Derangement Syndrome.
** SPORTS THIS WEEKEND: F1 AND NFL DRAFT. Along with the National Football League Draft of top college players, the first two rounds of which are on Saturday, with the remaining five rounds on Sunday, there is the fourth race in the 18-race, globe-spanning season of Formula One racing. The F1 circuit takes us to Europe, for the Spanish Grand Prix. Defending F1 world champion Kimi Raikonnen is locked in a duel with 2007 rookie runner-up Lewis Hamilton. And in the team championship, defending champion Ferrari, BWW Sauber, and McLaren Mercedes are all within two points of one another.
The F1 Spanish Grand Prix starts at 5 AM Pacific Sunday on the Speed TV channel. In the front row of the grid are Raikonnen and Spaniard Fernando Alonso of Renault, winner of the 2005 and 2006 world driving championships.
** BROWN CHANGES STATE POLICY ON D.N.A. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown has changed California state policy on the use of DNA testing to nab criminals. Previously, only an exact match would be used to pursue so-called “cold cases,” those which have proved impervious to less high tech forms of crime solving. Now, Brown will use the State of California’s DNA databank to look for close matches. Which can mean imperfect renderings of the original data or close relatives. Using the close match approach will enable investigators to zero in on potential perpetrators who might not be in the system as convicted criminals themselves.
Brown, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, unveiled the policy change before the California District Attorneys Association, which, naturally, was appreciative.
Releasing partial matches raises privacy and due process issues that have yet to be tested in the courts, Brown acknowledged in an interview with The Associated Press. Doing so has the potential to focus a criminal probe on an individual who did not commit the crime. But he said there are protections built into the state Department of Justice’s new policy. It would be used rarely, only after extensive double-testing and when all other leads have been exhausted, he said.
“It’s a step forward in prosecuting very serious cases,” Brown told a meeting of the California District Attorneys Association conference, referring to the use of DNA analysis. Later Thursday, he announced the policy shift in a bulletin to law enforcement agencies statewide.
California’s 1 million DNA samples is the world’s third largest DNA database of criminal offenders, after the national databases in the U.S. and Great Britain. It will greatly expand next year, when DNA will be collected from anyone arrested for a crime, regardless of whether they are convicted.
The state’s database has produced more than 5,000 matches, when all DNA collected from a crime scene matches the 26 markers from a particular individual’s DNA. Under the new policy, local law enforcement investigators also would be told when 15 or more of the 26 genetic markers match.
An additional test would then be performed on the DNA’s Y chromosome, a requirement that limits the tests only to males. A statistical analysis would be used to predict whether the suspect is likely to be a close relative — a brother, father, son or grandfather. The policy permits using an even lower standard than 15 matches in cases such as serial killings or rapes in which investigators have exhausted other leads.
The name linked to the partial match would be revealed to investigators only if Brown’s office concludes they have no other clues. The number of such cases is likely to be quite limited. “In a very serious case, this might be the only tool that would allow you to identify the suspect,” Brown said. “It points you in the right direction, but then you’ve got to prove it.”
Hillary Clinton is in Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in Junction City, Albany, Monmouth, McMinnville, Oregon City, and Portland, Oregon.
John McCain is off the trail.
There is a new Bond Girl on hand for the currently filming Quantum
of Solace, former supermodel Olga Kurylenko.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Rev. Jeremiah Wright surfaces tonight on Bill Moyers’ PBS show.
** SCHWARZENEGGER OPPOSES PROP 98 EMINENT DOMAIN INITIATIVE ON CALIFORNIA’S JUNE BALLOT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has just announced his opposition to the Prop 98 eminent domain initiative on the June ballot.
“Eminent domain is an issue worth addressing,” said Schwarzenegger in his statement. “However Proposition 98 would undermine California’s ability to improve our infrastructure, including our water delivery and storage. California voters strongly support rebuilding our transportation, housing, education and water infrastructure, so it would be irresponsible to support a measure that would prevent the state from accomplishing our goals.”
The measure, championed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and other conservative groups, is opposed by a host of groups, from liberal organizations angry about its stealthy preemption of of renters rights and local rent control laws to the California Chamber of Commerce and former Republican Governor Pete Wilson. It was already lagging in recent polling.
Begala, a longtime fixture as a CNN analyst, is also the longtime compadre of James Carville. Who, with tensions running high, so vociferously attacked New Mexico Governor (and former Clinton Cabinet member) Bill Richardson as “Judas” for his endorsement of the freshman Illinois senator.
Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary. These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.
** HERE IS THE NAVY STATEMENT ON A PERSIAN GULF INCIDENT. Released by the 5th Fleet in Bahrain regarding the incident that helped cause an upward move in oil prices. While transiting north in international waters in the Central Arabian Gulf April 24 at approximately 8 a.m. local time, Motor Vessel Westward Venture was approached by two unidentified small boats.
Following proper procedure, Westward Venture issued standard queries to the small boats via bridge-to-bridge radio, but received no response. Westward Venture then activated a flare, which also did not receive a response.
The small boats continued toward Westward Venture and the ship’s embarked security team fired warning shots. The small boats left the area. A short time later, Westward Venture received a query from a unit identifying itself as Iranian Coast Guard. It is not clear if this was one of the small boats or a separate boat. The query was routine and correct.
Westward Venture is a U.S. flagged and chartered roll-on/roll-off ship. It is a cargo ship approximately 1,000 feet long and owned by Totem Ocean Trailer Express Inc.
** NEW OIL PRICE RECORD. Crude oil just broke through the $120 per barrel barrier. The renewed upward drive in the oil price is due to the continuing weakness of the dollar against the euro, OPEC’s refusal to increase production levels, an incident in which a US cargo ship (non-military) fired warning shots at some Iranian boats, attacks by Nigerian guerillas against oil pipelines, and a big risk premium built into the price by various geopolitical crises, mostly around the Middle East.
** BIG MOVES AROUND OBAMA. Let’s see. There is the risky re-emergence of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, seen in the clip above from tonight’s PBS appearance, who speaks to the National Press Club next week.
There is an agreement between the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee to form a joint fundraising project, in which contributors to Obama also give to the DNC.
There is the launch of a 50-state voter registration drive by the Obama campaign.
The Wright Stuff is very risky indeed. The man whose outrageous comments seriously upset the Democratic frontrunner’s momentum and raised major questions about his fortunes in the general election is more than a little radioactive.
And he goes further, to say what an increasing number of observers have been saying privately. Or not so privately.
“The Clintons know she can’t win this,” says Clyburn. “But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win.”
Wright appears on liberal broadcaster Bill Moyers’ show. There’s an interesting connection between the two, which I suspect will be brought out at some point.
Moyers was press secretary for then President Lyndon Johnson. Wright is a former Marine and Navy corpsman who won a commendation for attending to Johnson when he was ill. How does this square with Wright’s angry condemnations of America?
** INDIANA POLLS: STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT FOR DEMS, BUT OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN.A new poll for the Indianapolis Star finds a close race in the Hoosier State. It’s Barack Obama 41%, Hillary Clinton 38%. However, Obama leads John McCain by nine points, while Clinton is tied with the Republican. And by a 49% to 35% margin, Obama is seen as the best general election canddiate.
Barack Obama is in Indianapolis and Kokomo, Indiana.
Hillary Clinton is in Bloomington, Gary, and East Chicago, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in North Bend, Oregon.
John McCain is at Arkansas Baptist College and Oklahoma City.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger joins U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters and LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa this morning in Los Angeles to announce federal funding for a major congestion reduction program. I suspect Schwarzenegger will have a few choice words off-camera for Peters about the administration’s back-door attempt to preempt California’s climate change laws.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Last night on The Tonight Show, while discussing climate change and the environment with his friend, host Jay Leno, the former action superstar noted that “Everybody deserves a little Hummer.”
By which he meant, presumably, a smaller and more carbon-friendly version of the Hummer SUV.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LEADS STATES IN COUNTERATTACK AGAINST BACK-DOOR PREEMPTION ATTEMPT ON GREENHOUSE GASES. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and company are mighty unhappy with the Bush White House these days after learning of language buried in a 400-plus page document about fuel efficiency standards that could preempt California’s landmark climate change laws. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown was first off the mark on this early this week, with California’s U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer not far behind. Now Schwarzenegger has written to President Bush expressing his displeasure, rounding up the governors of 11 other states to join him in the process.
On Tuesday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) used a proposed rulemaking on Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in an attempt to preempt our states and others across the nation that are working to control greenhouse gas emissions. States must take this action because the federal government has not adequately responded to this urgent threat.
NHTSA has no authority to preempt states from regulating greenhouse gases. Congress and two federal district courts have rejected NHTSA’s claim to such authority. Furthermore, this attack completely undermines the cooperative federalism principles embodied in the Clean Air Act, and is an end run around 40 years of precedent under that law.
Our states intend to comment on the proposed rulemaking and, if necessary, will sue NHTSA, just as California and other states have sued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to ensure that states retain the right to reduce global climate change emissions. We hope that you will reconsider this rulemaking on CAFE in light of the crucial efforts undertaken by states to address greenhouse gas emissions.
The eleven other governors joining Schwarzenegger are the governors of Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Washington.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, which I know as a former DemRussia advisor, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** THE PETRAEUS MOVE. Here is another angle on the White House move of General Petraeus from commanding the Iraq theater to serving as chief of US Central Command. I have not seen this reported anywhere else.
A new Democratic president would be expected by many to remove Petraeus from the Iraq command. There is no term for theater commanders.
There is however, in the US Armed Forces, a term on the tenures of heads of major regional combatant commands, such as NATO, Central Command, Pacific Command, and so forth. It is three years. And the commander usually gets a fourth year.
That means that a President Obama, for example, would risk a firestorm of protest in the military and much of the country if he tried to remove Petraeus from the CentCom post. As head of Central Command, Petraeus will, if confirmed as expected by the Senate this summer, be in overall charge of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
President Bush and Vice President Cheney are trying to ensure that Petraeus remains in charge of the Iraq War for at least three more years, and perhaps a fourth.
He issued a new and scathing critique of the “terrible and disgraceful” failure of the Bush administration’s response to the disaster.
McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, said that had he been president he would have immediately visited the area after the storm hit in August 2005. While he’s been critical of the administration’s Katrina response before, the Arizona senator’s remarks today were some of the sharpest he’s used.
“Never again will a disaster of this nature be handled in this terrible and disgraceful manner,” McCain said after a walking tour of the Lower Ninth Ward, a predominantly black neighborhood that was devastated by Katrina. “History will judge this president,” he said. “This was an unacceptable scenario.”
McCain toured New Orleans with Louisiana’s new Republican Governor Bobby Jindal, an Indian-American who replaced the Democrat who served at the time of Hurricane Katrina.
** SCHWARZENEGGER POLITICAL SHOP. Josh Ginsberg, late of the Mitt Romney campaign, has signed on with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political operation as a political director. Actually, he has re-signed on with the former action superstar. He’s seen here in the video look behind the scenes of Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign in which he served as deputy political director. He’ll work with more seasoned figures such as Steve Schmidt — Schwarzenegger’s campaign manager, who now has his hands full as John McCain’s senior advisor — former Schwarzenegger communications director Adam Mendelsohn, and former Schwarzenegger press secretary Julie Soderlund in overseeing the governor’s involvement in the midterm elections and his initiative campaigns.
Before Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton needed to win 63% in the remaining contests in order to overtake Barack Obama for the lead in earned delegates. Now she needs to win 68% the rest of the way.
John McCain on his tour of “forgotten” places in America.
** MCCAIN’S VEEP: A STRAW IN THE WIND FROM MINNESOTA.Here’s an interesting item. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (see below re polling in his state) had a Washington funder last night for his re-election, in 2010. It was attended by a who’s who of Beltway Republicans, with some notable McCainiacs co-hosting and putting in appearances. Pawlenty was a key early backer of McCain, who stuck as his campaign melted down last year, not once but twice. The host of the event, former Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman (close to other veep hopefuls Rob Portman and Mitt Romney, and a law school acquaintance of Barack Obama), joked about Pawlenty’s wife supposedly calling him “45.” McCain would be “44,” as in the 44th president of the United States.
** POST-PENNSYLVANIA SUPERDELEGATES SO FAR: OBAMA 3, CLINTON 1.Oregon Congressman David Wu this morning endorsed Barack Obama for president. Wu represents the Portland suburbs. The Oregon primary is on May 20th. Wu is one of three uncommitted superdelegates to endorse Obama since he lost the Pennsylvania primary to Hillary Clinton the day before yesterday. Clinton has picked up one.
One of the three is Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry, who endorsed Obama yesterday. Intriguingly, it was Clinton, not Obama, who won the Oklahoma primary.
Obama’s favorables are moving back up, to 51% favorable, 47% unfavorable. McCain is 51% favorable, 45% unfavorable, while Clinton is 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable. Obama’s unfavorable rating has generally been much higher in this poll than in other polls.
On the Democratic side, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42%.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Chicago, where he has no public events.
Hillary Clinton is in Jacksonville, Fayetteville, and Asheville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers the keynote address at the DNA/Cold Case Summit, hosted by the California District Attorneys Association.
The DNA/Cold Case Summit highlights “cold” homicide cases. The summit also provides training opportunities for prosecutors, law enforcement officers, and crime victim advocates.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who spent the day yesterday in the Capitol working on knotty California budget issues, returns to a more convivial setting tonight when he appears with his friend Jay Leno on The Tonight Show.
Barack Obama kicking off his drive for Indiana after losing Pennsylvania.
Both Democrats have the same 20-point edge over McCain among women. The difference in the results is among men. There Obama leads McCain by three points, while Clinton trails by 16 points.
Minnesota voted only narrowly for the Democratic nominee in the two elections against George W. Bush, with John Kerry carrying the state by only three points in 2004 and Al Gore by only two points in 2000.
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was a key McCain backer in the primaries and is said to be a leading contender for the Republican vice presidential nomination.
In the U.S. Senate race there, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman leads comedian Al Franken, 50% to 43%.
Coloradans are split over Obama’s Bittergate remarks. 44% believe they reflect an elitist point of view, while 44% do not.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
What does it mean? Not that it’s being discussed at all in the constant chatter of the presidential race.
Petraeus is one of the few flag rank US officers to emerge from Iraq with an enhanced reputation. This is because the surge strategy has been relatively successful, at least at stabilizing Iraq. Although Petraeus delivered a sobering report to Congress, describing the situation in Iraq as “fragile and reversible.” As rocket fire struck the heavily guarded Green Zone and Iran brokered an uneasy peace between battling Shiite factions in southern Iraq.
I think it means Afghanistan will no longer be the forgotten war. The Afghan War of 2001, in the wake of 9/11, was a low-cost triumph of American arms. But Osama bin Laden was allowed to escape, along with other Al Qaeda and Taliban cadre, taking up positions in remote portions of Pakistan.
Al Qaeda Prime, as distinguished from affiliates and, if you will, franchisees, are able to issue propaganda manifestos and launch strategic attacks. The Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan, where US and NATO forces are low on manpower and maneuverable firepower. The Taliban have not turned the tide, but the signs are very troubling. Petraeus gets to turn his skilled attentions to these fundamental problems. While hoping that his subordinate, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, can keep things together in Iraq, where he will take over as US commander.
** NEVADA: JOHN MCCAIN NOW LEADS OBAMA AND CLINTON. Nevada is a key swing state in presidential politics, one of the reasons the Democrats selected it for the third contest of the primary season. Way back on January 19th. A month ago, Barack Obama led John McCain there. Now he trails McCain, in the latest Rasmussen robopoll. Though he runs significantly better against McCain than does Hillary Clinton, narrow winner of the Nevada Democratic caucuses.
It’s McCain 48%, Obama 43%. And McCain 49%, Clinton 38%.
If you’re wondering about the impact of the ongoing Democratic foodfight, here it is in this state party strategists have been plotting to pick off in the general election.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters in the state, up from 49% a month ago. Both Democrats are viewed less favorably than they were a month ago. Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters, down from 53% in March. Clinton’s latest numbers are 42% favorable, down from 49% a month ago.
** TOM HAYDEN OUTS HILLARY CLINTON’S RADICAL BACKGROUND.Famed ’60s radical-turned-California state senator Tom Hayden — among many other things, he was president of Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) before future Weather Underground wacko Bernardine Dohrn (aka Mrs. Bill Ayers) — details Hillary’s Clinton’s personal background in radical politics. The ex-Chicago Seven defendant knows his radical politics.
To take just one example, the imagined association between Barack Obama and Bill Ayers will suffice. Hillary is blind to her own roots in the Sixties. In one college speech she spoke of ecstatic transcendence; in another, she said, “our social indictment has broadened. Where once we exposed the quality of life in the world of the South and the ghettos, now we condemn the quality of work in factories and corporations. Where once we assaulted the exploitation of man, now we decry the destruction of nature as well. How much long can we let corporations run us?” She was in Chicago for three nights during the 1968 street confrontations. She chaired the 1970 Yale law school meeting where students voted to join a national student strike again an “unconscionable expansion of a war that should never have been waged.” She was involved in the New Haven defense of Bobby Seale during his murder trial in 1970, as the lead scheduler of student monitors. She surely agreed with Yale president Kingman Brewster that a black revolutionary couldn’t get a fair trial in America. She wrote that abused children were citizens with the same rights as their parents. [75] Most significantly in terms of her recent attacks on Barack, after Yale law school, Hillary went to work for the left-wing Bay Area law firm of Truehaft, Walker and Burnstein, which specialized in Black Panthers and West Coast labor leaders prosecuted for being communists. Two of the firm’s partners, according to Treuhaft, were communists and the two others “tolerated communists”. Then she went on to Washington to help impeach Richard Nixon, whose career was built on smearing and destroying the careers of people through vague insinuations about their backgrounds and associates. [all citations from Carl Bernstein's sympathetic biography, A Woman in Charge, 2007, pp. 67,69,70,75, 83]
All these were honorable words and associations in my mind, but doesn’t she see how the Hillary of today would accuse the Hillary of the Sixties of associating with black revolutionaries who fought gun battles with police officers, and defending pro-communist lawyers who backed communists? Doesn’t the Rev. Jeremiah Wright whom Hillary attacks today represent the very essence of the black radicals Hillary was associating with in those days?And isn’t the Hillary of today becoming the same kind of guilt-by-association insinuator as the Richard Nixon she worked to impeach?
** THE CURRENT PENNSYLVANIA MARGIN: NINE POINTS. So what was Hillary Clinton’s margin over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania?
The networks reported 10 points, then went away. I noted early this morning that the margin was down to 8 points. Now, with some votes still outstanding, according to the official state tally, it’s 9 points. Clinton 54.6% to Obama 45.4%.
The expected high single digits.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in New Albany, Indiana, Washington, DC, and Chicago.
Hillary Clinton is in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Bill Clinton is in Hillsborough, Elon, Asheboro, Thomasville, and Statesville, North Carolina.
John McCain is in Inez, Kentucky.
NBC political director Chuck Todd says it is virtually impossible
for Barack Obama to be overtaken.
** FROM THE ARNOLD FILE: SCHWARZENEGGER’S EARTH DAY. While we were consumed with Game Day Pennsylvania yesterday, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger celebrated Earth Day.
He designated 40,000 acres of the Irvine Ranch in Orange County as California’s first “natural landmark.” Then he venteured north to the Central Valley city of Modesto, where participated in the launch of what’s slated to be the largest solar thermal system in the country, at the Frito-Lay manufacturing plant.
Schwarzenegger is off the road today, holding private meetings in and around the Capitol in advance of the annual May budget revise.
Buried inside the 417-page proposal is a section that would prevent states, such as California, from regulating tailpipe fuel economy standards.
California Attorney General Jerry Brown said the provisions were a “covert assault” on his state’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He vowed to “fight it every step of the way and we will sue them if necessary.”
Brown said the “pre-emption” language in the plan ignored rulings by the Supreme Court and two federal district courts that said the federal gas mileage standards were separate from state greenhouse gas regulations.
** AN “AMERICAN INDEPENDENT” — SAN FRANCISCO’S FUTURE FIRST LADY. We should probably add about two percent to the numbers of independent voters in California. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s fiancee, actress Jennifer Siebel, is registered American Independent. Siebel, a former Republican, registered AI because she thought it meant, you know, independent. She didn’t know that the old right-wing party is actually one of the state’s minor parties, albeit its largest. This is probably a common mistake among the politically unwary.
Keeping this in mind, the independent share of the California electorate would move to 22%. With 43.5% Democratic and 33% Republican.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Former President Bill Clinton explains today that he did not say what he seemed to say yesterday, when he seemed to say that it was not he, as widely concluded, but the Obama campaign which played the race card in South Carolina.
** SUMMING UP. I had some radio shows to do for awhile there, including Jim Bohannon’s national show out of Washington.
So, summing up, after some distracting exit polls this afternoon, we’re where we were this morning.
Hillary Clinton won the big state that is tailor made for her appeal. Barack Obama’s momentum there was stalled out by “Bittergate,” and a poor debate performance last week.
Clinton ends up winning by about 10 points. Not the scarily close win that might have hastened party elders off the fence sooner rather than later to bring a finish to her candidacy. But not the blowout she needed to alter the trajectory of the race.
Obama seems likely to make up her gains in the popular vote, which has no official bearing on the nomination, in two weeks in the last big state of the race, North Carolina. Clinton’s success today in Pennsylvania yielded her a net gain of 16 delegates, dropping Obama’s edge in delegates won in the primary and caucus contests to about 150.
Clinton’s victory today in this second oldest of the big states (after Florida) was built largely upon her appeal to older voters, women, and rural voters. She swept the small rural counties — where folks may be a little bit “bitter” about Obama’s private San Francisco fundraiser comments revealed in the Huffington Post — by huge margins. Obama won narrowly among men, but lost big among women, who made up nearly 60% of the primary electorate. He won big among younger voters, but lost big among older voters. 70% of the voters were over 45.
The race moves on to Guam, on May 3rd, and more consequentially to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th. Obama should take North Carolina and Guam, with Indiana, which should be natural Hillary turf, starting out as something of a toss-up.
On May 13th, West Virginia votes, and Hillary is a heavy favorite there.
On May 20th, it’s Oregon and Kentucky, the latter of which is, like West Virginia, not unlike the middle of Pennsylvania where Hillary did very well. Oregon looks like Obama territory.
On June 1st, Puerto Rico votes, and Hillary is favored there.
On June 3rd, the primaries end in Montana and South Dakota, where Obama should finish on an up note. Assuming that the race goes that far.
** FINAL EXITS. With networks beginning to call the Pennsylvania primary, as expected, for Hillary Clinton, the final exit poll numbers are coming out at Clinton 53%, Obama 47%.
The key dividing line, as I noted early this morning, is generational.
Obama has a big lead among voters under 45.
But Pennsylvania is second only to Florida as the oldest major state in America. And 70% of the voters are over 45.
** WHY “TOO CLOSE TO CALL” MATTERS. Here is why the media exit poll call of “too close to call” matters.
Not because Hillary Clinton will come in second in Pennsylvania behind Barack Obama. I still don’t expect that. But because she is clearly not getting the big win she needs to keep a sense of momentum moving forward, coming out of what is demographically her best big state — very much older, primary closed to independents, less educated, more blue collar, fewer minorities, etc. — still trailing the frontrunner by a large margin of earned delegates.
I spoke with a few big Clinton fundraisers today. Their networks are tapped out.
The former first lady is now heavily reliant on the Internet for fundraising. And that is Obama Land.
She can raise money there still. But she needs hope. Or a sense of grievance. Or a sense of momentum.
Meanwhile, Obama has over $40 million in cash, with no debt. She has several million dollars on hand, and over $10 million in debt. Not counting the $5 million she and former President Clinton loaned to her campaign to be competitive in the Super Tuesday contests of February, in which she was originally going to wrap up the nomination.
Half of her debt is to her former chief strategist and pollster, Mark Penn. Who she dismissed after it emerged he was lobbying for a Latin American trade deal she says she’s against.
The other half of her debt is to vendors around the country. Who are now dunning her for their money.
Obama keeps spending, forcing her to try to keep up with his financial juggernaut. I’m told that she is spending well over 100% of what she had been raising recently.
Unless she keeps her mojo going with a big win in Pennsylvania, she can’t keep raising at the same rate she’s been raising. And that rate is still less than her burn rate. Which is entirely aside from her massive, and growing debt.
** PENNSYLVANIA “TOO CLOSE TO CALL.”
The polls have just closed and the networks say, based on exit polls, “It’s too close to call.”
As I said a few hours ago … Stay tuned.
Hillary Clinton needs a big win over Barack Obama.
** AN EXIT POLL DRAMA. There is something of a drama taking place with the Pennsylvania primary exit polls.
In the first wave of exit polls, the Drudge Report reports that Hillary Clinton is narrowly ahead of Barack Obama.
In the second wave of exit polls, it appears that Barack Obama is narrowly ahead of Hillary Clinton.
But there are questions about sampling. Are Obama strongholds in Eastern Pennsylvania oversampled?
The army of the undecideds. The final round of polls report that roughly 10 percent of the Pennsylvania voters had not yet decided between Clinton and Barack Obama. That’s a sizeable number of people; if, as widely expected, this primary draws a record two million voters (or 50 percent of the Democratic registration), this means that 200,000 Democrats haven’t made up their minds.
And if the past is prologue, this translates into a sizeable advantage for Clinton – one that could arguably add several percentage points to a Clinton victory.
Notwithstanding Obama’s successes in 2008, the inescapable fact is that he has been a poor closer. In most of the primaries thus far, he has been spurned by those voters who withheld their choice until the eleventh hour. The late undecideds have broken for Clinton in almost every contest, opting to go with the known quantity instead of taking a leap with the new guy.
For a lot of reasons (as well as experience in the other states), Polman thinks the undecideds inherently favor what they know — especially in PA:
It’s hard to imagine that undecided Pennsylvanians will break for Obama today; the state’s political culture has long preferred familiar brands to the flavor of the month. And the latest surveys indicate that the undecideds are heavily concentrated on Hillary-friendly turf.
** A DIFFERENT RESULT IN THE ’90S WITH NEW TECH? It’s becoming a very open question whether or not Bill Clinton would have won the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992, much less the presidency, had information technology been so widespread then as it is now and had transcripts, audio, and video been so accessible as a result.
INTERVIEWER (RE: Jackson comment): “Do you think that was a mistake, and would you do that again?”
CLINTON: “No. I think that they played the race card on me. And we now know, from memos from the campaign and everything, that they planned to do it along.
But today in Pittsburgh, Clinton denied that he said what you just read above, and attacked the reporter who asked him about it.
NBC/NJ: “Sir, what did you mean yesterday when you said that the Obama campaign was playing the race card on you?”
CLINTON: “When did I say that, and to whom did I say that?”
NBC/NJ: “On WHYY radio yesterday.”
CLINTON: “No, no, no. That’s not what I said. You always follow me around and play these little games, and I’m not going to play your games today. This is a day about election day. Go back and see what the question was, and what my answer was. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story to divert the American people from the real urgent issues before us, and I choose not to play your game today. Have a nice day.”
** A NEW OIL PRICE RECORD. While the political class and associated chatterers go on about the Pennsylvania primary, which probably will not affect the ultimate outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination, something that matters tremendously to most Americans just got a lot worse today.
Oil is up $10 per barrel since the beginning of last week. And over $2 per barrel since yesterday.
The oil price is killing airlines and driving gasoline to $4 a gallon. Actually, I’ve been paying $4 a gallon since before the “Bittergate” controversy consumed media bandwidth.
The upward spike is coming in the wake of guerilla attacks in Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer, a seaborne pirate attack, the incredible weakness of the dollar against the euro, and a huge risk premium built into the price by ongoing multiple Middle Eastern crises.
Certainly a great deal for presidential candidates in both parties to discuss.
Not that they are.
Sure to be on John Mellencamp’s playlist tonight at the Barack
Obama rally in Indiana, his Hall of Fame hit, “Small Town.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY, AND TONIGHT. One of the key indicators about a primary day is where the candidates are on primary night.
Hillary Clinton is in Philadelphia today. And tonight. Her victory party will be at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Philadelphia.
Barack Obama campaigns in Pittsburgh this morning and Philadelphia this afternoon.
But tonight, he is in Evansville, Indiana, at Roberts Municipal Stadium. Indiana votes on on May 6th, along with North Carolina.
Obama has a big lead in the Tarheel State. But the Hoosier State is close. While early polls showed a Clinton lead, recent polls show Obama with only a slight lead there.
So the freshman Illiniois senator aims to make a big show in Indiana tonight, with the national media spotlight on him. Joining the Democratic frontrunner tonight is roots rock superstar John Mellencamp, who will play a mini-concert for the assembled Obama supporters.
Sure to be on the Mellencamp play list tonight? His old hit, “Small Town.”
Mellencamp, not incidentally, is a native of Indiana.
Not to be left out of the spotlight is presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. He continues his Forgotten America tour today, which he kicked off yesterday in Selma, Alabama, site of the one of the most infamous police beatings of civil rights protesters in the 1960s, with a speech in Youngstown, Ohio. There the Vietnam War hero seeks to show that he relates to the problems of those in the former Steel Town USA.
Today is one of Hillary Clinton’s final opportunities to remain
a major factor in the Democratic presidential race.
** GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA.
Finally, it’s the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. According to the media, an enormous event. But maybe not. One thing it is is another long day’s journey into night, as Pennsylvania officials expect a slow count to the final result. In part because they have not had a hotly contested presidential primary in over 20 years. And in part because they have several hundred thousand new voters and switcher voters (independent or Republican) to contend with.
It is certainly Hillary Clinton’s last best chance to get back into a race in which — as I look at it — it is next to impossible for her to finish first at the end of the primaries and caucuses on June 3rd. Clinton, who trails frontrunner Barack Obama by roughly 150 earned delegates, at least three-quarters of a million popular votes (and many more when you include the caucuses, as you should) and literally tens of millions of dollars in fundraising (mostly not from billionaires, but from small donors), is looking for a big psychological victory today.
What constitutes big? Well, it depends on your perspective. At the beginning of March, Clinton led Obama in Pennsylvania by 20 to 25 points. Today, she leads by anywhere from a few points to 10 points. But the undecided voters — at least those reached by pollsters, young voters are increasingly reachable only by mobile phones, which aren’t a factor with most polling outfits — seem to fit the profile of those who might be offended by Bittergate. Older, rural, more socially conservative.
The Clinton campaign furiously objected to a Drudge report yesterday that its internal polling on Sunday night showed her with an 11-point lead. The campaign claimed that it didn’t poll on Sunday night. Which, since most every serious campaign in a serious race polls on a Sunday night, was, let’s say, somewhat suspicious.
The truth is that the Clintons don’t know what’s going to happen today. They expect to win — as they should, handily, given the state’s demographics (more on that in a moment) — but will take any margin of victory at this point.
Six weeks ago, they predicted a huge victory in Pennsylvania. Which the former first lady needs to begin to cut appreciably into Obama’s leads in earned delegates and the overall vote. Now they will spin whatever they get.
Obama was probably never going to win Pennsylvania, but he was closing until “Bittergate” — the media firestorm inadvertently sparked by the report of his arguably demeaning comments about small town Americans — reported by his supporters at Huffington Post, made at a private, off-the-record fundraiser in San Francisco. That ended his upward movement in Pennsylvania polls.
Obama has had two major media firestorms to contend with since the last voting, six weeks ago in Mississippi, where he won in a landslide. Besides Bittergate, there was the Wright Stuff, the rather more consequential remarks made by his now famous former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Looking at the national polls, Obama has confounded his harshest critics’ deepest hopes by weathering both crises. He leads handily in today’s Rasmussen poll, 49% to 41%. And he leads by more in other recent polls, where he generally runs better than among the Rasmussen robots.
Which does not mean that these issues are not likely to come back round in a general election.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is, as it has always been, Clinton’s to lose. Her husband the former president is popular there, and has campaigned incessantly in the Keystone State. The Pennsylvania primary is closed to the independents who have buoyed Obama to many big victories around the country. Pennsylvania is a traditionally machine politics state, and the biggest machine is controlled by popular Governor Ed Rendell, Hillary’s biggest backer. It is a state with a lower than average minority population for a big state. It is a state with fewer college graduates than other big states. And it is the second oldest of the major states in America, trailing only Florida in its proportion of senior citizens following the out-migration of many young people.
Age, incidentally, is the biggest divider in the Democratic presidential race. As I look at the contests to date, younger voters are usually for Obama. Older voters are usually for Clinton. It’s usually a more than 2 to 1 margin for Obama for voters up to 30, and more than 2 to 1 for Clinton for voters over 65.
So how much is enough for Hillary today to retain relevance in the race? Today, the cable pundits are hedging, increasingly setting the bar low. Arbitrarily so, it seems to me. A continuing contest means continuing conflict, continuing chatter, continuing what they do best.
The number is 5 points, or 7 points, or 9 points, or 10 points, or 12 points.
Or something.
A month ago, it seemed she needed to win by 15 to 20 points. But that is probably not going to happen. So the bar has been lowered to … whatever.
What is clear is that Clinton will continue on unless she actually loses to Obama today. Which the Bittergate controversy virtually guarantees will not happen. If she loses by only a handful of points, the superdelegates — who, after all, have spurned her supposedly inevitable candidacy all last year to remain neutral — will probably jump on the Obama bandwagon.
In reality, looking at most of the next contests, she needs to win really big to alter the overall dynamic.
But that is unlikely to happen. So she will likely soldier on, hoping for yet another crisis that might at last wreck Obama’s candidacy.
At least until the voting two weeks from now, in North Carolina and Indiana.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Barack Obama rolled out this ad countering Hillary Clinton’s “Stand The Heat” ad launched earlier today. “Who in times of challenge will unite us, not use fear and calculation to divide us?”
** THE CHANGING FACE OF CALIFORNIA POLITICS. Here’s the change in partisan registration figures for California in the Arnold Era, from stats provided Friday by California Secretary of State Debra Bowen.
January 2004
Democrats 43.2%
Republicans 35.7%
Independents* 17.1%
* (decline to state and miscellaneous)
The Democrats are doing a good job of treading water, increasing their share of the California electorate by 0.3%. There are more Democrats now than four years ago, of course, as the population increases.
The Republicans have lost three points during a period which has seen two landslide elections for Arnold Schwarzenegger as California’s governor.
Independents have gained three points. The minor parties, such as Greens and Libertarians, have remained under one percent each.
Clearly, the best conceptual route to the highest offices in California is to be a Democrat who can win independents.
A conservative Republican, or a Republican who can readily be portrayed as a conservative Republican, has an enormous uphill battle.
Why has Schwarzenegger enjoyed such unique success? Three reasons. First, he was never a conservative Republican. Second, he is properly positioned on a matrix of issues and themes, along dual axes of left-right and future-past. Third, he is a unique brand, a global icon, thanks to his own moves and decisions and to massive studio promotion to establish him as the world’s greatest action movie star.
** OIL PRICE CRASHES THROUGH ANOTHER RECORD TODAY. Crude oil crashed through the $117 barrier, closing today at a record $117.54 per barrel.
** SCHWARZENEGGER GOING ALL OUT TO QUALIFY REDISTRICTING REFORM INITIATIVE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has now contributed over $1.25 million from his California Dream Team committee to qualify a redistricting reform initiative for the November California ballot. This is about half the money raised by the campaign to date, and much of the rest of the funding was solicited by the former action superstar.
Outgoing Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, never quite able to pass a bill as promised — with one legislative session ending in sheer Marx Brothers fashion with a bill passed by the state Senate, which Nunez said he supported, mysteriously getting lost in the shuffle between the two legislative houses — says he will put together a competing initiative to oppose this one, which is backed by political reform groups such as Common Cause and the League of Women Voters. It’s unclear how likely that is, as Nunez leaves the speakership on May 13th, replaced by new Speaker Karen Bass.
Schwarzenegger aides won’t say how much money he raised last Thursday in Manhattan at events sponsored by two billionaires, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Ronald Perelman. The proceeds were slated to go to the California Dream Team, which Schwarzenegger can use for this initiative, another, or general purpose advocacy.
** COMING TUESDAY — GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA. On Tuesday, it’s “Game Day: Pennsylvania.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s coverage throughout the day, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside the contest state, as usual. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to an extent, mirrored here on NWN. This is a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina Republicans,” “Game Day: South Carolina Democrats,” “Game Day: Florida Republicans,” “Super-Duper Tuesday Special Edition,” “Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday,” “Game Day: Chesapeake Tuesday,” “Game Day: Wisconsin And Hawaii,” “Game Day: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont,” “Game Day:Wyoming,” and “Game Day: Mississippi” packages.
Scrambling to stay in the race, Hillary Clinton just launched this TV ad, with images of Pearl Harbor, the Cold War, and Osama bin Laden. “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Who do you think has what it takes?”
** DRUDGE REPORTS 11-POINT CLINTON PENNSYLVANIA LEAD IN INTERNAL POLLING. CLINTON CAMPAIGN DENIES IT.Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton’s inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania! Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.
A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes. “It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of how much,” a senior campaign source said Monday morning.
When pressed if the dramatic internal polling numbers could somehow be flawed in a state as demographically complex as Pennsylvania, and with new voter registration surging to unseen levels, the campaign insider held firm. “Senator Obama would be wise not to unpack his bags quite yet.”
Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson and new chief strategist Geoff Garin deny the number, saying that someone is trying to set up Clinton in the expectations game. A game they played very well for much of this primary season themselves. Further, they deny that there is any Clinton poll from last night. Typically, however, campaigns do run tracking polls the Sunday night before an election, especially one so critically important to Clinton’s hopes as this one.
** QUINNIPIAC PENNSYLVANIA POLL: CLINTON WITH STEADY LEAD.The Quinnipiac poll of the Pennsylvania primary shows Hillary Clinton with a significant lead over Barack Obama, 51% to 44%. The poll was conducted over the weekend.
White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 – 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 – 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A look at other subgroups shows:
* Women back Clinton 57 – 38 percent, while men are for Obama 53 – 42 percent;
* White Catholics are for Clinton 66 – 29 percent;
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 57 – 41, while older voters back Clinton 54 – 40 percent.
“Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Sen. Obama got off message after his ‘bitter’ remarks and never regained his momentum, giving Sen. Clinton the opening to fight another day in Indiana and North Carolina. She wins in Western Pennsylvania; he wins in the East. She gets Catholics, white women and blue-collar labor vote. He captures men, blacks and college grads – and enough delegates to keep his edge in the number that counts most.”
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in McKeesport and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in Scranton, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Bill Clinton is in Greensburg, Arnold, Pittsburgh, Ebensburg, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
John McCain is in Selma, Boykin, and Thomasville, Alabama.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCAST THIS MORNING. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger attends the Saban Free Clinic dedication ceremony this morning in Los Angeles. This is the renaming of the long-standing Los Angeles Free Clinic in honor of the donation of $10 million from Haim and Cheryl Saban.
The clinic has been in operation for more than 40 years, making it the oldest continuously operating free clinic in the US, serving more than 100,000 patient visits a year. Haim Saban, creator of the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers, was one of the first big-name Democratic contributors to switch to the former action superstar. The event will be webcast live 10:45 AM.
John McCain, launching his week-long tour of the Forgotten
America, says he will unite the country and ignite innovation.
THE MORNING COLUMN
It’s another big week in presidential politics, with Hillary Clinton needing a very big win tomorrow in Pennsylvania over frontrunner Barack Obama to maintain relevance and John McCain trying to show he’s a “different kind of Republican” with his tour of the “Forgotten Parts of America.”
First McCain.
John McCain is doing quite well. He’s ahead of Obama and Clinton in many, though hardly all, polls at a time when the Republican president is near record levels of unpopularity. His party’s far right wing is acceding to the obvious and starting to come on board. Clinton and company show signs of wanting to torpedo Obama into unelectability, though it’s unlikely the Democrats would reward her four years from now with the nomination she was supposed to win so handily this time out.
But for all the ongoing battling between Barack and Hillary, McCain isn’t building much of a lead. Obama, with 1.4 million contributors, mostly on the Internet, has raised three times as much money as McCain. And while last week was dominated in our media by endless talk about such things as small town values and flag pins — driven, naturally, by people who don’t have small town values or wear flag pins — and that’s good for the Republicans, some other things happened that might have more lasting impact.
So McCain’s tour of the Forgotten America — now called the “Time For Action” tour — comes at an important moment. McCain kicks things off today in Selma, Alabama, at the Edmund Pettus Bridge, site of the infamous 1965 incident known as “Bloody Sunday” in which peaceful civil rights marchers were attacked by police with clubs and tear gas. From Selma, says the campaign, “John McCain will travel across the country visiting regions that have been forgotten and left behind by our nation’s elected leaders.”
He’ll tour such places as Alabama’s “Black Belt,” so-called for the color of the earth there, and coincidentally heavily African-American, the old steel town of Youngstown, Ohio, Appalachia, and perhaps New Orleans. McCain wants to show that he is a Republican who can relate to blacks, Latinos, and economically distressed whites.
If Clinton somehow finds a way to overcome Obama’s lead, McCain could, at least on the margin, blunt the usual overwhelming Democratic margins among black voters. Running against Obama, McCain believes he has a shot at a big Latino vote, in part because of his work on the immigration issue that so many conservatives found upsetting. White working class and small town voters are an area of some vulnerability for Obama. Bitter, anyone? And reaching out in this way is reassuring to independent and moderate voters that McCain is not a hardline conservative.
Of course, the Democrats aren’t going to simply allow McCain to cherry pick their constituencies. The Democratic National Committee will dog him every step of the way this week. And he may struggle to show how his economic policies are different from those of the unpopular president. While he’s bashing some corporate titans for greed, the most direct boost in his package for lower and middle income voters is a summertime suspension of the federal gas tax. His middle class tax relief, aside from allowing higher deductions for children, mainly consists of a repeal of the alternative minimum tax. That would mostly benefit people making over $200,000 a year.
Still, symbolism counts for a lot in politics. It will be interesting to see how the Vietnam War hero fares in some places that would certainly not be welcoming to the current occupant of the White House.
Tomorrow night in Pennsylvania, we’ll get a better idea about how much longer the brawl for the Democratic presidential nomination will last. This is probably, due to its older demographics and closed-to-independents primary, the best big state in the country for the Clintons. Hillary needs a very big win there to make any dent in Obama’s lead in earned delegates and the popular vote. Even if she gets that, it’s hard to see her making up much ground elsewhere in the other contests remaining between now and June 3rd, when Montana and South Dakota close out the primary and caucus season.
The Clinton attacks on Obama have done more to drive up her negatives than Obama’s. And her Bosnian Adventure has been more damaging than the Wright Stuff and Bittergate. Hillary’s level of trustworthiness has plummeted, perhaps rendering her unelectable as a result even though the Republicans have not attacked her, concentrating their fire instead on Obama.
If Clinton fails to win big tomorrow in Pennsylvania, look for more big-time Dems to consolidate around Obama. Last Friday was a very telling day, with Southern Democratic icons Sam Nunn and David Boren — the former Georgia senator who ran the Senate Armed Services Committee and the former Oklahoma senator who ran the Senate Intelligence Committee — coming out for Obama. Along with liberal former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, Bill Clinton’s Oxford classmate when they were Rhodes Scholars together 40 years ago. And Hillary Clinton’s Yale Law classmate after that.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Clinton’s lead in Pennnsylvania is based upon rural voters, bowlers, and gun owners. Where there is, of course, a certain overlap. So it might be that if they aren’t for her yet, after the past week, they won’t be. We’ll see on Tuesday.
Bowlers, incidentally, are 24% of the electorate in the closed (i.e., no indies allowed) Pennsylvania Democratic primary electorate. And gun owners comprise 38% of the primary. Personal disclosure: I am a gun owner. I am not a bowler. Though I did get a higher score the first time I went bowling, at age 14, than Barack Obama. Obama’s mistake, having viewed the all-important video, was in assuming that as a good athlete he would automatically be a good bowler. He tried to show style as he rolled his gutter balls, rather than make sure the ball went down the middle to score some points.
And so it goes on a fabulous Sunday, as I contribute to the dumbing down of America.
** COMING TUESDAY — GAME DAY: PENNSYLVANIA. On Tuesday, it’s “Game Day: Pennsylvania.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s coverage throughout the day, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside the contest state, as usual. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to an extent, mirrored here on NWN. This is a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina Republicans,” “Game Day: South Carolina Democrats,” “Game Day: Florida Republicans,” “Super-Duper Tuesday Special Edition,” “Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday,” “Game Day: Chesapeake Tuesday,” “Game Day: Wisconsin And Hawaii,” “Game Day: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont,” “Game Day:Wyoming,” and “Game Day Mississippi” packages.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Reading and Scranton, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in Bethlehem, Johnstown, and University Park, Pennsylvania.
Bill Clinton, who had heart bypass surgery a few years ago, is finally off the trail today.
John McCain is in Washington, D.C. and Selma, Alabama.
Barack Obama addressed 35,000 people last night in Philadelphia,
the largest crowd of the campaign.
SATURDAY REPORTS
** WELCOME TO THE ERA OF PIRATE MEDIA. First we had the activist blogger supporter of Barack Obama, a maxed-out financial contributor to the campaign, admitted to an Obama fundraiser last weekend in San Franciso per a low-level fundraiser for the campaign, who decided to burn the candidate — not that she actually understood the ramifications as she did so — on the Huffington Post. Now we have a recording of a Hillary Clinton rant against the Democratic activist base, also on HuffPo. Purloined from about two months ago.
Pirate Media, indeed.
See below for all, as I find it tedious and irritating.
As Fox Mulder put it: “Trust no one.”
** SCHWARZENEGGER ADDRESS AT YALE CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger keynoted yesterday’s Yale University climate change conference which featured the governors of five American states and the premiers of two Canadian provinces. Later, the former action superstar produced a petition from 18 states, comprising most of the population of the US, pledging prompt action on reducing greenhouse gases.
Schwarzenegger criticized the Bush Administration, predicting a seachange in national policy no matter which party wins the presidency in November (Schwarzenegger is a big John McCain backer whose endorsement was critical to McCain essentially winning the Republican nomination in the California primary, First Lady Maria Shriver is a Barack Obama backer), talked about the issue, and took issue with elements of both right and left for holding back progresss. Here’s what Schwarzenegger said: Thank you very much, President Levin, for the wonderful introduction. And let me just say right off the top: I’m very happy that I’m not the only one with an accent speaking here today. Anyway, it’s great to have you, Dr. Pachauri. Thank you for the wonderful speech. It was really extraordinary.
I want to thank also Governor Jodi Rell for being here today and all the other governors that came and the premier that came down from Canada. We want to thank also Mary Nichols who is the chair of the California Air Resources Board who is with us here today sitting in the front row. Thank you very much. I want to thank Premier Charest for being here from Quebec.
And also we want to thank Professor Dan Esty for being really responsible for organizing this and for having me here today. And he has been a great adviser to our administration for the last four years and so we want to thank you for all your great, great work and for being such a great leader.
And I also want to thank one of our great advisers, environmental advisers, Terry Tamminen, for being here today. I don’t know where Terry is. He’s right here. Terry, get up. It’s really great to be here today with all of you and to be here at Yale. Earlier, I don’t know if you know, but President Levin and I, we created a little bit of action. We went over to the gym and we worked out already. I had no idea that he was that buff, to be honest with you. He bench‑pressed a sophomore, which was really extraordinary.
But anyway, it is great to be here today. And I know that this is an environmental conference, an environmental conference to mark Teddy Roosevelt’s 1908 Yale Governors’ Conference. And it is an extraordinary event here to celebrate this. But even though it’s an environmental conference, I would like to start talking about bodybuilding. See how everyone is waking up now? I like that. The reason is because there is something in common, the image that bodybuilding had and the image that environmentalists have. In the old days when I came over here 40 years ago to America, people worked out with weights but they were embarrassed to admit it, to talk about bodybuilding, to say they were bodybuilders, they worked out with weights, because they were embarrassed about it. And especially big stars in Hollywood like Kirk Douglas and Clint Eastwood and Charles Bronson and those guys. They would not want to be associated with the dungeons where those weird guys, those fanatics trained. So they always when they were asked, how did you get this body, they would say, well, we were born like this. But then slowly the image changed because a book Pumping Iron came out. And then the movie “Pumping Iron” came out. As a matter of fact, we have the director sitting right here. Where is he? Director George Butler is sitting right here. Give him a big hand.
And that explained the sport a little bit and then all of a sudden we won all the covers of magazines and in newspapers and television and I started promoting the sport all over the United States and all over the world and the sport became more and more popular. And eventually the perception of bodybuilding began to change and today there are gymnasiums everywhere and everywhere you can go to a gymnasium everywhere and normal people will be talking about their abs and their delts and serratus and the six‑pack and all of those kind of things, it’s quite normal. So the sport has arrived.
Now, like bodybuilders, environmentalists were thought also to be kind of weird fanatics. You know, the kind of serious tree huggers and weeping willows. Plus environmentalists were no fun. They were like prohibitionists at a fraternity party and stuff like that.
And for too long the environmental movement was powered by guilt. Now, you know the kind of guilt I’m talking about ‑‑ smoke stacks belching pollution to power our hot tubs and large‑screen TVs, or in my case flying around with a private plane or driving my big Hummers.
Now, it’s too bad that we all can’t live simple lives like Buddhist monks on straw mats. But you know something, it’s not going to happen. Let’s face it, people are not going to give up their energy‑burning plasma TVs. Maybe if the TV or the computer or the cell phone or the appliance would have a little smoke stack on it that shows you how much energy you use or how much greenhouse gas emissions there are, maybe it would make the people feel a little bit more guilty, but I doubt it.
Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t think that any movement has ever made it, has ever made much progress based on guilt. Guilt is passive, it is inhibiting, it’s defensive and the approach just simply doesn’t work.
Successful movements are built on passion. They’re built on confidence. They’re built on Teddy Roosevelt’s bully pulpit. They’re built on critical mass and often they’re built on an element of alarm that galvanizes action.
I believe the environmental movement is switching over from being powered by guilt to being powered by something much more positive, something much more dynamic, something much more capable of bringing about revolutionary change. Its image is also changing from one of hand‑wringing and whining to one that is hip, an image that is cutting edge, forceful and self‑confident and even sexy.
And a big boost is coming, of course, after the election, no matter whether it’s McCain, Obama, or Clinton. But this is something we’re going to talk about a little bit later.
In California we, of course, are doing everything that we can to change the balance of power on the environment. First, let me start with government policy. Now, of course, the big thing is we don’t wait for Washington, because as I’ve always said, Washington is asleep at the wheel.
Now, I don’t want to go into all the details of all the laws that we have passed and all the regulations and all of the things that we have done, but we are ‑‑ I want to mention some of the things, because we are very proud of what we have accomplished. As a matter of fact, when we started, they said you can’t protect the environment and economy at the same time. People said it was impossible. But then when I came into office we started getting to work and we started building the hydrogen highway. And we set aside 25 million acres of pristine lands with the Sierra Nevada Conservancy. And then put in place the Ocean Action Plan that led the nation in cleaning and preserving our coast line. And we also began our Green Building Initiative to make our government buildings more energy efficient by 25 percent by the year 2015. Then we did something very important which was we passed the Million Solar Roof Initiative in order to harness the renewable energy of the sun.
And then there were two things that we have done, two laws that we have passed that got world recognition and that is to the pass the law to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by the year 2020, which is holding back the greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 level and then an additional 80 percent by the year 2050. And then the following year … Thank you. Then the following year we passed and we ordered a cut in the carbon content of transportation fuels, the low carbon fuel standards. Like I said, this gave us world attention.
Now, do I believe that those standards that California sets will solve global warming? No, not at all. What we are doing is basically applying leverage so that at some point the whole environmental thing tilts and shifts. It’s like a see‑saw; it goes up and eventually tips down the other way.
California is, as you know, the seventh largest economy in the world and it is a big state. It is a powerful state and what we do does have consequences. Even though when you look at the globe California is a little spot on that globe, but when it comes to our power of influence, it is the equivalent of a whole continent.
Now, when California passed its Global Warming Act, may I remind you, we were totally alone. There was no one out there doing the same thing. Because as I said, Washington didn’t lead. But we started forming partnerships, partnerships with western states, with northeastern states and with Canadian provinces and with European nations. As a matter of fact, with all European nations. And then 600 American cities have signed on to be part of Kyoto treaty. So America has to lead and we are doing so even without Washington. Thank you.
Now, things are going really well and there’s great progress being made, but not everything goes smoothly. There are stumbling blocks along the way. Like for instance a year or so ago there was a billboard in Michigan that accused me of costing the car industry $85 billion because of our new emission standards. The billboard said: “Arnold to Michigan, drop dead.” But that’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is: “Arnold to Michigan, get off your butt.” That’s what I’m saying.
As a matter of fact, California may be doing more to save the U.S. auto industry than anyone else because we are pushing them to change, so that if they want to sell their cars in the Golden State, they should change the technology. But government by itself cannot get us where we need to go. I’m a big believer in American technology and I think that technology is what eventually will save Detroit and will save the environment.
We have seen over and over people talking about how bad the big jets are and how bad the big cars are, but that’s not where the action is, what the size of something is. The action is in technology.
A perfect example is, for instance, we in California have a car company called Tesla Motors. Well, the Tesla Roadster is 100 percent electric. This car goes from 0 to 60 in four seconds and it drives 140 miles an hour. As a matter of fact, President Levin, you need to have one of those cars, I tell you, because the girls will go crazy when they see you in this car. I know you will be excited about that. Anyway, the Tesla Roadster goes 250 miles on a charge and then it only takes 3 1/2 hours to charge it up.
Now, of course, there is a downside, because the first version of that car will cost $100,000. But the second one will come down to $80,000 and the third version will be $50,000. So economics tells you where this is heading. It’s just like with the cell phones. Twenty years ago I bought a cell phone which was kind of a radio phone and it cost $1600. Then eventually it went down to $1000, to $500 and the last phone I bought for my daughter was only $90. So today cell phones are everywhere because of the cost coming down. And the same thing will happen with the environmental technologies. But government, as I said, cannot do it all, but government can give a push by setting the standards.
So California is giving the nation and the world a push. And this is why U.N. Secretary‑General Ban Ki‑moon came to me a year ago and asked me to do a keynote speech at the United Nations in order to talk there about what California is doing and to give the rest of the world a push, because there were 190 some countries sitting there and we tried to inspire them to go in the same direction as California is.
Now, of course, beyond government policy a second factor is economics. California is the leading edge of what I call the environmental economy, which is green, clean technology. Right now in California’s university labs, corporate research parks, even in strip mall offices something very exciting is happening. The nation’s brightest scientists and the smartest venture capitalists are racing, racing to find new technologies for alternative energy. Now, this is a race that is literally fueled by billions and billions of dollars. When it comes to developing green tech in California, everyone is drinking Red Bull, I can tell you that. Even the most optimistic forecasters say that we only have 40 or 50 years of oil left. As a matter of fact, with the thirst that we see in India, that India has and China has, I think those years are even less.
So there is a huge pressure, besides global warming, to push in a direction of finding new sources of energy. So capitalism, the long alleged enemy of the environment, is today giving new life to the environmental movement. In fact, the environmental cause would be unwinnable without capitalism and the technology it will provide.
As a matter of fact, the head of PG&E, California’s largest utility, says that the energy industry is on the brink of a revolution. General Electric, based right here in Connecticut, sold its plastic business because it saw more potential for growth and profit in environmental goods and services.
So you can see the shift is happening. And the shift is not only happening here in America; we see it all over the world. I saw the other day that a leading German consulting firm predicted that by the end of the next decade more people will be employed in Germany’s green, clean technology industry than in the auto industry. So as you can see, this is not a fairytale. We have had the industrial revolution, the technological revolution, the global revolution and next is the environmental revolution. Now, I see … Now, I see some people looking at me funny and saying, what happened to the sexual revolution? Well, we’re going to talk about that the next time I come here, I promise you.
So anyway, the third thing that I want to mention is the attitude of the public, the politicians and also the special interests. The geopolitics of global climate change has been deadlocked. We all know that. The U.S. says that China and India should be covered by carbon limits and China and India say that we should go first because we are the biggest polluters in the world. But I think the deadlock is about to be broken. President McCain, President Obama, President Clinton I think will all shift this country into a much higher gear when it comes to climate change. As a matter of fact, I’m very happy to say that all three candidates will be great for the environment. So things will immediately pick up, pick up speed after the Inauguration Day, I know that for sure.
But let me tell you something that will surprise you. I don’t know if many of you know, but I’m sure some of you do know the cable TV show called “Myth Busters.” You know that show? It’s two funny, weird guys who go around trying to see if various different myths are actually true, like dropping from a hundred feet into the water, does it have the same impact as dropping by a hundred feet on the concrete or cement. Or if you drop a penny from the Empire State Building and it hits below someone on the head, does the penny really go through someone’s skull. That’s the kind of crazy things that they try to prove. And I love that dummy that they’re using. I mean, he is really getting beaten up. He should actually go into politics, that’s what I suggest.
Well, I’ve got a myth for those guys to investigate, because we hear all the time that businesses and Republicans are the obstacle to progress on renewable energy and on greenhouse gases while the environmental activists and Democrats are absolutely perfect and create no obstacle at all. Well, I say this is a myth.
First, major companies like DuPont and G.E. and Wal‑Mart and BP are convinced of the need for change and mainstream Republicans are finally coming around, too. They realize that green, clean technology creates jobs, extra revenues and stimulates the economy. But the important point I want to make is that environmental activists and Democrats many times are just as much an obstacle in moving forward. Rhetorically, of course, they love to talk about renewable energy and geothermal and wind all those kind of things. But many times we have seen they are trying to slow down the approval process. It’s kind of a schizophrenic behavior. They say that we want renewable energy but we don’t want you to put it anywhere, we don’t want you to use it.
One energy expert the other day said that the California Mojave desert which is a vast space with thousands of square miles is one of the best spots on planet earth for solar power plants. Pacific Gas & Electric wants to put three huge solar plants right there. And the whole world ‑‑ the Germans, the French, the Canadians, the Japanese ‑‑ they all want to come out to California and put solar power plants in the Mojave desert and in other places. The only thing is that the problem is getting that new energy to the power grid because of environmental hurdles.
San Diego Gas & Electric wants to develop solar geothermal fields in Imperial Valley and build 150 miles of transmission lines to go and take this power right into San Diego, but it faces opposition even though it would replace an old carbon‑based power plant.
So the point I’m making is it’s not just businesses that have slowed things down, it’s not just Republicans that have slowed things down, it’s also Democrats and also environmental activists sometimes that slow things down.
And even my own agency that I’m supposed to be the head of and the boss of I found out is slowing things down. Now, this gets very complicated, I tell you. For example, our Department of Fish and Game is slowing approval of a solar facility in Victorville. It’s because of an endangered squirrel, an endangered squirrel which has never been seen on that land where they’re supposed to build the solar plants. But if such a squirrel were around, this is the kind of area that it would like, they say.
Now, the department wants the power company to buy three acres of land to protect these little creatures for every acre of solar land that is being used so that the squirrel could be saved if it exists. So a squirrel that may not exist is holding up environmental progress on a larger and more pressing fight against global warming. What they have here is a case of environmental regulations holding up environmental progress. I don’t know whether this is ironic or absurd. But, I mean, if we cannot put solar power plants in the Mojave Desert, I don’t know where the hell we can put it.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the real world. We have to make some trade‑offs. I think both the environmental activists and their opponents cannot let “perfect” become the enemy of “possible,” because the fact of the matter is nothing is perfect. Solar still needs transmission lines. Battery electric cars still need chemicals in the batteries and electricity to recharge them. Hydrogen cars still need a fuel currently made largely from natural gas. Nuclear power, which is very clean, still has waste that must be stored somewhere. Biofuels from corn‑based ethanol and palm oil still needs to be controlled so we don’t have deforestation all over the world.
So as one of my environmental friends and advisers said: There are no silver bullets, only silver buckshot. We need to find creative ways to overcome those obstacles. There’s no two ways about it. Neither business nor environmentalists nor Republicans nor Democrats can be set in their ways. I suggest to them: Relax, exhale, just exhale and relax and let things move forward.
What is so great about this conference here, for instance, is there are a lot of young people and I’ve always found that young people are more open to new ways of thinking. So I urge you to continue to be open‑minded on our environment. Do not dismiss or do not accept an idea because it has a Republican label or a Democratic label or a conservative label or a liberal label. Think for yourself. This is especially true on environment. So I have great faith in your ability to find new answers and to find new approaches. Don’t accept what the old people say. Don’t accept the old ways. Don’t accept the old ways or the old politics of Democrats and Republicans. Stir things up. Be fresh and new the way you look at things. I believe in what you can accomplish.
Now, a lot of people are pessimistic about the environmental problems. And yes, there are a lot of obstacles. But I am optimistic. I’m very optimistic. Earlier I mentioned that one of the things that propels a successful movement is when it reaches critical mass.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, you can feel the big things moving. You can feel the big things coming together. You can feel the momentum. I say, do not be down‑hearted about the environment. Every day I see what is happening in California and I tell you, my fellow environmentalists, things are about to move our way. Thank you very much for having me here. And thank you for your hospitality. Thank you.
“She’s taken more money from Washington lobbyists than any other candidate in this race, even John McCain, because she says that lobbyists represent ‘real Americans,’” Obama said. “She’s taken a different position at different times on issues as fundamental as trade and even war, to suit the politics of the moment. And in the last few months, she’s launched what her campaign calls a kitchen-sink strategy of negative attacks, which she defends as telling us that this is what the Republicans will do. She says that’s how the game is played, and she can play that game back.”
“Well, I’m not running for president to play the same old Washington game,” Obama declared, “I’m running to end the game-playing.”
Obama’s rally last night with 35,000 broke the previous mark for this campaign set last December in South Carolina when Obama appeared with Oprah Winfrey before 30,000 at the University of South Carolina.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Wynnewood, Paoli, Downingtown, Lancaster, and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in California and McKeesport, Pennsylvania.
Bill Clinton is in Wilkes-Barre, Meadville, Sharon, Beaver Falls, Waynesburg, Pennsylvania.
John McCain is off the trail in advance of his Forgotten America tour next week.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Clinton, in remarks at an undisclosed private fundraiser sometime after February 5th’s Super Tuesday, blames the party’s “activist base” for many of her defeats.
“We have been less successful in caucuses because it brings out the activist base of the Democratic Party. MoveOn didn’t even want us to go into Afghanistan. I mean, that’s what we’re dealing with. And you know they turn out in great numbers. And they are very driven by their view of our positions, and it’s primarily national security and foreign policy that drives them. I don’t agree with them. They know I don’t agree with them. So they flood into these caucuses and dominate them and really intimidate people who actually show up to support me.”
Incidentally, it is not my impression that Obama has been winning most of the caucuses because of MoveOn.org, much less folks who didn’t want to go into Afghanistan to take down the Taliban after 9/11. Texas, for example, where Obama won big, had a record 1.1 million people participating in the Democratic caucuses.
MoveOn, incidentally, denies Clinton’s closed-door charge that it opposed the war in Afghanistan.
This poll was taken the night of the controversial ABC debate in Philly, and the following day.
Key takeaways: Who is most electable among Democrats? Obama 55%, Clinton 33%. Does the candidate share your values? Obama 53%, Clinton 47%, John McCain 45%. Is the candidate honest and trustworthy? Obama and McCain both score 61% yes on trustworthiness. Clinton scores 51% no on trustworthiness.
Hillary’s Bosnian Adventure was much more damaging than Obama’s Bittergate and the Wright Stuff.
In case you were wondering why the McCain campaign, the Republican Party, and much of the conservative infosphere did not jump on Clinton for her sniper fire fantasies, but jumped all over Obama for Bittergate and the Wright Stuff …
Cindy McCain, or, actually, Cindy Hensley McCain, is chairwoman of Hensley & Co., headquartered in Phoenix. Hensley & Co., founded by Cindy’s late father, Jim Hensley, is one of the largest Anheuser & Busch beer wholesalers and distributors in America, and one of the largest privately held companies in Arizona. Cindy McCain is not releasing her tax returns.
Bottom line. The bulk of the McCain wealth stems from Cindy’s role with Hensley & Co. The bulk of the Clinton wealth stems from Bill’s post-presidential lectures, consulting, and books. The bulk of the Obama wealth stems from Barack’s books.
** OIL PRICE HITS NEW RECORDS — UP $7 PER BARREL THIS WEEK. Crude hit a new trading record of $117 per barrel today and a new closing record of $116.69 per barrel. The upward spike came after Nigerian rebels bombed a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell. The price had already been propped up by the dollar trading at record lows against the euro and a huge risk premium built into the price by ongoing Middle Eastern crises.
I was already paying $4 a gallon for gas before this.
In this one week, dominated amongst the political chatterers by talk of flag pins, make-up, bowling, candidate age, etc., the price of crude oil has gone up by a whopping seven dollars a barrel.
How much did this issue figure in Wednesday night’s presidential debate? Not at all. I’m sure you’ll get better mileage fueling your vehicles with flag pins.
In other uplifting news, California’s unemployment rate hit 6.2%. This is in part due to the housing crisis and the impact of higher energy costs.
** SOUTHERN DEMOCRATIC POWER BROKERS BACK OBAMA. Former U.S. Senators Sam Nunn of Georgia and David Boren of Oklahoma have just endorsed Barack Obama.
Nunn was chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee in the ’80s and ’90s. Boren was chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee in the ’80s and ’90s. The two will serve on Obama’s national security policy team.
Nunn is an iconic figure in the national security and foreign policy firmament. In his endorsement statement, he said: “America remains the strongest nation in the world, but we can only be successful in tackling our toughest problems if we gain cooperation at home and abroad. Our next president – working across party and economic lines – must restore and strengthen our national purpose, our credibility, our competence and our spirit. We need a president who has the temperament of a leader – a sharp, incisive, strategic mind, a rare capacity for self criticism, and a willingness to hear contrary points of view. Based on my conversations with Senator Obama, reading his book and his speeches and seeing the kind of campaign he has run, I believe that he is our best choice to lead our nation.”
The debate was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Obama did not do well. On the other hand, the debate was something of a dumbed-down farce. In fact, when you consider the huge issues getting short shrift, or no shrift at all, the people running these debates have little to be proud of.
** SCHWARZENEGGER ADDRESSES YALE CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE. Fresh from a speech in Manhattan and two big-money fundraisers for his California Dream Team hosted by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Ronald Perelman, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is today at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut where he will keynote the Yale Conference of Governors on Climate Change.
Following his address, Schwarzenegger, still on the Yale campus, will meet with Quebec Premier Jean Charest to discuss further moves on climate change.
That honor went to Schwarzenegger’s friend Bloomberg, the media billionaire and political independent who seriously explored an independent run for president and is now weighing which candidate he will support.
“I’m looking for a candidate,” said Bloomberg, “who is willing to face reality and say we can’t have everything, and there are costs, and we’ve got to make choices. At least we’ll have an adult in office who can lead and can accomplish something.” The mayor wouldn’t say if the latter was a negative reference to President George W. Bush.
Bloomberg is a key ally of Schwarzenegger on climate change, renewable energy, infrastructure, and redistricting reform, emerging as a big backer of the governor’s initiative drive for the November ballot.
Schwarzenegger said the two parties’ hold on districts in his state reminds him of election results under former Russian President Vladimir Putin, prompting him to try to break the partisan gridlock.
“I sleep with a Democrat every night,” the Republican governor said, referring to his wife, journalist Maria Shriver. “How difficult can it be? I didn’t go to Sacramento and tell Democrats and Republicans they should sleep together. That’s my trip. But the bottom line is, I wanted them to work together.”
Hillary Clinton dismisses criticism of the ABC debate.
Says Reich: I saw the ads…and I was appalled, frankly. I thought it represented the nadir of mean-spirited, negative politics. And also of the politics of distraction, of gotcha politics. It’s the worst of all worlds. We have three terrible traditions that we’ve developed in American campaigns. One is outright meanness and negativity. The second is taking out of context something your opponent said, maybe inartfully, and blowing it up into something your opponent doesn’t possibly believe and doesn’t possibly represent. And third is a kind of tradition of distraction, of getting off the big subject with sideshows that have nothing to do with what matters. And these three aspects of the old politics I’ve seen growing in Hillary’s campaign. And I’ve come to the point, after seeing those ads, where I can’t in good conscience not say out loud what I believe about who should be president. Those ads are nothing but Republicanism. They’re lending legitimacy to a Republican message that’s wrong to begin with, and they harken back to the past 20 years of demagoguery on guns and religion. It’s old politics at its worst — and old Republican politics, not even old Democratic politics. It’s just so deeply cynical.
** WHERE THEY ARE TODAY.
Barack Obama is in Erie, Williamsport, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Hillary Clinton is in Radnor, Pennsylvania and Winston Salem, North Carolina.
Bill Clinton is in Moon Township, Connellsville, Somerset, Fort Washington, Lansdale, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
John McCain is in Washington, D.C.
Vladimir Putin yesterday became chairman of the ruling United
Russia Party. The outgoing president will become prime minister next month.
** HARD POLITICAL REALITIES IN THE REST OF THE WORLD. While two debate moderators who don’t wear flag pins and never served in the military hector a candidate who doesn’t wear a flag pin and never served in the military about why he doesn’t wear a flag pin — meanwhile conveniently ignoring that the other candidates in both parties don’t wear flag pins, either — real stuff is happening elsewhere.
For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday became chairman of the ruling United Russia Party. Next month, when he leaves the presidency to his longtime top aide Dmitry Medvedev — who neither Democratic candidate seemed to know much about, and whose name supposed geopolitical expert Hillary Clinton couldn’t pronounce — Putin will become Russia’s prime minister.
It’s all part of his plan to be Russia’s “national leader,” though he will share some power with the new president.
Meanwhile, the president of the Palestinian Authority went to Moscow this week. Why? Because Moscow is planning to host a Middle East peace conference. Perhaps it will be more meaningful than the failed conference that the US hosted last year at Annapolis.
Is there any coverage of these matters in the US? Of course not.
The 55-year old Putin, incidentally, denies persistent reports that he is divorcing his wife of 25 years to marry a 25-year old rhythm gymnastics star and Playboy model who he had slated as a member of the national parliament.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
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