The flashpoint debate exchange, triggered by Bill and Hillary’s
amusing claim that Obama really likes Reagan Republican ideas.
** QUICK HITS. 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry just sent an impassioned fundraising e-mail to his list of millions of Democrats decrying “Swiftboating” of Barack Obama in the Democratic primaries with phone calls, e-mails, and letters about his purported Islamic fundamentalism. While Kerry, a senior senator now, did not name the Clintons … As expected, Hillary Clinton, in California today, picked up the endorsement of the United Farm Workers. She also got the endorsement of Congressman Joe Baca before heading off to Cesar Chavez High in Arizona to try to counter the female governor’s support of Obama. … John McCain raises a million bucks tonight at a fundraiser in Manhattan, where he picks up the support of former New York Senator Al D’Amato. McCain now leads in New York Republican primary polls. … Mike Huckabee’s campaign is paring back financially, with top aides going without paychecks and no more press charters. He insists he is running hard in Florida and through the February 5th states … The world did not end today on Wall Street, despite yesterday’s global market meltdown and the cold shoulder from investors towards last week’s Bush effort at an economic stimulus. So he’s trying again, with the Democratic Congress. Suddenly, everybody’s for economic stimulus. But the Federal Reserve 0.75% interest rate cut was of much more immediate interest. … The perils of Pauline/rather Rube Goldbergesque Arnold Schwarzenegger/Fabian Nunez universal health care plan suffered a setback today. No, not the oft-predicted federal pre-emption notion, a court decision actually going the other way, but a defection of a needed Democratic vote on a state Senate committee. Citing Obama-like concern about requiring people to buy insurance they can’t afford. Tomorrow is the hearing.
** OSCAR NOMINATIONS. Not a great year for political cinema, 2007. The only explicitly political movie that’s a hit is Charlie Wilson’s War, much discussed on NWN. And this morning it picked up an Academy Award nomination, for Philip Seymour Hoffman’s terrific turn as maverick CIA officer Gust Avrakotos, a pivotal player in the takedown of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
There Will Be Blood, a non-hit which is certainly a politically-tinged drama, about the early days of the California oil boom, picked up a raft of nominations, including for best picture and as best actor for Daniel Day Lewis’s starring role as a wildcat oilman. Michael Moore also earned another Oscar nomination for his documentary on America’s misfiring health care system, Sicko. NWN covered the film’s world premiere.
** TRACKING POLL: OBAMA LEADS IN SOUTH CAROLINA.In a tracking poll last night by Public Policy Polling, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic primary, 44% to 28%. John Edwards trails with 15%. Obama is now taking 70% of the African American vote. Among white voters, however, Obama runs third, with only 17% to Clinton’s 43% and Edwards’ 30%.
Obama continues to campaign today in South Carolina, in advance of the Palmetto State’s Saturday primary, while Hillary is in California to shore up her support among Latinos and other voters.
** FREDHEADS OUT OF THE RACE. Former Senator and Law & Order star Fred Thompson has withdrawn from the Republican presidential race.
“Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.”
After fencing with a run for months, drawing enormous interest from conservative activists and commentators, Thompson pulled an Arnold three-and-a-half-months ago and announced his presidential run on The Tonight Show. That night, I stayed up writing a 2000-word analysis of his performance and prospects, arriving at a rather negative assessment. (This also told me I was taking things a bit too seriously.) Notwithstanding the fact that he is an amiable guy with a great speaking voice, who could have made a terrific political story.
Thompson performed rather diffidently after that, and his numbers began to plunge. He made, as reported here, two major last stands. In Iowa, where he finished tied for a distant third with John McCain. And in South Carolina, a state in which he led two months ago, where he again finished a distant third, this time well behind the winner McCain.
His numbers in Florida, where he also was once in very strong contention, as was the case throughout the South, have dropped to the mid-single digits, so his withdrawal will likely have only a marginal impact. However, it could be very useful with conservatives, as well on the margin in any close race in Florida.
Thompson was damaged not only by a widespread view that his candidacy was lacking in a certain oomph — a potency that many expected given his famous character roles in movies and television — but also by two other factors. First, the rise of Mike Huckabee preempted him with many social conservatives. Second, and this is a factor that also plagues Rudy Giuliani, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran put an end to a drumbeat on the right for war with that troublesome Islamic fundamentalist regime.
Thompson is a personal friend of John McCain, and was a co-chairman of his 2000 presidential campaign. He has not announced any endorsement.
** HILLARY COMES WEST, WORKS THE LATINO VOTE. As reported here yesterday, Hillary Clinton has left South Carolina following last night’s turbulent debate with Barack Obama and will be campaigning in California, where she currently leads but where her campaign is aware that a surge for Obama could occur.
Meanwhile, Obama continues campaigning in South Carolina today, where he leads and where former President Bill Clinton has arrived to keep taking the fight to the freshman Illinois senator.
At 2 PM, Hillary has an economic town hall meeting in the basketball gym of Hartnell Community College in Salinas. She is expected to pick up the endorsement of the Latino-based United Farm Workers union. UFW co-founder Dolores Huerta campaigned for Hillary in Nevada last week.
Tonight, Hillary is doing another town hall meeting on the economy, this time in Laveen, Arizona. The event will be held at Cesar Chavez High School, in case you’re not getting the symbolism. Clinton has a problem in Arizona, for the state’s popular Governor Janet Napolitano is backing Obama for president.
** FLORIDA TRACKING POLL: MCCAIN LEADS ROMNEY. A new tracking poll of the critical Florida Republican presidential primary, set for one week from today, finds John McCain leading Mitt Romney, 29% to 22%. Mike Huckabee third at 17%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 16%. The poll by American Research Group was conducted on Sunday and Monday, and released this morning.
** MEG WHITMAN RETIRES FROM EBAY. Billionaire eBay CEO Meg Whitman is retiring after a decade at the helm of the famed ecommerce/online auction/cyber-marketing giant. What next for her? Not entirely clear. Some Republican strategists have talked her up as a potential Republican candidate for governor, fearing that former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown is too formidable a prospect for any of their current crop of contenders to deal with.
For her part, Whitman, a friend of former Virginia Senator George Allen, is a national finance co-chair of Mitt Romney’s campaign. If he wins the nomination and goes on to win the presidency, she could be in the Cabinet.
** FIELD POLL: HILLARY LEADS IN CALIFORNIA.The new Field Poll of the California Democratic presidential primary shows Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead, 39% to 27%, over Barack Obama, with John Edwards trailing at 10%. Private polling has the margin somewhat lower. In all polling, there is a large undecided vote. This explains why Hillary is campaigning in California today, as I reported yesterday. Ironically, I see that decades-long Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters wrote today that Hillary has the state locked up, and wouldn’t be bothering to campaign here. She and former President Bill Clinton both held rallies and roundtables last week around California.
From poll director Mark Di Camillo: Clinton leads by wide margins among women, Latinos, seniors, non-college graduates, and those with annual households incomes of less than $40,000. Obama is preferred by blacks, college graduates and those with household incomes exceeding $80,000. He runs nearly even with Clinton among liberals, men, and white non-Hispanics.
The poll was taken between January 14th and January 20th, a long time period for presidential primary polling, as much of it may be out of date in the quick-flash pace of this sort of campaigning. The number of respondents was less than 400. Polls like this are fine for state races, where the pace is slower and people form different sorts of impressions. It will be interesting to see where the other public polls — which will do one to three-day tracking runs, released the next morning — are when they turn their attention to the Golden State.
** TRIUMPH. OR NOT. You have to hand it to the Clintons. What other political pair would go into last week’s debate in Las Vegas and reintroduce the Iraq War — one of their greatest areas of vulnerability — as an issue in the Democratic campaign, repositioning a vote to authorize war as a vote for peace? What other political pair would think — on Martin Luther King Day, mind you — to claim in a nationally televised debate, that the first black man with a real chance to become president, and a pretty darn liberal one at that, is really an admirer of Reagan Republican ideas?
Yet there it was. Absurd, but true. Call it daring, call it chutzpah, I see it as an awesome will to power.
Now to the proximate cause of last night’s entertaining, yet frequently appalling, rumble. That would be the claim of Billary — and Obama has finally tumbled to and begun to deal with the fact that he is running against “two for the price of one,” as the old Clinton line from the ’92 campaign had it — that Obama showed in an interview with the Reno Gazette-Journal that he actually likes Reagan Republican ideas. It’s wrong, of course. Obama’s point — and any serious contemporary historian has to agree — is that Ronald Reagan was a transformational figure in American politics in a way that others, even relatively successful presidents such as Clinton I, were not.
While true, it’s a dicey point to make in a hyperpartisan environment. It’s very dangerous to do when confronted with ruthless opponents still acting out of desperation. Never forget that the Clinton hold on national Democratic politics was within an hour or so of ending on January 8th. Many of their friends were in absolute panic. Even Bill Clinton didn’t know how it would go. It was only through the employment of a kitchen sink of techniques at the end of the New Hampshire campaign — most notably, the descent of Bill Clinton from the role of global statesman to that of attack dog-in-chief — that a stunning end to the Restoration was averted.
There’s much to say about the ins and outs of policy — frequently employed, frankly, as a prop in politics — plus Hillary’s role on the Wal-Mart board and still hidden history as first lady and Obama’s relationship with a Chicago fixer, and all that stuff, as the governor of California would say.
But here’s another big takeaway. The Clintons’ goal, since getting blown out in Iowa and teetering on the precipice of oblivion in New Hampshire, is to muss up the pretty boy. They saw what happened to them in an “Iowa nice” campaign. They couldn’t win, even in a virtually all-white electorate. There are lots of other important goals still secondary to that: Consolidate the women, make Obama the black candidate, win the Latinos (those two are connected), neutralize Iraq, use economic insecurity and harken to ’90s good times to take blue collars from the more cerebral candidate, and so on.
It’s ironic, in that a quarter century ago, Bill Clinton was the pretty boy. Young, charming, funny and friendly, a weather eye ever peeled for the ladies, super-bright if not intellectual, out of office. He decided not to become Jerry Brown’s chief of staff. What it took to get back in the game, to restart the long march to global power, fend off vicious Republican attacks, keep a volatile marriage together, survive his tumultuous presidency and help launch his wife on the path to another presidency … It’s actually a great story, unless you’re quite tired of it, as much of the country is.
Yet I digress. In a sense. The Clintons need to make Obama less special. They’re doing that. He gave at least as good as he got last night against Hillary. She did not come off so hot, nearly snarling at him at one point. Yet he was losing his cool, as well. A little humor, especially at the chutzpah now involved, wouldn’t be a bad idea. And it’s not necessary to answer every attack, just the most obvious ones. But this is all very difficult to do, and everyone on that stage, including John Edwards — who in some ways is the best candidate of the three, particularly if he had not had to move rather far to the left to retain primary relevance — is a very capable figure.
The winner of last night’s Democratic presidential debate? John
McCain leads now in, amazingly, Rudy Giuliani’s New York, and
other big states, but he’s in a major dogfight in Florida, where
this ad is running.
Yet the Democrats can certainly blow this election, which should probably be theirs.
One great thing they have going for them, as the Democratic Party descends into serious infighting on lines of race, gender, generation, and the general psychodrama that surrounds the Clintons, is the Republican Party.
Will they actually nominate their best candidate to run against a Democrat? The only big-time Republican who can credibly defend the Iraq War to a majority audience, who appeals to independents, who can trump Hillary’s claims of experience and make Obama seem a naif? (Although he did actually lose a vodka drinking contest with the former first lady.)
We’ll see.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading below $88 per barrel range on renewed fears of a global economic slowdown and a general stock market meltdown around the world.
Martin Luther King’s famed “I have a dream” speech, on this
national holiday.
** WITH THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEBATE OVER, HILLARY IS HEADING TO … CALIFORNIA. Hillary Clinton will hold an economic town hall meeting tomorrow in the Latino-heavy Salinas Valley southeast of the San Francisco Bay Area.
I have to prep for an hour on a live national radio show, the Jim Bohannon Show out of Washington. Suffice it to say the obvious for the moment here. That was a rock ‘em, sock ‘em debate, with Obama unloading on Hillary — after she inaccurately claimed he had praised Reagan Republican ideas — for being “a corporate lawyer on the board of Wal-Mart” while he was organizing in Chicago, and she charged him with “working for a slumlord, your contributor, Rezko.”
Meanwhile, Hillary is coming to California. She will spend the next two days in California, New Mexico, and New Jersey while her husband, former President Bill Clinton — continuing the now familiar tag-team routine — arrives in South Carolina to try to hold down the fort for his wife.
Which is of course a very intriguing strategic move. She’ll be back in South Carolina just two days before the Saturday primary.
John Edwards, struggling for a rationale to stay in the race, looked pretty good tonight. But it is clearly a two-person race.
** QUICK HITS. Another national holiday, another political debate … sigh. So Rudy Giuliani, trying to jump-start his campaign in Florida, picked up a big police union endorsement today in the Sunshine State. But that boost came along with the news that he now trails John McCain in not one — as reported here early this morning — but three new polls of his home state New York primary. … Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both running TV ads now on California cable TV. Obama’s ad is new, introducing him as a Harvard Law Review ace who went into gritty community organizing and learned to get things done across political lines. Hillary’s ad is not new. … As the various camps get ready for tonight’s critical South Carolina Democratic debate, the California Clinton campaign continues a not a new generation of leadership theme, showcasing state NAACP head Alice Huffman — a fixture in every establishment Democratic campaign that comes to mind since before the invention of the Macintosh — at a campaign debate watching event. … Former President Bill Clinton, who in retrospect is probably responsible for his wife’s narrow victory in New Hampshire, came under fire today from leading Democrats. The House majority whip told him to “chill,” and the mayor of Atlanta, with Clinton sitting behind her, derided his characterization of Obama’s anti-Iraq War politics as a “fairy tale.” But you can’t argue with the results, and the guy clearly is not afraid to look bad or have people mad at him.
** GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHIVERS PLUNGE MARKETS AND OIL. With deep fears of a global economic slowdown, much of it centered in the US, acting as the spur the price of crude oil dropped to a five-week low of $88.50 per barrel.
On top of that, stock markets around the world dropped very sharply. The DAX market (Germany), FTSE-100 (United Kingdom) and Nikkei 225 (Japan) plunged by 7.16%, 5.48%, and 3.86%, respectively.
The US markets are closed today on account of the Martin Luther King holiday.
The oil market in particular, as NWN readers know, has been whipsawed for much of the last year by two opposing factors. A big risk premium, caused by rolling and roiling geopolitical crisies. And a big economic deflater, caused by fear of diminished economic activity.
It’s like alternating between a swig of Stolichnaya and a swig of Jolt Cola.
** NEW YORK POLL: MCCAIN TAKES LEAD OVER GIULIANI. In a big reversal, the new Siena College poll of February 5th’s New York Republican primary shows John McCain taking the lead over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. It’s McCain 36%, Giuliani 24%, and Mitt Romney 10%. Giuliani led in his home state until recently.
** DEMOCRATIC DEBATE TONIGHT. The three remaining Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, debate tonight in a two-hour event live from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, the debate airs on CNN starting at 5 PM Pacific time.
Obama needs a strong performance tonight heading into Saturday’s South Carolina primary, and especially needs to deal with the fact that he is now obviously running not only against the former first lady, but the former president as well. Hillary needs another of her typically assured performances. Edwards needs to demonstrate why he’s still in the race.
** ROMNEY TAKES SLIGHT FLORIDA LEAD IN NEW POLL; MCCAIN LEADS NATIONALLY.Mitt Romney, who has been advertising heavily in Florida, has taken a slim lead over John McCain in the latest Rasmussen tracking robopoll. It’s Romney 25%, McCain 20%, Rudy Giuliani 19%, Mike Huckabee 13%, and Fred Thompson 12%. It seems that Romney’s advertising has cut into Huckabee, who actually led in Florida last month.
Meanwhile, McCain has the lead nationally, as well as in California and New Jersey, formerly Giuliani strongholds, both of which vote on February 5th.
** CLINTON CALIFORNIA CAMPAIGN TAKES A BREAK TO HONOR M.L.K. Clinton state director Ace Smith announced that the campaign will take a respite for at least part of today in honor of the memory of Martin Luther King.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, alternately fighting labor unions
and the greenhouse effect, is proving quite the celebrity pol with
former supermodel Carla Bruni.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The presidential campaign’s torrid pace dips, just a bit, this week, as there is only one contest, and that’s on Saturday with the South Carolina Democratic primary, now must win for Barack Obama. The Republicans will focus on Florida, where the primary is next week. On Thursday, the remaining Republicans debate in Boca Raton.
While John McCain cleared a big hurdle winning the historically key South Carolina primary on Saturday, he’s hardly out of the woods. Now leading in the national polls, McCain will spend a million dollars today on Florida TV ads. It’s jump ball in the Sunshine State, with McCain, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney all bunched together.
Michigan winner Romney got no bump in the polls from last Tuesday’s win, and, running a distant fourth in South Carolina, focused instead on the lightly contested Nevada Republican caucuses. He won, with Ron Paul a distant second, but no one else campaigned there, and barely a third as many Republicans participated in Nevada as did so on the Democratic side.
Republican turnout in South Carolina, despite the very spirited contest amidst a bright national spotlight, was down dramatically from 2000, when McCain was beaten by George W. Bush. 400,000 voted on Saturday, but nearly 600,000 voted in 2000.
This week, we’ll get a good idea about how successful former frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s controversial strategy can be. After fading in New Hampshire, where he once led, and stepping away from that contest, Giuliani has staked his entire campaign on Florida. Now he must contest with a revived McCain, the only candidate who’s won in both the North and the South, for national security voters and moderates.
We’ll also see how well Mitt Romney plays. After failing with his longstanding plan to emerge as the frontrunner by winning Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney won big in Michigan, where his father was a popular governor and car company CEO, by pledging to revitalize the auto industry. But he lost badly in the first Southern test in South Carolina, and Florida will be a crucial test of his ability to win Southern votes, key for any Republican who hopes to win the White House.
Florida is also a big test for Mike Huckabee. South Carolina has a huge evangelical vote, which McCain actually cut into. And Fred Thompson, with his spirited third place finish, may have prevented Huckabee from winning. Can the charming ex-Arkansas governor expand his vote beyond his Christian fundamentalist base?
If McCain wins Florida, he may be on his way to the nomination, though the free-spending Romney will keep fighting. If he loses, it’s back to a muddle.
Hillary Clinton celebrates her Nevada win.
Tonight, the Democrats debate in South Carolina.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton now has a slight but real edge coming out of Nevada. Here is what we know. Hillary Clinton won narrowly in the overall vote among Nevada Democrats, thanks to a huge edge among Latinos as they contemplated voting for a black man. But she lost amongst the overall tally of national convention delegates, as rural Nevada whites proved more than ready to vote for a black guy.
Obama needs to solve the chronic black/brown divide in the Democratic Party. Part of Hillary’s edge with the Latino vote in Nevada is due to strong campaigning. She has strong Latino backers, such as LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, and United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta. But part of her edge seems due to racial politics.
The Nevada Democratic caucuses saw a massive turnout of participants, nearly 120,000, which is well over even what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had hoped for. “Today’s caucus was a tremendous success,” said the pumped up, usually phlegmatic Nevadan. “Well over 100,000 Nevadans got out and made their voices heard, including 69 in my hometown of Searchlight.”
Clinton beat Obama by nearly 3 to 1 among Latinos. Which was quite interesting, in that Obama was backed by two potent unions with many Latino members, the culinary workers and the service employees. But the turnout at the at-large caucus sites, casinos along the Las Vegas Strip, which were set up to allow lower-income casino workers to participate while working a busy holiday weekend — this is Martin Luther King Day weekend in Vegas, a big-time holiday there — was less than expected. And Clinton confounded expectations, essentially matching Obama along the Vegas Strip and sweeping to a big win in the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
This more than matched Obama’s wins in most of Nevada’s other counties. Hillary’s ability to win big among Latinos, even when many of their leaders, such as in the unions I mentioned, went with Obama, raises very interesting questions about the internal racial politics of the Democratic Party as the first very serious black candidate for president continues his closely fought contest with the former first lady. Reports from around the state indicate that the big labor forces backing Obama found it tough to deliver for him. At issue, Latino workers pushed to vote for an African American. And so the race issue reared its head in yet another way this year.
If Obama can’t do much better with Latino voters, he won’t be able to win the California primary, the biggest prize on February 5th. Hillary leads here and has a strong organization, but independents voters — who generally favor Obama — are shut out of the Republican primary and could give him a big boost.
He has time to rethink his approach on Latinos, since this week’s contest, the Saturday primary in Souoth Carolina, doesn’t have many Latinos. Perhaps half the vote will be African American, and there Obama has overtaken the Clintons’ longstanding edge. Hillary led for a long time in South Carolina, but now Obama has the lead. He needs a sizable win to stay in the race with the formidable Clinton political machine.
Speaking of the Clintons, another fascinating thing to watch this week will be the behavior of the former president. He’s gotten very aggressive in promoting his wife’s candidacy, attacking Obama personally, getting visibly upset with a TV reporter questioning him about the lawsuit he backed to block those at-large caucuses on the Las Vegas Strip.
Unfortunately, I missed President Clinton’s performance on Saturday when he personally campaigned inside a caucus site at the Mirage on the Vegas Strip. I wish I could have beamed over there to see it.
Old friend and colleague Marc Cooper was there, and reports that Clinton, accompanied by longtime fundraising honcho Terry McAuliffe, the ex-Democratic national chairman, aggressively buttonholed the various maids, bellhops, dancers and dealers gathering to cast their caucus votes. Some were apparently intimidated.
Clinton is certainly behaving in an unusual way for a former president of the United States. I don’t remember former President Bush attacking John McCain when his son was running in 2000. But politics ain’t beanbag, and its safe to say that Bill Clinton really does want Hillary to win. …
What does Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger do in the presidential race? I know him, have not talked with him about it, but my guess is he goes with John McCain.
You may recall that I predicted in 2002 that he would be the next governor of California. Which most thought was a joke. And in 2003, was the only political writer who said that Schwarzenegger — then busy opening one of the biggest action movies of all time, Terminator 3 — fully intended to run for governor in the now classic recall campaign. Others reported quite definitively that he would not run.
As I mentioned, I have not spoken with Schwarzenegger on this topic. Nor have I spoken with his top aides and advisors on this topic.
But my opinion is that he will support John McCain. Which could be a game changer on February 5th. He obviously likes his “soul mate,” New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, as you’ve seen many times in NWN videos. But how many independents have won the presidency? That would be, zero.
Why McCain? Well, in my view, and it is only my view, mind you, amongst the Republicans, Schwarzenegger likes two candidates in the race. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. He probably gets a kick out of Mike Huckabee, but does actually believe in evolution. So that would be that.
Giuliani, well, one of his top campaign aides, Katie Levinson, is with Giuliani. But the former New York mayor, who campaigned for Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall, with a memorable joint rally in Bakersfield, has been a decided underperformer to date.
And Giuliani is not a vet. Schwarzenegger has a deep respect for veterans. He’s a vet himself. Of the, um, Austrian Army. It’s one of the reasons why he likes his predecessor, Gray Davis. The two are now friends.
But while Davis has a distinguished Vietnam War record, there are few people in America with better records than John McCain. Merely surviving what McCain went through in Vietnam is an extraordinary accomplishment. The fact that he is running around on the planet as a vital human being is even more amazing.
McCain has great simpatico with Schwarzenegger. They were going to do a candidate forum last month in New Hampshire on climate change, with a guy named Al Gore, till they noticed the other Republicans didn’t want to do it.
And McCain was right about Iraq. Schwarzenegger went to Iraq just before he announced for governor, visiting the troops and the various bases. He told me from Baghdad that it looked okay, but it would be easy to get wrong.
McCain was right about how it went wrong. Donald Rumsfeld, in his zeal to prove the theory of the “Revolution in Military Affairs,” set up America for a fast win of the war and a long loss of the peace.
The other correct view of Iraq, in my opinion, is that of Barack Obama. More trouble than it’s worth, so don’t do it. Why Obama did not drive this point home in his Las Vegas debate a few nights ago with Hillary Clinton is beyond me, since it is Exhibit A of his argument that his judgment is superior to her purported experience.
Incidentally, a word about the video fronting this column. It is from the soon to open new Sylvester Stallone movie. Stallone, like Harrison Ford, with the eagerly anticipated next Indiana Jones movie, and Bruce Willis, with last year’s latest, and very well done, installment of the Die Hard series, is showing that there is still action hero life for, let’s say, older guys.
Is this in the Schwarzenegger future? He could run for the U.S. Senate against Barbara Boxer — who represented my parents’ district on the Marin County Board of Supervisors, which is how I first met her as a kid when she knocked on our front door — and probably win.
But what would be his rationale? She’s not good enough on climate change? She chairs the Senate committee on the environment. She’s too dovish in general? Probably so. But she is a very nice person beneath the fiery rhetoric, and lotsa luck making that case in California. Where people are generally sick of anything associated with George W. Bush’s foreign policies.
And if you are a senator, even a celebrity senator, like Uncle Bobby, you’re one of a hundred, worrying about making subcommittee meetings. If you figure how to work the system, a la Charlie Wilson, a mere congressman, you can change history, as we now know. But that’s kind of iffy.
So for Schwarzenegger. Big-time foundation to rival and surpass Bill Clinton? A return to movies?
Sly Stallone, the guy in the video on the top of the NWN front page, was notoriously derided by Schwarzenegger in a Playboy feature interview as the former Mr. Universe was ascending the action star ranks. “What is with this white fur coat he is always wearing?,” asked Schwarzenegger.
Yet on election night 2006, at the fabulous Beverly Hilton Hotel, there was Sly Stallone in Schwarzenegger’s private suite as Arnold won his second landslide victory in the Golden State. Stallone was not around poolside with Schwarzenegger late on that victory night. But their friendship was obviously on.
So, here is what we know. Hillary Clinton won narrowly in the overall vote among Nevada Democrats, thanks to a huge edge among Latinos as they contemplated voting for a black man. But she lost amongst the overall tally of national convention delegates, as rural Nevada whites proved more than ready to vote for a black guy.
Obama needs to solve the chronic black/brown divide in the Democratic Party which the Clintons have succeeded in stirring up once again.
Nevada Democrats turned out at three times the rate as Nevada Republicans, who picked Mitt Romney over Silver State runner-up Ron Paul, in a contest in which no other major candidate bothered to campaign other than Romney.
In the key Republican contest of the day, the South Carolina primary — which since Ronald Reagan showed the way in 1980 has proved a pathway to the party’s presidential nomination — Vietnam War hero John McCain emerged victorious over the evangelical populist Mike Huckabee. No one else was close, including Romney, Fred Thompson, and the faded former frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.
Giuliani, the hero of 9/11 as New York’s mayor at the time, has set up winter camp in Florida for the past few weeks, after spending millions on TV advertising in New Hampshire and subsequently falling back late last year.
His plan is to take advantage of chaos in the Republican Party, to win Florida and then move into the other big states, such as California, the ultimate prize, on February 5th. But the party may not now be in chaos.
I think that a major endorsement is in the works which could flummox the plans of Giuliani and other candidates.
6:20 pm — McCain Projected South Carolina Winner, Drops $1 Million on Florida TV Tomorrow
John McCain has finally been projected the winner in South Carolina by AP.
Top McCain sources tell me he is about to go up with one million dollars of TV in Florida.
Where, at the moment, he leads by two points.
5:40 pm — Waiting On South Carolina, A Few Thoughts
We’re waiting on the big South Carolina Republican primary results. Since Ronald Reagan took SC in 1980, the Palmetto State’s primary has been a pathway to the Republican presidential nomination.
With 38% of the vote in, John McCain continues to hold a 5-point lead over Mike Huckabee.
And I will tell you now that McCain was up by 4 points in the media exit polls.
Which is not quite enough for the networks to call the race.
Meanwhile, in Nevada, a somewhat blurry picture. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by about 5 points in a record caucus turnout. But Obama appears to have edged her in the race for national convention delegates.
The first result is because Clinton blitzed Obama with urban Latinos.
The second result is because Obama beat Clinton among rural whites.
Go figure.
Actually, this dynamic, predicted by an old friend of mine a few days ago, is a longstanding pattern in Democratic politics.
Last week saw the Clintons going after Obama for pushing Martin Luther King as the exemplar of racial progress in America, rather than Lyndon Johnson, the president that Hillary, somewhat amazingly, seems to identify with.
Everyone was focused on white/black racial issues. But the Clintons succeeded, instead, in a bank shot. Stirring up the historical antipathy between Latinos and blacks.
Obama now needs to solve the historic black/brown divide as California and other Western states come up. Or there is no way for him to win.
3:50 PM — Hold The Phone, Obama Won More Nevada Delegates
I’m on a media conference call now with the Obama campaign leadership in which the Associated Press reporter just acknowledged that, contrary to his earlier story, Barack Obama has probably won more delegates in Nevada than Hillary Clinton!
It’s complex, but basically the answer is that Obama swept rural Nevada. Which, oddly enough, is mostly white.
It looks now like there will be 13 Nevada delegates to the Democratic National Convention won by Obama, and 12 delegates won by Hillary.
3:00 pm PST — McCain Looking Pretty Good in South Carolina
It’s always dicey to talk about media exit polls — especially when they are wrong, as with Barack Obama’s “victory” in New Hampshire — but John McCain is looking pretty good in the South Carolina Republican primary.
Mike Huckabee had a big lead there prior to McCain’s big New Hampshire win. Then McCain went on top, by the high single digits.
Then the attacks came against the Vietnam War hero, and his lead dipped, while Huckabee talked up not only his Christian populism, but also the Confederate flag.
At the moment, however, it doesn’t look like Huckabee’s late surge will be enough.
2:55 pm PST — Record Nevada Turnout, Hillary Wins Big With Latinos
Today’s Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses saw a massive turnout of participants, nearly 120,000, which is well over even what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had hoped for.
“Today’s caucus was a tremendous success,” said the pumped up, usually phlegmatic Nevadan. “Well over 100,000 Nevadans got out and made their voices heard, including 69 in my hometown of Searchlight.”
And Hillary Clinton won a 5-point victory over Barack Obama. Her winning edge?
Latino voters.
Clinton beat Obama by 3 to 1 among Latinos.
Which was quite interesting, in that Obama was backed by two potent unions with many Latino members, the culinary workers and the service employees.
But the turnout at the at-large caucus sites, casinos along the Las Vegas Strip, which were set up to allow lower-income casino workers to participate while working a busy holiday weekend — this is Martin Luther King Day weekend in Vegas, a big-time holiday there — was less than expected.
And Clinton confounded expectations, essentially matching Obama along the Vegas Strip and sweeping to a big win in the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
This more than matched Obama’s wins in most of Nevada’s other counties.
Hillary’s ability to win big among Latinos, even when many of their leaders, such as in the unions I mentioned, went with Obama, raises very interesting questions about the internal racial politics of the Democratic Party as the first very serious black candidate for president continues his closely fought contest with the former first lady.
1:28 pm PST — Hillary Headed for Narrow Nevada Victory
Hillary Clinton is headed for a relatively narrow win the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses over Barack Obama. Reports from around the state indicate that the big labor forces backing Obama found it tough to deliver for him.
At issue, Latino workers pushed to vote for an African American.
And so the race issue rears its head in yet another way this year.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney wins in a race uncontested by the other candidates, who see the real fight today in the historically determinative South Carolina Republican presdidential primary, where John McCain and Mike Huckabee are locked in a tight race.
11:57 am PDT — Vegas Strip Workers Defy Failed Lawsuit.
[To watch Nevada Democratic presidential caucus results in near real-time, click on this link]
As this is written, low-income workers are streaming to unique voting places, in defiance of the wishes of the most recent former President and First Lady of the United States.
Bellhops, cashiers, maids, dancers, the whole panoply of workers who make the casino economy of Las Vegas — America’s fastest-growing big city — go, are gathering now for their Democratic presidential caucuses at casino locations up and down the Las Vegas Strip. As they do so, they do it in defiance of former President Bill Clinton, who vociferously backed a failed lawsuit to block their ability to vote today.
A federal court ruled Thursday that Nevada’s Democratic caucuses go forward as planned. This includes the at-large caucuses on the Vegas Strip, which are easier for casino workers to participate in.
A Clinton ally at the helm of the state teachers union, without consulting with Las Vegas teachers union colleagues, filed suit to block the Vegas Strip caucuses. Former President Bill Clinton weighed in heatedly on behalf of the lawsuit.
The Clinton campaign agreed to the rules when they were devised last year. But since then, Barack Obama has emerged as a serious threat and the Culinary Workers Union — which backs Obama — represents the casino workers, and is backing Barack Obama. So, as the saying goes, that was then, this is now.
THE MORNING COLUMN
Today is another big day in presidential politics, with the South Carolina Republican primary and the Nevada Democratic caucuses, which I’ll be covering throughout the day with correspondents and contacts in both states. The polls show a tight race in South Carolina between John McCain and Mike Huckabee, with the final tracking poll from last night a dead heat. In Nevada, it’s a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Although in the Silver State, no one really knows how to poll. Will there 9000 votes, as in the 2004 Nevada caucus, won handily by John Kerry? Or will there be 100,000, as in Nevadan Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s arguably wet dream?
Having done and run successful campaigns in Nevada, I will tell you that, no matter what turnout scenario one projects, in a one-on-one race, Obama beats Clinton. But John Edwards insists on staying in the mix. So there we are. Nevada Republicans are also caucusing today. But few have taken that seriously, focusing instead on the historically key South Carolina primary. Ever since Ronald Reagan’s victory there in 1980, the Palmetto State has been a key indicator of future presidents. This time around, there have been several leaders in this first Southern primary.
John McCain and character.
Today, it’s “Game Day: Nevada and South Carolina.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada Democratic caucus coverage throughout the day on Saturday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” and “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas” packages.
John McCain finished the last full day of primary campaigning yesterday with a big rally at the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier. Although Mike Huckabee is giving him a good race there, it seems like it looks pretty good for the Vietnam War hero.
Mike Huckabee campaigning in South Carolina.
But this morning’s tracking poll from Zogby for Reuters shows that McCain’s lead there has dropped into essentially a dead heat with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson, who draws from Huckabee, appears to be stalling out again. Mitt Romney, the victor in home state Michigan, is a distant third in this first Southern test.
The old Reagan coalition is fracturing, with McCain taking the national security vote with his seemingly prescient advocacy of a new strategy in Iraq and Vietnam War hero credentials, Huckabee taking the social conservative vote with his genuine stances there, and Romney the economic conservative vote. But in South Carolina, home of dirty tricks, McCain is again the victim of anonymous push polling and ads making him out to be a secret traitor. Sigh.
Now to Nevada. It seems that Barack Obama, who closed out the day yesterday with a huge rally at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, is concerned about the impact of gambling on poor people. And that Hillary Clinton has decided to use that against him in her latest kitchen sink-and-all effort to eke out a victory, as she barely did in New Hampshire. And that, although the Clinton campaign is actually the best campaign in communicating what it wants to communicate, it has neglected to communicate that part of its message to me. Which, of course, it is using, in a highly targeted way, in its multi-faceted effort — failed lawsuit vociferously and embarrassingly backed by the former president of the United States and all — to try to eke out a win in Nevada. Where Hillary led by 25 points two months ago.
Meanwhile, 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Senator John Kerry campaigned yesterday in Nevada for Obama. He appeared with Michelle Obama at an afternoon town hall meeting in Las Vegas. Kerry, incidentally, has fond memories of Vegas. I remember talking with him there when he was campaigning in 2004, where he easily won the caucus and nearly won the general. He hit Vegas for a special trip before shipping out for the Vietnam War. Won some money, too. Or so he remembered it.
Here is how the day plays out.
Nevada’s lightly contested Republican caucuses — only Romney has campaigned here of late — begin at 9 AM Pacific time. Results should be known sometime in the noon hour in the Silver State.
The much more important Nevada Democratic caucuses begin at 11:30 AM Pacific time. Groupings will form in the noon hour. Results will start to come in to the Nevada Democratic Party around 2 PM Pacific time.
In South Carolina, the polls are open from 7 AM to 7 PM Eastern time. Three hours earlier in the Pacific time zone.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed down at $90.57 per barrel on renewed fears of a global economic slowdown. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
The tres amusing and charming Hillary Clinton welcomes you to
“Hill Force One.”
** CAMPAIGNS WRAPPING AND ROLLING. The campaign day is still very much underway in Nevada. But it is wrapping up in South Carolina. I’m a bit written out, as some may be gathering, and have much more to do today on multiple fronts. I’ll give you what I think is happening in tomorrow morning’s column, which will, of course, kick off the latest Game Day coverage. But with regard to South Carolina, and its all important Republican primary … John McCain just finished the day with a big rally at the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier. Although Mike Huckabee is giving him a good race there, it looks pretty good for the Vietnam War hero.
** RASMUSSEN POLLS CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.The Rasmussen robopoll has done its first take on California. On the Democratic side, it finds a close race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. On the Republican side, John McCain has a larger lead over Mitt Romney. Here are the numbers.
Democrats: Clinton 38%, Obama 33%, John Edwards 12%.
Republicans: McCain 24%, Romney 17%, Mike Huckabee 13%, Fred Thompson 13%, and former frontrunner Rudy Giuliani at 11%.
In South Carolina, Rasmussen finds a dead heat between McCain and Huckabee, with everyone else well back.
** AND CALIFORNIA CONGRESSWOMAN SANCHEZ ENDORSES CLINTON. The only sister act in the history of Congress, Southern California’s Linda and Loretta Sanchez, split their endorsements today in the closely fought race for the Democratic presidential nomination. While Linda Sanchez this morning endorsed Barack Obama, her older and more conservative sister, Loretta Sanchez, this afternoon endorsed Hillary Clinton.
Loretta Sanchez is very well known for toppling the Orange County conservative icon, “B-1 Bob” Dornan. She also served as a co-chair of the Democratic National Committee and considered running for governor of California in the tumultuous 2003 recall election. She’s a good get for Hillary. Just as her sister is a good get for Obama.
** CALIFORNIA CONGRESSWOMAN SANCHEZ ENDORSES OBAMA. The endorsements between the two Democratic frontrunners are increasingly split, with most now actually going to Barack Obama. I still give a slight edge to Hillary Clinton, thanks to the continued presence in the race of John Edwards. Nevertheless … Here’s what LA/Orange County Congresswoman Linda Sanchez just had to say: “Since I began serving in Congress five years ago, I have seen the difficulty in bringing fresh ideas to Washington, DC, and to our country. Sadly, great talent and ideas are too often dismissed because those who possessed them were seen as too idealistic, too young, or too unwilling to submit to the same old Washington way of doing things. Senator Obama is the candidate who can change that culture by mobilizing a new generation to get involved in the civic life of our country. He is reinvigorating America by showing us that we all have a stake — and a say — in our democracy and our country’s future.”
** KAUFMAN ON CALIFORNIA TERM LIMITS REVISION. In the few moments currently available, a respite on California politics. I spoke late yesterday with ace Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman, who is running the term limits revision initiative, Proposition 93 on the February 5th California ballot.
Kaufman called to point out that a trope going around the California blogosphere — namely, that the Yes on 93 campaign is “out of money” and hence dropping its TV ads — is not true.
Some on the right are claiming that the term limits revision campaign — which just picked up the support of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, to the profound dismay of its conservative opponents — is out of money and cancelling its TV ads. Actually, says Kaufman, they are shifting their buy based on the demise of the current TV season due to the ongoing writers strike.
** ACING IT. Incidentally, and amusingly, Clinton California campaign director Ace Smith finally got back to me just now to say that what I wrote below is not true. Actually, it is. Important point for operatives. Do not deny the obvious. I’m very busy, but you’re not doing yourselves any good in the long run with inaccurate spin.
Here is what is happening with the Clinton California campaign. A woman from the New Hampshire campaign has been dropped in to the California campaign and is sending out the press releases from it. This is why yesterday’s roll-out of the first Hillary TV ad for California had an East Coast time zone on it. And why Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez was incorrectly identified as “House Speaker” Fabian Nunez.
After I mentioned the latter to the Clinton forces, they sent out a corrected press release with the actual title of the California Assembly speaker, who is a national co-chair of the Clinton campaign. (Which was first reported last year on NWN, thanks to sources within the Clinton campaign.)
** CRISS-CROSSING THE SILVER STATE. In this final full day of campaigning before the Nevada presidential caucuses, the Democratic frontrunners are criss-crossing the state.
Hillary Clinton has events in Las Vegas, Reno, Elko — on the desert highway up to Sun Valley — and a 9 PM rally in Henderson (the other gambling mecca of Southern Nevada) with her husband, the former president of the United States.
Barack Obama, who unveiled a new stand-up comedy routine last night at his town hall meeting in Las Vegas, riffing on what political statements really mean, has town hall meetings in Reno and Elko, a rally in Las Vegas, and closes out the day with an appearance at the annual Martin Luther King banquet at Caesar’s Palace.
** TRACKING POLLS.The Zogby tracking polls for Reuters show a continuing lead for John McCain in South Carolina and a narrow lead for Hillary Clinton in Nevada. Frankly, I have no idea how he or any other pollster is polling the Nevada Democratic caucus. What I am absolutely certain of, having done successful Nevada campaigns, is that, absent the spoiler John Edwards, Obama wins Nevada.
Here are the numbers in South Carolina: McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 22%, Mitt Romney 15%, Fred Thompson 13%, Ron Paul 4%, Rudy Giuliani 2%.
Incidentally, gang, at the risk of having to waste time to delete hundreds more attacking posts from Ron Paul supporters, but shouldn’t the Time Magazine Man of the Year hero of 9/11 Giuliani be running ahead of the wacky libertarian doctor in these early contests?
** GAME DAY: NEVADA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. On Saturday, it’s “Game Day: Nevada and South Carolina.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada Democratic caucus coverage throughout the day on Saturday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” and “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas” packages.
** MISSING THE BOAT. Incidentally, I’ve only in the past day become aware of yet another Clinton move against Obama in Nevada. It seems that Barack Obama is concerned about the impact of gambling on poor people. And that Hillary Clinton has decided to use that against him. And that, although the Clinton campaign is actually the best campaign in communicating what it wants to communicate, it has neglected to communicate that part of its message to me. Which, of course, it is using, in a highly targeted way, in its multi-faceted effort — failed lawsuit vociferously and embarrassingly backed by the former president of the United States and all — to try to eke out a win in Nevada. Where Hillary led by 25 points two months ago.
2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry campaigns
with Michelle Obama yesterday in Las Vegas.
** THE NATIONALIZED CLINTON CALIFORNIA CAMPAIGN. So I gave Hillary Clinton’s California campaign many hours yesterday to explain to me why they announced their first TV ad … with an EASTERN time on the press release. From Clinton state campaign director Ace Smith, who I’ve known since 1994 — when he was the Kathleen Brown opposition research director who did not detect then Governor Pete Wilson’s employment of an illegal immigrant housekeeper (Wilson won on his campaign against illegals) — on down, they didn’t get back to me, notwithstanding multiple e-mails and phone calls.
So now, having allowed the more than requisite amount of time as a nice guy, I will tell you what is actually going on.
Reporters will note that they received not one, but two press releases late Wednesday on California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez leading a crew of state Capitol politicos to work the Nevada caucuses. That is because of me. I noticed that the first press release referred to “House Speaker” Fabian Nunez. “House Speaker?” I contacted the Clinton California folks immediately to point out the glaring error. Which was corrected some time later.
It turns out that that press release, from the Clinton California campaign, was composed and sent out by someone from the Clinton national campaign, an East Coast woman sent to the Golden State to run press operations. After I noted the obvious error in Nunez’s title, via e-mail, the Clinton campaign sent out a corrected press release with Nunez’s correct title.
The EASTERN time referenced in yesterday’s California Clinton campaign press release on the the former first lady’s first Golden State ad is attributable to the same Wrong Coast mentality, per the Clinton national campaign’s decision to big foot its California campaign.
Hillary, of course, has heard the voice of the people, after getting blown out in Iowa, and speaks in the same idiom.
He is, in this rendition, a pro-Commie fake. Like Swift Boated-John Kerry. The fact that this stuff is pushed by and funded by non-vets is, on a personal note, infuriating to me.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Former President Bill Clinton gets very heated as he pushes the
now failed lawsuit to block low-income Vegas casino workers
from voting near their workplaces in Nevada.
On the Republican side, it’s McCain 27%, Huckabee 25%, Mitt Romney 15%, and Fred Thompson 13%. That is out of phase with the other telephone polls using human questioners. But someone is hitting McCain again with negative mailers and push polling, among other things saying he was a traitor when he was captured by the Communists during the Vietnam War.
On the Democratic side, the race is not close. It’s Barack Obama 41%, Hillary Clinton 31%, and John Edwards 13%.
** OBAMA IN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, KERRY CAMPAIGNING IN NEVADA. Barack Obama, following a noon fundraiser at the St. Francis Hotel in San Francisco, is back to Nevada for a town hall meeting tonight in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Senator John Kerry is campaigning today in Nevada for Obama. He appears with Michelle Obama at an afternoon town hall meeting in Las Vegas. Kerry, incidentally, has fond memories of Vegas. I remember talking with him there when he was campaigning in 2004, where he easily won the caucus and nearly won the general. He hit Vegas for a special trip before shipping out for the Vietnam War. Won some money, too. Or so he remembered it.
** CLINTON CAMPAIGN LAUNCHES FIRST CALIFORNIA TV AD. Following on the heels of Barack Obama, who launched his first TV ad for the California primary last week, the Hillary Clinton campaign today started its first TV ad. There was a conference call — featuring Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, and Clinton state director Ace Smith — scheduled for 2 PM EASTERN time, announced in a press release I received at 1:42 PM PACIFIC time, so I don’t know what their plans are.
But here is the script: “In this troubled economy … How can so many millions of people…simply not be heard? Well, I hear you. You’re asking for healthcare that covers everyone. Protection from losing your home. You would like to fill your tank without draining your wallet. And give your kids the future they deserve. If I am your president, I will bring more than 35 years of experience to the White House.
** COURT RULES IN FAVOR OF LAS VEGAS STRIP CAUCUSES. The court has just ruled that Nevada’s Democratic caucuses go forward as planned. This includes the at-large caucuses on the Vegas Strip, which are easier for casino workers to participate in.
The Clinton campaign agreed to the rules when they were devised last year. But since then, Barack Obama has emerged as a serious threat and the Culinary Workers Union — which backs Obama — represents the casino workers, and is backing Barack Obama. So, as the saying goes, that was then, this is now.
Barack Obama talks immigration reform yesterday at a town hall
in Henderson, Nevada.
** ANOTHER SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL. In a tracking poll conducted last night of over 700 Republican voters by human questioners, John McCain maintains a lead over Mike Huckabee. According to the Public Policy Polling track on Wednesday night, it’s McCain 28%, Huckabee 20%, Mitt Romney 18%, Fred Thompson 17%, Ron Paul 4%, Rudy Giuliani 4%, and 9% undecided.
** NEW SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC POLL.In an Insider Advantage poll of the South Carolina Democratic primary, which takes place on January 26th, Barack Obama continues to hold a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton. Here are the numbers: Obama 41%, Clinton 31%, John Edwards 13%. Obama appears to be consolidating the black vote in the first Southern primary of the contest.
** ANOTHER SENATE COLLEAGUE ENDORSES OBAMA. Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Pat Leahy, a Vermonter who has known Hillary and Bill Clinton far longer than he has known Barack Obama, this morning endorsed Obama on a conference call. “Barack Obama,” he said, “is the best candidate to reintroduce America to the world – and restore hope in our country. Barack Obama represents the America we once were and want to be again.”
Leahy denied that his endorsement of Obama means that he doesn’t think that Clinton can be a good president. He likened Obama, instead, to Bobby Kennedy, whom he supported as a young volunteer, for his ability to inspire and to generate participation from young voters. He also compared the choice between Obama and Clinton to the one in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe expressed confidence about today’s Nevada court hearing on Saturday’s caucuses. Clinton allies have sued to overturn party rules which allow casino workers, most of them people of color, to caucus near their workplaces on Saturday. Former President Bill Clinton, descending from the global heights, has endorsed the effort to overturn the Nevada caucus rules. At the time the rules were adopted, the Clinton forces were fully in favor of the rules. Since then, they have lost major labor endorsements in Nevada to Obama, notably the Culinary Workers Union. Nevada Democratic Party officials also express confidence in their legal position.
** NEW PPIC POLL: “CALIFORNIA’S POST-PARTISAN FUTURE.”I got this poll the other day, which went off embargo late last night, and nearly forgot about it. Which shows how swamped I am.
The new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll explores the growing phenomenon of the independent voter in California, a frequent topic on NWN. Key points: As the partisan divide has deepened, the trend toward independent, or decline-to-state, voter registration has grown. Since October 2000, the number of independents in California has increased from 2.3 million to 3 million, while the combined number of Democratic and Republican voters has shrunk from 12.6 million to 11.8 million. If current registration trends continue, there will be more independents than either Republicans or Democrats by 2025. …
Another factor is independents’ ideological bent—or lack thereof. As the report shows, two in three Republicans describe themselves as conservatives, while only one in four place themselves in the political middle. Just over half of Democrats self-identify as liberals, while only three in 10 identify with the political middle. In contrast, most independents describe themselves as middle-of-the-road (39%), with the remainder falling equally on the liberal (31%) and the conservative (30%) sides of the ideological spectrum. Thus, large numbers of independents are not driven to the polls to express partisan preferences, rendering voter turnout, and the likely choice of candidate among independents, difficult to predict.
John McCain’s new South Carolina ad, hitting Hillary Clinton for her Woodstock Concert Museum appropriation. “I was tied up at the time,” says McCain.
** CAMPAIGNING IN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TODAY. The Democratic frontrunners are campaigning in California and Nevada today. In addition to the obvious raising of funds, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have numerous campaign events in the Golden State, though Obama will be back in Nevada for an event tonight, while Clinton doesn’t return to the Silver State for campaigning until tomorrow.
Mitt Romney, winner of Tuesday’s Michigan Republican primary, will also be campaigning in Nevada today, where Republicans are holding a much lower key set of caucuses on Saturday. The rest of the Republican field, other than Rudy Giuliani, who has set up winter camp in Florida, will be campaigning in South Carolina for that state’s all-important Republican primary on Saturday.
For her part, Hillary appears with religious leaders at an African American church in Compton this morning. This afternoon, she has a “Solutions for the American Economy” town hall in LA at Cal State University, Northridge. Tonight she has another town hall on the economy at the University of California at Santa Barbara.
Obama has a roundtable on economic issues at the San Francisco Women’s Building. Later in the day, he’s back in Nevada, for an event tonight in Las Vegas.
Long-shot Democrat John Edwards embarks on his three-day “Coast To Coast” tour today, hitting Nevada, California, Oklahoma, Missouri, Georgia and South Carolina.
Here are the numbers: McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 22%, Fred Thompson 14%, Romney 12%, Ron Paul 5%, Rudy Giuliani 5%.
** NUNEZ LEADS BUSLOADS OF CALIFORNIA CAPITOL POLITICOS TO NEVADA. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, a national co-chair of the Clinton campaign, is leading a caravan of 150 pols from the California state capital this morning to work the Nevada caucuses for Hillary. The crew will rally on the West Steps of the Capitol before boarding their buses. Much fun will undoubtedly ensue.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
Mitt Romney’s victory speech for yesterday’s Michigan Republican primary.
** HILLARY, OBAMA, AND THE BIG PIVOT TO THE ECONOMY. With all sorts of signs that the US economy is in trouble, and concern rising in both parties — it was the main issue in yesterday’s Republican primary in Michigan — the Democratic frontrunners are pivoting from away from Iraq. Although John Edwards has been talking economic populism for months, Hillary Clinton was the first among the frontrunners to make the pivot, laying out an economic stimulus program last week and pivoting in full today. She will, according to her campaign, make it her principal focus for at least the next few weeks. Accordingly, she held a media conference call and an economic roundtable in Reno, Nevada today, and did a series of cable TV interviews.
In the conference call, Clinton declared: “America is not working.” The call also featured New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, the former Wall Street tycoon, and Michigan Governor Jennifer Grantholm, who introduced herself by saying that her state has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Funny, that’s not quite how Arnold would do it.
In any event, Hillary outlined her plan to “jump-start” the US economy with a $100 billion-plus “economic stimulus” package. The plan consists of measures to “prevent housing foreclosures, provide relief from rising energy prices, extend unemployment insurance, and spur ‘green collar’ job growth.”
Not to be outdone entirely, Obama has his own plan, which he discussed at a roundtable in LA’s San Fernando Valley today. While he has his own overall stimulus plan, today he focused on abusive lending practices and the wave of foreclosures prompted by the subprime lending crisis. Among those participating in the roundtable were a few people who’ve been directly affected by these problems.
Obama said that as president he will change bankruptcy laws to protect families with medical crises, create a new exemption in the 2005 bankruptcy bill, cap interest rates on payday loans, create a credit card bill of rights, and establish a foreclosure prevention fund.
There was little opportunity to question Clinton about these complex matters, especially when she had Corvine and Grantholm chiming in as well on the couple of questions allowed. But that’s not really the point here, especially as few in the political press corps are versed in or particularly care about the specifics. What is the point is that the thematic ground of the campaign is shifting.
** “THE MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY.” There are many things to admire about the Clintons, especially with regard to their highly professional approach to professional politics, but there are those things which grate, shall we say, greatly, amongst a great many in the press and have many in the Democratic Party — including some who are their supporters — rooting for their political demise.
A case in point.
As I predicted yesterday, the Clinton campaign is claiming a victory in the Michigan primary. What Michigan primary, you say? Precisely. The Democratic National Committee declared it invalid, stripped of all delegates, and all presidential candidates agreed not to campaign there or treat it as anything approaching a valid contest. They all took their names off the ballot. Except, at the last minute, Hillary Clinton. (And Dennis Kucinich, too, but that was a campaign foul-up.)
As the only name on the ballot, Hillary won little more than half the votes in an extremely light turnout, while 40% went to uncommitted and 4% to Mr. Kucinich. Who actually campaigned there on Monday, violating the joint pledge. Last night, as I predicted, Hillary’s campaign manager sent out a missive claiming victory.
This also prompted Karl Rove to have some fun at Hillary’s expense, in a speech today: “She’s running against nobody and nobody gets 40% of the vote. The other 5% of the vote went to three other people. 27,924 votes went to the guy who believes in UFOs, the guy who dropped out and the guy who last held public office somewhere around 1855.”
Which goes to show that it’s best not to attempt to play all the angles all the time.
** THE CLINTONS AND OBAMA DO CAL-NEVA. Back in the day, the Cal-Neva Lodge was a classic stateline casino at Tahoe owned by Frank Sinatra and some other guys. I had hoped we could get into savoring all that kind of stuff this time around. But then Iowa and New Hampshire moved up even sooner, along with many other states, and everything is accelerated even more, including the international stuff which impinges so heavily now on US presidential politics. So there’s little time for savoring the the old charms of the new, only to accelerate along with it.
Which is a way of saying that the top Democratic presidential candidates (and spouses) are now racing across Nevada and California.
Former President Bill Clinton, after coming to Sacramento and Davis for his wife’s Las Vegas debate night, is roaming around Northern California today, hitting Oakland, Napa, and the far North Coast town of Eureka.
After a roundtable at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas on the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste depository, Hillary Clinton is doing a national conference call on her economic policy and a roundtable on the economy in Reno. Tomorrow, she campaigns in Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, picking up some dollars in the process. On Friday, she returns to Nevada for a full day of campaigning.
For his part, Barack Obama campaigns in Nevada and California over the next three days. In California, in addition to fundraising, he holds economic roundtables in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
** ROMNEY TAKES MUST-WIN MICHIGAN. Mitt Romney finally won a state he needed to win last night, his home state of Michigan, in convincing fashion over John McCain. His 39% to 30% win, with Mike Huckabee trailing far back at 15%, keeps Romney in the race as a credible candidate after his campaign-long strategy of winning Iowa and New Hampshire flopped.
As you could tell from my coverage hours before the polls closed yesterday, it was obvious that a very low turnout in Michigan was helping Romney greatly and that the state was his. Bad weather and a general lack of enthusiasm and energy made it a scenario for the highest propensity, hard-core Republican voter. But even they don’t like President Bush much, with only 52% approving of his job performance in the media exit poll.
The independents did not turn out for McCain in what became a largely dispirited primary in the state with America’s highest unemployment rate. McCain took a lead in Michigan after he won New Hampshire last week, but couldn’t hold it as many of his potential supporters did not vote. He wanted to knock out Romney in Michigan, but couldn’t pull it off.
Now McCain has a must-win state of his own: South Carolina.He leads there now. But the election is four days away. If McCain wins South Carolina, he is the Republican frontrunner. If he does not — assuming that Romney also does not — the Republicans have descended from turbulence into chaos.
Fortunately for McCain, the issue dynamics of South Carolina are different from Michigan. In Michigan, McCain had to deal with an electorate, even a Republican one, looking for reassurance that some solution will be found to the decline of the auto industry. Romney, son of a revered former Michigan governor who was CEO of a big car company, promised that he would use his special connection with the state and his own demonstrated business expertise to bring the industry back. McCain said that some of those jobs are simply gone. It wasn’t what people wanted to hear.
And in Michigan, the national security/Terror War issue was trumped by economic insecurity as the top issue by more than 2 to 1. The Republicans there weren’t interested in the relative success of The Surge; they want a surge of their own for the auto industry.
South Carolina is very different. National security issues are very big there. As is the evangelical community, in a plus for Huck, who is running second there.
Incidentally, remember all that talk about Fred Thompson getting out of the race after Iowa? You may not, because you didn’t read any of it here. If Thompson was out of the race, Huckabee would have a great chance of winning South Carolina.
“Who is ready on Day One?,” asked Hillary Clinton in last night’s
Las Vegas Democratic debate.
** VEGAS, BABY. After a big build-up, last night’s Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas was somewhat uneventful. Each of the three candidates, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards, turned in good performances. (Less than an hour before the debate, the Nevada Supreme Court agreed with NBC and overturned a lower court ruling that would have forced Dennis Kucinich into the debate.)
The unofficial truce between the Clinton and Obama camps on personal attacks and negative racial politics held, with the opening sequences of the debate an exercise in kumbaya.
Here are a few major takeaways from the debate.
Barack Obama discusses the “politics of fear since 9/11.”
Obama missed a big opportunity by not nailing Hillary on her rationalization of her vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. She claimed Sunday that she wasn’t voting for war, but for peace, because the Bush White House assured her that the purpose of the legislation was to allow weapons inspectors to do their jobs. I’m told that this was to have been Obama’s question for Clinton in the “Ask An Opponent” segment of the debate. But Obama never got to ask a question, with the moderators oddly ruling that he had already asked his question when, in the midst of an extended back-and-forth with Edwards, he posed a rhetorical question rather than a declarative statement.
A very odd move by NBC’s Brian Williams and Tim Russert. And an odd decision by Obama not to find another way to do it.
John Edwards discusses climate change and his opposition to nuclear power.
John Edwards. Good candidate running way to the left of his record. Good debater who articulates core Democratic themes as well as anyone in years. Tragic yet uplifting situation with his wife. But here’s the thing. He can’t beat Hillary Clinton. Period, full stop. It’s increasingly obvious that Edwards’ continued presence in the race is having one overarching strategic impact: He is preventing Obama from coalescing the non-Clinton vote and clearly defeating Hillary.
None of the major polling outfits are polling Nevada now, burned by the New Hampshire polling debacle and unsure how to measure a Nevada caucus. Will there be 9000 people, as in 2004? Will there be 100,000, as in Harry Reid’s wild dream?
I’ll tell you this from experience. No matter how many people turn out, if Obama has a one-on-one shot in Nevada against Clinton, Obama wins. But he doesn’t have that. So in the two recent polls that do exist, the picture is simply very muddy — aside from Hillary having lost her lead — thanks to John Edwards and his continued presence in the race.
As for Clinton, she turned in a strong performance. At least in the context of the debate, and with what I believe was the unwitting assistance of the moderators, she neutralized the Iraq issue, the single greatest distinction in judgment for Democratic voters between the two contenders. She also shone on the economy, speaking with authority and detail about the ongoing slowdown.
That said, Obama also had a strong performance, setting aside the missed opportunity on Iraq. He was likable and presidential. And unlike Clinton, he actually answered the question about what mistakes he most regretted.
** SOUTH CAROLINA: MCCAIN LEADS IN TRACKING POLL. In the new Zogby tracking poll for Reuters, John McCain has the lead for Saturday’s South Carolina Republican primary.
It’s John McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 23%, Mitt Romney 13%, Fred Thompson 12%, Ron Paul 6%, and Rudy Giuliani 5%.
** MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY CONGRATULATED MCCAIN FOR PRIMARY VICTORY. In the days leading up to Michigan’s Republican primary, the Michigan party chairman predicted a Mitt Romney victory there. Presumably because he knew how upset even Republicans there are with the economic management out of Washington and President Bush. That’s a little joke. Here’s something that’s not a joke. The Michigan Republican Party sent out a press release after the primary ended last night congratulating its winner. John McCain. Oops. The explanation? The race was so close, supposedly, that releases were prepared for both Romney and McCain. And the McCain release was sent by mistake.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
As icy Michigan’s low-turnout Republican primary draws to a close, with first Mike Huckabee, then John McCain already off to South Carolina for the big, noisy primary there on Saturday, the Democrats are making their final preparation for a debate tonight in Las Vegas that could prove a milestone in the campaign.
The two warring camps, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have a shaky ceasefire in effect now on personal attacks and racial politics, and it is holding today. Bill Clinton, the global statesman suddenly turned campaign lightning rod, is hundreds of miles from his former first lady wife tonight. He’s not in Southern Nevada, he’s in Northern California, to watch the debate and do a college rally near the state’s capital as part of the effort to stave off a possible Obama surge in the biggest prize of next month’s Super-Duper Tuesday.
With racial politics and personal attacks apparently off the table tonight, that leaves economic insecurity (which turned out to be the biggest issue by far in Michigan’s GOP primary!), national security, and some Western issues, notably around the environment.
In her peace offering statement last night, reported below, Hillary pointedly did not take her criticisms of Obama and claims about herself with regard to Iraq off the table. She will attempt to discredit the notion that Obama was really against the invasion of Iraq – a prime selling point for Democratic voters – while she was for it. She’ll note that he voted to fund the troops in the field and did not push for a withdrawal timeline until fairly recently. And she will claim that she wasn’t voting for war – when she voted to authorize an invasion – but for allowing weapons inspectors to finish their work, insisting that the White House told her that was the actual purpose of the legislation.
This, should Obama have any game on at all, will prove to be a tough sell.
John Edwards, running a distant third in all the national polls and in most states – but perhaps in contention in Nevada – will push his neo-populist themes and hope that another dust-up erupts between Obama and Clinton.
That’s his hope at this point, that the two frontrunners turn off enough voters that some will turn to him.
I still don’t know if Dennis Kucinich is in this debate. (See earlier report.)
2:38 pm PST — Exits
The media exit polls are starting to become available. The candidate numbers are kept under a strict lock and key. Which means that if you find out numbers and are not supposed to have them, the proprietors get very interested in how that happens.
What we do know is that the turnout in the Michigan Republican primary is low. It’s a more dispirited than energized electorate. Concern about the economy is by far the biggest issue in this state with the highest unemployment rate in the country. Much bigger than Iraq, the Terror War, and national security.And President Bush has barely a more than 50% job approval rating. Among Republicans.
This should, to an extent, favor Mitt Romney. A low turnout model electorate with voters, even Republican voters, eager to believe promises to revive a fading automobile-based economy.
As native Michigander Romney, son of a popular former governor and chief executive of a big car company, said yesterday, having pledged big programs to save all the jobs: “Michigan is in my DNA. Cars are in my blood.”
12:11 pm PST — Where It May Be Going
The word from sources in the campaigns is that Michigan Republican primary turnout looks low, at least so far. The snow has subsided to flurries and less in much of the state, but there is a high wind chill factor.
Let’s say, hypothetically, since it hasn’t happened and may well not, that Mitt Romney’s last ditch effort for a win in his home state pays off narrowly over John McCain. What happens next?
Romney, as I reported earlier, has resumed TV advertising in the next major Republican contest — Saturday’s South Carolina primary — after stopping his ads there a week ago.
But McCain has developed a signficant lead in South Carolina in the new Rasmussen poll.
The numbers there are: McCain 28%, Mike Huckabee 19%, Romney 17%, and Fred Thompson 16%. McCain’s support has stabilized while Huckabee, the former leader who had been running just behind McCain, has gone down and Thompson has gone up.
11:55 AM PST
The Wacky Kucinich Factor
The always entertaining Dennis Kucinich, whose minuscule support for the Democratic presidential nomination never stops him from running, has found a way to place himself in the middle of stories in Nevada and Michigan today.
First in Nevada, where he was first invited — and then disinvited — to take part in tonight’s Las Vegas debate. He sued to get back on the stage, and a Clark County judge agreed with him. But parent corporation NBC is refusing him a role in the debate, and is appealing to the Nevada Supreme Court. Presumably they will get a ruling soon.
Then in Michigan. The real action is on the Republican side, but as we wait to see who is actually braving the wind chill factor and turning out to vote, Kucinich may find a brief moment of notoriety in the Democratic primary. Which doesn’t count, since all the candidates agreed not to campaign there and the Democratic National Committee stripped the state’s delegates in retaliation for violating the party’s sequence of contests.
All the candidates except Hillary Clinton — playing her own edgy campaign — took their names off the ballot. (Down the road, expect her to claim she won the Michigan primary.) Well, it turns out that Kucinich didn’t actually take his name off the ballot, either. Apparently the result of a campaign foul-up.
Now correspondent Dave Musgrove reports that the Kucinich campaign e-mailed its supporters to do get out the vote calls in Michigan. And Kucinich himself showed up unexpectedly for a rally yesterday at the University of Michigan.
Watch Kucinich claim a second place finish in a big state primary that didn’t actually take place. He may even finagle his way back into the big debate against the big candidates tonight.
Now THIS is what Andy Warhol meant about 15 minutes of fame!
Bill Clinton Steps Back
10:58 am PST
After spending yesterday campaigning across southern Nevada and calling in to black radio shows, the latter to try to tamp down the racial controversy that threatened to overtake the Democratic presidential race, former President Bill Clinton has stepped back from the limelight.
When his wife, Barack Obama, John Edwards — and, maybe, depending on the Nevada Supreme Court and NBC brass, Dennis Kucinich — appear for a key debate tonight in Las Vegas, Bill Clinton will be hundreds of miles to the north, in another state entirely.
He’ll be watching the debate in Sacramento, the capital of California, with Clinton supporters hoping to avert an Obama surge in the Golden State. California is the biggest prize of the possibly pivotal February 5th states.
After the debate watch, he’ll presumably call his wife down in Vegas, then head over to the University of California at Davis for a late rally with his former deputy interior secretary, John Garamendi, now California’s lieutenant governor.
Clinton, who enjoyed wide popularity in his “global statesman” persona, quickly made himself a hot button figure with his furious late campaigning for his wife against Obama. He was the principal attack dog against the Illinois senator in the final day of the New Hampshire campaign last week. The “first black president,” as Toni Morrison dubbed him, then became embroiled in the Clintons’ controversy with black voters.
It’s a good time for him to step back.
Huckabee Heads To South Carolina
9:52 am PST
Mike Huckabee once hoped to score an upset in today’s Michigan primary, but that hope has faded as the race swiftly evolved into a two-man affair between Michigan native Mitt Romney and New Hampshire winner John McCain.
So Huckabee has already left the state, and is heading to South Carolina. There he hopes for a stronger showing in Saturday’s primary.
Huckabee led in South Carolina earlier. The most recent polls show him running behind McCain.
As for Romney, he pulled his TV advertising in South Carolina after he lost in New Hampshire a week ago, throwing everything into Michigan. But today he goes back on the air in South Carolina.
Another Late Tracking Poll
8:55 am PST
Here’s another final tracking poll from the Michigan Republican primary, from American Research Group. John McCain 31%, Mitt Romney 30%, and Mike Huckabee 19%.
Interestingly enough, the sample doesn’t have that many independents or Democrats in it. Even though there is no Michigan Democratic primary to speak of, since the Democratic National Committee removed all delegates in retaliation for the state moving its primary up and the candidates agreed not to campaign there.
The sample is 80% Republican and 20% independent. And no Democrats.
McCain’s big problem today in Michigan would appear to be the weather, which has snow in much of the Wolverine State.
THE MORNING COLUMN
Today is another big day in presidential politics, with the Michigan Republican primary and the Las Vegas Democratic debate, which I’ll be covering throughout the day with correspondents and contacts in both states. The polls show a tight race in Michigan between John McCain and Michigan native Mitt Romney, with the final tracking poll from last night a dead heat and snow expected throughout much of the state.
There is equal uncertainty surrounding tonight’s Democratic debate in Las Vegas, cablecast tonight on MSNBC at 6 PM Pacific time. Dennis Kucinich’s suit for inclusion — a Clark County judge ruled him in but NBC refuses — adds an element of legal uncertainty. The battling frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, may or may not dial back their hostilities, which threaten Democratic comity going forward, roiling party constituencies. And what role will John Edwards play? He can’t win the nomination, but he may be able to decide who does.
I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s Michigan Republican primary and Las Vegas Democratic debate coverage throughout the day, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Michigan and Nevada. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to a certain degree, mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the Game Day: Iowa and Game Day: New Hampshire packages.
The weather forecast is for snow throughout much of Michigan. This could help Romney, whose father was one of Michigan’s most popular governors and who pledges, somewhat incongruously, to preserve all the state’s jobs in a fast-changing world. He has a heavily funded appeal to hard-core Republicans, while it remains to be seen how many independents and even Democrats turn out in less than ideal weather to back McCain. On the other hand, there is no Democratic primary for them to vote in.
Barack Obama’s town hall meeting yesterday in Reno, Nevada.
In the hard and now closely fought Democratic race, there were signs yesterday that both Clinton — whose campaign has been the aggressor in ratcheting up the negativity — and Obama may dial it back. Speaking at a town hall meeting in Reno, Obama noted that the two have much in common.
For her part, Hillary issued a somewhat conciliatory statement late yesterday. Her campaign was embroiled with controversy yesterday after one of her surrogates, sharing the same stage as the candidate on Sunday, leveled harsh innunendos at Obama for the teenage drug use he discussed in his best-selling autobiography.
“Over this past week,” Clinton said, “there has been a lot of discussion and back and forth – much of which I know does not reflect what is in our hearts. And at this moment, I believe we must seek common ground. Our party and our nation is bigger than this. Our party has been on the front line of every civil rights movement, women’s rights movement, workers’ rights movement, and other movements for justice in America.
“We differ on a lot of things. And it is critical to have the right kind of discussion on where we stand. But when it comes to civil rights and our commitment to diversity, when it comes to our heroes – President John F. Kennedy and Dr. King – Senator Obama and I are on the same side. And in that spirit, let’s come together, because I want more than anything else to ensure that our family stays together on the front lines of the struggle to expand rights for all Americans.”
Of course, her statement did not address her campaign’s efforts to make Obama’s teenage drug use an issue in the presidential race — carried out by former co-chairman Billy Shaheen in public statements last month in New Hampshire, chief strategist Mark Penn on the Hardball show, and surrogate campaigner Bob Johnson (seen in the video below) — and she offered no apology for the various characterizations of Obama’s and her views on Iraq. But she clearly recognized that things could spiral out of control, and that a candidate with her already sky high unfavorables could scarcely expect to emerge unscathed.
The Clintons are going hard against Obama for his status as the only major candidate to have opposed the invasion of Iraq, which he did with a famous speech while running for the U.S. Senate. They are trying to make him out as a phony opponent of the war. It shouldn’t be hard for him tonight to counter that effort.
Hillary is also trying to position her Senate vote to authorize the invasion as a vote for peace, a complicated rationale about her believing what she says were the assurances of the Bush Administration that the actual purpose of the legislation authorizing the invasion was to allow weapons inspectors to finish their work. One would have to ignore a lot of political history to have believed that rationale, if it was offered to her.
More intriguing in tonight’s debate will be the role of John Edwards, a very effective candidate who at this point can only play the role of a spoiler, helping Clinton against the insurgent Obama.
** SCHWARZENEGGER LIVE WEBCASTS ON BUDGET CRISIS. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger does two live webcast events today on California’s budget crisis. The first, with the Salinas Business Association, is at 10:15 AM. The second, with the Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce, is at 12:30 PM. Both can be viewed by clicking on this live link.
** SCHWARZENEGGER BACKS TERM LIMITS REVISION INITIATIVE. From his essay in today’s L.A. Times: Term limits have been on the books since 1990, and I strongly support the idea of restricting the number of years politicians can spend in office. Elected officials who serve for decades lose a sense of urgency to make things better, and they often fall out of touch with the public. But we went too far and need to make some important refinements, as we do all the time with legislation that needs to be corrected, because the people are not well served by the current system.
It takes time to learn how to govern effectively. Under the current system, our elected officials are not given the time they need to reach their full potential as public servants. Just as they get seasoned in one house, they know their time is beginning to run out, and they must start positioning themselves to run for a new office.
The current term-limits law has created another unintended consequence that also must be fixed. It has ceded too much power to the special interests in Sacramento, because the unions, corporations and lobbyists take advantage of the relentless campaign cycle faced by legislators forced to seek a new position. … The constant jockeying for new positions also makes legislators more dependent on their political party and its most extreme elements. Allowing members to serve more time in the Assembly or Senate will help bring more civility and less partisanship to Sacramento.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
The Taliban, which until recently controlled this Musa Qala
stronghold in Afghanistan, countered recent setbacks today with
a big attack on the top Western hotel in capital city Kabul.
** HILLARY’S BRAND NEW STATEMENT SEEKING TO COOL INTRA-PARTY CONFLICT. In a statement released late today, Hillary Clinton sought to cool the conflict that has erupted between she and her campaign and Barack Obama.
Over this past week, there has been a lot of discussion and back and forth – much of which I know does not reflect what is in our hearts. And at this moment, I believe we must seek common ground.
Our party and our nation is bigger than this. Our party has been on the front line of every civil rights movement, women’s rights movement, workers’ rights movement, and other movements for justice in America.
We differ on a lot of things. And it is critical to have the right kind of discussion on where we stand. But when it comes to civil rights and our commitment to diversity, when it comes to our heroes – President John F. Kennedy and Dr. King – Senator Obama and I are on the same side.
And in that spirit, let’s come together, because I want more than anything else to ensure that our family stays together on the front lines of the struggle to expand rights for all Americans.
I’ll note the obvious. Her statement does not address her campaign’s efforts to make Obama’s teenage drug use an issue in the presidential race — carried out by former co-chairman Billy Shaheen in public statements last month in New Hampshire, chief strategist Mark Penn on the Hardball show, and surrogate campaigner Bob Johnson (seen in the video below) — and she offers no apology for the various characterizations of Obama’s and her views on Iraq. But clearly, there is a recognition that things could spiral out of control, for one or more of them.
** SCHWARZENEGGER EXPECTED TO ENDORSE CALIFORNIA TERM LIMITS REVISION INITIATIVE. It appears that Governor Arnold Schwarzengger will endorse Proposition 93, the term limits revision measure on the February 5th California ballot. The former action superstar is disappointed that legislative leaders of both parties failed to deliver on promised redistricting reform last year. But he is comfortable with the current leadership of the Legislature and has noticed that the current version of term limits produces inefficiencies in the running of the Legislature.
From a certain perspective, it’s a bit surprising. But not really. I’ll write more about this as it emerges, away from the long shadow of presidential politics.
** SNOWY MICHIGAN. This may not be good for John McCain in his tight race against Mitt Romney in tomorrow’s Michigan Republican primary. It looks like snow all around Michigan tomorrow. Since Romney is appealing to more hard-core conservative Republicans, that might keep more moderate and independent voters likely to go to McCain indoors. Tonight’s tracking poll should be interesting.
** DUELING CALIFORNIA ENDORSEMENTS. Opening up more offices around the state as the campaign ramps up, Barack Obama’s campaign was endorsed today by Silicon Valley Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren. Hillary Clinton was endorsed by North Coast Congressman Mike Thompson.
** HILLARY AND MCCAIN LEAD IN A CALIFORNIA POLL.In a poll by a company called Opinion Research for the LA Times, CNN, and Politico, Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Barack Obama in California among Democrats and John McCain has a slender lead over Mitt Romney among Republicans. Democrats: 47%, Obama 31%, John Edwards 10%. Republicans: McCain 20%, Romney 16%, Rudy Giuliani 14%, Mike Huckabee 13%. The Democratic numbers are out of phase with most new national polling, in which Clinton’s lead has been essentially erased.
** TALIBAN STRIKE IN HEART OF AFGHAN CAPITAL A KEY COUNTER-ATTACK. The troubling situation in Afghanistan got more troubling today when a Taliban commando team successfully bombed the Serena Hotel in downtown Kabul. This hotel is perhaps the leading source of lodging for Western visitors, especially journalists, in Afghanistan’s capital.
The casualty count is unclear at this point. What is clear is that guerillas successfully engaged the hotel’s security, allowing one or more suicide bombers to penetrate the interior of the hotel. This is the first successful attack on a Kabul hotel since American and allied forces routed the Taliban regime after 9/11.
The move comes after several recent setbacks for the Taliban in a seesaw year for Afghanistan’s security situation. The Taliban recently lost their stronghold in Musa Qala, seen in the two-month old video above. The highly touted Taliban offensive of 2007 emerged in, at best, fits and starts. Yet much of the country remains outside the control of the central government and US and NATO forces. The Taliban and Al Qaeda operate with seeming impunity as well from just over the border in deeply troubled Pakistan. Suicide bombings are up sharply around Afghanistan. US commanders are immediately requesting a highly mobile Marine brigade to aid in the fight, as previously reported here.
** DEAD HEAT REPUBLICANS IN FLORIDA.New polling for the end of the month Republican primary in Florida, where one-time frontrunner Rudy Giuliani plans to reboot and is campaigning extensively, shows a four-way dead heat. Here are the numbers, from the Rasmussen tracking robots: John McCain 19%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Mitt Romney 18%, Mike Huckabee 17%, and Fred Thompson 11%. Giuliani previously led there.
Hillary Clinton surrogate Bob Johnson attacks Barack Obama yesterday.
Later, the campaign issues a statement quoting Johnson saying anyone
who thinks it’s an attack is “irresponsible and incorrect.”
** DRIVE-BY ON OBAMA. Above is a video clip showing Black Entertainment Television founder Bob Johnson, campaigning on the same stage as Hillary Clinton yesterday, with a crystal clear implication attacking Barack Obama for his teenage drug use. Which Obama revealed in his best-selling autobiography.
Here is my report on this incident from shortly after it happened: Campaigning today in South Carolina with Hillary Clinton, after her controversial Meet The Press appearance discussed below, Black Entertainment Television founder Robert Johnson ripped into Obama, saying: “I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues since Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood – and I won’t say what he was doing, but he said it in the book – when they have been involved.”
Not long after, the Clinton campaign sent out this clarifying statement from Johnson: “My comments today were referring to Barack Obama’s time spent as a community organizer, and nothing else. Any other suggestion is simply irresponsible and incorrect.”
Johnson, of course, was clearly referring not to Obama’s work as a community organizer, as he claims in the statement hastily rushed out by the campaign, but to Obama’s reference in his best-selling autobiography to his teenage drug use.
This is the second time a prominent member of the Clinton campaign has tried this gambit. Last month, New Hampshire campaign chairman and national co-chair Billy Shaheen raised the issue. He left the campaign the following day, following, as revealed on NWN, heavy internal criticism from some of the Clintons’ biggest backers in the black community. Johnson, of course, as the first black billionaire, is not an official of the Clinton campaign.
Hillary Clinton says she is listening now, that the voters have
reminded her that “politics isn’t a game.”
The Zogby tracking poll has been on target for the Republican contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
** NEVADA POLL GIVES SLENDER EDGES TO OBAMA AND MCCAIN.A poll for the Reno Gazette-Journal by a Maryland-based firm called Research 2000 gives very slim leads to Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain in next Saturday’s Nevada presidential caucuses. On the Democratic side, it’s Obama 32%, Hillary Clinton 30%, and John Edwards 27%. (Note: This is the highest I can recall seeing Edwards, whose numbers are fading around the country, in a Nevada poll. Edwards tried very hard for the Culinary Workers Union endorsement, which went to Obama, and his SEIU allies elsewhere can’t help in Nevada because the state branch is for Obama.) On the Republican side, it’s McCain 22%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Mike Huckabee 16%, Mitt Romney 15%, Fred Thompson 11%, and Ron Paul 6%.
Most major polling outfits are refusing to poll Nevada, feeling burned by the New Hampshire Democratic outcome and being unfamiliar with Nevada.
** GAME DAY: MICHIGAN AND VEGAS. I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s Michigan Republican primary and Las Vegas Democratic debate coverage throughout the day on Tuesday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Michigan and Nevada. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to a certain degree, mirrored here on NWN.
This will be a continuation of the Game Day: Iowa and Game Day: New Hampshire packages.
** INDICTED ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF CARONA TO QUIT. Orange County Sheriff Mike Carona, one of the leading conservative Republican lights in California, is resigning today after months of controversy following his federal indictment on multiple corruption charges. The silence of conservative Republicans in criticizing Carona has been a noteworthy form of hyperpartisan hypocrisy. The Bush Justice Department says that Carona engaged in a concerted plan to use public office to enrich himself since before his election in 1998, a scheme that allegedly included both his wife and his mistress.
Barack Obama is the first presidential candidate to run a TV ad in California.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
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