Florida Governor Charlie Crist is backing John McCain in Tuesday’s
key Florida Republican primary.
The week ahead in presidential politics precedes two of the biggest showdowns in history on next week’s Super-Duper Tuesday, and includes California debates in both parties. We have Hillary & Bill Clinton trying to overcome an historic whipping in South Carolina at the hands of Barack Obama, the notably disgusted Kennedys coming after the Clintons, and John McCain and Mitt Romney duking it out in the only major contest of the week, the Florida Republican primary.
In all calculations, California is very much in play on February 5th, as a key decider for both parties.
First, a brand new Florida tracking poll. The Zogby tracking poll for Reuters, conducted over the weekend through last night, has John McCain slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 33% to 30%, with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee far back at 14% and 11%, respectively. At this point, the impact of Rudy Giuliani in the race is to make it more difficult for John McCain to win. And who thought we’d be saying that six months ago?
This week the Democrats and Republicans have their pre-Super Tuesday debates in California. On Wednesday, the Republicans debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, a distant suburb of Los Angeles. On Thursday, the Democrats debate in Los Angeles. At the end of the week, Republicans hold caucuses in Maine. On the Republican side, we will begin to see if the troubled incumbent party chooses a war hero with appeal to independents, or a recent former moderate-turned-hard right conservative. But the more dramatic storyline is in the Democratic race, at the moment, and it is a close call, with a resurgent Barack Obama looking to hammer Hillary again. Or, another way of putting it, the Kennedys vs. the Clintons.
John F. Kennedy announces a naval blockade during the Cuban
Missile Crisis. The Kennedys are coming out today for Obama.
As I’ve already reported, and as many in the the political world now know — Senator Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy, the only surviving brother and child of ultra-Democratic icon JFK — are rallying today with Barack and Michelle Obama at the American University in Washington, D.C. The Kennedys, not to put too fine a point on it, like and are impressed by Obama. And sources close to them say, are frankly appalled by the behavior of the Clintons. Which they regard as cheap, race-baiting, calculatingly vicious nonsense. And that would be the good part.
Caroline Kennedy, author of an impassioned essay in yesterday’s New York Times entitled “A President Like My Father,” who I’ve met and talked with, is a private person who doesn’t run around making endorsements, so the fact that she is stepping forward is striking in itself. But her uncle is a political pro, and he will be campaigning throughout much of the country, and particularly the West, focusing on labor and Latino voters for Obama. Which, fortunately for the Democratic icon, not to mention Obama, happen to be areas of vulnerability for the freshman Illinois senator in a Democratic contest.
Former President Bill Clinton’s strategy — which he made crystalline in its clarity when he and his wife were were blown out in South Carolina, by denigrating Obama’s historically big South Carolina primary win by saying Jesse Jackson won there, too (in low-turnout caucuses, the part he neglected to mention) — is to cast Obama as “the black candidate.” Though he would deny that is his aim. While he may be fooling some voters, using his sustaining credibility as a former president, he is fooling no one among the ranks of operatives and knowledgeable reporters.
But the Kennedys get at that strategy. They are champions of labor, and of Latinos. Ted Kennedy has been the foremost Senate advocate for organized labor. And his brother Bobby did more than any other Anglo politician — with the possible exception of Jerry Brown, who is presently neutral — for Latinos. I’ve seen pictures of John and Robert Kennedy in the labor camp shacks of Latino workers. But none of Bill or Hillary Clinton.
And so yesterday, Caroline Kennedy, the only surviving child of the Democrats’ version of Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy, published an impassioned essay in the New York Times entitled “A President Like My Father.” I’ve met and talked with JFK’s daughter, who is private, dignified, and not at all given to issuing endorsements, not to mention going out of her way to trade on her father’s legendary name. This is unusual for her. As she put it: “Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible. We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.”
Her endorsement is already resonating with opinion leaders, many of whom have notably soured on Bill and Hillary Clinton. The disdain for their tactics, for example, from everyone on yesterday morning’s Meet The Press panel, was palpable.
Today Caroline Kennedy and her uncle Ted do a noontime rally with Barack and Michelle Obama at the American University in Washington. Which happens to have been the site of a JFK speech about a potential breakthrough in the Cold War. Which never came to pass, since he was assassinated not long after.
Mitt Romney’s Spanish language TV ad promotes his economic
expertise in the Florida Republican primary.
Incidentally, in this frankly non-intellectual, yet self-consciously intellectualized, hyperpartisan era, in which the redhots of both parties are remarkably ignorant about one another, I know a lot of key operatives in both the major parties, Democrats and Republicans. Who is the Democrat Republicans fear most? Barack Obama. Who is the Republican Democrats fear most? John McCain.
Republicans I know like the idea of running against Hillary Clinton, as it stirs up their base and she has remarkably high negatives, though they also respect the Clintons’ political combat skills. Democrats I know like the idea of running against Mitt Romney, who they view as a flip-flopper who has adopted views to win a primary that are too conservative for a general election, though they recognize that he is smart and smooth and personally well-funded, if hardly on a Michael Bloomberg level.
This week, we will get a better idea of how the contest in both parties plays out.
Will Obama get a big boost from his huge win in South Carolina? Will the backing of the Kennedys help him overcome the entrenched power of the Clinton machine?
On the Republican side, if McCain wins in Florida, he is the frontrunner. His new leads in polls of major Super-Duper Tuesday states such as California, New York, and New Jersey will then become more concrete, though megabucks Romney can always fight on. If Romney wins Florida, the contest goes back to a muddle.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
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Why is a right wing anti-immigration dude like Romney doing Spanish language TV?
Why is a right wing anti-immigration dude like Romney doing Spanish language TV?
John F.Kennedy was so cool.
John F.Kennedy was so cool.
The Florida Governor’s got a real tan.
Why do I have to keep clicking to make the videos run?
What a day! This is going to be exciting. 9 o’clock Pacific for the Kennedy rally?
What a day! This is going to be exciting. 9 o’clock Pacific for the Kennedy rally?
I get chills watching JFK. No lol.
Really?
I believe the event is scheduled to begin at 12:15 PM EASTERN time, 9:15 AM PACIFIC.
Capitol Boy :
What a day! This is going to be exciting. 9 o’clock Pacific for the Kennedy rally?
Jan 28, 2008 06:38 AM
I believe the event is scheduled to begin at 12:15 PM EASTERN time, 9:15 AM PACIFIC.
Capitol Boy :
What a day! This is going to be exciting. 9 o’clock Pacific for the Kennedy rally?
Jan 28, 2008 06:38 AM
Lots of problems with YouTube lately.
Click on the lower middle portion of the arrow.
>Jonas Blane :
Why do I have to keep clicking to make the videos run?
Jan 28, 2008 06:16 AM
Yes! Nobody gave him the word.
>Jonas Blane :
The Florida Governor’s got a real tan.
Jan 28, 2008 06:13 AM
Sigh.
>Jonas Blane :
John F.Kennedy was so cool.
Jan 28, 2008 06:04 AM
Sigh.
>Jonas Blane :
John F.Kennedy was so cool.
Jan 28, 2008 06:04 AM
Oh, yes …
>Jonas Blane :
Why is a right wing anti-immigration dude like Romney doing Spanish language TV?
Jan 28, 2008 05:56 AM
lol
The establishment California democratic party elected leaders, such as Nunez, have lent their fundraising and political organizing machine to Hillary, but it will be interesting to see if they are with her “win or tie” or if they get out there and stump with her between now and Feb 5.
Bill, thanks for the thoughtful curtain raiser on this important week. Since the primary process is not over until the summer conventions, it will be interesting to see how long Romney will campaign if he is handed solid losses in a majority of February 5 states. Behind by just a couple dozen delegates, Romney’s personal cash could keep the organization running, but if McCain gets whooped, it will be much harder to fund the long haul.
I think the Republican race will not settle until Giuliani voters are redistributed. Hopefully Rudy will drop out late next week after his wait-until-February strategy proves to be a colossal failure. My man McCain should pick up most of those moderates and put Romney in the rear view mirror.
Bill, thanks for the thoughtful curtain raiser on this important week. Since the primary process is not over until the summer conventions, it will be interesting to see how long Romney will campaign if he is handed solid losses in a majority of February 5 states. Behind by just a couple dozen delegates, Romney’s personal cash could keep the organization running, but if McCain gets whooped, it will be much harder to fund the long haul.
I think the Republican race will not settle until Giuliani voters are redistributed. Hopefully Rudy will drop out late next week after his wait-until-February strategy proves to be a colossal failure. My man McCain should pick up most of those moderates and put Romney in the rear view mirror.
Mitt Romney is a chimp.
Bill,
Great stuff on JFK.
Tomorrow will be very interesting, but can’t wait until next Tuesday. Feels almost like Christmas for a political junkie!
KK,
McCain will be a formidable candidate in the fall.
Trust your friend enjoyed the cab.
I opened a bottle of Foley pinot last evening and enjoyed it ever bit as much as the Lynmar. And the wine guy at Taylor’s as tipped me off on a wonderful everyday pinot, Hahn. Both very drinkable and afforable.
McCain is a great fascist. Fortunately, the stupid fascists of the Right, Michelle Malkin Hugh Hewitt, are working all out to destroy him.
McCain is a great fascist. Fortunately, the stupid fascists of the Right, Michelle Malkin Hugh Hewitt, are working all out to destroy him.
Haha.
IF the Republicans get it …
>Sacramento Solon :
KK,
McCain will be a formidable candidate in the fall.
Trust your friend enjoyed the cab.
I opened a bottle of Foley pinot last evening and enjoyed it ever bit as much as the Lynmar. And the wine guy at Taylor’s as tipped me off on a wonderful everyday pinot, Hahn. Both very drinkable and afforable.
Jan 28, 2008 08:52 AM
Thanks! The American University cable coverage is on now …
>Sacramento Solon :
Bill,
Great stuff on JFK.
Tomorrow will be very interesting, but can’t wait until next Tuesday. Feels almost like Christmas for a political junkie!
Jan 28, 2008 08:49 AM
No comment.
>Len :
Mitt Romney is a chimp.
Jan 28, 2008 08:47 AM
No comment.
>Len :
Mitt Romney is a chimp.
Jan 28, 2008 08:47 AM
We’ll see how sophisticated your colleagues are.
>Kandy Kid :
Bill, thanks for the thoughtful curtain raiser on this important week. Since the primary process is not over until the summer conventions, it will be interesting to see how long Romney will campaign if he is handed solid losses in a majority of February 5 states. Behind by just a couple dozen delegates, Romney’s personal cash could keep the organization running, but if McCain gets whooped, it will be much harder to fund the long haul.
I think the Republican race will not settle until Giuliani voters are redistributed. Hopefully Rudy will drop out late next week after his wait-until-February strategy proves to be a colossal failure. My man McCain should pick up most of those moderates and put Romney in the rear view mirror.
Jan 28, 2008 08:22 AM
We’ll see.
>Hap Hazard :
The establishment California democratic party elected leaders, such as Nunez, have lent their fundraising and political organizing machine to Hillary, but it will be interesting to see if they are with her “win or tie” or if they get out there and stump with her between now and Feb 5.
Jan 28, 2008 08:08 AM
We’ll see.
>Hap Hazard :
The establishment California democratic party elected leaders, such as Nunez, have lent their fundraising and political organizing machine to Hillary, but it will be interesting to see if they are with her “win or tie” or if they get out there and stump with her between now and Feb 5.
Jan 28, 2008 08:08 AM
Linda Douglas just said Ted Kennedy campaigning with Obama in California will help him with Latino vote…and she said it is the old Latinos going for HILBILL not the younger who are open to Obama!!! It is beautiful outside in Sacto I long to get on my horse my dogs want to get going …but I just explained to them we are not going anywhere till I see this endorsement!!!!!
speaking of endorsements when you look at who nunez, antonio, newsome endorsed and who OUR WESTLY endorsed and supporte dfrom the get go …you see you has brains, heart, passion, vision, and guts rolled up in one…no matter who westly runs against in the future if I am here in California I will vote for him…because I think endorsements say as much about the endorser as they do the endorsed
speaking of endorsements when you look at who nunez, antonio, newsome endorsed and who OUR WESTLY endorsed and supporte dfrom the get go …you see you has brains, heart, passion, vision, and guts rolled up in one…no matter who westly runs against in the future if I am here in California I will vote for him…because I think endorsements say as much about the endorser as they do the endorsed
Great for the Kennedys.
Flush the Clintons.
Great for the Kennedys.
Flush the Clintons.
Great for the Kennedys.
Flush the Clintons.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bill-
You clearly have a fall back career in comedy!
>”And that would be the good part.”
That is a laugh out loud line.
Bill-
You clearly have a fall back career in comedy!
>”And that would be the good part.”
That is a laugh out loud line.
So I’m listening to Evan Bayh now?
I don’t THINK so.
So I’m listening to Evan Bayh now?
I don’t THINK so.
Then you wouldn’t agree that the Kennedy endorsement is “marginal”?
That was fabulous…wonderful retort to the Clintons charges…2 things (1) I believe young people especially college students will come out in significant number st o vote…I happened to be on Amer U this past week to hear Imran Khan…the questions I heard from the students were so sophisticated and enormous interest and concern for global issues…(2) for me personally this rally was somewaht of a religious experioence …when Obama told that story about is father coming to US to study on a Kennedy grant…it was so moving and poignant…it had special significance to me…I think Obama is destined to be are next President (Thank God!) I just felt reassured by this story …no matter what dirty opposition Clintons throw at him…he will make it..gotta run ..Toodles