Saying “the Bush economy is like a trap door” in this new ad, Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama in South Carolina but leads in national and California polls.
** LATE POLLS. A few more polls coming in. The Survey USA robopoll of tomorrow’s South Carolina Democratic primary gives a signficant edge to Barack Obama, with Hillary Clinton fending off John Edwards for second.
Here are the South Carolina Democratic numbers. Obama 43%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 24%.
The same polling service’s tracking poll for Tuesday’s key Florida Republican primary gives a very slight edge to John McCain over Mitt Romney, with the fading Rudy Giuliani fighting it out with Mike Huckabee for third.
Here are the Florida Republican numbers: McCain 30%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 14%.
The Florida poll does take into account Romney’s good performance in the Boca Raton debate, but does not account for Senator Mel Martinez’s backing of McCain.
** OBAMA AND CLINTON FORCES DUEL IN CALIFORNIA OVER LATINO LEADERSHIP AS DURAZO BECOMES OBAMA NATIONAL CO-CHAIR. Barack Obama today appointed Maria Elena Durazo, head of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, as a national co-chair of his campaign. Durazo, as discussed below, heads Southern California’s most powerful labor federation and is a longtime leader in the UNITE HERE union. She and others held a series of economic roundtables today with workers in Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego, and San Francisco. And Durazo introduced the first Spanish language TV ad.
Not to be outdone, the Clinton campaign announced that it will open a new East LA office tomorrow morning on Cesar Chavez Avenue. Heading up the event will be Congresswomen Hilda Solis, Grace Napolitano, and Lucille Roybal-Allard, and United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta.
** SCHWARZENEGGER KICKS OFF REDISTRICTING REFORM DRIVE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political committee, the California Dream Team — formerly the California Recovery Team, and maybe the old name should be brought back — today instigated the signature gathering portion of a proposed redistricting reform initiative for the November ballot. Spokeswoman Julie Soderlund says the former action superstar’s committee has just made an initial $50,000 contribution to get the ball rolling, and expressed confidence that they have plenty of time to qualify the measure.
Schwarznegger has been pushing for redistricting reform since before he first ran for governor in 2003, with a somewhat flawed measure calling for a mid-decade redistricting going down to defeat in 2005.
** OBAMA LAUNCHES SPANISH LANGUAGE TV AD IN L.A. The Barack Obama campaign today is first to begin Spanish language TV advertising in California. Maria Elena Durazo introduced the ad on a media conference call. Durazo is chief of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor and a longtime leader of UNITE HERE, the union representing the hotel, food service, apparel and textile manufacturing, laundry, warehouse, and casino industries. Her backing for Obama is as an individual; the powerful LA County Labor Fed is neutral.
The ad begins running today in the huge Los Angeles media market on Univision and Telemundo. It focuses on Obama’s life story as the son of an immigrant who became a community organizer. Obama has been having a problem with the Latino vote. His story is not well known, and this is an effort to correct that problem.
Here is the translated script (VO=VoiceOver, BO=Barack Obama): VO: Do you remember the dream that brought you or your parents to this country? BO: Hope — hope is what led me here today. With a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas and a story that could only happen in the United States of America.
VO: Now this is your country. Don’t let anyone or anything take away those dreams. BO: We are choosing hope over fear.
VO: You’re not alone. We’re millions. Ordinary people, cooks, construction workers, professionals, heads of house, who together can believe with Barack Obama that we can indeed do extraordinary things. That we can bring peace and leave a better world for our children and that we can create a just and United America. BO: In this election — in this moment — let us reach for what we know is possible. A nation healed. A world repaired. An America that believes again.
** FLORIDA SENATOR BACKS MCCAIN. John McCain, locked in a tight race in Florida with Mitt Romney, is getting a big boost for Tuesday’s primary. Senator Mel Martinez, a former Bush Cabinet member and Republican national chairman, is endorsing him and will be campaigning with him. This is an important move in getting the support not only of Martinez’s overall state constituents, but of the key Cuban-American vote. McCain already has three key Cuban-American members of Congress from the Miami area.
I know that Governor Charlie Crist, who shares with McCain and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a deep concern about climate change, has been considering an endorsement, but don’t know the status.
** ANOTHER SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL. In a Public Policy Polling track last night of 595 likely voters in tomorrow’s South Carolina Democratic primary, Barack Obama held a large lead over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards relatively close to her in third. Here are the numbers. Obama 44%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%. Other polls have shown a closer race between Obama and Clinton.
** SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL The latest Zogby tracking poll for Reuters shows some slippage for Barack Obama and a rise for John Edwards, who is in hailing distance of Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 38%, Clinton 25%, and Edwards 21%.
With former President Bill Clinton campaigning in the state, Obama’s support among men has dropped. Could Edwards actually catch Hillary? Possibly, but she’s back in the state now, too, and clearly has no intention of finishing third.
Could Clinton catch Obama? Probably not, but here we get to the expectations game. Hillary led in South Carolina for most of last year, until Oprah — hey, where she is now? — helped crystallize Obama’s backing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Post-Oprah, and post-Iowa, Obama has opened up a big lead in South Carolina. If that wilts under the double-barreled attack of Bill and Hill, his victory may come with a big discount.
It also may come with a cost. Clinton campaign maneuvers are succeeding in positioning Obama — who has a unique multi-racial appeal — as the black candidate. Obama has actually won huge numbers of white votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. In South Carolina, he’s running third among whites. This is because white Democrats there are more conservative, and because the vote there is becoming polarized along racial lines. As it is in the national poll discussed below.
** TOMORROW — GAME DAY: SOUTH CAROLINA. Tomorrow, it’s “Game Day: South Carolina.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s South Carolina Democratic primary coverage throughout the day on Saturday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” and “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina” packages.
John McCain, backed yesterday by Sylvester Stallone, leads
California and national Republican polls and runs best against
Clinton and Obama.
** NATIONAL POLL: MCCAIN AND CLINTON LEAD. The new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll has John McCain opening up a lead nationally among Republicans over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani trailing. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards way behind the leaders.
National polls have been largely meaningless to date, but now become important with the many contests of Super Tuesday now looming on the horizon.
On the Republican side, Giuliani’s poll meltdown is striking. His favorable rating has been cut in half since last spring.
On the Democratic side, what jumps out of the numbers is the increasing racial polarization of the race. Obama is now consolidating the black vote, but as that happens, Hillary’s lead among white voters is going up.
And here are the numbers.
Republicans: John McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 23%, Mitt Romney 20%, Rudy Giuliani 15%. (Fred Thompson’s support splintered, rather than go to Romney as some had prophesied.)
Democrats: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 32%, John Edwards 12%.
Mitt Romney did well in last night’s Republican debate and leads
in some Florida polls.
** LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE. Well, compared to the knock down, drag out Democrats on Monday night in South Carolina, the Republicans in Florida were downright sedate. Actually, they were sedate by any measure. Mitt Romney had a good night, looking strikingly rested. John McCain also did well, as did Mike Huckabee, who is starting to look like a good running mate for McCain.
Romney sounded impressive talking about the economy. No one attacked him for his flip flops, so he was able to project a confidence that hasn’t always come through in these events. McCain was strongest on national security, of course, with the other candidates, including Rudy Giuliani, who was okay, practically deferring to him. But the economy was the main topic of the debate, which worked to the advantage of Romney, who got the most air time.
McCain backs the bipartisan stimulus emerging in the House and Senate, but Romney has upped the ante with a much bigger proposed stimulus plan. How exactly he pays for it he didn’t really say, and he went essentially unchallenged by both his competitors and, surprisingly, the moderators.
All the campaigns evidently made the decision to avoid anything approaching the slugfest of Monday night, instead choosing to showcase their candidates’ best sides to the voters. In addition to the cable audience of MSNBC, the debate was carried on NBC affiliate and O&O stations throughout Florida, providing Floridians with their first extended look at the candidates.
** FLORIDA POLL, MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A new Mason-Dixon poll of the Florida Republican primary, taken January 21-23, gives Mitt Romney a narrow lead over John McCain. It’s Romney 30%, McCain 26%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, and Mike Huckabee 13%.
** FLORIDA TRACKING POLL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT. An Insider Advantage poll taken January 23rd shows a dead heat in the Florida Republican primary. It’s John McCain 23%, Mitt Romney 22%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Mike Huckabee 16%.
** PPIC POLL: LARGE CALIFORNIA LEADS FOR MCCAIN AND CLINTON, TERM LIMITS REVISE IN DEEP WATER, SCHWARZENEGGER APPROVAL DROPS. The new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows John McCain and Hillary Clinton with large leads in the California Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.
On the Republican side, it’s John McCain 29%, Mitt Romney 17%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, and now withdrawn Fred Thompson 10%. Giuliani’s support has plummeted in the Golden State, while McCain’s has shot forward.
On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton 43%, Barack Obama 28%, and John Edwards 11%.
The term limits revision initiative, Prop 93, is in deep trouble, tied at 42%-42%. I’ve previously discussed the problems with the initiative.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval has taken a hit, going from 63% among voters in December to 52% now. That’s still very high for a governor, but down from the stratospheric heights he had enjoyed since his landslide re-election in November 2006.
His problem? His State of the State address, which I didn’t have time to watch, as it came on the day of the New Hampshire presidential primary, was indifferently received. And his budget proposal, a “disaster budget” with huge cuts pretty much everywhere, is distinctly unpopular. But it’s not all bad.
From pollster Marc Baldassare’s statement: Several of the governor’s actions and proposals get a decidedly warmer reception. A majority of adults (64%) agree with the governor’s declaration of a fiscal emergency. Two in three Californians (67%) support his call for about $40 billion in new state bonds for water and education facilities, high-speed rail, and other infrastructure projects. And interestingly, a majority of state adults (64%) say they support the governor’s proposed constitutional amendment to stabilize the budget. In supporting an amendment that would place limits on state spending, require that money be socked away when revenues are high, and allow for budget adjustments at several points throughout the fiscal year, Californians appear ready to take a fresh look at an idea that voters have rejected in the recent past.
A big majority is in favor of higher taxes to preserve K-12 education programs; a large majority favors it for health and human services. But aside from K-12, most Californians are very open to cuts in other programs.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading is trading up in the $90 to $91 per barrel range as fears of a global economic meltdown recede.
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Mr. Romney’s equivocations and prevarications make him a bad choice for Republicans.
KK,
Ha Ha:)
KK,
Ha Ha:)
Sorry for the double-posting.
Sorry for the double-posting.
Did I read right that Tom McClintock is going with Ron Paul?
Did I read right that Tom McClintock is going with Ron Paul?
A big majority is in favor of higher taxes to preserve K-12 education programs — Sorry to see that the people need such an education on this issue.
Me, idealistic white boy at computer, me, I get goosebumps READING’s Obama’s commercial.
But I wonder if it hits home for struggling Latino workers and families. Still, it’s good intro, and there’s time before Feb. 5th (and, I think, enough money in the Obama kitty) for another ad or two to get specific and bring it all home.
Jack Bauer got out of jail before the writer’s stike ended! Just thought I’d throw that in since it was a topic of discussion 48 days ago.
He is leaning toward Paul, now that Thompson has bowed out.
In regards Romney, he avers “I want somebody with a consistent record. I want someone who didn’t have to go through a political epiphany the day before he announced his candidacy.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/with-fred-thomp.html
>richard locicero :
Did I read right that Tom McClintock is going with Ron Paul?
He is leaning toward Paul, now that Thompson has bowed out.
In regards Romney, he avers “I want somebody with a consistent record. I want someone who didn’t have to go through a political epiphany the day before he announced his candidacy.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/with-fred-thomp.html
>richard locicero :
Did I read right that Tom McClintock is going with Ron Paul?
That’s a pretty good line. He didn’t do much for Thompson, of course, who he’d never met before he became state chairman.
Yeah, I was gonna do a Kiefer Sutherland item but was just overloaded.
But … no scripts, no Jack!
>Anonymous :
Jack Bauer got out of jail before the writer’s stike ended! Just thought I’d throw that in since it was a topic of discussion 48 days ago.
Jan 25, 2008 04:37 PM
Yeah, I have not seen the spot, but I gather they spliced together speech footage with voice over.
>Chris M :
Me, idealistic white boy at computer, me, I get goosebumps READING’s Obama’s commercial.
But I wonder if it hits home for struggling Latino workers and families. Still, it’s good intro, and there’s time before Feb. 5th (and, I think, enough money in the Obama kitty) for another ad or two to get specific and bring it all home.
Jan 25, 2008 04:33 PM
Yeah, I have not seen the spot, but I gather they spliced together speech footage with voice over.
>Chris M :
Me, idealistic white boy at computer, me, I get goosebumps READING’s Obama’s commercial.
But I wonder if it hits home for struggling Latino workers and families. Still, it’s good intro, and there’s time before Feb. 5th (and, I think, enough money in the Obama kitty) for another ad or two to get specific and bring it all home.
Jan 25, 2008 04:33 PM
Don’t think that would be a great move for him.
>richard locicero :
Did I read right that Tom McClintock is going with Ron Paul?
Jan 25, 2008 04:27 PM
A lot of big-time Republicans overlook the morphing.
>Jonathan Hemlock :
Mr. Romney’s equivocations and prevarications make him a bad choice for Republicans.
Jan 25, 2008 03:31 PM
He may want to up the ante for his state.
>Dana :
Bill, I saw Governor Crist interviewed last night on CNN and he was asked more than once about a possible endorsement and he danced around the issue, said the Florida voters were the ones who would tell us which candidate is best. He was certainly enthused at the attention they garnered by moving up the Primary. Also did the usual Rep mantra that taxes are too high, etc.
Jan 25, 2008 02:25 PM
He may want to up the ante for his state.
>Dana :
Bill, I saw Governor Crist interviewed last night on CNN and he was asked more than once about a possible endorsement and he danced around the issue, said the Florida voters were the ones who would tell us which candidate is best. He was certainly enthused at the attention they garnered by moving up the Primary. Also did the usual Rep mantra that taxes are too high, etc.
Jan 25, 2008 02:25 PM
I’ll skip the pony and take the $200.
The Washington Post did a great article on the Edsel last year, including the infamous pony giveaway story:
“After months of sluggish sales, the crack PR team gathered to brainstorm ideas for selling Edsels. They were battered and weary and devoid of ideas until an adman named Walter “Tommy” Thomas blurted out a suggestion.
“Let’s give away a [bleeping] pony,” he said.
Much to Thomas’s amazement, his idea was not only accepted, it was expanded. The geniuses at Edsel decided to advertise a promotion in which every Edsel dealer would give away a pony. It worked like this: If you agreed to test-drive an Edsel, your name would be entered into a lottery at the dealership, with the winner getting a pony.
Ford bought 1,000 ponies and shipped them to Edsel dealers, who displayed them outside their showrooms. Many parents, egged on by their pony-loving children, traipsed in to take a test drive. Unfortunately, many of the lucky winners declined the ponies, opting instead for the alternative — $200 in cash — and soon dealers were shipping the beasts back to Detroit.”
I’ll skip the pony and take the $200.
The Washington Post did a great article on the Edsel last year, including the infamous pony giveaway story:
“After months of sluggish sales, the crack PR team gathered to brainstorm ideas for selling Edsels. They were battered and weary and devoid of ideas until an adman named Walter “Tommy” Thomas blurted out a suggestion.
“Let’s give away a [bleeping] pony,” he said.
Much to Thomas’s amazement, his idea was not only accepted, it was expanded. The geniuses at Edsel decided to advertise a promotion in which every Edsel dealer would give away a pony. It worked like this: If you agreed to test-drive an Edsel, your name would be entered into a lottery at the dealership, with the winner getting a pony.
Ford bought 1,000 ponies and shipped them to Edsel dealers, who displayed them outside their showrooms. Many parents, egged on by their pony-loving children, traipsed in to take a test drive. Unfortunately, many of the lucky winners declined the ponies, opting instead for the alternative — $200 in cash — and soon dealers were shipping the beasts back to Detroit.”
There’s got to be a pony in there somewhere. Who says I’m not funny. Tom Cruise laugh
It looks good for Obama tomorrow! Maria Elena Durazo is a great choice for him here.
Ah, the irony. The Bush economic stimulus plan — giving almost everyone money for nothing — is not really a tax refund or tax rebate because the money is not tied to taxes paid on last year’s 1040. You pass a crude means test, you get the cash. Therefore the stimulus is really just a form of direct aid to individuals. Which means a Republican president has sponsored one of the most pure displays of socialism not seen since … Nixon’s wage-price controls!
Ah, the irony. The Bush economic stimulus plan — giving almost everyone money for nothing — is not really a tax refund or tax rebate because the money is not tied to taxes paid on last year’s 1040. You pass a crude means test, you get the cash. Therefore the stimulus is really just a form of direct aid to individuals. Which means a Republican president has sponsored one of the most pure displays of socialism not seen since … Nixon’s wage-price controls!
It’s called buying support. Or putting money in people’s pockets.
Indeed it did.
>Capitol Boy :
It looks good for Obama tomorrow! Maria Elena Durazo is a great choice for him here.
Jan 25, 2008 07:05 PM
Indeed it did.
>Capitol Boy :
It looks good for Obama tomorrow! Maria Elena Durazo is a great choice for him here.
Jan 25, 2008 07:05 PM
Don’t make me run the Tom Cruise Scientology video!
>Ann :
There’s got to be a pony in there somewhere. Who says I’m not funny. Tom Cruise laugh
Jan 25, 2008 06:20 PM
Incidentally, NWN passed 49,000 comments sometime in the past week.