New West Notes

Rudy Giuliani endorses John McCain for president.

** DEMOCRATS: CLOSING UP. A very key moment tonight in the Democratic presidential race with the final pre-Super Tuesday debate at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood. Barack Obama did a big town hall meeting at multi-racial, and heavily Latino, LA Trade Tech College earlier today, and sounded more than a little like John Edwards, discussing class and racial divides. Like Hillary Clinton, Obama will have a private LA fundraiser after the debate. She’s in a private residence, with Barbra Streisand in attendance; he’s in a trendy club.

In addition to the latest Rasmussen poll, other private polling shows the California primary closing up. It’s not clear when Obama will again be in California. Hillary campaigns in the Golden State Friday and Saturday. And I believe Bill Clinton is coming back. For Obama, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry are coming into California, with Kennedy campaigning in both halves of the state tomorrow.

** REPUBLICANS: WRAPPING UP. Mitt Romney campaigned today in Southern California, Long Beach to be specific. He has not been advertising in California, though he was fairly close in the polls prior to McCain’s Florida win and Arnold Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of McCain. His campaign is playing it close to the vest about his next moves. All they’ll say is he will spend something in the millions of dollars on TV ads for Super Tuesday.

As for McCain, he followed up his Schwarzenegger endorsement this morning by gaining the endorsement of a popular hard right politician, Texas Governor Rick Perry. He wowed the hard right of the California party at last fall’s convention in Palm Springs when he followed Schwarzenegger’s tough talk about relevance with a big dose of the old time religion. But now, like Schwarzenegger, he’s with that raging moderate McCain.

** NIGHT-TIME VIEWING. The Democratic candidates debate tonight in Los Angeles, at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood. Live at 5 PM Pacific time, it’s the first one-on-one showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. A two-hour debate.

Lost also returns tonight.

Later tonight, John McCain appears on The Tonight Show with Schwarzenegger friend Jay Leno.

** NATIONAL GALLUP POLL: BIG MCCAIN LEAD, OBAMA CLOSING ON CLINTON. The new Gallup Poll shows a big lead on the Republican side for John McCain and a tight race on the Democratic side between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

On the Republican side, it’s McCain 37%, Mitt Romney 22%, and Mike Huckabee 17%.

On the Democratic side, it’s Clinton 43% and Obama 39%.

McCain’s edge over Romney is increasing in the wake of the Vietnam War hero’s victory in Florida. And Obama is closing in on Hillary in the wake of his win in South Carolina and endorsement by the Kennedys.

** SCHWARZENEGGER ENDORSES MCCAIN, PUSHES SOLAR AND CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION. As first predicted and then reported here, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger this morning endorsed John McCain. He did so at the LA firm Solar Integrated Technologies, at an event which drew 24 TV cameras and extensive live coverage on all cable news networks. Also on hand was Schwarzenegger’s other friend, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who withdrew yesterday and endorsed McCain before last night’s debate at the Reagan Library.

All three, and in particular Schwarzenegger and McCain, pushed “green tech,” including solar power, as a way to fight climate change and wean America off its fateful fixation on oil and gas from dangerous areas of the world.

Incidentally, in last night’s debate, all four Republican presidential candidates — including Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul — endorsed Schwarzenegger’s call for the federal government to allow California to pursue its extensive climate change program. This is currently being blocked by President Bush’s Environmental Protection Agency, which has prompted legal action against the administration by former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown.

** OBAMA RAISED $32 MILLION IN JANUARY, MAKES POST-SUPER TUESDAY AD BUY. Barack Obama’s campaign announced that it has raised a single-month record total of $32 million in January. It is now buying time in post-Super Tuesday contests. These include Washington State, Nebraska, and Louisiana, all of which hold contests on February 9th, Maine, which holds its caucuses on February 10th, and the February 12th primaries in Washington, DC, Virginia, and Maryland.

** REPUBLICAN DEBATE LAST NIGHT CHANGED NOTHING, ARNOLD ENDORSES MCCAIN THIS MORNING. The Republican presidential debate last night at the Reagan Library was essentially uneventful. Frontrunner John McCain lured Mitt Romney into a lengthy attempt to defend his position on Iraq, sitting back with a sly grin as the former moderate Massachusetts governor who now wants to be the champion of the hard right explained that he really wasn’t against the surge in Iraq.

Meanwhile, as you know, McCain had just received the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani. And, as exclusively revealed below, will get Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s backing this morning. As the California ABC stations reported, I predicted it in my column of January 20th, contrary to the other California media reports.

McCain already led in California. Schwarzenegger’s backing will, absent some unforeseen event, such as sudden onset of Tourette’s Syndrome, ensure a McCain victory in the Golden State. McCain is in good shape around the country on Super-Duper Tuesday. Indeed, an interesting question is why so many hard right talk show hosts, columnists, pundits, and bloggers are dead set against him. He can win the presidency, and is by any measure on the scale of politics, on balance, a conservative. But he’s not hewing, as it were, to their particular doctrines.

I mean, they love Nicolas Sarkozy. Who is a raging socialist compared to McCain. I understand hyperpartisan thinking. Yet I still marvel at it.

Caroline Kennedy and Barack Obama talk about “a new generation of leadership.”

** RASMUSSEN: HILLARY BY 3 POINTS IN CALIFORNIA. Last week, my old acquaintance Dan Walters, the conservative who has for decades had a near daily column in the Sacramento Bee, wrote that California was such an unimportant presidential primary that the candidates, such as Hillary Clinton in particular, wouldn’t bother to campaign here. As fate would have it, Hillary came to California that very day, flying across the country after the South Carolina debate for a big town hall meeting, and for the endorsement of the United Farm Workers.

The Republicans, of course, debated last night at the Reagan Library, in far suburban LA. The Democrats, of course, debate tonight in Hollywood. John McCain, as I’ve been exclusively reporting since January 20th, will pick up the endorsement of California’s governor in a high profile event.

And now, Hillary Clinton is coming back to California again. Not just around tonight’s California debate, but on Friday and Saturday. And her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will also return to the Golden State he stumped for a day just last week.

Why is this?

Well, because — notwithstanding the latest LA Times poll, which you’ve noticed I don’t really pay attention to, after its preposterous results in the 2003 recall campaign — the Clinton/Obama race in California is tightening. Private polling has had it well into the single digits.

And the new sounding from the Rasmussen robopoll has it close to a dead heat. Clinton 43%, Obama 40%. This is why the Clintons are rushing back to the state they have taken as their turf since Bill was first elected president in 1992.

Hillary Clinton says she tries “to help somebody” every day.

** DEMOCRATIC DEBATE TONIGHT AT THE KODAK. The two remaining Democratic candidates, the frontrunners in the early contests, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, debate tonight at the site of the Oscars, the Kodak Theater in Hollywood. (Hollywood, for those of you who have not been there, isn’t really “Hollywood.” That is further to the west. Hollywood is where I lived as a VISTA Volunteer, which should tell you a lot about it, although it has been cleaned up in recent years.

As the candidates prepare, they do so in the shadow of a report from ABC which casts a bad light on Senator Clinton. She does speak often, as NWN readers know, of her 35 years of experience as a change-maker. But when the ABC investigative unit went over tapes of dozens of her meetings as a member of the board of Wal-Mart, they noticed that she did not speak up for labor rights or protest about sharply anti-union sentiments expressed by directors of the notoriously union-busting company.

This is probably why Obama brought up her years as a Wal-Mart director in the contentious debate in South Carolina. And this is why Hillary struck back immediately saying Obama had busied himself working for his “slum landlord” benefactor in Chicago.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is back up, trading between $91 and $92 per barrel.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

John McCain’s Florida victory speech.

** CALIFORNIA PRIMARY TEASE … Tomorrow morning, early, I will tell you why the Clintons are suddenly coming back to California.

** EXCLUSIVE: SCHWARZENEGGER BACKS MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is for Senator John McCain for president of the United States. According to very well-informed sources, Schwarzenegger will make his support for the Arizona senator and Vietnam War hero known tomorrow in a California event.

At 9:30 AM Thursday, according to an official source, Schwarzenegger will commend McCain and his candidacy for President to his California constituents and others in a Los Angeles event at a “green tech” firm. Schwarzenegger will make it clear that he is not only an admirer of John McCain but is voting for the Vietnam War hero and Arizona senator for president.

Schwarzenegger told some California reporters earlier in the month that he doubted he would support a presidential candidate. However, I seriously doubted that 10 days ago, and wrote at the time that I expected him to support McCain.

Schwarzenegger, who has championed the leading American effort, in the form of a comprehensive California law, against climate change, will join McCain in promoting new technologies to end American’s dependence on foreign oil and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. McCain, for his part, is co-author of a bill with independent Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee, to cut greenhouse gas emissions and establish a so-called cap & trade system on greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

Schwarzenegger and McCain will tomorrow morning tour Solar Integrated Technologies, located south of downtown Los Angeles, a manufacturer of what are said to be leading edge solar photovoltaic panels. Photovoltaic panels generate electricity from sunlight. The panels are ultra-thin, and in the newest iteration here are hard to be seen from street level.

The firm has, according to sources, doubled in both employment and size in the past two years. Schwarzenegger and McCain, according to sources in both camps, want to promote technologies and policies which are beneficial to the environment and promote America’s independence from foreign sources of energy.

Solar Integrated Technologies is, in the emerging parlance, a “green tech” firm, a new buzzword for a type of business that develops renewable energy and/or energy efficiency technologies. This is one of the emerging areas of interest to leading edge venture capital firms. Both men are committed to cutting the emission of greenhouse gases, Schwarzenegger with his California plan, McCain with a bill he co-authored with independent Senator Joe Lieberman, with whom he has also worked across the aisle on issues of energy independence and national security.

Beyond their mutual commitment to the environment and policies they say will promote energy independence, Schwarzenegger and McCain want America to do well in Iraq and in the overall war against Islamic jihadism.

In 2003, before he announced his surprising-to-most candidacy for governor of California — which I forecast in a series of columns — Schwarzenegger visited American troops in Iraq. He told me that they were doing some of the most important work in the world, following his Fourth of July visit to the troops.

Schwarzenegger, a veteran himself of the Austrian Army prior to becoming arguably America’s most famous legal immigrant, strongly respects McCain’s record as a Vietnam War hero, as well as his doggedness in pressing for many years for a new strategy in Iraq.

He also respects McCain for his efforts to develop a comprehensive immigration policy. Both men represent border states, and as sources close to Schwarzenegger put it, know that “the borders must be secured, and realistic solutions within America” must be found.

Schwarzenegger is also friendly with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. While some close Schwarzengger observers would say he has greater rapport with McCain, the former action movie superstar holds Giuliani in high regard. While he was in the race, the choice was a bit awkward.

However, it has been apparent for some time that McCain — with his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina — as well as his relatively strong bipartisan appeal, was definitely getting the best of the contest. So I felt confident in predicting in a column 10 days ago that Schwarzenegger would back McCain.

And as I told ABC correspondent Nanette Miranda yesterday, when I again predicted a Schwarzenegger endorsement of McCain: “They’re both mavericks. They’re both entertaining characters. They’re both funny guys. Both very bright.” In other words, they both have a great deal in common, beyond political and policy considerations.

This is a formidable pairing which should help win the biggest prize next Tuesday for John McCain.

** NWN NEWS BREAK …

… in the works.

** LATE CAMPAIGNING IN CALIFORNIA BY CLINTON AND KENNEDY. Although the latest LA Times poll suggests a strong lead for Hillary Clinton, the Clintons themselves are acting quite differently. Former President Bill Clinton will be appearing shortly, once again, in the Golden State. The actual candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton, will spend Friday and Saturday in California. On this Friday, Hillary will hold a town hall on the economy at San Diego State University, then do some private fundraising (as the online money is not flowing for her as it is for Obama), and then hold rallies in San Jose and San Francisco.

On Saturday, Senator Clinton holds a rally at Cal State LA.

I’m not sure when Barack Obama will be back to California after he is in LA tomorrow, for a town hall at LA Trade Tech College — which is heavily Latino — and for the presidential debate with Hillary at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood, new site of the Academy Awards.

But I can tell you that Ted Kennedy will be in California shortly. On Friday, he holds rallies for Obama in Los Angeles and Oakland. On Thursday, he will be campaigning in New Mexico, appearing at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque and at Santa Fe Community College.

Senator Kennedy, incidentally, is also the Obama campaign’s new enforcer with regard to former President Bill Clinton. As you see in his speech below, at the American University rally, he will counter every charge that Bill Clinton makes against Obama. So far, the former president is playing it very straight. And the press has been kept away from him at his recent public appearances.

** CAMPAIGN FURBALL. The Republicans are now all in California, some campaigning, like Mike Huckabee and John McCain, all, including Mitt Romney, prepping for tonight’s debate at the Reagan Library.

The Democrats are spread out. John Edwards, of course, this morning (Pacific time) ended his long march to the White House this morning in New Orleans with an eloquent speech relating to poverty and shrinking opportunities for the working and middle classes in America. In many ways, one could make a case for Edwards as the best candidate for Democrats to retake the presidency. But it was not to be, and that was obvious months ago.

Today Hillary Clinton is back in home state (sort of) Arkansas, for a town hall meeting on the economy in Little Rock, her home as Bill Clinton built his political career as the Razorback State’s youngest ever attorney general and then longtime governor. Tonight, she is in Atlanta for a J-J Dinner.

Barack Obama is also very much on the road. He spoke at the University of Denver this morning in Colorado, and this afternoon has a big rally at Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix, Arizona.

Joining him today in Denver was Caroline Kennedy, the only surviving child of John F. Kennedy. In my experience with Democratic politics, she has been such a private person that merely catching sight of her has been a rare occurrence. Now she has spoken at two rallies in three days, in cities far from her home, and cut a TV ad running on cable news networks around the country. Here is part of what she had to say in the Mile High City, site of this year’s Democratic National Convention: “Over the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wish they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This longing is even more profound today. Fortunately, there is one candidate who offers that same sense of hope and inspiration. …

“When the Democratic Party holds its convention here in Denver this summer, I hope we’ll nominate the candidate who stands for the future of our party and the future of this country. … It is time for a President who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and inspire others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs each of us to get involved.”

** PRO-HILLARY MAYORS BARNSTORM CALIFORNIA CITIES. In advance of tomorrow night’s Democratic presidential debate in LA — now a one-on-one match between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, three big city mayors backing Hillary are appearing at rallies today in San Francisco, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, and LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are out pushing her economic and urban programs, trying to drum up attention for her candidacy in an environment not marked by a paucity of campaign activity.

** OBAMA DOMINATES CALIFORNIA NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS. Barack Obama has dominated the contest for California newspaper endorsements, winning more than 20. The include, in alphabetical order: Black Voice News, Chico News & Review, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, Long Beach Leader, Los Angeles Sentinel, Marin Pacific Sun, Modesto Bee, North Bay Bohemian, Palm Springs Desert Sun, Precinct Reporter, Riverside Press-Enterprise, Sacramento Bee, San Diego City Beat, San Francisco Bay Guardian, San Francisco Bay View, San Francisco Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News, Santa Barbara Independent, Santa Cruz Sentinel, and Tri-County Bulletin. I haven’t seen a list of Hillary Clinton Californai newspaper endorsements, and at the moment, they aren’t coming to mind.

** GIULIANI WILL ENDORSE MCCAIN AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will formally withdraw from the presidential race and endorse John McCain in an event at 3 PM this afternoon at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley outside Los Angeles. Two hours later, the remaining Republican presidential candidates — McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee — will debate for the last time before Super Tuesday there at the Reagan Library.

** FULL DAY FOR SCHWARZENEGGER, LIVE WEBCAST JUST BEFORE NOON WITH PRESIDENT BUSH. An interesting day for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Yesterday, he gave a well-received, humorous, and somewhat self-deprecating speech in the annual gubernatorial address to the state Capitol’s Sacramento Press Club, acknowledging his setback on health care and vowing action on the state’s chronic budget difficulties. Today is a different sort of day. He greets President Bush late this morning at LAX. The two will then tour the Robinson Helicopter Co. in Torrance, a city south of Los Angeles. At 11:55 AM, Schwarzenegger and Bush do a live webcast statement on trade and economic issues from that location. Later in the day, Schwarzenegger appears on CNN with anchor Wolf Blitzer, then accompanies former First Lady Nancy Reagan as she gives her imprimatur to tonight’s Republican presidential debate in the Air Force One Pavilion of the Reagan Library in Simi Valley.

** EDWARDS TO DROP OUT OF DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE. John Edwards will withdraw from the presidential race this morning in New Orleans, reportedly at a speech on poverty scheduled for 10 AM Pacific time. Edwards began his campaign in New Orleans 13 months ago, working with survivors of Hurricane Katrina. (You saw his casual, “pre-announcement” announcement video here on NWN.) According to AP, he will not immediately endorse a candidate. Barack Obama has asked for his support.

Caroline Kennedy appears in this new TV ad for Barack Obama.

** CAROLINE KENNEDY AD. The somewhat reclusive Caroline Kennedy, who had not endorsed a presidential candidate since her uncle Teddy ran in 1980, and surfaced for a rare rally appearance only Monday after her Sunday New York Times op-ed entitled “A President Like My Father,” has already made her first TV ad for Barack Obama.

It is airing now, in the first round, in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, and New York, as well as national cable TV. You will note the prominent use of footage of JFK, Caroline’s father, and an astronaut planting an American flag on the moon.

The Obama campaign has raised some $6 million on its web site since Obama crushed Hillary Clinton Saturday night in the South Carolina primary.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is back up, trading between $91 and $92 per barrel.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

The Kennedys back Barack Obama in a huge American University
rally yesterday.

Excerpted from my PJ Media coverage …

7:15 PM — The Path Forward

John McCain has won a somewhat larger than expected victory in Florida. Here are the numbers with over three-fourths of the votes counted: John McCain 36%, Mitt Romney 30.9%, Rudy Giuliani 14.8%, Mike Huckabee 13.5%. It’s the first time McCain’s won a closed Republicans-only primary. And it came at the best possible time.

As others have already reported, Rudy Giuliani — as I foreshadowed some hours ago — is pulling out of the race. Further, he will endorse McCain tomorrow in California at the Reagan Library, site of tomorrow night’s Republican debate. McCain and Giuliani are friends, and among his top advisors are people with a mutual history working with George W. Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger, so the arrangement was there to be had.

Mike Huckabee is staying in the race. He likes McCain, and will be drawing votes that might otherwise go to Romney. As Giuliani was doing to McCain.

Romney is continuing in the race, but the planets are coming into alignment for John McCain. In the exit polling, he was overwhelmingly the pick of Florida Republicans as the most electable, including a great many who didn’t vote for him in the primary. He won among conservatives, narrowly, and moderates, losing only among very conservative voters.

McCain leads in most of the big Super Tuesday states, including California and New York. California has been pretty close in some polls with Romney, but I’ve learned that he has just cancelled a scheduled stop in Northern California tomorrow prior to the debate outside LA.

The economy was the biggest issue in Florida, which many thought would make Romney, the super-rich venture capitalist and architect of the successful 2002 Winter Olympics, the favorite. But McCain won the plurality of economic voters. And was the choice of those who want a president with strong national security credentials.

McCain bet big on the US military surge in Iraq, banging away on the Rumsfeld strategy years ago, pushing and pushing, as General Norman Schwarzkopf recalled again last week. At first, that cost McCain big with the independents and moderates who had boosted him in the past. Then he melted down with conservatives over his advocacy of a new immigration policy.

But the surge has been successful, as it should be, since America has the finest armed forces in the world. It is no panacea, it is time limited and thus requires deft politicking to make the overall strategy work in the end. But McCain, given his history on the policy — not to mention his own history as a famed Vietnam War hero and entertaining maverick senator with decades of foreign policy experience — is the best Republican to defend America’s ongoing presence in Iraq.

So tomorrow, McCain receives the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, once a top Ronald Reagan appointee, at the Reagan Library. McCain himself entered politics as a Southwestern war hero, friendly with the Reagans.

Nancy Reagan herself — accompanied by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger — will provide her imprimatur for tomorrow night’s Reagan Library debate.

The atmospherics will be fascinating.

6:10 PM — AP Calls Florida: It’s McCain.

John McCain, with a consistent four-point lead over Mitt Romney with more than half the vote counted, has been declared the winner of the Florida Republican presidential primary by the Associated Press.

The early and late media exit polls all gave McCain a slight edge.

6:02 pm PST — Nets Cut Away from Hillary’s Victory Speech

Hillary Clinton staged an elaborate victory rally tonight, in a non-existent contest.
Important for her to change the storyline of the past several days — big South Carolina loss to Obama, Kennedys come out for Obama, Bill Clinton seen as misbehaving — Hillary seized on a vote that has no meaning. No delegates awarded, everyone agreed not to campaign there.

I’m told the exit polls show that people who decided in the last month actually picked Obama.

Be that as it may, CNN and Fox News cut away quickly from Hillary’s speech. MSNBC cut away as well, just a little bit later, with some quips from the talking heads.

Meanwhile, John McCain is holding a very slight edge in the real primary of the night, the Republican primary, similar to the numbers I gave you a couple of hours ago.

5:58 pm PST — Thoughts

Correspondent Jim Lynch checks in with these thoughts, while John McCain continues to hold a slim lead over Mitt Romney with nearly half the vote counted in the Florida Republican primary.

Turnout
Many people that I’ve talked to today have said that turnout in their local precinct has been light, but heavier than expected for a primary. The early numbers that I’ve seen appear to echo that observation. No one mentioned any delays or long lines, but most said that there were some lines and active voting sites.

GOTV
Nearly everyone received some sort of call within the last few days from multiple candidates. I was told of calls from McCain, Romney, and Giuliani but didn’t hear of anyone getting a call from the Huckabee or Paul. My own observation as I was out and about today was a decided Romney advantage in yard signs. In the area I traveled I saw a small handful of Huckabee signs and one Ron Paul sign. All the rest were Romney’s.

Candidate Buzz
The voting that I know about is all over the place. One couple split their votes between Clinton and Obama. Several people that I know who were planning to vote for Fred Thompson ended up marking their ballot for Mitt Romney. Two folks at work got into a discussion over they way they voted. He saying that his vote went for Hillary Clinton and was just amazed that She didn’t agree. She argued that Hillary’s years in the White House did not equate with experience. She was one of the Thompson supporters that broke for Romney.

Overall Impression
Without exception everyone I talked to was reluctant to make any prediction regarding the final outcome. The consensus opinion was “too close to call.” Even those with a strong feeling for their candidate avoided declaring a victory.

3:55 PM — Early Florida Exits

Early network exit polls indicate a tight race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. McCain 34.6%, Romney 33%.

The Republican electorate is more self-described conservative than in the past. With six in 10 calling themselves conservative. Three out of 10 Republicans called themselves moderates. One out of seven called themselves independents, though the primary is for registered Republicans. In earlier tracking polls, McCain had an edge with conservatives, while Romney had a big edge with very conservative Republicans.

47% said the economy is the most important issue. The other three choices offered were terrorism, Iraq, and immigration, each of which was picked by less than 20%. A third of Republicans rated that economy as good. Only one-seventh of Republican voters described the economy as poor.

Over a third of the Republican voters were 65 years of age and up. 80% white, 12% Latino, of whom about half are Cuban.

2:36 pm PST — Rudy’s Final Day…

So, oddly, this may be the final day of Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign. Or not. He is scheduled to participate in tomorrow’s Republican presidential debate in California, at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley outside Los Angeles. Yet he may also make a different sort of announcement.

But today, he closed out his campaign in Florida, his firewall state, where he was to jump-start his candidacy after being a non-factor in the early contests. There his once seemingly commanding lead has evaporated, and the battle is between his friend John McCain and Mitt Romney, while the former New York mayor himself is fighting it out with Mike Huckabee for a rather distant third.

The hero of 9/11 likes to campaign before big crowds — such as the lecture audiences which made him quite wealthy — and in cafes and diners. So, with the Florida crowds sharply diminished, mostly off to see the upstart Romney and the politically resurrected McCain — Giuliani had a relatively quiet day today, focused on the sort of cafes he likes in Sunny Isles Beach and Del Ray Beach, and a visit to his Broward County headquarters in Pompano Beach.

Tonight he has an election night party, which he had until recently hoped would be his victory party, at Loews Portofino Hotel at Universal Orlando.

It’s too soon to say what he does tomorrow, for it’s not clear what will happen tonight. But one thing is for sure. It’s not what he planned.

2:15 pm PST — Obama Raise, and Moves…

While we wait for some inkling as to tonight’s Florida Republican primary results … And remembering that Florida is divided into two time zones, with the easternmost in the Eastern time zone.

The somewhat reclusive Caroline Kennedy, who had not endorsed a presidential candidate since her uncle Teddy ran in 1980, and surfaced for a rare rally appearance only yesterday after her Sunday New York Times op-ed entitled “A Presidenti Like My Father,” has already made her first TV ad for Barack Obama.
It begins airing shortly, in the first round, in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, and New York You will note the prominent use of footage of JFK, and an astronaut planting an American flag on the moon.

Somehow, I think this move with the Kennedys has been in the works for more than a few days.

The Obama campaign announced that it has raised over $5 million on its web site since Obama crushed Hillary Clinton Saturday night in the South Carolina primary

11:35 AM — Democrats Duel

Meanwhile, even though the Florida primary was uncontested by the Democratic candidates per party rules — discussed in the opener column below — the Democrats are very active today as they continue their duel in advance of next week’s Super-Duper Tuesday. With claims, attacks, and big name endorsements.

In the wake of her big loss in South Carolina on Saturday, not to mention the endorsement yesterday by the Kennedys of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton is trying to get credit for a Florida win tonight. She’ll show up there tonight, and hope the media pays attention to her in the midst of the hard-fought drama of the Romney-McCain battle.

On a conference call earlier with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to discuss the lay of the land in next week’s contests, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, Senator John Kerry jumped on the phone to jump on the Clintons for trying to spin a “victory” in Florida.

“Everyone agreed,” said Kerry, “not to campaign in Florida. There are no delegates at stake in Florida. There is no contest in Florida. This attempt by the Clinton campaign is the sort of sleight of hand that voters rejected over the weekend in South Carolina.”

For her part, Hillary Clinton held a conference call at which she unveiled her major endorsement of early in the week. That is LA Congresswoman Maxine Waters. A fiery African American liberal, Waters said she is for Clinton rather than Obama because “Hillary has always been there for us. She knows how to get things done.”

Clinton herself expressed great pleasure at receiving the endorsement of Waters, who was one of former President Bill Clinton’s most impassioned defenders when he was impeached a decade ago.

The Obama campaign also announced new endorsements, including Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva and a major pick-up, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sibelius.

Sibelius, the latest major red state Democrat to back Obama, delivered the Democratic response to last night’s State of the Union address.

10:46 am PST — Cuba Libre

I reported in the kick-off column early this morning that Mitt Romney was hit by a late-breaking robocall saying he wants to normalize relations with Castro’s Cuba. And that the McCain campaign denies being behind it.

Correspondent Henry Louis Gomez reports on this: “Cuba is shaping up to once again an important issue in Florida electoral politics. In the final hours prior to the Florida primaries, Governor Romney’s campaign accused Senator McCain of launching “robo-calls” that accused Romney of being potentially soft on Castro. The allegation was made by Al Cardenas, Romney’s state campaign chair and former Florida Republican Party Chair. “Cardenas says the claims made in the robo-calls are ‘despicable.’”

McCain was endorsed late last week by Florida’s leading Cuban-American politician, U.S. Senator Mel Martinez. And previously garnered the support of three Cuban-American members of Congress from the Miami area. Martinez’s base is elsewhere in the state.

10:23 am PST — From The Inside Out

Sources in both leading Republican campaigns, John McCain and Mitt Romney, report a record turnout in Florida. And optimism. Tempered optimism.

One campaign sounds a little less sure. That would be the one that seemed to be heading to victory until Governor Charlie Crist endorsed his friend McCain. And before the national security issue moved back center stage, though more voters say they are worried about the economy.

President Bush, inadvertently, to be sure, may have helped his old rival McCain a little bit with his heavy emphasis in his final State of the Union address last night on Iraq and the long Terror War.

And all those rough things that are being done to the various candidates? Well, that’s hardball politics.

9:24 am PST — Final Rasmussen Track

The final Rasmussen tracking poll in Florida, which previously favored Mitt Romney, now has the race dead even. John McCain 31%, Mitt Romney 31%, Rudy Giuliani 16%, Mike Huckabee 11%.

Although a plurality of Republican voters named economic insecurity the top issue, a slender majority said that it’s more important to have a president who masters national security issues rather than a master of the economy.

43% chose the economy as the top issue, while 28% picked Iraq and or national security as the top issue. 52% said it’s more important to have a national security expert as president, while 35% picked the economic expert option.

The Rasmussen poll showed the same slight trend to McCain as did the Zogby poll for Reuters., albeit with slightly different results, since McCain actually leads, narrowly, in the Zogby poll.

A very important difference in methodology. The Rasmussen poll is done with an automated system. It’s a “robopoll.” The Zogby track uses human interviewers.

8:30 am PST — Sunshine State Signs II

Correspondent Patrick Cox notes the near dead heat nature of the latest tracking polls in the race between John McCain and Mitt Romney, but points out that — unlike past McCain victories — Florida has a closed primary in which independents are not allowed to vote. And that, although McCain has the backing of popular Governor Charlie Crist, most of the old Jeb Bush operation, which he calls “extremely good” is working on behalf of Romney.

Correspondent Jim Lynch notes that in his Polk County, most of the absentee ballots requested by voters had already been returned.

Turnout there, as around the state, is being driven not only by the presidential primary, but also by a property tax cut measure, which accounts for the encouragement for Florida Democrats to vote from the party leaders.
Lynch reports that Polk County elections officials predict a 25% turnout, significantly higher than the 19% turnout in the 2004 primary.

7:34 am PST — Sunshine State Signs

Correspondent Henry Louis Gomez notes a number of things: As has been widely reported, the DNC has penalized Florida Democrats by refusing to seat Florida’s delegates at the national convention because Florida moved its primary date up against DNC wishes. The candidates have taken pledges not to campaign in Florida (though Hillary Clinton held a fund raiser in Miami Beach on Sunday that generated a lot of free media coverage). What hasn’t been reported as much is that the Florida Democratic leadership is urging Democrats to go out and vote anyway; they are claiming that they expect all of Florida’s Democratic delegates to be seated when the convention rolls around.

The RNC also penalized Florida Republicans by halving Florida’s delegates to the GOP convention to 57. As a result Florida’s Republicans decided to give all 57 delegates to the winner rather than having a proportional distribution of delegates.

Even with the penalties, turnout figures to be substantial because there’s a state constitutional amendment regarding property taxes on the ballot. Proponents call it a reform, I won’t be so kind. Additionally here in Miami-Dade County we have a slot machine initiative on the ballot that would expand gambling at three county parimutuel facilities.

Florida is sizing up to be the most important primary to date in this season. Truly closed primaries in the 4th most populous state in the country and a swing state at that.

Correspondent Jim Lynch says: I was one of the first dozen people in line at my small precinct. Polk County is the largest county, geographically, in Florida and has a decidedly rural demographic. I live in one of the smaller towns in Polk County that is in between the county seat of Bartow, Lakeland, and Winter Haven. Turnout at the opening was slow, but had already started to pick up by the time I was leaving. In addition to the presidential choices Floridians are voting on an amendment 1, which is being heavily promoted by Republican Governor Charile Crist. The amendment, which deals with the homestead tax rate, is likely to be a factor in voter turnout.

** ON THE DON AND ARNOLDCARE. It was interesting, in a sense, watching from a distance as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s and Fabian Nunez’s California universal health care plan went down, predictably, yesterday in the state Senate health committee. As I reported, Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata provided the coup de grace with his letter, which is excerpted below.

Legislative leaders, if they want to, can get a bill through committee, even one headed by someone, Santa Monica Senator Sheila Kuehl, who likes her own bill much better. Willie Brown, David Roberti, Bill Lockyer, John Burton — to name a few who come to mind in this break between presidential campaign conference call — each would have made sure, one way or the other, that a bill he favored passed out of that committee.

While the bill is problematic, as I’ve pointed out, that committee has passed problematic legislation before, on the same topic. The criticisms leveled at this bill can also be leveled at AB 8.

Still, I think this is a blessing in disguise for the former action superstar. Having a humongous tax, er, fee program hanging out there until November — when voters would have to approve it — would make for a difficult year in what is already a difficult year, given the state’s chronic budget woes with the latest downturn in the business cycle. Not having to defend a Rube Goldberg-style social engineering program all year is not exactly a negative in this context.

THE MORNING COLUMN

It’s game day in Florida, a pivotal primary in the Republican presidential race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. McCain had upward momentum in late tracking polls after faltering some a few days ago as Romney campaigned on growing economic insecurity. I’ll be covering throughout the day with correspondents and contacts in and out of the state.

In the final Zogby tracking poll for Reuters, McCain leads Romney, 35% to 31%. Rudy Giuliani, who once had a huge lead in Florida, where he chose to make his stand, and Mike Huckabee are fighting it out for a distant third place with 13% each.

Meanwhile, as I reported in a column over a week ago, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is considering an endorsement in the race before California votes next week. He’s friendly with McCain.

It’s “Game Day: Florida.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s Florida Republican primary coverage throughout the day on Tuesday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and, to an extent, mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina,” and “Game Day: South Carolina” packages.

John McCain presents “A Tale of Two Mitts,” a medley of
contradictory statements by Romney on video.

Somewhat amusingly, both Romney and McCain — who most outside observers would count as conservative Republicans of one sort or another — crisscrossed Florida yesterday attacking one another as “liberals.” Romney denounced McCain for working with Democrats on immigration policy, campaign finance, and anti-greenhouse gas legislation, which he said would wreck the economy. McCain denounced Romney as a consummate flip-flopper who raised taxes as Massachusetts governor and crafted a universal health care program that’s running heavily in the red.

And that’s the nice part.

Proponents and opponents of both campaigns are unloading on one another in the relatively balmy Sunshine State.

Remember that Bill Clinton statement at the end of last week about how McCain and Hillary are supposedly such close friends and would conduct a milquetoast campaign against one another? The recording of Clinton saying that is featured in a robocall from the Romney campaign attacking McCain. You know the machiavellian former president, out to make mischief on the Republican side with conservatives predisposed to do the opposite of what he says, is anything but surprised by that.

Another robocall attacks Romney for supposedly wanting to normalize relations with Fidel Castro. No one’s claiming credit for that, naturally.

One consultant in the race describes it as “a knife fight.”

Mitt Romney’s campaign hits McCain as “the Democrats’
favorite Republican.”

On the conventional evidence, not only should Romney not be in trouble in the race, he should be running away with it.

Romney, according to Neilsen ratings, has run 10 times as many TV ads in Florida as has McCain over the course of the entire campaign.

McCain, with money finally flooding back into his once empty coffers, has been somewhat competitive of late on the air, though he is still heavily outgunned by the super-rich Romney. But where he has really battled back is with personal campaigning with fellow Vietnam War heroes and military commanders, such as General Norman Schwarzkopf of Gulf War fame, and two formidable endorsements, those of popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez.

Countering that, conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh says a McCain nomination would ruin the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, there is no competition. The Democratic National Committee invalidated the primary because the state went ahead of the party’s sequence of contests, and all the candidates agreed not to campaign there. Nevertheless, even though none of her opponents are there and no delegates are being awarded, Hillary Clinton will attempt to gin up the appearance of a victory tonight when she shows up in Florida after the voting. She’s led from the beginning in Florida polls, and with nothing at stake was never challenged there by Obama or John Edwards, unlike the hard-fought contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which resulted in a split decision between the two frontrunners.

Clinton is seeking to counter her 2 to 1 loss in South Carolina over the weekend and the dramatic endorsement of Obama yesterday by the leading members of the Kennedy family. She is also seeking to turn the page, as it were, on criticism of her husband’s controversial behavior in campaigning for her.

While Obama did a full round of network interviews last night following President Bush’s final State of the Union address, Clinton did one, with NBC, then cancelled the rest.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is back up, trading between $91 and $92 per barrel.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Following his hair’s breadth election the night before,
President-elect John F. Kennedy arrives at the Hyannis Armory
and delivers his victory remarks on November 9, 1960.

** STATE OF THE UNION TONIGHT. President George W. Bush gives his final State of the Union address tonight at 6 PM, Pacific time, on all major nets.

** GALLUP POLL: MCCAIN AND CLINTON LEAD IN CALIFORNIA. In a new Gallup Poll of next week’s California presidential primary — taken before Barack Obama’s landslide win in South Carolina and endorsement by the Kennedys — John McCain leads on the Republican side and Hillary Clinton leads on the Democratic side. Here are the numbers.

Republicans: John McCain 35%, Mitt Romney 27%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Rudy Giuliani 11%.

Democrats: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 35%, John Edwards 10%.

** HILLARY TALKS HOUSING, SETS UP “RAPID RESPONDERS.” Rather than talk about the intervention of the Kennedys on behalf of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton today talked about President Bush’s final State of the Union address,saying: “Tonight President Bush will claim that the state of our union is strong. But as the latest housing data shows, the true state of the union is one of economic anxiety. The latest housing data shows that 2007 marked the first time in recent history where America has experienced a sustained annual drop in median existing home prices. In fact, according to some economists, America hasn’t experienced a sustained annual decline in housing prices of this magnitude since the Great Depression.”

Her campaign also responded to the Obama campaign’s establishment yesterday of a truth squad to counter inaccurate attacks with a group of rapid responders in February 5th states. In California, the Clintons’ rapid responders are state Controller John Chiang, NAACP chief Alice Huffman, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, and former Congresswoman Lynn Schenk, who was former Governor Gray Davis’s chief of staff.

** TOMORROW — GAME DAY: FLORIDA. Tomorrow, it’s “Game Day: Florida.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s Florida Republican primary coverage throughout the day on Tuesday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina,” and “Game Day: South Carolina” packages

** PERATA KILLS ARNOLDCARE. California Senate leader Don Perata has just delivered the coup de grace to the ailing universal health care plan pushed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. It’s not a surprise. Here are excerpts from his letter to the governor.

I introduced SB 48 in December 2006, later yielding to the Speaker’s bill in recognition of our mutual commitment to “get something done.” A lot of progress ensued. Many interests became engaged. Regrettably, however, I cannot support ABX1-1 or its companion initiative.

This bill – which is before the Senate, and the initiative, which is not – would create the third-largest program in state government, surpassed only by K-12 education and Medi-Cal. Under any circumstances, but especially in light of the state’s $14.5 billion budget shortfall, we have the fiduciary responsibility to approve a health care coverage plan that is both self financing and fiscally sound and a moral responsibility to protect from harm those who already have health care coverage.

Many other fundamental fiscal concerns were highlighted during the Senate Health Committee’s in-depth hearing on the proposal. …

- The HCR Plan Is Structurally Under Funded. …

- The State’s Fiscal Crisis Could Exacerbate the Structural Shortfall. …

The LAO report notes that the structure of the HCR proposal may allow employers to “game” the minimum spending requirement by making their employees eligible for purchasing pool coverage. …

- The “Trigger On” Mechanism Offers Inadequate General Fund Protection. …

- The “Trigger Off” Mechanism Provides Limited Options to the Legislature. …

- Employers Could Shift Workers into Financially Unstable Plan. …

Some have suggested that the Senate should pass ABX1-1 and let the voters decide. But in view of these aforementioned unanswered fiscal questions, such action would not be appropriate. First, such action would belie serious fiscal and program reservations. Second, the unusual legislation-initiative you have proposed effectively means that health care reform will be decided by whichever clever television advertising is most convincing. Finally, once pursued, there is little chance of repairing the financing mechanism. Either way, it is a poor way to make complex, far-reaching public policy such as health care for all our residents. …

Not exactly a surprise.

** THE KENNEDYS ENDORSE OBAMA. Full text of Senator Ted Kennedy’s speech this afternoon at the American University, Washington, D.C. Thank you, Caroline. Thank you for that wonderful introduction and for your courage and bold vision, for your insight and understanding, and for the power and reach of your words. Like you, we too “want a president who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again.” Thank you, Caroline. Your mother and father would be so proud today.

My friends, I ask you to join in this historic journey — to have the courage to choose change. It is time again for a new generation of leadership. It is time now for Barack Obama.

** A BRIEF COMMENT. With regard to the Kennedy message in endorsing Barack Obama today. You can see in Ted Kennedy’s remarks an implicit, well, actually, explicit rebuke to the attacks leveled on Obama by Bill and Hillary Clinton. It is clear that now the former president will have someone else to tangle with when he decides again to attack the first black candidate for president with a real chance at gaining the office. (With all due respect to the formidable Jesse Jackson.)

Sources close to the Kennedy family, in this case, very close, tell me that the principals in the family were and are quite perturbed by the Clintons’ tactics in recent weeks. They intend to put a stop to it. If the tactics do not stop, they intend to make the Clintons pay.

Also of interest is Ted Kennedy’s references to his assassinated brothers, President John Kennedy and Senator Robert Kennedy. Kennedy watchers know that this is not done lightly, if at all. Usually, in fact, not at all. Yet with regard to this young, arriviste, half-black, half-white freshman senator from Illinois, it is done quite freely. This is remarkable.

** BLESSING IN DISGUISE FOR SCHWARZENEGGER? The inside word, for what that is worth, is that Governor Arnold Schwarznegger’s quest for a universal health care program for California is likely to die today in the state Senate. Which, if I may be so bold, would likely be a blessing in disguise for the former action superstar. Having a humongous tax, er, fee program hanging out there until November — when voters would have to approve it — would make for a difficult year in what is already a difficult year, given the state’s chronic budget woes with the latest downturn in the business cycle. Not having to defend a Rube Goldberg-style social engineering program all year is not exactly a negative in this context. But what do I know?

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil has again dropped below $90 per barrel, on renewed fears of a US and global economic slowdown.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is backing John McCain in Tuesday’s
key Florida Republican primary.

The week ahead in presidential politics precedes two of the biggest showdowns in history on next week’s Super-Duper Tuesday, and includes California debates in both parties. We have Hillary & Bill Clinton trying to overcome an historic whipping in South Carolina at the hands of Barack Obama, the notably disgusted Kennedys coming after the Clintons, and John McCain and Mitt Romney duking it out in the only major contest of the week, the Florida Republican primary.

In all calculations, California is very much in play on February 5th, as a key decider for both parties.

First, a brand new Florida tracking poll. The Zogby tracking poll for Reuters, conducted over the weekend through last night, has John McCain slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 33% to 30%, with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee far back at 14% and 11%, respectively. At this point, the impact of Rudy Giuliani in the race is to make it more difficult for John McCain to win. And who thought we’d be saying that six months ago?

This week the Democrats and Republicans have their pre-Super Tuesday debates in California. On Wednesday, the Republicans debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, a distant suburb of Los Angeles. On Thursday, the Democrats debate in Los Angeles. At the end of the week, Republicans hold caucuses in Maine. On the Republican side, we will begin to see if the troubled incumbent party chooses a war hero with appeal to independents, or a recent former moderate-turned-hard right conservative. But the more dramatic storyline is in the Democratic race, at the moment, and it is a close call, with a resurgent Barack Obama looking to hammer Hillary again. Or, another way of putting it, the Kennedys vs. the Clintons.

John F. Kennedy announces a naval blockade during the Cuban
Missile Crisis. The Kennedys are coming out today for Obama.

As I’ve already reported, and as many in the the political world now know — Senator Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy, the only surviving brother and child of ultra-Democratic icon JFK — are rallying today with Barack and Michelle Obama at the American University in Washington, D.C. The Kennedys, not to put too fine a point on it, like and are impressed by Obama. And sources close to them say, are frankly appalled by the behavior of the Clintons. Which they regard as cheap, race-baiting, calculatingly vicious nonsense. And that would be the good part.

Caroline Kennedy, author of an impassioned essay in yesterday’s New York Times entitled “A President Like My Father,” who I’ve met and talked with, is a private person who doesn’t run around making endorsements, so the fact that she is stepping forward is striking in itself. But her uncle is a political pro, and he will be campaigning throughout much of the country, and particularly the West, focusing on labor and Latino voters for Obama. Which, fortunately for the Democratic icon, not to mention Obama, happen to be areas of vulnerability for the freshman Illinois senator in a Democratic contest.

Former President Bill Clinton’s strategy — which he made crystalline in its clarity when he and his wife were were blown out in South Carolina, by denigrating Obama’s historically big South Carolina primary win by saying Jesse Jackson won there, too (in low-turnout caucuses, the part he neglected to mention) — is to cast Obama as “the black candidate.” Though he would deny that is his aim. While he may be fooling some voters, using his sustaining credibility as a former president, he is fooling no one among the ranks of operatives and knowledgeable reporters.

But the Kennedys get at that strategy. They are champions of labor, and of Latinos. Ted Kennedy has been the foremost Senate advocate for organized labor. And his brother Bobby did more than any other Anglo politician — with the possible exception of Jerry Brown, who is presently neutral — for Latinos. I’ve seen pictures of John and Robert Kennedy in the labor camp shacks of Latino workers. But none of Bill or Hillary Clinton.

And so yesterday, Caroline Kennedy, the only surviving child of the Democrats’ version of Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy, published an impassioned essay in the New York Times entitled “A President Like My Father.” I’ve met and talked with JFK’s daughter, who is private, dignified, and not at all given to issuing endorsements, not to mention going out of her way to trade on her father’s legendary name. This is unusual for her. As she put it: “Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible. We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.”

Her endorsement is already resonating with opinion leaders, many of whom have notably soured on Bill and Hillary Clinton. The disdain for their tactics, for example, from everyone on yesterday morning’s Meet The Press panel, was palpable.

Today Caroline Kennedy and her uncle Ted do a noontime rally with Barack and Michelle Obama at the American University in Washington. Which happens to have been the site of a JFK speech about a potential breakthrough in the Cold War. Which never came to pass, since he was assassinated not long after.

Mitt Romney’s Spanish language TV ad promotes his economic
expertise in the Florida Republican primary.

Incidentally, in this frankly non-intellectual, yet self-consciously intellectualized, hyperpartisan era, in which the redhots of both parties are remarkably ignorant about one another, I know a lot of key operatives in both the major parties, Democrats and Republicans. Who is the Democrat Republicans fear most? Barack Obama. Who is the Republican Democrats fear most? John McCain.

Republicans I know like the idea of running against Hillary Clinton, as it stirs up their base and she has remarkably high negatives, though they also respect the Clintons’ political combat skills. Democrats I know like the idea of running against Mitt Romney, who they view as a flip-flopper who has adopted views to win a primary that are too conservative for a general election, though they recognize that he is smart and smooth and personally well-funded, if hardly on a Michael Bloomberg level.

This week, we will get a better idea of how the contest in both parties plays out.

Will Obama get a big boost from his huge win in South Carolina? Will the backing of the Kennedys help him overcome the entrenched power of the Clinton machine?

On the Republican side, if McCain wins in Florida, he is the frontrunner. His new leads in polls of major Super-Duper Tuesday states such as California, New York, and New Jersey will then become more concrete, though megabucks Romney can always fight on. If Romney wins Florida, the contest goes back to a muddle.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Barack Obama’s victory speech after his 29-point win over
Hillary Clinton in South Carolina.

** OBAMA TRUTH SQUAD FORMED, CAMPAIGNS DUEL OVER PHONE BANKS. Barack Obama’s campaign in California has just formed a “truth squad,” announced via conference call, to counter the sorts of attacks that Hillary Clinton’s campaign has leveled in recent weeks. On the call were squad members Bay Area Congressman George Miller, LA Congresswoman Linda Sanchez, Oakland Congresswoman Barbara Lee, and LA County Labor Federation chief Maria Elena Durazo, now a national co-chair of the Obama campaign. Also on the squad are Silicon Valley Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, LA Congressman Adam Schiff, state Senate Majority Leader Gloria Romero, Assembly Majority Leader Karen Bass, and, of course, San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris.

Miller, one of the top congresional Democrats as head of the House Democratic Policy Committee and chairman of the Education & Labor Committee, noted that the truth squad was formed to deal with a threat that may or may not exist any longer. “We don’t know yet,” he said. “The Clinton campaign may have learned its lesson from South Carolina,” where voters mostly rejected the Clinton tactics, as exit polls make clear. Will former President Clinton, historically popular in California, be a problem for Obama in the nation’s largest primary? “I think there is a rethink underway about what he is doing.”

For her part, Durazo, one of the leading Latina labor leaders in America, acknowledged that Clinton has had the edge to date with Latino voters, but noted that the more they get to know about Obama’s background as a community organizer in Chicago, and his views on stimulating the economy, the better he does. And that “the support of Senator Kennedy, and we hope it comes, would be very important.” Kennedy is definitely for Obama, but she was deferential to his formal announcement at a rally tomorrow at the American University in Washington, D.C., with Caroline Kennedy and Barack and Michelle Obama.

Meanwhile, the Obama and Clinton campaigns had dueling statewide phoning “parties” over the weekend, and claimed hundreds of thousands of completed calls to voters between them. As Obama California co-chairman Steve Westly, one of the Illinois senator’s earliest backers and biggest financial supporters, pointed out going into the weekend, the Obama effort has focused heavily on independent voters. The public polls in California, in which Obama trailed prior to his 2 to 1 South Carolina victory over Clinton, by significant margins, have had relatively low independent turnout scenarios.

Incidentally, on one of the Sunday chat shows today — and I forget which one offhand, as this begins to blur and I should be taking a brief break — Hillary Clinton tacitly acknowledged her husband’s untoward behavior in the campaign. She chalked it up to love for her and sleep deficit. However, I can tell you that, according to well-informed sources, the Kennedys, now coming out heavily for Obama today and tomorrow, are distinctly unamused by the Clintons’ mode of campaigning. Not just in South Carolina — because that Caroline Kennedy essay in today’s New York Times was not really written and placed yesterday — but for the past several weeks.

UPDATE: Ted Kennedy will appear with Caroline Kennedy tomorrow at an already scheduled Barack Obama noontime rally at the American University in Washington to make public his support for the freshman Illinois senator’s presidential candidacy. This is a thunderclap for the Clintons. You’ve already read the endorsement below of Caroline Kennedy, JFK’s daughter, from this morning’s New York Times, entitled “A President Like My Father.” Ted Kennedy, of course, is JFK’s brother, and the Senate’s liberal lion.

** TED KENNEDY TO ENDORSE OBAMA. The rumor, circulating for weeks, appears to be true. ABC News has just reported that Senator Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president.

** CAROLINE KENNEDY. From Caroline Kennedy’s essay in the Sunday New York Times, “A President Like My Father:” Over the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.

We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960.

I’ve met and talked with Caroline Kennedy. She’s a private, dignified, and lovely person who does not run around making endorsements, or go out of her way to trade on her father’s name. Her endorsement is already resonating with opinion leaders, many of whom have notably soured on Bill and Hillary Clinton. The disdain for their tactics, for example, from everyone on this morning’s Meet The Press panel was palpable.

** CTA MEMBERS REBUFF LEADERSHIP ON CLINTON ENDORSEMENT, OBAMA WINS BECERRA ENDORSEMENT. The most powerful union in California politics is, by far, the principal teachers union in the Golden State, the California Teachers Association. Its endorsement committee, dominated by its leadership, unanimously recommended the endorsement of Hillary Clinton. CTA delegates normally rubber stamp leadership recommendations on endorsements.

But the 800 delegates representing the membership rebelled yesterday in LA, voting overwhelmingly against the Clinton endorsement. It was a remarkable inside baseball coup for the Barack Obama campaign in California. This occurred before Obama’s landslide win over Hillary in South Carolina. CTA is neutral in the race.

In another boost for Obama’s California campaign, the freshman Illinois senator has just picked up the endorsement of LA Congressman Xavier Becerra, another good get for a campaign struggling with the Latino vote. (Which has been much discussed on NWN.) Becerra is assistant to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

** FLORIDA TRACKING POLL: MCCAIN-ROMNEY DEAD HEAT. The battle in Tuesday’s Florida Republcian primary remains tight, with the latest Zogby tracking poll for Reuters showing a dead heat. Here are the numbers: John McCain 30%, Mitt Romney 30%, Mike Huckabee 14%, Rudy Giuliani 13%. Saturday polling is notoriously tricky, for obvious reasons.

McCain yesterday blasted Romney for equivocating on the US military surge in Iraq, saying at a critical moment last April, Romney favored a secret “timetable” for US withdrawal. Romney said McCain was lying.

This morning on Meet The Press, McCain was asked at the top of the show about the controversy. He responded by pulling Romney’s quote from April 2007 out of his pocket and reading it aloud. Romney already has a reputation as a flip-flopper which has Democrats chomping at the bit.

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger had this to say about Romney: “The next President of the United States must be a leader of courage, not a weather vane who shifts in the wind. John McCain will not waver in the face of the enemy. He’s been tested under fire in war and did not wilt on Iraq when the polls went south and the drumbeat for withdrawal grew louder. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Governor Romney. When it came to unequivocally advocating and supporting the successful surge in Iraq, John McCain was rock solid while Governor Romney sought political cover by indicating his support for ’secret’ withdrawal timetables. At a critical moment, John McCain proved that he was ready to be Commander in Chief. Unfortunately, Governor Romney didn’t. Governor Romney failed the test of leadership on the most crucial national security issue facing the United States with American combat forces in the field; he wilted. John McCain stood tall.”

John McCain sings Streisand, by popular demand of the ever
charming NWN posters. From Saturday Night Live, 2002.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed at $90.71 per barrel, as fears of a global economic meltdown recede, at least for the moment. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Campaigning in North Charleston, South Carolina, Barack Obama
talks about Washington double speak.

Excerpted from my reports on PJ Media …

7:30 PM PST — GAME DAY CLOSE-OUT: OBAMA WINS. BILL CLINTON LOSES.

Well, as yesterday and today unfolded, I expected Barack Obama to win a significant victory in South Carolina. But wondered if his share of the white vote — he has done extremely well with white voters in the first three contests, but South Carolina presented a different profile of voter — would be very small. And expected his margin of victory to be in the low single digits.

In the event, of course, he has beaten Hillary Clinton by better than 2 to 1. In an election with a record turnout, much higher than last Saturday’s Republican primary turnout in this usually Republican state. Actually, Obama won more votes than John McCain and Mike Huckabee, the top two Republicans in South Carolina, combined.

Obama’s support among white voters had dropped to 10% in late week tracking polls. But he ended up with a quarter of the white vote, and four-fifths of the black vote.

After another week of bruising attacks, much of it again generated by the very popular former president of the United States, this time it was Obama who surged at the end.

The final vote is this: Obama 55.4%, Clinton 26.5%, and John Edwards 17.6%. Edwards is staying in the race. It is almost certain that had he dropped out after losing Iowa, his must-win state, that Obama would have won New Hampshire no matter what stratagems Bill and Hillary Clinton came up with for her late minute surge. But it may well be that Edwards, going forward, has enough strength with working class white male voters to, in essence, help Obama.

Bill Clinton probably knows this. He spent the past week working South Carolina not only to engage Obama as his wife’s chief attack dog, but also to blunt Edwards. And this is why the Clinton campaign hit Edwards late with robocalls charging him with voting for free trade agreements and being an operator with a hedge fund. Which, of course, is true of them as well. Especially since Clinton himself pushed through NAFTA.

Bill Clinton may be responsible for Hillary’s wins in New Hampshire and Nevada. But in South Carolina, most voters said that his behavior was critical to their choice. And that proved to be a big negative.

Obama gave another of his excellent speeches, proclaiming: “The choice in this election is not about regions or religions or genders. It’s not about rich versus poor, young versus old and it’s not about black versus white. It’s about the past versus the future. … We are up against conventional thinking that says your ability to lead as president comes from longevity in Washington or proximity to the White House. But we know that real leadership is about candor, and judgment, and the ability to rally Americans from all walks of life around a common purpose – a higher purpose.”

For their parts, the Clintons put out a brief, perfunctory statement of congratulations, barely mentioning South Carolina, dwelling as much on the unsanctioned Florida primary coming up — which Clinton and all the candidates agreed to ignore, per party rules — as on her landslide loss today. Hillary declined to give a concession speech, and — having already left for Tennessee — barely mentioned today’s primary. Having congratulated Obama with a brief sentence, she continued with her stump speech at a town hall meeting.

And Bill Clinton? His take is that Jesse Jackson won the South Carolina primary. Twice. That was it.

Bill Clinton is an outstanding political talent, a master of putting together a flurry of tactical moves to eke out wins, covering hardball play with aw-shucks charm. He sought to frame — as was very clear with tonight’s comments — the Democratic race along racial lines. This was after claiming that Obama was a fan of Ronald Reagan — when, actually, Clinton himself spoke far more fulsomely about the Gipper — claimed that Obama really wasn’t against the Iraq War. After late last year claiming that he himself had been against the invasion, which was news to all.

Incidentally, Clinton’s comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson was unprompted, apropos of nothing, answering an unrelated question.

Similarly, dabbling with Dr. Pavlov’s tools in the Republican primaries — where John McCain has a narrow lead in a Florida primary that really does count — he yesterday praised McCain highly, claiming that he and his wife are close friends who would run the friendliest campaign in American history.

Since McCain has been running around saying Hillary would “run up the white flag of surrender” in Iraq, that was, ah, an interesting take. Clearly Clinton was out to provide a frame for the Republican race, as well, that is favorable to his interests.

Yesterday, however, McCain picked up the endorsement of Florida Senator Mel Martinez, the former Bush Cabinet member and Republican national chairman who is the most prominent Cuban-American politician in the country. Today, he got the endorsement of Florida Governor Charlie Crist, a friend of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s, as he layed into Romney for earlier backing a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq.

Bill Clinton’s not the only politician who can create a frame, and use words to create optical illusions. He does have the advantage that others have not had; namely, the stature of having been president of the United States. And having had the opportunity to polish up his tarnished presidential image as, in my view, one of the premier global statesmen. But now, a great many people are fed up with the routine, as is obvious from the result tonight.

None of which is to count the Clintons out. More about that in the future.

4:10 PM PST — BIG OBAMA WIN. BACKLASH BILL?

Well, as anticipated, a big win for Barack Obama, with Hillary Clinton battling with John Edwards for second. A little over half the vote was African American. According to the media exit poll, Obama won the vote over Hillary Clinton, 81% to 17%. John Edwards got 1%..

Hillary also lost the white vote, which was won by Edwards, 39% to 36%. Obama got a respectable 24% of the white vote, up significantly from where he was a few days ago in tracking polling.

57% said that Bill Clinton’s activity was influential in their choice. Apparently, not favorably.

This explains why, as I reported earlier today … Hillary left South Carolina to spend election night in Nashville, Tennesse. Which doesn’t vote for another 10 days. And why the Clinton campaign put out that extraordinary spin document, which I presented and deconstructed for you. And why the Clintons hit Edwards late for voting for free trade deals — which they actually supported — and taking Wall Street money.

More to say as this further develops.

3 PM PST — Early SC Exits

Here’s some preliminary data from the media exit poll. It doesn’t include horse race numbers.

Given three choices, half the voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country — up from 38 percent in the only other competitive Democratic primary to date, in New Hampshire on Jan. 8. About a quarter picked health care, comparable to New Hampshire. Only about one in five picked Iraq, down from 27 percent in New Hampshire.

Roughly four out of five voters would be satisfied if Clinton or Obama wins the Democratic nomination. Slightly more Clinton voters would be dissatisfied with Obama than vice-versa. Slightly more Obama voters say Clinton would be more likely to be the eventual Democratic nominee than vice-versa.

1:15 pm PST — South Carolina Moods II

On the mid-afternoon mood in the Palmetto State … Correspondent Anthony Palmer reports: “I was out in front of the Statehouse in Columbia and the Edwards/Clinton/Obama supporters were out in full force. Edwards seemed to have a lot of support, judging from the honks and cheers I was hearing as the cars drove by. The Obama supporters were mostly black, the Clinton supporters were mostly female, and the Edwards supporters seemed the most diverse.”

Says correspondent Jeff Shrewsworthy: “As far as turnout goes, I’ve got two direct reports — one from Columbia said more than 300 had voted in one downtown district by 3 p.m., which is about three times as many as voted in the entire primary in 2004. (When John Edwards defeated John Kerry for his sole primary win.)

“And the same kind of report from a friend in a rural county. They already had 200 voters at a rural district that barely got 100 in the last primary overall.”

Palmer asks: “Obviously, this is just a small sample of what’s going on, but could Edwards really edge Clinton out for second place? CNN and Fox and all the national networks in Columbia and some foreign media companies are too, so it looks like this election is generating a lot of attention.”

The eyes of the world come to many places in America every four years.

As to the question of Edwards. He had late closing potential in several tracking polls. But former President Bill Clinton, the most successful Southern politician of our time, spent the week in South Carolina not only to engage Barack Obama (and make mischief for Republican rival John McCain in Florida with yesterday’s framing comments to CNN), but also to block John Edwards. Who, ironically, was at one point something of a protege of Bill Clinton’s.

The Clinton campaign has been making robocalls to South Carolina voters hitting John Edwards for voting for free trade deals and for working for a hedge fund. Of course, Hillary also voted for free trade deals, and Bill Clinton pushed through NAFTA. And Hillary is one of the biggest recipients of hedge fund contributions around.

Noon — PST — The Clinton Machine Spins Up

Here is a piece of near real-time spin doctoring from the Clinton machine. Which downplays today’s South Carolina primary and plays up Florida on Tuesday. Which, actually, by decision of the Democratic National Committee, and with all the presidential candidates taking a mutual pledge, is not a real primary.

I’ve interpolated some reality checks amidst the my-head-is-spinning text.

To: Interested Parties
From: Howard Wolfson, Communications Director
Re: South Carolina, Florida, and February 5
Date: January 26, 2008

Cornell Belcher, Senator Obama’s pollster, stated explicitly to the Politico on July 25, 2007, “We are going to outright win South Carolina.”

[REALITY CHECK: Hillary led almost all last year, frequently by large margins, and until a few weeks was neck and neck in South Carolina. She might be neck and neck again, as polls can be off. The Clinton campaign, however, obviously does not think so.]

And today, Senator Obama leads by 12, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls taken in South Carolina over the last 10 days.

[REALITY CHECK: It's best not to contradict yourself in the same sentence. "As of today" means today. Maybe yesterday. It does not mean "the last 10 days."

Despite Senator Obama’s large lead, Senator Clinton has campaigned across the Palmetto State, reaching out and asking for each and every vote. She has heard directly from South Carolinians about their concerns and their hopes for a stronger, more prosperous America.

Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday.

[REALITY CHECK: "The race quickly shifts to Florida." Not really. There is no race in Florida for the Democrats. Florida violated national Democratic Party rules by moving its primary up. All of the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida. No campaigning, no race.]

Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5th.

[REALITY CHECK: A few days ago, Wolfson accused the Obama campaign of, wait for it, violating the Democratic Party agreement not to campaign in Florida. The supposed violation? Obama bought time to run TV ads on national cable networks. Welcome to the world of up is down.]

This remains a delegate fight, with 1,681 delegates at stake on February 5th, and 2,025 needed to secure the nomination — and we are ahead in that fight.

Coming off of victories in Nevada, Michigan and New Hampshire, Senator Clinton has demonstrated the importance of focusing on achieving real solutions on the economy, health care and Iraq.

[REALITY CHECK: "Coming off of victories in Nevada, Michigan and New Hampshire ..." Well, two out of three ain't bad. Again, Wolfson, someone whose cycle, as you see, is perpetually stuck on spin, is attempting to rewrite history. Like Florida, Michigan was not a real Democratic primary. Like Florida, Michigan violated national Democratic Party rules by moving its primary up. All of the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida and Michigan. Like Florida, no delegates were awarded in Michigan. No campaigning, no race.]

As she campaigns throughout the United States over the coming weeks, Senator Clinton will continue to work hard for every vote, making sure that Americans know she will be a President who focuses on what matters most—making a difference in people’s lives.

[REALITY CHECK: There is nothing beyond the bounds of normal political spin in that sentence.]

11:15 am PST — South Carolina Moods

With South Carolina elections officials saying they expect a record turnout in today’s first-in-the-South Democratic presidential primary, correspondents are reporting in from the Palmetto State.

Says correspondent Anthony Palmer: “Well, the weather shouldn’t be holding any voters back like it may have during the Republican primary. It’s about 50 degrees and cloudy, but it doesn’t look like it will rain.

“A lot of black voters seem to be angry with the Clintons and are expressing more interest in voting for Obama. Of course, that would play into the possible strategy the Clintons have adopted in ceding the black vote to him for the sake of winning the white vote later on. But others are talking about supporting Edwards even though they like Obama because they want Edwards to beat Clinton. That would embarrass her. The bottom line is, the Clintons’ attacks and rhetoric are not going over well and are revealing a side of themselves that many had never seen before.”

Correspondent Jeff Shrewsbury notes: “It’s beautiful today in the upstate and throughout. A little rain in Charleston but otherwise, sunny and mild temps. Little turnout so far in Columbia, at least in most of the precincts I’ve heard from friends voting, but that’s not too unusual for a Saturday vote. I suspect by late afternoon there will be more traffic.”

10:07 am PST — Hillary Heads Out Of Town

Hillary Clinton, perhaps anticipating defeat in South Carolina today, is heading out of town. She’ll be in Tennessee tonight, rather than South Carolina, to celebrate her showing. The Volunteer State votes on Mega-Super Tuesday, February 5th.
While it’s not uncommon for presidential candidates to move on to the next contest on a primary election night, Hillary and Bill Clinton were both most assuredly in New Hampshire to celebrate her shocker, narrow victory in that primary two-and-a-half weeks ago. They did not expect to win there, and on election day, her people were wondering if they could spin a 5 to 7-point loss into a victory of sorts.

The Clintons have been playing an interesting game of expectations this week. After her big duke-a-roo of a debate Monday night in Myrtle Beach with Barack Obama, she flew to California for a big rally and to accept the endorsement of the United Farm Workers. She didn’t return to South Carolina until Thursday, when she gave a major economic address.

Meanwhile, however, the big dog himself, former President Bill Clinton was campaigning all along in South Carolina, sometimes with daughter Chelsea in tow.
Since it is actually the former president who is — or at least, has been — the most popular Democrat in the country, and his intervention was critical in Hillary’s narrow wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, that goes the other way on the expectations curve.

THE MORNING COLUMN

Today is another big day in presidential politics, with the South Carolina Democratic primary, which I’ll be covering throughout the day with correspondents and contacts in and out of the state. Although today does not look as suspenseful, with last night’s tracking poll showing a solid lead for Barack Obama.

The new Zogby tracking poll for Reuters, conducted, Thursday and Friday nights, shows Obama leading Hillary Clinton, 41% to 26%, with John Edwards at 19%. That’s consistent with most of the polls from yesterday, though some showed a closer race. Edwards has closed some on Clinton in the last few days, and is now tied with her among white voters.

Incidentally, the Zogby tracking poll for Reuters of Tuesday’s key Florida primary shows John McCain with a slight edge over Mitt Romney, 31% to 28%, as Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee fight it out for third place with 15% and 10%, respectively.

In South Carolina, Obama is leading in all regions, among left-wing, liberal, and moderate voters, and among men and women. Of course, this seeming dominance is possible because he appears to have consolidated the African American vote, which is about half of the primary electorate in the Palmetto State. Among white voters, he runs third.

The weather is fine, and a big turnout is expected by state and party officials.

It’s “Game Day: South Carolina.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s South Carolina Democratic primary coverage throughout the day on Saturday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored on New West Notes. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” and “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina” packages.

Hillary Clinton answers questions from more of the young people.

With former President Bill Clinton campaigning most of the week in the state, at first Obama’s support among men dropped. That appears to have reversed. So the combative and mischievous ex-occupant of La Maison Blanche played another little game yesterday — telling a credulous CNN that Hillary and John McCain are best friends — which is obviously calculated to stir up conservative Republicans enough to cost McCain Florida. Perhaps his hopes for South Carolina have not been realized, and he’s looking at the next round of tearing it up.

Could Edwards actually catch Hillary? Possibly, but she’s back in the state now, too, and clearly has no intention of finishing third.

Could Clinton catch Obama? It doesn’t seem likely. If Obama’s support goes down at the actual polls, he may suffer from the expectations game, with Hillary doing better than expected. In that case, Obama’s win would come with a big discount. But another result is more likely.

It also may come with a cost. Clinton campaign maneuvers are succeeding in positioning Obama — who has a unique multi-racial appeal — as the black candidate. Obama has actually won huge numbers of white votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. In South Carolina, he’s running third among whites. This is because white Democrats there are more conservative, and because the vote there is becoming polarized along racial lines. As it is in the national poll discussed below.

John Edwards says he was the grown-up in Monday night’s
tumultuous South Carolina debate.

The new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll has John McCain opening up a lead nationally among Republicans over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani trailing. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards way behind the leaders.

National polls have been largely meaningless to date, but now become important with the many contests of Super Tuesday now looming on the horizon.
On the Republican side, Giuliani’s poll meltdown is striking. His favorable rating has been cut in half since last spring.

On the Democratic side, what jumps out of the numbers is the increasing racial polarization of the race. Obama is now consolidating the black vote, but as that happens, Hillary’s lead among white voters is going up.

Here are the numbers. Republicans: John McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 23%, Mitt Romney 20%, Rudy Giuliani 15%. (Fred Thompson’s support splintered, rather than go to Romney as some had prophesied.) Democrats: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 32%, John Edwards 12%.

Here are a few more polls to ponder as South Carolinians go to the real polls. Yesterday’s Survey USA robopoll of the South Carolina Democratic primary gave a signficant edge to Barack Obama, with Hillary Clinton fending off John Edwards for second. Here are the South Carolina Democratic numbers. Obama 43%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 24%.

The same polling service’s tracking poll for Tuesday’s key Florida Republican primary gives a very slight edge to John McCain over Mitt Romney, with the fading Rudy Giuliani fighting it out with Mike Huckabee for third. Here are the Florida Republican numbers: McCain 30%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 14%.

The Florida poll does take into account Romney’s good performance in the Boca Raton debate, but does not account for Senator Mel Martinez’s backing of McCain, a key “get” for McCain in courting the big Cuban-American vote.

In a Public Policy Polling track Thursday night of 595 likely South Carolina Democratic voters, Barack Obama held a large lead over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards relatively close to her in third. Here are the numbers. Obama 44%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%. Other polls have shown a closer race between Obama and Clinton.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil closed at $90.71 per barrel, as fears of a global economic meltdown recede, at least for the moment. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Saying “the Bush economy is like a trap door” in this new ad, Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama in South Carolina but leads in national and California polls.

** LATE POLLS. A few more polls coming in. The Survey USA robopoll of tomorrow’s South Carolina Democratic primary gives a signficant edge to Barack Obama, with Hillary Clinton fending off John Edwards for second.

Here are the South Carolina Democratic numbers. Obama 43%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 24%.

The same polling service’s tracking poll for Tuesday’s key Florida Republican primary gives a very slight edge to John McCain over Mitt Romney, with the fading Rudy Giuliani fighting it out with Mike Huckabee for third.

Here are the Florida Republican numbers: McCain 30%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 14%.

The Florida poll does take into account Romney’s good performance in the Boca Raton debate, but does not account for Senator Mel Martinez’s backing of McCain.

** OBAMA AND CLINTON FORCES DUEL IN CALIFORNIA OVER LATINO LEADERSHIP AS DURAZO BECOMES OBAMA NATIONAL CO-CHAIR. Barack Obama today appointed Maria Elena Durazo, head of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, as a national co-chair of his campaign. Durazo, as discussed below, heads Southern California’s most powerful labor federation and is a longtime leader in the UNITE HERE union. She and others held a series of economic roundtables today with workers in Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego, and San Francisco. And Durazo introduced the first Spanish language TV ad.

Not to be outdone, the Clinton campaign announced that it will open a new East LA office tomorrow morning on Cesar Chavez Avenue. Heading up the event will be Congresswomen Hilda Solis, Grace Napolitano, and Lucille Roybal-Allard, and United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta.

** SCHWARZENEGGER KICKS OFF REDISTRICTING REFORM DRIVE. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political committee, the California Dream Team — formerly the California Recovery Team, and maybe the old name should be brought back — today instigated the signature gathering portion of a proposed redistricting reform initiative for the November ballot. Spokeswoman Julie Soderlund says the former action superstar’s committee has just made an initial $50,000 contribution to get the ball rolling, and expressed confidence that they have plenty of time to qualify the measure.

Schwarznegger has been pushing for redistricting reform since before he first ran for governor in 2003, with a somewhat flawed measure calling for a mid-decade redistricting going down to defeat in 2005.

** OBAMA LAUNCHES SPANISH LANGUAGE TV AD IN L.A. The Barack Obama campaign today is first to begin Spanish language TV advertising in California. Maria Elena Durazo introduced the ad on a media conference call. Durazo is chief of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor and a longtime leader of UNITE HERE, the union representing the hotel, food service, apparel and textile manufacturing, laundry, warehouse, and casino industries. Her backing for Obama is as an individual; the powerful LA County Labor Fed is neutral.

The ad begins running today in the huge Los Angeles media market on Univision and Telemundo. It focuses on Obama’s life story as the son of an immigrant who became a community organizer. Obama has been having a problem with the Latino vote. His story is not well known, and this is an effort to correct that problem.

Here is the translated script (VO=VoiceOver, BO=Barack Obama): VO: Do you remember the dream that brought you or your parents to this country? BO: Hope — hope is what led me here today. With a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas and a story that could only happen in the United States of America.

VO: You’re not alone. We’re millions. Ordinary people, cooks, construction workers, professionals, heads of house, who together can believe with Barack Obama that we can indeed do extraordinary things. That we can bring peace and leave a better world for our children and that we can create a just and United America. BO: In this election — in this moment — let us reach for what we know is possible. A nation healed. A world repaired. An America that believes again.

** FLORIDA SENATOR BACKS MCCAIN. John McCain, locked in a tight race in Florida with Mitt Romney, is getting a big boost for Tuesday’s primary. Senator Mel Martinez, a former Bush Cabinet member and Republican national chairman, is endorsing him and will be campaigning with him. This is an important move in getting the support not only of Martinez’s overall state constituents, but of the key Cuban-American vote. McCain already has three key Cuban-American members of Congress from the Miami area.

I know that Governor Charlie Crist, who shares with McCain and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a deep concern about climate change, has been considering an endorsement, but don’t know the status.

** ANOTHER SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL. In a Public Policy Polling track last night of 595 likely voters in tomorrow’s South Carolina Democratic primary, Barack Obama held a large lead over Hillary Clinton, with John Edwards relatively close to her in third. Here are the numbers. Obama 44%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%. Other polls have shown a closer race between Obama and Clinton.

** SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL The latest Zogby tracking poll for Reuters shows some slippage for Barack Obama and a rise for John Edwards, who is in hailing distance of Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 38%, Clinton 25%, and Edwards 21%.

With former President Bill Clinton campaigning in the state, Obama’s support among men has dropped. Could Edwards actually catch Hillary? Possibly, but she’s back in the state now, too, and clearly has no intention of finishing third.

Could Clinton catch Obama? Probably not, but here we get to the expectations game. Hillary led in South Carolina for most of last year, until Oprah — hey, where she is now? — helped crystallize Obama’s backing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Post-Oprah, and post-Iowa, Obama has opened up a big lead in South Carolina. If that wilts under the double-barreled attack of Bill and Hill, his victory may come with a big discount.

It also may come with a cost. Clinton campaign maneuvers are succeeding in positioning Obama — who has a unique multi-racial appeal — as the black candidate. Obama has actually won huge numbers of white votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. In South Carolina, he’s running third among whites. This is because white Democrats there are more conservative, and because the vote there is becoming polarized along racial lines. As it is in the national poll discussed below.

** TOMORROW — GAME DAY: SOUTH CAROLINA. Tomorrow, it’s “Game Day: South Carolina.” I’ll be anchoring PJ Media network’s South Carolina Democratic primary coverage throughout the day on Saturday, weaving together reports and information from correspondents and contacts inside and outside Nevada and South Carolina. The anchor coverage will be linked to and mirrored here on NWN. This will be a continuation of the “Game Day: Iowa,” “Game Day: New Hampshire,” “Game Day: Michigan And Vegas,” and “Game Day: Nevada And South Carolina” packages.

John McCain, backed yesterday by Sylvester Stallone, leads
California and national Republican polls and runs best against
Clinton and Obama.

** NATIONAL POLL: MCCAIN AND CLINTON LEAD. The new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll has John McCain opening up a lead nationally among Republicans over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, with Rudy Giuliani trailing. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards way behind the leaders.

National polls have been largely meaningless to date, but now become important with the many contests of Super Tuesday now looming on the horizon.

On the Republican side, Giuliani’s poll meltdown is striking. His favorable rating has been cut in half since last spring.

On the Democratic side, what jumps out of the numbers is the increasing racial polarization of the race. Obama is now consolidating the black vote, but as that happens, Hillary’s lead among white voters is going up.

And here are the numbers.

Republicans: John McCain 29%, Mike Huckabee 23%, Mitt Romney 20%, Rudy Giuliani 15%. (Fred Thompson’s support splintered, rather than go to Romney as some had prophesied.)

Democrats: Hillary Clinton 47%, Barack Obama 32%, John Edwards 12%.

Mitt Romney did well in last night’s Republican debate and leads
in some Florida polls.

** LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE. Well, compared to the knock down, drag out Democrats on Monday night in South Carolina, the Republicans in Florida were downright sedate. Actually, they were sedate by any measure. Mitt Romney had a good night, looking strikingly rested. John McCain also did well, as did Mike Huckabee, who is starting to look like a good running mate for McCain.

Romney sounded impressive talking about the economy. No one attacked him for his flip flops, so he was able to project a confidence that hasn’t always come through in these events. McCain was strongest on national security, of course, with the other candidates, including Rudy Giuliani, who was okay, practically deferring to him. But the economy was the main topic of the debate, which worked to the advantage of Romney, who got the most air time.

McCain backs the bipartisan stimulus emerging in the House and Senate, but Romney has upped the ante with a much bigger proposed stimulus plan. How exactly he pays for it he didn’t really say, and he went essentially unchallenged by both his competitors and, surprisingly, the moderators.

All the campaigns evidently made the decision to avoid anything approaching the slugfest of Monday night, instead choosing to showcase their candidates’ best sides to the voters. In addition to the cable audience of MSNBC, the debate was carried on NBC affiliate and O&O stations throughout Florida, providing Floridians with their first extended look at the candidates.

** FLORIDA POLL, MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A new Mason-Dixon poll of the Florida Republican primary, taken January 21-23, gives Mitt Romney a narrow lead over John McCain. It’s Romney 30%, McCain 26%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, and Mike Huckabee 13%.

** FLORIDA TRACKING POLL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT. An Insider Advantage poll taken January 23rd shows a dead heat in the Florida Republican primary. It’s John McCain 23%, Mitt Romney 22%, Rudy Giuliani 18%, Mike Huckabee 16%.

** PPIC POLL: LARGE CALIFORNIA LEADS FOR MCCAIN AND CLINTON, TERM LIMITS REVISE IN DEEP WATER, SCHWARZENEGGER APPROVAL DROPS. The new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows John McCain and Hillary Clinton with large leads in the California Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.

On the Republican side, it’s John McCain 29%, Mitt Romney 17%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, and now withdrawn Fred Thompson 10%. Giuliani’s support has plummeted in the Golden State, while McCain’s has shot forward.

On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton 43%, Barack Obama 28%, and John Edwards 11%.

The term limits revision initiative, Prop 93, is in deep trouble, tied at 42%-42%. I’ve previously discussed the problems with the initiative.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval has taken a hit, going from 63% among voters in December to 52% now. That’s still very high for a governor, but down from the stratospheric heights he had enjoyed since his landslide re-election in November 2006.

His problem? His State of the State address, which I didn’t have time to watch, as it came on the day of the New Hampshire presidential primary, was indifferently received. And his budget proposal, a “disaster budget” with huge cuts pretty much everywhere, is distinctly unpopular. But it’s not all bad.

From pollster Marc Baldassare’s statement: Several of the governor’s actions and proposals get a decidedly warmer reception. A majority of adults (64%) agree with the governor’s declaration of a fiscal emergency. Two in three Californians (67%) support his call for about $40 billion in new state bonds for water and education facilities, high-speed rail, and other infrastructure projects. And interestingly, a majority of state adults (64%) say they support the governor’s proposed constitutional amendment to stabilize the budget. In supporting an amendment that would place limits on state spending, require that money be socked away when revenues are high, and allow for budget adjustments at several points throughout the fiscal year, Californians appear ready to take a fresh look at an idea that voters have rejected in the recent past.

A big majority is in favor of higher taxes to preserve K-12 education programs; a large majority favors it for health and human services. But aside from K-12, most Californians are very open to cuts in other programs.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading is trading up in the $90 to $91 per barrel range as fears of a global economic meltdown recede.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bombed at New York’s Columbia
University in 2007. But now he has been invited to Baghdad. As the saying
goes, “The ball keeps bouncing.”

** CALIFORNIA POLL: BIG LEADS FOR MCCAIN AND HILLARY. The new Public Policy Institute of California poll is now out, off embargo at 10 PM, and shows big leads for John McCain in the Republican primary and Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. The term limits revision initiative is tied, below 50%. More to follow tomorrow morning. Other findings: A majority of adults (64%) say they support the governor’s proposed constitutional amendment to stabilize the budget. Nearly eight in 10 adults (78%) are at least somewhat concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s 2008-09 budget proposal. A majority of Democrats (52%) want to deal with the budget gap through a mix of cuts and taxes while most Republicans (56%) prefer spending cuts. Sixty-two percent of all adults oppose extending the state sales tax to services such as legal assistance, auto repairs, and haircuts. But 56 percent support taxing all goods sold over the Internet.

** REPUBLICAN DEBATE. A good performance by Mitt Romney. John McCain also did well, as did Mike Huckabee. A peaceful debate, actually. More tomorrow.

** KEY REPUBLICAN DEBATE TONIGHT. We’ve had a lot of these things, but tonight’s debate in Boca Raton, Florida, is very important. The Florida primary on Tuesday will determine whether or not the Republican Party has a presidential frontrunner. If John McCain wins — and he is in a neck-and-neck race now with Mitt Romney — the Vietnam War hero and famously maverick Western senator is the frontrunner. If he loses, and he may, since independents are not able to vote in the primary in Florida, the Republican race is once again a muddle.

In my view, the Republicans are an even stranger political party than the Democrats. And that is pretty strange. I know who is the most dangerous Republican for Democratic hopes. But those sorts of calculations seem lost on the ideologues whose voices are loudest and most persistent in Republican circles.

The yack show hosts/columnists/commentators/bloggers/activists mostly seem to hate McCain. While actual officials and strategists, for the most part, do not. Why do they hate him? Because they are, to be blunt, hyperpartisans, on the same wave length as the Democratic hyperpartisans who picked, um, John Edwards.

The doctrinal right-wingers — epitomized by my friend Hugh Hewitt, who told me that Chuck Poochigian would be the next Governor of California (insert sound effect) — are for Mitt Romney. Who, to be blunt, and I find Mr. Romney quite charming and all that stuff, is to my left on social issues, and perhaps military issues. (Referring to earlier Romney incarnations.) Since when I was in the Navy, well, more than a few years after, he was a Mormon missionary. In France. Yet they buy his current far right incarnation.

McCain barely genuflects in these folks’ direction.

“I respect Rush Limbaugh,” McCain said of the enforcer of right-wing doctrine who despairs about an impending McCain victory, today in Florida. “He is a voice that is respected by a lot of people who are in our party.”

Which, of course, means that McCain, an Annapolis grad and highly-decorated war hero thinks the guy — a perpetually overweight, determinedly non-veteran, who dropped out from some half-baked college after flunking most of his courses and spent many of his early years yakking away on a Sacramento radio station — is essentially a loud-mouthed buffoon.

It should be an interesting debate.

** CLINTON CAMPAIGN PULLS REAGAN HIT AD ON OBAMA. It’s about time. The charge is absurd. And that is putting it in a positive context.

** KUCINICH TO DROP FROM DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL RACE. In the last presidential election, I broke the somewhat surprising news that Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich was running for the Democratic presidential nomination. How did I do that? I ran into famed New Age author Marianne Williamson, an old friend of mine, at a bank of pay phones at the Bonaventure Hotel in downtown LA. I wondered what she was doing there. She was, as fate would have it, accompanying her friend Dennis Kucinich, who I’d also known for a long time. We were all there for the annual California Democratic Convention. He was there because he was serious about running for the Democratic presidential nomination of 2004.

This time, as distinguished from that particular surprise, I learn of something more obvious via the wire services. Kucinich is dropping out of out his race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. The one-time boy Mayor of Cleveland will return home to seek to shore up what may be a tough race for re-election to Congress. He’s a good guy. Quirky, and frequently wrong, but a valuable voice.

** IRAQ AND IRAN CONFIRM AHMADINEJAD VISIT TO BAGHDAD. While American politicians in both parties busy themselves barking at one another, the foreign ministries of Iraq and Iran have confirmed that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accepted the invitation of the Iraqi government to visit Baghad. The date is not yet set, but the visit of the erstwhile uber-villain of the Iranian regime is a signal event.

In the wake of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which downplayed any potentially imminent threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, the US and Iran have continued talks, through various means — including a direct meeting in Washington between President Bush and the leading pro-Iranian Iraqi politician — about the security situation in Iraq.

The truth is, both countries need to achieve a certain comity with one another. The US is too strong a player in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East for Iran to risk an actual confrontation. Iran is too powerful, both regionally and in terms of asymmetrical warfare — and the US military too over-stretched — for America to pretend that it has ready military options against the sometimes schizophrenic Islamic republic.

The US military surge in Iraq has had a certain level of success, but it is time-limited. It has created a space for the ultimate solutions — which as the Iraq Study Group pointed out in late 2006 — are finally political. Yet it is clear to Iran that the US is not leaving the Middle East.

And while Russia has emerged as a patron of Iran — and thus a potent blocking force to notions of US military strikes on Tehran — the Putin regime is playing its own multi-faceted game. And a very powerful Iran is not in Moscow’s long-term preferred scenario.

So both the US and Iran will have to engage in a somewhat complex walk-back from the brink for both of their credulous polities. And so it begins. Actually, continues.

** BREAKING AN EMBARGO. Some of you, well, actually, one reader, have asked why the right-wing California web site called the Flash Report has reported a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll on the term limits revision initiative, Proposition 93, and NWN has not. That is because the poll is under embargo until 10 PM tonight.

The poll is actually about a great deal more than Prop 93, including the presidential primary and the state of governance in California. I have had the poll for a few days, and will get into all of it when the time comes, under the established rules. I will also get into why the Flash Report’s proprietor, Jon Fleischman, saw fit to break those rules. One clue. He does not disclose this, but he works for the No on 93 campaign. So he is, as usual, an avid hyperpartisan propagandist.

John McCain talks about Islamic jihadism and economic insecurity
in this new Florida TV ad. Stallone just endorsed him.

** REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TONIGHT. Live from Boca Raton, Florida, at 6 PM Pacific time, the remaining Republican presidential candidates debate for 90 minutes on MSNBC. The participants are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, and Ron Paul. The somewhat outcast libertarian Paul, incidentally, is included because he has run far better in the primaries and raised vastly more money than his long-shot Democratic counterparts, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel, both of whom have done nothing to date in the primaries and are now excluded from debates after many appearances last year.

Incidentally, Sylvester Stallone has just endorsed John McCain. McCain’s reaction: “I’m going to Philadelphia to run up the steps.” Take that, Chuck Norris.

National liberal talk show host Ed Schultz says former President
Bill Clinton is a consistent liar.

** SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL: BIG OBAMA LEAD, EDWARDS GAINING ON HILLARY. This morning’s Zogby tracking poll for Reuters of Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary has Barack Obama slipping a bit, especially among black voters, but still holding a big lead. Intriguingly, in last night’s numbers alone, John Edwards pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton.

For the three-day rolling track, it’s Obama 39%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%. In last night’s track, which has an unreliable sample size, Edwards pulled ahead of Clinton with 27% of the overall vote, and leads among white voters.

Hillary left South Carolina after Monday night’s tumultuous debate, campaigning out here in California and elsewhere, leaving the state to former President Bill Clinton. (Though she is back today.) Bill Clinton has made himself a lightning rod for controversy, alternately making a strong appeal to black voters — hence the slippage for Obama — and attacking the press and Obama.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s item, “Backlash Bill?,” a little Bill Clinton goes a long ways.

Mitt Romney, a center-left candidate for U.S. Senate and
Massachusetts governor, says he is the true conservative for President.

** MISUNDERSTOOD MITT? The New York Times has an interesting piece on why his Republican rivals in the presidential race each dislike him more than any of the other candidates.

I’ve written about this before. To sum up, they consider him to have an unusually high level of fakery, changing his positions to suit every situation even on core values issues. They don’t like all the money he’s spent on attack ads. It goes from there.

I’ve met him and found him engaging, charming, funny, and smart. Of course, the first time I met him, he was to the left of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Who Romney’s right-wing cheerleaders all call a RINO (Republican In Name Only).

** HUNTER HEARTS HUCK. For those who were wondering, California Congressman Duncan Hunter, the San Diegan who chaired the House Armed Services Committee when the Republicans ran things and withdrew the other day from the presidential race, has endorsed Mike Huckabee for president.

** FIELD POLL: TERM LIMITS REVISE INITIATIVE IN DEEP TROUBLE, CASINO TRIBE COMPACTS UP IN THE AIR. The latest installment of the Field Poll, conducted January 14-20, shows Proposition 93, the term limits revision initiative, continuing to slide. It’s now at 39% for, 39% against. The four casino tribe gambling compacts — negotiated by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s administration, approved by the Legislature, and opposed by other gambling interests and unions wanting a much easier shot at organizing Indian casinos — are holding steady. The numbers there are 42% yes, 37% no. Those numbers aren’t good, either, but the trend line is not negative.

What’s the big problem for Prop 93? I think I’ve mentioned it once or twice. Louis Vuitton. The initiative was doing okay before it emerged that Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez had used his campaign fund for splashy travel, entertaining, and gifts. The item that popped for me was $2600 at the Louis Vuitton boutique in Paris. That was coupled with Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata also using funds for entertaining and gifts, though not international travel. Perata has been the subject of a longstanding FBI investigation that has yet to go anywhere. But you toss those things together and, as the saying goes … Et voila!

The other big problem is the failure to follow through on the promise Democratic legislative leaders have made every year since before they defeated Schwarzenegger’s redistricting reform initiative in 2005. Now, I happen to have a lot of reason to believe that right-wing Republicans aren’t serious about redistricting reform, either. But the commitment was made by the Democratic legislative leaders. They consistently failed to follow through, with Democratic votes, including an absurd escapade with a “missing” bill in 2006. That lost them a lot of editorial support and, more importantly, overall credibility.

** THE TOM MCCLINTOCK ENDORSEMENTS. California’s leading conservative politician, state Senator Tom McClintock, has issued his endorsements for the February 5th primary election. He had endorsed Fred Thompson for president, serving as his state chairman, but he withdrew this week. McClintock has not jumped aboard another presidential campaign, but here are his picks on the statewide initiatives.

Prop. 92 Guaranteed Funding for Community Colleges: NO! This can best be described as a Prop. 98 for community colleges – guaranteeing them a growing level of funding from the state’s tax revenues regardless of their actual attendance, their performance or the state’s fiscal condition and priorities. If you like straight-jackets, you’ll love Prop. 92.

Propositions 94-97 Indian Gaming Compacts: YES! These propositions ratify the compacts that allow four tribes to expand their casinos. I’m not a gambler, but it’s none of government’s business how people spend their money. I’m tired of government restrictions on enterprise, and I’m tired of government telling us what we can and can’t do. And our economy desperately needs the new jobs and investment.

McClintock, by an odd coincidence, is termed out of the state Senate. His far right followers are all against the term limits revision initiative. To his credit, he can’t claim that he is, too, but he won’t endorse it. He has received enormous financial support from casino tribes in his career. When he ran for governor in the 2003 recall, finally finishing a distant third, it was casino tribe money that floated him as far as he went.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading down around $87 per barrel on renewed fears of a global economic slowdown.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.

Dropping in big Super Tuesday states, Rudy Giuliani, wearing a 9/11 breathing
mask, tries to get it started in Florida calling for a “national catastrophe fund.”

** NEW OBAMA SOUTH CAROLINA RADIO AD. Announcer: “Hillary Clinton. She’ll say anything. And change nothing.”

** MCCAIN AND CLINTON HOLD SIGNIFICANT LEADS IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARY PRIVATE POLL. John McCain holds a sizable lead over Mitt Romney in a new private poll of the California Republican presidential primary. And Hillary Clinton also holds a sizable lead over Barack Obama in the poll of the California Democratic presidential primary.

** SCHWARZENEGGER/NUNEZ UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE PLAN STILL IN LIMBO. The state Senate health committee hearing on the proposed California universal health care program — discussed this morning — is still going on this afternoon and is expected to continue into the early evening. State Senate leader Don Perata has had the committee vote put off until Monday afternoon. This means, of course, that the committee votes to send the bill to the Senate floor are still not yet there.

** AND IN ANOTHER FLORIDA TRACK, MCCAIN HAS A SLIGHT EDGE. A poll by Kellyanne Conway completed yesterday has John McCain with a slight edge over Mitt Romney, 25% to 23%, with Rudy Giuliani well back at 15%. Mike Huckabee has 15% and now withdrawn Fred Thompson, co-chairman of the 2000 McCain campaign, 4%.

** ROMNEY LEADS NARROWLY IN A FLORIDA TRACKING POLL. Contradicting another tracking poll, the new Public Policy Polling track last night on the Florida Republican primary gives Mitt Romney a slight edge over John McCain. It’s Romney 28%, McCain 25%, Rudy Giuliani 19%, and Mike Huckabee 15%. The poll attributes an immediate shift to Romney following the withdrawal yesterday of Fred Thompson. Some polling indicates it’s not that clearcut. Never let it be said this is not a topsy-turvy campaign season.

** OBAMA LAUNCHES NATIONAL TV AD CAMPAIGN. Well, I’ve not yet figured out entirely how to cover the February 5th primaries, which amount to a national contest spread across a multiplicity of separate contests with their own dynamics. Yet we muddle forward. The Barack Obama campaign is first to announce a national TV ad campaign customized to the February 5th contests. Much of the advertising of course is on cable TV.

From the Obama campaign statement: Over the past two weeks, the Obama campaign became the first to air ads in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Tennessee and New Mexico. Today, the campaign also becomes the first to air ads in Alabama, Georgia and Delaware. The campaign is expanding ads through New Mexico, and also airing ads in Utah.

The new ads will begin airing tonight in the following states: Alabama- President: http://my.barackobama.com/al_president
Connecticut – Need: http://my.barackobama.com/ct_need
Delaware – Need: http://my.barackobama.com/de_need
Georgia – President: http://my.barackobama.com/ga_president
New Mexico – President: http://my.barackobama.com/nm_president Chances: http://my.barackobama.com/nm_chances
Utah – Need: http://my.barackobama.com/ut_need

** BACKLASH BILL? Driving around doing needed errands this afternoon, I heard former President Bill Clinton attacking the press for “parroting” what the Obama campaign wants about a fight in the Democratic Party. He’s campaigning for his wife now in South Carolina, and of course, as discussed, is playing his new — and highly effective, thusfar — role of attack dog-in-chief against Obama, who is being whipsawed in fighting a two-headed opponent. I wonder if a backlash is in store for Bill Clinton. I wrote last year that he and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair were the two premier political figures/statesmen on the planet. That was before all this stuff. The muss-up-the-pretty boy strategy against Obama has worked well so far. They’ve got Obama replying to all attacks, rather than picking the most obvious and knocking them out of the park with a little humor. But a little Bill Clinton can go a long ways, just as a little Arnold Schwarzenegger, as I mentioned to the governor before he got in trouble a few years back, can go a long ways.

** GIULIANI BATTLES BACK. After his non-showing in the early contests, America’s Mayor now trails John McCain in big Super Tuesday states he had counted on, such as California, New Jersey, and even his own New York, where McCain last night raised $1 million and got the endorsement of ex-Senator Al D’Amato. But he is still in it Florida, a must-win state for him. Though McCain has a narrow lead now in the Sunshine State, Giuliani is very much still in it, as is the free-spending Mitt Romney.

Here is the new Giuliani TV ad for Florida, in which he promises the hurricane-prone state a “national catastrophe fund” and notes that “someone” — that would be McCain — does not favor it. McCain is focusing on a better Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) than we’ve had.

Romney is going Giuliani even better on the big promises front to bail out Floridians in economic disasters. In Michigan, he promised a big fund to revitalize the auto industry, some $20 billion. In Florida, he’s pushing an even bigger fund to stimulate the national economy — $233 billion, over 50% bigger than President Bush’s — in this time of fresh economic insecurity.

Now here’s a question. If your program is to cut taxes and pare back the size of government, how do you pay for these big new vote-getting programs? The answer, naturally, is by eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse. Which will be identified, well, later.

Giuliani had been focusing primarily on the threat of Islamic jihadist terrorism and other national security matters. But the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran cooled the warhawk talk with regard to the troublesome Islamic republic. With which the Bush Administration is now dealing to settle the security situation in Iraq. Look for the erstwhile uber-villain, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to accept an invitation to visit Baghdad. And the relative, time-limited success of the US military surge in Iraq — pushed for years by McCain — has given the Vietnam War hero the biggest claim to the national security issue.

** SCHWARZKOPF BACKS MCCAIN. In the midst of a big day of veteran/national security-oriented campaigning in Florida, John McCain has received the endorsement of the winning US and allied commander in the first Gulf War, General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwarzkopf. Says Schwarzkopf: “Senator John McCain has served our country with honor in war and in peace. He has demonstrated the type of courageous leadership our country sorely needs at this time. For that reason, he has my complete support.”

Schwarzkopf is a Floridian who joined McCain several years ago in publicly criticizing the US strategy in Iraq.

Hillary Clinton’s second California TV ad. Meet the enviro crusader.

** NEW CLINTON AD FOR CALIFORNIA, HILLARY GETS FAMED CESAR CHAVEZ SLOGAN WRONG. Hillary Clinton has just launched her second TV ad for the California primary. The first had been seen elsewhere, and focused on her familiar themes of being experienced and fighting for people. This one, perhaps intended to blunt a potential surge of independent voters to Obama, focused on her championing of a Strategic Energy Fund to cut oil industry subsidies in order to promote renewable energy, fight climate change, and move toward energy independence.

It’s reminiscent of a Bill Clinton TV spot — which debuted first on NWN in the fall of 2006 — to promote a tax on oil companies in order to fund the development of alternative fuels, fight climate change, and move toward energy independence.

Meanwhile, Hillary held a big economic town hall meeting with more than 2000 people yesterday afternoon in the Salinas Valley. She also received the endorsement of the United Farm Workers, an iconic endorsement for many Latinos of the union founded, of course, by Cesar Chavez.

The union lauded her long history with the farm workers movement. Which was news to me, as someone who has long followed the UFW. (Longtime readers may recall my 2002 coverage, marching halfway from Merced to Sacramento with union leaders and farm workers urging then Governor Gray Davis to sign pro-worker legislation.)

Clinton, amusingly, got the famous UFW slogan wrong. “Si se pueda!,” she cried.
Actually, it’s “puede,” as anyone who’s spent any time around the the famed union knows. (Think pway-duh vs. pway-day.) It means, “Yes, it can be done,” and may be the most famous thing that Chavez, whose birthday is a state holiday in California and elsewhere, ever said.

Barack Obama on the consistent e-mail campaign against him.

** SOUTH CAROLINA TRACKING POLL: BIG OBAMA LEAD THERE AS HE STRUGGLES WITH REZKO CONNECTION AND SECRET ATTACKS. The new Zogby tracking poll for Reuters shows a big lead for Barack Obama in the South Carolina Democratic primary. The three-night rolling track is Obama 43%, Clinton 25%, John Edwards 15%. Last night’s track shows Obama down a bit, along with Clinton, and Edwards within four points of Hillary. That was taken after Monday night’s tumultuous debate in Myrtle Beach.

Hillary once had a big lead in South Carolina. She’s not campaigning there now, and tag-team partner Bill Clinton, the former president, is taking the fight to Obama and Edwards there. As in another new poll, Obama has a huge lead among black voters, but runs third among white voters. Bill Clinton, in addition to engaging Obama, is working to shore up Hillary’s support among white voters to avert a possible slide to third in the Palmetto State.

Meanwhile, Obama is beset by several newspaper articles bringing up his connection to Chicago fixer Tony Rezko. There doesn’t seem to be any new information, and it was an unwise idea to accept the guy’s help, given his reputation, though there is no hint of illegality. The Clinton strategy, obviously, is to equate this signal lapse of judgment with a great many other problems of their own, which I don’t have time at the moment to write about and have not especially stressed. And Obama is struggling, and looking defensive, as you see in the clip above, with a concerted series of secret attacks via e-mail and push-poll phone calls claiming he is actually a Muslim.

Mitt Romney gets a prank call from “Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

** FIELD POLL: MCCAIN AND ROMNEY LEAD CALIFORNIA AS GIULIANI PLUMMETS. In the latest installation of the Field Poll — conducted January 14-20, so the data is old — John McCain has taken a narrow lead in the California Republican primary over Mitt Romney as former leader Rudy Giuliani plummets. It’s now McCain 22%, Romney 18%, Giuliani 11%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Fred Thompson 9%. Thompson, of course, has dropped out. Absent a McCain endorsement, Romney gets more of his votes than McCain, so the race would be a dead heat. If Giuliani falters some more in Florida, where he is making a last stand, more of his votes are likely to go to McCain.

** MCCAIN PASSES GIULIANI IN NEW JERSEY. John McCain has passed the faltering Rudy Giuliani in his next door stronghold of New Jersey in the new Quinnipiac poll. It’s McCain 29%, Giuliani 26%, Mitt Romney 14%, Mike Huckabee 9%, and Fred Thompson 9%.

** THE TROUBLED SCHWARZENEGGER HEALTH CARE PLAN. The so-called ArnoldCare universal health care plan is in trouble today. Not because of the purported federal pre-emption issue — which its conservative backers wasted a lot of my time with last year with endless posts — that issue has gone nowhere in the courts. No, it’s in trouble because some unions on the left have convinced enough state senators on the health committee to oppose it. And because the state’s Legislative Analyst Office late yesterday issued a report indicating it will have trouble paying for itself.

The plan, authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and co-authored by Senate leader Don Perata, features a very long hearing today in the state Senate’s health committee, chaired by Santa Monica’s Sheila Kuehl, who long ago co-starred in The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis. She’s for single-payer health care. At least one other member, as of yesterday, agreed with left-leaning unions that requiring all Californians to purchase health insurance would be too burdensome, even with subsidies, because the plan doesn’t rein in costs. We’ll see how Perata handles this.

It’s a complex, almost Rube Goldbergesque plan I’ve written about many times. You can click on the link above for all the specific scenarios.

** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.

You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.

While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.

** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil is trading down around $87 per barrel on renewed fears of a global economic slowdown.

Your posts are welcome in the Forum.