Is this America’s future friend? Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei.
** ROMNEY DELIVERS “FAITH IN AMERICA” ADDRESS TOMORROW MORNING VIA A LIVE WEB LINK. Mitt Romney will discuss his controversial Mormon faith in the context of American life and his Republican presidential candidacy in a speech tomorrow morning at the President George H.W. Bush Library in College Station, Texan. Former President Bush will introduce the former Massachusetts governor, who has a lot riding on this speech. You can view it live at 7:30 AM tomorrow morning, Pacific time, via this link.
Clinton’s support seems more committed, but the trend is clearcut and ominous for her candidacy. Many respondents say they will be influenced by the result in Iowa, which is practically a tradition. In 1984, for example, Gary Hart eked out a distant second place in Iowa, then swept past the overwhelming frontrunner Walter Mondale to win big in New Hampshire.
** QUICK HITS. This afternoon, California Chamber of Commerce president Alan Zaremberg filed four potential versions of a $10 billion water bond initiative for the next November’s statewide ballot. The move came two weeks after Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata filed his own version of a water bond. The Zaremberg version, they’ll decide in a few weeks which one of the four to go with, mirrors that of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. To put it very roughly, it emphasizes water storage while the Perata plan emphasizes water conservation. A characterization unfair to both. … Former state Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte has endorsed the term limits revision initiative, Prop 93 on the February California ballot. He thinks legislators need more time in their houses to establish knowledge and expertise.
** REPUBLICAN SOURCES SAY INITIATIVE DRIVE TO CHANGE CALIFORNIA’S VOTE FOR PRESIDENT COMING UP SHORT. According to informed Republican sources, the scheme to change California’s vote in the Electoral College for president from winner-take-all to allocation by congressional district — a move which would change the procedure followed by every other major state and hand about 20 votes in the Electoral College to the Republican nominee — is coming up short.
Not enough money, not enough signatures, not enough time. Assuming that it fails, that might leave only two competing eminent domain initiatives on the June ballot.
Will the proponents shoot for the November ballot? Perhaps. But it could be thrown off the ballot, since that is when people around the country are actually voting for president.
** BIG NEVADA UNION HOLDS OFF ENDORSING AGAIN. The Culinary Workers Union, the biggest prize in Nevada labor endorsements, was to make its pick of a Democratic presidential candidate for the third-in-the-nation contest this week. But they are holding off again, now till early January.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is at her lowest level since the spring. It’s Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 24%, and John Edwards 16%.
** IRAN DEVELOPMENTS OUTSTRIP ONGOING RHETORIC. The new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which says that, contrary to the rhetoric of recent years, Iran actually stopped its serious nuclear weapons program four years ago, of course marks a sea change in global and US politics. It means, among other things, that there will be no US military strike against Iran, unlikely as that always was. It also means that US-Iranian cooperation in Iraq, which is already beginning, should pick up.
But the politicians are still behind the curve, naturally. As we saw yesterday with Democrat Joe Biden’s threat to impeach President Bush if he attacks Iran.
Rudy Giuliani talks tough on Iran in a brand new TV ad for the
New Hampshire primary, where he is trailing.
Even before the NIE, the US had released Iranian agents captured in Iraq and US Army officers noted that the flow of weapons into Iraq from Iran had abated.
Last week, in a move little noted, of course, President Bush met in Washington with Iran’s principal ally in Iraqi politics. Who voiced no objection to Bush’s plan to keep 50,000 US troops in Iraq indefinitely.
“We judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” .. “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.” … “Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”
Chuck Norris explains why he’s campaigning for Mike Huckabee.
** HUCKABEE CATCHES GIULIANI IN NATIONAL POLL, WHILE HILLARY SLIDES.In a daily tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports, taken Monday night, Mike Huckabee has caught Rudy Giuliani in nationwide soundings. Giuliani has been sliding in this and other polls. Here he is tied by Huckabee, 18% to 18%. I’m not a fan of robopolls, but this is the only poll going every night, and while it may be wrong, it is interesting from a directional standpoint.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is also sliding. She still leads Barack Obama, 35% to 24%, but her numbers are 30% lower than they were a month ago.
Strange as it may seem, Huckabee’s take-off coincided with his endorsement by action movie star and former world karate champion Chuck Norris. Ironically, Norris had never met Huckabee before he endorsed him, though he had met other candidates and previously was a major campaigner for the first President Bush. Huckabee and his campaign learned of Norris’s endorsement by reading it in the star’s column on the conservative WorldNet Daily.
** BIG MAJORITY STILL WANTS U.S. OUT OF IRAQ. Notwithstanding security gains with the time-limited military surge in Iraq, a big majority of Americans still wants US troops out of the shattered country in a year. That number stands at 59%, which is in the small range it’s been in for months.
Of course, the public is behind the curve, too, like the politicians. It looks like the US will retain bases in Iraq and an ongoing troop presence, with the tacit blessing of pro-Iranian politicians.
This year’s inductees are Ansel Adams, Milton Berle, Steve Jobs, Willie Mays, Robert Mondavi, Rita Moreno, Jackie Robinson, Dr. Jonas Salk, John Steinbeck, Elizabeth Taylor, Earl Warren, John Wayne and Tiger Woods. All of the living inductees are scheduled to be on hand tonight.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are heading back up, now trading in the $88 to $90 per barrel range, with OPEC today deciding against production hikes.
Barack Obama says that, as president, he will convene a bipartisan council
on national security and build schools throughout the Middle East.
** LEGACY MEDIA POLLS. What we call the legacy media is now into releasing polls that were conducted over an extraordinarily long period of time, rendering them essentially irrelevant in a volatile presidential primary environment.
Here is the poll put out by the leading wire service in America, Associated Press, conducted for AP by Pew Research.
Over a TWO-AND-A-HALF WEEK PERIOD OF TIME.
It shows Mitt Romney tied for the lead in two early states — Iowa (with Mike Huckabee) and South Carolina (with Rudy Giuliani.
But it is essentially a useless measurement of what is actually going on in the campaign.
There is a similar AP poll showing Hillary Clinton leading by significant margins in all those states. But it is utterly bogus today.
** BROWN TO CALL FOR REGULATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT. Former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown ventures to LA International Airport tomorrow morning to urge the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft.
In 2005, notes the two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination, aircraft contributed 3% of America’s total carbon dioxide emissions and 12% of the national transportation sector emissions. The Federal Aviation Administration estimates that emissions from domestic aircraft will go up 60% by 2025, mostly due to increases in air transport.
** PAKISTAN CRISIS. In national politics, some folks on the left and the right have to deal with the untimely cancellation of their hotly anticipated Armageddon around Iran. In California politics, some folks are acting as though they’re not about to be out of power and looking at new careers in a few months absent a dramatic move.
Meanwhile, in the real world of politics, an ongoing crisis continues to bubble. That involving America’s frontline partner in the Terror War, the only actual Islamic nuclear power, Pakistan.
One way or another, one or both of Bhutto and Sharif will participate, thus giving the election some semblance of credibility. Whether that’s enough for Musharraf to continue is another question. His fate looks very iffy. Along with the security of real nuclear weapons in a country in which Islamic jihadists roam free, Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders have guaranteed safe havens, and the intelligence service is shot through with religious radicals.
All those folks who’ve been so het up over Iran can just transfer all that emotionalism to Pakistan. Hopefully, this time, leavened with a dollop or a dozen of common sense.
** BUSH SAYS IRAN STILL “DANGEROUS,” BUT SOUNDS FRIENDLIER. In his press conference this morning, President Bush said that Iran remains “dangerous” because it could move to enrich uranium in the future. But he sounded much friendlier toward the Islamic semi-republic in the wake of yesterday’s dramatic US National Intelligence Estimate which said that Iran’s serious nuclear weapons development program actually ceased four years ago. Here’s the transcript.
The US and Iran are talking behind the scenes, as I predicted right along, about how to settle the security situation in Iraq beyond the time-limited US military surge. As I’ve reported, the US has released Iranian agents operating inside Iraq and US military officials have noted that Iranian weapons flow into Iraq has sharply diminished.
It’s going to take a while for partisans on both sides — who have been talking up the prospect of war with Iran, always unlikely, given limited US military options, in order to fire up their respective constituencies — to adjust to the new reality.
Leaders of the various parties discuss the controversial landslide
win of Vladimir Putin’s party.
** RUSSIAN PARTIES TAKE TELLING STANCES IN WAKE OF ELECTION. Leaders of the various Russian political parties took telling stances in the news footage above. Putin’s United Russia talked of soon setting out the course for Russia through 2020. Um, aren’t there going to be elections between now and then? The Communists, now reduced to being the party of pensioners, carped about bygone days. The thuggish and misnamed Liberal Democrats drank vodka from bottles festooned with the visage of their extreme nationalist leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The leader of the social democratic Fair Russia looked slick and inoffensive, as befits his party’s role as faux opposition to Putin. The leaders of the once thriving Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces — last decade’s market liberal reformers and arguable democrats — were suitably ineffectual.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are down compared to historic highs today in advance of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting, to the $88 to $89 per barrel range.. Saudi Arabia has increased its production to the highest level this year. Record oil prices have negatively impacted the US and global economies.
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announces he will chair a
redistricting reform initiative for the November 2008 ballot,
in this NWN video.
Here we go again. Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading another expedition down the yellow brick road to redistricting reform.
“I will be traveling up and down the state,” says Schwarzenegger. “I will be collecting signatures, and I will be doing everything possible in order to make this initiative pass.”
He’s really not in Austria anymore. Or Kansas, for that matter.
California Voters First kicked off yesterday with snazzy t-shirts — “Fair independent redistricting today,” and doesn’t that ignite the soul? — and a coalition of “do-gooders,” as some NWN posters call them. Common Cause, the League of Women Voters, the American Association of Retired People, and the LA Area Chamber of Commerce. Well, three out of four. The former action movie superstar was joined in the announcement of the initiative by California Common Cause Executive Director Kathay Feng, AARP California State President Jeannine English, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Gary Toebben, and League of Women Voters President Janis Hirohama. The campaign consultants include Republican Wayne Johnson and Democrat Steve Smith, as well as Schwarzenegger’s campaign press secretary, Julie Soderlund.
If you think you’ve seen this movie before, you have. But this time, Schwarzenegger may not be playing Dorothy.
In 2002, when he was only contemplating a run for governor, Schwarzenegger said he wanted to reform redistricting, the system in California by which the politicians choose their own voters, making the winning of a partisan primary for the Legislature, Board of Equalization, and Congress tantamount to election. Which in its turn contributes greatly to the hyperpartisanship that has dominated both parties in recent years.
In 2005, finding predictable resistance from politicians in the state Legislature, Schwarzenegger went for it with an initiative. But there were problems with the initiative — notably, that it would have forced a mid-decade redistricting (it’s supposed to happen every decade after the new federal Census data is available) using old data — and it was swamped as part of the overall rejection of his “Year of Reform” slate of four initiatives.
As they were going about defeating it, Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata promised that they would get redistricting reform done through the Legislature.
Last year, in a maneuver that would have been quite amusing were it not so irritating, a redistricting reform bill passed the state Senate but through a very strange set of circumstances somehow didn’t get to the Assembly in time. Nunez and Perata pointed fingers at one another while some Democrats privately had a big laugh. Nunez held a conference call with a surly press corps that was so poisonous with regard to the deal that had gone down that, to inject a positive note, I asked the speaker to commit to a date certain in 2007 to produce a redistricting reform bill. Which he did.
Yet, once again, nothing actually got done. Perata made his lack of regard for redistricting reform fairly obvious, notwithstanding his 2005 pledge.
And Republicans, after making a big show of support, got cold feet in the end when it came to an obvious compromise: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had made it known that she would raise $10 million to defeat any measure that included Congress. Why? Because she worried about her slender newfound majority and wanted the option to gerrymander a few more seats out of California. Strolling around the California Republican Party convention this past September made it clear to me that a great many Republicans like gerrymandered districts, too, because they mean that they need never come to grips with California’s essential centrism.
The Democrats who’ve thwarted reform in the past had a muted response to this latest move. Perata didn’t issue a statement. Nunez did. For his part, Nunez strategist Steve Maviglio says they are concerned that the independent citizens commission — five Democrats, five Republicans, four independents, created from a pool selected by state auditors, and majorities of each would have to agree on a redistricting plan — might not reflect the state’s diversity. And that Schwarzenegger and company are “playing politics” by excluding Congress.
“I think they made a political decision to exclude Congress when they pretend to be above politics,” says Maviglio. “We don’t think that’s the right direction.”
Actually, that was always the implicit compromise to ensure that Pelosi didn’t wreck the whole show.
This time around, Schwarzenegger isn’t pushing a big, controversial agenda (aside from a potential health care reform measure). He has the Democrats’ public promise and public failure to produce on that promise. And he has things they still want, such as the still-in-the-works comprehensive health care measure and the term limits revision initiative.
Democrats should have gone for redistricting and other political reform measures to provide more of a sweetener for their push to revise term limits, a measure which amounts to only a slight loosening. They didn’t do that and now their campaign for the February initiative is in trouble. They still have an opportunity, as Schwarzenegger has not yet signaled his intentions on it.
Should the term limits initiative fail, of course, the Democrats will be in some disarray. New leaders will have to be chosen next year, leaders who will not have the established clout built up by Perata and Nunez. Leaders easier to beat at the ballot box.
“We judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” .. “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.” … “Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”
No clear and present danger of Iranian nuclear weapons, no US military strike against Iran.
So much for what has been a major element of American domestic politics. As I’ve been saying most of the year, the US will deal with Iran to at last settle the Iraqi security situation for the long term, not just the length of a time-limited military surge.
** HILLARY SLAMS OBAMA IN IOWA SPEECH. CLINTON CABINET MEMBER ROBERT REICH DISAGREES.
From Hillary Clinton’s speech attacking Barack Obama today in Clear Lake, Iowa:
“When it comes to health care, one of my opponents believes it’s acceptable to leave out 15 million Americans. That would be 100,000 here in Iowa. Leave them out from his health care plan because universal coverage might be too hard to achieve. I disagree. I don’t think we should start by giving up on 15 million Americans. That’s why my health care plan covers everyone…
“When it comes to Social Security, one of my opponents uses the Republican talking points and has been open to raising the retirement age and cutting benefits. Now he says he is for lifting the payroll tax, which would be a trillion dollar tax increase. Again, I disagree. I don’t think we should fix Social Security on the backs of our seniors and the middle class. I have always fought for Social Security, I have always stood up against privatization, and as President, I will restore fiscal responsibility so we can keep Social Security as a sacred promise to our seniors.
“When it comes to Iran, I took a stand for aggressive diplomacy. One of my opponents made a different choice: He didn’t show up for the vote. He didn’t speak out during a presidential debate that night. And finally, he decided to play politics and claim that the vote he missed – a vote for diplomacy – was really a vote for war. Well if he really thought it was a rush to war, why did he rush to campaign and miss the vote?
“Now, there’s been a lot of talk about yes or no answers to complex questions. But most people don’t know that for legislators who don’t want to take a stand, there’s a third way to vote. Not yes, not no, but “present” – which is kind of like voting “maybe.” Well, in the Illinois State Senate, on issue after issue, my opponent voted “present,” instead of yes or no. Seven of those votes were on a woman’s right to choose. Two of those votes were on measures to protect families from gun violence – one of which was a measure about firing guns on or near school grounds.
First, HRC attacked O’s plan for keep Social Security solvent. Social Security doesn’t need a whole lot to keep it going – it’s in far better shape than Medicare – but everyone who’s looked at it agrees it will need bolstering (I was a trustee of the Social Security Trust Fund ten years ago, and I can vouch for this). Obama wants to do it by lifting the cap on the percent of income subject to Social Security payroll taxes, which strikes me as sensible. That cap is now close to $98,000 (it’s indexed), and the result is highly regressive. (Bill Gates satisfies his yearly Social Security obligations a few minutes past midnight on January 1 every year.) The cap doesn’t have to be lifted all that much to keep Social Security solvent – maybe to $115,00. That’s a progressive solution to the problem. HRC wants to refer Social Security to a commission. That’s avoiding the issue, and it’s irresponsible: A commission will likely call either for raising the retirement age (that’s what Greenspan’s Social Security commission came up with in the 1980s) or increasing the payroll tax on all Americans. So when HRC charges that Obama’s plan would “raise taxes” and her plan wouldn’t, she’s simply not telling the truth.
I’m equally concerned about her attack on his health care plan. She says his would insure fewer people than hers. I’ve compared the two plans in detail. Both of them are big advances over what we have now. But in my view Obama’s would insure more people, not fewer, than HRC’s. That’s because Obama’s puts more money up front and contains sufficient subsidies to insure everyone who’s likely to need help – including all children and young adults up to 25 years old. Hers requires that everyone insure themselves. Yet we know from experience with mandated auto insurance – and we’re learning from what’s happening in Massachusetts where health insurance is now being mandated – that mandates still leave out a lot of people at the lower end who can’t afford to insure themselves even when they’re required to do so. HRC doesn’t indicate how she’d enforce her mandate, and I can’t find enough money in HRC’s plan to help all those who won’t be able to afford to buy it. I’m also impressed by the up-front investments in information technology in O’s plan, and the reinsurance mechanism for coping with the costs of catastrophic illness. HRC is far less specific on both counts. In short: They’re both advances, but O’s is the better of the two. HRC has no grounds for alleging that O’s would leave out 15 million people. …
** SCHWARZENEGGER CHAIRS REDISTRICTING REFORM INITIATIVE. The coalition I referenced early this morning below is now chaired by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. I’ll have a lot more on this, including video. They are shooting for the November ballot. And, naturally, to pressure, if at all possible, the Legislature into at last doing what was promised over two years ago. The initiative does not include congressional districts, accounting for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s threat to otherwise spend $10 million to defeat it.
Putin is widely expected to use the two-thirds super-majority that United Russia now has in parliament to facilitate his retaining a key position as “national leader,” as his backers in politics and the media have come to call it. That could take the form of a strengthened prime ministership, speakership of the parliament, chairmanship of a super-Kremlin national security council, chairmanship of United Russia, or some combination thereof. The super-majority allows United Russia to change the nation’s constitution, which is what limits Putin to two terms as president. No potential successor as president has yet announced his or her candidacy, though the deadline to file for the March 2nd presidential election is before Christmas. Western Christmas, that is, not Russian Orthodox Christmas, which is 13 days later.
Clinton is attacking Obama on character, an interesting choice given the past controversies that have surrounded the Clintons. Among other things, her operatives are noting that, as a kindergartener, Obama expressed a wish to become president, thus belying his stance that he hasn’t lived his life to become a politician. (Which is sort of implicit in reading his autobiography, with its frank admission of teen drug use.) Incidentally, I too expressed the desire to become president when I was a little boy. Along with being a fireman.
** SCHWARZENEGGER TO DISCUSS POLITICAL REFORM, REDISTRICTING REFORM INITIATIVE LIKELY. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to endorse a redistricting reform initiative in a press conference at 11:30 AM on the East Steps of the state Capitol. Joining him to discuss the California Voters First Act will be AARP California State President Jeannine English, California Common Cause Executive Director Kathay Feng, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Executive Director Gary Toebben, and League of Women Voters President Janis Hirohama.
Schwarzenegger pushed an unsuccessful redistricting reform initiative as part of his unsuccessful “Year of Reform” ballot package of 2005. At the time, Democratic legislative leaders Fabian Nunez and Don Perata vowed that they would get the job done properly through the Legislature. Last year, a comedy of errors ensued right at the deadline which ensured that the bill both leaders said they backed would not gain passage. This year, again, nothing was accomplished, despite many assurances. Although this time, legislative Republicans were also in on the act, gaining notably colder feet as decision time came round.
value=”http://www.youtube.com/v/5EErUMjjA7c&rel=1″> Russia has just just placed into production what it says is the world’s most
advanced short-range air defense system. It has already accepted orders
from various Middle Eastern nations, including Syria.
** PUTIN’S PARTY SWEEPS RUSSIAN ELECTIONS. With 98% of the vote in, Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has crushed its opposition in elections for the national parliament. Putin headed the parliamentary list for United Russia, which got 64.1% of the vote. The Communists were a distant second with 11.6%, while the Liberal Democrats (actually an extreme nationalist party) and Fair Russia (social democrats) trailed with 8.8% and 8.6%, respectively. No other party will have representation in the Duma. Only the Communists are really in opposition.
Turnout was 63%, a new record turnout. Reports abound of coercion, with public employees in particular reportedly targeted for very forceful urgings to vote. It was a big priority for Putin to win an overwhelming victory with a high turnout. Why? To justify future moves to retain power. Putin’s constitutionally limited tenure as president ends next year. There is no declared candidate yet for the presidency. And there is no reason to believe that Putin will truly depart from power. The parliamentary election was actually cast as something of a referendum on his leadership, as you’ve seen from previous coverage.
United Russia will have a two-thirds majority in the Duma even without the support of the two parties in tacit alliance. This would enable United Russia to change the constitution. Russian democracy looks a great deal like that of Chicago in the old days of the Mayor Richard Daley machine.
On Friday, just before all electioneering ended for the 24 hours prior to the vote, Russia announced the beginning of production of the Pantsyr-S1 missile air defense system. Russian sources boast that it is the most advanced short-range air defense system in the world, with four times the kill ratio of any competing system within a 20-kilometer radius.
They say it will become “the Kalashnikov of air defense systems,” referring to the legendary assault rifle that has become a standard of militaries around the world on account of its effectiveness, durability, and relative ease of use.
With this air defense system in place, say the Russians, the mysterious air strike inside Syria carried out earlier this fall by the Israeli Air Force, which some conservative sources say was against a nuclear site, would have been impossible. Several Middle Eastern nations have already ordered the Pantsir, which will be available late next year. Including, naturally, Syria. No word about Iran.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices are sliding again today in advance of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting, to the $87 to $88 per barrel range.. Saudi Arabia has increased its production to the highest level this year. Record oil prices have negatively impacted the US and global economies.
Governor Mike Huckabee and action movie star Chuck Norris on Fox News.
Will the Republicans nominate an authentic and personable social conservative who doesn’t believe in evolution but does believe in the greenhouse effect? Mike Huckabee has certainly taken the lead away from Mitt Romney in Iowa. As for the Democrats, so much for the “inevitable” candidacy of Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama’s moved ahead in Iowa, and she now says she sees “character” flaws in the first black candidate with a real shot at the presidency. What a surprise.
With his longstanding lead in Iowa, where he’s already spent megabucks on TV advertising and organizing, having disappeared, Romney will give a major address on his controversial religion, Mormonism, this week at the George Herbert Walker Bush Presidential Library in Texas. The speech is called “Faith In America.” Romney will be introduced by former President Bush.
Huckabee just finished three days of retail campaigning in New Hampshire, and will be spending the next two days with intensive campaigning in Iowa.
Obama, whose campaign anticipated attacks from the Clinton camp, will spend next weekend barnstorming Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with Oprah Winfrey.
It’s Obama 28%, Hillary Clinton 25%, John Edwards 22%, Bill Richardson 9% and Joe Biden 6% among Democrats.
On the Republican side, it’s Huckabee 29%, Mitt Romney 24%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, Fred Thompson 9%, John McCain 7%, and Ron Paul 7%. Thompson’s support has been cut in half since October, while Huckabee’s gone up 17 points.
Mike Huckabee discusses the need for energy independence and renewable
power to defend against terrorism and preserve the environment.
Huckabee is also moving in the other early primary and caucus states in the wake of a strong showing in last week’s Republican presidential debate. That was a night for Giuliani and Romney to continue what may be a fateful tango of hostility. And for Huckabee to demonstrate exactly why he is the the candidate of the political surge.
I think Romney and his handlers made a mistake. His biggest problem is Huckabee, who is in the process of hollowing out his candidacy. He’s doing that in two ways, by proving to have a powerful appeal as an authentic, not situational, social conservative. And by taking the lead in Iowa, which had been ceded to Romney for months. If Romney loses Iowa, his entire strategic sequence is thoroughly disrupted. He doesn’t have the built-in national appeal of Giuliani, which may be the ex-New York mayor’s ultimate strength in the big state primaries down the line in the contest. Of course, if Giuliani finishes out of the top two in the first few contests, that support could erode quickly.
Huckabee’s new eminence in the field is matched by a new effort to show that he’s not really a conservative. Though he is in fact the clearest social conservative in the field. Conservative columnist Bob Novak, laying out the case for his economic conservative allies, scores Huckabee for raising some taxes, spending money on social programs, criticizing free trade, and backing a cap & trade program on greenhouse gases.
“Huckabee is campaigning as a conservative, but serious Republicans know that he is a high-tax, protectionist, big-government advocate of a strong hand in the Oval Office directing the lives of Americans. Until now, they did not bother to expose the former governor of Arkansas as a false conservative because he seemed an underfunded, unknown nuisance candidate. Now that he has pulled even with Mitt Romney for the Iowa caucuses with the possibility of more progress, the beleaguered Republican Party has a frightening problem on its hands. The rise of evangelical Christians as the motive force that blasted the GOP out of minority status during the past generation always contained an inherent danger if these new Republican acolytes supported not merely a conventional conservative but one of their own.”
In other words, the social conservative vote was fine so long as it went to establishment Republican candidates who didn’t really believe in its core issues.
The Golden Compass, opening Friday, is a very ambitious
and controversial fantasy epic.
** PUTIN PARTY WINNING LANDSLIDE IN RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia slate is winning 63% of the vote with 64% of the vote counted. The Communists are running a very distant second with less than 12%, while only two other parties — both tacitly aligned with Putin — look to make it into the Duma: The Liberal Democrats (actually extreme nationalists) and Fair Russia (a social democratic party), both with under 9% of the vote.
Turnout was 62%, much higher than in the last election. Reports abound of coercion, with public employees in particular reportedly targeted for very forceful urgings to vote. It was a big priority for Putin to win an overwhelming victory with a high turnout. Why? To justify future moves to retain power. Putin’s constitutionally limited tenure as president ends next year. There is no declared candidate yet for the presidency.
United Russia will have a two-thirds majority in the Duma even without the support of the two parties in tacit alliance. This would enable United Russia to change the constitution. Russian democracy looks a great deal like that of Chicago in the old days of the Mayor Richard Daley machine.
It’s Obama 28%, Hillary Clinton 25%, John Edwards 22%, Bill Richardson 9% and Joe Biden 6% among Democrats.
On the Republican side, it’s Huckabee 29%, Mitt Romney 24%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, Fred Thompson 9%, John McCain 7%, and Ron Paul 7%. Thompson’s support has been cut in half since October.
** THIS COMPASS POINTS TO CONTROVERSY, AND AN ADAPTATION OF AN EPIC. Next Friday in the US, and Wednesday in the UK and a few other European countries, the most controversial children’s movie of all time opens. It’s called The Golden Compass, I’ve already seen it, and it’s good.
Great? No. Because it’s rather rushed and a bit choppy. it’s actually truncated from the book it’s based on. The Golden Compass — Northern Lights in its original UK publication — is the first book in an award-winning, best-selling trilogy by British author Philip Pullman called His Dark Materials. The phrase is taken from a passage in Milton’s Paradise Lost:
“Into this wild abyss,
The womb of nature and perhaps her grave,
Of neither sea, nor shore, nor air, nor fire,
But all these in their pregnant causes mixed
Confusedly, and which thus must ever fight,
Unless the almighty maker them ordain
His dark materials to create more worlds,
Into this wild abyss the wary fiend
Stood on the brink of hell and looked a while,
Pondering his voyage”
Not exactly Harry Potter. Pullman, like Milton, entertains the notion that perhaps God is wrong. Or this God isn’t real. Or we are worshiping the wrong God. Or that the Church erected in God’s name has become perverted.
Pullman, along with the filmmakers, brews up a heady mix of quantum physics, parallel universes, a young female heroine, a powerful explorer/academic out to blow everyone’s mind, intelligent armored polar bears, alluring and kindly witches, a deliciously glamorous and mostly evil anti-heroine, “daemons” (animal alter egos) which accompany humans, and a stunning clockwork alternate England compellingly pastiched from Edwardian, Victorian, Art Deco, and steampunk elements.
For an America in which religion is spread like ketchup over politics and many other aspects of life, the arguably anti-religion elements of the saga are toned down in the movie. The authoritarian Magisterium has been essentially stripped of most of its religious overtones.
Which hasn’t stopped conservative Catholic and Mormon activist groups from calling for a boycott of the movie. Which I think will fail.
The film is a stunner, as are the books. But unlike the books, the film feels rather choppy, with key sequences hurried through. As longtime readers have undoubtedly gathered, I don’t much care about theology. The Chronicles of Narnia made for a terrific movie, and it was shot through with overt Christian ideology. I’m for freedom of thought, and free will, to the extent it does not damage others. This happens to have a cracking good story, as well as some underlying values I identify with. Which happen to be Judaeo-Christian values, whether the author is an atheist or not.
As for the movie, it’s quite spectacular. Nicole Kidman is great as Mrs. Coulter, the icily glamorous and brilliant scientist and politician of the Magisterium. Daniel Craig, who was so outstanding as the new James Bond in last November’s Casino Royale hard-edged re-boot of the franchise, is perfectly cast as Lord Asriel. Think a much more ruthless and arrogant Indiana Jones. Eva Green, who also shown in Casino Royale as the ill-fated Vesper Lynd, is a friendly, ageless witch queen. Sam Elliot is again the great Western icon as a Texan “aeronaut” signed on to the Arctic expedition.
And Dakota Blue Richards, as the 12-year old heroine Lyra, is very good. A perfectly charming scamp as she romps about a storybook Oxford, then brave adventurer as she learns a hard lesson in London and embarks on an expedition to the Arctic. Helped along the way by colorful companions and guided by the titular golden compass, actually an “alethiometer,” something made in Prague which few can read. Fortunate, perhaps, as it tells the truth and foretells the future. Or, at least, seems to.
The main problem with the picture is that it has been truncated. It ends three chapters short of the book. Which means that Daniel Craig’s part is cut short. Not because of his performance, but because his character Asriel — explorer, politician, and Oxford fellow — does something quite spectacular and controversial at the end of the book.
All that was filmed, however, and is intended to open the next movie. If there is a next movie. I’ll be shocked if this movie is not a hit, and that’s the forecast from the US trade papers, not to mention the early reviews in the general press in Britain, liberal and conservative, which have been mostly raves.
But these movies are extraordinarily expensive. A decade ago, Starship Troopers became the first movie that cost $100 million to produce. Today that amount is commonplace among would-be action blockbusters. And this movie, which is heavily dependent on CGI, cost twice that, perhaps more.
The revitalized USC Trojans, going for their sixth straight
conference title, headline a Saturday of rivalry games.
** USC VS. UCLA TOPS RIVALRY WEEKEND. It’s a Saturday of classic rivalry games in college football, with Army vs. Navy, Cal vs. Stanford, and USC vs. UCLA.
And a Big 12 conference championship game between Missouri and Oklahoma, which will also determine whether Missouri plays in the national championship game. Though Missouri and Oklahoma aren’t each other’s classic rivals. That would be Texas for Oklahoma and I frankly don’t know who for Mizzou.
Navy, which beat slumping Notre Dame for the first time in 44 years, is headed to its latest in a string of bowl games, the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Cal was ranked #2 in the country and headed for #1 after Lousiana State lost. Only to lose in the last minute in a fluke to Oregon State behind a freshman quarterback. Since then, Cal’s been in a big slump, rising out of its malaise only to play an outstanding game against USC in a rainy 24-17 loss in Berkeley. If they beat Stanford, as they should, they’ll go to yet another bowl game in what nonetheless remains a big disappointment of a season.
Speaking of Stanford, they’re the team that probably ends up keeping USC out of the national championship game. With John David Booty throwing an amazing four interceptions — turns out he’d broken his finger during the game — Stanford beat USC 24-23. Stanford hasn’t done much since, but USC has rebounded, losing narrowly to Oregon (now out of it following injury to its star quarterback, along the way, crushing powerhouse Arizona State on Thanksgiving Day. If the Trojans beat cross-town rivals UCLA, they’re on to the Rose Bowl and another high national ranking.
** REPUBLICAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE SCHEME BEHIND SCHEDULE. As I was hearing, the scheme by some Republicans to change the allocation of California’s Electoral College votes for president — and no one else’s — is behind schedule on signature gathering and fundraising for the proposed initiative. First the proponents were going to submit some 700,000 signatures by Thanksgiving to be assured of making the June statewide election ballot. They missed that. Then the Secretary of State’s office gave them till November 29th. They’ve missed that target, too. Now they say they’ll turn in signatures by the middle of next week. Though they’re not sure they’ll have the 700,000, which they may well need to make sure they have 434,000 valid signatures of registered voters. Since they can’t afford to pay the top dollar they initially were going to pay, they’re probably getting a lot of bad signatures.
Even if it makes the ballot, as I’ve said from the first time I heard of this scheme — which died its first death after its biggest funder was revealed to be an official of Rudy Giuliani’s campaign and, broken first by NWN, a controversial “vulture fund” investor in Third World debt — I don’t think it will pass. If it did, it might well throw the presidential election to the Republicans, as it would change the winner-take-all allocation of California’s presidential votes in the Electoral College — a practice followed by all except to very small states — allocation by congressional district. Which would probably add about 20 votes to the Republican column.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil prices have dropped again yesterday, closing below $90 at $88.81 per barrrel. Saudi Arabia has increased its production to the highest level this year. Record oil prices have negatively impacted the US and global economies. Energy markets are closed on the weekend.
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