With the presidential race up for grabs in both parties, global crises,
and three California statewide elections ahead, it’s best to “Take It Easy.”
NEW YEAR’S DAY UPDATE
** LIES, DAMN LIES, AND, ER, POLLS. You know my problem with the Iowa polls. They’re all taken over the holidays, which have never before this current insane situation been a determinative period, AND most of the periods involved are long weekends. Aside, from that, they are entirely valid … Other polls, aside from the widely acknowledged gold standard Des Moines Register Poll — numbers below — have some different results, though Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee also lead in some among Democrats and Republicans.
The Register poll, as you see from the link below, has a new model anticipating higher numbers of independents participating in the Democratic presidential caucuses than have participated in the past. That accounts for Obama’s rather large lead over Hillary Clinton, and for John Edwards, who is appealing to core Democrats rather than independents. Is the Register correct in assuming that Iowa this time out will behave more like a primary — and be much more reflective of the changing electorate around the country — than a low turnout caucus? We’ll know soon enough. The importance of independents in the New Hampshire primary is why Obama has eliminated Clinton’s lead there in most polls.
** QUICK HITS. Did Mike Huckabee screw up on New Year’s Eve when he unveiled a hard-hitting counterattack ad on Mitt Romney at a press conference only to announce that he wouldn’t use it because he’s against negative campaigning? The conventional national media certainly thinks so. But the Iowa press seems to have mostly presented the story in very straightforward fashion. And somehow I doubt most Iowans over yet another holiday are paying much attention to what Joe Klein et al have to say. … Pakistan is, not surprisingly, postponing the scheduled January 8th national election in the wake of the highly suspicious assassination of Benazir Bhutto. That’s not a popular choice, either, also not surprisingly. When will they be? Probably not any time soon. … San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who according to many torched his career early in 2007 with a sex scandal, only to go on to romp to an easy re-election win, got engaged over the weekend in Hawaii to actress and Stanford alum Jennifer Siebel. Congratulations, Mr. Mayor!
NEW YEAR’S EVE UPDATE
** DES MOINES REGISTER POLL: OBAMA LEADS CLINTON, HUCKABEE LEADS ROMNEY. The most respected poll of the Iowa presidential caucuses, the pre-caucus Des Moines Register poll, has just been released at 7PM Pacific time. Here are the numbers.
Democrats: Barack Obama 32%, Hillary Clinton 25%, John Edwards 24%.
Republicans: Mike Huckabee 32%, Mitt Romney 26%, John McCain 13%.
I’m off now, but I’ll delve into it in more detail on New Year’s Day.
** HAPPY NEW YEAR! It’s going to be a spectacular and complex New Year. When it’s not boring and derivative, of course. Let’s all do our best to relax for a moment or four, in spite of the best efforts of the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire to make the permanent campaign even more permanent than it needs to be.
** IOWA TRACKING POLL. The latest Zogby track from Iowa shows very tight races in both parties.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton 30%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards 26%.
Republicans: Mike Huckabee 29%, Mitt Romney 27%, John McCain 13%.
Again, I don’t really buy any of these polls, taken over weekends and holidays.
This poll was conducted entirely over the weekend before New Year’s — Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The best in the West USC Trojans go for yet another Rose Bowl
crown on New Year’s Day.
** BOWLING. A lot of college bowl games New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Watching the always entertaining Hawaii offense take on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl should be interesting. And then there is the Rose Bowl, featuring the best team in the West, perhaps the country, USC.
Stanford didn’t do much this season, but they’re the team that kept perennial powerhouse USC out of the national championship game. With John David Booty throwing an amazing four interceptions — turns out he’d broken his finger during the game — Stanford beat USC 24-23. Stanford didn’t do much afterward, aside from confounding slumping and once #2 in the country Cal, but USC has rebounded, losing narrowly to Oregon when it was on a roll and crushing powerhouse Arizona State on Thanksgiving Day. After dominating cross-town rivals UCLA, they’re on to the Rose Bowl and another high national ranking. Illinois will be the Trojans’ last victim of the season.
The lovely, if deeply ironic, Russian holiday fable of Snegurochka, the Snow Maiden, provides a nice counterpoint to the harsher view of Charlie Wilson’s War.
** CHARLIE WILSON VS. SNEGUROCHKA. With the critical and popular success of Charlie Wilson’s War, a rollicking true tale of the most successful covert war in history (with a distressing and witlessly handled denouement) — taking down the Soviet Union in Afghanistan — Soviet-era Russia has taken a pounding of late. Cinematic pep talks about “Let’s kill Russians” may feel a bit unseemly given Russia’s renewed role in the world and traditional greatness as a country, culture, and people.
But that is reflective of the time, and the training, I can assure you. The Soviet Union was one of the most menacing presences in world history. The atrocities perpetrated by Soviet forces in Afghanistan were breathtaking in their brutality.
So it’s a pleasure to draw your attention to the charming Russian holiday fable of Snegurichka, the Snow Maiden. Who is associated with both Christmas — December 25th in the modern calendar, January 7th traditionally, due to the old calendar — and New Year’s. The Soviet system suppressed Christmas, so traditions like the Snow Maiden and the grandfather she accompanied, the Santa equivalent, Father Frost (Ded Moroz), officially switched to New Year’s.
** 24/7 LIVE TV NEWS FEED FROM RUSSIA TODAY. Russia has re-emerged as one of the world’s great powers. Click here for a live TV news feed on your computer, bringing you English-language, jargon-free, fast-paced coverage of global and Russian news from the new Russia Today channel.
You probably already know about CNN International, BBC World, and Al Jazeera. Russia Today, which also features culture, entertainment, and sports, is based in Moscow and is owned and operated by the TV Novosti division of Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti.
While it’s quite foolish to expect to see, say, criticism of Vladimir Putin on Russia Today, the channel is very interesting nonetheless. The NWN live link to RT does not constitute an endorsement of the channel’s views. It’s presented as an otherwise unavailable new media window.
** TRACK GLOBAL AND U.S. ENERGY PRICES IN NEAR REAL TIME VIA BLOOMBERG ENERGY MARKET WATCH. Crude oil trading around $96 per barrel.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
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No rap music. lol
No rap music. lol
Cal won! 42-36 over Air Force, coming from 21 back after Tedford finally put Kevin Riley at quarterback. He should have played the last 5 games. The Armed Forces Bowl, woo-hoo!
That was one stubborn coach.
That was one stubborn coach.
Nope.
>Ann :
No rap music. lol
Dec 31, 2007 12:49 PM
The music video is great.
Bill:
Based on your above post (about the new and now Russia), your training, and the Charlie Wilson’s War clip, in all-seeing hindsight would it have been better to have kept bleeding the Soviets as “payback for Vietnam” or to come to the rescue as Wilson did? UBL’s 9/11 attack would only have been postponed, right?
M
Bill:
Based on your above post (about the new and now Russia), your training, and the Charlie Wilson’s War clip, in all-seeing hindsight would it have been better to have kept bleeding the Soviets as “payback for Vietnam” or to come to the rescue as Wilson did? UBL’s 9/11 attack would only have been postponed, right?
M
Not at all. Because it would not have ended the Soviet Union, a greater menace than Islamic jihadism.
Bin Laden had little involvement with the Afghan War. That’s all a big myth.
Nobody from Afghanistan participated in 9/11. No Stingers were used to shoot down jetliners. Etc.
The Snow Maiden can’t love because she has no heart so she gets a heart and it warms her icy body and she melts to nothing? That is one dark myth.
There’s a decided fatalistic streak in Russian culture.
… Also regarding Afghanistan. As the movie and the book make clear, we defeated the Soviets there and then proceeded to forget about the place.
That was the fundamental mistake which allowed the country to become a haven for jihadists.
Incidentally, bin laden didn’t want Afghanistan. It’s where he ended up after he left other places and after we screwed up getting him.
Bin Laden is actually not all that.
… Also regarding Afghanistan. As the movie and the book make clear, we defeated the Soviets there and then proceeded to forget about the place.
That was the fundamental mistake which allowed the country to become a haven for jihadists.
Incidentally, bin laden didn’t want Afghanistan. It’s where he ended up after he left other places and after we screwed up getting him.
Bin Laden is actually not all that.
To the anything but boring Bill Bradley: may 2008 be your best year ever. How about that for a challenge?
USC wins and, if the planets are aligned and the Godess Pele wishes it so, Hawaii takes the Sugar (Cane) Bowl!
Aloha 2007.
The MSM narrative may have taken a turn for the worse for Huckabee at just the wrong moment, after his stunt with the grand gesture of publicly pulling the negative anti-Romney ad – while nonetheless playing the ad for the press and hoping they’d pick it up and spread it.
I am afraid Mr. Hickabee is too much the Gaffe-a-Matic. Here is to a great new year!
I am afraid Mr. Hickabee is too much the Gaffe-a-Matic. Here is to a great new year!
I am afraid Mr. Hickabee is too much the Gaffe-a-Matic. Here is to a great new year!
Sorry for the double -posting.
Sorry for the double -posting.
Sorry for the double -posting.
Oh boy, that’s a BIG lead for OBAMA!
Happy New Year!
Bill,
Thank you for all you’ve done for us in 2007. Here’s to an even better 2008.
Obama 7 over Clinton? Is that big?
well it is going on 2:20 pm here in London. we began stirring around noon after a series of all night parties…a formal dinner at a private home where we watched the (fatalistic) Russians ring in a rousing NEW YEAR IN MOSCOW Red square…then we all chnahed closthes and went to see the fireworks over the river abd heard BIG ben ring in our new year. then another breakfast party at a private home where we watched new york ring in the new year at 5 am our time…\I just left mey favorite strabucks in Mayfair and have been given the difficult task of comming over to the hotel where the young people in our party are at…i was worried about getting them moving but guy pal who is very wise said just say one word HARROD’S …IT WORKED! they are up and hopefully getting ready…in any event everyone should read the \london times today which has an article that asserts BHUTTO WAS HANDING OVER A DOSSIER TO SPECTER AND KENNEDY ON us link to poll rigging of the upcoming election the day she was shot…i began reading parts of the article to guy pal as internatl politics are important to what he does 9HEDGE FUNDS and all he said was well brace yourselF darling 2008 IS THE CHINESE NEW YEAR OF THE RAT…. HAPPY NY TO NWN….
well it is going on 2:20 pm here in London. we began stirring around noon after a series of all night parties…a formal dinner at a private home where we watched the (fatalistic) Russians ring in a rousing NEW YEAR IN MOSCOW Red square…then we all chnahed closthes and went to see the fireworks over the river abd heard BIG ben ring in our new year. then another breakfast party at a private home where we watched new york ring in the new year at 5 am our time…\I just left mey favorite strabucks in Mayfair and have been given the difficult task of comming over to the hotel where the young people in our party are at…i was worried about getting them moving but guy pal who is very wise said just say one word HARROD’S …IT WORKED! they are up and hopefully getting ready…in any event everyone should read the \london times today which has an article that asserts BHUTTO WAS HANDING OVER A DOSSIER TO SPECTER AND KENNEDY ON us link to poll rigging of the upcoming election the day she was shot…i began reading parts of the article to guy pal as internatl politics are important to what he does 9HEDGE FUNDS and all he said was well brace yourselF darling 2008 IS THE CHINESE NEW YEAR OF THE RAT…. HAPPY NY TO NWN….
After emerging from his warm bed, making coffee and reading the newspaper, Kandy Kid logged onto NWN for the first time in 2008 to find all right with the world – my quick fingered friend Jonathan Hemlock is still double posting.
How about those Cal Bears?? I nearly turned the game off at 21-0, unwilling to let the torturous details ruin my holiday cheer. Yet Riley’s hot arm replaced Longshore and the Bears returned to first half of the season form. I actually look forward to using my season tickets next year.
While the Capitol hallways are full of whispers about the inevitable leadership changes after Proposition 93 loses, the mainstream media is just waking up to the issue. In terms of timing, it looks like Darrell Steinberg will let Senator Carjack Perata serve out the year, but the wanna-be Assembly Democrats have less patience, not wanting another candidate to seize the ring first.
The real question is why anyone would want to start off their leadership by negotiating the evisceration of budgets important to their key constituencies. Yet sometimes the lure of power, and Louis Vitton shopping trips, overcomes logic.
You’ve got a bad hangover. lol
Happy New Year!
HNY Solon. I had the 2004 Stags Leap Fay cab last night at Ella’s. It was great. Randall Selland has done a wonderful job with that space and it was a nice adult crowd closing out 2007.
Ann, my only hangover is the fear that hardball interest group politics and petty personal ambitions will drive me to heavier drinking this year. Of course the ugly conflicts should provide a rich vein of subjects for NWN in 2008.
HNY Solon. I had the 2004 Stags Leap Fay cab last night at Ella’s. It was great. Randall Selland has done a wonderful job with that space and it was a nice adult crowd closing out 2007.
Ann, my only hangover is the fear that hardball interest group politics and petty personal ambitions will drive me to heavier drinking this year. Of course the ugly conflicts should provide a rich vein of subjects for NWN in 2008.
KK,
The Executive Chef at Ella’s is the son of my doctor! I’ve yet to make it there, but hope to soon.
I enjoyed a wonderful Rombauer Zinfandel. Great wine that will find it’s way into my household often.
My friend, go easy this day. Sit back and enjoy USC’s victory!
Rombauer Zin?
Go SC!
Indeed.
>Sacramento Solon :
Happy New Year!
Jan 1, 2008 10:09 AM
Good for Cal. Tedford finally got out of his Oregon State funk and made the right move.
As for the other stuff. In a term limits era, caucus leadership fights are not so interesting. Caucuses are run by their hardest core interest groups — the ultra-government faction for the Dems and the anti-government faction for the Reps — leavened only by the intrusion of outside political reality.
Remember that Nunez began as a hardcore labor/left hyperpartisan.
>Kandy Kid :
How about those Cal Bears?? I nearly turned the game off at 21-0, unwilling to let the torturous details ruin my holiday cheer. Yet Riley’s hot arm replaced Longshore and the Bears returned to first half of the season form. I actually look forward to using my season tickets next year.
While the Capitol hallways are full of whispers about the inevitable leadership changes after Proposition 93 loses, the mainstream media is just waking up to the issue.
Good for Cal. Tedford finally got out of his Oregon State funk and made the right move.
As for the other stuff. In a term limits era, caucus leadership fights are not so interesting. Caucuses are run by their hardest core interest groups — the ultra-government faction for the Dems and the anti-government faction for the Reps — leavened only by the intrusion of outside political reality.
Remember that Nunez began as a hardcore labor/left hyperpartisan.
>Kandy Kid :
How about those Cal Bears?? I nearly turned the game off at 21-0, unwilling to let the torturous details ruin my holiday cheer. Yet Riley’s hot arm replaced Longshore and the Bears returned to first half of the season form. I actually look forward to using my season tickets next year.
While the Capitol hallways are full of whispers about the inevitable leadership changes after Proposition 93 loses, the mainstream media is just waking up to the issue.
Who knows what Bhutto was handing over or about to before she was killed. Who knows why she chose to stand up in her sunroof with her SUV stopped in a choke point. That was actually quite stupid of her.
>BARBARA :
well it is going on 2:20 pm here in London. we began stirring around noon after a series of all night parties…a formal dinner at a private home where we watched the (fatalistic) Russians ring in a rousing NEW YEAR IN MOSCOW Red square…then we all chnahed closthes and went to see the fireworks over the river abd heard BIG ben ring in our new year. then another breakfast party at a private home where we watched new york ring in the new year at 5 am our time…\I just left mey favorite strabucks in Mayfair and have been given the difficult task of comming over to the hotel where the young people in our party are at…i was worried about getting them moving but guy pal who is very wise said just say one word HARROD’S …IT WORKED! they are up and hopefully getting ready…in any event everyone should read the \london times today which has an article that asserts BHUTTO WAS HANDING OVER A DOSSIER TO SPECTER AND KENNEDY ON us link to poll rigging of the upcoming election the day she was shot…i began reading parts of the article to guy pal as internatl politics are important to what he does 9HEDGE FUNDS and all he said was well brace yourselF darling 2008 IS THE CHINESE NEW YEAR OF THE RAT…. HAPPY NY TO NWN….
Jan 1, 2008 06:29 AM
If it’s accurate, it’s huge.
>Jonas Blane :
Obama 7 over Clinton? Is that big?
Jan 1, 2008 06:10 AM
You’re very welcome.
>larry :
Bill,
Thank you for all you’ve done for us in 2007. Here’s to an even better 2008.
Perhaps. Happy New Year!
>Jonathan Hemlock :
I am afraid Mr. Hickabee is too much the Gaffe-a-Matic. Here is to a great new year!
Dec 31, 2007 06:40 PM
The Iowa press, actually, seems to be playing it straight so far.
>Wilbur :
The MSM narrative may have taken a turn for the worse for Huckabee at just the wrong moment, after his stunt with the grand gesture of publicly pulling the negative anti-Romney ad – while nonetheless playing the ad for the press and hoping they’d pick it up and spread it.
Dec 31, 2007 04:43 PM
The Iowa press, actually, seems to be playing it straight so far.
>Wilbur :
The MSM narrative may have taken a turn for the worse for Huckabee at just the wrong moment, after his stunt with the grand gesture of publicly pulling the negative anti-Romney ad – while nonetheless playing the ad for the press and hoping they’d pick it up and spread it.
Dec 31, 2007 04:43 PM
Thank you very much. 2008 will have to go quite a ways to best 2003.
>James- The Historian :
To the anything but boring Bill Bradley: may 2008 be your best year ever. How about that for a challenge?
USC wins and, if the planets are aligned and the Godess Pele wishes it so, Hawaii takes the Sugar (Cane) Bowl!
Aloha 2007.
Dec 31, 2007 03:52 PM
Bill Bradley :
Rombauer Zin?
Go SC!
USC 42-10 early in the 4th, good times for California teams.
I am back from visiting relatives in Washington state (Spokane & Gleed). Holiday travel is such a pain. UGH! My Mom sends her best and I always share with her the dirt I glean from this blog and the insightful comments.
Well, our yes on Prop 91 unfunded grassroots campaign scored its first coup yesterday: a debate with the proponent (who urges a no vote) on the local NPR station. Hell, the thing may even pass. At least we’ll try to have some fun this coming year.
http://www.socata.net/gm/archives/00000056.shtml
Finished reading the King of California, great book on a cotton growing dynasty in central California. And now I am working on Prof. Steve Erie’s dense but interesting work Globalizing L.A. on the history of the LA/Long Beach port complex and LAX and their role in making L.A. among the great cities of the world.
Pakistan… What a mess. As bad or worse than Iraq. And Afghanistan is still unstable. Why anyone would want to run for President and clean up Bush’ multiple failures is beyond me.
Oh, well, best wishes to all in the new year.
I am back from visiting relatives in Washington state (Spokane & Gleed). Holiday travel is such a pain. UGH! My Mom sends her best and I always share with her the dirt I glean from this blog and the insightful comments.
Well, our yes on Prop 91 unfunded grassroots campaign scored its first coup yesterday: a debate with the proponent (who urges a no vote) on the local NPR station. Hell, the thing may even pass. At least we’ll try to have some fun this coming year.
http://www.socata.net/gm/archives/00000056.shtml
Finished reading the King of California, great book on a cotton growing dynasty in central California. And now I am working on Prof. Steve Erie’s dense but interesting work Globalizing L.A. on the history of the LA/Long Beach port complex and LAX and their role in making L.A. among the great cities of the world.
Pakistan… What a mess. As bad or worse than Iraq. And Afghanistan is still unstable. Why anyone would want to run for President and clean up Bush’ multiple failures is beyond me.
Oh, well, best wishes to all in the new year.
USC, baby! The football team’s almost as good as the communication school.
Good effort by the Trojans.