Dismissing the Pakistani government’s remaining shards of
credibility, Hillary Clinton wants an international investigation of
the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
It’s frequently said that the fog of war obscures military operations. This time, the fog of merriment is obscuring political operations. Because the good folks of those most unrepresentative of American states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are hell-bent on having their states first as usual in the presidential nomination fights, we’re conducting the height of the first-in-the-nation contest of Iowa during the height of the holiday season. It’s bizarre.
As a result of this lunacy, we may not have a valid statistical read on the race in either party until the morning of the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd. And even then, the data will be flawed and fragmentary. Add to that the unknown impact of the spectacular assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in our now obviously teetering frontline ally in the Terror War.
Barack Obama’s new ad for the New Hampshire primary, where
he has erased Hillary Clinton’s longstanding lead.
It’s strange enough that Iowa — where the two parties are under the disproportionate influence of, respectively, public employee unions and peace activists and religious fundamentalists — plays such a winnowing role in presidential politics. Now the actual contest in Iowa is being preceded by what are essentially two five-day weekends in a row, first over Christmas, and now over New Year’s. Weekend polling is always highly suspect. Just who do you suppose is going to take the time, or even be around, to answer a pollster’s questions on a weekend night? Many campaigns don’t even bother to poll on weekends for that reason, and when it is done, the numbers are always regarded with suspicion.
Add to that the unprecedented holiday factor — when Iowa was first in the presidential nomination contests of 1984, it took place on February 20th — and it’s a formular for rampant confusion.
So we have polls which show Hillary Clinton, the longtime supposedly overwhelming frontrunner, running first. Or second. Or third. Same with her two polished opponents, Barack Obama, who has by far the best challenger operation and is the best orator in the country, and John Edwards, who was usually the best in the debates.
John Edwards decries the “corporate greed” of the Washington
establishment in this new TV ad.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has a big lead in one recent poll, while Mitt Romney has a big lead in another recent poll. The only thing that’s sure is that whomever finishes third is likely to be far back. That could be Fred Thompson, who scraped together some funds to put up a TV ad as he tries to jump start his campaign. That could be John McCain, who is coming on like gangbusters in New Hampshire again, and could surprise in Iowa with the renewed primacy of geopolitics with the Pakistani crisis. (I’ve been writing all year on New West Notes that Pakistan is a major accident waiting to happen.) It might even be Ron Paul. It probably won’t be Rudy Giuliani, the erstwhile frontrunner who will be in Florida on the night of the Iowa caucuses.
The candidates continue their barnstorming across icy Iowa. The weather forecast for January 3rd is clear and cold.
The Edwards strategy is predicated on the reduced universe of proven caucus-goers. Obama and Clinton are each looking to expand that. In Obama’s case, with young people. In Clinton’s case, with older women. Each is probably advantaged by (relatively) good weather.
Mike Huckabee counters Mitt Romney’s blizzard of attacks on him.
Meanwhile, the Republicans keep up their five-sided game of pool across two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, with Fred Thompson trying to restart his car and Rudy Giuliani trying to hold on while the three candidates of the moment — Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and John McCain — all duke it out.
Actually, Romney is forced to fight two formidable foes in two states that are absolutely key to his hopes. McCain is coming on in New Hampshire, where he has all the newspaper endorsements — including the neighboring conservative Boston Herald and liberal Boston Globe, Romney’s key papers when he was Massachusetts governor — and the two biggest papers in New Hampshire, including the famously conservative Manchester Union Leader, issuing “anti-endorsements” of Romney. He’s even ducked over to Iowa for a few days of campaigning. Though he’s done little there, there’s a chance for a surprise third behind Huckabee and Romney.
But Romney has the resources that Huckabee and McCain lack, and is a polished campaigner.
Fighting John McCain’s resurgence as well as the loss of his Iowa
lead to Huckabee, Mitt Romney is running this new TV attack ad.
The polls are very awkward now. I’m not convinced that any poll taken over the Christmas holidays is valid. In New Hampshire, Obama has closed up on Clinton, making that race, in Clinton’s long thought firewall state, a dead heat.
Obama and Hillary are criss-crossing Iowa. So is former President Bill Clinton, campaigning all-out now as a virtual doppelganger candidate to his wife, the original campaign conception of using him sparingly now completely out the window.
Hillary is also benefiting from two “independent” expenditures. One on her behalf, by the big public employees union, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME). That’s hitting Obama for not advocating the requirement that all American buy health insurance. Ironically, Obama’s position is the same as many of Clinton’s backers. The other help for Hillary comes in the form of a so-called “527” committee, after the government code section. This group, headed by John Edwards’ former campaign manager, is taking unlimited contributions and spending on Edwards’ behalf. And also attacking Obama. Of course, if she is to lose Iowa, the Clintons would vastly prefer an Edwards win to an Obama win, reasoning that Edwards is in much weaker shape to capitalize in New Hampshire and other states.
John McCain responds to Romney’s attacks by calling him a
flip-flopper on immigration in this new TV ad.
On the Republican side of the presidential race, this stark reminder of the centrality of security issues in a challenging, interconnected world should help John McCain. Rudy Giuliani wants it to help him, but unlike McCain, he hasn’t been to Waziristan, now Al Qaeda’s safe haven, and doesn’t know President Musharraf or the Bhuttos. On the Democratic side, one might think it would help Hillary Clinton. It would certainly help Bill Clinton. But a recent New York Times feature sharply undercut her claims of expertise in the field, and it’s unclear whether the extremely high profile taken of late in her campaign by the former president reassures people about the couple, or underscores the notion that he is the superior in the relationship.
It’s not helping Mike Huckabee, who is proving to be more than a bit gaffe-prone. He already had his hands full with the freespending Romney’s barrage of attacks, on the air and in the mail.
While the Republicans flail away at one another, the Democrats have more settled campaigns, and Hillary’s theme is that she is the security candidate. Security as in she’s been there and, if not done it, been around it, and security in the sense of being the known quantity. Obama’s theme is that he is the turn-the-page candidate, not stuck in the debates of the 1990s and free from Hillary’s past alignments with Bush policy. Edwards is running as the tailored populist, always a smooth and strong performer in front of the microphone, he is now an increasingly fiery one. …
You can read the rest of Monday Morning Quarterback on PJ Media.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum.
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| Comments (0) |
McCain looks like the strongest of your Presidents.
McCain looks like the strongest of your Presidents.
The Reeps are killing each other!
The Reeps are killing each other!
Very good stuff, Mr. B.
Hillary sounds flat to me. Is she ill?
Obama looks and sounds the best of the Democrats. He is the most vague sounding.
Edwards is good but he is too slick.
Obama looks and sounds the best of the Democrats. He is the most vague sounding.
Edwards is good but he is too slick.
Huckabee sounds very defensive. Romney is very offensive. I don’t like either of them.
McCain looks okay, not great. Whatever happened to Rudy? What about Fred?
All these polls are invalid. All the stories based on them are invalid.
Giuliani disappeared, poof, like that.
Excellent article, you are making me think. Will Bloomberg enter this race? I did hear Gary Hart’s name on the morning cable news. Are there more candidates on the horizon?
Excellent article, you are making me think. Will Bloomberg enter this race? I did hear Gary Hart’s name on the morning cable news. Are there more candidates on the horizon?
Thanks.
Yeah, that meeting is at the U of Oklahoma. I’m a bit skeptical, having been down that road before.
Most political stories are irrelevant.
>Capitol Boy :
All these polls are invalid. All the stories based on them are invalid.
Giuliani disappeared, poof, like that.
Dec 31, 2007 09:06 AM
Rudy has nothing golng in Iowa and New Hampshire. His polls nationally and in big states have slumped.
>Jonas Blane :
McCain looks okay, not great. Whatever happened to Rudy? What about Fred?
Dec 31, 2007 08:46 AM
Rudy has nothing golng in Iowa and New Hampshire. His polls nationally and in big states have slumped.
>Jonas Blane :
McCain looks okay, not great. Whatever happened to Rudy? What about Fred?
Dec 31, 2007 08:46 AM
Can we all get real here: without Bill Hillary would be nobody. How does being married to the right ‘partner’ qualify someone to be President? Should we be considering Laura Bush?
As to the Iowa caucuses: it is an excercise in political influence and manipulation not the one person one vote secret ballot that is common to our democracy, leaving the entire process open to being corrupted.
For example if memory serves, it was in the back room deals of the Iowa caucus process where Gore undercut the Bradley run for President. At the time I found that illustrative of the type of candidate Gore was willing to be in order to “just win baby”.
Obama’s TV ad is pretty vague. His speech is better.
>Jonas Blane :
Obama looks and sounds the best of the Democrats. He is the most vague sounding.
Edwards is good but he is too slick.
Dec 31, 2007 08:18 AM
She’s been under the weather.
>Jonas Blane :
Hillary sounds flat to me. Is she ill?
Dec 31, 2007 08:03 AM
Back room deals in the Iowa caucuses? Uh, over what?
It’s not bean bag, you know, and Cousin Bill was a subpar candidate.
>James- The Historian :
Can we all get real here: without Bill Hillary would be nobody. How does being married to the right ‘partner’ qualify someone to be President? Should we be considering Laura Bush?
As to the Iowa caucuses: it is an excercise in political influence and manipulation not the one person one vote secret ballot that is common to our democracy, leaving the entire process open to being corrupted.
For example if memory serves, it was in the back room deals of the Iowa caucus process where Gore undercut the Bradley run for President. At the time I found that illustrative of the type of candidate Gore was willing to be in order to “just win baby”.
Dec 31, 2007 09:47 AM
Back room deals in the Iowa caucuses? Uh, over what?
It’s not bean bag, you know, and Cousin Bill was a subpar candidate.
>James- The Historian :
Can we all get real here: without Bill Hillary would be nobody. How does being married to the right ‘partner’ qualify someone to be President? Should we be considering Laura Bush?
As to the Iowa caucuses: it is an excercise in political influence and manipulation not the one person one vote secret ballot that is common to our democracy, leaving the entire process open to being corrupted.
For example if memory serves, it was in the back room deals of the Iowa caucus process where Gore undercut the Bradley run for President. At the time I found that illustrative of the type of candidate Gore was willing to be in order to “just win baby”.
Dec 31, 2007 09:47 AM
Thank you.
>Sacramento Solon :
Very good stuff, Mr. B.
Dec 31, 2007 07:47 AM
They could sell tickets to watch the Putin-McCain summits.
>sergei :
McCain looks like the strongest of your Presidents.
Dec 31, 2007 02:41 AM
Hillary can still win.
>Back room deals in the Iowa caucuses? Uh, over what?
It’s not bean bag, you know, and Cousin Bill was a subpar candidate.
Subpar candidate or subpar organization?
How about deals with unions and other interest groups who get their people to show up at a caucus? You mention that factor relative to the HRC campaign. Any give and take to get the endorsement and support?
James H,
I received a junk spam email attempting to discredit Hillary. Instead of influencing me, it makes me mad. I consider a Senator/First Lady/Lawyer as having qualifying experience to run the country. Is this a female hate issue rather than a political issue?
James H,
I received a junk spam email attempting to discredit Hillary. Instead of influencing me, it makes me mad. I consider a Senator/First Lady/Lawyer as having qualifying experience to run the country. Is this a female hate issue rather than a political issue?
I think Hillary’s expertise on geopolitics, in particular, is significantly less than advertised, but greater than her detractors would have it.
He was a subpar candidate. Boring.
What you are calling backroom deals with unions is standard politics with every politician and every interest group in both parties.
>James- The Historian :
>Back room deals in the Iowa caucuses? Uh, over what?
It’s not bean bag, you know, and Cousin Bill was a subpar candidate.
Subpar candidate or subpar organization?
How about deals with unions and other interest groups who get their people to show up at a caucus? You mention that factor relative to the HRC campaign. Any give and take to get the endorsement and support?
Dec 31, 2007 11:22 AM
Huckabee quote:
…A wife is to submit graciously to the servant leadership of her husband…
LOL…Good Luck with that dude:)
Huckabee quote:
…A wife is to submit graciously to the servant leadership of her husband…
LOL…Good Luck with that dude:)
Where’d he say that? What’s the servant leadership of the husband?
He said it several years ago at a Southern Baptist Convention convention….
“In a television interview, the ordained Southern Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor made no apologies for the 1998 comment made at a Southern Baptist Convention meeting in Salt Lake City.”
Here’s the link:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jVvZcPSHL9_XQajF5pZYfSx-uyNwD8TS1K380
>I received a junk spam email attempting to discredit Hillary. Instead of influencing me, it makes me mad. I consider a Senator/First Lady/Lawyer as having qualifying experience to run the country. Is this a female hate issue rather than a political issue?
Carole W:
You went off the deep end with the “female hate” comment. Save your energy, there is no need to get emotional about HRC.
The fact is she has few, if any, qualifications to be POTUS. By the way she is not alone in that category. There are male candidates right along with her who have zero executive experience or credentials as well.
I am not emotional but, thank you for making my point.
I am not emotional but, thank you for making my point.
James,
“There are male candidates right along with her who have zero executive experience or credentials as well.”
So, who???
Sacto,
Excuse me while I go sweep the kitchen, chop the wood, change the diapers, wash the dishes, knit my husbands socks and shave my legs. I will perform these wifely tasks barefooted:)
…with my two front teeth missing;}
Carole W:
Okay. But, please be quick about it!
Happy New Year!!!!!!
Yes sir…Happy New Year:)
Yes sir…Happy New Year:)
Mr. McCain is the only electable Republican in the bunch.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
Sorry for the double posting.
After emerging from his warm bed, making coffee and reading the newspaper, Kandy Kid logged onto NWN for the first time in 2008 to find all right with the world – my quick fingered friend Jonathan Hemlock is still double posting.
How about those Cal Bears?? I nearly turned the game off at 21-0, unwilling to let the torturous details ruin my holiday cheer. Yet Riley’s hot arm replaced Longshore and the Bears returned to first half of the season form. I actually look forward to using my season tickets next year.
While the Capitol hallways are full of whispers about the inevitable leadership changes after Proposition 93 loses, the mainstream media is just waking up to the issue. In terms of timing, it looks like Darrell Steinberg will let Senator Carjack Perata serve out the year, but the wanna-be Assembly Democrats have less patience, not wanting another candidate to seize the ring first.
The real question is why anyone would want to start off their leadership by negotiating the evisceration of budgets important to their key constituencies. Yet sometimes the lure of power, and Louis Vitton shopping trips, overcomes logic.
Good Presidential Campaign Insights. lol
Good Presidential Campaign Insights. lol
He was hung over, rememember?