Dismissing the Pakistani government’s remaining shards of
credibility, Hillary Clinton wants an international investigation of
the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
It’s frequently said that the fog of war obscures military operations. This time, the fog of merriment is obscuring political operations. Because the good folks of those most unrepresentative of American states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are hell-bent on having their states first as usual in the presidential nomination fights, we’re conducting the height of the first-in-the-nation contest of Iowa during the height of the holiday season. It’s bizarre.
As a result of this lunacy, we may not have a valid statistical read on the race in either party until the morning of the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd. And even then, the data will be flawed and fragmentary. Add to that the unknown impact of the spectacular assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in our now obviously teetering frontline ally in the Terror War.
Barack Obama’s new ad for the New Hampshire primary, where
he has erased Hillary Clinton’s longstanding lead.
It’s strange enough that Iowa — where the two parties are under the disproportionate influence of, respectively, public employee unions and peace activists and religious fundamentalists — plays such a winnowing role in presidential politics. Now the actual contest in Iowa is being preceded by what are essentially two five-day weekends in a row, first over Christmas, and now over New Year’s. Weekend polling is always highly suspect. Just who do you suppose is going to take the time, or even be around, to answer a pollster’s questions on a weekend night? Many campaigns don’t even bother to poll on weekends for that reason, and when it is done, the numbers are always regarded with suspicion.
Add to that the unprecedented holiday factor — when Iowa was first in the presidential nomination contests of 1984, it took place on February 20th — and it’s a formular for rampant confusion.
So we have polls which show Hillary Clinton, the longtime supposedly overwhelming frontrunner, running first. Or second. Or third. Same with her two polished opponents, Barack Obama, who has by far the best challenger operation and is the best orator in the country, and John Edwards, who was usually the best in the debates.
John Edwards decries the “corporate greed” of the Washington
establishment in this new TV ad.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has a big lead in one recent poll, while Mitt Romney has a big lead in another recent poll. The only thing that’s sure is that whomever finishes third is likely to be far back. That could be Fred Thompson, who scraped together some funds to put up a TV ad as he tries to jump start his campaign. That could be John McCain, who is coming on like gangbusters in New Hampshire again, and could surprise in Iowa with the renewed primacy of geopolitics with the Pakistani crisis. (I’ve been writing all year on New West Notes that Pakistan is a major accident waiting to happen.) It might even be Ron Paul. It probably won’t be Rudy Giuliani, the erstwhile frontrunner who will be in Florida on the night of the Iowa caucuses.
The candidates continue their barnstorming across icy Iowa. The weather forecast for January 3rd is clear and cold.
The Edwards strategy is predicated on the reduced universe of proven caucus-goers. Obama and Clinton are each looking to expand that. In Obama’s case, with young people. In Clinton’s case, with older women. Each is probably advantaged by (relatively) good weather.
Mike Huckabee counters Mitt Romney’s blizzard of attacks on him.
Meanwhile, the Republicans keep up their five-sided game of pool across two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, with Fred Thompson trying to restart his car and Rudy Giuliani trying to hold on while the three candidates of the moment — Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and John McCain — all duke it out.
Actually, Romney is forced to fight two formidable foes in two states that are absolutely key to his hopes. McCain is coming on in New Hampshire, where he has all the newspaper endorsements — including the neighboring conservative Boston Herald and liberal Boston Globe, Romney’s key papers when he was Massachusetts governor — and the two biggest papers in New Hampshire, including the famously conservative Manchester Union Leader, issuing “anti-endorsements” of Romney. He’s even ducked over to Iowa for a few days of campaigning. Though he’s done little there, there’s a chance for a surprise third behind Huckabee and Romney.
But Romney has the resources that Huckabee and McCain lack, and is a polished campaigner.
Fighting John McCain’s resurgence as well as the loss of his Iowa
lead to Huckabee, Mitt Romney is running this new TV attack ad.
The polls are very awkward now. I’m not convinced that any poll taken over the Christmas holidays is valid. In New Hampshire, Obama has closed up on Clinton, making that race, in Clinton’s long thought firewall state, a dead heat.
Obama and Hillary are criss-crossing Iowa. So is former President Bill Clinton, campaigning all-out now as a virtual doppelganger candidate to his wife, the original campaign conception of using him sparingly now completely out the window.
Hillary is also benefiting from two “independent” expenditures. One on her behalf, by the big public employees union, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME). That’s hitting Obama for not advocating the requirement that all American buy health insurance. Ironically, Obama’s position is the same as many of Clinton’s backers. The other help for Hillary comes in the form of a so-called “527” committee, after the government code section. This group, headed by John Edwards’ former campaign manager, is taking unlimited contributions and spending on Edwards’ behalf. And also attacking Obama. Of course, if she is to lose Iowa, the Clintons would vastly prefer an Edwards win to an Obama win, reasoning that Edwards is in much weaker shape to capitalize in New Hampshire and other states.
John McCain responds to Romney’s attacks by calling him a
flip-flopper on immigration in this new TV ad.
On the Republican side of the presidential race, this stark reminder of the centrality of security issues in a challenging, interconnected world should help John McCain. Rudy Giuliani wants it to help him, but unlike McCain, he hasn’t been to Waziristan, now Al Qaeda’s safe haven, and doesn’t know President Musharraf or the Bhuttos. On the Democratic side, one might think it would help Hillary Clinton. It would certainly help Bill Clinton. But a recent New York Times feature sharply undercut her claims of expertise in the field, and it’s unclear whether the extremely high profile taken of late in her campaign by the former president reassures people about the couple, or underscores the notion that he is the superior in the relationship.
It’s not helping Mike Huckabee, who is proving to be more than a bit gaffe-prone. He already had his hands full with the freespending Romney’s barrage of attacks, on the air and in the mail.
While the Republicans flail away at one another, the Democrats have more settled campaigns, and Hillary’s theme is that she is the security candidate. Security as in she’s been there and, if not done it, been around it, and security in the sense of being the known quantity. Obama’s theme is that he is the turn-the-page candidate, not stuck in the debates of the 1990s and free from Hillary’s past alignments with Bush policy. Edwards is running as the tailored populist, always a smooth and strong performer in front of the microphone, he is now an increasingly fiery one. …
You can read the rest of Monday Morning Quarterback on PJ Media.
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Perhaps so.
>Jonathan Hemlock :
Mr. McCain is the only electable Republican in the bunch.
Dec 31, 2007 06:47 PM
All that stuff done yet?
>carole w :
Sacto,
Excuse me while I go sweep the kitchen, chop the wood, change the diapers, wash the dishes, knit my husbands socks and shave my legs. I will perform these wifely tasks barefooted:)
…with my two front teeth missing;}
Dec 31, 2007 04:03 PM
All that stuff done yet?
>carole w :
Sacto,
Excuse me while I go sweep the kitchen, chop the wood, change the diapers, wash the dishes, knit my husbands socks and shave my legs. I will perform these wifely tasks barefooted:)
…with my two front teeth missing;}
Dec 31, 2007 04:03 PM
Happy New Year!
>Sacramento Solon :
Carole W:
Okay. But, please be quick about it!
Happy New Year!!!!!!
Dec 31, 2007 04:08 PM
Happy New Year everyone!
I am hearing rumors of a 2-4 feet of new snow fall this weekend, in the Sierras! Yeah!
Two to four FEET of snow?!
Two to four FEET of snow?!
I hearing Sacramento will get somewhere between 2 & 5 inches of rain between Thursday and Sunday. Also suppose to have high winds Thursday and Friday.
Wax your skis baby, it’s time for a good old fashion Sierra snow dump! The SO Cal mountains are going to be winter white too!
Living as close to the Sacramento River as I do, hope your don’t mean water skis! Also strange to walk a block from where I live, look west and see the docked boats looking down on me!
Perhaps this one series of storms will provide us will enough for the remainder of the season.
Sacto,
SNOW SKIING!
This weekend we have the South Series Giant Slalom at Snow Summit. When it dumps the white stuff…it is so pretty.
It is time to put your racing skis on:)
Sacto,
SNOW SKIING!
This weekend we have the South Series Giant Slalom at Snow Summit. When it dumps the white stuff…it is so pretty.
It is time to put your racing skis on:)
Just watched local weather…they are calling for 2-4 feet of snow in TWO days. Also saying winds will be around 80 mph. Hope it eases off for the weekend.
I love snow!
You should really love with weekend.
Sounds wild.
Sounds wild.
Carole-
>”I am not emotional but, thank you for making my point.
”
Glad to hear we are on the same page. I fully support the idea that any cadidate, male or female, without executive experience is not qualified to be POTUS.
On this dangerous planet placing a person without any practical expertise into a position as powerful and influential as POTUS is irresponsible. The Presidency is not an entry level position.
Good to know that we agree.
Incidentally, NWN hit 47,000 comments some time in the past week.